2020 Predictions

[value_investor]

Just read this on the Herald, and would be interested to get your opinions on what could happen in 2020 in terms of the market and wider economy. Things change so fast in a year and based on what happened in 2019, there's definitely things that could happen that catches everyone off guard.

In 2019, The trade deal surprised me, the lack of effect on the market of the trump impeachment. The local markets getting incredibly over valued as people chased yields due to the 50 basis point cut.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12292126

Here's mine for 2020:

- I see the markets chugging along to ATHs again, breaking the 13000 barrier on the local market with a lot of talk about a impending recession from naysayers. The thing that could change everything is if the reserve bank tries to increase rates which could be a thing later in the year.

- House prices keep hitting new records, kiwibuild continues to fail and the govt continues to struggle reigning things in. The commercial property stocks (GMT, PCT, KPG etc) continue growing and the retirement stocks continue to post record profits.

- Jacinda wins the election narrowly, despite Labour losing the common vote, they just about get it on seats. Their biggest asset is the fact Bridges is the leader on the opposite side. He resigns and Judith Collins takes them further right.

- Trade deal happens but US have to concede a bit to get it done. Trump wins the election, after Biden becomes the primary. Trump brings out all skeletons in Biden's closet and verbally destroys him on the campaign trial. Expect the US market to be more volatile in 2020 with the election swinging.

- Brexit continues to be in limbo for the UK and the country is more volatile during the year.

[Lease]

I expect stock market will continue to rise as Trump won't let it down because he needs to be re-elected.

Some fundamentals support stock rising: Solid US economy, strong corporate profit, good consumer sentiment, etc.

[Lola]

Just read this on the Herald, and would be interested to get your opinions on what could happen in 2020 in terms of the market and wider economy. Things change so fast in a year and based on what happened in 2019, there's definitely things that could happen that catches everyone off guard.

In 2019, The trade deal surprised me, the lack of effect on the market of the trump impeachment. The local markets getting incredibly over valued as people chased yields due to the 50 basis point cut.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12292126

Here's mine for 2020:

- I see the markets chugging along to ATHs again, breaking the 13000 barrier on the local market with a lot of talk about a impending recession from naysayers. The thing that could change everything is if the reserve bank tries to increase rates which could be a thing later in the year.

- House prices keep hitting new records, kiwibuild continues to fail and the govt continues to struggle reigning things in. The commercial property stocks (GMT, PCT, KPG etc) continue growing and the retirement stocks continue to post record profits.

- Jacinda wins the election narrowly, despite Labour losing the common vote, they just about get it on seats. Their biggest asset is the fact Bridges is the leader on the opposite side. He resigns and Judith Collins takes them further right.

- Trade deal happens but US have to concede a bit to get it done. Trump wins the election, after Biden becomes the primary. Trump brings out all skeletons in Biden's closet and verbally destroys him on the campaign trial. Expect the US market to be more volatile in 2020 with the election swinging.

- Brexit continues to be in limbo for the UK and the country is more volatile during the year.

Agree with most of this .....US Election the event to watch. Retirement stocks in NZ a no brainer winner. Wish we had more to pick from in that sector. New entrants would be welcomed.

[Beagle]

Dow to climb to over 33,000 next year. (Forward PE of their market is very reasonable at around 17.5 times) their consumer confidence is much stronger and as trade tensions ease global mega stocks should do very well. NASDAQ to also rise 20%+
ASX also likely to have a big 20%+ year in 2020 as their market is also quite inexpensive for where interest rates are and will be a major beneficiary of easing trade tensions.
NZX will struggle to gain 10% in 2020 as its already very expensive on an average forward PE of 29 and will be affected by gradually rising long term interest rates.
Utilities and REIT's to have a poor year due to gradually rising interest rates.
Bonds a very bad place to be as interest rates have already bottomed and will rise later in 2020.
Trump to get into power again, likewise Jacinda.
Retirement sector to have a big year in 2020, MET to disappear from the NZX early in 2020 as its taken over or merged.

[Sgt Pepper]

Some predictions
2020 budget will deliver a helicopter rebate drop of money to every individual tax payer between $500-$700.
Blis Technologies will be the star performer on the NZX .
TOWER will be taken over.
Port Otago will announce plans for IPO
UK Pound will makes significant gains on Forex market
Scottish Government will announce it intends to proceed with Independence referendum despite British government refusal to authorize
A scandal will arise concerning an New Zealand MP who will go to a certain overseas country and not return.

[Lewylewylewy]

Jacinda to win, trump to win, brexit will happen causing markets to fall then rise. Dow to rise

[bohemian]

I'm predicting Trump will be found guilty in the House of running an extortion racket on the Ukraine and the turd will be tossed on November the 3rd. That will have a temporary effect on the Dow but it will rebound quickly. MSFT Azure will be continue to be a huge wealth generator for shareholders.
Brexit will continue to be a festering debacle with the Northern Ireland issue being insoluble and Boris will quickly lose his moJo.
The Nats will win outright
The real share market gains will be in OZ with CSL and the retirement sector making the biggest.
Meanwhile Climate Change will continue to accelerate and deniers will become as rear as Labour supporters.

[Sideshow Bob]

A scandal will arise concerning an New Zealand MP who will go to a certain overseas country and not return.

Interesting prediction there Sarge!

[fungus pudding]

Interesting prediction there Sarge!

Yeah - who is she?

[whatsup]

Jacinda to win, trump to win, brexit will happen causing markets to fall then rise. Dow to rise

Ah, Little Miss Talkalot !

[pierre]

Some predictions
2020 budget will deliver a helicopter rebate drop of money to every individual tax payer between $500-$700.
Blis Technologies will be the star performer on the NZX .
TOWER will be taken over.
Port Otago will announce plans for IPO
UK Pound will makes significant gains on Forex market
Scottish Government will announce it intends to proceed with Independence referendum despite British government refusal to authorize
A scandal will arise concerning an New Zealand MP who will go to a certain overseas country and not return.

BLT making a bit of a move today at 5.1 and already up over 200% from a 52 week low of 1.6. I hope the Sarge's "star performer" prediction for 2020 comes true - another 200%+ gain or more for next year will be a fantastic outcome.

[Jaa]

Some predictions
TOWER will be taken over.


Probably right and about par for the course for the NZX. Just as a business is turning around and has years of steady growth in front of it. Someone could offer 30% more and long suffering shareholders will jump at it. Any guess who might be interested?

Alternatively, I predict Tower pays a 1 cent dividend and attracts more interest.

[value_investor]

Some predictions
2020 budget will deliver a helicopter rebate drop of money to every individual tax payer between $500-$700.
Blis Technologies will be the star performer on the NZX .
TOWER will be taken over.
Port Otago will announce plans for IPO
UK Pound will makes significant gains on Forex market
Scottish Government will announce it intends to proceed with Independence referendum despite British government refusal to authorize
A scandal will arise concerning an New Zealand MP who will go to a certain overseas country and not return.

A little bit spooky, you might know something overs don't right now. Perhaps a national MP in China?

[bull....]

i will probably over eat during the xmas period

[Sgt Pepper]

With Reserve Bank requiring higher capital ratios ANZ will announce partial share float in New Zealand.
Winston Peters will step down as NZ First leader in July
ACT will rise to 3% prior to the election
NZ General election will be held in August.
Tiwai Point smelter will stay open
Dunedin residential property will have the highest growth rate in NZ
NZ Navy will announce procurement plan for two ice breaker Naval vessels which will be based at Port Chalmers Dunedin
Donald Trump will easily win in November Presidential election
Democrats will capture both House of Representatives and the Senate

[horus1]

Any companyin denial of climate change or affected by it in a major way will decrease in value. Labour will win. A lot of cash will be released so the local economy will do well. Oil and gas Cos as well as those using coal will do badly . Stay away from FBU,Fonterra,and Genesis ,contact. Buy meridian, Mercury. Top pick is IFT as they are very well positioned for the changes coming.

[Balance]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/118413836/the-coming-decade-of-wealth-why-im-confident-were-heading-into-a-boom

Concurs with my own view that we have nothing to fear but fear itself when investing in 2020.

[Beagle]

Nice guy on CNBC this morning said if you take out the top 10 stocks of the S&P 500 according to their research the rest of the S&P is trading on just 16.5 times FY20 earnings. I would think a similar approach on the NZX50 would get you a somewhat higher figure. I think the US is very cheap for 10 year Govt stock at 1.9% and we are simply fair value.

A more benign trade environment and central bank support should be very supportive for world markets which should be supportive for our market but I think one has to stock pick very carefully because our index has had a huge year.

A decent amount of international diversification makes a lot of common sense to me going into the next decade after our market has run so hard and is trading at historically elevated level's. I use Barramundi and Marlin which takes care of FIF compliance and taxes for me and gives me a fabulous net PIE yield of 8%. I am expecting a huge year for the US markets in 2020.

[couta1]

A2 will continue to be a volatile stock and I wouldn't have it any other way. PS-It will hit $18 dollars plus in 2020.

[Pipi]

Sam Stubbs from Simplicity thinks we are well set for a boom 2020s

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/118413836/the-coming-decade-of-wealth-why-im-confident-were-heading-into-a-boom

[silu]

I predict I will finally get my hip replacement (not getting it yet because I'm under 50). That would be my Christmas & Birthday gift all rolled into one. To be again pain-free - what a joy that would be. Everything else is secondary.

[silu]

Sam Stubbs from Simplicity thinks we are well set for a boom 2020s

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/118413836/the-coming-decade-of-wealth-why-im-confident-were-heading-into-a-boom

Shows again why KiwiSaver is one of the most important policies over the last 25 years.

[Schrodinger]

Good to see you watching CNBC Beagle its hands down the best business channel.

[couta1]

I predict I will finally get my hip replacement (not getting it yet because I'm under 50). That would be my Christmas & Birthday gift all rolled into one. To be again pain-free - what a joy that would be. Everything else is secondary. I really hope you do as it must be awful to live with that constant pain, I'm the opposite with a knee with no cartilage left which has limited bend whilst walking ,yet I have no pain.

[beetills]

MCK/CDL to be subject of buyout
One of the big Aussie banks to sell off its nz operations
Unemployment and redundancies to increase
Sharesies to look at USA/AUS investing.

[see weed]

I predict I will finally get my hip replacement (not getting it yet because I'm under 50). That would be my Christmas & Birthday gift all rolled into one. To be again pain-free - what a joy that would be. Everything else is secondary.
Join the queue.There is two queues for this operation...the close queue and the far queue;). Ask your doctor for the close queue:t_up:. I predict I will get my hip replacement Feb. March 2020. And a2 will be $18.50c plus after half year results. Have a happy and drive safe Christmas:cool:.

[percy]

Join the queue.There is two queues for this operation...the close queue and the far queue;). Ask your doctor for the close queue:t_up:. I predict I will get my hip replacement Feb. March 2020. And a2 will be $18.50c plus after half year results. Have a happy and drive safe Christmas:cool:.

My doctor keeps telling me when mine needs to be replaced it will be replaced.
I said I would pay and go private.
No,when it needs to be replaced it will be.
Seems to be pretty good at present.Have increased my morning walk from 20 minutes a year ago, to over 60 minutes now.
Been careful not to lift anything heavy,and perhaps the Red Seal Glucosamine tablets really do work.
Even sleeping without pain.

[value_investor]

I can see another year of people waiting on the sidelines, not saying I believe in market timing but I've been hearing from analysts and just people in general since 2016 that the market is overvalued.

[Cadalac123]

BLT will go over 0.10c
IKE will go over 3$ and be the next SERKO and PLEXURE
MOA will undergo a significant transformation through expanding their new hospitality portfolio
EVO will successfully turnaround

[janner]

I've been hearing from analysts and just people in general since 2016 that the market is overvalued.

So you have only been listening from 2016 ?.

[value_investor]

So you have only been listening from 2016 ?.

I've been buying despite the fear keeping others on the sidelines..

[tim23]

Tower to be taken over and the management of VTL to buy out the company.

[couta1]

My doctor keeps telling me when mine needs to be replaced it will be replaced.
I said I would pay and go private.
No,when it needs to be replaced it will be.
Seems to be pretty good at present.Have increased my morning walk from 20 minutes a year ago, to over 60 minutes now.
Been careful not to lift anything heavy,and perhaps the Red Seal Glucosamine tablets really do work.
Even sleeping without pain. Take any specialists advice like you do advice on here with a large piece of rock salt, 7 yrs ago when I had an MRI and found out there was no cartilage left in my left knee the Orthopod said I shouldnt ski except maybe a half day a couple of times a season and not walk downhill etc. Since then I have been skiing about 20 days a year including some extreme heliskiing plus walking up and down hills and recently walked 1hr 20 mins in a 10k walking event. PS-Waiting patiently for a product called Cartiheal to become commercial to sort things out.PPS-Good on you for your exercise regime, impressive for one so young.

[Benny1]

Trump will get re-elected as will Tax-Cinda.
New enquiry into fuel prices while excise tax will be increased yet again.....and then again....
More plastic to be banned....
Lots of meetings and reports organised by the government...which will result in more reports and meetings.
Micheal Cullen to once again land a cushy job funded by the tax payer and get paid lots for producing bugger all....
New AIR boss will need more than 100 day's once he scratches the surface.!!
My stock picks for the 2020 competition will once again be proved to be utter rubbish !!!:eek2:

[carrom74]

My stock picks for the 2020 competition will once again be proved to be utter rubbish !!!:eek2:[/QUOTE]

Welcome to my world! You are not alone.

[CD_CHCH]

My stock picks for the 2020 competition will once again be proved to be utter rubbish !!!:eek2:

Welcome to my world! You are not alone.[/QUOTE]

It all depends on how you present the facts - for example telling people I'm currently in the top 200 for the 2019 competition sounds so much more impressive than admitting to being placed 174 out of 199 entries :)

[Anna Naum]

Anyone got the actual stock picks for 2020 Herald Brokers? URL does not include actual stock picks

[Oliver Mander]

Anyone got the actual stock picks for 2020 Herald Brokers? URL does not include actual stock picks

I have emailed the Herald. See if they come back with anything...

[RupertBear]

I have emailed the Herald. See if they come back with anything...

yes I finally decided to subscribe after every article I tried to look at during the year was behind the pay wall. I really wanted to see the Brokers picks and I couldnt believe it when even as a paid subscriber I couldnt see them :t_down:

[couta1]

From what I understand the standout pick is ATM followed by these stocks getting various ticks from brokers OCA/ARV(Sorry Beagle no SUM) Ebos/AFT/MFT/FPH/CNU/ZEL/MEL/CEN/KMD/VCT.

[Cadalac123]

Glad I entered ATM at $12 at the recent dip.. reminds me of buying serko at 3.30$ the day before it shot up

I'm amazed at the fascination with AFT. Are people banking on the pascomer trial shooting the shareprice up?

[Oliver Mander]

I have emailed the Herald. See if they come back with anything...

NZ Herald have replied, they will update the story to include the picks by broker.
Have also said they will include the "Sharetrader top 5" :-)! But I can only send them that on the 2nd obviously...

[peat]

Merry Christmas Stingebums

by Liam Dann

NZ Herald Business Editor at Large
liam.dann@nzherald.co.nz

@liamdann (https://www.twitter.com/@liamdann)

Let's be honest. Most of us thought the market in 2019 would be volatile and couldn't possibly continue the double-digit returns of the past several years. The fact that they weren't particularly volatile, and had the best year yet in this long bull run, is quite amazing. That doesn't mean things couldn't get more rocky in 2020 but it is also putting pressure on investors who've already taken a defensive stance. "In 2020 financial markets are facing a tug of war between weaker economic growth and a highly accommodative policy backdrop from central banks," says Mark Lister, head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners. "The two important elections that are looming in the latter months of the year could shape the path of financial markets both here and offshore," he says. "Both of these could be close, and the potential for policy change could be a key investment theme over the coming 12 months." "On a brighter note, we think the New Zealand economy is in reasonable shape," Lister says. "In addition, interest rates are exceptionally low, government spending is likely to provide further stimulus and business confidence has rebounded from the lows of late 2019."


Whatever happens on global markets, in the annual Herald Broker's Picks game the world is a simpler place - five picks, five companies that look well placed to thrive over the next 12 months, what could go wrong...

There's a diverse mix of stocks in the picks this year suggesting a positive outlook across a range of sectors. Perhaps unsurprisingly New Zealand's top-performing stock - a2 Milk which featured heavily in the 2019 picks, stands out again with five out of six brokers including it in the mix. Recent controversy with the sudden departure of chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka doesn't seem to have deterred investors. In fact despite slumping sharply on the morning of the announcement the stock was back trading above pre-departure levels within days. A high level of interest from Australian traders does make a2 quite volatile but broadly it has been on a stellar growth path for the past several years which makes it difficult to ignore. "The company still managed to grow its profits by 47 per cent and finish the year with a significant amount of cash on the balance sheet," Lister says.

"Risks around Chinese sales channels remain, while competition is also increasing. However, we remain confident about the company's future, particularly with regard to infant formula products. While ATM is an above-average proposition in terms of risk, the growth opportunity ahead more than offsets this." Beyond star performer a2, our brokers have picked a very broad spread of stocks for 2020Just five companies were picked twice, with the remainder of picks spread across 15 highly diverse companies. But the healthcare sector stood out among those that got two picks. Retirement village operator Oceania Healthcare has demographics on its side and has spent the last couple of years upgrading its facilities to reflect demand for premium independent-living units. Likewise rival Arvida also proved popular. "Arvida looks the best-value stock in this "hot sector" at the moment, with good and focused management," says MSL's Andrew McDouall. Ebos , picked by Craigs and Hamilton Hindin Greene, is another health care company, although in a very different space as a wholesale distributor of medical products. "We like the healthcare sector, given the backdrop of an ageing population and the resilience of healthcare products and services regardless of where we are in the economic cycle," says Lister. "We expect that to continue, with Ebos likely to seeing ongoing benefits from being the largest player in the sector." AFT Pharmaceuticals also got two picks. "[It] is an under-researched stock, whose management has been head down and performing," says McDouall. "Regulatory changes are also likely to boost longer-term product and revenue growth." Perennial investor favourite F&P Healthcare also got one pick this year (Hamilton Hindin Greene) rounding out the enthusiasm for the health sector. Transport and logistics company Mainfreight has two picks. Always a solid bet on the NZX with a long track record of growth and now a successful programme of international expansion.

Mainfreight reported one of the standout performances of the 2019 year with strong growth in operating earnings in the international regions it operates in. US earnings, for example, increased 43 per cent; Asia by 35 per cent and Europe by 37 per cent.Meridian Energy is another solid performer to get picked twice. "The dividend yield of more than 5 per cent is highly attractive, and Meridian offers the potential for long-term earnings growth," says Lister. On the energy front Contact , Z Energy and Infratil all get one pick each. Two normally defensive infrastructure stocks - Chorus and Vector - also get picks this year. McDouall says "continued strong connection growth, particularly in the greater Auckland area, a focus on future energy needs and behaviour understanding, means Vector is likely to lead the country in new energy solutions, and should get greater investment attention." Notable by their absence this year are retail stocks - perhaps reflecting the tough, competitive environment and tight margins. Australasian outdoor clothing company Kathmandu is the only retailer to get a nod this year, picked by Jarden.
The 2019 Results


The presence of a2 Milk (with a return of nearly 43 per cent) was almost ubiquitous in the 2019 picks meaning results were broadly strong across the board. The same could be said for the NZX-50 where a2 Milk is one of the top three stocks by market capitalisation. Ironically though, our ultimate winner this year has managed to top the pool without including a2 at all. MSL Capital (formerly McDouall Stuart) takes out this year's competition with a stellar total return of 55.6 per cent. Two picks paid off big time for MSL, technology company Plexure returned with a 219.1 per cent return and AFT Pharmaceuticals with return of 54.5 per cent. Mobile marketing company Plexure – formerly known as Vmob - had a breakthrough in April when fast-food giant McDonald's took a 10 per cent stake. Other solid picks for MSL included Freightways and Green Cross Health. Only software company Gentrack failed to fire for them.

10918


In second place this year was Craigs Investment Partners with a total return of 47.7 per cent. Craigs' picks were dominated by some of the NZX heavyweights including F&P Healthcare with a staggering 84.9 per cent gain for the period. In October it revised up its earnings forecast after receiving regulatory clearance to sell a new, full-face obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) mask in the United States, which is the biggest market for the product. It has also had a good year on the currency front with rate cuts pushing the kiwi below forecast levels and boosting its US dollar returns. Meridian and Mainfreight also proved top picks returning 54.8 per cent and 41.3 per cent respectively. Third place this year went to Hamilton Hindin Greene which included three of the big stocks mentioned above plus Infratil which achieved a 43.4 per cent return. It is notable that none of the participants came a cropper this year with negative returns. Last year's winner Foster Capital (formerly Vulcan) was at the back of the pack but their picks still delivered returns of 13.5 per cent. The Warehouse with a return of 49.3 per cent and hospitality investment firm Good Spirits delivered 54.4 per cent. Foster also had Mainfreight in the mix. Unfortunately two other picks, beer company Moa and medical technology company Truscreen, underperformed with -30.9 per cent and -46.7 per cent. Disclaimer - It's a game
Readers should recognise that the results of the Brokers Picks are skewed by some features of the game. The figures exclude brokers fees. Brokers are asked to choose the securities that will give the best short-term performance. If they had been asked to choose, for example, a five-year term, the results might be different. The survey does not allow brokers to review choices during the year. The survey implies a one-size-fits-all approach. It takes no account of individual circumstances such as an investor's appetite for risk, need for income or tax circumstances. The views expressed do not constitute personalised financial advice and are not directed at any person. Finally, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

[Cadalac123]

Good man
Much appreciated

[RupertBear]

NZ Herald have replied, they will update the story to include the picks by broker.
Have also said they will include the "Sharetrader top 5" :-)! But I can only send them that on the 2nd obviously...

cheers SylvesterCat much appreciated :)

[tim23]

Merry Christmas Stingebums

by Liam Dann

NZ Herald Business Editor at Large
liam.dann@nzherald.co.nz

@liamdann (https://www.twitter.com/@liamdann)

Let's be honest. Most of us thought the market in 2019 would be volatile and couldn't possibly continue the double-digit returns of the past several years. The fact that they weren't particularly volatile, and had the best year yet in this long bull run, is quite amazing. That doesn't mean things couldn't get more rocky in 2020 but it is also putting pressure on investors who've already taken a defensive stance. "In 2020 financial markets are facing a tug of war between weaker economic growth and a highly accommodative policy backdrop from central banks," says Mark Lister, head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners. "The two important elections that are looming in the latter months of the year could shape the path of financial markets both here and offshore," he says. "Both of these could be close, and the potential for policy change could be a key investment theme over the coming 12 months." "On a brighter note, we think the New Zealand economy is in reasonable shape," Lister says. "In addition, interest rates are exceptionally low, government spending is likely to provide further stimulus and business confidence has rebounded from the lows of late 2019."


Whatever happens on global markets, in the annual Herald Broker's Picks game the world is a simpler place - five picks, five companies that look well placed to thrive over the next 12 months, what could go wrong...

There's a diverse mix of stocks in the picks this year suggesting a positive outlook across a range of sectors. Perhaps unsurprisingly New Zealand's top-performing stock - a2 Milk which featured heavily in the 2019 picks, stands out again with five out of six brokers including it in the mix. Recent controversy with the sudden departure of chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka doesn't seem to have deterred investors. In fact despite slumping sharply on the morning of the announcement the stock was back trading above pre-departure levels within days. A high level of interest from Australian traders does make a2 quite volatile but broadly it has been on a stellar growth path for the past several years which makes it difficult to ignore. "The company still managed to grow its profits by 47 per cent and finish the year with a significant amount of cash on the balance sheet," Lister says.

"Risks around Chinese sales channels remain, while competition is also increasing. However, we remain confident about the company's future, particularly with regard to infant formula products. While ATM is an above-average proposition in terms of risk, the growth opportunity ahead more than offsets this." Beyond star performer a2, our brokers have picked a very broad spread of stocks for 2020Just five companies were picked twice, with the remainder of picks spread across 15 highly diverse companies. But the healthcare sector stood out among those that got two picks. Retirement village operator Oceania Healthcare has demographics on its side and has spent the last couple of years upgrading its facilities to reflect demand for premium independent-living units. Likewise rival Arvida also proved popular. "Arvida looks the best-value stock in this "hot sector" at the moment, with good and focused management," says MSL's Andrew McDouall. Ebos , picked by Craigs and Hamilton Hindin Greene, is another health care company, although in a very different space as a wholesale distributor of medical products. "We like the healthcare sector, given the backdrop of an ageing population and the resilience of healthcare products and services regardless of where we are in the economic cycle," says Lister. "We expect that to continue, with Ebos likely to seeing ongoing benefits from being the largest player in the sector." AFT Pharmaceuticals also got two picks. "[It] is an under-researched stock, whose management has been head down and performing," says McDouall. "Regulatory changes are also likely to boost longer-term product and revenue growth." Perennial investor favourite F&P Healthcare also got one pick this year (Hamilton Hindin Greene) rounding out the enthusiasm for the health sector. Transport and logistics company Mainfreight has two picks. Always a solid bet on the NZX with a long track record of growth and now a successful programme of international expansion.

Mainfreight reported one of the standout performances of the 2019 year with strong growth in operating earnings in the international regions it operates in. US earnings, for example, increased 43 per cent; Asia by 35 per cent and Europe by 37 per cent.Meridian Energy is another solid performer to get picked twice. "The dividend yield of more than 5 per cent is highly attractive, and Meridian offers the potential for long-term earnings growth," says Lister. On the energy front Contact , Z Energy and Infratil all get one pick each. Two normally defensive infrastructure stocks - Chorus and Vector - also get picks this year. McDouall says "continued strong connection growth, particularly in the greater Auckland area, a focus on future energy needs and behaviour understanding, means Vector is likely to lead the country in new energy solutions, and should get greater investment attention." Notable by their absence this year are retail stocks - perhaps reflecting the tough, competitive environment and tight margins. Australasian outdoor clothing company Kathmandu is the only retailer to get a nod this year, picked by Jarden.
The 2019 Results


The presence of a2 Milk (with a return of nearly 43 per cent) was almost ubiquitous in the 2019 picks meaning results were broadly strong across the board. The same could be said for the NZX-50 where a2 Milk is one of the top three stocks by market capitalisation. Ironically though, our ultimate winner this year has managed to top the pool without including a2 at all. MSL Capital (formerly McDouall Stuart) takes out this year's competition with a stellar total return of 55.6 per cent. Two picks paid off big time for MSL, technology company Plexure returned with a 219.1 per cent return and AFT Pharmaceuticals with return of 54.5 per cent. Mobile marketing company Plexure – formerly known as Vmob - had a breakthrough in April when fast-food giant McDonald's took a 10 per cent stake. Other solid picks for MSL included Freightways and Green Cross Health. Only software company Gentrack failed to fire for them.

10918


In second place this year was Craigs Investment Partners with a total return of 47.7 per cent. Craigs' picks were dominated by some of the NZX heavyweights including F&P Healthcare with a staggering 84.9 per cent gain for the period. In October it revised up its earnings forecast after receiving regulatory clearance to sell a new, full-face obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) mask in the United States, which is the biggest market for the product. It has also had a good year on the currency front with rate cuts pushing the kiwi below forecast levels and boosting its US dollar returns. Meridian and Mainfreight also proved top picks returning 54.8 per cent and 41.3 per cent respectively. Third place this year went to Hamilton Hindin Greene which included three of the big stocks mentioned above plus Infratil which achieved a 43.4 per cent return. It is notable that none of the participants came a cropper this year with negative returns. Last year's winner Foster Capital (formerly Vulcan) was at the back of the pack but their picks still delivered returns of 13.5 per cent. The Warehouse with a return of 49.3 per cent and hospitality investment firm Good Spirits delivered 54.4 per cent. Foster also had Mainfreight in the mix. Unfortunately two other picks, beer company Moa and medical technology company Truscreen, underperformed with -30.9 per cent and -46.7 per cent. Disclaimer - It's a game
Readers should recognise that the results of the Brokers Picks are skewed by some features of the game. The figures exclude brokers fees. Brokers are asked to choose the securities that will give the best short-term performance. If they had been asked to choose, for example, a five-year term, the results might be different. The survey does not allow brokers to review choices during the year. The survey implies a one-size-fits-all approach. It takes no account of individual circumstances such as an investor's appetite for risk, need for income or tax circumstances. The views expressed do not constitute personalised financial advice and are not directed at any person. Finally, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.


Read this article but can't see the 2020 picks? What am I missing??

[peat]

Tim23



a2 Milk
Oceania Healthcare
Arvida
Ebos
AFT Pharmaceuticals
F&P Healthcare
Mainfreight
Meridian Energy
Contact ,
Z Energy
Infratil
Chorus
Vector -
Kathmandu



You probably need to read it a bit slower and see what the words say.

[winner69]

From what I understand the standout pick is ATM followed by these stocks getting various ticks from brokers OCA/ARV(Sorry Beagle no SUM) Ebos/AFT/MFT/FPH/CNU/ZEL/MEL/CEN/KMD/VCT.

Couts - Brokers have never really understood ratios that’s why SUM not picked.....with ARV being best value in the sector according to one guru.

[fungus pudding]

Read this article but can't see the 2020 picks? What am I missing??

The 4th and 5th place-getters.

[tim23]

Tim23


You probably need to read it a bit slower and see what the words say.
[/LEFT]
[/LEFT]

Thanks - I did read and picked up the selections just wanted to see the matrix usually shown per broker?

[RupertBear]

Thanks - I did read and picked up the selections just wanted to see the matrix usually shown per broker?

yes I wanted to see it as well

[Enrix]

Hobson
Craigs
Jarden
Forbar
MSL
HHG


SKO
A2M
A2M
CEN
AFT
ZEL


OCA
MFT
ERD
ARV
ARV
A2M


TWR
MEL
IFT
SAN
HGH
MEL


MFT
EBO
KMD
CNU
PLX
EBO


A2M
FRE
OCA
A2M
VCT
FPH

[RupertBear]

Hobson
Craigs
Jarden
Forbar
MSL
HHG


SKO
A2M
A2M
CEN
AFT
ZEL


OCA
MFT
ERD
ARV
ARV
A2M


TWR
MEL
IFT
SAN
HGH
MEL


MFT
EBO
KMD
CNU
PLX
EBO


A2M
FRE
OCA
A2M
VCT
FPH




AWESOME! Thank you Enrix :t_up:

[Beagle]

Lot of love for ATM amongst the brokers. Coutts will be pleased....and yet this information was known to the market on Friday for a full day's trading and it still went down despite a stronger lead from overseas bourses.

[couta1]

Lot of love for ATM amongst the brokers. Coutts will be pleased....and yet this information was known to the market on Friday for a full day's trading and it still went down despite a stronger lead from overseas bourses. But it finished up 0.8% on the ASX Beagle, besides it's just the low volume calm before the steady rise leading up to the Feb result.

[Beagle]

Really good Geoff is back. Brokers might be right and 2020 could be a good year for ATM.

[Anna Naum]

Hobson
Craigs
Jarden
Forbar
MSL
HHG


SKO
A2M
A2M
CEN
AFT
ZEL


OCA
MFT
ERD
ARV
ARV
A2M


TWR
MEL
IFT
SAN
HGH
MEL


MFT
EBO
KMD
CNU
PLX
EBO


A2M
FRE
OCA
A2M
VCT
FPH



Thanks Enrix

[Cadalac123]

I usually follow MSL.. but ARV lol really wonder how much more that cash cow is going to run.

[winner69]

See Jardens the pre-eminent brokers/analyst seem to think OCA is best bet of the retirement sector stocks

Jarden’s must think that 1.3 times NTA is cheap as in this sector

[kiora]

Brokers Picks 2020
Craigs ATM,MFT,FRE,MEL,EBO just below break even
My share portfolio up 13.3%
Percy creaming it?
COUTA 100 % ATM? Up 26% ?
How are other ST going?