Is a Bear Market starting to play out on the NZX ?

[Beagle]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/heres-how-long-stock-market-corrections-last-and-how-bad-they-can-get.html

I believe it is highly likely the greatest ever bull market of our lives is over. The economic effects from this black swan event that nobody saw coming has ended it.

The only question in my mind is are we in the early stages of a correction or a bear market. Its possibly a little early to tell but the central theme of my current investment strategy is that on the balance of probabilities it is highly likely the market as a whole will be lower in 2-3 months time than it is now.

Why do I believe this ? The NZX after a record 11 year run and a truly spectacular 2019 had reached extremely elevated level's and is ripe for a decent correction with or without this virus. Its crystal clear already that this virus will have significant economic effects which could easily snowball throughout the economy as consumers shut up shop in terms of discretionary spending and business's freeze capex and new hiring and lay off workers to try and survive.

Its well worth noting that in the last great bear market, the GFC, stock markets fared extremely poorly with many down over 50% and taking 24 months or longer to recover.

We've had a charmed run. Cash looks exceptionally good to me as an asset class at present. I am 95%+ in cash and short term deposits so I am putting my money where my mouth is.

If I am wrong I am still happy as I have crystalized many years of fabulous gains and the market was already very stretched so is extremely unlikely to go materially higher from its current level in the foreseeable future. I see the risks as clearly to the downside and we have just witnessed the DOW, S&P500 and Nasdaq correct from record level's to correction territory, down 10% at record ever speed, less than 10 trading sessions.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/kiwi-doctor-admits-he-got-it-wrong-in-playing-down-coronavirus-says-thousands-could-die-here/ar-BB10tYbw?ocid=spartanntp

P.S. Update, Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all down a whopping circa 4.5% overnight.

Take care folks.

[bull....]

your right ive cashed up and re investing this weekend in survival equipment and food supplies

[Biscuit]

Yeah, I reckon the bear is unleashed. I'm still about 50:50 shares:cash and I ain't selling nothing from here. Am going to try to resist buying for a while, but make no promises.

[blackcap]

Yeah, I reckon the bear is unleashed. I'm still about 50:50 shares:cash and I ain't selling nothing from here. Am going to try to resist buying for a while, but make no promises.

That is the boat I am in too. I have been accumulating cash the last year or two, (not reinvesting divs) and will wait a while longer before putting this cash to use. But I am not selling my core portfolio.

[Brovendell]

OMG
The value of my house is going down..
I had better sell it now and go and live in a motel.:t_up:

[Biscuit]

OMG
The value of my house is going down..
I had better sell it now and go and live in a motel.:t_up:

Don't underestimate the power of the bear. The sensible get out of the way early (ie. see Beagle's post from about a week ago).

[Brovendell]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/heres-how-long-stock-market-corrections-last-and-how-bad-they-can-get.html

[Schrodinger]

Normal flu strain variation - old people dying with other conditions (400k deaths from flu every year??). This new one is a substitute for normal flu. FLu is contagious (stay at home if you have?) China market went up. Media is the problem.

DYOR

[Cadalac123]

Cant stop laughing at people panicking over this disclosure in the medical sector - this is insanely overblown

[ynot]

Cant stop laughing at people panicking over this disclosure in the medical sector - this is insanely overblown
That's how black swans work

[mondograss]

I sold out entirely just over a week ago and pulled my managed funds back to cash as well. Proving so far to have been rather well timed (albeit more by accident than by design) as I almost perfectly picked the peak for my portfolio.

I don't particularly think COVID-19 is going to be any great pandemic (in terms of loss of life), but rather that it's coinciding with irrationally high valuations and debt levels and anything that might force a lot of businesses to take a meaningful loss for any sustained period of time is going to cause a flight to safety in case it triggers a more widespread meltdown. Ironically that behaviour in itself leading to a run on the markets.

[Joshuatree]

The DOW doesn't agree with you Cadalac, down another 1190 points today.I remember going down watching the 2008-9 crash ;never again, selectively sold down many stocks on the 4th Feb. Doing something is better than nothing imo.Then again riding it out is another option, although this is the longest Bull ever, long way to fall if we do end up with a pandemic.

[causecelebre]

The DOW doesn't agree with you Cadalac, down another 1190 points today.

Exactly, regardless of whether it is FUD or not. Mr Market is selling

[Blue Horseshoe]

This poll result doesn't look to good.

[Beagle]

The DOW doesn't agree with you Cadalac, down another 1190 points today.I remember going down watching the 2008-9 crash ;never again, selectively sold down many stocks on the 4th Feb. Doing something is better than nothing imo.Then again riding it out is another option, although this is the longest Bull ever, long way to fall if we do end up with a pandemic.

Sure is. I think a lot of the young ones on here have never seen a bear market and have only ever known bullish markets so they could be in for a very harsh lesson. I hope I am wrong and this is just a "garden variety" correction. Like you I started selling down much earlier this month and now am almost completely out.
Banks, finance companies and airlines do very poorly in a bear market so I now have modest sized short positions on AIR and HGH.

[Schrodinger]

The DOW doesn't agree with you Cadalac, down another 1190 points today.I remember going down watching the 2008-9 crash ;never again, selectively sold down many stocks on the 4th Feb. Doing something is better than nothing imo.Then again riding it out is another option, although this is the longest Bull ever, long way to fall if we do end up with a pandemic.

And yet the China market went up. Minimal cases outside China...

[King1212]

Yes ..bear is here...but people here hoping to bounce back....I believe market has not seen the worst yet....so...yeahh.... buckle up....

[Beagle]

And yet the China market went up. Minimal cases outside China...

That was yesterday, today is another day...

[peat]

getting close to maximum fear though ?

[Blue Horseshoe]

And yet the China market went up. Minimal cases outside China...

It went up because the Chinese government bought it up.

[Schrodinger]

That was yesterday, today is another day...

Already factored in to valuation.

[Beagle]

getting close to maximum fear though ?

Wait till it starts spreading person to person in N.Z., then you'll see something new and potentially far more ugly.

[bull....]

It went up because the Chinese government bought it up.

totally on the money

[Beagle]

Already factored in to valuation.

Just sit in tight and watch then, and don't say I didn't warn you and others...I think you're about to see the NZX go into a very serious downtrend...

[couta1]

getting close to maximum fear though ? Feel the Fear and do it anyway. PS-Still buying ATM and HLG.:D

[Beagle]

Feel the Fear and do it anyway. PS-Still buying ATM and HLG.:D

I knew this thread would get you out of hibernation...that's part of the reason I started it :lol:
Please be sure to let me know when you have completely stopped supporting the HLG share price :p

[couta1]

I knew this thread would get you out of hibernation...that's part of the reason I started it :lol:
Please be sure to let me know when you have completely stopped supporting the HLG share price :p You'll be waiting until it goes ex divvy in April and by then it will be too late for you Fear Bears. PS-I think I'm going to need a new pickup truck for that divvy collection.:cool:

[bull....]

anyway if it goes into a bear market people will buy a bounce all the time thinking its a bottom thats the way bear goes sucks ya in and keeps rolling down trapping most people.

[madmat]

Its times like these where I wonder if I should sell some now or ideally before now and then try time a buy back when i guess price is near bottom. Like AIR NZ etc

[Joshuatree]

Gawd i hope couta's not swimming naked:eek2:, tides going out:blush:

[couta1]

Gawd i hope couta's not swimming naked:eek2:, tides going out:blush: Be Greedy when others are Fearful and Fearful when others are Greedy.

[Schrodinger]

Its just a normal flu who cares if it hits NZ - death rates are the same as the normal one.

[Davexl]

Definately over bar any stimulus input, but central banks are running out of ammo. FTSE and Euro STOXX were down 3.5% overnight also.

Yesterday bought a large position in the Aussi Bear BBOZ on warrants market in anticipation of either Covid-19 US spreading or more Euro spreading. Also possibility of Pandemic being announced in very near future.

Had less than a week before closed out earlier BBOZ position with small loss after China stimulus & US earnings uplift. Missed the beginning of main Covid-19 downturn by 2 days by not holding on a bit longer.

As well as the ASX200 hedge, have bought F&P Healthcare as has demonstrated ongoing strength over last 1 1/2 months. Something to contribute to peoples health recovery.

Have also sold off my Heartland position at a loss (apart from dividend) to raise additional cash, even my 2 remaining bell-weather gentailers have been hit today also. Nothing seems immune at this point.

Had also much earlier raised cash levels to around 75%.

I'd say the BEAR market has begun (about a week later than I initially surmised)

Be very careful out there folks, especially you Couta with all that A2 & HLG!

[Biscuit]

Its times like these where I wonder if I should sell some now or ideally before now and then try time a buy back when i guess price is near bottom. Like AIR NZ etc

Ideally, you figure out what you are going to do in times like this before you get to times like this. Not a good idea to make reactive decisions, your emotions will likely lead you to the wrong decision.

[couta1]

Its just a normal flu who cares if it hits NZ - death rates are the same as the normal one. Actually a lot less than the normal strains but the scare mongers conveniently evade that fact.

[Beagle]

Gawd i hope couta's not swimming naked:eek2:, tides going out:blush:

Yes a timely reminder that anyone using leverage at present should have a good look at the poll result which is very confronting, (as I suspected it would be and is the key reason I started this thread), and rethink their strategy and get more conservative, very quickly.

[couta1]

Ideally, you figure out what you are going to do in times like this before you get to times like this. Not a good idea to make reactive decisions, your emotions will likely lead you to the wrong decision. And follow your own convictions and Gutometer not the noise on here. Lol

[madmat]

Yeah cheers. Not having a mass sell, but any selloff contributes to the greater reaction lol ...

[Biscuit]

Yeah cheers. Not having a mass sell, but any selloff contributes to the greater reaction lol ...

Don't worry about anyone else, save yourself.

[madmat]

Ideally, you figure out what you are going to do in times like this before you get to times like this. Not a good idea to make reactive decisions, your emotions will likely lead you to the wrong decision.

Whoops replied to you as a standard reply without the Quotes :X Just with AIR I guess there is more to come and if im in the Red now might as well call it quits, and cash it in. Put it elsewhere, hold or re enter when i feel its right. I may save 10% or a may miss out but I think its heading to $2 or below (My gut feeling)

[Aaron]

Actually a lot less than the normal strains but the scare mongers conveniently evade that fact.

My record on predicting the next bear market should be well known so I have no idea if this is “the big one” but you can guess how I voted.

Where are you getting your numbers from Schrodinger and Couta?
My understanding was that the mortality rate for the flu was about .1%. Deaths are much higher because just about everyone gets the flu at least once a year. Coronavirus so far sounds like it has a 2% mortality rate. (Spanish flu might have been about 2%)

That is 1 death per 1,000 infections for the flu and 20 deaths per 1,000 infections for Coronavirus.

Interesting Lance O’Sullivan retracted his initial comments regarding Coronavirus.

On the plus side it may have kicked off a bear market and we may have another once in a lifetime investing opportunity, although we will still not know where the bottom is.

Also it has been great for climate change so far and national superannuation in NZ might become much more affordable for NZ over the next couple of years.

I should not make light of something that has the potential to be catastrophic (I appreciate “catastrophic” is much more emotive than “bad” but it sounded better in the sentence.)

As always no one knows what the future holds and we can only hope that this turns out to be like SARS or Y2K and I pick the exact bottom of the next bear market.

If anyone can see the future could you email me Saturday’s lotto numbers and tell me what level the NZX will hit bottom if this is a bear market.

[ratkin]

Dodged a massive bullet here, was frightened out of the market a few days ago, apart from EBOS and Invocare.

Now it just a question of when to dip some toes in.
Feel there is no rush as the bad news is just going to keep coming, will wait till the end of the world looks nigh, which looks pretty close tbf

Always feel happiest in a bear market, valuations always look much more sensible

[ratkin]

Its just a normal flu who cares if it hits NZ - death rates are the same as the normal one.

It not like N1 H1 that the Americans unleashed on an unsuspecting world

[Blue Horseshoe]

Its just a normal flu who cares if it hits NZ - death rates are the same as the normal one.
Its not about the death rate altogether.
How much productivity does New Zealand Inc loose a year to the common flu, now add highly contagious Corrona virus to that figure, also our hospitals at max every winter just with the common flu let alone a double whammy.

[couta1]

I'm just loving these Bears, I feel like I want to invite them to a picnic and give them a honeypot each.

[blackcap]

Wonder how the new Sharesies generation are enjoying this roller coaster ride? The precipitous drop will be a new sensation for many.

IT will be a very good learning experience for them. Sharesies coming to market at about the 9 year mark in a bull run might turn out to be unfortunate.

[madmat]

Wonder how the new Sharesies generation are enjoying this roller coaster ride? The precipitous drop will be a new sensation for many.

I use sharesies as well as ASB. There was an announcement regarding a live stream to discuss the current drops. Certainly some ppl panicking on their facebook page, others not so much.

[peat]

Sharesies coming to market at about the 9 year mark in a bull run might turn out to be unfortunate.
Its actually more than unfortunate its co-related. I said recently that Sharesies is the equivalent of the shoe shine boy getting into the market, and signals that EVERYBODY is IN, and there are no more people to pass the parcel to.

[bull....]

If we get another 25% to 50% off from here on solid stocks (the kind that have real growing earnings underpinned by sustainable competitive advantage and favourable market dynamics), there will be some wonderful once in a decade type buying opportunities.

yes agree other great times were the the great recession and the great depression

[Biscuit]

Its actually more than unfortunate its co-related. I said recently that Sharesies is the equivalent of the shoe shine boy getting into the market, and signals that EVERYBODY is IN, and there are no more people to pass the parcel to.


Yes, but there must be a lot of money parked out of the market at this stage?

[blackcap]

Its actually more than unfortunate its co-related. I said recently that Sharesies is the equivalent of the shoe shine boy getting into the market, and signals that EVERYBODY is IN, and there are no more people to pass the parcel to.

Agree, but my unfortunate was more related to the fact that if this is a big correction it will put of another whole generation from equity markets. NZ does not need that.

[couta1]

If we get another 25% to 50% off from here on solid stocks (the kind that have real growing earnings underpinned by sustainable competitive advantage and favourable market dynamics), there will be some wonderful once in a decade type buying opportunities. I reckon your being overly hopeful here, it's a virus not a complete financial collapse or WW3.

[Biscuit]

I reckon your being overly hopeful here, it's a virus not a complete financial collapse or WW3.

The virus, IMO, is not such a big deal. If this had happened 5 years ago, it would have been a temporary drop and then shrugged off (it still could be, who knows what the markets are going to do). But this is a time when markets are already stretched, the bull was getting tired and many of us were getting bored with it and are psychologically ready to see this blow up. Also, in the real world, some major economies are already on the verge of recession and this is going to tip them over the edge. Low interest rates have led many companies and people deep into debt and there isn't much room this time round to alleviate that with even lower interest rates. I wouldn't bet my money a full blown bear isn't going to materialize this time.

[850man]

The virus, IMO, is not such a big deal. If this had happened 5 years ago, it would have been a temporary drop and then shrugged off (it still could be, who knows what the markets are going to do). But this is a time when markets are already stretched, the bull was getting tired and many of us were getting bored with it and are psychologically ready to see this blow up. Also, in the real world, some major economies are already on the verge of recession and this is going to tip them over the edge. Low interest rates have led many companies and people deep into debt and there isn't much room this time round to alleviate that with even lower interest rates. I wouldn't bet my money a full blown bear isn't going to materialize this time.

A correction has been due for some time... Corona looks like the trigger.

[winner69]

Yes, but there must be a lot of money parked out of the market at this stage?


But the buyers of the shares sold have more money in the market. ..ie lots of money parked in the market

[Biscuit]

But the buyers of the shares sold have more money in the market. ..ie lots of money parked in the market

Yes, although less today than yesterday, and even less tomorrow.

[couta1]

The virus, IMO, is not such a big deal. If this had happened 5 years ago, it would have been a temporary drop and then shrugged off (it still could be, who knows what the markets are going to do). But this is a time when markets are already stretched, the bull was getting tired and many of us were getting bored with it and are psychologically ready to see this blow up. Also, in the real world, some major economies are already on the verge of recession and this is going to tip them over the edge. Low interest rates have led many companies and people deep into debt and there isn't much room this time round to alleviate that with even lower interest rates. I wouldn't bet my money a full blown bear isn't going to materialize this time. Still value buying left IMO, A2 with new revised valuations way above current price and of course my other favourite HLG now on a PE just under 10 and would need a disastrous result to justify the current price., whoops I forgot to mention PAZ on the unlisted market. OCA looks good as well.

[winner69]

Yes, although less today than yesterday, and even less tomorrow.

......but the amount of cash coming out is the same as the amount going in .....net impact on total cash balances nil?

[ratkin]

The only saving grace for the markets could be the low interest rates, once the dust has settled people are going to be looking for yield, and the more the prices fall the better the yields look.

Valuations are still stretched P/E will look even more stretched when E falls for most companies, but if there are stocks that can keep churning the dividends out until matters improve then they should become sought after.

The 25% falls will probably only happen if the virus is here, and everybody stays indoors not spending for Three months.
Another 10% and I will be sniffing around for some safe yield plays

[Biscuit]

Still value buying left IMO, A2 with new revised valuations way above current price and of course my other favourite HLG now on a PE just under 10 and would need a disastrous result to justify the current price., whoops I forgot to mention PAZ on the unlisted market. OCA looks good as well.

Yes, I've held HLG since 2010 and still hold. Not one I would sell personally, but I'd expect there is a good chance earnings are going to take a dive for a while. I'm all out of old folks homes (sold my RYM this month - hated to do it but low div return, over-priced, and I'd hate to see what happens if the virus really gets going in the retirement homes, unlikely though that is).

[Biscuit]

......but the amount of cash coming out is the same as the amount going in .....net impact on total cash balances nil?

I sell you some shares for $1 today and they drop in price tomorrow: I still got a dollar, but I don't think you do.

[winner69]

I sell you some shares for $1 today and they drop in price tomorrow: I still got a dollar, but I don't think you do.

You got the $1 cash (sitting on the sidelines) and I have $1 less cash in my cash pile -- between us we still have the same amount of cash, don't we

If the market falls Monday the value of that $1 share will be less than today ....but between us we still have the same amount of cash....you have $1 more parked out and I have $1 less parked out ....and we both probably poorer come Monday

[causecelebre]

......but the amount of cash coming out is the same as the amount going in .....net impact on total cash balances nil?

Commissions aside a zero sum game - but is the sum just getting smaller?

[macduffy]

Are we there yet? Bear market, that is.

Not according to some. Another 10% to go yet.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-28/asx-carried-away-in-worsening-coronavirus-share-rout/12009886?section=business

[Biscuit]

You got the $1 cash (sitting on the sidelines) and I have $1 less cash in my cash pile -- between us we still have the same amount of cash, don't we

If the market falls Monday the value of that $1 share will be less than today ....but between us we still have the same amount of cash....you have $1 more parked out and I have $1 less parked out ....and we both probably poorer come Monday

LOL, yes we are both poorer on Monday! You are right about the total amount of cash, but I think if you look back you will see that that was my point in relation to Peat's comment that with everyone in there would be no one left to sell shares to. I think - anyway lets just agree we are both right and that you still owe me a dollar.

[Schrodinger]

And Dow futures up 1%. Market over reaction.

[bull....]

And Dow futures up 1%. Market over reaction.

and down again lol you must be a bottom picker

[Cadalac123]

lmao can't even trade on ASB. What a useless interface.

[see weed]

I just voted in the little purple box down the bottom.:cool:

[ynot]

I reckon your being overly hopeful here, it's a virus not a complete financial collapse or WW3.
It's not that it's a virus or WW3. What is relevant is its a black swan and that is all this market needed to push it over the edge. The market was a problem waiting to happen and it just got its cue.

[bull....]

lmao can't even trade on ASB. What a useless interface.

seem to have a lot of issues these days dont they must not be investing anything in the business?

[couta1]

lmao can't even trade on ASB. What a useless interface. DB having problems also coping with the volume but apparently the NZX is also at fault, the systems are outdated for modern trading.

[Beagle]

The only saving grace for the markets could be the low interest rates, once the dust has settled people are going to be looking for yield, and the more the prices fall the better the yields look.

Valuations are still stretched P/E will look even more stretched when E falls for most companies, but if there are stocks that can keep churning the dividends out until matters improve then they should become sought after.

The 25% falls will probably only happen if the virus is here, and everybody stays indoors not spending for Three months.
Another 10% and I will be sniffing around for some safe yield plays

That's the problem. The metrics of the market was already really stretched and if E starts falling...especially on a 3 month lockdown you'll get your 25% alright...and some more I reckon.


It's not that it's a virus or WW3. What is relevant is its a black swan and that is all this market needed to push it over the edge. The market was a problem waiting to happen and it just got its cue. Average market PE of the NZX was over 30 at 12000 points. This is absurdly higher than the long run average of somewhere around 18 according to some commentators.

In a bad scenario where there is a lockdown for many months the market could halve to 6000 and still be on a forward PE of 20+ because average earnings will come down so much. On the other hand the chances of a rebound and the NZX50 going to 13,000 later in 2020 look extremely remote to me.

[ratkin]

lmao can't even trade on ASB. What a useless interface.

When I was selling everything on Tuesday morning there were terrible delays with trades going throug. Even on market trades were taking Ten minutes to be verified. I suspected I was being held back in the queue while their bigger favoured clients were being given preferential treatment as it was a very heavy selling day.

Rang them and was assured it was just down to higher than normal volumes, seemed a little odd though, because the little sales of 1 share that the bots do were going through straight away. Most days my sells go through almost instantly.

Makes me wonder what would happen in a real crash, the delays would cost thousands

[ratkin]

That's the problem. The metrics of the market was already really stretched and if E starts falling...especially on a 3 month lockdown you'll get your 25% alright...and some more I reckon.

Average market PE of the NZX was over 30 at 12000 points. This is absurdly higher than the long run average of somewhere around 18 according to some commentators.

In a bad scenario where there is a lockdown for many months the market could halve to 6000 and still be on a forward PE of 20+ because average earnings will come down so much. On the other hand the chances of a rebound and the NZX50 going to 13,000 later in 2020 look extremely remote to me.

P/Es have been ridiculous for years. Remember when the NZ market was cheap back in the 90s-early 2000s when many companies were trading on P/Es under 10 and even the super growth stocks were considered expensive if they went over 20 P/E.

Some of the ones now are on P/E of 60. Which implies they would need to lose more than half their value to be a fair price in a bear market.

Again low interest rates have an influence though, which is why we will probably not see those sort of drops.


I think there could be a quick rebound to all this, the public will be hanging out for some shopping/spending/partying once this virus is out the way. Cancelled holidays will be rebooked and we will all feel lucky to be alive.

[Joshuatree]

Beware, there could well be sucker rally though.

[Cadalac123]

There is 100% a sucker rally, and what's going to happen is the smart big boys are going to re-enter after everyone pulls out and drops the SP to ridiculous entry prices.

If you think the coronovirus will stop the world functioning you have honestly lived your life in a small little bubble and have no idea what type of medical diseases there are out there

[Logen Ninefingers]

ASB Securities is a disgrace. Trades have been taking ages this weeks. Now the whole system is dead, can't see portfolio, can't make trades. F*cked.

With all the brokerage they make off us, how can they treat customers like this????

[Logen Ninefingers]

Are we able to sue ASB securities for a complete and utter f-up like this? A reckon a class action is in order.

[Joshuatree]

A sucker rally is actually when the Instos etc talk it up and sell off the rest of the shares they want to get rid of to small retail suckers.

[bull....]

Are we able to sue ASB securities for a complete and utter f-up like this? A reckon a class action is in order.

dinasour system they havnt been investing in it for long time i reckon , trades are not electronic for nz. someone still manually assese it lol so to not upset the integrity of the exchange on stock movement.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Phone call eventually went through to a service desk there....and the person cut me off before I even said a word. Disgusting.

[ratkin]

Are we able to sue ASB securities for a complete and utter f-up like this? A reckon a class action is in order.

I can log on ok, straight thoug on the ipad

[Crypto Crude]

The Dow just had the biggest fall OF ALL TIME and cryptocurrency going up real hearty today... every coin in the top 70 was is in the green....
:cool:
.^sc

[bull....]

Phone call eventually went through to a service desk there....and the person cut me off before I even said a word. Disgusting.

is the person in thailand

[couta1]

P/Es have been ridiculous for years. Remember when the NZ market was cheap back in the 90s-early 2000s when many companies were trading on P/Es under 10 and even the super growth stocks were considered expensive if they went over 20 P/E.

Some of the ones now are on P/E of 60. Which implies they would need to lose more than half their value to be a fair price in a bear market.

Again low interest rates have an influence though, which is why we will probably not see those sort of drops.


I think there could be a quick rebound to all this, the public will be hanging out for some shopping/spending/partying once this virus is out the way. Cancelled holidays will be rebooked and we will all feel lucky to be alive. There are still good stocks on the NZX trading at very modest PE ratios.

[Logen Ninefingers]

I can log on ok, straight thoug on the ipad

I can log in too, but can you made a trade or see your portfolio?

[ratkin]

A sucker rally is actually when the Instos etc talk it up and sell off the rest of the shares they want to get rid of to small retail suckers.

Yeah they will use the bots to make it look like a good trading entry point, join in for a bit then when the price is up quickly switch sides and drive it back down. Might not work yet though, just too many sellers about

[ratkin]

There are still good stocks on the NZX trading at very modest PE ratios.

Feed me some examples that can add to watchlist

[winner69]

Looking at this chart from AMP Capital NZX could easily ‘correct’ by 50%

Earnings don’t support a PE of 32

Experience says when markets ‘correct’ nearly everything goes down ...even the cheap undervalued shares

All speculation anyway

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Fantastic chart winner.

It doesn't matter how serious you think corona virus is. The fact is that there are some very serious imbalances in economies and markets worldwide. The virus may just be the grain of sand that makes the pile collapse.

[Beagle]

Looking at this chart from AMP Capital NZX could easily ‘correct’ by 50%

Earnings don’t support a PE of 32

Experience says when markets ‘correct’ nearly everything goes down ...even the cheap undervalued shares

All speculation anyway

Something you and I have been chatting about by PM and email for well over a year now eh mate. Markets are far too stretched and are looking for any excuse for a major correction and they have found a very, very good one. Interesting poll result...an overwhelming 95%+ of people believe we are at the very least in for a serious correction ! The vast majority of those believe we are in for a bear market, more than 20% drop.

Interestingly in less than 10 trading days the S&P 500 is down 12% and both the Nasdaq and Dow down just under 13%. Fastest correction in the history of the US market EVER.

[Beagle]

P/Es have been ridiculous for years. Remember when the NZ market was cheap back in the 90s-early 2000s when many companies were trading on P/Es under 10 and even the super growth stocks were considered expensive if they went over 20 P/E.

Some of the ones now are on P/E of 60. Which implies they would need to lose more than half their value to be a fair price in a bear market.

Again low interest rates have an influence though, which is why we will probably not see those sort of drops.


I think there could be a quick rebound to all this, the public will be hanging out for some shopping/spending/partying once this virus is out the way. Cancelled holidays will be rebooked and we will all feel lucky to be alive.

I remember those days very well...like they were yesterday. You could buy good quality companies on late single digit PE's.
I think you are right that when the rebound comes it will be very quick as people will spend and enjoy life when they feel completely safe again, happy just to be alive...but my sense is that day when the consensus view it is safe is many, many months down the track, perhaps more than a year. In the meantime, batten down the hatches, stock up one's larder and storehouse properly with plenty of long life food and other necessities and prepare for the lockdown. Covid 19 is here and I am absolutely certain the first case will not be the last.

[Balance]

Now that there is a case in NZ, the real panic on NZX will start on Monday.

Brace yourself.

[Beagle]

Now that there is a case in NZ, the real panic on NZX will start on Monday.
Brace yourself.
I think the supermarkets will be incredibly busy this weekend like nothing anyone on here has seen before. Set the alarm early and get in before 7.30 to avoid the massive crowds and invest in an ample supply of long life food. I knew this was coming so we have done several massive shops already.

[Crypto Crude]

I told yah weeks ago it was already here in New Zealand...
No surprise at all really...
:cool:
.^sc

[winner69]

For health and safety reasons I think the NZX should not open Monday and stay closed for at least a week

[couta1]

For health and safety reasons I think the NZX should not open Monday and stay closed for at least a week All markets should be shut down for at least a week, settle the nerves of the Lemmings.

[winner69]

All markets should be shut down for at least a week, settle the nerves of the Lemmings.

That’s what I was thinking

[winner69]

All markets should be shut down for at least a week, settle the nerves of the Lemmings.

Also give them time to go out and buy heaps of provisions for the bunkering down ....and maybe get a haircut so one doesnt to get too shaggy over winter

[peat]

All markets should be shut down for at least a week, settle the nerves of the Lemmings.


why do so many outright capitalists cry 'Mummy' when the going gets tough.
You of all peeps Couta should know that there will be some bargains to be had - or have you shot your load already

[Beagle]

why do so many outright capitalists cry 'Mummy' when the going gets tough.
You of all peeps Couta should know that there will be some bargains to be had - or have you shot your load already

:lol: :lol:

[peat]

:lol: :lol:

Yeh that's how I mean it - in a ribbing jocular sort of way. I'm pretty sure Couta can take it.

[fish]

Wait till it starts spreading person to person in N.Z., then you'll see something new and potentially far more ugly.
First community spread in the states.
Only a matter of time here
Jacinda does not seem bothered about country to country spread and believes we are well-prepared .
I beg to differ

[couta1]

why do so many outright capitalists cry 'Mummy' when the going gets tough.
You of all peeps Couta should know that there will be some bargains to be had - or have you shot your load already Lol thinking of the poor Lemmings well being ain't crying Mummy, nah I love it when the going gets tough, I mean after all I was a sheep shearer and marathon runner in a former life.

[Beagle]

First community spread in the states.
Only a matter of time here
Jacinda does not seem bothered about country to country spread and believes we are well-prepared .
I beg to differ

Best to get lots of long life food supplies in so one is well stocked for any possible lockdown isn't it ?

[couta1]

Yeh that's how I mean it - in a ribbing jocular sort of way. I'm pretty sure Couta can take it. Haha for sure, didnt see this post.

[fish]

Best to get lots of long life food supplies in so one is well stocked for any possible lockdown isn't it ?

Not sure if I agree.Population health regarding diabetes/heart disease disease was at its best when rationing was imposed WW2.
I think dogfood could be short so am stocking up on that.Bought a new laptop today with a touch screen.Bought ammo,planted seeds and going fishing tomorrow to stock up.
I have a feeling I could be busy
Just a further thought if you are on longterm meds stock up as supply chains could get worse.
Also if you are hypertensive theoretically losartan might reduce pneumonia rate in covid 19 No definite evidence yet but its a good choice anyway.

[Beagle]

Not sure if I agree.Population health regarding diabetes/heart disease disease was at its best when rationing was imposed WW2.
I think dogfood could be short so am stocking up on that.Bought a new laptop today with a touch screen.Bought ammo,planted seeds and going fishing tomorrow to stock up.
I have a feeling I could be busy
Just a further thought if you are on longterm meds stock up as supply chains could get worse.
Also if you are hypertensive theoretically losartan might reduce pneumonia rate in covid 19 No definite evidence yet but its a good choice anyway.

Thanks for the heads up on the meds...might get another 3 months of my blood pressure meds and ask my doctor if I should get that losartan.
Winner thinks we should get a haircut but I reckon a few people have had one already on the market this week :eek2:

[Balance]

Thanks for the heads up on the meds...might get another 3 months of my blood pressure meds and ask my doctor if I should get that losartan.
Winner thinks we should get a haircut but I reckon a few people have had one already on the market this week :eek2:

Too late maybe, Beagle.

Good friend went to see his doctor this week and he was rationed to 1 month of losartan - with no indication when new supplies are available. The word has obviously got out.

Seriously. :(

[bull....]

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is compiling a list (https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-threatens-drug-shortage-318c9e7b-5d92-4a5e-b992-2478023c6d01.html) of drugs that are at risk of shortage if the outbreak in China continues to worsen. There are indications that about 150 prescription drugs could be affected, ranging from antibiotics to generic drugs, with potentially some branded drugs.
Because China is a major supplier of ingredients used to manufacture many drugs sold in the U.S., this could have a major ripple effect in the U.S. and around the world.

[kiora]

From Hoop 2012 just in case you missed it
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets&p=362384#post362384

[Beagle]

Too late maybe, Beagle.

Good friend went to see his doctor this week and he was rationed to 1 month of losartan - with no indication when new supplies are available. The word has obviously got out.

Seriously. :(
Oh my goodness !


From Hoop 2012 just in case you missed it
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets&p=362384#post362384
Thanks. Just what I was thinking this morning. It would be great to revisit Hoops Bear market strategies, thanks for making it easy.

[Beagle]

I think the supermarkets will be incredibly busy this weekend like nothing anyone on here has seen before. Set the alarm early and get in before 7.30 to avoid the massive crowds and invest in an ample supply of long life food. I knew this was coming so we have done several massive shops already.

As predicted. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12312732

[winner69]

As predicted. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12312732

That article was the biggest load of sensational **** ever printed

[Beagle]

Got it first hand from a friend who's wife works at the supermarket...que's have been phenomenal all day. Far busier than just before Christmas.

Interesting poll result update with the highest number of votes of any poll I can ever recall starting, nearly 1400, an overwhelming majority of more than 80% of voters think we are in for a bear market, (just a reminder that's a fall of more than 20%), that would see the NZX50 go below 9600. It closed at 11,261 on Friday down so far, only 6% from its high of just over 12,000 recently.

So we have fallen just on ~ 6% so far which isn't much and voting suggests at least another 14% fall to go, whereas the US markets dropped 11-12% in just the last week ! NZX to play catch up next week now the virus is here ?

[winner69]

Got it first hand from a friend who's wife works at the supermarket...que's have been phenomenal all day. Far busier than just before Christmas.

Must be an Auckland thing ...preparing for when Mt Eden blows it top.

[Beagle]

Must be an Auckland thing ...preparing for when Mt Eden blows it top.

Not being racist, just stating the opinion from first hand eye witness report, a lot of Asians have been panic buying today.

[Beagle]

Takapuna Countdown very quiet around midday today. Was no queue at check out and zero panic and fear.

Good to know. They seem to be hammering Pak and Save's for some reason...probably because they're cheaper. Might try my local Countdown or New World later today but I have the real fun job of cleaning out the freezer first.

[ratkin]

Good to know. They seem to be hammering Pak and Save's for some reason...probably because they're cheaper. Might try my local Countdown or New World later today but I have the real fun job of cleaning out the freezer first.

New world in Chch seemed the same as any other day. There was only one lunatic stocking his trolley with vitamins, candles, batteries and tins of soup. Damn, forgot the lucozade and lotto tickets.

Not sure about this helicopter though, has been buzzing around here for last Two weeks,waking everyone up. Last time we had constant arial surveillance was the mosque shooting and the earthquakes. Wonder if it there preparing for virus day.

[Beagle]

New world in Chch seemed the same as any other day. There was only one lunatic stocking his trolley with vitamins, candles, batteries and tins of soup. Damn, forgot the lucozade

Not sure about this helicopter though, has been buzzing around here for last Two weeks,waking everyone up. Last time we had constant arial surveillance was the mosque shooting and the earthquakes. Wonder if it there preparing for virus day.

Isn't the mosque anniversary coming up in March ? Maybe scoping out possible sniper vantage points so there's no recurrence with some other nut job looking to make themselves infamous ?

[Beagle]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/the-dow-just-lost-12percent-in-one-week-heres-why-and-what-likely-happens-next.html

[couta1]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/the-dow-just-lost-12percent-in-one-week-heres-why-and-what-likely-happens-next.html 13.7% average drop over 26 corrections and sept 18 was 20% ,hmm not much new under the sun or to see here, same old Lemming effect.

[Balance]

Not being racist, just stating the opinion from first hand eye witness report, a lot of Asians have been panic buying today.

It's in their DNA - just look at what happened in HK, Singapore and China - panic buying as they are dead scared that food & provisions will run out and/or they could be quarantined for weeks without access to basic essentials, especially toilet papers!

Nothing racist about that - it's an observation.

[DazRaz]

Not sure about this helicopter though, has been buzzing around here for last Two weeks,waking everyone up. Last time we had constant arial surveillance was the mosque shooting and the earthquakes. Wonder if it there preparing for virus day.

It's the Police Eagle helicopter. Doing a 6 week trial here in Christchurch. It seems to be constantly in the air.

[Balance]

Finally plucked up enough will power to brave the stock pilers at our local Pak n Save to get some milk and butter.

Nice pleasant surprise - no queues in sight and the shelves were mostly well stocked, with the exception of a few 99c birthday specials shelves.

Plenty of everything.

Talked to the checkout lady and she said they were a bit busy in the morning until lunch. She commented that the super busy Pak n Save stores are in the predominantly Asian areas.

So there you have it.

Panic buying is over.

[iceman]

Finally plucked up enough will power to brave the stock pilers at our local Pak n Save to get some milk and butter.

Nice pleasant surprise - no queues in sight and the shelves were mostly well stocked, with the exception of a few 99c birthday specials shelves.

Plenty of everything.

Talked to the checkout lady and she said they were a bit busy in the morning until lunch. She commented that the super busy Pak n Save stores are in the predominantly Asian areas.

So there you have it.

Panic buying is over.

But the panic selling on the markets continues and we are likely to see a bit more of it next week !! Oh well, another deep breath

[Beagle]

13.7% average drop over 26 corrections and sept 18 was 20% ,hmm not much new under the sun or to see here, same old Lemming effect.

Huge bear mate with massive teeth and claws...its many times the size of a Beagle dog so I dodged out of its way but its coming for you and mark my words, its going to really put some hurt on those that take it on.

My simple strategy in a bear market is once momentum is broken and a stock breaks down through its 100 day moving average , I sell and I don't buy back until its been properly de-risked and broken back up through the 100 day MA line. A simple strategy like that would have got you out of HLG at just on $6, if you didn't have so many.

Technical analysis is your best friend in a bear market and fundamental analysis your worst enemy because the temptation to buy because the metrics look cheap can easily get the better of you...and then the bear mauls you some more and then he bites you and then he claws you and then, oh dear, you get the idea.

Capital preservation is the name of the game in a Bear market !

[couta1]

Huge bear mate with massive teeth and claws...its many times the size of a Beagle dog so I dodged out of its way but its coming for you and mark my words, its going to really put some hurt on those that take it on.

My simple strategy in a bear market is once momentum is broken and a stock breaks down through its 100 day moving average , I sell and I don't buy back until its been properly de-risked and broken back up through the 100 day MA line. A simple strategy like that would have got you out of HLG at just on $6, if you didn't have so many.

Technical analysis is your best friend in a bear market and fundamental analysis your worst enemy because the temptation to buy because the metrics look cheap can easily get the better of you...and then the bear mauls you some more and then he bites you and then he claws you and then, oh dear, you get the idea.

Capital preservation is the name of the game in a Bear market ! Don't use the 100 day moving average as an indicator and I didn't want to get out at $6 or $5 or even $4 for that matter, it's a divvy income stock for me not a trading stock.

[Aarrgghh]

There's two things which slap me in the face about the recent drops.
First thing is gold dropped sharply on Friday, reportedly as traders were needing to sell so much gold to cover margin calls on shares. Its mind boggling that there is enough margin calls being made to shift the price of gold. If this is the case the next few days are going to be savage.
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-02-28/gold-drops-coronavirus

The second, and possibly connected thing is the current interest rate environment. With interest rates so low, gearing costs are lower, leading to more of the market on margin. Target PE ratios have been much higher, as you can't get anywhere near the same return from the bank.

The response from the market in this downturn is going to be very different to that which we have seen in the past. The downturn is going to be sharper than the past, but we might see a return to normal sooner than you might think.

[winner69]

Don't use the 100 day moving average as an indicator and I didn't want to get out at $6 or $5 or even $4 for that matter, it's a divvy income stock for me not a trading stock.

If you are pretty sure the markets going down and probably take your favourite shares down with it why use the 100MA ...,save heaps by using MA30 .....or even just selling when you decide doomsday is here

[Hoop]

Many people have not witnessed a bear market cycle..A sobering thought for them..A 60% drop in a bear market cycle is just a number..but a 60% drop this time would wipe out nearly all the gains of the 11 year old bull market cycle..the oldest bull in recent times..Impossible you may say..but bears of this magnitude do happen from time to time...even in good ol NZ e.g 1987 -1988.

11070

[Biscuit]

Many people have not witnessed a bear market cycle..A sobering thought for them..A 60% drop in a bear market cycle is just a number..but a 60% drop this time would wipe out nearly all the gains of the 11 year old bull market cycle..the oldest bull in recent times..Impossible you may say..but bears of this magnitude do happen from time to time...even in good ol NZ e.g 1987 -1988.



Nice graphic, thanks hoop, will be fun to see how this plays out.

[Beagle]

Looking at this chart from AMP Capital NZX could easily ‘correct’ by 50%

Earnings don’t support a PE of 32

Experience says when markets ‘correct’ nearly everything goes down ...even the cheap undervalued shares

All speculation anyway

#94 Average market PE of 32.7 really is stupidly high. Experts on CNBC or Friday saying their rout has seen the S&P500 fall to a forward PE of just on 18. Our market is not worth a premium to theirs and in my opinion we are more exposed with 16% of our economy being tourism last time I looked. We're also a much more open trading nation than America. If you recall we talked about 28 being stupidly high this time last year but the 30% rally in stocks in 2019 on modest earnings growth really has seen it blow out to an absurd level.

At the absolute minimum I would expect 2019's 30% gains to retrace in 2020...with more losses in 2021. Average length of a bear market according to Hoop is 21 months which is definitely food for thought for anyone looking to try and bottom pick some stocks in the next few weeks.

You are right about using 30 day MA if you are pretty sure its going down or up. I often use both that and the 100 day these days i.e. sell half when it breaks the 30 day MA and the other half at the 100 day indicator. The problem is if E starts falling it will take the a 60% fall to get valuations back to being attractive.

[winner69]

#94 Average market PE of 32.7 really is stupidly high ...

And over last 8 years implied EPS growth has been about 6% pa

[Hoop]

#94 ....At the absolute minimum I would expect 2019's 30% gains to retrace in 2020...with more losses in 2021. Average length of a bear market according to Hoop is 21 months which is definitely food for thought for anyone looking to try and bottom pick some stocks in the next few weeks.
.........

No Beagle...I did not mention 21 months..On my chart I have it at 10 months (ending at Xmas2020) assuming the Bear market cycle starts now as 79.997% of Forum members think it has..Using S&P figures the average length Bear Market cycle varies considerably from 57 days to 21 months..The S&P average is 10 months...but assuming the average will happen this time is poor odds...
Also...the bear market cycle average varies considerably from Country to Country and Market to Market..I'm not sure what the average length of the NZX Bear market Cycle..I find it hard to get NZX historical data...Winner may have this data..If we say "please" nicely he may share it with us;):D

[Beagle]

No Beagle...I did not mention 21 months..On my chart I have it at 10 months (ending at Xmas2020) assuming the Bear market cycle starts now as 79.997% of Forum members think it has..Using S&P figures the average length Bear Market cycle varies considerably from 57 days to 21 months..The S&P average is 10 months...but assuming the average will happen this time is poor odds...
Also...the bear market cycle average varies considerably from Country to Country and Market to Market..I'm not sure what the average length of the NZX Bear market Cycle..I find it hard to get NZX historical data...Winner may have this data..If we say "please" nicely he may share it with us;):D

Sorry, misinterpreted your data, thanks for clarifying as that makes me feel less morose... which will no doubt be a relief to some...come in Winner.

[couta1]

#94 Average market PE of 32.7 really is stupidly high. Experts on CNBC or Friday saying their rout has seen the S&P500 fall to a forward PE of just on 18. Our market is not worth a premium to theirs and in my opinion we are more exposed with 16% of our economy being tourism last time I looked. We're also a much more open trading nation than America. If you recall we talked about 28 being stupidly high this time last year but the 30% rally in stocks in 2019 on modest earnings growth really has seen it blow out to an absurd level.

At the absolute minimum I would expect 2019's 30% gains to retrace in 2020...with more losses in 2021. Average length of a bear market according to Hoop is 21 months which is definitely food for thought for anyone looking to try and bottom pick some stocks in the next few weeks.

You are right about using 30 day MA if you are pretty sure its going down or up. I often use both that and the 100 day these days i.e. sell half when it breaks the 30 day MA and the other half at the 100 day indicator. The problem is if E starts falling it will take the a 60% fall to get valuations back to being attractive. Beagle you need a holiday, plenty of cheap flights to various destinations locally or perhaps a go bush type of vacation. PS-If you choose the bush option dont forget to take your own water as you never know how many nasties are lurking in those pure streams.:D

[winner69]

Beagle you need a holiday, plenty of cheap flights to various destinations locally or perhaps a go bush type of vacation. PS-If you choose the bush option dont forget to take your own water as you never know how many nasties are lurking in those pure streams.:D

Good time for Beagle to do that Tuatapere Hump Ridge Track he was keen on doing not that long ago,

[King1212]

Stupid NZ herald...

[Baa_Baa]

No Beagle...I did not mention 21 months..On my chart I have it at 10 months (ending at Xmas2020) assuming the Bear market cycle starts now as 79.997% of Forum members think it has..Using S&P figures the average length Bear Market cycle varies considerably from 57 days to 21 months..The S&P average is 10 months...but assuming the average will happen this time is poor odds...
Also...the bear market cycle average varies considerably from Country to Country and Market to Market..I'm not sure what the average length of the NZX Bear market Cycle..I find it hard to get NZX historical data...Winner may have this data..If we say "please" nicely he may share it with us;):D

Hey Hoop, nice to see you back. The NZX Gross index data back to 2003 is here (https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENZ50/history?period1=1041552000&period2=1583020800&interval=1wk&filter=history&frequency=1wk), Ive selected weekly but daily historical data is available as well. You can download the data. I realise it's not back as far as you'd like but it's got the GFC in it.

[King1212]

Not being racist, just stating the opinion from first hand eye witness report, a lot of Asians have been panic buying today.

Come beagle...there were some of my Maori brothers n Pacific sisters on the photos. Why Asian also become a target?

[blackcap]

Come beagle...there were some of my Maori brothers n Pacific sisters on the photos. Why Asian also become a target?

Probably because his first hand eyewitness report that he talked to saw many (proportionally more than normal) Asians panic buying. Nothing to do with a photo. Why use inflammatory language like "target"? Its not a target. Just stating a fact.

[King1212]

Well....going to stock up too...will load my garage full of beers... forget the tissue paper...will dig the hole for a long drop at the garden. ....cherrrr

[Balance]

Probably because his first hand eyewitness report that he talked to saw many (proportionally more than normal) Asians panic buying. Nothing to do with a photo. Why use inflammatory language like "target"? Its not a target. Just stating a fact.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12312958

It's global panic buying. Instances of supermarkets being cleared of basic supplies have been reported in Australian cities as well as in New Zealand, the United States, Mexico, Italy, Ireland, England and Japan.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-epidemic-german-supermarkets-report-panic-buying/a-52597644

Germans too! Now that's rather unexpected.

[ratkin]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12312958

It's global panic buying. Instances of supermarkets being cleared of basic supplies have been reported in Australian cities as well as in New Zealand, the United States, Mexico, Italy, Ireland, England and Japan.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-epidemic-german-supermarkets-report-panic-buying/a-52597644

Germans too! Now that's rather unexpected.

Why is it always called panic buying? They are showing urgency, yes. However it is not totally unjustified. If items are running out, or likely to then why not act quickly and precure some for yourself.

It is like people accusing those who sold their shares last week as “Panicking” There was a rational reason why they were selling, it was not blind panic. This word is used far too often

[Balance]

Why is it always called panic buying? They are showing urgency, yes. However it is not totally unjustified. If items are running out, or likely to then why not act quickly and precure some for yourself.

It is like people accusing those who sold their shares last week as “Panicking” There was a rational reason why they were selling, it was not blind panic. This word is used far too often

Blind panic because there are people in places like Auckland and Sydney stocking up things like toilet papers, infant formula and fresh fruits. Stuff we produce and can produce in unlimited quantities.

It’s panic when reason & common sense completely disappear.

[King1212]

All good in the hood....loving the one off cash payment..bring it on!

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/coronavirus-not-cause-nz-recession-in-current-economic-climate-grant-robertson?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+2+Ma rch+2020

[winner69]

No worries - Jacinda and her off sider Clark keep saying the risk of A community outbreak is very low,

[winner69]

All good in the hood....loving the one off cash payment..bring it on!

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/coronavirus-not-cause-nz-recession-in-current-economic-climate-grant-robertson?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+2+Ma rch+2020

Help pay for the overseas trip ..flying AIR of course.

[Beagle]

Beagle you need a holiday, plenty of cheap flights to various destinations locally or perhaps a go bush type of vacation. PS-If you choose the bush option dont forget to take your own water as you never know how many nasties are lurking in those pure streams.:D
$9 flights to anywhere sold out in a flash, for those that could somehow log on to AIR's system. You're right on your second point. Getting giardia which is widespread in many of our rivers and streams is no laughing matter and from first hand experience I can tell you its extremely debilitating and you can end up very sick for a few days.


Good time for Beagle to do that Tuatapere Hump Ridge Track he was keen on doing not that long ago,
$9 to Invercargill would have been pretty cool if I could have got into their system. I did check for later this month at a time when I could possibly go down and it was ~ $400 each way.


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12312958

It's global panic buying. Instances of supermarkets being cleared of basic supplies have been reported in Australian cities as well as in New Zealand, the United States, Mexico, Italy, Ireland, England and Japan.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-epidemic-german-supermarkets-report-panic-buying/a-52597644
Germans too! Now that's rather unexpected.

Its actually not panic, its a rational psychological human response according to a psychologist on breakfast T.V. this morning. People are concerned for their future so want to do something to proactively mitigate the risk.

[Hoop]

Amazing how things can radically change in such a short time period.. NZ has all of a sudden has got a few major economic negatives...The virus threat, A large group of inexperienced people in Government creating an "ability to manage effectively when under pressure" threat (Grant Robertson excluded), the sudden change in buying/selling behaviour, both Domestically and Globally (a bigger threat), and the drought where 50% of the population live (also a bigger threat)...A perfect storm (pun :p).

While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed the worst and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There is one certainty of the future of a people of the resources, intelligence and character of the people of the United States that is, prosperity.
-Herbert Hoover
— Address at annual dinner of the Chamber of Commerce of the United States (1 May 1930).

[Beagle]

Good quote Hoop. What else can the pollies do but talk things up and assure us everything is under control...YEAH RIGHT, is it too early for a Tui ?

[Hoop]

Hey Hoop, nice to see you back. The NZX Gross index data back to 2003 is here (https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENZ50/history?period1=1041552000&period2=1583020800&interval=1wk&filter=history&frequency=1wk), Ive selected weekly but daily historical data is available as well. You can download the data. I realise it's not back as far as you'd like but it's got the GFC in it.
Thanks Baa-Baa.
Yeah the problem I have about freely available NZ data is pre-2003...That makes things hard when number crunching the very long term (secular) cycles

[Hoop]

Good quote Hoop. What else can the pollies do but talk things up and assure us everything is under control...YEAH RIGHT, is it too early for a Tui ?
Never too early:D:D....We should go visiting King1212 ..Rumour has it he has stockpiled for Armageddon and has a garage full of the stuff

[Beagle]

Never too early:D:D....We should go visiting King1212 ..Rumour has it he has stockpiled for Armageddon and has a garage full of the stuff

Better off with hard liquor, keeps longer and gets better with age. Stockpiled any decent scotch King1212 ?

[fungus pudding]

Better off with hard liquor, keeps longer and gets better with age. Stockpiled any decent scotch King1212 ?

What rubbish. Back in my drinking days it wouldn't keep - even for a week.

[Beagle]

What rubbish. Back in my drinking days it wouldn't keep - even for a week.

:lol: My storage system seems to have a few leaks too :)

[winner69]

Wonder if all those who switched their term deposits into yield plays for big divies have noticed the market is down.

[peat]

Wonder if all those who switched their term deposits into yield plays for big divies have noticed the market is down.
this is exactly why I've always argued against this use of equities within a portfolio - whereas true TD's hold their value AND yield (something if not a lot). Bonds of course have gained further in capital value , so a true hedge , although nominally gains are lesser than equity's losses - of course all depending on your percentage mix.

[Joshuatree]

What rubbish. Back in my drinking days it wouldn't keep - even for a week.

Fine misty memories when as late teenagers we accessed a couple of large UNrinsed wood oak (i think)whisky barrels. About 3 gallons of water in each soaked and rolled them every day for a few weeks gave what seemd like effect wise, half strength whisky then we had a brace of merry parties.:t_up:

[King1212]

Any time people... couple keqs in the garage...with great cigars.....


Did I mention cuban cigar?????

[kiora]

4 weeks ago with supply chains being disrupted I was thinking bear and rebalanced my portfolio
Now with so many posters stating they are out & sitting on cash
Interest rates will drop further
When will the markets turn?
Typically when everything points negative and when the majority say it will drop further :)
I'll be watching the turn around in the NZ $ US for a change in the wind

[iceman]

4 weeks ago with supply chains being disrupted I was thinking bear and rebalanced my portfolio
Now with so many posters stating they are out & sitting on cash
Interest rates will drop further
When will the markets turn?
Typically when everything points negative and when the majority say it will drop further :)
I'll be watching the turn around in the NZ $ US for a change in the wind

With many economists now picking further and possibly significant OCR decreases, we may see the NZ$ drop further. I hope so. But I am not so sure the RB will drop much further as they ask themselves if it will achieve anything. I think it is more likely, particularly that we are now close to an election, that Robertson starts spraying out money left (not right) and center !

[Raz]

With many economists now picking further and possibly significant OCR decreases, we may see the NZ$ drop further. I hope so. But I am not so sure the RB will drop much further as they ask themselves if it will achieve anything. I think it is more likely, particularly that we are now close to an election, that Robertson starts spraying out money left (not right) and center !

I have most of my assets/investments offshore, approx. 80%, so forex gains expected however as a whole the currency drop will make most kiwi's poorer. Far from ideal. So we are looking at a demand shock around 20% so far for many sectors without even a community transmission yet. GFC was 40% average demand shock in the US which resulted in major business failure hmmmm

[iceman]

I have most of my assets/investments offshore, approx. 80%, so forex gains expected however as a whole the currency drop will make most kiwi's poorer. Far from ideal. So we are looking at a demand shock around 20% so far for many sectors without even a community transmission yet. GFC was 40% average demand shock in the US which resulted in major business failure hmmmm

Same here Raz, all my professional income in USD and about half of my investment income offshore so a lower NZ$ is OK by me. You are right that a low NZ$ long term does indeed make many Kiwis poorer but can/will be a short term buffer for exporters and jobs in the affected industries. We sure live in uncertain times.

[couta1]

Sorry Bear lovers but the Bear has been muzzled for the day and will be constrained to the naughty corner without a honey pot.

[winner69]

Sorry Bear lovers but the Bear has been muzzled for the day and will be constrained to the naughty corner without a honey pot.

What happens if some stocks go above the 100MA ....:t_up::);)

[couta1]

What happens if some stocks go above the 100MA ....:t_up::);) Beagles going to start buying and paying a lot more than he had to.:D

[Beagle]

Sorry Bear lovers but the Bear has been muzzled for the day and will be constrained to the naughty corner without a honey pot.

Like "The Terminator" he says "I'll be back" Good luck with hoping today's bounce lasts.

[couta1]

Like "The Terminator" he says "I'll be back" Good luck with hoping today's bounce lasts. Milking it mate.:D

[tzbang]

Like "The Terminator" he says "I'll be back" Good luck with hoping today's bounce lasts.

"There's no fate but what we make for ourselves." — Sarah Connor

[Beagle]

"The Terminator, (Beagle) knew, he tried to tell us" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umH0ZpLaAwI

Are algorithms and derivatives the weapons of mass financial destruction ?

[tzbang]

Ha ha ha

"Our destiny was never to stop judgement day.. merely to survive it.. together." — John Connor

[couta1]

Hope everyone is embracing the Teddy Bear today.

[Biscuit]

Hope everyone is embracing the Teddy Bear today.

Personally, I wouldn't get too close to Teddy. China currently has a deadly epidemic and an economic crisis. Fixing the epidemic risks further economic damage, fixing the economic damage involves letting go of the handbrake on the epidemic.

[Beagle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSeKFsl4vso Just for you Coutts

[hamish]

Found this an insightful article - not so much the headline, the thought behind it.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/this-is-a-huge-buying-opportunity

[Beagle]

My brother phoned me up on the weekend and asked whether he should transfer his Kiwisaver from its current growth fund to a conservative fund. He's approaching retirement so I suggested that was a good proactive step to take.

I got to thinking this morning, how many tens of billions are invested in Kiwisaver funds and what is the impact if lots of other people are thinking the same ?

Many Kiwisaver providers funds may have to liquidate growth shares on the NZX regardless of price and it will flow into bonds and cash. Effect on the NZX ? Hmmm

[Sideshow Bob]

My brother phoned me up on the weekend and asked whether he should transfer his Kiwisaver from its current growth fund to a conservative fund. He's approaching retirement so I suggested that was a good proactive step to take.

I got to thinking this morning, how many tens of billions are invested in Kiwisaver funds and what is the impact if lots of other people are thinking the same ?

Many Kiwisaver providers funds may have to liquidate growth shares on the NZX regardless of price and it will flow into bonds and cash. Effect on the NZX ? Hmmm

I moved into conservative a few months ago. Looked at wife's (growth) and then own shares (primarily A2).

Over the last 12 months until Monday, has still down 7.64% (Milford)

Very slightly down with the effects of the virus (<1%). No doubt helped with a little weakening of the NZD.

[Timesurfer]

I got to thinking this morning, how many tens of billions are invested in Kiwisaver funds and what is the impact if lots of other people are thinking the same ?

While I hear what you are saying and it is an interesting conundrum. However, in reality I think you are over estimating the investing IQ or management of the average punter. And on the flip side you have the Government pushing people into higher risk portfolios by default.

[Sideshow Bob]

My brother phoned me up on the weekend and asked whether he should transfer his Kiwisaver from its current growth fund to a conservative fund. He's approaching retirement so I suggested that was a good proactive step to take.

I got to thinking this morning, how many tens of billions are invested in Kiwisaver funds and what is the impact if lots of other people are thinking the same ?

Many Kiwisaver providers funds may have to liquidate growth shares on the NZX regardless of price and it will flow into bonds and cash. Effect on the NZX ? Hmmm

Probably also depend on their stated investment strategy/fund rules. Flow of new funds out of wages would still need to go somewhere.

[peat]

My brother phoned me up on the weekend and asked whether he should transfer his Kiwisaver from its current growth fund to a conservative fund. He's approaching retirement so I suggested that was a good proactive step to take.


How close
If a few years still I would think he should leave it alone, especially if he doesn't need to cash it all out the moment of turning 65. I imagine a beagle brother would be doing okay for himself in life.

[macduffy]

While I hear what you are saying and it is an interesting conundrum. However, in reality I think you are over estimating the investing IQ or management of the average punter. And on the flip side you have the Government pushing people into higher risk portfolios by default.

Yes, this, or some future government may have an awkward time explaining why it was encouraging savers to take more risk at this particularly risky time!

[King1212]

Time to become a refugee at BBOZ OZ!!!

[Beagle]

How close
If a few years still I would think he should leave it alone, especially if he doesn't need to cash it all out the moment of turning 65. I imagine a beagle brother would be doing okay for himself in life.

5 years. Easy enough for him to switch back when things settle down a bit.

[Baa_Baa]

5 years. Easy enough for him to switch back when things settle down a bit.

'Trading' the kiwisaver by switching a long term growth investment into a conservative fund, simply to avoid short term capital losses (on paper that aren't realised), eliminates the shorter term opportunity that the fund has to accumulate shares for it's holders at ever decreasing prices.

Best imo to forget about the capital value in the short to medium term and enjoy the accumulation of cheap units while the prices are suppressed. Kiwisaver funds DON'T stop buying just because there's a market downturn, in fact you'd hope they are buying like crazy! Truckloads of money flow into Kiwisaver funds every week, it has to keep going into some investment, they just don't stop buying.

I suppose it depends on ones timeframe, though 5 years would be ample I'd think to see an accumulation at ever lower prices boosting portfolio holdings and a return to capital growth.

[Peitro]

I got to thinking this morning, how many tens of billions are invested in Kiwisaver funds and what is the impact if lots of other people are thinking the same ?


Adding to this is all the kids looking at first home purchases, with half their deposit sitting in a growth KiwiSaver fund.

[peat]

Adding to this is all the kids looking at first home purchases, with half their deposit sitting in a growth KiwiSaver fund.
if that's their intention then it shouldn't be in a growth fund.
its not rocket surgery.

[stoploss]

if that's their intention then it shouldn't be in a growth fund.
its not rocket surgery.

Surely depends on the timeline ?

[peat]

Surely depends on the timeline ?
I guess ive assumed the timeline is within a few years if its being described as a deposit on a house.

[Peitro]

if that's their intention then it shouldn't be in a growth fund.
its not rocket surgery.

Agree, but these kids have never seen a bear, and not everyone can conduct brain science.

Examples of this on r/personalfinancenz, with people that have gone unconditional and money still sitting in growth.

[King1212]

Interesting reading...

https://www.propertyinvestorcentre.co.nz/incoming-recession-will-present-the-biggest-opportunity-we-have-had-for-over-a-decade/

[fungus pudding]

Agree, but these kids have never seen a bear, and not everyone can conduct brain science.

Examples of this on r/personalfinancenz, with people that have gone unconditional and money still sitting in growth.

I can't help wondering if the Corona virus should lead to a beer market?

[Schrodinger]

Boom S&P up 4.2%

[Beagle]

Feels to me like this rally is like building a house on sand. Once the economic effects of the worldwide pandemic start to flow through the changing economic tide will eat away at the sand under the foundations...

[King1212]

smart investors will take these opportunities to sell ...but...beagle..many still in denial. Uncle Trump was nagging and in denial too.....when he saw the DOW down.


It is very tempted to get in....however, could easily trap in the bear market....

[couta1]

smart investors will take these opportunities to sell ...but...beagle..many still in denial. Uncle Trump was nagging and in denial too.....when he saw the DOW down.


It is very tempted to get in....however, could easily trap in the bear market.... He that keeps observing the weather never sows and never reaps a harvest.

[Beagle]

The dog is not in denial. I always trust my nose and this reeks of a dead cat bounce. I am always happy to follow my own nose.

[peat]

Feels to me like this rally is like building a house on sand. Once the economic effects of the worldwide pandemic start to flow through the changing economic tide will eat away at the sand under the foundations...



He that keeps observing the weather never sows and never reaps a harvest.


I feel like I am reading parables at Sunday School

Certainly not buying for the LT portfolio on the bouncy days. But am day trading off the lows.

[winner69]

Reddell a bit sad today as to how things might pan out.




If I'm underwhelmed at the political leadership around these issues, it is perhaps even more worrying to look at the officials and agencies supposed to support the Cabinet. Our Treasury is led by someone with no New Zealand experience and (more concerningly, as I noted when she was appointed) no experience or background in national economic policymaking. Our Reserve Bank is led by someone with little demonstrated capacity for deep and innovative thought, who has displayed more interest in things he isn't responsible for than those he is. MBIE is led by a former HR manager, and I could go on. Perhaps there are some exceptionally able people the next tiers down, helping frame big-picture thinking and proposing well-thought-out specifics, but the names don't really spring to mind. Our public service (led from SSC, enabled by governments) hasn't encouraged the fostering of those sorts of capabilities. Our institutions have been allowed to run down, under successive governments, and we pay the price for that in tough and highly uncertain times.

https://croakingcassandra.com/2020/03/05/take-a-macro-approach/

[Biscuit]

I feel like I am reading parables at Sunday School



The knowledge of the secrets of the market has been given to you, but not to them. Whoever has will be given more, and he will have an abundance. Whoever does not have, even what he has will be taken from him. This is why I speak to them in parables

[davflaws]

To him that hath shall be given. From him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath.

[winner69]

Feels to me like this rally is like building a house on sand. Once the economic effects of the worldwide pandemic start to flow through the changing economic tide will eat away at the sand under the foundations...

You reading too many papers and watching too much CNBC and stressing out ...not good for you

NZX50 only down 3% since Feb 21 record high

If you had spent the last two weeks tramping down Southland way and out of touch with the world and saw NZX where it is today you wouldn’t give a toss.

[Mickey]

The dog is not in denial. I always trust my nose and this reeks of a dead cat bounce. I am always happy to follow my own nose.

I agree Beagle. Today's NZX bounce is just off the back of the US super Tuesday results, which was a temporary smoke screen for what caused the previous market declines. I see US futures are well into the red already suggesting a likely fall tomorrow. At least the bounce gave me an opportunity to exit a couple of stocks that I think are going to be heavily influenced by fear in the coming days and weeks and also from what happened in Australia today regarding staff not turning up for work at an elderly care home following the death of a resident from covid-19. Perhaps a great time for day traders but for me - a watch and wait with perhaps some prudent buys in defensive stocks as opportunities present themselves.

[couta1]

Have to admit the bounce today looks fabricated.

[Beagle]

You reading too many papers and watching too much CNBC and stressing out ...not good for you

NZX50 only down 3% since Feb 21 record high

If you had spent the last two weeks tramping down Southland way and out of touch with the world and saw NZX where it is today you wouldn’t give a toss.

Proverbs 27:12
The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

[peat]

NZX50 only down 3% since Feb 21 record high



Yes I was amazed today at the portfolio recovery. I did a stocktake on 22nd Feb and yes almost back there.

[Beagle]

The opportunity to hide from the bear is quite obvious for those who haven't already done so. Fair value Dow futures down over 300 points as I type and then there's this news item just released. https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/beginning-of-spread-patient-had-significant-interaction-with-public-medical-centre-employee/ar-BB10Lb51?ocid=spartandhp
Be careful out there folks.

[couta1]

The opportunity to hide from the bear is quite obvious for those who haven't already done so. Fair value Dow futures down over 300 points as I type and then there's this news item just released. https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/beginning-of-spread-patient-had-significant-interaction-with-public-medical-centre-employee/ar-BB10Lb51?ocid=spartandhp
Be careful out there folks. Looking like The Whipsaw will be back in action tomorrow but I reckon monday will be worse.

[fungus pudding]

The knowledge of the secrets of the market has been given to you, but not to them. Whoever has will be given more, and he will have an abundance. Whoever does not have, even what he has will be taken from him. This is why I speak to them in parables

So whoever does not have will have that which he doesn't have taken from him, so that he no longer has what he still hasn't got.
(Fungus 36:12)

[Cadalac123]

The opportunity to hide from the bear is quite obvious for those who haven't already done so. Fair value Dow futures down over 300 points as I type and then there's this news item just released. https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/beginning-of-spread-patient-had-significant-interaction-with-public-medical-centre-employee/ar-BB10Lb51?ocid=spartandhp
Be careful out there folks.

the deadly virus? honestly people who write these articles are milking this story a little far..

[davflaws]

So whoever does not have will have that which he doesn't have taken from him, so that he no longer has what he still hasn't got.
(Fungus 36:12)
You get it.

[Beagle]

the deadly virus? honestly people who write these articles are milking this story a little far..

How is 3.4% death rate not deadly ? FYI - Online Dictionary definition of "deadly" (emphasis added to relevant part).

deadly
[ˈdɛdli]

ADJECTIVE
causing or able to cause death.
"a deadly weapon" · [more]
synonyms:
fatal · lethal · mortal · death-dealing · life-threatening · dangerous · [more]

[couta1]

That bar today on the weekly NZX bar chart looks so out of place its riding for a hiding tomorrow or monday.PS-The Aussie one looks better.

[ratkin]

What happened to this bear market we were all prematurely signing up for?

[Crypto Crude]

Proverbs 27:12
The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

LOL...
:eek2:
.^sc

[couta1]

What happened to this bear market we were all prematurely signing up for? What bear market, I ticked the 3rd box down along with 316 others. Lol

[Beagle]

What happened to this bear market we were all prematurely signing up for?

Tough day to be in cash but my sense is the economic fallout from this virus as it spreads to become a global pandemic is going to be really significant and that fallout will flow through into share prices at some stage fairly soon.

This "Bears" repeating :) Proverbs 27:12
The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

[mshierlaw]

What bear market, I ticked the 3rd box down along with 316 others. Lol

Me too where are the 315 others?

[iceman]

Me too where are the 315 others?

Guilty as charged and see no reason to change that belief. We have a serious short term economic downturn happening right now but around the World we are already seeing Governments and Central Banks reacting and with the elections in the USA later this year, all will be done to keep the markets humming !

Agree with Beagle's proverb but not sure which side is which in it :-)

[janner]

LOL...
:eek2:
.^sc

Not saying that Beagle is correct.

However... Proverbs have stood the test of time.

Can I add ??.

Buyer beware.

[freddagg]

Me too where are the 315 others?

I ticked the bottom box because when all the hysteria has washed through the system people will still want a return on their money.

[ratkin]

Funny how the bottom tickers are only showing up now :-).
Lets see if they are as prominent when the next selloff starts

[Timesurfer]

Me too where are the 315 others?

Yup. Interest rates at near zero, a sideways sharemarket is still a hopeful option.

[freddagg]

Funny how the bottom tickers are only showing up now :-).
Lets see if they are as prominent when the next selloff starts

I find your insinuation is offensive. I ticked it a few days ago

[davflaws]

Funny how the bottom tickers are only showing up now :-).
Lets see if they are as prominent when the next selloff starts

Ya what? People made judgements and ticked boxes. They might or might not have bought or sold shares accordingly. This isn't a pissing contest.

[Beagle]

I have to say I am impressed with the intelligence of the vast majority on here. More than 97% of people voting think at the very least we are in for a serious correction.
A correction by definition is a 10% fall and drilling down into the nuance of this a serious correction by implication suggests quite a bit more than 10% but less than the 20% definition of a bear market.
Yesterday's bounce took us to less than 4% from the all time high.
I hope those within that 97% group who haven't already taken the opportunity to make appropriate portfolio changes before, took the opportunity on the bounce yesterday.
My sense is that was the last chance to exit stocks like THL, AIR and SKC who are directly in the path of this storm before the effect on their operations and consequent share price drop becomes extremely serious and readily apparent.

I've barked very loud and clearly on this issue and started a poll to help everyone think about things so I genuinely hope that's helped some people dodge this bear which I feel is going to do a LOT of damage over time.

[fungus pudding]

I have to say I am impressed with the intelligence of the vast majority on here.

Surely you don't consider your poll to be an IQ test?

[Beagle]

Surely you don't consider your poll to be an IQ test?

All I will say to response to that is that its interesting to observe how well a portfolio of the most favoured stocks in the annual stock picking competition has done compared to the NZX50 over the years.

What this suggests to me is that the average participant on here is either smarter, better informed or both, than the average investor on the NZX. I look at the poll result in that context. Its clear I voted for a Bear Market as did more than 80% of people on here. People can draw their own conclusions as to whether this might suggest a bear market is more likely than not.

[iceman]

Hey Couta when are you taking Beagle down to Queenstown ? He needs a break and should start pedaling down there (he won't fly). He's gone WOKE on us, i.e. those that do not share his view are of less intelligence. Never thought I'd see that :-) Next he'll be voting for James Shaw

[blackcap]

Well it seems 80% of respondents to this survey are wrong. We are currently not in a Bear market (by definition) though 80% of people seem to think we are. I wonder who the intelligent are.

[couta1]

Well it seems 80% of respondents to this survey are wrong. We are currently not in a Bear market (by definition) though 80% of people seem to think we are. I wonder who the intelligent are. Exactly, never follow the crowd or be a Lemming, follow the beat of your own drum ,now that's being intelligent.

[Beagle]

Well it seems 80% of respondents to this survey are wrong. We are currently not in a Bear market (by definition) though 80% of people seem to think we are. I wonder who the intelligent are.

You are being pedantic and splitting hairs. Its quite clear from the overall tone of the post that I asked, is the Bull market dead and are we heading towards a bear market.
There's always an especially clever few in the room who are too clever for their own good sometimes eh mate :p

[blackcap]

You are being pedantic and splitting hairs. Its quite clear from the overall tone of the post that I asked, is the Bull market dead and are we heading towards a bear market.
There's always an especially clever few in the room who are too clever for their own good sometimes eh mate :p

Haha yes I was being pedantic, but I also remember a maxim my mother told me of not counting chickens. We are not there yet and there is no certainty that we are going to get there :P

[peat]

my experience is that the majority are rarely correct in the financial markets
the examples of magazine covers talking about a bull market only for the bear to suddenly appear at that very moment are very well known

[couta1]

I love all Bears ranging from the Teddy variety right upto a rabid Grizzly, they all present opportunities of various levels.

[winner69]

I love all Bears ranging from the Teddy variety right upto a rabid Grizzly, they all present opportunities of various levels.

Still take your grand kids to teddy bears picnics couta

Not safe to do so for a while though

[couta1]

Still take your grand kids to teddy bears picnics couta

Not safe to do so for a while though Yeah mate, I just spray the bears down with a mix of water and eucalyptus oil, if fact I spray a lot of stuff with that mix.

[Beagle]

I love all Bears ranging from the Teddy variety right upto a rabid Grizzly, they all present opportunities of various levels.

What you and I need is one of these teddy bear type dogs to give enormous comfort while the Grizzly bear rages around
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&id=82D05C5A20590A78AD94D1D0CAA7A86CB6A4771B&thid=OIP.Y2AB9iye5JTxZBiPraKr3gHaFM&mediaurl=https%3A%2F%2Fthehappypuppysite.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2017%2F12%2Fzuchon.jpg&exph=843&expw=1200&q=teddy+bear+dog&selectedindex=0&ajaxhist=0&vt=0&eim=1

https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&id=DEB6704832206B54FB5D3B1F458949D9E1D157D8&thid=OIP.SYWoN93J2hDYoEyZI769PAHaFj&mediaurl=http%3A%2F%2F1.bp.blogspot.com%2F-UBc_9PKFook%2FUBJM9Hr1_7I%2FAAAAAAAAANo%2FJ_hEoQ3x zoY%2Fs1600%2Fbrown%2BBear2.jpg&exph=1200&expw=1600&q=grizzly+bear&selectedindex=9&qpvt=grizzly+bear&ajaxhist=0&vt=0&eim=1

Just don't ask the teddy bear dog to save you from the Grizzly bear...I think its certain who would win the fight :lol:

[Beagle]

Haha yes I was being pedantic, but I also remember a maxim my mother told me of not counting chickens. We are not there yet and there is no certainty that we are going to get there :P

You know what they say about death and taxes eh ;)

[winner69]

Getting this book next week ....good read I reckon. John Kay always a good read.

Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making for an unknowable future by Mervyn King and John Kay.

[blackcap]

You know what they say about death and taxes eh ;)

Haha yes they certainly do say that about those two. I'm not saying a bear market is not going to happen. But generally these things happen when most ppl do not predict them. Time will tell. Markets still have a way to go before they are in the bear. If you look at a 10 year chart of the NZ50 well its very telling. Market now is only where it was 2 months ago. So really nothing at this stage is lost if you forget Jan and Feb.

[Beagle]

Haha yes they certainly do say that about those two. I'm not saying a bear market is not going to happen. But generally these things happen when most ppl do not predict them. Time will tell. Markets still have a way to go before they are in the bear. If you look at a 10 year chart of the NZ50 well its very telling. Market now is only where it was 2 months ago. So really nothing at this stage is lost if you forget Jan and Feb.

That's what is most concerning. After an ~ 11 year Bull market valuations had become really stretched already without this new risk.
To date the market only appears to have reacted to a very minor extent. Nobody knows the extent to which this virus disrupts the economy but I would have thought its pretty clear with an average forward NZX multiple of over 32 the risk is to the downside before the virus. In a world-wide pandemic situation the risk to the downside could be very serious.

AFAIK 16% of the NZ economy is based on tourism, then there's the education sector, exports of various commodities e.t.c
Its going to be interesting to see how GDP is affected if we all have to go into lockdown for a period of time !
Despite yesterday's fall the Dow futures are down another 300 points as I type...just thought I'd mentioned that if anyone wants to take a bit of risk off before the weekend.

Take care out there folks and avoid large gatherings of people...this thing is probably already widespread here with potentially considerable numbers already having it but currently asymptomatic.

[winner69]

That's what is most concerning. After an ~ 11 year Bull market valuations had become really stretched already without this new risk.
To date the market only appears to have reacted to a very minor extent. Nobody knows the extent to which this virus disrupts the economy but I would have thought its pretty clear with an average forward NZX multiple of over 32 the risk is to the downside before the virus. In a world-wide pandemic situation the risk to the downside could be very serious.

AFAIK 16% of the NZ economy is based on tourism, then there's the education sector, exports of various commodities e.t.c
Its going to be interesting to see how GDP is affected if we all have to go into lockdown for a period of time !
Despite yesterday's fall the Dow futures are down another 300 points as I type...just thought I'd mentioned that if anyone wants to take a bit of risk off before the weekend.

Take care out there folks and avoid large gatherings of people...this thing is probably already widespread here with potentially considerable numbers already having it but currently asymptomatic.

Beagle - tourism is about 5%/6% of NZ GDP...with maybe another 3%/4% indirectlyfrom flow on effects

Overseas visitors do account for about 20% of our export earnings

Interest Govt talking about supporting business in these times ...most of the talk is about logging regions and very little about tourist hotspots. Going to spend a few mill in the hope of getting more tourists to come.

[Hoop]

Shanghai Share Market says "All over Red Rover"
Shanghai a leading indicator by about 3 weeks..... first infection ...first market correction ....first market recovery

11083

[peat]

Gaynor thinking its bearish now. but not coz of the virus , but because everything is so over valued.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/brian-gaynor-when-will-the-market-correction-be-over (paywall)

"
F&P Healthcare is a great company but if its net profit increases by 25 percent each year over the next five years it will still have a P/E in excess of 20 in early 2025 at its current share price"

[Crypto Crude]

Well it seems 80% of respondents to this survey are wrong. We are currently not in a Bear market (by definition) though 80% of people seem to think we are. I wonder who the intelligent are.

You might want to change that statement after today man...
:cool:
.^sc

[kiora]

F&P Healthcare is a great company but if its net profit increases by 25 percent each year over the next five years it will still have a P/E in excess of 20 in early 2025 at its current share price"
This year I'm looking for more surprises on the upside with no supply chain disruptions.

[couta1]

You might want to change that statement after today man...
:cool:
.^sc Why would he? still no bear as not 20% down from highs yet and certainly not consistently at this point in time, the market is all over the place because of fear not a Bear.