Shopping list - Best companies to snap up

[ratkin]

Right now markets are tumbling, and at some point there are going to be some cracking good bargains emerging. Which companies should be first on the shopping list?

[couta1]

Right now markets are tumbling, and at some point there are going to be some cracking good bargains emerging. Which companies should be first on the shopping list? Well just maybe the bargain time is now not at some point, some point may be too late. PS-Small shopping list which is A2 and HLG and I'm already shopping.

[winner69]

Baked beans, pasta, tomato sauce and loo paper

[bull....]

too much uncertainty for me to gamble on buying anything , ill rather reduce all debt and make sure my cupboards are full

[Biscuit]

If things really looked like returning to normal any time soon, then the hardest hit sectors would be the ones to get into, and exporters that are going to gain from the lower $. But I haven't got a shopping list yet. Currently, my JPY is doing ok, probably get more of that before looking at shares.

[Beagle]

Too early to tell. Making a call now is like saying I am going shopping next week at Countdown and Pak and Save and drawing up my shopping list now without knowing what's going to be on half price special.

What we can say with some degree of certainty is that if this gets really ugly, classic cyclical's are possibly going to head towards the bottom of their cycle. Any company with a weak balance sheet is very vulnerable. I would think stocks likely to be on half price special sometime later this year or 2021 might include, THL, AIR, SML and NZR. Of those with their current boards and management I would only buy AIR or THL at the right price.

[ratkin]

Can we not keep bear market stuff on the bear market thread
and virus stuff on the virus thread.

Only Couta and Biscuit managed to stay on topic

[percy]

Right now markets are tumbling, and at some point there are going to be some cracking good bargains emerging. Which companies should be first on the shopping list?

Should a vaccine be found for the Corona Virus, I would expect Australian and NZ Govts will call on Ebos to distribute it.
Other than that, I would sit on the sidelines,until the market turns up.
I remember the day of 9/11 my portfolio fell $80,000.A month later it had recovered the $80,000 and then the following month it was up $80,000.
So only time will tell whether we are in a 1987,GFC or a 9/11 crash.
Companies that have the capacity to pay increasing fully imputed divies,should be the first to recover. [I note both HGH and PGW ,each are paying a cent higher divie than I expected].
The world will not end.

[bull....]

Can we not keep bear market stuff on the bear market thread
and virus stuff on the virus thread.

Only Couta and Biscuit managed to stay on topic

everyone has lol how can know what to buy and what companies to buy with any certainty when you dont know how long the virus is around or the end result of it. its all related. as percy says wait till they find a vaccine then your have certainty of business outcomes otherwise your just gambling

[Blue Skies]

FPH, I know some will say PE too stretched, but it's always been stretched & too expensive, I remember several years ago even at around $6 it was considered way too expensive by many.

IMHO this is a massively SP changing event for them with their excellent respiratory devices & consumables for both hospitals and home care (no devices made in China) sold in over 120 countries.

I guess that PE will rapidly shrink this year anyway.

[Blue Skies]

Baked beans, pasta, tomato sauce and loo paper


You forgot the Tim Tams!

[Grimy]

Making a call now is like saying I am going shopping next week at Countdown and Pak and Save and drawing up my shopping list now without knowing what's going to be on half price special.

I like to make my list anyway and then check the mailer for the specials-anything not urgent on the list can wait another week, because sooner or later it will be on special...…..

I have quite a few names written down to watch, but SKC is near the top. It is the first stock I sold when things started to look a little serious and glad I did.
A lot of headwinds for it and I don't think it will be a bargain this week, but at some stage it should be a good buy again. Treated me well in the past.

[ratkin]

Personally had just planned to buy back all my sold stocks at some point, but at this rate will have plenty left over.
It is probably too soon now,but like Grimy said it is good to have a list with price targets etc, as it helps to avoid those impulse (it looks cheap!!) buys.
Will Probably let the charts decide when the buys occur, TA normally comes into its own in times like this

[Beagle]

Personally had just planned to buy back all my sold stocks at some point, but at this rate will have plenty left over.
It is probably too soon now,but like Grimy said it is good to have a list with price targets etc, as it helps to avoid those impulse (it looks cheap!!) buys.
Will Probably let the charts decide when the buys occur, TA normally comes into its own in times like this

Agree 100%. I just throw any FA out the window, its almost completely useless as in a real bear market one has no idea what the E is going to be. The risk with FA is one can be sorely tempted to get back in because it looks so cheap it must be a good buy...and then the bear just mauls you more and then some more for good measure.

My tactic will be for the market to tell me when my former stocks have been de-risked properly when they're in a new uptrend, whenever that might be and it might not be for quite some time, possibly not even till late 2021 or even 2022 and I've got to learn to be okay with that. (Hopefully this old dog can learn a new trick)
Buying a half sized position in ABC or XYZ when it breaks back up through the 30 day MA and the other half on a break back up through the 100 day MA to confirm the uptrend is going to be my "go too" TA methodology. Not sure what I am going to do with all my spare time not needing to bother with fundamental analysis for a while...I better get a new hobby lol

[Bjauck]

Agree 100%. I just throw any FA out the window, its almost completely useless as in a real bear market one has no idea what the E is going to be. The risk with FA is one can be sorely tempted to get back in because it looks so cheap it must be a good buy...and then the bear just mauls you more and then some more for good measure....l

It does seem there is likely to be a constant dripping each day of bad stories as the virus spreads. So I think there will be a real chance of a miasma descending on the market with over-compensation for expected risks. I am not sure at this stage what to put on my watch list.

[Grimy]

Personally had just planned to buy back all my sold stocks at some point
Pretty much what I'm looking at doing.

[Lewylewylewy]

What a good idea for a thread, because it's something that's on all our minds.

One approach might be to list what's not on your list. Of course, it's all a matter of timing. Picking the lows and buying at the latest time before it's likely top stat going up.

I think SUM could be good after 9(?) months. I can't help wondering if they've suggested zero growth to emphasize the need to reneg deals with the govt... and rightly so.

ATM are expecting good things. Could be +50% if you pick the low correctly.

AIA and AIR have taken a pounding as they've been in the spotlight. Obvious future target.

Ports will be a nice item to pick up cheaply, as they're usually expensive.

MEL will be an interesting one to watch. A quick purchase post positive news on tiwai will do well, or picking the bottom of the oversell on negative news could be good if it drops enough to fairly represent a good PE.

M7T over on the ASX is looking interesting.

What's not on my shopping list, which usually is: SCL, SEK and a few others inc
FPH, which i have as too expensive. More than usual. While they might do well in the coming year, i expect the following year will dip. The coming year is already priced in, imo.

[Waikaka]

Picking up some soggy gutter butts with maybe a puff or two left

Cautiously buying in order of conviction:

NZR
TPW
MPG
TWR
STU
SKT
NZME

Some pretty ugly names in there but I imagine most will be around in a few years and should be worth more than they are priced at the moment.

[fish]

What a good idea for a thread, because it's something that's on all our minds.

One approach might be to list what's not on your list. Of course, it's all a matter of timing. Picking the lows and buying at the latest time before it's likely top stat going up.

I think SUM could be good after 9(?) months. I can't help wondering if they've suggested zero growth to emphasize the need to reneg deals with the govt... and rightly so.

ATM are expecting good things. Could be +50% if you pick the low correctly.

AIA and AIR have taken a pounding as they've been in the spotlight. Obvious future target.

Ports will be a nice item to pick up cheaply, as they're usually expensive.

MEL will be an interesting one to watch. A quick purchase post positive news on tiwai will do well, or picking the bottom of the oversell on negative news could be good if it drops enough to fairly represent a good PE.

M7T over on the ASX is looking interesting.

What's not on my shopping list, which usually is: SCL, SEK and a few others inc
FPH, which i have as too expensive. More than usual. While they might do well in the coming year, i expect the following year will dip. The coming year is already priced in, imo.

Similar to my strategy.
Careful choice and timing.Being bold when other are fearful . and
Not buying at the moment-I am very wary of catching falling knives and will take my last NZX order off today-its a stock which I had reasoned will have cheaper costs because of covid-19 but as beagle says fundamentals do not matter too much-at least until people start buying.
Would also like to buy back into MEL and possibly AIR.
FPH will be watched closely.CDC have just announced some small changes in causes mortality.Deaths due to influenza/pneumonia are increasing.Small increase in life expectancy.Women will live 5 years longer than men-growing market for FPH and trusted products.

[cymonger]

Great article from Mr. Buffett. Buying good companies is always a good idea. Buying ATM, Mainfreight, and other solid companies like that right now. It's like finding a gem in the discount rack at the store. These stocks will UNDOUBTEDLY return to their former highs. It doesn't have to be today or even this year. Personally I'm willing to wait.




https://www.inc.com/minda-zetlin/warren-buffett-stock-market-advice-coronavirus-value-investing.html (https://www.inc.com/minda-zetlin/warren-buffett-stock-market-advice-coronavirus-value-investing.html)

"People would be better off if they say, 'I bought a business today,' not 'a stock today,' because that gives you a different perspective," he explained. "Presumably if you buy a farm, if you buy an apartment house, if you buy a business you're going to own for 10 or 20 or 30 years, then the real question is: Has the 10-year or 20-year outlook for American business changed in the last 24 hours or 48 hours? You don't buy or sell your business based on today's headlines."

[King1212]

come on guys...the brave one will be rewarded!!!!

[Entrep]

Mel, sum, cen, air

[Leemsip]

Stocks I want to own post recession
price target
current
Diff
invest $$


cen
5
6.58
24%
30


BIN
2
2.7
26%
10


scales
3
4.2
29%
20


TNR
1.5
2.2
32%
10


mel
3
4.49
33%
30


A2M
10
15
33%
20


aia
5
7.69
35%
20


mcy
3
4.65
35%
40


pot
4
6.35
37%
20


SKC
2
3.2
38%
20


NPH
2
3.2
38%
20


fletcher
3
5
40%
10


sum
4
6.8
41%
15


sanford
4
7.1
44%
20


mft
20
36
44%
20


ARV
1
1.8
44%
5


HLG
2.5
5
50%
5


SSG
0.3
0.66
55%
5


kina
0.5
1.3
62%
10






330

[Leemsip]

so need some pretty rough declines to see any of these purchases.
reckon nph, scales and hlg will be my first buys

[bottomfeeder]

Well, Im buying Westpac, The have dropped 10% in last few days, and AMP dropping like a stone. Except I am fast coming to the maximum I will invest in the Markets of $270,000, so I will wait a week before I make my final purchases, then I will just have to sit tight and grin and bear any further drops. I figure if the market crashes a lot more, cash wont be worth holding either so no matter what you invest in you will lose. I was going to buy another house, but I have this feeling as the economy turns to custard, house prices will come down quite dramatically, and with inflation moving, interest rates will go up, just making the whole s****box even worse. But I'm not panicking.

[couta1]

so need some pretty rough declines to see any of these purchases.
reckon nph, scales and hlg will be my first buys HLG at $2.50, extreme good luck with that one, if that miracle happened I would be using the house as equity to load up a whole lot more.

[peat]

I still like Ebos for the same reasons, but now even more because its medical stuff. How good is that , strong demand, of course supply chain might be a risk but same for everyone.
Its still not cheap tho. so always the premium for quality. yield not great either sadly. but not less than a TD.

[ratkin]

I still like Ebos for the same reasons, but now even more because its medical stuff. How good is that , strong demand, of course supply chain might be a risk but same for everyone.
Its still not cheap tho. so always the premium for quality. yield not great either sadly. but not less than a TD.

They must have been distributing much more medical supplies than normal, they are the only NZ stock I did not sell out of. Even the pet food side etc should be doing well, especislly with all the advice for people to stock up on Pet food. I am comfortable holding through some short term dips

[SailorRob]

Picking up some soggy gutter butts with maybe a puff or two left

Cautiously buying in order of conviction:

NZR
TPW
MPG
TWR
STU
SKT
NZME

Some pretty ugly names in there but I imagine most will be around in a few years and should be worth more than they are priced at the moment.


Jeez Waikaka, NZR are extremely expensive at these prices. Agree STU good buying though.

[ratkin]

What is the best source of free charts these days for NZ shares?

[causecelebre]

What is the best source of free charts these days for NZ shares?

Tradingview. No affiliation. But for no cost it is excellent

[King1212]

damm it.,...too busy with work this morning.....missed the sales...ahhghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Beagle]

damm it.,...too busy with work this morning.....missed the sales...ahhghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No worries, just wait for the Boxing day sale much later this year :)

[Beagle]

Okay so here is my Christmas list assuming a deep bear market all year and my indicative target prices
AIR 75 cents (gosh you say, it couldn't happen, oh yes it can, history suggests this is a pure cyclical and has been there before more than once)
ATM $8 (has been there before, massive hype built into the current stretched PE)
ARG $1 (still trading at a solid premium to NTA, looking for a 20 - 25% discount to NTA)
ARV $1 (had a huge run and a large retracement is quite possible)
BRM 35 cents (would buy all day long if this got down there)
GNE $2 (ditto above)
GMT $1.40 (As for ARG I would want a 20-25% discount to NTA)
HGH $1 (Things get ugly for Bank's in a bear market - I'd need to be snooping, (you see what I did there Snoopy) :) around there to think I'd got a real bargain)
HLG $2.70 (nothing sweeter than a repeater), bought up large last time it was there a few years ago.
KFL $1 (Whole market to come back at least 30-40% and quite possibly more)
MEL $3 (Buy all day at that price).
MLN 60 cents (40% retracement in US markets would be nice, they're certainly not on as stretched metrics as the NZX, nowhere near)
OCA 80 cents (20% discount to NTA)
RYM $7 (No real case for them being on such a massive PE premium to the rest of the sector...needs a real bashing for me to be interested)
SUM $4 (Julian is now on my naughty list so I'll need a 20% discount to NTA)
MET $3.50 (inept management and imminent takeover failure, needs to be half NTA to get me interested)
THL 90 cents. (Serious trouble here but a massive restructuring and selldown of the fleet might see them escape chapter 11 in the USA and administration here provided they get some Govt support like AIR desperately need)
Caveat, anything bought would have to have shown some (at least modest TA buy signal) before I would dip my paws in the water.

[King1212]

Wow beagle......juicy as...but will it happens? Bet the market will bounce tomorrow and all time high again...

[Beagle]

Dead Cat bounce market tomorrow...even the resident snow cat probably wary of that and the bear will come back later in the week and do plenty more mauling, you mark my words. Image of Couta after last week and today's attack. https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&id=7A69F363098B309848FAF561152AEB54B5A40052&thid=OIP.rQzLXwjllzcTBmfDLOqTAgHaEo&mediaurl=http%3A%2F%2Fgossiponthis.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F10%2Ftodd-orr-man-survived-grizzly-bear-attack-twice.jpg&exph=500&expw=800&q=grizzly+bear+attack&selectedindex=4&ajaxhist=0&vt=0&eim=1

[King1212]

Not too fast....imo...the boss said will cut the interest rate ...tax cut n free money.i want it!!!!!!

[ratkin]

Wow beagle......juicy as...but will it happens? Bet the market will bounce tomorrow and all time high again...

Some of those I sold are already back up to where they were when I unloaded them. Notably Spark,and Chorus. Can the markets defy the virus?
Virus still to fire shots far more potent than any rate cut, but we shall see.

[Cadalac123]

Plexure and Serko. Both amazing growth stories that are finally materiAlizing

[kizame]

The two stocks that always do well at the bottom of recessions or market slumps.(THL,RBD)

ATM
THL
RBD and go heavy.

[Joshuatree]

Im staying well away from perceived "bargains" on this weighing machine for some time , falling knives, FOMO,FOMI, Lust and greed, volatility , why tempt ones discipline?.The memory of long ago being burnt jumping onto a sucker rally, but who knows, how long is a piece of string; twice the radius when held in the middle.

[King1212]

Plexure and Serko. Both amazing growth stories that are finally materiAlizing


Good to see u again...mate. thought u are losing the faith with the forum..

[Joshuatree]

XRO is up 1.3% today PE 5290 according to ASB.

[Beagle]

Im staying well away from perceived "bargains" on this weighing machine for some time , falling knives, FOMO,FOMI, Lust and greed, volatility , why tempt ones discipline?.The memory of long ago being burnt jumping onto a sucker rally, but who knows, how long is a piece of string; twice the radius when held in the middle.

With age comes wisdom and perspective eh JT :) A lot of the young ones on here wouldn't know anything other than a bull market so an 8% dip seems like its dished up some incredible bargains. Fact is we've only wiped off just on one quarter of 2019's exuberance, let alone the fact that the market metrics were already really stretched at the start of 2019...this thing hasn't even really started yet. Its going to be a long and boring wait for the real bargains to materialise...might have to get a new hobby and subscribe to Netflix again.:sleep: :sleep:

[couta1]

XRO is up 1.3% today PE 5290 according to ASB. Yeah I'd defy anyone to explain that PE in any way that makes sense.

[King1212]

Well beagle...u might be wrong. ..the market might bounce back.... proven u were wrong with your darling SUM .....hahha

[BeeBop]

The two stocks that always do well at the bottom of recessions or market slumps.(THL,RBD)

ATM
THL
RBD and go heavy.

THL? Not sure I will be into that one until their company changes a bit! I was a buyer last cycle several years ago, but the profile doesn’t work for me now.

[Cadalac123]

HLG ..? possibly

[iceman]

I am monitoring ATM, MFT, FPH, EBO,AIA, SKC, HGH, PGW, SEK, AIR, HLG and the gentailers. No intention of buying anything for a few months at this stage though

[Rowdy Flat]

Yeah I'd defy anyone to explain that PE in any way that makes sense.

It doesn't have to make sense, it's solely about belief. Same principle that organised religion trades on.

[Manukatana]

Good bounce back today. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/119960759/nzx-rebounds-as-wall-st-loses-its-jitters

Dead cat bounce?

[ratkin]

Good bounce back today. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/119960759/nzx-rebounds-as-wall-st-loses-its-jitters

Dead cat bounce?

Has to be surely, unless the virus fizzles out. China slowly going back to work, but if you jump in now you have to believe there will be no Pandemic, and that is looking increasingly unlikely. Could be last chance to escape the market, although it could carry on another day or Two I guess. A lot of relief in this rally but it could be built on straw

[Tomtom]

If you believe that RBNZ will cut the OCR and that the economy faces more challenges in the future then it would be hard to look past dividend paying counter-cyclicals. :)

[horus1]

Started to buy IFT yesterday. Out of Cash.

[janner]

Started to buy IFT yesterday. Out of Cash.

Cough. Cough.

[Blue Skies]

Looking increasingly like toilet paper could be a good investment :t_up:

[traineeinvestor]

Looking increasingly like toilet paper could be a good investment :t_up:

There was a run on toilet and tissue paper here in HK. The shops were fully restocked within a week of the initial run and have remained so since.

Current indications are that China is slowly returning to normal as the number of new cases continues to decline. HK is also resuming some things that were shut when there was fear of this turning into a full blow pandemic.

[BeeBop]

I got my buys in at the market low on Monday around lunchtime....got my list filled at basement prices...needless to say, up just over 7% in 2 days....however, I am not planning on holding AIR, that was just a very nice wee fill so I may take my profits on it and enjoy the wee bonus. For me, I have bought into the impact of COVID-19 but not the panic (which far exceeds SARS) and even the market panic following 9/11 and the anthrax scares....so I am off to wash my hands with warm soapy water, cover my sneezes and coughs, and shake ankles...the hop on a discount flight to somewhere (and NOT flying Qantas - have you seen how dirty their aircraft are....I was shocked on my recent trip - just days before Corona took a turn for the adventurous).

[turnip]

I will be looking out for good prices on ports (AIA POT SPN), horticulture (SEK FWL TGG) and aged/child care (ARV OCA EVO).

[Food4Thought]

I will be looking out for good prices on ports (AIA POT SPN), horticulture (SEK FWL TGG) and aged/child care (ARV OCA EVO).

Like the idea of POT, SEK, ARV, OCA, HGH, PLX, NWF, NZX, AIA, RBD, a few others with signs of good dividend and future growth potential.

My thoughts are to a less than favourable end to March with a substantial increase in cases, sanctions and locked travel options.

Going to be nice and uncertain for some time to come.

I think the CoronaVirus may affect the economy too... ⚖🔥🔥

Sounds reassuring

[Crypto Crude]

If you are considering buying stocks for holding anytime soon then you need some serious medication and probably shouldnt be managing your own portfolio.... even day trading isnt ideal....
...
There's a deep and sharp bear on the cards here...
All the companies are overvalued on price to earnings....
The World is riddled with debt which has given us the false premise of natural growth....
Coronavirus will shake many industries some to the core...
When one person is getting infected whole companies, and schools and events are being shut down...
Daegu a city of 2.5million was locked down on 60 cases...
...
Trying to catch the bottom is like delivering and uppercut to yourself... far better to see it come off the bottom pay a tiny more and get on the new trend...
My best estimate is somewhere around 15,000 to 18,000 on the DOW....
:cool:
.^sc

[couta1]

If you are considering buying stocks for holding anytime soon then you need some serious medication and probably shouldnt be managing your own portfolio.... even day trading isnt ideal....
...
There's a deep and sharp bear on the cards here...
All the companies are overvalued on price to earnings....
The World is riddled with debt which has given us the false premise of natural growth....
Coronavirus will shake many industries some to the core...
When one person is getting infected whole companies, and schools and events are being shut down...
Daegu a city of 2.5million was locked down on 60 cases...
...
Trying to catch the bottom is like delivering and uppercut to yourself... far better to see it come off the bottom pay a tiny more and get on the new trend...
My best estimate is somewhere around 15,000 to 18,000 on the DOW....
:cool:
.^sc All just your opinion which your entitled to but otherwise should be taken with a large piece of rock salt.

[Cadalac123]

If you are considering buying stocks for holding anytime soon then you need some serious medication and probably shouldnt be managing your own portfolio.... even day trading isnt ideal....
...
There's a deep and sharp bear on the cards here...
All the companies are overvalued on price to earnings....
The World is riddled with debt which has given us the false premise of natural growth....
Coronavirus will shake many industries some to the core...
When one person is getting infected whole companies, and schools and events are being shut down...
Daegu a city of 2.5million was locked down on 60 cases...
...
Trying to catch the bottom is like delivering and uppercut to yourself... far better to see it come off the bottom pay a tiny more and get on the new trend...
My best estimate is somewhere around 15,000 to 18,000 on the DOW....
:cool:
.^sc

Yeah secretly love topping up all your stuff aye while everyone else sells off at a discount

[Crypto Crude]

lol cadalac,
I havnt owned shares for years and years...
Crypto buzz....
:cool:
.^sc

[youngatheart]

Soooo... Which are the goods one again? Lol

[Entrep]

Time to go shopping today I think for a portion of my shopping list

[Cadalac123]

Keep an eye on XERO going to $1

[stoploss]

Keep an eye on XERO going to $1

This is pure down ramping . What do you base this assumption on ?

[RGR367]

Keep an eye on XERO going to $1

I'm not worried as I got heaps of those XRO shares when they were still less than a dollar :p

[Blue Skies]

This is pure down ramping . What do you base this assumption on ?


Cadalac said in an earlier post he, secretly loves topping up on all your stuff while everyone selling off at a discount.
So intentions are pretty clear unless he's just being humorous.

Should never ever try & encourage fear & panic for own gain, esp since it's often the elderly & sick who are most vulnerable to panic selling, but some people seem to think anything goes.

[Cadalac123]

Im joking clearly, just doing what winner69 does on every thread

[Blue Skies]

Im joking clearly, just doing what winner69 does on every thread


Great, thanks Cadalac, I always thought you were one of the decent ones :)

[Jonboyz]

Keeping my eye on:
RBD Fastfood companies typically do ok during recessions and before the recent drop it was gangbusters.
MFT Once the borders freeup after the virus, there’ll be a surge in transportation needs to recoup low stock-levels worldwide.
XRO
MFF (on the ASX) invested in high-quality U.S. companies

[sb9]

Keep an eye on XERO going to $1

One share I would love to get in, keeping a close eye.

[Entrep]

I got miniscule fills at the bottom for a couple of shares and now we seem to be recovering? Not to worried, many more weeks of this I suspect and only bidding part of my capital.

[JayRiggs]

Which stocks do you guys think will benefit the most out of this coronavirus situation?
Two I can think of now are FPH and EBO.

FPH have already lifted guidance a few weeks back - from $255-265m to $260-270m, but are they still too overvalued at $26?

EBO have alot of different businesses in healthcare space. Which parts of EBO stand to benefit most? And which parts will be impacted?

[youngatheart]

Okay so here is my Christmas list assuming a deep bear market all year and my indicative target prices
AIR 75 cents (gosh you say, it couldn't happen, oh yes it can, history suggests this is a pure cyclical and has been there before more than once)
ATM $8 (has been there before, massive hype built into the current stretched PE)
ARG $1 (still trading at a solid premium to NTA, looking for a 20 - 25% discount to NTA)
ARV $1 (had a huge run and a large retracement is quite possible)
BRM 35 cents (would buy all day long if this got down there)
GNE $2 (ditto above)
GMT $1.40 (As for ARG I would want a 20-25% discount to NTA)
HGH $1 (Things get ugly for Bank's in a bear market - I'd need to be snooping, (you see what I did there Snoopy) :) around there to think I'd got a real bargain)
HLG $2.70 (nothing sweeter than a repeater), bought up large last time it was there a few years ago.
KFL $1 (Whole market to come back at least 30-40% and quite possibly more)
MEL $3 (Buy all day at that price).
MLN 60 cents (40% retracement in US markets would be nice, they're certainly not on as stretched metrics as the NZX, nowhere near)
OCA 80 cents (20% discount to NTA)
RYM $7 (No real case for them being on such a massive PE premium to the rest of the sector...needs a real bashing for me to be interested)
SUM $4 (Julian is now on my naughty list so I'll need a 20% discount to NTA)

Caveat, anything bought would have to have shown some (at least modest TA buy signal) before I would dip my paws in the water.

Wow Beagle, the way things are heading you may get your wishlist!

[peat]

Wow Beagle, the way things are heading you may get your wishlist!

thanks for requoting Beagle.
I have been thinking about starting to nibble as the market falls hard however the prices quoted above are much lower than I would have thought likely so that gives me pause for thought.
I see it more as leaning against the wind rather than being all in or all out. Buying slowly , judiciously on the way down and sticking to quality , and then the cycle changes and eventually things get exuberant again and selling into that
Benjamin Graham reckoned one should never have less than 25% in equities and no more than 75%. And to move from one to other as the cycle revolved. Probably easier to say than do. But not that hard to know when prices are high and prices are low?? I still have my doubts they will go down to Beagles levels but would be a buyer down there of course. And before too , but not so many.

Ebos need to be on the list. At say $15 I guess but not sure it will go anywhere near that.

[ynot]

Okay so here is my Christmas list assuming a deep bear market all year and my indicative target prices
AIR 75 cents (gosh you say, it couldn't happen, oh yes it can, history suggests this is a pure cyclical and has been there before more than once)
ATM $8 (has been there before, massive hype built into the current stretched PE)
ARG $1 (still trading at a solid premium to NTA, looking for a 20 - 25% discount to NTA)
ARV $1 (had a huge run and a large retracement is quite possible)
BRM 35 cents (would buy all day long if this got down there)
GNE $2 (ditto above)
GMT $1.40 (As for ARG I would want a 20-25% discount to NTA)
HGH $1 (Things get ugly for Bank's in a bear market - I'd need to be snooping, (you see what I did there Snoopy) :) around there to think I'd got a real bargain)
HLG $2.70 (nothing sweeter than a repeater), bought up large last time it was there a few years ago.
KFL $1 (Whole market to come back at least 30-40% and quite possibly more)
MEL $3 (Buy all day at that price).
MLN 60 cents (40% retracement in US markets would be nice, they're certainly not on as stretched metrics as the NZX, nowhere near)
OCA 80 cents (20% discount to NTA)
RYM $7 (No real case for them being on such a massive PE premium to the rest of the sector...needs a real bashing for me to be interested)
SUM $4 (Julian is now on my naughty list so I'll need a 20% discount to NTA)

Caveat, anything bought would have to have shown some (at least modest TA buy signal) before I would dip my paws in the water.

Thanks Beagle. For a novice like me considering how to establish a new portfolio this is great stuff.

[couta1]

Thanks Beagle. For a novice like me considering how to establish a new portfolio this is great stuff. He's wrong about ATM, it has very little hype built into it's modest PE for such an exceptional high growth company and when it was last $8 it was not the company it is now.

[ynot]

He's wrong about ATM, it has very little hype built into it's very modest PE for such an exceptional high growth company and when it was last $8 it was not the company it is now.

Cheers. all good.

[couta1]

cheers. All good. No worries.

[Beagle]

He's wrong about ATM, it has very little hype built into it's modest PE for such an exceptional high growth company and when it was last $8 it was not the company it is now.

Never since the great depression of 1929 have US markets gone from Bull to Bear at this great speed. Just 19 days for the Dow to go 20%+ down !
Not impressive enough ? how about the ASX down a whopping 26+% in just 3 weeks !

If we get community spread and lockdown in N.Z. in my opinion the ugly stick is going to bash everything on the NZX.
Multiples could come back substantially for all stocks, that's simply what bear markets do. Don't overlook the possibility of another great depression either.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression

[ynot]

Never since the great depression of 1929 have US markets gone from Bull to Bear at this great speed. Just 19 days for the Dow to go 20%+ down !
Not impressive enough ? how about the ASX down a whopping 26+% in just 3 weeks !

If we get community spread and lockdown in N.Z. in my opinion the ugly stick is going to bash everything on the NZX.
Multiples could come back substantially for all stocks, that's simply what bear markets do. Don't overlook the possibility of another great depression either.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression

I'm hearing you. I'm keeping a close eye on the banking system. They go ...we know what happens there.
Mind you this was always going to happen. Dow at 29,000, straw house !

[couta1]

Never since the great depression of 1929 have US markets gone from Bull to Bear at this great speed. Just 19 days for the Dow to go 20%+ down !
Not impressive enough ? how about the ASX down a whopping 26+% in just 3 weeks !

If we get community spread and lockdown in N.Z. in my opinion the ugly stick is going to bash everything on the NZX.
Multiples could come back substantially for all stocks, that's simply what bear markets do. Don't overlook the possibility of another great depression either.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression Forget the possible spread of the pussycat virus cause the real game is soon to start with the far more deadly common seasonal flu virus which will kill far more both here and abroad.

[fish]

Forget the possible spread of the pussycat virus cause the real game is soon to start with the far more deadly common seasonal flu virus which will kill far more both here and abroad.

You are talking to deaf ears and you cannot stop the market falling.
Beagle has made many astute moves and people listening to him are doing very well

[King1212]

Couta is different...money means nothing. He is loaded...so bear does not apply to him

[Blue Skies]

Don't forget at the first sign of an effective medication (possibly v soon) or a vaccine ( within 12-18 month) sentiment will reverse just as quickly & fortunes will be made.

The advances being made in both these areas are happening at record breaking speed with never before seen levels of scientific resources & collaboration being poured into solving this.
IP is being shared or even ignored in the race to develop medication & a vaccine & trials already underway in China with Remdesivir which looks promising.

[couta1]

You are talking to deaf ears and you cannot stop the market falling.
Beagle has made many astute moves and people listening to him are doing very well Who's trying to stop the Lemmings, you can't control mass fear. PS-In one large local retirement village 20 residents died last winter from the common flu virus, think about it.

[couta1]

Couta is different...money means nothing. He is loaded...so bear does not apply to him No no more loaded than many on here, just live a very simple, frugal and non materialistic life. PS-Your right I dont hold money dearly, there are far more important things.

[Joshuatree]

He's wrong about ATM, it has very little hype built into it's modest PE for such an exceptional high growth company and when it was last $8 it was not the company it is now.


What have you been right about Couta? I hope you can do the decent thing here.

[couta1]

What have you been right about Couta? I hope you can do the decent thing here. Dont know what you've been drinking but I'm off to do some work in the community so have a good day.

[Joshuatree]

Deeper and deeper folks;)

talking about coutas hole and his inability to confess his error, admit it and then learn from it , a golden opportunity gone begging, sa la vie.

[Beagle]

According Chris Lee, he thinks his clients have on an average of about $200K invested.

Obviously that means they should be managing their portfolio is a very prudent manner as they don't have the capability to withstand severe shocks to their financial wellbeing.

[James108]

Ironically I bet that New Zealand is in for a very mild flu season given the extraordinary Coronavirus precautions people are taking and the fairly low mortality so far of Coronavirus vs common flu. Could Coronavirus be net good for NZs public health? Either way economic impact is looking increasingly large which I’m sure is front of mind for most of us.

[Leemsip]

Starting to get into range with some of my target stocks for the dream portfolio to bottom drawer and hold.
Wondering if I need to reconsider some of these target prices...:scared:




Stocks I want to own post recession
price target
current
Diff



A2M
12
13.95
14%



cen
5
5.99
17%



mft
25
30
17%



mcy
3.5
4.2
17%



osh
2.5
3.06
18%



SKC
2
2.6
23%



wpl
15
19.53
23%



twe
7
9.16
24%



ARV
1
1.31
24%



SCL
3
4.02
25%



NPH
2
2.79
28%



BIN
1.7
2.46
31%



TRA
1.5
2.19
32%



sum
4
5.9
32%



mel
3
4.49
33%



sanford
4
6.3
37%



pot
4
6.35
37%



aia
4.5
7.69
41%



SSG
0.3
0.58
48%



ksl
0.5
1.04
52%

[ratkin]

According Chris Lee, he thinks his clients have on an average of about $200K invested.

Obviously that means they should be managing their portfolio is a very prudent manner as they don't have the capability to withstand severe shocks to their financial wellbeing.

How do you draw those conclusions? Me no understand

[TobyPascoe92]

Okay so here is my Christmas list assuming a deep bear market all year and my indicative target prices
AIR 75 cents (gosh you say, it couldn't happen, oh yes it can, history suggests this is a pure cyclical and has been there before more than once)
ATM $8 (has been there before, massive hype built into the current stretched PE)
ARG $1 (still trading at a solid premium to NTA, looking for a 20 - 25% discount to NTA)
ARV $1 (had a huge run and a large retracement is quite possible)
BRM 35 cents (would buy all day long if this got down there)
GNE $2 (ditto above)
GMT $1.40 (As for ARG I would want a 20-25% discount to NTA)
HGH $1 (Things get ugly for Bank's in a bear market - I'd need to be snooping, (you see what I did there Snoopy) :) around there to think I'd got a real bargain)
HLG $2.70 (nothing sweeter than a repeater), bought up large last time it was there a few years ago.
KFL $1 (Whole market to come back at least 30-40% and quite possibly more)
MEL $3 (Buy all day at that price).
MLN 60 cents (40% retracement in US markets would be nice, they're certainly not on as stretched metrics as the NZX, nowhere near)
OCA 80 cents (20% discount to NTA)
RYM $7 (No real case for them being on such a massive PE premium to the rest of the sector...needs a real bashing for me to be interested)
SUM $4 (Julian is now on my naughty list so I'll need a 20% discount to NTA)

Caveat, anything bought would have to have shown some (at least modest TA buy signal) before I would dip my paws in the water.

Anyone else currently printing off Beagles list of bargains? Do you want to updates these prices Beagle? lol

[youngatheart]

Well OCA is the first to hit its price...

[Beagle]

Anyone else currently printing off Beagles list of bargains? Do you want to updates these prices Beagle? lol

I'd like to add MET to the list at $3.50, the takeover is doomed.

OCA - Am waiting for TA confirmation of a bottom...a break up through the 30 day MA would be sufficient for me to start a new hound hunt :)

[ratkin]

Hopefully they all even cheaper on Monday. There is normally so much bad news over the weekend that only one way prices are likely to go. Must admit there are a few starting to look tempting, but must resist

[traineeinvestor]

I'd like to add MET to the list at $3.50, the takeover is doomed.

OCA - Am waiting for TA confirmation of a bottom...a break up through the 30 day MA would be sufficient for me to start a new hound hunt :)


I've also exited my position in MET on concerns the takeover will not proceed. I'd be happy to buy back in at the right price but one lingering concern I have with buying the retirement sector is the market's likely reaction if there is a single case of Covid-19 in any retirement complex.

[Beagle]

I've also added THL to my Christmas stocking wish list at half NTA - 90 cents. (You can make a lot of money on cyclical's buying at the bottom of the cycle).
THL was never really a growth company, (just a cyclical with a lot of talk about growth from Rob Campbell, pretending it was a growth company).

[youngatheart]

Okay so here is my Christmas list assuming a deep bear market all year and my indicative target prices
AIR 75 cents (gosh you say, it couldn't happen, oh yes it can, history suggests this is a pure cyclical and has been there before more than once)
ATM $8 (has been there before, massive hype built into the current stretched PE)
ARG $1 (still trading at a solid premium to NTA, looking for a 20 - 25% discount to NTA)
ARV $1 (had a huge run and a large retracement is quite possible)
BRM 35 cents (would buy all day long if this got down there)
GNE $2 (ditto above)
GMT $1.40 (As for ARG I would want a 20-25% discount to NTA)
HGH $1 (Things get ugly for Bank's in a bear market - I'd need to be snooping, (you see what I did there Snoopy) :) around there to think I'd got a real bargain)
HLG $2.70 (nothing sweeter than a repeater), bought up large last time it was there a few years ago.
KFL $1 (Whole market to come back at least 30-40% and quite possibly more)
MEL $3 (Buy all day at that price).
MLN 60 cents (40% retracement in US markets would be nice, they're certainly not on as stretched metrics as the NZX, nowhere near)
OCA 80 cents (20% discount to NTA)
RYM $7 (No real case for them being on such a massive PE premium to the rest of the sector...needs a real bashing for me to be interested)
SUM $4 (Julian is now on my naughty list so I'll need a 20% discount to NTA)

Caveat, anything bought would have to have shown some (at least modest TA buy signal) before I would dip my paws in the water.

Hnmm, so OCA has hit the mark at 80c, next AIR at 75c?...

[Beagle]

Hnmm, so OCA has hit the mark at 80c, next AIR at 75c?...

Yeap, they're now the red hot favourite on that list to be next but please note the caveat to buying at the bottom.
After that ARG are not far away and have a fair percentage of retail buildings so are vulnerable to a pullback as small retailers struggle and as we head into a winter of deep recessionary economic doom and gloom, banks and finance companies never do well so HGH follow along.
SUM probably in contention too with the speed of their fall from grace showing no signs of slowing.

[Beagle]

Okay so here is my Christmas list assuming a deep bear market all year and my indicative target prices
AIR 75 cents (gosh you say, it couldn't happen, oh yes it can, history suggests this is a pure cyclical and has been there before more than once)
ATM $8 (has been there before, massive hype built into the current stretched PE)
ARG $1 (still trading at a solid premium to NTA, looking for a 20 - 25% discount to NTA)
ARV $1 (had a huge run and a large retracement is quite possible)
BRM 35 cents (would buy all day long if this got down there)
GNE $2 (ditto above)
GMT $1.40 (As for ARG I would want a 20-25% discount to NTA)
HGH $1 (Things get ugly for Bank's in a bear market - I'd need to be snooping, (you see what I did there Snoopy) :) around there to think I'd got a real bargain)
HLG $2.70 (nothing sweeter than a repeater), bought up large last time it was there a few years ago.
KFL $1 (Whole market to come back at least 30-40% and quite possibly more)
MEL $3 (Buy all day at that price).
MLN 60 cents (40% retracement in US markets would be nice, they're certainly not on as stretched metrics as the NZX, nowhere near)
OCA 80 cents (20% discount to NTA)
RYM $7 (No real case for them being on such a massive PE premium to the rest of the sector...needs a real bashing for me to be interested)
SUM $4 (Julian is now on my naughty list so I'll need a 20% discount to NTA)
MET $3.50 (inept management and imminent takeover failure, needs to be half NTA to get me interested)
THL 90 cents. (Serious trouble here but a massive restructuring and selldown of the fleet might see them escape chapter 11 in the USA and administration here provided they get some Govt support like AIR desperately need)
Caveat, anything bought would have to have shown some (at least modest TA buy signal) before I would dip my paws in the water.

Updated shopping list and note the caveat at the bottom which I have bolded and colored up to ensure nobody misses it.

[Lewylewylewy]

In the end we'll all be buying the stock that we each percieve to be the biggest bargain or having the fastest recovery, which may be the same thing.

I suspect AIR might be top of that list, followed by AIA? I doubt REITS will be all that cheap, but who knows?!

Banks could also be a good one, and any stocks that currently have a stretched PE.

[ynot]

Okay so here is my Christmas list assuming a deep bear market all year and my indicative target prices
AIR 75 cents (gosh you say, it couldn't happen, oh yes it can, history suggests this is a pure cyclical and has been there before more than once)
ATM $8 (has been there before, massive hype built into the current stretched PE)
ARG $1 (still trading at a solid premium to NTA, looking for a 20 - 25% discount to NTA)
ARV $1 (had a huge run and a large retracement is quite possible)
BRM 35 cents (would buy all day long if this got down there)
GNE $2 (ditto above)
GMT $1.40 (As for ARG I would want a 20-25% discount to NTA)
HGH $1 (Things get ugly for Bank's in a bear market - I'd need to be snooping, (you see what I did there Snoopy) :) around there to think I'd got a real bargain)
HLG $2.70 (nothing sweeter than a repeater), bought up large last time it was there a few years ago.
KFL $1 (Whole market to come back at least 30-40% and quite possibly more)
MEL $3 (Buy all day at that price).
MLN 60 cents (40% retracement in US markets would be nice, they're certainly not on as stretched metrics as the NZX, nowhere near)
OCA 80 cents (20% discount to NTA)
RYM $7 (No real case for them being on such a massive PE premium to the rest of the sector...needs a real bashing for me to be interested)
SUM $4 (Julian is now on my naughty list so I'll need a 20% discount to NTA)
MET $3.50 (inept management and imminent takeover failure, needs to be half NTA to get me interested)
THL 90 cents. (Serious trouble here but a massive restructuring and selldown of the fleet might see them escape chapter 11 in the USA and administration here provided they get some Govt support like AIR desperately need)
Caveat, anything bought would have to have shown some (at least modest TA buy signal) before I would dip my paws in the water.

I'm a tech dinasor but would it be possible for someone smarter than me to build a chart that plots beagles predictions as we move forward into the economic abyss ? Could be entertaining.

[ratkin]

Which stocks if any are likely to indirectly benefit from this stimulus package?

[King1212]

None...as bear will Savage any stocks to the ground....

[RupertBear]

I have been surprised that even my so called “defensive” stocks like CEN and MEL have been savaged badly as well. Bears, apart from yours truely, are not very friendly beasts are they :mellow:

[King1212]

I have been surprised that even my so called “defensive” stocks like CEN and MEL have been savaged badly as well. Bears, apart from yours truely, are not very friendly beasts are they :mellow:


Agree..bear can also smell the money that u put under your underwear....the bear likes it if u did not put it properly...

[RupertBear]

Agree..bear can also smell the money that u put under your underwear....the bear likes it if u did not put it properly...

I have heard of people hiding their money under the mattress but under their underwear is a new one to me! :eek2: The mind boggles :lol::lol::lol:

[causecelebre]

Forget the possible spread of the pussycat virus cause the real game is soon to start with the far more deadly common seasonal flu virus which will kill far more both here and abroad.

Exactly. Quite a scary possibility your garden variety seasonal flu will start and really start freaking people out. The negative sentiment this thing has is not insignificant

[JBmurc]

Right now markets are tumbling, and at some point there are going to be some cracking good bargains emerging. Which companies should be first on the shopping list?

Without doubt going to the ASX for a start
#1-the ASX has underperformed most major markets for many years now --the ASX really backed by commodities (biggest GOLD EXPORTER in the world)
#2-NZD/AUD near it highest your 100k NZD will secure you $98K AUD
#3-CORVID19 is a black swan event IT IS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CRASH THE BUBBLE MARKET
#4-Zero to negative rates are coming
#5-Tourism comprises an important sector of the New Zealand economy, directly contributing NZ$12.9 billion (or 5.6%) of the country's GDP in 2016, as well as supporting 188,000 full-time-equivalent jobs (nearly 7.5% of New Zealand's workforce).

[ratkin]

Without doubt going to the ASX for a start
#1-the ASX has underperformed most major markets for many years now --the ASX really backed by commodities (biggest GOLD EXPORTER in the world)
#2-NZD/AUD near it highest your 100k NZD will secure you $98K AUD
#3-CORVID19 is a black swan event IT IS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CRASH THE BUBBLE MARKET
#4-Zero to negative rates are coming
#5-Tourism comprises an important sector of the New Zealand economy, directly contributing NZ$12.9 billion (or 5.6%) of the country's GDP in 2016, as well as supporting 188,000 full-time-equivalent jobs (nearly 7.5% of New Zealand's workforce).

I agree on this, does no harm to diversify away from NZ. Also they are more advanced with their virus, so that is probably more factored into their prices.

[King1212]

One thing I hate about ASX market is ... shorters! Heaps of them...the shares up and down like yoyo....

[Southern_Belle]

Any gaming companies listed on sharemarket? If schools close then all those kids buying online gaming etc to keep kids occupied.

[peat]

Any gaming companies listed on sharemarket? If schools close then all those kids buying online gaming etc to keep kids occupied.


Activision on the US market
use Hatch (https://app.hatchinvest.nz/)

[Biscuit]

Any gaming companies listed on sharemarket? If schools close then all those kids buying online gaming etc to keep kids occupied.

Perhaps an opportunity there for SKC? :D

[JBmurc]

One thing I hate about ASX market is ... shorters! Heaps of them...the shares up and down like yoyo....

Can also play into Buyers hands as good companies get oversold ... I see major spikes in Gold producer majors NCM etc their Qtr report coming later April will impress with AUD Gold at record highs + the profit margins will also be high

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

I have been surprised that even my so called “defensive” stocks like CEN and MEL have been savaged badly as well. Bears, apart from yours truely, are not very friendly beasts are they :mellow:
Same here Rupert - there are some stocks taking a big hit from this bear that has to generate some potential value buying. And here I was having grown up being taught "the market is always rationale"... ;)

[ratkin]

Massive sale continues, which babies are being thrown out with the bathwater ?
A few starting to look attractive, but have to avoid anything with too much debt.

Safest retirement village operator?
Safest Utility?

Any takers?

[Grimy]

I did buy a few OCA today, not saying they're the safest in their sector, but I couldn't resist.

[Blue Skies]

I did buy a few OCA today, not saying they're the safest in their sector, but I couldn't resist.

With several of their Directors increasing their personal shareholdings at the end of Feb and again several days ago, i'ld take that as a reassuring.

The market is over optimistic & over pessimistic!

[Raz]

Massive sale continues, which babies are being thrown out with the bathwater ?
A few starting to look attractive, but have to avoid anything with too much debt.

Safest retirement village operator?
Safest Utility?

Any takers?

If you follow the medical people advising the Government and MOH, we are months away from any form of clarity. Time for investors to think it through..anything before is a blind gamble.

[NZSilver]

BBOZ on ASX

[see weed]

SPK, Power companies and a2.

[see weed]

SPK, Power companies and a2 at a good price.

[peat]

SPK, Power companies and a2.
yeh it was noticeable that Telcos weren't getting beaten up as bad as the rest of the market.
Still SPK not exactly cheap …. Telstra better but outlook fairly gloomy... with all those telcos nipping at their heels over in Oz

[youngatheart]

OCA at - 40% to its NTA seems a crazy overreaction compared to the other retirement stocks. If the retirement sector chiefs planned meeting tomorrow goes well it could instil a bit of confidence and cause a nudge upwards...

[ratkin]

Dipped my toes in this morning with FPH at 25.00 decided mentally easier to buy strength than weakness. As long as they can keep their factories going they look mint

[oldtech]

Okay so here is my Christmas list assuming a deep bear market all year and my indicative target prices
AIR 75 cents (gosh you say, it couldn't happen, oh yes it can, history suggests this is a pure cyclical and has been there before more than once)
ATM $8 (has been there before, massive hype built into the current stretched PE)
ARG $1 (still trading at a solid premium to NTA, looking for a 20 - 25% discount to NTA)
ARV $1 (had a huge run and a large retracement is quite possible)
BRM 35 cents (would buy all day long if this got down there)
GNE $2 (ditto above)
GMT $1.40 (As for ARG I would want a 20-25% discount to NTA)
HGH $1 (Things get ugly for Bank's in a bear market - I'd need to be snooping, (you see what I did there Snoopy) :) around there to think I'd got a real bargain)
HLG $2.70 (nothing sweeter than a repeater), bought up large last time it was there a few years ago.
KFL $1 (Whole market to come back at least 30-40% and quite possibly more)
MEL $3 (Buy all day at that price).
MLN 60 cents (40% retracement in US markets would be nice, they're certainly not on as stretched metrics as the NZX, nowhere near)
OCA 80 cents (20% discount to NTA)
RYM $7 (No real case for them being on such a massive PE premium to the rest of the sector...needs a real bashing for me to be interested)
SUM $4 (Julian is now on my naughty list so I'll need a 20% discount to NTA)
MET $3.50 (inept management and imminent takeover failure, needs to be half NTA to get me interested)
THL 90 cents. (Serious trouble here but a massive restructuring and selldown of the fleet might see them escape chapter 11 in the USA and administration here provided they get some Govt support like AIR desperately need)
Caveat, anything bought would have to have shown some (at least modest TA buy signal) before I would dip my paws in the water.

First and foremost, I continue to bear your caveat in mind. :cool: Having said that, a couple of thoughts and observations ...

AIR 75 cents
With everything that's gone on in the past few days, would you still? FWIW, I would want an awful lot more than just a modest TA signal before I took what I see now as a big risk.

ARG $1
$1.02 at the moment ...

BRM 35 cents
10 cents to go!

HGH $1
Dipped very close to it earlier today ($1.01)

OCA 80 cents
61 cents now, I don't know about you but I'm sitting firmly on my hands at the moment with this and all retirement stocks currently.

THL 90 cents
Nope, I got burnt by this last time around, no way would I touch this with a barge pole.

[Beagle]

First and foremost, I continue to bear your caveat in mind. :cool: Having said that, a couple of thoughts and observations ...

AIR 75 cents
With everything that's gone on in the past few days, would you still? FWIW, I would want an awful lot more than just a modest TA signal before I took what I see now as a big risk.

ARG $1
$1.02 at the moment ...

BRM 35 cents
10 cents to go!

HGH $1
Dipped very close to it earlier today ($1.01)

OCA 80 cents
61 cents now, I don't know about you but I'm sitting firmly on my hands at the moment with this and all retirement stocks currently.

THL 90 cents
Nope, I got burnt by this last time around, no way would I touch this with a barge pole.

Gidday mate, thanks for revisiting this, first posted 2 March. Updated thoughts since then.

TA - My "go too" technical analysis indicator will be a confirmed three day break above the 30 day moving average. Using this will mean I am buying into the real possibility of a new uptrend and protect me from the worst of the downside risk, if we are headed for an extremely serious GFC Mk2.

AIR - Massive changes to the network since I posted that on 2 March. Revised business model simply won't work. Without major Govt support this virus is an existential event for AIR. A loan facility from the Govt will only delay the inevitable. This company would appear to "eat" capital at something over $5m per day with its revised business structure. That only leads to one thing.

ARG - I need to rethink this and look at their retail exposure. I am surprised it has come down so quick...the market is telling me something and I need to listen.

BRM - This is getting interesting. Aussie market has been absolutely smashed. Watching this one with great interest.

HGH - Lets wait and see where the bottom is with that TA process described above.

OCA - As above...this could get extremely ugly if the virus gets into a number of retirement villages - massive effect on demand going forward. TA very much to the fore here, FA is almost useless.

THL - Big changes to border controls both in the US and N.Z. leave this company very vulnerable with its very high debt level's. Rob Campbell lost his mojo ? I think its now too vulnerable for me to have a punt.

SUM - My updated view on this is now $3.50, see SUM thread.

KPG - Watching this one, crikey the carnage is ugly !

ARV getting close to $1. Interested in this one. T.J. has a point, this company has been travelling quite well. Tristan Saunders their marketing manager is ex SUM from several years ago when SUM's units were selling very well. He's a very smart guy.

[oldtech]

Gidday mate, thanks for revisiting this, first posted 2 March. Updated thoughts since then.

TA - My "go too" technical analysis indicator will be a confirmed three day break above the 30 day moving average. Using this will mean I am buying into the real possibility of a new uptrend and protect me from the worst of the downside risk, if we are headed for an extremely serious GFC Mk2.

AIR - Massive changes to the network since I posted that on 2 March. Revised business model simply won't work. Without major Govt support this virus is an existential event for AIR. A loan facility from the Govt will only delay the inevitable. This company would appear to "eat" capital at something over $5m per day with its revised business structure. That only leads to one thing.

ARG - I need to rethink this and look at their retail exposure. I am surprised it has come down so quick...the market is telling me something and I need to listen.

BRM - This is getting interesting. Aussie market has been absolutely smashed. Watching this one with great interest.

HGH - Lets wait and see where the bottom is with that TA process described above.

OCA - As above...this could get extremely ugly if the virus gets into a number of retirement villages - massive effect on demand going forward. TA very much to the fore here, FA is almost useless.

THL - Big changes to border controls both in the US and N.Z. leave this company very vulnerable with its very high debt level's. Rob Campbell lost his mojo ? I think its now too vulnerable for me to have a punt.

SUM - My updated view on this is now $3.50, see SUM thread.

KPG - Watching this one, crikey the carnage is ugly !

ARV getting close to $1. Interested in this one. T.J. has a point, this company has been travelling quite well. Tristan Saunders their marketing manager is ex SUM from several years ago when SUM's units were selling very well. He's a very smart guy.


Thanks Beagle. FWIW, the companies I am keeping an eye on at the moment include ARG and HGH.

ARG are more heavily weighted to office space (40%) and industrial (47%) than retail (13%), but even office space could be perceived as more risky these days. A Weighted Average Lease Term (“WALT”) of 6.0 years, but how much does that count for in current circumstances? (Refer to https://www.argosy.co.nz/investor-centre/portfolio-metrics/)

HGH - agree with your sentiment, I keep telling myself to resist the urge to jump in boots and all, have to wait for TA to provide good guidance.

[oldtech]

ARG - I need to rethink this and look at their retail exposure. I am surprised it has come down so quick...the market is telling me something and I need to listen

Interesting. I had a look at some other companies after that comment, and not sure that ARG has dropped that much more in comparison? One of the bigger drops in this sector, certainly, but by no means the biggest.

A month ago, ARG was trading at $1.44 - the new low hit today of $0.99 represents a drop of 31%.

Looking at some other companies a month ago, and lowest price today:

VHP - was trading at $2.88 a month ago, today's low $2.07 = 28% drop
KPG - was trading at $1.55 a month ago, today's low $0.99 = 36% drop
GMT - was trading at $2.31 a month ago, today's low $1.88 = 19% drop
PFI - was trading at $2.49 a month ago, today's low $1.91 = 23% drop
PCT - was trading at $1.87 a month ago, today's low $1.47 = 21% drop

So to my eye, it's certainly a substantial drop, but do you think it's that much out of line with other comparable companies?

[kiora]

If you follow the medical people advising the Government and MOH, we are months away from any form of clarity. Time for investors to think it through..anything before is a blind gamble.

The share markets typically look 6 months ahead

[klid]

KPG was looking great at under a dollar - now about even for the day at 1.14.

[Beagle]

Interesting. I had a look at some other companies after that comment, and not sure that ARG has dropped that much more in comparison? One of the bigger drops in this sector, certainly, but by no means the biggest.

A month ago, ARG was trading at $1.44 - the new low hit today of $0.99 represents a drop of 31%.

Looking at some other companies a month ago, and lowest price today:

VHP - was trading at $2.88 a month ago, today's low $2.07 = 28% drop
KPG - was trading at $1.55 a month ago, today's low $0.99 = 36% drop
GMT - was trading at $2.31 a month ago, today's low $1.88 = 19% drop
PFI - was trading at $2.49 a month ago, today's low $1.91 = 23% drop
PCT - was trading at $1.87 a month ago, today's low $1.47 = 21% drop

So to my eye, it's certainly a substantial drop, but do you think it's that much out of line with other comparable companies?

Thanks for that analysis. Not much out of line with the market drop as a whole either. That's the problem with bear markets isn't it ! You think you're getting a bargain when you aren't really.

[Entrep]

HGH is up about 17% from its low of the day!

[Beagle]

HGH is up about 17% from its low of the day!

Hindsight is always 20/20. What's it going to be 2 months from now if we get community virus spread and everyone is in lockdown :eek2: That's the $64,000 question !

[Entrep]

Hindsight is always 20/20. What's it going to be 2 months from now if we get community virus spread and everyone is in lockdown :eek2: That's the $64,000 question !

Better yet, what's it going to be tomorrow or any other day this week!?:huh:

[Beagle]

Banks and finance companies don't do well in a global financial crisis which is why I got out at an average of ~ $1.80 several weeks ago. I think the new trend is quite clear but obviously daily macerations of the share price are another thing.

[Raz]

The share markets typically look 6 months ahead and what does that tell you then as the market simply does not know.

[skid]

Gold is worth looking at

[kiora]

and what does that tell you then as the market simply does not know.

Who does? Assumption: AITMOAC
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976516488/negative-news-abounds-but-things-will-get-better.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+17+Mar+ 2020

[Cadalac123]

Listen. If you can’t take a loss then investing in individual companies will be depressing

I’ve taken a 10000$ Loss when I first started investing (over an embarrassing 6 month period of blindly buying hype)and have made that plus a lot more back

Taking those losses taught me the important of realising this game requires losses to be taken . If you want define yourself risk and enter with a stop loss and sleep at night

Losing 1000$ and making 5000$ is probably the best way to make money most of the time

[Joshuatree]

It is essential to learn to accept losses, bail , learn and move on.How many folks that have had a trade that has turned into a long neglected hold simply because they couldnt bear taking a loss.Ive done it.

If you cant crystallise a loss you shouldn't be doing it at all. You will turn into one of those people who will make a million from losing two.

[justakiwi]

I know this thread is about companies, but does anyone have any comments/advice on which funds might be good buying right now?

[Joshuatree]

Until the virus passes its peak in USA ( how many months) for one id be very careful about investing in anything.Just my opinion.Trading or shorting is something else and not my thing although i have some BBOZ which is bit of a roller coaster.

[King1212]

BBOZ is like russian roullette...black or red....crazy and you hardly pick up whether the market is up or down. US down, OZ might up...vice versa. Crazy....

[Joshuatree]

Until the virus passes its peak in USA ( how many months) for one id be very careful about investing in anything.Just my opinion.Trading or shorting is something else and not my thing although i have some BBOZ which is bit of a roller coaster.

Until the virus passes its peak OR a vaccine miraculously appears sooner then the 12-18months it normally takes.

[Beagle]

Okay so here is my Christmas list assuming a deep bear market all year and my indicative target prices
AIR 75 cents (gosh you say, it couldn't happen, oh yes it can, history suggests this is a pure cyclical and has been there before more than once)
ATM $8 (has been there before, massive hype built into the current stretched PE)
ARG $1 (still trading at a solid premium to NTA, looking for a 20 - 25% discount to NTA)
ARV $1 (had a huge run and a large retracement is quite possible)
BRM 35 cents (would buy all day long if this got down there)
GNE $2 (ditto above)
GMT $1.40 (As for ARG I would want a 20-25% discount to NTA)
HGH $1 (Things get ugly for Bank's in a bear market - I'd need to be snooping, (you see what I did there Snoopy) around there to think I'd got a real bargain)
HLG $2.70 (nothing sweeter than a repeater), bought up large last time it was there a few years ago.
KFL $1 (Whole market to come back at least 30-40% and quite possibly more)
MEL $3 (Buy all day at that price).
MLN 60 cents (40% retracement in US markets would be nice, they're certainly not on as stretched metrics as the NZX, nowhere near)
OCA 80 cents (20% discount to NTA)
RYM $7 (No real case for them being on such a massive PE premium to the rest of the sector...needs a real bashing for me to be interested)
SUM $4 (Julian is now on my naughty list so I'll need a 20% discount to NTA)
MET $3.50 (inept management and imminent takeover failure, needs to be half NTA to get me interested)
THL 90 cents. (Serious trouble here but a massive restructuring and selldown of the fleet might see them escape chapter 11 in the USA and administration here provided they get some Govt support like AIR desperately need)
Caveat, anything bought would have to have shown some (at least modest TA buy signal) before I would dip my paws in the water.

After the detailed update from OCA today 60 cents was simply too sexy for me to resist, more than 40% discount to NTA and nearly a 50% discount to their NAV figure of about $1,15 from memory. No TA signal but I couldn't help myself dipping the front leading edge of just one of my paws in the water.
Bad dog, I have sinned and will probably get punished...back to my kennel now and watch the train wreck of this market unfold some more.

[oldtech]

Appreciate the update Beagle! I personally am staying away from all retirement shares at the moment, but good on ya for giving it a go. :t_up:

Hope you don't end up howling at the moon tonight.

[Beagle]

Appreciate the update Beagle! I personally am staying away from all retirement shares at the moment, but good on ya for giving it a go. :t_up:

Hope you don't end up howling at the moon tonight.

Its okay... I learned as a 3 year old that if you put your hand on the stove and it gets burned, don't put the other one on there as well...a lesson not easily forgotten lol

[Sideshow Bob]

Its okay... I learned as a 3 year old that if you put your hand on the stove and it gets burned, don't put the other one on there as well...a lesson not easily forgotten lol

I distinctly remember putting my hand on an old school range element when I was a nipper. Had the rings on my hands for weeks!! ;)

There is a few temptations out there, but falling knives and all that. The bear is just coming out of his cave I feel.

[Grimy]

I distinctly remember putting my hand on an old school range element when I was a nipper. Had the rings on my hands for weeks!!

Yep. I remember at high school in winter there was always a competition to see who could hold onto the radiator the longest (between the boys-the girls were never that stupid).
I seemed to often win. Probably explains some of my poorer investment decisions...…..

Watching OCA (bought some), SKC, ANZ, WBC, HGH, SPK and NWF

[Yoda]

So is serko dead in the water ?

[King1212]

So is serko dead in the water ?

Not only dead....burnt to ash....

[Entrep]

Looks like a lot of the price targets will get hit today

[artemis]

No crystal ball here but we do know there is going to be big infrastructure spending. Maybe more than the $12B announced and / or spending brought forward. STU is my pick.

[skid]

BBOZ is like russian roullette...black or red....crazy and you hardly pick up whether the market is up or down. US down, OZ might up...vice versa. Crazy....

Volitility....doesnt listen to rational

[skid]

Its okay... I learned as a 3 year old that if you put your hand on the stove and it gets burned, don't put the other one on there as well...a lesson not easily forgotten lol

some do forget..;)......................All our thoughts and instincts are governed by our environment
Its the backdrop....if that environment backdrop is still the raging Bull market ,if that is what is being compared to ,that may need some readjustment ....It works the other way also,but Im not sure we are far enough into it yet(where people start thinking there is no hope).....but ,who knows for sure....................Guess the key here is that the virus doesnt get loose in any retirement homes....that its gets cointained....but unlike some shares,retirement homes are more closely related to this situation(like airlines,until its run its course......................Lets just hope its not like Italy where its looking like its going to have to run through the population to achieve Herd immunity

[Joshuatree]

BBOZ is like russian roullette...black or red....crazy and you hardly pick up whether the market is up or down. US down, OZ might up...vice versa. Crazy....

Sure is, lucky i got in early @$8.83 currently $15.50 plus so i have a cushion and can ride the trend.Im not buying anymore.


"A 1% fall in the Australian share market on a given day can generally be expected to deliver a 2.0% to 2.75% increase in the value of the Fund (and vice versa)"






Off thread but on the Russian theme.Putin looks to have chosen his moment.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/2888352-russia-pulls-90000-troops-1100-tanks-hundreds-of-planes-to-border-with-ukraine.html

[Sideshow Bob]

Looks like a lot of the price targets will get hit today

But will they pull the trigger??

[Manukatana]

But will they pull the trigger??
do you mean the market will be halted?

[Sideshow Bob]

do you mean the market will be halted?

No. It was in response to people's price targets on various stocks being hit. Market still highly uncertain, volatile and dropping - so question was even if an individual share price gets to someones price 'target', will they actually buy in the situation - given it could well be lower very soon.

I see a bit of potential in various stocks, but still very risk-adverse and most definitely keeping my powder dry in the meantime. Rather buy on an upswing at a higher price than have to endure further lows.

[skid]

I know alot have talked about buying shares cheap.............But Im finding the drop in Gold a bit of a mystery....My only guess is that many are having to sell to pay off stock debts?.....It is one of the few things that tempt me at this stage.................Im no expert but once the panic dust settles just a bit ...It seems logical that it could appreciate considerably...(although the low dollar atm is kind of a spanner in the works)

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

How on earth are CEN and NWF down so heavily? Even TLT is down. Makes no sense to me. Alternative energy should be performing well at the moment I would have thought.

[King1212]

Yes...I was assessing the current..this selling is totally panic selling.

Why I said so....many kiwis saw bad news..share market down..then they are all flocking to change their funds to cash or conservative fund.

Many newbies bought at the peak..as our return in interest are pretty bad during last couple years...

So....yeahh

[Cadalac123]

Will be riding TQQQ all the way up when the correction finishes .

IKE is a strong buy imo especially at current prices but would pickup a lot more under 40c

Would love to enter a big name like meinfreight

[GTM 3442]

The best companies to snap up?

In general, I'll be buying back into the companies that I've sold.

[Beagle]

Okay so here is my Christmas list assuming a deep bear market all year and my indicative target prices
AIR 75 cents (gosh you say, it couldn't happen, oh yes it can, history suggests this is a pure cyclical and has been there before more than once)
ATM $8 (has been there before, massive hype built into the current stretched PE)
ARG $1 (still trading at a solid premium to NTA, looking for a 20 - 25% discount to NTA)
ARV $1 (had a huge run and a large retracement is quite possible)
BRM 35 cents (would buy all day long if this got down there)
GNE $2 (ditto above)
GMT $1.40 (As for ARG I would want a 20-25% discount to NTA)
HGH $1 (Things get ugly for Bank's in a bear market - I'd need to be snooping, (you see what I did there Snoopy) around there to think I'd got a real bargain)
HLG $2.70Trigger point hit on HLG today but I will need solid TA support to buy back in
KFL $1 (Whole market to come back at least 30-40% and quite possibly more)
MEL $3 (Buy all day at that price).
MLN 60 cents (40% retracement in US markets would be nice, they're certainly not on as stretched metrics as the NZX, nowhere near)
OCA 80 cents (20% discount to NTA)
RYM $7 (No real case for them being on such a massive PE premium to the rest of the sector...needs a real bashing for me to be interested)
SUM $3 (Julian is now on my naughty list so I'll need a 40% discount to NTA)
MET $3.50 (inept management and imminent takeover failure, needs to be half NTA to get me interested)
THL 90 cents. (Serious trouble here but a massive restructuring and selldown of the fleet might see them escape chapter 11 in the USA and administration here provided they get some Govt support like AIR desperately need)
Caveat, anything bought would have to have shown some (at least modest TA buy signal) before I would dip my paws in the water.

Updated view.
Deep value now in ARG especially now that the Government has reinstated the ability to claim depreciation on commercial buildings with effect from 1 April 2020. Very tempted by this one.

Trigger point hit on HLG today but I will need a break back up through the 30 day MA to commit to buying back in. Where's the floor ? Anyone's guess but the low of $2.13 in the GFC might be worth remembering as a marker.

OCA - Very deep value there now at 55 cents - Yes I regret my lack of discipline yesterday but it was only a 1.0% portfolio position. I won't be a seller at this level and will take whatever punishment is coming my way that I fully deserve for breaking my own discipline. Pain is the best teacher ! Once bitten, twice shy !

AIR and THL are in desperate trouble with the total shut down of the border - No longer interested at any price.

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976516510/stocks-hit-record-lows-as-market-suffers-logical-volatility.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+19+Mar+ 2020

[SailorRob]

What's the Beagles price target on our beloved airport?

[Beagle]

The share price graph is truly scary. I would stay well away but for the very brave who can be incredibly patient and are happy to wait for what may be many years to get back to a normal level of profitability, a 50% discount to NTA say, $2.50 might be a useful marker. I expect a massive drop tomorrow with the complete closure of our border sinking into the share price.

In my opinion you are better not to have a price target on this one or any of its ilk in the tourism sector, AIR, THL, SKC. Fundamental analysis is rendered almost completely useless at times like this. Simply wait for a new uptrend when it breaks back up through its 30 day moving average, whenever that might be and it could be a long time. I might add this one to my utilities and infrastructure watchlist. Its always been too expensive in my book but that could be changing very fast !

[patrick]

BLT
Less likely to sink further than most holdings, and potential?

[Gerald]

Updated view.
Deep value now in ARG especially now that the Government has reinstated the ability to claim depreciation on commercial buildings with effect from 1 April 2020. Very tempted by this one.

Trigger point hit on HLG today but I will need a break back up through the 30 day MA to commit to buying back in. Where's the floor ? Anyone's guess but the low of $2.13 in the GFC might be worth remembering as a marker.

OCA - Very deep value there now at 55 cents - Yes I regret my lack of discipline yesterday but it was only a 1.0% portfolio position. I won't be a seller at this level and will take whatever punishment is coming my way that I fully deserve for breaking my own discipline. Pain is the best teacher ! Once bitten, twice shy !

AIR and THL are in desperate trouble with the total shut down of the border - No longer interested at any price.

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976516510/stocks-hit-record-lows-as-market-suffers-logical-volatility.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+19+Mar+ 2020

Had a quick look at ARG, trading at about a 25% discount to NTA. Worth noting after 2008 it was trading at a 43% discount to NTA, much like KPG is now, although obviously lacking the exposure to retail which is nice.

No expert but just from a glance may have the potential to fall more then something like OCA which is already at a 45% ish discount?

[Onion]

KFL has been remarkably resilient. Compared to FNZ or MDZ it has been a ROCK! Any rationality to its [relative] stability?

[kiora]

I know alot have talked about buying shares cheap.............But Im finding the drop in Gold a bit of a mystery....My only guess is that many are having to sell to pay off stock debts?.....It is one of the few things that tempt me at this stage.................Im no expert but once the panic dust settles just a bit ...It seems logical that it could appreciate considerably...(although the low dollar atm is kind of a spanner in the works)

Financial liquidity every where you look seems shot to pieces.I wonder if these instruments have something to do with it?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic_Emergency_Financing_Facility

[Onion]

I heard about someone that sold a farm recently. Got an 8 figure sum. Has the cash in the bank at present. Just imaging how many shares (pick any) he can buy relative to 2 months ago!

[Beagle]

KFL peak earlier this month was $1.76, now down 28% to $1.27. NZX50 is down from a peak of 12,070 to 9115 = 24.5% drop.
KFL were overpriced earlier this month, something I commented on several times. I think they have basically fallen in line with the market but today's closing price of $1.27 probably does not reflect the drop in NTA caused by today's market fall. I estimate NTA at close of business today is just $1.24 so fair value movement is a drop of 29.5% in recent weeks.

FNZ has fallen by more than the market which is a bit unusual - 31%, and MDZ 32% indicating mid caps have copped a real beating lately.

[Beagle]

Had a quick look at ARG, trading at about a 25% discount to NTA. Worth noting after 2008 it was trading at a 43% discount to NTA, much like KPG is now, although obviously lacking the exposure to retail which is nice.

No expert but just from a glance may have the potential to fall more then something like OCA which is already at a 45% ish discount?

Thanks for highlighting the risk. Current yield is 6.68% net, (they are a PIE) so for 33% taxpayers that's worth 10% gross. The reinstatement of depreciation on commercial buildings should see them pay considerably less tax going forward enabling dividends to be raised, but still retaining PIE status. If we get down to that sort of discount to NTA I think I'd be very keen indeed.

[SailorRob]

KFL peak earlier this month was $1.76, now down 28% to $1.27. NZX50 is down from a peak of 12,070 to 9115 = 24.5% drop.
KFL were overpriced earlier this month, something I commented on several times. I think they have basically fallen in line with the market but today's closing price of $1.27 probably does not reflect the drop in NTA caused by today's market fall. I estimate NTA at close of business today is just $1.24 so fair value movement is a drop of 29.5% in recent weeks.

FNZ has fallen by more than the market which is a bit unusual - 31%, and MDZ 32% indicating mid caps have copped a real beating lately.


Thanks for the AIA input. FNZ disparity odd, thought it might be something to do with the NZX50 being a total return, but has also fallen more then the NZ50C too, which is what I always look at otherwise pointless comparing to any offshore market.

[Beagle]

Thanks for the AIA input. FNZ disparity odd, thought it might be something to do with the NZX50 being a total return, but has also fallen more then the NZ50C too, which is what I always look at otherwise pointless comparing to any offshore market.

You're welcome. The market is a hard taskmaster. Remember the average bear market lasts 11 months and loses 44% according to our resident TA expert Hoop. Given the massively overpriced market forward PE of 32.5 at the end of the greatest bull run of our lives, I am expecting the market to halve, as a minimum. Wake me up when the NZX50 has fallen from 12,070 to 6,000, we're not quite half way there so far ! The last time the market correctly this quickly was as the 1929 Great Depression started. Hmmm...91 years later some would say we are due for another great depression and shake a ton of excess out of the system !

So how bad could it get ? If for example market earnings decline 30% and we return to a forward PE of 15, (usually corrects below the long run average in a bear market, current decade long average is 18) we could see the market correct quite dramatically to 15 / 32.5 x 0.7 x 12.070 = 3900 on the NZX50, over time. i.e it could more than halve from here despite the recent strong correction ! Obviously in a multi year great depression scenario where earnings fall much further there are even more serious scenario's that are quite possible. I like Kiwi Bonds, the return of all your capital is the paramount consideration at present, in my opinion. Return on capital is a secondary consideration as the bear continues his rapid rampage.

[THEONE]

Hi Beagle care to do another list, this time though prices in say 18 months?

[SailorRob]

You're welcome. The market is a hard taskmaster. Remember the average bear market lasts 11 months and loses 44% according to our resident TA expert Hoop. Given the massively overpriced market forward PE of 32.5 at the end of the greatest bull run of our lives, I am expecting the market to halve, as a minimum. Wake me up when the NZX50 has fallen from 12,070 to 6,000, we're not quite half way there so far ! The last time the market correctly this quickly was as the 1929 Great Depression started. Hmmm...91 years later some would say we are due for another great depression and shake a ton of excess out of the system !

So how bad could it get ? If for example market earnings decline 30% and we return to a forward PE of 15, (usually corrects below the long run average in a bear market, current decade long average is 18) we could see the market correct quite dramatically to 15 / 32.5 x 0.7 x 12.070 = 3900 on the NZX50, over time. i.e it could more than halve from here despite the recent strong correction ! Obviously in a multi year great depression scenario where earnings fall much further there are even more serious scenario's that are quite possible. I like Kiwi Bonds, the return of all your capital is the paramount consideration at present, in my opinion. Return on capital is a secondary consideration as the bear continues his rapid rampage.

Yes very good points. A lot of the 12000 attained by the NZX50 was reinvested dividends as this is the only index that is a gross one. See the attached chart of the real NZ50 capital index measured same way as all other international indexes vs the NZX50 we are used to looking at which is distorted by reinvested dividends.

[kiora]

Financial liquidity every where you look seems shot to pieces.I wonder if these instruments have something to do with it?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic_Emergency_Financing_Facility

Margin calls liquidity crash, how much more to come?
"The problem with individuals and "passive" investing is they are just "active" investors in a different form. They make all the same mistakes that individual stock investors make, such as "buying high and selling low," but just using a different instrument to do it."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4330842-market-crash-reveals-liquidity-problem-of-passive-investing
"Michael Lewis book The Big Short (and was later played by Christian Bale in the movie version), recently compared index funds to the toxic CDOs he made so much money shorting when the real estate bubble blew up. Burry claims the flows into index funds are distorting stock and bond markets, and when those flows reverse "it will be ugly."
https://fortune.com/2019/09/14/passive-investing-stock-market-bubble-etfs/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wealthy-facing-margin-calls-show-022921359.html

[ratkin]

It does seem there is likely to be a constant dripping each day of bad stories as the virus spreads. So I think there will be a real chance of a miasma descending on the market with over-compensation for expected risks. I am not sure at this stage what to put on my watch list.

Agree that this is the best time to dust off all the old TA books. Sentiment rules in these conditions.
Time to divide the market into sectors like Beagle did with the retirement stocks, and wait till they turn upwards and pick the strongest of the group (technically). Different sectors will rise at different times. There is always the temptation to just buy the thing that looks the most beaten up, that is not the right way.

Utilities, Retail, Property, Health, Retirement, Tourism, technology. All will have a time to buy, but will not necessarily be at the same time. only stock I have bought so far is FPH. Much prefer to buy strength than weakness.

Buying something just because it is much cheaper than a month ago is not a legitimate plan

TLDR Follow the sector charts closely and when they look like turning up invest in the group leader

[Beagle]

Hi Beagle care to do another list, this time though prices in say 18 months?

That will be quite a challenge but one I will relish. I need to do some really deep thinking about how various companies on my watchlist will emerge from this Covid 19 crisis, some may not survive this. Balance sheet strength and resiliency of their cash flow will be the keys. I'll get back to you on that one...might not be for a couple of weeks though.

Of course predicting the future that far ahead will involve the huge variable around how severe this crisis becomes...so I will work on a base case using best known information from the MOH that they expect the peak to be in 5 months and assume the tail is also 5 months, I will refer to this as a U shaped recovery, a worse case, this is still with us in a severe way in 18 months time and we are in a great depression, an L shaped recovery, and a best case, a V shaped recovery, which to be frank, I think is very unlikely. I will have a price target for each company I follow for each of these scenario's and may then look to assign a probability to each scenario to arrive at an expected outcome on the balance of probabilities.

[macduffy]

Don' forget to take away the number you first thought of, Beagle. In other words, I think you're wasting your time trying to model shareprices at this stage.

:blink:

[Joshuatree]

Yes but it at least is raising awareness that now is NOT the time to be averaging or buying in IMO.We have a long way to go to peak infections for example and bit by bit nearly the whole world is shutting down not just us. Pick a timeframe.

[macduffy]

now is NOT the time to be averaging or buying in IMO

I agree completely!

[value_investor]

I agree completely!

Disagree completely, I think the next 2-3 months will present some incredible value if not already been provided.

[Zaphod]

Disagree completely, I think the next 2-3 months will present some incredible value if not already been provided.

IMO, perhaps. There are still a number of variables at play. If we can't contain the spread of this outbreak, there the repercussions will be even more serious. We've never faced a situation like this in modern times.

[Joshuatree]

I can see your point of view VI. Always exceptions. But i a mere amateur mortal for one have pretty average analytic (i can be easily fooled trying to interpret a complex balance sheet) and T/A skills and dont have an endless supply of cash BUT someone who i have a lot of respect for as an investor is buying in, averaging down .

Unlike me he is the best analyst i have come across ever, so he researches his companies forensically and is left with top quality companies with generally great balance sheets of which he knows their managements quality and history and valuations accurately, he ignores all brokers research notes and their picks/sells . This eliminates emotion, eliminates FOMO and EGO, 2 of the biggest pitfalls for us ordinary folk.

So when these companies drop into a sizeable discount to HIS valn,he starts adding to his positions totally ignoring whats going on in the world, he is buying a part ownership in a great company(rather then thinking of buying shares in a company). Longer term he is really confident that averaging down now will pay off for him with his own particular needs and criteria.

He is not chasing bargains and big gains but some companies he is averaging down in have dropped heaps look to be going alot more, scary to look at from here. One needs alot of resolve and discipline. He is also expecting cap raises at very low prices in afew he targets to be in on.


Another tactic is to invest 2% of your cash every time the mkt drops 4%!

The beauty here is he doesn't have to worry away about where the bottom is and trying to pick bottoms is a total waste of time imo and involves some hand cleanser sanitation (currently unavailable:)after.And when the mkt confidence does return rebounds can be like a coilled titanium spring, swift and high. You can miss it.

im also assuming i will still be here but unlike many selfish "bullet proof younger people who are still crowding at parties , beaches etc and spreading Covid 19 to their grandparents im distancing etc.

Im being pretty basic and waiting for peak infection signs in Europe and USA, Britain etc and hope to get back in nearer a bottom(either side will do). Lots of false hope imo re vaccines cloud the issue somewhat and complicate decision making.

I do keep asking, what are ones time frames for when the world does start opening up again and manufacture and supply chains flow again, people start earning ?. 3 moths, 6, a year more? Govt's can only bail out for so long.

[ynot]

I can see your point of view VI. Always exceptions. But i a mere amateur mortal for one have pretty average analytic (i can be easily fooled trying to interpret a complex balance sheet) and T/A skills and dont have an endless supply of cash BUT someone who i have a lot of respect for as an investor is buying in, averaging down .

Unlike me he is the best analyst i have come across ever, so he researches his companies forensically and is left with top quality companies with generally great balance sheets of which he knows their managements quality and history and valuations accurately, he ignores all brokers research notes and their picks/sells . This eliminates emotion, eliminates FOMO and EGO, 2 of the biggest pitfalls for us ordinary folk.

So when these companies drop into a sizeable discount to HIS valn,he starts adding to his positions totally ignoring whats going on in the world, he is buying a part ownership in a great company(rather then thinking of buying shares in a company). Longer term he is really confident that averaging down now will pay off for him with his own particular needs and criteria.

He is not chasing bargains and big gains but some companies he is averaging down in have dropped heaps look to be going alot more, scary to look at from here. One needs alot of resolve and discipline. He is also expecting cap raises at very low prices in afew he targets to be in on.


Another tactic is to invest 2% of your cash every time the mkt drops 4%!

The beauty here is he doesn't have to worry away about where the bottom is and trying to pick bottoms is a total waste of time imo and involves some hand cleanser sanitation (currently unavailable:)after.And when the mkt confidence does return rebounds can be like a coilled titanium spring, swift and high. You can miss it.

im also assuming i will still be here but unlike many selfish "bullet proof younger people who are still crowding at parties , beaches etc and spreading Covid 19 to their grandparents im distancing etc.

Im being pretty basic and waiting for peak infection signs in Europe and USA, Britain etc and hope to get back in nearer a bottom(either side will do). Lots of false hope imo re vaccines cloud the issue somewhat and complicate decision making.

I do keep asking, what are ones time frames for when the world does start opening up again and manufacture and supply chains flow again, people start earning ?. 3 moths, 6, a year more? Govt's can only bail out for so long.
Great post JT. I am a lot like you regards knowing what to do. Based on your friends investing ability I will be keeping a close eye on your recommendations !

[Joshuatree]

No no,no. Look whats happened to naive people following couta down! Do not follow anyone. , gather info sure but make your own responsible decisions, based on solid facts, discipline and focus. Everyone makes mistakes even the example above stuffs up. Dont expect recipes (reccos, spellcheck :) from me . stay healthy.

[ynot]

No no,no. Look whats happened to naive people following couta down! Do not follow anyone. , gather info sure but make your own responsible decisions, based on solid facts, discipline and focus. Everyone makes mistakes even the example above stuffs up. Dont expect recipes (reccos, spellcheck :) from me . stay healthy.

Point taken. I do keep a close eye on this forum though as at does provoke plenty of thought.

[DoctorG]

Is there a chance these property companies will suffer, if businesses go bust, then they would default on their rents.

[macduffy]

Disagree completely, I think the next 2-3 months will present some incredible value if not already been provided.

I was talking about now - not the next 2-3 months - let's see what the next 2-3 days or weeks brings.

:mellow:

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12318795

Anyone without access should subscribe...there's stuff in there you need to know.

All I will say in support of what is written in that article is that I know from first hand experience that it was a very "interesting" week for the liquidity of some banks operating in N.Z.

[couta1]

No no,no. Look whats happened to naive people following couta down! Do not follow anyone. , gather info sure but make your own responsible decisions, based on solid facts, discipline and focus. Everyone makes mistakes even the example above stuffs up. Dont expect recipes (reccos, spellcheck :) from me . stay healthy. I would expect a little better from you in times like these than cheap shots Jt, I never asked anyone to do anything, I'm a straight up person and simply post what I'm holding and doing with added enthusiasm at times, each must make their own choices and decisions, it's a forum which by definition is simply an exchange of thoughts and ideas with or without research.

[RupertBear]

I would expect a little better from you in times like these than cheap shots Jt, I never asked anyone to do anything, I'm a straight up person and simply post what I'm holding and doing with added enthusiasm at times, each must make their own choices and decisions, it's a forum which by definition is simply an exchange of thoughts and ideas with or without research.

Quite true Couta, I dont recall you ever encouraging people to follow your investing path. You seem like a genuine up front kinda guy to me who just happens to go big on HGL and has posted as such. I imagine you are down quite badly on this one at the moment so ignore Jts comment as I am sure he/she meant no malice behind it. Take care :)

[trackers]

I can see your point of view VI. Always exceptions. But i a mere amateur mortal for one have pretty average analytic (i can be easily fooled trying to interpret a complex balance sheet) and T/A skills and dont have an endless supply of cash BUT someone who i have a lot of respect for as an investor is buying in, averaging down .

Unlike me he is the best analyst i have come across ever, so he researches his companies forensically and is left with top quality companies with generally great balance sheets of which he knows their managements quality and history and valuations accurately, he ignores all brokers research notes and their picks/sells . This eliminates emotion, eliminates FOMO and EGO, 2 of the biggest pitfalls for us ordinary folk.

So when these companies drop into a sizeable discount to HIS valn,he starts adding to his positions totally ignoring whats going on in the world, he is buying a part ownership in a great company(rather then thinking of buying shares in a company). Longer term he is really confident that averaging down now will pay off for him with his own particular needs and criteria.

He is not chasing bargains and big gains but some companies he is averaging down in have dropped heaps look to be going alot more, scary to look at from here. One needs alot of resolve and discipline. He is also expecting cap raises at very low prices in afew he targets to be in on.


Another tactic is to invest 2% of your cash every time the mkt drops 4%!

The beauty here is he doesn't have to worry away about where the bottom is and trying to pick bottoms is a total waste of time imo and involves some hand cleanser sanitation (currently unavailable:)after.And when the mkt confidence does return rebounds can be like a coilled titanium spring, swift and high. You can miss it.

im also assuming i will still be here but unlike many selfish "bullet proof younger people who are still crowding at parties , beaches etc and spreading Covid 19 to their grandparents im distancing etc.

Im being pretty basic and waiting for peak infection signs in Europe and USA, Britain etc and hope to get back in nearer a bottom(either side will do). Lots of false hope imo re vaccines cloud the issue somewhat and complicate decision making.

I do keep asking, what are ones time frames for when the world does start opening up again and manufacture and supply chains flow again, people start earning ?. 3 moths, 6, a year more? Govt's can only bail out for so long.

Generally speaking, what your mate is doing is sensible: The valuations of these great company have been slashed by a bear market, and you can pick them up cheaply and wait for the rebound. All good.

The problem with it this time however, and what a lot of the value investors on here are missing, is that the share prices aren't just declining because of a panic. They're declining because of both a panic and also a fundamental revaluation of the business based on what is happening.

Is your mate revaluing the businesses based on what's happening? I bet he isn't (because he can't; the impact is unknowable). But he/she should be trying. Revenue is going down. Economy is hitting a recession. Demand will be suppressed for a long time due to big hits to our main industry (tourists staying away) and less money recirculating.

A few of us have been saying for weeks already that buying at this stage is crazy, but people have been doing it already and paying the price....and in my opinion will continue to. Good luck...

[Cadalac123]

Here’s a potential view ok no one needs to listen to it. But it’s a potential strategy.

Some companies will be temporary impacted or almost not impacted at all . Some will suffer for a couple of months but retain their future cash flows post the obvious event happening now.

If you can spot companies like that and you hold them already why would you sell them? And if you don’t hold them why would you get stung DCAing a company that’s fell 40 plus percent? You’re in dream land if you think every company will go to 0.010c

[Baa_Baa]

A few of us have been saying for weeks already that buying at this stage is crazy, but people have been doing it already and paying the price....and in my opinion will continue to. Good luck...

Sorry for cherry picking your post but this comment stood on its own merits. Bear in mind that every share sold on the way down had a buyer, every single share. Not every 'people', or fund, or insto, or kiwisaver cares about whether they'll be priced lower tomorrow, they see value, they buy off distressed sellers. Deep pockets and optimistic investors will just keep buying what they see as value whether one thinks it's crazy or not. This will continue into whatever the bottom prices for individual stocks are. Every seller has a buyer.

[trackers]

Sorry for cherry picking your post but this comment stood on its own merits. Bear in mind that every share sold on the way down had a buyer, every single share. Not every 'people', or fund, or insto, or kiwisaver cares about whether they'll be priced lower tomorrow, they see value, they buy off distressed sellers. Deep pockets and optimistic investors will just keep buying what they see as value whether one thinks it's crazy or not. This will continue into whatever the bottom prices for individual stocks are. Every seller has a buyer.

Yeah you are absolutely right there is a buyer for every trade.

Like I was saying, in my opinion, the problem lies in the fact that people are seeing value based on information that's not valid anymore. I'm pretty comfortable that yesterdays valuation for almost all companies has no relationship with tomorrows, but to what extent I have no idea and won't be trying to guess!

[Snoopy]

Generally speaking, what your mate is doing is sensible:


Quite right. Who on here would have picked that Joshuatree personally knew Warren Buffett....



The valuations of these great company have been slashed by a bear market, and you can pick them up cheaply and wait for the rebound. All good.

The problem with it this time however, and what a lot of the value investors on here are missing, is that the share prices aren't just declining because of a panic. They're declining because of both a panic and also a fundamental revaluation of the business based on what is happening.

Is your mate revaluing the businesses based on what's happening? I bet he isn't (because he can't; the impact is unknowable). But he/she should be trying. Revenue is going down. Economy is hitting a recession. Demand will be suppressed for a long time due to big hits to our main industry (tourists staying away) and less money recirculating.


Personally I have, for a long time, invested assuming a recession is just around the corner. This means avoiding every flavour of the month. With shares of a popular flavour you tend to pay too much to buy a growth story that may or may not happen as projected. It also usually means investing in the most boring shares possible, again to stay away from the hype. After losing big the last time Air NZ almost went bust, I subsequently decided to stay away from the tourism sector too. Too fickle, too small a margin.

There have been various fundamental re-evaluations of business models over the decades. But through it all, humans seem to still need food, clothing and shelter. Investing in themes along those lines, I would suggest would make a solid base for an enduring investment portfolio.



A few of us have been saying for weeks already that buying at this stage is crazy, but people have been doing it already and paying the price....and in my opinion will continue to. Good luck...


Such investors are only 'paying the price' if you look at such investments through 'trader glasses'. Personally I would never put money in a share if I knew that I was going to be required to sell it weeks or months later. If you buy on a prospective dividend yield and the share price goes down after you buy, you still have your prospective dividend yield.

The price set by Mr Market each day is simply an invitation to buy or sell. Even the ultimate party girl does not have to accept every invitation.

SNOOPY

[couta1]

Quite true Couta, I dont recall you ever encouraging people to follow your investing path. You seem like a genuine up front kinda guy to me who just happens to go big on HGL and has posted as such. I imagine you are down quite badly on this one at the moment so ignore Jts comment as I am sure he/she meant no malice behind it. Take care :) Thanks RB, I wont be around for a while on here as my wife is going to change my password and of course you need the old password to change it back which I wont have, she can be a tough taskmaster and wont be letting me know the new one until she's thinks I should have it, happy stargazing.:cool:

[Cadalac123]

Thanks RB, I wont be around for a while on here as my wife is going to change my password and of course you need the old password to change it back which I wont have, she can be a tough taskmaster and wont be letting me know the new one until she's thinks I should have it, happy stargazing.:cool:

Good decision mate, will welcome you when you're back

[RupertBear]

Thanks RB, I wont be around for a while on here as my wife is going to change my password and of course you need the old password to change it back which I wont have, she can be a tough taskmaster and wont be letting me know the new one until she's thinks I should have it, happy stargazing.:cool:

That sounds like a complicated system :eek2: hope it helps. And happy star gazing to you too. I am waiting for my 12” to arrive :t_up: as the stars are my happy place at the moment. Just hope it arrives before we are locked down :mellow:

[airedale]

As far as buying on the way down, most of us will not have deep deep pockets. So the old saying is that markets can remain illogical longer than we can remain solvent.

[Cadalac123]

As far as buying on the way down, most of us will not have deep deep pockets. So the old saying is that markets can remain illogical longer than we can remain solvent.

So true......

[Beagle]

As far as buying on the way down, most of us will not have deep deep pockets. So the old saying is that markets can remain illogical longer than we can remain solvent.

Don't think many of us on here have leveraged positions though. Perhaps that well known saying should be the market can remain illogical longer the we can remain sane lol

[GBM]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018739149

Blis Probiotics CEO on Radio New Zealand saying they’re looking at employing more staff and running double shifts in an effort to keep up with current demand.

[ratkin]

As far as buying on the way down, most of us will not have deep deep pockets. So the old saying is that markets can remain illogical longer than we can remain solvent.

Does not matter how deep your pockets are, standing in front of a moving bus is never ok.
At least use a stochastic or RSI indicator, anything that shows the bus has put the brakes on.

[blackcap]

Okay so here is my Christmas list assuming a deep bear market all year and my indicative target prices
AIR 75 cents (gosh you say, it couldn't happen, oh yes it can, history suggests this is a pure cyclical and has been there before more than once)
ATM $8 (has been there before, massive hype built into the current stretched PE)
ARG $1 (still trading at a solid premium to NTA, looking for a 20 - 25% discount to NTA)
ARV $1 (had a huge run and a large retracement is quite possible)
BRM 35 cents (would buy all day long if this got down there)
GNE $2 (ditto above)
GMT $1.40 (As for ARG I would want a 20-25% discount to NTA)
HGH $1 (Things get ugly for Bank's in a bear market - I'd need to be snooping, (you see what I did there Snoopy) :) around there to think I'd got a real bargain)
HLG $2.70 (nothing sweeter than a repeater), bought up large last time it was there a few years ago.
KFL $1 (Whole market to come back at least 30-40% and quite possibly more)
MEL $3 (Buy all day at that price).
MLN 60 cents (40% retracement in US markets would be nice, they're certainly not on as stretched metrics as the NZX, nowhere near)
OCA 80 cents (20% discount to NTA)
RYM $7 (No real case for them being on such a massive PE premium to the rest of the sector...needs a real bashing for me to be interested)
SUM $4 (Julian is now on my naughty list so I'll need a 20% discount to NTA)
MET $3.50 (inept management and imminent takeover failure, needs to be half NTA to get me interested)
THL 90 cents. (Serious trouble here but a massive restructuring and selldown of the fleet might see them escape chapter 11 in the USA and administration here provided they get some Govt support like AIR desperately need)
Caveat, anything bought would have to have shown some (at least modest TA buy signal) before I would dip my paws in the water.

Quite a few more have been hit today Beagle. THL, SUM, HGH. Have you bought? and the likes of MLN, Air and RYM etc are getting close. I am guessing you have not apart form the small purchase of OCA, as you said that some TA buy signals would have had to have been in place first.

[oldtech]

Quite a few more have been hit today Beagle. THL, SUM, HGH. Have you bought? and the likes of MLN, Air and RYM etc are getting close. I am guessing you have not apart form the small purchase of OCA, as you said that some TA buy signals would have had to have been in place first.

I am watching HGH (and SKL also) closely, but not hitting the button yet. Even if I did it would be a small order at this uncertain stage of the game.

I wouldn't be touching THL with a barge pole, they were in serious difficulties long before covid-19 hit us. Beagle has also updated the above list to say he's no longer interested, I believe.

[Entrep]

THL will go bankrupt

[blackcap]

I commented on the THL balance sheet on another thread a few days ago. It does not inspire confidence. I can see them going under.

[Beagle]

Quite a few more have been hit today Beagle. THL, SUM, HGH. Have you bought? and the likes of MLN, Air and RYM etc are getting close. I am guessing you have not apart form the small purchase of OCA, as you said that some TA buy signals would have had to have been in place first.

Once bitten twice shy ! Definitely need to see some TA support before dipping another paw in the water but the pace of the fall is really confronting to say the least !

THL might find a rental market with the Govt for quarantine.

[beetills]

No share whizz for sure and certainly not rolling in money,however today i decided to buy a few shares and put them in the bottom drawer.
EVO
WDT
HGH
CDI
IKE
SRF

[Cadalac123]

Good picks

[patrick]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018739149

Blis Probiotics CEO on Radio New Zealand saying they’re looking at employing more staff and running double shifts in an effort to keep up with current demand.

For sure, so long as they can CONTINUE to produce product and supply chemists. Some chemists out of stock and “ out of stock” on Company’s site for Daily Defence. Just got the last 4 boxes at Pharmacy in Riccarton.
Will any other Company have such a huge leap in demand for their product?
Dis. Holder

[patrick]

Thanks RB, I wont be around for a while on here as my wife is going to change my password and of course you need the old password to change it back which I wont have, she can be a tough taskmaster and wont be letting me know the new one until she's thinks I should have it, happy stargazing.:cool:

Get Mrs Bean to listen to Jacinta again. All the best.

[Entrep]

1. Why is this place do quiet on a relatively positive market day?
2. Any TA indicators being triggered?
3. Wait for US unemployment results to come out...

[macduffy]

1. Why is this place do quiet on a relatively positive market day?
2. Any TA indicators being triggered?
3. Wait for US unemployment results to come out...

It's just a lull, Entrep. Give it a few more days, at least.

:cool:

[peat]

1. Why is this place do quiet on a relatively positive market day?
2. Any TA indicators being triggered?
3. Wait for US unemployment results to come out...

people have stuff to do before lockdown?
very s/t rsi's showing beginning to be overbought.
don't think US payroll figures come out this week. its usually the first Fri in a month.

[Onion]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12318795

Anyone without access should subscribe...there's stuff in there you need to know.

All I will say in support of what is written in that article is that I know from first hand experience that it was a very "interesting" week for the liquidity of some banks operating in N.Z.

If you are a member of Wellington City Libraries you can freely access the NZ Herald online via web or app (PressReader).

Visit http://wcl.govt.nz/downloads/ for details.

Other publications include the Washington Post, The Daily Telegraph, The Independent, The Australian, etc.

For non-Wellingtonians your local library probably offers the same service.

[skid]

If you are a member of Wellington City Libraries you can freely access the NZ Herald online via web or app (PressReader).

Visit http://wcl.govt.nz/downloads/ for details.

Other publications include the Washington Post, The Daily Telegraph, The Independent, The Australian, etc.

For non-Wellingtonians your local library probably offers the same service.

They are shut down in Auckland

[youngatheart]

Most libraries in Auckland have free WiFi outside them so you should be able to login and get it that way. But you do need to go physically visit them to login, you can't do it from home.

[patrick]

Possible. Blis; ask your Chemist.

[Blue Skies]

I'm constantly amazed with the world battling this pandemic, FPH never gets a mention on this thread.

When this thread started FPH was 24.76 & in the last 3 weeks (when mostly everything else has been absolutely thumped) has gained about 22% at $30.

[iceman]

I'm constantly amazed with the world battling this pandemic, FPH never gets a mention on this thread.

When this thread started FPH was 24.76 & in the last 3 weeks (when mostly everything else has been absolutely thumped) has gained about 22% at $30.

I'm with you on that one Blue Skies. Been a nice share to have in the portfolio. Just wish I had more

[ratkin]

1. Why is this place do quiet on a relatively positive market day?
2. Any TA indicators being triggered?
3. Wait for US unemployment results to come out...

1) Could be a sign we bottomed. People were too exhausted, scared to get back in the fight.
2) None that I have seen. Only for FPH which has not fallen anyway. Even fast oscillators are not signalling yet on the vast majority of stocks

[Beagle]

If you are a member of Wellington City Libraries you can freely access the NZ Herald online via web or app (PressReader).

Visit http://wcl.govt.nz/downloads/ for details.

Other publications include the Washington Post, The Daily Telegraph, The Independent, The Australian, etc.

For non-Wellingtonians your local library probably offers the same service.

Thanks but I would rather just support what has been quite good journalism lately. Never been more important than to stay tapped into local news now.

[greater fool]

They are shut down in Auckland

https://www.aucklandlibraries.govt.nz/Pages/ebooks-and-emagazines.aspx

[peat]

https://www.aucklandlibraries.govt.nz/Pages/ebooks-and-emagazines.aspx

I went on a book buying spree when most folks were stocking up on toilet paper - I figured books can do for both entertainment and ablutions when you've read 'em.

I got a copy of The Sugar Bag Years so I can be psychologically prepared for dim days ahead

11153

Edit: and just so you know these people aren't queuing for toilet paper.

[garfy]

peat, I do like your style!!

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

No share whizz for sure and certainly not rolling in money,however today i decided to buy a few shares and put them in the bottom drawer.
SRF

I like many of these picks, beetills - but this one has my head-scratching. Is the logic that the demand for villages for additional capital via lending from SRF will rise due to stress on their businesses in the short term? I was concerned that there might be an emerging credit risk in the fund?

[iceman]

Thanks but I would rather just support what has been quite good journalism lately. Never been more important than to stay tapped into local news now.

Agree Beagle. Signed up from day one and happy to support NZ journalism now. Herald in my view far better than Stuff for some decent news and informative articles.

[Onion]

Thanks but I would rather just support what has been quite good journalism lately. Never been more important than to stay tapped into local news now.

I agree that we should pay for good news services. I pay a subscription that allows me to read the Dom Post online so I'm not averse to paying for news services.

I'm certain that NZ Herald will be paid for using this channel. It will be paid from the rates I pay to provide library services. I also read e-books via the library and I guarantee that the authors of those books are still getting paid.

Not all newspapers are available through this mechanism (e.g. Dom Post, NY Times) so NZ Herald have clearly decided to make the publication available.

[DarkHorse]

Hi STers, looks to me like a good time to start reinvesting any cash holdings.
Usually Australia's my happy hunting ground (so not very well versed with nz opportunities), but atm see obvious advantages in NZ's mainly soft (ie food) rather than hard commodity related businesses, esp exporters which will benefit from low dollar. Good sustainable dividends appeal too with such low interest rates. (Scales? Seeka? others?) What sectors and companies do you guys favour atm and which companies look to you to have high upside without taking too much risk?
Thanks for your ideas^^

[patrick]

Blis perhaps
One of the few business benefiting from the virus with increased demand for product, (extra shifts) and meeting a lot of that demand with its online sales.

[Felonius]

Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WPL) on the ASX.

80% of revenue comes from LNG sales. The share price has halved because the price of LNG is closely correlated to the oil price. Oil has been savaged.
Two reasons : 1. cv-19 keeping people at home
2. A price war between Saudi Arabia & Russia

WPL's balance sheet is sound as the company raised money last year at $27 per share to develop new projects. The big ones have been shelved.
Cost of production is low by world standards.

I have purchased shares in WPL at A$19.60 with a 5 year time frame.
In time I expect the oil price to recover to US$40.00 plus and the share price with it.
In the meantime the net dividend yield is about 5%. It is likely to continue on account of the company's cash warchest.

[Cyclical]

Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WPL) on the ASX.

80% of revenue comes from LNG sales. The share price has halved because the price of LNG is closely correlated to the oil price. Oil has been savaged.
Two reasons : 1. cv-19 keeping people at home
2. A price war between Saudi Arabia & Russia

WPL's balance sheet is sound as the company raised money last year at $27 per share to develop new projects. The big ones have been shelved.
Cost of production is low by world standards.

I have purchased shares in WPL at A$19.60 with a 5 year time frame.
In time I expect the oil price to recover to US$40.00 plus and the share price with it.
In the meantime the net dividend yield is about 5%. It is likely to continue on account of the company's cash warchest.

Probably not a bad idea for some AUD exposure too atm?

[turnip]

So, who stuck to their shopping list when the NZX crashed in March?


I will be looking out for good prices on ports (AIA POT SPN), horticulture (SEK FWL TGG) and aged/child care (ARV OCA EVO).

I bought OCA , EVO , and SEK not too far from the bottom, and I picked up some AIA later in the SPP.

IFT wasn't on my list, but I couldn''t resist topping up when it hit $3.00.

My main regret was not buying POT when it went below $5

[Ronnie]

Any updates to this a year on? :D

[Felonius]

Any updates to this a year on? :D

Mmm ... good question.

I think Wellington Drive (WDT) will keep improving from here.

The company sells products & software with world-wide application. It has a high-tech bent, top-notch customers including a subsidiary of Coca Cola, and the prospect of ever-increasing profits. Prior to covid revenue was growing 15% or more annually.

The company is only breaking even currently. However the market cap. reflects that.
My one reservation is the search for a new CEO to replace Greg Allen whom I rate highly.

Thank you Greg for bringing this company back from the dead (if you ever read this ).

[Entrep]

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