Potential POSITIVE effects of corona virus

[steveb]

How about we think positive for a change,what benefits can we expect from the virus.I would suggest that in 9 months time we will see a baby boom.Which should be a boost to the dairy industry.

[jonu]

Onya steveb.

Crises bring out the best and worst in people. I have seen that in people I know and different posters on this forum. I have certainly gained greater insight through this.

What will be a financial disaster for some will be a positive for others. There is no getting away from that. Many who are seeing their portfolio shrink day by day may well be in a position to regain it on the way back up. It's just hard to look ahead when you are swimming in mud.

These times may also give some an entry to the property ladder that they thought was beyond them. If you keep your job (and most will) there will be opportunities for people. Sadly at other's loss. That said, many have been sitting on a paper profit on their houses anyway. As long as they are not heavily leveraged they will be fine in the long run too.

[Lola]

How about we think positive for a change,what benefits can we expect from the virus.I would suggest that in 9 months time we will see a baby boom.Which should be a boost to the dairy industry.

A cap on inbound tourism to NZ...Say 1 million visitors max in a 12 month period. That will take a lot of pressure off infrustructure in that sector and the labour market.
Substantial increases in international airfares.
Thats just two.

[peat]

….. oops a bit harsh

[Pipi]

Hopefully a huge benefit to the environment. Apparently already seeing changes for the good, in water ways and air pollution. Be interesting to know if anyone is doing studies on all these things, esp things like how the higher atmosphere is changing with the reduction in aeroplanes up there.

[bottomfeeder]

I think this will be the shortest thread on this forum for a long time.

[jonu]

I think this will be the shortest thread on this forum for a long time.

Looking beyond the crap is a cure for all sorts of ills!

[Zaphod]

I think this will be the shortest thread on this forum for a long time.

LOL! You've made my day with that comment! First time I've laughed in ages.

[Toddy]

The depreciation of the New Zealand dollar should benefit the hard working New Zealand Farmers and Rural communities.

[jonu]

The depreciation of the New Zealand dollar should benefit the hard working New Zealand Farmers and Rural communities.

Yes Toddy. I just made the same point to doomer bull... on another thread.

[DazRaz]

The depreciation of the New Zealand dollar should benefit the hard working New Zealand Farmers and Rural communities.

The ones who don't work hard will not benefit?

[GR8DAY]

Lol nice one BF.......but all joking aside I too believe and hope our environment/planet will benefit from this "breather" that has been thrust upon us. Maybe, just maybe Mother Nature is retaliating in the only way she knows by sending out The Invisible Enemy (to use the Chumps term) in an effort to give the planet a much needed break from the commercial rape piliging and general environmental destruction that we humans must take ownership of. Sermon ends.

[ratkin]

Climate change
Pension problem will be solved for a while
Housing problem will be solved
Undertakers will be busy
Crematoriums will keep us warm in winter

[trackers]

- As suggested, good breather for the environment
- Good way to accumulate shares for people who apply even rudimentary TA to their investing
- Weak companies will die off, stronger companies will take their market share WHEN the economy returns - picking those ones up will be the go
- Strong companies will eventually benefit from cheap credit for expansion
- Eventual flight to safe non-cyclical companies like utilities
- Improved housing affordability (I would assume)

[Tomtom]

Petrols come down a shade which should pass some spending money back to family budgets and allow people to expand their search radius as they seek new employment (lower cost of commuting.) Also there is now the opportunity for infrastructure to catch up with economic growth as hiring is likely to be as easy as it gets over the next few months.

There is the matter of those of us that have been sitting on cash being able to deploy it. I've been too chicken so far. :)

[skid]

Climate change
Pension problem will be solved for a while
Housing problem will be solved
Undertakers will be busy
Crematoriums will keep us warm in winter

Catching up on Net Flick movies

[beetills]

It will prove to all those that think JA walks on water that a cuddle,a frown and a swish of the hair can't cure everthing.

[Scrunch]

It will prove to all those that think JA walks on water that a cuddle,a frown and a swish of the hair can't cure everthing.

There's probably going to be a lot more New Zealanders exploring our country. They are still going to want holidays but overseas is ruled out. Accommodation prices will be better than they have been.

[Scrunch]

Also just heard someone on the train talking about how they got a good parking spot for the first time ever.

[Champion]

I think some companies will change how they work, and will run more efficiently. It will give some companies to clean out inefficient process and really think about what are essentials. Simple things like how and when to run meetings, learn to plan ahead, focus and mitigate risks. Low performers will be the first one to go.

[Lola]

It will prove to all those that think JA walks on water that a cuddle,a frown and a swish of the hair can't cure everthing.

Yep she’s a flake
Her helpers are too.
She and Robertson fudged the truth on net debt in both their tears jerking retorec on Tuesday
We can expect more of the same .
The damage this lots policies will cause will surpass WW2
And leave NZ as a very very indebted nation.
Be kind....? Be fkd
Be real

[Scrunch]

At some stage, I'm guessing the world's superannuation funds are going to need to switch to net buyers of shares and sellers of bonds. This could bounce share prices very rapidly as it will mean super funds may end up trying to owning a higher percentage of corporates shares than before the selloff.

If the world's public jump back to balanced funds, that's going to super-charge this effect. Hopefully I'm right as I'm still long shares.

Lets assume a super fund had a portfolio of $200 has a target of 50/50 bonds to shares. For simplicity lets assume the bonds don't change in value and the shares fall in value by 40%. The portfolio is now $100 bonds & $60 shares. To rebalance to 50/50 you need to sell $20 of bonds buy $20 of shares so that $80 of both are held. As the value reduction in shares occurred through price, but the value increase occurs by buying shares, the net impact is super funds buying shares and increasing their ownership of companies.

So while super funds may be selling shares as some people shift to conservative/cash positions, at some point this flips and they start selling bonds and buying shares. Bulk selling of bonds would increase their yields. The chart below (which I'm assuming is reliable data) says that between the 5th of March and 16th March the AA ranked US bond yields have gone from a low of 1.68% to 2.70%. It could be the effect above that's doing this.

Then again it could be that no-one is trusting S&P etc ratings and are effectively down-grading them before any official rating change.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_corporate_aa_effective_yield

The question I'd love any current/past fund manager insights into is how far they can depart from their desired portfolio weightings and how long their mandates allow them to how this away from desired weighting for.

[bottomfeeder]

Seriously, you all sound like Matthius from the film The Omega Man. New world order, without using technology bull****.
All sectors of the community are going to be affected badly. Not many are going to come out of this unscathed.

[kiora]

Green Cross Health
telcos
Blis
Pre-prepared food box home deliveries
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/business/2020/03/19/1090212/staff-sought-as-covid-19-gives-boost-to-health-businesses

[steveb]

Seriously, you all sound like Matthius from the film The Omega Man. New world order, without using technology bull****.
All sectors of the community are going to be affected badly. Not many are going to come out of this unscathed.
Seriously did you read the title of this thread,if you have nothing positive to contribute keep it to yourself

[ratkin]

No more national obsession with rugby
Uncrowded walkways
Strangers not wanting to strike up conversation
People respecting your personal space
Entertainment value in watching everyone panic
News not as boring
Great to be able to see a truly historic event unfold in real time
Agraphobics no longer feel disadvantaged

[couta1]

HLG will celebrate it's 148 birthday next year, A2 will continue to smash it out of the ball park and PAZ the dark horse unlisted stock will come out of the dark onto the main board, only 3 stocks I own and I remain positive despite the pussycat virus. PS-Hoping the ski season will go ahead as normal.

[percy]

HLG will celebrate it's 148 birthday next year, A2 will continue to smash it out of the ball park and PAZ the dark horse unlisted stock will come out of the dark onto the main board, only 3 stocks I own and I remain positive despite the pussycat virus. PS-Hoping the ski season will go ahead as normal.

In a sea of toxic posting you remain a breath of fresh air.
You are thankfully not alone,as I received this last night.
"we believe this reality is being over-discounted into some share prices with many interesting companies trading down 50-70% or more. A bad year or two will definitely impair value, but some of the price declines – we believe – are unjustified and leave us enthused for our opportunity set."

[Balance]

Well, I bought back yesterday a share at 40% of what I sold out just under 2 months.

Reminds me of the GFC.

Of days like these are millionaires made.

[youngatheart]

Woke up this morning feeling incredibly positive. We have a brave PM close the border to allow the country to be able to manage and control this virus. We have enough food to feed us, cargo flights can still proceed so that we get the medicines we may need and we have a world class health system that everyone can access regardless of wealth.

I feel like I live in the luckiest country in the world :)

[steveb]

We could well be in for a rash of rights issues:-
AIA
AIR
SKC
SKT
Possibly rest home operators,and of course NTL as they are experts at rights issues and would not want to miss out!

[King1212]

Warren buffet started to buy stocks yesterday.....

[King1212]

Let talk about positive...because...if we stay positive...then everything will be positive

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/china-life-returning-normal-coronavirus-outbreak-slows-200317084803189.html

[GTM 3442]

Let talk about positive...because...if we stay positive...then everything will be positive

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/china-life-returning-normal-coronavirus-outbreak-slows-200317084803189.html

I hope nobody's test results are positive!

[Blue Skies]

Ski season's going ahead & just imagine, for the first time in decades there won't be massive queues for the lifts etc. plus plenty of car parking in the upper car parks.

[stoploss]

Ski season's going ahead & just imagine, for the first time in decades there won't be massive queues for the lifts etc. plus plenty of car parking in the upper car parks.
:t_up: See you there

[steveb]

If we go into lockdown crime will be a thing of the past.The police could also have a bumper season as they could pour more resources into cold cases.

[Lego_Man]

No internal travel...

[IAK]

In the future, people may have to be vaccinated (covid-19, measles, mumps etc) if they want to travel internationally.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120448104/will-coronavirus-spell-the-end-of-the-golden-age-of-long-haul-travel?cid=app-android

[Raz]

In the future, people may have to be vaccinated (covid-19, measles, mumps etc) if they want to travel internationally.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120448104/will-coronavirus-spell-the-end-of-the-golden-age-of-long-haul-travel?cid=app-android

hmmm can't see many positives in that article...

[Hoop]

We are experiencing Industrial Revolution 4. IR's are system disrupters
IR4 is being tempered by very powerful "old school" business groups.
Covid lockdowns could be the catalyst for another leap up in the continuing communication revolution and an overdue push forward for a Biotech revolution.
Expect new things (some appearing suddenly which we haven't thought of yet) to emerge to help us increase our standard of living and the make businesses much more efficient.

[Timesurfer]

We are experiencing Industrial Revolution 4. IR's are system disrupters
IR4 is being tempered by very powerful "old school" business groups.
Covid lockdowns could be the catalyst for another leap up in the continuing communication revolution and an overdue push forward for a Biotech revolution.
Expect new things (some appearing suddenly which we haven't thought of yet) to emerge to help us increase our standard of living and the make businesses much more efficient.

Biochips as your currency and ID will make perfect sense and be hard to argue against I suspect.

[Airw0lf]

Covid lockdowns could be the catalyst for another leap up in the continuing communication revolution and an overdue push forward for a Biotech revolution.
Expect new things (some appearing suddenly which we haven't thought of yet) to emerge to help us increase our standard of living and the make businesses much more efficient.

This is neither a positive or a negative but I've been thinking that hotdesking in businesses, which has been all the rage for some years now, along with shared workspaces to some extent are now going to have to be rethought. The best advice on social distancing in the workplace is to either work from home or for everyone to have well-spaced working areas that are for them alone. Otherwise, unless you are sanitising stations between workdays/shifts very expertly, you run the risk of spreading a contagion right through a workforce.

Working from home will definitely become more acceptable.

[samjaynz]

I wonder if a newfound interest (perhaps out of necessity) for fixing things and "making do" will be a positive consequence of this crisis.

For reference, I am one of those dreaded millennials, and in the past have definitely been guilty of buying something new when I could have fixed what I already had.

The webcam on my laptop broke recently (great when you're trying to video conference from home) and I'm out of warranty. In the past I probably would have gone and bought a new laptop and justified it because I "need it for work". However, I remembered I had an old webcam with a broken stand. With help from dad managed to get it mounted on a tripod (which I already had) instead and working perfectly.

[macduffy]

With help from dad managed to get it mounted on a tripod (which I already had) instead and working perfectly.

Yes, these baby boomers have their uses!

:)

[Cool Bear]

Working from home will be the norm.

All companies in the finance related services (insurance, mortgage advisors, accountancy, etc etc) will have staff working from home. Minimal office space for meetings (including meeting clients). Most meetings including client meetings will be on Skype or similar. Even factories will have their admin staff (accounting, HR, etc) working mainly from home with small shared office space at the site for rare occasions.

That will reduce travelling time, and people will have more time to be with family and friends, to learn or otherwise improve/enrich themselves.

Better for the environment with less emission, less traffic jams (again more productive use of time) - less need for fossil fuel, or for electricity. Reduce wear and tear of cars, lower import costs.

Free up need for office space. More for housing.

Home delivery services - food, groceries and e-commerce will flourish as people can be at home to receive parcels. Deliveries also easier as less traffic on road.

The future will be bright! :t_up:

[fungus pudding]

Yes, these baby boomers have their uses!

:)

I'm a Boomer. I would have biffed it.:p

[Bobdn]

Assuming this goes full 1929 and people get financially devastated, it will help future generations to remember to live within their means and not take on unimaginable debt. People have all but forgotten the lessons of our grandparents and the stories of extreme financial hardships not just during the depression but at many other times during our great nation's development.

It will also help future generations of Sharetraders to never make big one ways bets; to always keep 3-5 years of cash on hand for living expenses or 15 to 25 per cent of one's portfolio, whatever works; to have 5 to 10 per cent of their portfolio in gold.

[lissica]

It gives me a good excuse to go shopping....trying to use up all my airpoints at Mitre 10 in case Air NZ goes bankrupt or nationalised. So far have painted my fence, bought a BBQ, two vegepods with airpoint dollars.

[Lewylewylewy]

Not sure it's positive, but i wonder if this could cause stagflation. High demand, lower supply for goods, with a general recessionary effect going on, leads to flat or lower salaries.

Might be good for some manufacturers in the short term, but bad in the long term.

[Lewylewylewy]

I think if working from home becomes the norm, working hours will increase. I say this because most people think you're not working if you're working from home. Bad employers will use this to crack the whip, and employees generally will have a fear of this perception, especially if the culture is defined through a period of recession in which people are frightened of losing their jobs.

[Blue Horseshoe]

A big positive for the central banks is that they will be able to cover up one of the biggest frauds in history.

[Jerry]

A big positive for the central banks is that they will be able to cover up one of the biggest frauds in history.
About which of their many shortcomings are we talking, Blue?

[Barburr]

One place that has been extremely buoyant of late is right here at the sharetrader forums. Things are happening so fast that I can barely keep up with every relevant post. This is my first comment, but I've been visiting these boards for a long time, and I would like to take this opportunity to thank all of you for your contributions, whether positive, negative or somewhere in between. The collective wisdom and insight that has been so generously given on this site has helped me to form a greater realisation of the market "truth" and to inform my next moves. I think it puts everyone in this community (who is willing to open themselves to all advice) at the front of the curve and that has to be a positive thing. Once again, sincerely, thank you.
Oh, and apparently the warehouse has sold out of jigsaw puzzles...

[samjaynz]

Yes, these baby boomers have their uses!

:)

They sure do!

I am always in awe of how well they can fix things. I'm only good with computers unfortunately.

[Valuegrowth]

Value investors and value funds will look for quality businesses that they can buy at a significant discount to fair value globally. As value investor Shelby Davis observed: “You make most of your money in a bear market”

[aquaman]

Positive for jehovah's witness.So many people at home to visit

[steveb]

Road toll should come down,fire service should have fewer call outs,hence insurance companies should make more money as they are not going to pay out on corona virus related claims.Time to look at Tower,s share price?

[Blue Skies]

Learning new skills, possible future new business opportunities!

Yesterday the dog groomers cancelled our v shaggy dogs appointment & now closed possibly for months. What to do?
Had to race out & buy some $180 grooming shears & attempt to learn (via You Tube) how to be a dog groomer ha!
Hair dressing may be next! :laugh:

[blackcap]

A lot of people will learn how to cook and come out the other side that much better for it. A lot of people will find out that a home cooked meal can be just as nice as a bought one. :)

[Brain]

Positive for jehovah's witness.So many people at home to visit

And we cannot pretend that we are out

[blackcap]

And we cannot pretend that we are out

But luckily they will have to stay home as well :)

[BlackPeter]

A lot of people will learn how to cook and come out the other side that much better for it. A lot of people will find out that a home cooked meal can be just as nice as a bought one. :)

True. A lot of people will learn as well that they save a lot of money if one of the bread earners stays at home and cooks (potentially even home grown food) and looks after the kids. Children might learn how to clean and cook again (taught by the parents) - we might turn into a better society after that event.

We just need to change our accounting system. An at home dad or mum don't count for the stats.

[peat]

Thankfully that powers that be are not closing the markets (unless you're in Phillipines). !

[DarkHorse]

And we cannot pretend that we are out

We might end up like Bernard in Black Books...so desperate for distraction that we'd love to have them in^^ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6TeDM-wlZ4

[Cadalac123]

Wonder if people will get bored at home, including institutions that they start buying everything - lol

[Brain]

We might end up like Bernard in Black Books...so desperate for distraction that we'd love to have them in^^ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6TeDM-wlZ4

Thats a good way to deal with them - certainly worth a try. I did check to see if they were allowed to drink and yes they are.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.ft.com/content/92f21e80-4574-4cbe-94ca-62351200038b

Making a case for ‘Corona bonds’

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

Increasing realisation that we are a society that needs to look out for each other and work together not just a collection of self obsessed individuals.

Blueprint on ways to actually reduce environmental destruction for future generations. E.g. less air travel and unnecessary commuting emissions.

Refresher on what is most important in life - people, relationships, community, planet, health, freedom.

Hopefully a recognition we need to invest more in the health system and the fortitude to do so.

Learning experience to help us be prepared for future pandemics including biological warfare or terrorist acts.

Great prices to buy shares for Kiwisaver and investment funds.

I liked the first 4 in this list... the last two had me shuddering - is it that bad?

[Bjauck]

A lot of people will learn how to cook and come out the other side that much better for it. A lot of people will find out that a home cooked meal can be just as nice as a bought one. :) ..If you have Nigella in isolation with you it may be a positive aspect. That reminds me, I need to buy lots more oven-ready meals from the supermarket. Love the sound of the ping on the microwave.

[steveb]

perhaps we should start a new thread to swap recipes.(preferably ones that take a while to prepare)

[blackcap]

..If you have Nigella in isolation with you it may be a positive aspect. That reminds me, I need to buy lots more oven-ready meals from the supermarket. Love the sound of the ping on the microwave.

Be careful, those ready made oven meals, although convenient are full of salt. That aside, I agree with the Nigella being good company in isolation, although I probably prefer Langbein (homegrown) or Oliver.

[winner69]

At the NZX is remaining open for us all to do some gambling / punting

Bored stay at homers could head of to sharesies ...I’m told that’s quite good fun.

[Sideshow Bob]

I don't know if a positive effect, but would think there will start to be more "sharetrading" as the lockdown goes on and people have more time on their hands.....

[Sideshow Bob]

At the NZX is remaining open for us all to do some gambling / punting

Bore stay at homers could head of to sharesies ...I’m told that’s quite good fun.

Oh, snap!!!

[blackcap]

Keep calm and carry on people.
The oft quoted flu mortality rate is based off of deaths vs estimated number of cases (which are in the millions), not deaths vs actual confirmed cases. The COVID-19 mortality rate is based off deaths vs confirmed cases. This is not an apples to apples comparison. If estimated cases were used to calculate the COVID-19 death rate it would plummet (and it will be well under 1% when it’s all said and done). That’s not scary enough though.
According to the US CDC. tested and diagnosed flu cases in the US were 231,654. Deaths from the flu, about 22,000. This makes the mortality rate from the flu about 10%, using the apples to apples comparison of tested and diagnosed. The mortality rate among tested and diagnosed victims of COVID 19 is about 1.2%. This makes COVID 19 much less deadly than the seasonal flu. https://www.cdc.gov/flu

[Joshuatree]

Thats a good way to deal with them - certainly worth a try. I did check to see if they were allowed to drink and yes they are.

Mix a Jehovaa witnesser with some 90 % alcohol some 'allo vera (or hale mary) and we have the ultimate witless spirit cleanser.:D

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

Keep calm and carry on people.
The oft quoted flu mortality rate is based off of deaths vs estimated number of cases (which are in the millions), not deaths vs actual confirmed cases. The COVID-19 mortality rate is based off deaths vs confirmed cases. This is not an apples to apples comparison. If estimated cases were used to calculate the COVID-19 death rate it would plummet (and it will be well under 1% when it’s all said and done). That’s not scary enough though.
According to the US CDC. tested and diagnosed flu cases in the US were 231,654. Deaths from the flu, about 22,000. This makes the mortality rate from the flu about 10%, using the apples to apples comparison of tested and diagnosed. The mortality rate among tested and diagnosed victims of COVID 19 is about 1.2%. This makes COVID 19 much less deadly than the seasonal flu. https://www.cdc.gov/flu
Your posts are delusional and misleading, blackcap.

[blackcap]

Your posts are delusional and misleading, blackcap.

That is but your opinion. Look at the figures. I think you are delusional. There that was easy wasn't it. We both have opinions which in a free country we are allowed to share and that is what makes a free country so great. Hope you keep well during the 4 weeks :) cheers.

[jonu]

Your posts are delusional and misleading, blackcap.

It would be a little more helpful if you pointed out his supposed errors. Does not reflect well upon you IMHO.

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

It would be a little more helpful if you pointed out his supposed errors. Does not reflect well upon you IMHO.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

Uses the exact same source as blackcap (though why anyone would want to rely on ANYTHING from the US medical system, I don't know). Here's some example https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-vs-the-flu-its-just-like-other-viruses-and-we-should-go-about-our-normal-business-right-wrong-heres-why-2020-03-09
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-22/covid-19-how-deadly-and-contagious-is-coronavirus/12068106
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-myths.html
There are literally hundreds of sources supporting the following key points:
- The virus has an infection (reproduction) rate in the region of 2 to 3 whereas the seasonal flu has in the region of 1.3. The exponential impact of infection rates is the biggest differentiating factor!
- This virus is significantly more likely to kill a patient (roughly ten times according to Fauci and a number of articles I've read with some saying as much as 20 times more).
- Unlike flu there is no herd immunity to combat the spread of the coronavirus.
- Incubation (hidden infection) period is ~5 days for coronavirus, versus ~2 for the flu.
- It may take many months or years to develop a vaccine.

[Meister]

Unfortunately Independent Observer is right. This is meant to be the positive thread but come on, don't downplay the seriousness of this pandemic. This clearly isn't just the flu. Have you not seen what Italy is going through right now?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INmEciVm-6Q
Their hospitals are overflowing with cases. Once they run out of ICUs and respirators then the mortality rate goes way up as they just can't help everyone. it is a disaster out there, and highlights the importance of keeping things under control. Blackcap is right to say don't panic, and carry on, but trying to downplay the seriousness of it is not the right way to think about this. The lockdown (or other means of flattening the curve) is essential and a message that "this is no big deal, its not even as bad as the flu" is highly counterproductive. We don't see countries go into lockdown and health systems get totally overrun each year because of the flu.

[jonu]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

Uses the exact same source as blackcap (though why anyone would want to rely on ANYTHING from the US medical system, I don't know). Here's some example https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-vs-the-flu-its-just-like-other-viruses-and-we-should-go-about-our-normal-business-right-wrong-heres-why-2020-03-09
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-22/covid-19-how-deadly-and-contagious-is-coronavirus/12068106
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-myths.html
There are literally hundreds of sources supporting the following key points:
- The virus has an infection (reproduction) rate in the region of 2 to 3 whereas the seasonal flu has in the region of 1.3. The exponential impact of infection rates is the biggest differentiating factor!
- This virus is significantly more likely to kill a patient (roughly ten times according to Fauci and a number of articles I've read with some saying as much as 20 times more).
- Unlike flu there is no herd immunity to combat the spread of the coronavirus.
- Incubation (hidden infection) period is ~5 days for coronavirus, versus ~2 for the flu.
- It may take many months or years to develop a vaccine.

Most of your points are debateable, as there is not enough reliable data to verify them. The death rate in particular. Flu mutates all the time, so herd immunity is only of limited help. The vast majority of deaths are ASSOCIATED with Covid-19 and are related to other health issues.

Italy's figures have spooked everyone, but they are recording a death of anyone who has Covid-19, whether that was the main cause of death or not. Other countries aren't. It is also likely that Italy has far more infections than the official figures, which would significantly drop the death rate.


Apologies if getting off topic

[IAK]

Well, many fish and shellfish stocks will get a breather, especially in those areas where there is a lot iof recreational fishing and harvesting pressure

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

Unfortunately Independent Observer is right. This is meant to be the positive thread but come on, don't downplay the seriousness of this pandemic. This clearly isn't just the flu. Have you not seen what Italy is going through right now?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INmEciVm-6Q
Their hospitals are overflowing with cases. Once they run out of ICUs and respirators then the mortality rate goes way up as they just can't help everyone. it is a disaster out there, and highlights the importance of keeping things under control. Blackcap is right to say don't panic, and carry on, but trying to downplay the seriousness of it is not the right way to think about this. The lockdown (or other means of flattening the curve) is essential and a message that "this is no big deal, its not even as bad as the flu" is highly counterproductive. We don't see countries go into lockdown and health systems get totally overrun each year because of the flu.

Exactly. It is pretty clear that almost no one on this forum spouting the rhetoric that downplays this pandemic have ever worked on the frontline of the health system. Some of you are about to get a rather big shock but unfortunately I can only see you blaming someone else (e.g. the government) when we should be taking a hard look at ourselves and the society/community we have created.

[peat]

the roads are empty, its kinda spooky but kinda nice too.
not good for Z shares but nice for a walk.

[Valuegrowth]

New enemy is corona. New weapons against corona and economy are surgical masks, medical devices, drugs, liquidity, loans and grants. One positive thing is whole world came together for the common cause and to fight with corona.

Currently Infected Patients: 336,362
In Mild Condition:321,562 (96%)
Serious or Critical: 14,800 (4%)
Recovered-Discharged: 114,740 (84%)

Thanks gods nearly 96% are in mild conditions. Currently, there are 14,800 serious patients. Their life is in danger. Very small quantity when compare with people who die from other diseases and accidents on yearly basis in each country. Only thing each country can do is take action to bring down death rates and prevent it from spreading. Some countries are managing well. Some countries don’t have good health facilities like western countries. To my surprise their death rate is still very low. Some countries took very easy at the beginning specially those who close to China geographically. Overall at least one will die in each country and some countries will escape from any deaths. Just like other virus corona also will disappear by the end of its cycle. How about if we have to live with it just likes other diseases?

In the midst of the crisis, misinformation on Corona has been spreading virally. Now China is opening businesses. Europe eventually should follow. When that happens, demand will go up. I am waiting for some studies on Corona and some findings from scientists.

[Scrunch]

SC - I respect that you want to contribute but this thread is not the one to do it on. There's a lot of nervous investors out there that would like a positive thread and this is their space, and those that want to assist by identifying POSITIVE effects.

[Bjauck]

the roads are empty, its kinda spooky but kinda nice too.
not good for Z shares but nice for a walk. I felt like Bruno Lawrence in The Quiet Earth.

[Snoopy]

How about we think positive for a change,what benefits can we expect from the virus.


An opportunity to grow that big bushy beard you always promised yourself. More effective than a face mask, with no supply problems.

SNOOPY

[Balance]

Remember this from the world's greatest living investor - the man who has lived and managed the biggest investment portfolio through numerous crisis, each bigger than the other.

His investment portfolio not only survived but thrived post each of the crisis.

This is what Warren Buffett said :

"Our goal is more modest :

We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy

and

to be greedy only when others are fearful."

[kiora]

Less drug dealing?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/120612152/coronavirus-auckland-man-facing-charges-after-being-pulled-over-twice-in-two-days

[Cyclical]

Less drug dealing?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/120612152/coronavirus-auckland-man-facing-charges-after-being-pulled-over-twice-in-two-days

Yeah, that's a good one, those guys will be seriously out of the pocket and will be struggling to get much help under the business/self employed banner lol.

[kiora]

Hand sanitizes,Gull
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/better-business/120614438/fonterra-joins-coronavirus-fight-with-250000-litres-of-ethanol-for-sanitiser

[Joshuatree]

Truckies will be loving the empty roads and delivering ahead of time, efficiency plus." Ten Four"

[Timesurfer]

Freedom campers are being thinned out.

The roads were pretty quiet when I shot to CHCH and back the day before lock down, but there were quite a few camper vans on the road and road sides - nowhere to go as the majority of campgrounds and freedom camping sites shutting down, and nothing to do as the tourist opperators are all shut down. Hell of a time to be on holiday. But then those arriving in the past couple of weeks and ignoring the self isolation request didn't help anyone.

Maybe the Government will sort their shirt out and regulate the situation properly going forward.

[Timesurfer]

The Commonwealth might end up with young and relevant King and Queen if Chuckles gave the virus to his mommy and they both pop their clogs.
That should keep people employed reprinting our money and the like.

[steveb]

It's going to keep the US legal system in the black for many years to come.Think of all the law suits that are going to be filed,they are going to have a field day with the blame game

[BlackPeter]

Freedom campers are being thinned out.

The roads were pretty quiet when I shot to CHCH and back the day before lock down, but there were quite a few camper vans on the road and road sides - nowhere to go as the majority of campgrounds and freedom camping sites shutting down, and nothing to do as the tourist opperators are all shut down. Hell of a time to be on holiday. But then those arriving in the past couple of weeks and ignoring the self isolation request didn't help anyone.

Maybe the Government will sort their shirt out and regulate the situation properly going forward.

Here would be an outstanding opportunity to employ these people as urgently needed fruit pickers in our labor deprived horticulture industry instead of complaining about the problem of freedom campers. Win-win, would be just common sense.

[steveb]

they encouraged visitors and backpackers last year to help harvest kiwifruit.Gave them temporary work permits,so yes BlackPeter thats a great idea

[Tomtom]

It's going to keep the US legal system in the black for many years to come.Think of all the law suits that are going to be filed,they are going to have a field day with the blame game The US government are having thousands of 'thoughts and prayers' domestically manufactured as we speak.

It is just completely unprecedented that the US would face the same global pandemic European countries where facing weeks prior. That's why it has caught us so unprepared.

[Blue Skies]

Listening carefully to Grant Robertson yesterday, it looks very much like he wants businesses to keep their employees through this crisis by providing Employers with the money, the 80% wage subsidy, (even if some employees take a temp wage cut as I know some would prefer to losing their jobs altogether ) rather than providing that money to Work & Income to subsidise more people on the dole.

Reason being, he wants Employers & Employees to keep that relationship going through this, so when it's over, we can come out of it faster.

That looks well thought out policy which benefits both Employers & Employees, i.e. business.

[blackcap]

Another positive aspect of this whole virus is that the climate seems to have stopped changing.

[ynot]

Listening carefully to Grant Robertson yesterday, it looks very much like he wants businesses to keep their employees through this crisis by providing Employers with the money, the 80% wage subsidy, (even if some employees take a temp wage cut as I know some would prefer to losing their jobs altogether ) rather than providing that money to Work & Income to subsidise more people on the dole.

Reason being, he wants Employers & Employees to keep that relationship going through this, so when it's over, we can come out of it faster.

That looks well thought out policy which benefits both Employers & Employees, i.e. business.
And how will business pay their rent with no income. I don't see govt stumping up but then how interested is this govt in the prosperity of business.

[fungus pudding]

And how will business pay their rent with no income. I don't see govt stumping up but then how interested is this govt in the prosperity of business.

They aren't, but they are interested in their survival.

[iceman]

Another positive aspect of this whole virus is that the climate seems to have stopped changing.

**** now we have to be really concerned if this is true !!! Luckily Cindy is encouraging use of coal power so we should go back to normal quickly :-)

[steveb]

Councils are making a killing.They are still charging businesses rates on buildings that have been forced to close.Sent most of their staff home,and are claiming the govt wage subsidy.

[Timesurfer]

Another positive aspect of this whole virus is that the climate seems to have stopped changing.

That is because Greta got the virus and had to self isolate.

[Mr Slothbear]

Some big positives.

never been better going for a walk, almost no air pollution (less cars on the road), quiet and peaceful just the beautiful birdsong to listen to, hardly have to even look if you cross the road, really really nice.

[Scrunch]

Some big positives.

never been better going for a walk, almost no air pollution (less cars on the road), quiet and peaceful just the beautiful birdsong to listen to, hardly have to even look if you cross the road, really really nice.

Its also a great time to teach kids to ride bikes - its a lot safer than usual if they need to be on the road.

[kiora]

New industries & collaboration with 3 D printing
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120608686/coronavirus-the-volunteer-army-using-kiwi-ingenuity-to-3d-print-face-shields-for-medical-workers

[blackcap]

It's potentially just as bad as the flu...

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?query=featured_secondary

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

[fish]

The reality is that we do not know the case fatality of influenza or covid-19.The good news as you point out is that they have reported on a mortality rate of confirmed cases at 1.4% whilst we do not know the number of asymptomatic plus mildly symptomatic cases.I fully agree this is likely to be many times the reported rate and it may turn out more akin to many influenza strains.
Bad news is more could die as we have no immunity or vaccines.
Once we have serology testing it should easily be possible to calculate the mortality rate.The Netherlands has started serology testing so in a few months we should have a better idea

[blackcap]

The reality is that we do not know the case fatality of influenza or covid-19.The good news as you point out is that they have reported on a mortality rate of confirmed cases at 1.4% whilst we do not know the number of asymptomatic plus mildly symptomatic cases.I fully agree this is likely to be many times the reported rate and it may turn out more akin to many influenza strains.
Bad news is more could die as we have no immunity or vaccines.
Once we have serology testing it should easily be possible to calculate the mortality rate.The Netherlands has started serology testing so in a few months we should have a better idea

Thanks fish, that makes sense. Hindsight is of course a wonderful thing.

[davflaws]

Perhaps this pandemic will further spur the move towards distributed manufacturing and an information/internet economy.

[IAK]

Should be a lot more rentals available with the AirBnB apocalypse. This from the UK....

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/airbnb-coronavirus-london

[fungus pudding]

Should be a lot more rentals available with the AirBnB apocalypse. This from the UK....
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/airbnb-coronavirus-london


https://www.wired.co.uk/article/airbnb-coronavirus-london
Live url - works better.

[IAK]

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/airbnb-coronavirus-london
Live url - works better.
Thanks Fungus, posted via mobile phone.

[Blue Skies]

There's a great post by Jacinda Adern showing a factory in Wanganui now churning out 80,000 surgical masks per day, 7 days a week.
Once we have a few million for NZ, should be able to start exporting them.

[IAK]

Still got to think just how lucky we are to be in New Zealand...
With the lockdown we are looking at a softer landing on our Healthcare resources ... In New Zealand we have 550 Ventalitors... hopefully more are arriving....As of yesterday Christchurch Hospital still has no corona patients!... All going to plan in 10 days to 2 weeks we will see peak cases on the daily... last 3 days have seen declines in daily numbers of infections...
:cool:
.^sc

New Device May Allow Up To 4 People To Share 1 Ventilator. Can be produded with a 3-D printer.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/vesper-ventilator-3d-printer_n_5e7ce39bc5b6cb08a929e7eb

[Tomtom]

With the lockdown we are looking at a softer landing on our Healthcare resources... Lockdowns are a short term stopgap solution unfortunately and, as Italy is showing, may not even be effective. South Korea model is the only way forwards that isn't economically crippling. We'll just have to scale our testing capability before the tidal wave hits us.

[see weed]

I will say the road toll and criminal acts will come down in the next few weeks.:t_up:

[BlackPeter]

I will say the road toll and criminal acts will come down in the next few weeks.:t_up:

Road toll - yes.

Criminal acts - not sure.

some new criminal acts around people can offend against (like breaking the lock down conditions) - and they do.
plenty more unemployed people with lots of time on their hands ...
a paradise for hackers ... lots of people accessing interesting data (company networks) from hardly secured (home) networks ...
family violence started already to soar ... victims of abusers are now 24/7 locked up with them.


I give you, though that the character of criminal offences is likely to change. We will see, whether it is an improvement.

[steveb]

As the $NZ is dropping we should be looking to export more products and hopefully attract overseas companies to set up here,creating new jobs is going to be vital

[klid]

I wonder if someone could calculate the number of lives that will be saved due to air pollution decreasing.

[fungus pudding]

I wonder if someone could calculate the number of lives that will be saved due to air pollution decreasing.
I doubt it. However there will be a few wild guesses.

[Joshuatree]

Did you see this guys?
NASA images: China's air pollution decreased amid ...www.cnbc.com (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=2ahUKEwjJzdeS4MPoAhWc4zgGHbLwDuwQFjABegQIAxAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2020%2F03%2F02%2F nasa-images-chinas-air-pollution-decreased-amid-coronavirus-measures.html&usg=AOvVaw34ik5DnbH_dNXKByoSp_w-) › 2020/03/02 › nasa-images-chinas-air-pollution-decr...

[kiora]

New ways do do things faster,more accurately,cheaper
Spinnaker
Volpara
Ubiquitome

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/better-business/120669574/kiwi-technology-firms-are-at-the-frontline-in-the-global-battle-against-the-coronavirus

[kiora]

Flexible transport apps for essential services
https://ridewithvia.com/news/

[mp52]

Accelerated increase in capability of virology and health management. In a similar way that HIV research now is directly contributing to viable cancer treatments we can probably expect that global focused research and prioritisation of a vaccine for this illness will have spin-off benefits in the application of viral genetics for cure and treatment of a range of other existing illnesses.

[Blue Skies]

Some cause for optimism the world may look a different place by July or August this year.
There's an exciting race on to find a stop gap immunological treatment for CV19 which may be available by June/July rather than having to wait for a vaccine.

Basically taking blood from people who easily recovered from CV19 & separating out the specific antibodies which gave them such a strong immunity, that they only suffered v mild symptoms.
Then making billions of synthetic copies of the protein to give to others to provide around 3 months immunity.
The architecture to do this already in place (blood banks, testing, capability etc) & much quicker & more straightforward than developing & testing a safe medication or vaccine.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/26/822003826/how-monoclonal-antibodies-might-prove-useful-against-the-coronavirus

[kiora]

WOF anyone?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/120677393/new-kiwi-company-offers-wof-solution-for-essential-workers

[whatsup]

IMHO, The most positive effect to come out of the covid-19 situation is that with Winstone in hibernation/lock down we do not have to listen to him droning on and on and on every time that an interviewer tries to extract facts out of him .

[Blue Skies]

Great innovation story, effective PPE face shields being mass produced & supplied by South Auckland man & other 3D hobbyists across NZ.

1Kg of 3D filament can produce hundreds of face shield brackets at a cost of 20c each.
Just add an A4 sheet of clear plastic film from somewhere like Warehouse stationary & you have an effective face shield.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120738815/coronavirus-southauckland-rocket-man-builds-face-shields-for-20-cents-each

[Mr Slothbear]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120765299/canterbury-mass-rapid-transit-bus-planning-speeds-up-to-take-advantage-of-stimulus-spending

WOW!


have lived in Christchurch a long time and have never really heard talk of mass rapid transport. Very exciting if it comes to fruition.

looks like coronavirus is the best thing that could possibly happen for the environment

[jonu]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120765299/canterbury-mass-rapid-transit-bus-planning-speeds-up-to-take-advantage-of-stimulus-spending

WOW!


have lived in Christchurch a long time and have never really heard talk of mass rapid transport. Very exciting if it comes to fruition.

looks like coronavirus is the best thing that could possibly happen for the environment

Ask Auckland how the Light Rail is coming along! From memory it should be nearing the airport by now. Talk is cheap!

[fungus pudding]

Ask Auckland how the Light Rail is coming along! From memory it should be nearing the airport by now. Talk is cheap!

What's the rush!

[Blue Skies]

ACC claims must be way down with no rugby & other sports injuries, and risky buffoon behaviour severely reduced.
Mind you ACC might be facing reduced income.

[Tomtom]

Surely the most substantial public works project available to government is going to be KiwiBuild?

[steveb]

Surely the most substantial public works project available to government is going to be KiwiBuild?

I would expect the govt to put a clause in the building of said houses,that locally produced timber glass and fittings should be used.Perhaps we should all get stuck into some Metro Glass shares!

[clip]

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/07/business/grocery-stores-robots-automation/index.html

I'm not sure if index fund threads are kept somewhere else on the forum, but potentially good news for the Global Robotics and Automation Fund later in the year (BOT), a few excerpts from the article:

"Brain Corp., which supplies autonomous floor-scrubbing robots to grocers, said it saw a 13% jump in the usage of its robots at stores in March compared to a year ago. Grocers staying open during the crisis have shortened their hours to allow for deep cleaning overnight.

Walmart (WMT), the country's largest retailer and private employer, will have Brain Corp's self-driving robots in 1,860 of its more than 4,700 US stores by the end of the year. It will also have robots that scan shelf inventory at 1,000 stores and bots at 1,700 stores that automatically scan boxes as they come off delivery trucks and sort them by department onto conveyer belts by the end of the year."

"At a handful of Schnucks Markets stores in the Midwest, Tally, an autonomous robot, scans shelves to alert employees when products are out of stock or labeled incorrectly, said Brad Bogolea, CEO of Simbe Robotics, which developed the robot.
"This massive surge in demand was a major shock to most retailers' inventory counts," said Bogolea. The robot has been helping workers restock items on shelves by giving them real-time data on which items are out, he said."

[Blue Skies]

US equities surge on news Bernie Sanders dropped out of Democratic race leaving Joe Biden the presumptive nominee.

Has to be v helpful to NZ exporters & our economy to have Bernie's anti free trade, protectionist policies out of the way.

[sb9]

US equities surge on news Bernie Sanders dropped out of Democratic race leaving Joe Biden the presumptive nominee.

Has to be v helpful to NZ exporters & our economy to have Bernie's anti free trade, protectionist policies out of the way.

Looks like another decent day on course for NZX with DOW now up more than 700 points..would be nice finish for the upcoming long weekend.

[BlackPeter]

US equities surge on news Bernie Sanders dropped out of Democratic race leaving Joe Biden the presumptive nominee.

Has to be v helpful to NZ exporters & our economy to have Bernie's anti free trade, protectionist policies out of the way.

Problem is, we still have Trumps anti free trade protectionist policies in the way :p;

[steveb]

but surely they would not vote trump in for another 4 years!

[blackcap]

but surely they would not vote trump in for another 4 years!

I think they will. His approval is increasing (as it does during these crisis) and he is currently the market favourite to be elected again. Biden is not a credible or candidate that inspires. That said I think someone else is going to take Biden's place at the convention.

[dobby41]

I think they will. His approval is increasing (as it does during these crisis) and he is currently the market favourite to be elected again. Biden is not a credible or candidate that inspires. That said I think someone else is going to take Biden's place at the convention.

Is there someone else to take Biden's place? I thought he was IT now that Bernie has stood aside?

[clip]

I think they will. His approval is increasing (as it does during these crisis) and he is currently the market favourite to be elected again. Biden is not a credible or candidate that inspires. That said I think someone else is going to take Biden's place at the convention.

I do too, as bad as trump is, there's really nobody more 'votable' than him, especially not Biden. Can you imagine the young and the ethnic turning out in droves to vote for an old, rich, sometimes-seemingly-senile, white man? Doubt it.

[BlackPeter]

but surely they would not vote trump in for another 4 years!

Probably not the right discussion for this thread - however a bit of reality can never hurt.

Coronavirus makes not just sick but as well stupid. Americans well might re-elect Trump. His approval ratings are close to their peak - currently around 44.6%. His disapproval rating just 50% ... and given the skewed US election system this would be enough to get him hold on power.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

[Bobdn]

The overreaction of government's around the world and the resultant steep decline in markets have enabled me to deploy cash that I had built up over the last year back into the market. That's positive for me. Now, it could be that the worst depression the world has ever seen comes out of this and I lose all my money, only time will tell. If that happens, that will be a negative and I'll need to post it on the other thread.

Australia has on average 1500 to 3000 influenza deaths each year. Covid has taken 50 souls so far.

New Zealand has on average 400- 500 influenza deaths each year. Covid has taken the life of one person so far.

[dobby41]

The overreaction of government's around the world and the resultant steep decline in markets have enabled me to deploy cash that I had built up over the last year back into the market. That's positive for me. Now, it could be that the worst depression the world has ever seen comes out of this and I lose all my money, only time will tell. If that happens, that will be a negative and I'll need to post it on the other thread.

Australia has on average 1500 to 3000 influenza deaths each year. Covid has taken 50 souls so far.

New Zealand has on average 400- 500 influenza deaths each year. Covid has taken the life of one person so far.

Had to happen again - the old Flu is worse rational.
I said ages ago that if the lockdown is successful we will have few deaths and people will use that as justification for the idea that it was to harsh.

[Bobdn]

Just trying to be positive, not trying to trigger you or others. I'm just happy that the covid has caused 500x less deaths than the flu in NZ. This is the positive thread.

[Chinesekiwi]

Had to happen again - the old Flu is worse rational.
I said ages ago that if the lockdown is successful we will have few deaths and people will use that as justification for the idea that it was to harsh.


Yeah let's not go down that track - it's chalk and cheese.

Let's stick with the science on this one.

[Arthur]

It has been a fantastic time for rational investors to pick up quality companies at good prices.

[Bobdn]

Yeah let's not go down that track - it's chalk and cheese.

Let's stick with the science on this one.

Comparing the mortality rates of one viral infection with another viral infection is a bit nutty I agree but I put my crazy comment down to the lockdown and long lines at the supermarket and not being able to find flour to bake my cheese scones.

Although I do note that the WHO says the covid and flu have some similarities! I wonder if "apples and oranges" rather than chalk and cheese would have been a more apt phrase. Apples and organges are both fruit after all and edible.

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-similarities-and-differences-covid-19-and-influenza

[bottomfeeder]

What? This thread still going. Amazing, the ill effects more than cancel out any perceived benefits. I think anyone commenting on this thread has bad taste and no empathy for those that have taken such a large hit and will still be suffering for some time to come. Come on lets hear it, no doubt the ignore button will be pressed a number of times now.

[davflaws]

Can you imagine the young and the ethnic turning out in droves to vote for an old, rich, sometimes-seemingly-senile, white man?

They did in South Carolina

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

Bobdn you've been triggering me for at least two weeks now! I'd rather you stay away from this thread too.

bottomfeeder - there are some positives - more time with the family for one. Also creates opportunity for many to reflect on where their future was headed; financially or otherwise. No one is suggesting there aren't significant adverse facts but to suggest that a thread discussing some positives is in bad taste is absurd IMO. You should be having a go at those who are downplaying the health risk that this forum has been awash with - don't have to look far for that (hint look at the post immediately before yours)...

[clip]

They did in South Carolina

I suppose trump meets all of my own criteria I was applying to Biden as well, but people still vote for him

[Bobdn]

I've come to appreciate our wonderful public health system more as a result of this crisis. With its 10,034 bed capacity (including 176 in ICU), our Health system has been able to handle the covid patients without the need to build urgent new facilities like other countries have had to e.g. Wuhan, China. Currently 18 people are in NZ hospitals with the covid as of today.

It's great to know that so far, and I appreciate we haven't come to the other side of this, we have the infrastructure in place to deal with the crisis.

[Zaphod]

What? This thread still going. Amazing, the ill effects more than cancel out any perceived benefits. I think anyone commenting on this thread has bad taste and no empathy for those that have taken such a large hit and will still be suffering for some time to come. Come on lets hear it, no doubt the ignore button will be pressed a number of times now.

There's a certain irony when someone using the handle bottomfeeder is the one lecturing everyone on this topic. Made me smile :)

[allfromacell]

I've come to appreciate our wonderful public health system more as a result of this crisis. With its 10,034 bed capacity (including 176 in ICU), our Health system has been able to handle the covid patients without the need to build urgent new facilities like other countries have had to e.g. Wuhan, China. Currently 18 people are in NZ hospitals with the covid as of today.

It's great to know that so far, and I appreciate we haven't come to the other side of this, we have the infrastructure in place to deal with the crisis.

Honestly what's going on in Italy could have so easily been us, with our connection to China and massive inflow of tourists it's a wonder we didn't get any early clusters. We were fortunate enough to learn from Europe's disaster and put in place strict measures after seeing what occurred there. Our bed capacity to population is lacking, it's been underfunded for years we just got lucky.

[heisenberg]

Honestly what's going on in Italy could have so easily been us, with our connection to China and massive inflow of tourists it's a wonder we didn't get any early clusters. We were fortunate enough to learn from Europe's disaster and put in place strict measures after seeing what occurred there. Our bed capacity to population is lacking, it's been underfunded for years we just got lucky.

I agree we have been fortunate to learn from other country’s experiences. Just because our death rate is only 1/1200 does not mean the lockdown is too harsh. This is not the flu and we cannot compare it to the flu on a global level.

Let me present some figures from Kiwi epidemiologist Nick Wilson. Assuming undetected spread and no measures to stop the virus, he has estimated that 65% of the NZ population would get symptomatic illness. 146,000 would be hospital admission. 36,600 would need intensive care and 27,600 would die. Those deaths are also just from the virus alone, let alone all those other life threatening emergencies which may not get the appropriate care they need as the hospitals would be packed. Four weeks of lockdown to prevent that? I’d take it every time. Buying cheap shares is just a bonus.

[Airw0lf]

I agree we have been fortunate to learn from other country’s experiences. Just because our death rate is only 1/1200 does not mean the lockdown is too harsh. This is not the flu and we cannot compare it to the flu on a global level.

Let me present some figures from Kiwi epidemiologist Nick Wilson. Assuming undetected spread and no measures to stop the virus, he has estimated that 65% of the NZ population would get symptomatic illness. 146,000 would be hospital admission. 36,600 would need intensive care and 27,600 would die. Those deaths are also just from the virus alone, let alone all those other life threatening emergencies which may not get the appropriate care they need as the hospitals would be packed. Four weeks of lockdown to prevent that? I’d take it every time. Buying cheap shares is just a bonus.

Yeah, fingers crossed we emerge from lockdown having very few hospitalisations and deaths. At that point, a whole bunch of idiotic armchair critics will probably use this as "proof" that the lockdown was not necessary and a waste of time.

[Bobdn]

We have a lot to be grateful for, no question. 27,600 deaths is an unfathomable number and quite frankly would have changed our country for ever. The number represents around 5800 deaths per million and would put us ahead of Spain with 330 deaths per million currently and Sweden, which is doing a lot less mitigation, at 79 deaths per million. Of course these numbers will continue to go up, I appreciate it's early days in Europe.

Its the United States that is most concerning to me at the moment. Projected deaths, without mitigation, are 2.2 million (link attached). From what I can glean from various articles the United States Government was slow to respond to the virus threat. A 2.2 million death toll is almost unimaginable and to be honest if it reaches that sort of level I can't imagine the country will ever be able to return to what was considered normal.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-fatality-rate-white-house.html

[Airw0lf]

We have a lot to be grateful for, no question. 27,600 deaths is an unfathomable number and quite frankly would have changed our country for ever. The number represents around 5800 deaths per million and would put us ahead of Spain with 330 deaths per million currently and Sweden, which is doing a lot less mitigation, at 79 deaths per million. Of course these numbers will continue to go up, I appreciate it's early days in Europe.

Its the United States that is most concerning to me at the moment. Projected deaths, without mitigation, are 2.2 million (link attached). From what I can glean from various articles the United States Government was slow to respond to the virus threat. A 2.2 million death toll is almost unimaginable and to be honest if it reaches that sort of level I can't imagine the country will ever be able to return to what was considered normal.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-fatality-rate-white-house.html

Thankfully the USA will probably get away with much less deaths than 2.2 million, but it is still going to be a colossal mess. This article is a good summary of how it's been mismanaged: https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/120962702/how-americas-coronavirus-response-went-so-wrong

[kiora]

Tend
A new virtual consultation for doctors consultation
A good idea to protect front line health care workers
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120772250/kiwi-power-couple-turn-heartbreak-into-healthcare-app-that-could-aid-coronavirus-fight

[Blue Skies]

Tend
A new virtual consultation for doctors consultation
A good idea to protect front line health care workers
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120772250/kiwi-power-couple-turn-heartbreak-into-healthcare-app-that-could-aid-coronavirus-fight


Need to balance the benefits versus the very real risk or downside of this sort of app for patients in that in some countries private health insurance companies are already starting to demand access to all this personal data.
People may later find all sorts of illnesses which aren't related to something they once had in the distant past, aren't covered because the lawyered up insurance companies pick over this data looking for possible exclusions.
Obviously good for insurance companies but not so good for individuals.
Affordable insurance premiums rely on a broad spread of risk across the widest numbers of people possible, otherwise premiums and all the exclusions become impossible.

[bottomfeeder]

There's a certain irony when someone using the handle bottomfeeder is the one lecturing everyone on this topic. Made me smile :)
Didnt mean to lecture, just that already I have seen so much economic destruction, that is going to take years, for some people to recover, if they ever will. I know a young woman who worked so hard and spent so much money becoming a commercial pilot. She worked hard at secondary airlines, and finally started at Air New Zealand, domestic. It was starting to look as if it was all going to pay off. Now out of work, each day passing, no doubt will mean her skills will slowly subside, and if Air NZ ever recovers enough in the next 5 years, she will no doubt require full retraining. I could relate many such stories and I hardly know anyone. More deaths in NZ. When the government realises how much this has cost them, be prepared for, superannuation cuts and surcharges, less benefits, working for families cuts, GST increases to 20%, health system cuts and a whole lot more. That is where the depression will really hit.
You may think I am being negative, but it is just realism. If I dont buy shares as they reach an all time low, no doubt there will be many others to take my place.

[Bobdn]

You make some good points for sure. However even if we see something akin to the depression with a generation of people left with no income and no real hope, and a catastrophic decline in the health and well being of millions of New Zealanders and decreased life spans and increased mortality rates as a result of the economic collapse, even with that I think it could still be fairly argued that it would be worth it if it saves one life.

Not trying to be a Pollyanna and brightside what is a difficult situation, just trying to stay positive.

[steveb]

Didnt mean to lecture, just that already I have seen so much economic destruction, that is going to take years, for some people to recover, if they ever will. I know a young woman who worked so hard and spent so much money becoming a commercial pilot. She worked hard at secondary airlines, and finally started at Air New Zealand, domestic. It was starting to look as if it was all going to pay off. Now out of work, each day passing, no doubt will mean her skills will slowly subside, and if Air NZ ever recovers enough in the next 5 years, she will no doubt require full retraining. I could relate many such stories and I hardly know anyone. More deaths in NZ. When the government realises how much this has cost them, be prepared for, superannuation cuts and surcharges, less benefits, working for families cuts, GST increases to 20%, health system cuts and a whole lot more. That is where the depression will really hit.
You may think I am being negative, but it is just realism. If I dont buy shares as they reach an all time low, no doubt there will be many others to take my place.
Bottomfeeder,I started this thread so that people could try and think of positive's that might come from this pandemic and pass them on.Your comments however seem to border on the alarmist.
I take it due to the lockdown you are unable to walk around wearing your sandwich board,with the "end is nigh repent now" written on both sides.

[Bobdn]

Quite right Steve! There's lot of things to be positive about and negative thoughts can be contagious! (pun intended:).

For me this crisis has given more time to brush up on events in NZ's history like the impact of the Great Depression on our country. It's fascinating stuff and many New Zealanders will be unaware of what life was like back then. People did have more time for walks and board games with family members but on the downside (and I say this for completeness, not to be negative) there was widespread unemployment, poverty, riots and just an overall feeling of the "blahs" across the country.

Apart from reading, I've also painted my front fence - I'd been meaning to do that for years!

https://thegreatdepressionofthe30s.weebly.com/significant-impact.html

[clip]

Well done Bob.. we got the last pot of stormy slate fence paint before lockdown and completed the second/final coat on the back fence. Apart from one panel that we ran out of paint for - shhh you cant notice it and we're telling ourselves its completed.

Also found leftover deck paint in the garage so have painted the unfinished trellis around the edge of the deck - as well as planting, sowing grass seed and tidying up the garden and building a path. Definitely a positive having time to do all these things!

[lissica]

Tend
A new virtual consultation for doctors consultation
A good idea to protect front line health care workers
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120772250/kiwi-power-couple-turn-heartbreak-into-healthcare-app-that-could-aid-coronavirus-fight

This is a company trying to capitalise on the pandemic. It is hardly a 'game changer'.

Many GPs had already implemented teleconsulting before the pandemic- it is part of the healthcare home initiative. The fact it accelerated in response to the Covid crisis shows how responsive general practices are to patient need. Right across the country, they put in place a strategy to go 70%+ virtual consults on the weekend of the 21/22nd March, before the Level 3 alert was announced on the 23 March.

As soon as you need an examination, the business model comes unstuck. If your enrolment is with a virtual practice, then when you need something done (vaccination, long acting contraceptives, suturing or wound management), you will have to find a bricks and mortar practice 'and' pay casual rates. Virtual consulting augments traditional general practice, not the other way around.

Also, unless you are a frequent health user, it's simpler to log into a virtual GP waiting room (eg with Doxy.me), than to have an App on the phone which you hardly ever use.

[dodgy]

Hi All,
Just to join this discussion I have the following comments.
NZ (if you believe current diatribe), appears well placed to exercise a move toward capitalising on the prospect of exporting virus clean product to a world currently depleting its food stocks and that will soon be seeking to restock.I see the potential being huge if carefully managed. The downside facing us is insufficient tight controls to prevent off shore investment buying our temporarily distressed companies.
Collectively from this forum I urge you to please start moving youself and your contacts from the doom and destruction, by talking down our share / company and real estate values and start to turn over every stone to find upsides.
New Zealand can do it - abundant resources including energy and a well educated and healthy workforce full of innovation.
Try and win, neglect and fail.
Live well, stay happy.
-dodgy

[Leftfield]

I'm with you Dodgy! We can do it.

[Balance]

Well said, dodgy!

Nothing to fear but irrational fear itself!

Once in a decade opportunity!

[ratkin]

Have enjoyed every minute of this lock down. It so pleasant with no cars on the roads, If it was up to me I would ban the lot of them like parts of Utrecht have in the Netherlands. Great to see families out cycling together.

The change of pace generally is so welcome, no rushing around for work, even enjoyed something as simple as doing a jigsaw puzzle this week.
Reports from around the world of wildlife making a resurgence, less pollution with better air quality. Much of it is not due to the lock down as such, more the lack of cars, maybe people will learn from this. I doubt it though, not in this country. Christchurch had a great chance to change things after the earthquakes, but it just ended up the same congestion as before. Waste of a great opportunity.

[kiora]

Have enjoyed every minute of this lock down. It so pleasant with no cars on the roads, If it was up to me I would ban the lot of them like parts of Utrecht have in the Netherlands. Great to see families out cycling together.

The change of pace generally is so welcome, no rushing around for work, even enjoyed something as simple as doing a jigsaw puzzle this week.
Reports from around the world of wildlife making a resurgence, less pollution with better air quality. Much of it is not due to the lock down as such, more the lack of cars, maybe people will learn from this. I doubt it though, not in this country. Christchurch had a great chance to change things after the earthquakes, but it just ended up the same congestion as before. Waste of a great opportunity.

Maybe the Amish have got it right after all?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOfZLb33uCg

[Valuegrowth]

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#rates-peaked

Commentary updated: 10 /11Apr 2020
SHOW DATA POINTS (http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/points.html#rates-peaked)


The graph shows daily increase in confirmed cases per million inhabitants, plotted on a log scale, against time. A Holt-Winters moving average filter with constants α=0.5 and β=0.5 has been applied to smooth the curves as differences are very noisy. This is a moderate amount of smoothing and it imposes a about a days lag, but it does extract trends fairly well. The curves are not offset, today is Day 0 for all curves.
On this graph I show the countries that I believe have likely peaked, and I have aligned the day they peaked at day 0.
It doesn't really make sense to show Chinese cases per million inhabitants, when 82% of the cases were in Hubei province. I have therefore used the Hubei population as the China population when calculating cases per million inhabitants. Really all I care about on this graph is the shape of the curve.
It is notable that China and Korea rose faster to their peaks and declined faster from their peaks than western countrie
Italy's peak appears to be rather broad. In part this may be due to a large increase in testing just after the time of the peak, which might give the impression cases are not falling as fast as they really are.
New Zealand appears to be exhibiting a broad peak, similar to a number of European countries, including Germany and the Netherlands.
Finland was previously on this graph, but no longer looks to have peaked.

SHOW DATA POINTS (http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/points.html#covid-world-norm2)


The graph shows cumulative number of confirmed cases per million inhabitants, plotted on a log scale, against time. The country curves are shown offset by the amounts shown.
Canada was following the Italy curve relatively closely until about two weeks ago, and has steadily dropped below since then. Canada may have peaked on April 2nd or perhaps on April 5th, but there has been no significant decline since then, so it is too early to tell if this was the real peak.
Australia peaked on March 28th and has show strong declines since. New Zealand peaked on April 5th.


SHOW DATA POINTS (http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/points.html#covid-world-warm) for Warm Countries



The graph shows cumulative number of confirmed cases, plotted on a log scale, against time. The country curves are shown offset by the amounts shown.
Most warm countries do not have enough cases to establish a clear increase rate trend. The graph shows number of confirmed case for some typical "cool" countries and some "warm" ones.
India, Indonesia and Egypt are all warm countries and have all were experiencing roughly 14% daily growth. The last few days Egypt and Indonesia have seen a significant decline in growth rate, and Egypt may be peaking, though we won't have confidence in this for a few more days.
Australia was on the 14% curve, but then switched to the 22% curve. This appeared to correspond to temperatures reducing, but more analysis would be needed to know if this is significant. Since then, Australia's daily confirmed case count has peaked (http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#rates-peaked), then declined significantly.
Malaysia had been tracking close to 14%, but has not seen exponential growth since March 16th. Malaysia peaked either on March 26th or April 3rd (the two peaks are similar), but declines since have been slow and it is possible another peak may still occur.
Brazil was tracking roughly along the 35% line for a while, which seems to run counter to warm weather inhibiting the spread of the virus, but recently it has moved to lower growth. I have now aligned Brazil with the 14% curve experience by other warm countries, and Brazil has roughly followed this track for nearly three weeks. Brazil actually has both tropical and equatorial climate zones, so it unclear how this should manifest in COVID-19 progression.
Bahrain and Kuwait have very low recent increase levels. This may indicate that most cases were imports, and that local spread has been effectively contained.
Qatar previously was following the same curve as Bahrain, but the last week has increased suddenly to match the 14% daily increase rate of Brazil.
Although Singapore has a warm climate, I have omitted it from this graph, because strong contact tracing there dwarfs any climate-dependent effect we might observe.
Vietnam and Cambodia are shown on this graph (http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#covid-world-seasia); both have warm humid climates and very low recent growth.
In general, it does appear that COVID19 may spread more slowly in warm climates, but the evidence is inconclusive, and it appears to require relatively hot temperatures to have much effect.

[kiora]

Vegetable Exports on the up
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2004/S00211/new-zealand-onion-growers-celebrate-multimillion-dollar-export-success-in-indonesia.htm?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+14+ April+2020
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/watties-in-desperate-search-staff-record-demand?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+14+ April+2020

[Timesurfer]

Vegetable Exports on the up
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2004/S00211/new-zealand-onion-growers-celebrate-multimillion-dollar-export-success-in-indonesia.htm?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+14+ April+2020
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/watties-in-desperate-search-staff-record-demand?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+14+ April+2020

Tip of the iceberg.
The crop growers on the other side of the world are struggling to get their crops harvested because of the global lock down and people unwilling to submit themselves to the slave-like conditions and wages traditionally paid.
At the very least these growers are going to have to pay more and provide better working conditions which enable our growers to better compete. So it should be an upside for our primary industry.

[Arthur]

March was the first month since 2002 when there has not been a school shooting in USA.
Nobody died on the roads in NZ over Easter.
The Democrats have a catchy new slogan. Remove the turd on November the third.

[fungus pudding]

March was the first month since 2002 when there has not been a school shooting in USA.
Nobody died on the roads in NZ over Easter.
The Democrats have a catchy new slogan. Remove the turd on November the third.

Dump the prick
Next time you tick.

[fungus pudding]

If you are a Trump supporter, one positive is that I hear his ratings are as strong as ever, despite his botched Covid "response".

Forget what you hear. have a look at trend in polls.

[Timesurfer]

Forget what you hear. have a look at trend in polls.
Polls run by whom?

World’s largest pork processor shuts down Chinese owned located in the US. Price of meat is climbing in the US.

[fungus pudding]

I typically use FiveThiryEight - just had a look today and their data corroborate what I heard and posted - what polls are you talking about? Perhaps you need to look more widely than just one or two (which we know will tend to be noisy).

FYI, his approval rating is higher now than it was at the beginning of the year and anytime in 2019 or 2018 for that matter.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
That's probably the best source. And if you look you will see the sharp drop in recent days. That's the trend I mentioned in previous post - dropping approval.

[Bobdn]

Some positive news: Hospitals have been significantly less busy since The Covid. Hopefully surgeons, nurses and other staff have been able to take it a little easier during this time. God knows they've earned a break.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12324807

[Arthur]

It should be much easier to get a booking on tracks like the Milford Track.

[fungus pudding]

Ah gotcha. I wouldnt read too much into just a few recent data points though. The general trend since Covid started is still upward for Trump.
Sharp reversal. Time will tell.

[fungus pudding]

It should be much easier to get a booking on tracks like the Milford Track.
Milford track is never a problem. Just go out of season. Done it several times and it's always better when it's closed season. There are operators who will supply transport to start of track. Road and over lake and also back from sound.

[IAK]

It should be much easier to get a booking on tracks like the Milford Track.

Ditto for te Tongariro Crossing.

[Bobdn]

A new innovative, fairer, kinder, fit for for purpose tax system.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121016852/coronavirus-tax-changes-coming-to-pay-for-covid19-response-what-will-they-look-like

The Government might reluctantly have to implement a wealth tax/inheritance tax. They will have no choice, you see, because of... The Covid.

[fungus pudding]

A new innovative, fairer, kinder, fit for for purpose tax system.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121016852/coronavirus-tax-changes-coming-to-pay-for-covid19-response-what-will-they-look-like

The Government might reluctantly have to implement a wealth tax/inheritance tax. They will have no choice, you see, because of... The Covid.

Doesn't the rule book say 'thou shalt not covid they neighbours' goodies' ?

[davflaws]

Doesn't the rule book say 'thou shalt not covid they neighbours' goodies' ?

I think that was your neighbours wife's ass

[fungus pudding]

I think that was your neighbours wife's ass

No. That was the next rule in the book - or for the truly deluded - carved into a piece of stone.

[jonu]

I think that was your neighbours wife's ass

That's 2 rules for the price of one

[King1212]

Great news on CNBC....Dow futures up almost 700poony because the found the drug that effective to cure the virus...n was used in US hospital

[blackcap]

Great news on CNBC....Dow futures up almost 700poony because the found the drug that effective to cure the virus...n was used in US hospital

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

[Tomtom]

A new innovative, fairer, kinder, fit for for purpose tax system.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121016852/coronavirus-tax-changes-coming-to-pay-for-covid19-response-what-will-they-look-like

The Government might reluctantly have to implement a wealth tax/inheritance tax. They will have no choice, you see, because of... The Covid. I heard Grant Roberson appear to talk about partial nationalisation of some industries in an interview today. It appears the current government are eager to exploit the situation.

One change I would support, to create an incentive and encourage people back into employment even if it's only part time, is a 0% starting rate for income tax. However as Grant Robertson has ruled out tax cuts I won't be holding my breath.

New taxes will have to be levied of course, someone will have to pick up the bill and aligning the top income tax rate with other countries likely seems the most defensible place to start.

[King1212]

New vaccine also ready to be rolled out by Oxford scientist..so goodbye corona!

[clip]

New vaccine also ready to be rolled out by Oxford scientist..so goodbye corona!

Can you post a reference to this?

[carrom74]

Can you post a reference to this?

here it is...

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/world/oxford-university-scientists-signal-breakthrough-in-search-coronavirus-vaccine

[kiora]

Concert tomorrow noon on National Geographic on Sky or MTV @ 6pm
https://www.stuff.co.nz/entertainment/entertainment-top-stories/121103312/huge-online-live-concert-for-sunday-april-19-will-feature-starstudded-cast

[moka]

I think this is a real positive - business and government working together under the inspirational leadership of Rob Fyfe. Lots of cooperation, creativity and innovation.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?objectid=12325720&&ref=recommended
(https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?objectid=12325720&&ref=recommended)
Indepth interview: Rob Fyfe - prepare to live in a Covid-19 world

"I'm talking to businesses all the time who are, in some ways, almost ahead of government in terms of thinking how can they can operate their businesses and maintain social distancing, make sure they have early detection systems for anyone that may be exhibiting the most mild of symptoms."
"I personally think whenever we get out of lockdown, it will be far faster than it would have been if we'd waited another week or two to go in. I think we're seeing evidence of that in other countries in Europe and so on. So full marks to the Government for being bold."
Fyfe has been energised by the willingness of New Zealand businesses to step up and help the national effort. "I've press-ganged a whole lot of people to assist," he says. "I've been amazed at the level of goodwill

[moka]

Another good article this time by Rob Campbell saying this is an opportunity to rethink how we want New Zealand to be in the future. It is a chance for some new thinking and innovative ideas to make New Zealand a better place for everyone. Out of crisis comes opportunity. I like that he says "there's no-one more socialist than a businessman who has had his business go bad. The hand goes out to Government pretty quickly."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12325269
(https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12325269)
Covid 19 coronavirus: No going back to the old economy so be careful how you spend taxpayer cash: Rob Campbell

The honeypot of Covid-19 Government cash could be tempting companies to make distorted and value-destroying decisions in a misguided rush to recreate the "old" economy, warns business leader Rob Campbell.
And the chairman of Tourism Holdings, SkyCity Entertainment and Summerset Group says he'd prefer most of that taxpayer-funded honey go to supporting businesses and families at "the bottom of the pile" rather than infrastructure building under some trickle-down economic theory.
"Most of the pain of the lockdown and the transition out of lockdown will be felt by people at the bottom of the pile socially and economically," says Campbell.

[King1212]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-17/oxford-vaccine-veteran-lays-out-coronavirus-immunization-plans

[kiora]

"Immortalise NZ's hero of quarantine and grab yourself a sweet tee or tote bag,"
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/fashion/121049868/coronavirus-get-the-ashley-bloomfield-tshirt

[kiora]

Maybe positive or negative :scared:

"They suggested a solution to the company, that each man teamed up with his wife, fulfilling the company's safety requirements, the government lockdown measures and merging work and home bubble, thereby keeping risk of infection low."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/better-business/120847243/coronavirus-sanford-solves-worker-distance-dilemma-by-hiring-bubbles

[Timesurfer]

One change I would support, to create an incentive and encourage people back into employment even if it's only part time, is a 0% starting rate for income tax. However as Grant Robertson has ruled out tax cuts I won't be holding my breath.

A tax break verses a tax handout - seems like a neutral proposition and one could use either method to achieve the same result.

The problem with tax breaks is that the benevolent dictator doesn’t get to decide who gets the money.

In this global wealth shift we are trying to move wealth from the masses to the few. To achieve our end goals we need to get rid of the middle class, create one world currency (it won’t be bitcoin but it will be digital), and then one world Government.

But hey, I am off to put on my tinfoil hat and sit in the corner for a while.

[King1212]

Can not do a tax break...the crown needs revenue. It is easier to borrow n pay low interest n do a hand out so economy can recover faster.

But.... problem with hand out ... people is always crying poor....greed..

[BlackPeter]

New vaccine also ready to be rolled out by Oxford scientist..so goodbye corona!

Well, just in case you missed it - they talk about earliest autumn - and this is Northern hemisphere autumn. At least 6 months to go.

Trump and the dumbest of his followers yelling for Corona infections will only need one more month to turn the US like Spain, Italy or France into a huge morgue, but this might be actually good news. These rallies inevitably will spread the virus and I assume its mainly Trump supporters going there.

Social distancing in Trumpland: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/us/texas-protests-stay-at-home.html

[Timesurfer]

Can not do a tax break...the crown needs revenue. It is easier to borrow n pay low interest n do a hand out so economy can recover faster.

But.... problem with hand out ... people is always crying poor....greed..

True. But it is big corporations that will collect the majority of bailout money, thousands of small businesses and people who have invested in property and the like that will go to the wall. Last time they bailed out AirNZ for example put other small national carriers under because they couldn’t compete with a taxpayer funded loss making entity.

[steveb]

Ok so jacinda has (by the looks of it) steered us out of the nightmares of this virus,and I think most people will agree that she has done a good job.
But a little like churchill after WW2 is she the right person going forward,remember her ministers have shown themselves to be pretty inept,and the financial rebuild is something we can't afford to get wrong.Is it time for John Key to step up again?

[dobby41]

I hope your bloody joking about John Key who would sell out the country for alittle money in his pocket not a worry...
:t_down:cc

We agree on something.
The idea that JK would steer us out of here is just a joke.

[Blue Skies]

Ok so jacinda has (by the looks of it) steered us out of the nightmares of this virus,and I think most people will agree that she has done a good job.
But a little like churchill after WW2 is she the right person going forward,remember her ministers have shown themselves to be pretty inept,and the financial rebuild is something we can't afford to get wrong.Is it time for John Key to step up again?

Easy to cast aspersions with such sweeping statements as 'all her ministers have shown themselves to be pretty inept'.

But as well as Jacinda Adern who has shown herself to be an outstanding leader, ministers like Grant Robertson, Andrew Little, David Parker, Chris Hipkins & Tracey Martin from NZF are all exceptionally dedicated, informed & highly competent ministers. Don't mean to exclude others, but those are just my picks.

I like John Key but unfortunately a lot of indicators (housing, income inequality, health, infrastructure, loss of valuable people in public sector, ballooning dependence & costs in private consultancy, transparency etc) were going in the wrong direction by the end of National's last term. Even Simon Bridges acknowledges & disassociates himself from some of those failings now.

[kiora]

"Coronavirus: 'Cartels are scrambling' as Covid-19 hits global drug trade"
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/121121233/coronavirus-cartels-are-scrambling-as-covid19-hits-global-drug-trade

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

Easy to cast aspersions with such sweeping statements as 'all her ministers have shown themselves to be pretty inept'.

But as well as Jacinda Adern who has shown herself to be an outstanding leader, ministers like Grant Robertson, Andrew Little, David Parker, Chris Hipkins & Tracey Martin from NZF are all exceptionally dedicated, informed & highly competent ministers. Don't mean to exclude others, but those are just my picks.

I like John Key but unfortunately a lot of indicators (housing, income inequality, health, infrastructure, loss of valuable people in public sector, ballooning dependence & costs in private consultancy, transparency etc) were going in the wrong direction by the end of National's last term. Even Simon Bridges acknowledges & disassociates himself from some of those failings now.

Well said Blue Skies. Many of the MPs have done an excellent job over the last couple of months; NZF and Green MPs included IMHO.

[King1212]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12326015

Rich people are flowing to NZ...that will make our assests even higher!

[fungus pudding]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12326015

Rich people are flowing to NZ...that will make our assests even higher!

Why?
.

[King1212]

Richbwill bring their money here...buying houses...shares....etc

[winner69]

Wonder what the %ages are for NZ

@hedgeye
"No question Millennials are entering this economic crisis with less wealth than earlier generations had at the same age. In 1990, when Boomers were early/mid-30s, they owned 21% of US wealth. In Q4 of 2019, Millennials owned 2.7%."

via @HoweGeneration

[mp52]

Richbwill bring their money here...buying houses...shares..
I’m only interested in them coming here if they bring net productivity gains and QUALITY employment opportunities. We’re not Costa Rica yet - let’s keep it that way.

[King1212]

They have to buys our bonds first to be eligible to get resident...then left over money to house then shares

[King1212]

Only 9 cases..all community testing is negative...so alert 3 here we come! At least for a week then alert 2 after Anzac

[nztx]

Can not do a tax break...the crown needs revenue. It is easier to borrow n pay low interest n do a hand out so economy can recover faster.

But.... problem with hand out ... people is always crying poor....greed..

Well Robertson has to do something otherwise risk losing a substantial part of the tax base with
the damage likely to escalate further, with reduced trade for those businesses left still standing
but wondering what fraction of trade will be left for them on the other side

We all know where that will go, before any sign of improvement becomes visible

It's all very well loading all the displaced & newly unemployed into reskilling & retraining programs
& into Govt Sector - but who is paying for that ?

The Taxbase left standing will only take so much of hiking up tax collect & any other Labor BS
thrown at them by a Govt trying to fill a gaping hole spread over a substantially reduced bunch
of victims, before they start throwing their hands up & potentially tossing more on to the heap
for Govt Life Support & retraining / reallocation.

Tell me that the analysis is being too harsh by all means, but this present Govt had a good number
of further options when they saw what was happening in earlier C-19 days and did very little
effectively at that point, so have aided and abetted a deepening of the Economic Crisis
on the country.

The Mission should have been to stem the source of the problem, contain & quarantine it while it was
at very minimal levels capable of control and most importantly at all costs "DO NOT BITE the HAND THAT
FEEDS" and "DO NOT NEEDLESSLY DAMAGE THE ECONOMY"


There are a considerable number of glaring fails in Govt's handling of the whole thing at an early enough point

The Labor Govt have dug their own deep ditch through their failure to act effectively & soon enough and when grim reality
of their failings sinks in, they will likely wear the consequences of this for a long time

[digger]

Almost no chance that happens IMO, but I stand to be corrected. I do think there is a chance they go to Alert 3 from Wednesday, but zero chance of 2 the week after.

My pick, for what its worth (and is different to what I would like to see), is that Ardern announces we will go to alert level three from 11:59pm Monday 27th.

spot on RnT

[Valuegrowth]

Sweden could have 'herd immunity' by next month.Restaurants, cinemas, gyms, pubs, and shops remain open.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8233783/Sweden-herd-immunity-month-claims-infectious-diseases-chief.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8233783/Sweden-herd-immunity-month-claims-infectious-diseases-chief.html)

[fungus pudding]

Sweden could have 'herd immunity' by next month.Restaurants, cinemas, gyms, pubs, and shops remain open.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8233783/Sweden-herd-immunity-month-claims-infectious-diseases-chief.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8233783/Sweden-herd-immunity-month-claims-infectious-diseases-chief.html)

NZ has 2 deaths per million while Sweden has 133 per million. It will be decades before the comparison can be evaluated.

[BlackPeter]

Sweden could have 'herd immunity' by next month.Restaurants, cinemas, gyms, pubs, and shops remain open.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8233783/Sweden-herd-immunity-month-claims-infectious-diseases-chief.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8233783/Sweden-herd-immunity-month-claims-infectious-diseases-chief.html)

Quite nonsensical statement. I think it shows that their politicians are quite out of their depth and now fighting for their political life, given that the death rates in Sweden are much higher than in the neighbouring Scandinavian countries which did lock down.

But still - only roughly 1 % of Swedes so far gained immunity. For herd immunity they need more than 60%.

Given that to date it was 1,580 deaths in Sweden (to reach 1% immunity) they can look forward to kill another roughly 93,000 Swedes to get there.

But it looks like they do their best: Swedens death rates as well as new infections are rising without any peak in sight, but it will take longer than next month to get to the desired herd immunity.

[fungus pudding]

Quite nonsensical statement. I think it shows that their politicians are quite out of their depth and now fighting for their political life, given that the death rates in Sweden are much higher than in the neighbouring Scandinavian countries which did lock down.

But still - only roughly 1 % of Swedes so far gained immunity. For herd immunity they need more than 60%.

Given that to date it was 1,580 deaths in Sweden (to reach 1% immunity) they can look forward to kill another roughly 93,000 Swedes to get there.

But it looks like they do their best: Swedens death rates as well as new infections are rising without any peak in sight, but it will take longer than next month to get to the desired herd immunity.

And it will take decades to analyse the results. There is no doubt an economic shutdown will add suicide, domestic violence, murder, stress induced heart attacks and strokes etc. to their death toll. But this effect won't be known for many years. And the cost will be the lives of young and middle aged, as opposed to the aged who are currently the victims. So in terms of years of life lost - nobody knows the answer. But it can't be assumed, on available figures, that Sweden has it wrong.

[TideMan]

I don't get how either herd immunity or a vaccine will work.
Covid 19 is related to the common cold, right?
There is no herd immunity with the common cold - we all get it from time to time.
There is no vaccine for the common cold.

If it were so easy, why don't we have herd immunity and a vaccine for the common cold?

[blackcap]

I
If it were so easy, why don't we have herd immunity and a vaccine for the common cold?

Possibly because the common cold has no long term (or even short term) harmful effects on people? No real incentive to find a vaccine there.

[steveb]

this article claims there is no link to the common cold:-
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-coronavirus-common-cold/claim-the-new-coronavirus-is-a-common-cold-idUSKBN2142MC

They say the common cold could have been wiped out years ago if the pharmaceutical companies didn't make a fortune from associated medicines to relieve the symptoms

[TideMan]

this article claims there is no link to the common cold:-
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-coronavirus-common-cold/claim-the-new-coronavirus-is-a-common-cold-idUSKBN2142MC



No it doesn't say that.
It says Covid 19 is in the same family as the common cold, but it IS NOT the common cold.

I agree that there is no money for pharmaceutical companies in finding a vaccine for the common cold.

[BlackPeter]

I don't get how either herd immunity or a vaccine will work.
Covid 19 is related to the common cold, right?
There is no herd immunity with the common cold - we all get it from time to time.
There is no vaccine for the common cold.

If it were so easy, why don't we have herd immunity and a vaccine for the common cold?

Actually - we are immune against the cold strains we experienced ... it is just that most (well, all successful) cold viruses tend to mutate quite fast into new strains nobody is immune against.

My understanding is that it appears so far that the Coronavirus causing COVID 19 seems to mutate less frequently ... but obviously, it is too early days to be certain.

So - you are right, there is clearly a risk that there never will be a vaccine or herd immunity, but it is not a certainty.

BTW - only roughly 40% of common colds are caused by Corona viruses, roughly 60% are caused by Rhino viruses.

[steveb]

Reserve bank are looking at dropping the 20% deposit for new home buyers,this will help the people who still have a job,and have not had to take a pay cut.

[King1212]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8241929/Oxford-University-coronavirus-vaccine-trials-start-week.html?ito=push-notification&ci=13525&si=6376047

[dobby41]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8241929/Oxford-University-coronavirus-vaccine-trials-start-week.html?ito=push-notification&ci=13525&si=6376047

A tough way to make a few bob.

[Sideshow Bob]

A tough way to make a few bob.

Plenty of Kiwi backpackers over the years took part in medical trials to pay for a few months travel.

Usually it was something a little more benign than Corona virus....:huh:

[kiora]

People helping people
How can you help?
Honey
https://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/news/121028239/honey-exporter-donates-500k-worth-of-product-to-kiwi-charities?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+23 +April+2020
Meat the need
https://meattheneed.org/

[fungus pudding]

Reserve bank are looking at dropping the 20% deposit for new home buyers,this will help the people who still have a job,and have not had to take a pay cut.

It will mean they will compete with a longer line of buyers, and of course push the prices up. If that's helping, I'm not sure how.

[steveb]

It will mean they will compete with a longer line of buyers, and of course push the prices up. If that's helping, I'm not sure how.
Come now do you not remember the first house you bought,that sense of satisfaction at actually owning your own home.Prices can go up but if you are on the property ladder so what.I paid $49K for my first home would it have mattered if it was $55K no it wouldn't as long as I could afford the mortgage.

[Southern_Belle]

The RBNZ LVR scheme is quite a bit more nuanced than that. In fact thats not really the gist of it at all.



The intention, if it goes ahead, is to take away some of the restrictions placed on banks lending. Yes, in theory it will increase demand, but the anticipated reduction in demand will far outweigh that. It will hopefully cushion the blow to the housing market but more importantly allowing and encouraging banks to lend in this climate is crucial.Another 'concern' it will allow existing homeowners to 'borrow' increased amounts against their house.

[Timesurfer]

Another 'concern' it will allow existing homeowners to 'borrow' increased amounts against their house.

Which even with short memories people should be able to recall a recent event sparked from banks over-lending to people who couldn't afford it and the mountain of junk debt that came crashing down?

[dobby41]

Which even with short memories people should be able to recall a recent event sparked from banks over-lending to people who couldn't afford it and the mountain of junk debt that came crashing down?

The banks, in recent times, have been pretty tight in their lending.
I'm not sure that loosening the LVR will increase lending a lot.

[kiora]

Sign we are going inflate our way out of this.Using inflation to pay our way out
“if it jams, force it – if it breaks, it needed replacing anyway”,
https://thespinoff.co.nz/food/25-04-2020/hospitality-is-broken-and-the-covid-19-crisis-gives-us-the-chance-to-fix-it/?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+25 +April+2020

[Blue Skies]

Sign we are going inflate our way out of this.Using inflation to pay our way out
“if it jams, force it – if it breaks, it needed replacing anyway”,
https://thespinoff.co.nz/food/25-04-2020/hospitality-is-broken-and-the-covid-19-crisis-gives-us-the-chance-to-fix-it/?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+25 +April+2020


From what I read, the main problem is way too many food outlets for the size of our population. Supply & demand.
She says, NZ has over 100,000 food outlets. So lowering customers expectations & increasing the customers bill seems a strange way to go about fixing things.
Overseas visitors often comment how expensive food in cafes & restaurants here is already.

[fungus pudding]

From what I read, the main problem is way too many food outlets for the size of our population. Supply & demand.
She says, NZ has over 100,000 food outlets. So lowering customers expectations & increasing the customers bill seems a strange way to go about fixing things.
Overseas visitors often comment how expensive food in cafes & restaurants here is already.

Then they haven't been to Europe.

[dobby41]

Then they haven't been to Europe.

Europe is a big place but many of the bits I've been to are cheaper - you could afford to eat every meal out.