Chinese / NZ trade relationship

[ynot]

It's looking possible China will emerge C/V faster than other major nations. With NZ's strong established Chinese trade links this could work in our favour. Dairy, meat, logging, Kiwifruit, etc.

Exports rose $302 million (31 percent) to $1.3 billion in January 2020 compared with January 2019.

The rise was led by an increase in dairy, meat and logging, Statistics New Zealand says.

[dodgy]

It's looking possible China will emerge C/V faster than other major nations. With NZ's strong established Chinese trade links this could work in our favour. Dairy, meat, logging, Kiwifruit, etc.

Exports rose $302 million (31 percent) to $1.3 billion in January 2020 compared with January 2019.

The rise was led by an increase in dairy, meat and logging, Statistics New Zealand says.

And who best placed to capitalise on this than QEX who as I understand has good established contacts and a China based bond store. Comments ?
thanks,
-dodgy (holder)

[Raz]

And who best placed to capitalise on this than QEX who as I understand has good established contacts and a China based bond store. Comments ?
thanks,
-dodgy (holder)

Yes I did see this is expected with a great dependency on China being the longer term risk....

[Crypto Crude]

China is being sued for trillions of dollars over coronavirus and International trading relations could forever be changed...
In some form, The World will effectively turn on China ... so these sorts of investments, trading with China need to be extremely cautious... would be right off my radar especially for now...
:cool:cc

[kiwidollabill]

^ This...

The US foreign policy is going to turn more negative on China, a retoric of 'blaming them' for COVID. This may become a major part of the presidential election. The US will encourage for others to turn away from China, we may have to pick sides.... China will also rachet up their authoritarian stance on their own people and control over the economy.

Through lack of exports, their GDP growth will slow, but likely they will try and prop it up with more infrastructure building. Chinas ability to compete on basic manufacturing (textiles is a canary in the coal mine for me) has been declining for some time and because of this companies will look to diversify their supply chains - will see growth in other areas of SE Asia, Pakistan/India and emerging economies. There are some general trends been going on for some time, COVID will bring it all forward.

Time frame 5-10yrs before the boil comes off? Who knows....

[traineeinvestor]

Although my legal practice was in a different area, I agree with this author that the lawsuits against China are laughable: https://www.justsecurity.org/69460/dont-bother-suing-china-for-coronavirus/

On the other hand, it's not hard to see certain political "leaders" ramping up the China bashing as a means of distracting from their own failures and/or pandering to populism.

Regardless, whether we like it or not, China is too big a part of the world economy for countries to give it the cold shoulder when they desperately need to reboot their own economies.

As there's a separate thread for QEX, I'll post my comments on that company there.

[Blue Skies]

China is our largest market & 30% of our exports.
This over-dependence on one market was once seen as a weakness, but with China coming out of this faster than the US or EU, these established trade links are now seen as a big advantage for NZ economy.

[blackcap]

China is our largest market & 30% of our exports.
This over-dependence on one market was once seen as a weakness, but with China coming out of this faster than the US or EU, these established trade links are now seen as a big advantage for NZ economy.

I do not really think China is coming out of "it" faster than the US or EU. Do you honestly believe their figures? And our exports to an extent (primary produce) are not affected by being "in" or "out" of this. Tourism which was also reliant on China is going to suffer regardless. This Wuhan Coronavirus Pandemic is causing a lot of global crap and the CCP could have done something about it but did not.

[whatsup]

It's looking possible China will emerge C/V faster than other major nations. With NZ's strong established Chinese trade links this could work in our favour. Dairy, meat, logging, Kiwifruit, etc.

Exports rose $302 million (31 percent) to $1.3 billion in January 2020 compared with January 2019.

The rise was led by an increase in dairy, meat and logging, Statistics New Zealand says.

This is the wrong slot for this discussion, it is not a share should be under general discussion, please remove.

[ynot]

I do not really think China is coming out of "it" faster than the US or EU. Do you honestly believe their figures? And our exports to an extent (primary produce) are not affected by being "in" or "out" of this. Tourism which was also reliant on China is going to suffer regardless. This Wuhan Coronavirus Pandemic is causing a lot of global crap and the CCP could have done something about it but did not.

So will Chinese demand for our exports reduce dramatically or not ?

[blackcap]

So will Chinese demand for our exports reduce dramatically or not ?

By the looks of how ATM is doing I do not think so.

[kiwidollabill]

China manufacturing exports (the cashflow of their economy) is heavily dependent on global consumer spend. With close to 20% of the us workforce filing for unemployment how are they going to be strong in this? navigated GFC by lowballing exising manufacturers in the developed world.

IMHO the majority of economy data which comes out is what the party wants it to be...

[blackcap]

Even the Herald are saying China is Ass Hole...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12355007

[iceman]

https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/9/21360598/huawei-chips-us-sanctions-trump-china-privacy-smartphone

[Jaa]

China is facing a major food shortage this year due to floods in central China along the Yangtze river which is China's rice bowl. Also a risk they keep spreading north and affect corn and wheat production.

Sad for the people affected. Lucky China has friends like the US and NZ who can export it food.

[Davexl]

China is facing a major food shortage this year due to floods in central China along the Yangtze river which is China's rice bowl. Also a risk they keep spreading north and affect corn and wheat production.

Sad for the people affected. Lucky China has friends like the US and NZ who can export it food.

Pity NZ doesn't grow more Rice & Soy. Food diplomacy would go a long way right now in calming the level of aggression between China & the US?

[Jaa]

Pity NZ doesn't grow more Rice & Soy. Food diplomacy would go a long way right now in calming the level of aggression between China & the US?

Not directly but most of China's corn and soy is used to feed chickens and especially pigs which were decimated last year by swine flu and are only just recovering. NZ meat exporters have done well as replacement protein and can expect to continue to do so.

[flyinglizard]

QEX heavily relied on Daigou channel, specialized in infant formula and healthy products. Actually after 2017, volume of small parcels through Daigou market increases but profitability decreases.

The recent increase in trade between NZ and China focus on dairy, meet, timber and fruit, so Mainfreight would be beneficial, rather than QEX.

[Baa_Baa]

QEX heavily relied on Daigou channel, specialized in infant formula and healthy products. Actually after 2017, volume of small parcels through Daigou market increases but profitability decreases.

The recent increase in trade between NZ and China focus on dairy, meet, timber and fruit, so Mainfreight would be beneficial, rather than QEX.

ATM? I’m wary of any of the ‘five eyes’ trade with China. The posturing could turn into a trade based reconciliation recovery, or war. The later I’m concerned about at this stage, we are weak and dependent on China’s benevolence for trade but also the five eyes benevolence for their protection. Awkward

[Waltzing]

china has reserves that its digging into for agricultural production, dont know how long they will last but china needs to be in growth for the rest of the world to get through the next 12 months. Second waves will hit europe and the US.

[Akane]

The way I see it, is that China is actually in a lot more trouble than they're telling everyone is in, which is very typical of CCP. CCP tricks are the same old tricks over and over again - "I'm saying it's OK so it's OK, do not question". One should look at how much of our exports are actually arriving on the shores of China, that should give you a good indication of how China is doing. But right now as others have said, Grandpa Xi has bitten off way more than he can chew, and he's trying to spread his powers across the South China Seas, he's pissing off practically EVERYONE, and a lot of countries are starting to turn their backs on China but with some fineness to some degree. I would discount on stocks that has to do with exports to China right now unless you're a gambling man.

[ynot]

Interesting subject. As I'm potentially personally effected, has this situation the potential to effect our hort exports to China.

[kiwidollabill]

Interesting subject. As I'm potentially personally effected, has this situation the potential to effect our hort exports to China.

What hort exports specifically? Apples/kiwifruit/Avocardos?

[ynot]

I am looking at planting kiwi or avo.leaning toward kiwi.

[kiwidollabill]

I am looking at planting kiwi or avo.leaning toward kiwi.

Kiwi long term looks strong but need to be planting Gold. Green Hayward under significant commodity pressure. Thats about as much as I could say.

[Joshuatree]

Gold one needs to pay re $400,000 a hectare licence fee, ive read.!! Id be looking at bread and butter green and the new red variety.