Which 5 NZX stocks do you think will have a good recovery from now?

[Nevl]

For me

Spark - Telecoms strong cashflow arrival of 5G giving business a boost
Meridian - Power strong cashflow good renewable power generation
FBU - yeah I know bad management but with the Govt dishing out cash like candy they cannot help but get some in their pockets
CVT - had a rough few years but with all the health care stuff happening should be good. But I think they need to diversify as well.
Seeka - High debt but the Kiwifruit industry has had a good season despite CV19, they need to diversify their product line a bit as well but should benefit from technological changes in Kiwifruit sector over the next few years.

Feel free to knock me down and put up other stocks.

[moka]

For me

Spark - Telecoms strong cashflow arrival of 5G giving business a boost
Meridian - Power strong cashflow good renewable power generation
FBU - yeah I know bad management but with the Govt dishing out cash like candy they cannot help but get some in their pockets
CVT - had a rough few years but with all the health care stuff happening should be good. But I think they need to diversify as well.
Seeka - High debt but the Kiwifruit industry has had a good season despite CV19, they need to diversify their product line a bit as well but should benefit from technological changes in Kiwifruit sector over the next few years.

Feel free to knock me down and put up other stocks.
When people talk about “dishing out candy” or a lolly scramble it says much more about the ethics and morals of those using those phrases than it does about the government.

I think cash from the government should be based on need not greed and businesses are in the best position to determine whether they have other resources to fall back on, which is one of the criteria.
Mainfreight's decision to fully stand on its own feet and return the $10.6 million wage subsidy, rather than milk taxpayer subsidies, is refreshing.
So too, Fletcher Building's decision not to seek an extension of the wage subsidy in June even though parts of its business where revenue is down 50 per cent would qualify.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12335946

[Chinesekiwi]

Moka - how about not hijacking a thread straight away, Nevl proposed a simple question - which you ignored with an off topic rant.

Back to the question posed.....

I would say possibly IFT as well, utilities and the like.

[Blue Skies]

Hopefully Retirement stocks which got hammered possibly from the fallout of huge numbers of Nursing Home deaths from Covid in the US & UK.

[DazRaz]

I would say possibly IFT as well, utilities and the like.

Definitely IFT. Vodafone similar to Nevl's Spark reasons plus they are building two data centres in Auckland which I presume is where Microsoft's NZ cloud will be hosted from. Also, they soon will be getting capital back from TLT for further investment elsewhere.

[Mufasa]

ATM - Look to continue strong growth and as they look to a dividend in 2022 I expect we will see the price push towards $30-35

OCA - Got hammered, by a sledge hammer, at the start of CV-19 panic, has rebounded quickly to mid .80's but expect to see this push past $1 in the next month. Forsyth Barr have target of $1.08 in the next 12 months, I think that will be blitzed by August and we will see $1.50 by end of 2020. It is the best deal on the NZX currently and has a huge future. I would be unloading on this. (Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor...Or am I?)

FPH - I expect this will come back slightly as CV-19 ramps down and some reality is put into its price. Its not all it (at its current price) is cracked up to be.

BLT - Little underdog of the NZX - based on its cash flow it should actually be up towards .20 - .30 which puts in anywhere from 50% - 70% undervalued. It just has an inability to report and announce properly. Focuses too much on the numbers it has produced and likes to celebrate with balloons for that, instead of also imparting some wisdom on what its forward guidance is - I suspect it is just so unsure of its own strategy and how they will maintain growth that they are to scared to put out guidance and then look sill when they have to pull back. There is some argument though that if they can really put their probiotic skincare range on the market that this could push them towards the next ATM, on a small scale however.

TLT - this one is like a bucket without a bottom at the moment in terms of cash. Well placed to capitalise on its full wallet position and dominate the renewable energy market.

AIR - If you have taken out a second mortgage to unload into this beauty, then be prepared to be broke. Wouldn't touch this until end of FY2022 with a pole, even if that pole had a 2nd, 3rd and 4th pole tied to it. So much delusion built into this at the moment. Wait for it to come crashing down on reporting or at the next market crash. Very sad to see the old girl struggling but that is the nature of their business.

[kiora]

Gtk
plx
ift
ebo
mnf

[keenkiwiflyer]

Don’t know if recovery is the right word, but I think PLX is placed for strong growth.

[traineeinvestor]

I'm not sure if this is a simple question to answer. For my part, I expect the recovery to be uneven. Some sectors will recover sooner than others and that timing makes balance sheet strength critically important – companies that need to raise capital should, IMHO, be avoided for the simple reason that placing shares at a discount to market effectively screws the existing shareholders.

The two biggest questions which I have no idea how to answer are (i) when will the border reopen to allow enough tourists/visitors/students in without having to suck up 2 weeks of quarantine and (ii) what extra taxes we will have cough up in the not too distant future.

On my potential "buy" list at the moment (in no particular order) are:

FRE
CDI
MET

I'm wary about the power companies – the risk of Tiwi being **** down + lower consumption as we head into a recession but CEN would probably be my fist choice at the moment

The port companies may do okay on the back of exports but are all quite expensive. I hold MMH.

Quality companies like ATM, EBO, MFT, POT, FPH are all very expensive ... but then they always have been.

I'm not convinced the prices of the major property companies yet reflect the reality of reduced rents on valuations (even allowing for lower funding costs) and, apart for CDI, am giving them a miss at the moment.

I blow hot and cold on FBU.

I'm still trawling though the smaller cap space.

I'm also on my second glass of wine for the evening ...

[Nevl]

No its not a simple question, just one that I thought might bring up new ideas for others and of course myself. Thanks for giving your input.

[horus1]

EBO.IFT,SCL,AFT and HGH

[CROESUS U.T.]

While I like AFT I don’t see it as a recovery share in that its price has already recovered well over the last year.

1.TLL provided they avoid the Transpac mentality and shed a tired director ; they are a sleeping giant that could grow with fairly priced acquisitions, and more focused management. Need to realise that they are no longer a trucking company.

2.QEX will benefit from their Asian connections as those economies grow

3.GTK potential for growth as utilities and airports look to shave costs

4.ERD bit of a hit on forestry that will take a while to recover,

5.SKL When one of the squattocracy can’t afford a new Parnell tractor he’ll settle for some new Red Bands

[Waiuta]

I think ZEL will enjoy a moderate rise and has survived the lockdown and capital raise well.
I wouldn't write off KPG just yet as there is good synergy between them and their tenants.
IFT is an anchor of mine and although there are high management fees, they perform will and are innovative.
SPK is another anchor and will do well with 5G
I'm also convinced HGH is a well run company and continues to perform despite some setbacks.
I hold all five plus another couple pride prevents me from taking a hit. (NZR :AIR)

[Beagle]

OCA
MET

Sorry, I don't have 5, that's it.

[Ggcc]

IFT with the Data storage and many other investments
OCA have done really well during the COVID crisis and will be over $1 hopefully by Christmas
ATM might surprise
SKL is on my watchlist
TRA may give a good share price lift for the short term, but that would be a gamble.

[JeffW]

Ebo
ift
oca
mft
met

[Waltzing]

although this cris is different from the GFC (GPHC) as look at the rates at which stocks revalued in the GFC might cuase some surprises.

[RRR]

Risky bets, but..
SKO
VGL
SKC
TRA
SKT

[tim23]

Hgh, oca, arv, air & vgl

[tommy_d]

oca/scl/tra/san/skl are money where my mouth is
atm/hgh/san/anz/stu/sml i'm looking at closely too (either to buy or to sell)

crazy thing is that the board is so shallow that there are no "unknown" instruments

[iceman]

Of course it all depends on timeframe. I assume 2-3 years and replace "recovery" with "return" from here.
OCA
MFT
BOT
SEK
PAZ (USX)

Hold all of the above.

[Benny1]

OCA
ARV
LIV
BOT
IFT.. Have been looking at this closely, quite like the mix of companies they have a stake in at the moment particularly CDC ..see a lot if potential there.
Welly airport will get up and running again sooner or later!

[percy]

Well lets see how 5 from Unlisted do.Prices are last traded price...................................Market capitalisation
BLU.,..Bluesky Ordinary.......... $1.30.......Meat proccessor........................................ .....$14.98 mil
PAZ....Pharmazen........................50 cents.Nutritonal Ingredients manufacturer.................$109.38 mil
RNGA. Rangatira....................$11.25.Investment Company........................................... $69.35 mil
REL....Rural Equities..................$3.75.Rural property investor.......................................... $120 mil
SYF.....Syft Technologies.................80 cents.Analytical trace systems................................$59.14mil.
Disc I hold shares in both PAZ and SYF.


NZX Stocks I or wife hold.
GNE......$2.85
IKE...........77 cents
MEL.......$4.75
PGW.......$2.65
SPK........$4.42

[bottomfeeder]

In other words just about anything.

[younga]

Kflwf, Skt, mpg, smp thl....I own these....took a big hit with the Skt capital raise but I believe it's a good medium term hold.

[Aaron]

Well lets see how 5 from Unlisted do.Prices are last traded price...................................Market capitalisation
BLU.,..Bluesky Ordinary.......... $1.30.......Meat proccessor........................................ .....$14.98 mil
PAZ....Pharmazen........................50 cents.Nutritonal Ingredients manufacturer.................$109.38 mil
RNGA. Rangatira....................$11.25.Investment Company........................................... $69.35 mil
REL....Rural Equities..................$3.75.Rural property investor.......................................... $120 mil
SYF.....Syft Technologies.................80 cents.Analytical trace systems................................$59.14mil.
Disc I hold shares in both PAZ and SYF.

Hey Percy I thought you owned REL although I am probably confusing you with someone else. If you did own it, why sell?

[forest]

FWL Harvest Result, Outlook & Martinborough Development
2/6/2020, 2:13 pm GENERAL
2 June 2020

Foley Wines Limited Announces Harvest Result, Earnings Outlook and Development in Martinborough

2020 Harvest Result

Foley Wines Limited [NZX: FWL] CEO Mark Turnbull today announced that the company has completed its harvest for the 2020 vintage. The harvest totalled 7,802 tonnes across the Marlborough, Martinborough and Mt Difficulty wineries, an overall decrease of 6% on last year’s harvest of 8,304 tonnes. The harvest decrease was predominately driven by contracted growers being down 15% on last year while fruit from FWL’s own vineyards was up 1.8%.

Mr Turnbull said, “While our total tonnage may be down slightly, our teams did an incredible job operating in accordance with the strict conditions associated with Alert Level 4. We along with the rest of the industry are very thankful of the work done by NZ Winegrowers and the different Government agencies to allow us to harvest this year’s vintage.”

Foley Wines Group Chief Winemaker Alastair Maling MW said, “With a long drawn out summer and perfect conditions over March and April in Martinborough, Marlborough and Central Otago the quality of wines from 2020 will be some of the best in recent years.”

June 2020 Outlook

The Directors forecast operating earnings (before tax) for the 12 months ended 30 June 2020 will approximate $7.5m. This represents an increase of approximately 50% on 2019.

[Cyclical]

OCA - Having done really well out of this since getting back in in March, so with regards to recovery from here, not really sure as much of it has already happened. Maybe looking to break out over a dollar in the short term and we'll see where to after that.
MET - As with OCA, treated me well to date, a big upside if something positive comes from the EQT takeover. Failing that, may just be a long term hold in the hope they can pull finger and start making better use of capital. Minimal downside and may buy more if I'm in the mood.
HLG - Got it horribly wrong and sold out too cheap a couple of months ago. Back in now in a small way. May be long term before it pays off.
HGH - Been trading this one since March and done ok out of it. Where to from here, who knows. Currently a small holding.
TLL - Bit of a gamble, have some local knowledge of the company. Not much at stake. Would be nice if they offered updates to the market more regularly.

[macduffy]

This isn't "what stocks do I hope will make a good recovery" but "what stocks do I think will make a good recovery".
I nominate GNE, EBO RYM and FRE. Can't find a fifth!

[percy]

Well I hope other posters are not experiencing the same sort of volatility I am having.
Update from Craigs dated 12th March portfolio ,,,...100%
Update from Craigs dated 14th May, portfolio down 16.8%to 83.2%
Update from Craigs today..2nd June.portfolio now up 25%.to 125% from 12th March,and up an incredible 50% from 14th May.
And the % increase would be a lot higher had I not had the big cash up.[which I have not spent very much of.]
We certainly live in interesting times.

[kiora]

Well I hope other posters are not experiencing the same sort of volatility I am having.
Update from Craigs dated 12th March portfolio ,,,...100%
Update from Craigs dated 14th May, portfolio down 16.8%to 83.2%
Update from Craigs today..2nd June.portfolio now up 25%.to 125% from 12th March,and up an incredible 50% from 14th May.
And the % increase would be a lot higher had I not had the big cash up.[which I have not spent very much of.]
We certainly live in interesting times.

Yep
Portfolio ATH without putting all the cash from Feb back in,sigh,need it to cover other expenses anyway.
They say high risk=high volatility,they just forget the higher returns
Time will tell

[Waltzing]

My volatility is HUGE as i only sold AIR late at a loss (after making the same in profit from OCA ) and SKC i did not sell along with the Banks (yes i prehaps should have but where was the bottom?). I just hate selling all stocks even ones badly offensive in nature that are hit hard when i know that if the reserve banks of this world start buying Equities and high risks bonds then you have to decide 2 years later which stock do you buy back when in fact the stock market is disconnected from the economy and trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars of computed currency are created by a formula on a computer to buy high yield stock. Always keep 1 / 3 of your caputal in cash to buy in a crash... Now if you want to sell everything then its the final sell up...Its right now that you can use your 1/3 cash to buy stocks you dont own that are prehaps as much as 35 to 50% down and you need to ready to understand that those stocks may not return to cost for up to 2 to 5 years. If you cant stand that sort of risk in the market you should not be invested in the first place. If a day trading paradise for the next 2 years...

[stoploss]

Well I hope other posters are not experiencing the same sort of volatility I am having.
Update from Craigs dated 12th March portfolio ,,,...100%
Update from Craigs dated 14th May, portfolio down 16.8%to 83.2%
Update from Craigs today..2nd June.portfolio now up 25%.to 125% from 12th March,and up an incredible 50% from 14th May.
And the % increase would be a lot higher had I not had the big cash up.[which I have not spent very much of.]
We certainly live in interesting times.
Imagine if there was some liquidity in PAZ and you had managed to put some of the extra cash in there ......

[Checkmate]

Fletcher building is what I’m banking on. Just because I think it’s massively undervalued at present.

[traineeinvestor]

Fletcher building is what I’m banking on. Just because I think it’s massively undervalued at present.

Could you explain why you think it is "massively undervalued"? FBU's track record is the polar opposite of stellar in spite of the company's long history and strong market position.

[patrick]

Blis
Has best up prospects, I think. Big shareholder selling perhaps depressing SP.
Reported on BLT site a couple of months ago that at 6.1 cps they would never be cheaper.
Do some research and decide.
!

[Beagle]

OCA
MET

Sorry, I don't have 5, that's it.

Add WHS to the list.

[Checkmate]

I believe the market is underestimating NZ's largest Construction Company.
They have had a bad run in recent years yes, but they have been restructuring for the better.
Before Covid came about, they were well on their way to recovery from the major losses in the last few years, and they were even buying back shares.

They have a pretty damn strong balance sheet and they are actually valued at 19% less than their Book Value and just under half of their sales.. Trailing numbers of course.


Recent job cuts that will mitigate most of the weak operating results from Covid.
Before Covid came about, they were well on their way to recovery from the major losses in the last few years, and they were even buying back shares.
I am not sure if they will pay a dividend or not but they haven't exactly stated that they will cancel it... yet.

Just my thoughts, appreciate other insights.