Back in the black

[Baa_Baa]

So how’s it going for you? I dumped a few shares once it became obvious that a serious drop was going to happen, literally in only a few days. What a fast crash It was eh!

So that cash I held aside and topped up building a cash reserve to about 50% of total portfolio now. Some of it I deployed into averaging down some holdings when it became obvious that the bounce had legs.

Today my holdings with their lower cost average hit the black again (still well down from previous highs), this is including dividends. And I’ve got that 50% cash sitting waiting to move when I’m convinced there isn’t second wave or another crash coming, happy even if that wait is quite a while.

I’m feeling pretty chuffed actually to have done a few things at least, be back in the black and have plenty of upside to previous highs, and a stash to deploy where I think it’s safer to do so.

How about you? Got any good news stories how you’ve navigated the rout and in a better position for the future?

[Snow Leopard]

Sounds good Baa Baa, treat yourself to a glass of your favourite as you admire you portfolio balance this evening.

I am doing OK financially as well. I sold a few things on the way down to mid-March but I was very slow recognising that the subsequent recovery was happening big time.
I was expecting/hoping for a long period of low prices. The U instead of the V.

However I have it managed well: during the last few months seven different NZ shares have been my largest holding as I have invested spare cash in various racing certainties.

Today my number one is OCA :cool:

[justakiwi]

My teensy weensy portfolio hardly counts, but ... I sold the very small number of HGH I had, and ventured into OCA too. Today, Sharesight tells me my total return (capital gains + dividends) since first purchase (2016 with KFL) is 21.94% p.a and 11.32% p.a for the current calendar year. My KiwiSaver balance is almost back to where it was pre-lockdown, although my overall return is obviously down (6.86%).

So I’m a happy little camper :)

[iceman]

Been an interesting period that´s for sure. I started selling some such as AIR very early, back in January and then during Feb-March completely rearranged my portfolio with a different focus. Now around 50% of total portfolio in and around food production and rest technology, healthcare,freighting and gentailers plus around 15% cash on a 6 months fixed term deposit since Feb (just so I can not touch it). Was a hard decision to sell completely out of long term holds in great companies such as HLG & HGH, purely based on a decision to exit those sectors. Both have had a good recovery since I sold.
But that fixed term deposit is the only cash I´ve held throughout this crisis, rest has all been reinvested quickly, much of it into a couple of shares on the USX which have done very well but a little concerned how big the portion of my portfolio is now invested in the illiquid USX. But both are intended for very long term hold.

The overall porfolio balance is higher (roughly 15%) than it was at the start of the calendar year. But no time for complacency yet.

[percy]

My teensy weensy portfolio hardly counts, but ... I sold the very small number of HGH I had, and ventured into OCA too. Today, Sharesight tells me my total return (capital gains + dividends) since first purchase (2016 with KFL) is 21.94% p.a and 11.32% p.a for the current calendar year. My KiwiSaver balance is almost back to where it was pre-lockdown, although my overall return is obviously down (6.86%).

So I’m a happy little camper :)

You are going great guns,.!

[justakiwi]

Thank you! :)

To be fair/honest though, KFL is mainly responsible for that return ;)


You are going great guns,.!

[percy]

Roller coaster ride for me.
12th March portfolio..........'''''''''''' ...100 %.
14th May portfolio .down 16.8% to...83,2%
2nd June portfolio well up ..........to 125%. This was an increase of 25% from 12th March and a 50% increase from 14th May.
Still holding the very large cash pile,and am in no hurry to spend it.
So well in the black and holding cash,means I do n't have to do anything.

ps.I include the cash pile in the portfolio figures.

[kiwico]

Today was the day I caught up with where I had been pre Covid-19. I held on far too long to my mainly NZX portfolio but today my cash and shares are back up to my previous high point on 15th Feb. Now only 29% of my share are on the NZX with shares on the ASX now being my largest portfolio. I'm currently 75% in shares and 25% cash and have no idea what my KiwiSaver has done.

[ScrappyO]

For me I haven't sold a single share but actually bought more HGH @.92 then @.96 and $1.01. Vhp @ $2.15, Spk @ $3.95 and ARV @1.10 the others I hold are CNU, IFT, MEL and GNE. As of tonight im about 2-3% off my precovid level.
If HGH had of stayed at its day high I would have been even I recon.

[Beagle]

I am up 24.8% year to date against a backdrop of the NZX50 which is now back to almost exactly where it started the year just over 5 months ago so I feel quite content about that, especially in the context of Covid 19 although one of my character flaws is I am always too hard on myself and expect better. I misjudged the extent of the bounce-back since 23 March and stayed with too much cash, (still over 50%) and am now finding it very difficult to find value in the market. I still don't trust this bounce so am very cautious about deploying cash at present.

I see the fact that the NZX50 is back to its level on 31 December 2019 as a warning that the market is currently not pricing risk and the underlying state of the economy appropriately.

I am never content to rest on my laurels (but that's a new trick I am trying to learn...alas it is hard for an old dog to learn new tricks), as I think there's a lot of cash on the sidelines looking for a home and some people are starting to succumb to FOMO which partially explains why the market is where it is, as does the enormous stimulus the Government have injected into the economy.
I will relentlessly and doggedly try and sniff out opportunities but they are very thin on the ground with the market at the current level.

[clip]

Had been out completely for a number of years due to saving for and subsequently purchasing our first home, and feeling the pinch of adjusting to substantial mortgage repayments. Bought a number of shares around end of march/early april and today topped over 20% returns. Very low capital invested but what I can spare over the mortgage, and a few dividends coming soon.

Mostly in OCA, BLT, small holdings in others and some ETF's but all in positives, pretty happy

[macduffy]

No complaints here. My bank stocks, IFT, AIA, MFT and EBO - my biggest holdings - have all made good/great recoveries from recent lows. I don't calculate percentage moves these days!

:)

[Beagle]

No complaints here. My bank stocks, IFT, AIA, MFT and EBO - my biggest holdings - have all made good/great recoveries from recent lows. I don't calculate percentage moves these days!

:)

Very wise...I thought I had beaten the endless regular habit of feeling the need to update my spreadsheet every week and hadn't for a few weeks but then this thread came along lol

[Blue Skies]

Just looking at NZ50 , the high point was 20 Feb @ 12,085, the low point almost exactly 1 month later 22 March @ 8,495, and today @ 11,222 we are back to where we were on 12 December & trending upwards.

In late March, who would have thought we would have such a fast & strong rebound!
I thought it would take about 5 years to get to this point.

Got thumped in March, but out of 11 shares on NZX, the only share I sold was AIR (out completely) & today am only 2% down from previous high.
Biggest drivers for me have been FPH up & OCA still down - but recovering.

[Gerald]

I am up 24.8% year to date


Hmm, wonder where that come from :)

https://i.imgur.com/JTY1Log.png

[Baa_Baa]

Thanks for posting folks, almost all of my most respected members have already had something to say and all of them are doing well, such is their collective wisdom managing their own affairs, while unselfishly sharing amongst us.

Tbh what I’ve found most challenging is when the chips are really down, we are individually Alone. Us active portfolio managers have no one to really share our story with and we probably trust no one to understand our situation, let alone advise on the decisions we need to make.

I’m encouraged of course to have made some decisions myself which have improved my overall portfolio position, but it is time like this that I realise that being alone, making my own decisions, measuring my own results and performance … it’s hard, it’s really hard.

I do honestly reach out to you all, express my thanks for your diversity of thought and opinions, which shapes my own opinions and actions. I reflect on what more I could have done but didn’t do. But that doesn’t diminish the value of having a bunch of long term good online mates to share ideas with.

We may differ in our opinions at times but collectively we are strong, resolute, decisive … and we act. Thanks, I can’t express it any other way.

Community, support, United goals.

Bless you all, so much appreciated.

[allfromacell]

Anyone else feeling things are a little too euphoric for the stock market? Surely another big drop is on the way at some point, this run has been breathtaking.

Anyway I won't try to time it, my portfolio has also done quite well this year after swapping out my biggest holding A2 milk at around $19 with OCA in March at an average price of $0.52. I'm just going to keep holding along my my other stocks kiwisaver etc.

[Joshuatree]

Yes, ive expressed my feelings on the Dead cat bounce thread re the euphoria developing as the world eases out of lockdown.

I sold down big on the 4th feb keeping gentailers ,FPH,RMD ,Goldies etc. Currently 53% plus in cash NZ,AUS and $US.

My main NZ and Aus portfolio is re 7.5% up this year PLUS divis. Holding so much cash since Feb means i sleep well at night.

I have nibbled at some aus stocks and bought some MET and recently CVT otherwise am very cautious re the road ahead and am prepared to sit on my cash awhile yet and take more profits out of this market too. Happy to protect my assets after a great long bull run.

Something smells rotten about this crazy recovery atpit.It will end with another big downer later this year imo.

[peat]

It will end with another big downer later this year imo.

Thats what my tea leaves say too.... maybe quite soon even.

[kiora]

No complaints here. My bank stocks, IFT, AIA, MFT and EBO - my biggest holdings - have all made good/great recoveries from recent lows. I don't calculate percentage moves these days!

:)

That is a VETERAN portfolio.I suggest the novice part of the name can be dropped well & truely Mr McD

[kiora]

Portfolio of IFT (60% of P/F)& FPH(35.5 %of P/F) + PLX(2.3% of P/F bought recently after saw Hoops buy in & so ran ruler over it for myself) + cash (2% of P/F from dribs & drabs sold beginning Feb when thought China was in the S*#*T big time) now up 5% from previous ATH on 20-2-20
The drop in IFT did make my eyes water for a bit but rationlized that the company will come out of it fine & if I sold at any stage it would likely bounce big time straight after I sold.In hindsight my thoughts are that I would have been better off at least selling 10% when it had dropped 10 % from all time high of around $5.50
My "portfolio" is one I would happily leave a my will as an inheritance with instructions to never sell if I ever I kicked the bucket
SBQ ? is dead wrong about it being hard to make sqillions out of NZ share market.Just need time,patience conviction,compounding returns.I have used a bit of leverage to enhance the returns over the 40 years of investing in the share market.Always good to have a bit of RC available for forward expenses for at least a year is my rule.
I have held IFT since it first floated.Sold them all when IFT warrants came along & reinvested all proceeds in the warrants then converted them to head shares.I brought FPH when it first floated.Half at $4 then doubled down when it dropped to $3.50.Have accumulated more since from DRIP.Sold 2000 last August at $16 when I was looking to pay down a bit of R/C,aaagh!But still no regrets.I am looking to keep the rest.Yes SP might drop in the short term but over long term growing earnings at 15% compounding so happy to leave in my kick the bucket portfolio for the long term.
My investing philosophy is chose the sector/s to invest in then chose the best company in the sector
PS I don't aim to kick the bucket for many years yet :)
I "retired" 15 years before any of my colleagues & try to not make investing a full time job.It is more just a hobby.My share portfolio is now just the more liquid part of a bigger portfolio of Managed funds,farm syndicates & property(not commercial so sleep pretty easy).

[King1212]

Well folks!!!!! Surprise ...surprise ...ehh

My journey is different with u all!

Out of market 2018..2019....as I built a new home...needed the cash and market was too high n kept getting high....kicking myself...sold my ATM but that was okay as new house is more important.

September 2019.... convinced my boss...asked a bit of fund to go back to the market. At the time could not find any bargains. Saw master Beagle on SUM and MET. Decided to follow him... portfolio gained 10%,scored the jackpot.

Then my VGL crashed...loosing all my 10% gain....In Feb...... sold and cut loss all portfolio!....so pissed off...n decided to hedge BBOZ. Gained back 10%

March...all out....as Master Beagle and heaps of veterans here sold out and hold cash.

But bought a bit back a week before lockdown! Damm itttt! My balls were sweating...my arshe was dripping....whole body was smelling on 23rd March.....my initial was to buy and bought on the day like that....but didn't buy any...too scared!!?? My hands was shaking as I looked at the market! wtf!!!!!!

A week after that...after spoke to TJ..back to market..on n off...still very cautious! Will lock in the gain if share gained more than 10%

So far since Sep 2020....gained 30% currently

It could gain more....but...my stomach could not handle it! Lose a lot of sleep sometimes..lol

My kiwisaver already on conservative since 2018..as I saw the market is too high. On 26th March .. switch it to growth fund..4 weeks later gained 10%....decided to switch back to conservative. Not too bad ehh....Will see end of year

That is my story... should write a book about it..lol

[Rossimarnz]

Interesting exercise. Chose to look at returns this calendar year. Overall my portfolio is up 3.08% (including dividends).

I exited the following shares on 2 March - AIR, ARV, HGH, OCA, SUM. Could I have exited earlier, yes, but only really kicking myself about AIR and even then only slightly. I had made good returns on all those shares including the losses from peaks that I crystalised by selling them.

I retained the following shares - ATM, CEN, EBO, IFT, PIL (don't ask, although haven't lost on it during Covid as it was a dog well prior), POT, SCL. The one I sweated on the most was POT with concerns over export volumes through the port. I also retained the following etf's IEM.LSE, SMT.LSE, WWH.LSE

I bought back in a fortnight ago to - OCA, MET, HGH.

Still have about 15% cash which I can see me holding back for a couple of months and I guess in 2 months time a NZ election looms followed shortly after by a US election so in reality this could be held back all year.

[TideMan]

I'm 7.7% up on calendar year and 23% up since last June.
In Jan, I cashed up half my HGH shares and bought a new car.
Everytime I walked past it in the garage during lockdown when HGH dropped below $1, I couldn't help smiling.

Most of my portfolio has accumulated from investing my National Super payments over the last 8 years.
Every month I buy a few more, mainly on the basis of comments by the gurus on this forum.
I'm really grateful to you guys.

[macduffy]

That is a VETERAN portfolio.I suggest the novice part of the name can be dropped well & truely Mr McD

Thanks for the suggestion, kiora, but in my experience it's generally dangerous to consider oneself anything but a novice at this game! As the old Scots saying goes when the weather's good, "we'll pay for it, we'll pay for it!"

[dabsman]

I'm back 24.75% since 1 April 2020. I think a good company is a good company - much like form is temporary class is permanent type argument. OCA as an example I sold for $1.023 on March 9. Have bought back 70% more than my original holdings for the same amount of capital and I'm now sitting at a 40% return. A sort of cancelled export order on shares - all must go - 2 for 1 sale - free ginsu knives. I did realise how emotionally invested I can become with my holdings. I got to a really really bad place before I pushed the sell button then sold nearly everything in about 15 mins. A few thousand in brokerage is like an insurance premium in the end.

[Skene]

Relatively new to investing myself but I'm up 34.11% in the ~18 months I've been active of which 20.21% is this calendar year.

I decided not to exit at all but took advantage of low prices to bring my average buy down in existing holdings. BLT & PLX are my hero holdings and also my initial investments.

[King1212]

Yes JT ....my capital increases 30% since Sep 2020....my gain so far 30%

U might think I am bluffing eh....

[Joshuatree]

Still doesnt make sense you crazy nutcase:). We havnt got to sep 2020 yet, you mean Sep 2019?

[King1212]

Oh yeah ..last year...sep 2019....my bad...too much tui eh

[tommy_d]

I see the fact that the NZX50 is back to its level on 31 December 2019 as a warning that the market is currently not pricing risk and the underlying state of the economy appropriately.l.
fundamentally agree, favourite examples are watching CVT, AIR, and KMD. Still think CO2 is massively undervalued, although it seems to be correcting.
suggest that there are trading - rather than investment - gains to be made though...

[tommy_d]

I have nibbled at some aus stocks and bought some MET and recently CVT

what are your views on my post on hive and inventory valuation in the CVT thread?

[clip]

fundamentally agree, favourite examples are watching CVT, AIR, and KMD. Still think CO2 is massively undervalued, although it seems to be correcting.
suggest that there are trading - rather than investment - gains to be made though...

CO2 likely moving due to recent developments finally - recommend subscribing to the Carbon Match newsletter for good summaries of news. Last update June 4th:

NZU Update

So far it has been an exciting week for sellers. Carbon Match had reasonable volume move through yesterday up to the $27.50 mark before the action stopped - buyers and sellers are still feeling their way a little and the bid-ask spread had widened to about $1 cf our more usual 10-15 cents.

While that is to be expected in the wake of about 500 pages of new reading material, we now need both buyers and sellers alike to take a view, share that view on screen and contribute to the price discovery that is so important as we move towards what is a whole new basis for this market.

Many buyers, having handed in units only last week under the $25 FPO setting, now need to buy, with the $35 fixed price option both a motivator and a simple backstop.

While the asking prices at these new much higher levels might initially seem confronting to buyers, obviously the $35 is a mark that has lifted the horizon and refocused the minds of natural sellers.

Yes there is no guarantee that the price will necessarily get there ahead of next year but there is also no question that these announcements, once formally legislated, will serve up a new normal for carbon over the coming months, at least until auctions begin.

With the first of these is set to be 17 March 2021 - i.e. before the end May compliance deadline, we expect that as we move through the next 9 months, attention will focus increasingly on those and their progress - some 19 million tonnes is planned to be auctioned across the four auctions scheduled for 2021.

19 million is going to be a very significant weight in a compliance market that is only approximately 40 million tonnes, (or less due to the impacts of Covid-19) and even more if you adjust for the 8 million expected to be given / received from the EITE folks - leaving demand net of that of not more than perhaps 32 million, and again, on a Covid-unadjusted basis.

Still, the auctions are a while off, and there's understandably a new optimism on the sell side and if you don't ask you won't get.

So to reiterate - can we please encourage buyers and sellers to take a view, get on screen and contribute to price discovery so we can go from there.

Carbon Match - 1pm-5pm every weekday.

[peat]

I whipped up a chart
so yeh Back in the black and nearly back to high point pre corona
11659

[tommy_d]

recommend subscribing to the Carbon Match newsletter for good summaries of news. Last update June 4th
could also just watch the boards on the underlying instrument on commtrade or carbonmatch markets rather than wait for an email eh...

[nztx]

Yes significant swing from the very bottom -1100K to 172K positive at week end

Net Recovery now fully offsets fees, write-offs, gross returns and net realised losses into positive territory for first times in weeks across the 3 months

Possibly more real recovery due in some areas in future, with rebalancing into Retail & Banking starting to bounce, & having realised some of the smaller riskier fish applying into more solid runners for next section of the ride up out the other side of the Covid-19 gully..

[clip]

could also just watch the boards on the underlying instrument on commtrade or carbonmatch markets rather than wait for an email eh...

The email gives a lot more info than just the price of carbon credits

[Cyclical]

Been a crazy ride alright and really not what I was expecting. Was fortunate enough not to have anything in the market leading up to March and have been steadily climbing back in since, with the amount of invested capital injected in having doubled through April/May, so depending on how you look at it, somewhere between a 30-45% gain.

Despite that, I still feel a little disappointed I didn't hold onto positions that I traded out of which have subsequently raced higher, and that my Kiwisaver is still in a cash fund...what to do? As above, I wasn't expecting this kind of recovery, but if it looks like a V and smells like a V, then it's probably a big fat V.

I've got an internal battle going on right now, with my head still saying things are going to drift lower and it's going to be a tough couple of years or so. But how much longer before this rapid recovery runs out of puff? And what percentage of gains are we likely to still see in that time? And when it does stop, what's going to happen?

Despite the crazy rise, I don't think we'll see another crash, as too many people have just seen one and now have expectations about what's out the other side (another huge and swift recovery) and consequently massive applications of FOMO related cash...so that scenario seems unlikely.

So I'm thinking the more likely scenario post this current run is for the markets to still drift lower, or maybe just be flat for a lengthy period (x years) to allow for reality to catch up.

Given the above, I'm tending towards throwing the Kiwisaver at it to catch what's left of this run (it could be 20+% for all I know) and if we drift lower over the next couple of years, then am I likely to lose that 20%? Probably not, given the amount of gov/fed helicopter money and traditional depositor money looking for yield. If I have real concerns, then I guess I can put the KS back into a cash fund later. I need to remind myself of course that this KS is long term and I shouldn't get too caught up in the short term outlook...that short term thinking has already cost me dearly over the last couple of years. Onwards and upwards.