Geo Political Risk

[Sgt Pepper]

There is a significant risk to the economy, apart from COVID which could occur in October or November. China may take a calculated risk and finally resolve its long standing claim on Taiwan and annex it . Should this occur, they may believe that, with the current inept leadership of Donald Trump that no meaningful response from the USA would be forthcoming. If this occurs trade with China, would come to a standstill. New Zealand exports would be severely impacted, the NZ dollar would plummet. The risk of this happening is, I believe, much higher than we may think

[Marilyn Munroe]

All that needs to be done is send President Xi a biography of General Galtieri a former fellow despot who used foreign quarrels to busy giddy minds.

He needs to read the Wikipedia page on the "Highway of Death" battle of the Gulf War to understand what happens to dictators who gravitate from being beastly to his fellow citizens to being beastly to other countries and makes the Americans cross.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[peat]

It may happen, I wont rule it out completely (that China annexes Taiwan soon) but I personally don't think its at that stage just yet. China has a lot of geopolitical tensions these days and I think they will stagger their way through them successively.
It is probable that tensions will rise in the lead up to the US elections, but I would think that China will wait to see if Trump is re-elected , or who else they have to deal with before taking any seriously confrontational military action.

But I also think that if they push him Trump might retaliate whereas your view was that he wouldn't do so, so we clearly have different ways of seeing things.

[Davexl]

I also believe that an even bigger risk may come from a miscalculation to do with China's actions on the South China Sea. There is talk that China may shortly declare an Air Defence Identification Zone, a further step to them after setting up 2 Administrative Zones recently, cementing their illegal claim under previous UNCLOS determinations, to the South China Sea via their nine-dash border line. These actions have frightened Australia this month into upping their 10 year defence budgets by 40% ! - and they have announced they are buying long range Air, Sea and Ground launched missiles off the US Navy initially to extend their offensive capability. NZ could be drawn into a war against China at almost any time with the tensions between China and the US rapidly escalating. Of course NZ is basically defenceless with no Air Strike Wing and only 2 frigates, poorly armed and basically cannon fodder in a naval contest. Of course we would be in a US or Australian led squadron but that is small comfort.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12344494

(https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12344494)https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/us-china-inch-closer-towards-a-conflict-at-sea/

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australias-new-defence-paradigm/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20The%20Strategist&utm_content=Daily%20The%20Strategist+CID_5e0592737 f42073ff9c375f21e3e6c7b&utm_source=CampaignMonitor&utm_term=Australias%20new%20defence%20paradigm (https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/us-china-inch-closer-towards-a-conflict-at-sea/)

[MarineSalvage]

Relax- NZ will not be wanted in any squadron - our Navy would be a liability. Previously we had just been asked to do patrolling in unrelated areas to allow US/UK etc to send better equipped ships to action
I also believe that an even bigger risk may come from a miscalculation to do with China's actions on the South China Sea. There is talk that China may shortly declare an Air Defence Identification Zone, a further step to them after setting up 2 Administrative Zones recently, cementing their illegal claim under previous UNCLOS determinations, to the South China Sea via their nine-dash border line. These actions have frightened Australia this month into upping their 10 year defence budgets by 40% ! - and they have announced they are buying long range Air, Sea and Ground launched missiles off the US Navy initially to extend their offensive capability. NZ could be drawn into a war against China at almost any time with the tensions between China and the US rapidly escalating. Of course NZ is basically defenceless with no Air Strike Wing and only 2 frigates, poorly armed and basically cannon fodder in a naval contest. Of course we would be in a US or Australian led squadron but that is small comfort.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12344494

[Jaa]

Extremely unlikely that China would try to force the Taiwan issue by armed force anytime soon. The communist party values internal peace and harmony above all else and for good reason. A humiliating loss would as Marilyn alludes to bring the downfall of the regime. As could a major economic recession. China like much of the world has got used to endless growth.

The time for appeasement of the CCP is however over. The CCP under Xi is a very different beast to the party under previous leaders, authoritarian, rule-breaking, aggressive and anti-foreigner. The 10 year transition of power since removed by now dictator Xi used to work relatively well in diffusing and regularly transferring power. Now all look to Xi with all the problems that entails, COVID-19 just one devastating example.

Another bad mistake Xi has made is breaking the Hong Kong agreement and imposing their internal security apparatus upon it. No one will trust them now and the HKers will not go quietly into the night. Unlike Tibetans that were victims of an earlier CCP takeover, HKers are highly educated and integrated into the global community and China itself.

Previous CCP leaders would simply have waited the remaining 26 years for the HK agreement to lapse. Strategic patience used to be a great Chinese asset. Xi's impatience sadly will bring more mistakes. A much wiser Chinese leader said it best:


China is not a superpower, nor will she ever seek to be one... If one day China should change her color and turn into a superpower, if she too should play the tyrant in the world, and everywhere subject others to her bullying, aggression and exploitation, the people of the world should identify her as social-imperialist, expose it, oppose it and work together with the Chinese people to overthrow it.

- Deng Xiaoping

[dibble]

Deng Xiaoping also introduced the limited term to ensure the focus was on the party and country rather than the leader. Or words to that effect. And look what's Xi has done.
Its unlikely they have invested all that money in South China Sea to not reap a reward. That said they are (probably) too smart to provoke war. They may just pick their time to deepen their interests there....perhaps now while US and UK are weak and Aus still relies on China to buy its rather limited range of exports. Taiwan is indeed an interesting beast though, they have serious weaponry (unlike HK).

[jonu]

Interesting posts dibble and Jaa.

China has historically played a very long game. The last 20 years has seen China incrementally adopt Western Capitalism to suit its own purposes, but at some point (perhaps already reached) it will be difficult to control the cultural changes that flow from it.

[macduffy]

An interesting thread but shouldn't it be in the Off Market Discussions forum, rather than the NZX forum which is for instruments listed on the NZX.

[Zaphod]

Deng Xiaoping also introduced the limited term to ensure the focus was on the party and country rather than the leader. Or words to that effect. And look what's Xi has done.
Its unlikely they have invested all that money in South China Sea to not reap a reward. That said they are (probably) too smart to provoke war. They may just pick their time to deepen their interests there....perhaps now while US and UK are weak and Aus still relies on China to buy its rather limited range of exports. Taiwan is indeed an interesting beast though, they have serious weaponry (unlike HK).

While playing these games, China is also heavily involved in building enduring relationships with other nation-states via trade and the supply of aid. They are also investing heavily in military campaigns in the cyber realm, however they may be spreading themselves too thin.

[dibble]

While playing these games, China is also heavily involved in building enduring relationships with other nation-states via trade and the supply of aid.

True. They are also quietly "buying" votes on various international forums/fora (UN etc), usually linked to trade and aid, and doing a pretty good job of getting their way without too much bother.

Agree with Macduffy though, not really the right place for the thread. Is it possible to move a thread??

[Sgt Pepper]

True. They are also quietly "buying" votes on various international forums/fora (UN etc), usually linked to trade and aid, and doing a pretty good job of getting their way without too much bother.

Agree with Macduffy though, not really the right place for the thread. Is it possible to move a thread??

It may not be the right forum, however a sudden conflict involving China and Taiwan would definitely impact the NZX do you not think??

[Panda-NZ-]

I'm hearing things though the grapevine that the australian economy is going to be in difficulty soon. They started a trade war with china a few months ago and the second covid lockdown in Victoria is an added challenge for them.

Our main risk is to do with trade and hopefully we can do more of the digital services exports in the US/Europe. food is something everyone needs and our competition is mainly in south america this time of year which is doing poorly. Premium prices for our food exports maybe?

[kiwidollabill]

I'm hearing things though the grapevine that the australian economy is going to be in difficulty soon. They started a trade war with china a few months ago and the second covid lockdown in victoria is an added challenge for them.

Our main risk is to do with trade and hopefully we can do more of the digital services exports in the US/Europe. food is something everyone needs and our competition is mainly in south america this time of year which is doing poorly. Premium prices for our food exports maybe?

Sure are... some pretty strong retoric coming out against the Ozzies.

China were going to impose additional 'inspections' on every ship of iron ore, likely a move to covertly play the trade war game. They pulled back when COVID starting to hit Brazil, at the momment they need ozzy for the ore (but expect that to change). At the moment they dont have an alternative trade partner to coking coal (neither India nor the US would be interested in selling to them). Find some big reserves in Africa and they're in real trouble...

[Jaa]

I'm hearing things though the grapevine that the australian economy is going to be in difficulty soon. They started a trade war with china a few months ago and the second covid lockdown in Victoria is an added challenge for them.

Australia didn't start a trade war, they called for an international investigation into the origins of COVID-19. Something that could save 100,000s of lives. This is standard practice anywhere else in the world but such an investigation would show up at the very least the incompetency of CCP rule.

China responded with its now typical "glass heart" petulance with a cyber-attack and the kind of non-tariff trade barriers they specialise in. e.g. increased inspections, delayed permits, delayed/cancelled orders, pressure on Australian citizens in China etc. They have done this with NZ too in the past with our milk exports, turning boats around in mid ocean and other nonsense. Time for the world to require free trade reciprocity with China.

Such petulance and tone-deafness was also on display in their harassment of and forced quarantine of African citizens in Guangdong and criticism of the French public health response to COVID-19 and is losing China any support and friends it once had.

I have even heard calls for a "Made in the Free World" campaign.

[Davexl]

Something that arrived in my inbox that people might be interested in:

The CSIS Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative are pleased to present the Tenth Annual South China Sea Conference: Keynote and Session One on Tuesday, July 14, 2020. This monthly webinar series will provide opportunities for in-depth discussion and analysis of developments in the South China Sea over the past year and potential paths forward. This session will feature a keynote address by Assistant Secretary of State David R. Stilwell, followed by a panel discussion on the state of play in the South China Sea in 2020.


https://mailchi.mp/csis.org/webinar-invitation-tenth-annual-south-china-sea-conference-keynote-and-session-one-1920082?e=11d5ef38a9

Also something potentially major from the US on the South China Sea situation to take notice of this week:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/u-s-plans-south-china-sea-announcement-with-tensions-escalating

or if you can't access it try this: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/07/11/asia-pacific/us-south-china-sea-announcement/#.XwuoVeexVPY

Cheers people...

[GTM 3442]

Fortifying the South China Sea allows China to cut oil supplies to South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan at will. It also denies the US effective use of the Philippines as a military base for aerial operations against China.

Effectively, China is militarily securing it's eastern borders thus facilitating its westward orientation.

[Davexl]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/14/south-china-sea-us-says-beijings-claims-to-disputed-area-completely-unlawful

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-maritime/u-s-rejects-chinas-claims-in-south-china-sea-adding-to-tensions-idUSKCN24E2OU (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/14/south-china-sea-us-says-beijings-claims-to-disputed-area-completely-unlawful)

South China Sea-US says Beijings claims to disputed area Completely-Unlawful

Now that the US has formally taken sides with ASEANs recent statements on the South China Sea, watch the tensions ratchet up even further

Also this day: https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/philippines-calls-out-china-on-the-south-china-sea/ the Philippines reiterates its 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling at The Hague against its (China's) expansive claims to the South China Sea

And Japan confirms the same issue: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-defence-whitepaper/japan-accuses-china-of-pushing-territorial-claims-during-coronavirus-pandemic-idUSKCN24F040

while the US confirms it is "in business" still despite Coronavirus and not intimidated by Chinas threats against its carriers:
https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/us-navy-not-intimidated-by-china-carrier-killer-threat/

[Onion]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/14/south-china-sea-us-says-beijings-claims-to-disputed-area-completely-unlawful

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-maritime/u-s-rejects-chinas-claims-in-south-china-sea-adding-to-tensions-idUSKCN24E2OU (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/14/south-china-sea-us-says-beijings-claims-to-disputed-area-completely-unlawful)

South China Sea-US says Beijings claims to disputed area Completely-Unlawful

Now that the US has formally taken sides with ASEANs recent statements on the South China Sea, watch the tensions ratchet up even further

I’m not a fan of sabre rattling, but I think the world has been sitting on its hands while China has been thrusting its influence in to many parts of the globe. If China wants to be a world player then it should be held to account.

An interesting podcast that discusses America’s “too trusting” stance is available here: https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-china/

[Jaa]

I have always seen the CCP's ridiculous and entirely fictional nine dash line as something similar to Imperial Japan's Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere in the 1930s. There's an oily reason why it dips so close to the Bruneian and Malaysian coasts.

[GTM 3442]

I have always seen the CCP's ridiculous and entirely fictional nine dash line as something similar to Imperial Japan's Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere in the 1930s. There's an oily reason why it dips so close to the Bruneian and Malaysian coasts.

Just wait until you see the twelve-dash line!

In the meantime, think you'll find that China's Russian dependency will provide all the necessary hydrocarbons.

[Davexl]

US issues specific Scarborough Shoal (Red line) warning to China...


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-southchinasea-stilwell/u-s-says-room-for-sanctions-in-response-to-china-in-south-china-sea-idUSKCN24F1TB

(https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-southchinasea-stilwell/u-s-says-room-for-sanctions-in-response-to-china-in-south-china-sea-idUSKCN24F1TB)
A restatement of US policies for specific shoals based on UNCLOS ruling, and a specific warning on Chinese-govt mandated use of Maritime Militias against eg Philippine interests
(https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-southchinasea-stilwell/u-s-says-room-for-sanctions-in-response-to-china-in-south-china-sea-idUSKCN24F1TB)

https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/us-picks-a-fight-with-china-in-south-china-sea/ (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-southchinasea-stilwell/u-s-says-room-for-sanctions-in-response-to-china-in-south-china-sea-idUSKCN24F1TB)

[kiwidollabill]

The global apparel sector is in the gun over this... may impact some ANZ retailers.

https://apnews.com/be1bb61ae7876bf3801489917b20584c

[Davexl]

An easily accessible summary of the updated geostrategic situation with the South China Sea.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/front-page-top-stories/news/article.cfm?c_id=698&objectid=12349105&ref=rss&utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=nznewsrss&utm_campaign=NZH%20Topnews&utm_content=tdtb&tblci=GiC8LHXVjkdQtSEbAH6A-WfKL5_EGKMt_j3SBf_N09BVZyD3pUk#tblciGiC8LHXVjkdQtS EbAH6A-WfKL5_EGKMt_j3SBf_N09BVZyD3pUk

[greater fool]

UNCLOS claims and (international) rule of law. Here's a bad actor;

https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-s-dirty-secret-and-the-trial-too-sensitive-for-an-open-court-20200715-p55c6a.html

Meanwhile, Australia persists in it's illegal EEZ claims based on Australian Antarctica Territory.

[Panda-NZ-]

Australia is going downhill in more ways than one it seems :(

[greater fool]

Australia is going downhill in more ways than one it seems :(


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-21/australian-sas-soldiers-killed-the-wrong-afghan-man/12472478

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-15/sas-soldiers-allegedly-plant-gun-on-dead-bodies-in-afghanistan/12452964

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-27/soldiers-say-they-saw-sas-operative-killing-another-civilian/12277976

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/four-corners-sas-allegations-war-crimes/12028522?nw=0

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-16/video-shows-afghan-man-shot-at-close-range-by-australian-sas/12028512

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-11/killings-of-unarmed-afghans-by-australian-special-forces/8466642?nw=0

[Phant]

Recent issues at the Three Gorges will have highlighted to small neighbouring countries that you don't have to be a member of the nuclear club to have the ability to respond to a belligerent China. That dam is a massive Sword of Damocles hanging over Eastern China.

[Davexl]

This is how China behaves on the international stage. It breaches its 50 year obligations on Hong Kong's autonomy, then when Britain responds mildly, and supports Hong Kong citizens, it issues THREATS against free nations.

It actually thinks its THREATS can control free nations, who are free to express opinions and take actions independently of failed Totalitarian states like the CCP-dictated Communist China regime. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/21/uk-will-bear-the-consequences-for-hong-kong-decision-china-warns

Similarly in the South China Sea, it has built artificial islands and OUTRIGHT LIED to President Obama claiming they would not be militarised and then DID THE OPPOSITE!

China AS A FULL SIGNATORY to UNCLOS, then ignored the 2016 Arbitral ruling at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague calling it "WASTE PAPER", further demonstrating its total ARROGANCE and DISREGARD for International Law. https://amti.csis.org/failing-or-incomplete-grading-the-south-china-sea-arbitration

I personally hope the citizens of Hong Kong can rise up and throw off the authoritarian shackles of their CCP oppressors and that Taiwan as a SOVEREIGN NATION STATE can rejoin the World Health Organisation and defend its National Independence against the Chinese Thuggish regime.

ASEAN and the Free World is now FULLY AWAKE to the Chinese Threat to Peace in the World, of Internationally Law Abiding Nations...

And finally, and most despicably, we have echos of 1930's Germany reprised in the year 2020 https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12349835

[Lewylewylewy]

The West is weak. China knows this. That's why they're doing it the way they are.

[dibble]

... the World, of Internationally Law Abiding Nations...




How quickly we forget the invasion of Iraq, despite the very visible ongoing consequences. And Im not sure peace based on Mutually Assured Destruction makes people sleep better than than a show of bravado in the Pacific.
Of course they lied. Its what they do. Its what all dictators do to keep power. Very effective tool too. For all politicians politicians for that matter, Trump has surpassed 20,000 and Boris is giving it his best shot.
Yes China is a growing danger to peace and, moreso, the environment but letting big business dictate govt policy like in the US has hardly resulted in a wonderful world. They dont have a load of warships (mobile militarised Islands) in the Middle East because they care about Kurds being called names.

Great irony of recent times is that evil Germany has emerged as the only major power to have any deep leadership credibility. If the atomic button was under Mutti's thumb instead of that illiterate idiot's in disUSA I suspect a lot of people would feel happier.

Google CLOs, bigger threat of them bringing down the global banking system courtesy of USA than China's human rights abuses.

[Ahgong]

How quickly we forget the invasion of Iraq, despite the very visible ongoing consequences. And Im not sure peace based on Mutually Assured Destruction makes people sleep better than than a show of bravado in the Pacific.
Of course they lied. Its what they do. Its what all dictators do to keep power. Very effective tool too. For all politicians politicians for that matter, Trump has surpassed 20,000 and Boris is giving it his best shot.
Yes China is a growing danger to peace and, moreso, the environment but letting big business dictate govt policy like in the US has hardly resulted in a wonderful world. They dont have a load of warships (mobile militarised Islands) in the Middle East because they care about Kurds being called names.

Great irony of recent times is that evil Germany has emerged as the only major power to have any deep leadership credibility. If the atomic button was under Mutti's thumb instead of that illiterate idiot's in disUSA I suspect a lot of people would feel happier.

Google CLOs, bigger threat of them bringing down the global banking system courtesy of USA than China's human rights abuses.

By - Dr Dennis Etler, Professor of Anthropology, UC Berkeley.CA. 8•7•2020

‘As I See It:
When the US invades and occupies other nations, killing and wounding millions it's always done in pursuit of its "national security." It seems the US can do so with impunity.

But when China invokes national security to quell foreign supported insurrection in its own territory it is censured and sanctions are imposed.

When the US bans Chinese apps and social media it is done in the name of national security. When China bans US social media to protect its national security it's an infringement of freedom and free market access.

When the US jails dissidents like Chelsea Manning it's done in the name of national security. When China detains a dissident it's a violation of human rights.

When the US oppresses its minorities it's excused as a flaw that needs to be addressed after centuries of neglect. Any resistance by the oppressed is seen as a threat to national security. When China seeks to alleviate the poverty of its minorities it is called genocide.

When the US spends hundreds of billions of dollars on its war budget it's done in the name of national security. When China builds up its defense forces it's called aggression.

It seems that the US can do as it pleases in the name of it's own national security but China has no right to do the same.’

- Dr Dennis Etler,
Professor of Anthropology, UC Berkeley 8•7•2020

[Davexl]

The Geo Political Risks are real people, you better start factoring them in whether you like it or not.

US & UK Discuss Plans for Coalition to Resist China

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-21/u-s-and-u-k-discuss-plans-for-coalition-to-resist-china

[greater fool]

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/22/politics/china-us-houston-consulate-intl-hnk/index.html

Yes! :t_up: GO Trumpet. :eek2: What an opportunity. :t_up:

Hopefully China will retaliate by ordering ALL American facilities in Hong Kong close in 72 hours.
Will get rid of thousands of American spies and military people, and they will have a very, very difficult
job smashing up all the equipment before time runs out.

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3086832/us-government-invites-bids-six-multibillion-dollar-hong-kong-mansions-even

[Davexl]

Why is Xi Jinping pitting China against the world? An attempt to understand the dynamics of the last 2 months activities:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/23/chinas-actions-are-a-reflection-of-confidence-and-xi-jinpings-iron-grip

[Davexl]

China's attempt to re-establish good relations with the Phillipines, after US statement of China's South China Sea claims being illegal...

China bids to win back the Philippines

https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/china-bids-to-win-back-the-philippines/

[Davexl]

Vietnam in a quandary over its future energy needs, and Chinese pressure to shut down exploration

Oil and gas fueling South China Sea tensions

https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/oil-and-gas-fueling-south-china-sea-tensions/

[GTM 3442]

Worth a listen.

Gives some idea of how the US seems intent on backing itself into a corner.

https://thediplomat.com/2020/07/making-sense-of-the-2020-us-south-china-sea-policy-update/

[Davexl]

Worth a listen.

Gives some idea of how the US seems intent on backing itself into a corner.

https://thediplomat.com/2020/07/making-sense-of-the-2020-us-south-china-sea-policy-update/

Thanks for pointing this site out GTM

Found this also about our Five-Eyes status and high-wire balancing act by Anne-Marie Brady

https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/new-zealands-quiet-china-shift/

[Davexl]

Australia has made its situation clear, what will NZ decide to say & do ? Both its frigates are in Canada undergoing refit...

South China Sea: Australian warships join US, Japanese in Chinese confrontation

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12350977

[Davexl]

Officials Push U.S.-China Relations Toward Point of No Return

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/25/world/asia/us-china-trump-xi.html

[GTM 3442]

Australia has made its situation clear, what will NZ decide to say & do ? Both its frigates are in Canada undergoing refit...

South China Sea: Australian warships join US, Japanese in Chinese confrontation

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12350977


President Trump will no more go to war with China over the Spratlys or Scarborough Shoal than President Eisenhower would go to war with China over Quemoy and Matsu.

In this case, what the US position does demonstrate is that the current US administration does not understand that diplomacy involves the carrot and the stick. An understanding which seems to elude them in other geographies as well.

[Davexl]

President Trump will no more go to war with China over the Spratlys or Scarborough Shoal than President Eisenhower would go to war with China over Quemoy and Matsu.

In this case, what the US position does demonstrate is that the current US administration does not understand that diplomacy involves the carrot and the stick. An understanding which seems to elude them in other geographies as well.

I wish I understood better how well President Trump's decisions have been isolated from better decision making further down the hierarchy also. If not over the South China Sea, what about Taiwan, the Phillipines & Japan for which I understand there are formal agreements?

Also could part of the calculus be that if war in the future is deemed almost inevitable, better for the US to provoke something earlier that is winnable, whereas China would want to defer the challenge until they are stronger? Or do both parties understand that the level of economic coupling is so great at this point that it's lose-lose in any case?

[GTM 3442]

<snip>

Also could part of the calculus be that if war in the future is deemed almost inevitable, better for the US to provoke something earlier that is winnable, whereas China would want to defer the challenge until they are stronger? Or do both parties understand that the level of economic coupling is so great at this point that it's lose-lose in any case?

Wars are fought by the military, but they are started and ended by politicians.

What would a US military victory over China entail? What would the US war aims be? How would the US know if they had achieved those aims?

[GTM 3442]

Just a passing thought. . .


https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/07/theres-bigger-threat-big-tech-its-big-china/167187/?oref=d-topstory

[kiora]

Just a passing thought. . .


https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/07/theres-bigger-threat-big-tech-its-big-china/167187/?oref=d-topstory

Phew,the other silk road?

[Zaphod]

Just a passing thought. . .


https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/07/theres-bigger-threat-big-tech-its-big-china/167187/?oref=d-topstory

The situation isn't quite a binary as the article implies with western Facebook messager good, eastern WeChat bad. While the west needs to establish its own technology solution stack, this needs to be constructed with some degree of checks and balances, as well as security baked in from the start. The west is not immune from over-reach.

China has also embarked on the implementation of proprietary technologies (supplying some of these to NK), essentially locking the west out. This may be an attempt at security through obscurity, but if fraught with risk.

Interesting article. Thanks for posting the link.

[Davexl]

Just a passing thought. . .


https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/07/theres-bigger-threat-big-tech-its-big-china/167187/?oref=d-topstory

The current record of the US is not so promising...

It has failed to put together an Enterprise scale offering of its own for 5G communications, thus choosing to tear down Huawei, chosen as acceptable for use in the Radio Access Network components by the UK and NZ until vetoed recently by the UK and by GCSB in NZ under US pressure last year. So much for fair competition!

Intel has failed to maintain its leadership in chip fabrication and outsources to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, and Samsung, itself a strategic risk, as far as Taiwan goes anyway. The US Govt has completely failed to get Intel onboard strategically https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/intel-is-making-a-mockery-of-reshoring/

It appears to be losing its edge in Quantum Computing, which will render all current security key systems obsolete for Commerce & the Military within the next 5-10 years. https://www.computerworld.com/article/3064622/quantum-computers-pose-a-huge-threat-to-security-and-the-nist-wants-your-help.html

And it has no large scale technology in place to produce Rare Earth elements critical in Defence applications and the modern technological world. It is totally dependant on China, which has recently threatened Lockheed Martin over supply. Australia's Lynas is the only other skilled manufacturing and mineral resource outside of China and has only recently been recognised as strategic to US needs.

eg "Lynas shares jump 10% on US defence contract" - 27 Jul 20

By Colin Kruger Sydney Morning Herald

Rare earths group Lynas Corp (ASX:LYC) said it has now signed a contract with the US Department of Defence for Phase 1 funding of its proposed rare earths processing operations in Texas.

The funding will cover the design and planning of its proposed heavy rare earths processing plant and the company said it expects the work to be finished in the current financial year.

“We are very pleased to signed a contract with the DoD for this Phase 1 work,” said Lynas chief executive Amanda Lacaze.

Shares in the firm were up 10.1 per cent at a more than seven-month high $2.39 by 10.45am.

Last week, Lynas declined to comment on reports that the US DoD had resumed preliminary funding for the company's proposed rare earths processing plant in Texas following an independent review.

The review was triggered by US politicians, led by US Republican Senator and former presidential candidate Ted Cruz, who wanted to ensure that the entire supply chain for rare earths remains in US hands.

Lynas first proposed to build a facility in the US in May last year to separate medium and heavy rare earths elements in Texas. The US Department of Defence later announced its proposal to fund rare earths processing in the US to strengthen the supply chain for the critical ores.

Lynas extracts these rare earth ores -17 elements crucial to the manufacture of many hi-tech products such as mobile phones, electric cars and wind turbines - from a mine near Perth and currently sends the materials to a facility in Malaysia for processing.

Ord Minnett analyst Dylan Kelly said the news last week that the DoD was restarting funding should come as no surprise given China threatening rare earth supply to US defence contractor Lockheed Martin.

While the practical impact of sanctions is expected to be limited, Mr Kelly said it could “potentially spark a political and defence crisis” and highlight the strategic value of Lynas which is the only significant producer of rare earths outside of China.

I mean SERIOUSLY...!!

The US really needs to get its sh*t together strategically speaking, and learn how to work with the private sector, and vice versa. Covid has helped uncover this.

Speaking of which the fightback for US's Technology & Manufacturing begins: includes Webinar, "Can US Manufacturing make a Comeback?"

https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/webinar-video-can-us-manufacturing-make-a-comeback/

[Davexl]

Originally Posted by Davexl

Also could part of the calculus be that if war in the future is deemed almost inevitable, better for the US to provoke something earlier that is winnable, whereas China would want to defer the challenge until they are stronger? Or do both parties understand that the level of economic coupling is so great at this point that it's lose-lose in any case?



Wars are fought by the military, but they are started and ended by politicians.

What would a US military victory over China entail? What would the US war aims be? How would the US know if they had achieved those aims?

Neutralising China's paramilitary forces from occupying littoral states EEZ's, Affirming the standing of UNCLOS international law, China's CCP pulling its head in.

[Ahgong]

Originally Posted by Davexl

Also could part of the calculus be that if war in the future is deemed almost inevitable, better for the US to provoke something earlier that is winnable, whereas China would want to defer the challenge until they are stronger? Or do both parties understand that the level of economic coupling is so great at this point that it's lose-lose in any case?




Neutralising China's paramilitary forces from occupying littoral states EEZ's, Affirming the standing of UNCLOS international law, China's CCP pulling its head in.

Has the Trump Administration any credibility left, especially its foreign secretary: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/26/forget-putin-its-meddling-by-americas-evangelical-enforcer-that-should-scare-us

Also, Pompeo is on the record about lying, cheating and stealing while in the CIA;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RmEsPE7iq0

[GTM 3442]

Originally Posted by Davexl

<snip>


Neutralising China's paramilitary forces from occupying littoral states EEZ's, Affirming the standing of UNCLOS international law, China's CCP pulling its head in.

So if the current US administration were, in the pursuit of re-election and internal political objectives, to go to war with China what would be a set of realistic military objectives for the US military?

That was always the question which bedevilled NATO for decades. Would the USA really "push the button" for Denmark? And today, would the USA really "push the button" for Vietnam?

The USA has spent decades not ratifying UNCLOS. Will it really "push the button" on behalf of an agreement that it is not, strictly speaking, a part of?

In practical, concrete terms, what would "China pulling it's head in" actually involve? Who would define the head-pulling? Who would monitor the head-pulling? What sanctions would apply if the head were not pulled far or fast enough?

[Davexl]

So if the current US administration were, in the pursuit of re-election and internal political objectives, to go to war with China what would be a set of realistic military objectives for the US military?

That was always the question which bedevilled NATO for decades. Would the USA really "push the button" for Denmark? And today, would the USA really "push the button" for Vietnam?

The USA has spent decades not ratifying UNCLOS. Will it really "push the button" on behalf of an agreement that it is not, strictly speaking, a part of?

In practical, concrete terms, what would "China pulling it's head in" actually involve? Who would define the head-pulling? Who would monitor the head-pulling? What sanctions would apply if the head were not pulled far or fast enough?

I doubt any 'regime' whether Trump's or Xi's would want to "push any buttons" for say Vietnam or the Philippines. I would imagine some kind of limited exchange, inflicting a kind of "bloody nose" on China to help counter the grey zone tactics that China employs with its maritime militias for example.

Since the re-engagement of the Philippines with its long term military agreement with the US and re assertion of its 2016 Arbitration result, and with Vietnam onside with the US as Chairman also of ASEAN, and ASEANs strong statements repudiating China 'sovereign' rights over the bulk of the South China Sea - the US has significantly stepped up and become much more assertive in taking the battle of wills to China.

What happens as a result of this is way above my pay-grade, but we have seen how quickly the situation has deteriorated over Hong Kong for example and even today in NZ, China has angrily denounced us after NZ formally withdraws from our extradition treaty with Hong Kong.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12351738

Will it affect our trade, affect Fonterra or A2 Milk, log exports, meat exports etc we'll have to see...We are balancing our interests on a knife edge, as is Australia.

[Davexl]

"We are balancing our interests on a knife edge, as is Australia. " Also commentary by Singapore on the US attitude towards China...

Australia tells U.S. it has no intention of hurting relationship with China

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/07/29/asia-pacific/australia-us-china-relationship/

[Davexl]

And, Indonesia eyes Eurofighters (ex Austria) to Check China's Threat on the Southern reaches of the South China Sea...

https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/indonesia-eyes-eurofighters-to-check-chinas-threat/

[GTM 3442]

And, Indonesia eyes Eurofighters (ex Austria) to Check China's Threat on the Southern reaches of the South China Sea...

https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/indonesia-eyes-eurofighters-to-check-chinas-threat/

What is the value of fifteen second hand fighter jets without the unified command and control structures, both military and political, both national and international, to allow them to be used as an effective part of a greater, more capable whole.

As Saudi Arabia is discovering, and as many have discovered before them, hardware alone offers only an empty promise of salvation.

[GTM 3442]

And if the Chinese government were to decide that New Zealand dairy products did not meet China's stringent food quality standards, which tune would New Zealand dance to?

Keith Woodford has recently done an interesting series of posts on who can afford the fruits of New Zealand agriculture.

[Zaphod]

And if the Chinese government were to decide that New Zealand dairy products did not meet China's stringent food quality standards, which tune would New Zealand dance to?

Keith Woodford has recently done an interesting series of posts on who can afford the fruits of New Zealand agriculture.

We definitely need to diversify our export market further away from China. The UK deal thus far, looks like a lame duck. Not surprising really.

[Zaphod]

President Trump will no more go to war with China over the Spratlys or Scarborough Shoal than President Eisenhower would go to war with China over Quemoy and Matsu.


I think you're right. I've been reading a couple of books relating to insider accounts of the Trump administration (e.g. The Room Where it Happened), and there is a clear pattern emerging that when the decisions get tough, Trump backs down. An escalation of the current cyber conflict is quite likely.

[Davexl]

And via the Financial Times:

US to pull nearly 12,000 troops out of Germany

(https://click.newsletters.ft.com/f/a/diZL5p6D7EJMvO3oXQTopg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhBAU2P0SPaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZnQuY29tL2NvbnRlbnQvOG ZlZDcyZjgtMWZmMi00ZDRhLWI4Y2UtMDQ0ODViY2IwNzNjP2Vt YWlsSWQ9NWYyMTdmZDBkMDhmZmEwMDA0ZGJhZjA4JnNlZ21lbn RJZD0zZDA4YmU2Mi0zMTVmLTczMzAtNWJiZC1hZjMzZGM1MzFh Y2JXCGZpbnRpbWVzQgoAO0WAIV_crvjsUhRkbGF3dG9uLm56QG dtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)"The Trump administration is pulling nearly 12,000 troops out of Germany in a controversial move set to add to tensions within Nato.
The decision comes after President Donald Trump last month vowed to cap US troops stationed in Germany at 25,000 unless Berlin spent more on defence for the transatlantic security alliance. "

Seems like another reckless decision by the Trump led "regime" that doesn't make any strategic sense whatsoever, whatever you think of Germany's spending.

Mind you - look at NZ's dismal Defence contribution - here's the wake-up call...

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/new-zealands-dangerous-strategic-apathy-in-an-uncertain-age/


(https://click.newsletters.ft.com/f/a/diZL5p6D7EJMvO3oXQTopg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhBAU2P0SPaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZnQuY29tL2NvbnRlbnQvOG ZlZDcyZjgtMWZmMi00ZDRhLWI4Y2UtMDQ0ODViY2IwNzNjP2Vt YWlsSWQ9NWYyMTdmZDBkMDhmZmEwMDA0ZGJhZjA4JnNlZ21lbn RJZD0zZDA4YmU2Mi0zMTVmLTczMzAtNWJiZC1hZjMzZGM1MzFh Y2JXCGZpbnRpbWVzQgoAO0WAIV_crvjsUhRkbGF3dG9uLm56QG dtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)

[Jaa]

As crazy as Trump has been he has somehow pulled his fellow nationalist Modi off India's non-aligned fence and got them used to the idea of collective co-operation and containment. That and another strategic blunder by Xi Jinping in building that road along/into India's territory and allowing an attack on their troops. The four (US, Japan, India and Aus) aren't as clever a strategy as TPP was but it's a solid foundation for future expansion and co-operation.

Other East Asian nations (South Korea, Taiwan and Japan) managed very successful transitions from authoritarian, even dictatorial regimes to thriving market based social democracies. Was worth trying with China but I feel their sense of manifest destiny and historical grievance is stronger. Hopefully will just take a bit longer.

[Davexl]

As crazy as Trump has been he has somehow pulled his fellow nationalist Modi off India's non-aligned fence and got them used to the idea of collective co-operation and containment. That and another strategic blunder by Xi Jinping in building that road along/into India's territory and allowing an attack on their troops. The four (US, Japan, India and Aus) aren't as clever a strategy as TPP was but it's a solid foundation for future expansion and co-operation.

Other East Asian nations (South Korea, Taiwan and Japan) managed very successful transitions from authoritarian, even dictatorial regimes to thriving market based social democracies. Was worth trying with China but I feel their sense of manifest destiny and historical grievance is stronger. Hopefully will just take a bit longer.

Until quite recently I thought that supporting Huawei was an excellent idea, not just technically but geopolitically - it was a 'global' technology that would help to cement the bonds between China & the West to allow time for China to possibly liberalise further. I even wrote items in the South China Morning Post & in the Financial Times supporting Huawei and the mostly European countries that chose them on both technical and security manageability grounds as asserted earlier by both New Zealand and Britain not long ago.

It also seemed that the US definately bullied 5-Eyes countries to get onside with their view which in my opinion was both anti-sovereign for the countries making the choice, and anti-competitive in the free-market trade sense too. The security claims by the US were bogus also according to the UK earlier, "UK says Huawei is manageable risk to 5G" in the Financial Times (Paywalled) and from Alex Younger MI6 in the UK, Total ban on China’s Huawei may be a mistake and it’s ‘more complicated than in or out’,

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/2186414/total-ban-chinas-huawei-may-be-mistake-and-its-more-complicated-or (http://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/2186414/total-ban-chinas-huawei-may-be-mistake-and-its-more-complicated-or)

Huawei in the UK was finally put paid to by a combination of right wing pressure from a Conservatives clique, and the dismantling of Huawei's supply chain (by cutting out TSMC chip supply) by the US rendering Huawei adoption by the UK untenable. Germany & Canada will likely now follow the UK with their decision making.

But after China's earlier lies on their South China Seas commitments, the New York Times papers published on Xinjiang abuses, and then the complete deceit over Hong Kong I for one decided that under President Xi there was no chance for a reconciliation between East & West, the gaps remain too wide and the trust was gone. China not even allowing Taiwan into the WHO in the middle of a global pandemic didn't help either.

The decoupling will take time however, plenty long enough for the idiot Trump regime (you can't really call it an Administration) and President Xi to be challenged & replaced by more rational & less nationalistic forces for a safer world.

[Leftfield]

Good post Davexi....... like you many have woken up to Xi's aggressiveness. Perhaps he has done us all a favour long term.

[Davexl]

Thanks Left Field.:sleep:

More on the ramifications of UK offers to repatriate Hong Kongers with BNO passports, also affecting the French led, Chinese involvement, in Hinckley Point C nuclear reactor, and the potential cancellations of billions in UK investment due to shutting out Huawei 5G.

Hong Kong: China says it will not recognise UK overseas passports

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/30/hong-kong-china-says-it-will-not-recognise-uk-overseas-passports

[Davexl]

And via the Financial Times:

US to pull nearly 12,000 troops out of Germany

(https://click.newsletters.ft.com/f/a/diZL5p6D7EJMvO3oXQTopg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhBAU2P0SPaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZnQuY29tL2NvbnRlbnQvOG ZlZDcyZjgtMWZmMi00ZDRhLWI4Y2UtMDQ0ODViY2IwNzNjP2Vt YWlsSWQ9NWYyMTdmZDBkMDhmZmEwMDA0ZGJhZjA4JnNlZ21lbn RJZD0zZDA4YmU2Mi0zMTVmLTczMzAtNWJiZC1hZjMzZGM1MzFh Y2JXCGZpbnRpbWVzQgoAO0WAIV_crvjsUhRkbGF3dG9uLm56QG dtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)"The Trump administration is pulling nearly 12,000 troops out of Germany in a controversial move set to add to tensions within Nato.
The decision comes after President Donald Trump last month vowed to cap US troops stationed in Germany at 25,000 unless Berlin spent more on defence for the transatlantic security alliance. "

Seems like another reckless decision by the Trump led "regime" that doesn't make any strategic sense whatsoever, whatever you think of Germany's spending.

Mind you - look at NZ's dismal Defence contribution - here's the wake-up call...
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/new-zealands-dangerous-strategic-apathy-in-an-uncertain-age/


Democrats and Republicans take aim at Pompeo over US troop withdrawal from Germany

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/30/us-troops-germany-withdrawal-pompeo-senate-grilling

Looks like both Democrats & Rebublicans don't trust the validity of Pompeo's decision over troop withdrawal.

Pompeo seems to me to be an extremely hawkish "loose cannon" in the Trump regime, first over his unsubstantiated claims over Huawei 5G security,
and now this irrational move...(Must have spent too long in the CIA, and ended up a bit paranoid perhaps - understandable but dangerous)

[Onion]

The decoupling will take time however, plenty long enough for the idiot Trump regime (you can't really call it an Administration) and President Xi to be challenged & replaced by more rational & less nationalistic forces for a safer world.

How will a challenge to President Xi play out? I thought he was establishing quite a solid footing.

[Davexl]

How will a challenge to President Xi play out? I thought he was establishing quite a solid footing.

He appears to be safe for now, attempting to snuff out the Democratic freedoms of Hong Kong, one of the key sources of cross-border Democratic ideas.

However in the longer term, he has already failed, starting with Tienanmen, a whole generation of liberal Chinese waiting for an opportunity,

and the economic failures and mass unemployment brought on by Covid 19, he has to take responsibility for all of it, under his personality cult -

and for people like Liu Xiaobo who kept the flame burning...writing & circulating the Democratic manifesto "Charter 08".

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/07/14/asia-pacific/china-stifles-memorials-nobel-laureate-dissident-liu-xiaobo/

[Davexl]

This article represents the kind of stupidity and paranoia coming out of the Trump "regime",
such is the US' desperation to demonise Huawei at all costs.

So much for Fair Global Competition!

Imagine how the US would respond if Intel Corporation's global chip fabrication was totally threatened?

Totally unsubstantiated security risks based on ignorance over how your common Router works.
Until recently, almost all Routers has easy default access usernames and passwords, to allow the user to manage the router, and to allow the ISP eg Spark & Vodafone to remotely manage the Router on your behalf. And they attempt to call this "Backdoor Access".
This "backdoor access" was deliberate, all Router manufacturers have done this,
almost all of them are manufactured in China in any event, not just Huawei!

No security concerns whatsoever, it would be commercial suicide to do so - totally unsubstantiated...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/trump-official-calls-huawei-mafia-as-white-house-works-on-5g-battle-plan.html

[Davexl]

An update on the situation in Hong Kong:

Hong Kong election disqualifications and arrests deepen 'terror' fears

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/07/30/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/hong-kong-election-disqualifications/

[GTM 3442]

This article represents the kind of stupidity and paranoia coming out of the Trump "regime",
such is the US' desperation to demonise Huawei at all costs.

So much for Fair Global Competition!

Imagine how the US would respond if Intel Corporation's global chip fabrication was totally threatened?

Totally unsubstantiated security risks based on ignorance over how your common Router works.
Until recently, almost all Routers has easy default access usernames and passwords, to allow the user to manage the router, and to allow the ISP eg Spark & Vodafone to remotely manage the Router on your behalf. And they attempt to call this "Backdoor Access".
This "backdoor access" was deliberate, all Router manufacturers have done this,
almost all of them are manufactured in China in any event, not just Huawei!

No security concerns whatsoever, it would be commercial suicide to do so - totally unsubstantiated...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/trump-official-calls-huawei-mafia-as-white-house-works-on-5g-battle-plan.html

Th CNBC article is so lightweight that a butterfly's f*rt would blow it away. I doubt that whoever wrote the CNBC article had read the Finite State report.

I am almost certain that the "senior administration official" has not read the Finite State report.

The issue is not the default user service and administration accounts. However it would have been better if the comparisons had been with devices from other, higher-profile brands.

[Davexl]

Th CNBC article is so lightweight that a butterfly's f*rt would blow it away. I doubt that whoever wrote the CNBC article had read the Finite State report.

I am almost certain that the "senior administration official" has not read the Finite State report.

The issue is not the default user service and administration accounts. However it would have been better if the comparisons had been with devices from other, higher-profile brands.

Yes, the REAL issue is NOT about default user service and administration accounts, but that is the pathetic level of debate the US had dropped to.

The real issue is about the security risks of deploying Huawei in the "Core" of the 5G network, vs the "Radio Access Network" and being able to secure it correctly against malfeasance by a foreign state. With 5G, most of the intelligence is in the Core, but an increasing level of intelligence is distributed to the RAN.

In NZ, the GCSB overruled Spark's early decision to deploy Huawei only to the RAN, to the more intelligence limited part of the network. Spark recently went with Samsung.

In the UK, they initially limited Huawei 5G to 30% of the network in the RAN only, and stated they could "manage" the security risk. Then under pressure by Pompeo and their own Conservatives, they relented to removing Huawei from their earlier 3G / 4G Huawei networks over a period of years as the 5G option became untenable.

By far, the UK had the most experience with using Huawei networks, almost 20 years, with a similar timeframe in NZ. The UK security establishment believed it was possible to "manage" the security situation (see above post), the GCSB which didn't have the internal resources to assess the situation, "said" it wasn't possible. I presume ASIO in Australia, (the Australian Signals directorate) convinced them.

The reality is that Ericsson (& Nokia also??) manufacture in China, alongside Huawei, the manufacturing risks are identical, and so are the deployment risks. Operating systems code could be locked down and secured by using check-summing techniques to verify the code. The only significant risks relate to update code, being deployed without prior security vetting, or a new piece of firmware inserted redirecting a data flow elsewhere from the RAN.

The reality now, is that Huawei 5G deployment has been rendered highly risky, not for security reasons but for supply-chain risk, thanks to the US. (See Post 61)

GTM - I would be interested in hearing about the Finite State report, if it can be linked to or summarised for the Geopolitical thread. Otherwise we are probably both straying off-topic and getting too technical for this debate...

[Davexl]

Something more about Trump & Pompeo...


A cold war does not answer China’s challenge


Guarding the west’s interests and values should not mean an ideological confrontation with Beijing

Financial Times
By Philip Stephens

We are always trying to make sense of the present by reaching into the past. Not so long ago, fashionable commentary on the rivalry between the US and China summoned up a sage of ancient Greece. The Athenian historian Thucydides predicted inevitable conflict between an established hegemon and rising power. Now, the favoured parallel for the Sino-American confrontation is the west’s fight against Soviet communism. Neat as it may seem, that analogy is more confusing than illuminating.

The cold war drum is being beaten most loudly by Donald Trump’s US administration. It is easy to see why. Mr Trump thinks his belligerent stance towards Beijing is worth votes in November’s presidential election. Not so long ago he was boasting about striking a trade deal with Chinese president Xi Jinping, Now, as it condemns Beijing on every front, the Trump White House wants to rally US allies to the cause. How better to do so than to draw a comparison with the west’s resolve to defeat Soviet communism. The analogy is as careless of history as it is heedless of present geopolitics.

The US administration’s matchless ignorance was on display a week ago in a speech by Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, intended to set the terms for a united western stand against Beijing. Speaking ominously of “Communist China and the Free World’s Future”, Mr Pompeo prefaced next year’s 50th anniversary of then, president Richard Nixon’s famous “opening” to China.

Perhaps imagining himself as the George Kennan of our times, Mr Pompeo declared that “securing our freedoms from the Chinese Communist party is the mission of our time”. Kennan, of course, was the US diplomat who set the framework for America’s cold war policy of Soviet “containment”. It was obvious from Mr Pompeo’s speech that he had read neither Kennan’s famous “long telegram” from Moscow nor glanced at the once-secret policy papers setting out the purpose of Nixon’s outreach to Beijing in 1971.
Mr Pompeo’s premise was that Nixon’s goal had been to bring Mao’s China into the western democratic fold. On that basis, he said, it was time for everyone to admit that the policy of “opening” had failed.

The record of the negotiations between Nixon’s envoy Henry Kissinger and the then Chinese premier Zhou Enlai tell a different story. Kissinger was an arch realist, scornful of allowing values to get in the way of hard-headed diplomacy. He did nothing to press the cause of freedom. His purpose, plain and simple, was to isolate Moscow.

The parallel drawn between the ambitions of Mr Xi’s China and that of the former Soviet Union is equally misleading. The cold war was a struggle between competing systems. Today’s Sino-American rivalry is a contest between states.

The Chinese regime has grand ambitions. It wants to push the US out of the western Pacific and establish its own hegemony in east Asia. It is a fair assessment that the long-term goal is to replace the US as the world’s most powerful nation. But, to borrow from Kennan’s characterisation of Soviet aims, Beijing is not seeking the defeat of capitalism across the world.

Moscow presented the world with an alternative way of ordering society. It had fellow travellers, allies and agents in established parties across the world. This was a contest that only one side could survive. Beijing thinks in terms of “spheres of influence”. Mr Xi is not anticipating what Mr Pompeo calls the “global hegemony of Chinese communism”.

This is not to deny the obvious clash of ideologies. On that score, however, Mr Pompeo’s rallying cry for freedom is scarcely helped by Mr Trump’s frequent public applause for unpleasant autocratic regimes, including that of Mr Xi. By the account of his former national security adviser John Bolton, the president offered personal backing to Mr Xi for the brutal crackdown against Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang province.

The Communist party’s repression at home is indeed matched by an increasingly aggressive foreign policy: deploying military might in the South China Sea, economic sanctions against governments that dare to criticise it, and an ugly mix of coercion and threats in emerging nations. But its posture is that of the 19th-century great power rather than the 20th-century Soviet Union. It knows, too, that its claims have to be managed in the context of economic interdependence with the west. The Soviets thought they could crush capitalism. China depends on it.

Certainly, America and its allies should speak out about human rights abuses and draw solid boundaries against aggressive behaviour by the Chinese — and be prepared to defend its values and interests in setting the framework for its relationship.

Mr Trump and Mr Pompeo, however, are seemingly ignorant of the most important piece of advice in Kennan’s
dispatch from Moscow. As vital as it was that the west resisted any Soviet advance, the answer was not provocation or war but to ensure “the health and vigour of our own society”.

Kennan’s last sentence might have been written specifically for Mr Trump: “The greatest danger that can befall us in coping with this problem of Soviet communism, is that we shall allow ourselves to become like those with whom we are coping.”

Source: Financial Times

[GTM 3442]

The Finite State can be accessed here:

https://finitestate.io/finite-state-supply-chain-assessment/

Five minutes or so rolling round the internet will throw up a whole bunch more, of varying degrees of sophistication and credibility.

Although why you'd want to pfaff about with spyware etc when you have the option of a simple, virtually undetectable "kill switch" eludes me.

[Davexl]

The Finite State can be accessed here:

https://finitestate.io/finite-state-supply-chain-assessment/

Five minutes or so rolling round the internet will throw up a whole bunch more, of varying degrees of sophistication and credibility.

Although why you'd want to pfaff about with spyware etc when you have the option of a simple, virtually undetectable "kill switch" eludes me.

Guess the 'kill switch' is the nuclear option, the idea is to listen in, as for all vendors equipment. Wonder how Samsung would do with a similar assessment?

Problem is, with Huawei out of the way now, the world becomes a whole lot more dangerous in a bifurcated world. China & the US are now less dependent on each other which makes the possibility of war higher, if not inevitable at some point IMO anyway.

We'll see...

[Zaphod]

This article represents the kind of stupidity and paranoia coming out of the Trump "regime",
such is the US' desperation to demonise Huawei at all costs.

So much for Fair Global Competition!

Imagine how the US would respond if Intel Corporation's global chip fabrication was totally threatened?

Totally unsubstantiated security risks based on ignorance over how your common Router works.
Until recently, almost all Routers has easy default access usernames and passwords, to allow the user to manage the router, and to allow the ISP eg Spark & Vodafone to remotely manage the Router on your behalf. And they attempt to call this "Backdoor Access".
This "backdoor access" was deliberate, all Router manufacturers have done this,
almost all of them are manufactured in China in any event, not just Huawei!

No security concerns whatsoever, it would be commercial suicide to do so - totally unsubstantiated...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/trump-official-calls-huawei-mafia-as-white-house-works-on-5g-battle-plan.html

There is some equivocation surrounding the definition of the term “back door” within the context of IT security professionals, however in this case I am not sure that what the administration have outlined in the article is the actual issue causing them to pressure nations away from using enterprise-grade Huawei equipment.

Having said this, utilisation of default authentication credentials is a common method to gain access to routers by individuals, hacking groups and nation states (NK & Russia being a prominent examples). While most routers and other network devices do allow passwords to be changed as part of the configuration process, some have been discovered to still accept the default password subsequent to change. Others have additional non-documented administrative accounts enabled. Others still utilise internal webservers containing known vulnerabilities many of which are unpatchable. In this context, it could be argued that this is a “back door” method of gaining access to the device.

Once compromised, a number of attacks can take place, such as enrolling the router or (typically) IoT device in a botnet to launch a targeted attack designed to bring down essential systems, to help spread malware (particularly crypto-ransomware in NK’s case), or to probe internal systems for confidential, classified, or proprietary information.

So while these are real risks, there must be other issues at play with relation to Huawei.

[Davexl]

Thanks Zaphod, the Finite State report on Huawei, describes in some detail what these technical issues might be, and yet the UKs Huawei Cyber Security Centre earlier on deemed such issues as 'manageable'. See post 70 above also...

below,

The geopolitically significant Chip Fabrication Wars, with TSMC playing piggy in the middle between China & the US

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/31/tech/tsmc-intel-semiconductors-hnk-intl/index.html

[Davexl]

Meantime -

While US-China joust in a 5G tech war, neither superpower can compete with Europe or Japan in industrial robot production

https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/us-china-both-lag-badly-in-industrial-robot-race/

[Raz]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/31/new-zealands-relationship-with-china-is-at-a-tipping-point


"The 230,000-strong New Zealand Chinese population is diverse, not all are from mainland China, and those who are, voted with their feet. New Zealand politicians need to show this population that they are interested in representing all of them, not just a wealthy minority connected to the CCP."

[Davexl]

Simply put - This is what is exercising minds in Australia right now:

South China Sea: Inside China’s plans to claim ocean dominance

https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/south-china-sea-inside-chinas-plans-to-claim-ocean-dominance/news-story/e5e0c0b8ce3ba0c03cc1262ea0bdbd3f

In more detail from the SMH - 3 Aug 2020:

Why is the South China Sea such a hotspot?

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/why-is-the-south-china-sea-such-a-hotspot-20200727-p55fxh.html


AND,

This is what should be exercising New Zealanders' minds right now:

There could be an existential threat to NZ within the next 5 - 10 years - I hope that's wrong...

New-Zealands Dangerous Strategic Apathy in an Uncertain Age

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/new-zealands-dangerous-strategic-apathy-in-an-uncertain-age/

If you love your country, please read this article - these issues cannot be ignored any longer...

There is still time for New Zealand's Defence establishment to respond - they are fully aware of this situation but are doing next to nothing to upgrade our actual combat capability.

Australia has upped their 10-year Defence expenditure by 40% - When is New Zealand going to respond ? - It takes political pressure from ALL of us...

[Davexl]

Just who really speaks on behalf of the Philippines? - President Duterte (for China)
or its Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr and Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana (for the US)

I wish they would make up their minds!

"Duterte bans exercises with US in South China Sea"

https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/duterte-bans-exercises-with-us-in-south-china-sea/ (https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/duterte-bans-exercises-with-us-in-south-china-sea/)

[Davexl]

Update on public knowledge of China's capabilities...

China can launch nuclear counterattacks within minutes, ex-PLA officer says

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/03/asia-pacific/china-nuclear-weapons/

[Davexl]

(Aust) PM warns of threats facing our region, revives criticism of negative globalismhttps://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-warns-of-threats-facing-our-region-revives-criticism-of-negative-globalism-20200804-p55ij9.html

Excerpts:

His speech comes after former prime minister Kevin Rudd on Tuesday warned growing tensions between the United States and China could lead to "not just a new Cold War, but a hot one as well".

In a piece for Foreign Affairs magazine, Mr Rudd said the "once unthinkable outcome – actual armed conflict between the United States and China – now appears possible for the first time since the end of the Korean War".

[Davexl]

This is how the CCP attempts to shut down Free-Speech in the University system in Aust. The same thing will be happening in NZ to mainland Chinese students...

'The fear is real': Chinese students in Australia dread reprisal from Beijing

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-fear-is-real-chinese-students-in-australia-dread-reprisal-from-beijing-20200804-p55iht.html

[Davexl]

Just who really speaks on behalf of the Philippines? - President Duterte (for China)
or its Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr and Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana (for the US)

I wish they would make up their minds!

"Duterte bans exercises with US in South China Sea"

https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/duterte-bans-exercises-with-us-in-south-china-sea/

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here are some of the answers to the above questions:

"The True Significance of Pompeo’s South China Sea Statement" - from the AMTI

eg the implications to the Phillipines by the US, claiming that the MDT (Mutual Defence Treaty)
also applies to (https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2019/06/16/1926840/sea-militia-attacks-could-trigger-us-obligations-under-defense-treaty) gray zone attacks, namely “any armed attack” by “government-sanctioned militias”.

https://amti.csis.org/the-true-significance-of-pompeos-south-china-sea-statement/

[Davexl]

US announces highest-level visit to Taiwan in decades, risking China anger https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/05/us-announces-highest-level-visit-to-taiwan-in-decades-risking-china-anger

[Davexl]

China’s assertiveness is becoming a problem for its friends, toohttps://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/05/asia-pacific/china-bothers-friends-too/

[Davexl]

Where in this incompetent Trump regime, is the voice of economic & polemic reality with China?
These are the dangerous "lawyers" responsible for the US and Western Worlds economy in the middle of a global Pandemic...

"Opinion: America's Gang of Four has spoken, but it doesn't understand US-China reality"

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/04/opinions/americas-gang-of-four-stephen-roach/index.html

[Davexl]

And don't forget about the build-up in the Taiwan situation, particularly over the next year:

"Taiwan is in a ‘delicate’ situation with China as military drills intensify, experts warn"

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/taiwan-in-delicate-situation-with-china-as-military-drills-intensify-experts-warn.html

[Davexl]

Investors might want to put this into their diaries:

China, U.S. to review trade deal and air other grievances Aug 15, sources sayhttps://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/05/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/china-us-trade-deal/

[Davexl]

Australia's PM Morrison "toning down" recent comments by a predecessor

Australian leader says U.S.-China war no longer inconceivable

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/05/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/australia-us-china-war/

[Davexl]

Why the U.S. Dropped Atomic Bombs on Japan - A Book Review (NYTimes)"UNCONDITIONAL"
The Japanese Surrender in World War II

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/books/review/unconditional-marc-gallicchio.html

[Davexl]

China says it has no intention of ‘becoming another United States’

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/china-says-it-has-no-intention-of-becoming-another-united-states.html

"Several American officials have warned that China wants to replace the U.S. as the world’s dominant power. Such sentiment in the U.S. culminated in a series of recent speeches by top officials — including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/pompeo-in-fiery-speech-hammers-china-over-international-abuses.html) and national security advisor Robert O’Brien — which called out China for its attempt in upending the global order."

Are these people credible in their demonising of China - Perhaps, based on China's actions, but also on US actions eg Huawei
- Both are at Fault...

"Washington has tried to pressure its allies to ban Huawei (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/21/future-of-5g-us-allies-defy-washingtons-please-to-ban-huawei.html) from their countries’ 5G networks.Wang called such moves by the U.S. a “textbook example of bullying” and a violation of “international rules of fair trade.” In contrast, he stressed that China is a “firm defender” of the international system"

Sounds about right to me anyway...

[Davexl]

Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe warned his U.S. counterpart (Mark Esper) in a (90 minute) phone call Thursday to avoid firing up bilateral tensions

"China warns U.S. against 'dangerous moves' on Taiwan"
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/07/asia-pacific/china-warns-u-s-taiwan/

[Davexl]

Well OK then, Trump has been convinced this is a matter of National Security or

How to alienate the Chinese diaspora in the US and stop students talking to their families back home...

"Trump Targets WeChat and TikTok, in Sharp Escalation With China"https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/technology/trump-wechat-tiktok-china.html

[Davexl]

China risks paying 'high cost' for South China Sea intimidation, Japan defense chief says"Anyone who is trying to change the status quo by force needs to be forced to pay a high cost," Kono said.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/07/asia/japan-defense-minister-interview-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html

[GTM 3442]

Leaving the point-scoring politicians to fend for themselves for a while. . . let's look at the geo-politics in the national interest space.

China needs to import energy, and China needs to export manufactured goods.

Now while China imports hydrocarbons from a wide variety of sources there is a large hydrocarbon exporter next door – Russia. To what extent can China replace its existing hydrocarbon suppliers with Russian hydrocarbons? It would be useful, because hydrocarbons coming through pipelines and railways from the northwest are less vulnerable than hydrocarbons coming from the southeast by sea.

And with the added extra bonus of a set of free steak knives - and wait there’s more - effective control of the South China Sea gives China effective control over the energy imports of three “competitor” economies – Korea, Japan, and Taiwan.

As for exports, well if Chinese manufactured exports to the east are constrained (as China and the US compete and decouple their way to a new Cold War) where can China send it’s manufactured goods to compensate for the lost US market?

Let’s try westward, across the Belt and Road initiative to Europe, and by land to (say) Gwadar thence onward over the sea south-westward to Africa - the largest growth market in the world.

So economically the South China Sea is by and large irrelevant. All it does is provide security by pushing the US military eastward to the big, fat, immovable, sitting duck of the unsinkable (and unmissable) aircraft carrier of Guam – which is pleasingly distant from the Chinese mainland.

win - win - win - win

[Panda-NZ-]

Australia taking things a bit more seriously with corona which is good. Should have shut the borders to America in March and Wuhan in Jan..

[Davexl]

"US fails to build regional coalition against China" (Score: Fail - Please US, try harder...)

by Richard Javad Heydarian (https://asiatimes.com/author/richard-javad-heydarian/) - Highly credible commentator IMO

https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/us-fails-to-build-regional-coalition-against-china/


Also a reminder:

"We are balancing our interests on a knife edge, as is Australia. " Also commentary by Singapore on the US attitude towards China...

Australia tells U.S. it has no intention of hurting relationship with China

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...-relationship/

(Remember to delete "cookies" for Japan Times website to access)
(https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/07/29/asia-pacific/australia-us-china-relationship/)

[Panda-NZ-]

Regional coalition was the Trans Pacific Partnership I thought.

Though trump still hasn't worked out a deal with them three years in. or even in an easy country like canada.

[Davexl]

Regional coalition was the Trans Pacific Partnership signed by pres Obama.

Though trump still hasn't worked out a deal with them three years in. or even an easy country like canada.

Yes - that is what a Rational Administration would have achieved by now, along with every other achievement that Trump's regime has since undone.

The current Aggressive Chinese regime and the Stupid US "regime" fails to understand the economic and strategic balancing act that has to be maintained currently among regional countries, and the US particularly still views issues thru a bilateral lens vs multilateral, and fails to see the potential economic collateral damage,

- short of either China or the US side doing something stupid and starting a war...

[Ahgong]

[QUOTE=Davexl;834724]Yes - that is what a Rational Administration would have achieved by now, along with every other achievement that Trump's regime has since undone.

The current Aggressive Chinese regime and the Stupid US "regime" fails to understand the economic and strategic balancing act that has to be maintained currently among regional countries, and the US particularly still views issues thru a bilateral lens vs multilateral, and fails to see the potential economic collateral damage,

- short of either China or the US side doing something stupid and starting a war...[/QUOTE ]

A more balanced view below:

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3096155/countering-china-us-must-not-lose-its-knack-nuanced-diplomacy

[Davexl]

China-U.S. ties plunge further over Hong Kong sanctionshttps://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/08/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/us-sanctions-hong-kong-carrie-lam/

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the security law violated promises made by China ahead of Hong Kong’s 1997
handover that the city could keep key freedoms and autonomy for 50 years.


“Today’s actions send a clear message that the Hong Kong authorities’ actions are unacceptable,” Pompeo said in a statement.

[Davexl]

(Aust) PM warns of threats facing our region, revives criticism of negative globalism

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-warns-of-threats-facing-our-region-revives-criticism-of-negative-globalism-20200804-p55ij9.html

Excerpts:

His speech comes after former prime minister Kevin Rudd on Tuesday warned growing tensions between the United States and China could lead to "not just a new Cold War, but a hot one as well".

In a piece for Foreign Affairs magazine, Mr Rudd said the "once unthinkable outcome – actual armed conflict between the United States and China – now appears possible for the first time since the end of the Korean War".

If America and China Go to War, It Won’t Be an Accidenthttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-07/war-between-china-and-america-won-t-happen-by-accident

I found this somewhat reassuring until I considered the following:

What if the calculus by a Trump like US regime is that ...if war is inevitable, then it is better to fight it earlier rather than later while it's still winnable...
Whereas China's calculation, if IT see's war as inevitable is ...it's better to delay a war as long as possible, until we are much stronger militarily...

That would be my concern, as South East Asia and Australasia would be collateral damage...and NZ is totally & utterly unprepared to defend its area of interest...

[Leftfield]

China's floods and related food supply issues highlight China's reliance on other countries.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/08/economy/china-food-economy-flooding-intl-hnk/index.html

[Davexl]

U.S. visit to Taiwan begins, adding to escalating China tensions

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/09/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/us-taiwan-china/

excerpt:
Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry hit back at China’s criticism of the visit on Thursday, calling Beijing a “global troublemaker.”


“What the Chinese government can do is stop making irresponsible remarks on the international stage and
stop interfering with Taiwan’s foreign exchanges,” ministry spokeswoman Joanne Ou said at a briefing Thursday.

“What the Chinese government can do is ‘return politics to the people, listen to the voices of the people, and
understand the needs of the people’ because the 1.4 billion people of China and Hong Kong deserve freedom.”

[macduffy]

That would be my concern, as South East Asia and Australasia would be collateral damage...and NZ is totally & utterly unprepared to defend its area of interest...

Suggestions?

[Davexl]

Suggestions?

Rebuild our Airforce strike wing, perhaps with the Gripen Fighter. After discussion in the Facebook group 'Friends of the RAN / RNZAF A-4 Skyhawk' group. there seems to be a consensus forming that the Swedish Gripen aircraft would be a good replacement fit for NZ if it rearmed. Better for warfighting in the S/W Pacific domain, using short runways and fast turnaround to rearm and re engine if necessary and fully net-workable.

Ron Mark, our Defence minister is doing his best to at least upgrade our obsolete equipment, but having no AirStrike wing and only 2 frigates in our "Navy" doesn't cut it in my view anyway, or in the view of some people within NZ's own Defence Community. Ron briefly commented to me that as NZ First, the junior MMP coalition partner, has only 7% of the vote, it doesn't have the leverage to demand a serious level of Defence expenditure within the caucus.

Traditionally in my memory, NZ maintained 4 frigates as well as the Air Strike Wing. It was a total travesty for Helen Clark, our Prime Minister of the time to dispand our Skyhawks and cancel the F16 deal with the US. Almost treasonous in my personal view. There are repercussions even to this day.

This is what should be exercising New Zealanders' minds right now IMO:

There could be an existential threat to NZ within the next 5 - 10 years - I hope that's wrong...

New-Zealands Dangerous Strategic Apathy in an Uncertain Age

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ne...uncertain-age/ (https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/new-zealands-dangerous-strategic-apathy-in-an-uncertain-age/)

If you love your country, please read this article - these issues cannot be ignored any longer...

There is still time for New Zealand's Defence establishment to respond - they are fully aware of this situation but are doing next to nothing to upgrade our actual combat capability.

Australia has upped their 10-year Defence expenditure by 40% - When is New Zealand going to respond ? - It takes political pressure from ALL of us...

[Davexl]

China leader Xi Jinping slammed for his 'wolf warrior' tactics

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12355007

Excerpt:

"Xi has always had his critics among China's liberal scholars who blame him for provoking the US with his assertive diplomatic and military policies," he writes.
They prefer the "hide your strength, bide your time" policy enacted by Chairman Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s.

"But by citing the doctrine of a revered political leader like Deng, the liberals gave themselves political cover to criticise Xi, without mentioning him by name."

[greater fool]

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3096535/china-sympathisers-new-red-scare-stalks-australian-businesses

[Davexl]

With thanks to Iceman! Updates the effects on US supply-chain constraints on Taiwan fab manufacturers for Huawei

Huawei says it’s running out of chips for its smartphones because of US sanctions

https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/9/21360598/huawei-chips-us-sanctions-trump-china-privacy-smartphone

[Davexl]

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3096535/china-sympathisers-new-red-scare-stalks-australian-businesses

Excellent article - I wonder sadly, how much longer the SCMP can maintain credible independence from the CCP.

Also, I very much doubt that right wing social media in the US has any effect whatsoever on the Aust psyche, together with the claims of the CCP that Hong Kong was subject to "foreign manipulation" stirring up the Democracy protests. Patently ridiculous!

[Jaa]

"Wolf warrior diplomacy might appease Chinese nationalists at home, but it will limit China's appeal abroad.

Much of the wolf warrior rubbish is strictly for internal consumption or for consumption by Xi himself and is more accurately understood as internal weakness. The problem with authoritarian echo chambers is you can start to believe your own hype and do real damage externally like getting Somalia to recognise Taiwan! Or worse blunder into a major mistake ala Argentina in the 80s.

China's floods are adding to Xi's problems, he even left his bubble to meet some farmers. More reliant on the US for food now than they ever have been.

Chinese people are always quick to attack and ridicule Trump but try to get one to say a bad word about Xi. The fear is real.

[Jaa]

Excellent article - I wonder however how much longer the SCMP can maintain credible independence from the CCP.

In what way is the SCMP independent now?!? Their coverage of the HK protests was laughable. They are already simply a more refined mouthpiece for CCP propaganda, that article included.

[Davexl]

Hong Kong police raid major news organisation, arrest billionaire owner (Jimmy Lai)

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/09/media/hong-kong-security-law-jimmy-lai-intl-hnk/index.html

Lai, 71, is the highest profile person to be charged under the new national security laws imposed by Beijing, which punish dissent
with sentences of up to life in prison. Apple Daily said two of Lai's sons and several other executives were also arrested on Monday.


"Jimmy Lai is being arrested for collusion with foreign powers at this time," Mark Simon, a senior executive at
Lai's media company Next Digital, which publishes Apple Daily, said.


Opinion: Jimmy Lai
Do My Tweets Really Threaten China’s National Security?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/opinion/hong-kong-china-national-security-law.html

[Davexl]

Book Review

TO START A WAR
How the Bush Administration Took America Into Iraq
By Robert Draper

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/28/books/review/to-start-a-war-robert-draper.html

...Drawing on their years of warnings about threats from abroad, Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz teamed up
with Vice President Dick Cheney to push for war and isolate the reluctant Powell...

[greater fool]

Book Review

TO START A WAR
How the Bush Administration Took America Into Iraq
By Robert Draper

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/28/books/review/to-start-a-war-robert-draper.html

...Drawing on their years of warnings about threats from abroad, Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz teamed up
with Vice President Dick Cheney to push for war and isolate the reluctant Powell...

I smell something of a beat-up in that link ( and quote ).
Powell was Chair Joint Chiefs of Staff, a military man, not a politician.
This book from Woodward paints Powell as careful, rather than reluctant, and that he served Potus well in that role. YMMV.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11586-Recommended-Read&p=825529&viewfull=1#post825529

[Davexl]

I smell something of a beat-up in that link ( and quote ).
Powell was Chair Joint Chiefs of Staff, a military man, not a politician.
This book from Woodward paints Powell as careful, rather than reluctant, and that he served Potus well in that role. YMMV.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11586-Recommended-Read&p=825529&viewfull=1#post825529

Your nuance is appreciated...I was emphasizing the dangers of military "hawks' being able to politicise the decision to go to war,
compared against Powell, a military man with the measured approach he took in his own recommendations to POTUS.

Wish i had the time to read it personally BTW. Never knew about the Recommended-Read section until now. Thank You!

[Davexl]

Right in our own back yard, Biggest future "donors"?

Pacific states face instability, hunger and slow road to Covid recovery: Dame Meg Taylor https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/11/pacific-states-face-instability-hunger-and-slow-road-to-covid-recovery-dame-meg-taylor

[Davexl]

US, China in last-ditch try to avoid war at sea by Richard Javad Heydarian (https://asiatimes.com/author/richard-javad-heydarian/)

US, Chinese defense chiefs talk one-on-one on South China Sea and Taiwan Strait but there are no signs either side will back down

Somewhat speculative, but investors draw your own conclusions...

https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/us-china-in-last-ditch-try-to-avoid-war-at-sea/
(https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/us-china-in-last-ditch-try-to-avoid-war-at-sea/)

[Davexl]

Bifurcation of Global Manufacturing continues eg Foxconn with Apple

"China's days as 'world's factory' are over, iPhone maker says"

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/china-s-days-as-world-s-factory-are-over-iphone-maker-says-20200813-p55l6s.html

[Zaphod]

There are plenty of other low cost centres, but I think the longer term solution would be for the death of consumerism. That would help shift the power-balance significantly. Do we really need to buy $1-$2k phones or other every year?

[Davexl]

Will Israel totally drop the idea of annexation of the West Bank?
Will this ultimately swing the balance of Arab states towards 'moderates' in the Middle East. ie. UAE, Jordan & Egypt?

Israel and the UAE establish 'full normalization of relations'

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/politics/israel-united-arab-emirates-normalization-trump/index.html

[Davexl]

Finally, something great out of the Trump administration c/o Jarad Kushner

Opinion - A Geopolitical Earthquake Just Hit the Mideast - NYTimes
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/13/opinion/israel-uae.html

"But there is another message, deeper, more psychological. This was the U.A.E. telling the Iranians and all their proxies:

There are really two coalitions in the region today — those who want to let the future bury the past and those who want to let the past keep burying the future.
The U.A.E. is taking the helm of the first, and it is leaving Iran to be the leader of the second."

[Davexl]

Real courage and on the 'right side of history':

'The press has to go on': Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai defies Beijing

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/15/the-press-has-to-go-on-hong-kong-media-tycoon-jimmy-lai-defies-beijing

[Davexl]

US sees embarrassing UN defeat over Iran arms embargo proposal

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/14/us-iran-un-arms-embargo-nuclear-deal

She said the ultimate US aim was also to try to provoke Iran into a reaction, possibly leaving the JCPOA itself, or even expel international nuclear inspectors.

“It is a scorched-earth approach, destroying the JCPOA in order to make it difficult for a Biden administration, and for the Iranians, to return to it,” DiMaggio said.

“They’re not concerned with keeping a lid on Iran’s nuclear program. They really want to kill this deal.”

If the above is true, then the Trump regime is being incredibly irresponsible...

[Davexl]

A story about my Father's generation who served in WWII - commentary of the legacy on the son, and of the endurance & fortitude of that generation.

(My own father fought in North Africa & Italy, and an Uncle fought in both the European & Pacific theatres - How about Yours?)

Lessons from history in a war letter from Okinawa

https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/lessons-from-history-in-a-war-letter-from-okinawa

The people who lived through these conflicts were forced to accumulate reserves of endurance and fortitude that are not evident in today’s populations, particularly in the United States.

We should think about them when we feel annoyed at having to put on a mask, wash our hands with alcohol at the supermarket,
skip that after-work drink with friends or postpone foreign travel.

Yes, Covid-19 is a bad thing. But the lesson that history teaches us, as we approach the anniversary of Japan’s surrender on August 15,
is that matters could be far, far worse.

[Davexl]

Duplicate Entry

[kiwico]

....as we approach the anniversary of Japan’s surrender on August 15.....

Saw a bit about this on the news tonight with representatives from a number of countries. Again, it seems to have otherwise been totally ignored in New Zealand, despite the focus on the Pacific theatre.

[Davexl]

Saw a bit about this on the news tonight with representatives from a number of countries. Again, it seems to have otherwise been totally ignored in New Zealand, despite the focus on the Pacific theatre.

NZ coverage of international news is pretty poor IMO. National Radio has turned into a music station basically, with tiny news bulletins on the hour...Kinda pathetic.

[Davexl]

Interesting and fast moving situation in Belarus, will they oust Lukashenko and swing to the west?, Will Russia intervene? Lots of imminent questions...

'We will perish': embattled Lukashenko sends SOS to Putin

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/16/we-will-perish-embattled-lukashenko-sends-sos-to-putin

[Davexl]

More from Reuters about Belarus...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-belarus-election/protesters-pack-belarus-capital-russia-says-military-help-available-idUSKCN25C08E

[Davexl]

Pacific war legacies:

The Pacific War: Losers and WinnersThe legacy of Japanese aggression & American ascendancy

https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/the-pacific-war-losers-and-winners/

[Davexl]

More insight on Japan's legacy in NE Asia:

Why Japan, South Korea and China can't put the past behind them

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/08/13/commentary/japan-commentary/japan-south-korea-china-cant-put-past-behind

[Davexl]

Wonder if this will make the evening news in NZ, or will it be 'censored'...?

Getting uncomfortably close to home...

China accused of spying on Australia naval build-up

Allegations center on China's Adelaide Consulate which some speculate Canberra could soon order to be closed

https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/china-accused-of-spying-on-australia-naval-build-up/

[Davexl]

Belarus leader says there won't be new elections 'until you kill me' as protesters rally against strongman
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/17/europe/belarus-lukashenko-monday-strikes-intl/index.html

[Davexl]

Further clampdowns on Huawei, based on no produced evidence...

U.S. tightening restrictions on Huawei access to technology, chipshttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-huawei-tech/u-s-tightening-restrictions-on-huawei-access-to-technology-chips-idUSKCN25D1CC

[Brain]

Wonder if this will make the evening news in NZ, or will it be 'censored'...?

Getting uncomfortably close to home...

China accused of spying on Australia naval build-up

Allegations center on China's Adelaide Consulate which some speculate Canberra could soon order to be closed

https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/china-accused-of-spying-on-australia-naval-build-up/

I would be probably stating the obvious here but all high commissions , consulates ,embassies would be spying on their host country so it should come as no surprise to the Australians that the Chinese Adelaide consulate would be spying on Australia. Australia has an embassy in Beijing. This is the way of the world.

[Davexl]

I would be probably stating the obvious here but all high commissions , consulates ,embassies would be spying on their host country so it should come as no surprise to the Australians that the Chinese Adelaide consulate would be spying on Australia. Australia has an embassy in Beijing. This is the way of the world.

But of course - as long as it doesn't become a political incident...

[Brain]

But of course - as long as it doesn't become a political incident...

true - but the Australians are choosing to make it a political incident rather than viewing it as business as usual.

[greater fool]

Wonder if this will make the evening news in NZ, or will it be 'censored'...?

Getting uncomfortably close to home...

China accused of spying on Australia naval build-up

Allegations center on China's Adelaide Consulate which some speculate Canberra could soon order to be closed

https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/china-accused-of-spying-on-australia-naval-build-up/

Cannot work out why anybody would think this may be 'censored', after all, as already pointed out to
you, espionage is business as usual.
Try reading this book for some perspective;
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11586-Recommended-Read&p=823777&viewfull=1#post823777

[greater fool]

This may have more geo political consequences than Aussie sheep bleating about spies.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3097807/japan-pms-health-question-rumours-swirl-successors-jostle

[Davexl]

Internal dissent made public:

China's Xi Jinping facing widespread opposition in his own party, insider claims


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/18/china-xi-jinping-facing-widespread-opposition-in-his-own-party-claims-insider (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/16/national/politics-diplomacy/hong-kong-agnes-chow-japan-china/#.XzujNjWxVPY)

Exclusive: Cai Xia, who has been expelled from the elite Central Party School, says president’s ‘unchecked power’ has made China ‘the enemy of the world’

[Davexl]

Arrest of Agnes Chow in may stir up anti Chinese feeling among Japanese:

Arrest of Hong Kong's 'Goddess of Democracy' may complicate Japan-China ties


https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/16/national/politics-diplomacy/hong-kong-agnes-chow-japan-china (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/16/national/politics-diplomacy/hong-kong-agnes-chow-japan-china/#.XzujNjWxVPY)

[Davexl]

In my personal opinion China actually is right on this matter...

China Calls U.S. Rules on Huawei ‘Nothing Short of Bullying’


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-18/china-calls-u-s-actions-on-huawei-nothing-short-of-bullying-kdzobtga

[Davexl]

Belarus president hints at fresh repression to keep grip on power


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/18/lukashenko-awards-medals-belarus-riot-police-kgb

'However, on Tuesday there were signs that the resolve of striking workers may be weakening in the face of threats from management,
and the fighting talk to his security council suggested Lukashenko is seeking to shore up support among the security services and army.'

[Davexl]

China ups ante as US support bolsters Taiwan
Beijing likely fears Taipei's ultimate goal is to gain US and wider Western recognition as a sovereign state

by Richard Javad Heydarian

https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/china-ups-ante-as-us-support-bolsters-taiwan/ (https://asiatimes.com/author/richard-javad-heydarian/)

The Chinese state-backed Global Times described (https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1197716.shtml) the large-scale exercises as a “clear and unprecedented deterrence toward secessionists of the island as well as the US, as the Trump administration has increased its links with the Taiwan secessionist authority, and the possibility of peaceful reunification is decreasing sharply.”

[Davexl]

Internal dissent made public:

China's Xi Jinping facing widespread opposition in his own party, insider claims

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/18/china-xi-jinping-facing-widespread-opposition-in-his-own-party-claims-insider (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/16/national/politics-diplomacy/hong-kong-agnes-chow-japan-china/#.XzujNjWxVPY)

Exclusive: Cai Xia, who has been expelled from the elite Central Party School, says president’s ‘unchecked power’ has made China ‘the enemy of the world’

She was a Communist Party insider in China. Then she denounced Xihttps://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/19/asia-pacific/communist-party-insider-denounced-xi

NY Times

[peat]

Davexl going for a new record in consecutive posts here.

oops I blew it for ya .

[Davexl]

Davexl going for a new record in consecutive posts here.

oops I blew it for ya .

Don't think anybody reads this stuff anyway Peat, missing my old Time magazines.
Maybe I should run a short course in getting round pay wall restrictions by deleting the cookies of the Web page.
Firefox works best of the browsers, or just clear the browser cookies when closing the browser to reset them...

[GTM 3442]

Davexl going for a new record in consecutive posts here.

oops I blew it for ya .

Naughty naughty. . . that was unkind.

[GTM 3442]

Belarus president hints at fresh repression to keep grip on power


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/18/lukashenko-awards-medals-belarus-riot-police-kgb

'However, on Tuesday there were signs that the resolve of striking workers may be weakening in the face of threats from management,
and the fighting talk to his security council suggested Lukashenko is seeking to shore up support among the security services and army.'

Strongmen autocrat dictators rely on support from the security services and the military to retain their position. Since Lukashenko hasn't gone full-mental-Assad, it's only a matter of time now.

After the rebuff to President Putin over the "amalgamation" proposal, there's not likely to be much support coming from the east. but what might come from the west?

Perhaps Russia's preferred option might be a second Ukraine. Permanent political paralysis preventing closer relations with the EU and NATO? Which, of course, begs the question what might Russia's least preferred future for Belarus look like?

[peat]

I didnt mean it to be unkind , so apologies if it was taken that way...

Belarus and Ukraine are not huge sources of geo-political risk for NZ'ers especially. Lets face it , the West doesnt really care about them. No Western nation will go to war with Russia over these nations. We saw that with Georgia which still has parts of it occupied illegally by Russia .
And Trump is emasculating any international forces bravado, so they are less likely to stand up to even blatant aggression .
As America steps aside in world peacekeeping duties these microagressions chew away at neighbouring countries rights. It is geopolitically important for Russia to keep this barrier to the West and they will stick at retaining it much more than the West will want to inconvenience itself at the risk of waking the bear.

11863

[Davexl]

I didnt mean it to be unkind , so apologies if it was taken that way...

No need to apologise at all Peat. Just trying to get the party going. I've made my points re Western values, Huawei bullying and NZ Defence readiness in these dangerous times and appreciate others stepping up to the plate with their own analysis & insights. Just hope there are others out there willing to contribute to what I find is a fascinating area...

[peat]

No need to apologise at all Peat. Just trying to get the party going. I've made my points re Western values, Huawei bullying and NZ Defence readiness in these dangerous times and appreciate others stepping up to the plate with their own analysis & insights. Just hope there are others out there willing to contribute to what I find is a fascinating area...

Cheers
I agree it is fascinating and have read a lot of Stratfor and a couple of George Friedmans books.
Weirdly enough with all this technology and modern world the views I read still mainly seem to focus on what I call traditional areas , such as mountains as dividing ranges, and plains as vulnerable etc and perhaps more justifiably the search for resource ownership

I wonder whether it wont be long before topology is a lot less relevant with flying drones and maybe at some point cheaper energy.
Certainly I would have expected more cyber warfare by now and for this to have a bigger part to play in offense/defense than it would appear to have currently. Of course it may be there and I just dont know about it.

[Davexl]

'A Chinese attack on Taiwan is not imminent' - Well that's nice to know...
https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/a-chinese-attack-on-taiwan-is-not-imminent/

[Davexl]

Pompeo warns Russia, China against ignoring move to reimpose U.N. sanctions on Iranhttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-un-sanctions/pompeo-warns-russia-china-against-ignoring-move-to-reimpose-u-n-sanctions-on-iran-idUSKCN25F2S4


'Pompeo said it was unfortunate that the European members of the council abstained on the U.S. attempt to extend the arms embargo and that the move “makes the European people less safe.” “They just are wedded to this crazy nuclear deal, they’re trying to hang on to it,” he said. '

Yeah right - the Europeans 'are wedded to this crazy nuclear deal'. Of course they are - it's the sanest thing to do, it's the crazy Trump regime that has it all wrong!

[GTM 3442]

Rebuild our Airforce strike wing, perhaps with the Gripen Fighter. After discussion in the Facebook group 'Friends of the RAN / RNZAF A-4 Skyhawk' group. there seems to be a consensus forming that the Swedish Gripen aircraft would be a good replacement fit for NZ if it rearmed. Better for warfighting in the S/W Pacific domain, using short runways and fast turnaround to rearm and re engine if necessary and fully net-workable.

Ron Mark, our Defence minister is doing his best to at least upgrade our obsolete equipment, but having no AirStrike wing and only 2 frigates in our "Navy" doesn't cut it in my view anyway, or in the view of some people within NZ's own Defence Community. Ron briefly commented to me that as NZ First, the junior MMP coalition partner, has only 7% of the vote, it doesn't have the leverage to demand a serious level of Defence expenditure within the caucus.

Traditionally in my memory, NZ maintained 4 frigates as well as the Air Strike Wing. It was a total travesty for Helen Clark, our Prime Minister of the time to dispand our Skyhawks and cancel the F16 deal with the US. Almost treasonous in my personal view. There are repercussions even to this day.

This is what should be exercising New Zealanders' minds right now IMO:

There could be an existential threat to NZ within the next 5 - 10 years - I hope that's wrong...

New-Zealands Dangerous Strategic Apathy in an Uncertain Age

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ne...uncertain-age/ (https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/new-zealands-dangerous-strategic-apathy-in-an-uncertain-age/)

If you love your country, please read this article - these issues cannot be ignored any longer...

There is still time for New Zealand's Defence establishment to respond - they are fully aware of this situation but are doing next to nothing to upgrade our actual combat capability.

Australia has upped their 10-year Defence expenditure by 40% - When is New Zealand going to respond ? - It takes political pressure from ALL of us...

Strike wing? The Gripen?

New Zealand is a nation which relies on imports and exports, carried over the sea on ships. So what New Zealand needs isn a way to protect the ships which carry its imports and exports.

How to do that?

In the air, range maritime reconnaissance capability and capacity. Something which can stay in the air for a long time, something which can see for a long way, and something which can drop the odd piece of ordnance as and if required.

At sea, well the saga of the cruiser "Royalist" should provide a salutary lesson. Small but heavily armed, and lots of it. After all, what's the lead time for an AN frigate in years?

And for projecting power into the Pacific? Soft power or hard power? I think the jury might still be out on that one, but time will tell if it will turn out to be a hung jury followed by the traditional inertia.

[Davexl]

Strike wing? The Gripen?

New Zealand is a nation which relies on imports and exports, carried over the sea on ships. So what New Zealand needs isn a way to protect the ships which carry its imports and exports.

How to do that?

In the air, range maritime reconnaissance capability and capacity. Something which can stay in the air for a long time, something which can see for a long way, and something which can drop the odd piece of ordnance as and if required.

At sea, well the saga of the cruiser "Royalist" should provide a salutary lesson. Small but heavily armed, and lots of it. After all, what's the lead time for an AN frigate in years?

And for projecting power into the Pacific? Soft power or hard power? I think the jury might still be out on that one, but time will tell if it will turn out to be a hung jury followed by the traditional inertia.

Interesting points,

I guess the forthcoming P8 upgrades takes care of the first part of the equation, although if we had a bigger budget we would get a couple more, considering the rapidly increasing surveillance need over NZ's enormous maritime domain including the nation states of the SW Pacific.

Soft power vs hard power. I personally think we absolutely must do both as Australia is doing, considering the leadtimes right now. Soft power is irrelevant if push comes to shove, especially if we are to do our bit in the SW Pacific. Once China establishes a base there it's a serious problem.

There is a risk that unless Aust & NZ step up more, eg with Covid assistance should it hit the islands, China could move in with 'hard money' and establish a beachhead. The Pacific step-up should help but...

[Davexl]

How Huawei landed at the centre of global tech tussle

https://www.stuff.co.nz/technology/300087395/how-huawei-landed-at-the-centre-of-global-tech-tussle

Quite a good recap on the mega technology battle continuing between the US & China
(Background history up to most recent August supply-chain developments)

[Davexl]

Fast developing situation:

Alexei Navalny to be flown to Germany for suspected poisoning treatment

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/21/alexei-navalny-to-be-flown-to-germany-for-suspected-poisoning-treatment

[Davexl]

More attempts at bullying by Pompeo, first on Huawei and now Iran, despite the fact it was in full compliance with the JCPOA until the US stupidly terminated an agreement where negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 began in 2006. All that incredibly hard work undone by a stupid Trump regime, led by an even more ignorant Trump...

Iran sanctions: nearly all UN security council unites against 'unpleasant' US

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/21/us-iran-sanctions-un-mike-pompeo

[GTM 3442]

Interesting points,

I guess the forthcoming P8 upgrades takes care of the first part of the equation, although if we had a bigger budget we would get a couple more, considering the rapidly increasing surveillance need over NZ's enormous maritime domain including the nation states of the SW Pacific.

Soft power vs hard power. I personally think we absolutely must do both as Australia is doing, considering the leadtimes right now. Soft power is irrelevant if push comes to shove, especially if we are to do our bit in the SW Pacific. Once China establishes a base there it's a serious problem.

There is a risk that unless Aust & NZ step up more, eg with Covid assistance should it hit the islands, China could move in with 'hard money' and establish a beachhead. The Pacific step-up should help but...


The purpose of soft power is to prevent push coming to shove.

So what can "hard money" buy in the Pacific? And could New Zealand compete with it? And how important is money in the scheme of things anyway?

What are the Pacific micro-states interested in? I would guess that at the moment they are interested in what's going on in their EEZs. And that they're looking very carefully at the saga of that Chinese fishing fleet which was working around the Galapagos, and wondering what it might mean for their interests.

I suspect they're also aware that there's no prospect of ongoing seasonal or agricultural work for their people in China.

So New Zealand has some levers to pull in the Pacific. As does Australia.

Perhaps it's worth teaming up with Australia to set up in-air refuelling capability for the P8s?

[Davexl]

GTM 3442 comments in quotes, Davexl comments in between...


"The purpose of soft power is to prevent push coming to shove.

So what can "hard money" buy in the Pacific? And could New Zealand compete with it? And how important is money in the scheme of things anyway?"


Soft power is merely a means to an end, not necessarily limited to 'goodwill'. Hard Cash can fund the influence on and the sustainability of these island economies, which let's face it, are failed states without tourism operating thanks to Covid-19 and even in good times they are heavily reliant on seasonal / predominately low skill job access (& remittances) in NZ & Australia to be viable economies.

NZ & Australia combined can compete with China for now for influence, but China can easily step up itself as a lender to build roads, communications, and then "fishing ports" and fishing rights to those countries EEZ's. The island nations desperately need 'sustainable' jobs and won't necessarily be fussy over who supplies them.

Whether they are entrapped by debt provisions / asset takeovers on possible loan defaults is another matter entirely as other developing nations have been, but China will have refined its strategies following Western criticism to enhance its ultimate lending & asset control.


"What are the Pacific micro-states interested in? I would guess that at the moment they are interested in what's going on in their EEZs. And that they're looking very carefully at the saga of that Chinese fishing fleet which was working around the Galapagos, and wondering what it might mean for their interests."


I would hope they are looking extremely carefully into the Galapagos islands situation as should New Zealand itself. The ability to GPS spoof their fleet locations as being in New Zealand, should be a wake-up call to be very suspicious of China's motivations & intentions wrt. the maintenance of a sustainable fishery resource.

On a side note, I wonder if at least one of the recent US Navy ship collisions was somehow associated with GPS spoofing, but this is speculation on my part...


"I suspect they're also aware that there's no prospect of ongoing seasonal or agricultural work for their people in China."


I expect that if a logistical response was able to form a "Jobs Bubble" with Covid-controlled China, that this would be a point of leverage against NZ & Aust.


"So New Zealand has some levers to pull in the Pacific. As does Australia." In terms of goodwill, yes for now, but "money talks".


"Perhaps it's worth teaming up with Australia to set up in-air refuelling capability for the P8s?"


I would expect this capability to be covered off with Aust if required. Not sure what option they chose at this point. It would be better if we could demonstrate some operational self-sufficiency and budgetary independance from Aust also but see below...

The P-8 cannot use the hose-and-drogue in-flight refueling method, instead featuring a flying boom receptacle on the upper-forward fuselage, making it, like the USN's E-6 Mercury (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-6_Mercury) TACAMO (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TACAMO) aircraft, reliant on U.S. Air Force (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Air_Force) KC-135 Stratotanker (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KC-135_Stratotanker), KC-10 Extender (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KC-10_Extender) and KC-46 Pegasus (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KC-46_Pegasus) aircraft for in-flight refueling. In April 2017, the USAF 459th Air Refueling Wing (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/459th_Air_Refueling_Wing) worked with the Naval Air Systems Command to certify operationally the P-8 for in-flight refueling.[52] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_P-8_Poseidon#cite_note-P8Refueling-52) For extended endurance, six additional fuel tanks from Marshall Aerospace (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Aerospace) are housed in the forward and rear cargo compartments.

[Davexl]

Internal dissent made public:

China's Xi Jinping facing widespread opposition in his own party, insider claims

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/18/china-xi-jinping-facing-widespread-opposition-in-his-own-party-claims-insider (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/16/national/politics-diplomacy/hong-kong-agnes-chow-japan-china/#.XzujNjWxVPY)

Exclusive: Cai Xia, who has been expelled from the elite Central Party School, says president’s ‘unchecked power’ has made China ‘the enemy of the world’




More confirmation of where Xi is taking and wants to take China & the world:

China's Communist Party is a threat to the world, says former elite insider

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/22/asia/chinas-communist-party-threat-world-intl-hnk/index.html

"The relationship between China and the United States is not a conflict between the two peoples,
but a contest and confrontation between two systems and two ideologies," Cai told CNN.

[Davexl]

'US, China sea tensions hot and getting hotter'
by Richard Javad Heydarian (https://asiatimes.com/author/richard-javad-heydarian/)

https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/us-china-sea-tensions-hot-and-getting-hotter/

(https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/us-china-sea-tensions-hot-and-getting-hotter/)'During its latest drills in the South China Sea on August 18, the US Navy’s USS Mustin destroyer upped the ante
by reportedly piercing through for the first time the western side of the median line dividing mainland China and Taiwan.

China has lashed back by describing the move as “extremely dangerous”, (https://au.news.yahoo.com/us-quietly-makes-unprecedented-move-against-china-093019974.html) and vowing to defend its interests
and claims in the area,including the eventual integration of Taiwan with the mainland.'


(https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/us-china-sea-tensions-hot-and-getting-hotter/)

[GTM 3442]

GTM 3442 comments in quotes, Davexl comments in between...

Given Boeing's propensity to leave spanners in the works, it might be a good thing that Australia went European with aerial refuelling. . . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A330_MRTT

Raises the question of inter-operability and commonality of gear, doesn't it - making those ANZAC frigates look good in more ways than one!

And out of idle curiosity, are you cynical enough to wonder if the Chinese finding COVID-19 traces on those packages of Ecuadorian shrimps was anything other than co-incidental

[kiora]

Money matters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-finance-jv-idUSKBN25I0LP

[Davexl]

Wine-dumping ‘investigation’ shows Australian businesses must plan for Chinese coercion

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/wine-dumping-investigation-shows-australian-businesses-must-plan-for-chinese-coercion/

Lessons to be factored into China facing Company Board / Investor thinking. Applies in NZ too...

[Davexl]

Golden touch: Is Warren Buffett betting against America?


https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/golden-touch-is-warren-buffett-betting-against-america-20200824-p55opb.html (https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/golden-touch-is-warren-buffett-betting-against-america-20200824-p55opb.html)

It’s not just the debt and the Fed’s loose monetary policies that are undermining – some say debasing
– the US dollar. There’s the loss of US credibility flowing from its mishandling of the pandemic, its political
instability and the incoherence and lack of predictability in its relationships with the rest of the world.

[Davexl]

The world according to Jerome: Markets on edge ahead of virtual meeting

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-world-according-to-jerome-markets-on-edge-ahead-of-virtual-meeting-20200825-p55p2e.html

'While a shift from a hard ceiling on inflation to a soft floor might not appear radical, it would leave the Fed open to the charge that where bubbles in financial markets have been a unintended consequence of its post-GFC policies the formalisation of a new policy would see the Fed knowingly inflating them further and increasing the risk of another, more catastrophic, financial crisis.'

[Davexl]

Example of the impact of geopolitical tensions on commercial transactions in Aust...

Beverages group Lion abandons $600 million China dairy sale

https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/beverages-group-lion-abandons-600-million-china-dairy-sale-20200825-p55p1p.html

Mr Frydenberg, who did not publicly announce he would block the deal amid rising geopolitical tensions
between Australia and the Chinese Communist Party, quietly told Mengniu Dairy in August that it would
not go ahead.
The Chinese government-owned food company COFCO holds about a 16 per cent stake in Mengniu,
which itself is listed in Hong Kong.

[Davexl]

Merkel tells Russia to investigate suspected poisoning of Kremlin critic


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-politics-navalny-healthcare/merkel-tells-russia-to-investigate-suspected-poisoning-of-kremlin-critic-idUSKBN25K0HM

[Davexl]

Why there won’t be a US-China war China has spent massively on anti-access/area denial weapons that would make war impractical for the US

https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/why-there-wont-be-a-us-china-war/ (https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/why-there-wont-be-a-us-china-war/)

[GTM 3442]

Why there won’t be a US-China war China has spent massively on anti-access/area denial weapons that would make war impractical for the US

https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/why-there-wont-be-a-us-china-war/ (https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/why-there-wont-be-a-us-china-war/)

And has managed to mount them well out at sea. And has avoided the US situation where the loss of Guam pushes the US back to Hawaii.


And, as Stalin pointed out, "quantity has it's own quality". After all, Aegis does not have infinite capacity - and remind me, where does "infinity" begin?

[Cyclical]

Cyber attack (DDoS) brought down the NZX yesterday arvo...who and why I wonder?

[Davexl]

And has managed to mount them well out at sea. And has avoided the US situation where the loss of Guam pushes the US back to Hawaii.


And, as Stalin pointed out, "quantity has it's own quality". After all, Aegis does not have infinite capacity - and remind me, where does "infinity" begin?


In case of the loss of Guam, Wake Island is being developed as a partial fallback position:

US preps for Pacific conflict with Wake Island expansion

https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/us-preps-for-pacific-conflict-with-airfield-expansion-on-wake-island/ (https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/us-preps-for-pacific-conflict-with-airfield-expansion-on-wake-island/)

[Davexl]

Cyber attack (DDoS) brought down the NZX yesterday arvo...who and why I wonder?

If anyone has access to the Herald subscription, could they paste any pertinent details here - thanks...

[peat]

If anyone has access to the Herald subscription, could they paste any pertinent details here - thanks...

From Business Desk.

NZX was the victim of an offshore internet attack which closed down trading just before 4pm this afternoon.
Internet provider Spark said in a statement NZX experienced a "volumetric DDoS (distributed denial of service) attack" from offshore, which impacted NZX system connectivity.
As a result NZX decided to halt trading in its cash markets at approximately 15.57.
A DDoS attack aims to disrupt service by saturating a network with significant volumes of internet traffic.
Spark said the attack was able to be mitigated and connectivity has now been restored for NZX.
At its premature close the S&P/NZX 50 Index was trading at a near to a record high.
The outage resulted in brokers being unable to access NZX’s systems or data via the internet.

Probably just a trial run eh ?

[peat]

prev post was from last night
just reading this mornings emails now and find more

The international cyberattack that took down the New Zealand stock exchange's public website (https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/nzx-early-halt-to-trading-caused-by-offshore-internet-attack) and public announcements platform is thought to have come from China or Russia.
BusinessDesk understands the attack, which saw the NZX halt trading at 3.57pm yesterday afternoon (https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/trading-on-nzx-halted-as-connection-lost) – just over an hour before the market was due to stop trading for the day - is now the subject of an intensive response by NZ and its western allied intelligence agencies.
The Government Communications Securities Bureau swung into action as soon as the offshore attack occurred and will undoubtedly have involved counterpart agencies among the so-called Five Eyes intelligence grouping involving the US, UK, Australia and Canada, as well as NZ.
CERT NZ, which coordinates with other agencies to support those affected by cyber attacks, declined to comment on whether or not it was involved in the NZX response.
The attack itself, a so-called Distributed Denial of Service attack, was directed at telecommunications provider Spark, rather than directly at NZX.

[Cyclical]

The attack itself, a so-called Distributed Denial of Service attack, was directed at telecommunications provider Spark, rather than directly at NZX.

Hey peat, where are you getting that from? It's not what Spark are saying.

[Zaphod]

Hey peat, where are you getting that from? It's not what Spark are saying.

FYI Business Desk appear to have reported that word-for-word. This appears to be unverified at this stage though.

[Davexl]

From Business Desk.

NZX was the victim of an offshore internet attack which closed down trading just before 4pm this afternoon.
Internet provider Spark said in a statement NZX experienced a "volumetric DDoS (distributed denial of service) attack" from offshore, which impacted NZX system connectivity.
As a result NZX decided to halt trading in its cash markets at approximately 15.57.
A DDoS attack aims to disrupt service by saturating a network with significant volumes of internet traffic.
Spark said the attack was able to be mitigated and connectivity has now been restored for NZX.
At its premature close the S&P/NZX 50 Index was trading at a near to a record high.
The outage resulted in brokers being unable to access NZX’s systems or data via the internet.

Probably just a trial run eh ?


Thanks Peat - looks like someone didn't pay for their Cloudflare subscription, or all the Telco security gurus have buggered off to live in Vancouver...
Two of my senior security professionals from my own Telco / network security days did just that!

[peat]

yeh I almost mentioned cloudflare and whether it had been deployed - as I had seen it used by crypto mining websites - they were constantly being bombarded

[peat]

Probably just a trial run eh ?

I wasnt kidding and neither are they

[peat]

Hey peat, where are you getting that from? It's not what Spark are saying.

heres an up to date freebie that they have offered so kindly.
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/nzx-down-in-second-day-of-complex-attack

[Cyclical]

heres an up to date freebie that they have offered so kindly.
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/nzx-down-in-second-day-of-complex-attack

Thanks. No where in there does it say the attack was targeted at Spark and not NZX...perhaps earlier releases were a bit hasty.

"The exchange’s network service provider, Spark New Zealand, said yesterday’s attack targeted NZX but that the scale saturated its internet traffic and caused connectivity issues for some other customers."

It's certainly malicious and pretty concerning. Will be interesting to hear what conclusions, if any, are drawn on the motive. It's a reminder that we are pretty isolated here in little wee NZ and it doesn't take a lot to disrupt our connectivity with the rest of the world.

[peat]

not being able to transact for a few hours shouldnt matter to most portfolios
and they have clearly stated that it didnt penetrate their systems

[Zaphod]

Thanks. No where in there does it say the attack was targeted at Spark and not NZX...perhaps earlier releases were a bit hasty.

"The exchange’s network service provider, Spark New Zealand, said yesterday’s attack targeted NZX but that the scale saturated its internet traffic and caused connectivity issues for some other customers."

It's certainly malicious and pretty concerning. Will be interesting to hear what conclusions, if any, are drawn on the motive. It's a reminder that we are pretty isolated here in little wee NZ and it doesn't take a lot to disrupt our connectivity with the rest of the world.

Despite our geographic isolation and relative neutral political position, we are a key member of the five eyes network and have recently criticised the actions of specific countries, which makes the country a target for international actors. Attribution is however always difficult.


not being able to transact for a few hours shouldnt matter to most portfolios
and they have clearly stated that it didnt penetrate their systems

This could be regarded as a clear warning shot across our collective bow, or it could be a warm up exercise. Denying access to the NZX on an ongoing basis would be severely detrimental to the country.

[GTM 3442]

The first DDOD attack was reported by Stuff as "On Tuesday afternoon the NZX was brought to an abrupt halt just before 4pm due to a major power outage caused by a distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack from overseas"

My reading of this is that the New Zealand electricity distribution system was successfully attacked, resulting in power outages.

However I have not seen any other references to " . . a major power outage" anywhere else, but I have not seen a correction to the Stuff story either.

So possibly Stuff staff are writing about something outside their (and their source's) field of expertise.

Once upon a time, New Zealand could rely on geography as a form of defence. Now, New Zealand is just a node on a global network. And one node leads to another. . .

Personally, I suspect that the NZX is incidental, and that the real point of the exercise is to examine the speed, quality, and effectiveness of the response.

[peat]

This could be regarded as a clear warning shot across our collective bow, or it could be a warm up exercise. Denying access to the NZX on an ongoing basis would be severely detrimental to the country.

yeh I said the first was a trial run before the second was reported.

[Zaphod]

The first DDOD attack was reported by Stuff as "On Tuesday afternoon the NZX was brought to an abrupt halt just before 4pm due to a major power outage caused by a distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack from overseas"

My reading of this is that the New Zealand electricity distribution system was successfully attacked, resulting in power outages.

However I have not seen any other references to " . . a major power outage" anywhere else, but I have not seen a correction to the Stuff story either.


Power networks are usually attacked via network infiltration rather than a raw DDoS attack. Conceivably if some component of the power network was internet facing (I'm struggling to think of an example though) a DDoS could result in an outage, but I think this is extremely unlikely especially when coupled with the lack of any publicly reported incidents of mass outages.

[GTM 3442]

Power networks are usually attacked via network infiltration rather than a raw DDoS attack. Conceivably if some component of the power network was internet facing (I'm struggling to think of an example though) a DDoS could result in an outage, but I think this is extremely unlikely especially when coupled with the lack of any publicly reported incidents of mass outages.

Yes, well I thought it didn't make a lot of sense either, given the lack of reporting around "major power outages", but there it was, in black and white.

I still think that the actual "target" was the response.

[Davexl]

Example of the impact of geopolitical tensions on commercial transactions in Aust...

Beverages group Lion abandons $600 million China dairy sale

https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/beverages-group-lion-abandons-600-million-china-dairy-sale-20200825-p55p1p.html


Following on from the above:

China warns of 'shadow' over ties with Australia, tells it to stop whining

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-australia/china-warns-of-shadow-over-ties-with-australia-tells-it-to-stop-whining-idUSKBN25M0MH

[Davexl]

China flexes at US in four seas show of force


China conducts near-simultaneous massive naval drills for first time in a tit-for-tat response to perceived US provocations

by Richard Javad Heydarian

(https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/china-flexes-at-us-in-four-seas-show-of-force)https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/china-flexes-at-us-in-four-seas-show-of-force/

[Davexl]

South Korea's predicament:

Moon risks U.S. rift with China policy, top South Korean opposition lawmaker says

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/26/asia-pacific/moon-risks-u-s-rift-china-policy-top-south-korean-opposition-lawmaker-says/

(Remember to delete your cookies & refresh if necessary)

Excerpt:

South Korea is caught between maintaining strong ties with China — its biggest trading partner — and the U.S., its main military ally and a key market for the exports that power its economy. The pressure has only picked up as the U.S. has sought help to block China’s push into regional waters and Moon’s progressives have been criticized for keeping silent about Beijing’s moves seen as suppressing democracy in Hong Kong.

[Davexl]

China’s expansionism enters dangerous phase

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/08/25/commentary/world-commentary/china-expansionism/

(Remember to delete your cookies & refresh if necessary)


Longtime Japan Times contributor Brahma Chellaney is a geostrategist and the author of nine books,
including the award-winning “Water: Asia’s New Battleground.”

Excerpt:

"Recently, Chinese state media (https://akhbor-rus.com/-p5064-162.htm) suddenly discovered that Tajikistan’s Pamir Mountains historically “belong to China.” Earlier in May, the state-run media claimed (https://www.brookings.edu/events/global-china-webinar-assessing-chinas-growing-regional-influence-and-strategy/) that Mount Everest, the world’s tallest peak on the Nepal-Tibet border that symbolizes Nepalese sovereignty, was wholly in China."

[Cyclical]

Despite our geographic isolation and relative neutral political position, we are a key member of the five eyes network and have recently criticised the actions of specific countries, which makes the country a target for international actors. Attribution is however always difficult.

This could be regarded as a clear warning shot across our collective bow, or it could be a warm up exercise. Denying access to the NZX on an ongoing basis would be severely detrimental to the country.


Personally, I suspect that the NZX is incidental, and that the real point of the exercise is to examine the speed, quality, and effectiveness of the response.

I think you guys might be on track tbh. I have a sneaking suspicion this little episode we're going through is just a probing exercise while at the same time a little reminder. Having a crack at the NZX gets noticed by enough people and it is a piece of NZ's infrastructure that should have a certain amount of controls in place to help mitigate against this to an extent. Potentially Spark could have better controls at the front gate too that could use automation to block this stuff closer to real time, but it would be a dangerous trade off between having a fairly open Internet here versus a great firewall of China approach, and it probably lies outside of Spark's mandate currently. But this attack my have implications on that front and we may find some moves by the government to strengthen their powers on the control of our global Internet gateways (cue the civil libertarians).

[Cyclical]

Power networks are usually attacked via network infiltration rather than a raw DDoS attack. Conceivably if some component of the power network was internet facing (I'm struggling to think of an example though) a DDoS could result in an outage, but I think this is extremely unlikely especially when coupled with the lack of any publicly reported incidents of mass outages.

With IOT, convergence of what was traditionally the instrument and electrical realm with the IT realm, the need for remote access via the Internet for this that and everything else, particularly for provisioning of new globally sourced equipment sans the overseas specialists in a travel constrained world atm, I'm afraid there are heaps of back doors just waiting to be exploited.

[Davexl]

With IOT, convergence of what was traditionally the instrument and electrical realm with the IT realm, the need for remote access via the Internet for this that and everything else, particularly for provisioning of new globally sourced equipment sans the overseas specialists in a travel constrained world atm, I'm afraid there are heaps of back doors just waiting to be exploited.

Yes, I find it very concerning that in the fast developing IOT world, there is a lack of standardisation of security and firmware / software updating requirements able to be mandated for the end-point devices / sensors on the network. With 5G enabling IOT on the network, this standardising of protocols is extremely urgent, and is an example of where China & the US need to cooperate to ensure unified standards regimes. Typically this work would be carried out by the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) as for other TCP/IP protocols.

[Cyclical]

Yes, I find it very concerning that in the fast developing IOT world, there is a lack of standardisation of security and firmware / software updating requirements able to be mandated for the end-point devices / sensors on the network. With 5G enabling IOT on the network, this standardising of protocols is extremely urgent, and is an example of where China & the US need to cooperate to ensure unified standards regimes. Typically this work would be carried out by the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) as for other TCP/IP protocols.

Thing is, you can put all sorts of controls in place, and then no sooner your back is turned, someone who just doesn't understand the risks has tethered their laptop off their mobile and run up TeamViewer or the likes while patched into a process control network, thereby circumventing all your hard work. I'm really not sure what the answer is.

[Zaphod]

With IOT, convergence of what was traditionally the instrument and electrical realm with the IT realm, the need for remote access via the Internet for this that and everything else, particularly for provisioning of new globally sourced equipment sans the overseas specialists in a travel constrained world atm, I'm afraid there are heaps of back doors just waiting to be exploited.

Agreed - My point is that there's no evidence that this attack resulted in or was brought about by the compromisation of the NZX core network, as others have eluded to.


Yes, I find it very concerning that in the fast developing IOT world, there is a lack of standardisation of security and firmware / software updating requirements able to be mandated for the end-point devices / sensors on the network. With 5G enabling IOT on the network, this standardising of protocols is extremely urgent, and is an example of where China & the US need to cooperate to ensure unified standards regimes. Typically this work would be carried out by the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) as for other TCP/IP protocols.

Yes, this is a huge & very quickly emerging issue with some very significant issues surrounding national security. The public for the most part don't understand (who would want to compromise my fridge anyway?) and don't care (I don't want to pay more for my devices, or it's not my problem). It will certainly require an international multipronged approach to solve. The current geopolitical troubles with the chief manufacturer of these devices, may actually help this situation in some respects.

[Davexl]

U.S.-China Tensions Rise With Ballistic Missile Tests, Sanctionshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-26/u-s-adds-24-chinese-firms-to-restricted-list-on-south-china-sea

U.S.-China tensions over the South China Sea escalated on Wednesday, with Beijing firing four missiles into the waters around
the same time as the Trump administration took action against Chinese companies that helped set up outposts in the disputed region.

[GTM 3442]

<snip>

The public for the most part don't understand (who would want to compromise my fridge anyway?)

<snip>



Well maybe some bad person want to compromise your fridge, because it's a node on a network, and one node leads to another node, which leads to another node. . . .and so it goes on.

Alternatively, your fridge is smart enough that once compromised, it can join in the fun as an active participant in a botnet attack on . . . . somewhere more interesting than your fridge.

Now, out of idle curiosity, while all eyes are on the NZX in the blue corner, what's happening over there in the green corner?

[Davexl]

Well maybe some bad person want to compromise your fridge, because it's a node on a network, and one node leads to another node, which leads to another node. . . .and so it goes on.

Alternatively, your fridge is smart enough that once compromised, it can join in the fun as an active participant in a botnet attack on . . . . somewhere more interesting than your fridge.

Now, out of idle curiosity, while all eyes are on the NZX in the blue corner, what's happening over there in the green corner?

Surprised the NZX haven't been interviewed yet. Would have thought public relations might be doing more damage control by now perhaps?

[Davexl]

U.S. 'won't cede an inch' in Pacific, Esper says in swipe at China

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-defence-china/u-s-wont-cede-an-inch-in-pacific-esper-says-in-swipe-at-china-idUSKBN25N0D6

(https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-defence-china/u-s-wont-cede-an-inch-in-pacific-esper-says-in-swipe-at-china-idUSKBN25N0D6)However, while the United States aims to deter China, it also wants to “hopefully continue to work with the
People’s Republic of China to get them back on a trajectory that is more aligned with the international rules based order,” Esper said.

[Davexl]

'China says U.S. South China Sea sanctions are unjust' - Oh Really? You must be kidding me!

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-southchinasea-companies-min/china-says-u-s-south-china-sea-sanctions-are-unjust-idUSKBN25N0TW

[Davexl]

China Belt and Road plans for Australia face veto under new law

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/27/asia-pacific/china-belt-road-australia-veto/

The legislation will be introduced next week by Morrison’s conservative government, which is in the midst of a deepening diplomatic spat with China. It will cover a broad range of sectors, including infrastructure, trade cooperation, tourism, cultural collaboration, science, health and education, including university research partnerships.

So what is happening in little old naive, weak-kneed NZ? Nothing, Absolutely nothing!

[GTM 3442]

Meanwhile, over to the west in the jewel in the crown. . .

https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/how-china-lost-nigeria/


And a little closer to home. . .

https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/why-bangladesh-reaches-out-to-china/

[Davexl]

Meanwhile, over to the west in the jewel in the crown. . .

https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/how-china-lost-nigeria/


And a little closer to home. . .

https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/why-bangladesh-reaches-out-to-china/


Interesting articles. Clearly demonstrating the power of words and the underlying 'narrative' and the effect they have.
Thanks to the values based approach of the US under Barack Obama, Nigeria has been looking to the West.
My concern would be in the nature of 'values' the US has been advertising under Donald Trump's regime - hopefully the diplomatic professionals remain in charge.

Water wars / diplomacy are becoming hugely important under climate change pressures too of course. Bangladesh seems to be attempting to do all the right 'clever' things to balance its relationship between India & China - it's a shame that India can't be a little more 'forthcoming' with Bangladesh in the greater area interest. The outcome of China's Belt & Road initiative is still up in the air.

As I understand it, NZ itself is a signatory to the Belt & Road (as are some Aust states), at least initially, but the newly aggressive Xi regime is undermining any latent soft-power benefits China may have otherwise garnered for itself.
Australia has definitely woken up to this fact now also, with its change in legislation next week...

Thanks for the PM also GTM...

[Davexl]

A clear-eyed and dispassionate view of the current situation as seen by Taiwan...

ASPI Webinar: Indo-Pacific Leaders Dialogue - Taiwan

https://www.aspi.org.au/event/indo-pacific-leaders-dialogue-taiwan

The discussion will reflect the themes of the address as well as examine the President’s answers to five questions posed by ASPI,
covering Taiwan’s Covid-19 experience, the One China policy, self defence, independence or reunification, and risks of future conflicts.


Register now to watch this virtual event live or on-demand.

[greater fool]

This may have more geo political consequences than Aussie sheep bleating about spies.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3097807/japan-pms-health-question-rumours-swirl-successors-jostle

Missing the schism now under way? It's easy to react to the latest Fakebook post and miss the transformational. There is an opportunity that Japan may move away from the hegemony of the Great Satan. :t_up:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/28/national/politics-diplomacy/shinzo-abe-resign/


(https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/28/national/politics-diplomacy/shinzo-abe-resign/)https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/26/national/donald-trump-second-term-japan-us/
(https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/26/national/donald-trump-second-term-japan-us/)
https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/abes-demise-could-make-japan-great-again/

[GTM 3442]

Meanwhile, Russia and China start to re-define their relationship. . .


https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/rosnefts-vietnam-exit-hints-at-russia-inc-s-future-in-asia/

[Davexl]

Finally, a more principled, more nuanced approach to managing the Huawei / China relationship
that doesn't damage US' security interests (esp Taiwan) and its allies diplomatic interests (with China)

'Washington’s China policy has lost its Wei'

US needs new strategy of ‘principled interdependence’ to address Huawei and China’s high-tech risks

https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/washingtons-china-policy-has-lost-its-wei/

"In addition, having Huawei and other Chinese firms integrated into US-led ecosystems is not just smart business, it also makes the US safer. China is less likely to make radical advancements or place backdoors in its silicon when its products are rooted in our (US) foundational technologies. And because of close commercial ties, the US has greater visibility into the progress China does make."

"Having a stake in each other’s success helps cement closer US ties with South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and ASEAN, and all of them with each other. A similar logic of shared interests because of economic interdependence has tempered China’s diplomatic and security behavior over the long run.
Chinese actions in the South China Sea and elsewhere are deeply troubling, but fewer economic ties would lower the costs of such actions to China."

[Davexl]

China, U.S. tensions raise Taiwan conflict fears

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/29/asia-pacific/china-u-s-tensions-raise-taiwan-conflict-fears/

“By simultaneously conducting drills in the three seas, it means China is testing its ability to fight enemies
coming from three directions at the same time — for example from Taiwan, from Japan and from the U.S. from the south,” he said.
“Historically, frequent drills are a clear predictor of war.”

"A hypothetical scenario spelled out in a recent essay by James Winnefeld, a former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
and Michael Morrell, former acting director of the Central Intelligence Agency, has made the rounds in Taiwan security circles.

In their suggested sequence of events, set out in the Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, a disputed U.S. election
gives China the opportunity to move on Taiwan while Washington and the rest of the world are distracted."

[greater fool]

Missing the schism now under way? It's easy to react to the latest Fakebook post and miss the transformational. There is an opportunity that Japan may move away from the hegemony of the Great Satan. :t_up:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/28/national/politics-diplomacy/shinzo-abe-resign/


(https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/28/national/politics-diplomacy/shinzo-abe-resign/)https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/26/national/donald-trump-second-term-japan-us/
(https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/26/national/donald-trump-second-term-japan-us/)
https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/abes-demise-could-make-japan-great-again/


Legacies of WWII and occupation.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/30/national/us-occupation-japan-wwii-anniversary/

[Davexl]

Legacies of WWII and occupation.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/30/national/us-occupation-japan-wwii-anniversary/

An excellent summary history lesson on Japan's legacy. Thank You. I personally don't believe that Japan has ever fully atoned for its war-time atrocities against China & Korea, or the US & its allies either - compared with Germany. There is still work to do, for the living that remain, and for the next generation who remember what happened...

[Davexl]

A subtle policy shift, while claiming it's not - something to build on?

"U.S. announces Taiwan initiative, declassifies documents, citing China pressure"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-taiwan-dialogue/u-s-announces-taiwan-initiative-declassifies-documents-citing-china-pressure-idUSKBN25R2WJ

[greater fool]

A hawk in the Pentagon reckons the Bear is coming to get the sacred Eagle.
Think he is trying to influence defence policy commitments leading up to an election?

https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/russias-pacific-fleet-conducts-drills-near-alaska/

https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/red-alert-new-usaf-chief-is-pulling-no-punches/

[Davexl]

More coercive actions against Aust business / trade activity. Aust's worsening situation...

China ramps up coercive diplomacy as Australian winemakers hit twice

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/china-ramps-up-coercive-diplomacy-as-australian-winemakers-hit-twice-20200831-p55qv2.html

"A new report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute has called for a broad coalition of countries to be formed to
call out the CCP's increased use of coercive diplomacy and to factor in the heightened risk of doing business with China.

The report documents 152 instances of Chinese Communist Party acts of coercive diplomacy
between 2010 and 2020, with a sharp escalation beginning two years ago.

Of the 19 cases of trade restrictions over the past 10 years, more than half occurred since 2018."

[Davexl]

With eye on China, U.S. aims to 'formalize' four-nation 'Quad' security grouping

Move comes as Japan, Australia, India and U.S. harden line on Beijing

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/09/01/asia-pacific/china-us-quad/

“I think there’s plenty of reason to bring other countries into this discussion as well,” he said,
noting recent talks on how to grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic that included senior officials
from the four countries and South Korea, Vietnam and New Zealand.

[Davexl]

Defying China’s wrath, Czech senator delivers Taiwan speech
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/01/defying-chinas-wrath-czech-senator-delivers-taiwan-speech.html

"Defying anger from China (https://www.cnbc.com/china-politics/), the president of the Czech Republic’s Senate addressed Taiwan’s national legislature
on Tuesday, offering a strong rebuke to authoritarian politics and Beijing’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy."

[Davexl]

Detention of (Australian) CGTN anchor shows that in Xi Jinping's China, not even the propagandists are safe


https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/01/media/china-cgtn-cheng-lei-rsdl-intl-hnk/index.html

"Speaking to Sydney radio station 2GB Tuesday, Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne could not say
why Cheng has been detained since August 14, but described the idea that Cheng could be used by
China as a pawn in the deteriorating relationship between the two countries as "speculative at best.""

[Davexl]

Donald Trump could win the US election for the same reason he won last timehttps://www.smh.com.au/national/donald-trump-could-win-the-us-election-for-the-same-reason-he-won-last-time-20200901-p55r6r.html

"The great outsourcing of America was backed by Republicans and Democrats, so both became the enemy. When Trump emerged, devotees saw him as a revolutionary vandal. They did not want him to go to Washington and fix it; they wanted him to burn it down. They wanted to inflict a measure of the pain they felt and the louder the mainstream media complained the more convinced they became that he was their man."

[GTM 3442]

I see that China and India are once again inching closer to another standoff in Ladakh

https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/lac-china-violates-military-consensus-to-change-status-quo/cid/1790637

[Davexl]

Following on from the evening news...

Novichok poisoning of Navalny will heighten tensions between Russia and west


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/02/novichok-poisoning-navalny-tensions-russia-west-analysis

[Davexl]

Using novichok against Navalny is a Russian message of menace
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/02/using-novichok-against-navalny-is-a-russian-message-of-menace

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/02/using-novichok-against-navalny-is-a-russian-message-of-menace)'One theory is that Putin has been spooked by recent protests, both in neighbouring Belarus (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/30/reporting-on-belarus-courage-violence-and-creepers-with-cameras) and in Russia’s far east, where locals have been protesting for weeks in the city of Khabarovsk against the dismissal of a popular mayor. Putin is determined to avoid the mass demonstrations seen in Minsk against his neighbour Alexander Lukashenko (https://www.theguardian.com/world/alexander-lukashenko). By removing the country’s foremost opposition leader, this scenario becomes less likely.'



(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/02/using-novichok-against-navalny-is-a-russian-message-of-menace)

[Davexl]

Where things stand, uneasily...

China's rise takes the world into uncharted watershttps://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/09/04/asia-pacific/china-world-power-feature/

[Davexl]

Germany wades into the Indo-Pacific fray

“[W]e wish that the sea trade routes stay free and safe, because they are important for all,” said the German leader. At the time, Merkel also emphasized the importance of “multinational courts” and international arbitration as “an option for a solution” of maritime disputes.

This was seen as implicit support for the Philippines’ arbitral complaint filed against China at The Hague, which Manila eventually won in July 2016.

On the occasion, Merkel gave an early 18th century map of China that graphically questioned Beijing’s “historic” claims to both Taiwan and the bulk of South China Sea.

[GTM 3442]

Using novichok against Navalny is a Russian message of menace
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/02/using-novichok-against-navalny-is-a-russian-message-of-menace

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/02/using-novichok-against-navalny-is-a-russian-message-of-menace)'One theory is that Putin has been spooked by recent protests, both in neighbouring Belarus (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/30/reporting-on-belarus-courage-violence-and-creepers-with-cameras) and in Russia’s far east, where locals have been protesting for weeks in the city of Khabarovsk against the dismissal of a popular mayor. Putin is determined to avoid the mass demonstrations seen in Minsk against his neighbour Alexander Lukashenko (https://www.theguardian.com/world/alexander-lukashenko). By removing the country’s foremost opposition leader, this scenario becomes less likely.'



(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/02/using-novichok-against-navalny-is-a-russian-message-of-menace)




You may also consider that ". . . removing the country's foremost opposition leader. . . " creates the focal point of a martyr. And as the Christian churches so amply demonstrate, movements thrive on martyrs.


As for Belarus, I'm not sure that you have to look much further than Ukraine or Georgia for a glimpse of Belarus' likely future.

[greater fool]

Using novichok against Navalny is a Russian message of menace


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/02/using-novichok-against-navalny-is-a-russian-message-of-menace

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/02/using-novichok-against-navalny-is-a-russian-message-of-menace)'One theory is that Putin has been spooked by recent protests, both in neighbouring Belarus (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/30/reporting-on-belarus-courage-violence-and-creepers-with-cameras) and in Russia’s far east, where locals have been protesting for weeks in the city of Khabarovsk against the dismissal of a popular mayor. Putin is determined to avoid the mass demonstrations seen in Minsk against his neighbour Alexander Lukashenko (https://www.theguardian.com/world/alexander-lukashenko). By removing the country’s foremost opposition leader, this scenario becomes less likely.'


What's the real story?

https://off-guardian.org/2020/06/19/5-facts-bbcs-the-salisbury-poisonings-forgot-to-mention/ (https://off-guardian.org/2020/06/19/5-facts-bbcs-the-salisbury-poisonings-forgot-to-mention/)

Also, just another 'fact'........

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porton_Down

"Porton Down is located just northeast of the village of Porton (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porton_(village)) near Salisbury (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salisbury,_England), in Wiltshire (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wiltshire), England. To the northwest lies the MoD Boscombe Down (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MoD_Boscombe_Down) airfield operated by QinetiQ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QinetiQ). On some maps, the land surrounding the complex is identified as a "Danger Area".[3]" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porton_Down#cite_note-3)

[peat]

Germany signalled it is prepared to reconsider its Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project with Russia in light of the poisoning of Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny, who was roused from an induced coma on Monday.

[GTM 3442]

Germany signalled it is prepared to reconsider its Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project with Russia in light of the poisoning of Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny, who was roused from an induced coma on Monday.

Which raises the twin questions of:

Where will Germany/Europe buy their gas?
Where can Russia sell their gas?

[jonu]

Which raises the twin questions of:

Where will Germany/Europe buy their gas?
Where can Russia sell their gas?

Europe won't be in a mood to mess with gas supply heading in to Winter. Putin can turn the tap off for a few weeks/months if he is so inclined. Why do you think he was allowed to walk into Crimea?

[LEMON]

New to this thread out of interest

I believe this is a great book to understand the direction of the world in the coming years.

The New silk roads by Peter Frankopan

Real Eye opener on why America is isolating itself, China is becoming an aggressor and why maybe Asia will possibly be the new west within time.

[Davexl]

Australia faces down China in high-stakes strategic shift
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/09/08/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/australia-china-strategy/

Make up your own mind New Zealand, try waking up first...

[greater fool]

Make up your own mind New Zealand, try waking up first...

Scott Morrison's has a buzz in his head that he thinks is divine, but is really coming from 5g radio waves.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-prays-for-australia-in-video-for-christians-20200401-p54g2o.html

[Davexl]

US plans big expansion of navy fleet to challenge growing Chinese sea power https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/17/us-plans-big-expansion-of-navy-fleet-to-challenge-growing-chinese-sea-power (http://US plans big expansion of navy fleet to challenge growing Chinese sea power)

[Davexl]

Taiwan calls for global coalition against China's aggression as US official flies in

Taipei speaks of ‘real possibility’ of war as US undersecretary for economic affairs pays visit that Beijing regards as provocative




https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/17/taiwan-calls-for-global-coalition-against-chinas-aggression-as-us-official-flies-in

[greater fool]

US plans big expansion of navy fleet to challenge growing Chinese sea power

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/17/us-plans-big-expansion-of-navy-fleet-to-challenge-growing-chinese-sea-power (http://US plans big expansion of navy fleet to challenge growing Chinese sea power)

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3101973/us-navy-build-plans-may-cement-chinas-resolve-modernise

"the risks of naval confrontation between the two countries are increasing, because the ‘freedom of navigation’ appeal by the US is in essence to maintain its own hegemonic status and, in this sense, Washington is destined to clamp down on every Chinese move that will help the Chinese naval capability build up,”


https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3048967/us-freedom-navigation-patrols-south-china-sea-hit-record-high

https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/navy-warships-conduct-back-to-back-freedom-of-navigation-operations-in-south-china-sea-1.627890

https://thediplomat.com/2020/01/south-china-sea-us-littoral-combat-ship-conducts-freedom-of-navigation-operation/

https://thediplomat.com/2020/07/us-conducts-freedom-of-navigation-operation-near-china-held-features-in-spratlys/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-china-southchinasea-pm/australia-to-continue-to-support-freedomof-navigation-in-south-china-sea-pm-says-idUSKCN24H0D5

South China Sea - fear of the loss of hegemony.
Freedom of Navigation excercises were used in the Persian Gulf.
The USS Stark and USS Vincennes were able to "expose" National Security challenges.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Vincennes_(CG-49)
"dispatched to the Persian Gulf in 1988 in support of Operation Earnest Will during the Iran–Iraq War. Operating in this capacity the
cruiser shot down Iran Air Flight 655 over the Persian Gulf, killing 290 passengers and sparking an international incident between
Iran and the United States."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Stark_incident
"The USS Stark incident occurred during the Iran–Iraq War on 17 May 1987, when an Iraqi jet aircraft fired two Exocet missiles at
the American frigate USS Stark. A total of thirty-seven United States Navy personnel were killed or later died as a result of the attack,
and twenty-one were injured........................................... ..
Washington used the incident to pressure Iran, which it later blamed for the whole situation. President Reagan said "We've never
considered them [Iraq's military] hostile at all", and "the villain in the piece is Iran".[7][8][9]"

Freedom of Navigation exercises in South China Sea now risk a 'Gulf of Tonkin' incident.
https://www.britannica.com/event/Gulf-of-Tonkin-incident

https://www.smh.com.au/national/echoes-of-pearl-harbour-in-latest-us-moves-on-china-20200913-p55v4s.html

At the end of WWII America was at it's peak in warfaring. They tried to move on a weak China, weakened by its
civil war, by attacking through Korea. America got a bloody nose for their efforts.

https://koreanwarlegacy.org/chapters/north-toward-the-yalu-river/

[Davexl]

Taiwan pledges deeper U.S. ties as Chinese jets harry island
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/09/19/asia-pacific/china-flies-18-warplanes-near-taiwan-u-s-envoys-visit/

[Davexl]

Outgoing US ambassador to China blames Beijing for coronavirus as he heads home to help Trumphttps://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/18/asia/china-us-ambassador-terry-branstad-intl-hnk/index.html

And while Branstad said the US "has taken the lead" on holding Beijing to account, he pointed
to growing discontent elsewhere in the world, which he put down to China's increasingly aggressive
diplomacy, as well as the country's failure to contain the initial coronavirus outbreak.

"It's really I think the communist system of China, and their unwillingness to admit wrongdoing.
That caused this whole thing to happen. And that's the tragedy of it," Branstad said.


"Interest for people around the world in working with and supporting China has gone down
dramatically, not just in the United States."

[GTM 3442]

Thinking About China. . . another link to add to the pile.

https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/#chapter5

[GTM 3442]

A view from Germany. . . put it in the corner with the others

https://www.dw.com/en/taiwan-the-threat-that-the-world-ignores/a-54944934

[Davexl]

Donald Trump’s lonely victory in the Middle East

https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/donald-trumps-lonely-victory-in-the-middle-east/

(https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/donald-trumps-lonely-victory-in-the-middle-east/) "The US president has trampled over the conventional wisdom of the whole foreign policy establishment..."

This article attempts to adroitly explain the untangling of the Middle East cornucopia, attributing the victory to Trump.

While he may be the figurehead, clearly he personally doesn't have the wit or the machiavellian abilities to process damn near anything of substance,
the victory perhaps belongs to Jarad Kushner and his team.

Nonetheless, this article neatly untangles a swath of historical and current complexities and illustrates Trump's lucky victory of near & future outcomes.
Worth reading twice as a history lesson also - fills a lot of gaps in geopolitical understanding...




(https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/donald-trumps-lonely-victory-in-the-middle-east/)

[greater fool]

A view from Germany. . . put it in the corner with the others

https://www.dw.com/en/taiwan-the-threat-that-the-world-ignores/a-54944934

There are plenty of opinions around. Here's another one, with some background reasoning for the opinion;

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3101981/forget-china-america-biggest-warmonger-far
"The report calculates that the US “‘war on terror’” since the September 11 attacks (https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3101266/us-remembers-9/11-terror-attacks-coronavirus-alters) has cost not only millions of lives and injuries, but also forcibly displaced
at least 37 million people in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, the Philippines, Libya and Syria: “The US military has waged war continuously for
almost two decades,” it said.

“US forces have fought in wars or participated in other combat operations in at least 24 countries. The destruction inflicted by warfare in these countries has been incalculable for civilians and combatants, for US military personnel and their family members, and for entire societies.” ........................

"Whatever Pompeo and his colleagues say about China’s warmongering ambitions, it is again the US that leads the world by far in defence spending (https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3081643/military-spending-surged-us19-trillion-2019-biggest-increase).
Of the global total of US$1.92 trillion last year, the US accounted for 38 per cent"...........................

“We have met the enemy, and he is us”.
Today, it is no joke.If hot war (https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3096780/forget-cold-war-and-tiktok-wechat-bans-us-preparing-hot-war-china) is indeed an existential threat, then there is likely to be only one source – and it is not China."

[Davexl]

A view from Germany. . . put it in the corner with the others

https://www.dw.com/en/taiwan-the-threat-that-the-world-ignores/a-54944934

For me personally, the following rang true:

For Wu (the Foreign Minister), it is in the democratic world's own interests to support Taiwan against China's aggression — before it is too late. "They are trying to export the authoritarian international order while democracies are following the rule-based international order," he said. "If China succeeds in taking Taiwan over — I think the rest of the world, especially for democracies, is going to feel the heat. China is expanding outward. Taiwan happens to be on the front line."

[Davexl]

Japan’s new defense minister a blast from the past

Pacifism is giving way to collective defense and a first-strike capability

https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/japans-new-defense-minister-a-blast-from-the-past/

(https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/japans-new-defense-minister-a-blast-from-the-past/)"Japan has been pacifist and democratic for 75 years and received nothing but abuse from Koreans and Chinese the entire time.

There has been no appreciation for not attacking anyone (China attacked Vietnam in 1979),
not establishing a dictatorship, not sending troops to help the Americans butcher Vietnamese
(South Korean troops were renowned for their ferocity during the Vietnam War).

There have been endless complaints that Japan’s apologies are insincere, that Japan
remains a warmonger at heart and, from the Americans, that Japan is not pulling its weight militarily."


(https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/japans-new-defense-minister-a-blast-from-the-past/)

[greater fool]

Japan’s new defense minister a blast from the past
(https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/japans-new-defense-minister-a-blast-from-the-past/)

"Blast from the past". Exactly. The new Cabinet is a bunch ancient dinosaurs that should have been put out
to pasture a couple of decades ago. If they had a clue on how to revive Japan's stagnating economy it would
be showing signs of an improvement by now.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/sugas-team-looks-like-old-wine-in-a-new-bottle/

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3102020/why-suga-will-struggle-sustain-japans-balance-between-china-and-us

Japan will continue to stumble along, brown nosing America, and spending all their treasure on weaponry.
Apart from media; Hollywood, Nettricks, Fakebook: America's main exports are violence, and the means to prosecute violence, and Japan is playing that game.

https://www.reuters.com/places/japan/article/us-japan-economy-budget-defence/japan-government-approves-eighth-straight-defense-spending-hike-to-record-high-idUSKBN1YO05N

[Davexl]

Ren Zhiqiang - who called Chinese president a 'clown' - jailed for 18 years

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/22/ren-zhiqiang-who-called-chinese-president-a-clown-jailed-for-18-years

This man should have been supported for his free-speech rights, but Oh No, not under China's CCP!

That's the core of the problem - that the CCP can't handle criticism of any kind whatsoever and that will be
why China's backward regime will one day soon crumple under the weight of its own lies and inherent weakness...

[GTM 3442]

Shall we start a new pile for Turkey, or just biff it in the corner with the other non-China stuff?


https://www.yenisafak.com/en/columns/ibrahimkaragul/siege-theres-a-much-greater-plan-at-work-here-what-should-turkey-do-2047598

[Davexl]

"US-led coalition encircling China’s sea ambitions" by Richard Javad Heydarian

US engaging likeminded partners in anti-sub warfare while European allies pledge to counter China in the South China Sea

https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/us-led-coalition-encircling-chinas-sea-ambitions/

“China’s existence is indeed aggressive and will bring a definite threat,” responded Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen. “I believe these activities are no help to China’s international image, and what’s more have put Taiwan’s people even more on their guard.”

Tsai said recent provocations have helped foreign nations in “understanding even better the true nature of the Chinese communist regime.”