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stephen
07-10-2004, 05:51 PM
I hold a bunch of WOR and have been pretty happy - a 20% rise in share price in the last 9 months since I bought, and a wee dividend as well.

Today it seems they will be acquiring another, equally large company, paying for it in three ways: issuing debt, an "institutional placement" of shares, and a rights issue. They say the debt ratio of the new entity will be about 25%.

So: there has to be a way to figure out whether the rights issue is worth taking up, and what the value of shares in the new entity will be. But I don't feel I have the finance-fu to work this out properly. Any suggestions on a working approach would be much appreciated.

Stephen

OldRider
07-10-2004, 07:34 PM
At this stage I haven't seen that it is to be a rights issue,possibly will be another SPP, up to A$5000 per shareholder,I guess we will find out soon enough.Can't remember where I got this impression from,but as well that price would be near or at $3-60 which apparently was the placement price to institutions.

This was one of my picks for the ASX comp so has been worthwhile,just a little concern over their involvement in Iraq though.

My own valuation is $3-99 which is close to the current price with a sell at $4-73 so they are not a real bargain.If the price is set close to $3-60 I guess I will buy more.

PE=19, EPS 20.6, price 7.88 * NTA, DY 2.99%
My relative value 24.97 - over 25 is a buy

DISCL: Holder or WOR

SEC
07-10-2004, 08:37 PM
Oldrider, did you peruse the presentation sent to the ASX? It stated the SPP allotment would be 2 for 9. No monetary maximum.

Also, I find historical PEs worthless when estimating fair value. Forecast PE for WOR was 14 prior to the acquisition. If the bookbuild price is 360 odd, this won't change much due to the dilution effect of the new shares.

I intend to take up the maximum allowable amount. It's a case of damned if you do, damned if you don't. If I don't, UBS will get them for 360 and sell them to the market straight afterwards, suppressing the price.

Hopefully the bookbuild proves popular and something like 380 is obtained.

SEC (WOR holder)

OldRider
08-10-2004, 07:33 AM
SEC:I have not seen the ASX presentation,if as you say, then it is to be a tradeable rights issue not an SPP. I can't recall the source of my information, but certainly from internet,most probably a news item. I also got the impression the bookbuild had been completed at $3-60.Though seems possible I have got it wrong. Won't be long before we know for sure,but I agree with your view.

Both revenue and operating margin have been growing over the last few years,so your forward PE of 14 could easily be conservative if this is maintained.

SEC
08-10-2004, 08:32 AM
Oldrider, I don't know if it's a rights issue as such. Here's the relevant section from the presentation:

Up to 15% placement and 2 for 9 Entitlement Offer

Entitlement Offer is non-renounceable and Entitlements are nontransferable

Institutional offer via bookbuild on 7th and 8th October

Bookbuild underwritten at $3.60

Founder shareholders already committed
Total founder subscriptions for approximately $39 million
John Grill will participate for $13 million, approximately 56% of Entitlement

Balance of founder shares to be offered into the bookbuild

Applications under a
Public Offer can only be satisfied to the
extent there is a
shortfall in subscription under the Entitlement
Offer


I read it as a SPP up to a maximum of 2:9, non-transferable but underwritten.

SEC

OldRider
08-10-2004, 09:08 AM
SEC: Thanks for that,you seem to have got it better then me. Slightly unusual way though, and it doesn't give much choice whether to pay up for some more.Just as well there have been a lot of divvies both last and this month so bank can manage.

SEC
08-10-2004, 09:43 AM
I think it's a compromise between a rights issue where the right to purchase discounted shares is fully transferrable and a SPP, non transferrable but usually capped at $5K. I prefer this system since a rights issue always sees the share price drop, and at 2:9 I can purchase more than $5K worth of shares in the SPP.

SEC

SEC
08-10-2004, 08:21 PM
Holy **** the placement price was 410!!!!!

This sort of demand should see the market price up at least 10% on Monday to 430 - 440.

Apparently JP Morgan now values the stock at 485.

SEC

OldRider
09-10-2004, 06:01 AM
I presume there was a trading halt,as I noticed
bids well above offers late yesterday, near $4-30
if I recall correctly, but thought it was only someone making sure they got some on open.

Seems this could well be round the trading level next week - what price now for the SPP?. Apparently expected growth is higher than even than last year, makes my ideas of value a bit silly,but I can live with that seeing I already hold the stock.

SEC
09-10-2004, 09:34 AM
Oldrider, the SPP will be at the same price as the placement - 410.

For the instos to pay 410 for the placement and expect to take up their 2:9 entitlements they're expecting the market price to open well north of 410 on Monday.

SEC

OldRider
11-10-2004, 02:45 PM
Well,well, the price today has exceeded my expectations. Almost made $5.00 though down a touch in later trades.That's just over 50% for the calendar year. Expectations for profit growth
must be exceptional.

Easy choice about taking up the SPP,and perhaps even adding some more, just watch & wait for an opportunity.

SEC
11-10-2004, 08:08 PM
Stunning. Just stunning. +23% today!!!

The market has given WOR a resounding 'thumbs up' for its acquisition and future direction.

JPMorgan analysts have increased their 05 and 06 EPS estimates by 14% and 35% respectively (to 30 and 37cps). That puts the forward PE of 16 based on today's closing price, a bit more than pre-acquisition.

Yes Oldrider I've also got the chequebook ready for the 2:9 placement and buying more on the market on any retreat to <440.

SEC

soulman
11-10-2004, 10:14 PM
I has WOR as a day trading stock on MON and never did anything because I didn't expect them to open this high. I thought they might open in the $4.20's. Well done to those with WOR before the announcement.

soulman
12-10-2004, 03:05 PM
Turns out I should have have a dip.

SEC
28-02-2005, 08:20 PM
Been trying to break 600 for a while and today's good profit announcement was the catalyst. The broker upgrades will come tomorrow and 700 soon after. The 410 placement looks really cheap now. Oldrider and Stephen I presume you still hold, steady as she goes type company...

SEC

OldRider
01-03-2005, 07:33 AM
SEC: still holding, has been one of my best selections,though haven't worked out the exact return as a number of buys have been made since mid 2003, but surely must be close to annual rate of 100% over the last 18 to 20 months.

Could add some more, the thought of reducing hasn't occurred yet.

stephen
01-03-2005, 08:45 AM
Hah! No, I sold a month or so ao. Healthy profit, of course.

Maybe I should get back in...

stephen
01-03-2005, 08:46 AM
PS: learning a lot this year about itchy trigger fingers, and this is definitely one of the lessons.

SEC
01-03-2005, 07:20 PM
As expected, the brokers have upgraded their eps forecasts for WOR and it went up another 6% today. Well held, Oldrider. Stephen, shame about the trigger finger. If you want back in, I suggest you wait till after the ex-div date or on any dips approaching 600.

SEC

SEC
17-03-2005, 07:40 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

If you want back in, I suggest you wait till after the ex-div date or on any dips approaching 600.


Well that didn't work. I expected some weakness now it's gone ex-div (I wanted to top up) but it charged over 700 instead[V].

SEC

SEC
06-06-2005, 06:13 PM
"Worley Group - what to do?"

Buy/accumulate on dips (like in April) and hold - up to a record high today (760) and should charge further north on the back of continuing global resources and infrastructure boom.

Most of the listed engineering services companies are doing very well and the recent selloff provided some excellent buying opportunities - eg DOW, UGL, TSE and WOR.

SEC (DOW TSE WOR)

mark100
06-06-2005, 09:40 PM
Other engineering consultants that are going well are Cardno (cdd) and lycopodium (lyl). Both are smaller than wor but are also at a much lower pe and higher yield.

Lyl is WA based and services the mining sector.

Cdd is brisbane based and is supported by the ongoing infrastructure requirments in SE QLD.

cheers
Mark

SEC
07-06-2005, 07:44 PM
Thanks Mark. I had a quick look at LYL and CDD charts. Look OK, but lack the liquidity I require. My selection criteria include being able to rapidly buy/sell $60K. Unfortunately with these two I could be waiting days before $60K worth of stock are traded.

SEC

SEC
30-06-2005, 05:30 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

"Worley Group - what to do?"

Buy/accumulate on dips (like in April) and hold


Up 4% today to a record high. Did anyone else buy WOR in the recent dip? It (like TSE) was a sitter to go up on the back of the energy boom.

SEC (DOW TSE WOR)

stephen
30-06-2005, 08:29 PM
I wish I had, but I've had other calls on my funds. Good for you if you did!

SEC
25-08-2005, 04:53 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

"Worley Group - what to do?"

Buy/accumulate on dips (like in April) and hold - up to a record high today (760) and should charge further north on the back of continuing global resources and infrastructure boom.

Most of the listed engineering services companies are doing very well and the recent selloff provided some excellent buying opportunities - eg DOW, UGL, TSE and WOR.

SEC (DOW TSE WOR)



Once again Worley exceeds market expectations. Now $9 and up 150% since the Parsons acquisition. Companies providing services to the resource sector are the ones to be in at the moment. They have the added benefit of less volatility in their stock price. Anyway the analysts will issue their upgrades tomorrow and WOR is on its way to $10[:p].

SEC (DOW TSE WOR)

soulman
25-08-2005, 05:01 PM
I remember last year when they acquired Parsons, WOR was on $4.00 and searching to $4.50's. I thought that was overdone when institutional managers demand hard for the stocks. Well 100% gain ain't too bad as it turned out. Good luck to you all holders. I missed out even on MND when I sold too way too early. UGL, DOW, WOR, MND, COF and even MAH and TSE have done extremely well over the last 12 months.

SEC
25-08-2005, 05:23 PM
Soulman, I also was guilty of booking profits too early on some stocks (like selling Aristocrat for about $3.50 in early 2004[XX(]). Such lessons have taught me to let profits run and buy more in any dips and I haven't looked back.

SEC

Skol
25-08-2005, 09:41 PM
Jim Cramer who runs an extremely popular programme on CNBC says sell the oil companies and buy oil engineering. So far this has been excellent advice.

SEC
06-09-2005, 09:22 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

Anyway the analysts will issue their upgrades tomorrow and WOR is on its way to $10[:p].

SEC (DOW TSE WOR)


Ho ho ho.

SEC
28-12-2005, 09:05 PM
$12 now broken, ho ho ho. A 300+% return over 18 months on a boring old buy and hold strategy. I think it's the 4th best performer on the ASX200 but still barely gets a mention on this site. The punters can have their thrills on small cap speculative exploration plays and ramp them on the various websites but I'll stick to the ASX300 where much bigger absolute returns are possible and you don't have to watch your stocks like a hawk all day.

WOR might get a bit more mention with a possible inclusion into the ASX100 next year. It is currently 86th on the ASX market capitalisation ladder. Whiff of an inclusion will mean even more upside for WOR.

SEC (DOW TSE WOR)

OldRider
29-12-2005, 02:52 PM
SEC: I am comfortable with your strategy,I'm still holding WOR, have increased several times
over the last year or two. Has to take a second place in performance to SBM though in my performance stakes of companies owned in 2005.

Is it getting too expensive now? - I'm not sure it just keeps going higher

SEC
29-12-2005, 09:23 PM
Oldrider, WOR is second place in my 05 performance stakes too. Only ZFX has performed better but WOR has lower volatility.

Forward PE estimate of 24 looks expensive but in this commodities boom WOR has consistently beaten eps estimates and gets rerated upwards time and time again. With most commodity prices remaining at or near record highs there's going to be plenty more investment in new projects across the globe and plenty of call for WOR's services for years to come. Seems the only limitation is its ability to add staff to cope with the extra load - WOR's situations vacant list runs into the hundreds.

SEC

SEC
11-01-2006, 09:16 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

WOR might get a bit more mention with a possible inclusion into the ASX100 next year. It is currently 86th on the ASX market capitalisation ladder. Whiff of an inclusion will mean even more upside for WOR.

SEC (DOW TSE WOR)


Didn't take long in the new year for the brokers to start talking up WOR's inclusion in the ASX100 with the share price reacting accordingly. ABN Amro thinks it could be included as early as March. Excerpt below from AIR.

While it anticipates no changes to either the S&P/ASX20 or ASX50 indices the broker suggests possible inclusions in the ASX100 index this time are Worley Group (WOR) (86th largest based on market cap) and ABC Learning Centres (ABS)(97th), with SFE Corporation (SFE)(111th) and Bab****& Brown Infrastructure (BBI)(122nd) other possibilities.

In the broker’s view the stocks most at risk of being dropped from the ASX100 index are Sigma Pharmaceuticals (SIP)(76th), Futuris (FCL)(140th), Pacific Brands (PBG)(135th) and ING Office Fund (IOF)(130th).

SEC
28-02-2006, 09:47 PM
***WHAT A STUNNER!!!***

Their 06 profit forecast was about 25% higher than consensus estimates. I just didn't realise the market would play catchup so quick! It lifted the whole engineering sector along with it, DOW up 4% to a record high as well.

I reckon WOR's inclusion in the ASX100 is a foregone conclusion now. So there should be more good news for WOR holders in the next few weeks - perhaps $18?

SEC (DOW:) TSE[|)] WOR[8D][8D][8D])

SEC
02-03-2006, 12:06 AM
As expected, all the brokers are in raptures over WOR's result. Seems they never picked WOR to outperform theirly highly optimistic forecasts. Average target price increased from $13 to $18.

SEC

stephen
02-03-2006, 01:11 PM
Oh SEC, I am gnawing my arm off in frustration and regret. I passed what would have been a 5-bagger had I held on. Well done, sir.

SEC
02-03-2006, 09:38 PM
0900 [Dow Jones] S&P due to announce changes to Aussie indices Friday, which would affect shareholdings of index-tracking funds. Changes will take effect at close of trading March 17. Macquarie Equities expects Goodman Fielder (GFF.AU) to replace Ten Network (TEN.AU) in S&P/ASX 100, says WorleyParsons (WOR.AU) could replace Pacific Brands (PBG.AU).

On current market capitalisation WOR is now ranked about 70th and ahead of Goodman Fielder. The market action today suggests WOR will be included in the ASX100 this time.

Stephen, believe me I know what it's like to sell too soon, but you live and learn and move on. If that means buying back in at a higher price, so be it.

SEC

SEC
03-03-2006, 09:16 PM
What planet are those S&P bozos on? WOR has had a larger free float capitalisation than PBG for months. It has a higher market cap than GFF. Yet GFF was included in the ASX100 today and PBG wasn't dropped off! Oh well, it looks to be a certain inclusion next time. The fund managers seem to think so too given the price barely moved today.

I had to laugh at the ASX telling WOR off for not giving sufficient profit guidance prior to the HY announcement. WOR replied along the lines of "we're leveraged to the resources boom and indicated we're making a killing but didn't realise how much so until the other day".

SEC

Lizard
04-03-2006, 07:52 AM
Yes, I laughed too SEC. Though I'm sure I'd have felt totally differently if they'd posted a result hugely below expectations...

SEC
05-03-2006, 06:58 PM
Yes indeed Liz. However one tries to invest in companies/sectors where the probability of such an event is low.

In this weekend's AFR there was criticism about the way S&P arrive at their index compositions, too much emphasis on liquidity and keeping dud stocks in the indices way too long (Globe and Village Life were mentioned). So directors who have large stakes in their companies may have to sell down to improve liquidity and get into an index, while companies that directors wouldn't even think of owning any meaningful amount of their company get rewarded with an index placing.

CEO John Grill's stake in WOR is now worth over $550M. Not bad for an engineer!

SEC

SEC
09-03-2006, 09:33 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

I reckon WOR's inclusion in the ASX100 is a foregone conclusion now. So there should be more good news for WOR holders in the next few weeks - perhaps $18?

SEC (DOW:) TSE[|)] WOR[8D][8D][8D])


Incredible - WOR reached $18 within 2 weeks of its announcement despite not getting into the ASX100. Still plenty of cash sloshing around looking for a good story company to invest in.

Now a 500+% return on WOR in 20 months. Problem is that it's making my portfolio rather lop-sided. I might have to consider 'a bit of rebalancing' if WOR approaches $20.

SEC

OldRider
15-03-2006, 12:19 PM
Still heading upwards, chance of passing $20.00 shortly. At this point will become my largest ASX holding, so in same position as SEC.

PE 41.33
NTA $0.27
DY 1.6%

WOR had a cash issue round November 04 , I haven't exact price, round $4.00 if I recall, I applied for 50% more than allocated and was successful, how the interest has increased.

Return since purchase 460.9%
Annual return 234.33%
after several additional purchases since initial entry on 30 Dec 2003. Would enjoy more like this.

SEC
15-03-2006, 08:22 PM
Oldrider, the rise and rise of WOR has been insane, now the market has gifted WOR a big forward PE premium of 32, up from 24 two months ago. Fuelling this premium is some incredibly positive press in the likes of AFR - three separate mentions from different brokers/fund managers about WOR's result being amongst the best this HY. Fund manager EID reckons WOR could go higher still if it makes an eps positive acquisition.

Getting close to 'rebalancing time' around the $20 mark though.

SEC

Packersoldkidney
15-03-2006, 09:42 PM
Congratulatons.....thumbs up for the buy and hold on this one.

limegreen
19-03-2006, 11:28 PM
I originally posted this on the Rinker thread, having made the chart with nil background. I'm still of the opinion that there is no point in selling a stock like this until it shows serious signs of not going up anymore:

"Wow, WOR has had a *fantastic* run. I think a trailing stop would be about the only strategy you could run against that! Eyeballing a chart, it looks like around 20%, which would see you with a stop at $16. Having gapped up to $16 in a day's trade, would also see that as not a bad place for a fairly loose stop.
I have no idea what is driving it up, but assuming that force is still present, I'd hold on and go for the ride!"

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/wor17mar06.gif

SEC
22-03-2006, 08:19 PM
JP Morgan has emerged as a substantial holder for both WOR and TSE over the past couple of days. From memory I think JP Morgan is conservative on the resource sector so for them to be buying companies that *service* the resource sector is an interesting development, particularly with prices at or near record highs. Obviously reckon there's more to come. Transfield directors are agreeing, three of them bought on-market in the past month.

SEC (DOW TSE WOR)

SEC
22-05-2006, 10:54 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

I might have to consider 'a bit of rebalancing' if WOR approaches $20.

SEC


Well I ended up not selling any WOR at $20. It has done remarkably well in the past few weeks given the carnage occurring to anything remotely connected with the 'R' word (and my base metals portfolio[xx(]). An upgraded profit forecast and big contract wins might have something to do with it[8D].

SEC

SEC
01-06-2006, 12:47 AM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

What planet are those S&P bozos on? WOR has had a larger free float capitalisation than PBG for months. It has a higher market cap than GFF. Yet GFF was included in the ASX100 today and PBG wasn't dropped off! Oh well, it looks to be a certain inclusion next time. The fund managers seem to think so too given the price barely moved today.


WOR (AND ZFX) both up over 3% on record volumes today when the ASX200 went down over 100 points. Huge trades on and after close. And guess what? It's that time for S&P to announce their 3-monthly index changes. Let me see.... leaked info about imminent inclusions in the ASX100 and ASX50 respectively?

SEC

mark100
01-06-2006, 01:07 AM
This might have something to do with it SEC.

Revised MSCI Indexes kick in from tonight

AUSTRALASIA
No deletions from the MSCI Australia Index.
Additions
ABS: ABC Learning Centres
GFF: Goodman Fielder
PDN: Paladin Resources
WOR: WorleyParsons
ZFX: Zinifex.

MSCI Small Cap Index Australasia
Deletions
Cochlear
Macquarie Countrywide
Oxiana
Zinifex
Additions
AUW: Australian Wealth Management
BTA: Biota Holdings
CST: Cellestis Ltd
CIY: City Pacific
CSM: Consolidated Minerals
DUE: Diversified Utility & Energy
GCL: Gloucester Coal
HSP: Healthscope Ltd
KCN: Kingsgate Consolidated
MCC: Macarthur Coal
MDT: Macquarie DDR Trust
MFS: MFS
PEM Perilya
SLX: Silex Systems
SBM: St Barbara
TSO: Tishman Speyer Office Fund
VSL: Vision Systems

SEC
01-06-2006, 08:01 PM
Thanks Mark, I forgot about the MSCI influence, looks like it had everything to do with it (huge volumes in PDN GFF and ABS yesterday as well). I still reckon WOR has to be included in the ASX100 next time round, it's almost in the Top 50 by market capitalisation.

SEC

SEC
03-06-2006, 11:13 AM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

What planet are those S&P bozos on? WOR has had a larger free float capitalisation than PBG for months. It has a higher market cap than GFF. Yet GFF was included in the ASX100 today and PBG wasn't dropped off! Oh well, it looks to be a certain inclusion next time. The fund managers seem to think so too given the price barely moved today.


They couldn't deny WOR a second time, finally it's included in the ASX100, replacing that perennial underperformer PacBrands. Shame about the shareprice yesterday but given the huge runup last month when the rest of the market tanked I can't complain. Looked a case of buy the rumour, sell the fact. The dip will almost certainly be temporary.

SEC

SEC
30-08-2006, 11:19 PM
WOR beats the forecasts it gave just 3 months ago and in accordance with the predominant behaviour of the market at the moment it gets hammered.

The irony is that if WOR didn't give updated guidance 3 months ago (it was forced to when it got told off in Feb) the market reaction would have been much more positive this time around. In Feb it forecast 'modest improvement in the first half's very good result' for the remainder of the year. Would the market consider a 25% improvement as just 'modest'?

SEC

stephen
29-09-2006, 08:29 AM
It seems WOR are not distinguishing themselves in Iraq.

http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2006/09/the_year_of_the.html

SEC
29-09-2006, 09:09 AM
quote:Originally posted by stephen

It seems WOR are not distinguishing themselves in Iraq.

http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2006/09/the_year_of_the.html


No, that's Parsons not distinguishing themselves in Iraq. Nothing to do with WOR.

www.parsons.com

mark100
29-09-2006, 09:39 AM
Yes you're correct SEC. Parsons, known in Australia as Parsons Brinckerhoff, is completely unrelated to Worley Parsons.

cheers

stephen
29-09-2006, 02:44 PM
How very embarassing. I knew WOR was doing stuff in Iraq, put 2 and 2 together and got 5.

SEC
08-02-2007, 11:07 PM
Anyone else holding WOR on this forum? They're still in form, two profit upgrades in as many weeks and the big fat eps positive acquisition of Canadian project services company Colt today.

Price/EBITDA of Colt was 9.7 which compares well to WOR (17.5 for CY06). Acquisition would have been 16% eps accretive before amortisation and financing costs (perhaps 10% eps accretive when included).

So given profit upgrade and eps positive acquisition we may see WOR up 10% to around $25 when trading resumes?

Rights issue 1:9 @ $21 is partly funding the acquisition. I'm in two minds whether to take up my allotment or sell my rights, the bulk of my WOR holding was purchased for under $3 and I paid $4.10 taking up my rights to fund the Parsons acquisition, forking out $21 seems a bit steep!

SEC

OldRider
09-02-2007, 08:24 AM
SEC:

I'm still holding, with a similar record to yourself. At present I think I will take my allocation, wonder if they will allow applications over the 1:9 as happened on the previous issue, might be lucky enough to repeat the good fortune.

SEC
11-02-2007, 10:20 PM
Oldrider, I reckon any surplus applications will be hotly sought after. The articles in Friday's AFR were extremely bullish on the Colt acquisition. UBS has a price target of $30.20 (surprise surprise they're the house broker) but indications are the insto allotment will be from $25 - $27. It's all good!

SEC

OldRider
14-02-2007, 11:43 AM
I'm not sure about the whole process, but hoping that the $28.00 price paid for shares not taken up in the institutional offer gives an indication of the future price.

SEC
14-02-2007, 09:27 PM
WOR +20% today..... Oldrider, if WOR doesn't reach $28 my decision to sell my rights @ $7 each is made all the easier.

Today has been my best ever day in both % and $ terms in just over 5 years participation in the sharemarket. And I don't think that fact has sunk in quite yet.....

SEC
10-05-2007, 09:58 PM
WOR now $30!!!!!!!!

My first ten+ bagger and I've held WOR for less then three years (and been in the ASX for a bit over four years). It wasn't a small cap or spec play three years ago either so one could grab a decent amount even back then.

Yeah yeah I'm blowing my own trumpet, but who gives a fück.

SEC

wns
10-05-2007, 10:49 PM
Congrats SEC!! Well done. :D

Did you sell any of your initial stake along the way to be free carried or still got 'em all?

SEC
10-05-2007, 11:26 PM
I've still got them all, took up all my rights in the two placements, and topped up on market in 2005.

SEC
27-09-2007, 10:53 PM
With the share price now $42 WOR is now a $10 billion company and in the Top 30 by market capitalisation. Now bigger than blue chips like Orica, Toll and Origin Energy and closing in on Qantas, PBL and Fosters. Entry into the ASX50 beckons in December. Whoever would have thought when WOR floated in 2002 with a market cap of $300M that WOR would become one of the biggest listed companies in Australia....

If you want leveraged upside to the oil and gas industry without the production risks associated with your typical oiler, you can't go past WOR.

SEC

mark100
18-10-2008, 12:30 AM
WOR now under $17.50. They look great on a longer term basis but I wonder how resilient their market will be in the short term? I can see a lot of potential O&G projects being pulled over the next 12 months. However the growth premium has certainly come out of WOR's share price. I'm watching closely..

soulman
18-10-2008, 08:09 PM
I was looking at WOR on Friday as it was one of the biggest loser. I may need extra cash for margin call in the future, hence any future purchases are made with caution. Did not buy because of the plunge the last few days (WOR that is). The yield looks OK but the sector are being smashed. Other notable player in the industry are being marked down for recession fear and include:

ANG, LEI, MND, TSE, MAH, ASL, BKN and AAX.

BKN has become a holder of ANG and LEI increase their holdings in MAH. Maybe consolidation in that space. ASL rejection of MAH scrip bid have ASL getting smashed and me as well. The founder of ASL bought many shares in the $2.30's to fend off the T/O and Mr Sayer now owns 19.99% of ASL. I supposed he can't buy any more with the T/O rule. He just lost half the value.

Even Chinalco and Alcoa both lose half their money on their RIO stake.

soulman
18-10-2008, 09:54 PM
Technically no sign of slowing down yet, I think it will fall further.

AA

I agree. Will stay out. WOR has rised fast and now should slid just as fast.

winner69
19-10-2008, 09:48 AM
Hope you guys got out somewhere near the top

Amazing to think that something that some would say is overvalued at todays $17 odd was over $54 less than a year ago

One of the pitfalls of buying into dreams I suppose but that is the way the world has been for many years. Highlights the need to watch those charts eh and not get carried away with analysts reports and fundamentals and all that sort of stuff. Pick something and make as much money you can out of it seems to be the game.

Over the last year or so have used WOR as the benchmark for my investment in ORI as the choice of service providers to the global mining boom

ORI has gone the way of WOR over the last year as well, though not so dramatic, and is about 50% of its highs ..... it wasn't hard selling for $30 odd something I had started buying at $4 a few years ago but following the charts and not getting carried away with what future prospects might be. When the market talks it is time to act.

I still believe that the urbanisation of China and other countries wll contine (like on another thread there will be another 50,000 skyscrapers in China one day) and that there will an ongoing demand for stuff that needs to be got of the ground .... and te likes of WOR and ORI will still have their day .... but I wouldn't be rushing in tomorrow to buy.

pedro.nz
27-11-2008, 07:21 PM
Would appreciate another chart from someone please - must be worth watching this one now

mark100
03-12-2008, 12:44 AM
I would also appreciate someone posting a chart for WOR. I see the current prices as a great opportunity but am reluctant to buy into a downtrend. I don't think WOR will run too hard without a recovery in the oil price which could be some way off just yet.

pedro.nz
03-12-2008, 07:39 PM
Thanks AA - Will just have to be patient.

Extract from annual report...

The record 2008 result includes a net profit after tax for the
12 months to 30 June 2008 of $343.9 million, an increase of 53.0%
on the $224.8 million net profit reported for the same period to
30 June 2007.
The result was earned on aggregated revenue of $4,900.7 million,
an increase of 38.6% on the $3,534.6 million reported in the
previous corresponding period.
EBITDA for the period was $587.0 million, an increase of 66.1%
on the prior corresponding period and an increase of 23.1% on
the first half of this financial year. The EBITDA margin for the
Group increased to 12.0% from the 10.0% reported in the previous
corresponding period. The Company’s net profit after tax margin on
aggregated revenue increased to 7.0% from the 6.4% reported in
2007. The effective corporate tax rate of 28.9% remained in line
with the rate recorded in the first half of this financial year.
Basic earnings per share (EPS) were 142.5 cents, an increase
of 40.0% above the 101.8 cents per share for the previous
corresponding period.

shasta
19-01-2009, 10:17 AM
Is WOR about to turn?

AA - Could you please post a chart (candles would be good)

Thanks

winner69
19-01-2009, 10:45 AM
Is WOR about to turn?

AA - Could you please post a chart (candles would be good)

Thanks


Is that wishful thinking or something else shasta

WOR and ORI seem to track each other ..... are both mining services related .... and seem to be a good reflection of the sentiment around the ASX .... which was beginning to look more positive

Until last week i was getting a bit enthusiastic about getting more involved in these two but the the 5% decline in the ASX200 put paid to that

Until a clear direction is evident I am staying out

shasta
19-01-2009, 03:20 PM
Is that wishful thinking or something else shasta

WOR and ORI seem to track each other ..... are both mining services related .... and seem to be a good reflection of the sentiment around the ASX .... which was beginning to look more positive

Until last week i was getting a bit enthusiastic about getting more involved in these two but the the 5% decline in the ASX200 put paid to that

Until a clear direction is evident I am staying out

See the edited chart from AA

WOR is in a short term uptrend, why else would i be interersted? :rolleyes:

winner69
19-01-2009, 06:33 PM
See the edited chart from AA

WOR is in a short term uptrend, why else would i be interersted? :rolleyes:

Sorry to have misinterpreted you Mr Shasta

Though WOR is in a short term uptrend do ypu think it will be sustained>

What i was trying to say was the frustrating thing is that the likes of WOR and ORI follow BHP (and the ASX) closely and just as things start to look OK it all turns to custard again and another trade needs to be aborted .... esp wehn my time frame is generally longer than a week or two.

Today was a good day for both .... maybe all the bad times are over

shasta
19-01-2009, 07:22 PM
Sorry to have misinterpreted you Mr Shasta

Though WOR is in a short term uptrend do ypu think it will be sustained>

What i was trying to say was the frustrating thing is that the likes of WOR and ORI follow BHP (and the ASX) closely and just as things start to look OK it all turns to custard again and another trade needs to be aborted .... esp wehn my time frame is generally longer than a week or two.

Today was a good day for both .... maybe all the bad times are over

Time will tell if it's sustainable or not, if i knew what the markets were going to do i'd be extremely rich!

Alot of "decent companies" appear to be coming off there lows & are approaching a more bullish chart, WOR is just one of a few i'm tracking.

But as you know, one bad night on the DOW is all it takes to ruin it all!

winner69
20-01-2009, 01:00 PM
Time will tell if it's sustainable or not, if i knew what the markets were going to do i'd be extremely rich!

Alot of "decent companies" appear to be coming off there lows & are approaching a more bullish chart, WOR is just one of a few i'm tracking.

But as you know, one bad night on the DOW is all it takes to ruin it all!

Wasn't even a bad day on the DOW but a bad day on the ASX as Aussies become to realise they are not the lucky country after all stuffs it up for the likes of WOR

moimoi
20-01-2009, 02:56 PM
i think it was tipped by a fundie on trading matters cnbc last night.

winner69
24-01-2009, 07:19 AM
Time will tell if it's sustainable or not, if i knew what the markets were going to do i'd be extremely rich!

Alot of "decent companies" appear to be coming off there lows & are approaching a more bullish chart, WOR is just one of a few i'm tracking.

But as you know, one bad night on the DOW is all it takes to ruin it all!

And so it proved eh

When i asked you about 'wishful thinking' earlier really asking if the ASX had turned upward.

I was not entirely and the recent short term uptrend for the ASX@)) had not been convincingly confirmed .... and the last 2 weeks the ASX is down 10%.

On a weekly chart of ASX200 the ASX is still in a down trend .... reaching new lows and not reaching higher highs on the 'rallies' ... the recent rise (in hindsight') a typical that occurs in bear markets ... suck people in before punishing them again.

As I said the likes of ORI and WOR follow the likes of BHP ,,,, all reflected in waht happens to the ASX200 ... and until we do get a confirmed uptrend I'm staying out of these sort of stocks ... leave them to the likes of AMR and their short term trades

AMR
24-01-2009, 07:53 AM
No I don't trade countertrend anymore. The math just doesn't add up.

Anyhow it appears that the bear flag has broken down.

Phaedrus
24-01-2009, 09:14 AM
Gentlemen, none of you are paying sufficient attention to volume. Buy signals without volume confirmation are worth little. Look at how the OBV plot depicts WOR volume - a crystal-clear portrait of a stock totally without promise going absolutely nowhere. There is not a hint of any meaningful rise at any point in the last year or more. The progression so far is inexorably sideways and down.

The green arrow marks a trendline-break buy signal. Note the total absence of any OBV confirmation at that time. Those foolish or impetuous enough to act on this signal would (I hope) have sold at the next trendline break (red arrow) for a profitless trade.

AA, when you say "WOR is currently sitting on its supporting trendline, It appears to be providing strong support" I think you are misinterpreting trendlines. They do not supply support any more than a moving average "provides support". They merely monitor the linearity of a trend. Sure, they will quickly tell you when the rate of change alters, but this is most certainly NOT the same as providing support. A trendline is a completely artificial mathematical construct that does not exist in the real world. This is completely different to the support that can be found at a specific price - now that is real. Finite. Fixed.

A "Bear flag" as noted by AMR is statistically far more likely to break down rather than up. As he says, "I don't trade countertrend anymore. The math just doesn't add up".

View the OBV plot as you would a price plot. Would you buy this stock?

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/WOR124.gif

winner69
24-01-2009, 10:22 AM
Phaedrus ... rather sick chart eh

I'm sure if you did a chart of the ASX200 as a proxy of the Australia Market the long term investor (and probably the shorter term investor) would be in one of your infamous no buy zones ... and thats why I'm not buying WOR at the moment

pedro.nz
14-03-2009, 03:37 PM
Hi Phaedrus,

An update on WOR would be greatly appreciated - thank you

Phaedrus
14-03-2009, 04:57 PM
Here you are Pedro. This chart should be viewed in conjunction with post #89 (on the previous page). It should be self explanatory, but sing out if there is anything here that you don't understand.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/WOR314.gif

pedro.nz
14-03-2009, 07:00 PM
Thanks Phaedrus,

Have studied the two charts and seeing you have used the OBV as one of the indicators I thought I would post a brief explanation here as a reminder to myself and to anyone else that is interested. (Apologies if you have posted similar somewhere else)

A method used in TA to detect momentum, the calculation of which relates volume to price change. OBV attempts to detect when a financial instrument (stock, bond, etc.) is being accumulated by a large number of buyers or sold by many sellers. Traders will use an upward sloping OBV to confirm an uptrend, while a downward sloping OBV is used to confirm a downtrend. Finding a downward sloping OBV while the price of an asset is trending upward can be used to suggest that the "smart" traders are starting to exit their positions and that a shift in trend may be coming.

OBV is a freely ranging oscillator that is used as a confirming-diverging tool. The creator of this indicator, Mr Joseph Granville, strongly believes that volume is the determinant for security moves and considers this measure to be more important to monitor than price.
He states...
"Volume is a cause and price is an effect"

AMR
14-03-2009, 08:54 PM
Thanks Phaedrus,

Have studied the two charts and seeing you have used the OBV as one of the indicators I thought I would post a brief explanation here as a reminder to myself and to anyone else that is interested. (Apologies if you have posted similar somewhere else)

A method used in TA to detect momentum, the calculation of which relates volume to price change. OBV attempts to detect when a financial instrument (stock, bond, etc.) is being accumulated by a large number of buyers or sold by many sellers. Traders will use an upward sloping OBV to confirm an uptrend, while a downward sloping OBV is used to confirm a downtrend. Finding a downward sloping OBV while the price of an asset is trending upward can be used to suggest that the "smart" traders are starting to exit their positions and that a shift in trend may be coming.

OBV is a freely ranging oscillator that is used as a confirming-diverging tool. The creator of this indicator, Mr Joseph Granville, strongly believes that volume is the determinant for security moves and considers this measure to be more important to monitor than price.
He states...
"Volume is a cause and price is an effect"

More technically, OBV is a cumulative total of traded volumes.

Up days are added to OBV, down days are subtracted.

ops.normal
16-03-2009, 12:26 PM
Hi Phaedrus

I've been learning a lot from the charts you and others post here, so thanks kindly :)

A quick question for you: The OBV plot in the chart you posted above - I've seen trend lines that you've placed on OBV charts before where you've used the breaking of an OBV trend line as a buy or a sell signal. The one above, is that just a trend line which is almost like the top of a trading range? Or have I missed something simple along the way?

Cheers
Ops

Phaedrus
16-03-2009, 12:47 PM
Ops, the WOR OBV was flat (not trending up or down) and we needed an easy objective means of identifying when it began to rise. The easiest way to do this was to run a horizontal line through previous peaks then monitor that, watching for a break above it. In other words, we were looking for an OBV high that exceeded previous highs.

Strictly speaking, this should not be called a trendline because there is no trend. Neither should it be likened to a trading range because that refers to price action. Pedantic eh?

winner69
16-03-2009, 01:06 PM
Good stuff .... hope Shasta on board as he was keen a few weeks ago

ORI and WOR behave much the same way .... and i went the ORI way the other day at 12 bucks odd even though Phaedrus probably would have waited until recent resistance at $14 was broken .... and it has just taken off when it did go through 1400

Fundamentally in this environment anything could happen to both ORI and WOR so tight stops and no emotional holding

shasta
16-03-2009, 08:28 PM
Good stuff .... hope Shasta on board as he was keen a few weeks ago

ORI and WOR behave much the same way .... and i went the ORI way the other day at 12 bucks odd even though Phaedrus probably would have waited until recent resistance at $14 was broken .... and it has just taken off when it did go through 1400

Fundamentally in this environment anything could happen to both ORI and WOR so tight stops and no emotional holding

Still not buying anything, just yet...

Maybe soon ;)

George
17-03-2009, 05:28 AM
Bit off topic but why were there many spikes up or down on most
of the big stocks yesterday. Is this positive or negative for
stocks, who is buying and who is selling and why?
WOR only had spikes in the last hour while others started about
noon, if sp was up spikes were down, sp down spikes were up
such as QBE, WOR, BHP etc.

winner69
17-03-2009, 06:32 PM
Another good day for both WOR and ORI ..... probably riding the positive market sentiment around this week .... maybe the bottom was a week ago so sticking to good solid companies is a good move as money flows back into the market ..... but watch those stop losses as anything can happen

soulman
17-03-2009, 06:49 PM
The bottom might have been set as AA graph showed. The pre 2003 Iraq War low was in the 2600-2700 zone and I don't think that will be breached and if you put 15% above that, around 3100 points should be the low for the market to continue the rising trend since the year 1900. Well done to those that bought in the low's.

winner69
04-05-2009, 07:07 PM
Another good day for both WOR and ORI ..... probably riding the positive market sentiment around this week .... maybe the bottom was a week ago so sticking to good solid companies is a good move as money flows back into the market ..... but watch those stop losses as anything can happen

ORI have a great half year announcement (price had been strengthening prior so well anticipated) and the ORI share price takes off and now $19

WOR have had a few pistive annpuncements and share price now close to $20

As said before these 2 stocks follow each other closely .... ORI was my choice and I'm not compaining with >50% on last purchase,

In spite of the headline news both ORI and WOR seem to have been very busy keeping customers going .. the headlines are more about new minig stuff being canned or postponed ... but current work seems to be pretty robust.

Now market sentiment is pretty positive no reason why both shouldn't be closer to $25 than $20 in a month or so .... but keep an eye on those charts .... remember Phaedrus saying the market giveth and the market taketh away just as quick ... or something like that

pedro.nz
05-05-2009, 05:18 PM
ENGINEERING services group WorleyParsons is understood to have been approached by Egypt to be the lead consultant for the building of the country's first nuclear power plant.

Reports out of Egypt said negotiat*ions with tender winner, the US-based Bechtel Power, had fallen over and WorleyParsons engaged.
WP declined to comment, with a spokesman saying the company never made any comment on media speculation.

Shares in WP soared more than 7 per cent or $1.37 to close at $19.89 after news of Egypt's approach to WP broke overseas.

If negotiations with WP are successful, the company would choose the technology and the site for the nuclear reactor.
WP would also be responsible for the quality control of the project, train staff to operate the power plant and provide other technical services, the Middle East News Agency in Egypt said on Sunday.

WP was the under-bidder in a tender process to be a consultant on Egypt's plans to build its first nuclear power plant.

The tender was conducted by Egypt's Ministry of Electricity and Energy.

A ministry official told MENA an approach had been made to WP for a 10-year consultancy worth $US180 million ($242 million). MENA did not explain why negotiations between the ministry and the tender winner, Bechtel Power failed. Egypt plans to build several civilian nuclear power stations to meet its escalating energy needs.

WP has extensive experience in nuclear power plants in Bulgaria and North America. In Bulgaria, WP is the owner's engineer for the nuclear power plant.

The 10-year project started in 2005 and, when completed in 2015, the Belene nuclear power plant will help Bulgaria comply with the Kyoto Protocol and strict European Commission release regulations.

Australia has one nuclear reactor, a small scientific facility at Lucas Heights, 31km southwest of Sydney, which is used for medical applications and experiments but generates no power.

WP had a small consultancy role in Lucas Heights' new reactor completed in 2007, a spokeswoman for the Australian Nuclear Science Technology Organisation confirmed.

winner69
07-05-2009, 12:15 PM
Both ORI and WOR feeding off each other .... really positive sentiment about both

WOR staying ahead as it appraoches $21 and ORI broken through the $20 .... can't complain as ORI will catch up

Hope you did get into WOR Shasta

Jay
07-05-2009, 06:21 PM
Wished I stayed in ! But I stuck to my plan and sold on a stop loss, (the recent retreat) and it went further south a little as well.
Nevermind

winner69
14-06-2009, 11:06 AM
Both ORI and WOR feeding off each other .... really positive sentiment about both

WOR staying ahead as it appraoches $21 and ORI broken through the $20 .... can't complain as ORI will catch up

Hope you did get into WOR Shasta

And WOR still stays ahead of ORI with WOR now over $25 and ORI over $21

Shasta liked WOR a while ago and I liked and went for ORI in the mining services part of the market ...... never mind as both getting close to doubleing your money in a few months .. and both outperforming the general market .... hope Shasta got on the bus as they say

Both still hsve plenty left in them ..... charts still looking good

Who needs to get invloved in speculatie stocks when good old 'blue chips' can perform like this

OldRider
21-06-2009, 06:35 PM
I looked back over the history of our WOR holding to an initial purchase in 2003, through a rights issue in 2004 which was not fully sunscribed for, letting us purchase
rather more tham our allowance, revenues,profits and ocf's that have increased almost every year, equity at present that is near fourteen times that of 2003, and a profit about 50 times that of the same year. Not a bad record

It was with some reluctance that the holding was sold, but that surely proved the right decision, we have been rebuying on the way up to have regained the former position,
presently the net cost per share is at -$3.00.

Can things be repeated ?, I believe so, hence the repurchasing and make these commemts to draw others attention to what has been a quite spectacular growth history.

winner69
27-06-2009, 08:50 AM
I looked back over the history of our WOR holding to an initial purchase in 2003, through a rights issue in 2004 which was not fully sunscribed for, letting us purchase
rather more tham our allowance, revenues,profits and ocf's that have increased almost every year, equity at present that is near fourteen times that of 2003, and a profit about 50 times that of the same year. Not a bad record

It was with some reluctance that the holding was sold, but that surely proved the right decision, we have been rebuying on the way up to have regained the former position,
presently the net cost per share is at -$3.00.

Can things be repeated ?, I believe so, hence the repurchasing and make these commemts to draw others attention to what has been a quite spectacular growth history.

Good stuff Old Rider

Both WOR and ORI hanging there although WOR slighty ahead at the moment but heck if nearly 100% up whose caring if ORI slightly behind

Both just staying above the 30MA line which sort of suggests some more oomph in both yet but probably reached the stage where future price rises are more dependent on how the world ecomonies go instead of a correction of a terribly oversold siyuation in both

winner69
01-08-2009, 07:11 AM
Rate that the shareprice of both WOR and ORI keeps increasing slowing down a bit but heck both are still going up

Got to the double your money in less than 6 monhs with ORI the other day .... hope Shasta did the same with WOR as he was pretty keen on that at the same time

No reason why both should be good earners into the future know mining activity and infrastructure spend starting to pick up again

What a ride it has been --- opportunities abounded with highly oversold bluechips when the worls was going to collapse

But keeping watching those charts ... tricha might be right ... the world might just sink into a morass again

STRAT
01-08-2009, 08:36 AM
Rate that the shareprice of both WOR and ORI keeps increasing slowing down a bit but heck both are still going up

Got to the double your money in less than 6 monhs with ORI the other day .... hope Shasta did the same with WOR as he was pretty keen on that at the same time

No reason why both should be good earners into the future know mining activity and infrastructure spend starting to pick up again

What a ride it has been --- opportunities abounded with highly oversold bluechips when the worls was going to collapse

But keeping watching those charts ... tricha might be right ... the world might just sink into a morass againGeez Winner,
That was a hard read:D
Have you taken up drinking before breakfast? :eek::p

winner69
28-08-2009, 01:36 AM
Both WOR and ORI still on the rise and doing shareholders proud

ORI is my choice between the 2 but WOR has dome slightly better but doubling ones money this year is nothing to complain about

Shasta - did you ever get on board WOR

COLIN
28-08-2009, 10:14 AM
I have held ORI for a while and they have served me well. Bought some WOR yesterday - should have caught them earlier, but I believe they still have further to run.

Both come under the heading of "Shovel Suppliers" I suppose.

winner69
28-08-2009, 10:19 AM
I have held ORI for a while and they have served me well. Bought some WOR yesterday - should have caught them earlier, but I believe they still have further to run.

Both come under the heading of "Shovel Suppliers" I suppose.

ORI bypasses the needs for shovels .... just blows things up into huge piles of stuff ... but then spose they need shovels then

winner69
16-09-2009, 12:35 PM
WOR at about $30 and ORI at about $25 ..... both continue their march to higher hgihs

No reason why both shouldn't continue to rise .... still believe (been proved wrong so far but who cares with a 100% gain this year) that ORI is the better bet as demand for the stuff in the ground picks up

shasta
16-09-2009, 02:00 PM
WOR at about $30 and ORI at about $25 ..... both continue their march to higher hgihs

No reason why both shouldn't continue to rise .... still believe (been proved wrong so far but who cares with a 100% gain this year) that ORI is the better bet as demand for the stuff in the ground picks up

Never did buy into WOR.

Nevermind i have targets that run on almost a daily basis, always another one to ride around the corner ;)

winner69
30-12-2009, 04:08 PM
Both WOR and ORI still trending up in line with the market ... even though ORI has done a little better over the last month than WOR

No real reason why the steady rises shouldn't continue ... at least for ORI the miners are still getting coal and other stuff out the ground in all parts of the world and the demand for mining services will continue to grow.

Only steady rises from here I suspect ... after all the bear market rally is probably coming to an end and I fear that the market might only creep up or go sideways in 2010 .... hence if not in too many spec stocks the need to stay in solid well run companies with some growth prospects .... as long as they are going up

COLIN
30-12-2009, 04:44 PM
Both WOR and ORI still trending up in line with the market ... even though ORI has done a little better over the last month than WOR

No real reason why the steady rises shouldn't continue ... at least for ORI the miners are still getting coal and other stuff out the ground in all parts of the world and the demand for mining services will continue to grow.

Only steady rises from here I suspect ... after all the bear market rally is probably coming to an end and I fear that the market might only creep up or go sideways in 2010 .... hence if not in too many spec stocks the need to stay in solid well run companies with some growth prospects .... as long as they are going up

I still hold both, W69, although I must admit I feel more positive about ORI than I do about WOR. It certainly seems to make sense to hold a few of the larger, basic, "draught horses" in one's portfolio, even though they mightn't give the same thrills as chasing the young fillies.

winner69
04-01-2010, 12:10 PM
WOR acquires another company which will help shareprice

Might go over $30 in the next day or two Colin ... good stuff eh ... and to think the shareprice was $11 something a year ago

winner69
13-01-2010, 11:43 AM
WOR acquires another company which will help shareprice

Might go over $30 in the next day or two Colin ... good stuff eh ... and to think the shareprice was $11 something a year ago

That profit warning came out of the blue and the market has reacted with the price down to $26 - down 11% odd

Hope what WOR is enduring isn't a real sign that the industrial world is still stuffed and the touted recovery is still some time away ... or worse still may never happen

Revised forecast earnings of $280-$300m - even with the reduced shareprice still 0n forward PE over 20 ..... high PEs and profit downgrades don't go hand in hand do they

Hope ORI not the next one to suffer ... WOR and ORI seem to follow each other

mark100
13-01-2010, 01:01 PM
That profit warning came out of the blue and the market has reacted with the price down to $26 - down 11% odd

Hope what WOR is enduring isn't a real sign that the industrial world is still stuffed and the touted recovery is still some time away ... or worse still may never happen

Revised forecast earnings of $280-$300m - even with the reduced shareprice still 0n forward PE over 20 ..... high PEs and profit downgrades don't go hand in hand do they

Hope ORI not the next one to suffer ... WOR and ORI seem to follow each other

I wouldn't say out of the the blue w69. WOR downgraded in the second half of last year and FY2010 was always going to be tough given the lag time between a pickup in economic activity and new projects being sanctioned. I was amazed at how high it has run given the chances of downgrades. I see fair value for WOR somewhere in the high teens. Probably won't get down that far though

winner69
13-01-2010, 01:29 PM
Mark - I sort of said out of the blue because WOR had made a couple of recent announcements about acquisitions etc and made no mention of trading conditions ... good or bad

One thing that would be abit of a worry is that H1 earnings are still going to be significantly less than H1 last year so all the 'good news' is still weighted to H2 ... for WOR sake hope that all this good stuff eventuates

mark100
13-01-2010, 03:11 PM
One thing that would be abit of a worry is that H1 earnings are still going to be significantly less than H1 last year so all the 'good news' is still weighted to H2 ... for WOR sake hope that all this good stuff eventuates

Yeah I've learnt the hard way not to put too much faith in a 'big second half expected'. Contracts can easily slip which would make the FY2010 result quite ugly for WOR. Good business though and I would be interested if it fell below $20 at some stage

COLIN
13-01-2010, 10:00 PM
[QUOTE=COLIN;287375]I still hold both, W69, although I must admit I feel more positive about ORI than I do about WOR. QUOTE]

I should have followed my instincts and ditched WOR then (end Dec.) Markets take a long time to erase the memory of profit downgrades, in my experience.

winner69
21-01-2010, 02:45 PM
I thought down to $26 was a pretty big drop but orice still getting weaker and now approaching $24

More than 20% of its high just before the profit downgrade

As you say Colin profit downgrades like this leave a sour taste for a while so maybe many are really peeved with what happens

ORI price now higher than WOR .... never know might be their turn for a profit downgrade ... doubt it

COLIN
21-01-2010, 09:13 PM
I thought down to $26 was a pretty big drop but orice still getting weaker and now approaching $24

More than 20% of its high just before the profit downgrade

As you say Colin profit downgrades like this leave a sour taste for a while so maybe many are really peeved with what happens

ORI price now higher than WOR .... never know might be their turn for a profit downgrade ... doubt it

W69: Dumped my WOR today - finally decided that I had suffered enough pain!

winner69
22-01-2010, 11:42 AM
Colin ... good call if the sentiment today is anything to go by ... jeez low as $23 today doesn;t bode well .... even a bad day

Might look again in six month or a years time when things have been sorted out .... might be back to $12 again and you can have another go at doubling your money

winner69
07-07-2010, 02:43 PM
W69: Dumped my WOR today - finally decided that I had suffered enough pain!

Glad you id I bet as WOR sinks to the lows it got to after the shock earnings announcement..

Amazing how the relativity between ORI and WOR has changed the last few months .... apparently helping miners get stuff out the goround is seen as abetter bet than getting involved in the oil business.

Who would have thought that BP's problems would have wiped hundreds of millions off the WOR shareprice ... just shows you don;t really know how people connect up the dots

COLIN
07-07-2010, 04:25 PM
Glad you id I bet as WOR sinks to the lows it got to after the shock earnings announcement..

Amazing how the relativity between ORI and WOR has changed the last few months .... apparently helping miners get stuff out the goround is seen as abetter bet than getting involved in the oil business.

Who would have thought that BP's problems would have wiped hundreds of millions off the WOR shareprice ... just shows you don;t really know how people connect up the dots

Yes, and I haven't sensed any "buy" signals for WOR since I exited.
Actually I purged my portfolio of all my "W" stocks a few months ago, i.e. WOR, WES, and WPL. And I'm glad I kept away from WOW. But I keep checking on their trends as I believe they are all good "core" stocks to pile into when the global recovery eventually resumes transmission - by 2020 perhaps!

Because of the generally depressed market sentiment I bailed out of ORI a couple of months ago, too, even though I believe the proposed business split should bring overall rewards, down the track. Interesting to see the speculation about a NPX combination, since denied by NPX.

mark100
25-08-2010, 01:11 PM
I wouldn't say out of the the blue w69. WOR downgraded in the second half of last year and FY2010 was always going to be tough given the lag time between a pickup in economic activity and new projects being sanctioned. I was amazed at how high it has run given the chances of downgrades. I see fair value for WOR somewhere in the high teens. Probably won't get down that far though

Average result for WOR today. They say growth is expected in FY11. If they can post 10% EPS growth and you rate them on a generous PE of 15 you get a share price of $19.50. I would argue a forward PE of 15 is not justified in the current market. Maybe more like 13 which puts them in the high teens where I would be interested.

winner69
30-08-2010, 06:27 PM
Yes, and I haven't sensed any "buy" signals for WOR since I exited.
Actually I purged my portfolio of all my "W" stocks a few months ago, i.e. WOR, WES, and WPL. And I'm glad I kept away from WOW. But I keep checking on their trends as I believe they are all good "core" stocks to pile into when the global recovery eventually resumes transmission - by 2020 perhaps!

Because of the generally depressed market sentiment I bailed out of ORI a couple of months ago, too, even though I believe the proposed business split should bring overall rewards, down the track. Interesting to see the speculation about a NPX combination, since denied by NPX.

WOR not getting much support at the moment and hanging around the $20-$21 mark

ORI on the other hand roaring ahead and when you add in the DLX shares now about $28 .... wasn;t that long ago WOR was $28 and ORI a lot less

Amazing what market sentiment does eh

I still sticking with ORI

Vaygor1
20-11-2013, 07:12 PM
Whoa!!!

Down 26% today. Just shed $5.59 a share on revised (i.e. lower) profit guidance.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20131120/pdf/42kzmw81lbftn8.pdf (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01467528)

Disc: Do not hold.

macduffy
25-04-2015, 07:24 AM
WOR thread hereby re-activated. Just for PSE!

:)

PSE
25-04-2015, 09:21 AM
With the share price now $42 WOR is now a $10 billion company and in the Top 30 by market capitalisation. Now bigger than blue chips like Orica, Toll and Origin Energy and closing in on Qantas, PBL and Fosters. Entry into the ASX50 beckons in December. Whoever would have thought when WOR floated in 2002 with a market cap of $300M that WOR would become one of the biggest listed companies in Australia....

If you want leveraged upside to the oil and gas industry without the production risks associated with your typical oiler, you can't go past WOR.


SEC
Thank you for re-activating the thread MacD, it seems a shame no-one warned SEC that the price of WOR was becoming extremely expensive. Reading the history it has clearly been considered a fast growing stock and these stocks tend I think to get extra punishment when they dissapoint the market.
Looks like we have had 5 years of poor results so that the people who bought at $50 are maybe starting to hate the company and capitulate.
I have averaged in at a price of $8 since January, the stock is very volatile I expect it to remain so but it doesn't matter to the long term holders except inasmuch as it suits their book to buy at a low price.
Here's my story for why I thought WOR was a good buy (and maybe still is on the dips).
WOR is an engineering consultant formerly considered a fast grower which has had declining earnings confirming that it is in fact a cyclical business because of the industries it serves. First the decline was mining now it is oil and gas.
The 9 year average historical net profit is about 300 million per annum but next year analysts predict only 200 million dollars of profit which would put the company on a PE of 14 at 2.8 billion market cap. The company has not made a loss in it's ten year history and there aren't too many businesses with such a nice record.
WOR is a large business by australasian standards which provides the next safety margin.
WOR has a gearing ratio of 26% which is acceptable and means the banks won't be calling up to shut the business down, an important measure I have found.
Overall shareholders equity is only 39% of total assets which is too low in my view, I like shareholders to own at least half the company so no safety there.
At the price I paid the company was selling at around its book value now it is at a small premium. The assets are mainly intangibles not safe things like cash and land. This makes the company riskier but I actually prefer companies that don't do anything, rather than sinking funds into holes in the ground etc.
I am aware that buying WOR you are effectively buying the expertise of their experienced staff and the reputation they have generated. As a shareholder I really want to see the staff treated well and preferably have an ownership stake in the business, cost cutting can't be indescriminate.
I see quite a few safety margins but a few failures, not everything is in place so it is a little speculative to buy but 80% investing 20% speculating I think.
The reason it is selling so cheaply is because the trough in earnings may not have come yet, 75% of the business is exposed to oil and gas and the amount of drilling going on has crashed as oil companies cut expenditure. The analysts are saying the crystal ball is cloudy so better not buy (fools - the crystal ball is always cloudy).
Recent results are really the last of the boom the company will need to cut costs drastically to maintain profitability. Treat the good people well but there is always a chance to get rid of the deadwood in a company, the best engineers will still be in demand and as the utilisation of the second tier or middle management goes down the writing will be on the wall - they will jump or be pushed. Which will benefit the company long term.
This company will lag the recovery in oil and gas prices as it will be a while before oil companies start spending again, but spend again they will need to in the medium term.
I understand that the US tight oil requires continual investment to maintain production as the wells only have a 12-18 month lifetime. Oil will continue to get harder and harder to find in the long term and this bodes well for the likes of WOR.
In short this is a cyclical company selling cheap; a relatively safe company with a good record and balance sheet. Still profitable and paying a huge dividend, hope the profitablity is maintained but would like to see a dividend cut to improve the balance sheet.
The recovery is not foreseeable in the short term but in the 3 year plus period it certainly looks like there will be a recovery. At this time the company will prove if it is just a cyclical in which case it may only be a 2-3 bagger for me or a maybe 6-10 bagger if it re-establishes itself as a growth company, at which time I will have to evaluate what the constraints on its growth will be.
I will watch with interest but try to check only quarterly if there has been a change to my story on WOR.

PSE
30-04-2015, 12:54 PM
Trading halt, maybe an earnings downgrade will create another buying opportunity.
I understand the market is speculating there may be a takeover, which would be dissapointing for investors with a long term view on the company.

winner69
30-04-2015, 03:17 PM
Jeez PSE, your Aussie portfolio/watchlist is looking like mine was 10 years or so ago.

Loved the way WOR and QBE made heaps for me. Had Waste Management in NZ and only held TPI for a while.

Our approach must be the same, no matter where we are in the market.

I keep looking at all 3 mentioned as a reminder of the god times, and if they can be repeated. At this point in time none really excite me.

Last time it was good/reasonable company performance boosted by very favourable market sentiment that gave the excessive returns. I don't think those conditions apply at he moment.

Good luck anyway, you may be on to the winners. I be watching.

PSE
30-04-2015, 05:55 PM
"The company is requesting a trading halt pending an announcement concerning nonrecurringcharges impacting the financial year 2015."

Bear in mind that the mining capex cliff is still approaching, meaning that the real pain has not yet even begun!

I agree that there will probably be 10 years of bust to go with the 10 years of mining bubble we had. WOR gets 75% of its income from oil and gas which is presently troubled but not in such a long term way.I expect this is where the writedowns will be coming from.

PSE
30-04-2015, 06:00 PM
Jeez PSE, your Aussie portfolio/watchlist is looking like mine was 10 years or so ago.

Loved the way WOR and QBE made heaps for me. Had Waste Management in NZ and only held TPI for a while.

Our approach must be the same, no matter where we are in the market.

I keep looking at all 3 mentioned as a reminder of the god times, and if they can be repeated. At this point in time none really excite me.

Last time it was good/reasonable company performance boosted by very favourable market sentiment that gave the excessive returns. I don't think those conditions apply at he moment.

Good luck anyway, you may be on to the winners. I be watching.

Lol yeah great that you had a spin on these and made money already.
This time it's poor performance and my contention is excessively negative market sentiment toward the same stock's. Reality should be somewhere in the middle, let's see how it plays out.

PSE
04-05-2015, 02:17 PM
I agree that there will probably be 10 years of bust to go with the 10 years of mining bubble we had. WOR gets 75% of its income from oil and gas which is presently troubled but not in such a long term way.I expect this is where the writedowns will be coming from.

Announcment today 2000 people to be laid off and I was correct with my speculation that the announcement was a writedown of oil and gas projects. 125m writedown and a reduction in profit to 150m for the full year.
Morale may be low with staff after many years of redundancies.
Not unexpected and in line with my story for the company, I am not trying to pick the bottom but buy when the company is cheap relative to it's long term prospects. This is a normal business cycle - the company was never worth $50 a share and is worth more than $10 per share over the long run.