View Full Version : ACF.Acrow Formwork and Construction Services LTd
percy
01-09-2020, 10:24 AM
They provide formwork and scaffold equipment [including rental] to the construction industry.
Current market cap at 33 cents per share is $72.10 mil.
They are profitable and paying a divie.
Outlook is for an increase in EBITDA of between 13.33% and 16.6%.
Strong balance sheet with only $14.6 mil debt meanns gearing ratio of just 20%.
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/acf.asx-6A992758/
artemis
01-09-2020, 10:44 AM
Also in New Zealand. Subsidiary or separate entity?
percy
01-09-2020, 11:05 AM
Also in New Zealand. Subsidiary or separate entity?
Looks to be an unrelated separate entity.
Started receiving dividends from Acrow a couple of years ago which I first thought was spam... Turns out they arose out of the shell of a disaster I had successfully forgotten... Noble Mines Group (NMG).
Had a look at their business business earlier in the year, decided it was interesting and likely to benefit from increased government infrastructure spending in Aus/NZ by post COVID. Was going to buy some more under 20 cents but got distracted...
The registrar they use is pretty cool, now reinvesting my few cents :p
percy
11-09-2020, 07:12 PM
"Late Put Through,Crossed" 2,232,236 shares at 33 cents.Total amount $736,637.
percy
12-09-2020, 12:51 PM
This article appeared in Small Caps weekly wrap.
Acrow Formwork and Construction Services (ASX: ACF)
What’s not so boring for investors is the ability of Acrow Formwork and Construction Services to thrive in the troubled times.
This is partly the result of a timely switch from the residential sector to engineered formwork for mega infrastructure projects.
Acrow reported a 22% net sales surge to $87 million for the full year, with EBITDA climbing 30% to $15 million.
Notably, June half EBITDA doubled to $9.5 million, while revenue surged 39% to $49 million.
This is because client projects such as the Sydney and Melbourne metro projects, Snowy Hydro 2 and Brisbane’s Queen’s Wharf forged ahead with minimal disruption.
With a record pipeline of new jobs, management is “comfortable” with broker forecasts of ebitda of $17-17.5 million for the current year.
The munificent board upped final dividend to $0.0105 a share from $0.01 previously, taking the full year payout to $0.0175 (a yield of around 5%).
Southern Lad
12-09-2020, 01:40 PM
Revenue and EBITDA were boosted by the acquisition of Uni-span effective 31 October 2019, so most of this growth (particularly in the second half) due to acquisitions rather than organic growth.
EPS (excluding significant acquisition costs) in 2020 were a healthy 4.62 cps, however they were only up 6% of FY19. Share price is an attractive PE multiple of these underlying earnings amount.
However, i’m concerned by Note 23 of the FY20 financial statements which details the consideration payable for the acquisition of Uni-span. The note states “a contingent payment of up to $4,250,000 cash, provided the Acrow groups EBITDA exceeds $18,000,000 for the FY21 Financial Year. At reporting date the contingent payment is estimated to be nil”.
Underlying EBITDA for FY20 was just north of $15m, which included 8 months of Uni-span. Second half EBITDA was $9.5m. So the directors are saying they don’t expect much EBITDA improvement in FY21 (adjusted for a full year of Uni-span) however if they do manage to improve profitability a bit, it’s going to cost shareholders $4.25m in cash. Therefore if EBITDA improves a bit, shareholders could loose much more than the EBITDA improvement. Worse still, the $4.25m will need to be funded out of net profit after tax so shareholders could be much worse off. Who negotiates deals like this?
percy
12-09-2020, 02:24 PM
No incentive to beat brokers' forecast.So the $17 to $17.5mil EBITDA looks likely.
Southern Lad
12-09-2020, 02:33 PM
No incentive to beat brokers' forecast.So the $17 to $17.5mil EBITDA looks likely.
Unless management bonuses are based on EBITDA!
percy
12-09-2020, 03:15 PM
Unless management bonuses are based on EBITDA!
LOL.Yes that could be fun.
percy
12-09-2020, 07:14 PM
A bit old but adds a bit of colour about them.Recorded December 2019.
https://www.acrow.com.au/about-us/
Southern Lad
12-09-2020, 11:16 PM
Does a listing from Private Equity vendors, who have failed to find a trade buyer raise any red flags for you Percy?
Interesting talk in the links you posted of the change in focus from residential to infrastructure coinciding with sale by PE. Also, ACF have chased acquisitions post PE ownership, which you would normally expect to see during the PE ownership transformational period.
Given that CEO Steven Boland was in place during the PE ownership, does this suggest he had a disagreement with his PE masters on how to take the business forward and extract maximum value for shareholders?
percy
13-09-2020, 08:23 AM
Private Equity .50/50 for me.Lost some money on Tegal.Made big money with Scales.Avoided Dick Smith.So judge each on their own.
I do not have any answers for your other questions.
The decision to withdraw from residential,and expand via acquisition civil is timely,with the very strong tail winds civil will enjoy over the next few years.I like businesses that sell off their low margin divisions,and recycle the funds into better margin sectors.Better capital use/allocation,and saves management wasting time on low margin business.A better focused business.In this case dropping 70% of their business to concentrate the other 30 %was very bold,and is proving to be right.
Southern Lad
13-09-2020, 09:46 AM
For me ACF needs to get some more runs on the board, but overall environment looks positive with Government sponsored infrastructure spend in Australia providing plenty of opportunity.
if they get it right, there should be good upside available on current (cum dividend) share price.
Personally I’m always happier to back an under the radar we’ll performing business with a good track record than back a business that the previous owners have moved on because they can’t see avenues to add value. Having said that, there are cases where listing a former PE owned business provides easier access to capital, coupled with the right management team, where there is still upside left. Hopefully ACF in this category, time will tell.
On the FY21 EBITDA, if H2 FY20 was $9.5m, then at the current run rate you would expect FY21 EBITDA of $19m. Curious that directors are comfortable with average broker forecasts of $17m to $17.5m, also the note 23 comment that they don’t expect that the $4.25m contingent consideration for the purchase of Uni-span to be payable because EBITDA won’t reach $18m. So no great strides forward for ACF in FY21?
percy
13-09-2020, 10:09 AM
I think your post sums up very much my thoughts on ACF.
Hopefully the right company, in the right sector, at the right time.
artemis
13-09-2020, 11:57 AM
Just a NZ scaff anecdote. Last week I told the scaff company (not Acrow but a decent size Wellington company) our job was finished but they can leave the scaff up for a bit if they wanted to. We give them the opportunity to leave if it's not in the way, saves them double handling. Last week, removed first thing the following morning. Unusual, but a construction indication like counting cranes!
percy
25-09-2020, 05:34 PM
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/acf.asx-6A997481/
The annual report was very positive,with a strong outlook, and I think that is the reason we have seen the share price rise on good volume.
Today 916,719n shares have traded and the last price traded was 37 cents CD,.
percy
28-10-2020, 06:28 PM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02300587-6A1003896?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
An extremely positive update.
Joshuatree
28-10-2020, 09:54 PM
Im seeing scaffolding all over the place including Acrow (nz). Folks renovating alot. Also spoke to a supplier of Double glazed windows. he was coming every day or so with one or two windows for renovations nearby, says hes booked solid into february.
percy
18-11-2020, 10:22 AM
https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLVth2f3f6IXNYvUBQEg/Wmy2B7rk2UJFjWGQHqH3og/rdjLW3892Oew9pt0VmSjVobw
ACF should get plenty of contracts with NSW $107b infrastructure spend.
percy
25-11-2020, 05:01 PM
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/acf.asx-6A1008940/
Positive agm CEO's presentation.
percy
01-12-2020, 02:36 PM
Had an email from KW.
Has joined us on ACF and feels we are "well positioned."...lol.
percy
19-02-2021, 08:53 AM
Interim Result to be announced Monday after market close.
I am expecting it will be positive,with a strong outlook..
percy
22-02-2021, 11:42 AM
What a cracker.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02344012-6A1021223?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
percy
22-02-2021, 11:42 AM
What a cracker.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02344012-6A1021223?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
RupertBear
22-02-2021, 03:29 PM
What a cracker.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02344012-6A1021223?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
Indeed! I think you must be feeling well positioned Percy and The Bear is feeling happy to be on board now as well :D
percy
22-02-2021, 04:03 PM
Indeed! I think you must be feeling well positioned Percy and The Bear is feeling happy to be on board now as well :D
Yes all going very well.ADA last week was a cracker,then this morning HGH here in NZ, and then ACF,PTB,and SES all came up with crackers.
A lot of "crackers"...lol.
Joshuatree
24-06-2021, 12:18 PM
Download Document 96.64KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYL4w20y RL0v%2FZ6%2BbFiGug%3D)
"Acrow also takes the opportunity to re-iterate its guidance for revenue of circa. $106m, EBITDA of $23.5m-$24.5m and underlying NPAT $8.7m-$9.5m for the FY21 financial year. The Company continues to target circa. 20% EBITDA growth for FY22."
Acrow Industrial Services Division Enjoying Rapid Growth:t_up:
percy
24-06-2021, 03:05 PM
Download Document 96.64KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYL4w20y RL0v%2FZ6%2BbFiGug%3D)
"Acrow also takes the opportunity to re-iterate its guidance for revenue of circa. $106m, EBITDA of $23.5m-$24.5m and underlying NPAT $8.7m-$9.5m for the FY21 financial year. The Company continues to target circa. 20% EBITDA growth for FY22."
Acrow Industrial Services Division Enjoying Rapid Growth:t_up:
Another excellent upgrade.
percy
01-07-2021, 05:19 PM
Another very positive announcement/.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02390764-6A1039081?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
Joshuatree
01-07-2021, 05:32 PM
Yeah great stuff. market seems a bit of an unbeliever maybe thinking margins a bit skinny? Happy holder here anyways atp. Your link didnt work for me heres anotherDownload Document 91.62KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYL4w21y Rj3v%2FZ6%2BbFiGug%3D)
percy
01-07-2021, 05:42 PM
Yeah great stuff. market seems a bit of an unbeliever maybe thinking margins a bit skinny? Happy holder here anyways atp. Your link didnt work for me heres anotherDownload Document 91.62KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYL4w21y Rj3v%2FZ6%2BbFiGug%3D)
Thanks JT.
traineeinvestor
01-07-2021, 08:47 PM
Agree the announcement was another very positive one.
I keep going back to the chart on page 7 of the last results presentation showing a massive projected increase in infrastructure spending over the next few years. For a company doing what ACF does, it should be like shooting fish in a barrel.
Disclosure: hold
percy
05-07-2021, 07:57 PM
Great seeing ACF hitting a new two year high today at 39.5 cents.
Have been tracking sideways for months.
Just perhaps we are taking off.!
percy
12-07-2021, 03:33 PM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02394406-6A1040464?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
Share price currently 43.5 cents.
percy
15-07-2021, 07:09 PM
44.5 cents close tonight.
Looks as though we are off to the races..lol.
traineeinvestor
15-07-2021, 08:05 PM
Still plenty of room to run on this filly.
I like that management are being proactive with the announcements + have plenty of skin in the game.
percy
22-07-2021, 11:37 AM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02397908-6A1041865?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02397911-6A1041875?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
percy
22-07-2021, 07:14 PM
Pleasing seeing ACF finish at 44 cents.
Thought the share price may have drifted down towards the 38 cent placement price.
Joshuatree
22-07-2021, 07:36 PM
Yeah and oversubscribed too :) but dilution re 12 %. Looking great atpit anyways.Glad i increased holdings a little while back.
percy
25-08-2021, 11:35 AM
Yeah and oversubscribed too :) but dilution re 12 %. Looking great atpit anyways.Glad i increased holdings a little while back.
Flat eps however as per page 30 they are forecasting 40% eps growth.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02411709-6A1047066?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
Joshuatree
25-08-2021, 12:21 PM
Yes that pivot away from commercial to Industrial scafolding and Formwork will underpin future growth and that chart of major transport infra projects for one shows huge increases in spending for years to come. Steady defensive stock in an expensive mkt ,with growth ahead imo.
percy
01-10-2021, 12:28 PM
Yes that pivot away from commercial to Industrial scafolding and Formwork will underpin future growth and that chart of major transport infra projects for one shows huge increases in spending for years to come. Steady defensive stock in an expensive mkt ,with growth ahead imo.
Another earnings upgrade.I love them..lol.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02429738-6A1053710?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
percy
04-11-2021, 02:00 PM
Another earnings upgrade.I love them..lol.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02429738-6A1053710?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
And so it came to pass we have had another earnings upgrade...........Just keep them coming ACF, I love them......lol.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02447506-6A1061085?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4I
percy
22-11-2021, 02:17 PM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02455370-6A1064046?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
A lot of good reading,however "the real meat" is on the last page of the presentation....lol.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02455370-6A1064046?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
A lot of good reading,however "the real meat" is on the last page of the presentation....lol.
I liked the look dipped in today.
percy
07-02-2022, 02:20 PM
The market must be expecting a good result on Thursday ,as it has pushed ACF's share price to 50 cents.
I think the market may be right...lol
audiav
07-02-2022, 05:06 PM
I tried topping up on the dip a couple of weeks back but missed because I used a limit. Fail �� . Should not have put the order in then headed off camping.
DarkHorse
07-02-2022, 07:29 PM
Still good value post camping trip!
audiav
07-02-2022, 10:07 PM
Agree, but one likes to buy during the sales!
NZSilver
09-02-2022, 07:08 PM
Certainly should be a good result for ACF, followed by more good results from ADA and PTB - looking forward to the next few weeks.
percy
09-02-2022, 07:24 PM
Certainly should be a good result for ACF, followed by more good results from ADA and PTB - looking forward to the next few weeks.
Perhaps SEQ will join the party too.?....lol
DarkHorse
09-02-2022, 09:00 PM
Perhaps SEQ will join the party too.?....lol
Already fantastic results from PPL, PTG and EPY and I'm also optimistic about ACF - and SEQ :)
nice result team. guidance lifted.
Half year just out.
I love it when the previous high end of guidance gets revised upwords as the new low end of guidance
percy
09-02-2022, 09:41 PM
A cracker.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02485092-6A1076435?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
The PE of 28.3 looked rather high.
Who would have thought eps growth would be 94%.
So eps growth was over three times the PE.
!!PEG .03.
And we get an increased divie eps.
Outlook
Expected eps growth 2022 on 2021 59%.
company had a run over last week - word either got out or market anticipated revised guidance - but I see at todays close of 51.5c and midpoint EPS guidance of 6.35cps the PE remains anchored at 8.1x. the market loves this business at 8.1x. it's ALWAYS at 8x PE. some business swing so wildly. this one - you know its worth 8x PE....I hope until one day its worth 10x :) eitherway - nice to see some consistency in how the market operates (well - over the last 6 months while i've been watching and eventually became a sh'r)
Joshuatree
10-02-2022, 12:27 AM
Party time :t_up:. Will the s/p finally rerate today. Only 20% franking helpful too.
percy
10-02-2022, 12:06 PM
Trading at 57.75 cents up 6.25 cents or 12.1%.
Have now come back to 55 cents.
NZSilver
10-02-2022, 12:55 PM
Trading at 57.75 cents up 6.25 cents or 12.1%.
Have now come back to 55 cents.
still plenty of value at this price
percy
10-02-2022, 01:36 PM
still plenty of value at this price
I agree.
Big infrastructure spend means ACF are "well positioned".
Right company, in the right sector, at the right time.
With the deferred acquisition payments out of the way, ACF should generate the cash to be able to keep taking advantage of the growth opportunities available .
DarkHorse
10-02-2022, 09:59 PM
company had a run over last week - word either got out or market anticipated revised guidance - but I see at todays close of 51.5c and midpoint EPS guidance of 6.35cps the PE remains anchored at 8.1x. the market loves this business at 8.1x. it's ALWAYS at 8x PE. some business swing so wildly. this one - you know its worth 8x PE....I hope until one day its worth 10x :) eitherway - nice to see some consistency in how the market operates (well - over the last 6 months while i've been watching and eventually became a sh'r)
I've only owned it for a few months but it looks like the PE was a lot higher in the past. With earnings growing strongly certainly looks to have a strongly asymmetric upside risk
DarkHorse
14-02-2022, 05:09 PM
I added to my position late last week.
Great look at how good the results really were here: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/acf-always-count-on-framework.5988273/page-160?post_id=59536590
percy
22-04-2022, 10:31 AM
https://stockhead.cmail20.com/t/d-l-fyhkujy-yupddjlly-yh/
percy
22-04-2022, 04:20 PM
another upgrade :cool:
Love them..
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02512742-6A1087743?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
DarkHorse
26-04-2022, 08:23 PM
Valued as a low growth, high risk company when the opposite is true. Fwd PEG <0.12
Interesting company .. jumped in for the ride ahead of the div :)
audiav
06-05-2022, 04:54 PM
Picked up a few when it dipped to 49 this afternoon. Happy accumulator.
percy
06-05-2022, 05:18 PM
Picked up a few when it dipped to 49 this afternoon. Happy accumulator.
Crikey you paid less than the recent purchases by directors.!!!..
Good on you.
percy
31-05-2022, 12:15 PM
More good contract wins.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02526817-6A1093744?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
More good contract wins.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02526817-6A1093744?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
yes awesome!
The dividend the paid the other day was rather chunky. Good to drip but good to bring across to NZD at current levels
I'm not au fait with who their customers are, by and large. hopefully they dont catch a stray bullet with some bad debts if a small builder goes under, but I doubt that is their target customer
percy
31-05-2022, 03:00 PM
yes awesome!
The dividend the paid the other day was rather chunky. Good to drip but good to bring across to NZD at current levels
I'm not au fait with who their customers are, by and large. hopefully they dont catch a stray bullet with some bad debts if a small builder goes under, but I doubt that is their target customer
I do not have an Aussie bank a/c and companies such as SEQ no longer pay by cheque,and direct credit into Aussie bank a/cs only..This means I take DRP when avaliable,such as with ACF.Disappointed to have sold out of SEQ,but funds recycled very quickly.lol.
ps.I emailed SEQ and told them I was surprised as a financial company they could not pay into a NZ bank a/c, when an aircraft engine repair business [PTB] could.
percy
30-06-2022, 09:33 PM
ACF share price strengthening again.
Positive the MD is buying.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02537138-6A1097794?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
percy
06-07-2022, 08:40 PM
Acrow CEO Steven Boland commented: " We are very much looking forward to releasing our FY 22 results on August 24
and updating the market on what has been a very eventful year for our Business . I am also very pleased to advise that our
secured Hire Contract total for the year just concluded has increased by 28% to $57.7 million on the previous year and is the
most important lead indicator to our future performance . This strongly points to another year of growth for our Business into
FY 23 . "
percy
06-08-2022, 05:33 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INLHBypb2Vw&t=635s
DarkHorse
08-08-2022, 04:56 PM
Great to hear him sound so bullish about the next 5 years!
Steve Boland knows the industry inside out, has a great track record and tends to be pretty conservative in his estimates.
The market is cautious on anything construction related, but the "massive" projects ACF will benefit from are going ahead, and he explains how delays due to shortages of labour and materials will only extend the opportunity for them.
This really does have both a great margin of safety and tremendous upside.
percy
08-08-2022, 05:39 PM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02550942-6A1103653?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
https://jackingsystems.com/
audiav
08-08-2022, 05:44 PM
Geez I’m trying to buy some more at a good price, stop it with the good news lol
percy
08-08-2022, 05:46 PM
Geez I’m trying to buy some more at a good price, stop it with the good news lol
Made my day....lol
traineeinvestor
12-08-2022, 02:29 PM
Another 12 days until the results get released.
Given all the positive announcements (including insider buying), my expectations are pretty elevated right now. :eek2:
percy
12-08-2022, 03:54 PM
Another 12 days until the results get released.
Given all the positive announcements (including insider buying), my expectations are pretty elevated right now. :eek2:
Mine too,and that is why I added to my holding at 50.5 cents.
As per usual the share price has come back a bit since.!!...lol
They do have DRP[dividend reinvestment plan] which saves me a few issues.
traineeinvestor
12-08-2022, 06:05 PM
Mine too,and that is why I added to my holding at 50.5 cents.
As per usual the share price has come back a bit since.!!...lol
They do have DRP[dividend reinvestment plan] which saves me a few issues.
Quite annoying that many ASX and NZX listed companies will not allow me to participate in DRPs or other capital raisings because I live in Hong Kong (even though Hong Kong law does not require any kind of registration or other formality to extend the offers to Hong Kong residents). :mad ;:
percy
12-08-2022, 07:00 PM
Quite annoying that many ASX and NZX listed companies will not allow me to participate in DRPs or other capital raisings because I live in Hong Kong (even though Hong Kong law does not require any kind of registration or other formality to extend the offers to Hong Kong residents). :mad ;:
Odd regulations.
You should get a cash divie later in the year.
Stay away from SEQ, as they only pay their divie into Aussie bank a/cs.
percy
23-08-2022, 08:33 PM
Enjoy...
An absolute stunner.......lol.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02556917-6A1105713?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
traineeinvestor
23-08-2022, 09:05 PM
Headline revenue and proof were indeed excellent but the operating cash flow was down and debt levels were up by quite a bit (even after issuing new shares to cover some of their outlays).
Still looks great and I'm still happy to hold but they need to get a handle on cash conversion - maybe focus on bedding down their existing business and slow down on the expansion.
Edit: subsequently seen the presentation which includes a very bullish outlook for FY2023.
percy
23-08-2022, 09:12 PM
Results presentation.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02556934-6A1105725?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
The increase in equity ratio from 38.6% to 45% is welcome,as I used to think they carried too much debt..
audiav
24-08-2022, 09:10 AM
Results presentation.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02556934-6A1105725?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
The increase in equity ratio from 38.6% to 45% is welcome,as I used to think they carried too much debt..
Thanks for the links Percy.
I love the power of photography (from the results presentation) so I can see what I own.
From where I am in NZ I can go and check on (some of) what I own, popping onto Central or Waitaki Valley to make sure the hydro dams (MEL/CEN) are being scrubbed and polished. On the way I pass by PGW signs and stores and MFT trucks politely making their way across the country. And looking forward to seeing whether SMI makes Central just that little bit more shiny in the future. Still don't own any SCT though, even though I drive past HQ frequently.
NZSilver
24-08-2022, 05:06 PM
Very tidy result
Growing very quickly
Should be 65-70c
This result and outlook should be the catalyst to get it there.
Also a prime takeover target.
I have been travelling and not paying (much) attention but what a very pleasing result and run on the boards this company has under its belt.
Re debt levels, while pleasing to see ratios come down, it is the sort of company that as it grows it tends to spend capex and increase debt, but during downturns turns off capex and spits cash and pays debt down.
percy
27-09-2022, 05:36 PM
Annual report.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02573071-6A1111473?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
And their outlook.?
We are confident of future growth and have provided
guidance for FY23:
■ Revenue in the range $165 million – $175 million, an
increase of 15% on FY22;
■ EBITDA (underlying) in the range $43 million –
$44 million, a 20% improvement;
■ NPAT (underlying) in the range $21.5 million to
$22.5 million, an increase of 23%
sampson
28-09-2022, 08:55 AM
Hopefully similar to last FY and they are being conservative and end up with some upgrades.
Much of that info is also discussed in the latest coffee microcaps youtube vid. XTE in that episode also.
percy
28-09-2022, 02:35 PM
Hopefully similar to last FY and they are being conservative and end up with some upgrades.
Much of that info is also discussed in the latest coffee microcaps youtube vid. XTE in that episode also.
Just watched the ACF and XTE presentations on coffee microcaps.
Most enjoyable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECiy-fsRosE
percy
21-10-2022, 11:28 AM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02585670-6A1116739?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
Another upgrade.
2023 EPS expected to be up 28% on 2022..!!!!
DarkHorse
21-10-2022, 08:07 PM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02585670-6A1116739?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
Another upgrade.
2023 EPS expected to be up 28% on 2022..!!!!
Mid guidance PE 5.8, EPS growth 28%, PEG 0.2. Wow!
It's notable that revenue forecasts are unchanged at this stage - ie now forecasting higher margins, with costs well under control and likely revenue upgrades still to come.
What's not to like?
and growth still in its sweet spot. bring on the next divy
traineeinvestor
24-10-2022, 12:12 PM
Per FNArena this morning, Morgans have increased their price target from AUD0.80 to AUD0.84 citing "ongoing strong momentum in the business".
EPS and DPS form FY23 are 0.09 and 0.035 respectively. That's a PE of 5.7x and a yield of 6.7%.
DarkHorse
24-10-2022, 04:51 PM
Per FNArena this morning, Morgans have increased their price target from AUD0.80 to AUD0.84 citing "ongoing strong momentum in the business".
EPS and DPS form FY23 are 0.09 and 0.035 respectively. That's a PE of 5.7x and a yield of 6.7%.
It's got the trifecta - Low valuation with strong balance sheet + Strong growth (with sector tailwinds) + Aligned smart management
percy
15-11-2022, 12:53 PM
Current Guidance for the FY23 as follows:
Secured hire revenue contracts in FY22 of $50.4m up 28% on FY21. Three months to 30 September up 32% on same period
last year
Capex orders placed in the first half of FY22 totalling circa $8m, now arrived and equipment on hire into FY23
Revenue and Profit to be generated from already secured Jump Form contracts
16
OUTLOOK
Forecast underpinned by:
METRIC (UNDERLYING) FY23 GUIDANCE
CURRENT % CHG ON FY22*
Revenue $165m - $175m up 15%
EBITDA $45.5m - $46.5m up 27%
NPAT $23.0m - $24.0m up 32%
EPS 9.0c - 9.4c up 28%
NZSilver
15-11-2022, 02:42 PM
There must be some gems coming out at the AGM, looking forward to reading the presentation. SP up 10%
traineeinvestor
15-11-2022, 08:27 PM
There must be some gems coming out at the AGM, looking forward to reading the presentation. SP up 10%
Yes. A very positive set of forward looking statements + a reminder that the next 5 years of estimated infrastructure spending in Australia are all quite a bit higher than last year's. Link to presentation below.
Have to wonder why BOL share price has lagged ACF so much - different businesses but both fishing from the same pond.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02598175-6A1122196?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
percy
15-11-2022, 09:43 PM
I held BOL 15 or more years ago.Promised a lot but never delivered.Always short of cash [equity].
Their current ROE is extremely low at 4.1%.
Current liabilities exceed current assets.Prudent not paying another divie.
They appear to be on track,so most probably worth a place on a watch list.
I hold ACF and DDH,which I prefer to BOL..
NZSilver
16-11-2022, 07:23 AM
I also had a cursory look, thanks trainee for pointing it out, one I had never heard of. Very low margin and very low return on assets. It wouldn't take much to push it back into loss making. Pe is also higher relative to acf, however I did note NTA was potentially higher than SP so there might be something there but certainly prefer acf with it's growth and record over the past few years. Always good to look at a company I have never heard of though.
traineeinvestor
16-11-2022, 12:49 PM
@ percy and NZSilver Thank you both for your thoughts. I tend to agree (which is why I have a sizeable (for me) position in ACF and a much smaller one in BOL). So far the "fishing in the same pond" thesis has not resulted in a decent catch for BOL shareholders.
what a remunerative ride this has been
percy
05-12-2022, 03:33 PM
Bit of movement today in ACF's share rice.
Last sale 60 cents.
Buyer 60.5.....Seller 62.......
Pleased I took DRP for their latest divie,[which was paid end of November]
DarkHorse
08-12-2022, 09:02 PM
Feeling well position with ACF and XTK as by far my largest holdings atm :t_up:
audiav
06-01-2023, 03:01 PM
Continues to grind upwards, 66 cents. Love the (albeit old) HotCopper commentary about this being a boring stock which will delight any owner of the shares.
stoploss
06-01-2023, 03:37 PM
Continues to grind upwards, 66 cents. Love the (albeit old) HotCopper commentary about this being a boring stock which will delight any owner of the shares.
It's in my 2023 stock picks so have added to my portfolio. Entry was 61.5 and I doubled up at 65.5.
Might be a speeding ticket coming 68 trading ....
Another day another profit upgrade
percy
22-02-2023, 07:50 PM
Another day another profit upgrade
I am learning to live with them...
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02634658-6A1137543?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
And their presentation.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02634666-6A1137550?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
DarkHorse
22-02-2023, 08:16 PM
Running like a thoroughbread but still still on offer at nag multiples despite good price momentum.
An acquisition and confidence re trading conditions and growth in 2024
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02651083-6A1143860?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
percy
04-04-2023, 11:43 AM
An acquisition and confidence re trading conditions and growth in 2024
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02651083-6A1143860?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
Pleasing seeing they are not issuing shares for the acquisition.
percy
21-04-2023, 10:34 AM
Another upgrade....Love them...
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02656648-6A1146068?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
Just another 8% upgrade in NPAT - or 49% growth year on year.
audiav
21-04-2023, 10:47 AM
Another upgrade....Love them... I followed someone’s (ie Percy) wise advice on ST and keep buying winners such as ACF and selling the losers and frankly the strategy is working really well.
traineeinvestor
21-04-2023, 11:11 AM
Yep - love the way ACF just keeps delivering.
RupertBear
21-04-2023, 11:17 AM
I followed someone’s (ie Percy) wise advice on ST and keep buying winners such as ACF and selling the losers and frankly the strategy is working really well.
Bit of a wee legend is our Percy! Always worth reading his posts :)
percy
27-04-2023, 07:35 PM
ACF finished at 88 cents this afternoon.Price is xdiv.
DarkHorse
27-04-2023, 09:55 PM
ACF finished at 88 cents this afternoon.Price is xdiv.
Don't recall seeing a stock rise while going ex-dividend before.
Now over 16% of my portfolio but seeing no reason to sell.
Another day, another upgrade.
And another acquisition - $6m upfront, conditional $6m in the future. Funded by cash and debt.
percy
26-05-2023, 01:44 PM
Another day, another upgrade.
And another acquisition - $6m upfront, conditional $6m in the future. Funded by cash and debt.
Yes,and I love them....lol
traineeinvestor
29-05-2023, 02:24 PM
FWIW, per FNArena this morning Morgans and Shaw and Partners have increased their price targets for ACF to $1.10 and $1.15 respectively.
I'm still seeing a lot of value on the table at current prices.
percy
10-08-2023, 11:19 AM
A HUGE contract win..
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02695996-6A1162699?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
percy
14-08-2023, 08:23 PM
Primary result
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02697179-6A1163135?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
percy
14-08-2023, 08:26 PM
Result presentation.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02697180-6A1163136?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
This is a nice little company
percy
23-09-2023, 11:53 AM
ACF's annual report.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02715384-6A1169857?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
Business remains in growth mode with a very strong outlook,with sound acquisitions adding to revenue and profit..
Pleasing seeing Cash Flow from Operations increasing 162% from $11,362,811 to $29,869,771.
percy
03-11-2023, 02:33 PM
Trading halt....
Acquisition, institutional share placement and debt facilities.
Sounds as though it is a biggie.
Details on Tuesday.
Previous acquisitions have proven very successful.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02735785-6A1178866?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
Got prompted to look at AFR's street talk. They report Acrow is acquiring MI Scaffolding, which will allow Acrow to offer over water scaffolding services to industrial players like BHP in Queensland. Raising $15m via placement @ 80c (6.4% discount), $15m raised via corporate debt raise, and earnouts payable should future EBITDA targets be met.
percy
03-11-2023, 03:05 PM
Got prompted to look at AFR's street talk. They report Acrow is acquiring MI Scaffolding, which will allow Acrow to offer over water scaffolding services to industrial players like BHP in Queensland. Raising $15m via placement @ 80c (6.4% discount), $15m raised via corporate debt raise, and earnouts payable should future EBITDA targets be met.
Thanks for the heads up.https://www.bing.com/alink/link?url=https%3a%2f%2fwww.miscaffold.com.au%2f&source=serp-local&h=IWeNN4Hbi3D6B44nK3vxkFLgbkVl9owxcUyfu7h9KsA%3d&p=lw_gb&ig=0EE298C18AAB4557B9B44F4E273C8ABD&ypid=YN3724x763261592612315148
percy
06-11-2023, 12:15 PM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02736271-6A1179048?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
Joshuatree
06-11-2023, 03:35 PM
Its a slowly,slowly catchey monkey sorta stock
4.6 million shares traded/crossed yesterday
92.5c close - record high
4.6 million shares traded/crossed yesterday
92.5c close - record high
Construction company at record high coming into a construction downturn?
percy
15-11-2023, 02:47 PM
Construction company at record high coming into a construction downturn?
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02740193-6A1180632?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
Page 22 has their updated forecasts.
Construction company at record high coming into a construction downturn?
believe me the thought has crossed my mind
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02740193-6A1180632?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
Page 22 has their updated forecasts.
just cant get over this feeling that buying a scaffolding business right now.. is possibly a bad move.. Scaffolding requires new construction generally.
Anyways you and Muse are probably the two that do the most research on a company around here.. so ill slink away into my hole and watch the SP 2x from here haha
just cant get over this feeling that buying a scaffolding business right now.. is possibly a bad move.. Scaffolding requires new construction generally.
Anyways you and Muse are probably the two that do the most research on a company around here.. so ill slink away into my hole and watch the SP 2x from here haha
The nature of projects is the big thing...they aren't putting up scaffolds for residential construction that is for sure.
But I can't shake the feeling in terms of where the business is at in the cycle like you. When I glace at my portfolio tickers and I see ACF the first thing that usually pops into my head is "time to sell?" lol.
percy
15-11-2023, 03:37 PM
just cant get over this feeling that buying a scaffolding business right now.. is possibly a bad move.. Scaffolding requires new construction generally.
Anyways you and Muse are probably the two that do the most research on a company around here.. so ill slink away into my hole and watch the SP 2x from here haha
ACF have a record of exceeding their forecasts.
disc.A few months ago I sold a bit over half my holding,after buying in a few years ago at 37 cents.
Think you can c where I recycled the funds.
percy
15-11-2023, 04:04 PM
That would be XTE??
Ha ha,I should have let on I bought the funds back to NZ.
2CC.
Clicked out a page and noted your last comments on both haha. I'm with you there, not here. Curious about this company though to see how they fare in the near future.
DarkHorse
15-11-2023, 08:30 PM
Clicked out a page and noted your last comments on both haha. I'm with you there, not here. Curious about this company though to see how they fare in the near future.
Low valuation + capable, aligned, conservative management forecast 2024 38% ebitda growth + strong balance sheet + strong track record (EPS CAGR 2018-2023 58%)= an excellent buy in my book.
DarkHorse
20-11-2023, 05:43 PM
Up 5% so far today :) Just keeps chugging away nicely.
DarkHorse
21-12-2023, 08:55 PM
Past $1 now...nice to have your largest holding do so well two years in a row and still look reasonably priced :) https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAbUAAAFyCAYAAAB yR0TRAAAAAXNSR0IArs4c6QAAAARnQU1BAACxjwv8YQUAAAAJc EhZcwAADsMAAA7DAcdvqGQAADUCSURBVHhe7d0HcF3XYebxDwA rwE6wiEXsVKFEFYpqtooVWbIVWS7rksQbJ5vEyTjZiWcnk8xkN 5nNbJvZmWQyG3s9zkzirB3HliXHdiyrWRIlUaJIiUUkRVLsvZM gCIAgOrDnu deCQTBAhIk3rvv/xveee2 B/Dh3PPdc 6555Y1NTV16SIMGzYsvQcAQP8JOaSGhga1trZq2rRp6bOXpjy9 BQCg6BFqAIDcINQAALlBqAEAcoNQAwDkBqEGAMgNQg0AkBuEGg AgNwg1AEBuEGoAgNwg1AAAuUGoAQByg1ADAOQGoQYAyI0BufRM bW1teg8AUMpGjBih9vb2frv0zICE2smTJ9N7AIBSVlVVVfyh5v 8AAAAVFRVqbm4u7lADACDDla8BAOgFoQYAyA1CDQCQG4QaACA3 CDUAQG4QagCA3CDUAAC5QagBAHKDUAMA5AahBgDIDUINAJAbhB oAIDcINQBAbhBqAIDcINQAALlBqAEAcoNQA4BS1dEq1R2S3ntW OrRJamlMXyhehBoAlKKTB6QNL0iv/B9p6d9L7/xQOrghfbF4EWoAUEraW6RjO0KgPS 99n lF/ 3tP4ZacebUu2 dKXiRagBQCno6pTamqSaPSHMvik9/7 kTb UykIMDKmUbvi4NOOOdOXiVdbU1NSV3j vYcOGpfcAAEWndr 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What a marvellous performance - up 71% - before divs! Drp has worked a treat this year.
realised my investment in acrow - various reasons - fantastic business and wish it and its shareholders all the best.
percy
29-01-2024, 10:53 AM
From this morning's LiveWire.
Acrow (ASX: ACF) (Add, $1.11, PT$1.22) Positive momentum to continue. Following four earnings upgrades in FY23, FY24 EBITDA guidance for 38% growth (at the midpoint) implies another strong year ahead. Focus will be on organic growth opportunities as well as the performance of the MI Scaffold acquisition announced in November.
percy
20-02-2024, 09:00 PM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02774651-6A1194614
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02774651-6A1194614
Every time I read an update on Acrow I think- wow what a wonderful business.. every time I fail to buy. Always regret it lol.
audiav
20-02-2024, 09:30 PM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02774651-6A1194614
woohoo, with the divvy i can buy some more. Wasted the last div on small HCL holding :scared: Back to my senses now.
those figures look pretty good into 2024
great performance. Bit of reverse fomo having realised my investment recently but helps me sleep well.
Snow Leopard
21-02-2024, 01:08 PM
As long as the uptrend continues this is a great stock.
DarkHorse
27-02-2024, 06:00 PM
great performance. Bit of reverse fomo having realised my investment recently but helps me sleep well.
I'll bite - can you share what it was about ACF that affected your slumber?
I'll bite - can you share what it was about ACF that affected your slumber?
Well I had a capital requirement that the size of my ACF nicely fit, so a superficial thought.
I've really enjoyed my shareholding in ACF. Bought roughly at 43-44c initially, enjoyed a number of dividends which had DRP.
I didn't take an overly scientific approach...I could have sold other shares, but the way I view it is at this spot price would I be more likely to invest in it right now...some of my more cyclical shares are impacted by cyclical forces and at the bottom half of the cycle - maybe not at the exact bottom but at least below the average of the cycle. So for those affected stocks I'm less likely to want to sell them. ACF has ridden a wave up, and I struggle pinpoint how much of that is due to its very capable management team and execution of their growth plans vs an underlying boon in construction. I have no doubt much of the growth is because its a great management team and they are sensibly executing. But with scaffolding, much depends on the utilisation rate of the kit. If utilisation goes from low to high it dramatically expands earnings and % margins. We've seen that at ACF - earnings, % margins, returns on funds capital employed, have really expanded these last 2 years.
But I've always been mindful the inverse could happen if there was a lull in activity. The sort of construction projects ACF participates in have been at high levels but I struggle with how to sort of determine how maintainable is that. IE when I purchased, was underlying activity at cyclical lows and its just rebounded to average levels, or are current levels now well above the average of the cycle? I don't know the answer to that and is one thing that always weighed over my head.
Finally I started reading about the number of mines that are being shut with gusto in Australia it gave me some pause for thought. I know mining is more around the edges type stuff for Acrow but they do participate in it.
I don't have any particular concerns around ACF or where it's trading or heading. Indeed I think its a marvelous company and has some legs. I just think my decision to sell was a confluence of the above factors.
DarkHorse
28-02-2024, 10:01 PM
Thanks for sharing your thoughts Muse.
They have certainly increases sales at a much faster rate than the construction market has grown, with increasing margins and very high returns on capital, by expanding into ancilliary products and services to provide and complete product offering and greater geographic footprint.
I take your point that sector tailwinds could reverse, but also note that a large share of their work is on long-term public sector infrastructure projects, as well as non-residential construction projects with long lead times (with only 10% of revenue from scaffolding nowadays and falling).
Just my initial thoughts...
Thanks for sharing your thoughts Muse.
They have certainly increases sales at a much faster rate than the construction market has grown, with increasing margins and very high returns on capital, by expanding into ancilliary products and services to provide and complete product offering and greater geographic footprint.
I take your point that sector tailwinds could reverse, but also note that a large share of their work is on long-term public sector infrastructure projects, as well as non-residential construction projects with long lead times (with only 10% of revenue from scaffolding nowadays and falling).
Just my initial thoughts...
aye there is a lot of good stuff happening. Do I have fear I've missed out (on the upside?) absolutely. Wished I had held on a bit longer with the benefit of hindsight. But I'm also a believer that on occasion its wise to take some chips off the table when you've had a winning hand. Maybe I was a bit influenced by my experience with Liontown (see the LTR thread and my posts on my investment there over the course of my holding). I praise the investment gods I realised my investment at $3/shr with it now at 1.27.
I hear ya on lots of good stuff on long term public infrastructure. That is a double edged sword in some respects. You get to park up your kit for long durations at a time - 100% utilisation on that gear while under contract and often for a large chunk of the fleet. When that contract ends, invariably it takes time to find a home for that kit and utilisation falls as does margins and earnings. It's a contract business at the end of the day and in my view its sort of inescapable the business will experience lulls between major contracts where earnings & divies take material step downs which has the potential to be followed by the SP.
I look at Acrow's end markets and I sort of see lots of end segments, like transport (mainly roading), power (various types of plants, maintenance shutdowns) and construction (apartments, social infrastructure like hospitals, commercial towers etc) and increasingly overwater solutions with their latest acquisition. That diversity is great because hopefully the pistons fire at different times. But I also don't understand the long term outlook for some of them. Roading I am most familar with and I think that is at or near the peak of many infrastructure forecasts, and I believe it to be a big part of Acrow's business.
Faced with these sort of conundrums I often fall back on maintainable earnings and how that compares to spot price. I don't think it fair to assume an average over recent year earnings (say the last 5 years including current year) because they've grown their book a lot. But you take the average return on invested capital over 5 years (operating EBIT / net working capital plus fixed assets), apply that to current invested capital to derive a maintainable EBIT, take off current year net interest and tax to get a sort of 'through the cycle' NPAT.
I didn't do that, as I sort of know the sort of number & multiple it would produce.
A bit of a meandering post. Just a flicker of my thought pattern. Don't take this as me poo poo'ing the company by any means, as I said previously I had a lot of various reasons to sell down. Happy to leave some on the table for the next guy and gal. Business has my obvious respect, as do all you fine Acrow shareholders.
EDIT: sorry last thing that had crossed my mind, but the upgrades stopped. That seems like a silly thing to say, the company has issued many and looks set to achieve its latest guidance. But the tempo of steady upgrades has slowed. In my little suspicious mind, I started to wonder what that meant.
DarkHorse
29-02-2024, 06:17 PM
aye there is a lot of good stuff happening. Do I have fear I've missed out (on the upside?) absolutely. Wished I had held on a bit longer with the benefit of hindsight. But I'm also a believer that on occasion its wise to take some chips off the table when you've had a winning hand. Maybe I was a bit influenced by my experience with Liontown (see the LTR thread and my posts on my investment there over the course of my holding). I praise the investment gods I realised my investment at $3/shr with it now at 1.27.
I hear ya on lots of good stuff on long term public infrastructure. That is a double edged sword in some respects. You get to park up your kit for long durations at a time - 100% utilisation on that gear while under contract and often for a large chunk of the fleet. When that contract ends, invariably it takes time to find a home for that kit and utilisation falls as does margins and earnings. It's a contract business at the end of the day and in my view its sort of inescapable the business will experience lulls between major contracts where earnings & divies take material step downs which has the potential to be followed by the SP.
I look at Acrow's end markets and I sort of see lots of end segments, like transport (mainly roading), power (various types of plants, maintenance shutdowns) and construction (apartments, social infrastructure like hospitals, commercial towers etc) and increasingly overwater solutions with their latest acquisition. That diversity is great because hopefully the pistons fire at different times. But I also don't understand the long term outlook for some of them. Roading I am most familar with and I think that is at or near the peak of many infrastructure forecasts, and I believe it to be a big part of Acrow's business.
Faced with these sort of conundrums I often fall back on maintainable earnings and how that compares to spot price. I don't think it fair to assume an average over recent year earnings (say the last 5 years including current year) because they've grown their book a lot. But you take the average return on invested capital over 5 years (operating EBIT / net working capital plus fixed assets), apply that to current invested capital to derive a maintainable EBIT, take off current year net interest and tax to get a sort of 'through the cycle' NPAT.
I didn't do that, as I sort of know the sort of number & multiple it would produce.
A bit of a meandering post. Just a flicker of my thought pattern. Don't take this as me poo poo'ing the company by any means, as I said previously I had a lot of various reasons to sell down. Happy to leave some on the table for the next guy and gal. Business has my obvious respect, as do all you fine Acrow shareholders.
EDIT: sorry last thing that had crossed my mind, but the upgrades stopped. That seems like a silly thing to say, the company has issued many and looks set to achieve its latest guidance. But the tempo of steady upgrades has slowed. In my little suspicious mind, I started to wonder what that meant.
Thanks Muse, I do appreciate your thoughtful post - living up to your moniker.
I think the modest valuation allows for growth well below what's been achieved over recent years.
Regardless, some friendly debate with smart investors like you is invaluable.
Thanks Muse, I do appreciate your thoughtful post - living up to your moniker.
I think the modest valuation allows for growth well below what's been achieved over recent years.
Regardless, some friendly debate with smart investors like you is invaluable.
The market is clearly saying you are right and I’m wrong :)
percy
01-03-2024, 12:16 PM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02780072-6A1196374
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02780072-6A1196374
I think one thing I should had better considered was Acrow's value as an acquisition platform - they operate in such a fragmented industry, and are able to make lots of low risk acquisitions at accretive multiples. The ones they have made look to have been successful and there is no reason why they can't continue to find and execute them. oh wells. nice wee bump in the SP today.
DarkHorse
01-05-2024, 07:57 PM
ACROW REAFFIRMS GUIDANCE FOR FY24... revenue guidance remains in the range of $215m -$225m and EBITDA in the range of $73m - $76m, representing a 31% and 40% increase on the previous corresponding period.
For the 10 months to April 2024, hire contract wins continued to expand, up 13% on the PCP and the hire revenue pipeline has grown to $150m, up 27% on the same time last year. Commenting on the update, Steven Boland, CEO said: ”It is very pleasing to see the business units continuing to trade strongly and in line with expectations. We could not be happier with the results sofar and the prospects of the MI Scaffold business within our Industrial Services division. It is an excellent business and is very well managed.
Whilst it has only been two months since we acquiredBenchmark Scaffolding, I am also pleased to say that it is trading in line with our expectations at thetime of acquisition. Over the past few months, we have secured new major medium to long term contracts across the Industrial division at the Ampol Fuel Refinery in Brisbane, Sun Metals ZincRefinery in Townsville, Kidston Hydro Project in North Queensland, and Abbott Point Coal Terminal inthe Bowen Basin.
We will continue to aggressively pursue growth opportunities nationally in theIndustrial market.”“One of the other major pillars of our future growth strategy is our internal Product Developmentfocus. I am pleased to advise that our most recent new product, Acrowdeck, has been extremely well received, especially in the important NSW market. We will be fast tracking the future production of thisproduct to capitalise on the opportunities that are now presenting.”
“Likewise, promising market activity and recent contract success for our Jacking Systems business willsee us moving at a more rapid rate with acquisition of product to cater for the expected growth.”“With the promising developments within our Industrial Services division and strong demand for our new product offerings, our capital investment profile is increasingly pivoting towards near-termrequirements. This all points to another expected year of strong growth as we start to look forward toFY25.”
Excellent prospects for a company currently available on a PE of 11X, on the back of a track record of several years of exceptional growth in both top line sales and bottom line earnings.
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