Which companies will benefit from a Labour only Govt, & why?

[Getty]

The people have spoken through the ballot.

Who will make money, and who may make less? .

[Greekwatchdog]

Can't think of any at this stage after all, looks like we are going to get a New Public holiday, 5 more days of sick leave for people to abuse, all more cost to business.

[King1212]

Work and income company limited...those who do stuff all ..sitting at home and breeding many kids....all will benefit with labour.....

[couta1]

No companies will benefit and more small businesses will fail over the next few years. PS-The people spoke to keep the Greens out of a power position I believe.

[jimdog31]

i do believe retail will be fine for the next 12 months - if over 50% of people are happy with the encumbent that represents a large cross section of society who remain confident/happy.

[Zaphod]

IMO retail will struggle over the next few years as costs rise significantly (min wage to $20 in 2021 and higher each year, new public holiday, double sick leave entitlement, fair pay agreements etc.), consumer wallets become tighter for anything other than housing, and the retail purchasing methodology changes significantly post COVID.

[couta1]

Can't think of any at this stage after all, looks like we are going to get a New Public holiday, 5 more days of sick leave for people to abuse, all more cost to business. Just what struggling businesses need after Covid, this is really going to help.

[jimdog31]

IMO retail will struggle over the next few years as costs rise significantly (min wage to $20 in 2021 and higher each year, new public holiday, double sick leave entitlement, fair pay agreements etc.), consumer wallets become tighter for anything other than housing, and the retail purchasing methodology changes significantly post COVID.

I agree post the next 12 months. Will take awhile for those effects to flow through.

[jimdog31]

IMO retail will struggle over the next few years as costs rise significantly (min wage to $20 in 2021 and higher each year, new public holiday, double sick leave entitlement, fair pay agreements etc.), consumer wallets become tighter for anything other than housing, and the retail purchasing methodology changes significantly post COVID.

don’t discount the positive effect of low interest rates on household spending.

[Greekwatchdog]

I wonder if the Govt are going to consider a Helicopter payout to All NZ's...

[Lola]

imo retail will struggle over the next few years as costs rise significantly (min wage to $20 in 2021 and higher each year, new public holiday, double sick leave entitlement, fair pay agreements etc.), consumer wallets become tighter for anything other than housing, and the retail purchasing methodology changes significantly post covid.

restaurant brands should continue to coin it. All the fat people voted for l.

[black knat]

CO2. Tracking NZ Carbon Units.

[stoploss]

Banks,estate agents, motel owners & current property owners.Current policy settings and lack of ability to build any meaningful housing supply is pushing up prices at an unbelievable rate. They called it a "housing crisis" 3 years ago , if this keeps going it's going to get ugly.

[steveb]

Getting rid of the greens has got to help New Talisman Mines surely?

[LEMON]

Getting rid of the greens has got to help New Talisman Mines surely?

Nothing will help Talisman Mines

[macduffy]

I wonder if the Govt are going to consider a Helicopter payout to All NZ's...

Why should they consider doing that?

[Greekwatchdog]

Boost spending and economy. They were considering it and last I heard was still on the table...

[Beagle]

don’t discount the positive effect of low interest rates on household spending.

Very true. With an average mortgage of $400K two years ago at 4.5% now at 2.5% that's more than $150 per week extra in people's pockets.

[fungus pudding]

Very true. With an average mortgage of $400K two years ago at 4.5% now at 2.5% that's more than $150 per week extra in people's pockets.

Not that simple. The 400k of two years ago is nearer 350k now on new purchases as a result of the lower interest rate.

[stoploss]

Very true. With an average mortgage of $400K two years ago at 4.5% now at 2.5% that's more than $150 per week extra in people's pockets.
Hi Beagle , the example you quote I believe is assuming Interest only . Most households will be on P&I. So the figures will be as follows . ( Still a good saving)
$ 400 K , I/O 4.5 % Weekly payment $ 346.15 :2.5 % : $ 192.31 saving $ 153.84
$ 400K , P&I 4.5 % weekly payment $ 467.39: 2.5 % : $ 364.53 saving $ 102.86

[jimdog31]

Hi Beagle , the example you quote I believe is assuming Interest only . Most households will be on P&I. So the figures will be as follows . ( Still a good saving)
$ 400 K , I/O 4.5 % Weekly payment $ 346.15 :2.5 % : $ 192.31 saving $ 153.84
$ 400K , P&I 4.5 % weekly payment $ 467.39: 2.5 % : $ 364.53 saving $ 102.86

Its also about the confidence/mindset of the homeowner. house price is rising, payments are dropping, i cant go overseas...

[macduffy]

Boost spending and economy. They were considering it and last I heard was still on the table...

Perhaps we've reached the stage where further borrowing - to distribute funds indiscriminately via "helicopter" - should be avoided?

[Greekwatchdog]

Not so sure and as the Labor Govt is known for throwing money here there and everywhere. Economy is in precarious position. Chch City center is awfully quiet and needs foot traffic and people spending...There is still a large gap with spending that can't be replaces. International Visitors..

[Getty]

Is anyone prepared to Speculate National "threw" the election, knowing the economy is precarious?

Anyone remember Winston's speech, 3 yrs ago, when the coalition was announced, that if the economy implodes, dont blame us?

Now we are 3 yrs on, risk level more elevated?

[jimdog31]

Is anyone prepared to Speculate National "threw" the election, knowing the economy is precarious?

Anyone remember Winston's speech, 3 yrs ago, when the coalition was announced, that if the economy implodes, dont blame us?

Now we are 3 yrs on, risk level more elevated?

That was just winny covering his ass. He was the first to say “the economy has gone great , thanks to us”.

[jimdog31]

Is anyone prepared to Speculate National "threw" the election, knowing the economy is precarious?

Anyone remember Winston's speech, 3 yrs ago, when the coalition was announced, that if the economy implodes, dont blame us?

Now we are 3 yrs on, risk level more elevated?

Considering almost 20 National Mps now need to consider their employment future I doubt they deliberately threw it.

[Getty]

Considering almost 20 National Mps now need to consider their employment future I doubt they deliberately threw it.

The reasoning being that if the economy does implode, Labour can take the rap, action some unpopular policies, a Nordmeyer Black Budget maybe, then National sweep back in on a landslide, without need for coalition, and those 20 plus more get their jobs back, if they want them.

[artemis]

Considering almost 20 National Mps now need to consider their employment future I doubt they deliberately threw it.

Agree, looks like worse than National expected, though not so bad when ACT is added in. Time to regroup and bring the ACT MPs up to speed.

Labour is now facing a tough and grinding 3 years. Ms Ardern has done her job, delivered Labour the victory and will have many pleasanter options available to her. Not so surprising if she moves on during the term.

Meantime, the unions will be gearing up for a big payday. Hopefully they will look at what employers will be doing to survive. Better pay and conditions for their members are grand until the automation takes over or the employers fold their tents. As far as this thread goes, I would be looking at sectors with relatively high union activity with a view to profit taking.

[couta1]

Agree, looks like worse than National expected, though not so bad when ACT is added in. Time to regroup and bring the ACT MPs up to speed.

Labour is now facing a tough and grinding 3 years. Ms Ardern has done her job, delivered Labour the victory and will have many pleasanter options available to her. Not so surprising if she moves on during the term.

Meantime, the unions will be gearing up for a big payday. Hopefully they will look at what employers will be doing to survive. Better pay and conditions for their members are grand until the automation takes over or the employers fold their tents. As far as this thread goes, I would be looking at sectors with relatively high union activity with a view to profit taking. Tough 3 yrs alright especially for small business but no worries for Cindy, she will follow Aunty Helen to the UN for a cushy number in due course.

[Beagle]

Its also about the confidence/mindset of the homeowner. house price is rising, payments are dropping, i cant go overseas...

Dead right mate. The wealth / feel good effect from national average house prices going up 16% is HUGE !!

[Waltzing]

yes for labour it was also a hospital pass, they get to govern a war zone. Of course winston church turned that into a grand opportunity in history.

which business get to prosper well it appear we should have kept ebos because we did not realise they do in fact do vaccines but it appears people in lock downs love their pets as much as they love their houses!!!

staples are usually the winners in recessions and that means agriculture of all kinds?

[Ggcc]

Who knows what will happen, but I fear it didn’t matter which leader took over. We all need to plan for the worst and hope for the best.

[King1212]

Retailers like HLG..BGP will benefit after all.

Why??

1. People can not go overseas...extra or left over domestic holiday money will be spent on clothing and improving the house.

2. Mortgage on very low rate... extra savings also encouraging.

3. Even homeless have pocket money, food n accomodations now... thanks to the labour and our tax money

[thedrunkfish]

So in your opinion the homeless should have no money, accommodation and food?




Retailers like HLG..BGP will benefit after all.

Why??

1. People can not go overseas...extra or left over domestic holiday money will be spent on clothing and improving the house.

2. Mortgage on very low rate... extra savings also encouraging.

3. Even homeless have pocket money, food n accomodations now... thanks to the labour and our tax money

[tim23]

Just what struggling businesses need after Covid, this is really going to help.


a lot of business owners clearly voted Labour too...

[tim23]

Tough 3 yrs alright especially for small business but no worries for Cindy, she will follow Aunty Helen to the UN for a cushy number in due course.

You are in the minority continually bagging the PM, get over it, she is here for a bit longer!

[King1212]

U can host them and give your money if u wish

[couta1]

You are in the minority continually bagging the PM, get over it, she is here for a bit longer! As I've said elsewhere we got the lesser evil with Cindy being able to govern alone, besides how is the truth bagging the PM, she will be off to the UN in due course. PS-40% of voters is still a big minority.

[fungus pudding]

a lot of business owners clearly voted Labour too...

That's called strategic voting. It was obvious Labour would lead the next govt. so getting their vote up would mean they would not be dictated to by the Kermits.

[hogie]

Not sure if things are going to be as bad as people think ... the government has borrowed ~$50,000,000,000 from future generations to pay for the "now" ... the next government in 2023 and beyond are going to have massive issues going forward ...
If Greens have their way the tax rates are all going to increase excessively which will likely mean a brain drain to Australia and other lower tax countries ... we will lose any competitive advantage we had and will have to import skilled workers from India, China, Philippines ... all we will hear "they are stealing our jobs" so the locals will get more handouts.

All a horror story .. I really hope this all doesn't come to pass :)



I don't see much upside for the stock market in the next 3 years ... goodluck to all!

[King1212]

Whats wrong with skilled workers from china...india or overseas...at least they show up to work..no bull****s....while our own kind...happy to stay home and don't want to go back to work because the labour will pay everything....

[fish]

Not sure if things are going to be as bad as people think ... the government has borrowed ~$50,000,000,000 from future generations to pay for the "now" ... the next government in 2023 and beyond are going to have massive issues going forward ...
If Greens have their way the tax rates are all going to increase excessively which will likely mean a brain drain to Australia and other lower tax countries ... we will lose any competitive advantage we had and will have to import skilled workers from India, China, Philippines ... all we will hear "they are stealing our jobs" so the locals will get more handouts.

All a horror story .. I really hope this all doesn't come to pass :)



I don't see much upside for the stock market in the next 3 years ... goodluck to all!

For me the election result was as good as could be expected -Greens no longer can force stupid hypocritical policies .
Hope Jacinda can see the need this country has for natural gas and start encouraging exploration.
I feel she has a good world profile that will attract investment here .
On Friday I discussed investments with a Broker-fixed interest versus equities -his impression was that older investors are asking the same question and cannot easily find good yield outside the sharemarket.
I deduced from this that the market may rise further this year-tomorrow will be interesting!

[Hoop]

Not much about this has been said by the Media......In reality Labour has shifted slightly towards the right to dominate "Centre Ground"...and has stolen Centre Ground from National ..With the Greens out of the equation and the strange silence from the Unionist fraction to influence Labour back towards the left, National is going to have a hard time regaining its Centre leaning voters.

Monday morning will be Business as normal (new-normal)

[nztx]

Peters stated "The Election has been bought by Covid-19" or something similar ?

As much as it may be good or bad to see NZ First wiped off the Political Spectrum for the time being
there seems to be some truth to what he said..

Where was Labour's indepth on the Fiscals ? Was there any or are the Forward Financials looking far to bad
that they didn't want too much mention of these to draw attention off their focus on "a Crisis breed of Politics" ?

Labour's focus on Covid-19 as if there is currently a Crisis appears to be the case.
The Crisis is well insulated on the other side of Border Controls & controlled / contained is it not ..
Is there even still a Covid-19 crisis in NZ now ?

Have we not seen "Invent a continuation of Covid-19" Crisis and milk it for all it's worth
to exclusion & very scant coverage of Economic aspects to the extreme ?

The blind public at large of course bought the Crisis stance hook line & sinker whilst conveniently
ignoring the grave financial consequences lurking, which will sooner or later catch up
with many in near to medium future..

[stoploss]

Peters stated "The Election has been bought by Covid-19" or something similar ?

As much as it may be good or bad to see NZ First wiped off the Political Spectrum for the time being
there seems to be some truth to what he said..

Where was Labour's indepth on the Fiscals ? Was there any or are the Forward Financials looking far to bad
that they didn't want too much mention of these to draw attention off their focus on "a Crisis breed of Politics" ?

Labour's focus on Covid-19 as if there is currently a Crisis appears to be the case.
The Crisis is well insulated on the other side of Border Controls & controlled / contained is it not ..
Is there even still a Covid-19 crisis in NZ now ?

Have we not seen "Invent a continuation of Covid-19" Crisis and milk it for all it's worth
to exclusion & very scant coverage of Economic aspects to the extreme ?

The blind public at large of course bought the Crisis stance hook line & sinker whilst conveniently
ignoring the grave financial consequences lurking, which will sooner or later catch up
with many in near to medium future..
Yes the truth is Shane Jones was in charge of the provincial growth fund . Spent a lot of money in northland and still placed 3 rd on the ballot ... Shane Jones has never won a seat ....at least the public has seen straight through him .

[mylovelyday]

I read somewhere Labour has promised a big infrastructure building programme, will Fletchers benefit from this?

[nztx]

The worrying part is that the current & continuing "Populist Party of Socialist Ideals" could on it's own lead the
Country badly down the garden path, with their scant understandings of Financial & Economic matters ;)

Frankly - would you trust some of the resident talent even with an empty Lolly packet ?

[nztx]

I read somewhere Labour has promised a big infrastructure building programme, will Fletchers benefit from this?


As we have seen elsewhere .. the likely scenario is

1. "We have Major Project X and are ready to go"
2. "Ooops we now find grave absence of eager talent & skills needed for job"
3. "We now try to import foreign Contractors especially to do Project"

seen this before ?

Let's face it fruit on trees rotting for lack of local talent, foreign fisheries workers & Dairy workers preferred..
while the usual quotient of our local lazy bums sleep soundly (on Govt Life Support until midday) not wanting to know
or lift a finger ..

Similar variants seen in Twyford's failed Kiwi House building scheme too - "No local skillsets for jobs available or even remotely interested - so we import them in from elsewhere" .. remember that during Twyford's KiwiFail days ? ;)

How does that synopsis look .. based on the Labor Govt's recent past record on projects ? ;)

[kiwico]

As I've said elsewhere we got the lesser evil with Cindy being able to govern alone, besides how is the truth bagging the PM, she will be off to the UN in due course. PS-40% of voters is still a big minority.

That was the argument in the office on Friday. Was it better to vote National and risk the winners being Labour and the loons or to vote Labour and hope they can get in without the loons. Time will tell as to what she decides.

[Balance]

NZ$ up - markets hate uncertainty so the clear election win by Cindy (whether you like or dislike her) is a major positive.

[fungus pudding]

That was the argument in the office on Friday. Was it better to vote National and risk the winners being Labour and the loons or to vote Labour and hope they can get in without the loons. Time will tell as to what she decides.

Ditto around my traps. It's impossible to know exactly , but it seems from my observations that the Kermits really gave Labour a boost with their tax nonsense. Look at the traditional farming/blue areas.

[couta1]

With all her new blue voters she will have to keep in the center to reward and keep them so this is bad news for the Greens IMO, status quo for the market as there was little uncertainty in the outcome.

[Getty]

I'd like to think you are right, if you pardon the pun, but I still dont think she will treat oil drilling and mining favourably.

In my view, NZ needs these income sources, to pay for all the welfare largesse .

[drcjp]

The people have spoken through the ballot.

Who will make money, and who may make less? .

All things being equal, the most money will be made by the MM, BP, HA, Bandidos and Comancheros.
Unfortunately, they don’t have a listing on the NZX.

Less facetiously, it would seem prudent to investigate unlisted, new companies that will reap the financial rewards coming from the DHB and education overhaul/revolutions. Plenty of cash is going to those areas over the next 3-5 yrs and there is much empire building to be had.

[Getty]

As we have seen elsewhere .. the likely scenario is

1. "We have Major Project X and are ready to go"
2. "Ooops we now find grave absence of eager talent & skills needed for job"
3. "We now try to import foreign Contractors especially to do Project"

seen this before ?

Let's face it fruit on trees rotting for lack of local talent, foreign fisheries workers & Dairy workers preferred..
while the usual quotient of our local lazy bums sleep soundly (on Govt Life Support until midday) not wanting to know
or lift a finger ..

Similar variants seen in Twyford's failed Kiwi House building scheme too - "No local skillsets for jobs available or even remotely interested - so we import them in from elsewhere" .. remember that during Twyford's KiwiFail days ? ;)

How does that synopsis look .. based on the Labor Govt's recent past record on projects ? ;)

Good points nztx.
While primary produce such as fruit falls to the ground unpicked, with the resultant loss of revenue & tax base, Rangitahi are sitting around as a drain on the taxpayer, being indoctrinated by the likes of the Maori party & Labours Maori caucus that they have been colonised, but are really the landlords of the nation.

What will Willie Jackson, the minister of Employment, have to say about that, or more to the point, what will he do about it?

[hamish]

Some thoughts to start with

EBO - Increase focus on Life sciences, assist with COVID vaccine & response once available, more pharmaceuticals access / spend and increase health grants
ABA - Increase dental funding
FBU - Benefit from proposed Infrastructure $bn spend (assuming FBU can profitably deliver...) across initiatives such as light rail, LGWM etc
CEN / MEL -could benefit from positive contract negotiations with Rio re Smelter. Tailwind also from lower interest rates, so yield more attractive. Support 100% renewable goal (MEL 100% already?)
MFT - Ongoing focus to keep NZD low v USD, so will increase offshore earnings. Essential Service - Any continued lockdowns and systemic shift to online drive logistics delivery and warehousing
FRE- Similar to MFT less so the NZD angle.
ATM/FPH. Some benefit from ongoing weakened NZD. FPH assist with covid vaccine response once available?
ZEL? - Speculative upside... They "potentially" have the infrastructure/expertise to support the Govt Hydrogen refuelling network proposed approach and 100% renewable goal. Could be a way for them to transition away from hydrocarbon (or at least be seen to..) and position for future
EVO - $1.7bn in Education. Increase funding for pay parity. "We've seen significant increases in funding for ECE, we're going to continue that - Hipkins". Additional tailwinds from flow through of Te Reo education funding
Others in Education sector? - Workforce incentive allowance directed into training and re-training (eg due COVID displacement). A big focus on upskilling, certification etc
Cannabis Companies? - eg CBD. Tailwind should referendum pass, regulation implemented, controlled manufacturer and distribution
RBD - Increased Govt welfare, flow through to consumer = continued / more spend on cyclical foods.
AWF - The "Business of Govt" will have more funding and more allocation through to Private sector via consultancy, advisory etc. Expect increase in resource demand and contractors into Govt.

[Getty]

Great work Hamish, thanks for the thought & work that went into your post.

[artemis]

So a couple of hours in, infrastructure companies are doing well, gentailers not so much. Early indication of money in one direction and compliance costs in the other?

[JBmurc]

The worrying part is that the current & continuing "Populist Party of Socialist Ideals" could on it's own lead the
Country badly down the garden path, with their scant understandings of Financial & Economic matters ;)

Frankly - would you trust some of the resident talent even with an empty Lolly packet ?

No not at all ...but as long as the Greens don't have much say I'll be happier to see how Cindy and Team drive forward with their plans and prob hit a wall of reality in time esp. around employment + Debt to GDP ... I'm sure the gap between the Rich and poor will increase even more in 3yrs ... is the way of Globalism...

[Zaphod]

In the shorter-term, I'm more concerned with the implications of the US election outcome. Either way, I suspect there will be internal conflict which will not bode well for markets.

By the time that settles down, no doubt it will coincide with the various tinkering that is expected (and ostensibly supported by a number of business owners) by Labour.

2021 will be another interesting year. Anything is probably better than 2020 though!

[tim23]

As I've said elsewhere we got the lesser evil with Cindy being able to govern alone, besides how is the truth bagging the PM, she will be off to the UN in due course. PS-40% of voters is still a big minority.

You too are speculating, she is very popular (even more so than Key) its a fact, move on. As for her future - who knows, you for sure don't!

[couta1]

You too are speculating, she is very popular (even more so than Key) its a fact, move on. As for her future - who knows, you for sure don't! You been drinking again?

[thedrunkfish]

Stick to the topic of the thread,it's not an opportunity to vent, that's what Facebook is for.
Whats wrong with skilled workers from china...india or overseas...at least they show up to work..no bull****s....while our own kind...happy to stay home and don't want to go back to work because the labour will pay everything....

[King1212]

Two words....piss off!

Uncle Peter is out parliament ..so don't need another peter to boss around here.

[causecelebre]

Is anyone prepared to Speculate National "threw" the election, knowing the economy is precarious?

Anyone remember Winston's speech, 3 yrs ago, when the coalition was announced, that if the economy implodes, dont blame us?

Now we are 3 yrs on, risk level more elevated?

I don't believe for a second they threw it. However, the conspiracist in me wonders if Nationals words around repealing the RMA was bait to lure Labour into a potentially failing position. Now we all know what a phaff the RMA is and how many vested interests there are in it. It will be interesting to see hows this plays out. We can see what a difference removing resource constraints made to Christchurch housing post earthquake (along with wresting away control of the district plan from the CCC).

[Schrodinger]

I think THL will be a good one. Billions about to be thrown globally into rebuilding tourism...

[Zaphod]

don’t discount the positive effect of low interest rates on household spending.

Yes, they're likely to have more money in the pocket. I also do wonder how much that will be eaten away by price rises due to min wage increases, freight etc.

From a personal perspective in retail, we've had notification of some items increasing 120% due to them being made of the same plastic that is now being used for masks. Others are increasing 20%-60% depending on the size/wholesale cost etc.

[tim23]

You been drinking again?

Just because you didn't like my comment do need for an embarrassing response (Balance would be proud of your response though)

[couta1]

Just because you didn't like my comment do need for an embarrassing response (Balance would be proud of your response though) Whose meant to be embarrassed, you or me?

[Beagle]

Back on topic I have been thinking about this question and I think Turners will materially benefit.
Increases in wages, benefits and the minimum hourly rate would appear to benefit the typical Turners customer, (if there is such a thing as a typical customer).
More people will be able to afford cars and those that have them will be more able to afford the repayments.
In addition I think the covid safety trend towards personal transportation, (as opposed to public transport) will be enduring.