RAD - Radius Healthcare

[greater fool]

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2012/S00152/radius-care-applies-to-list-on-nzx.htm


(https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2012/S00152/radius-care-applies-to-list-on-nzx.htm)https://www.nzx.com/announcements/364583

[bull....]

expect some funds to sold in other retirement stocks to buy some of this

[Baa_Baa]

With no new shares issued at IPO it looks more like an exit vehicle for insiders. If they’re not selling there’ll be no liquidity. Hard to see how they can be excited about new opportunities with no new capital.

Somethings not right with this, my bs senses are on overload

[peat]

isnt it a bit odd having no new securities offered to the public on a new listing. ???

[Baa_Baa]

isnt it a bit odd having no new securities offered to the public on a new listing. ???

Haha snap!

[Wiremu]

isnt it a bit odd having no new securities offered to the public on a new listing. ???

With the current NZX rules a two-stage listing makes sense in relation to costs: 1st a clean and tidy compliance listing (no need for a back-door listing with the extra costs and complications that brings - TIL/Bethunes as an example) and 2nd, some months after listing, a fundraising offer with the market having by then established a price range.

If I'm right Radius Care is setting a pattern that we will see repeated by others in future.

[greater fool]

isnt it a bit odd having no new securities offered to the public on a new listing. ???

No. If your expecting further expansion, then access to equity capital or debt securities, then a listing can be helpful.

[peat]

Haha snap!


yeh and I was thinking similar to you but you explained the concerns better.

What do we know about expected market cap etc its not even showing on NZX as an upcoming listing.

[peat]

No. If your expecting further expansion, then access to equity capital or debt securities, then a listing can be helpful.


With the current NZX rules a two-stage listing makes sense in relation to costs: 1st a clean and tidy compliance listing (no need for a back-door listing with the extra costs and complications that brings - TIL/Bethunes as an example) and 2nd, some months after listing, a fundraising offer with the market having by then established a price range.

If I'm right Radius Care is setting a pattern that we will see repeated by others in future.

thx team makes a little more sense with both of these comments together. if you were expanding I'd have expected new issue but if you need price discovery first well yeh....

[greater fool]

It's official. Ticker RAD.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/364583

[Wiremu]

Investor Presentation and Listing Profile now released:

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/b5a39e81/radius-residential-care-limited-nzx-rad-investor-presentation.html

[winner69]

Presentation here

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RAD/364740/337081.pdf

[trader_jackson]

Certainly an intriguing setup...
That person bidding $1.04 is certainly keen.

[nztx]

Quite a lower degree of bricks & mortar with this one, if I'm not mistaken

Probably deserves consideration as a truer health provider rather than Rest Homes owner & Property developer like others .. ;)

[Beagle]

Pro forma underlying EBITDA $21.3m $23.0m $23.7m
Pre NZ IFRS 16 pro forma underlying EBITDA $8.2m $10.2m $11.0m
Implied EV (including lease liabilities) / pro forma
underlying EBITDA 16.5x 15.2x 14.7x
Implied EV / Pre NZ IFRS 16 pro forma underlying EBITDA 20.3x 16.3x 15.1x
AFFO per Share – cents 1.78 1.67 1.99
Dividend per Share – cents at 50% of AFFO for FY2021 0.83 1.00
*Implied dividend yield – cash dividend declared 1.04% 1.25%
*Implied dividend yield – gross dividend declared 1.44% 1.73%

First question is what is AFFO - I really don't have the time today to get into this but the metrics do not appear compelling at first glance.

What I have learned over many years of investing in this sector is there is very little money in providing care services...the money is in the property development and especially the property churn.

[nztx]

$1.10 High Bid now even ;)

Sellers seem to have all gone on holiday..

[Onion]

With the current NZX rules a two-stage listing makes sense in relation to costs: 1st a clean and tidy compliance listing (no need for a back-door listing with the extra costs and complications that brings - TIL/Bethunes as an example) and 2nd, some months after listing, a fundraising offer with the market having by then established a price range.

Not much chance of gauging price if no one is selling!

[nztx]

$1.20 High Bid -- Earth to any Seller out there ;)

[nztx]

Holy Molly -- three Dollar 10 - boys & girls, but only for the eager must have want to buy ;)

[winner69]

Holy Molly -- three Dollar 10 - boys & girls, but only for the eager must have want to buy ;)

That’s why it’s called price discovery

[winner69]

Pro forma underlying EBITDA $21.3m $23.0m $23.7m
Pre NZ IFRS 16 pro forma underlying EBITDA $8.2m $10.2m $11.0m
Implied EV (including lease liabilities) / pro forma
underlying EBITDA 16.5x 15.2x 14.7x
Implied EV / Pre NZ IFRS 16 pro forma underlying EBITDA 20.3x 16.3x 15.1x
AFFO per Share – cents 1.78 1.67 1.99
Dividend per Share – cents at 50% of AFFO for FY2021 0.83 1.00
*Implied dividend yield – cash dividend declared 1.04% 1.25%
*Implied dividend yield – gross dividend declared 1.44% 1.73%

First question is what is AFFO - I really don't have the time today to get into this but the metrics do not appear compelling at first glance.

What I have learned over many years of investing in this sector is there is very little money in providing care services...the money is in the property development and especially the property churn.

Beagle ..AFFO

From other document -

AFFO, which is a cash proxy used by Radius Care to determine the level of dividend it can support.

And is defined as -

available funds from operations, which is calculated from Pre-NZ IFRS 16 Pro forma Underlying NPAT by removing pre-NZ IFRS 16 depreciation and amortisation and instead including maintenance capital expenditure

[nztx]

Mr/Ms 3 dollar 10 Seller disappear

Mr/Ms 1 dollar 31 penny eager buyer arrive ;)

Number traded so far = Zero ;)

[Greekwatchdog]

I don't even get why the put it on the sharemarket if there is no trading. How can one buy if if no one is selling?? I shall watch from my chair..

[nztx]

I don't even get why the put it on the sharemarket if there is no trading. How can one buy if if no one is selling?? I shall watch from my chair..


Agreed - why float / list it if the available shares put on the market at time of listing are next to nothing .. ;)

[Beagle]

Beagle ..AFFO

From other document -

AFFO, which is a cash proxy used by Radius Care to determine the level of dividend it can support.

And is defined as -

available funds from operations, which is calculated from Pre-NZ IFRS 16 Pro forma Underlying NPAT by removing pre-NZ IFRS 16 depreciation and amortisation and instead including maintenance capital expenditure

Thanks mate so if I am not mistaken nowhere in those metrics is the most commonly used, (for this sector) underlying eps and they are making up a new term to describe their distributable profit.

My opinion - There is very little money in providing late stage care.

[macduffy]

Agreed - why float / list it if the available shares put on the market at time of listing are next to nothing .. ;)

Ah, but there will be shares available, once the demand has been established!

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RAD/364739/337080.pdf

On a really, really quick look it appears:-
Net assets are 22.9m = 13 cps. At 80 cents they are saying the shares are worth 6.15 times NTA
EPS = approx 2.38 cps At 80 cents they are saying a fair forward PE = 33.6 (Higher than RYM) I am basing eps on 2 x half year net profit to 30 September 2020.
The directors seem to have taken great lengths not to disclose eps and especially underlying eps...but to be fair I haven't been prepared to invest much time in this.

Dividend yield of about 1.6%

I think somewhere around 20-25 cents based on earnings or 13 cents based on NTA is fair value. To be quite blunt about it I think the directors seem to be in fantasy land.
I am sure there's many other aspects to this but they are so far out of whack with where I see fair value I am not going to waste any more time on this.

People should note that interest bearing debt of $24.8m is higher than net assets of $22.9m. Highly leveraged, more than six times NTA and on a higher PE than RYM...thanks for the opportunity but I wouldn't touch this with a 40 foot barge pole.

[Wiremu]

Not much chance of gauging price if no one is selling!

Sellers are likely to come from this block, see page 11 of the Listing Profile:

6 The other shareholders in Radius Care comprise (a) shareholders that received Shares as a result of a series of in-specie distributions of Shares undertaken by funds managed by Knox Investment Partners prior to listing, (b) Radius Care staff members and (c) Harmos Horton Lusk Limited, which was issued 250,000 Shares in consideration for the provision of $200,000 worth of legal services to Radius Care in connection with the listing.

Looking at the Companies Office records these shares haven't as yet been transferred to those parties, so not yet available to be put on the market.

[nztx]

One hundred & forty nine pennies on offer at close & still no Seller showing any real interest .. ;)


must be a number of happy campers at RAD not wanting to part with a slice of the action .. ;)

[Baa_Baa]

Have I missed something, RAD is not showing up on ASB Securities? Apologies if a dumb question.

[nztx]

cant help you Baa_Baa - not with ASB here

https://www.nzx.com/instruments/rad

[Joshuatree]

It is showing up if you enter NZX in the stock exchange box

[Jantar]

Too rich for me to bid on. I estimate a fair price to be $0.20.

[bull....]

Too rich for me to bid on. I estimate a fair price to be $0.20.

looks very ricch in pricing based on current bids and based only on a care model

[nztx]

Where are the full Financials for past years with RAD ?

It's not as if there aren't any Financials produced for their EOY as they have been going for some time

It's an abismally hopeless showing on NZX's part to even allow RAD to be listed without past Financials
(unaudited ; adjusted or otherwise) being published IMO

Furthermore RAD have duty to keep the market informed & provision of past Financial Information
(not the scant coverage filed) would appear to be an integral on their even becoming listed

[Beagle]

Agreed. On a very brief look there was no way to determine what their growth rate in underlying eps had been.
Being vastly a care model I've assumed their growth rate is negligible.
I reiterate my warning that this is being floated on metrics that are well and truly out of whack with other listed companies in this sector such as ARV and OCA and as an unproven business that's dramatically smaller than the incumbent comparative companies mentioned I believe their metrics should be at a material discount to those of ARV and OCA.

To price this anything above 25 cents is scandalous in my opinion and begs the question on whether the directors received quality advice on this float or whether they have massively overrated their own abilities.

[winner69]

Agreed. On a very brief look there was no way to determine what their growth rate in underlying eps had been.
Being vastly a care model I've assumed their growth rate is negligible.
I reiterate my warning that this is being floated on metrics that are well and truly out of whack with other listed companies in this sector such as ARV and OCA and as an unproven business that's dramatically smaller than the incumbent comparative companies mentioned I believe their metrics should be at a material discount to those of ARV and OCA.

To price this anything above 25 cents is scandalous in my opinion and begs the question on whether the directors received quality advice on this float or whether they have massively overrated their own abilities.

OCA accounts get messy with just one leased village ...Radius accounts will be a minefield with most villages leased.

[Filthy]

To price this anything above 25 cents is scandalous in my opinion and begs the question on whether the directors received quality advice on this float or whether they have massively overrated their own abilities.

or maybe their just crooks....:scared:

[Relaxed]

I reiterate my warning that this is being floated on metrics that are well and truly out of whack with other listed companies in this sector such as ARV and OCA and as an unproven business that's dramatically smaller than the incumbent comparative companies mentioned I believe their metrics should be at a material discount to those of ARV and OCA.


Long time reader, first time posting
Thanks for all the work posted on this site I have found it very useful. I just wanted to share some gratitude to Beagle, and others.
It really helps to have other opinions when forming my own decision on whether to buy or sell

[Baa_Baa]

With no new shares issued at IPO it looks more like an exit vehicle for insiders. If they’re not selling there’ll be no liquidity. Hard to see how they can be excited about new opportunities with no new capital.

Somethings not right with this, my bs senses are on overload

Unbelievable, nice exit for a few inside holders, as twice IPO (which beagle reckons was over 3x its worth). Is this really value at $277m market cap! Good grief.

[dompf]

Unbelievable, nice exit for a few inside holders, as twice IPO (which beagle reckons was over 3x its worth). Is this really value at $277m market cap! Good grief.

Ouch Rad could stand for radiculous someone’s buying though. GL to them

[Arbroath]

Unbelievable, nice exit for a few inside holders, as twice IPO (which beagle reckons was over 3x its worth). Is this really value at $277m market cap! Good grief.

This is quite bizarre. The Board only a few weeks ago agreed the equity was worth c. $0.80 and they are near $1.70 today

Low interest rates are really starting to see rampant speculation in markets....look at AirBNB and Doordash more than doubling on opening day and there are many others doing the same in the US that are less well known.

[Beagle]

The only way I can explain it is there's a percentage of people who are speculators, (not investors) and to them fundamental's mean nothing.

[macduffy]

The only way I can explain it is there's a percentage of people who are speculators, (not investors) and to them fundamental's mean nothing.

Momentum's the name of the game there!

[Sideshow Bob]

Might be quite interesting to see who is selling and who is buying.........not implying anything at all!!

[beetills]

Have heard from a reliable source that staff with 10 years service are to be allocated 1200 shares each.If true well done.

[flyinglizard]

Cannot find any financial information of RAD. Anybody has some ideas about its fundamental?

[nztx]

Cannot find any financial information of RAD. Anybody has some ideas about its fundamental?


The nearest I could find a while back was in NZX published Listing profile for RAD:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RAD/364739/337080.pdf


Key Financials (P&L & Balance Sheet Summary) are on page 56


Supported by Investor Presentation:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RAD/364740/337081.pdf


No full audited / unaudited Financial Accounts appear to have been filed or provided so far

[flyinglizard]

The nearest I could find a while back was in NZX published Listing profile for RAD:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RAD/364739/337080.pdf


Key Financials (P&L & Balance Sheet Summary) are on page 56


Supported by Investor Presentation:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RAD/364740/337081.pdf


No full audited / unaudited Financial Accounts appear to have been filed or provided so far

Thanks, nztx. The numbers look horrible.

[nztx]

Is this a Relisting of the early 2000's Radius Float ?

No new shares were offered on recent listing on NZX

[Scrunch]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RAD/364739/337080.pdf

On a really, really quick look it appears:-
Net assets are 22.9m = 13 cps. At 80 cents they are saying the shares are worth 6.15 times NTA
EPS = approx 2.38 cps At 80 cents they are saying a fair forward PE = 33.6 (Higher than RYM) I am basing eps on 2 x half year net profit to 30 September 2020.
The directors seem to have taken great lengths not to disclose eps and especially underlying eps...but to be fair I haven't been prepared to invest much time in this.

Dividend yield of about 1.6%

I think somewhere around 20-25 cents based on earnings or 13 cents based on NTA is fair value. To be quite blunt about it I think the directors seem to be in fantasy land.
I am sure there's many other aspects to this but they are so far out of whack with where I see fair value I am not going to waste any more time on this.

People should note that interest bearing debt of $24.8m is higher than net assets of $22.9m. Highly leveraged, more than six times NTA and on a higher PE than RYM...thanks for the opportunity but I wouldn't touch this with a 40 foot barge pole.

As a public service announcement, I'd agree with Beagle's view and good luck to anyone holding. Its going to take a lot of profitability growth to make this worth the current share price of $1.09 (mkt cap $192m).

From the NZX listing document
2018 net profit $3.8m
2019 net profit $4.2m
2020 net profit (loss) ($2.8)
2020 six months to Sep 2020 net profit $2.1m

There were 176,495,000 shares on issue so a circa $4m net surplus is only 2.3c/share.

AFFCO in 2021 is forecast at $2.9 - $3.5m and dividends are 50-70% of this for a dividend payout of about $1.8m (1c/share).

They don't appear to have provided any 2022 forecasts (a warning in itself).

While high EBITDA figures superficially look appealing, this company looks hard to value at even $100m.
Disc don't hold and won't hold at this sort of price.

[winner69]

Maybe RAD will be goer one day ..maybe

Going to build things

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/370227

[Grimy]

Share placement offer today. Shares to be priced at no more than 60 cents.
Closes today.

[herbert240]

I am not brave enough for this one.

[Jantar]

I am not brave enough for this one. Neither am I. I looked at it briefly, but can't really see any upside to their earnings.

[winner69]

Be interesting if book build only gets 50 cents …….last share price 90 cents

[Joshuatree]

At 50c thats re 33% discount to the post raise diluted s/p, 75.5c. No mention of big management holders applying that i could see

OFFER: RAD: OFFER: RAD: Radius announces up to $50m equity raising to fund growth. (https://online.asb.co.nz/ost/4A6F42BC77B249EC78A0D1FA8359275E/companyannouncements/showannouncement/nzx/rad?issuercode=rad&number=375288&ispdf=false)

[Beagle]

Why would anyone pay 4.6 times NTA when you can buy anything else in this sector with a proven track record on FAR more compelling fundamental's ? (e.g. OCA and ARV at around 1.25 - 1.4 times NTA)

The companies laser focus on reporting EBITDA numbers could easily be misconstrued by naïve investors as being real earnings.

[ralph]

Be interesting if book build only gets 50 cents …….last share price 90 cents
Seems a good deal then you could sell on at a profit and be a winner

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I do love a good stag... but no thanks.

[ralph]

Be interesting if book build only gets 50 cents …….last share price 90 cents
Seems a good deal then you could sell on at a profit and be a winner

[flyinglizard]

too expensive, a long way to drop to fair value

[Jantar]

I am not brave enough for this one. Neither am I. I looked at it briefly, but can't really see any upside to their earnings.

[ralph]

Dipped me toe not expecting a multibagger ,but I reckon here be a profit there .

[Joshuatree]

No. If your expecting further expansion, then access to equity capital or debt securities, then a listing can be helpful.

Quote Wiremu "With the current NZX rules a two-stage listing makes sense in relation to costs: 1st a clean and tidy compliance listing (no need for a back-door listing with the extra costs and complications that brings - TIL/Bethunes as an example) and 2nd, some months after listing, a fundraising offer with the market having by then established a price range.

If I'm right Radius Care is setting a pattern that we will see repeated by others in future."

Spot on guys.We wont know if management who owned practically all of the shares on listing are participating in this, you'd think they would if they backed the company , esp @ 50c and to avoid big dilution, we will see. I opted out of the opp.

[ralph]

It will be interesting to see what happens when trading is resumed :eek2:

[Joshuatree]

Good luck mate,you could prove us all wrong,although there may well be a few lurkers here dissing it whilst contacting Craig's etc and hoovering up all they can.It is the newest and lowest quality stock in its sector yet to prove itself.

[Scrunch]

[QUOTE=ralph;894342]It will be interesting to see what happens when trading is resumed :eek2:[/QUOT. E]

Well despite the large discount to the closing price, this cap raise will increase assets per share. As at 31 March 2021, RAD had net assets of $24.093m with 176.465m shares on issue. Net assets pre raise were $0.137

Assuming the full $50m is achieved at 50c, this will become $74.1m of net assets with 276.465m shares on issue. Net assets have increased to $0.278. Issue costs will then take this down a little bit.

Disc don't hold

[Scrunch]

[QUOTE=ralph;894342]It will be interesting to see what happens when trading is resumed :eek2:[/QUOT. E]

Well despite the large discount to the closing price, this cap raise will increase assets per share. As at 31 March 2021, RAD had net assets of $24.093m with 176.465m shares on issue. Net assets pre raise were $0.137

Assuming the full $50m is achieved at 50c, this will become $74.1m of net assets with 276.465m shares on issue. Net assets have increased to $0.278. Issue costs will then take this down a little bit.

Disc don't hold

[flyinglizard]

Pb ratio
oca 1.26
arv 1.45
sum 2.25
rym 2.375

rad over 4 after new share issued

why buying a leasehold at a super high price, rather than holding freeholds at lower prices.

[Sideshow Bob]

Well fully subscribed at 52c.....

Radius Care announces fully subscribed $30m placement. - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/375357)

The Placement price represents a discount of 42.0% to the 5-day VWAP of $0.8969 (up to and including 7 July 2021) and a discount to the theoretical post raise price of $0.7660 of 32.1% based on the last close price of $0.90 on Wednesday, 7 July 2021 and the Placement price of $0.52 (and assuming a raise of $50 million).

[percy]

Hard on any one who brought RAD shares at over 90 cents.

[winner69]

Good outcome for them -- over subscribed and book build at 52 cents

Note the invitation to non holders - you can buy on market up to the 20th so you can participate in the retails offer ....and get a bargain?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RAD/375357/349982.pdf

[winner69]

Only achieving $30mil of the $50mil hoped for, may mean a lot of RAD shareholders will go into care.!

Another 10m coming from the Ohaupo (vendor) and 10m in retail offer

[Sideshow Bob]

Duplicate....

[Beagle]

Shares only down 5 cps to 85 cents. All I can say is there must be a lot of people who are investing without understanding that the metrics are far more demanding for RAD than companies in this sector with a vastly longer and more successful track record.

[turnip]

I don't understand why there are still bids in the mid 80s today, when anyone who wanted shares could have taken part in the placement knowing they would pay a maximum of $0.60.

(I took part in the placement via Sharesies.)

[Beagle]

The smaller a company the more likelihood of inefficient market pricing.

[turnip]

I also hold OCA and ARV, my RAD purchase was funded by profits from those two and it will occupy a much smaller position in my portfolio. I have only put in one third of what I plan for my final RAD investment via the placement as I expected the price to drop rapidly to the placement price and perhaps lower, but if that doesn't happen then I will just sit on what I got via the placement. Also expect more capital raisings in the not to distant future, so I don't see and great hurry to buy in and will just build up to my final investment level if and when the opportunities come.

[flyinglizard]

12728

different with other retirement villages

[ronaldson]

Agree the market is not yet pricing this share efficiently ( perhaps both before, as well as after, the capital raise ). Still, an entry price for a new holder at $0.52 doesn't seem too high risk, and daily liquidity should incrementally improve with the increased issue. I expect the next month or so will tell a tale as to the fundamental price level, given finalisation is still dependent on the SGM later this month and settlement of the allocations via the institutional book build and subsequently the SPP for existing holders, and those who buy on-market by 20 July and are eligible for the SPP which may be one contributing reason for the current price level.

[winner69]

New shares being hocked off today

Down to 66 cents so far

[Balance]

New shares being hocked off today

Down to 66 cents so far

Why not?

$30m of new shares issued at 52c with no restrictions and with another $10m to follow.

[Maxtrade]

Why not?

$30m of new shares issued at 52c with no restrictions and with another $10m to follow.

In your opinion Balance, do you see the SP dropping back below 0.52c with such a large amount of extra shares released. I would have expected a little push higher like we saw yesterday, followed by a consolidation back down to the release price 0.52 (and maybe a little lower once the demand subsides) before then taking an uptrend in the following months.

[ronaldson]

Retail Offer closed at 5.00pm last night so we are due an announcement and a Capital Change Notice shortly. SP currently at $0.59 so considerable adjustment ( in the direction of reality ) since my post exactly one month ago now. That said I think low 60's is more likely in a further week or so when all the dust has settled. But it is true that since a large number of shares have been acquired now at 52c there will be a preponderance of sellers for some time as profits are taken.

[ronaldson]

Announcement and Capital Change Notice now filed. Retail raise included acceptance of all oversubscriptions, raising $8.2m, so now almost 270m shares on issue ( from tomorrow ). Ohaupo acquisition completed on 5 August, with the balance of funds raised no doubt applied to repay borrowings, at least in the near term - bank debt was $24.5m as at 31 March, so will at least mitigate interest liability with immediate effect.

Share price now $0.55 so approaching the capital raise price. Doesn't appear to bear any relationship to the so-called theoretical ex raise price of 76.6c when the overall raise was first announced to the market. Me thinks much wishful thinking/window dressing involved. Still believe SP will reach low 60's in the reasonably near term when the market has digested these events and the early sellers have been placated.

[winner69]

Announcement and Capital Change Notice now filed. Retail raise included acceptance of all oversubscriptions, raising $8.2m, so now almost 270m shares on issue ( from tomorrow ). Ohaupo acquisition completed on 5 August, with the balance of funds raised no doubt applied to repay borrowings, at least in the near term - bank debt was $24.5m as at 31 March, so will at least mitigate interest liability with immediate effect.

Share price now $0.55 so approaching the capital raise price. Doesn't appear to bear any relationship to the so-called theoretical ex raise price of 76.6c when the overall raise was first announced to the market. Me thinks much wishful thinking/window dressing involved. Still believe SP will reach low 60's in the reasonably near term when the market has digested these events and the early sellers have been placated.

That theo ex raise price oh 76.6 cents only means something if the pre-announcement share price of 90 cents odd actually meant something.

Market saying it didn’t and coming up with a price that is is more ‘sensible’

[Shareguy]

I agree with winner69. A terrible float. Wage inflation will put a lot of pressure on the care model. Even at current price, fail to see the attraction. Good luck to holders though.

[ronaldson]

I was wrong. Share price will not reach low 60's in the near term. Experienced CEO now leaving soon, and the Covid outbreak effect will impact for a while. A lot of sellers around. Best case will be a good result for half year ending 30 September, and that looking somewhat dubious.

[ralph]

Hi Ronaldson I bought in the placement to sell off as did a lot of others so it was bound to go down to that sp placement price as it has.
Why is the c e o leaving do you know is it family reasons as per usual !!
I do not see radius & the care sector being affected by covid as much as a lot of other industries ,tourism hospitality etc
Lets see where we are at hy results sept I see no reasons why it should not bump up to the low 60s then .

[ronaldson]

No, I don't know why but he was Radius CFO for 7 years until 2017 and returned in 2020 " to assist with NZX listing " now of course achieved. His CV is impressive so could move on easily if that is his intention. Brien Cree, the Radius Founder in 2003 and still a large shareholder and currently Executive Chair and MD, will take over temporarily.

The GM Commercial Service is also leaving in September after joining in 2007. This may just be a natural cycle of folk retiring or looking for a new role, but taken together it is a loss of experience from the management team.

[Maxtrade]

Hi Ronaldson I bought in the placement to sell off as did a lot of others so it was bound to go down to that sp placement price as it has.
Why is the c e o leaving do you know is it family reasons as per usual !!
I do not see radius & the care sector being affected by covid as much as a lot of other industries ,tourism hospitality etc
Lets see where we are at hy results sept I see no reasons why it should not bump up to the low 60s then .

Surprised SP didn't at least hold at 0.52

SUM, RYM, OCA all doing well recently. Why is RAD seem to be lagging. Wouldn't imagine buying in at under 0.6 would be anything but more upside potential short term. Surprised to see sub 0.52. Is it just a matter of time for cap raise to settle and naturally we will see SP push back up again above 0.6? First need to see short term traders who are only looking for small profits to clear out the way 0.52-0.59. Then likely see a more steady rise back up from there.

[Beagle]

May I suggest you folks go back to the start of this thread and re-read the whole thing. Many very experienced investors on here have already made their opinion of this one crystal clear.

[winner69]

If Radius was priced akin to Oceania it would be valued at about 35 cents (post cap raise)

[ronaldson]

Interesting that Brien Cree seems to now have spent Radius shareholder money on a full page " advertisement " in todays NZ Herald berating the government for the nurses shortage in this country, and their Covid response to that and related concerns. He is probably right in his observations, but one could infer much of the rant is driven by real underlying staffing issues Radius must be experiencing, notwithstanding this will be common sector-wide.

[dobby41]

Interesting that Brien Cree seems to now have spent Radius shareholder money on a full page " advertisement " in todays NZ Herald berating the government for the nurses shortage in this country, and their Covid response to that and related concerns. He is probably right in his observations, but one could infer much of the rant is driven by real underlying staffing issues Radius must be experiencing, notwithstanding this will be common sector-wide.

Not the first time - there was an add the other day.
Maybe he should take charge of the situation - employ some trainees, train them up, bond them for a while and pay them well to keep them.
I get sick of companies blaming others for everything that happens - in this case they could take control of some of their destiny.
They'd rather moan and poach staff than make staff.

[Beagle]

If Radius was priced akin to Oceania it would be valued at about 35 cents (post cap raise)

OCA has earned the right to trade at a modest premium to NTA, some other companies haven't.

[winner69]

OCA has earned the right to trade at a modest premium to NTA, some other companies haven't.

Which is saying fair value is about 30 cents …..jeez 52 cents is way above that

[winner69]

Slowly but surely the share price is heading into the 40s

Getting closer to fair value

[ralph]

“Never forget that people who’s self interest is diametrically opposed to your own are trying to persuade you to act every day”

[winner69]

“Never forget that people who’s self interest is diametrically opposed to your own are trying to persuade you to act every day”



You read that guys book?

[kiwimalayalee]

Any news...?? Quite a volume today...

[Maxtrade]

Slowly but surely the share price is heading into the 40s

Getting closer to fair value

40's Would load up at that price. Seems to me like it is more likely heading back up to break 0.60 pretty shortly. Probably settle in around 0.66 -0.68 once profit takers washout after the 0.52 SPP. Some traders will take a quick 15-20% profit and be happy with that selling at 0.60. But once they filter through will gradually rally up above 0.65. Who has the crystal ball, time will tell. Will check up on my analysis of this in a couple of weeks and see where SP is sitting.

[nztx]

Is that fairly impressive NTA on RAD's NZX page correct ? ;)


TWO CENTS

Okay for those who like Zeros & $ signs


$0.02


P/E almost 58

[winner69]

Good they got $62m banking facility all jacked up

This bit at end of announcement - hope they don’t all sell down in a hurry

the shares in Radius Care held by Wave Rider Holdings Limited, Knox Fund IV NZD LP and Knox Fund IV AUD LP have been released from the restrictions under those escrow arrangements.

[metalstorm]

@winner69 - It looks like on the 22/09 those companies reduced their holdings...so with them selling down in a hurry, what would that imply? Curious what you think and how to interpret that activity? Thanks!

[Balance]

@winner69 - It looks like on the 22/09 those companies reduced their holdings...so with them selling down in a hurry, what would that imply? Curious what you think and how to interpret that activity? Thanks!

There’s no sell down - same number of shares but lower %tage due to CR.

[metalstorm]

There’s no sell down - same number of shares but lower %tage due to CR.

Thanks @Balance - completely missed that. I just saw a decrease in amounts and percentage in the market notice and assumed that they were sold off. Thanks for clarifying.

[Maxtrade]

There’s no sell down - same number of shares but lower %tage due to CR.

Why are we seeing such a large sell volume at recent lows of 0.54 today?

[Maxtrade]

Thanks @Balance - completely missed that. I just saw a decrease in amounts and percentage in the market notice and assumed that they were sold off. Thanks for clarifying.

Shareholders seem to be beating Radius up a bit pushing down to 0.50/0.51 ? Surprised we haven't seen a bit of a bounce and rally yet off 0.5.

[winner69]

Maxtrade … I still reckon 52 cents is way overvalued …. not an attractive proposition at current price.

[ralph]

Shareholders seem to be beating Radius up a bit pushing down to 0.50/0.51 ? Surprised we haven't seen a bit of a bounce and rally yet off 0.5.

yeah definitely a good buy at the moment .52

[kiwimalayalee]

Radius Care Results Announcement on the 29th... hopefully positive...

[winner69]

yeah definitely a good buy at the moment .52

I’d be interested in mid 30’s

[ralph]

Radius Care Results Announcement on the 29th... hopefully positive...
I am sure it will be Kiwi ,its not a plexure !!

[kiwimalayalee]

Why would you say its not a plexure...??
I don't get it...

[ralph]

Why would you say its not a plexure...??
I don't get it...
Well they both had a share placement offer a while ago, approx the same time & plexure has bombed unexpectedly to some, now the reasons for that are dyor !! and it will be apparent If not send me a pm & I will explain in more detail.

[kiwimalayalee]

Done Ralph... :)

[Maxtrade]

Done Ralph... :)

Report was pretty good, all things considered with the Covid markets. The SP declined today, probably more an overall market decline due to fear of new covid strains. If it wasn't for that maybe we would have seen SP rise after todays update.

[winner69]

After looking through the reports etc I’m still sticking to my view that I might get interested in buying when share price is 33 cents

In spite of all the positive words blah blah blah I can’t see how RAD can trade on multiples like RYM/SUM do.

[ralph]

Report was pretty good, all things considered with the Covid markets. The SP declined today, probably more an overall market decline due to fear of new covid strains. If it wasn't for that maybe we would have seen SP rise after todays update.

Omnivariant is causing a lot of panic in a lot country's & stocks this morning ,its here to stay scary as it may seem .Report pretty much as expected good work Radius.

[kiwimalayalee]

Same feelings here as well...
Hope O stays out of NZ...

[Maxtrade]

Very low volumes. Looks like 2 or 3 folk need their money the last few days pushing SP sub 0.50. No real sense of urgency to buy with current media news. Therefore a bit of downwards pressure on SP by those few who need their cash. But no real volume selling at all, so not indicative of a downtrending SP. Basically just meandering sideways. Buyers will likely re-enter when looks like SP is rallying back up towards previous Cap Raise price.

[winner69]

Very low volumes. Looks like 2 or 3 folk need their money the last few days pushing SP sub 0.50. No real sense of urgency to buy with current media news. Therefore a bit of downwards pressure on SP by those few who need their cash. But no real volume selling at all, so not indicative of a downtrending SP. Basically just meandering sideways. Buyers will likely re-enter when looks like SP is rallying back up towards previous Cap Raise price.

Wouldn’t want a punter to put a sell of 10,000 at market would you…could go to low 40’s pretty quick

I’m looking for ‘fair value’ in low 30’s

[justakiwi]

If the local Radius RV is anything to go by, I wouldn't touch them with a 40 foot barge pole.

[winner69]

RAD been listed for a year now.

I thought they were taking the mickey out of the market when they set a listing price of 80 cents

And then no existing shareholders sold any shares until it had been bid up to over $1.60 ….but finally sold some to a few ‘smart’ investors …..some even bought at $1.82 started …..before closing opening day at $1.75 ……pure speculation …….that’s wow stuff

The enthusiasm didn’t last long and the shares fell back to the 80 cents to $1 range …..still outrageously over priced

They wanted some extra cash so seduced punters with an offer of shares at 52 cents …..a price RAD obviously thought was not too outrageous …. the 52 cents (underwritten at 50 cents) was so ‘cheap’ investors couldn’t get enough ……another wow event.

Been downhill the last month as reality hits home …close last week 47.5 cents …on its way to sub 40 cents I reckon

I might get interested in low 30’s

Listing has achieved one thing for Radius ….they managed to achieve a $50m capital raise …. thats what markets are for …..and no doubt the insiders now know what they are worth on paper …..but other investors I suppose there are a few disappointed ones.

[Maxtrade]

Would be an interesting experiment for someone to try putting a sell order in for 10,000. Would be nice to know in advance and be ready to place a buy order right away. So let us know in advance if you plan to ;) But I would say the SP would very quickly rally back up off a short dip to 0.40 straight back up to market open 0.48. Doesn't appear to be any volume selling at 0.48 so doubt would be many sellers who would drop sell orders down that low. In turn buy orders would quickly surmount back up to where it has currently been trading. Very hopeful if looking for an entry in the 0.3's, 0.4's will likely be best bet before any rally in 2022 back up above 0.52 Cap Raise.

[winner69]

Would be an interesting experiment for someone to try putting a sell order in for 10,000. Would be nice to know in advance and be ready to place a buy order right away. So let us know in advance if you plan to ;) But I would say the SP would very quickly rally back up off a short dip to 0.40 straight back up to market open 0.48. Doesn't appear to be any volume selling at 0.48 so doubt would be many sellers who would drop sell orders down that low. In turn buy orders would quickly surmount back up to where it has currently been trading. Very hopeful if looking for an entry in the 0.3's, 0.4's will likely be best bet before any rally in 2022 back up above 0.52 Cap Raise.

You seem to put a heck of important on that 52 cents last cap price ..just curious why.

[Sparky669]

RAD been listed for a year now.

I thought they were taking the mickey out of the market when they set a listing price of 80 cents

And then no existing shareholders sold any shares until it had been bid up to over $1.60 ….but finally sold some to a few ‘smart’ investors …..some even bought at $1.82 started …..before closing opening day at $1.75 ……pure speculation …….that’s wow stuff

The enthusiasm didn’t last long and the shares fell back to the 80 cents to $1 range …..still outrageously over priced

They wanted some extra cash so seduced punters with an offer of shares at 52 cents …..a price RAD obviously thought was not too outrageous …. the 52 cents (underwritten at 50 cents) was so ‘cheap’ investors couldn’t get enough ……another wow event.

Been downhill the last month as reality hits home …close last week 47.5 cents …on its way to sub 40 cents I reckon

I might get interested in low 30’s

Listing has achieved one thing for Radius ….they managed to achieve a $50m capital raise …. thats what markets are for …..and no doubt the insiders now know what they are worth on paper …..but other investors I suppose there are a few disappointed ones.

I was one of the few disappointed ones. NZX 101 from Rad---SP does not raise because of those meme buyers and sellers, it reflects the enterprise's current capability and strategy for future growth. The SP was helly cheaper than other rest home companies but it should never be the main incentive for an investor to buy--it was cheap for a reason.

[winner69]

I was one of the few disappointed ones. NZX 101 from Rad---SP does not raise because of those meme buyers and sellers, it reflects the enterprise's current capability and strategy for future growth. The SP was helly cheaper than other rest home companies but it should never be the main incentive for an investor to buy--it was cheap for a reason.

Even now its still not cheap

If its any consolation everybody who has bought since listing and still holding are under water ..... share price at new all time low

No doubt some punters have traded profitably though

[Maxtrade]

Since SP has been lower than 0.52 the relative volume sales have been very low. Indicators showing there has not been strong selling pressure at all below this level. Even amongst Omicron declines, and general stock markets being considerably lower. Slow grind, low vol has been squeezing SP to where it currently is, curve flattening. Even at 0.52 only $88k sitting on market. A lot of investors who bought in at 0.52 seem happy to ride the wave out and not feel pressured to sell off, in turn likely SP will find its dip, flatten, followed by uptrend rally over CR.
Aged care, retirement villages are still a solid option for investors, pleanty more of us boomers yet to go on the waiting lists. Growth in this sector in NZ and AUS still yet to peak.

Watch for entry and volumes if SP gets pressured down to 0.40. Buy orders will be triggered. Will be followed by a quick bounce and influx of bids, increased traded volume, as pushes back up from there for a pause back around cap raise price 0.52-0.55.

Might get to see how it plays out today/tomorrow with current on market low bid volumes, might see the squeeze down to 0.40 from shaky hand sellers. Will be keenly monitoring and looking for entry point.

[winner69]

Since SP has been lower than 0.52 the relative volume sales have been very low. Indicators showing there has not been strong selling pressure at all below this level. Even amongst Omicron declines, and general stock markets being considerably lower. Slow grind, low vol has been squeezing SP to where it currently is, curve flattening. Even at 0.52 only $88k sitting on market. A lot of investors who bought in at 0.52 seem happy to ride the wave out and not feel pressured to sell off, in turn likely SP will find its dip, flatten, followed by uptrend rally over CR.
Aged care, retirement villages are still a solid option for investors, pleanty more of us boomers yet to go on the waiting lists. Growth in this sector in NZ and AUS still yet to peak.


Interesting you mention riding the wave out - seeing Wave Rider is biggest shareholder

I see Wave Rider didn't buy any new shares in the cap raise and his holding went from 54% to 35%

I'm still waiting for low 30's ..... hoping some punter might dump 10,000 or 20,000 at market price to speed up the process ....but if it got to low 30's might be best to wait until its in the 20's

[Maxtrade]

Interesting you mention riding the wave out - seeing Wave Rider is biggest shareholder

I see Wave Rider didn't buy any new shares in the cap raise and his holding went from 54% to 35%

I'm still waiting for low 30's ..... hoping some punter might dump 10,000 or 20,000 at market price to speed up the process ....but if it got to low 30's might be best to wait until its in the 20's

Quite interested here to see if 0.43 sells through (with no bids down to 0.33) where the bottom will form. A good true indicator on where lower end trough support forms. Then a base would be set which could in turn lead to trend change and a rally in SP. We won't be the only ones monitoring for this lower end entry. Probably need to be Johnny on the spot as many punters probably sitting on the sidelines for this as well. JTH are you monitoring? Is today the day, only ~7000 shares currently to clear the way. Could see some swing action pretty soon.

[winner69]

jez - close 43.5 ....hmmm

[Maxtrade]

jez - close 43.5 ....hmmm

Looking tempting art these levels. Seems like a bit of support starting to kick into bids now, can it go any lower though? It's near impossible to pick a bottom entirely, close enough is sometimes good enough. It's dropped 20% in less than a month, oversold territory, maybe investors ready to call it and buy back in. Lets see where it closes week end and might help answer that question

[ralph]

Wow take a week off and a feeding frenzy develops ,Time for the reef fish to get the left overs .

[kiwimalayalee]

Anyone willing to sell down to .41c
Am a bit hungry...

[winner69]

Well done maxtrade -- you stopped it falling below 42.5 with those astute buys

[ralph]

Anyone willing to sell down to .41c
Am a bit hungry...
Damn who bought this up maxtrade no food left now , for the reef fish damn sharks.

[winner69]

Damn who bought this up maxtrade no food left now , for the reef fish damn sharks.

there's always another day ... another opportunity for that really low buy


maxtrade can't keep the price falling forever

[Maxtrade]

there's always another day ... another opportunity for that really low buy


maxtrade can't keep the price falling forever

haha, it wasn't us actually, was ready to swoop in though if went any lower but it didn't. Thats fine though happy with our cost averaging and top up entry points. Again though really small volumes, no real money traded, no motivated sellers or need to sell, only various smaller buyers taking bites before the bigger fish start chomping up the chum. Pre xmas back into the .5's

[kiwimalayalee]

I see your messages have us and we in them..
Are you a group of traders...

[winner69]

Seems a few sellers hanging in there hoping like hell they'll get a higher price ....but inevitably they will face reality and accept what the market will give them ..... maybe as low as 40 cents doe some of them

[Maxtrade]

Seems a few sellers hanging in there hoping like hell they'll get a higher price ....but inevitably they will face reality and accept what the market will give them ..... maybe as low as 40 cents doe some of them

Or alternatively viewed, only 3 sellers currently sitting on market in the way restricting SP from naturally progressing back top to 0.50 level. Again no volume selling down today, or all week.

[ralph]

We are with you on that One maxtrade

[Maxtrade]

We are with you on that One maxtrade

Only a very small scale level approx $40,000 total sell to be removed for SP to notch back into 0.50 range. All likelihood this will occur pre-xmas, before markets then go stable with only low vol over Christmas New Years. Especially with positive Omicron news now starting to come out. It's not the end of the world (again) after all. Demand for retirement villages only to be stronger as more and more of us boomers deciding it's not a bad option. Hence Radius business model expansion in facilities, benefits and profits yet to be realised down the pipeline. 0.5 range will be looked back upon third quarter next year as a great entry point to have taken advantage of.

[kiwimalayalee]

Weak sell walls this morning upto .52

[kiwimalayalee]

Spoke too soon

[Maxtrade]

Spoke too soon

Patience, it's slowly working it's way back there. Slowly but surely. But you are right no selling pressure for over 2 weeks now (even amongst downtrending general markets).

Also there is only 3 sellers currently sitting at ex CR 0.52 level. Wouldn't be surprised if see 1 of those sell orders removed once 0.51 looks like breaking through.

Indicators positive.

[kiwimalayalee]

Well if that sums it up then 🥳

[ralph]

Well if that sums it up then 拾
Dividends as well Kiwi malayalee Rock on

[kiwimalayalee]

Pretty happy with the number of shares I have, haven't sold a single share since I bought them..
Grabbed a tonne with the dip and smiling since the start of the weeks rise up... hope that smile is everlasting...

[Balance]

Pretty happy with the number of shares I have, haven't sold a single share since I bought them..
Grabbed a tonne with the dip and smiling since the start of the weeks rise up... hope that smile is everlasting...

Will give you guys a hand when the 52c is breached on the way up to give it a push along.

[Muse]

I see your messages have us and we in them..
Are you a group of traders...

Yes I’ve asked that to Maxtrade too, which went ignored. unusual. Being very keen to allude to a group, then staying silent when asked, makes me wonder if just seeking an aura of authority. Whats up maxtrade ?

[winner69]

Will give you guys a hand when the 52c is breached on the way up to give it a push along.

That endorsment from Balance should give you heart maxtrade

[ralph]

Will give you guys a hand when the 52c is breached on the way up to give it a push along.
We will save a place at the table for you then Balance don't miss the appetizers' as the mains tastes much better afterwards :t_up:

[kiwimalayalee]

Dammit, i started with the desserts...
Hope there's some leftovers...

[winner69]

While you guys waiting for the mains and desserts I’m patiently waiting for the dregs in the low to mid 30’s (see I’ve raised my price)

[ralph]

While you guys waiting for the mains and desserts I’m patiently waiting for the dregs in the low to mid 30’s (see I’ve raised my price)
That's fair enough If you don't like fine dining ,we can get you a my sick bag if you prefer :D still very expensive.

[winner69]

I’m still looking for low to mid 30’s (still quite expensive even then)

Mightn’t have to wait to long

Each low is lower than previous low …real downtrend

[Arbroath]

I’m still looking for low to mid 30’s (still quite expensive even then)

Mightn’t have to wait to long

Each low is lower than previous low …real downtrend


I'm not sure its even worth 35 cents with no profit growth over 3-4 years. Maybe a PE of 10 in this low rate environment gives a value of 25 cents and a 6-7% yield...if they can actually get some runs on the board then maybe they are going to be worth 40-50 cents in a couple of years but I've just wasted an hour figuring out this is a dog.

[winner69]

Still on watchlist ….lowered target price to 129

Prob change my mind once it gets down to that price …and hope for less.

[kiwimalayalee]

And I grabbed a tonne load this week, quite a bargain...

[ralph]

Not getting hammered as much as others Oca & ryman etc and a good buy now for sure

[kiwimalayalee]

Luckily this is a basket I'd like to leave around long term... filling it up while on dips only... till then I'll just set aside and top up reserves...

[Snoopy]

I’m still looking for low to mid 30’s (still quite expensive even then)

Mightn’t have to wait to long

Each low is lower than previous low …real downtrend

40c today! Looked at the chart and there must be some error? It looks like a cross section of Zoi Sadowski-Synnott's big air Olympic ski run has been substituted by mistake?

SNOOPY

[kiwimalayalee]

Sale time 🥳

[winner69]

Sale time 🥳

Admire your confidence

[kiwimalayalee]

😅 buy the dip and prepare for more...!!!

[winner69]

😅 buy the dip and prepare for more...!!!

...what a new bigger dip

[kiwimalayalee]

In case it does... ain't it how this works..??

[Arbroath]

I'm not sure its even worth 35 cents with no profit growth over 3-4 years. Maybe a PE of 10 in this low rate environment gives a value of 25 cents and a 6-7% yield...if they can actually get some runs on the board then maybe they are going to be worth 40-50 cents in a couple of years but I've just wasted an hour figuring out this is a dog.

Still on track for 25 cents but the idea of a low rate environment is now shifting also...

[kiwimalayalee]

Thanks to the faint hearted... grabbed a few tonnes...

[winner69]

New low today --- downtrend continues with lower lows --- no faint heartedness with this .... just a steady predictable grind down

Amazing this was 170 once and hung around a buck before they needed cash and had to beg at 52 cents

Never mind .... downtrend probably end in the 20's

[Maxtrade]

New low today --- downtrend continues with lower lows --- no faint heartedness with this .... just a steady predictable grind down

Amazing this was 170 once and hung around a buck before they needed cash and had to beg at 52 cents

Never mind .... downtrend probably end in the 20's

Any support backing that speculation, would be unlikely to head anywhere near those levels, maybe we check in 6 months to check your accuracy of assessment. Failing World war 3 that is. But the entire market will tank if WWIII actually ignites to any severe recourse.

[winner69]

Any support backing that speculation, would be unlikely to head anywhere near those levels, maybe we check in 6 months to check your accuracy of assessment. Failing World war 3 that is. But the entire market will tank if WWIII actually ignites to any severe recourse.

Book value 26 cents per share so trading at 1.5 times that

Even the likes of SUM aren’t valued that highly these days ……and ARV and OCA are below Book Value

So unless one thinks RAD is really fantastic it’s hard to see why it should be worth much more than 26 cents, if that

That’s my view for what’s it worth ….and the market seems to sendingbthe price down to those levels.

[winner69]

Radius Care announces acquisition of leased properties

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/389705


Talk of another capital raise ….hmmm ….last one not that much of an ‘investment’

[kiwimalayalee]

Radius Care appoints new Chief Financial Officer

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/390130

Must be a good news..??

[Maxtrade]

Charts and techs finally starting to show Rad may have hit its bottom end and is back on an upward trajectory currently. Got a bit of steady gruelling climbing bit by bit to do heading back to reach previous CR price. Not large sell volumes in the works to push up through once the train starts moving. Fact remains we have a rapidly ageing population and demand for Retirement villages etc will only grow. So the business model is still a sound investment. Many investors will likely soon jump back on more secure investments such as aged care (as the fizz has seemed to have maxed out on pumped up tech). Taking some of their profits and investing it in a company that we know there will be more and more demand for each year forth as our aged population % grows.

[kiwimalayalee]

Nice... I like these thoughts..!!
Just cause...

[kiwimalayalee]

A lot of shares being offloaded for anyone keen...

[kiwimalayalee]

No buyers..??

[winner69]

No buyers..??

You better step up then

[ralph]

To many bargains elsewhere at the moment ,cannot buy them all !!

[ralph]

Especially in this sector everything is plummeting .

[Sideshow Bob]

Down 78.86% since first listed (although have to take into account capital raise).

But still.....ouch! :mellow:

[kiwimalayalee]

I did... haven't shown up on the market yet...
At .10c

[kiwimalayalee]

Anyone reckon there would be a capital raise soon..??

[kiwimalayalee]

Well done Radius on the recent annual results..!!!!

[winner69]

Well done Radius on the recent annual results..!!!!

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RAD/392896/371782.pdf

Book Value 26 cents ....trading at 1.4 times that

There's nothing in that presentation that jumps out and says heck we deserved to be more highly rated (higher multiple) by the market than Ryman and Summerset ,,,,, and even Oceania and Arvida who trade below book value

I'll might become interested around 25 cents

[Maxtrade]

Well done Radius on the recent annual results..!!!!

Yes that's a very positive and upbeat report. We may well see SP rally out of stale mate where it has been sitting with next to no volume trading of recent times. A push back up to previous CR would be the most likely trend line to establish now.

Great news for Radius, especially during these recent times, done well. Time to dollar cost average and top up at these levels before breaks through resistance on next rally

[ralph]

:t_up:
Yes that's a very positive and upbeat report. We may well see SP rally out of stale mate where it has been sitting with next to no volume trading of recent times. A push back up to previous CR would be the most likely trend line to establish now.

Great news for Radius, especially during these recent times, done well. Time to dollar cost average and top up at these levels before breaks through resistance on next rally
Very Impressive results ,especially in these times much better than expected .
I like the new care suite product O R A & that the directors are looking to are looking to introduce a dividend reinvestment plan in the future A very rewarding future ahead

[kiwimalayalee]

Meaning they plan on buying their own shares..??

[Maxtrade]

Meaning they plan on buying their own shares..??

Would make sense to buy back own shares, it's in oversold territory, bargain price, forward projections positive, an ever growing demand. The thing would be though that there is not a lot of shares on market for sale, so if that were to be the case would very quickly push SP up higher.

[kiwimalayalee]

Meaning to say .36 was the all time LOW...!!!

[winner69]

Close 34 cents …new low …downtrend remains in place

Remains on watch list …will look more closely when under book value of 26 cents

Still rated (maybe even higher) than RYM and SUM ….. that’s some weird market mispricing..

[kiwimalayalee]

That's a drop... how much further...

[winner69]

That's a drop... how much further...

Who knows ...... but the signs are it will trend down to its book value of 26 cemts or less

[kiwimalayalee]

Lads it's dividend pay day..!!!
😀

[Maxtrade]

Close 34 cents …new low …downtrend remains in place

Remains on watch list …will look more closely when under book value of 26 cents

Still rated (maybe even higher) than RYM and SUM ….. that’s some weird market mispricing..

Unless the global markets crash another 20% (which is highly unlikely after having already crashed 20%.) RAD SP won't retrace to those levels. RAD is basically just trending with overall market movements currently. Once the fear of recession passes (as they all do) shares in retirement sector will bounce strongly. There will be more more demand Even with the 20% global markets current crash RAD SP is holding with very little volume movements at current levels. Good entry and top up point.

[kiwimalayalee]

.39 close...
Not many wanting to let go either...
Glad to see Radius in the top 3 gainers on NZX

[Maxtrade]

.39 close...
Not many wanting to let go either...
Glad to see Radius in the top 3 gainers on NZX

Yeah been extremely low volumes leaking SP down to where it currently is sitting. Nothing more than a few nervous small volume trades. There hasn't been any substantial sell off. Those with sizeable holdings are happy to sit with the virtue of patience knowing the retirement village has huge demean knocking on its doorstep over the next couple of coming years as baby boomers down size.

[winner69]

Brutal day for RAD on the bourse today -- down 10% to 35 (might close higher)

And volumes (significantly) above average as well

[kiwimalayalee]

Wonder why...??

[winner69]

Wonder why...??

Just trending down to realistic ‘fair value’ in mid 20’s

There will be up days and there will be down days ….but probably lots more down days

[justakiwi]

No idea, but they are not one I'll ever buy, based on my personal experience applying for a job (they lost my application so it was never processed), and the high number of "investigations" (some related to resident deaths), involving my local Radius facility. They do not have a good reputation down my way. Maybe awesome in other locations, but "one bad apple spoils the bunch."



Wonder why...??

[ralph]

No idea, but they are not one I'll ever buy, based on my personal experience applying for a job (they lost my application so it was never processed), and the high number of "investigations" (some related to resident deaths), involving my local Radius facility. They do not have a good reputation down my way. Maybe awesome in other locations, but "one bad apple spoils the bunch."

That's certainly the Opposite of what I have heard in Canterbury!! but that's gossip & rumor mongering etc for you .
Sorry you where unsuccessful in your application don't take it personally though

[winner69]

Big $4 million payday for CEO and CFO if share price $1.08 in three years time

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RAD/395538/374897.pdf

[ralph]

Big $4 million payday for CEO and CFO if share price $1.08 in three years time

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RAD/395538/374897.pdf
Well that's a bloody good Incentive to take the job seriously ,not that they need it of course

[Maxtrade]

Any further talk of another Cap Raise in the works?

[winner69]

Any further talk of another Cap Raise in the works?

what makes you think that maxtrade?

If they did need to I might get my 25 cent target

[kiwimalayalee]

Hope not... am not ready for another one yet..!!!

[kiwimalayalee]

Huge sell walls... why the block though...??
Either reduce the number of shares to sell or just sell them down anyway...

[winner69]

Radius getting bigger and bigger

Another village …Matamata Countryu Lodge for 17m

Sleeping giant?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RAD/397954/378012.pdf

[kiwimalayalee]

We just replaced all the aluminum joinery on that...

[ronaldson]

A quick look at the Lodge website indicates that the main building opened as a Maternity Hospital in 1924 and seems to have been completely refurbished when the property was originally acquired by the Main Family, owners since 1992. It says 28 2-bedroom villas, 8 of which are new, somewhat at odds with the announcement which says 40 units although that may include Assisted Living Apartments. Operates also as a Rest Home and Respite Centre with hospital level and day care facilities. I'm not clear about the adjoining parcels which are included in the transaction but presumably they encompass the future development potential.

[ronaldson]

duplicate deleted

[kiwimalayalee]

What a fall...

[FTG]

and look at the number of sellers lining up at the exit door...

[kiwimalayalee]

Matamata Country Lodge Transaction Unconditional, increase in asset...
But what does that do to the share price now..??

[Balance]

Matamata Country Lodge Transaction Unconditional, increase in asset...
But what does that do to the share price now..??

Whole sector is under pressure. Particularly as the sector does not offer yield support.

Going to take good results to turn sentiment around.

[winner69]

Share price below 30 cents

Probably heading to low / mid 20's reflecting a mre reasonable value relative to Book Value

[ronaldson]

Hard to understand NTA per share just now, after the UCG acquisitions in May and the Matamata Country Lodge settlement in September along with the share issue to the vendor that part funded the latter transaction.

Sign of sleepiness/lack of initiative when you look at the website and see that the blurb re the mix of leasehold and freehold properties has not been changed to adjust for these transactions.

[kiwimalayalee]

It's like someone doesn't want the SP going upwards... there's almost 140k shares blocking the way....

[kiwimalayalee]

Half yearly results to be announced soon in a couple of weeks... fingers crossed 🤞...

[winner69]

H123 Underlying NPAT down 18.8% on pcp

Book Value now 26.5 cents v 26.0 cents as at March22

Most highly rated retirement stock on NZX (based on Price/Book multiples)

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RAD/403030/384345.pdf

[ronaldson]

I thought the key commentary was " Excellent progress made in international nurse recruitment resulting in 120 nurses starting in early 2023 filling all current vacancies ". Imagine if this achievement is replicated elsewhere in the aged care sector!

Of course, it begs the question what impact upon ongoing profitability a further 120 salaries has.

[ralph]

I thought the key commentary was " Excellent progress made in international nurse recruitment resulting in 120 nurses starting in early 2023 filling all current vacancies ". Imagine if this achievement is replicated elsewhere in the aged care sector!

Of course, it begs the question what impact upon ongoing profitability a further 120 salaries has.

Ha I like your thinking sack them all & make the rest redundant saving money=more profit ,could catch on that philosophy for running a business thanks for that .
Anything else you would like to cut to Increase dividends heating possibly

[ronaldson]

Ralph - That isn't what I was advocating at all.

I was simply pointing out that if 120 nurses are required simply to fill current vacancies across the business (which is as a specialist care provider, rather than the usual RV operator although there are a small number of villas and ILU's) then at an average salary cost of, say, $70k each that is overhead of a further $8.4m pa. The NPAT for the most recent half year was $1.7m. So, unless there is a compensating revenue increase within the business as a consequence of their employment it will move to loss making.

The business has 1865 beds currently across 24 facilities. So these international nurses will need to be distributed across the country. The problem with providers like Radius is that the ratio of staff to beds needs to be much lower than is the case for other RV operators who offer independent living opportunity rather than focusing on care.

The only relief is that a 5.5% increase in the Government care subsidy kicked in on 1 September, although this is less than the rate of inflation. And it seems (although I haven't seen the announcement) that the Government has just approved some further contribution to enable nurses at aged care facilities to move to wage parity with nurses in the hospital sector.

[Balance]

Ralph - That isn't what I was advocating at all.



Actually, that’s exactly what you were advocating - the more nurses that Radius recruit, the lesser the company’s profitability so cut back the number of nurses.

Fact is that aged care operators are desperately short of staff and that has been holding back additional profitability.

[ralph]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/08/one-of-new-zealand-s-largest-rest-homes-shuts-due-to-nurse-shortage-warnings-more-closures-to-come.html

[winner69]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/08/one-of-new-zealand-s-largest-rest-homes-shuts-due-to-nurse-shortage-warnings-more-closures-to-come.html

You’d hope the local MP (who is a senior member of the government) would be able to step in and find a way out of the mess this rest home finds it in.

[kiwimalayalee]

My nose hurts, anyway just grabbed an awesome discount...
Anymore dips ya think..??
Must be players dumping after the dividend record date... or was it something else..??

[kiwimalayalee]

Anyone care to teach me what today's DRP strike price was for..???

[justakiwi]

That is the share price they use to allocate your shares if you have elected Dividend Reinvestment rather than to receive your dividends in cash.


Anyone care to teach me what today's DRP strike price was for..???

[winner69]

My nose hurts, anyway just grabbed an awesome discount...
Anymore dips ya think..??
Must be players dumping after the dividend record date... or was it something else..??

I’m waiting for about 20 cents

That’ll get you excited eh

[ronaldson]

I thought to say my DRP shares issued last week at 27.23cps are the first for any of my holdings for some time that beat the on-market price by a margin. A sign of the times considering there is usually a discount applied in calculating the DRP issue price.

Curiously, the consequent Capital Change Notice indicated that only 89,151 shares were issued under the DRP which seems a very small number given over 284m RAD shares are currently on issue.

[kiwimalayalee]

Where do you all have your shares in..??
Mine is in sharesies😀

[ronaldson]

"My" holdings are via a Family Trust, a Company, and in my personal name. I don't think Sharesies allow you to benefit from Dividend Reinvestment Plans as all holdings are in the name of Sharesies Nominees Limited, so all dividends are received in cash and allocated to your account? If I am correct the inability to use/benefit from a DRP is, in my opinion, a (minor) disadvantage of operating a Sharesies account rather than holding shares in your own name and using a broker to trade.

[kiwimalayalee]

Sharsies advised that they are introducing dividend reinvestment plans and auto-dividend reinvestment as part of their updates for the new year...

https://www.sharesies.nz/blog/all-that-was-new-in-2022?lid=fm1l63tkdsrz&utm_source=braze&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=recap

[winner69]

Radius share price lingering around 25 cents

Still most richly valued stock in the sector trading at about book value

If priced like others in sector share price would be below 20 cents (well below)

I reckon it’ll get down below 20 cents sometime

[kiwimalayalee]

I had a huge buy wall set up at .20c couple of weeks ago... but no one was bothered...
Think I'll have to set it up back again....
Our wait and see how things go...

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/412157

Highlights:
• Revenue of $146.3m, up 10% on the comparative period.
• Net Loss After Tax of ($2.1m), down from a profit $2.7m in FY22 due to property valuation movements and higher interest costs.
• Underlying EBITDA of $14.2m (2), 32% up on comparative period.
• Industry leading EBITDAR per bed of $19.9k (2) in line with the comparative period.
• AFFO of $4.0m2, down from $4.2m in the comparative period.
• Total Assets of $356.6m, up $66.5m from 31 March 2022.
• Occupancy at 93.3% at period end vs industry average of 86.1% (March 2023 quarter).
• Completion of a 24-bed extension at Thornleigh Park on budget.

[ronaldson]

No final dividend for FY23, $10.5m vendor loan to acquire Matamata Country Lodge to step up from 8% to 18% interest and repayable by 23 October 2023, a further $1m borrowed from a related party to Director Brian Cree also at 18% due 23 October 2023 and an "event" triggering an equity raise of not less than $30m by 31 July 2023 to repay existing banking facilities.

So where to now? I missed the call this morning with the CEO and CFO to discuss the results, so can someone clarify how it is?

[Rep]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/dying-rest-home-patient-attacked-by-fellow-patient-in-final-days-of-life/HNZON6O4VNCU3A4IFGUELZUZMM/

"A dementia patient wandered into the room of a dying man yelling “get him out of my f*****g bed”, while the man’s family desperately tried to call nearby staff.

The next day, the same patient returned and yelled at the unconscious man to wake up before punching a healthcare assistant and then grabbing at the man who was later found lying on the floor with blood on his head. He died several hours later.

The dead man’s family say he died without dignity and made an official complaint into his care at the Tauranga rest home.


Today the Aged Care Commissioner Carolyn Cooper concluded Radius Care, the operators of the home, provided “suboptimal care” by failing to adequately inform the man’s family of the issues, and failing to provide adequate staffing levels."

Radius launched an internal investigation into the repeated intrusions and the man’s death. It found over six shifts, key care assessments were not carried out to determine what level of care Mr A required.

A care plan also wasn’t adequately formed to deal with Mr M’s territorial behaviour. It also found staffing levels in the dementia unit were inadequate.

Mr A’s family told the commissioner he died without dignity. The family would have arrived at the home much earlier had they been informed of the final incident hours before Mr A’s death.

“In my view, there were deficiencies in the care provided to Mr A by multiple staff at Radius Althorp. These were systemic issues for which Radius Althorp bears responsibility,” Cooper found.

“The overall deficiencies in the end-of-life care provided to this man, the inadequate documentation and staffing levels at Radius Althorp, and the inadequate communication with the man’s family, demonstrate a pattern of suboptimal care and a lack of critical thinking from Radius Althorp staff members.”

She recommended Radius provide a written apology, detail efforts taken since its internal investigation, and conduct a random audit of end-of-life care plans over the previous six months.

The report says since the events, Radius Althorp has provided staff with further training and increased staffing levels.

[winner69]

Jeez …RAD share price 20.5 cents at moment

Getting closer to NTA of 17.3 cents

Relative to others in sector share price should be lower than this.

[ronaldson]

Annual report published today. Will be worth a careful read.

Doesn't seem I should have invested in this company when it raised capital, and see also #244 above not subsequently elucidated.

[dubya]

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/132438536/radius-care-is-selling-assets-to-repay-bank-after-debtfunded-expansion

[ronaldson]

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/132438536/radius-care-is-selling-assets-to-repay-bank-after-debtfunded-expansion

Yes, and what the article doesn't say, but which is disclosed in the Annual Report, is that the conditional sale of one property as a going concern, entered into only on 19 June 2023 and only possibly settling in September, is for $5.4m total purchase price BUT that the Group expects to incur a loss on disposal (including selling costs) of $1.4m.

This is company under severe short term (hopefully) financial stress and a capital raise under current conditions is not a realistic option. Selling down care homes is extremely difficult currently as the present conditional sale indicates. There is an increase in the daily subsidy rate paid by Government from 1 July but that will barely dent operating costs given the substantial wage increases which have occurred in a very staffing intensive activity.

Something needs to happen to resolve the present crisis. It isn't clear just now what that is. In an effort to provision for a better future the Company has evidently bitten off a bit more than it can chew in an unhelpful environment for the sector!

[winner69]

Share price sinks below 20 cents

Hopefully way forward out of the current financial ‘crisis’ will be known before AGM but irrespective of share price new capital needed.

Still trading above NTA of 17.3 cents so rated/valued as a SUM …hmmmm

Might get interested around 13 cents …depending on circumstances at time