Bcrx

[HCR20]

I've highlighted PAVM as a potential biomed play with good upside potential in this forum. Now I am introducing BCRX. They develop and produce novel 'orphan' drugs for rare but serious diseases. Recently, they achieved FDA and Japanese approval for Ordaleyo (EU coming soon). Factor D research is underway with phase two trials happening at the moment.

PAVM is a speculative and risky play but BCRX is more so. Despite this, with Ordaleyo sales coming online, I think that BCRX is around 50-60% undervalued. If the Factor D research comes through then who knows, BCRX could be worth $100 p share.

[HCR20]

Someone is buying a lot of $20 March calls. Hmm.

[HCR20]

Bcrx up around 30% over last few months. Looks like shorts are exiting. Looking forward to March 22nd.

[Ricky-bobby]

Have purchased a few of these to see what happens... looks interesting...

[HCR20]

Have purchased a few of these to see what happens... looks interesting...

Yeah I think pretty de-risked on basis of Orledeyo alone.

[HCR20]

Have purchased a few of these to see what happens... looks interesting...

Hope you are still in. Good earnings and good indications in regards to efficacy of Orledeyo in the real world. Share price jumped 20% today.

[Ricky-bobby]

Haha yep! Wish I purchased a few more now...

[HCR20]

Haha yep! Wish I purchased a few more now...

Yeah hindsight is 2020. Its a volitile stock and still risky, but less so now than when I started this thread. Analysts starting to price the stock higher too... $18-20.

I still think you'd only want a small % of your portfolio in this. Biomed is extraordinarily risky!

[HCR20]

Haha yep! Wish I purchased a few more now...

Still holding?

[Ricky-bobby]

Yep, just doubled down yesterday... you?

[HCR20]

Yep, just doubled down yesterday... you?

Yep still holding and buying little more when I can. Up 60% since Jan. I think Orledeyo fair value is 4 bill market cap so 25% upside still to come. Factor d trials later this year could see share price rocket, but I think Orledeyo success means the down side risk is minimal. Essentially, my plan is to hold and expect price to rise to around $20-24 p share with potential for $xxx if Factor d works.

Only material risk I can see is scientific fraud or some kind of Orledeyo catastrophe and the risk of that is small.

I watched the conference call from yesterday and I was really impressed with the research spokeswoman (top right of screen). Megan and Stonehouse seem a bit over confident, but you tend to get that from non-science types.

[audiav]

Enough to interest me so I’ve bought a few. Formulating oral versions of what are usually parenteral administered medications is pretty useful. Broad spectrum antiviral interesting though only parenteral so far in early trials. Just from what I’ve read on website.

[HCR20]

Bet revenue guidance by 100%.

[Ricky-bobby]

Turning out to be a nice little purchase… were u expecting a bit more a jump on price or this is already priced in?.

[HCR20]

Strange happenings with the cash raise pulled on same day as announced. Some say it was the CEOs attempt to thwart a hostile takeover.

I still think it is undervalued on Orledeyo alone. I intend to hold for a good while yet.

[Ricky-bobby]

What do U use to follow what’s going on over in the states? Is there a forum similar to share trader?..

[HCR20]

Stocktwits, twitter, and reddit.

[Ricky-bobby]

What do u make of the latest result?.. holding or flicking?..