ADA ;Adacel Technologies Ltd

[percy]

Adacel's business is Air Traffic Management,Simulation and Training Solutions.
76,472,221 shares on issue and at 93 cents their market capitalisation is $71,119,166.
Today's interim result was excellent and their outlook is strong.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02343226-3A561638?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

[RupertBear]

Adacel's business is Air Traffic Management,Simulation and Training Solutions.
76,472,221 shares on issue and at 93 cents their market capitalisation is $71,119,166.
Today's interim result was excellent and their outlook is strong.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02343226-3A561638?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

thanks for sharing Percy

[NZSilver]

An old friend, I bought in 2015 for 1.83 and sold in 2016 for 3.06 & 3.24. I haven't followed to much since then but I did check in on occasions - downgrades/legal issues. Things got a bit mucky for a while. Back in at the start of the month at 91c. HY results were tidy, share buy back up to 95c will keep a cap on downward risk, PE for this year of 10. New management, growing ARR. Once the market begins to trust the company again this could easily trade on a PE of 20 so $1.80 to $2.00 shareprice. Currently in trading halt, all going well another positive announcement..

[percy]

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/ada.asx-3A562390/

Interesting the above announcement was deemed not price sensitive,therefore there was no need for a trading halt.
The announcement does not give a value of the new contract.
My guess is it is significant, otherwise ADA would not have thought it best to have a trading halt.
What is pleasing is ADA have plenty of work on, and have landed another good contract.

[NZSilver]

I believe I read in one of the following announcements it was mistakenly marked price sensitive. In the scheme of things not a big issue either way. This is trading on very undemanding multiples and is growing eps under new management - simply have to hold until it builds a track record moves higher.

[percy]

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02365251-3A565563?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

[percy]

Another good contract win.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02387197-3A569290?
access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

[NZSilver]

Another good contract win.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02387197-3A569290?
access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4 (https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02387197-3A569290?<br />access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4)

Nice little contract and still trading on very low multiples, seems mister market has very little trust in this one after its historical issues. Share buy back continues and yield is 5%, really is just a waiting game here for it to be re-priced. I think results and/or an institution getting on board will get things moving.

[NZSilver]

Good strength recently - are we finally getting the re-rate this deserves.... I believe the results will be very solid and the div will push the yield +5% �� (what's did Steve Flemming the poster who found all those gems use to say... Something like share price follows eps growth) I miss that's guys profitable microcaps

[percy]

Yes you bring back fond memories of him.Think you have the quote right.
I am sure Bell Potter have a target price of $1.25 for ADA.
Next result should be very positive,and I too am enjoying the recent share price strength..

[DarkHorse]

Good strength recently - are we finally getting the re-rate this deserves.... I believe the results will be very solid and the div will push the yield +5% �� (what's did Steve Flemming the poster who found all those gems use to say... Something like share price follows eps growth) I miss that's guys profitable microcaps

Check out monthly reports at dmx.com.au for some ideas with an uncanny similarity :)

[nztx]

Check out monthly reports at dmx.com.au for some ideas with an uncanny similarity :)


that domain looks like it's parked up & for sale with searches etc

[percy]

Try www.dmxam.com.au

[NZSilver]

Check out monthly reports at dmx.com.au for some ideas with an uncanny similarity :)

Yes I have been invested in DMX since 2016, Steves pretty dam good at finding deep value.

[NZSilver]

Check out monthly reports at dmx.com.au for some ideas with an uncanny similarity :)

Yes I have been invested in DMX since 2016, Steves pretty dam good at finding deep value.

[percy]

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02406258-3A572625?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

That's incredible.

[NZSilver]

When patience pays off

[percy]

Another new contract.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02435041-3A578103?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

[NZSilver]

I think this morning chairman's address gives a good snippet of where this company has come and where it is heading

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02453089-3A581265?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

[percy]

Another good contract.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02454526-3A581530?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

[NZSilver]

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02454526-3A581530?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Nice��

[NZSilver]

Wilson asset management went substantial yesterday, 5%, this is probably why there has been strange price action (dare I say manipulation).

Pretty hard to get 5% holding in a stock such as this when thorny holds 32% and and top 20 hold 63% of shares on issue according to last annual report.

[percy]

Wilson asset management went substantial yesterday, 5%, this is probably why there has been strange price action (dare I say manipulation).

Pretty hard to get 5% holding in a stock such as this when thorny holds 32% and and top 20 hold 63% of shares on issue according to last annual report.

Pleasing seeing they bought a great number at prices a lot higher than the current share price.
Date of Change Persons whose relevant interest changed Nature of Change
Consideration given in
relation to change (9)
Number of Securities
affected
Class of Securities
affected
Persons votes
affected
12-Aug-21 WAM Microcap Limited On Market Purchase (1,353,249.40) 1,008,751 Ordinary Shares 1,008,751
13-Aug-21 WAM Microcap Limited On Market Purchase (307,352.81) 232,671 Ordinary Shares 232,671
16-Aug-21 WAM Microcap Limited On Market Purchase (94,437.47) 73,935 Ordinary Shares 73,935
17-Aug-21 WAM Microcap Limited On Market Purchase (63,861.75) 49,138 Ordinary Shares 49,138
24-Aug-21 WAM Microcap Limited On Market Purchase (137,616.70) 100,000 Ordinary Shares 100,000
30-Aug-21 WAM Microcap Limited On Market Sale 30,362.03 23,552 Ordinary Shares 23,552
21-Sep-21 WAM Microcap Limited On Market Purchase (46,876.81) 37,876 Ordinary Shares 37,876
29-Nov-21 WAM Microcap Limited On Market Purchase (54,297.70) 50,591 Ordinary Shares 50,591
30-Nov-21 WAM Microcap Limited On Market Purchase (14,857.37) 13,724 Ordinary Shares 13,724
01-Dec-21 WAM Microcap Limited On Market Purchase (11,035.13) 10,255 Ordinary Shares

[percy]

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02508058-3A591367?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

[NZSilver]

From a post i put on HC

Yep this is one to just sit and wait, it has come back of its highs but this second buy back is a very astute move as will it increase div and EPS everything else being equal, while also keeping a floor on the share price. As long as the contracts keep coming in there is no reason to worry. Dividend is there to keep you holding while we wait for the share price to increase. When this does go it could move upward in big chunks as liquidity is lower and reducing at every buy back announcement.

[percy]

From a post i put on HC

Yep this is one to just sit and wait, it has come back of its highs but this second buy back is a very astute move as will it increase div and EPS everything else being equal, while also keeping a floor on the share price. As long as the contracts keep coming in there is no reason to worry. Dividend is there to keep you holding while we wait for the share price to increase. When this does go it could move upward in big chunks as liquidity is lower and reducing at every buy back announcement.




Agree.......................................

[DarkHorse]

I've just run the ruler over ADA for the first time.

Valuation is certainly attractive - low PE plus significant cash balance and low average capex requirements compared to depreciation/amortisation.
Allowing for dividend, PEG is less than 1 on 2023 and 2024 forecasts (one broker only).
The services division has significant recurring revenue.

On the other hand:
Risk: Services division has significant customer concentration (3 dominate) and the Systems division has lumpy revenue and competitive tenders can lead to losses from cost underestimates (happened a few years ago, although new management seem smarter and more prudent)
(Risk to earnings only. Capital light, balance sheet is strong and cashflow solid)

Long-term Growth: Services, which provides 75% of revenue and all the recurring revenue, seems to be quite a mature industry with limited runway. Systems seems cyclical.

I'd love to know how you guys see their long-term growth prospects in the sector.

[NZSilver]

So so result, steady as she goes but slightly below last year. Systems rev (which is lumpy) was down approx 3 million. Positives are their new virtual air traffic control segment could provide good growth into the future. Outlook statement on page 13 is pretty upbeat. Good dividend once again.

Note in presentation it sounds like they are chasing a couple of big projects 100m+ (not sure what part they would play in this, I suspect a small percentage and multiyear) - potentially remote type virtual towers may be the future of air traffic control.

[NZSilver]

59 million USD contract has just been announced, huge!!! Re-rate coming

[percy]

59 million USD contract has just been announced, huge!!! Re-rate coming

That is a huge win,as their market cap is only $50mil..
Pity I no longer hold.

[NZSilver]

Yeah nearly 95 mil aud at current exchange rate

[NZSilver]

MAM microequities asset management have become substantial holders

[NZSilver]

Back up to 80c, holding through the cycle hasn't been much fun but looks like there will be a good few years ahead.

[NZSilver]

Another 10% sp appreciation today... Maybe there is news coming on the further 100m worth of contracts. They did mention it at the agm.

[NZSilver]

Oh dear adacel

Result out and the market didn't like it. After 2 months of good sp appreciation it dropped 25% after result release from 90c to 65c.

Ramping up for big contracts and guiding EBITDA of $6-8mil USD fy2025, which will be a big turnaround - only problem is management has over promisd and under delivered in the the past... So the market is taking this forecast with a large grain of salt

Time will tell but I'll be sitting on this one for at least another 12 months while we wait for cyclical up turn with the 100mil USD of contracts they have in the bag.