Bargains during lockdown, what's on your shopping list ?

[Beagle]

So...what to many has felt like the inevitable has finally happened and we have community transmission of the Delta variant.

Go hard and go early, means we are in a level 4 hard lockdown in the Auckland and Coromandel regions, initially for 7 days and for the rest of the country, initially 3 days.

Some business support is said to be forthcoming, I haven't heard the detail yet.

Already we saw some effect on NZX shares today.

Questions presenting.

1. Can we beat the Delta variant back to buy us more time for more widespread vaccinations ?

2. Are these initial lockdown's likely to be extended ?

3. Should I be buying, selling or simply playing possum in the headlights ?

4. If I am buying or selling what is vulnerable to further pullback and why and what should I be looking to buy and when ?

Let the debate begin...please keep it civil and constructive, I know these are emotive times but can we try and do what Cindy always says and be kind to one another ?

Two very early initial thoughts to kick off this debate.

I am on record as saying KPG is directly in the firing line of another Covid outbreak, so I see potential for further meaningful downside there and I may target a reentry significantly below today's closing price, if it gets to a level I find attractive in due course.

Stating the obvious but I think this Delta variant will be much harder to beat than earlier variants so the possibility of an extended national lockdown is probably pretty high.

[Playa]

Great questions Beagle, perhaps too early to be rushing out buying just yet, but if history is anything to go by then the aged care sector had some great specials last time, perhaps a top up of some OCA in a few days time

[fungus pudding]

Great questions Beagle, perhaps too early to be rushing out buying just yet, but if history is anything to go by then the aged care sector had some great specials last time, perhaps a top up of some OCA in a few days time

Toilet paper will be on most lists.

[Beagle]

Toilet paper will be on most lists.

Been there done that already ;)

[traineeinvestor]

Without wishing to be any more difficult than usual, any buying or selling requires a view to be taken on the first two questions in Percy's list: whether and how far delta and any other variants spread through New Zealand and whether the government continues to pursue the elimination strategy (or, alternatively, for how long). Quite frankly, I'm surprised it has taken this long but that's a separate discussion.

At the moment, my instinct is to do nothing with my own NZ portfolio (which comprises of companies I either held through the 2020 covid slump or purchased when the market was down/recovering) unless/until I believe that lockdowns are likely to be prolonged and/or ongoing.

The two sectors I would avoid unless prices drop by a lot are (and maybe even then) are (i) tourism and (ii) retail focused property. In the case of the former, my view is that there is zero chance of a Trans-Tasman bubble being resurrected now that Australia (except WA) has shifted from an "elimination" to "living with covid" strategy which, combined with a halt on domestic travel of uncertain duration, does not bode well for Air NZ and AIA. Percy has already mentioned KPG was far as the latter is concerned.

On the buy side, I'm happy to sit on the sidelines and see if any bargains emerge.

[hogie]

Cash is king!

A bit of a shakeup is imminent ... Mr Orr. may have an excuse to reconsider his rates announcement tomorrow, or will he?
I think the NZX may be in for a painful time of volatility at least for the next little while!

[Zaphod]

Cash is king!

Depends how much they print. How do I place an order in with the RB?

[value_investor]

I'm not sure if its best to wait until we have more information about case numbers before jumping in to buy stocks tomorrow. With the delta, we could easily see a long drawn out lockdown or a short 1 week in and out. Still early to say.

With that being said, I'm definitely looking at KPG trading at a discount of NTA and could come closer to $1.00. I'd back the truck up for it at that price. I don't see the retirement villages being affected to hard by this lockdown unless delta hits the villages. I'd be into OCA if that's the case, already feel as though they are trading lower than they should and would look at this one closer. I believe OCA is a bit earlier than its peers but its got a bigger run up than a SUM or RYM. I also hold a lot of OCA so it would have to come down a bit for me to jump back into it.

HLG is another one I could see on my radar if it keeps falling. I like it as a dividend play in the early $6 range if it comes to fruition. Having read their last report, and the rise and rise of online shopping. Lockdowns are still a huge factor to a retail business but we've seen this doesn't grind the business to a complete halt.

Not sure where we are headed in the medium term this time however, I have more gun powder this time around. There hasn't been many bargains lately. I've been buying KPG on its way up and now on its way down to it becoming so prominent in my portfolio to the point its overweighted. It just represents good value to me at the current prices. Other stocks would have to be much more discounted for me to even think about getting into them at this point.

[Beagle]

Without wishing to be any more difficult than usual, any buying or selling requires a view to be taken on the first two questions in Percy's list: whether and how far delta and any other variants spread through New Zealand and whether the government continues to pursue the elimination strategy (or, alternatively, for how long). Quite frankly, I'm surprised it has taken this long but that's a separate discussion.

At the moment, my instinct is to do nothing with my own NZ portfolio (which comprises of companies I either held through the 2020 covid slump or purchased when the market was down/recovering) unless/until I believe that lockdowns are likely to be prolonged and/or ongoing.

The two sectors I would avoid unless prices drop by a lot are (and maybe even then) are (i) tourism and (ii) retail focused property. In the case of the former, my view is that there is zero chance of a Trans-Tasman bubble being resurrected now that Australia (except WA) has shifted from an "elimination" to "living with covid" strategy which, combined with a halt on domestic travel of uncertain duration, does not bode well for Air NZ and AIA. Percy has already mentioned KPG was far as the latter is concerned.

On the buy side, I'm happy to sit on the sidelines and see if any bargains emerge.

Well said but Percy hasn't morphed into a Beagle ;)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Collapse of the NZD in past few hours has provided a nice boost to the value of our overseas holdings, might consider moving a little into some bargain prices on NZ retail names. Very pleased to see the rapid and heavy level 4 lockdown, which ensures this is going to be a relatively short in duration event (28 days - 2 transmission cycles - seems like a worst case scenario).

[tommy_d]

So...what to many has felt like the inevitable has finally happened and we have community transmission of the Delta variant.

.....

Stating the obvious but I think this Delta variant will be much harder to beat than earlier variants so the possibility of an extended national lockdown is probably pretty high.

I pulled the trigger and topped up my holdings of ARV and HGH yesterday, shame about the timing... I felt they were good enough value to buy yesterday, so I'll keep an eye on those two at least.

for bounce-chasing, I haven't looked yet to see what i think fair-value is, but i'm interested in watching the price response for NZX,

[traineeinvestor]

Well said but Percy hasn't morphed into a Beagle ;)

My apologies to both of you - that's what comes from posting while on a Zoom call. :eek2:

[Joshuatree]

I bought a vodka and a gin, looking forward to my holiday.

[flyinglizard]

I dumped ARV and MOV around 3pm. Sorry to see those two SP collapse. Going to buy EVO this or next week if the SP is right.

[Zaphod]

The two sectors I would avoid unless prices drop by a lot are (and maybe even then) are (i) tourism and (ii) retail focused property. In the case of the former, my view is that there is zero chance of a Trans-Tasman bubble being resurrected now that Australia (except WA) has shifted from an "elimination" to "living with covid" strategy which, combined with a halt on domestic travel of uncertain duration, does not bode well for Air NZ and AIA. Percy has already mentioned KPG was far as the latter is concerned.


You're right, and I think even once restrictions lift in the future, climate change initiatives are also likely to re-shape our tourism sector for decades to come.

The hospitality sector bounced back once lockdowns eased, but once borders open slightly, a permanent level 2 is likely to result causing a large swathe of those businesses fail.

Probably not worth the risk at the moment.

[Gunner]

What is the cost of lockdown per day? Can we not spend that money on speeding the vaccinations up? At what % of vaccinations of the population do we stop going into lockdown. There needs to be a figure as the cost benefit ratio changes. Covid cannot be eradicated forever.

[tommy_d]

What is the cost of lockdown per day? Can we not spend that money on speeding the vaccinations up? At what % of vaccinations of the population do we stop going into lockdown. There needs to be a figure as the cost benefit ratio changes. Covid cannot be eradicated forever.
limiting factor on vaccines the last week or so seems to simply getting around to booking them, or prepared to travel more than 1km to get them. Now that the supply limitation is addressed it's accelerating massively

That % vs lockdown question is interesting, heaps of speculation - 80%? 90?
Downside of delta and vaccine breakthrough plus asymptomatic transmission is that things really start to suck for those who have medical reasons not to get the vaccine...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

What is the cost of lockdown per day? Can we not spend that money on speeding the vaccinations up? At what % of vaccinations of the population do we stop going into lockdown. There needs to be a figure as the cost benefit ratio changes. Covid cannot be eradicated forever.

the answer to your question is no. No amount of money can speed up vaccine deployment (the limiting factor is supply from Pfizer - which is not solved by money), and the monetary impact from letting covid run rampant is far larger than a week or two of lockdown

[Beagle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7d1_mBBmOZg it never gets old lol

[Dlownz]

Not really sure if there will be big bargains like last time. Tomorrow morning the market may have a morning slump but I imagine it will recover by the end of the day.

[Waltzing]

The only way to stop these lock downs even when everyone is first generation vaccinated is your enforced scanning and that may be coming tomorrow..

The reason you have NZ wide Level 4 is the scanning levels.

Ive seen very little scanning at super markets in certain rural towns in central north island.

[Rawz]

My list would have EVO near the top. It's already been punished so badly from their most recent (disappointing) profit update and down another 4 cents today. Trading on something under a 9 P/E based on their forecasted ebitda FY22 numbers (current p/e 11).

Otherwise:

- MHJ under $0.80
- TRA under $4.00
- HGH under $1.90
- OCA under $1.35
- WHS under $3.35

I would be happy to buy buy buy at these prices.

Sadly I don't think we will get there.... Already the facebook share market pages are full of chatter of people excited at the buying opportunities. This very thread in itself shows peoples thinking that bargains are to be had. If everyone is cashed up ready for a bargain then I cant see a big selloff.

Don't think the likes of FPH, MFT, EBOS, FBU, SKL will give us any bargains thats for sure.

Enjoy the lockdown :)

[Waltzing]

"WHS under $3.35"

right .. well here's hoping but at that price MR B will be drawing down any bank facilities that are undrawn and re mortgage any properties...

drain all cash reserves and porn off any gold. Everyone else who has a investment portfolio will be doing the same..

result ... price wont move but go up just like GMT did recently.

Who doesnt run portfolios without cash reserves?

[Gunner]

the answer to your question is no. No amount of money can speed up vaccine deployment (the limiting factor is supply from Pfizer - which is not solved by money), and the monetary impact from letting covid run rampant is far larger than a week or two of lockdown

Anyone can get the vaccine from 1 September so that suggests there are enough vaccines in the country for everyone at the moment or very soon. Do you know the monetary impact of a lockdown? I agree we should go into lockdown now but there needs to be an established point where we do not. If 90% have the vaccine then the cost benefit is not worth it. We dont ban cars even though they kill hundreds a year.

[Waltzing]

This is a social minded government which means every life has value.

Not every life has A value.

Expect lockdowns even when everyone is vaccinated.

[Rawz]

Anyone can get the vaccine from 1 September so that suggests there are enough vaccines in the country for everyone at the moment or very soon. Do you know the monetary impact of a lockdown? I agree we should go into lockdown now but there needs to be an established point where we do not. If 90% have the vaccine then the cost benefit is not worth it. We dont ban cars even though they kill hundreds a year.

I agree Gunner. Get as many vaccinated as possible before Christmas then open the boarders to the world.

[777]

I agree Gunner. Get as many vaccinated as possible before Christmas then open the boarders to the world.

For those that are vaccinated.

[Gunner]

This is a social minded government which means every life has value.

Not every life has A value.

Expect lockdowns even when everyone is vaccinated.

That would be ridiculous. Covid is here to stay. Nz cant become a hermit country for ever. At some point life has to get back to normal, much like the UK is doing now.

20 years time are we still be going into lockdown?? When the rest of the world is busy getting on with their lives. It is not sustainable in any way imaginable.

[Curly]

Gibraltar 99% vaccinated and covid cases have increased from 1 a day to 25 a day. Similar trends in UK , Italy. Mass delusion out there

[Rawz]

Gibraltar 99% vaccinated and covid cases have increased from 1 a day to 25 a day. Similar trends in UK , Italy. Mass delusion out there

But hospitalization and death rates dropping for those that are vaccinated. I have a few friends in the UK that have had covid since getting 2 jabs and it knocks you yes, but just bed ridden. Not in hospital on a ventilator. Big difference

[Gunner]

But hospitalization and death rates dropping for those that are vaccinated. I have a few friends in the UK that have had covid since getting 2 jabs and it knocks you yes, but just bed ridden. Not in hospital on a ventilator. Big difference

The vaccine doesnt prevent covid, rather it reduces the severity of it and therefore less likely to be seriously I'll or die from it. Covid in the community is the new normal overseas and will be the same for NZ. Just a matter of time.

[Waltzing]

"knocks you" yes but if they get thousands in a specific geo graphic area it would over run health services but not ICU.

They might still do region specific level 2 and enforce scanning.

[Beagle]

Hopefully we can get back to the subject at hand tomorrow.

Beagle has been building a nice stash of cash and is fairly keen to deploy some but in no particular hurry.

[SPC]

Ultimately the Govt will have to let go of the current strategy for reasons mentioned, virus continually returning despite vaccinations and lockdowns killing business. But at present it works for the Adern Govt because it's the only thing in 4 years that has worked for them. Every other policy initiative or promise in the past 4 years has been a fail. The 'covid show' that keeps Adern in the media month after month is all they have and it make sense to keep playing this card through to the next election. But it won't run indefinitely.

[Dassets]

Orr cannot move now imo. If he was going to do a 50 he may think he can do 25. But the reality is tomorrow he does not have the information he needs to avert a poor outcome. He needs to understand whether this is a 1 month 2 month or more lockdown. Fx obviously suspecting that too having sold off.

[nztx]

Ultimately the Govt will have to let go of the current strategy for reasons mentioned, virus continually returning despite vaccinations and lockdowns killing business. But at present it works for the Adern Govt because it's the only thing in 4 years that has worked for them. Every other policy initiative or promise in the past 4 years has been a fail. The 'covid show' that keeps Adern in the media month after month is all they have and it make sense to keep playing this card through to the next election. But it won't run indefinitely.


indeed & they probably sorely know it, as does the Public who just happened to mark the grades down
on the most recent Report Sheet ..;)

Bad Boy Teacher / Minister Dripkins might have to get on his bike or all might get caned badly this time round
on all the well spun feel good propaganda, if it turns into shades of NSW on all the dribble and dabs
of incompetence.. No amount of dribble is likely to suffice in the face of a very angry & frustrated
Team of 5 million finding reason to heap wrath & blame on who they may consider are wholely blameworthy
and that's after all the kindness discounts are deducted on the effort .. ;)

As all know the borders are as leaky as a sieve on lax Vax Coverage, Shared Facilities, tardy wider Vax cover
(if that even helps) etc etc .. and the list goes on and on and on, even after two previous warnings ;)

[Waltzing]

"no particular hurry"

number of contacts looks large...

"no hurry" because if it explodes lockdowns will go for up to a month or more...

and that will hit the market.

[couta1]

Ultimately the Govt will have to let go of the current strategy for reasons mentioned, virus continually returning despite vaccinations and lockdowns killing business. But at present it works for the Adern Govt because it's the only thing in 4 years that has worked for them. Every other policy initiative or promise in the past 4 years has been a fail. The 'covid show' that keeps Adern in the media month after month is all they have and it make sense to keep playing this card through to the next election. But it won't run indefinitely. So true, what a complete sham this is, putting the whole country into level 4 and shutting down the whole South Island ski industry in its peak season, why not level 2? Bargains i couldn't give a toss about to be honest, im too p****d off to care about that right now.

[nztx]

"More than 168.7 million Americans, 51% of the population, were fully vaccinated as of Monday, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."

Where is NZ at right now ?

Should we be concerned ?

[Gunner]

You cant really compare us and America. They have no lockdowns, we do. NZ policy is zero covid no matter what. At some point the cost benefit shifts. I hope Jacinda is smart enough to know when.

[Panda-NZ-]

No real vaccine hesistency here either.

1k deaths per day in US from a now preventible illness.

[850man]

That would be ridiculous. Covid is here to stay. Nz cant become a hermit country for ever. At some point life has to get back to normal, much like the UK is doing now.

20 years time are we still be going into lockdown?? When the rest of the world is busy getting on with their lives. It is not sustainable in any way imaginable.
Lockdown is the only tool in the current regime's toolbox so that's what to expect for a long time to come.
Vaccination won't be complete this side of Xmas

[Gunner]

Lockdown is the only tool in the current regime's toolbox so that's what to expect for a long time to come.
Vaccination won't be complete this side of Xmas

Youd expect no lockdowns after xmas then? Why would a lockdown be suitable for NZ but not the UK with similar vaccine rates ie 80 to 90% after xmas.

[777]

Here is a good thread for your discussions on covid.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11704-Coronavirus&p=900876#post900876

[Leftfield]

Here is a good thread for your discussions on covid.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11704-Coronavirus&p=900876#post900876

Agree...... can we please keep Covid discussions off the NZX Trading thread. Please stick to Shares here.

[CatO'Tonic]

I work in industrial automation and can see a real benefit to the whole pandemic for companies producing remote access equipment for programming and tech support. I have access to clients via products which provide a secure encrypted VPN that usually doesnt require any firewall tinkering at the customer end. Cuts down on travel time too. Best one I can think of is Ewon, which are listed on the KOSDAQ. They're not a huge player but if you have access to S.Korean markets, might be worth a punt. I'm not holding.

[fungus pudding]

No real vaccine hesistency here either.

1k deaths per day in US from a now preventible illness.
No there isn't. Nothing like it.

[alokdhir]

ATM is going to be best bargain to go for IMHO

[Onion]

No there isn't. Nothing like it.

https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us

Not far from 1,000 per day:

August 16, 2021
964 Deaths
167 Daily Increase
20.95% Daily Change















(https://www.who.int/)

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I had day trade shorts on travel, retirement and retail yesterday. Will be looking to cover this morning and go long into panic selling.

Market doesn't care about covid. It cares about stimulus and liquidity. Look at the situation in Aussie with the ASX right at all time highs.

[Maverick]

I had day trade shorts on travel, retirement and retail yesterday. Will be looking to cover this morning and go long into panic selling.

Market doesn't care about covid. It cares about stimulus and liquidity. Look at the situation in Aussie with the ASX right at all time highs.
Im so with you Johnny, we've got a huge amount of examples and patterns now around the globe and particularly Aussy to have a solid idea how the markets and people will respond over time.
The very fact this thread is named "bargains during lockdown " ... not "OMG it's all over " ...is telling that we ALL now know the forthcoming govt lollie scramble and responses bodes well for equities and property.

first time around any investing was " very brave". This time it's more like "candy off a baby."

[RTM]

A string of pretty decent results today. And I suspect more to come.
Will be interesting to see what Mr Market thinks are appropriate stock prices against the COVID Lockdown issues.
My pick is we won't see the rapid drop that we saw last time, people will hope we can contain / control / eliminate again.
But if the data over the next week or so shows deterioration in the control. then the Market will drop more significantly.
As much as last time ? Probably not, perhaps people have learnt some lessons, more nervous people already gone from market ?
We'll see.

[850man]

weak hands selling evident today thus far, not huge volumes. Good for those with spare cash after a bargain, it's just timing when to sweep them up. I have none so unfortunately not in for a feed.

[flyinglizard]

Smart money may just wait for 1:00pm daily update from the govt till Friday (may need to watch Dow index as well). Not in a hurry to start shopping now.

[Beagle]

Too early to call this one but 5 cases already is a worrying indicator of what's to come. Plenty of stimulus is coming with the resurgence support and wage subsidy payments. Subject to qualifying criteria a one man band self employed person will be eligible for $1,900 resurgence support payment and $600 wage subsidy next week so that's $2,500 in the first week and $600 per week thereafter.

My early guesswork is they may have to wait at least 2 incubation cycles if they are trying to eliminate so a lockdown of 2 x 14 days could be where this is headed.

The situation in Australia with a strong market in the face of their Covid situation is interesting and perplexing and we're seeing a similar situation in many world markets. Why has our market gone nowhere this year when most other bourses have been strong ? I believe the answer is that the average forward PE of our market is nearly 35 (according to some research Winner recently shared with me), and many other markets are in the mid-late teens. Forward PE of the S&P 500 (an index which has doubled from the 23/3/20 Covid low) is 21 so many parts of our market are VERY expensive.

Plenty of scope for our market to (at best), continue to track sideways for at least the balance of 2021, in my opinion.

Bit early to start the bargain hunting is my sense. I am not hoping for this but (if and when we start getting some really ugly Covid numbers) that might be when fear raises it ugly head again. Who can forget the fear of 23 March last year...I doubt it will get anywhere near that bad but some ugly Covid numbers could be coming and elimination this time with Delta is by no means a foregone conclusion.

[RTM]

Agree...way to early to bargain hunt...nothing has dropped enough to pique my interest as yet.
And agree with respect to NZ Market...that's part of the reason why many are sitting on a fair amount of cash...hard to find the right companies to jump into at current valuations.



Too early to call this one but 5 cases already is a worrying indicator of what's to come. Plenty of stimulus is coming with the resurgence support and wage subsidy payments. Subject to qualifying criteria a one man band self employed person will be eligible for $1,900 resurgence support payment and $600 wage subsidy next week so that's $2,500 in the first week and $600 per week thereafter.

My early guesswork is they may have to wait at least 2 incubation cycles if they are trying to eliminate so a lockdown of 2 x 14 days could be where this is headed.

The situation in Australia with a strong market in the face of their Covid situation is interesting and perplexing and we're seeing a similar situation in many world markets. Why has our market gone nowhere this year when most other bourses have been strong ? I believe the answer is that the average forward PE of our market is nearly 35 (according to some research Winner recently shares with me and many other markets are in the mid-late teens.

Plenty of scope for our market to at best continue to track sideways for at least the balance of 2021, in my opinion.

Bit early to start the bargain hunting is my sense. I am not hoping for this but (if and when we start getting some really ugly Covid numbers) that might be when fear raises it ugly head again.

[Balance]

Too early to call this one but 5 cases already is a worrying indicator of what's to come. Plenty of stimulus is coming with the resurgence support and wage subsidy payments. Subject to qualifying criteria a one man band self employed person will be eligible for $1,900 resurgence support payment and $600 wage subsidy next week so that's $2,500 in the first week and $600 per week thereafter.

My early guesswork is they may have to wait at least 2 incubation cycles if they are trying to eliminate so a lockdown of 2 x 14 days could be where this is headed.

The situation in Australia with a strong market in the face of their Covid situation is interesting and perplexing and we're seeing a similar situation in many world markets. Why has our market gone nowhere this year when most other bourses have been strong ? I believe the answer is that the average forward PE of our market is nearly 35 (according to some research Winner recently shares with me and many other markets are in the mid-late teens.

Plenty of scope for our market to at best continue to track sideways for at least the balance of 2021, in my opinion.

Bit early to start the bargain hunting is my sense. I am not hoping for this but (if and when we start getting some really ugly Covid numbers) that might be when fear raises it ugly head again.

Yup - too early. This delta variant is a game changer - expect longer lockdowns.

The FEAR factor is only starting to kick in.

Real bargains are to be had only when PANIC sets in - and that will be when big covid cases start coming through and throughout the country, not just Auckland.

Next week could be the time.

Meanwhile, those who are selling are going to regret a month from now.

[allfromacell]

Happy to pickup some OCA this morning, not much else dropped much as expected. I think if you didn't get your orders in this morning you won't be getting any bargains this time round especially if the OCR is kept stable.

[RTM]

Happy to pickup some OCA this morning, not much else dropped much as expected. I think if you didn't get your orders in this morning you won't be getting any bargains this time round especially if the OCR is kept stable.

You must have high confidence in our ability to contain it. Sure hope you are right.

[allfromacell]

You must have high confidence in our ability to contain it. Sure hope you are right.

I'm fairly confident but I also figure long lockdowns just equals pent up demand and stimulus. The OCR will probably be kept down for longer and money will flow back into equities, we've seen it all before now.

Sure Delta is more contagious but we've also got 40% of the population with a dose in their arms. NZX is already back in the green for the day.

[Ggcc]

Smart money may just wait for 1:00pm daily update from the govt till Friday (may need to watch Dow index as well). Not in a hurry to start shopping now.

Good idea. Yeah I don't see anything of interest happening anytime in the next three days. Next week will be the time to buy or sell, when we have more clarity. I for one won't be doing either as I am no good at picking the bottom or the top lol

[Beagle]

I'm fairly confident but I also figure long lockdowns just equals pent up demand and stimulus. The OCR will probably be kept down for longer and money will flow back into equities, we've seen it all before now.

Sure Delta is more contagious but we've also got 40% of the population with a dose in their arms. NZX is already back in the green for the day.

I'm grateful to have one shot in my arm (done my head quite a lot of good not being so worried about the future), but objectively 40% is not going to do much good for the economy. 80% would but we're a fair way away from that. No bargains this morning so no bargain shopping from this old mutt, (yet).

[101nick101]

No action from me, surprised at the lack of movement on AIA & AIR. KPG actually went up today. Will wait until some actual bargains present themselves and keep cash in fist until they do.

[Ggcc]

No action from me, surprised at the lack of movement on AIA & AIR. KPG actually went up today. Will wait until some actual bargains present themselves and keep cash in fist until they do.
Personally I would stay clear of AIR. I can not for the life of me imagine, other than the government anyone keen to invest in AIR during a pandemic.

[Biscuit]

Yeah, where are those panic sellers! I don't think we are going to see any bargains this time around. Would pick up solid companies like MFT if there was a general sell off. Picked up some HLG this morning as I think that is under priced.

[Beagle]

Personally I would stay clear of AIR. I can not for the life of me imagine, other than the government anyone keen to invest in AIR during a pandemic.

Ripley's believe it or not, that's the #1 share Sharsies investors are buying. I'm not brave enough to get on their fakebook page and try and talk about the fundamental's. I cop more than enough flak on here from time to time lol

Its early days Biscuit....lets see how the Covid numbers track in the next two weeks...

[alokdhir]

OCA @ 1.38 was a Bargain surely ....how people say no bargains ...maybe too greedy !!:p

[ratkin]

Just buy EBOS and sleep peacefully. covid or no covid they do well

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I had day trade shorts on travel, retirement and retail yesterday. Will be looking to cover this morning and go long into panic selling.

Market doesn't care about covid. It cares about stimulus and liquidity. Look at the situation in Aussie with the ASX right at all time highs.

Like absolute clockwork. Covered the shorts just after open and took long day trade positions on HGH, WHS, SUM and RYM. Scaling out of these trades now (apart from RYM which hasn't run yet).

[Biscuit]

.......Its early days Biscuit....lets see how the Covid numbers track in the next two weeks...

I'm conflicted: I hope we get on top of covid quickly, but I also want some bargains as I have $400k sitting in a current account earning nothing. I don't think the market is going to react with a sell off now. People know lock-downs don't lead to financial Armageddon. No-one is going to panic. Any bargains are already here IMO.

[Beagle]

I'm conflicted: I hope we get on top of covid quickly, but I also want some bargains as I have $400k sitting in a current account earning nothing. I don't think the market is going to react with a sell off now. People know lock-downs don't lead to financial Armageddon. No-one is going to panic. Any bargains are already here IMO.

I know how you feel. Very early days....I like liquid, gives you lots of options and if you're wrong, hey that's no big deal as it means we got on top of this outbreak and we've bought more time to vaccinate the population and our existing shares haven't tanked.

[Waltzing]

"top of this outbreak"

casino, school, medical facility, church, cafes, petrol stations, more to come.....

people speeding across the country to other destinations ...

This could as you all know actually go on for a month at worst case ..

A district mayor not scanning and not even understanding the technology.

Buying ..

[101nick101]

Ripley's believe it or not, that's the #1 share Sharsies investors are buying. I'm not brave enough to get on their fakebook page and try and talk about the fundamental's. I cop more than enough flak on here from time to time lol

Its early days Biscuit....lets see how the Covid numbers track in the next two weeks...

Wait... You don't like a 131 P/E ratio? ;)

[101nick101]

I'm conflicted: I hope we get on top of covid quickly, but I also want some bargains as I have $400k sitting in a current account earning nothing. I don't think the market is going to react with a sell off now. People know lock-downs don't lead to financial Armageddon. No-one is going to panic. Any bargains are already here IMO.

Here I am with a growth portfolio of 20k and a dividend portfolio of 10k. I have a fair bit of catching up to do :t_up:

[winner69]

Bargain hunters already out in force after a rocky start

AIR up and so is HLG

Get in quick …don’t miss out

[Balance]

Bargain hunters already out in force after a rocky start

AIR up and so is HLG

Get in quick …don’t miss out

Looks like the fear is abating and panic may not eventuate?

[Beagle]

Here I am with a growth portfolio of 20k and a dividend portfolio of 10k. I have a fair bit of catching up to do :t_up:

I feel you deserve some encouragement because we all have to start somewhere and we all need encouragement from time to time. A few years ago I read a report that less than one in four Kiwi's could put their hands on $25,000 if they faced a crisis. That's not $25,000 in investable assets, that's $25,000 liquid resources from any source, revolving credit facilities with a bank, credit card company, wherever. Not demeaning anyone on Sharsies but I think the average balance there is just a few thousand dollars and good on them, they're making a start and trying to build financial resiliency into their lives.

I still remember the day when I was a young man when I didn't have $8 for a set of brake pads I desperately needed for my motorbike to get to University. I remember breaking down in tears, I remember it so well it could have been yesterday. I had no way to get that $8...it was so traumatic that I have blocked out how I ended up getting that money...I simply can't remember. I vowed never in my life to be that broke again. Its critical moments like those that absolutly galvanize one's determination to succeed. You've made a good start on building financial strength into your future. Keep it up.

Coutts me ol mate, you've done really well getting your head around a loss like that which would have absolutely broken some people, (the reason why so many jumped out of tall building windows in the 1987 sharemarket crash). Stay strong.

Bargains...we'll see. This cautious old mutt will hit the pause button, sit on his paws and play possum stuck in the headlights for a while.

[allfromacell]

OCR left on hold.. more stimulus on the way, lower kiwi dollar vastly offset by the hunt of income. Get your income stocks while you can, very cheap still.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

…
I believe the answer is that the average forward PE of our market is nearly 35 (according to some research Winner recently shared with me), and many other markets are in the mid-late teens.
…


do you have the data behind this calculation, because it sounds surprising. Although I suspect it might be a factor of F&P healthcare and A2M distorting things a lot. Without those two the PE ratio likely looks a lot different. Current NZX50 PE is 31x.

Also what are these international markets trading in the mid/late teens? That would also be interesting data.

[Waltzing]

mr B's thread asks "buying in a lockdown"

isnt WHS at sub 3.60 a good buy? Not base ment but a good buy?

in 6 months time or a year will 3.60 be viewed as a Bargain?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

mr B's thread asks "buying in a lockdown"

isnt WHS at sub 3.60 a good buy? Not base ment but a good buy?

in 6 months time or a year will 3.60 be viewed as a Bargain?

WHS was trading below $3.50 for 3 months (May-July) - so there isn’t a whole bunch of people waiting around to all of a sudden grab WHS at a sub-$3.60c “bargain” price.

yes it’s trading at a discount to what many consider a fair value, but it’s been that way for ages.

[oldtech]

Here I am with a growth portfolio of 20k and a dividend portfolio of 10k. I have a fair bit of catching up to do :t_up:


I feel you deserve some encouragement because we all have to start somewhere and we all need encouragement from time to time. A few years ago I read a report that less than one in four Kiwi's could put their hands on $25,000 if they faced a crisis. That's not $25,000 in investable assets, that's $25,000 liquid resources from any source, revolving credit facilities with a bank, credit card company, wherever. Not demeaning anyone on Sharsies but I think the average balance there is just a few thousand dollars and good on them, they're making a start and trying to build financial resiliency into their lives.

I still remember the day when I was a young man when I didn't have $8 for a set of brake pads I desperately needed for my motorbike to get to University. I remember breaking down in tears, I remember it so well it could have been yesterday. I had no way to get that $8...it was so traumatic that I have blocked out how I ended up getting that money...I simply can't remember. I vowed never in my life to be that broke again. Its critical moments like those that absolutly galvanize one's determination to succeed. You've made a good start on building financial strength into your future. Keep it up.

Coutts me ol mate, you've done really well getting your head around a loss like that which would have absolutely broken some people, (the reason why so many jumped out of tall building windows in the 1987 sharemarket crash). Stay strong.

Bargains...we'll see. This cautious old mutt will hit the pause button, sit on his paws and play possum stuck in the headlights for a while.

Well said Beagle. 101nick101, I think it's fair to say there are all sorts of investors on here, with portfolios both large and not-so-large (but they are still pretty large to their owners!) My portfolio is currently around $96,000 and it's taken me a little over four years to get there. You are already doing better than many other Kiwis, simply by virtue of the fact that you've started.

[winner69]

do you have the data behind this calculation, because it sounds surprising. Although I suspect it might be a factor of F&P healthcare and A2M distorting things a lot. Without those two the PE ratio likely looks a lot different. Current NZX50 PE is 31x.

Also what are these international markets trading in the mid/late teens? That would also be interesting data.

Below is from a recent preso From Harbour

[Panda-NZ-]

I feel you deserve some encouragement because we all have to start somewhere and we all need encouragement from time to time. A few years ago I read a report that less than one in four Kiwi's could put their hands on $25,000 if they faced a crisis. That's not $25,000 in investable assets, that's $25,000 liquid resources from any source, revolving credit facilities with a bank, credit card company, wherever. Not demeaning anyone on Sharsies but I think the average balance there is just a few thousand dollars and good on them, they're making a start and trying to build financial resiliency into their lives.


A shame we dismantled a proposal for a compulsory super scheme over politics, so now everyone relies on the govt for retirement.

Newbies should be aware what happens with the currency too.

[Waltzing]

"$3.50 for 3 months (May-July) "

april to oct last year 2.10

maybe not a discount , but looking forward 6 to 12 months..

as OCR heads back up at some stage and cash rebalances from bond proxies one has to look at prices going forward when allocating new cash to the market.

[fungus pudding]

"$3.50 for 3 months (May-July) "

april to oct last year 2.10

maybe not a discount , but looking forward 6 to 12 months..

as OCR heads back up at some stage and cash rebalances from bond proxies one has to look at prices going forward when allocating new cash to the market.




I suppose that means something to someone - maybe.

[Waltzing]

and just to add if and when the bond proxies lose their BPS yield advantage to the 10 yr yield

stocks that can increase their yield will be highly sort after as new cash enters the markets.

Whatch that 10 yr.

Of course if you believe that the 10 yr has no influence on the bond proxies market you could always buy ARG above 160.

[Beagle]

"$3.50 for 3 months (May-July) "

april to oct last year 2.10

maybe not a discount , but looking forward 6 to 12 months..

as OCR heads back up at some stage and cash rebalances from bond proxies one has to look at prices going forward when allocating new cash to the market.




Interesting comment by ex CEO of Walmart on CNBC this morning. In times of difficulty with inflation, increases in the cost of manufacture and especially shipping Walmart always gains market share due to its size and ability to negotiate bulk rates and deals which enables it to offer better value for longer. I suppose its the same for WHS here relative to the size of its competitors. As you suggest mate, WHS is no bargain compared to where it was 12 months ago but it could well be exactly that compared to where it might be 12 months from now.

[Waltzing]

"might be 12 months from now"

well its MR B who spotted it.

ARG was easy back in 2020 April.

WHS has the potential to increase it DIV Yield. Retail in US has dropped and services increased.

NZ market reporting season will be interesting.

EBO been a good buy for growth. EBO has announced their intention to keep that growth going and we are under weight on EBO and but have narrowed the gap on WHS.

P/E on the COMP PROP is high and yield spread will narrow when RBNZ finally takes the plunge.

Not today though.

WalMart E commerce expanding .. and raises FY earnings..

MR B glued to CNBC...

[101nick101]

WHS was trading below $3.50 for 3 months (May-July) - so there isn’t a whole bunch of people waiting around to all of a sudden grab WHS at a sub-$3.60c “bargain” price.

yes it’s trading at a discount to what many consider a fair value, but it’s been that way for ages.

I'm not bullish on the WHS. Costco entering the NZ market may rattle some cages and their competitive advantage of being cheaper is no longer the case with the rise of KMart here. Additionally they're now competing with online retailers who have similar margins and who can deliver very quickly (in a non Covid world).

[Biscuit]

I suppose that means something to someone - maybe.

His gift is poetry not clarity.

[Pablo]

KMD is on my shopping list once it gets down below 1.30, not the flavour of the month at present, but fundamentals are good for recovery , my analyst have them at target of 1.85 to 1.93.
Once Aus/Nz is vaccinated and let out to play, people will appreciate wilderness leisure and all the bits that go with it.

[Beagle]

1 store in N.Z. for Costco in 2022 with a subscription based model that might be a stretch to afford for many Kiwi families. WHS has over 200 stores and no subscription to pay to enjoy the right to shop there...I'm quaking in my boots lol

[nztx]

Fair Values in places V Current SP's appear to be too far apart just now, for my money

Okay so the Reporting round may see some good results, but on the back of the current lock-downs,
it wouldn't surprise if this didn't translate into good dividend payouts like last time

Boards will be ultra conservative based on their perception of NOW times rather that 6 months backwards
up to balances 2-3 months ago .. hope I'm wrong .. but gut feeling suggests this if we see a minimum
of 4-8 weeks lock down for starters.

Businesses will be taking this into account in any distributions they approve now

I'm wary of Retail, Commercial Property, but let's face it things also go round in the circle as well

Am I wrong ?

50-120 maybe Covid cases expected for starters & that's just the start with the variety from NSW on the run

This Hawk is still high soaring in the thermals watching .. ;)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I'm not bullish on the WHS. Costco entering the NZ market may rattle some cages and their competitive advantage of being cheaper is no longer the case with the rise of KMart here. Additionally they're now competing with online retailers who have similar margins and who can deliver very quickly (in a non Covid world).

im actually massively bullish on WHS based on already achieved results - Kmart has been operating for years already and hasn’t had any impact on WHS turnaround in margins and profitability across all of WHS brands (Red sheds, stationary, Noel Leeming, Torpedo7, Themarket.com). Head to WHS thread if you want to see more details of how they have been boosting their profits.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-three-cases-emerge-since-1pm-aut-student-among-cases-new-auckland-locations-of-interest-including-supermarkets/SL4NACJY4WGJ6XUHINUWLQEAVQ/

10 cases now. I can't imagine how anyone could think that's not a really worrying number for the first day. Long road ahead I think and some irrational exuberance on the market today. I think reality will bite and stocks like AIR, AIA, THL, and KPG to name just 4 look very vulnerable to a big pull-back. Really hope I am wrong and this thing doesn't explode like in NSW but its sobering that many countries that beat Covid back last year have themselves been beaten back by the Delta variant.

[Biscuit]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-three-cases-emerge-since-1pm-aut-student-among-cases-new-auckland-locations-of-interest-including-supermarkets/SL4NACJY4WGJ6XUHINUWLQEAVQ/

10 cases now. I can't imagine how anyone could think that's not a really worrying number for the first day. Long road ahead I think and some irrational exuberance on the market today. ......

All cases restricted to the North Island so far, so no real worries for most of the country.

[ThaiJohn]

MPG. I see value @ .45 right now. Seem to be slowly getting their act together. Resumption of dividend is another sweetener.
Disc: I'm in @.45

[nztx]

120 Covid cases expected - with real likelihood, not possibility, nor chance of but expected to

multiply

exponentally


from that level, as is happening in OZ, and every other country with Delta variant


Remember every one of those infected will likely be unaware while affected,
and in contact interacting with others in the community


Reported cases are the HISTORY - you may as well say 5-7 days ago..
since that point, it has moved rapidly on infecting further



from what I remember - recent infections for Aust / NSW:

2 days ago 358

yesterday 435

today 700+


Imbedded & entrenched on the loose, the numbers keep multiplying

Once underway - that's only the ones they know about - it could be 2 or 3 times
worse on infected people but they either dont know it or realise what it is

[LaserEyeKiwi]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-three-cases-emerge-since-1pm-aut-student-among-cases-new-auckland-locations-of-interest-including-supermarkets/SL4NACJY4WGJ6XUHINUWLQEAVQ/

10 cases now. I can't imagine how anyone could think that's not a really worrying number for the first day. Long road ahead I think and some irrational exuberance on the market today. I think reality will bite and stocks like AIR, AIA, THL, and KPG to name just 4 look very vulnerable to a big pull-back. Really hope I am wrong and this thing doesn't explode like in NSW but its sobering that many countries that beat Covid back last year have themselves been beaten back by the Delta variant.

Agree on AIA, AIR & THL seeing massive hits to their revenue during lockdowns (close to 100% reduction) - but KPG isn’t in the same league at all, it’s only facing a small fraction of its revenue being impacted with possible rent relief negotiations.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

120 Covid cases expected - with possibility of

multiplying

exponentally

from that level, like is happening in OZ



from what I remember - infections for Aust:

2 days ago 358

yesterday 435

today 700+


Imbedded & entrenched on the loose, the numbers keep multiplying

Once underway - that's only the ones they know about - it could be 2 or 3 times
worse on infected people but they either dont know it or realise what it is

yes - hence why we are under level 4 lockdown (which NSW failed to do, even now). This is a repeat of last April - hard lockdown and let any infections (detected or not) burn through two transmission cycles in each household bubble.

[couta1]

All cases restricted to the North Island so far, so no real worries for most of the country. Exactly lets keep it in perspective, locked down in Q/town so couldn't be in a better place excepting the skiing has been put on ice(Stuff the 48 hrs to get home, we're staying put for now)

[Beagle]

yes - hence why we are under level 4 lockdown (which NSW failed to do, even now). This is a repeat of last April - hard lockdown and let any infections (detected or not) burn through two transmission cycles in each household bubble.

Agree...absolute minimum 4 week lockdown, probably longer. I am going to reactivate my Netflix subscription this time. Might as well do some mindless bingeing as well as keeping a wary eye on what the market is doing.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Exactly lets keep it in perspective, locked down in Q/town so couldn't be in a better place excepting the skiing has been put on ice(Stuff the 48 hrs to get home, we're staying put for now)

it’s been on the loose in Auckland for at least a week with hundreds of close contacts already identified - the odds are high of at least a few close contacts catching flights/driving to multiple other NZ cities (Queenstown would be high on that list of potential destinations). Hence why the whole country is quite rightly in level 4.

[Mammoth]

Exactly lets keep it in perspective, locked down in Q/town so couldn't be in a better place excepting the skiing has been put on ice(Stuff the 48 hrs to get home, we're staying put for now)

Couta you seem pretty relaxed for someone who just kissed goodbye to the best snow week of the season. I guess it's better to have loved and to have lost.....

[ratkin]

deleted......

[ratkin]

Agree...absolute minimum 4 week lockdown, probably longer. I am going to reactivate my Netflix subscription this time. Might as well do some mindless bingeing as well as keeping a wary eye on what the market is doing.


Amazon prime would be more up your street. Lots of car shows and a very funny farming show with Jeremy Clarkson, plus an excellent series called the man in the high castle

[couta1]

Couta you seem pretty relaxed for someone who just kissed goodbye to the best snow week of the season. I guess it's better to have loved and to have lost..... Epic day at Coronet yesterday and just a taste of what was to come as you say, hopefully we can get rolling again if its centered in Auckland area only.

[Dlownz]

Amazon prime would be more up your street. Lots of car shows and a very funny farming show with Jeremy Clarkson, plus an excellent series called the man in the high castle
I had amazon prime for a month.
There's not really a lot on there and the movies are d grade.
The best shows on there are
The Expanse
The boys
The tick.
I watched them all
Started watching Picard but the month ran out.
So far the best streaming sites are Neon and Disney

[Beagle]

Epic day at Coronet yesterday and just a taste of what was to come as you say, hopefully we can get rolling again if its centered in Auckland area only.
Sounds like good fun but what happens if the whole of N.Z. stays in a Level 4 lockdown for months ?, (Sydney 8 weeks into this and counting and the virus is out of control there with exponential growth), and your 48 hour window to return home has expired ? You could be left with a REALLY hefty accommodation bill for a VERY LONG stay.


Amazon prime would be more up your street. Lots of car shows and a very funny farming show with Jeremy Clarkson, plus an excellent series called the man in the high castle
Thanks, great idea, I will give that a go. I'm quite partial to the old team from Top Gear and haven't ever got around to watching their new show on Amazon Prime.

[couta1]

Sounds like good fun but what happens if the whole of N.Z. stays in a Level 4 lockdown for months ?, (Sydney 8 weeks into this and counting and the virus is out of control there with exponential growth), and your 48 hour window to return home has expired ? You could be left with a REALLY hefty accommodation bill for a VERY LONG stay.


Thanks, great idea, I will give that a go. I'm quite partial to the old team from Top Gear and haven't ever got around to watching their new show on Amazon Prime. Actually there are no flights available from Q/town to WGTN during the 48hr period nor to ChCh, can't get through to their call centre yet there are flights available on Friday onward, weird stuff. We should be able to get an exemption if it comes to that as we are both health professionals.

[Mr Slothbear]

1 store in N.Z. for Costco in 2022 with a subscription based model that might be a stretch to afford for many Kiwi families. WHS has over 200 stores and no subscription to pay to enjoy the right to shop there...I'm quaking in my boots lol

it’ll be pak n save quaking in their boots thinking of costco’s arrival.

can’t wait for a costco here in christchurch, some great savings to be had.

[glennj]

it’ll be pak n save quaking in their boots thinking of costco’s arrival.

can’t wait for a costco here in christchurch, some great savings to be had.

Is Costco coming to ChCh or is that wishful thinking?

[mondograss]

You'd have to assume that a lot of the dairy owners that presently do a lot of shoping at PaknSave would switch to Costco.

[justakiwi]

Can we be sure we will get the same kinds of savings here though?


it’ll be pak n save quaking in their boots thinking of costco’s arrival.

can’t wait for a costco here in christchurch, some great savings to be had.

[101nick101]

This is now a Costco thread

[Balance]

No signs of real panic selling out there.

Guess the market has learnt its lesson from last year's fire sale of stocks.

[fish]

Sounds like good fun but what happens if the whole of N.Z. stays in a Level 4 lockdown for months ?, (Sydney 8 weeks into this and counting and the virus is out of control there with exponential growth), and your 48 hour window to return home has expired ? You could be left with a REALLY hefty accommodation bill for a VERY LONG stay.


Thanks, great idea, I will give that a go. I'm quite partial to the old team from Top Gear and haven't ever got around to watching their new show on Amazon Prime.

Give Clarksons farm a look .After watching the first series I felt admiration for the skills, knowledge and fortitude needed for farming .
Rather than looking for bargains today I am getting the feeling I should be selling .
What stocks do you feel are most at risk?

[Beagle]

No signs of real panic selling out there.

Guess the market has learnt its lesson from last year's fire sale of stocks.

Its very early days my friend.

Thanks fish. The usual suspects of anything tourism and travel related like AIA,. AIR, THL and retail property, KPG all look very vulnerable to me....then there's the less obvious like FBU which has had a great run in recent times but could be seriously affected.

Possible opportunities ? I am looking for a pullback in OCA and to add to my holding. Time will tell if that happens. Otherwise just watching and waiting...

[101nick101]

Give Clarksons farm a look .After watching the first series I felt admiration for the skills, knowledge and fortitude needed for farming .
Rather than looking for bargains today I am getting the feeling I should be selling .
What stocks do you feel are most at risk?

I sold out of my KPG about a week ago
On the fence with AIA (I bought last year during Covid)
I'll be holding onto my aged care/energy stocks

[Leftfield]

No signs of real panic selling out there.
Guess the market has learnt its lesson from last year's fire sale of stocks.


Most investors have had over a year to figure out winners and losers in a Covid world and have already adjusted their portfolios.

I mean really, THL, AIR, AIA??...... crikey hardly news!!

[bottomfeeder]

Early days yet to look for bargains. But I think potential takeover targets will be postponed for a while longer.

[Mista_Trix]

No signs of real panic selling out there.

Guess the market has learnt its lesson from last year's fire sale of stocks.

I think to be honest we just dont know yet right. Could be exponential, might be contained... we're not at a point where we know yet.

I was surprised our markets have shaken off the US for the last 2 days.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Most investors have had over a year to figure out winners and losers in a Covid world and have already adjusted their portfolios.

I mean really, THL, AIR, AIA??...... crikey hardly news!!

I think you have nailed it succinctly - people aren’t valuing these companies on the next half year earnings reports, they realize Covid is impacting near term results and are instead looking at the underlying assets and judging there long term earnings generating capacity.

Airports, campervan fleets, airlines, hotels of course are not going to generate normal earnings now, but will be gushing cashflow again in years to come. If companies are positioned financially to ride out the near term then it makes sense to judge them on earnings 3-5 years out, and discount that earnings back to now.

[Balance]

I think you have nailed it succinctly - people aren’t valuing these companies on the next half year earnings reports, they realize Covid is impacting near term results and are instead looking at the underlying assets and judging there long term earnings generating capacity.

Airports, campervan fleets, airlines, hotels of course are not going to generate normal earnings now, but will be gushing cashflow again in years to come. If companies are positioned financially to ride out the near term than it makes sense to judge them on earnings 3-5 years out, and discount that earnings back to now.

Exactly.

Would a farmer sell his highly productive farm in a drought at a low price if he prudently finances his farm to expect one bad year in every 5?

[mike2020]

Exactly.

Would a farmer sell his highly productive farm in a drought at a low price if he prudently finances his farm to expect one bad year in every 5?
I would say that is a bad analogy. Ask someone who has suffered prolonged drought and been forced to leave a farm. There is little certainty around the future of some of those companies aside from hotels and motels full of govt funded guests. I would have to wonder for some moteliers if there has ever been a better time.

[Balance]

I would say that is a bad analogy. Ask someone who has suffered prolonged drought and been forced to leave a farm. There is little certainty around the future of some of those companies aside from hotels and motels full of govt funded guests. I would have to wonder for some moteliers if there has ever been a better time.

I have plenty of established and experienced farmers all over NZ as clients over the years - I have not met one who had been forced to sell.

Know why?

[fish]

I sold out of my KPG about a week ago
On the fence with AIA (I bought last year during Covid)
I'll be holding onto my aged care/energy stocks

Thanks.
Its good to know what people have been doing .
I have been selling some FBU and HGH and have no doubt holding aged care and energy .No longer hold AIA .

[mike2020]

I was a farmer and I have known people who had to sell. Basically if you manage cash flow the banks will support you but some people can't. I was thinking of some of the Aus farmers in that analogy.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I was a farmer and I have known people who had to sell. Basically if you manage cash flow the banks will support you but some people can't. I was thinking of some of the Aus farmers in that analogy.

But that has nothing to do with the underlying long term earnings potential of those farms, and instead is entirely a factor of the farm finances not being in a position to withstand the temporary impact of a drought.

which is an apt analogy to covid impacted businesses: those without sufficient financial resources may be in trouble, but those that do have sufficient liquidity will be fine despite the short term revenue hits.

also the underlying assets have more than future earnings potential, they also have intrinsic value outside of their use within the business. For example to continue the analogy, a farm not only has future cash generating capacity, but the underlying value of its land is of course a huge store of wealth. Likewise many of the covid impacted businesses possess assets that hold significant intrinsic value.

[mike2020]

But that has nothing to do with the underlying long term earnings potential of those farms, and instead is entirely a factor of the farm finances not being in a position to withstand the temporary impact of a drought.

which is an apt analogy to covid impacted businesses: those without sufficient financial resources may be in trouble, but those that do have sufficient liquidity will be fine despite the short term revenue hits.
Not wanting to argue but how are you sure it is short term? Next variant not happening? Also some of those Aus farms were and are dustbowls. That is the analogy I was making.

[Balance]

Not wanting to argue but how are you sure it is short term? Next variant not happening?

The vaccine is what makes this year so different from last year.

My ex-colleague & friends working in Singapore & Shanghai say life continues there, albeit with some restrictions and precautions.

We are so brain washed by our government here to accept the elimination strategy at the expense of a rapid vaccine rollout. Our loss.

[Waltzing]

NZX 50 up ... no panic yet and the transmission change is broken and the system is kicking in.

remember the science people were in contact with the german science team back in Jan 2020

your team is practised and they are on the park and arming to kick it between the posts's from the 50 yard line.

id back them any day....id get it in the ear everyday..

[Biscuit]

....

We are so brain washed by our government here to accept the elimination strategy at the expense of a rapid vaccine rollout. Our loss.


To be honest, they are pushing both strategies. You very lucky 'cinda has your back mate.

[mike2020]

The vaccine is what makes this year so different from last year.

My ex-colleague & friends working in Singapore & Shanghai say life continues there, albeit with some restrictions and precautions.

We are so brain washed by our government here to accept the elimination strategy at the expense of a rapid vaccine rollout. Our loss.
I can accept that. I'm getting mine soon enough. So far I have not seen any real bargain buying just good results. OCA is undervalued but I have enough. I hope to see HGH post a great result and I was more than happy with PGW. All good longer term holds at a fair price today.

[alokdhir]

The vaccine is what makes this year so different from last year.

My ex-colleague & friends working in Singapore & Shanghai say life continues there, albeit with some restrictions and precautions.

We are so brain washed by our government here to accept the elimination strategy at the expense of a rapid vaccine rollout. Our loss.

First of all in hindsight its always possible to have had a better plan .

Secondly with new recent developments its becoming more and more clear that elimination will not work . So need vaccinate and open up

But looking at many highly vaccinated countries like USA , UK and Israel ...they are paying a heavy price for that strategy too as vaccines efficacy is fast reducing and its immunity also fast waning .

Which one is easier to do ...maybe vaccinate and open up ...that will be sacrificing many lives as well as public health goals ...but like other countries have chosen out of no other way ...making 8 happy by sacrificing 2 ...very soon NZ will also have to do that ...OZ already resigned to that ...we will too

But that doesn't mean our original approach was wrong ...its just not possible now ...Game has changed so we need change strategy too !!

Elimination is a pipe dream now ...Nelson's choice is " Live with the Virus "

At present Virus has the upper hand and its winning the war ...but Empire will strike back ....I am sure

[Balance]

To be honest, they are pushing both strategies. You very lucky 'cinda has your back mate.

That she has - from front of the queue to last in the queue.

Meanwhile, other countries are getting on with a strategy to open up while NZ is still obsessing about keeping Covid out! And the latest outbreak shows the luck has run out.

[Biscuit]

........

At present Virus has the upper hand and its winning the war ...but Empire will strike back ....I am sure


But, but, the Empire are the bad guys! You obviously not a Star Wars fan. Opening up and relying on the vaccine is a really dumb idea. We need to vaccinate but as long as the virus is out of control in the rest of the world and throwing up new variants daily, we need to keep to an elimination strategy as well.

[sb9]

The vaccine is what makes this year so different from last year.

My ex-colleague & friends working in Singapore & Shanghai say life continues there, albeit with some restrictions and precautions.

We are so brain washed by our government here to accept the elimination strategy at the expense of a rapid vaccine rollout. Our loss.

For a team of 5 mln odd, we've slept at the wheel for vaccination roll out. We should've done and dusted with vaccination roll out by end of June at the max, if we had planned it well. Instead our govt was basking in glory of what a great job they did from last year and how we're envy of other nations having such a freedom of life. Few months down the track it bites us back and now we're paying for it. Go figure!!!

[alokdhir]

But, but, the Empire are the bad guys! You obviously not a Star Wars fan. Opening up and relying on the vaccine is a really dumb idea. We need to vaccinate but as long as the virus is out of control in the rest of the world and throwing up new variants daily, we need to keep to an elimination strategy as well.

For me human race is Empire ...tell me we are the good guys ...Very discipled and rules abiding and not selfish ...never rush to supermarkets to beat others ...lol

[iceman]

But, but, the Empire are the bad guys! You obviously not a Star Wars fan. Opening up and relying on the vaccine is a really dumb idea. We need to vaccinate but as long as the virus is out of control in the rest of the world and throwing up new variants daily, we need to keep to an elimination strategy as well.

Sadly that is a complete fallacy ! Totally unrealistic and unattainable.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

That she has - from front of the queue to last in the queue.

Meanwhile, other countries are getting on with a strategy to open up while NZ is still obsessing about keeping Covid out! And the latest outbreak shows the luck has run out.

lockdowns like we are currently in have always been part of the plan - hence why this is the 4th lockdown we have had. stopping virus at the border being the main goal, and using lockdown for any cases that get through. It’s not a matter of our “luck running out” - this is simply the response for any community outbreaks, and vaccination and masks are new additions to the original line of defense.

NZs elimination plan is entirely valid until we have wide enough vaccination that covid will not overwhelm health system. see Fiji for what happens in the scenario where you embrace a “live with it” option too early: most deaths there are now in residential properties, as they simply don’t have any capacity left in hospital for even the severe cases. Not only are preventable covid deaths soaring, but also deaths from other causes due to basically no health system in operation - in other words people are dying from easily treatable causes because covid has collapsed the health system entirely.

Just look to England as to what is needed - yes they failed to contain covid but now with a high vaccination rate their health system can withstand the massive amount of covid in the community because the vaccinated who catch covid are not needing hospitalization. Our goal should definitely be elimination for another 6 months until vaccination is high enough.

[Biscuit]

Sadly that is a complete fallacy ! Totally unrealistic and unattainable.

We should see some stability overseas before giving up the elimination strategy. The next variant that becomes rampant is likely to be resistant to the vaccine. Once you have given up on elimination there is no way back.

[Gunner]

We should see some stability overseas before giving up the elimination strategy. The next variant that becomes rampant is likely to be resistant to the vaccine. Once you have given up on elimination there is no way back.

There could be variants every year for decades. We cant hide indefinitely. Sooner or later the cost benefit ratio changes.

[Biscuit]

There could be variants every year for decades. We cant hide indefinitely. Sooner or later the cost benefit ratio changes.

Once the world is more fully vaccinated and the virus is no longer running completely out of control, the chance of variants arising that can escape the vaccine will reduce and we can open up - as long as we too are highly vaccinated.

[Gunner]

Once the world is more fully vaccinated and the virus is no longer running completely out of control, the chance of variants arising that can escape the vaccine will reduce and we can open up - as long as we too are highly vaccinated.

The virus will always be out of control and the resulting risk of a variants developing will always be there. Even if you vaccinate 90% of the world's population (which wont happen) the risk is still there. We will never open up if we are waiting for the world to vaccinate. The issue I have is when will NZ realise you cant eradicate covid or have intermittent lock downs for ever.

[alokdhir]

Once the world is more fully vaccinated and the virus is no longer running completely out of control, the chance of variants arising that can escape the vaccine will reduce and we can open up - as long as we too are highly vaccinated.

As things stand today ...that scenario of whole of the world vaccinated at the same time with active immunity and very low number of worldwide cases to reduce virus mutations is next to ZERO IMHO

So why chase an unrealistic option ...more prudent to adapt to more practical one

[Nor]

The common cold is a coronavirus and how much success have we had eliminating that. Zero. Will be the same with covid, we will have to live with it. Billions will be wasted before that's realized.

[allfromacell]

Very positive update today, nice to see it contained in Auckland with no evidence in wastewater elsewhere. Just gotta tie up the loose ends and wait a week or so and back to normal once again :).

[Baa_Baa]

Once the world is more fully vaccinated and the virus is no longer running completely out of control, the chance of variants arising that can escape the vaccine will reduce and we can open up - as long as we too are highly vaccinated.

Lambda variant. Look it up.

[Biscuit]

As things stand today ...that scenario of whole of the world vaccinated at the same time with active immunity and very low number of worldwide cases to reduce virus mutations is next to ZERO IMHO

So why chase an unrealistic option ...more prudent to adapt to more practical one


At the moment the virus is still rampant globally and there are enough vaccinated people out there to provide a significant selection pressure for any variants that occur that are resistant to the vaccine. From the point of view of producing vaccine-resistant virus, this is the most dangerous time. In the not too distant future, more widespread vaccination plus vaccines that more effectively target delta will significantly reduce the risks.

[Mista_Trix]

... what's the topic of this thread again?? Seems to have shifted...

[Biscuit]

... what's the topic of this thread again?? Seems to have shifted...

I think we've all decided there are no bargains coming anytime soon so we're arguing about something else. What's on your shopping list?

[101nick101]

I think we've all decided there are no bargains coming anytime soon so we're arguing about something else. What's on your shopping list?

If there's no bargains I might load up on more Avepoint, Apple, Vector Acquisition Corp, Lucid Motors and Hyliion

[Mista_Trix]

I think we've all decided there are no bargains coming anytime soon so we're arguing about something else. What's on your shopping list?

I'm value averaging into;
NZX:
EBOS
EROAD
FPH
GMT
HGH
IFT
MFT
MEL
OCA
POT
SPK

ASX:
VMT
XRO

With a massive holding of;
EVS.ax

Was hoping to get a better idea of what would be heading where. But I'm no good at picking tops and bottoms, hence trying to average in to what I think is quite a solid portfolio.

[greater fool]

Removed due to " fish " objection to post.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?12180-Bargains-during-lockdown-what-s-on-your-shopping-list&p=901454&viewfull=1#post901454

I wonder why fish Quoted the post found so objectionable?

[Biscuit]

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02408732-6A1046200?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4

(https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02408732-6A1046200?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4)

Fair enough. Not for me though, I've decided I have no capacity to assess biotech companies or their products.

[fish]

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02408732-6A1046200?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4



(https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02408732-6A1046200?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4)
Should not be in this thread
Looks like marketing .
Has not been used in Phase 1 trials yet so a long shot that will require large amounts cash .
Are you going to be part of the funding?

[RTM]

Well....so much for the bargains.
So far..................

[Panda-NZ-]

GNE looks nice given lower interest rates for longer.
WHS if you haven't got any yet.

[traineeinvestor]

Currently finding better value propositions elsewhere. Picked up some ASX listed BOL earlier this week.

[value_investor]

Investors loading up on stocks when you can't buy much else by the looks of it. Perhaps the case numbers haven't been as bad as first thought of. I wouldn't count my chickens given the crazy list in locations of interest.

Interesting to see where it goes if we stay at L4 long enough to make a material difference to earnings for some of the companies.

[Beagle]

Investors loading up on stocks when you can't buy much else by the looks of it. Perhaps the case numbers haven't been as bad as first thought of. I wouldn't count my chickens given the crazy list in locations of interest.

Interesting to see where it goes if we stay at L4 long enough to make a material difference to earnings for some of the companies.

Its certainly a very long list with the potential for a number of super spreaders. I've hit the pause button and am sitting on my paws.

[nztx]

Its certainly a very long list with the potential for a number of super spreaders. I've hit the pause button and am sitting on my paws.


Indeed .. amazing all the effort from just one or a few individuals inadvertently carrying an unwanted invisible escapee


can see why NSW's Covid problem has quickly run wild - possibly mild compared with Indonesia, India & elsewhere

[Balance]

Companies reporting outstanding results - showing the short sighted investors who sold out in panic last year or stayed out of the market that the pandemic and the lockdowns are not the end of the world.

So much as it would have been great to snare some bargains from the current lockdown, the fact that the market has not tanked but held up incredibly well augers well for the rest of the investment year.

[Balance]

Companies reporting outstanding results - showing the short sighted investors who sold out in panic last year or stayed out of the market that the pandemic and the lockdowns are not the end of the world.

So much as it would have been great to snare some bargains from the current lockdown, the fact that the market has not tanked but held up incredibly well augers well for the rest of the investment year.

And don't forget - it's lockdown time so the Sharesies crowd are back in droves. They did so well last year during the lockdowns and now, have a real taste for trading on the NZX.

[Biscuit]

And don't forget - it's lockdown time so the Sharesies crowd are back in droves. They did so well last year during the lockdowns and now, have a real taste for trading on the NZX.

The NZ market has been treading water all year. It needed something to give it a kick back up. Seems covid might have been that kick. Weird though it is. Sitting on your paws is just going to give you sore paws.

[Balance]

The NZ market has been treading water all year. It needed something to give it a kick back up. Seems covid might have been that kick. Weird though it is. Sitting on your paws is just going to give you sore paws.

Not sure about that (sore paws) but we are certainly seeing excellent gains from the companies reporting great results.

I look at my portfolio and realized that this is going to be a super bumper reporting period for dividends - 8.6% yield from FBU & 15.2% yield from PGW just to name 2 on my last investment price last year! The capital gains are just as yummy!

[RTM]

We're only two/three days into lockdown team. Yes...good so far. Lets see how things are looking in another 3-4 weeks.
I am being cautious.

[Biscuit]

We're only two/three days into lockdown team. Yes...good so far. Lets see how things are looking in another 3-4 weeks.
I am being cautious.

I'm not throwing everything at it but I'm in buying mode: too much cash; NZ companies are knocking it out of the park at the moment; interest rate rises are off the cards at least in the short term but probably longer; there is still no evidence this outbreak is outside Auckland.... also, don't you feel the market is itching to go higher?

[RTM]

I'm not throwing everything at it but I'm in buying mode: too much cash; NZ companies are knocking it out of the park at the moment; interest rate rises are off the cards at least in the short term but probably longer; there is still no evidence this outbreak is outside Auckland.... also, don't you feel the market is itching to go higher?

I understand and have to much cash as well that I am itching to get working for us. For me current interest rates are a bit irrelevant as 99% of the time I am investing with a longer time frame...5-10 years in mind. Additionaly I am worried about inflation....nevertheless.....I am sitting on my hands for now. This COVID outbreak we have is going to create more uncertainty going forward.

[winner69]

I understand and have to much cash as well that I am itching to get working for us. For me current interest rates are a bit irrelevant as 99% of the time I am investing with a longer time frame...5-10 years in mind. Additionaly I am worried about inflation....nevertheless.....I am sitting on my hands for now. This COVID outbreak we have is going to create more uncertainty going forward.

RTM …your PM inbox is full

[Balance]

I'm not throwing everything at it but I'm in buying mode: too much cash; NZ companies are knocking it out of the park at the moment; interest rate rises are off the cards at least in the short term but probably longer; there is still no evidence this outbreak is outside Auckland.... also, don't you feel the market is itching to go higher?

Looking at depths in a few stocks and you can see that the Sharesies crowd are back in the game.

How much have they got to throw at the market now? $500m?

PS. Just checked - as at end of May, $1.3 billion!

[RTM]

RTM …your PM inbox is full

Thanks...cleared

[Biscuit]

I understand and have to much cash as well that I am itching to get working for us....

I'm about to "retire" and although I don't mind having a chunk of cash in reserve that can keep me going for a few years, the rest has to be working. Many companies don't look over-priced to me given the environment we are in. We have rental properties, but realistically, what other alternative is there to shares?

[Balance]

I'm about to "retire" and although I don't mind having a chunk of cash in reserve that can keep me going for a few years, the rest has to be working. Many companies don't look over-priced to me given the environment we are in. We have rental properties, but realistically, what other alternative is there to shares?

More rental properties but overseas.

[Beagle]

I think the numbers coming in the new few days will give people pause for thought.

[alokdhir]

I'm about to "retire" and although I don't mind having a chunk of cash in reserve that can keep me going for a few years, the rest has to be working. Many companies don't look over-priced to me given the environment we are in. We have rental properties, but realistically, what other alternative is there to shares?

IMHO keep cash or equivalent for next 2-3 years and rest in Nz equity diversified portfolio . Over diversification will reduce returns . My example working very well is equal share in MFT + FPH + KFL + NZG ....

[Biscuit]

IMHO keep cash or equivalent for next 2-3 years and rest in Nz equity diversified portfolio . Over diversification will reduce returns . My example working very well is equal share in MFT + FPH + KFL + NZG ....

I have MLN, but can't see the point of KFL: easy enough just to buy the underlying shares?

[iceman]

More rental properties but overseas.

Agree. We've have some but anyone thinking about it needs to make sure they have good property managers, which has become much more important with COVID around the World.

[alokdhir]

I have MLN, but can't see the point of KFL: easy enough just to buy the underlying shares?

For me KFL is their best offering ....u can see its long term returns ...MLN is doing well only recently

Moreover I prefer NZX stocks as they more suited for Retired people ...less volatile and more safe

I just gave example of my portfolio which I have not changed for last 11 years and its doing pretty well . KFL gives regular dividends also for incremental enjoyment .

My only trouble so far is with KFL warrants issues ...still trying to figure out best way to deal with them without loosing out as I dont want to subscribe to them anymore

[Biscuit]

Agree. We've have some but anyone thinking about it needs to make sure they have good property managers, which has become much more important with COVID around the World.

So then, international travel would be tax deductible?

[mike2020]

For me KFL is their best offering ....u can see its long term returns ...MLN is doing well only recently

Moreover I prefer NZX stocks as they more suited for Retired people ...less volatile and more safe

I just gave example of my portfolio which I have not changed for last 11 years and its doing pretty well . KFL gives regular dividends also for incremental enjoyment .

My only trouble so far is with KFL warrants issues ...still trying to figure out best way to deal with them without loosing out as I dont want to subscribe to them anymore
Selling them in the last 2 weeks before they are due can be a winner.

[Biscuit]

For me KFL is their best offering ....u can see its long term returns ...MLN is doing well only recently

Moreover I prefer NZX stocks as they more suited for Retired people ...less volatile and more safe....


MLN been a bit over priced but they are an easy way to get overseas exposure. I'm in the market for more of them if only they would drop a bit closer to NTA. Seems a bit on the nose to pay both a fee and a premium. But otherwise I think they serve a purpose in the portfolio.

[alokdhir]

Selling them in the last 2 weeks before they are due can be a winner.

If U ask Mr B he will tell u that is not the right time .

Example KFL warrant peaked in late Jan 2021 around 45.5 cents ....where as 2 weeks before exercise it was 27 cents

BRM warrant maybe peaked 36 cents ...soon 2 weeks before 29th Oct it maybe 25 cents ....

[iceman]

So then, international travel would be tax deductible?

Correct. Costs relating to any business is tax deductible (dependent on setup of course), unless they are NZ residential property !!

[fungus pudding]

Correct. Costs relating to any business is tax deductible (dependent on setup of course), unless they are NZ residential property !!

But maybe not if taxman views it as primarily designed for tax avoidance.

[iceman]

But maybe not if taxman views it as primarily designed for tax avoidance.

Of course, like any other business.

[alokdhir]

I am surprised no one talking about the breakout of NZX 50 outside the rectangle Hoop was talking about some times back .

And its on the upside as expected . So where to now. NZX 50 have consolidated a lot still 1% down YTD

Please thoughts !!!

[nztx]

More red hitting the NZX board I see .. still flying high here :)

[Bobdn]

Yep, no bargains to be had with usf.nzx, usg.nzx etc. They've just reached all time highs today. I've got a feeling the longer the lockdowns go on, the better they'll do;)

[couta1]

Yep, no bargains to be had with usf.nzx, usg.nzx etc. They've just reached all time highs today. I've got a feeling the longer the lockdowns go on, the better they'll do;) Yep just like last year when the NZX become the playpen of choice for the bored and those with a punting tilt, doesn't matter if any given share is worth X amount or not, its all about a bit of enjoyment during a lousy period.

[Bobdn]

Yep just like last year when the NZX become the playpen of choice for the bored and those with a punting tilt, doesn't matter if any given share is worth X amount or not, its all about a bit of enjoyment during a lousy period.

...and the possibility that the NZD loses value the longer the lockdown continues but who would know about that (not me), currency movement would be the last thing I'd bet on. These funds are unhedged of course.

Ultimately it all depends on what happens over on the NYSE.

[value_investor]

No bargains, it will take weeks I think to get there if we get there. We know that long lockdowns will have material differences to earnings. Looking at how the markets move, I think people are wise to the short term fluctuations. The events of the market that happened in late March will probably not transpire again.

[Beagle]

I don't think anyone thinks its going to be anything remotely like late March 2020 but the strength of the market is surprising as there will be effects on earnings if this drags on and on. NSW's could be locked down until Christmas. Couldn't possibly happen here, or could it ?

[Curly]

Each lockdown extension market will weaken. Delta will land in Christchurch anytime soon.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I think one thing to remember is that the government will be spending billions of dollars during this lockdown supporting businesses through the wage subsidy & resurgent payments. So businesses still have some limited cash coming in, while consumers are now stockpiling their cash and will be spending it in a pent up fashion come the end of lockdown. All in all we end up with a net increase in spending in the retail economy.

And yes, before anyone asks, what I’m saying is that it’s entirely possible that due to the large amount of financial support from the government in New Zealand, lockdowns may in fact be a net win for large segments of the economy - the impact is rear loaded though.

I also wonder how an extended lockdown will impact the supply shortages across various areas of New Zealand. For instance the ships are still coming (the rest of the world hasn’t stopped - unlike April 2020), so some areas may have a chance to refill supply chains that are dependent on imports, lessening inflation pressure.

[Biscuit]

I don't think anyone thinks its going to be anything remotely like late March 2020 but the strength of the market is surprising as there will be effects on earnings if this drags on and on. NSW's could be locked down until Christmas. Couldn't possibly happen here, or could it ?

Certainly worth keeping something in reserve in case the market tanks. But the world goes on, and there are risks both ways. NZ is certainly more capable of dealing with this than NSW has proven to be.

[calledone]

I think it's unrealistic to expect a big bargain like seen in Mar 2020. Back then there was huge amount of uncertainties, no vaccines and the whole world stopped. In our case right now we are not facing those huge issues anymore. Much of the world is opening up, vaccinations are increasing at great speed around the world, people are still travelling and most of all the government is better equipped with tools to hold up the economy if this drags longer than most people will like.

[nztx]

it's early days yet - worse expected out there with infections to be reported - hinted at by the news

Hospitality is already starting to make muffled 'concerned' signs

Retail in places may well in time, with extended lock downs as the exponental expected starts becoming visible
particularly in larger centres

At some point the pixies playing in the NZX garden hiking up or piling the notes in on artificially stimulated values may well see reality
in that some of the counters on the board are floating around at unsustainable blue sky values .. ;)


will it be a long slow deflation as a few of the pennies start to slide, or a sudden loss of air pressure
as all the pennies fall at once, for some of the counters ? ;)

[alokdhir]

FPH maybe the biggest bargain even at current prices for 2 main reason

1. It has proven Covid relief hospital treatment thru its Optiflow and Airvo 2 Nasal High flow therapy and hospitalisations are rising world over and the way its world wide well distributed ( Already Critical Patients numbers same as last early Jan peak ) it seems it can stay or keep rising for some time to come

2. It offers hedge against your other opening up / retail etc portfolio so u can choose to drop one side at the right time if needed ...lets u be in the market invested and not expose u to big risk of meltdowns too

3 . With NZD dropping like its now ....prolonged Lockdown in NZ will surely lead to more Govt borrowing and pressure on rates . Wage subsidy is a big number ...Level 4 lockdowns cost public funds $ 1.5 B a week ...

Thats my opinion ...DYOR

PS : Disclosure ....Already hold @ 25% of total long term portfolio

[LaserEyeKiwi]

FPH maybe the biggest bargain even at current prices for 2 main reason

1. It has proven Covid relief hospital treatment thru its Optiflow and Airvo 2 Nasal High flow therapy and hospitalisations are rising world over and the way its world wide well distributed ( Already Critical Patients numbers same as last early Jan peak ) it seems it can stay or keep rising for some time to come

2. It offers hedge against your other opening up / retail etc portfolio so u can choose to drop one side at the right time if needed ...lets u be in the market invested and not expose u to big risk of meltdowns too

3 . With NZD dropping like its now ....prolonged Lockdown in NZ will surely lead to more Govt borrowing and pressure on rates . Wage subsidy is a big number ...Level 4 lockdowns cost public funds $ 1.5 B a week ...

Thats my opinion ...DYOR

PS : Disclosure ....Already hold @ 25% of total long term portfolio

FPH is trading at an earnings multiple of 37x based on massive trailing twelve month earnings from Covid related sales.

it would be a brave investor to call that “the biggest bargain” on NZX.

[Waltzing]

RBNZ moves will be interesting if it goes on for a month or more as reserve funds should cover it how much spare? 5 B or more?


A Doctor is stranded in queen town after a ski trip.

Best to keep buying when there is a crisis. Crisis tend to pass unless its an end of all events.

[Biscuit]

......Best to keep buying when there is a crisis. Crisis tend to pass unless its an end of all events.

That, in my view, is exactly right.

[Waltzing]

Did not buy enough last april may by a long way..every time never enough...

Is that Doctor about? and is related?

The chap with the C ..A name.. is he a doctor? well anyway the doctor trapped in queenstown made the papers today.

[Biscuit]

Did not buy enough last april may by a long way..every time never enough...


My biggest years for throwing money at the share market: 2009 and 2020, but yes, not enough.

[Balance]

My biggest years for throwing money at the share market: 2009 and 2020, but yes, not enough.

Exactly why such spectacular gains were made last year - most investors held back funds just in case the world came to an end.

It will always be that the best gains are made when market anxiety is at its highest. Something about the ole’ greed, fear and hope.

[alokdhir]

Exactly why such spectacular gains were made last year - most investors held back funds just in case the world came to an end.

It will always be that the best gains are made when market anxiety is at its highest. Something about the ole’ greed, fear and hope.

Thats why NZX 50 made its strongest move on Lockdown day 1. Climbing the wall of worry its called I reckon !!

[value_investor]

Thats why NZX 50 made its strongest move on Lockdown day 1. Climbing the wall of worry its called I reckon !!

Its a bit early to say how long we'll be in and that rising prices on day 1 is a good thing to get in or not. I'm not sure where the point is where it falls because we are in lockdown for so long. So many retail stocks could be affected not being open. A stock like FBU not being able to build same as the retirement villages.

[Biscuit]

Its a bit early to say how long we'll be in and that rising prices on day 1 is a good thing to get in or not. I'm not sure where the point is where it falls because we are in lockdown for so long. So many retail stocks could be affected not being open. A stock like FBU not being able to build same as the retirement villages.

That there is the wall-of-worry. So many things to worry about. Diversify, keep a bit in reserve, but keep on climbing.

[Beagle]

Its a bit early to say how long we'll be in and that rising prices on day 1 is a good thing to get in or not. I'm not sure where the point is where it falls because we are in lockdown for so long. So many retail stocks could be affected not being open. A stock like FBU not being able to build same as the retirement villages.

Excellent post. We're pretty much in unchartered waters here and everyone has to plot their own course.
What's right for someone starting out on their investment journey in their 20's or 30's is likely to be quite different for someone like me nearing retirement who has done very well from the rebound off the lows in March 2020.

Very little is crystal clear here but what's apparent so far is that:-
There has been a lot of money on the sidelines anticipating a delta outbreak as a matter of almost inevitability, (most everyone I talk to has shared with me the same opinion I have been holding that an outbreak and further lockdown was only a question of when, not if)
That weight of money is looking for a cheap entry point and its extremely unlikely we will get anything like the market correction we got in the first lockdown of March / April 2020

Far less clear is whether we will experience a grind downwards if this lockdown becomes protracted and where's the point of inflection where the weight of money created by the Govt stimulus is overcome through the sheer exhaustion of being in lockdown for the protracted period of time and the realization that earnings are going to be impacted to a material extent ?

Further clouding the short-medium term prognosis for the market is the questions of whether we can achieve elimination of the Delta strain here for enough time to achieve a high vaccination rate, will the percentage of people vaccinated be enough to open up the economy in 2022 or will we have a series of lockdowns through other variants in the future and what's the impact on stocks in the medium term ?

Some will point to experiences overseas where economies have been opened up and everything seems to be doing okay but I can't help observe very recent concerns about the spread of delta overseas even in economies where vaccination rates are very high. The serious fall of oil prices in the last week is all driven off delta concerns slowing world-wide economic growth and is a warning sign to me that all is not well with the re-opening strategy many countries are embarking upon.

I am happy to play defensively for a while. We certainly live in interesting times !

[fish]

I don't think anyone thinks its going to be anything remotely like late March 2020 but the strength of the market is surprising as there will be effects on earnings if this drags on and on. NSW's could be locked down until Christmas. Couldn't possibly happen here, or could it ?

Too early to say .Auckland (and possibly wellington ) likely to be in level 4 for at least 4 weeks in my opinion .

[Beagle]

Too early to say .Auckland (and possibly wellington ) likely to be in level 4 for at least 4 weeks in my opinion .

I agree 100%, (2 x 14 day transmission cycles) but that's about all the visibility we have at this stage which is what makes "playing possum stuck in the headlights" seem like the logical thing to do.
Playing possum doesn't come naturally to Beagle but there's always a chance an old dog can learn new tricks :)

[Old mate]

The list of locations and close contacts is unlike anything we have seen so far. I think we are in a very dangerous position and will be very lucky to be out of this in four weeks.

[Greekwatchdog]

Auckland and Wellington will be for at least another week then maybe level 3. South Island should drop to level 2/level 3. We have to learn to live with this virus same as we do any other..

[couta1]

Auckland and Wellington will be for at least another week then maybe level 3. South Island should drop to level 2/level 3. We have to learn to live with this virus same as we do any other.. Areas with no confirmed cases over the next few days should move to level 2 ASAP and get the economy rolling again, your last sentence should be obvious but doesn't seem to be.

[Gunner]

Areas with no confirmed cases over the next few days should move to level 2 ASAP and get the economy rolling again, your last sentence should be obvious but doesn't seem to be.

Agreed. It's a concern the lack of intelligent opposing media in this country. Why is the media so compliant. Why are not asking the tough questions like why is the vaccine rollout so slow, what % of vaccines will prevent lockdowns, what is the target date? Does Jacinda know or care about the economic impact? Are what point does the cost become too much? Lockdown until xmas?

[Snoopy]

Agreed. It's a concern the lack of intelligent opposing media in this country. Why is the media so compliant. Why are not asking the tough questions like:
why is the vaccine rollout so slow?


Because for whatever reason the supply was slow. Another batch of vaccine arrived in the country a couple of days ago apparently, according to Chris Hipkins.



what % of vaccines will prevent lockdowns,


The answer to that question depends on how transmissible the virus becomes and how many have to go to hospital as a result of catching it. If the R value of the Delta variant is really 6, as some have been bandying about, then I think we need an effective vaccination percentage of 97-98%. That isn't going to happen. So the government may have to advocate for behavioural changes as well and retain the lock down option should the virus get away. We can't follow the example of other OECD countries because we have so few ICU beds.



what is the target date?


End of 2021



Does Jacinda know or care about the economic impact? Are what point does the cost become too much? Lockdown until xmas?


The best economic response is the best health response. The economy gets hammered if you keep things locked down AND if you open it up while the delta strain of Covid-19 is still circulating.

SNOOPY

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Because for whatever reason the supply was slow. Another batch of vaccine arrived in the country a couple of days ago apparently, according to Chris Hipkins.



The answer to that question depends on how transmissible the virus becomes and how many have to go to hospital as a result of catching it. If the R value of the Delta variant is really 6, as some have been bandying about, then I think we need an effective vaccination percentage of 97-98%. That isn't going to happen. So the government may have to advocate for behavioural changes as well and retain the lock down option should the virus get away. We can't follow the example of other OECD countries because we have so few ICU beds.



End of 2021



The best economic response is the best health response. The economy gets hammered if you keep things locked down AND if you open it up while the delta strain of Covid-19 is still circulating.

SNOOPY

well said snoopy. Not sure why so many people fail to understand basic facts that should be obvious to anyone who hasn’t been living under a rock for 18 months.

[Gerald]

12870
Interesting graph I saw today.

[Gunner]

Because for whatever reason the supply was slow. Another batch of vaccine arrived in the country a couple of days ago apparently, according to Chris Hipkins.





The answer to that question depends on how transmissible the virus becomes and how many have to go to hospital as a result of catching it. If the R value of the Delta variant is really 6, as some have been bandying about, then I think we need an effective vaccination percentage of 97-98%. That isn't going to happen. So the government may have to advocate for behavioural changes as well and retain the lock down option should the virus get away. We can't follow the example of other OECD countries because we have so few ICU beds.



End of 2021.

Yeah Ok, we'll see. NZ seems to want to remove all risks at any cost so perhaps not until 99% are vaccinated. It is August, what is being done to turbo charge the vaccinations? All hands need to be on deck...while the cost of the lockdown is over 1.5 billion a week.



The best economic response is the best health response. The economy gets hammered if you keep things locked down AND if you open it up while the delta strain of Covid-19 is still circulating.



SNOOPY


Yes I heard that, why is NZ the last in the que to get these vaccines?

Covid and their various forms are not going away and NZ cant indefinitely hide away scared of the world. Sydney reported over 800 cases yesterday after being in lockdown for a month. It is clearly not working. End of September is the target for them now. Likely NZ will be the same.

I agree we should be in a form of lockdown now as vaccinations aren't high enough but it is crazy to be this severe for an indefinite period of time. We don't ban cars even though they kill hundred a year. A new normal needs to be established where distancing and increased hygiene needs to adhered to, but closing the country down indefinitely where the end goal of zero cases is likely never coming back is crazy. When will Labour realise this, in December? Do you really reckon Jacinda has a clue what she's doing? Great at communications but does she really know about the economy and business needs? Her CV says not.

Vaccines, vaccines, vaccines is the answer. The UK has made many mistakes but see how they are getting back to normal now.

[Gunner]

well said snoopy. Not sure why so many people fail to understand basic facts that should be obvious to anyone who hasn’t been living under a rock for 18 months.

You can be a good little sheep and do as you're told without question but I have some questions that aren't being pushed hard enough by the compliment NZ media.

[Greekwatchdog]

What we spend the rest of our lives living under a rock whilst incompetent bureaucrats spin the web? If this Govt. had done their job we would be safe but no somehow some innocent person contracted it. Why don't we just invite some lunatic to end the world and put us out of our misery?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

You can be a good little sheep and do as you're told without question but I have some questions that aren't being pushed hard enough by the compliment NZ media.

cool story bro, tell me more.

[fish]

Because for whatever reason the supply was slow. Another batch of vaccine arrived in the country a couple of days ago apparently, according to Chris Hipkins.



The answer to that question depends on how transmissible the virus becomes and how many have to go to hospital as a result of catching it. If the R value of the Delta variant is really 6, as some have been bandying about, then I think we need an effective vaccination percentage of 97-98%. That isn't going to happen. So the government may have to advocate for behavioural changes as well and retain the lock down option should the virus get away. We can't follow the example of other OECD countries because we have so few ICU beds.



End of 2021



The best economic response is the best health response. The economy gets hammered if you keep things locked down AND if you open it up while the delta strain of Covid-19 is still circulating.

SNOOPY

My hope is alert levels are refined in the light of what we know to allow more economic activity .
For instance Outdoor occupations which are largely solitary are prohibited at the moment-forestry and horticulture for instance .A lot of produce is being destroyed.
The rationale behind this has nothing to do with health risk.

[Dlownz]

Horticulture people seem to be out. All doing frost protection this morning.
Food production is classed as essential.

[alokdhir]

I don't think anyone thinks its going to be anything remotely like late March 2020 but the strength of the market is surprising as there will be effects on earnings if this drags on and on. NSW's could be locked down until Christmas. Couldn't possibly happen here, or could it ?

I respect your views and judgement . U have a very keen sense about markets and its future course .

As u said almost everyone knew this is going to happen in NZ too . So rather then cashing up ...I looked for stocks which will benefit from such a case ...like FPH / MFT etc and went over weight on such plays and underweight on negatively impacted stocks like retail etc .

This helps to keep me invested also so no need fear FOMO effect .

When the time will come can switch back to normal economy stocks ...

But as things stand today its more complicated then before and not happening soon and in a manner we think it will ....Market always surprises u !

The way the Govt. is selling " Elimination Not Possible Now " strategy so fast means they are on right track ...soon NZ will also fall in line and go about their business in normal way after vaccinating all who want it .

Pandemic will slowly become endemic with Covid forever around . That will slowly lead to seperate covid wings in all hospitals

Best we can do for ourselves and our communities and economy is to get vaccinated !

[Crypto Crude]

What we spend the rest of our lives living under a rock whilst incompetent bureaucrats spin the web? If this Govt. had done their job we would be safe but no somehow some innocent person contracted it. Why don't we just invite some lunatic to end the world and put us out of our misery?

We have China for that... they have said they will nuclear bomb Japan off the face of this Earth if they defend Taiwan...

The best thing you can do is buy cryptocurrency...
Every year more and more fiat currency is printed diluting your wealth...

[101nick101]

We have China for that... they have said they will nuclear bomb Japan off the face of this Earth if they defend Taiwan...

The best thing you can do is buy cryptocurrency...
Every year more and more fiat currency is printed diluting your wealth...

░░░░░░░░░▄░░░░░░░░░░░░░░▄░░░░
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[couta1]

We have China for that... they have said they will nuclear bomb Japan off the face of this Earth if they defend Taiwan...

The best thing you can do is buy cryptocurrency...
Every year more and more fiat currency is printed diluting your wealth... Lol you turn every thread into a Crypto thread one way or another. Not everyone wants to purchase an electronic vapour.

[Gunner]

We have China for that... they have said they will nuclear bomb Japan off the face of this Earth if they defend Taiwan...

The best thing you can do is buy cryptocurrency...
Every year more and more fiat currency is printed diluting your wealth...

No China have not said that and any response would be led my America.

Dodgecoin ironically is just another fiat. There is no limit to how many coins they can magic out of thin air.

[101nick101]

No China have not said that and any response would be led my America.

Dodgecoin ironically is just another fiat. There is no limit to how many coins they can magic out of thin air.

Shiba Inu coin (aka the Dogecoin killer) is coming

[Biscuit]

..... Dodgecoin ironically is just another fiat. There is no limit to how many coins they can magic out of thin air.

Also, no limit to how many different crypo currencies can be created. Like all currencies, not a good store of wealth long term.

[Gunner]

Shiba Inu coin (aka the Dogecoin killer) is coming

Im more into Cumrocket. Yes that is crypto coin

[Balance]

Z Energy takeover - a sign of things to happen on NZX?

More takeovers in the offing?

Amazing with the lowest interest rates in history that more takeovers have not occured.

[iceman]

Agreed. It's a concern the lack of intelligent opposing media in this country. Why is the media so compliant. Why are not asking the tough questions like why is the vaccine rollout so slow, what % of vaccines will prevent lockdowns, what is the target date? Does Jacinda know or care about the economic impact? Are what point does the cost become too much? Lockdown until xmas?

Good post Gunner. I couldn't agree more. NZ is not in a good place and I seriously fear for our future.

[alokdhir]

Z Energy takeover - a sign of things to happen on NZX?

More takeovers in the offing?

Amazing with the lowest interest rates in history that more takeovers have not occured.


ATM is also in news on that topic ....Your thoughts ?

[Balance]

ATM is also in news on that topic ....Your thoughts ?

Possible but whoever is interested will wait until the results & commentary, and then there's the ever present China risk where with a stroke of the pen, the government there can wipe a company's fortunes by half. So if there is a takeover, most likely to be a China SOE imo.

Observation over the years is that takeovers are like profit downgrades and upgrades - something triggers one and others follow.

So I am certainly expecting more corporate activity - the investment bankers and lawyers will be salivating at the prospects!

[Crypto Crude]

Lol you turn every thread into a Crypto thread one way or another. Not everyone wants to purchase an electronic vapour.

Crypto is my life...
I'm all about it... and proud of it...
And doing very very well...
😊😃

[alokdhir]

Possible but whoever is interested will wait until the results & commentary, and then there's the ever present China risk where with a stroke of the pen, the government there can wipe a company's fortunes by half. So if there is a takeover, most likely to be a China SOE imo.

Agree ...thats what can be inferred from Media speculation also ...specifically that they will wait till results and with ATM going to court against Nestle that almost rules them out unless its hostile or very hostile bid ...lol

[Crypto Crude]

What's on your shopping list?
Well there you have it couta 😆🤣

[Balance]

Agree ...thats what can be inferred from Media speculation also ...specifically that they will wait till results and with ATM going to court against Nestle that almost rules them out unless its hostile or very hostile bid ...lol

Do not seem to be a lot of hostile takeovers done these days - usually quiet discussions behind the scenes and then, a strategically placed leak to the media to get things going if one party is recalcitrant about price or conditions.

Then, there are the desperadoes who attempt to talk up share prices with takeover talk - happens a lot in the old days but the media is a lot wiser these days and do not tend to publish such stories. Now you read them in social media!

[alokdhir]

Do not seem to be a lot of hostile takeovers done these days - usually quiet discussion behind the scenes and then, a strategically placed leak to the media to get things going if one party is recalcitrant about price or conditions.


IMHO all the stocks which morningstar has BUY rating are takeover targets ....they are the most conservative pricers of stocks ...their Buys make them super cheap .....ZEL , ATM etc ..:D

[Balance]

IMHO all the stocks which morningstar has BUY rating are takeover targets ....they are the most conservative pricers of stocks ...their Buys make them super cheap .....ZEL , ATM etc ..:D

The thing about takeover these days is that they do tend to happen rather quickly and the stock is placed on trading halt immediately.

So either you are there in the stock to participate or you miss out.

I certainly think ZEL takeover will make many potential sellers in this market take pause - bit of a bugger for those looking for super cheap bargains to emerge.

[alokdhir]

The thing about takeover these days is that they do tend to happen rather quickly and the stock is placed on trading halt immediately.

So either you are there in the stock to participate or you miss out.

I certainly this ZEL takeover will make many potential sellers in this market take pause - bit of a bugger for those looking for super cheap bargains to emerge.

TBF all got chance to buy into ZEL on media speculation ...now it turned out to be true ...will same happen for ATM ? W69 expects around $ 11 for ATM ...thats quite a gain from here ...

Rewards are much more then risks at this time ??

PS : U were right ...after ZEL confirmed ...sellers in ATM runaway at the moment !!

SKT is also on Morningstar Buy list !!

[Beagle]

Crypto is my life...
I'm all about it... and proud of it...
And doing very very well...
����

Please talk all you like about it, in a different and more appropriate thread.

[Getty]

Bit of a misnomer that Crypto, he's not secretive about his currency, he's as overt as can be.

[couta1]

What's on your shopping list?
Well there you have it couta 藍 Well apart from another pair of skis(Actually I have paid for a pair and they are on there way from a Toroedo 7 store in Auckland) FPH/PAZ/SPK other than that.

[Waltzing]

An eye doctor was stranded in QST made the papers at the weekend..

stranded on a ski trip apparently.

[couta1]

An eye doctor was stranded in QST made the papers at the weekend..

stranded on a ski trip apparently. Q/town Mayor quoted in the Herald saying that some weren't stranded because they chose to stay on so have broken the rules, newsflash Mr Mayor there was no rule saying you Must go back to your place of residence, besides you should be grateful we are still supporting your local economy.