Taiwan

[Sgt Pepper]

Assuming the the invasion and annexation of Taiwan may be close at hand have posters pondered this and if so what are the implications for the NZ Economy and the NZX in particular

[peat]

the big question is will the US and Japan step up to defend.
In some ways I hope not. Certainly the Japanese should be a bit wary. China has said it wont hold back.

So its more about whether its effectively WW3 or not. which is hard to envisage! but not impossible

Chip shortages will be the big deal. Taiwan is the semiconductor factory for the world!

[Balance]

There will be no war imo.

More a blockade of Taiwan until Taiwan backs down on its independence plans.

China is not going to win a conventional war against the Western alliance.

[Animeart]

I reckon China could possibly be shooting itself in the foot starting a war, so whether it can win or not better not be the only question in the people and the communist leader's mind.

[Sgt Pepper]

There will be no war imo.

More a blockade of Taiwan until Taiwan backs down on its independence plans.

China is not going to win a conventional war against the Western alliance.

I am not so sure

[peat]

I dont think we can deny things are heating up
and Ji is starting to behave more aggressively in other spheres as well as militarily.

But it could be all bluster and assertiveness.
You say they cant win against the Western alliance, but they may not need to. History doesnt show that defence treaties are always upheld when the brown stuff really starts to fly. Just ask Poland.

[Monarch]

imo china has little to gain from taking Taiwan and everything to loose. Much of China's economic rise has been fuelled by international trade, which I doubt will remain quite as sweet if war breaks out. Taking Taiwan itself has strategic value in terms of preventing a western bastion so close to Chinese shores etc, but much of it's value lies with its development and people. Taiwan is very fortified, it would be very hard to take it over militarily without damaging that precious development or killing some of that juicy highly educated workforce. Then there is the people itself, Taiwanese people have repeatedly shown they aren't interested in being governed by the CCP. Unless they force everyone to stay you might see mass emigration as western nations offer easy visas to steal that skilled workforce.

[Nor]

There will be no war imo.

More a blockade of Taiwan until Taiwan backs down on its independence plans.

China is not going to win a conventional war against the Western alliance.
Looked at the map once and expected to see big port facilities on the Pacific Ocean side of the island. But no.

[LoungeLizzard]

China built illegal militarised islands in the South China Sea and the world looked the other way. Turned Hong Kong into a police state - likewise. Put a million Uighurs in "re-education" camps - same. Hits any country that dares to criticise it, with illegal trade sanctions. Refuses to co-operate with World Health organisation trying to investigate the source of a virus that has killed 4.5m people. I could go on, and on. Is an invasion of Taiwan going to be the red line? If so, then the West needs to get organised quick. The incursions into Taiwans airspace are a softening up and a test of the West's resolve to back Taiwan. So far we continue to pretend that that an invasion couldn't happen, which is almost a guarantee that it will happen. The best way to stop China from doing the unthinkable is to assume that they are considering it and send a clear message of what the consequences would be - militarily and economically.

[greater fool]

So what's the NZX ticker code for Taiwan?
Maybe I could short it.

[Davexl]

China built illegal militarised islands in the South China Sea and the world looked the other way. Turned Hong Kong into a police state - likewise. Put a million Uighurs in "re-education" camps - same. Hits any country that dares to criticise it, with illegal trade sanctions. Refuses to co-operate with World Health organisation trying to investigate the source of a virus that has killed 4.5m people. I could go on, and on. Is an invasion of Taiwan going to be the red line? If so, then the West needs to get organised quick. The incursions into Taiwans airspace are a softening up and a test of the West's resolve to back Taiwan. So far we continue to pretend that that an invasion couldn't happen, which is almost a guarantee that it will happen. The best way to stop China from doing the unthinkable is to assume that they are considering it and send a clear message of what the consequences would be - militarily and economically.

A clear message: October 4th

U.S., U.K. Aircraft Carriers Drill with Japanese Big Deck Warship in the Western Pacific (even with Te Kaha lol)

https://news.usni.org/2021/10/04/u-s-u-k-aircraft-carriers-drill-with-japanese-big-deck-warship-in-the-western-pacific?utm_source=USNI+News&utm_campaign=ce8c1088ee-USNI_NEWS_DAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0dd4a1450b-ce8c1088ee-234966018&ct=t(USNI_NEWS_DAILY)&mc_cid=ce8c1088ee&mc_eid=cc0f71bf89

[LoungeLizzard]

A clear message: October 4th

U.S., U.K. Aircraft Carriers Drill with Japanese Big Deck Warship in the Western Pacific (even with Te Kaha lol)

https://news.usni.org/2021/10/04/u-s-u-k-aircraft-carriers-drill-with-japanese-big-deck-warship-in-the-western-pacific?utm_source=USNI+News&utm_campaign=ce8c1088ee-USNI_NEWS_DAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0dd4a1450b-ce8c1088ee-234966018&ct=t(USNI_NEWS_DAILY)&mc_cid=ce8c1088ee&mc_eid=cc0f71bf89

Given the gravity of what would happen if it all did kick off, I don't think the odd exercise in the Pacific constitutes a clear message. The US doesn't even even explicitly state that it would even defend Taiwan. China is repeatedly breaching Taiwanese airspace. THAT is a clear message of intent and should be met with a similar message - eg a US aircraft carrier based permanently in a Taiwanese dock. Deterrence is the best way to persuade China to reign in it's aggression.

[Brain]

China doesn’t want war. They know that they will dominate the world economically. The western world seems to be totally asleep and doesn’t comprehend the huge advances that China has made in the last 50 years or so and that will not slow down. They are a hard working intelligent population with a political system that can make good decisions for the majority of the population.

[greater fool]

........snip stuff................. incursions into Taiwans airspace are a softening up and a test of the West's resolve to back Taiwan...... snip more stuff..........


If you're going to declare an Air Defense Identification Zone that crosses the 12mile territorial line and encroaches well into
the land beyond, then, expect problems.


13048

[LoungeLizzard]

If you're going to declare an Air Defense Identification Zone that crosses the 12mile territorial line and encroaches well into
the land beyond, then, expect problems.


13048

So you'd be happy for Chinese warplanes to repeatedly fly by our 12 mile limit on a regular basis. Or the Russians to have war-games on their neighbours borders? And there has been instances where Chinese planes have crossed that line and have been documented by the Taiwanese airforce - which of course China denies.

[LoungeLizzard]

China doesn’t want war. They know that they will dominate the world economically. The western world seems to be totally asleep and doesn’t comprehend the huge advances that China has made in the last 50 years or so and that will not slow down. They are a hard working intelligent population with a political system that can make good decisions for the majority of the population.

China has said that it will take Taiwan by force if necessary. Isn't that proof that they will risk war?

[Jaa]

The surest way for any authoritarian regime to fall is to lose a war e.g. Argentina.

Especially so in China where the PLA is the party's money making operation not a conventional military and the loss of many families only child would mean the end of many family lines and thus internal instability aka revolution. So no way the CCP risks losing a war which against Taiwan and its allies it probably would. Just endless bluster and threats mostly for an internal audience.

Taiwan is an independent, free trading, democratic country of the type NZ helped form the United Nations to protect via collective security. Stand up to bullies, support Taiwan.

[Davexl]

The best time for China to strike Taiwan would be:

Short term
In the middle of a pandemic when the world would least expect it...
Before Western alliances have had sufficient exercises to develop interoperability...
Before a dramatically upgraded readiness status of Reserve forces is achieved in Taiwan

Medium term
Before the upgrade of Wake Island fallback point (from Guam, Okinawa) is completed
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/34404/big-airfield-expansion-on-wake-island-seen-by-satellite-as-u-s-preps-for-pacific-fight (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/34404/big-airfield-expansion-on-wake-island-seen-by-satellite-as-u-s-preps-for-pacific-fight)

Before the supply of F16 V's from recent Taiwan order submitted
The supply of Long range missile systems to Taiwan to strike China's hinterland (deterrence)

Longer term
Strategic backup builds from TSM level tech, of at least 2 major chip foundries ($10 bn each, 10 years) within US with Intel Corp
Strategic builds of both Light & Heavy Rare Earth processing capability in Australia and US by Lynas (LYC) in Aust.
Completion of AUKUS delivered, probably Virginia class subs ($4-5 bn, 2 years each to build)
Before US shipyards complete upgrades to enlarge number of Navy fleet combatants

[Muse]

The surest way for any authoritarian regime to fall is to lose a war e.g. Argentina.

Especially so in China where the PLA is the party's money making operation not a conventional military and the loss of many families only child would mean the end of many family lines and thus internal instability aka revolution. So no way the CCP risks losing a war which against Taiwan and its allies it probably would. Just endless bluster and threats mostly for an internal audience.

Taiwan is an independent, free trading, democratic country of the type NZ helped form the United Nations to protect via collective security. Stand up to bullies, support Taiwan.


Well said.

[LoungeLizzard]

The surest way for any authoritarian regime to fall is to lose a war e.g. Argentina.

Especially so in China where the PLA is the party's money making operation not a conventional military and the loss of many families only child would mean the end of many family lines and thus internal instability aka revolution. So no way the CCP risks losing a war which against Taiwan and its allies it probably would. Just endless bluster and threats mostly for an internal audience.

Taiwan is an independent, free trading, democratic country of the type NZ helped form the United Nations to protect via collective security. Stand up to bullies, support Taiwan.

I think China would press the button before losing a conventional war - and then we all lose. That is why I strongly feel that the best way to avoid an escalation towards the unthinkable is to stop trying to appease China. Have we learnt nothing from the past?

[Brain]

China has said that it will take Taiwan by force if necessary. Isn't that proof that they will risk war?
They will push the issue as far as they can but that will not be to the point of war. They know that they have a bright future and will not jeopardise that. They will look after their people.

[LoungeLizzard]

They will push the issue as far as they can but that will not be to the point of war. They know that they have a bright future and will not jeopardise that. They will look after their people.

Are you saying we should judge China on how they treat their own people? Jeez, we're in real trouble then...

[Animeart]

I won't write off a war in the South China Sea altogether, especially during Xi's reign. But what China will gain and lose after the war, regardless of the outcome, is up for debate.

Just for fun, one time traveller I came across on YT offered a very interesting insight. I'm not going to go into it, in case it upsets some people, so you better go find it yourself.

[Davexl]

Japan Making Moves to Deter Chinese Aggression, Panel Says

https://news.usni.org/2021/10/05/japan-making-moves-to-deter-chinese-aggression-panel-says?utm_source=USNI+News&utm_campaign=4679746a4a-USNI_NEWS_DAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0dd4a1450b-4679746a4a-234966018&ct=t%28USNI_NEWS_DAILY%29&mc_cid=4679746a4a&mc_eid=cc0f71bf89

(https://news.usni.org/2021/10/05/japan-making-moves-to-deter-chinese-aggression-panel-says?utm_source=USNI+News&utm_campaign=4679746a4a-USNI_NEWS_DAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0dd4a1450b-4679746a4a-234966018&ct=t%28USNI_NEWS_DAILY%29&mc_cid=4679746a4a&mc_eid=cc0f71bf89)"In Hudson’s online forum, Cronin said Japan’s white paper also marks changes in its maritime forces made possible by the introduction of advanced technologies into the Japan Self-Defense Forces, integrating air defense systems, the arrival of F-35B Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters, refitting helicopter destroyers to accommodate the F-35Bs and installing lithium batteries in its submarine force to give it greater range and stealth."

"While Taiwan has picked up the pace of professionalizing its forces, it still needs to look at how best to employ its reserves and improve continuity of government procedures to provide resilience in case of direct attack, the panelists agreed." (Alludes to my earlier comment on Taiwan's readiness) - Davexl


(https://news.usni.org/2021/10/05/japan-making-moves-to-deter-chinese-aggression-panel-says?utm_source=USNI+News&utm_campaign=4679746a4a-USNI_NEWS_DAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0dd4a1450b-4679746a4a-234966018&ct=t%28USNI_NEWS_DAILY%29&mc_cid=4679746a4a&mc_eid=cc0f71bf89)

[rimu75]

Despite the barrage of economic attacks such as the pineapple embargo and the relentless probing of Taiwan's no fly zone, the people in Taiwan live under no more threat than the past 20 years. The heating up of events in the South China seas seems to be related to China's growth and expansion getting international pushback. Taiwan wants to be recognized. We've done enough and have a stable democracy, elected government and a decent rule of law. Time for other nations to quietly recognize that without poking the bear too much. The more the international community panders to China's demands and holds China to a different standard, the harder it is to push back. China's sphere is large. Taiwan just wants a fair go at being a nation. But nobody wants a war. The status quo is possibly the only solution unless there's a groundswell of moral support from the global community.

[peat]

kind of scary that Japan sees its status inextricably linked with Taiwan.
To me that says they are prepared to go down in defense of Taiwan.
And China has said it will take Japan down mercilessly if it interferes.
Woah sounds gnarly.

Quite frankly and a bit contentiously I'm not quite sure why the West should defend Taiwan. Its an island of China ffs. Its got Han people on it hasnt it? Why wouldnt it belong to China?

Only reason I can think of is all the semi-conductors. How screwed would we be if China took Taiwan by force. And stopped selling us chips. (not crisps)

[mike2020]

kind of scary that Japan sees its status inextricably linked with Taiwan.
To me that says they are prepared to go down in defense of Taiwan.
And China has said it will take Japan down mercilessly if it interferes.
Woah sounds gnarly.

Quite frankly and a bit contentiously I'm not quite sure why the West should defend Taiwan. Its an island of China ffs. Its got Han people on it hasnt it? Why wouldnt it belong to China?

Only reason I can think of is all the semi-conductors. How screwed would we be if China took Taiwan by force. And stopped selling us chips. (not crisps)
I always thought that it belonged to China as well but after reading its history there is an indigenous people who have been there over 6000 years numbering under 3% of the population.

[Waltzing]

they cant just take the fabs and move them without huge disruption. They say they will blow the ports if invaded. Basically the companies need to move and quickly. If you want a flash point to whatch its the hot one at the moment for sure. The huge naval build up by europe and the region must look a bit pre WWII to the CCP. Once you start down the road of Moa's little book the hordes start shouting from the roof tops and the crowd goes wild. We all know how that has ended in history and has the human brain changed that much?

My history prof used to say that history Always repeats boy and girls, study thou roman history he would say.

[SPC]

I'm out. This investment sounds too risky for me. What was the ticket..TWN?

[Muse]

kind of scary that Japan sees its status inextricably linked with Taiwan.
To me that says they are prepared to go down in defense of Taiwan.
And China has said it will take Japan down mercilessly if it interferes.
Woah sounds gnarly.

Quite frankly and a bit contentiously I'm not quite sure why the West should defend Taiwan. Its an island of China ffs. Its got Han people on it hasnt it? Why wouldnt it belong to China?

Only reason I can think of is all the semi-conductors. How screwed would we be if China took Taiwan by force. And stopped selling us chips. (not crisps)

Taiwan is absolutely not an island of China. It has never for one day in its existence been governed by the communist party and has run is own independent government for the better part of 70 years. Yes there was a civil war - the nationalists in Taiwan used to control all of China - but saying it is a part of communist china is like saying mainland China is part of Taiwan.

Japan are looking at this strategicallyÂ…they dont so much care about taiwan as they do about building allies to blunt china as their aspirations spread to their islands

[Norwest]

There are two main reasons the CCP has absolutely zero chance.

1. The majority of their air force is copies of old Soviet Era Flanker Jets with some upgrades. Even though they have numbers, their Air Force is no match for a modern Western Air Force, they wouldn't even see most of the 5th generation fighters and bombers.
2. The Taiwan Straight, if this was a land border Taiwan wouldn't stand a chance.

At present, the CCP is all bluster and is doing everything they can to keep their internal populace subdued and ensuring that there isn't another civil uprising

The real problem is that in 10-20 years #1 might not be a problem with the way they are advancing, which in turn, makes #2 no problem at all. The CCP are going to play the long game on this. As much as people may dislike the CCP, there is a massive benefit to not having to think about a general election every 3 to 4 years and pandering to voters.

If they do eventually obtain the upper hand in the Air and Space domain then we should all be very, very worried as the CCP won't just stop at Taiwan.

[Waltzing]

"I'm out. This investment sounds too risky for me. What was the ticket..TWN?"

Classic.

Find something in Aus like are those solar farms going to make money or will the dust storms wipe them out or do they even have dust storms.

need to consult a weather expert. In fact any investment house that doesnt have a climate team is probably going to go bust.

The china Navy and Air force do have modern weapons under development such as modern radar and aircraft but are behind the US as they have yet to steal ALL the tech but are trying hard.

Luckily as everyone reading a web news site can see the nations around china are starting to try and stop the highly aggressive action of the CCP.

[Muse]

There are two main reasons the CCP has absolutely zero chance.

1. The majority of their air force is copies of old Soviet Era Flanker Jets with some upgrades. Even though they have numbers, their Air Force is no match for a modern Western Air Force, they wouldn't even see most of the 5th generation fighters and bombers.
2. The Taiwan Straight, if this was a land border Taiwan wouldn't stand a chance.

At present, the CCP is all bluster and is doing everything they can to keep their internal populace subdued and ensuring that there isn't another civil uprising

The real problem is that in 10-20 years #1 might not be a problem with the way they are advancing, which in turn, makes #2 no problem at all. The CCP are going to play the long game on this. As much as people may dislike the CCP, there is a massive benefit to not having to think about a general election every 3 to 4 years and pandering to voters.

If they do eventually obtain the upper hand in the Air and Space domain then we should all be very, very worried as the CCP won't just stop at Taiwan.

You are 100% right on your last point. After Taiwan there would be nothing stopping China from taking islands from Japan, charging levies on trade in the south china sea, taking territory off the Philippines, India, and Vietnam. and who knows...pesky old Australia i hear have some mighty fine iron ore mines.

China act like an enemy to so many but get so offended when people call them out.

[Waltzing]

"China act like an enemy to so many but get so offended when people call them out."

They are a huge economy that needs to keep it lights on and its factories exporting and its people consuming.

The best model for that to work is actually a dynamic model that winston churchill called the best one after all the others have failed in history.

It they start to fail the the CCP becomes the most dangerous player in the pacific and maybe the world. Who has supplied NK with it technologies because it looks like there may have been some information and technologies passed on to NK since the K War.

Russia doesnt mind how dangerous the NK situation becomes and stability in the region is to other players advantage.

The stakes have never been this high since the end of the Second world war and the are only going to go up.

[Panda-NZ-]

The best time for China to strike Taiwan would be:


With trump in charge, but during the transition period to president Biden. Thankfully it didn't happen.

[Balance]

Taiwan is absolutely not an island of China. It has never for one day in its existence been governed by the communist party and has run is own independent government for the better part of 70 years. Yes there was a civil war - the nationalists in Taiwan used to control all of China - but saying it is a part of communist china is like saying mainland China is part of Taiwan.

Japan are looking at this strategicallyÂ…they dont so much care about taiwan as they do about building allies to blunt china as their aspirations spread to their islands

Actually, ROC (Republic of China government) saw itself as the legitimate government of the whole of China when it relocated and then, set up its administration in Taiwan in 1949 after losing the civil war to the PRC (People Republic of China government). Taiwan was referred to as a province of China by the ROC. ROC only removed the reference of Taiwan as a province of China in 2017. PRC of course never recognized that removal.

As for Japan, history would record that Japan humiliated China & took control of Taiwan from the Chinese in 1895 and only ceded control back to the Chinese after losing WW2. Similar to how the British took control of Hong Kong in perpertuity as a colony in 1842 & 1860. The British then took control of Kowloon in 1898 and promised under treaty to hand it back to China in 1997. The British had no choice but to hand Hong Kong along with Kowloon back to the Chinese because HK cannot survive without Kowloon and China supplying the basic essentials of life to HK.

Having visited China a number of times, it is clear talking to the Chinese people that there is absolutely zero love in China for the Japanese due to the atrocities committed by the Japanese during WW2 and their brutal occupation of China. In fact, I would say that there's deep loathing, undiminished hatred and total mistrust of the Japanese so Japan will be playing into China's hand if it interferes in Taiwan.

Net net, China will exact revenge one day when it is ready on Japan.

That day is still at least 10 years away however imo.

[Muse]

Actually, ROC (Republic of China government) saw itself as the legitimate government of the whole of China when it relocated and then, set up its administration in Taiwan in 1949 after losing the civil war to the PRC (People Republic of China government). Taiwan was referred to as a province of China by the ROC. ROC only removed the reference of Taiwan as a province of China in 2017. PRC of course never recognized that removal.

As for Japan, history would record that Japan humiliated China & took control of Taiwan from the Chinese in 1895 and only ceded control back to the Chinese after losing WW2. Similar to how the British took control of Hong Kong in perpertuity as a colony in 1842 & 1860. The British then took control of Kowloon in 1898 and promised under treaty to hand it back to China in 1997. The British had no choice but to hand Hong Kong along with Kowloon back to the Chinese because HK cannot survive without Kowloon and China supplying the basic essentials of life to HK.

Having visited China a number of times, it is clear talking to the Chinese people that there is absolutely zero love in China for the Japanese due to the atrocities committed by the Japanese during WW2 and their brutal occupation of China. In fact, I would say that there's deep loathing, undiminished hatred and total mistrust of the Japanese so Japan will be playing into China's hand if it interferes in Taiwan.

Net net, China will exact revenge one day when it is ready on Japan.

That day is still at least 10 years away however imo.

aye - and taiwan actually had dreams of retaking the mainland and for pride reasons saw themselves as the legimate government. however - for all intents & purposes - they realised that was a pipe dream within a decade after the civil war and the two have been separate countries for 70 years. and i stand by the statement that it is as rediculous for china to claim taiwan is part of china as it is for taiwan to claim china is part of taiwan.

as crystal ball gazing the interesting thing is perhaps taiwan and its allies will have a very good idea of when it may happen in terms of months (but not years), as the build up will be more than evident and due to seasonal fluctations any invasion would be narrowed to a handful of months:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-with-china/

China hates japan. for sure. Japan doesn't really care about taiwan - they just know they have a target on their back. Better for taiwan to catch the bullet and buddy up with an international alliance

[Waltzing]

Since your all followers of the Qin Kingdom you will all perhaps have noticed that the current peasant and middle classes did not attend the movies put on by the CCP in commemoration. Not long after that the curtain came down on daily non conformist life in the villages and business and the old new Moa movement began. Its got to be only the beginning and the CCP may now be busy controlling its population into a state of total submission.

There will be no free thought in china and in technology you will only be allowed to develop what your told to work on. Musk has already sent everyday humans into space leaving all those Soviet China era space technologies rusting on their launch pads.

In 10 years the Japanese will have technologies that will allow it easily compete with china on a military footing including it own stealth aircraft. It and SK already have very capable MBT's. The race now is for the new Bow and Arrow, the hypersonic vehicles of the sky's.

Dont under estimate the Japanese when it comes to tech. You will remember it was an english aviator that help them develop their first torpedo bombers. But the tech industry is truly astounding in the field of robotics and still making progress.

[greater fool]

There are two main reasons the CCP has absolutely zero chance.

1. The majority of their air force is copies of old Soviet Era Flanker Jets with some upgrades. Even though they have numbers, their Air Force is no match for a modern Western Air Force, they wouldn't even see most of the 5th generation fighters and bombers.
2. The Taiwan Straight, if this was a land border Taiwan wouldn't stand a chance.

At present, the CCP is all bluster and is doing everything they can to keep their internal populace subdued and ensuring that there isn't another civil uprising

The real problem is that in 10-20 years #1 might not be a problem with the way they are advancing, which in turn, makes #2 no problem at all. The CCP are going to play the long game on this. As much as people may dislike the CCP, there is a massive benefit to not having to think about a general election every 3 to 4 years and pandering to voters.

If they do eventually obtain the upper hand in the Air and Space domain then we should all be very, very worried as the CCP won't just stop at Taiwan.

https://asiatimes.com/2021/10/j-20-stealth-fighter-thrills-crowds-at-airshow-china/

"If there was any doubt that China’s J-20 stealth aircraft is a capable match for its US counterpart, the F-22 Raptor, those doubts were blown away this week at Airshow China 2021"

[Beagle]

Sell Taiwan a bunch of these. Turn up the volume and enjoy what the mighty F22 can do https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCb_XbmB_iE

[Waltzing]

The tooling is in mothballs for the f22 and probably some of it was lost. Remember the tooling for the blackbird was ordered to be destroyed by Robert McNamara. What a stupid idiot because though there was not need of a super fast interceptor. Turns out there is a rumour that one of the skunk works is trying to model a new version for even faster flight.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_SR-71_Blackbird

[Panda-NZ-]

Boys 'n their toys

Simply need an engineered bioweapon or nuke.

US should secretly give taiwan nukes and then do a surprise announcement.

[bottomfeeder]

Many people would die, and the conflict would escalate to the greater Pacific. The cost to rebuild infrastructure would be horrific. China would be foolish to start a large war. But I believe they are provoking Taiwan to shoot down a few planes.

[ananda77]

13051

...how dare the Chinese build their country so close to our military bases

[Balance]

Sell Taiwan a bunch of these. Turn up the volume and enjoy what the mighty F22 can do https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCb_XbmB_iE

Nothing like fermenting a potential conflict to juice up the excitement of the US armaments complex? Think of the billions of dollars of sales waiting to be made!!!

[Muse]

The WSJ just broke the news that America has secretly had a small group of special forces in Taiwan for the last year to train the Taiwanese. China is pissed.

Getting hot fast!

Last night I watched on youtube By Dawn’s Early light. Today shall be Countdown to Looking Glass. Both awesome 1980s nuclear war movies - even sends a chill up this brave keyboard warriors spine.

[Waltzing]

Buy Boeing..get travel and toy exposure.

[Balance]

The WSJ just broke the news that America has secretly had a small group of special forces in Taiwan for the last year to train the Taiwanese. China is pissed.

Getting hot fast!

Last night I watched on youtube By Dawn’s Early light. Today shall be Countdown to Looking Glass. Both awesome 1980s nuclear war movies - even sends a chill up this brave keyboard warriors spine.

China should take a chill pill. US sent tens of thousands of its troops into Afghanistan & Iraq - and achieved nothing.

[Beagle]

Nothing like fermenting a potential conflict to juice up the excitement of the US armaments complex? Think of the billions of dollars of sales waiting to be made!!!

Yes....Raytheon on a forward PE of just 20 looks like a good bet https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/RAYTHEON-TECHNOLOGIES-COR-4840/financials/
While a bunch of F22's will help what they really need is huge numbers of small tactical nukes to repel the ships bringing hundreds of thousands of troops.

[Balance]

Yes....Raytheon on a forward PE of just 20 looks like a good bet https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/RAYTHEON-TECHNOLOGIES-COR-4840/financials/
While a bunch of F22's will help what they really need is huge numbers of small tactical nukes to repel the ships bringing hundreds of thousands of troops.

One sector I stay well clear of - blood on the hand and that kind of stuff.

[mikelee]

What about Rakon? I bet they're in the military hardware supply chain too.

[Waltzing]

Software companies for tech in aircraft industries in the US. The software doesnt always come from the air frame maker.

[peat]

my view is that even with outdated hardware China could thoroughly test the West's real will to alliance and support of Taiwan.
I am somewhat dubious the West would risk all that much. No one knows, just my view ....

Probably, you're right Nor West, that it will be the long game. But it shouldnt be relied on either

[Beagle]

One sector I stay well clear of - blood on the hand and that kind of stuff.

I do too, just pulling your leg with that suggestion ;)

[peat]

but also in response to the view that Taiwan is not part of China
all I say is look at a map.
this map for instance showing the continental shelf that shows Taiwan is connected to the Chinese land mass as part of that shelf.
13052

[Animeart]

Depends on how old the map is you'll find that most countries were part of the same land mass at some point in time. So the fact that Taiwan had been "politically" separated for more than half a century should probably have a greater relevance.

[peat]

Depends on how old the map is you'll find that most countries were part of the same land mass at some point in time. So the fact that Taiwan had been "politically" separated for more than half a century should probably have a greater relevance.

I'm talking more geo politically. Because in my view that is very important. Think Ukraine and Russia. No way they wanna lose control of their barrier! For West to have strategic control of Taiwan is very threatening to China and so they want it back! It could be China's barrier to some extent.

[Waltzing]

"blood on the hand and that kind of stuff."

drones make it very hard to buy the toys and feel your not profiting from it.

Off topic...

but NZ probably should have played a smarter game on trade by trying out some european electric sub and playing about with those english corvettes.

that way even if you dont buy you will get a trade meeting. Also send a team that speaks fluent european languages not Taranaki flat slur..

If you turn up and say Ga Da Mate they will think your ordering something from the dinner menu..

The trade minister flying through london on to europe without pre arranged meetings just lets you know how out of touch the current generation of ILSP (Iwi Labour South Pacific) party politician is with europe.

Better start teaching french again which helps with learning english.

NZ has plenty of asian language speakers but probably not a lot of european language speakers in government departments which are now multi cultural south pacific. The trouble is south pacific does not cut it for GDP export trade.

Asia and Europe.

[Akane]

Last I heard China don't even have the coals to power their power station, citizens have to eat their dinner in the dark, and now they're still prioritising world domination above all? This is going to be interesting......

[Waltzing]

"This is going to be interesting"

CNBC last night "Joe" was saying wait till it hits the US.

no Tick Tok ... no charging your phone unless you have little solar pack.. got one but havnt tried it yet.

[whatsup]

but also in response to the view that Taiwan is not part of China
all I say is look at a map.
this map for instance showing the continental shelf that shows Taiwan is connected to the Chinese land mass as part of that shelf.
13052

With that arguement so is N & S Korea and Japan !!

[peat]

With that arguement so is N & S Korea and Japan !!

I wouldnt think so! None of Korea is an island and Japan is Clearly from different origins!

Breaking News: US Nuclear Sub has had an accident in the South China Sea

[Balance]

I wouldnt think so! None of Korea is an island and Japan is Clearly from different origins!

Breaking News: US Nuclear Sub has had an accident in the South China Sea

Sub hit an unexpected and unidentified object. Hope it’s not a new China invisible weapon!

[Beagle]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10070421/US-attack-submarine-collides-unknown-object-South-China-Sea-amid-tension-Beijing.html

[mike2020]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10070421/US-attack-submarine-collides-unknown-object-South-China-Sea-amid-tension-Beijing.html

I wonder if anyone spell checks things anymore.

Also, how is an attack sub in the south china sea not provocation? If there were Russian subs off the eastern seaboard of USA or heaven forbid some nukes planted in Cuba...

[mike2020]

Also that was nearly a week ago

[Panda-NZ-]

Undersea drones will be more effective than subs, particualy when australia has theirs delivered.

My money is on 20 undersea drones for the same price as 1 attack submarine in 2040.

[Beagle]

I think this thread needs to be moved into the off market section.

I for one have little interest in debating military matters and sabre ratting...its above my pay grade and there's nothing I can do about it.

What history tells us is that if everyone appeases tyrannical dictators, (Hitler just one example) it doesn't end well for anyone.

[Panda-NZ-]

NZ can make our own underwater drones... throw out the oxygen support and whatever else a flawed human operator would need then start again.

Then sell them to the world or use them for ocean cleanup.

[rimu75]

I'd say there is relevance to the markets with regards to Taiwan. If New Zealand wants unfettered access to China markets they need to bend the knee; Look the other way when things get uncomfortable morally and politically. That hurts New Zealand's image. It's bad PR for the nation. There may be economic sides to choose in the future if Taiwan is pushed around the international political chessboard.

The fact that the fate of the 23 million people in Taiwan is an unspoken outcome of what may come scares me. Like they say: a single death is a tragedy, a million deaths a statistic.

Happy Double Ten.

[Muse]

I'd say there is relevance to the markets with regards to Taiwan. If New Zealand wants unfettered access to China markets they need to bend the knee; Look the other way when things get uncomfortable morally and politically. That hurts New Zealand's image. It's bad PR for the nation. There may be economic sides to choose in the future if Taiwan is pushed around the international political chessboard.

The fact that the fate of the 23 million people in Taiwan is an unspoken outcome of what may come scares me. Like they say: a single death is a tragedy, a million deaths a statistic.

Happy Double Ten.

Useful info for those who want to adjust their portfolio to long on war and to short peace & stability. Might tuck some cigarette and dirty coal stocks in it too.

[Davexl]

Taiwan's national day tomorrow - Sunday, could see some MORE sabre rattling from China...

Today' speeches by Xi, and tomorrows by Tsai Ing-wen could make for interesting reading...

[greater fool]

If you're going to declare an Air Defense Identification Zone that crosses the 12mile territorial line and encroaches well into
the land beyond, then, expect problems.


13048


https://asiatimes.com/2021/10/chinas-taiwan-incursions-are-more-sound-than-fury/


"A glance at the graphics released by Taipei’s MOD, and at a map, shows that the majority of the flights stayed well over 160 kilometers south of Taiwan. Even so, and even at this distant range, the Chinese flights were “intruding” into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone, or ADIZ."


"According to the Convention on International Aviation, a state “has complete and exclusive sovereignty over the airspace above its territory.” That means airspace directly above its land and its territorial waters, which extend 12 nautical miles (22 kilometers) from its coastline.

An ADIZ is an entirely different matter. Declared unilaterally, an ADIZ, in which a state requires aircraft to identify themselves, is not governed or enforced by any international law. Taiwan’s ADIZ covers far more than the air space above its land or even its outlying islands: It overlays the entire Taiwan Strait and large chunks of southern China.

“There is a substantial difference,” between an ADIZ and air space said Newsham. “Flying down towards the southern end of ADIZ is not the same as flying closer to Formosa (Taiwan). And that’s why I tend to see this particular incident as a ‘demonstration.’
“Taiwan’s ADIZ is enormous – its stretches over 1000 miles of sea space – so there is an element of hyperbole in the statements from the Taiwan MOD,” added Neill. “Most of these patrols show patterns – they are patrolling across key strategic air corridors which would be part of a campaign to deter the US from intervening.”"

[Davexl]

Taiwan won't be forced to bow to China, president sayshttps://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-wont-be-forced-bow-china-president-says-2021-10-10/

[Animeart]

The billionaire president can't say anything else if her party wants to stay in power comes next election lol.

[Balance]

https://www.reuters.com/technology/united-states-has-lost-ai-battle-china-pentagons-ex-software-chief-says-2021-10-11/

Next WW will be fought & won using AI.

Imagine hundreds of thousands of smart drones, each carrying a bomblet, raining down on enemy army - seeking each out & exploding in their face.

[Davexl]

Thought provoking comments, effects and alluding to timing...

Wall Street thinks China will never invade Taiwan - but don’t bet on it

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/wall-street-thinks-china-will-never-invade-taiwan-but-don-t-bet-on-it-20211025-p592qn.html (https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/wall-street-thinks-china-will-never-invade-taiwan-but-don-t-bet-on-it-20211025-p592qn.html)

[Davexl]

2027 Taiwan?

China Has World’s Largest Navy With 355 Ships and Counting, Says Pentagonhttps://news.usni.org/2021/11/03/china-has-worlds-largest-navy-with-355-ships-and-counting-says-pentagon?utm_source=USNI+News&utm_campaign=4ed68d4a84-USNI_NEWS_DAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0dd4a1450b-4ed68d4a84-234966018&ct=t%28USNI_NEWS_DAILY%29&mc_cid=4ed68d4a84&mc_eid=cc0f71bf89

[mikelee]

Might as well put those surplus steel to good use huh, now that they've stopped building sky scrappers. :p