MAY - Melbana Energy

[younga]

MAY - oil explorer drilling at the moment in Cuba. Over 600m of oil shows flowing to the surface...yet to be wire logged. Market cap about 70 mill. Owns 30% of the well. Pit yr chips in. I'm in the options, ex at 3.5

[Paddie]

Picked up some heads at .019c and options at .009c. Results look promising, wire logging to confirm the significance of the oil shows.

[younga]

@Paddie....heads at .019.....u r laughing now. I bought most of mine when they announced so I paid too much for the options....been averaging down so damage not so bad. I got into NWE options at 1.1 when they announced and thought MAY would take a similar path but hasn't. Time will tell

[Paddie]

Next week should be a big week for both companies. Hopefully the remedial work on the well for NWE will be successful and completed and flow testing commenced. For MAY, we should get the wire line logging results for the upper section. Success will lead to a rerating for both of these two companies.

[younga]

I hope so....any other companies that look good @paddie?

[JBmurc]

Yes was planning on getting a few MAY shares .... Big targets in a Bullish Energy future ..

[JBmurc]

In today with 2.5mill Shares/opts

[Paddie]

I hope so....any other companies that look good @paddie?

Elixir Energy (EXR). Australian CBM explorer in Mongolia and has a 30,000km2 license area. Four sub basins discovered, independently verified prospective resource of 14.6Tcf. They have a very strong management team including Richard Cottee, and currently have 3 rigs drilling flat out. From memory around 9 out of 11 drills so far have been successful. Still a lot of upside left.

[younga]

@paddie...was in them at 4 cents...out at 24...went bk in at 26 about 3 months ago and sold for 23 at a loss....now they take off. Also have a couple K in tpd. Do U know anything about xam.. copper in Mongolia? Bought some DLC recently for its uranium at 1.3

[Paddie]

@paddie...was in them at 4 cents...out at 24...went bk in at 26 about 3 months ago and sold for 23 at a loss....now they take off. Also have a couple K in tpd. Do U know anything about xam.. copper in Mongolia? Bought some DLC recently for its uranium at 1.3

I don't know anything about XAM. I hold MEU which has good uranium acreage which has been on the back burner, but with uranium prices taking off it is being revisited again.

[JBmurc]

Should well get an update today going from last couple of Tuesday exploration updates ... which have been very positive.... if the same again today surely we will blow past 3c

[JBmurc]

Looking good for an Oil discovery in the upper zone ... now what lies deeper .. good BUYing here IMHO

[younga]

Can't believe this hasn't taken off. I hope it doesn't mean something sinister but then maybe the well is in Cuba.

[JBmurc]

Can't believe this hasn't taken off. I hope it doesn't mean something sinister but then maybe the well is in Cuba.

I just think the market sentiment for the sector is woeful...isn’t giving much weight to the buying pressure .. another holding TEG has a negative EV ... just shipped 108000bbls oil 78% interest .... 10mill in revenue.. 2p reserve sees least 7 more shipments ...hearing talk around major offshore Farm-in ... SP weak ... but I just keep buying ...

MAY Ann’s so very positive... great hold as Oil has got legs to move much higher

[nztx]

I just think the market sentiment for the sector is woeful...isn’t giving much weight to the buying pressure .. another holding TEG has a negative EV ... just shipped 108000bbls oil 78% interest .... 10mill in revenue.. 2p reserve sees least 7 more shipments ...hearing talk around major offshore Farm-in ... SP weak ... but I just keep buying ...

MAY Ann’s so very positive... great hold as Oil has got legs to move much higher

Good points JB .. sentiment for the O&G sector seems fairly awful as you point out

[JBmurc]

Good points JB .. sentiment for the O&G sector seems fairly awful as you point out

Yes there is always MICRO and MACRO factors at play ...so many blame companies for their SP not catching a BID while forgetting to look across the whole MACRO issues

Demand for O&G will only increase from here as the world moves on from COVID with far more HUMANs that pre COVID .... today another 154,400 humans added to the planet..
So much easy money floating about ... so many constraints on freight ...when it all gets flowing again personal I think Oil will surge north of $100bbl USD during 2022 ...

Bloomberg says that big oil majors are not investing it into future production.

Here’s a snippet…
‘Chevron is perhaps the best example of a company turning away from the punch bowl.
‘The California-based oil giant generated the most free cash flow in its 142-year history during the third quarter but intends to keep capital spending 20 per cent below pre-Covid levels next year while increasing share buybacks.
‘Its 2022 capital budget will come in at the low end of its $US15 billion to $US17 billion range, according to chief financial officer Pierre Breber, some 60 per cent below 2014 levels.’...


And present Big Oil's free cash flow combined are seen higher than during $100 crude in 2014 some 30 billion USD !!!!

[younga]

Nice to see the options jump past 0.8....been in here since October last year with an average of 1 cents...taken longer to get going but hopefully we won't need to look bk. Anyone in PCL? I got the 4 oilers at the moment... Nwe, pcl, may and one I can't mention ;-)

[Paddie]

MAY going off this morning, heads just hit 3.3c. Next week should be good for MAY with further results due.

[younga]

Sold some options at 1.5 to pay for my AUH....investing with debt...not recommended.

[younga]

That should read 1.3

[younga]

And bought some more at 1.3....will be turning them over daily until they hit :-/

[Paddie]

MAY going off again today up 46% currently after finding a "Gross oil interval of 500mMD (~450mTVD) in the N structure, accompanied by high gas pressure"

[nztx]

MAY off like a rat up a drain pole .. that really lit the fuse and the main target still yet to be reached, if not wrong :)



6.6¢ - Change + 0.029(+ 78.4%)

[Paddie]

You are on to it nztx, an outstanding day for MAY holders. The main target is next for the well, followed by the Zapato well. This well is really shaping up to be something exceptional.

[nztx]

The Pump & Dumpsters and Daytrader crews have been in (up to 7.8c) and she's still
sitting at 6.9c - now 7.0 on Chi-X - could be interesting looking forwards :)

[younga]

All smiles....up and up......thought I got it wrong when I bought in at 1.3 when there were oil shows and then the price went to 0.7. Had a $350k day and a $200k day...and there is another well to drill. I would say sell but I think it's buy more.....Got into tmk today

[younga]

Pull-back today. Holding forever....Got some money in TMK....had to chase it up to 1.1. Drilling in Mongolia.....hopefully as successful as exr. Market cap about 12mill and it holds 66% of the well....other holder is TPD.

[Watchful]

Onya’ Jb, well earned.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on here freely, I should obviously pay more attention!

[JBmurc]

Someone is enjoying deleting my posts ... is some sad people around ...can't handle JBmurc making $$$$$$$$ LOL

[JBmurc]

I thinking we will open on Monday into a "Trading Halt" with an updated resource assessment of the Upper Sheets.... where seen a Great Oil interval and high Gas pressures ....

[nztx]

I thinking we will open on Monday into a "Trading Halt" with an updated resource assessment of the Upper Sheets.... where seen a Great Oil interval and high Gas pressures ....


Very possible, or Tuesday as some on HC have suggested.

Could be an interesting week ahead :)

[JBmurc]

Very possible, or Tuesday as some on HC have suggested.

Could be an interesting week ahead :)

Yes TH Monday ... news Tuesday is my pick then within couple weeks the same ... some of the BIG 2-3mill purchases I was watching go through last couple hours ... very exciting ..15c my retirement target ...yet I think it could well double that if they have hit the upper target range and we see re-rate of the whole BLOCK-9 with several more potential drill sites ... Billion barrel etc

[younga]

Hell, once in a lifetime opportunity.....and I'm not all in. Should I...

[nztx]

An interesting Reddit posting on MAY here (from 6 months ago) -

https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/p09kmf/melbana_energy_may_a_hybrid_mix_of_ivz_brk/

probably among better I have seen, with maps, diagrams and an interesting summary

Block 9 with Alameda / Zapato drill sites & prospects are not all these guys have

It looks like MAY were early entrants into Cuba in 2015, so got to secure pretty good prospects,
established good connections with Cuba National Oil & Cuban Authorities.

They have further interests in addition to Block 9 -

Santa Cruz (offshore) Cuba 100%

Beehive Royalty - potential payments

Ongoing Royalty / Residuals in Aust permit interests sold on AC/P50 & AC/P51

Turtle & Barnett (100%) prospects (next to Beehive permits etc sold)

Tassle Shoal Projects (100%) Aust


In the time since, there have been further announcements by MAY on ASX
and of course OIL has risen, and Drilling has gone into high gear.

At the time the Reddit user posted the article, it looks like SP was around AU 2.0 c

Without seeking to ramp things - the possible future value (if Alameda proves to 3/3)
just on Block 9 looks fairly interesting in the very least to current SP levels :)


JB - 15c may be a bit short of where this ultimately could go - who knows :)


Discl: Happy Camper

[nztx]

8.0 c broken this arbo on CHI-x - now 8.3c

Houston - this rocket is lifting off :)

[Paddie]

Looks like a strong finish to the day? Trading halt tomorrow? Very exciting as a holder.

[nztx]

Tuesday Big Reveal Day is here ? :)

[Paddie]

I certainly had expectations of an announcement this morning. I am surprised that the results are taking so long.

[nztx]

A bit of a pre TH tree shake & profit taking by the looks of things

Have to expect these things when most others are in the red & MAY is one
of the exceptions

I see someone suggested News from Cuba usually an ASX afternoon job

[Paddie]

I am not so sure about the afternoon announcements? The last few have come out within a few minutes of the market opening, we will see in time but I would certainly a TH before the weekend. It has been a good run of late and I am not fazed at all by a down day today.

[nztx]

Something must be up & an Announcement due soon when the Tree Shakers and Daytraders
are bashing the SP up and down by 0.005c in continuous 20 or so min intervals :)

Interesting on HC to see delayed ASX high, CHI live in the dip then rising again
lots of fluctuation from 7.0c through to 7.5c

North of 113 m Vol through so far

Higher Lows and the hefty Vol must say something ? :)

Good opportunities to load up in the troughs IMO

Looks like nothing from MAY today.

Perhaps tomorrow they will wheel out the Piano, Cuban Singer and give us an Announcement ? :)

[Sous87]

Awesome news, glad I bought a ticket for the show

[CAM]

Any comments on the latest?

disc... hold a little bit

[Sous87]

I’m a complete novice but my interpretation of the latest announcement is it’s a big deal. Sounds like it exceeds expectations. I think it’s going to be a big year for MAY.
Disc- I hold some, and bought more yesterday.

[nztx]

8.6c close - a good announcement from drilling the lower level of Alameda could leave rubber on the tarmac IMO :)

If it's really good or exceptional - who knows .. MAY be off the wall ? :)


Congrats to those who jumped in last week at 5.0c / 5.5c

[Paddie]

Its an exciting time to be a MAY holder. I brought in to the heads at 1.9c so I am sitting on a nice profit. This has a way to run yet with drilling now in to the primary target. The next few weeks will be interesting with a further rerate looking highly likely.

[CAM]

Yeah. I am just back to looking at investing again after a long time on the sidelines (life!) and threw a couple of grand at this after reading the threads etc.

Was expecting JBMurc to comment by now but see he has been banned - probably upset some creampuffs feelings.
I hope he comes back because he has some good insights.....although if this takes off then he might be retiring soon...haha.

There used to be someone else years ago that I followed - Oiler?? - he followed the well drilling programmes and made some punts based on that. Was fun.

[nztx]

up to 9.0c today before another tree shake

haven't looked at volumes in the shake, but many holders must be becoming more
resistant to selling / wanting to hold ahead of coming announcements IMO

[younga]

Managed to buy more at the top. I'm getting better with practice ....buy high sell low...The Ukraine war has given me lots of opportunities. May we strike more oil (:-)

[Sous87]

My ASP is a touch over 7c but hopeful I’ll be happy with that buy in price in 6-12 months time.

[nztx]

ASX Announcement 3 Mar 2022:

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02495190-3A589038?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Strong Oil & Gas shows encountered within the I Structure

[CAM]

Managed to buy more at the top. I'm getting better with practice ....buy high sell low...The Ukraine war has given me lots of opportunities. May we strike more oil (:-)

You may have missed your opportunity to sell low.... better luck next time :)

[nztx]

10.0c on CHI-x ; 9.9c ASX (20 min delay) currently :)

[younga]

Happy, happy...7 bagger for me....heard there's a lot more to come.

[Sous87]

Congratulations younga.
Something about MAY right now that is much more exciting than the rest of my portfolio haha

[nztx]

Interesting trading today - down to below 9.0 suggestedly on news of a fire
outside a Nuke plant in Ukraine - probably a few km down the road, but who
knows.. MAY seems to be rebounding again - 9.8c / 9.9 currently

Certainly must have allowed a few entry or top up points for holders along the way
at lower SP levels, and shaken out a few nervous holders too :)

Congrats younga & JBMerc - thanks JB for the heads up on this one, look forward
to your return and further views / contributions here..

[nztx]

Investor Webinar 9 Mar 2022 (at short notice)

Time for a Big Announcement ?

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02496233-3A589271?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

[CAM]

I would expect to see a Trading Halt and market announcement before then if its price sensitive.... maybe they have the champagne on ice?

[nztx]

It looks close to a 11.3c / 11.5c close (+ 22% / 25.0%) for the day

[Sous87]

Yep big finish - 25% up today. Some huge investments bought towards the end.

Should be an even bigger 24-48 hours for MAY. Fingers crossed.

[nztx]

Up to highs of 12.8c on CHI-x ; 13.0c on ASX - then down to 11.5c start ahead of tomorrow's instalment
of updates

[nztx]

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02497170-3A589426?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Hydrocarbon influx into Wellbore

[Paddie]

Alameda is turning out to be and outstanding well. 15c on the cards today?

[nztx]

Alameda is turning out to be and outstanding well. 15c on the cards today?


14.0c already on CHI-x

[Sous87]

Is it wrong to want to buy even more at 15c?

[nztx]

Is it wrong to want to buy even more at 15c?


depends on where you think this might go IMO :)

from 5.5c in the dip to 14.0c in space of 2 weeks

it's volatile & there is a wealth of info on HC & other sites
but DYOR before jumping

Unprecedented high O&G prices may linger for some years
with a world clambering for alternative supplies away from Russia

Zapato is still to come + how many more wells ?

[Paddie]

Plenty of room left for this to run IMO. This well is exceeding expectations and Zapato next to be drilled so there is still lots ahead of MAY.

[Sous87]

That’s the thing, it feels like May is just getting warmed up, and the value of the find hasn’t been accounted for yet. Let alone Zapato?

[younga]

See the shares dropped bk ...more increases to come

[nztx]

12.5c / 13.3c range so far today

[nztx]

A solid finish at 14.0 today ahead of next announcement

[JBmurc]

Much more to come guys I'm thinking 20c on decent primary target results ... might take a few of the table if it goes really well

[JBmurc]

Placement .....talk of 11c gutted if it is to the weak hand insto's,sohps,pros that pretty much dump asap for quick buck

[Sous87]

Seems odd considering the comments in the webinar, but I am hoping by the end of this week it will be small talk compared to a positive announcement.

[nztx]

But wait there's more - just released

Independent Resource Assessment - Upper Sheet

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02498622-3A589705?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

[Sous87]

2.6 Billion barrels in the upper? … holy smokes

[ordop]

It makes the placement news even more galling really. I mean, release the IR Assessment first ffs which was already on the radar and positive, then do the placement at north of 12c after the news has bedded down. It smells bad to shareholders and of lining certain pockets even though the assessment news is great.
The placement was done at 12c while the sp was 14c, it was done when the sp was at 14c in halt with huge news. Absolutely no risk and all reward for the lucky few.

[nztx]

It makes the placement news even more galling really. I mean, release the IR Assessment first ffs which was already on the radar and positive, then do the placement at north of 12c after the news has bedded down. It smells bad to shareholders and of lining certain pockets even though the assessment news is great.
The placement was done at 12c while the sp was 14c, it was done when the sp was at 14c in halt with huge news. Absolutely no risk and all reward for the lucky few.


I don't view the Cap Placement as negative, but enhancing / accelerating towards production
commercialisation ..

MAY are perfectly placed to run hard ahead in a storm of prevailing headwinds

What is there not to like about what MAY are doing ?

The SP has leaped from early Jan 2022 2c to 14c last close with an avalanche
of further favourable announcements likely on the way.. :)

[ordop]

Totally agree with your commentary, the placement isn't company negative and they are now perfectly placed...and yes the appreciation since Jan has been non stop.
My observation is more around the timing of the placement. The placement is being conducted on a listed security based on a last traded market price of 14c concurrently with newly released price sensitive information which has not been disseminated by the market. To me it just looks and smells wrong in terms of their order and that is what I don't like about what MAY are doing.
I would have preferred the release of the IR Assessment today - the market digests the 'good' news and a placement can then be held on Wednesday or Thursday given the market has had the availability of all known information beforehand.
2 posts from me in a day, I must be bored or interested!

[JBmurc]

Totally agree with your commentary, the placement isn't company negative and they are now perfectly placed...and yes the appreciation since Jan has been non stop.
My observation is more around the timing of the placement. The placement is being conducted on a listed security based on a last traded market price of 14c concurrently with newly released price sensitive information which has not been disseminated by the market. To me it just looks and smells wrong in terms of their order and that is what I don't like about what MAY are doing.
I would have preferred the release of the IR Assessment today - the market digests the 'good' news and a placement can then be held on Wednesday or Thursday given the market has had the availability of all known information beforehand.
2 posts from me in a day, I must be bored or interested!

I agree nothing is going stop MAY running on latest ann's past 20c ..and until we see details of Placement can't really bag Mgmt too much... still would have liked to get more @ 11c if that indeed is the Raise price

Alameda-1: Independent Resources Assessment (Upper Sheet)
Highlights
• Independent reserves expert McDaniel & Associates has made the following
assessment of the three oil reservoirs encountered by the Alameda-1 well in the upper
sheet1 in the Block 9 Production Sharing Contract (Block 9 PSC) area, onshore Cuba:
− 2.5 billion barrels of oil in place
− a combined 119 million barrels2 of Prospective Resource (100% share, unrisked
mean estimate)*
− 86% chance of geological success in at least one of the three zones
• Melbana has a 30% participating interest in Block 9 PSC
• Resource assessment is for the upper units of Alameda-1 only

https://themarketherald.com.au/melbana-energy-asxmay-resource-assessment-confirms-significant-oil-potential-at-alameda-1-2022-03-14/

[JBmurc]

Sounds like the Cap Raise is 12.5mill with 2.5mill Oversub ---@ 12c .... details to be dropped WED .... not sure what my target is now with upper section having so much oil ...

27.5c and I'll add another 10x bagger to the list

[nztx]

Tomorrow could be interesting following on from recent announcements

A few bags here and looking for further :)

[younga]

My best stock was wbt options
...20x ...but this could eclipse it...up 10x already with this one.

[JBmurc]

My best stock was wbt options
...20x ...but this could eclipse it...up 10x already with this one.

Yes I love the timeline put down by MAY mgmt ... its a BUY n HOLD till 2023 30c+.. I think Oil will run again before the years out ..

[JBmurc]

https://twitter.com/melbanaenergy/status/1503915185647792128

Think we could do better than the 5% thats giving us 119MMbbls. ----( so maybe if lighter oil 200MMbbls ???and thats just first smaller of three oil bearing traps to be tested ...!!!)

[Sous87]

Saw that today JB, I’m really looking forward to the next 2 months especially. Think the ride with Melbana will be a string of good news.

[JBmurc]

Saw that today JB, I’m really looking forward to the next 2 months especially. Think the ride with Melbana will be a string of good news.

Yes it ind of hard to fathom how huge this could be not only for us smart Shareholders HOLDing tight but Cuba as well than imports 50,000bbl oil per day .... MAY in time could be the gap that fills that demand ....

I've done a few numbers on just this well ... and using 600MMbbls = 180MMbbls net to MAY @ only $10 AUD per bbl = 1.8Billion ... even with more capital raised I see 50c+ within next 12months ...and HUGE yield going forward at present prices ...and thats not including any more successive wells in Block-9 which I'm sure there will be

[younga]

Expected the price to rise today but didn't. From memory, they expect to start producing in May (of all the months they choose may....). I predict the share price will double by May. May I be right.

[nztx]

PAUSE - Pending an announcement :)

And now a TRADING HALT pending announcement on Drilling programme at Block 9

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02500294-3A589964?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

[JBmurc]

Bring on hopefully an update to drive SP past 20c !!

[nztx]

Pretty positive stuff -

ALAMEDA-1 DRILLING COMPLETED

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02500364-3A589978?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

[nztx]

Bring on hopefully an update to drive SP past 20c !!


Some Optimists over yonder are suggesting 35c may be in target range :)

[JBmurc]

Some Optimists over yonder are suggesting 35c may be in target range :)

and thats just my first target ....longer term if MAY does indeed have 30% share in a 1Billion recoverable Oil discovery some believe ..my gut feel was 500MMbbl untill latest ann .... 350m oil shows into bottom target and didn't reach the bottom ..

I'm thinking MAY is the next BPT ... so 3.5B cap or $1.50 SP with more upside on Block-9 ... HUGE cashflows as Cuba Imports 50,000bbls a day ... MAY might well fill that gap ... Upside in Block-9 which I'm sure MAY could well farm down and get free carry for Billions more in oil resources,,

Certainly a T/O target in HUGE NEO lights for US Oil Major... that will prob pay overs to secure the asset

[Paddie]

MAY finishing strongly today. 20c in the next few days, looking forward to the logging and flow testing.

[JBmurc]

MAY finishing strongly today. 20c in the next few days, looking forward to the logging and flow testing.

I think 30c will be crossed pretty quick on logging and flow testing, even higher ... hard to put a Cap price on such a Major Oil Discovery

[Paddie]

Yes exciting times ahead. Up over 15 bags on the options and 10 on the heads. This has a lot to run yet, was originally getting out at 20-25c, now thinking 40-50c.

[JBmurc]

Yes exciting times ahead. Up over 15 bags on the options and 10 on the heads. This has a lot to run yet, was originally getting out at 20-25c, now thinking 40-50c.

I think when you get these once in a lifetime plays ...you have to let some run ... not sure how much that will be ...but I'm sure the yield will be impressive in time $1+ on the cards maybe next year

[Sous87]

Wow what a day. I’m new to exploration stocks like May but I am so glad I gave it a go. Of all the bandwagons to jump on…Just wow

[JBmurc]

Wow what a day. I’m new to exploration stocks like May but I am so glad I gave it a go. Of all the bandwagons to jump on…Just wow

LRS another one shaping up to be huge ..checkout the thread

[nztx]

A bit of a pullback after Thursday's part day excitement to close @ 17.5c

Plenty more run IMO with Logging & a further avalanche of announcements likely
on taming the captive resident Cuban Elephants lurking down under :)

Possibly opportunity of topping up for those happy with what they see..

[JBmurc]

A bit of a pullback after Thursday's part day excitement to close @ 17.5c

Plenty more run IMO with Logging & a further avalanche of announcements likely
on taming the captive resident Cuban Elephants lurking down under :)

Possibly opportunity of topping up for those happy with what they see..

Yes healthy breather till next Ann ..going from timeline put down by MAY Mgmt will be several important announcements coming over next few months ..I first though we could see 30c highs .this year .. now I think that could be hit within weeks ... 80c - $1 after the several AnnÂ’s if positive as they have been ... longer term no reason why we wonÂ’t be around BPT cap 3-4billion if block-9 is fully developed with billions of oil bbls in reserves ..

Still I think good chance we will see a major energy corporation make a move ..and make an offer we canÂ’t refuse before the years out .. you just donÂ’t see these kind of onshore oil fields undeveloped these days

[Sous87]

Agree. 30c is one or maybe a couple of flow test announcements away from being blown away. Think could easily be 40c + by end of April if results impress.
I missed the boat to top up, I decided to go into a couple other mining plays (thanks JB) when the MAY price was at 20.5c, only for it to drop back to 17.5. All good, very happy diversified camper here lol

[JBmurc]

Agree. 30c is one or maybe a couple of flow test announcements away from being blown away. Think could easily be 40c + by end of April if results impress.
I missed the boat to top up, I decided to go into a couple other mining plays (thanks JB) when the MAY price was at 20.5c, only for it to drop back to 17.5. All good, very happy diversified camper here lol

Yes anyone that’s holding MAY and is getting a tigger finger on the take the FAT Cap gain .. or on the sidelines and thinking they have missed the boat ... go look at HDR , CHN , DEG charts after major finds Ann etc these guy all had global significant discoveries ...we are still in early days 500% growth from micro cap into jnr ranks but could well be a Mid-cap to large cap energy play .. 4Q22 then we will have a better idea about MAY

[nztx]

A massive tree shake or Placement holders dropping their holdings ?

Not a bad opportunity to back up the truck - who knows ? :)

[JBmurc]

A massive tree shake or Placement holders dropping their holdings ?

Not a bad opportunity to back up the truck - who knows ? :)

yeah traders taking profits along with placement insiders taking profits selling shares already held ... seen it many times ... I wonder if we will get update tomorrow

[stoploss]

yeah traders taking profits along with placement insiders taking profits selling shares already held ... seen it many times ... I wonder if we will get update tomorrow
Is that another way to say pump and dump ? :confused:

[JBmurc]

Is that another way to say pump and dump ? :confused:

I'm sure many of the traders see it as a PnD and hope it goes as it has ... but at what point MAY has travelled from low 2c to 21.5c !!! and now back down to 14c ...
now if you paid high teens its pretty painful dump .. but those like myself av. 2.5c .. I sold a few 11c purchased a few back 16c .. I'm not stressed about today trading

As they say spec shares rise on a wall of worry ..we have another BIG fall to say below 10c on no news then I'll be not so happy >>

Really looking forward updates I don't think MAY high has been hit yet >>

[Sous87]

Really need to drop another announcement to wash the lingering bad taste of the cheap CR away. Hopefully after that we can get on with it.

[JBmurc]

https://unauthorised[/url] investment advice/energy/forwood-thinking-lowell-resources-funds-john-forwood-says-energy-and-gold-are-the-markets-to-play-in-these-turbulent-times/


Sector Picks
Forwood says Lowell’s aim is to hunt for the value uplift to be found from companies chasing new discoveries and resource growth at the small end of the listed market. He says one oil play and two gas explorers standout right now.

One is Melbana Energy (ASX:MAY), which is up ~92% over the past month after interpreting a “significant oil reservoir” at the Alameda-1 well in Cuba.

“Melbana is right in that spot at the moment, it’s drilling as we speak a really very substantial oil reservoir in Cuba,” Forwood said.

“And this particular well is going down right now, it’s intersected its first two targets and exceeded the pre-drill prognosis of what might be in those first two targets.

“But the bottom target is actually the biggest one. So if that comes in, then the share price appreciation we’ve already seen — I think it’s up about three times already since the well started — It’ll probably double and possibly even double again from here.”

[JBmurc]

BIG week coming up for MAY >> logs for Marti and Alameda ...do we have a monster onshore Oil discovery .. if so should push well into the 20's

[nztx]

Drilling & Logging Update:

29 March 2022

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02503970-3A590664?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

looks like logging the very bottom of Marti wasn't possible

doesn't look too foul, infact rather pretty encouraging IMO

[nztx]

The nervous nellies unloading / tree shake look like they're creating one heck of an opportunity to top up :)

Good grief .. being sold down contrary to the update .. time to go shopping @ 11.5c on CHI-x currently :)

[Paddie]

The nervous nellies unloading / tree shake look like they're creating one heck of an opportunity to top up :)

Good grief .. being sold down contrary to the update .. time to go shopping @ 11.5c on CHI-x currently :)

I couldn't agree more, nothing wrong with the announcement. I am putting another buy order in.

[Paddie]

I just brought more MAY at 10.5c, crazy prices.

[JBmurc]

Yes Big boys playing games forcing traders retailers out of their positions .. Overall the ann was positive ...

Melbana Energy’s Executive Chairman, Andrew Purcell, commented: “We’re not sure if we’re
seeing evidence of the full extent of this hydrocarbon interval in the Marti sheet, but even if it turns
out to be so we’ve got about 300 mTVD of gross hydrocarbon interval - the bottom of which is
estimated to be some 500 mTVD from the crest of the Marti structure given we intercepted it down
dip. Efforts are now turned to preparations for flow testing.”


And we still have the Alameda trap structure ...

[younga]

May I ask how bad water in the hole is? Sold some options at 9.6 and bought some at 8.8 and 10...just guessing at the moment so please enlighten me

[Sous87]

From the conversations on HC my understanding is that water that far down is not to be worried about. The oil sits on top of water and there’s about 300-500m of hydrocarbons before it gets down to the water level. Also water helps with create pressure which is good.

[JBmurc]

From the conversations on HC my understanding is that water that far down is not to be worried about. The oil sits on top of water and there’s about 300-500m of hydrocarbons before it gets down to the water level. Also water helps with create pressure which is good.

Yes just go look at the Diagram of a classic Oil Trap ... water under the oil is standard ..I think some of the spec traders market took it that somehow MAY had made a mistake and is going have issues with this lower trap ... but I don't think this is the case..... The wirelog update in fact tells you there is a huge resource there justifying flow tests..... they wouldn't do this in this lower trap wasn't looking commercial ..

[JBmurc]

And off we go back upwards .. Just how many Billions of bbls of oil has MAY got ....2.5Bill in the shallow.. will have flow tests out 11th-13th from the sidetrack ...

[Sous87]

Houston we are cleared for launch.
Seriously good confirmation of what’s in the ground has just come in!!

[nztx]

Indeed .. all primed to take off like a rocket:

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02508213-3A591396?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

[JBmurc]

Is going be a BIG discovery that for sure .. I stand by 500MBOE+ min recoverable oil so net 150MBOE net to MAY ...

Now going from the idiots in Congress ...OIL will surge higher again soon

https://twitter.com/nimblephatty/status/1511719985672073225?s=20&t=k5KAnLNc8h_u3DKjbQpiVQ

[nztx]

Is going be a BIG discovery that for sure .. I stand by 500MBOE+ min recoverable oil so net 150MBOE net to MAY ...

Now going from the idiots in Congress ...OIL will surge higher again soon

https://twitter.com/nimblephatty/status/1511719985672073225?s=20&t=k5KAnLNc8h_u3DKjbQpiVQ


Sounds like a Real Ripper:

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02510200-3A591705?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4


When there's difficulty keeping the Lid on it - then you know there's monster deposit residing
underneath :)

[JBmurc]

Yeah I think many will wish they held onto their shares as this Monster Oil Discovery is revealed to the market>>

[JBmurc]

Still holding tight to my lot ... good results due?? and a 20c-30c SP might see me take some profits ... would like to get some funds into U308/REE plays I have my eye on ...

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Oil-And-Gas-Industry-Is-Booming-Despite-Net-Zero-Ambitions.html

[nztx]

Still holding tight to my lot ... good results due?? and a 20c-30c SP might see me take some profits ... would like to get some funds into U308/REE plays I have my eye on ...

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Oil-And-Gas-Industry-Is-Booming-Despite-Net-Zero-Ambitions.html


I'm getting ready to back up the truck again if market nervousness persists :)

[nztx]

11.0 c close might be shaking out a fair few margin calls & weak hands :)

might be some better buying opportunities following :)

[JBmurc]

Don't hang around Nztx ... MAY MD is in CUBA about to get the photo shoot of light oil ...high flow tests >>> will be back to 20c+

[nztx]

Don't hang around Nztx ... MAY MD is in CUBA about to get the photo shoot of light oil ...high flow tests >>> will be back to 20c+


a very jittery market on today's announcement -- could be a period of extreme turbulence for a while
based on today's market reaction .. may need even more trucks to help out the loose hands :)

might be a fairly enlarged bunch of battered & bruised margin call reciprients & shell shocked loose hands
going forward after today ;)

[Paddie]

We have a discovery and a big one at that (significant global discovery) and yes we have a set back but they will work out a way to get the oil out in time.
Give me the current situation over a duster and I know where I would rather be.

[nztx]

We have a discovery and a big one at that (significant global discovery) and yes we have a set back but they will work out a way to get the oil out in time.
Give me the current situation over a duster and I know where I would rather be.

Agree with that too .. a good buying opportunity IMO :)

[Paddie]

Agree with that too .. a good buying opportunity IMO :)

I couldn't agree more, I will be watching closely tomorrow, if the Dow has a bad day I am sure that there will be some cheap shares on offer.

[JBmurc]

Yes dam it ... 20c seems so long ago ... looks like the Monster Billion+ barrel Discovery needs better testing equipment worse case they might have to plug the High pressure primary lower zone and just produce from the upper levels .... ?? still many years of production that will fund future development re-drill of the primary deeper target ...

Overall results bode well for the new "Zapato" drill ... IMHO we have discovered a Massive Kitchen of O&G ... early days that years ahead will be looked back on as a Gift Buying chance that will last for upwards of the next 4 wks IMHO ...

I'm happy to continue to Hold JULY-AUG we will have "Zapato" drilling interval Oil Gas show results ...... hopefully timeframe on re-entry of Alameda-1 and plans for commercial sales from the upper Amistad zone .... they could have muti wells flowing 0000's bbls oil per day later this year ....

NET mean 35mmbbls MAY (@ $20bbl AUD free-cashflow =$700mill AUD)

$32mill in cash end of MAR22..

MAY-MD Quote
"We’ll all have to be a little more patient, therefore, but gladly accept that the reasons for the challenges we faced in drilling Alameda-1 give us good reason to be optimistic about our future in Cuba. We are now revising our plans for testing in Alameda-1 whilst also preparing for the start of drilling at Zapato-1.”
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/cuba-adventure-jv-moves-on-to-the-second-exploration-well/2-1-1208383

[JBmurc]

Great post from HC poster that knows his stuff >>

In short a vertical well using high pressure casing, try to avoid deviations as this will help mitigate issues. A bigger rig may also be required. There might be room to talk to US operators who have such a rig, the US will work with Cuba on issues of energy security and safety.

The Alemada-1 well was quite deviated in order to intersect both deeper objectives. I suspect the deviation whilst designed to be a good exploration type design was drilled based on offset data on pressure regimes in Cuba. So the formation pressures were quite higher then expected and this resulted in the inability to safely flow test. Which implies each time they tried to open it up the pressure spiked and it was a struggle to bring it back under control.

I suspect the lower sheet targets will exhibit similar pressure regime issues. The next well is a single target well so it shouldn’t be as deviated, with a 1km vertical relief it’s another monster.

The company can release updated prospective resource at Alemada and Marti and tell holders of the API of the oil recovered. With the net/gross and pressure it is enough to update those figures that were per drill.

A presentation to give holders more insight on this would be good, also showing the upgraded prospect portfolio of block 9 given the results to date.

This wouldn’t be too much to expect. Some more information to alleviate concerns is always helpful.

[nztx]

Great post from HC poster that knows his stuff >>

In short a vertical well using high pressure casing, try to avoid deviations as this will help mitigate issues. A bigger rig may also be required. There might be room to talk to US operators who have such a rig, the US will work with Cuba on issues of energy security and safety.

The Alemada-1 well was quite deviated in order to intersect both deeper objectives. I suspect the deviation whilst designed to be a good exploration type design was drilled based on offset data on pressure regimes in Cuba. So the formation pressures were quite higher then expected and this resulted in the inability to safely flow test. Which implies each time they tried to open it up the pressure spiked and it was a struggle to bring it back under control.

I suspect the lower sheet targets will exhibit similar pressure regime issues. The next well is a single target well so it shouldn’t be as deviated, with a 1km vertical relief it’s another monster.

The company can release updated prospective resource at Alemada and Marti and tell holders of the API of the oil recovered. With the net/gross and pressure it is enough to update those figures that were per drill.

A presentation to give holders more insight on this would be good, also showing the upgraded prospect portfolio of block 9 given the results to date.

This wouldn’t be too much to expect. Some more information to alleviate concerns is always helpful.

A good post that one over yonder too.. MAY appear to have been very fiercely oversold on Thursday's
announcement(s) perhaps unfairly - but in view of current market not unexpected.

There may be a claw back of lost ground in coming days leading ahead too - ASX can be very volatile
A whole different kettle of fish from NZX in a sheltered backwater :)

[JBmurc]

Yes not being able to give us a Flow-test spooked retailer S/Hs ...I see JP Morgan broker added more along with other insto's ..

MAY MD pretty clear-And I fully understand safety first when we are dealing with such a Large Oil system I'm sure in hindsight they wished they had a Larger rig ... but I guess onshore you don't often discovery these anymore ?

Melbana Energy’s Executive Chairman, Andrew Purcell, commented: “Our Alameda-1
exploration well has delivered results considerably greater than our predrill expectations.

Having found three significant and highly energised intervals of net hydrocarbon pay we were naturally keen
to try and get some data on the oil’s composition and the likely performance of the reservoirs as soon
as possible, but this will now have to wait for the formal testing program given that management of
the high formation pressures made it complicated to repurpose our exploration well into a testing
environment.

We’ll all have to be a little more patient, therefore, but gladly accept that the reasons
for the challenges we faced in drilling Alameda-1 give us good reason to be optimistic about our
future in Cuba. We are now revising our plans for testing in Alameda-1 whilst also preparing for the
start of drilling at Zapato-1.”

[JBmurc]

Goldman Sachs expressed optimism that the industry has reached a turning point in the oil and gas capex cycle, with seven years of declining activity about to come to an end. Goldman reckons that oil and gas capex could triple from recent lows......


Oil price outlook--- US shale
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FZ3pbKXBx8


In the clip as the analyst stated ...pre-China Lockdown OIL demand was back to pre-COVID levels .... so watch out when CHINA opens back up .. Investment lagging badly when need BILLIONS invested ASAP or we will see $150bbl+ 2H22 IMHO

And we have MAY with a major discovery the market has cooled on along with the general market >>BUT I think we will have a slingshot move in MAY when #1 we get a total prospective resource for the net 300m oil interval drilled ... and the new well hits Oil shows in the 2nd planned exploration one targeting one very large structure ...

[JBmurc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lE-tdBHzO8I

Investor Stream chats with Melbana Energy (ASX:MAY) Executive Chairman Andrew Purcell (May 5 2022)

[JBmurc]

Up 25% for the day .... with much more to come...

I like to look over the last presentation when I'm wondering about buying more shares >>>>
https://www.melbana.com/site/cpfile/b9925341-3a73-4da1-953c-f4e5d95f5c34/20220302MAYCorporateFlyer2.pdf

[nztx]

Up 10%, then back down to hold it's own today :)

Can't be too bad given what others have seen in way of a trimming :)

[JBmurc]

Up 10%, then back down to hold it's own today :)

Can't be too bad given what others have seen in way of a trimming :)

Yeah like LRS really good sign strong buying ..must be update coming soon

[nztx]

The Loose hands are likely providing a good top up opportunity in near future for those with a bit of patience IMO

Let's see what their games produce on the SP :)

[JBmurc]

The Loose hands are likely providing a good top up opportunity in near future for those with a bit of patience IMO

Let's see what their games produce on the SP :)

Yes I keep thinking back to MAR20 when I seen my portfolio half in value in weeks from COVID SELL-OFF to months later have my BIggest every gains ... feeling it will go the same way for the likes of MAY ...

[nztx]

Yes I keep thinking back to MAR20 when I seen my portfolio half in value in weeks from COVID SELL-OFF to months later have my BIggest every gains ... feeling it will go the same way for the likes of MAY ...


Something similar here too, the next 6 months after the dip showing large gains

MAY have further release today on Zapato and being quite a communicative stock
the progress reports may well point to better reflection of true value ahead

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02521425-3A593587?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Zapato-1 Exploration well on track to spud end of May

[DarkHorse]

Are you still keen on this one JB and nztx?

[nztx]

Are you still keen on this one JB and nztx?

Yep still in here - I'm with JB .. wouldn't surprise if better things as 2022 goes on &
the Market gets over it's nervousness .. recently bought some more to top up too

Can't see too much adverse in recent releases - possible reasonable upside
as market recognises real value as it unfolds IMO

Let's face it AVZ is out of play while a few games of tiddlywinks get played in DRC
while it remains suspended, but really dont see many issues with this one :)

Possibly investors looking at other good potential companies out there now, who knows

[JBmurc]

Are you still keen on this one JB and nztx?

Yep purchased more recently >> OIL Price well supported with so many potential factors that could see it much higher >>

https://themarketherald.com.au/melbana-energy-asxmay-shares-rise-on-drilling-of-zapato-1-2022-05-23/

[JBmurc]

Alameda-1: Independent Resources Assessment (Alameda Reservoir)
Highlights
• Independent reserves and resources expert McDaniel & Associates has made the
following assessment of the second of three oil reservoirs encountered by the
Alameda-1 exploration well in the Block 9 Production Sharing Contract (Block 9 PSC)
area, onshore Cuba:
− 2.3 billion barrels of oil in place
− 148 million barrels of Prospective Resource1,2
− 56% chance of discovery6
• The first two reservoirs (out of the three encountered by the Alameda-1 exploration
well) have now been independently assessed to contain a combined:
− 4.8 billion barrels of oil in place
− 267 million barrels of Prospective Resource1,2

[nomis]

Yep still in here - I'm with JB .. wouldn't surprise if better things as 2022 goes on &
the Market gets over it's nervousness .. recently bought some more to top up too

Can't see too much adverse in recent releases - possible reasonable upside
as market recognises real value as it unfolds IMO

Let's face it AVZ is out of play while a few games of tiddlywinks get played in DRC
while it remains suspended, but really dont see many issues with this one :)

Possibly investors looking at other good potential companies out there now, who knows

Actually scary accurate what you said there about AVZ - MAY has had my full attention over the last 6 weeks whilst AVZ is in halt. So far so good.
I also dont see any long term issues with AVZ but would be nice in the short term to release 3 announcements in a row. ML / BFS / Favorable arbitration outcome

[nztx]

Actually scary accurate what you said there about AVZ - MAY has had my full attention over the last 6 weeks whilst AVZ is in halt. So far so good.
I also dont see any long term issues with AVZ but would be nice in the short term to release 3 announcements in a row. ML / BFS / Favorable arbitration outcome


It will be interesting how the market rates AVZ once it restarts trading & what Announcements come out
at that point .. it's possible it could come romping out the starting gate on the right news..

Have exposure to both MAY & AVZ (a reduced small wait & see pre-suspension)

I like the captive market with MAY - no Greenie nonsense in Cuba - international pricing
and overflow into selling excess internationally, once things get pumping and reserves
are more fully ascertained.. plus lots more in possible offshore Cuban exploration assets
that haven't been looked at .. something that has not even come into the SP equation yet.

[JBmurc]

Took a profit on 250k shares @12.5 last week ... brought them back 9.5c today ... impatient S/H's ... Zapato-1 taken longer than some expected ... should get an update early next week ... fingers crossed we are making good progress and maybe even have broken the formation cap into the vertical relief thats going run some 1000m ..here's hoping it full of Billions barrels OIL !!!

[JBmurc]

Now we know why MAY mgmt. have been quiet ... waiting to see how the stuck pipe operations go ..hoping the sidetrack goes to plan as we seen with oil on the shakers always a good sign as we seen on the last cuban well>>

Melbana Energy’s Executive Chairman, Andrew Purcell, commented: “While the stuck pipe event
and the need to side-track the well is a little frustrating, these are normal operations that sometimes
occur in the course of some drilling programs and our operations team is well equipped to manage this
and commence the side-track drill. Despite this, what is particularly encouraging is the observation of
oil over the shakers while still within the ophiolite overburden section. This provides encouragement
for the target interval yet to be encountered. We will continue to provide updates on operations as they
advance.”

[ordop]

Indicates that oil is there to a degree but clearly the big unknown is the quantities present. Good news though that Sonangol are funding 85% of this and we're now sidetracking so obviously both parties deem it worth pursuing further. Wouldn't be surprised if they get positive results at 2000m given original guestimates. Overleveraged ASX punters including those on HC will be a drag to the share price now though unless AP can indicate some quick turnaround on Armistad. I sold some heads at 9.5cps and bought the mayo at 5.5 so using the opportunity to reduce my conversion cost.

[JBmurc]

Indicates that oil is there to a degree but clearly the big unknown is the quantities present. Good news though that Sonangol are funding 85% of this and we're now sidetracking so obviously both parties deem it worth pursuing further. Wouldn't be surprised if they get positive results at 2000m given original guestimates. Overleveraged ASX punters including those on HC will be a drag to the share price now though unless AP can indicate some quick turnaround on Armistad. I sold some heads at 9.5cps and bought the mayo at 5.5 so using the opportunity to reduce my conversion cost.

Yeah certainly going be a major delay ..that will force some to exit that are on leverage or wanting to exercise opts so need to raise capital ... I see a major seller of the opts @ 5.5c ... has created half cent discount in the opts.. likely doesn't have the spare capital to exercise...

Anyone bullish on MAY with deep pocket would do well buying the opts and exercise ... save .5c at present ... still some several weeks to run..could give the opts another say 4-5wks ..

I've exercised opts many times before is pretty straight forward ... always see selling close to exercise date ..

I've got a small trading parcel of MAY up for sale @ 9.9c ... If sold I'll buy the opts with the funds

I like from the ann >>drilling continued within the ophiolite overburden section to a depth of 1698 metres at which point the drill string became stuck. While attempting to retrieve the drill string, free oil was observed on the shakers at surface which is most encouraging..

Would be brilliant to see another ann in a few weeks time we have continued oil on the shakers as we drill towards 2650m primary objective would have to be a very good sign like we had at Alameda .. that we know from 2 of 3 structures has prospective Oil in place over 4billion bbls ...

[Paddie]

I think that AP will do anything that he can to get the options exercised. We have to come the Marti resource, more drilling and hopefully more oil shows, as well as a plan to production. I am picking we will get a bit of a spike from the above and I will look at my options then on how I will fund my options to be exercised.

[JBmurc]

I think that AP will do anything that he can to get the options exercised. We have to come the Marti resource, more drilling and hopefully more oil shows, as well as a plan to production. I am picking we will get a bit of a spike from the above and I will look at my options then on how I will fund my options to be exercised.

For sure ..I don't have any fears most of the opts won't be converted they are so well in the money only 3.5c ex-price ..surely anyone that has them must understand you need to have the funds in place or sell .. I'm happy with my holding ... but if I was looking to buy in the extra effort buying at opts would reap you a $5k saving for every 1mill shares .... at my present holding thats a $10k saving .. for what an hours work

[JBmurc]

Melbana adds 1.5 billion bbls to Alameda discovery

https://www.energynewsbulletin.net/exploration/news/1436948/melbana-adds-15-billion-bbls-to-alameda-discovery

[Sous87]

Cannot wait for some details on the forward plan for Alameda, and since I only have heads I also look forward to options expiring in September. So much can happen in next 60 days information wise.

[ordop]

Yes, forward plans and next 12 months are quite exciting in terms of which way the JV chooses to maneuver and manage Block 9. But this month for MAY sp is likely to be an absolute nightmare for some. Reading some of the HC posts, you can really sense the fear and anger in some posts, illustrating how exposed to the options they are. It will be interesting to see how the sp moves from about 3 September onwards and then on post the exercise date.

[JBmurc]

Yes with some 400mill+ opts thats some $14mill+ in capital needing raised ..so of course many MAYO holders will also hold MAY shares ..so sell the heads to fund the opts ..some MAY only holders might well see attraction in selling head shares to BUY opts and exercise to save half cent per share.. Its certainly going be good to see the funds raised and opts out of the way ..

[nztx]

Zapato 1st Drilling Update - 4 Aug 2022

Link to pdf release on ASX site:

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02549851-3A598472?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Sidetrack hole currently at 1942 m ; Drilling proceeding well

[JBmurc]

Zapato 1st Drilling Update - 4 Aug 2022

Link to pdf release on ASX site:

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02549851-3A598472?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Sidetrack hole currently at 1942 m ; Drilling proceeding well

Yes within couple weeks we should have an idea if we have yet another trap fill of OIL>>>

[nztx]

Black gold needed more urgently now ! :)

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-zapato-1-drilling-update.6846610/page-512?post_id=62733488

That Russian Stuff burned real quickly


MATANZAS, Cuba, July 18 (Reuters) - A tanker carrying some 700,000 barrels of Russian fuel oil is delivering its cargo at a Cuban terminal, Refinitiv Eikon vessel tracking data showed, a move to ease the fuel scarcity that has forced power cuts and rationing in the island." https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-fuel-oil-cargo-discharging-cubas-matanzas-terminal-2022-07-18

"Martí is a Cuban town and municipality in north-eastern section of Matanzas Province." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mart%C3%AD,_Cuba

The Cuban terminal is so close to the marti/zapato wells, this potentially means after refining, they can export pretty easily. But, it sounds like Cuba will probably buy all of the oil from Sonangol/Melbana.


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/lightning-strike-set-cuban-oil-facility-on-fire-17-missing/KZETJFR7T7RR6EWQBJCBWJNLHQ/

7 Aug, 2022 03:37 PM

Lightning strike set Cuban oil facility on fire, 17 missing


A fire set off by a lightning strike at an oil storage facility raged uncontrolled Saturday in the city of Matanzas, where four explosions and flames injured 121 people and left 17 firefighters missing, Cuban authorities said.

Firefighters and other specialists were still trying to quell the blaze at the Matanzas Supertanker Base, where the fire began during a thunderstorm, the Ministry of Energy and Mines tweeted. Authorities said about 800 people were evacuated from the Dubrocq neighbourhood closest to the fire,

The government said it had asked for help from international experts in "friendly countries" with experience in the oil sector.


The official Cuban News Agency said lightning hit one tank, starting a fire, and the blaze later spread to a second tank. As military helicopters flew overhead dropping water on the blaze, a dense column of black smoke billowed from the facility and spread westward more than 100km toward Havana.

[JBmurc]

Black gold needed more urgently now ! :)

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-zapato-1-drilling-update.6846610/page-512?post_id=62733488

That Russian Stuff burned real quickly




https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/lightning-strike-set-cuban-oil-facility-on-fire-17-missing/KZETJFR7T7RR6EWQBJCBWJNLHQ/

7 Aug, 2022 03:37 PM

Lightning strike set Cuban oil facility on fire, 17 missing

Yes I understood Cuba imports works out at 50,000bbls per day ..... Sonangol/Melbana. could well fill this demand just from the two wells(If ZAPATO is a discovery) if they drill enough development wells they should easy see 50kbbls per day (net 15kbbls MAY) ...

[Paddie]

JB have you converted your oppies yet?

[JBmurc]

JB have you converted your oppies yet?

Sold them ages ago and just purchased more head shares ...they were always priced pretty high Vs time to expiry ...but I'm sure many are raising funds at present to convert ...some 400mill+ - $14mill AUD to come in if all converted

[Sous87]

Some real doom and gloom over at HC!
I personally am excited about the news flow to come. Options Handbrake comes off very soon. Must be due for another webinar from AP, I assume after announcements around Sonangol/Govt meetings. Plus Zapato imminent news. SP only matters if you have to sell.

[nztx]

I contrast MAY against what is being seen with other energy stocks - WHC & WDS

All going well, MAY could be joining those in producing status with a captive market
in place. Granted the Cuban economy is in a mess and tank fire, high oil prices
dont help. 8.2c may well be the steal of the decade for those prepared to ride
with the project progressing..

[Paddie]

Some real doom and gloom over at HC!
I personally am excited about the news flow to come. Options Handbrake comes off very soon. Must be due for another webinar from AP, I assume after announcements around Sonangol/Govt meetings. Plus Zapato imminent news. SP only matters if you have to sell.

I couldn't agree more, we know that we have found oil and plenty of it. Zapato is a bonus if it comes in, the sooner that we get to producing the sooner we will rerate and significantly. I am sure that in the current market all parties will be keen to start pumping it out of the ground ASAP.

[JBmurc]

Some real doom and gloom over at HC!
I personally am excited about the news flow to come. Options Handbrake comes off very soon. Must be due for another webinar from AP, I assume after announcements around Sonangol/Govt meetings. Plus Zapato imminent news. SP only matters if you have to sell.

Yes we will have a MASSIVE rerate if Zapato hit major OIL shows then large intervals like we already have with Alameda well

.... would prove up the whole Block as being oil bearing across muti structure zones ..talking many Billion's barrel of oil .... massive for Cuban ...internationally headline news ..

think a major O&G player would make an offer MAY mgmt/board couldn't refuse ...

you just got to do the numbers for every 100MMbbls oil net @ $10 USD IGV = $1bill USD ....

MAY marketcap =$$233mill

Certainly market giving large discount being in cuban ..

[nztx]

Such enticing temptations out there for those who know where to look :)

wonder if the Cubans would mind chucking in few free pineapples and bags of sugar ?

[JBmurc]

Such enticing temptations out there for those who know where to look :)

wonder if the Cubans would mind chucking in few free pineapples and bags of sugar ?

I'm sure the Cuban Govt will be falling over themselves to smooth the way to production if MAY do indeed have seriously large OIL deposit

[nztx]

Today's MAY announcement - Zapato-1 drill @ 2642m and still in hard volcanics

Loose hands appear to still be selling down

[JBmurc]

Today's MAY announcement - Zapato-1 drill @ 2642m and still in hard volcanics

Loose hands appear to still be selling down

Getting close now ... maybe before the weeks out we get update on some oil on the shakers etc ... need something positive getting hammered of late

[nztx]

Getting close now ... maybe before the weeks out we get update on some oil on the shakers etc ... need something positive getting hammered of late


Indeed JB .. I almost forgot the Aussie ASX was open today until I saw the announcement email from MAY's website come in :)

[nztx]

Very hard volcanic rock, power outages, oil refineries burned out and then a large
tropical storm blasting through .. the SP continues to show tatters and the odd flutter
out of putting even the most seasoned investors through the Cuban adventure :)

[JBmurc]

well another week down it seems like an age of waiting ... maybe next week straight into Trading halt to ann on massive OIL gas kick ...oil on shakers etc

[JBmurc]

Melbana Energy’s Executive Chairman, Andrew Purcell, commented: “We continue to persist
with the drilling of Zapato-1 as we believe there must be a productive hydrocarbon zone underneath
the volcanics we’re drilling through, given the light crude that existed in the shallow section at
Motembo. We chose the Zapato structure for our second exploration well not just for its potential in
its own right but because establishing the validity of this thesis unlocks the potential for similar and
multiple very large plays in adjacent structures in Block 9, such as the A2 lead. As previously
flagged, the massive adjacent Varadero field that has been in production since the late 70s was
drilled on a similar gravity anomaly and that those rocks are the same as what has been thrust
deeper at Zapato. As such, we will continue drilling Zapato in the immediate term with the aim of
discovering a productive hydrocarbon zone. Concurrently, we are planning a return to Alameda so
we can start appraising the material volumes of moveable hydrocarbons we found there. Recent
option conversions have strengthened our cash balance and we are well-placed for an extensive
works program.”

[nztx]

I'm waiting for the 5.0c bargain basement level to be reached :)

[JBmurc]

I'm waiting for the 5.0c bargain basement level to be reached :)

Maybe could well be another 10days+ if Zapato is a duster below the volcanics MAY will dip maybe even into the 4's briefly ..

the market has hammered MAY for the length of time to see any material flow-rates / production plans etc ... really because much of the daily moves come from traders and retailers ... the smart are holding tight and BUYing more at these levels ...

IMHO downside in the Short term 4c range .... upside short term 20-30c if Zapato major success ....longer term 2023-25..... 50c+

[JBmurc]

MAY up 28% on strong BUYING .... insiders hearing about OIL shows ??? .... I think the market might have forgot just massive this ...if Zapato has also hit a major Oil discovery ...

[nztx]

Combined volume 60 m + today .. looks like something's up :)

[JBmurc]

Combined volume 60 m + today .. looks like something's up :)

Yes If Zapato filled to the brim ..we will see much more than 40%+ intraday move

[JBmurc]

and MAY SP just keeps heading north ... 9.6c intraday high ...

[Sous87]

Building and consolidating nicely, just need that all important announcement and we’re off to the races big time.
I wasn’t brave enough to buy more at the lower end because I never took profit from the first run (doh!) but happy to see the sun rise on this company again.
Even no announcement tomorrow morning, I think chance the end of week close will be awesome, everyone taking positions over the weekend.

[CAM]

Buying opportunity for the longer term players....

[JBmurc]

Buying opportunity for the longer term players....

Yes strangle way to finish ...not a duster ...just didn't want to drill deeper than 3150m... maybe the Drill Rig was at its Limits ??

Melbana Energy’s Executive Chairman, Andrew Purcell, commented: “Congratulations to
our drilling team for reaching our target total depth in challenging drilling conditions. The
thickness of the ophiolite sequence was a major risk for this well and we’ve certainly
encountered our share of it. Although it is tempting to keep going given the signs that we may
be nearing the end of the ophiolites, we also are keen to get started on appraising the oil
reservoirs encountered whilst drilling Alameda-1. The Zapato play type remains extremely
significant but for now it’s time to stop exploring and start appraising.”

[Paddie]

I am happy that they have pulled the pin on Zapato. We need to get back to Alameda where we know that we have oil and have a clear path to production.

Once we get close to producing the share will get rerated and it should be substantial.

[JBmurc]

I am happy that they have pulled the pin on Zapato. We need to get back to Alameda where we know that we have oil and have a clear path to production.

Once we get close to producing the share will get rerated and it should be substantial.

Yes and as Zapato is not plugged,and abandoned....shows it may well be re-entered with a bigger rig to go deeper if the data shows good reason for this>>once they have production cashflows down the road they could head back to continue drilling deeper>>

[Paddie]

Yes and as Zapato is not plugged, and abandoned....shows it may well be re-entered with a bigger rig to go deeper if the data shows good reason for this>>once they have production cashflows down the road they could head back to continue drilling deeper>>

I agree, all is not lost with Zapato.

May have had 157 days to plan their return to Alameda, I would like to think that the market will be informed soon on their plans to get it in to production. It should not take long to drill to where they first found oil in the upper sheets and start pumping oil from a world class discovery. This will rerate our share price.

[JBmurc]

I agree, all is not lost with Zapato.

May have had 157 days to plan their return to Alameda, I would like to think that the market will be informed soon on their plans to get it in to production. It should not take long to drill to where they first found oil in the upper sheets and start pumping oil from a world class discovery. This will rerate our share price.

Yes some great posts on HC from guys with great understanding of Oil geology ...Zapato is far from a duster more so they need to run downhole tests to better understand how much further to drill to hit the Placetas zone that could well be Oil bearing

one of the great poster>>
.
Alexei ii,

good point. And that is a possibility. And this reasoning could be what tipped it over the line and made them to decide to suspend, and spend the money on Alameda.

Some more info. Once they decided to call TD, they tripped the rods and ran logs. That takes time and costs money. And you don't do that if its a duster. You run the logs to get info that allows you to correlate seismic with whats in the ground. And to do this data analysis takes time. They have to add it to all the data in their current model and then play with it. Its an iterative process with myriad variables to play with. And its best done when you don't have a $50,000/day rig and its crew waiting for you. I now have no problem with what they did (called TD, ran logs and suspend), it makes sense.

Personally, I still dont believe Zapato will be a duster. Go over @VOGC excellent analysis. He has nailed it.
All of what he said should be read carefully as theres a lot of good stuff in there. Some key/standout points for me are rehashed below:
the well did not test the known reservoir rocks - Placetas;
the Placetas are still present beneath the Ophiolites (this association is present other drilled sections, updip of the Zapato target)
the seismic reflector they were interpreting as the top of the Placetas either lies deeper than the current drilling depth, or that reflector is not the one we are looking for. Have a good look at the section VOGC posted - around the small yellow line drawn by VOGC. Including VOGCs yellow line, theres up to 3 reflectors forming broad anticlines (humps) sitting under the interpreted pre drill top Placetas. Hence my comment (VOGC said the same) about extending the drill another 300m.
The oil aint going anywhere, and MAY is about to start adding to the $45M cash balance.

LTH, there are a few #$%^heads posting rubbish here, some with lots of light bulbs, but they are FOS. Dont listen to rubbish. Make your own decision, but Im hanging on, to see what the highly pressured Amistad/Marti/Alameda oil shows will give us in terms of BOPD. And in due course, we go back to Zapato and finish the job.






I spoke to one of the managers in Sydney earlier today to clarify a few things. You have hit the nail on the head behind the reasoning of suspending zapato. It stems from the fact that it's all based on reprocessed old seismic which therefore has some data quality issues. They are waiting on the final bits of information from logs and then they can start to move forward with plans here and elsewhere in the block.

The person I talked too has also hinted at additional upside that is in the early phases. Also that the carbonates are likely/potentially linked and hence traps are potentially globally significant and hence why they were chasing deeper to determine that at zapato.

The amount of fractures encountered in the opholites has been a surprise to them at the lower sections and this might touch on some potential upside at Motembo style traps.

best of luck holders

[Paddie]

I can't believe that after nearly 2 weeks since Zapato was suspended, we have not had a forward plan tabled on how they are going to drill Alameda.

They had 157 days to plan Alameda, shareholders should have been informed when the called time on Zapato.

[JBmurc]

Should get update on operation soon >>> Investor Webinar 15th November 2022 with Q&A ... I'm sure many S/H will be asking WTF is going on ?

[Paddie]

And so shareholders should ask the question. This is bull****, we supposedly have a significant world class discovery but we have no idea what the company plans are to monetise it.

[JBmurc]

And so shareholders should ask the question. This is bull****, we supposedly have a significant world class discovery but we have no idea what the company plans are to monetise it.

Plans out today .... going be a few months till we get any real results ...IMHO 2Q23 will be the company maker Qty .... many ST selling looking elsewhere in the meant time

[Paddie]

Plans out today .... going be a few months till we get any real results ...IMHO 2Q23 will be the company maker Qty .... many ST selling looking elsewhere in the meant time

Disappointing to say the least. It will be 4 months from when we reached target depth on Zapato until we re-enter Alameda. I understand the need for maintenance for the rig, but thought that we would re drill Alameda a lot sooner than that.

[nztx]

current SP must have some risk of a potential takeout by interested parties I would imagine
aside from a trove of good prospective buying ..

Ready and waiting for this after unloading around point just before last dip and knives being
rattled on the empty barrels thereafter

[JBmurc]

current SP must have some risk of a potential takeout by interested parties I would imagine
aside from a trove of good prospective buying ..

Ready and waiting for this after unloading around point just before last dip and knives being
rattled on the empty barrels thereafter

Yes I recall MAY was worth 60mill marketcap last year without one of the largest onshore Oil discoveries this year ... we now have 40mill+ cash ,,,, MAY 30% share of a 6.4Bill bbl discovery around 110MMbbls net prospective to MAY .. is being valued at around $1 per bbl ..... nothing for other assets like Beehive that could well bring in another 100mill+ net to MAY ...

I'm happy to wait and will buy more if holders want to be silly and give them away

[JBmurc]

Melbana Energy’s Executive Chairman, Andrew Purcell, commented: “Having just
returned from Cuba, I can confirm that preparations are advancing satisfactorily for the drilling
of this first appraisal well. Good appraisal results would be a very significant outcome for us,
not just because of the significant volumes of oil that may exist at this location but because
success heightens the appeal of adjacent structures with similar characteristics.
Given the extended time frame for the second well we drilled this year, it is easy to forget how
dynamic Alameda-1 was. What an exciting year 2023 is going to be, testing the potentially
enormous volumes of oil beneath our feet.

[nztx]

Whoa! What just happened ? :)

[JBmurc]

Whoa! What just happened ? :)

Insto/brokers let the handbrake off SELL pressure after accumulating enough shares from the weak retailers near the bottom ... Glad I added a few more lower
Holding tight to 2.25mill ... should continue to trend higher pre drill 9-10c my prediction

[Paddie]

MAY opening strongly this morning, I am a little surprised that it has risen so quickly. I was expecting interest to strengthen in January as we get closer to drilling.

[JBmurc]

MAY opening strongly this morning, I am a little surprised that it has risen so quickly. I was expecting interest to strengthen in January as we get closer to drilling.

I think we could well be into the mid teens by MAR23 ... good flow rates and we could double that esp from the second well thats going to the high pressure deep trap that should well hold the lightest oil of --- Alameda --- at present Prospective resource is working on very heavy crude with low recoveries 5% etc .... just how much can be recovered of the 6Bill + monster

[JBmurc]

Comment from "afawcett" on HC forum that was at the Melbourne PESA Christmas luncheon where Melbana's head of geophysics will be giving a speech on the Cuban operations today >>>>

There was some interesting discussions being made about the potential of the discovery. Errol gave a rough ball park it may be quite larger then the independent estimate, a multiple of 5-10 times larger.

The structures go potentially well beyond the seismic profiles the company has....

.... at present MAY has 6.4 Billion bbl discovery so 30-50 Bill ?? would be one of the largest ever onshore discoveries...!!! just off the one exploration well Alameda #1 ... Zapato didn't go deep enough ...

the Whole Block-9 could well see MAY into a Major Oil player international ... exciting times 2023

[Baa_Baa]

Comment from "afawcett" on HC forum that was at the Melbourne PESA Christmas luncheon where Melbana's head of geophysics will be giving a speech on the Cuban operations today >>>>

There was some interesting discussions being made about the potential of the discovery. Errol gave a rough ball park it may be quite larger then the independent estimate, a multiple of 5-10 times larger.

The structures go potentially well beyond the seismic profiles the company has....

.... at present MAY has 6.4 Billion bbl discovery so 30-50 Bill ?? would be one of the largest ever onshore discoveries...!!! just off the one exploration well Alameda #1 ... Zapato didn't go deep enough ...

the Whole Block-9 could well see MAY into a Major Oil player international ... exciting times 2023

Nice ramp, he obviously has some already. You know this.

[JBmurc]

Nice ramp, he obviously has some already. You know this.

I know it sound prime ramp the whole MEGA billions of bbls .. but this isn't from me or other S/H's ..but Melbana's head of geophysics ... so maybe he's full of it ....
or maybe McDaniel & Associates don't know what they are talking about https://mcdan.com/


McDaniel has been in the business of providing third party reserve reports and certifications for over 60 years. Our team of professional engineers and geologists have evaluated assets in nearly every producing basin in the world and combine that knowledge and expertise with a detailed understanding of the various resource classification systems. McDaniel third party reserve reports are well known around the world and regarded by investors and financial institutions for their quality, consistency and reliability...


..... the market certainly doesn't put anywhere near the value till proven ...which I'm fine with .. professional engineers and geologists only have so much to go on at this stage .. could be much larger or smaller won't know much more till 2Q23-2H23

I'm more than happy to sit on my 2.3mill shares ... I personal think we could see 40-50c come into the picture next year ...

[JBmurc]

Nice ramp, he obviously has some already. You know this.

I know it sound prime ramp the whole MEGA billions of bbls .. but this isn't from me or other S/H's ..but Melbana's head of geophysics ... so maybe he's full of it ....
or maybe McDaniel & Associates don't know what they are talking about https://mcdan.com/


McDaniel has been in the business of providing third party reserve reports and certifications for over 60 years. Our team of professional engineers and geologists have evaluated assets in nearly every producing basin in the world and combine that knowledge and expertise with a detailed understanding of the various resource classification systems. McDaniel third party reserve reports are well known around the world and regarded by investors and financial institutions for their quality, consistency and reliability...


..... the market certainly doesn't put anywhere near the value till proven ...which I'm fine with .. professional engineers and geologists only have so much to go on at this stage .. could be much larger or smaller won't know much more till 2Q23-2H23

I'm more than happy to sit on my 2.3mill shares ... I personal think we could see 40-50c come into the picture next year ...

[FileAnt]

I have some MAY as well. Have not looked at it for ages. What has happened since the fires at the Russian built port?

[nztx]

A bit of a bounce today .. past the dip possibly and across the declining downward trend,
mind you there has been a bit of bounce previously before down trend resumed

Well supported in 2023 competition here as it heads toward production @ Alameda
- what could go wrong with a good farm-in partner, in an energy seeking country with Oil
cost as it is ;)

That's only one of a number of irons potentially to put in the fire that MAY have in their hand

Looks like the 4's, 5's & 6's have exited the party JB - may not see them again ;)

[JBmurc]

A bit of a bounce today .. past the dip possibly and across the declining downward trend,
mind you there has been a bit of bounce previously before down trend resumed

Well supported in 2023 competition here as it heads toward production @ Alameda
- what could go wrong with a good farm-in partner, in an energy seeking country with Oil
cost as it is ;)

That's only one of a number of irons potentially to put in the fire that MAY have in their hand

Looks like the 4's, 5's & 6's have exited the party JB - may not see them again ;)

Yeah looks really bullish at present I'm glad I added another 420k shares @ 5c ...might well not see those levels again and more so see 50c+ if all goes to plan over the next 12-24months..

[nztx]

Interesting - touched 8.2c during the day on both Aust exchanges :)

must be quite a few expecting the balloon to go up soon


the way some of HC keyboard experts are talking, they might be expecting the nest to all hatch
in hours of darkness overnight before tomorrow's opening ;)

[JBmurc]

Interesting - touched 8.2c during the day on both Aust exchanges :)

must be quite a few expecting the balloon to go up soon


the way some of HC keyboard experts are talking, they might be expecting the nest to all hatch
in hours of darkness overnight before tomorrow's opening ;)



MAY Vs peers ..., is very undervalued .. I personal think we should be over 10c to 11c just at whats known at present and what we have coming next Qty etc ...

[JBmurc]

The oil from the first well b4 the fire was worth 19c-23c with the low price cuban oil gets; however, the risk after tge fire is huge. Nobody answered my question. What happened since the fire?

Have you heard DYOR ??

I understood Cuba secured several Turkish floating power plants to fill the gap in the energy supply from the fire damage ... China looking to help with funds and to build new power plant etc ...

Energy is a #1 Cuba priority... AT PRESENT

So Melbana / Sonangol along with other Energy players in country have huge support from Cuban Govt
https://peoplesdispatch.org/2022/12/02/cuba-goes-on-a-diplomatic-tour-in-an-increasingly-multipolar-world/

[JBmurc]

The last large oil refinery built in usa was 1977 so I can’t see that happening in cuba any time soon.

Russian/Chinese fuels will be getting imported at present ...

Cuba has four refineries, all of which are owned by Cuba Petroleos, the state-owned oil and gas company...

the fire damage was done to the Matanzas Super Tanker Base .. seriously hurting the capacity of holding imported oil/fuels and exports etc ..

Cuba has always imported oil to refine into fuels locally around 50-60,000bopd ...

MAY/SGL Massive onshore muti Billion bbl discovery could well fill that import gap in time .... appraisal wells coming soon once Drill rig refurb has been done and mobilised ...

Obviously everyone want development to happen ASAP ... and Cuban Govt will be bending over backwards to the foreign investment in developing key Energy infrastructure ....

[Paddie]

MAY having another strong run today currently up 10%. I thought that there may have been a pullback and some consolidation around here but that is not looking likely.

[JBmurc]

MAY having another strong run today currently up 10%. I thought that there may have been a pullback and some consolidation around here but that is not looking likely.

the whole spec market is kicking higher this year ... may it continue ... I just need another few weeks and I can book a quick Qtr million profit and be much more stress free for the rest of the year ... MAY is going to be a big part of this 1Q23 profit

[nztx]

the whole spec market is kicking higher this year ... may it continue ... I just need another few weeks and I can book a quick Qtr million profit and be much more stress free for the rest of the year ... MAY is going to be a big part of this 1Q23 profit


Well done JB .. MAY is a favourite in the 2023 ASX Competition too, so the progress should be interesting

[clip]

A big thanks to whoever did the summary of most picked stocks, I bought may after that and its gone bonkers since

[JBmurc]

Well done JB .. MAY is a favourite in the 2023 ASX Competition too, so the progress should be interesting

Yes the metrics of MAY Cuban Oil assets are immense ..at present market value ..A$310mill imply's high risk value by the market major discount to asset backing ..

.... we could see min Billion bbl prospective resource within next couple years in this Cuban block-9 thats (300Mmbbls net MAY)

.... 2x wells 1H23 ..then if successive and showing commercial flow rates . we could see many more over the following year+

if they flow well and we have the ability to shift the oil . we could see MAY/SGL fill the 40-50,000bbls per day of demand CUBA oil imports

And if thy did just the Alameda-1 with 30-40 wells could supply Cuba Oil needs for the next 25yrs+



.. I'm sure Cuban Govt will be 110% behind with help from foreign interests to build the pipelines to refinery etc ...

[nztx]

A strong opening today 9.5c/9.6c on both exchanges , High so far today on Chi-x 9.8c

[Paddie]

After yesterdays close I was sure that MAY was entering a consolidation period. It has run strongly again today hitting 10.2c at one stage. Surely it can't keep this up?

[nztx]

Low/Hi today so far 9.3c/10.3c, currently 9.8c

[nztx]

They need to explain where they will sell the oil for it to be worth more. It is heaps of oil though.


As I understand it - Cupet get first call - anything they dont take can be exported / sold elsewhere

Pricing usually set at international pricing levels for both Cupet or sale offshore

[JBmurc]

As I understand it - Cupet get first call - anything they dont take can be exported / sold elsewhere

Pricing usually set at international pricing levels for both Cupet or sale offshore

I'm sure CUPET will take the lot till it surpasses 50kbbls per day ... pricing wise even with discounted rates the costs to produce onshore should be much lower as is shown elsewhere in Cuba..

[nztx]

Who, What ? Aye ? :)

Don't shoot, I just the hawk hanging around here with a small claw in the action :)

JB may know ?

[JBmurc]

What was tge API’s of the oil in the end?



tge ? API in Cuba esp in the recent history has been lower sub 22 API aka heavier crude oils(as to why Alameda-1 has only been given 5% prospective to the Billions barrel discovery) ... many signs from the deeper sections of Alameda point to higher APIs = medium API = higher prospective oil resources (IMHO 500-600Mmbbls)

Block-9 has had histrionic upper sheet drills return 22-24.5 API's in the past so Medium weight oil .... And as its known generally the deeper higher pressure hotter traps of Oil are lighter API grades than upper .... the heaviest of course the likes of TAR sands near surface

[JBmurc]

tge was ‘the’ with a missed key.


So nothing has changed since I last looked. lol

I would say 15c is fair value cos they got the third section. If was unrisked with good prices operating in usa it would be 50c-$1 ahahaha

Yes Cuban risk factors certainly in play much like African operations .. but thats where one must look these days to find the Monster Oil Discoveries ... you just don't get these monster Billion bbl discoveries onshore USA etc

Cuba Badly needs foreign capital injections and esp now with Russian being cut-off and restricted from Invasion Uk ... I'm confident Cuban officials + CUPET - SGL will bend over backwards to see Alameda into major production ....

but first we must know Pressure, porosity & permeability of the traps to work Recovery factors

If Good as we HOPE then it will be one of the greatest onshore oil discoveries in recent history...

– independently assessed resources(gross unrisked) OIP = 6.3Bill bbls

[JBmurc]

CUBA STANDARD — In what company CEO Leon Binedell hailed as “the best financial metrics since 2014,” Sherritt International Corp. posted a CDN$16.4 million profit on nearly doubled revenues in the first quarter, a turnaround from a net loss of CDN$1.9 million in the same quarter last year.

The Toronto-based mining and energy company — Cuba’s largest foreign investor — is seeing a boost to its bottom line thanks mainly to rising nickel prices, up nearly 50% from a year ago. Cuba sits on the world’s fourth-largest reserves of the metal, a key ingredient for battery production, while recent sanctions turned Russia — the third-largest nickel producer — off limits for most of the western world.

[nztx]

A Lightning strike started the fire at the storage tanks from memory

[Paddie]

Look at the finish today, I am happy as I have a good parcel of these but I am also waiting for the downside.

Rig and drilling announcements to look forward to soon.

[JBmurc]

I don’t think the refineries are built for the 20-28 api oil. Just saying

Not sure but they can be ..

[nztx]

Lightning lit my bbq the other day. They could just be downplaying it so as not to escalate. Try adding sabotage to ur search.


Nup ,, the fire spread from one tank to others I believe, and they couldn't get a handle on it before it spread.
Photos revealed some fairly crappy tank infrastructure that looks like it's been around for 50 or 60 + years
and not seen too much work or money thrown at it as improvement, which is probably fairly standard
MO for much of the infrastructure there, aging on with lengthy embargoes & restrictions .. just look
at the obvious age of the wheels making it around Cuba on improvised parts .. many from 40's & 50's ;)

[nztx]

When I looked big power plants in the usa are and they are the newer 50 yr old ones. They cost billions to build which is why nobody has made any recent large ones. They have advantages like producing ash felt over light oil refineries; however, I can’t see why Cuba would do that. The oil has to be shipped out probably. I think I am telling you the truth.

Don’t see the point in the continuous ramping of MAY. Just makes Australia look stupid.


Did you say you had a holding in MAY ? :)

I think at this early time heading towards production, the market has probably started
recognising possible early value, with more to come as it gets closer.
The current field & few drills are really just only part of MAY's interest with lots more to follow
both in Cuba and elsewhere.

If the market can smell black gold at this early stage right now, then maybe it's time to sit up ? :)

[nztx]

Meh I am selling them. I can not see production any time soon or decent money for the oil.


Can't you ? while you were thinking of posting, a 10.5c peak milestone on the goal posts was achieved :)

Did you manage to get in and quickly sell ?

Tomorrow - who knows .. it might rise a further few pegs too :)

but as of now they've gotten back to 9.8c a couple of hours later

[dyl.tm]

Loving the ride with MAY, first stock I’ve had after reading through the thread. Great commentary guys, appreciate it. I picked it up at .13c April 22 and have tipped in as I could while we’ve seen the low singe figures.

Question. Does anyone know what had them up over $1 in 07? If so is an old historical high like that involved in your decision making?

[nztx]

Nope wrong again mate I was in at 14c out at 10c.

I moved to CVN as a more sensible long term play. CVN will at least be worth more than a $1 one day.


Will it ? .. I had a few of them & bailed to jump into MAY :)

[nztx]

back at 9.9c on Chi-x .. the eager buyers can't be wrong can they ?

[nztx]

…and then I refresh YouTube, google AI is they funniest https://youtu.be/Q2Tp2r41-xY

Good luck with MAY guys I might jump in if it gets too low again.


I'll send you another heads up if lightning by chance gets anywhere close, or if you do venture
back in by accident, please have the common courtesy of telling us what you just bailed out of .. :)

May multibagger luck be with you .. just don't spread too much of the other around :)

[JBmurc]

Nope wrong again mate I was in at 14c out at 10c.

I moved to CVN as a more sensible long term play. CVN will at least be worth more than a $1 one day.

Yeah Good luck with CVN .been a right dog since SP peak was hit APL19 .. coming up 4yrs downtrend ...never know you might just time it right near the bottom ...

I don't think MAY has finished its run just yet .... might sell a few in the mid teens and if it makes the 20s a few more then see how it develops ..chance it could be 30c-40c later this year ... might well put some of my profits into the likes of CVN .. but prob more so HZN

[JBmurc]

Someone with jb in their name on hotcopper said that about BAS as well. Then boasted they had bought BAS this year and sold half for free carry. You ?

At an oil price of $86usd I have CVN reserves worth a share price of $0.666 lol
It is in between discovery and production so a long term safeish hold.

Probably plenty of time.

MAY can only get past 27c with light oil and nobody will pay that without light.


Nope ST78 on HotCopper..,I don’t go around wasting my time with BS .. I generally put my money where my mouth is .. IMHO forum talk doesn’t drive SP movements .. it’s more so pros/insto/spoh overall market sentiments companies mgmt etc ..retail usually the sheep that get pushed around .. good luck with your CVN long term hold …

I wouldn’t complain with 26-27c MAY for 23 ..

[nztx]

It already reached 19c in mid March 2022 - before any drilling :)

[nztx]

jd it was not jb. There is not much truth in what he says. Ramping down or up all day.


might be a member on here, who knows.. :)

did he scare you off HC ? ;)

[nztx]

7:10 AM —-^ lol

No I got banned. They will probably ban me here I suppose.

I was trying to tell Putin not to use nuclear weapons and show that many sound effects that say things like ‘kill poo tin’ are for me… not him. Jokes hard core... computer games. He probably knows the online memes are for me now.

Putin is under extreme pressure.

Think of me as almost every mythical secret agent and entity, not so secret.

did you say somewhere that you're in hospital ?

did you fall off your chair & suffer some injury when you got an HC ban ? ;)

I have difficulty trying to fathom how you reckon Putin might be reading HC
or even have time to / be bothered ..

By the way I like your suggestion on BAS but think you're underestimating MAY :)

[nztx]

What is a song that suits my MAY mood I thought. Refresh YouTube and hay presto… https://youtu.be/1iRbIYkccgw

Are there any good forums in Australia other than hotcopper? Not necessarily share forums.

No idea, but maybe you got kicked off one of the better over the ditch ?

[stoploss]

I am in a psyc ward yes. I use them to study other patents and ask them about their conditions. I can talk to everything around me. Some would say I am the devil. I can record it. There are multiple concepts talking.

Just any forum, not shares.

The Russians are not stupid. I am not random on YouTube selecting times (for 9 years). I am not random in the post numbers on hotcopper or they would have deleted my posts.

HotCopper is not great for ones mind either; however, the post numbers were fun.
I think this is Tesla god in 2023 ?

[clearasmud]

What is a song that suits my MAY mood I thought. Refresh YouTube and hay presto… https://youtu.be/1iRbIYkccgw

Are there any good forums in Australia other than hotcopper? Not necessarily share forums.
Yahoo finance or sharescene.com.
There are others

[JBmurc]

jd it was not jb. There is not much truth in what he says. Ramping down or up all day.

Hotcopper is full of deluded retailers that think their ramping or down-ramping will affect the SP to their benift

[Aotea]

Hotcopper is full of deluded retailers that think their ramping or down-ramping will affect the SP to their benift

Not the only thing deluded around here...

[nztx]

Hotcopper is full of deluded retailers that think their ramping or down-ramping will affect the SP to their benift


Another buy opportunity coming up ?

could be just the ant's pants of a further opportunity :)

[JBmurc]

Another buy opportunity coming up ?

Yeah major selling pressure once again ... going need more that TALK of forward drilling plan ... I haven't sold any wish I sold a few 10c !!!