Market doldrums

[850man]

I'm looking at my portfolio - near enough 7% decline over the last month, half of that in the last week (thanks Sharesight - bearer of good news). is it just my bad choices or is it bad times? Keen for other's opinions and coping strategies from those who may have been through this before.

[percy]

I'm looking at my portfolio - near enough 7% decline over the last month, half of that in the last week (thanks Sharesight - bearer of good news). is it just my bad choices or is it bad times? Keen for other's opinions and coping strategies from those who may have been through this before.

With out knowing what shares you own I can not comment.
My friends and I laugh,it seems if you want a share to go down buy it,want it to go up sell it.!!!
I think you should keep a note book and each time you buy a share write down why you bought it.
Then if it goes down, check the reasons you bought it.If the reasons remain the same ,hold on.If however the reasons [or the story] changes for the worse sell.
Research and time in stock selection is the most important thing to concentrate on.Same with any asset purchase.I often say the more research I do the better the luck I have.
All that said,sell at the first bad news.Usually downgrades come in threes.

[Muse]

All that said,sell at the first bad news.Usually downgrades come in threes.

or like, a thousand, if you are A2M :)

[Nor]

Down 7.32% in 4 weeks.

[percy]

or like, a thousand, if you are A2M :)

Yes that was/is incredible.

[ThaiJohn]

Interests rates on the rise so shares go out of favour. Typical cycle.

[Jaa]

Always good to compare your returns in Sharesight to a relevant index.

The MDX (NZX Mid Cap) is down 7.5% and the FNZ (NZ Top 50) is down 7.75% in the last week. So your returns are not out whack.

[thegreatestben]

Yep with you, -10% in the last month. Going to focus on other things and ride it out. It's definitely not just you/me.

[tango]

I'm holding although I did prune a couple of NZX and Nasdaq stocks last week before the drop

My NZX is only down -1.25% because FPH is +5.7% and comprises 41% of my NZ portfolio

[iceman]

6 holdings down in the last month, 6 up and 1 sideways. Total return +0.3%.
A tough market at the moment

[tango]

6 holdings down in the last month, 6 up and 1 sideways. Total return +0.3%.
A tough market at the moment

That’s impressive. What are you holding that has gone up in the last month?

[iceman]

That’s impressive. What are you holding that has gone up in the last month?

Should have said a good chunk of my NZ holdings are on the USX. Decentt FPH & BOT holdings (NZX) as well as a large SFF (USX) holding have kept my portfolio afloat in the last month

[tango]

Should have said a good chunk of my NZ holdings are on the USX. Decentt FPH & BOT holdings (NZX) as well as a large SFF (USX) holding have kept my portfolio afloat in the last month

Well done

You have just reminded me that I sent in an application to Jarden a year ago for access to USX and heard nothing. I must follow up

[Sideshow Bob]

Should have said a good chunk of my NZ holdings are on the USX. Decentt FPH & BOT holdings (NZX) as well as a large SFF (USX) holding have kept my portfolio afloat in the last month

Probably a small upside with some of the USX being relatively illiquid! Although small trades can move the share price.

Also helps when one of your holdings has a PE of 3.463!! :p

[Bjauck]

That’s impressive. What are you holding that has gone up in the last month? Were it not for my FPH, CNU & SCT on the other end of the see-saw, my NZ share portfolio would be down more.

[bottomfeeder]

More than likely omicron, is more transmissible, but less severe. Governments will encourage the spread and natural immunity, then the markets will react. Aahhhhh!

[nztx]

Around 26% up overall here in past month - mostly over Oz way, with reduced NZ focus until
more market confidence returns here

[Beagle]

The market has been a tough taskmaster these last 3 months. Actually the whole year has been a bit rough.
Looking at a graph of the NZX50 on direct broking it appears to have started September at 13.240 and ended this month at 12,719 so even after today's bounce its down almost exactly 4% in the last 3 months and that includes all dividends paid in that period ! Interest rate sensitive stocks have fared worse as the rapid rise in the risk free 10 year Govt stock rate has taken an even greater toll.

I read some article from Mark Lister of Craigs some time back and the gist of it was that to get great returns you need to embrace volatility and think of volatility in a positive way.
I think that's a lot easier said than done.

Tactics / Coping strategies I have tried to use to deal with the funk in the market include:-
1. Medicate the stress of this and Covid by eating more food, especially junk food - I definitely don't recommend this
2. Go for several good walks a week - Highly recommended
3. Take some chips off the table - you don't always need to be fully invested - Very highly recommended.
4. Give yourself a darn good talking too that one shouldn't expect perfection with one's stock selection and to always be making positive progress with your portfolio...there are times when you will go backwards for a while - I have had very limited success with that as I am too hard on myself
5. Live one day at a time and try and enjoy being in the present without obsessing about money - Moderately successful as far as I am concerned.

[Panda-NZ-]

Yes cash is looking good
S&P/nasdaq has gained so much its simply unbelievable.

[fastbike]

Down 3% cf NZX50 down ~4% since 1/9/21. C'est la vie. I sleep well at night.

[Muse]

The market has been a tough taskmaster these last 3 months. Actually the whole year has been a bit rough.
Looking at a graph of the NZX50 on direct broking it appears to have started September at 13.240 and ended this month at 12,719 so even after today's bounce its down almost exactly 4% in the last 3 months and that includes all dividends paid in that period ! Interest rate sensitive stocks have fared worse as the rapid rise in the risk free 10 year Govt stock rate has taken an even greater toll.

I read some article from Mark Lister of Craigs some time back and the gist of it was that to get great returns you need to embrace volatility and think of volatility in a positive way.
I think that's a lot easier said than done.

Tactics / Coping strategies I have tried to use to deal with the funk in the market include:-
1. Medicate the stress of this and Covid by eating more food, especially junk food - I definitely don't recommend this
2. Go for several good walks a week - Highly recommended
3. Take some chips off the table - you don't always need to be fully invested - Very highly recommended.
4. Give yourself a darn good talking too that one shouldn't expect perfection with one's stock selection and to always be making positive progress with your portfolio...there are times when you will go backwards for a while - I have had very limited success with that as I am too hard on myself
5. Live one day at a time and try and enjoy being in the present without obsessing about money - Moderately successful as far as I am concerned.

Insight post from someone I can tell has seen a few cycles.

[tango]

Give yourself a darn good talking too that one shouldn't expect perfection with one's stock selection and to always be making positive progress with your portfolio...there are times when you will go backwards for a while - I have had very limited success with that as I am too hard on myself


Best advice ever. We don't always get it right.

A close number 2 is

Medicate the stress of this and Covid by eating more food, especially junk food

Chocolate, sausages and chips make lockdown bearable ;)

[Panda-NZ-]

Best advice ever. We don't always get it right.

Chocolate, sausages and chips make lockdown bearable ;)

Alcohol is good (though im not a heavy drinker like most NZers). If only there was recreational cannibas as the safe choice.

[850man]

The market has been a tough taskmaster these last 3 months. Actually the whole year has been a bit rough.
Looking at a graph of the NZX50 on direct broking it appears to have started September at 13.240 and ended this month at 12,719 so even after today's bounce its down almost exactly 4% in the last 3 months and that includes all dividends paid in that period ! Interest rate sensitive stocks have fared worse as the rapid rise in the risk free 10 year Govt stock rate has taken an even greater toll.

I read some article from Mark Lister of Craigs some time back and the gist of it was that to get great returns you need to embrace volatility and think of volatility in a positive way.
I think that's a lot easier said than done.

Tactics / Coping strategies I have tried to use to deal with the funk in the market include:-
1. Medicate the stress of this and Covid by eating more food, especially junk food - I definitely don't recommend this
2. Go for several good walks a week - Highly recommended
3. Take some chips off the table - you don't always need to be fully invested - Very highly recommended.
4. Give yourself a darn good talking too that one shouldn't expect perfection with one's stock selection and to always be making positive progress with your portfolio...there are times when you will go backwards for a while - I have had very limited success with that as I am too hard on myself
5. Live one day at a time and try and enjoy being in the present without obsessing about money - Moderately successful as far as I am concerned.

Thanks Beagle, some useful tips. I also struggle with 4. but do alright with variations on 1. :D

[ThaiJohn]

Dow down 500 points o/n. Hang on folks...

[Nor]

Going to be some opportunities after all?

[nztx]

Going to be some opportunities after all?


Yes .. maybe .. my thoughts as well .. but I think further falls possible / likely
as the full extent of Lockdown carnage in the Northern Sector filters through
with other economic factors impacting that further .. interest rates / inflation
/ budget blow outs / RE deflation etc

Heading into the first quarter of 2022 could be very telling of reality at the cliff face ..
it may not look very pretty

Now up roughly 34% here in the month (mostly on across the Taz / limited NZ exposure )

[davflaws]

The market has been a tough taskmaster these last 3 months. Actually the whole year has been a bit rough.
Looking at a graph of the NZX50 on direct broking it appears to have started September at 13.240 and ended this month at 12,719 so even after today's bounce its down almost exactly 4% in the last 3 months and that includes all dividends paid in that period ! Interest rate sensitive stocks have fared worse as the rapid rise in the risk free 10 year Govt stock rate has taken an even greater toll.

I read some article from Mark Lister of Craigs some time back and the gist of it was that to get great returns you need to embrace volatility and think of volatility in a positive way.
I think that's a lot easier said than done.

Tactics / Coping strategies I have tried to use to deal with the funk in the market include:-
1. Medicate the stress of this and Covid by eating more food, especially junk food - I definitely don't recommend this
2. Go for several good walks a week - Highly recommended
3. Take some chips off the table - you don't always need to be fully invested - Very highly recommended.
4. Give yourself a darn good talking too that one shouldn't expect perfection with one's stock selection and to always be making positive progress with your portfolio...there are times when you will go backwards for a while - I have had very limited success with that as I am too hard on myself
5. Live one day at a time and try and enjoy being in the present without obsessing about money - Moderately successful as far as I am concerned.
Go to sea every day you can. Feed small snapper and bin the odd one that makes 30cm.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

For context, the S&P500 is only ~2.5% off all time highs.

13271

[Beagle]

Thanks Beagle, some useful tips. I also struggle with 4. but do alright with variations on 1. :D

Beware the side effects of strategy # 1 "Kovid Kilo's"...they're like an unwelcome relative that arrives and are very difficult to get rid of lol

[Waltzing]

if profits are down for 2023 its declare dividends from retained earnings and distribute profits from investment companies.

[Cyclical]

Quite pertinent this thread has resurfaced off the back to the recent doldrums.

My strategy...rebalance, buy the dip, DCA and all that stuff. There are opportunities to snap up heavily discounted stocks that will be back pushing new highs sooner or later. In some instances, X amount of dollars now is going to get you a 3rd more shares than the same amount of dollars would have done only a few months ago. Think of what that multiplier does when the shares return to their highs and beyond. Temper that with your investment horizon of course.

[alokdhir]

I dont know its the good results or technical support at 12100 ....but market rock solid at that ...if it keeps holding then much better time ahead ...so keep buying ...looks like its holding

[moose]

Is it just me or has anyone else felt that something is different these days? The market seems much more short-sighted than previously.
Its tempting to say its a result of the Sharesies-type crowd who certainly can have an influence on daily movements given our low volume market ( just think what would happen if the US based Gamestop meme investors decided to have a go at a NZX listed company)
But I wonder if the INSTOs are also looking at very short-term gains to try and manipulate their (1 year) returns?

Now I know that this is "sharetrader" not "(long-term) share investor" - but many/most of the wise-heads on this forum are getting close to retirement so have a ? more conservative view.

So...... we are probably entering (entered) a period of short-term volatility (Great for "traders"?- and the technical posts from these are always welcome) - is this now more volatile than previously due to the above? - If so does this mean anything to longer-term holders?

[Joshuatree]

A few years back i surmised the end of the mkt for us retail shareholders ,as we know.With bots,alogrhythms etc doing trades in fractions of seconds ,manipulating prices up and around etc.
Also

The longest bullmkt now teetering.PE's at or near new highs

Interest rates going up,future cash flows being discounted,shift to Value

Energy costs rising and staying high for years

Shortage of staff globally

Inflation

Bottlenecks and shortage of materials and stock globally continues

Quantitive Easing finishing in many countries

A new strain of Covid next? Etc etc

Risk on

=Volatility,good for traders but I've read 95% of amateur traders lose

Uncertainty and Volatility

[ratkin]

A few years back i surmised the end of the mkt for us retail shareholders ,as we know.With bots,alogrhythms etc doing trades in fractions of seconds ,manipulating prices up and around etc.
Also

The longest bullmkt now teetering.PE's at or near new highs

Interest rates going up,future cash flows being discounted,shift to Value

Energy costs rising and staying high for years

Shortage of staff globally

Inflation

Bottlenecks and shortage of materials and stock globally continues

Quantitive Easing finishing in many countries

A new strain of Covid next? Etc etc

Risk on

=Volatility,good for traders but I've read 95% of amateur traders lose

Uncertainty and Volatility

Just buy EBOS and sleep well at night

[Joshuatree]

Good point.There still are a few "blue chip" companies out there but they are priced accordingly.

[Beagle]

A few years back i surmised the end of the mkt for us retail shareholders ,as we know.With bots,alogrhythms etc doing trades in fractions of seconds ,manipulating prices up and around etc.
Also

The longest bullmkt now teetering.PE's at or near new highs

Interest rates going up,future cash flows being discounted,shift to Value

Energy costs rising and staying high for years

Shortage of staff globally

Inflation

Bottlenecks and shortage of materials and stock globally continues

Quantitive Easing finishing in many countries

A new strain of Covid next? Etc etc

Risk on

=Volatility,good for traders but I've read 95% of amateur traders lose

Uncertainty and Volatility

Throw in extreme geo political risk into the equation and there's no question these are extremely challenging times.
Couple of experts, if you can call them that because everyone has an opinion, on CNBC saying they think the US market is headed for a good old fashioned bear market and could decline by 30-40%. Nasdaq already down 19% from the peak as of 9.30 this morning but they were talking about the broader S&P 500 index.

I don't think many investors on here have ever experienced the long slow grind of a proper bear market where the bears claws get right under your skin and tear into the meat on you at any stage before. Cash and short term deposits look good to me, (greater than 70% portfolio allocation) and some money might finally get channeled into a boat shortly and then kick back and relax.

[Waltzing]

Global Market movements to the down side are in fact when you move from investing to a portion trading and can make for profits through any weather...

If you back office systems are good then its like a good boat that can motor on in any weather.

[850man]

My portfolio down almost 20% in 2022 so far. Struggling with hindsight and no liquidating as i did in early 2020. The bear at the door is new territory for me

[percy]

My portfolio down almost 20% in 2022 so far. Struggling with hindsight and no liquidating as i did in early 2020. The bear at the door is new territory for me

So far I am seeing excellent results from both my NZ and Aussie holdings.
I am expecting a poor result with my largest holding PAZ on Unlisted,however I will not be selling any shares,as their long term prospects are so exciting.

[Beagle]

The absolute paucity of liquidity in PAZ means people with a meaningful stake are stuck whether they like it or not !

That's a key risk that in my opinion is not talked about often enough in regard to investment on the unlisted market in general...that and the exceptionally weak disclosure requirements regarding half year "reporting" if you can even call it that.

You can ride it out no problem but sometimes in a quieter moment I wonder if other holders are really in as strong a position and are fully aware of the risks associated with very poor liquidity. I don't lose sleep over it though...everyone has to sign the unlisted application documents that they understand the extra risks involved so only have themselves to blame if they feel stuck.

[percy]

The absolute paucity of liquidity in PAZ means people with a meaningful stake are stuck whether they like it or not !

That['s a key risk that in my opinion is not talked about often enough in regard to investment on the unlisted market in general...that and the exceptionally weak disclosure requirements regarding half year "reporting" if you can even call it that.

All the large shareholders I have spoken with are happy holders.
I certainly am,being a shareholder since 2009..
The new Rolleston factory is progressing well ,and will be an asset NZ will be proud of,producing valuable export earnings.

Risk is people in business,private ,Unlisted or Listed.
PAZ is my largest holding as I know the people.They had a vision,and although it has taken time they are realising that vision.

PS My second largest holding is SFF Silver Fern Farms CoOp Ltd,which is also on unlisted.
Another company I am proud to be a shareholder of,which like PAZ earns valuable overseas currency.

[Cyclical]

I don't think many investors on here have ever experienced the long slow grind of a proper bear market where the bears claws get right under your skin and tear into the meat on you at any stage before.

I was expecting something like that towards the end of 2020 when everything shot up post March...I guess QE put a stop to that happening. Now QE is gone, and coupled with all those other headwinds as highlighted by Joshuatree, for sure we could be in for some tuff times on the market. Of course, our market went down last year, while the Nas and SP500 went nuts...

Anyway, greedy when fearful an' all that...

[Waltzing]

Market starting to bump up and down, mostly down...

Could be some nice buys ... unfortunately.

It always one crisis to the next ....

[percy]

I note the NZ Unlisted market has less volatility and is more stable than either NZX or ASX.
I guess Unlisted attracts more long term investors.

[Beagle]

More than 6,000 cases today and with Putin warning the West to not interfere in his war to rewrite history or there will be "consequences like you have never seen before" its clear a full scale invasion of Ukraine is underway with the overt threat of Nuclear war if the West gets involved. Seriously bad day, there's no way to sugar coat that and its not likely to get better anytime soon. Listed, unlisted NZX, ASX or any other bourse...I'm bloody glad I'm 70% plus in cash and short term deposits. With all the other headwinds JT clearly spelled out its clear at present the tide is going out at a very fast pace. Good time to sit on the beach and contemplate the meaning of life while we can still enjoy it.

[percy]

More than 6,000 cases today and with Putin warning the West to not interfere in his war to rewrite history or there will be "consequences like you have never seen before" its clear a full scale invasion of Ukraine is underway with the overt threat of Nuclear war if the West gets involved. Seriously bad day, there's no way to sugar coat that and its not likely to get better anytime soon. Listed, unlisted NZX, ASX or any other bourse...I'm bloody glad I'm 70% plus in cash and short term deposits. With all the other headwinds JT clearly spelled out its clear at present the tide is going out at a very fast pace. Good time to sit on the beach and contemplate the meaning of life while we can still enjoy it.

Although I enjoy sitting on the beach for half an hour or so I prefer my capital working 24/7.
Firms I am invested in;Silver Fern Farms,PAZ,Seeka,providing thousands of jobs for workers,and earning valuable export income.
Heartland providing capital for people to live a better lifestyle,new kitchen,car or hip replacement.Steel and Tube making sure the building industry has the steel they need to keep thousands in the sector working.Genesis providing power not just for my heat pump,but for so many businesses using power.Spark for phone and internet.
The market may have doldrums,but everyday the companies I invest in, over come all obstacles and thrive.
In fact they are doing so well they are paying me bigger dividends.

[winner69]

@G_T_Davies on Twitter …works at HHG
As we head into phase 3, the NZX is having its worse day since March 23 2020, which, coincidently was the first day I worked at home as we headed into the first lock down. Seems a lifetime ago.