2021 - The year in review

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/market-watch-there-have-been-a-few-landmines-2021-a-year-in-review/KT2ZWBE23LQSHLSPG3IZ6RXNKA/

Feel like you've had a tough year in more ways than one ? You're not alone. The NZX50 is down a few percent year to date and for Aucklanders the lockdown has been absolutely brutal. Worst year on the market for the index in more than a decade.

Is anyone thinking of putting their hand up to run the 2022 share picking competition ? I would if I had the IT skills.

Prospects for 2022 ? I'm not especially positive to be honest. Probably more of the same with inflation staying stubbornly high. interest rates higher, supply chain challenges enduring and more Covid variants raising their ugly head. If we're lucky we might see the NZX50 eek out a high single digit return next year.

[Oliver Mander]

Hi all...Much as I hate not to do this, I probably won't put my hand up for the 2022 picks organisation :-(. I love doing it, but have not been able to put the time into it that I expected. Quite happy to support others though. Sorry to let everyone down like this...

[Beagle]

Totally understandable Oliver with all your new responsibilities. A huge thank you on behalf of all of us for the enormous amount of time and effort you have put in to run the competition for so many years which has been a lot of fun for everyone. I would run it myself but old dogs with little to no IT skills are better to spend their time of sniffing out bargains and trouble and barking about them on here. I might try and conjure up a special bark for my 20,000th post soon.

NZX50 inclusive of all dividends down 4.4% year to date. Wow ! https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/127239345/nzx50-index-slips-as-investors-eat-into-wednesdays-gains

[Dassets]

Hear hear!

[Biscuit]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/market-watch-there-have-been-a-few-landmines-2021-a-year-in-review/KT2ZWBE23LQSHLSPG3IZ6RXNKA/

Feel like you've had a tough year in more ways than one ? You're not alone. The NZX50 is down a few percent year to date and for Aucklanders the lockdown has been absolutely brutal. Worst year on the market for the index in more than a decade.

Is anyone thinking of putting their hand up to run the 2022 share picking competition ? I would if I had the IT skills.

Prospects for 2022 ? I'm not especially positive to be honest. Probably more of the same with inflation staying stubbornly high. interest rates higher, supply chain challenges enduring and more Covid variants raising their ugly head. If we're lucky we might see the NZX50 eek out a high single digit return next year.

It's always darkest before the dawn. 2022 is going to be a smashing year. By the end of next year no one will be talking about covid, tourism will be ramping up, NZX50 will be up 20%, we will all be much richer and the Labour government will be hitting their stride mid-term pushing through social reform.

[davflaws]

What are you smoking and where can I get some?

[RupertBear]

What are you smoking and where can I get some?

:lol::lol::lol::lol:

[Bjauck]

It's always darkest before the dawn. 2022 is going to be a smashing year. By the end of next year no one will be talking about covid, tourism will be ramping up, NZX50 will be up 20%, we will all be much richer and the Labour government will be hitting their stride mid-term pushing through social reform.
Has somebody has been quaffing the brandy before it gets into the Christmas plum pudding:eek2:

[nztx]

What are you smoking and where can I get some?


I'll third that too ;)

[percy]

It's always darkest before the dawn. 2022 is going to be a smashing year. By the end of next year no one will be talking about covid, tourism will be ramping up, NZX50 will be up 20%, we will all be much richer and the Labour government will be hitting their stride mid-term pushing through social reform.

The excitement builds..
Bring it on..

[Waltzing]

"we will all be much richer and the Labour government will be hitting their stride mid-term pushing through social reform."

and they will be trying to find your family jewels... 400 individuals were sent letters out to ask you all where are your jewels...

2022 is the year they try to spring a capital gains tax on your silver, gold, paintings, wine, stamp collections, NFT's , boats, ancient weapons of war.. medals.. second hand cars... because they HATE YOU... yes you wanna be Buffets and Beagles, Winners and Grinners...and high flyers...:eek2:

[davflaws]

because they HATE YOU... yes you wanna be Buffets and Beagles, Winners and Grinners...and high flyers...:eek2:

Sounds more like YOU hate them .....

[justakiwi]

Are you drunk or high? :huh:


2022 is the year they try to spring a capital gains tax on your silver, gold, paintings, wine, stamp collections, NFT's , boats, ancient weapons of war.. medals.. second hand cars... because they HATE YOU... yes you wanna be Buffets and Beagles, Winners and Grinners...and high flyers...

[Bjauck]

"we will all be much richer and the Labour government will be hitting their stride mid-term pushing through social reform."

and they will be trying to find your family jewels... 400 individuals were sent letters out to ask you all where are your jewels...

2022 is the year they try to spring a capital gains tax on your silver, gold, paintings, wine, stamp collections, NFT's , boats, ancient weapons of war.. medals.. second hand cars... because they HATE YOU... yes you wanna be Buffets and Beagles, Winners and Grinners...and high flyers...:eek2: Absolutely no evidence that labour will do that.

Your location is set as Sweden. They have a 30% flat CGT on capital gains from property there. Internationally a CGT on investment property is the norm. Yet Ardern has ruled one out in NZ for as long as she is PM. So where is the LOVE for that?

[Panda-NZ-]

It's rather unfair that Luxon pays 0% tax. Neither party currently seems willing to fix it.

[Waltzing]

Well where do you suggest is the best place to hide the jewels....

its pretty rude of the Bolsheviks to even send the letters in the first place....

remember the french revolution??

2022 could be the NZ year of the Bolsheviks at gates...

:ohmy:

Why track every sellable piece of silver you own into a national database and then say "But we are going to delete it after we collect it"

what a joke but not a joke if your sent a letter...and 400 have been sent the letter from the IRD...

Yes land taxes are common and will probably come here but when they come for your family silver its GUNS at the Gates...

[Panda-NZ-]

Have some patriotism, sir. do something to earn that 0% tax rate.

[justakiwi]

Just as well you're in Sweden then. We don't need or want that attitude here.


.... when they come for your family silver its GUNS at the Gates...

[Panda-NZ-]

Prospects for 2022 ? I'm not especially positive to be honest. Probably more of the same with inflation staying stubbornly high. interest rates higher, supply chain challenges enduring and more Covid variants raising their ugly head. If we're lucky we might see the NZX50 eek out a high single digit return next year.

Hope so, investing overseas is much better for NZ.

We can avoid bubbles here, but cash in on speculation overseas.

[Waltzing]

"Just as well you're in Sweden then. We don't need or want that attitude here."

You better go and do a survey of how many business people are pissed in NZ right now.

the attitude is here in NZ.

wait till your over run by the Bolsheviks... you have no experience of this yet but this is the first time for many.

A number of business people in NZ are outraged the IRD wants to know where their jewels are.

the british labour party sent the disciples of Clement Richard Attlee here to NZ... They want your money.


When they come for you grands ma's silver are you just going to hand it over? Or your horse racing Cups you had wanted to sell at auction in London.. your paintings? and Vintage Cars?

They will put their boots up on your Hunting lodge tables...:eek2:

Currently wintering over from the VIRUS in NZ.

[Panda-NZ-]

There's an extensive EU bureaucracy with rules on the curves of vegetables among other things.

So little to no credibility there. Maybe the swede resident uses NZ as a tax haven?

[nztx]

It's rather unfair that Luxon pays 0% tax. Neither party currently seems willing to fix it.


Is it ? ;)

How about the rest of the 75% of Kiwi Taxpayers who pay no tax, but are in effect Net Tax Reciprients ? ;)

How did that happen ?

Who is keeping all those Net Tax Reciprients afloat & paying up for that lot ? :)

[Panda-NZ-]

Who is keeping all those Net Tax Reciprients afloat & paying up for that lot ? :)

Workers pay tax to sometimes waste on business subsidies.

[Waltzing]

"15-30% tax rate."

15% GST here in NZ.

GUARD your family silver ... they are coming for it...

There will be a Dooms day book for NZ soon!!! :t_up:

Oh no MR B will have to document his bowl of bones!!!!

[artemis]

It's rather unfair that Luxon pays 0% tax. Neither party currently seems willing to fix it.


Is that what Mr Luxon has said?

[Balance]

It's rather unfair that Luxon pays 0% tax. Neither party currently seems willing to fix it.

Provide the link or source.

And what about Whanau Ora? Who set it up?

[Muse]

Happy to pay my share of tax as legislated. Appreciate the IC's, top up to 39% through RWT at year end. Had my PAYE deducted on my salary when I was working in the company I owned. FIF tax as and when required. And I wouldn't mind a traditional capital gains tax - say 15% on assets held more than a year, marginal rate for less. But what irritates me is when I hold assets for years and years and years, enjoying dividends along the way, buying because the company was doing something interesting (funding it to grow, for the dividends, a long term expansion plan), then got taken over or the circumstances of that company changed (say stopped paying dividends or something counter to the rational I had when I invested into it) the argy bargy I have to go through with my accountant on if its on revenue account or capital account and the subsequent reviews I get by the IRD. If you want a capital gains tax - introduce one, but wish the Gov & IRD would stop trying to niggle their way around the lack of one. If you tread cautiously, as I do, and don't take unnecessary loopholes or act in bad faith, then you shouldn't feel persecuted for *only* paying tax exactly as set out in our tax legislation as set out by our elected MPs. Those little black letters asking individuals to detail their assets belongs in the bin.

[davflaws]

..... when they come for your family silver its GUNS at the Gates...

This is the sort of bat**** crazy talk that bedevils the US. We don't need or want it here.

Go away!

[Muse]

This is the sort of bat**** crazy talk that bedevils the US. We don't need or want it here.

Go away!

davflaws - was reading about you in the herald today - pretty cool mate. good work.

[davflaws]

davflaws - was reading about you in the herald today - pretty cool mate. good work.

I hope that was about the stock picking contest rather than exposing my secret life as an international nude barbed wire fence hurdler.

I got really lucky one year. Fortunately I pick stocks from my portfolio (though weighted differently) and made a few bucks. But that was sheer luck.

This year reality bit. ATM, PX1, OCA. Nuff said!

[Beagle]

davflaws - was reading about you in the herald today - pretty cool mate. good work.

Don't tease. Got a link ?

Currently running 42 out of 360 in the 2021 competition with about a 23% gain for the year against the NZX50 dropping ~4% so I suppose that's a pretty good result. OCA my only loser in the share competition and my real portfolio for 2021 after a stellar year in 2020 when I doubled my money on it.

I wish somebody with IT skills would step up to the plate and run the 2022 competition.

[Panda-NZ-]

NZX has exceeded the pre-corona peak of 12k compared to Australia.

10% vs 4% and even with no interest rate hike until 2024.

[Beagle]

I hope that was about the stock picking contest rather than exposing my secret life as an international nude barbed wire fence hurdler.

I got really lucky one year. Fortunately I pick stocks from my portfolio (though weighted differently) and made a few bucks. But that was sheer luck.

This year reality bit. ATM, PX1, OCA. Nuff said!

Ouch, you really hit the "trifecta" there !

[percy]

Ouch, you really hit the "trifecta" there !

Usual good year for me.Up,down and the same.
Core holdings which I will continue to hold.

The Same....SPK finished the year where it started,but paid great divies..
The Down...GNE.Down 18% for the year,but paid great divies.
The Ups.....HGH Up 43.55%,and paid good divies.
................PAZ Pharmazen Ltd.on Unlisted.up 29%.My largest holding.
................SFF Silver Fern Farms Ltd on Unlisted.Up 57%,and paid a great divie .My 2nd largest holding.

[Beagle]

Yeah pretty good year for me with strong gains on HGH, TRA and PAZ, (thank you and now realised gains), very good realized gains and dividends on WHS and Barramundi warrants with a large stake being some of the highlights. 14% for HLG inclusive of dividends is not too shabby in a market down 4%. ARV have done okay as have ARG. Bit disappointed with how GNE and OCA are presently being treated by the market but they are good companies and I am looking for better things from them in 2022.

Finishing up the year with my portfolio up 24% compared to December 2020 (a 28% outperformance compared to the NZX50). Satisfied with that.
Lot of cash to deploy for 2022.
BOT will get some of it and HLG. More international diversification is coming. Some bonds might also get a look in if they tick up to 5% or a little higher. 2022 is going to be an interesting year with inflation and interest rates providing more headwinds for the market.
How I feel about my 2021 portfolio performance...good hunting, job done.
13317

How I still feel about my portfolio performance in 2020. How many extra dog bones can you fit into storage in one year !! WOW what a year that was !! I guess it was always going to be impossible to replicate this year13318

[percy]

I think we some times forget how rewarding the share market can be.
OK we may have the odd year when we are well down.ie 1987,2001,9/11 and GFC,how ever, the good years are incredible with a sensible portfolio.
Poor performers sold at their first downgrade,and good performers added to on upgrades.Simple.And it really works...lol.

[Panda-NZ-]

I think we some times forget how rewarding the share market can be.

Certainly more than a term deposit at full PIE tax rates.

[Panda-NZ-]

NZX up 1.1% today.

More people moving out of residential property and into shares?

[Shareguy]

Well what a year it’s been. The NZX looks like it’s going to finish the year in the red. My NZX portfolio looks like finishing the year with a over 50 percent return (unrealised gains) the best on record for me.

The main contributors are Stu, Rak and Skt. I recently sold 25 percent of my Skt for future opportunities and to participate in the Ebos Cap raise.

The disappointments were Oca, Gne and Cvt. Cvt did ok but was expecting more.

As far as 2022 goes I’m still bullish on Stu and Rak and overweight on both but won’t be selling at current prices.

Thanks to all the posters on here. And all the best for Xmas and 2022.

[winner69]

Well what a year it’s been. The NZX looks like it’s going to finish the year in the red. My NZX portfolio looks like finishing the year with a over 50 percent return (unrealised gains) the best on record for me.

The main contributors are Stu, Rak and Skt. I recently sold 25 percent of my Skt for future opportunities and to participate in the Ebos Cap raise.

The disappointments were Oca, Gne and Cvt. Cvt did ok but was expecting more.

As far as 2022 goes I’m still bullish on Stu and Rak and overweight on both but won’t be selling at current prices.

Thanks to all the posters on here. And all the best for Xmas and 2022.

Well done shareguy … a record to be broken in 2022. The disappointments in 2021 will be the stars in 2022 and the others will continue to rise …..me thinks you well positioned

I’ve no idea how I’ve gone….but I think I’ve done really well …..I don’t bother keep track of money things these days …not worth the bother ….and don’t even know what I’m worth. Last year my daughter refinanced a property I had a share in …her bank wanted me to disclose my assets and weekly budget etc ….I said you must be joking and my daughter told her bank manager he’s got zillions so he gave up asking. (Had to do the MLA stuff though ha ha)

Good luck for 2022 shareguy …but you don’t seem to need luck

[Shareguy]

Thanks winner, sounds like you had a good one too . All the best to you. Merry Xmas

[peat]

Year the year has been a bit average from my speculative approach.
Not too bad from an investment approach tho
I think maybe need to not try so hard and let if flow
I'm back in the corporate sector again. only checking prices at the end of the week. if that. not getting to read the forums either!

[Rossimarnz]

A mixed year for me. Across the portfolio I was down 3.4% but without ATM I was up 4%. Despite the loss during the year on ATM it is a share that had realised an annual return for me of 194% p.a. over the past 6 or so years before I exited this year - so not all bad news and a demonstration of how hard it can be to exit a profitable share.

Exits this year - ATM, PX1. New entries this year - FPH, MFT, ARB, THL (held previously).

Best returns this year - HGH, EBO and THL.

Return on small Aussie portfolio -1.4% over approx 9% of total portfolio
Return of offshore ETF's +16% on approx 11% of portfolio

Thanks everyone for your contributions this year. I am not a big poster but I do listen to the range of opinions on offer here and appreciate that it is a range.

[Shareguy]

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/winners-and-losers-in-2021-markets

[Balance]

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/winners-and-losers-in-2021-markets

2021 NZX50 TOP 5* as at 17 Dec (2020 performance)

Sky Television +70 percent (-57 percent / Bottom 5)Skellerup +64 percent (+50 percent)Heartland +40 percent (-10 percent)EBOS +30 percent (+18 percent)Mainfreight +30 percent (+62 percent)
*Based on price change between Jan 4 and Dec 17

2021 NZX50 BOTTOM 5* as at 17 Dec (2020 performance)

A2 Milk -53 percent (+43 percent)Meridian Energy -44 percent (+50 percent)Synlait Milk -36 percent (-43 percent)Pushpay Holdings -32 percent (+78 percent / Top 5)Ryman Healthcare -19 percent (-10 percent)

[GlennS]

2021 NZX50 TOP 5* as at 17 Dec (2020 performance)

Sky Television +70 percent (-57 percent / Bottom 5)Skellerup +64 percent (+50 percent)Heartland +40 percent (-10 percent)EBOS +30 percent (+18 percent)Mainfreight +30 percent (+62 percent)
*Based on price change between Jan 4 and Dec 17

2021 NZX50 BOTTOM 5* as at 17 Dec (2020 performance)

A2 Milk -53 percent (+43 percent)Meridian Energy -44 percent (+50 percent)Synlait Milk -36 percent (-43 percent)Pushpay Holdings -32 percent (+78 percent / Top 5)Ryman Healthcare -19 percent (-10 percent)

While technically true, the stats for MEL don’t paint an accurate picture for this stock as the -44% is measured from around the huge price peak occurring in early Jan 2021. For much of last year this was a $5 stock, and it’s now only marginally below that level.

[bull....]

good yr for me 38% return from NZ portfolio ( div's not included ) vrs negative NZ50 index return so very pleased to have outperformed .
this does not include my oversea's investments which was my biggest weighting this yr of the portfolio


these are some stocks i have commented on i liked on this site and they have done really well
i have held or traded these this yr and still retain a few

SKL up 69% YTD
NZM up 105% ytd
brw up 62% ytd
whs up 49% ytd
agl up 31% ytd
bgp up 29% ytd
ift up 10% ytd


there are a few i have traded only
such as oca hlg mel zel skt tra vgl cvt scl fph spk sek etc etc to name a few 74 trades this yr in NZ only many more offshore lol

anyway good luck to everyone and enjoy your xmas break

[Snoopy]

It's always darkest before the dawn. 2022 is going to be a smashing year. By the end of next year no one will be talking about covid, tourism will be ramping up, NZX50 will be up 20%, we will all be much richer and the Labour government will be hitting their stride mid-term pushing through social reform.


A couple of weeks ago I had snuck inside the Top 50 in Oliver's competition. But due to the year end slump of SCT and SKC, I am now struggling to hang on inside the top 100. Oh well, I knew the year would be hard on my 'dividend' strategy with Spark, representative of my telecommunications holdings, down 3.1% for the year and Mercury, representative of my power company holdings down 6.9%. Despite this, my finance investments, represented by TRA, up a stunning 40%, and SCT, representative of my export centered investments +37% (despite the recent decline) pulled my competition return (pretty close to my real return) up to 11.6% for the year (so far, ever hopeful!, c.f. 19.9% for 2020, 20.5% for 2019 and 11.1% over 2018). Any way you look at it, that is still a large outperformance over the NZX50 for the year 2021 (which looks to be finishing down 3% for the year). So I can't really complain, as part of my return included a steady supply of dividends along the way. I am a dividend hound at heart and didn't buy or sell shares in any of my 'representative 5' during the year.

I don't have any great insights as to where the market will go in 2022. But with rising interest rates I expect 'more of the same'. I might take the opportunity to top up on my telecommunications and power sector sub portfolios should share prices there fall further. Happy Christmas and New Year to everyone.

SNOOPY

[winner69]

Hey snoops. …. Oliver picked SCT in the Brokers Tips thingie (on behalf of NZSA)

You going to be in for a fabulous 2022

[Eden]

Learned some good lessons during 2021, including when to stop flogging dead horses (ATM, SAN). Goal for 2022 is to recognise the nags before getting in the saddle.

Had some winners too (SKT, SCL and Aussie financials etf ASF), while OCA, ARV and HLG made up the balance of the portfolio at year-end. 9% up for the year.

Thanks to everyone on Sharetrader for sharing your wit and wisdom through the year.

[Rawz]

I am up 16.9%

Took 50% loss on PLX and 22% loss on EVO.

Big gain on MHJ 68% and solid performance from TRA, EBO, FBU & RBD. Came in late to RAK and STU but still picked up some tidy gains.

CVT, SEK, OCA and FPH did average.

Learnt a heck of a lot this year. The learnings are worth more than the gains and will serve me well in 20-30 years time when my portfolio is worth substantially more than it is today.

I have realized that I should stick to what I know. I.e. Worst performer PLX- I didn't truly understand the company or the market or what the McD contract was actually worth. I didnt know how to value it or research it. Compare this to my best performer MHJ- easy to value, easy to understand the business model, easy to understand managements strategy, easy to understand the macro backdrop impacting sales, easy to understand the PnL and balance sheet etc etc.

Going forward it will be unlikely that I will invest in a loss making entity like BLT or IKE or even ERD. Unless they can articulate a clear path to profitability- such as HMY; was loss making, currently breakeven and next few years will generate profits. I realize that I may miss the best gains of the next 'ATM' but I am okay with that and will happily take the modest late stage gains.

Guess one just needs to figure out what type of investor they are and stick to it. "Compounding is the 8th wonder of the world", all I need is 10% return a year for the next 30 years and I will retire a very rich man

Big thanks to the frequent posters on this site that freely offer up their wisdom and knowledge. This site is incredibly valuable to be honest. Often posters find substantial value in companies before analysts or fund managers do.

May we all have a blessed 2022

[hamish]

Simplified my NZX holdings this year. In part due to spending more focus, scaling investment into the ASX and US markets - View NZX portfolio as 'set and forget' to simplify my input, along with a 'focus on quality' approach.

Had a satisfactory (Mainfreight speak) year. Stocks I hold and why below.

MFT - Global growth, deep industry understanding, tailwinds due eCommerce of everything, strong culture & leadership (best NZ Co. in my view). Bought in twice.
EBO - Growth is in their DNA, investment and adjacency acquisition mindset. Bought in once. Have put in for $50k SPP cap raise.
IFT - Growth, use 'cash generating platforms' to invest in social 'platforms' (ex. according to Marko). Bought in once. Yield + DRP is a bonus
HGH - Held since a Percy post a few years back made me look into them. Consistent growth YOY, leadership does what is says - somewhat understated, invests in new markets, products and platforms. Held all year / no trades. Yield + DRP is a bonus
MEL - Steady long run assets. Big up and down due inclusion on the EFT/MCSI? indexes. In hindsight, probably could/should have sold at over $9 and bought back in cheaper....I like the look-ahead investments in future green (eg possible hydrogen, solar farms etc). Yield + DRP is a bonus.
FPH - Longterm hold for growth. Tailwinds. 15%(?I forget) revenue re-invested back into R&D, so always looking to develop that next product. CY21 was a year of consolidation (imo) after strong CY20 due COVID. Greater production scale and product saturation 'should' bode well for CY22+
RYM - Disappointing SP results this year, will continue to hold. Quality Co - I have some emerging reservations on leadership though. New village builds (Melb in particular) to be delivered next year, so SP may get re-rating once these delivered? Probably my least 'conviction' at present.

Also hold MLN and BRM as non-active (from me) exposure to AU/US also. Participated fully in warrants and DRP.. I think of them as a YOY steady tax imputed gain engine. Set and forget - The Fisher people have been safe hands past years. Lagged in 2nd half CY21(macro pressures), I actually further suspect SP may drop to 1.35 and 0.90 respectively, if so, will try buy in more in CY22.

Sold out of FRE, RBD, SKC, WBC during the year, mainly to re-invest back in to the above.
.
Can't see much/any change for CY22. I 'may' add either IKE (due possible tailwinds from US/Biden Infrastructure Bill) or PPH (rightly beaten up in CY21, overly so?). Add a little risk to the above - it's kinda a safe and boring Portfolio on the surface (but hopefully innovative and investment driven beneath)

All the best all for next year and safe holidays.
Cheers

[Chinesekiwi]

This is the sort of bat**** crazy talk that bedevils the US. We don't need or want it here.

Go away!

Here here!

The US is totally poked due to ugly political tribalism and rampant religious fundamentalism - this has no place in NZ.

It’s not who we are. I generally vote blue but that doesn’t preclude me from applauding the red team when they do well.

Keep calm kiwis 😊

[Beagle]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976519792/nz-shares-break-nine-year-winning-streak.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+31+Dec+ 2021