2022 NZX Stock Picking Comp

[peetter]

Hello Everyone,

Oliver is busy, so I volunteered to run the competition. Oliver was kind enough to share his secrets to help me out, so I'll be running it based on his model. Please bear with me while I'm getting up to speed.

The rules are the same as 2021.

Rules:
1) Pick FIVE different NZX-listed equity instruments (incl. Smartshares and foreign companies listed in NZ).
- Companies/Funds with a market cap of less than $15m may not be selected.
2) Please also make a SIXTH pick - this will be used as a 'backup preference' should one of your picks delist or merge during the year. It won't cover companies that are placed in liquidation or dissolved.
3) Each pick has an equal weighting. You cannot pick the same option more than once.
4) Picks in by 7pm January 4th 2022 (New Zealand time); ie, prior to trading opening.

Returns calculations
1) Each will start with a notional portfolio of $50,000 ($10,000 per pick)
2) Returns will be calculate from the last closing price of 2021 (Dec 31st 2021) to the last closing price of 2022.
3) Its a 'total return' comp, so Dividends will be included - but NOT benefits from imputation credits or other tax-specific benefits.
4) Rights issues are included according to a formula that does not increase capital, but recognises a capital gain/loss on the rights for the year. We may have to do this manually, but will cross that bridge when we come to it.
5) If a selection delists or otherwise somehow dissolves; it will be kept but manually adjusted in your selections to reflect the realised situation resulting from the event causing this. The realisation will then be "re-invested" in your backup preference (see 2), allowing the opportunity to continue participation on a level playing field.
6) Winner is the person who has the largest %age increase.

Entries are closed!

Results for Market close 21/01/2022: https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjjPhZKAb80mJG2Ed?e=C0WPda

If there is a stock missing from the picklist on the survey form - let me know and I will sort it quickly!

May the odds be ever in your favour!

peetter

[Grimy]

Thanks for doing this peetter.

[Oliver Mander]

VERY well done peetter! And thank you.

[Beagle]

Thanks for running it peetter, good on you, great to see a new generation of investor stepping up to the plate and making a great contribution for us all to enjoy. Thanks again to Oliver Mander for running it in the past for so many years I've lost count, you're a champion mate !

[iceman]

Thanks peeter and thanks Oliver for your great work to date. Much appreciated and has created a bit of fun. I love how it was easy to look up in Sharesight.

[davflaws]

Kia ora peeter
Thank you for stepping up into Oliver's big shoes.
My picks reflect my portfolio:
OCA, BLT, PX1, PEB, HGH, and SKL for the sixth.

[thegreatestben]

Kia ora peeter
Thank you for stepping up into Oliver's big shoes.
My picks reflect my portfolio:
OCA, BLT, PX1, PEB, HGH, and SKL for the sixth.

davflaws, there's a link you need to follow to enter - https://forms.office.com/r/SQ3hBv5RSN

Have entered similarly, HGH, OCA, HMY, PEB, SKT, NZX

[davflaws]

davflaws, there's a link you need to follow to enter -https://forms.office.com/r/SQ3hBv5RSN

Have entered similarly, HGH, OCA, HMY, PEB, SKT, NZX

Thank you

I was a bit slow to edit my post after reading the original instructions (real men don't read the instructions unless all else fails!). I followed the link and recorded my selections.

[Shareguy]

Thankyou Peetter for running this and to Oliver also. Have entered for the first time.

[pierre]

Hi peetter
My picks are in. Thanks for running the comp for 2022 - much appreciated.

[dumbfounded]

Hi Peetter - entered for the first time and thanks for running the 2022 competition. Much appreciated!

[pedro.nz]

Many thanks peeter

[Rawz]

1335813359

[Jay]

Thank you Peetter for running this and to Oliver previously.
Just entered my picks also.

[beetills]

Thanks to comps present runner and past runners

[nztx]

Thanks Peetter for running this for 2022

Entered my picks for the first time yesterday

[Alekhine]

My Picks:
HGH
OCA
TRA
SKL
DGC

6th pick ARV

[Ferg]

With a name like that, I can't help but post: Nf6....!

Unless you have done this already, you need to submit your picks here (https://forms.office.com/pages/responsepage.aspx?id=PqsWG_a440-fPi23_lSfastVfAfyVnxPrrNih2LML8xUMDlKVk0wWFdVRUlYQ kM5V0RFRDM3STlBQy4u).

My Picks:
HGH
OCA
TRA
SKL
DGC

6th pick ARV

[Alekhine]

Thank you Ferg. Yes, I have already. Just making sure that I am on record.

.....and yes I do often play 1...Nf6, but not many strong chess players in these parts, so I have to play online.

[weasel]

I had a look at the past performance of the brokers. It's interesting to see that if you had bought the full basket of broker picks (at proportions according to the number of brokers who picked them) then you would have got a pretty decent 14%. However, if you had simply bought all stocks that more than one broker picked, you would have been slightly negative for the year.

[Alekhine]

I am not sure how to start a new thread, but maybe we should also have a fun competition for who can pick the combined worst five stocks for 2022. I would be interested to see which stocks people really hate. :t_down:

[777]

I am not sure how to start a new thread, but maybe we should also have a fun competition for who can pick the combined worst five stocks for 2022. I would be interested to see which stocks people really hate. :t_down:

Select NZX forum and scroll to the bottom of list and select "Post New Thread"

[Grimy]

Or just scroll to the bottom of the current competition. I'm close to winning that end........

[na2m1]

You are an absolute LEGEND for doing this

[Muse]

thanks for doing this. first time playing this game - should be fun, as 2022 looks to be another 'interesting' year. My picks aren't to win any balanced portfolio awards - so it will either be smashing, or they will be smashed! :)

[newbieinvestor]

Almost feels safer to pick a mix of shares & smartshare investment funds to weather the 'interesting' year 2022 might be:t_up:


@Peeter - Thanks for running this competition.



thanks for doing this. first time playing this game - should be fun, as 2022 looks to be another 'interesting' year. My picks aren't to win any balanced portfolio awards - so it will either be smashing, or they will be smashed! :)

@Fiordland Moose - Any interesting dark horses in your portfolio that might bolt the stable or crash out ?:)

[Bobdn]

Thanks Peetter for doing this. Haven't entered in a few years. I'm just a dirty ETF/index freeloader so thanks to everyone else for your active investing and setting the prices ;)

My picks are: FNZ; USV (Buffett, banks and big pharma); ASR (go copper!) EMF (Jesus, will emerging markets ever work?); and APA (there's a lot of Toyotas on the road and who doesn't like the Playstation 5 - if you can get one)

[Tomtom]

Submitted.

[Tomtom]

I am not sure how to start a new thread, but maybe we should also have a fun competition for who can pick the combined worst five stocks for 2022. I would be interested to see which stocks people really hate. :t_down: There is a poster that traditionally does this to highlight some of the basket cases listed on the NZX.

If you want to play "dogs of the NZX" strategy that someone suggested above you'll want A2, Meridian, Synlait, PushPay and Ryman I think.

(Dis?)Honourable mention to MFB which was listed in March.

[Bubble`]

I chose BOT ESG HGH HLG HMY and then OCA. Outbreak's choices resulted in a gain of 84% last year , I'll be happy to see just one of my picks achieving that.

[wizAlvin]

Thank you. must aim for a setup like this. no idea what i picked other than what i could from the "gainers" off the site. wooden spoon 4me

[ralph]

I think you would probably find this more difficult than you think tom tom all those companies could potentially bounce back except the sick bag of course :D

[blackie]

cheers Peeter.
thanks for taking this on.

[peetter]

You're welcome everyone. Just a reminder for everyone that your picks are to be sent by today.

[winner69]

I think I’ll be top of the leaderboard at moment …ok, maybe equal top

[shareman]

My Picks:

NWF, TPW, SKC, AIA, RUA

Sixth Pick: RYM

[777]

My Picks:

NWF, TPW, SKC, AIA, RUA

Sixth Pick: RYM


But did you enter them on https://forms.office.com/r/SQ3hBv5RSN

[shareman]

Have now, gosh someones put alot of work into this, thanks to whoever that guy is, well done.

[RGR367]

Have now, gosh someones put alot of work into this, thanks to whoever that guy is, well done.

Here hoping you do your research thoroughly about your pick of stocks especially at what point at best to ENTER to trade them :p

We welcome you to this forum shareman.

[fiasco]

Thanks for picking this up! Is there a link where we can review ongoing results?

[tommy_d]

Thanks for picking this up! Is there a link where we can review ongoing results?

I'm really looking forward to watching this play out too :)

[wizAlvin]

thank you for running this competition.i entered and was also wondering about updates. i shall try prior comps - years for info as nothing here indicates that info
seems to be an event horizon w/o a crossing - gulp!

[peetter]

thank you for running this competition.i entered and was also wondering about updates. i shall try prior comps - years for info as nothing here indicates that info
seems to be an event horizon w/o a crossing - gulp!

Sorry I had a bit of time off at the beginning of the year. I'll put everything together and update the first post. I expect I'll start regular updates this or next weekend.

[smalltrader]

The link prompt an error saying I don't have permission to view or respond to this form. Anything I can do to fix?

[thegreatestben]

The link prompt an error saying I don't have permission to view or respond to this form. Anything I can do to fix?

Entries have closed.

[tango]

I put my entry in a couple of weeks ago but I don't see a confirmation email? Did anyone receive an acknowledgement?

[smalltrader]

Even just to view?

[Jay]

Nothing to view yet samlltrader as peetter has not yet got it up and running so I understand- think they will be posting results here - The link was only for entering your picks into the comp.

[Grimy]

Peetter mentioned yesterday that there would be an update soon - this or next weekend. It's only the very beginning of the year and he is doing it in his own time.

[smalltrader]

Thanks heaps :) missed my boat to enter so just keen to be on the sideline to watch

[nztx]

I put my entry in a couple of weeks ago but I don't see a confirmation email? Did anyone receive an acknowledgement?

No email confirmation received here either, as far as I can see..

entered before close off date ..

[ekman]

How do you get into the ranking list?

[Grimy]

See post #43 above

[Jay]

I put mine into a spreadsheet and track it that way, OK does not see what others are doing.

The question was asked who would like to run the comp only petter offered/took the challenge, so give she/he a break, I imagine it is not the most pressing thing in the world they have do each week.
As per Grimy has said in posts 49 & 53 - have a bit of patience people!
The delay is not going to change the standings.

[777]

I set up a new watchlist with Direct with the 5 I entered. If you set the base date as 31/12/21 then you can see what has happened since that date by selecting baseline.

[Playa]

Where can we see everyone's picks?

[777]

Where can we see everyone's picks?

refer to post #53

[nztx]

refer to post #53



This weekend or next weekend wasn't it ? :)

[Dlownz]

Shame I couldn't see the first week's results as I know I was up by heaps. Now it's all backwards lol

[peetter]

Placeholder for week closing on 07/01/2022:

[peetter]

Placeholder for week closing on 14/01/2022:

[peetter]

Hi All,

The weather in Auckland was far too nice to spend it all in front of computer. I'm slowly working on figuring out a best way to post results, meanwhile I have an excel file with current rankings for you. Please note I haven't included dividends yet. I also still have to add brokers picks.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjjPh...JG2Ed?e=C0WPda (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjjPhZKAb80mJG2Ed?e=C0WPda)

Last couple of weeks were pretty much in red everywhere we look and the rankings are reflecting that. Only 10 out of 244 participants have made any gains.

Top 10 for week closing on 21/01/2022:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Value
Percentage


1
shareman
NWF
TPW
SKC
AIA
RUA
50708.62012
101.42%


2
carrom74
ATM
CVT
PX1
RAD
RUA
50562.75497
101.13%


3
Dassets
SAN
TWL
WBC
ZEL
STU
50503.4787
101.01%


4
Evoman
ARV
MHJ
PGW
SKT
STU
50430.56557
100.86%


5
amalgam
PGW
CDI
HGH
SEK
ERD
50391.91377
100.78%


6
tumekeb
FBU
GNE
KMD
PGW
CMO
50159.84836
100.32%


7
Anthony read
NZX
AGL
ANZ
GBF
NZB
50154.55367
100.31%


8
Clearasmud
IFT
TRA
STU
FBU
MHJ
50122.41493
100.24%


9
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
50102.75679
100.21%


10
Parrot
HGH
OCA
MOV
KPG
RUA
50060.98687
100.12%

[winner69]

Well done peeter

Must be something wrong with the formula and formatting in the right hand column .... its nearly all red :(

[Rawz]

Well done peeter

Must be something wrong with the formula and formatting in the right hand column .... its nearly all red :(

Winner grinner where are your picks? Went looking to see how many times you picked HMY.. thought at least twice

[Muse]

Faaark i cant believe i entered PPH. Was toying with it as a dog of the dow but cant believe I followed thru. Fingers crossed for a takeover that will never come.

Judging by YTD performance of the nzx perhaps the best strategy to winning this comp was defensible picks that will hold value rather than growth stock punts

:)

[Jay]

Hey petter

Thanks for the update

You seem to have entered THL twice for me, my other pick was TRA

Cheers

[Muse]

Here are all the 2022 sharetrader picks ranked. Top 50 of the 137 picks made. 1220 discrete choices (including one blank). Good to see I've still got basic spreadsheeting skills.


Sharetrader Picks Ranked:
13432

[777]

I think that blank is Dasset's STU. Post 62 would suggest that.

[peetter]

Hey petter

Thanks for the update

You seem to have entered THL twice for me, my other pick was TRA

Cheers

You got THL twice in your picks. I updated one of them to TRA in my source file. Would get you to 147th place.

[Jay]

Ooops sorry Peetter - obviously need new glasses :-) Thanks for correcting

[peetter]

I think that blank is Dasset's STU. Post 62 would suggest that.

That's correct.

[wizAlvin]

Oooo very near my wooden spoon goal and so soon in the competition 13441
241 / 244

[wizAlvin]

1
shareman
101.42%

51
Maptuv
97.13%

101
TobyP
95.40%

151
WESKETT
94.21%

201
HITMAN
92.68%


2
carrom74
101.13%

52
St James
97.02%

102
Shareguy
95.36%

152
tommy_d
94.19%

202
Pierre
92.67%


3
Dassets
101.01%

53
Southern Lad
96.93%

103
Prendergast
95.33%

153
Scott
94.19%

203
Eden
92.66%


4
Evoman
100.86%

54
Candon
96.85%

104
Kjp64
95.31%

154
Dazzaldo
94.18%

204
Pocket_Eights
92.64%


5
amalgam
100.78%

55
Neophyte
96.76%

105
Kjulabosse
95.30%

155
Sportster
94.10%

205
Swala
92.61%


6
tumekeb
100.32%

56
Killdevilhills
96.74%

106
Ratkin
95.29%

156
TideMan
94.04%

206
Biggles
92.56%


7
Anthony read
100.31%

57
Wookiee
96.71%

107
LoungeLizard
95.24%

157
Microsloth
94.04%

207
Boldy
92.52%


8
Clearasmud
100.24%

58
Woof Woof
96.69%

108
DogsFromLastYear
95.23%

158
JeremyALD
93.99%

208
Pedro.nz
92.48%


9
Bobdn
100.21%

59
percy
96.64%

109
Evander
95.23%

159
Whiti Boy
93.97%

209
Jimmy61
92.40%


10
Parrot
100.12%

60
Ecuttel
96.64%

110
Lissica
95.23%

160
Watford
93.94%

210
Romeo
92.39%


11
perky
100.00%

61
Arow
96.55%

111
Sgt Pepper
95.17%

161
hyinvest
93.91%

211
TrumpsThirdTesticle
92.36%


12
Crackity
99.93%

62
sausagedog
96.54%

112
Mammoth
95.17%

162
Shwatch
93.88%

212
Bull
92.33%


13
Nigel
99.77%

63
Ruaboy
96.53%

113
Aanvil
95.14%

163
Deej5
93.86%

213
strikereurekaakl2022
92.30%


14
OLDSURFER
99.70%

64
Captain
96.46%

114
newbieinvestor
95.13%

164
Posh
93.80%

214
aquaman
92.30%


15
Borneo
99.45%

65
Grimy
96.40%

115
TFA
95.13%

165
Acol
93.79%

215
dave's losers
92.29%


16
Flyinglizard
99.41%

66
TheWash
96.39%

116
Hamish
95.12%

166
Battlinleo
93.76%

216
Traeder
92.27%


17
Felix
99.21%

67
mepco
96.36%

117
iceman
95.11%

167
Alekhine
93.74%

217
JasonM
92.16%


18
5
99.19%

68
Madame Selena
96.34%

118
The Punter
95.10%

168
ohdoyle
93.74%

218
jeffw
92.03%


19
Waiuta
99.04%

69
bosse1
96.32%

119
Daz
95.07%

169
Greekwatchdog
93.73%

219
John.S
91.97%


20
Black Knat
98.89%

70
alokdhir
96.31%

120
Getty
95.02%

170
red
93.72%

220
Eliot Henderson
91.81%


21
tomaroon
98.79%

71
EC Rider
96.27%

121
Rocketboy
95.01%

171
toml.1234
93.71%

221
Whome
91.77%


22
Fortune capital
98.79%

72
Clifton
96.23%

122
maccadac
95.00%

172
dumbfounded
93.71%

222
zen.wave
91.65%


23
Temuka44
98.75%

73
Beagle
96.21%

123
Madgoatkeeper
94.95%

173
FrankF
93.68%

223
Ballr
91.64%


24
lorraina
98.71%

74
MIway
96.19%

124
Topagent
94.91%

174
Joshthemuss
93.66%

224
Gumboot
91.59%


25
Gu3
98.64%

75
Bigbob
96.15%

125
Freebee
94.89%

175
THESTG
93.64%

225
garfy
91.45%


26
Satech
98.52%

76
Jimmybro001
96.04%

126
GlennS
94.86%

176
tumeke
93.60%

226
Dutto
91.41%


27
Whirly
98.52%

77
chicomendes
96.02%

127
RupertBear
94.85%

177
gv1
93.60%

227
fiasco
91.36%


28
Southernslim
98.33%

78
Quincy
96.01%

128
peetter
94.75%

178
kerryo
93.59%

228
Charlie
91.20%


29
Snoopy
98.29%

79
DazRaz
96.00%

129
bohemian
94.74%

179
Southern_Belle
93.56%

229
HCR20
91.06%


30
gmatt
98.25%

80
Japco
95.98%

130
stoploss
94.74%

180
xsun051
93.54%

230
Left field
90.85%


31
R32GTR
98.24%

81
NZX LOSERS
95.98%

131
NZTX
94.71%

181
Barnee
93.37%

231
QOH
90.74%


32
Moosie
98.18%

82
JW Invests
95.93%

132
Rocketman
94.67%

182
MRS_CD_CHCH
93.33%

232
Everwood
90.73%


33
K1xbut
98.17%

83
na2m1
95.93%

133
hogie
94.64%

183
zcyong
93.30%

233
Dlownz
90.33%


34
Kiora
98.09%

84
Lawnmower man
95.88%

134
Welly
94.54%

184
Mackap
93.30%

234
Old mate
90.26%


35
This Year
98.03%

85
Benny1
95.88%

135
jacko
94.54%

185
Jay
93.30%

235
Suburban Ac****ant
90.02%


36
Harley
98.00%

86
Wisey
95.88%

136
Toonie
94.47%

186
dubya
93.26%

236
worldwide
89.23%


37
Doug
97.95%

87
Beau
95.86%

137
jimdog
94.43%

187
Awesome
93.23%

237
traineeinvestor
88.72%


38
Anna Naum
97.85%

88
Monarch
95.82%

138
TamaD
94.43%

188
Moose
93.14%

238
Man123
86.87%


39
waldurp
97.68%

89
value_investor
95.81%

139
Username
94.41%

189
Sylvester Cat
93.10%

239
Smithy02
86.38%


40
mike2020
97.68%

90
Tomtom
95.78%

140
blackie
94.39%

190
JD
93.10%

240
clips
85.88%


41
Dogs Having Their Day
97.66%

91
cgba
95.72%

141
Rawz
94.35%

191
B1ng0
93.08%

241
wizAlvin
84.98%


42
Sofsof
97.63%

92
CD_CHCH
95.70%

142
Sylvor
94.34%

192
davflaws
93.01%

242
MCTOSSA
83.95%


43
Fiordland Moose
97.60%

93
clown
95.69%

143
4kj
94.34%

193
Lawnmower Man
92.95%

243
Paul C
83.83%


44
JoeM
97.55%

94
Gerald
95.67%

144
MuscatJumper
94.30%

194
thegreatestben
92.92%

244
Monty
82.35%


45
Laserpaper
97.53%

95
placemakers
95.67%

145
Chinesekiwi
94.30%

195
Rokko
92.88%






46
Jiggs
97.50%

96
RRR
95.64%

146
ados_nz
94.29%

196
Falling Down
92.84%






47
Count von Count
97.49%

97
'777
95.62%

147
stones
94.29%

197
Ovis
92.83%






48
ralph
97.48%

98
CHILVERS
95.60%

148
stef
94.28%

198
Charlie388
92.80%






49
Cod
97.46%

99
tumekec
95.57%

149
Panda-NZ-
94.27%

199
Odysseus
92.77%






50
Orchard
97.36%

100
porkandpuha
95.55%

150
LD
94.27%

200
Flo
92.72%

[shareman]

haha stoked but early days

[Nigel]

Only 11 out of 244 showing a profit. Ouch.

[nztx]

Only 11 out of 244 showing a profit. Ouch.


Ten I make it - with one on the start line .. too much of this market carry on
& the best dressed may be the one who loses least :)

[Ferg]

Now I can see what I submitted. There are a couple of "dogs of the dow" entries. Mine is DogsFromLastYear in position #108. Someone else submitted "Dogs Having Their Day" currently in position #41.

[peetter]

Hello again,

this week wasn't very good for anyone it seems. We have nobody in green. If I had to guess it's combination of tensions around Ukraine, higher than expected inflation in both US and NZ and the omicron getting out in the wild in NZ.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjjh9yzVxsKyDdsJ4?e=faFn5h

Top 10 for week closing on 28/01/2022:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
49580.42216
99.16%


2
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
49435.69834
98.87%


3
Anthony read
NZX
AGL
ANZ
GBF
NZB
49364.44468
98.73%


4
Satech
ATM
TWH
CEN
GFI
NWF
49254.41575
98.51%


5
Dassets
SAN
TWL
WBC
ZEL
STU
49176.49153
98.35%


6
5
AFI
AFT
AGL
AGG
AGG
49073.16514
98.15%


7
Sofsof
ANZ
IFT
GMT
AFT
BFG
48826.52042
97.65%


8
tomaroon
AFI
AFT
AGG
AGL
AIA
48439.09333
96.88%


9
Whirly
APA
MMH
SCT
SKL
TPW
48419.34962
96.84%


10
shareman
NWF
TPW
SKC
AIA
RUA
48324.13142
96.65%





Please note I am still working on better way to share results, but it might take couple weeks.

[Dlownz]

anyone else having trouble opening the link

[777]

Worked for me.

[Grimy]

anyone else having trouble opening the link

Okay for me too.
Thanks for your work Peetter

[Jay]

Open just now for me

Good work peetter

[Beagle]

Hello again,

this week wasn't very good for anyone it seems. We have nobody in green. If I had to guess it's combination of tensions around Ukraine, higher than expected inflation in both US and NZ and the omicron getting out in the wild in NZ.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjjh9yzVxsKyDdsJ4?e=faFn5h

Top 10 for week closing on 28/01/2022:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
49580.42216
99.16%


2
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
49435.69834
98.87%


3
Anthony read
NZX
AGL
ANZ
GBF
NZB
49364.44468
98.73%


4
Satech
ATM
TWH
CEN
GFI
NWF
49254.41575
98.51%


5
Dassets
SAN
TWL
WBC
ZEL
STU
49176.49153
98.35%


6
5
AFI
AFT
AGL
AGG
AGG
49073.16514
98.15%


7
Sofsof
ANZ
IFT
GMT
AFT
BFG
48826.52042
97.65%


8
tomaroon
AFI
AFT
AGG
AGL
AIA
48439.09333
96.88%


9
Whirly
APA
MMH
SCT
SKL
TPW
48419.34962
96.84%


10
shareman
NWF
TPW
SKC
AIA
RUA
48324.13142
96.65%





Please note I am still working on better way to share results, but it might take couple weeks.

Big shout out to me ol mate and former poster here Crackity at #1. Really miss him posting his witty posts here. A great loss to the forum when he was banned.

WOW...you know its been a truly brutal start to the year when every single person is underwater ! NZX50 down 10% year to date and I am not sure we have seen the worst of it yet :eek2:

[shareman]

Yeah, I agree, it'll get worse before it gets better

[nztx]

Big shout out to me ol mate and former poster here Crackity at #1. Really miss him posting his witty posts here. A great loss to the forum when he was banned.

WOW...you know its been a truly brutal start to the year when every single person is underwater ! NZX50 down 10% year to date and I am not sure we have seen the worst of it yet :eek2:

Brutal indeed .. I agree with shareman's thoughts too

Fortunately have limited exposure to NZX listings now & likely to remain so
until I see the storm has mostly blown through and signs of recovery appear

[Beagle]

Brutal indeed .. I agree with shareman's thoughts too

Fortunately have limited exposure to NZX listings now & likely to remain so
until I see the storm has mostly blown through and signs of recovery appear

I agree that we could easily slip into bear market territory, down 20% or more before, hopefully, some sort of recovery in the second half of the year.
Many of the heavyweight market darlings still have very stretched metrics for a rising interest rate environment and if the economy cools down with higher interest rates watch out, the bear could really go rampant ! Then there's how the Omricon outbreak will affect things.

I started the year with 60% cash and short term deposits, now 70%. Actions speak louder than words, that tells you what I really think regarding the near term prognosis for the market.

[Muse]

I agree that we could easily slip into bear market territory, down 20% or more before, hopefully, some sort of recovery in the second half of the year.
Many of the heavyweight market darlings still have very stretched metrics for a rising interest rate environment and if the economy cools down with higher interest rates watch out, the bear could really go rampant ! Then there's how the Omricon outbreak will affect things.

I started the year with 60% cash and short term deposits, now 70%. Actions speak louder than words, that tells you what I really think regarding the near term prognosis for the market.

Which if any stocks in your portfolio beagle have you fully retained?

[Beagle]

TRA, GNE (ouch), HGH, and STU. Buckle up for February it could be quite a ride.

[Muse]

TRA, GNE (ouch), HGH, and STU. Buckle up for February it could be quite a ride.

Waaaait where is HLG? You gave quite a full throated growwwllll when I said it it was my view that it would go down a few bucks (think I even got called a conjurer of dire predictions)

Thought your dcf was 10 bucks and omni only shed 30c off of it? You been selling after all that??

;)

Dont know much about genesis. Keep wanting cen to drop more so i can buy more but fairly resilient

[Beagle]

Have reduced a little as a risk management strategy. See above, you asked me which stocks I had fully retained...by that I thought you meant retained the full number of shares I had in 2021.

I wouldn't hold your breath about HLG going down a few bucks mate.

[Rawz]

I agree that we could easily slip into bear market territory, down 20% or more before, hopefully, some sort of recovery in the second half of the year.
Many of the heavyweight market darlings still have very stretched metrics for a rising interest rate environment and if the economy cools down with higher interest rates watch out, the bear could really go rampant ! Then there's how the Omricon outbreak will affect things.

I started the year with 60% cash and short term deposits, now 70%. Actions speak louder than words, that tells you what I really think regarding the near term prognosis for the market.

Wise Beagle- I am curious as to what you are looking for to get back into the market in a meaningful way?

Is there a certain % drop?
Some TA signal?
Fundamental analysis, like market P/E avg? Or inflation numbers, GDP numbers?
Is it stock specific?
Or is it just good old fashion gut feel when the time comes you'll know?

70% cash 30% stocks is certainly defensive.
I am 90% stocks, 10% cash. My strategy is to simply DCA into the basket of companies I hold to get me through 2022. I am fairly happy with my portfolio mix so no stress. One must be stress free and happy with their chosen path during these times.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/worlds-largest-wealth-fund-warns-permanent-inflation-will-hit-returns/YXU2YDZAJP5ZMM7WUGHGSANKWQ/

Not sure where to post this...but the title is World's largest wealth fund warns 'permanent' inflation will hit returns and its paywalled.
Except: The world's largest sovereign wealth fund has warned that investors face years of low returns as the surge in inflation becomes a permanent feature of the global economy. Nicolai Tangen, chief executive of Norway's US$1.3 trillion oil fund, told the Financial Times he was "the team leader for team permanent" in the fierce debate over whether the jump in rates is transitory or a lasting threat. Consumer price inflation is running at its highest level for more than two decades in the world's big industrial economies, in particular in the US, where the annual pace of price growth hit 7 per cent in December, up from just 0.1 per cent in May 2020.

Rawz. Everyone needs to develop their own plan for these extraordinary times. What is right for me at 60 given the very pleasing returns I've enjoyed in my portfolio over the years will be completely different for someone in their 20's, 30's 40's or even 50's.

To me its clear that we've enjoyed an unprecedented era of rising asset prices off the back of long term interest rates heading steadily down over the last decade and more recently from record amounts of central bank stimulus.

My sense is this is likely to be an exceptionally challenging year with Omricon, persistent high inflation, central banks around the world winding back stimulus, slowing economic growth and ongoing supply chain issues to name some of the headwinds.

Tell you a somewhat interesting story. I was watching CNBC in November 2021, pretty close to my 60th birthday and one expert on there came on and talked about age appropriate asset allocation strategies. Not a new subject to me by any means but a salient reminder that one's strategy needs to be tailored for one's unique situation and for the risks and opportunities apparent. The suggestion was that the amount of one's portfolio that is directed away from equities to more conservative investments such as bonds, cash and short term deposits should be roughly the same as one's age, e.g. a 20 year old might own 20% bonds and cash and 80% equities where someone my age should be thinking about just a 40% exposure to equities and so it became that I decided after a couple of truly exceptional years in the market I was feeling so content that I would take a very conservative position for a while, subsequently tweaked a bit this year. So far this has worked incredibly well with my portfolio overall inclusive of cash and short term deposits down just 2.5% in January against the NZX50 down just under 10%. I'm never happy about seeing my portfolio value go backwards but in the extraordinary month of January, (the worst start to a year I can ever recall) we've just experienced I feel I probably should be.

How long do I stay with an extremely defensive portfolio allocation ? First up, I don't think bonds are going to work either, (rising interest rates undermine the capital value of bonds so I am cash and short term deposits with that ~70%). I think its unlikely I'll still have 70% as extremly defensive by the end of this year though. What I'd like to see is how Omricon, higher interest rates, a much higher inflation rate and other headwinds affect equities as the year goes on and once we get some clarity around those issues and their effects and maybe the storm has passed by a bit I'll probably very gradually look to expand my allocation to risk assets on a case by case basis as deep value and a bottoming process emerges. TA is probably one's best tool here. Waiting for a break back up through, say the 30 day MA for a half sized re-entry position into a share and 100 day MA for the rest of that position are good risk management tools to ensure one isn't punting on the possibility the bottom might be in, but waiting to see it it is likely to be so and investing based on a new established uptrend.

You can probably guess that my strategy is built upon my belief that I already have enough to retire comfortably on so its currently about managing the downside risk in these turbulent times. More upside will come in due course but I am not in any way anxious to go looking for it.

Others will have a completely different approach in these times and there's no completely right or wrong answers, just what you believe is right for your own unique circumstances and goals.

[dubya]

I managed to find a free copy ;):

https://www.ft.com/content/10fc6f3f-1f45-4cdd-a176-bb4a9d9afa0c

[winner69]

Feb off to a flying start …might look back at Easter and say what was Jan all about

[Rawz]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/worlds-largest-wealth-fund-warns-permanent-inflation-will-hit-returns/YXU2YDZAJP5ZMM7WUGHGSANKWQ/

..

Rawz. Everyone needs to develop their own plan for these extraordinary times. What is right for me at 60 given the very pleasing returns I've enjoyed in my portfolio over the years will be completely different for someone in their 20's, 30's 40's or even 50's.

..


Great post Beagle. Really appreciate you taking the time to share your thoughts

[Jay]

yeah great post Beagle (post #92) thanks for sharing

[bullfrog]

Great post Beagle... but 60 is the new 40 apparently

[nztx]

Great post Beagle... but 60 is the new 40 apparently


Great post - Beagle

I still haven't worked out where those 20 years went :)

Oh to be 40 again with all the extra learned since :)

[peetter]

Hi All,

Still some pain happenning, but we have couple people in green this week.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjjrVQZBe6i5p6aZO?e=VFHxVj

Top 10 for week closing on 04/02/2022:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
50666.94622
101.33%


2
Evoman
ARV
MHJ
PGW
SKT
STU
50359.97082
100.72%


3
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
50164.38828
100.33%


4
Dassets
SAN
TWL
WBC
ZEL
STU
50021.19428
100.04%


5
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
NZR
SPK
IFT
49730.43589
99.46%


6
Anthony read
NZX
AGL
ANZ
GBF
NZB
49645.82121
99.29%


7
Black Knat
NZR
RAK
HGH
PGW
SAN
49640.38888
99.28%


8
Whirly
APA
MMH
SCT
SKL
TPW
49503.63326
99.01%


9
worldwide
NPH
CVT
SCT
AFT
PHL
49403.29825
98.81%


10
Killdevilhills
ARB
CDI
HGH
NZL
WBC
49335.53365
98.67%

[Grimy]

Many thanks Peetter

[alokdhir]

Hi All,

Still some pain happenning, but we have couple people in green this week.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjjrVQZBe6i5p6aZO?e=VFHxVj

Top 10 for week closing on 04/02/2022:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
50666.94622
101.33%


2
Evoman
ARV
MHJ
PGW
SKT
STU
50359.97082
100.72%


3
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
50164.38828
100.33%


4
Dassets
SAN
TWL
WBC
ZEL
STU
50021.19428
100.04%


5
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
NZR
SPK
IFT
49730.43589
99.46%


6
Anthony read
NZX
AGL
ANZ
GBF
NZB
49645.82121
99.29%


7
Black Knat
NZR
RAK
HGH
PGW
SAN
49640.38888
99.28%


8
Whirly
APA
MMH
SCT
SKL
TPW
49503.63326
99.01%


9
worldwide
NPH
CVT
SCT
AFT
PHL
49403.29825
98.81%


10
Killdevilhills
ARB
CDI
HGH
NZL
WBC
49335.53365
98.67%




Can u show Broker's Pick data also ....it will be very helpful in knowing who has better knowledge of the markets ...thanks

[alokdhir]

Can anyone tell me what is the date of inception of Broker's Picks competition ...normally its 17th Dec but this year NZ Herald article was first published on 26th Dec ...so I assume their returns will be calculated from 27th Dec 2021 to 31st Dec 2022. . Start prices of their stocks will be ??

[nztx]

Peetter must still be busy preparing our weekend update on who cracked the 100% mark in the last week :)

[peetter]

I've been on quick vacation :). I'll do update during weekend and include broker picks.

[nztx]

All good Peetter - hope you had a good break :)

[peetter]

Hi All,

I've added broker picks. They are on separate tab and also in the full list. Not a lot of change from last couple weeks, still heaps of red.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjjtdIyPIwoy4O-A_?e=dWgxlv

Top 10 for week closing on 18/02/2022:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
51300.36449
102.60%


2
Killdevilhills
ARB
CDI
HGH
NZL
WBC
50852.35235
101.70%


3
Dassets
SAN
TWL
WBC
ZEL
STU
50605.75773
101.21%


4
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
50200.26691
100.40%


5
Jimmybro001
EBO
HGH
USS
WBC
ANZ
50189.50355
100.38%


6
Anthony read
NZX
AGL
ANZ
GBF
NZB
49920.20121
99.84%


7
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
NZR
SPK
IFT
49661.54917
99.32%


8
St James
WBC
IFT
HMY
CEN
GNE
49343.22498
98.69%


9
Gu3
FBU
SCL
SCT
TWL
WBC
49257.55484
98.52%


10
Clearasmud
IFT
TRA
STU
FBU
MHJ
49203.05696
98.41%



I'm dealing with unexpected move in next month, so I'm going to stick to this format for a while. Oliver sent me his old template, so when I get some free time, I'll start working on blending his template with mine.

[nztx]

Thank Peetter - appreciated:)

Still just 5 over the line in positive territory it seems
with Aussie banks / NZ Banks likely contributors to this
for three of those over the line

[JimmyTrade]

Cracked the top 10! Edging slightly in the black this week

[peetter]

Hi All,

This week we only have 1 person in green. We can thank Vladimir for that I'd guess. It's awfull what Ukraine is going through and there might be more countries with the same fate if West doesn't come up with some hard response.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjj3k33aqLjA4ZJMy?e=W32jpJ

Top 10 for week closing on 25/02/2022:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
50850.85565
101.70%


2
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
NZR
SPK
IFT
49346.38136
98.69%


3
Dassets
SAN
TWL
WBC
ZEL
STU
49222.12527
98.44%


4
Clearasmud
IFT
TRA
STU
FBU
MHJ
48808.14664
97.62%


5
Test
AFT
NPH
AGL
DGL
AIR
48454.69218
96.91%


6
Killdevilhills
ARB
CDI
HGH
NZL
WBC
48447.03266
96.89%


7
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
48440.63645
96.88%


8
Cod
SKT
STU
SPG
ARG
WBC
48248.06606
96.50%


9
St James
WBC
IFT
HMY
CEN
GNE
48215.36586
96.43%


10
Snoopy
MCY
SCT
SKC
SPK
TRA
48101.4773
96.20%

[Tomtom]

Makes you appreciate the little things in life, like not having the Russians launching rockets at your street in the middle of the night. Small stuff.

[nztx]

Makes you appreciate the little things in life, like not having the Russians launching rockets at your street in the middle of the night. Small stuff.


Indeed - but it could be worse if the bulk of your portfolio was tied up in Russian stocks
now not trading - probably worth fractions of a cent in the dollar at best - that is if anyone
is interested in taking them off your hands .. and then being paid is problematic, if not
near on impossible ..

My thoughts are with the people of Ukraine..

[peetter]

Hi All,

Has the tide turned? We have 2 people with gains now :D. Also have you seen the price of Petrol?

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjj-OiP9xQEY0MofC?e=bEkDAi



Top 10 for week closing on 04/03/2022:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
51315.82598
102.63%


2
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
NZR
SPK
IFT
50357.83564
100.72%


3
lorraina
GNE
HGH
JLG
SEK
SPK
49808.17413
99.62%


4
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
49295.66221
98.59%


5
Clearasmud
IFT
TRA
STU
FBU
MHJ
49198.81089
98.40%


6
Evoman
ARV
MHJ
PGW
SKT
STU
49096.19296
98.19%


7
Madame Selena
SKC
IFT
MEL
IKE
NPH
49094.63569
98.19%


8
Cod
SKT
STU
SPG
ARG
WBC
49016.81441
98.03%


9
St James
WBC
IFT
HMY
CEN
GNE
48875.61099
97.75%


10
Snoopy
MCY
SCT
SKC
SPK
TRA
48647.63821
97.30%

[thegreatestben]

Forget the price of petrol! Diesel is over $2/L!! Also not enjoying lingering at the bottom of the table :(

[Tomtom]

Indeed - but it could be worse if the bulk of your portfolio was tied up in Russian stocks now not trading... Unless they're listed on another market. Might make a fortune investing in Russian or Ukrainian markets if you can time Russia accepting military defeat and the play the very, very long game waiting for sanctions to be lifted. That should probably be a seperate thread though.

Have an EV, so no petrol, but did notice the price of KitKats has increased. It all started to go downhill when they switched from paper and foil packaging in truth. I might write to the commerce commission and demand a public enquiry into the matter.

[nztx]

Unless they're listed on another market. Might make a fortune investing in Russian or Ukrainian markets if you can time Russia accepting military defeat and the play the very, very long game waiting for sanctions to be lifted. That should probably be a seperate thread though.

Have an EV, so no petrol, but did notice the price of KitKats has increased. It all started to go downhill when they switched from paper and foil packaging in truth. I might write to the commerce commission and demand a public enquiry into the matter.


Dont know about that Tomtom - on the Russian stocks :)

High inflation there, high interest rates, the poor serfs on the street headed towards poverty
the economy in tatters with limited support mechanisms - sounds to me like something
to steer clear of & likely to take decades to start coming right, assuming it doesn't implode
first - even if Putin backs down or gets taken out.

If RU get held to account for War Reparations then things could look worse still :)

Can't see RU listings being allowed anytime soon on other markets for some time,
so unless there is remote possibility of other coverage - it looks fairly terminal ;)

[peetter]

Hi All,

The pain continues.



https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjkExOtGhgZ34ajgE?e=72CU0g


Top 10 for week closing on 11/03/2022:




Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
50389.25357
100.78%


2
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
NZR
SPK
IFT
49038.80048
98.08%


3
Dassets
SAN
TWL
WBC
ZEL
STU
48561.89044
97.12%


4
St James
WBC
IFT
HMY
CEN
GNE
48402.49812
96.80%


5
lorraina
GNE
HGH
JLG
SEK
SPK
48224.7767
96.45%


6
Cod
SKT
STU
SPG
ARG
WBC
48180.26576
96.36%


7
OLDSURFER
NZO
MPG
SML
HMY
NWF
47950.14267
95.90%


8
Tomtom
RYM
ATM
MEL
ANZ
WBC
47824.61469
95.65%


9
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
47816.04658
95.63%


10
hyinvest
LIC
PFI
SKT
TWR
IPL
47773.75223
95.55%

[alokdhir]

Hi All,

The pain continues.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjkExOtGhgZ34ajgE?e=evINE1 (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjj-OiP9xQEY0MofC?e=bEkDAi)



Top 10 for week closing on 11/03/2022:




Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
50389.25357
100.78%


2
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
NZR
SPK
IFT
49038.80048
98.08%


3
Dassets
SAN
TWL
WBC
ZEL
STU
48561.89044
97.12%


4
St James
WBC
IFT
HMY
CEN
GNE
48402.49812
96.80%


5
lorraina
GNE
HGH
JLG
SEK
SPK
48224.7767
96.45%


6
Cod
SKT
STU
SPG
ARG
WBC
48180.26576
96.36%


7
OLDSURFER
NZO
MPG
SML
HMY
NWF
47950.14267
95.90%


8
Tomtom
RYM
ATM
MEL
ANZ
WBC
47824.61469
95.65%


9
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
47816.04658
95.63%


10
hyinvest
LIC
PFI
SKT
TWR
IPL
47773.75223
95.55%




Maybe need recheck the link above ...for me its still showing last week's data !!!

[peetter]

Thanks, fixed the link.

[peetter]

I'll have this weekends update a bit late. I moved and unsurprisingly no power/internet yet.

[Grimy]

Thanks Peetter. The way the Auckland weather is today that could soon apply to a few of us!

[percy]

Peetter.
I did send you a PM.My friend Temuka 44 pick was DGC,not DGL.Please correct his entry, as he will keep nagging me otherwise.Thanks in advance.

[peetter]

The pick was DGL :), probably a missclick. I'll change it.

[percy]

The pick was DGL :), probably a missclick. I'll change it.

Thank you.
Easy mistake for him to make.
I too have made it looking at a thread headed DGL, thinking it is DGL not Delegats.
Crazy that their [dgc] code in Aussie is DGL.

[Joshuatree]

Far out! Only 1 NZ comp pick in the green??!
In the ASX comp 25 picks in the Green!!!;)

[JBmurc]

Far out! Only 1 NZ comp pick in the green??!
In the ASX comp 25 picks in the Green!!!;)

Am I right by only 2% ? up

[Waiuta]

Hi Peetter,

Further to the announcement made by The New Zealand Refining Company Limited
("NZR") on Wednesday, 23 February 2022, NZX Operations ("NZXO") advises that
The New Zealand Refining Company Limited ("NZR") will be changing its name to
Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited and its ticker code will change to CHI with
effect from market open on Friday, 1 April 2022.

[Beagle]

Far out! Only 1 NZ comp pick in the green??!
In the ASX comp 25 picks in the Green!!!;)

And its former well respected poster on here Crackity. I really miss him posting on here, he has a fabulous witty nature about him that unfortunately the powers that be saw as too politically incorrect. :(

[wizAlvin]

i wonder where i am placed - should be next to last by now

[nztx]

i wonder where i am placed - should be next to last by now


A bit better than that @ 232/252 back on the March 11 link - Wiz ..

[alokdhir]

Looks like no update this week ....

[peetter]

Hi Peetter,

Further to the announcement made by The New Zealand Refining Company Limited
("NZR") on Wednesday, 23 February 2022, NZX Operations ("NZXO") advises that
The New Zealand Refining Company Limited ("NZR") will be changing its name to
Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited and its ticker code will change to CHI with
effect from market open on Friday, 1 April 2022.

Thanks, I'll make sure to change the ticker next week.

[peetter]

Hi All,

This one is delayed, I was too busy all last week.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjkSE...B7a_F?e=SNiFeP (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjkSEu1IgegNB7a_F?e=SNiFeP)

Top 10 for week closing on 18/03/2022:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
51931.87416
103.86%


2
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
NZR
SPK
IFT
50579.54619
101.16%


3
hyinvest
LIC
PFI
SKT
TWR
IPL
49925.1755
99.85%


4
lorraina
GNE
HGH
JLG
SEK
SPK
49855.59966
99.71%


5
Tomtom
RYM
ATM
MEL
ANZ
WBC
49411.86051
98.82%


6
Dassets
SAN
TWL
WBC
ZEL
STU
49248.45858
98.50%


7
Ratkin
THL
SKC
AIR
AIA
MCK
48947.02509
97.89%


8
Killdevilhills
ARB
CDI
HGH
NZL
WBC
48638.79081
97.28%


9
Cod
SKT
STU
SPG
ARG
WBC
48605.93399
97.21%


10
Gerald
ATM
SML
MCK
VSL
TWR
48601.39489
97.20%

[peetter]

Hi All,

It seems we're slowly crawling up. Did we already get through the worst?

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjkPZ...LOQbW?e=7lHaUZ (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjkPZXRnlC8aLOQbW?e=7lHaUZ)


Top 10 for week closing on 25/03/2022:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
52113.24559
104.23%


2
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
NZR
SPK
IFT
50734.01004
101.47%


3
hyinvest
LIC
PFI
SKT
TWR
IPL
49726.27982
99.45%


4
Killdevilhills
ARB
CDI
HGH
NZL
WBC
49636.10332
99.27%


5
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
49421.33546
98.84%


6
Tomtom
RYM
ATM
MEL
ANZ
WBC
49396.18663
98.79%


7
Dassets
SAN
TWL
WBC
ZEL
STU
49163.68573
98.33%


8
lorraina
GNE
HGH
JLG
SEK
SPK
49094.32136
98.19%


9
Madame Selena
SKC
IFT
MEL
IKE
NPH
49010.9334
98.02%


10
Ratkin
THL
SKC
AIR
AIA
MCK
49010.03271
98.02%

[wizAlvin]

A bit better than that @ 232/252 back on the March 11 link - Wiz ..
thank you for that - spinout the decline . . . :)

[peetter]

Hi All,

we have two changes this week:

NZR is renamed to CHI
CGF is renamed to CCC with share consolidation 15 into 1



https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjkVOUnzoyvk70z77?e=zcgVJj


Top 10 for week closing on 01/04/2022:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
52701.49275
105.40%


2
hyinvest
LIC
PFI
SKT
TWR
IPL
50819.08548
101.64%


3
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT
50594.82296
101.19%


4
Killdevilhills
ARB
CDI
HGH
NZL
WBC
50262.6753
100.53%


5
Cod
SKT
STU
SPG
ARG
WBC
50087.20066
100.17%


6
Temuka44
DGC
EBO
FRE
HLG
TAH
50084.9344
100.17%


7
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
50068.20863
100.14%


8
Jimmybro001
EBO
HGH
USS
WBC
ANZ
49639.72234
99.28%


9
Dassets
SAN
TWL
WBC
ZEL
STU
49337.75637
98.68%


10
NZTX
STU
HMY
DGC
HGH
NZM
49120.25342
98.24%

[peetter]

Hi All,

Not much change in the last week. Next week might be more interesting with RBNZ rate decision coming up.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjkYp...wi1pj?e=0pwOh6 (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjkYpBeaXVyPwi1pj?e=0pwOh6)

Top 10 for week closing on 08/04/2022:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
53753.68056
107.51%


2
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT
51688.0092
103.38%


3
hyinvest
LIC
PFI
SKT
TWR
IPL
50376.49811
100.75%


4
Jimmybro001
EBO
HGH
USS
WBC
ANZ
50262.49249
100.52%


5
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
50105.03626
100.21%


6
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
WDT
EBO
50076.93843
100.15%


7
Killdevilhills
ARB
CDI
HGH
NZL
WBC
49788.48504
99.58%


8
Temuka44
DGC
EBO
FRE
HLG
TAH
49761.71836
99.52%


9
Cod
SKT
STU
SPG
ARG
WBC
49478.1641
98.96%


10
Dassets
SAN
TWL
WBC
ZEL
STU
49466.29442
98.93%

[nztx]

Thanks Peetter - yes interest rate move could throw a different current in the mix :)

3 & 1/2 months into the year with further headwinds likely is interesting looking at the top 10

[peetter]

Hi All,

0.5% interest rate hike didn't do much with stocks, but maybe homeowners with mortgages will start looking at reducing their spending. Are we going to see some more decline in retail earnings?

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjkcJ..._OIos?e=YoZeQq (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjkcJdBFk-Zt_OIos?e=YoZeQq)

Top 10 for week closing on 14/04/2022:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
54007.06196
108.01%


2
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT
51392.30034
102.78%


3
Jimmybro001
EBO
HGH
USS
WBC
ANZ
50374.64332
100.75%


4
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
50213.7687
100.43%


5
Temuka44
DGC
EBO
FRE
HLG
TAH
49805.57897
99.61%


6
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
WDT
EBO
49726.88553
99.45%


7
hyinvest
LIC
PFI
SKT
TWR
IPL
49499.70799
99.00%


8
tomaroon
AFI
AFT
AGG
AGL
AIA
49182.50883
98.37%


9
NZTX
STU
HMY
DGC
HGH
NZM
49172.99492
98.35%


10
Killdevilhills
ARB
CDI
HGH
NZL
WBC
49155.91866
98.31%

[Tomtom]

Pretty brutal start to this year. We need a Covid 2.0 to allow Reserve Banks to turn the money printers back on...

[peetter]

Hi All,

A little bit more green!

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjkkN...BYfCO?e=qMbup2 (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjkkNnE5xXb1BYfCO?e=qMbup2)


Top 10 for week closing on 22/04/2022:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
53601.85971
107.20%


2
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT
51942.1968
103.88%


3
Temuka44
DGC
EBO
FRE
HLG
TAH
51861.62613
103.72%


4
Jimmybro001
EBO
HGH
USS
WBC
ANZ
51029.03638
102.06%


5
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
WDT
EBO
50663.08469
101.33%


6
percy
AFT
ALF
DGC
SEK
STU
50581.61926
101.16%


7
Killdevilhills
ARB
CDI
HGH
NZL
WBC
50528.58542
101.06%


8
Kjulabosse
DGC
WDT
TWL
SPG
WBC
50471.39288
100.94%


9
newbieinvestor
HGH
MZY
IFT
HMY
DGC
50299.76056
100.60%


10
NZTX
STU
HMY
DGC
HGH
NZM
49921.31507
99.84%

[peetter]

Hi All,

Back to red again. NZ swap rates skyrocketing and US shares tank on prediction of 0.5 rates hike by FED. On top of that EU politicians are pumping oil with talks about stopping sourcing oil from Russia. Interesting times ahead.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjkqn...9wRhr?e=skaMwZ (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjkqnyRpFzWY9wRhr?e=skaMwZ)


Top 10 for week closing on 29/04/2022:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
53065.5185
106.13%


2
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT
52018.7841
104.04%


3
Temuka44
DGC
EBO
FRE
HLG
TAH
51259.41673
102.52%


4
Jimmybro001
EBO
HGH
USS
WBC
ANZ
50208.96763
100.42%


5
Southernslim
AIA
FBU
HLG
VNT
OCA
49822.60507
99.65%


6
newbieinvestor
HGH
MZY
IFT
HMY
DGC
49759.00542
99.52%


7
NZTX
STU
HMY
DGC
HGH
NZM
49731.04619
99.46%


8
St James
WBC
IFT
HMY
CEN
GNE
49657.15699
99.31%


9
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
49572.51051
99.15%


10
percy
AFT
ALF
DGC
SEK
STU
49416.18702
98.83%

[peetter]

Hi All,

US 0.5% rate hike has made markets very unhappy. First time we have a broker pick in top 10 from what I can remember.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjku8...0Alvr?e=coY4B3 (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjku8Huj1yMY0Alvr?e=coY4B3)


Top 10 for week closing on 06/05/2022:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
52591.25761
105.18%


2
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT
51013.87179
102.03%


3
Jimmybro001
EBO
HGH
USS
WBC
ANZ
49885.80361
99.77%


4
Killdevilhills
ARB
CDI
HGH
NZL
WBC
49451.20635
98.90%


5
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
WDT
EBO
49372.05144
98.74%


6
Temuka44
DGC
EBO
FRE
HLG
TAH
49335.3899
98.67%


7
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
48852.91093
97.71%


8
[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL
48530.42688
97.06%


9
Southernslim
AIA
FBU
HLG
VNT
OCA
48474.74789
96.95%


10
St James
WBC
IFT
HMY
CEN
GNE
48292.8564
96.59%

[nztx]

May be turning back to a race to the bottom .. but who knows :)

[Tomtom]

May be turning back to a race to the bottom .. but who knows :) Cashflow growth is king in a rising rates environment I suppose. The skillful will survive, the rest shall perish from the index.

[peetter]

Hi All,


https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjkxq...16RPg?e=VnwIdP (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjkxqd-ovj3d16RPg?e=VnwIdP)

Top 10 for week closing on 13/05/2022:

Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
50543.3409
101.09%


2
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT
50135.73991
100.27%


3
Killdevilhills
ARB
CDI
HGH
NZL
WBC
48533.06571
97.07%


4
Jimmybro001
EBO
HGH
USS
WBC
ANZ
48395.96067
96.79%


5
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
48146.7834
96.29%


6
Harley
LIC
WHS
CMO
BGP
PGW
47363.25199
94.73%


7
tomaroon
AFI
AFT
AGG
AGL
AIA
46946.96402
93.89%


8
Snoopy
MCY
SCT
SKC
SPK
TRA
46906.79881
93.81%


9
[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL
46895.64209
93.79%


10
Anthony read
NZX
AGL
ANZ
GBF
NZB
46871.57031
93.74%

[nztx]

Thanks Peetter .. the Bear might see all headed into minus territory in next report I imagine

[peetter]

Hi All,

Glad to see the website is back up :)

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjk02...1RwZc?e=WBDOga (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjk027rgSEH_1RwZc?e=WBDOga)

Top 10 for week closing on 20/05/2022:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
51351.13586
102.70%


2
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT
50090.98754
100.18%


3
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
48262.0084
96.52%


4
Jimmybro001
EBO
HGH
USS
WBC
ANZ
48068.04243
96.14%


5
[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL
47654.94827
95.31%


6
Killdevilhills
ARB
CDI
HGH
NZL
WBC
47597.7387
95.20%


7
Anthony read
NZX
AGL
ANZ
GBF
NZB
47447.32798
94.89%


8
St James
WBC
IFT
HMY
CEN
GNE
47433.65871
94.87%


9
tomaroon
AFI
AFT
AGG
AGL
AIA
47429.79231
94.86%


10
5
AFI
AFT
AGL
AGG
AGG
47042.09178
94.08%

[Ferg]

Thanks for keeping this updated. Looks like the "Dogs From Last Year" are still dogs this year - graph shows NZ50 for comparison for YTD.

13840

[Waiuta]

Hi Petter,

I think ZEL has been delisted so some adjustment needs to be made to our comp.

[Tomtom]

Thanks for keeping this updated. Looks like the "Dogs From Last Year" are still dogs this year - graph shows NZ50 for comparison for YTD. 13840 I actually don't remember much about the strategy except it was buying the Dow losers from the previous year, does it historically correlate best with cyclicals or outperform in certain phases of the economic cycle? It might also be that US companies could be more trigger happy with replacing underperforming executives and managers.

[Ferg]

Hi Tomtom

There were a couple of us who picked the worst performers from last year. I'm not 100% familiar with the technique but you have the gist of it right. There are times when the dogs from one year on the Dow Jones are significant out-performers in the next year. I'm not familiar with any pre-requisites or filters for improving the odds, which there may or may not be and/or if the axe drops quickly in the US on the relevant executives. The sample of two in one half year is not enough to draw any meaningful conclusions - I'm glad I didn't try to copy that strategy in my actual portfolio.

[winner69]

The 'proper' 'Dogs of the Dow' strategy is taking the highest yielding stocks on the Dow

Supposedly because they are the highest yielding there are seen as undervalued .... and as they pay divies they are making money so not real dogs like BLT, PEB, PXi etc etc etc

[Tomtom]

Ah, thanks for enlightening us. Something to try next year perhaps.

[peetter]

Hi Petter,

I think ZEL has been delisted so some adjustment needs to be made to our comp.

There's couple of manual adjustments I have to do, but I was just a bit lazy. I'll most likely redo it all at once when DGL delists.

[peetter]

Hi All,

0.5% OCR raise with outlook close to 4% in 2023. Recession coming? Suprise DGL delisting, NZX getting smaller every week...

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjk46...CCrWr?e=acn6gX (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjk46yM6NkA-CCrWr?e=acn6gX)


Top 10 for week closing on 27/05/2022:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
51772.77358
103.55%


2
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT
49730.92315
99.46%


3
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
48567.0183
97.13%


4
tomaroon
AFI
AFT
AGG
AGL
AIA
48491.90484
96.98%


5
5
AFI
AFT
AGL
AGG
AGG
48230.6367
96.46%


6
Jimmybro001
EBO
HGH
USS
WBC
ANZ
48134.80373
96.27%


7
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
WDT
EBO
47829.40556
95.66%


8
Killdevilhills
ARB
CDI
HGH
NZL
WBC
47733.34521
95.47%


9
[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL
47288.87481
94.58%


10
St James
WBC
IFT
HMY
CEN
GNE
46626.63108
93.25%

[peetter]

Hi All,

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjk_9...JESa4?e=emXj38 (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjk_95XFFOR7JESa4?e=emXj38)

Top 10 for week closing on 03/06/2022:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
52621.22646
105.24%


2
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT
50655.95995
101.31%


3
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
49166.41406
98.33%


4
tomaroon
AFI
AFT
AGG
AGL
AIA
49026.80393
98.05%


5
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
WDT
EBO
48937.13825
97.87%


6
[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL
48735.43027
97.47%


7
5
AFI
AFT
AGL
AGG
AGG
48111.60149
96.22%


8
Jimmybro001
EBO
HGH
USS
WBC
ANZ
48067.52188
96.14%


9
worldwide
NPH
CVT
SCT
AFT
PHL
47963.562
95.93%


10
alokdhir
CHI
PPH
CVT
ATM
FPH
47732.20469
95.46%

[peetter]

Hi All,

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjlBq...KprDt?e=a5FboT (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjlBqEY3NpXQKprDt?e=a5FboT)

Top 10 for week closing on 10/06/2022:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
51086.72991
102.17%


2
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT
49667.02747
99.33%


3
tomaroon
AFI
AFT
AGG
AGL
AIA
49172.72158
98.35%


4
[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL
48314.69773
96.63%


5
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
48295.53229
96.59%


6
5
AFI
AFT
AGL
AGG
AGG
48215.50233
96.43%


7
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
WDT
EBO
47067.70574
94.14%


8
Snoopy
MCY
SCT
SKC
SPK
TRA
47058.87102
94.12%


9
alokdhir
CHI
PPH
CVT
ATM
FPH
46891.79212
93.78%


10
Madame Selena
SKC
IFT
MEL
IKE
NPH
46408.96921
92.82%

[nztx]

Thanks Peetter .. think some may have read one of the recent rags which suggested 7%
I think much widespread pain if interest rates reach those levels for ones on the paying end
especially recent borrowers

[Beagle]

Wow...the game of who can lose the least continues. Only one of more than 250 in the black is Crackity.

[wizAlvin]

wow 245th of 252 nearly at my goal of wooden spoon. on the way

[Tomtom]

Wow...the game of who can lose the least continues. Only one of more than 250 in the black is Crackity. Only nominally, thanks to surging inflation we are all basically losers.

[peetter]

Hi All,

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjlEI...u56-l?e=9AmuT0 (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjlEIbfGFmrqu56-l?e=9AmuT0)

Top 10 for week closing on 24/06/2022:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
51086.72991
102.17%


2
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT
49667.02747
99.33%


3
tomaroon
AFI
AFT
AGG
AGL
AIA
49172.72158
98.35%


4
[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL
48314.69773
96.63%


5
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
48295.53229
96.59%


6
5
AFI
AFT
AGL
AGG
AGG
48215.50233
96.43%


7
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
WDT
EBO
47067.70574
94.14%


8
Snoopy
MCY
SCT
SKC
SPK
TRA
47058.87102
94.12%


9
alokdhir
CHI
PPH
CVT
ATM
FPH
46891.79212
93.78%


10
Madame Selena
SKC
IFT
MEL
IKE
NPH
46408.96921
92.82%

[percy]

Hi All,

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjlEI...u56-l?e=9AmuT0 (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjlEIbfGFmrqu56-l?e=9AmuT0)

Top 10 for week closing on 24/06/2022:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
51086.72991
102.17%


2
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT
49667.02747
99.33%


3
tomaroon
AFI
AFT
AGG
AGL
AIA
49172.72158
98.35%


4
[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL
48314.69773
96.63%


5
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF
48295.53229
96.59%


6
5
AFI
AFT
AGL
AGG
AGG
48215.50233
96.43%


7
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
WDT
EBO
47067.70574
94.14%


8
Snoopy
MCY
SCT
SKC
SPK
TRA
47058.87102
94.12%


9
alokdhir
CHI
PPH
CVT
ATM
FPH
46891.79212
93.78%


10
Madame Selena
SKC
IFT
MEL
IKE
NPH
46408.96921
92.82%



With DGC no longer on NZX would you please change Timuka44 pick to AIR and mine to GEN.
Thank you.

[peetter]

With DGC no longer on NZX would you please change Timuka44 pick to AIR and mine to GEN.
Thank you.

I've already prepared new one with backup picks, but couldn't post it due to DB errors.

[peetter]

Hi All,

I've finaly had some time to do the changes and adjust calculations to take into account delisted companies and reinvest it to backup picks. We've had a change in leadership due to that. In general, the results are grim.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjlQDsDOqq4Lh3KYE?e=h6tvMR

Top 10 for week closing on 01/07/2022:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT

49507.59385
99.02%


2
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
STU
49179.63822
98.36%


3
[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL

46646.10684
93.29%


4
Snoopy
MCY
SCT
SKC
SPK
TRA

46276.42861
92.55%


5
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF

46209.17624
92.42%


6
tomaroon
AFI
AFT
AGG
AGL
AIA

45743.89839
91.49%


7
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
WDT
EBO

45386.90891
90.77%


8
5
AFI
AFT
AGL
AGG
AGG

45291.64477
90.58%


9
Madame Selena
SKC
IFT
MEL
IKE
NPH

45141.55282
90.28%


10
RRR
GXH
EBO
SKC
STU
SUM

44785.29337
89.57%

[nztx]

Good grief - everyone is under water overall .. I'm beginning to regret starting to think there was a glimmer of hope with NZX .. maybe in 2025 :)

Might have to stick with looking for some filthy double digits & multibags elsewhere with Dinosaur fuel offerings
and other glowing minerals ..

[peetter]

Hi All,

Waiuta is leaping ahead of everyone else with only Crackity keeping up. The rest is a lap or more behind.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjlbH...gq0kk?e=KrPSsz (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjlbHI4qHZuhgq0kk?e=KrPSsz)

Top 10 for week closing on 22/07/2022:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT

52028.99211
104.06%


2
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
STU
51260.10748
102.52%


3
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
WDT
EBO

48216.02551
96.43%


4
tomaroon
AFI
AFT
AGG
AGL
AIA

47914.37238
95.83%


5
5
AFI
AFT
AGL
AGG
AGG

47532.40141
95.06%


6
[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL

47483.23865
94.97%


7
Madame Selena
SKC
IFT
MEL
IKE
NPH

47120.08531
94.24%


8
alokdhir
CHI
PPH
CVT
ATM
FPH

46544.00342
93.09%


9
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF

46338.64832
92.68%


10
Gerald
ATM
SML
MCK
VSL
TWR

45956.27656
91.91%

[winner69]

Looks like Dogs From Last Year are still dogs - MFB PX1 RAD HMY BLT -- down 40% so far

[winner69]

wow 245th of 252 nearly at my goal of wooden spoon. on the way

You going the wrong way wiz .... up to 226 out of 252

Interesting picks from whose placed 252nd and last ...deserves a medal

[Gerald]

Wohoo 10th place :t_up: Can't recall choosing that dog SML though.

[Panda-NZ-]

wrong thread *

[peetter]

Hi All,

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjleCcIQp7mb-Mvbk?e=Njw7uI


Top 10 for week closing on 29/07/2022:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT

52954.42459
105.91%


2
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
STU
52022.02155
104.04%


3
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
WDT
EBO

49602.3237
99.20%


4
Madame Selena
SKC
IFT
MEL
IKE
NPH

49459.93517
98.92%


5
[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL

48405.51139
96.81%


6
tomaroon
AFI
AFT
AGG
AGL
AIA

47659.22866
95.32%


7
5
AFI
AFT
AGL
AGG
AGG

47176.41735
94.35%


8
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF

47163.72245
94.33%


9
Snoopy
MCY
SCT
SKC
SPK
TRA

47050.81535
94.10%


10
Username
EBO
MFT
SPK
TWR
USF

46811.88445
93.62%

[Tomtom]

This is a.great advertisement for bank accounts.

[peetter]

Hi All,

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjlmW...EicXq?e=aJlYCJ (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjlmW6yMphFtEicXq?e=aJlYCJ)

Top 10 for week closing on 05/08/2022:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT

54627.17453
109.25%


2
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
STU
53312.32335
106.62%


3
Madame Selena
SKC
IFT
MEL
IKE
NPH

50988.28073
101.98%


4
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
WDT
EBO

49557.57514
99.12%


5
[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL

49173.80278
98.35%


6
JW Invests
OCA
HGH
AIA
IFT
SPK

48584.47351
97.17%


7
Snoopy
MCY
SCT
SKC
SPK
TRA

48433.41897
96.87%


8
alokdhir
CHI
PPH
CVT
ATM
FPH

48059.33831
96.12%


9
Microsloth
IFT
MEL
MFT
EBO
SUM

47795.01151
95.59%


10
tomaroon
AFI
AFT
AGG
AGL
AIA

47775.12681
95.55%

[JBmurc]

This is a.great advertisement for bank accounts.

And the ASX

[peetter]

Hi All,

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjloce0nCtSE-JMNT?e=CZWMpd

Top 10 for week closing on 19/08/2022:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT

55154.01299
110.31%


2
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
STU
54952.55119
109.91%


3
Madame Selena
SKC
IFT
MEL
IKE
NPH

52245.29839
104.49%


4
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
WDT
EBO

50363.13411
100.73%


5
Snoopy
MCY
SCT
SKC
SPK
TRA

49291.83235
98.58%


6
[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL

49249.73468
98.50%


7
perky
CO2
IKE
PX1
SKT
STU

49222.97116
98.45%


8
JW Invests
OCA
HGH
AIA
IFT
SPK

49106.64388
98.21%


9
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF

48711.61381
97.42%


10
Sylvor
SPK
MEL
OCA
SKC
THL

48590.69236
97.18%

[Snoopy]

I am going to seize on my brief moment of glory being:

1/ Inside the top 5
2/ Ahead of all the brokers AND
3/ Almost back up to breaking even for the year.
4/ (Plus my competition entry is a proxy for my actual NZX portfolio.)

It is in a calendar year like 2022 that my somewhat conservative stock picking strategy comes to the fore. I take great care in selecting shares that are in everyday sectors that do not depend on 'king hits' for share price performance and are conservatively managed in terms of their debt position. This strategy tends to see me 'underperform the index' by a couple of percentage points during good years, but outperform the index significantly when the market takes a hit (Although I am not proud of losing money 'so far' over 2022, albeit only being down by 1.5%, I am well ahead of the NZX50 which is down 9.5%, so I have a net eight percentage point advantage so far in 2022).

Some might say, why don't you be more aggressive with your picks while the market is going up, and revert to your more conservative investment stance when the market hiccups? That sounds like a really good idea 'with hindsight', which is always the rider with the best investment strategies. With my strategy, I don't need to know which way the market is going, because I am always prepared for the worst. So while I take reasonable care to monitor my individual investments, I take no notice of the NZX50 whatsoever. I am not interested in where my investments sit on a trend line. I am only interested in buying below fair value, and the very occasional re-balancing when the share price becomes overvalued.

I have used the opportunity of market volatility in 2022 to top up both my 'Spark' holding and 'Mercury Energy' holding during the year, and I am up around 10% on both from my top up price. So things are going well, and I don't have to worry about when to re-enter the market with substantial capital, because I never 'sold down' as the index sputtered in the first place.

SNOOPY

[Grimy]

And with the amount of analysis you do (and share)Snoopy, you deserve to be in your current position. I read most of your posts and they often blow me away with the detail and self questioning you do. While some could label it slow and steady (boring), others like me appreciate your strategy. I also haven't sold down through the latest market movements and have done okay. Although Seeka has somewhat spoilt my party this week.....

[Waiuta]

Thanks Snoopy,
My picks are what I also hold with a couple of others (NZO & KPG) and some bonds (ANBHC, IFT240 & ZEL050). Currently +4.85% for the calendar year.

[Snoopy]

Thanks Snoopy,
My picks are what I also hold with a couple of others (NZO & KPG) and some bonds (ANBHC, IFT240 & ZEL050). Currently +4.85% for the calendar year.


Great result Waiuta. Looking at your share selections, it looks as though you and I invest along similar themes, although with your GNE, CHI and NZO, your portfolio has an 'oil' bent that I don't have. I was pleased in the circumstances with the way my portfolio was holding up. But it does look like you have 'outsnooped the Snoop'. Well done!

SNOOPY

[peetter]

Hi All,

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjlu7Sm0bz3gzHhrj?e=wFfcDS

Top 10 for week closing on 26/08/2022:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
STU
55325.92834
110.65%


2
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT

54894.03385
109.79%


3
Madame Selena
SKC
IFT
MEL
IKE
NPH

51234.67171
102.47%


4
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
WDT
EBO

50556.03165
101.11%


5
[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL

49567.97957
99.14%


6
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF

49377.00773
98.75%


7
perky
CO2
IKE
PX1
SKT
STU

49149.23631
98.30%


8
Snoopy
MCY
SCT
SKC
SPK
TRA

48440.33357
96.88%


9
alokdhir
CHI
PPH
CVT
ATM
FPH

48396.08422
96.79%


10
RRR
GXH
EBO
SKC
STU
SUM

48372.94661
96.75%

[Tomtom]

Still in red, I fear "All the perfumes of Arabia will not sweeten this little hand."

[Bobdn]

I guessed Macbeth but had to look it up, I didn't know.

Honestly it's a ****show. All of us have seen so many now. My hands are caked in it, just like Lady Macbeth. Yet, I don't care anymore. I guess because I only invest in ETFs and index funds (via Kernel Wealth) now.

As long as everyone is hurting at least as much as me, Im happy.

[kiora]

Definitely not the year to pick cash flow negative microcraps

[Tomtom]

I guessed Macbeth but had to look it up, I didn't know. A tragedy seemed apt. The halcyon period of low inflation and plentiful labour looks long over now.

[peetter]

Hi All,

sorry about long silence. Not much change happening, still red everywhere. Waiuta has taken lead from Crackity.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjlzT...j0XHB?e=003kBq (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjlzTZdv-3WMj0XHB?e=003kBq)

Top 10 for week closing on 23/09/2022:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT

54775.08404
109.55%


2
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
STU
53024.60175
106.05%


3
Madame Selena
SKC
IFT
MEL
IKE
NPH

49613.48248
99.23%


4
alokdhir
CHI
PPH
CVT
ATM
FPH

48899.62606
97.80%


5
[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL

48851.64448
97.70%


6
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF

47858.35902
95.72%


7
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
AOF
EBO

47836.97161
95.67%


8
Tomtom
RYM
ATM
MEL
ANZ
WBC

47289.94113
94.58%


9
Snoopy
MCY
SCT
SKC
SPK
TRA

47082.44887
94.16%


10
hogie
CHI
SKC
PEB
EBO
ATM

47080.25527
94.16%

[alokdhir]

Hi All,

sorry about long silence. Not much change happening, still red everywhere. Waiuta has taken lead from Crackity.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjlzT...j0XHB?e=003kBq (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjlzTZdv-3WMj0XHB?e=003kBq)

Top 10 for week closing on 23/09/2022:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT

54775.08404
109.55%


2
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
STU
53024.60175
106.05%


3
Madame Selena
SKC
IFT
MEL
IKE
NPH

49613.48248
99.23%


4
alokdhir
CHI
PPH
CVT
ATM
FPH

48899.62606
97.80%


5
[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL

48851.64448
97.70%


6
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF

47858.35902
95.72%


7
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
AOF
EBO

47836.97161
95.67%


8
Tomtom
RYM
ATM
MEL
ANZ
WBC

47289.94113
94.58%


9
Snoopy
MCY
SCT
SKC
SPK
TRA

47082.44887
94.16%


10
hogie
CHI
SKC
PEB
EBO
ATM

47080.25527
94.16%




Finally in Top 5 ....Wow ...Dream Come true ....lol. :p

[Rawz]

Finally in Top 5 ....Wow ...Dream Come true ....lol. :p

You're my hero alokdhir :t_up:

[alokdhir]

You're my hero alokdhir :t_up:

And U r mine Rawz :p

[Deej5]

I did my research so I know I should be in the lead. I can only assume everyone ahead of me has been cheating!

[Tomtom]

I did my research so I know I should be in the lead. I can only assume everyone ahead of me has been cheating! Caught me, I rigged the NZX to win an online game.

I'd have gotten away with it too if it wasn't for you meddling kids.

[nztx]

I did my research so I know I should be in the lead. I can only assume everyone ahead of me has been cheating!


Aha .. you reckon that as well .. thought I had it cut and dried from a birds eye view too :)

[peetter]

Hi All,

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjl3J3WBOBimYaBgf?e=yd4Qf5

Top 10 for week closing on 07/10/2022:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT

53217.33306
106.43%


2
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
STU
50809.18697
101.62%


3
alokdhir
CHI
PPH
CVT
ATM
FPH

49512.68236
99.03%


4
Madame Selena
SKC
IFT
MEL
IKE
NPH

49296.09965
98.59%


5
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
AOF
EBO

48843.65103
97.69%


6
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF

48598.83078
97.20%


7
[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL

47666.57003
95.33%


8
Tomtom
RYM
ATM
MEL
ANZ
WBC

47571.97555
95.14%


9
hogie
CHI
SKC
PEB
EBO
ATM

47167.79431
94.34%


10
Hamish
IKE
WBC
RYM
VGL
ATM

46201.6059
92.40%

[winner69]

See Dogs of Last Year is 4th to bottom and about 50% down

Just shows you that the likes of MFB / PX1 /RAD /HMY / BLT really are dogs

Once a dog always a dog maybe .... or maybe a good selection for 2023

[alokdhir]

See Dogs of Last Year is 4th to bottom and about 50% down

Just shows you that the likes of MFB / PX1 /RAD /HMY / BLT really are dogs

Once a dog always a dog maybe .... or maybe a good selection for 2023

CHI was dog of 2021 ...super winner of 2022 so far ...almost similar for ATM ...so not all caterpillars become butterflies but some do

[wizAlvin]

155th of 252 - strewth doing so well - cooooooooooooooooooool!

thank you Peetter

[Bobdn]

Damn it, I should have put some thought into my picks. I did zero thinking, less than zero, which is why, I guess, I can't seem to break into the top 3. I've been languishing around 5 to 9 for most of the year.

[peetter]

Hi All,

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjl51mwa3MoFiMqbV?e=ZOV1zt


Top 10 for week closing on 28/10/2022:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT

53782.5467
107.57%


2
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
STU
49882.33951
99.76%


3
Madame Selena
SKC
IFT
MEL
IKE
NPH

49468.32077
98.94%


4
alokdhir
CHI
PPH
CVT
ATM
FPH

49384.93547
98.77%


5
Sylvor
SPK
MEL
OCA
SKC
THL

48233.95637
96.47%


6
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
AOF
EBO

47744.53761
95.49%


7
[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL

47676.08541
95.35%


8
Tomtom
RYM
ATM
MEL
ANZ
WBC

47540.35387
95.08%


9
Panda-NZ-
RYM
WBC
KMD
GNE
THL

46875.8977
93.75%


10
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF

46842.95966
93.69%

[Panda-NZ-]

Ohh I make the top 10. Screenshot added and framed :)

[nztx]

Ohh I make the top 10. Screenshot added and framed :)


You might need another in a few weeks time when 89.63% becomes the new 93.75% in top 10 :)

Just remember Waiuta is the only one on the list to do better than break even at this point in the game :)

[peetter]

Hi All,

HMY was very popular and very lousy pick so it took me a while to "reinvest" the funds.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjl-Y...3HgcO?e=SjUjzK (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjl-Y72gHXax3HgcO?e=SjUjzK)

Top 10 for week closing on 11/11/2022:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT

54124.70178
108.25%


2
alokdhir
CHI
PPH
CVT
ATM
FPH

51268.55902
102.54%


3
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
STU
50264.9417
100.53%


4
[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL

49558.51044
99.12%


5
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
AOF
EBO

49376.1426
98.75%


6
Madame Selena
SKC
IFT
MEL
IKE
NPH

49165.60544
98.33%


7
hogie
CHI
SKC
PEB
EBO
ATM

48988.94982
97.98%


8
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF

48965.66963
97.93%


9
Sylvor
SPK
MEL
OCA
SKC
THL

48557.69593
97.12%


10
Tomtom
RYM
ATM
MEL
ANZ
WBC

47847.46427
95.69%

[alokdhir]

Thrilled to see my picks reached Second spot and in Positive ...:t_up:

Coveted number 1 position is quite quite far away though ....maybe just for one week please :p

[Rawz]

Thrilled to see my picks reached Second spot and in Positive ...:t_up:

Coveted number 1 position is quite quite far away though ....maybe just for one week please :p

If only you hadnt pick that dog of a stock FPH!!

[alokdhir]

If only you hadnt pick that dog of a stock FPH!!

Maybe it will do something after the HY results ....only hope ...lol

[peetter]

Hi All,

I've been very busy last month, so sorry for less frequent updates. I'll be posting link for next years competition probably this week.

As for the 2022 competition, Coming into December we see more people in the green. It's still bloodbath all over, but is the tide slowly turning?

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjmAYoaZeIJcKJ6Ju?e=t7kZST


Top 10 for week closing on 02/12/2022:

Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT

54054.37739
108.11%


2
alokdhir
CHI
PPH
CVT
ATM
FPH

52527.02535
105.05%


3
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
STU
51042.83107
102.09%


4
Madame Selena
SKC
IFT
MEL
IKE
NPH

50654.90437
101.31%


5
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
AOF
EBO

49647.2842
99.29%


6
Sylvor
SPK
MEL
OCA
SKC
THL

49474.18762
98.95%


7
[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL

49184.53347
98.37%


8
hogie
CHI
SKC
PEB
EBO
ATM

48935.4065
97.87%


9
Bobdn
ASR
APA
USV
FNZ
EMF

48240.82256
96.48%


10
Rocketman
GTK
EBO
SKL
HLG
MHJ

47968.41725
95.94%

[Bobdn]

Thanks Peetter. Yes a crappy year for sure.

[peetter]

Hi All,

Closing on the end of the year with Waiuta as #1 and only 3 investors in green.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjmExJOnSj7yoccq0?e=oeWhxr

Top 10 for week closing on 16/12/2022:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT

54574.14192
109.15%


2
alokdhir
CHI
PPH
CVT
ATM
FPH

52518.10042
105.04%


3
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
STU
50416.38645
100.83%


4
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
AOF
EBO

49741.05721
99.48%


5
Madame Selena
SKC
IFT
MEL
IKE
NPH

49681.85294
99.36%


6
hogie
CHI
SKC
PEB
EBO
ATM

49518.77216
99.04%


7
Sylvor
SPK
MEL
OCA
SKC
THL

49026.43997
98.05%


8
Gerald
ATM
SML
MCK
VSL
TWR

48929.64489
97.86%


9
Username
EBO
MFT
SPK
TWR
USF

48555.63055
97.11%


10
[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL

48341.49403
96.68%

[nztx]

Thanks petter

Question with both HMY & DGC gone do I get a second back up

what happens with my second missing runner ?

Thanks

[Snoopy]

Hi All,
Closing on the end of the year with Waiuta as #1 and only 3 investors in green.


Hey Petter I have a suggestion. Any chance of having the NZX50 index progress listed on your competition progress reports? It will give us a measuring stick to see whether any of are really gurus, or whether we should have shoved our money into an index fund as SailorRob and Buffett keep reminding us is best for the average Joe and Joess.

I see the NZX50 started the year at 13,150 and closed on Friday at 11,604. - a loss of 11.8%.

For myself, after flirting inside the top ten, I have now crashed out of that and am hanging by my fingernails onto place 25, down 10.3% for the year so far. Scott Technology fading away after their AGM, Sky City now tackling the authorities in Adelaide, and Turners hitting a twelve month low, despite excellent management so far in a difficult retail market have all hurt me in relative terms over the last month. I am still 1.5 percentage points up on the index though. So happy with that, even though a couple of brokers have now slipped ahead of be (Forsyth Barr and Jardens).

Hoping I can hang on to where I am as the year draws to a close. It will be a bit embarrassing if it turns out I should have put all my money into an index fund on 1st January 2022 and gone down to the beach with a fishing rod and beach chair for the whole year to hook some Kahawai!.

SNOOPY

[peetter]

Thanks petter

Question with both HMY & DGC gone do I get a second back up

what happens with my second missing runner ?

Thanks

I manualy reinvested both into your backup selection. There were I think 3 people with 2 companies delisting.

[alokdhir]

As NZX50 is down 11.8% YTD so majority wud have been better off in NZG index fund then trying to be fund mangers like SR says ...stock picking is much more difficult and luck needed investment methodology then Index fund investing ...:)

[peetter]

Hey Petter I have a suggestion. Any chance of having the NZX50 index progress listed on your competition progress reports? It will give us a measuring stick to see whether any of are really gurus, or whether we should have shoved our money into an index fund as SailorRob and Buffett keep reminding us is best for the average Joe and Joess.

I see the NZX50 started the year at 13,150 and closed on Friday at 11,604. - a loss of 11.8%.

For myself, after flirting inside the top ten, I have now crashed out of that and am hanging by my fingernails onto place 25, down 10.3% for the year so far. Scott Technology fading away after their AGM, Sky City now tackling the authorities in Adelaide, and Turners hitting a twelve month low, despite excellent management so far in a difficult retail market have all hurt me in relative terms over the last month. I am still 1.5 percentage points up on the index though. So happy with that, even though a couple of brokers have now slipped ahead of be (Forsyth Barr and Jardens).

Hoping I can hang on to where I am as the year draws to a close. It will be a bit embarrassing if it turns out I should have put all my money into an index fund on 1st January 2022 and gone down to the beach with a fishing rod and beach chair for the whole year to hook some Kahawai!.

SNOOPY

It's a good idea. I have a plan to move the competition to google docs to take advantage of Google Finance as it seems they have more consistent data than O365 finance data, but the personal life got in the way hard(in a good way) this year :).

[TheHunter]

As NZX50 is down 11.8% YTD so majority wud have been better off in NZG index fund then trying to be fund mangers like SR says ...stock picking is much more difficult and luck needed investment methodology then Index fund investing ...:)

For 23 it would be easier picking stocks to short than to long :p

[SailorRob]

Hey Petter I have a suggestion. Any chance of having the NZX50 index progress listed on your competition progress reports? It will give us a measuring stick to see whether any of are really gurus, or whether we should have shoved our money into an index fund as SailorRob and Buffett keep reminding us is best for the average Joe and Joess.

I see the NZX50 started the year at 13,150 and closed on Friday at 11,604. - a loss of 11.8%.

For myself, after flirting inside the top ten, I have now crashed out of that and am hanging by my fingernails onto place 25, down 10.3% for the year so far. Scott Technology fading away after their AGM, Sky City now tackling the authorities in Adelaide, and Turners hitting a twelve month low, despite excellent management so far in a difficult retail market have all hurt me in relative terms over the last month. I am still 1.5 percentage points up on the index though. So happy with that, even though a couple of brokers have now slipped ahead of be (Forsyth Barr and Jardens).

Hoping I can hang on to where I am as the year draws to a close. It will be a bit embarrassing if it turns out I should have put all my money into an index fund on 1st January 2022 and gone down to the beach with a fishing rod and beach chair for the whole year to hook some Kahawai!.

SNOOPY


The problem is though that a year is nowhere near long enough to draw a conclusion. Absolutely no shame underperforming an index over 12 Months.

One of the crazy things about investing is as follows;

You could do a bunch of work and then finally start investing say in 2015 and through a massive coincidence (for the sake of this thought experiment) you could buy the exact same stocks in the same proportions as David Einhorn (even though you had never heard of him), you then bought and sold exactly along with Einhorn for the next 7 years. After which you realised you had underperformed the market for so long that it was obvious you were crap and you gave up and indexed.

But in fact you were one of the greatest investors of all time, you just didn't know it.

This is why process beats outcome.

Watch Einhorn over the next decade folks.

[Snoopy]

The problem is though that a year is nowhere near long enough to draw a conclusion. Absolutely no shame underperforming an index over 12 Months.


For the purpose of building an investment portfolio, I agree, The performance over 12 months is of no real concern, provided you stick to your Buffett style investment strategy. I have often wondered if fund managers, who work on an annual bonus for single year outperformance, are taking a less than optimal investment path when you consider a multi-year time frame.

However, the competition is for one year. So I think stacking one's performance up against the index would be a reasonable benchmark, provided you did not get upset if you fell below the index return, provided you still stayed faithful to your investment strategy.

SNOOPY

[Baa_Baa]

However, the competition is for one year. So I think stacking one's performance up against the index would be a reasonable benchmark, provided you did not get upset if you fell below the index return, provided you still stayed faithful to your investment strategy.

SNOOPY

That's why the competition is largely meaningless, albeit a bit of fun, imo. It implies an investment strategy of buy and hold for exactly one year, which no one does. Traders will react and shift their positions during the year, while investors will add or reduce or do nothing during the same timeframe. It's fun though, but not a realistic investment strategy to time-box investing to a 12-month horizon.

[SailorRob]

For the purpose of building an investment portfolio, I agree, The performance over 12 months is of no real concern, provided you stick to your Buffett style investment strategy. I have often wondered if fund managers, who work on an annual bonus for single year outperformance, are taking a less than optimal investment path when you consider a multi-year time frame.

However, the competition is for one year. So I think stacking one's performance up against the index would be a reasonable benchmark, provided you did not get upset if you fell below the index return, provided you still stayed faithful to your investment strategy.

SNOOPY


Well you can stop wondering about fund managers. Absolutely they are, this topic has been explored in great detail over the last 50 years and tens of thousands of pages have been written up on this very subject.

[Snoopy]

That's why the competition is largely meaningless, albeit a bit of fun, imo. It implies an investment strategy of buy and hold for exactly one year, which no one does. Traders will react and shift their positions during the year, while investors will add or reduce or do nothing during the same timeframe. It's fun though, but not a realistic investment strategy to time-box investing to a 12-month horizon.[


It is realistic enough for me. My strategy goal is to own twelve NZX companies in equal amounts, but each member of my portfolio has a 'pair' in the same industry. So my portfolio consists of: Gentailers (CEN/MCY), Telecommunications (SPK/CNU), Finance (HGH, TRA), High Tech Manufacturing (SCT/SKL), Food (PGW/RBD) and Tourism (SKC) and Domestic Service Industry (AGL). O.K. some of the pairing is a bit ropey, particularly the last two that aren't really a 'pair'. But I did say my strategy was a goal, which I am still working to achieve.

The purpose of 'pairing' my investments is so that I do not get emotionally attached to a 'single company view'. It forces me to take a wider industry perspective, and hopefully decouples me from 'purchase execution bias' while continuing to hold a share through thick and thin (which might happen if my investments were not paired). I ignore the 12 month time box horizon when making my competition entry choices, because I don't invest in that way.

So even though I have twelve NZX investments, I think of myself as having six. It is a delicate balance, because I back myself to beat the index over the long term (many years). But the more individual investments you have, the closer your investment portfolio gets to mirror the index. For competition purposes I pick a representative investment from five of my six pairs, and that becomes my 'sharetrader competition entry'. It doesn't exactly mirror my actual investment performance over the year. But it is close enough for me not to bother working out what my actual investment performance was.

SNOOPY

[RTM]

Watch Einhorn over the next decade folks.

That’s all very well if you have a decade left SailorRob !

[Snoopy]

The problem is though that a year is nowhere near long enough to draw a conclusion. Absolutely no shame underperforming an index over 12 Months.

One of the crazy things about investing is as follows;

You could do a bunch of work and then finally start investing say in 2015 and through a massive coincidence (for the sake of this thought experiment) you could buy the exact same stocks in the same proportions as David Einhorn (even though you had never heard of him), you then bought and sold exactly along with Einhorn for the next 7 years. After which you realised you had underperformed the market for so long that it was obvious you were crap and you gave up and indexed.

But in fact you were one of the greatest investors of all time, you just didn't know it.

This is why process beats outcome.

Watch Einhorn over the next decade folks.


OK I will bite. A recent update on Einhorn's investments is here:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566081-david-einhorn-greenlight-capital-portfolio-q3-2022-update

with a list of current holdings here:
https://www.gurufocus.com/guru/david%2Beinhorn/current-portfolio/portfolio?view=table

What is David Einhorn's 'process'?

SNOOPY

[Baa_Baa]

It's fun though, but not a realistic investment strategy to time-box investing to a 12-month horizon.


It is realistic enough for me. [...] I ignore the 12 month time box horizon

:confused:

Merry Christmas

[SailorRob]

OK I will bite. A recent update on Einhorn's investments is here:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566081-david-einhorn-greenlight-capital-portfolio-q3-2022-update

with a list of current holdings here:
https://www.gurufocus.com/guru/david%2Beinhorn/current-portfolio/portfolio?view=table

What is David Einhorn's 'process'?

SNOOPY


He's a traditional value investor, outperforming the market by over 40% this year.

Watch him over the next decade, it will blow your mind.

[SailorRob]

That’s all very well if you have a decade left SailorRob !


I think you do!

[peetter]

Hi All,

It's last day of the year and here are the results. Congratulations to the Winner of 2022 competition Waiuta!

We should also make a special mention to alokdhir, placemakers, Crackity, Gerald and Username who also managed to stay in green in this very hard year!

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjmKYkGPFRoFJmUt4?e=wEb3gP


Top 10 the year 2022:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT

55975.36967
111.95%


2
alokdhir
CHI
PPH
CVT
ATM
FPH

53844.41388
107.69%


3
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
AOF
EBO

51801.69288
103.60%


4
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
STU
51659.12634
103.32%


5
Gerald
ATM
SML
MCK
VSL
TWR

50735.99675
101.47%


6
Username
EBO
MFT
SPK
TWR
USF

50287.34033
100.57%


7
hogie
CHI
SKC
PEB
EBO
ATM

49911.57048
99.82%


8
Madame Selena
SKC
IFT
MEL
IKE
NPH

49702.59728
99.41%


9
Sylvor
SPK
MEL
OCA
SKC
THL

49026.53688
98.05%


10
Rocketman
GTK
EBO
SKL
HLG
MHJ

48989.53832
97.98%

[peetter]

I've noticed a big difference between my data and NZ Herald calculations for broker picks. I've double checked and I don't think my numbers are incorrect.




Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage
NZH results


[B] Forsyth Barr
CHI
SKC
ARV
EBO
VSL

48884.84035
97.77%
105.80%


[B] Jarden
CEN
IFT
HGH
SKL
CVT

46838.61766
93.68%
99%


[B] Hamilton Hindin Greene
ATM
FBU
FPH
IFT
FRE

45483.76429
90.97%
92.80%


[B] Craigs Investment Partners
CEN
SUM
PPH
EBO
FBU

44298.24488
88.60%
95.20%


[B] NZ Shareholder Association
AOF
EBO
WHS
SCT
HGH

39205.19069
78.41%
84.40%


[B] MSL Capital Markets
AFT
FBU
HGH
NZL
PHL

37511.52547
75.02%
109.60%


[B] Hobson Wealth
HGH
MFT
SKT
TWL
MNW

33838.87947
67.68%
73.70%




14400

[winner69]

Different start and end dates peeter

[peetter]

It seems like they must have done start somewhere mid December based on the EBO gain of 16.7%.

[alokdhir]

Hi All,

It's last day of the year and here are the results. Congratulations to the Winner of 2022 competition Waiuta!

We should also make a special mention to alokdhir, placemakers, Crackity, Gerald and Username who also managed to stay in green in this very hard year!

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjmKYkGPFRoFJmUt4?e=wEb3gP


Top 10 the year 2022:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT

55975.36967
111.95%


2
alokdhir
CHI
PPH
CVT
ATM
FPH

53844.41388
107.69%


3
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
AOF
EBO

51801.69288
103.60%


4
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
STU
51659.12634
103.32%


5
Gerald
ATM
SML
MCK
VSL
TWR

50735.99675
101.47%


6
Username
EBO
MFT
SPK
TWR
USF

50287.34033
100.57%


7
hogie
CHI
SKC
PEB
EBO
ATM

49911.57048
99.82%


8
Madame Selena
SKC
IFT
MEL
IKE
NPH

49702.59728
99.41%


9
Sylvor
SPK
MEL
OCA
SKC
THL

49026.53688
98.05%


10
Rocketman
GTK
EBO
SKL
HLG
MHJ

48989.53832
97.98%




Thanks mate ...super happy with my luck !!!:t_up:

[Muse]

Thanks mate ...super happy with my luck !!!:t_up:

congrats to you and the top 10. That CHI was a good performer wish I had invested at the lows earlier this year

[SailorRob]

congrats to you and the top 10. That CHI was a good performer wish I had invested at the lows earlier this year


One of the worst performers you could imagine. The stock price did well however as punters probably equated petrol pump prices with this crapper.

[nztx]

Congrats all ..

God forbid .. still can't recollect the why's etc when putting HMY & DGL in for 2022 ;)

[Tomtom]

I failed to outperform a simple savings account? Back to Gulag for me.

[nztx]

I failed to outperform a simple savings account? Back to Gulag for me.


but a simple savings account needs to be discounted for the hidden inflation factor too :)

[Waiuta]

Hi All,

It's last day of the year and here are the results. Congratulations to the Winner of 2022 competition Waiuta!

We should also make a special mention to alokdhir, placemakers, Crackity, Gerald and Username who also managed to stay in green in this very hard year!

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjmKYkGPFRoFJmUt4?e=wEb3gP


Top 10 the year 2022:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Waiuta
HGH
GNE
CHI
SPK
IFT

55975.36967
111.95%


2
alokdhir
CHI
PPH
CVT
ATM
FPH

53844.41388
107.69%


3
placemakers
IKE
GXH
SPK
AOF
EBO

51801.69288
103.60%


4
Crackity
ZEL
GXH
MCK
CO2
IFT
STU
51659.12634
103.32%


5
Gerald
ATM
SML
MCK
VSL
TWR

50735.99675
101.47%


6
Username
EBO
MFT
SPK
TWR
USF

50287.34033
100.57%


7
hogie
CHI
SKC
PEB
EBO
ATM

49911.57048
99.82%


8
Madame Selena
SKC
IFT
MEL
IKE
NPH

49702.59728
99.41%


9
Sylvor
SPK
MEL
OCA
SKC
THL

49026.53688
98.05%


10
Rocketman
GTK
EBO
SKL
HLG
MHJ

48989.53832
97.98%



I was fortunate to win this year and only entered stock I held. I was lucky with CHI but pride may me hang onto them as they still owe me from the NZR days. In an effort to simplify my life I have sold all my NZ holdings except CHI and IFT.
My picks for this year include CHI, CNU, IFT, PGW and SPK. I'm sure CHI has still got mileage and both CNU and SPK are dividend plays with most of Chorus's work complete and Spark has that tower proceeds to use. I hold ~9000 IFT and see their diversification and returns continually growing. PGW to steady the ship.

[Perky]

I was fortunate to win this year and only entered stock I held. I was lucky with CHI but pride may me hang onto them as they still owe me from the NZR days. In an effort to simplify my life I have sold all my NZ holdings except CHI and IFT.
My picks for this year include CHI, CNU, IFT, PGW and SPK. I'm sure CHI has still got mileage and both CNU and SPK are dividend plays with most of Chorus's work complete and Spark has that tower proceeds to use. I hold ~9000 IFT and see their diversification and returns continually growing. PGW to steady the ship.


Congrats on your win Waiuta in what was a tough year to find good returns. Not sure 2023 will be much easier until inflation and interest rates peak.

Your picks indicate similar…not sure on PGW myself as a good performer for the next year.but what would I know…last time I looked my picks had me sitting in the top 30 odd

Best of luck for your picks this year and taking the time to explain your thinking.

[SailorRob]

OK I will bite. A recent update on Einhorn's investments is here:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566081-david-einhorn-greenlight-capital-portfolio-q3-2022-update

with a list of current holdings here:
https://www.gurufocus.com/guru/david%2Beinhorn/current-portfolio/portfolio?view=table

What is David Einhorn's 'process'?

SNOOPY


So Einhorn beat the market by 51% in 2022 and has now compounded after all fees and expenses at 13.2% from 1996.

That's 100k into over 3 million.