This Bear market

[ralph]

In this bear market as we are seeing a lot of companies sp falling as to be expected of course ,and the oncoming recession driven by rampant Inflation I m h o .
What would everyone's long term plans be !
I am currently realigning my portfolio to be better placed when this market picks up.
I have been buying into Oceania, Asset plus Sanford's and a few other Bargains but every time I do they falls again , of course I surmised this as a possibility so I am holding back now until I can see the light .
Anyone see any light at the end /bottom of the tunnel or is this bear market in for a while yet maybe another three months /twelve maybe .
Any comments anyone on any of the above would be of Interest .

[Beagle]

I think central banks around the world are in for a long fight in regard to trying to tame inflation because its not so much a demand problem, (which they can control through traditional central bank tools), but a supply problem.

Central banks will slam on the brakes with strong and persistent intertest rate increases but I think inflation will be incredibly hard to tame.
Recessions in many countries around the world are inevitable in my opinion. The following well known cliché's spring to mind.
Don't fight the Fed.
Sell in May and go away.

I think the next 3-6 months or so as Central banks lift interest rates a lot are going to be very difficult and I expect a Bear market will become entrenched in many markets around the world.
Lets see the lay of the land in September / October...in the meantime I am expecting a long cold winter in more ways than one !
NZX50 could conceivably end the year below 10,000 because some of the heavyweight index stocks are still on incredibly high metrics despite pulling back a lot already.

I am sticking with a very high allocation to cash and short term deposits, a modest allocation to shares, (mostly growth at a reasonable price or value and staples stocks Utility and REIT) and adding some bonds as opportunities present.
I have been playing "defense" all year and its worked okay. There might be the very rare winner this year who have gone hard and early on energy and resource stocks for example but generally I think 2022 and this Bear market is mostly about capital preservation. That's how I see it anyway. Better times will come back in due course...just have to be patient and play portfolio defense in the mean time.

[ralph]

Agree with all the Beagle And what beat the recessions and cooled the Inflation rates in the 80s & 90s would be a totally different scenario in todays age.
I am going full on defense also now ,I see genesis hit a 1 year low I had that on a buy at that price but have gone on the defense with that and other Bargains now

[clearasmud]

As deposit interest rates rise it will be attractive to move some funds back out of shares for the certainty of a return, never mind that it's still below inflation.

[Beagle]

As deposit interest rates rise it will be attractive to move some funds back out of shares for the certainty of a return, never mind that it's still below inflation.

Good point. Some banks are now offering 3.65% for 24 month term deposits now. Some good quality bond issues over 5.5% lately too.

[ralph]

Good point. Some banks are now offering 3.65% for 24 month term deposits now. Some good quality bond issues over 5.5% lately too.
Yes that is a big Improvement for the bank rates with certainty versus uncertainty .
Do you think king salmon is worth a gamble if it goes down to 10 cps or px1 at the same hmm risky business but with the fun of a gamble

[Beagle]

This dog is too old for risky gambling so those stocks are not ones I follow. Good luck.

[Sideshow Bob]

I frequent a few other investing groups (mainly on FB), I think with the tide turning/turned, we can now start to see who's swimming with no clothes on.....well could see it before, but now they know!!

Many seem to have been invested in speculative, low-grade, high risk investments - and hopefully we aren't "full 1987" that turn off a whole new generation of investors recently come into the markets.

As Beagle mentioned, agree it is about capital preservation - but not many places to hide, with inflation at current levels. Most of us have enjoyed the strong markets over the last X years, and while no one wants to give any back - might be hard not too - or at least returns being less than inflation. Good on those who have played "defence" early and circled the wagons. I still see on some groups the "you don't lose to you sell" rolled out - but hard for alot of new investors to know if/when to cut their losses.

Hard to get excited about term deposit levels, but maybe the best port in the storm (and I have a few small staggered 6 month TD's that reinvesting as they mature). God, I haven't looked at the bond market in years!! I suppose with anything fixed interest, hard to know how much interest rates may increase.

I've always been a big fan of REITS - often quarterly dvvies, PIES, most operate DRP's, exposure to a diversified commercial property portfolio etc. But just see this as a little waiting game - what the impact of rising rates have on price, as many taken a pounding lately. But also on their lending/cashflow, how easily they have the ability to increase leases with inflation, but also the wider economic conditions with occupancies. Need to look harder on their borrowings and current structures, and also quality of management, rather than a cursory look through an AR and buying on yield....guilty!!

As for shares, for me it is about largely keeping powder dry. But looking to buy quality, buy something that you are happy to hold for 10 years. Companies with strong business models, low debt, good operating cashflows, have the ability to increase revenue with inflation, quality management, solid dividends that can be maintained as economies tank etc etc. No different than usual but probably in the last few years found myself holding some random sh1t!! :laugh: Especially on a slow day at work with money in my online trading accout....!!!

Most shares will be in downtrends, trading under 200 day MA's etc. I'll be trying to maintain discpline, trying not to catch falling knifes, trying not to get smelly fingers (from trying to pick bottoms!! :scared:), not "buying the dip, not buying for a hoped short-term rally - but instead buy at the right value, look for over-sold opportunities and for some sort of confirmation or basic TA of an upward trend.

I'm sure longer term there will be some great buying opportunities and patience will pay off.

We live in interesting times!!

[Beagle]

Great post mate. Patience...often the hardest investment skill to master.

[Sideshow Bob]

Great post mate. Patience...often the hardest investment skill to master.

Thanks Beagle! Absolutely!! The market was there yesterday, will be there tomorrow. There will always be opportunities.

[ralph]

Great post mate. Patience...often the hardest investment skill to master.
To true Beagle and bob Patience eh but the fishing season is over now and I'm bored ,hey not like I'm advocating gambling on the king salmon debacle but got to be evaluating every possibility and keeping fluid .
But I am tempted with Genesis !!! who is to say it is not to go lower

[clearasmud]

It's a balancing act, Dividend stock holders are addicted to their dividends but in inflationary times the dividend stocks face more competition from bonds and risk reductions in the dividends due to less per capita disposable income,all with inflation pushing everything up. This is what we pay our management for-out performance.
Definitely pays to have some dry powder.

[ralph]

It's a balancing act, Dividend stock holders are addicted to their dividends but in inflationary times the dividend stocks face more competition from bonds and risk reductions in the dividends due to less per capita disposable income,all with inflation pushing everything up. This is what we pay our management for-out performance.
Definitely pays to have some dry powder.
Oh hell yeah and to be getting rid of the dead wood & damp looking powder .
I like to balance both the dividend stocks with the growth and combine a bit of both .
What would your dry powder be used for at the moment is anything within range any bears

[Beagle]

To true Beagle and bob Patience eh but the fishing season is over now and I'm bored ,hey not like I'm advocating gambling on the king salmon debacle but got to be evaluating every possibility and keeping fluid .
But I am tempted with Genesis !!! who is to say it is not to go lower

I am grumpy with myself. Thought Genesis was very good buying at $2.80 and acted on that recently, several times.
Once bitten twice shy !! $2.50 and I would be compelled to back up the truck though.

[clearasmud]

Kept away fron Genesis lately only because the fundies need to stay squeeky green.
However if it's cheap enough...
I'm annoyed I lightened on Heartland at 2.12 but I do feel that confidence in the banks could dissapate soon on increased bad debt fears.

[nztx]

I am grumpy with myself. Thought Genesis was very good buying at $2.80 and acted on that recently, several times.
Once bitten twice shy !! $2.50 and I would be compelled to back up the truck though.

Been bitten by that one a few times in the past

ASX to me probably looks best way to find good prospectives for insulation
or to better outperform against the Bear's ravages

A smart astute operator should be able to decipher a shortlist of good prospectives
to potentially more than beat the adverse prevailing tides

NZX listings will likely mostly roll with the punches flowing in from the Bear's strikes
with a few stand-outs from the carnage

In these sort of times, Capital preservation & enhancement can be better
than chasing the dividend only to see SP slide along the downhill ride

Many will have seen gains out of the Covid upswing forward from Apr 20, but the
next stage of the journey potentially may wipe out those gains (if you let it)
or perhaps a good portion of them. All the RB & Govt stimulus in between has in effect
hit the fiat Kiwi with possibly over 50% Loss in real value in 2-3 years - by way of
unrecorded real inflation.

There may always be opportunity to look in at NZX Co's again later when the Bear is seen
retreating back into hibernation :)

[ralph]

I think you are right about the ASX nztx I only have a couple of listings over there & they are both doing good at the mo .
There is a lot of grumpy buggers out there Beagle, playing with the bears me Included, Risky business that Bear baiting .
The great kiwi bear could be out for quite a while this time just as you say nztx roll with the punches looking to counterpunch when the opportunity is there.
I think the next budget will probably make things even worse as the government try to appease James Shaw & all the other fringe parties that keep them in power, to the detriment of business & Industry .
Definitely put my head on the block and say the building industry will start winding down in the next six months if not sooner as is its cyclical nature .

[couta1]

Ahh just sit on your hands with your paper loss holdings and buy more cheapies if you have the dosh, give the Bear a hug and a nice wee pat, go big or go home or go big whilst at home.

[Mickey]

Exactly Couta. I've been nibbling on anything in my portfolio whose share price drops below my average cost. They're mostly divvy stocks that I don't intend selling (unless they no longer meet my hold criteria) so now's a great time to accumulate and to decrease the average cost per share. This approach has served me well over the years. The Bear will eventually hibernate.

[Muse]

I'm not buying anything at the moment - and don't have plans to over the next few months, but am watching all the inflation & interest rate movements with interest.

I posted this graph earlier this year as shows how ridiculously low interest rates were in America relative to the inflation, and give a picture of where they could climb to and what that would mean for their asset prices. American markets drive a lot of sentiment on a day to day basis.


13815

Re the NZX, our rising interest rates could impact equities in two ways and each at different times. The 10 year treasury yield shot up to 3.86% (but is having a little relief rally and there is a lot of chat may have overshot in the short term), which in theory increases company WACCs and drives down their net present value. That impact is more or less immediate as interest rates rise and we've seen it happen in front of our eyes the last 6 months.

The second is what interest rates do to the economy and how long that takes. A lot of borrowings are fixed whether that by households or businesses. Mortgage holders probably fix for ~2 years, businesses for longer at 3-5 years on average but with some unhedged. There are still lucky households with ~3% mortgage rates, but those will be reset sometime this year. And as fixed lending gradually turns over, that sucks money out of households who eventually go on to spend less, and raises costs for businesses at the same time. Then you have wages which take time to respond to inflation as wage reviews are usually only once a year and collective agreements negotiated even more sporadically. Eventually corporate costs are rising steeply at the same time demand starts falling and we getting increasing unemployment which creates even less demand.

Eventually dividends get cut and investment sentiment is often at its worst during a recession even if that means interest rates are expected to reduce again.

And that's when I prefer to invest the bulk of my dough - near the bottom of the cycle - when sentiment is awful and the outlook is weak. But then interest rates eventually drop and we get to enjoy the whole spike up again.

Could take some time for us to get there. There are a lot of households who still have savings built up the two years, so things could be more resilient than you'd expect at first glance.

In the interim I am just plodding my surplus cash into a variety of interest bearing products with different tenures. So I can have some dough available as no one really knows what will happen, and also I think deposits haven't budged enough.

I've avoided the temptation to put more into more 'defensible' equities like generators, REITS and banks. The dividend premium for generators & REITS over bonds is currently at an all time low which can only resolve itself two ways. And many retail investors and instos are just waking up to interest products being viable products again so could be a flight to those away from generators & reits.

Banks might get a little rally they are in the "cost plus" business, so as their funding costs rise they pass it on and earn proportionately more income. But eventually bad debts sink in as the unemployment rises, a recession starts, interest rate expectations drop and bank stops drop. And once that happens I'll step in to buy. But the short term risk is they need to jack up their deposit rates more than they are able to pass on. Plus house sales were on fire the last few years and the outlook for house sales is pretty weak. So I'm not tempted by them in the short term. Plus commodity prices are super high which is great as an existing shareholder, but eventually they will drop too which could impact lending volumes. I'll just wait for things to bottom out more.

At the moment it looks like we might be headed for a recession at some point. That's okay not the end of the world, we go through them and we always will. It doesn't feel as scary as the GFC or April 2020. But who knows maybe bitcoins drop kills some hedge fund which hurts some regional bank and starts some mini crisis. Or putin uses a nuke. Its easy to see the global financial system catching an unexpected stray bullet.

Which is why when I do start deploying capital I'll probably break it up into chunks. If I want to buy more heartland or summerset or contact or whatever, say $100 for each stock, i'll watch the TA signals, but also do it in say 25 tranches instead of 100 over varying time periods. Inefficient. I don't have to pick the bottom but I want to de risk it by not deploying it right at the same time in case their is a shock. and as long as I do that on the bottom half of the cycle, I'm content.

And my own investor 'mental health' is a lot better seeing some of my investments fall as they are now knowing when I bought them.

[Waltzing]

Big rallies in Bear markets.....:t_up:

pump and dump....

[couta1]

I'm not buying anything at the moment - and don't have plans to over the next few months, but am watching all the inflation & interest rate movements with interest.

I posted this graph earlier this year as shows how ridiculously low interest rates were in America relative to the inflation, and give a picture of where they could climb to and what that would mean for their asset prices. American markets drive a lot of sentiment on a day to day basis.



Re the NZX, our rising interest rates could impact equities in two ways and each at different times. The 10 year treasury yield shot up to 3.86% (but is having a little relief rally and there is a lot of chat may have overshot in the short term), which in theory increases company WACCs and drives down their net present value. That impact is more or less immediate as interest rates rise and we've seen it happen in front of our eyes the last 6 months.

The second is what interest rates do to the economy and how long that takes. A lot of borrowings are fixed whether that by households or businesses. Mortgage holders probably fix for ~2 years, businesses for longer at 3-5 years on average but with some unhedged. There are still lucky households with ~3% mortgage rates, but those will be reset sometime this year. And as fixed lending gradually turns over, that sucks money out of households who eventually go on to spend less, and raises costs for businesses at the same time. Then you have wages which take time to respond to inflation as wage reviews are usually only once a year and collective agreements negotiated even more sporadically. Eventually corporate costs are rising steeply at the same time demand starts falling and we getting increasing unemployment which creates even less demand.

Eventually dividends get cut and investment sentiment is often at its worst during a recession even if that means interest rates are expected to reduce again.

And that's when I prefer to invest the bulk of my dough - near the bottom of the cycle - when sentiment is awful and the outlook is weak. But then interest rates eventually drop and we get to enjoy the whole spike up again.

Could take some time for us to get there. There are a lot of households who still have savings built up the two years, so things could be more resilient than you'd expect at first glance.

In the interim I am just plodding my surplus cash into a variety of interest bearing products with different tenures. So I can have some dough available as no one really knows what will happen, and also I think deposits haven't budged enough.

I've avoided the temptation to put more into more 'defensible' equities like generators, REITS and banks. The dividend premium for generators & REITS over bonds is currently at an all time low which can only resolve itself two ways. And many retail investors and instos are just waking up to interest products being viable products again so could be a flight to those away from generators & reits.

Banks might get a little rally they are in the "cost plus" business, so as their funding costs rise they pass it on and earn proportionately more income. But eventually bad debts sink in as the unemployment rises, a recession starts, interest rate expectations drop and bank stops drop. And once that happens I'll step in to buy. But the short term risk is they need to jack up their deposit rates more than they are able to pass on. Plus house sales were on fire the last few years and the outlook for house sales is pretty weak. So I'm not tempted by them in the short term. Plus commodity prices are super high which is great as an existing shareholder, but eventually they will drop too which could impact lending volumes. I'll just wait for things to bottom out more.

At the moment it looks like we might be headed for a recession at some point. That's okay not the end of the world, we go through them and we always will. It doesn't feel as scary as the GFC or April 2020. But who knows maybe bitcoins drop kills some hedge fund which hurts some regional bank and starts some mini crisis. Or putin uses a nuke. Its easy to see the global financial system catching an unexpected stray bullet.

Which is why when I do start deploying capital I'll probably break it up into chunks. If I want to buy more heartland or summerset or contact or whatever, say $100 for each stock, i'll watch the TA signals, but also do it in say 25 tranches instead of 100 over varying time periods. Inefficient. I don't have to pick the bottom but I want to de risk it by not deploying it right at the same time in case their is a shock. and as long as I do that on the bottom half of the cycle, I'm content.

And my own investor 'mental health' is a lot better seeing some of my investments fall as they are now knowing when I bought them. Lots of unknowns in there for sure but I guess it comes back to an individual case by case basis, after my A2 catastrophe I'm completely unfazed by the current situation, I guess when you take a massive hit you become extremely battle hardened once you work through all the pain, unfortunately some don't manage to make it through such events and are no longer here which is incredibly sad for them and their families.

[Beagle]

Ahh just sit on your hands with your paper loss holdings and buy more cheapies if you have the dosh, give the Bear a hug and a nice wee pat, go big or go home or go big whilst at home.

Bear's are not pets. They are to be respected and feared.

[couta1]

Bear's are not pets. They are to be respected and feared. I've got a half a dozen collector Bears and I respect them all but no fear, haven't been bitten by any to date.:cool:

[ralph]

Interesting F moose sums it up well ,the sp of a lot of good company's reits generators tech especially etc. Falling leveling off then dropping again getting to 5 year lows ,as commented previously the bears will eventually go in to hibernation when is anyone's guess ,seems to sum it up with OCA when a few weeks ago most Investors gave up on it breaking a dollar ,and most where forecasting on that thread 1.20 and it nearly got back there .
A lot of shares from good companies doing the same but its not over yet Interesting times ahead how low can they go hmm that American market !
The pump & dumpers should do well :ohmy:

[Habits]

...unfortunately some don't manage to make it through such events and are no longer here which is incredibly sad for them and their families.

"no longer here" on ST? Or something more tragic? Let's hope not.

[couta1]

"no longer here" on ST? Or something more tragic? Let's hope not. Possibly both but definately the latter.

[ralph]

Oh dear its not for the faint hearted ,and most people learn the hard way I think I have . Diversification for safety
On that point is there anyone whom doesn't diversify whom just go all in so to speak I have never known that .!!

[Waltzing]

Its been a trading market for a while now. Dump em...

[nztx]

A large posse of traders now .. wonder if the long hairy arm of the Taxman will be looking at
putting a vice grip on any earlier & later gains as well for some of the unfortunates ? ;)

Some of the unsuspecting novices may have already unknowingly painted themselves into a corner :)

[ralph]

Capital gains around the corner , probably the least of their worries in this bear market ,some could get a rebate :ohmy:

[nztx]

Capital gains around the corner , probably the least of their worries in this bear market ,some could get a rebate :ohmy:

Wonder how many times a year the Taxman will tolerate the same holdings being swapped from 'On Capital
Account" to on "Revenue Account" before switching back according to the whims & splutters on seeing the Bear passing nearby ? :)

[couta1]

Oh dear its not for the faint hearted ,and most people learn the hard way I think I have . Diversification for safety
On that point is there anyone whom doesn't diversify whom just go all in so to speak I have never known that .!! I'm well diversified with 4 stocks, a house plus a wife and a dog.

[fungus pudding]

I'm well diversified with 4 stocks, a house plus a wife and a dog.

If times get really tough and you had to let one of the above seven go, which would it be?

[couta1]

If times get really tough and you had to let one of the above seven go, which would it be? Definately not the dog anyway.

[nztx]

Definately not the dog anyway.


Have to be careful when the Dog is the Missus's dog huh ? ;)

[Sideshow Bob]

I think good time to revisit some Sharetrader Gold......

Using TA to time entries and exits (sharetrader.co.nz) (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9176-Using-TA-to-time-entries-and-exits)

[Beagle]

Pure Gold that thread. KW made a MASSIVE contribution in her time on here. Everyone should read through that thread.

[Muse]

Balance - you posted a video earlier in the year from the CEO or founder of some company like Fidelity or Charles Schwab that gave an awesome speech about recessions and the ups and downs of the markets. I can't find it anywhere - can you post it again here? It was great.

[Beagle]

Posted 26/04/2014
Wow, that's a spooky prophecy made over 8 years ago. #39 in that thread.


Watching CNBC this morning they put up a chart of the Nasdaq and it showed a very clear head and shoulders pattern with all the risk too drop off from the right shoulder. With the Russian / Ukranian situation potentially affecting European stocks and having world-wide trading implications, (one of their expert analysts after just coming back from the Ukaraine thought that it seems almost inevitable that Russia will invade eastern Ukaraine), its hard to see very high PE and no PE stocks, (i.e.like those trading on nothing but thin air and promises and future sales growth with no demonstatable proven profit record) not getting their wings clipped as a rotation towards value stocks and safe havens gathers momentum. Well run, moderatly geared high dividend REIT's look like a good place to hide, as is good old fashioned cash or short term high quality bonds.

[Bjauck]

Posted 26/04/2014
Wow, that's a spooky prophecy made over 8 years ago. #39 in that thread. Since that date shortly after Russia grabbed Crimea, and continued to support other separatist groups in its neighbours, the NZX50 has more than doubled. Hiding in cash since then, while the Russian bear sharpened its claws, would have given you a hiding...

[Sideshow Bob]

Posted 26/04/2014
Wow, that's a spooky prophecy made over 8 years ago. #39 in that thread.

History never repeats......

[mike2020]

I have 3 long term holds which Id be happy to add to, HGH, PGG and OCA. I have just started a small position with HMY, under 1% of portfolio but I think I might push it to 3-5 as things progress. Trading isn't my thing, when I have panicked in the past and sold out of any share it seems I have a natural gift for picking the bottom. Except FSF, no regrets about leaving that behind with a massive loss. Ive held CUE since OGOG tried to take over NZO and I'm optimistic by nature so not giving up on it and I started buying into RNU last winter as well as NWE. Compelling reasons to buy each of those now if anyone has a full day to do DD.

[Beagle]

Since that date shortly after Russia grabbed Crimea, and continued to support other separatist groups in its neighbours, the NZX50 has more than doubled. Hiding in cash since then, while the Russian bear sharpened its claws, would have given you a hiding...

Agreed. You can't hide in cash indefinitely without it costing you a lot of opportunity but its certainly been a good strategy so far this year.

[ralph]

Its looking like a green day today ,Could be a good buy with hmy at these prices I think the bear has left that one for dead mike .

[mike2020]

Its looking like a green day today ,Could be a good buy with hmy at these prices I think the bear has left that one for dead mike .
Like in The Revenant :mellow:

[Davexl]

Bigger picture...

Looks like a fall tomorrow with US technical indicators, with 14% more to drop before support at 200 week mv av on S&P.
Enjoy today while you can...

$11 Trillion and Counting: Global Stock Slump May Not Be Over

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-15/-11-trillion-and-counting-global-stock-slump-may-not-be-over?srnd=premium-asia

"The S&P 500 is still about 14% above its 200-week moving average, a level that’s previously been a floor during all major bear markets, except for the tech bubble and the global financial crisis. Strategists at Canaccord Genuity say there could be further declines on Monday on forced margin selling after yet another red week for the US benchmark."

[ralph]

Like in The Revenant :mellow:
Ha yeah I hope so lol:t_up:

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/cooking-the-books-podcast-how-to-shield-your-investments-from-a-chaotic-year-ahead/Y34EAN3TCG7JQS76UGFEE77BUA/

[Onemootpoint]

“$11 Trillion and Counting: Global Stock Slump May Not Be Over” ‘

Viewers of CNBC may recall a number of regular guests to their shows indicated an S&P ‘bottom’ at 3800, or 3750, etc. during the last few weeks. We got close to ‘been there, done that’ territory last week but the bottom doesn’t quite appear be to be in sight yet. A lot more downside on the horizon.

[couta1]

“$11 Trillion and Counting: Global Stock Slump May Not Be Over” ‘

Viewers of CNBC may recall a number of regular guests to their shows indicated an S&P ‘bottom’ at 3800, or 3750, etc. during the last few weeks. We got close to ‘been there, done that’ territory last week but the bottom doesn’t quite appear be to be in sight yet. A lot more downside on the horizon. Time for another cup of tea and a biscuit then.

[ralph]

[QUOTE=couta1;957339]Time for another cup of tea and a biscuit then.[/QUOTE

Take your dog ( is it a Beagle ) for a walk !

[Onemootpoint]

Indeed; lots of interesting and relaxing things to do whilst we await good buying opportunities. Nope, not a beagle.

[Muse]

This is a fantastic 3 minute clip Balance originally posted early in the year but worth a repost now...the legendary Peter Lynch on market volatility and bear markets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IhSkIUhjF0

and the full video totally worth a watch on a long weekend (starts 9 minutes in)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72Pq5zKEi_g

a lot of good perspectives there particularly 'in this bear market'

[ralph]

Totally true worth listening to is that F M when the Bears are out .
Harmoney is still getting savaged by the bears ,
I reckon this bear is out till after xmas certainly not going to hibernate this winter Damn global warming

[nztx]

Totally true worth listening to is that F M when the Bears are out .
Harmoney is still getting savaged by the bears ,
I reckon this bear is out till after xmas certainly not going to hibernate this winter Damn global warming


The trick is know how to steal the Bear's heavy protective coat while he's not alert to it gone,
do what you got to do in taking positions in this market, and then return his coat .. all unnoticed :)

[JBmurc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwmOkaKh3-s&t=1785s

Worth a watch ... really explains how the "Whole Free Trade" Plan has been great for the Mgmts/ Shareholders of the Mega Corporations to the dissolution or wealth of the middle and lower classes of all nations... and destroying human well being ...this latest BEAR market will only Ratchet up the Suffering of the 90%

[troyvdh]

Thanks ..moose...truly what a gem.

BTW....do you really one is out there still....ever.

[Muse]

Thanks ..moose...truly what a gem.

BTW....do you really one is out there still....ever.


no, probably not still out there. I like the idea of a handful of them roaming around, undiscovered, in the vastness. even if gone now, they still managed to do that for several decades until the last one faded away.

[ralph]

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/druckenmiller-warns-bear-market-ways-214507289.html

This bear market will be getting worse probably after xmas for rock bottom & then it will depend on Inflation and the oncoming recession getting back under control.
I cannot see it ending for a good 6 months moose .
The average length of a bear market is 1 year 9 months on that basis if we are lucky this time next year will see some light and the following xmas 24 bulls out .

[Waltzing]

6 months?

2023 predicted recession in US if perhaps a shallow one...

going to take something special to get these market back in BULL mode..

more like they will bounce around for a few years.. GFC took 6 -8 years to wash through this time we have two shocks on after another.

[percy]

The value of my portfolio has reduced,while my dividend income has increased considerably.
Rainy day fund remains in a healthy state.
My ASX small cap portfolio is currently a disgrace,however contains some exciting companies with huge potential .
Have a small amount of cash sitting at the broker's, which I am dithering about recycling,but can not make up my mind, between adding to our AFT,GNE,HGH,or STU .SFF on USX still looks the best buy, with a PE of under 3 and a gross yield of just under 12%,but luckily I am already over weighted with them.
Remain "well positioned."

[Beagle]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/05/morgan-stanleys-pick-says-a-paradigm-shift-has-begun-in-markets-what-to-expect.html

Increasingly serious attempts to rein-in inflation with interest rate increases will slam the brakes on and almost certainly send us into a deep and possibly quite protracted recession in my opinion.

I find it hard to imagine this Bear goes into hibernation before the war ends so the one sign I am really looking for as the first glimmer of hope this Bear market ends is for exactly that, an end to the War. I really don't think that's going to happen anytime soon.

Food for thought: Is there a chance of the effects of the pandemic, huge central bank debt and the war (if these things carry on for years as well as high inflation proving enduring) creating the environment for a world-wide depression ?

I think there will be very few who make money in 2022, (just look at the share competition results with almost everyone underwater).
2022 is all about capital preservation and he who loses the least does the best. 2023 could be more of the same. Its going to be a long, cold, wet winter in more ways than one !

[couta1]

The value of my portfolio has reduced,while my dividend income has increased considerably.
Rainy day fund remains in a healthy state.
My ASX small cap portfolio is currently a disgrace,however contains some exciting companies with huge potential .
Have a small amount of cash sitting at the broker's, which I am dithering about recycling,but can not make up my mind, between adding to our AFT,GNE,HGH,or STU .SFF on USX still looks the best buy, with a PE of under 3 and a gross yield of just under 12%,but luckily I am already over weighted with them.
Remain "well positioned." I like your style Percy, honest yet positive, too many gloom n doom merchants on here and as they say misery loves company.

[ralph]

I like Percy's methods /style also in these bear markets its a good strategy .
But the doom and gloom is what you get when you wake up to find all the bears running amok .
And Beagles comments are spot on & recession will feed the bears & 2023 will see more feeding from them predicting the end is Impossible with all the looming doom & gloom, but certainty 2023 is the earliest

[Ricky-bobby]

Yes the psychology of all gets a bit tricky…. I addressed this 6 months ago by jigging things round. Got my mainstays (now all good Div earners) in direct brokering. All speculative stocks on Sharesies and a good dollop in Milford (tracking way better than me!). So currently not looking at my Sharesies account🤣. Things will come away again at the start of next year, there’s too much cash in the world. It will need to go somewhere eventually… Good opportunity to rebalance things and get ready for the next run!…

[Entrep]

If you were 40 yo, down 5% maybe from buys you've made over the last 1-2 years and didn't need the money until retiring, what would you do?

Sell a pump a sit in cash?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

No one is bullish. Absolutely no one that I can see at least.

Everyone assumes there is no end in sight to the Ukraine war.
Everyone assumes inflation will continue to run hot for the rest of the year.
Everyone assumes very large central bank rate rises still to come to curb inflation at any cost.
Everyone assumes energy prices will remain high, even with reduced demand.
Everyone assumes House prices around the world will continue to deflate.
Most assume recession is inevitable.
Most assume China will continue its covid zero policy and will continue with city wide lockdowns.
Most assume supply constraints will continue.
Most assume company earnings will decrease, even for those companies with pricing power to increase their pricing along with inflation.
Most assume the strong, healthy labour market wont last, with layoffs and slower hiring to come.
There is also much fear about one of three possible extreme outcomes also occurring, any of which would lead to a big nose dive in markets (1: Putin going Nuclear, 2: Xi invading Taiwan, 3: A new much deadlier CV variant)

So it seems likely we are in the most pessimistic mode currently.

Will be interesting to see what happens the moment we get just one good piece of major news.

(Personally I would guess a cease fire in Ukraine would be a big turning point in sentiment - and could happen at literally any time. I think the covid policy of China is likely to change post the 2022 CCP congress later this year, which is the most important event every 5 years in chinas political calendar - its where Xi will either increase or decrease his ruling power. I imagine covid zero is abandoned after that)

[Beagle]

If you were 40 yo, down 5% maybe from buys you've made over the last 1-2 years and didn't need the money until retiring, what would you do?

Sell a pump a sit in cash?

I've been ~ 70% in cash and short term deposits since November 2021 when my nose for trouble coming started firing off serious warning signals. My portfolio is down a little year to date but a lot less than the NZX down ~ 15% year to date. I think the market could easily lose another 15% in the second half of this year. Some people think that its best if you are always 100% invested in shares and timing the market is impossible. I don't subscribe to that theory. There's tens of billions in Kiwisaver funds. I think there's still a lot of people that have yet to, but will come to the conclusion its best to switch to a cash or conservative fund to weather this storm and all those "switch" requests will keep the selling pressure on the market darling growth shares on the NZX that those Kiwisaver funds love to hold.

Sometimes when the tide is going out at 100 miles an hour its best for the most part to be sitting on the beach. Summer will come again for the markets in the due course of time but my sense is just like the weather at present, its early Winter and this has a long way to go.

[Sideshow Bob]

No one is bullish. Absolutely no one that I can see at least.

Everyone assumes there is no end in sight to the Ukraine war.
Everyone assumes inflation will continue to run hot for the rest of the year.
Everyone assumes very large central bank rate rises still to come to curb inflation at any cost.
Everyone assumes energy prices will remain high, even with reduced demand.
Everyone assumes House prices around the world will continue to deflate.
Most assume recession is inevitable.
Most assume China will continue its covid zero policy and will continue with city wide lockdowns.
Most assume supply constraints will continue.
Most assume company earnings will decrease, even for those companies with pricing power to increase their pricing along with inflation.
Most assume the strong, healthy labour market wont last, with layoffs and slower hiring to come.
There is also much fear about one of three possible extreme outcomes also occurring, any of which would lead to a big nose dive in markets (1: Putin going Nuclear, 2: Xi invading Taiwan, 3: A new much deadlier CV variant)

So it seems likely we are in the most pessimistic mode currently.

Will be interesting to see what happens the moment we get just one good piece of major news.

(Personally I would guess a cease fire in Ukraine would be a big turning point in sentiment - and could happen at literally any time. I think the covid policy of China is likely to change post the 2022 CCP congress later this year, which is the most important event every 5 years in chinas political calendar - its where Xi will either increase or decrease his ruling power. I imagine covid zero is abandoned after that)

Good post LEK and agree.

I see that need to get back to some sort of global normality, but for this need China to ease off the Covid zero-policy, and a ceasefire or the like in the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Essentially some way of the situation changing or reversing, but with both "saving face". Don't know how likely that is.....

[winner69]

All this talk of recession .... what recession

ANZ / Westpac not forecasting any recession this year ... and neither are a few other research places

So no worries .... people shouldn't read Stuff and watch the TV news ..... just spreading gloom

[Beagle]

Good post LEK and agree.

I see that need to get back to some sort of global normality, but for this need China to ease off the Covid zero-policy, and a ceasefire or the like in the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Essentially some way of the situation changing or reversing, but with both "saving face". Don't know how likely that is.....

Unlikely anytime soon. Comparing the seriousness of those two issues in terms of economic impact I'd rate the War a 10/10 and the China covid zero policy tolerance a 2/10.

Its coming Winner...my nose for trouble coming is very rarely wrong.

[winner69]

Jeez LEK .... so many 'Most assume' bad things

Unlike you to be so pessimistic

[Rawz]

If you were 40 yo, down 5% maybe from buys you've made over the last 1-2 years and didn't need the money until retiring, what would you do?

Sell a pump a sit in cash?

Personally I think the the time for, ‘timing’, the market has gone. We are sufficiently deep enough into this bear market that I reckon it’s now a matter of holding and reinvest all dividends or pump spare income into the market to avg down. If you didn’t get out on the top it’s likely you won’t get back in on the bottom..

For me it’s also time to reflect on the companies in your portfolio and their management and ask yourself if you still believe in their strategy and ability to navigate through this inflationary period. Is the balance sheet strong??.. is another key question.

[allfromacell]

Some people think that its best if you are always 100% invested in shares and timing the market is impossible. I don't subscribe to that theory. There's tens of billions in Kiwisaver funds. I think there's still a lot of people that have yet to, but will come to the conclusion its best to switch to a cash or conservative fund to weather this storm and all those "switch" requests will keep the selling pressure on the market darling growth shares on the NZX that those Kiwisaver funds love to hold.

The only problem with that is not only do you have to beat the market, you have to beat it consistently and by a significant amount in order to outperform the tax bills.

Simply holding and adding will always leave you at par with the market and even better off if you up the regularity of your buys during bear markets. A lot less stressful in my opinion and less time consuming.

Selling now is too late anyway, it's such a crowed trade and the market usually bottoms long before the economic situation does, after all a poor economy is usually followed by interest rate cuts.

Obviously timing the market can be incredibly profitable but for the vast majority of people they cannot do it consistently, humans are emotional and most people are much better off holding and instead investing less of their overall wealth in equities if they can't stomach the volatility.

[alokdhir]

Guru Lister said that when market reverses ...average 17.6% returns are made in first month ...so its better to stay invested now then panic and sell and try to time the bottom

[SailorRob]

No one is bullish. Absolutely no one that I can see at least.

Everyone assumes there is no end in sight to the Ukraine war.
Everyone assumes inflation will continue to run hot for the rest of the year.
Everyone assumes very large central bank rate rises still to come to curb inflation at any cost.
Everyone assumes energy prices will remain high, even with reduced demand.
Everyone assumes House prices around the world will continue to deflate.
Most assume recession is inevitable.
Most assume China will continue its covid zero policy and will continue with city wide lockdowns.
Most assume supply constraints will continue.
Most assume company earnings will decrease, even for those companies with pricing power to increase their pricing along with inflation.
Most assume the strong, healthy labour market wont last, with layoffs and slower hiring to come.
There is also much fear about one of three possible extreme outcomes also occurring, any of which would lead to a big nose dive in markets (1: Putin going Nuclear, 2: Xi invading Taiwan, 3: A new much deadlier CV variant)

So it seems likely we are in the most pessimistic mode currently.

Will be interesting to see what happens the moment we get just one good piece of major news.

(Personally I would guess a cease fire in Ukraine would be a big turning point in sentiment - and could happen at literally any time. I think the covid policy of China is likely to change post the 2022 CCP congress later this year, which is the most important event every 5 years in chinas political calendar - its where Xi will either increase or decrease his ruling power. I imagine covid zero is abandoned after that)

Excellent post.

You me and Warren are the only three in the world that have no clue about where markets go next.

What track record do all the people expressing such sure opinions have regarding market timing?

[SailorRob]

The only problem with that is not only do you have to beat the market, you have to beat it consistently and by a significant amount in order to outperform the tax bills.

Simply holding and adding will always leave you at par with the market and even better off if you up the regularity of your buys during bear markets. A lot less stressful in my opinion and less time consuming.

Selling now is too late anyway, it's such a crowed trade and the market usually bottoms long before the economic situation does, after all a poor economy is usually followed by interest rate cuts.

Obviously timing the market can be incredibly profitable but for the vast majority of people they cannot do it consistently, humans are emotional and most people are much better off holding and instead investing less of their overall wealth in equities if they can't stomach the volatility.

The biggest issue with being able to time the market (and Buffett has never met anyone that can) the issue is that you become a billionaire reasonably quickly and that becomes socially awkward in New Zealand.

[Rawz]

Due to most govt balance sheets around the world swelled to the brim with debt and no way service that debt with higher rates.. i reckon central banks will talk the talk about QT and raising rates (to reign in inflation)... but in reality they wont be walking the talk.

Instead we will have higher than normal inflation for longer than normal and real rates will be well negative.

Cash is trash and a lot of stocks will perform just fine through this

[Beagle]

I reckon Cash is King and a lot of things, (not just shares), are going to be a lot cheaper next winter than they are now. Seeing some huge drops already in the cost of a nice holiday home in Taupo now compared to last summer. Early days though. I'm thinking, holiday homes, boats, that fancy luxury European car, campervans and most shares will be cheaper in 12-18 months time. You only lose with cash and inflation if what you are thinking about buying in the future is going up.
Hide from the Bear and when (s)he's done some serious damage pick up some bargains, that's my strategy.
I don't think the Bear we face is bluffing like this one, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCBj9zCQVu4

[couta1]

I reckon Cash is King and a lot of things, (not just shares), are going to be a lot cheaper next winter than they are now. Seeing some huge drops already in the cost of a nice holiday home in Taupo now compared to last summer. Early days though. I'm thinking, holiday homes, boats, that fancy luxury European car, campervans and most shares will be cheaper in 12-18 months time. You only lose with cash and inflation if what you are thinking about buying in the future is going up.
Hide from the Bear and when (s)he's done some serious damage pick up some bargains, that's my strategy.
I don't think the Bear we face is bluffing like this one, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCBj9zCQVu4 'Material Girl' comes to mind reading this post.

[SailorRob]

I reckon Cash is King and a lot of things, (not just shares), are going to be a lot cheaper next winter than they are now. Seeing some huge drops already in the cost of a nice holiday home in Taupo now compared to last summer. Early days though. I'm thinking, holiday homes, boats, that fancy luxury European car, campervans and most shares will be cheaper in 12-18 months time. You only lose with cash and inflation if what you are thinking about buying in the future is going up.
Hide from the Bear and when (s)he's done some serious damage pick up some bargains, that's my strategy.
I don't think the Bear we face is bluffing like this one, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCBj9zCQVu4

Hard to disagree with the luxury cars and holiday homes.

Equities however are already cheap in many instances particularly ex NZ with corporate revenues exploding.

Very true though regarding losing with inflation, if what you want to buy is falling in price then inflation does not affect you.

[SailorRob]

We can all go back and look to see what everyone was posting 2 years ago... All were wrong. Now everything seems so obvious again, but with everyone on the same page does that mean the gloom is already in the price?

The market has done something like 14% compound for over a decade, so if you can add to that by timing, then compounding at that rate for a decade... You'll be posting to share trader from your yacht in the med.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Jeez LEK .... so many 'Most assume' bad things

Unlike you to be so pessimistic

Was summing up how I think market participants are feeling. If everyone is pessimistic / assuming the worst, that might actually be encouraging in terms of where we are in the cycle.

[winner69]

Still selling well is book JUST KEEP BUYING

And this chart is intriguing ….usuaLyall a strong correlation between consumer Sentiment and how much US households have allocated to stocks but today consumer sentiment off the chart but allocation at very high levels in spite of SPX down about 20%

Maybe more carnage for US households

[alokdhir]

When KFL / BRM / MLN SP reach discounts to their NAVs ...I think will be time to start buying in market ...as that will surely show retail capitulation

They are still at hefty premiums which is surprising keeping in view negative retail sentiment ...but still shows retail confidence in the markets

[ralph]

It will be Interesting & more telling to look at that chart in six to twelve months ,as looking at the 2008 recession on there it lagged slightly behind .
It is starting to drop but sentiment never fully recovered from the 2020 dip and has never been so low

[Rawz]

When KFL / BRM / MLN SP reach discounts to their NAVs ...I think will be time to start buying in market ...as that will surely show retail capitulation

They are still at hefty premiums which is surprising keeping in view negative retail sentiment ...but still shows retail confidence in the markets

Yes this and the higher yields the more that premium will whittle away

[peat]

Its gettin very real

[Waltzing]

One auckland sailing blonde gal, an accountant used to say back in the late 80's.

And into the deep blue we go and some big greenies over the top.

Decided not to go sailing into the blue with her....

[alokdhir]

Yes this and the higher yields the more that premium will whittle away

If people can buy GNE and HGH with almost 10% gross yields then why need pay premium for 8% KFL yield ....I agree with u ...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Still selling well is book JUST KEEP BUYING

And this chart is intriguing ….usuaLyall a strong correlation between consumer Sentiment and how much US households have allocated to stocks but today consumer sentiment off the chart but allocation at very high levels in spite of SPX down about 20%

Maybe more carnage for US households

If I had to guess I would imagine the “asset allocation” line follows the employment rate more closely than the consumer sentiment. Normally consumer sentiment of course is probably correlated with the employment rate - but not at present (with very good employment and very bad sentiment).

also interesting to see how consumer sentiment actually translates into consumer activity, with words and actions perhaps being rather different.

For instance US airlines have bumper passenger levels currently, which doesn’t smell like something that happens in a recession.

[mfd]

If people can buy GNE and HGH with almost 10% gross yields then why need pay premium for 8% KFL yield ....I agree with u ...

Even better, they pay that yield out of earnings while KFL just sell a few shares on your behalf to make up the divi.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Every single stock in the S&P500 was red at the same time today at one point - that hasn’t happened in over a decade.

smells like capitulation.

[Balance]

Every single stock in the S&P500 was red at the same time today at one point - that hasn’t happened in over a decade.

smells like capitulation.

Not just yet.

Watch Bitcoin - when it drops to below $1,000 is when the madness in financial markets of hyper-overvaluations is over.

Then,

Buy

Buy

Buy

[LaserEyeKiwi]

The single best thing about this bear market is that crypto is getting crushed. I have zero time for crypto crap (especially bitcoin). I’m hoping there are a bunch of mega culpable soon from those institutional names that should have known better and instead chose to jump on these pump and dump schemes. That whole sham of an “industry” needs to be wiped out for the good of all.

[Beagle]

When KFL / BRM / MLN SP reach discounts to their NAVs ...I think will be time to start buying in market ...as that will surely show retail capitulation

They are still at hefty premiums which is surprising keeping in view negative retail sentiment ...but still shows retail confidence in the markets

You'd want your head "read" paying a massive premium to NTA for those stocks in this bear market.

[Onemootpoint]

VIX showed some movement too, but perhaps not total capitulation yet.

[Rawz]

Okay some stuff is looking really really cheap...

FBU
RAK
SUM
TRA
HGH
HMY
MFT

Is anyone buying or waiting for cheaper?

[percy]

Okay some stuff is looking really really cheap...

FBU
RAK
SUM
TRA
HGH
HMY
MFT

Is anyone buying or waiting for cheaper?

Yes.
Used the spare cash I had at the brokers to add to my STU holding at $1.20.DB show STU with a PE of 7.68 and a yield of 7.26%.
Also CEO and CFO have recently bought at $1.26 ..Recent trading update was good and outlook positive.
This year I have added both SEK and STU to my long term dividend portfolio.

[JBmurc]

Every single stock in the S&P500 was red at the same time today at one point - that hasn’t happened in over a decade.

smells like capitulation.

I agree and think we are closer to the end of this sell - off than start ....

[RRR]

Okay some stuff is looking really really cheap...

FBU
RAK
SUM
TRA
HGH
HMY
MFT

Is anyone buying or waiting for cheaper?

Bought more SUM at 9.3, ARG at 1.18
Unfilled buy orders STU, VGL

[ralph]

Red bear day for sure a lot of stuff at rock bottom ,J B I hope the end is nigh !!

[Ggcc]

Okay some stuff is looking really really cheap...

FBU
RAK
SUM
TRA
HGH
HMY
MFT

Is anyone buying or waiting for cheaper?
It will drop more when the fear truly kicks in. I am waiting for HGH to get to roughly $1.30 and TRA to be around $2.50 before I am interested to add more. Oh and maybe some OCA around 45 cents….. If lucky.

[Muse]

It will drop more when the fear truly kicks in. I am waiting for HGH to get to roughly $1.30 and TRA to be around $2.50 before I am interested to add more. Oh and maybe some OCA around 45 cents….. If lucky.

eyes on that inflation data

The US Fed meeting today and tomorrow and will be fascinating what they decide...do they pull out the bazooka 75bps rise for the first time since 1994 (the new fear being price in now)? Or do a 50bps rise but talk hard about more and higher interest rates (even threaten a 75bps if needed), or just do a piddly 50bps rise (in which case a short term rally).

we will get to where we get to regardless but will certainly cause some volatility this week on the upside/downside depending on what they do

[Beagle]

Jim Cramer and a lot of other commentators just want them to get on with it and do a 100 bps rise. Tell the market they're serious about taming inflation and try and restore some shred of dignity from their egregious largesse in recent years. I think if they bite the bullet it might actually help...otherwise I fear the market sees they are just toying with trying to get the inflation Genie back into the bottle and the Bear market continues on unchecked.

[Rawz]

Jim Cramer and a lot of other commentators just want them to get on with it and do a 100 bps rise. Tell the market they're serious about taming inflation and try and restore some shred of dignity from their egregious largesse in recent years. I think if they bite the bullet it might actually help...otherwise I fear the market sees they are just toying with trying to get the inflation Genie back into the bottle and the Bear market continues on unchecked.

Agree Beagle. And if they dont do it then it means they are happy for inflation to run with negative real rates. Got to get the govt debt under control somehow, taxing the people is the only way (inflation is a tax)

[Muse]

Agree Beagle. And if they dont do it then it means they are happy for inflation to run with negative real rates. Got to get the govt debt under control somehow, taxing the people is the only way (inflation is a tax)

its interesting where the orthodox ever came from...that 25bps is a normal hike, 50bps a big hike, and anything north of that is super duper extra ordinary. I guess the fed/ocr is but one piece of the puzzle, for floating rates, whereas longer term swap rates are set by expectations gleaned from where the fed/rbnz statements and interest rate guidance for future fed rates. but none the less, if you have an issue now, and given there is quite delay in how spending responds to monetary policy, I don't understand waiting around several quarters to get to where you need to be now.

another interesting aspect is the difference in how different countries fix their mortgages. Americans tend to fix for 30 years (and pretty common to refinance in falling cycles), kiwis tend to fix for 1-2yrs on average, and the majority of lending in oz is variable (which explains a bit why they panicked so much when the RBA raised their rates more than expected - and in the face of only earlier in the year being adamant that rates wouldn't rise until 2024 at the earliest). so in theory consumers should be the most sensitive to rises in AU, then NZ as people refix, and last in the USA. then households will have none mortgage personnel lending which will be shorter term, and then businesses usually only fixing a portion of their debt (say75%), and in difference tranches of maturities (but say circa 3-7 years).

[Beagle]

Its official, the Bear is here https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/its-official-nz-sharemarket-slides-into-bear-market-after-wall-street-rout/PKB6QRKWF3SAODZU4Y7XV5RJBM/
Paywalled. Contains get picture of an angry bear. Here's another https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=trWWc9ha&id=9B1D77105A38664615CB9D2C24FDEA8718011F24&thid=OIP.trWWc9ha_t44LD3Vs9ZWvgHaLH&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2ftownsquare.media%2fsite%2f1 24%2ffiles%2f2019%2f03%2fgettyimages-1061398490-594x594.jpg%3fw%3d1200%26h%3d0%26zc%3d1%26s%3d0%26 a%3dt%26q%3d89&cdnurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.b6b 59673d85afede382c3dd5b3d656be%3frik%3dJB8BGIfq%252 fSQsnQ%26pid%3dImgRaw%26r%3d0&exph=1800&expw=1200&q=bear+picture&simid=607995901483571464&FORM=IRPRST&ck=DA90AC52279F97C94CA4F3FD190AFDA5&selectedIndex=7&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0

[dobby41]

Contains get picture of an angry bear.

This bear
13899

[Azz]

The single best thing about this bear market is that crypto is getting crushed. I have zero time for crypto crap (especially bitcoin). I’m hoping there are a bunch of mega culpable soon from those institutional names that should have known better and instead chose to jump on these pump and dump schemes. That whole sham of an “industry” needs to be wiped out for the good of all.

What an ignorant statement.

[Azz]

Watch Bitcoin - when it drops to below $1,000 is when the madness in financial markets of hyper-overvaluations is over.

And when will this "below $1,000" Bitcoin price happen, exactly? Because I predict NEVER.

[couta1]

And when will this "below $1,000" Bitcoin price happen, exactly? Because I predict NEVER. My wife would also like to know as she has been buying a bit of Bitcoin lately and she would hate to miss out on topping up below $1000.

[Entrep]

Heaps of buy alerts I set 6-12+ months ago going off. Still sitting on hands.

[Sideshow Bob]

At times like this, good to have a decent amount on the Unlisted market. While the low or illiquidity can be a double-edge sword, definitely feeling the benefit the like of today.

Only 2 companies are down today....PAZ down 3c/4.4% or Zespri down 0.5% (which you can't buy anyway).

[LaserEyeKiwi]

What an ignorant statement.

Lol - hope you enjoying your “protection against inflation” & “store of value” there buddy.

[Panda-NZ-]

Poor homeowners who recently bought in Auckland.

Might be simpler to declare bankrupcy -- don't let the banks own your entire life.

[Beagle]

Lol - hope you enjoying your “protection against inflation” & “store of value” there buddy.

Well said, Crypto is nothing more than the current version of the tulip / deer velvet / angora goat boom that went bust although at least with those three they were actually real things. Supporters will say, no wait,, its different this time, (where's my Tui ?)...just like every other supporter of every other temporary "craze" said last time.
Because there's not actually anything real and tangible its really just a Ponzi scheme in drag in my opinion.

[Beagle]

This bear
13899

Doesn't look like he wants to take any prisoners :scared: :scared:

[Panda-NZ-]

The US and european markets are untested for higher interest rates.

..14 years spent at near 0%.

[couta1]

Well said, Crypto is nothing more than the current version of the tulip / deer velvet / angora goat boom that went bust although at least with those three they were actually real things. Supporters will say, no wait,, its different this time, (where's my Tui ?)...just like every other supporter of every other temporary "craze" said last time.
Because there's not actually anything real and tangible its really just a Ponzi scheme in drag in my opinion. You won't be saying that when you have a Digital currency ruling your life, get ready cause its on its way, but wait you say its not real or tangible, that won't alter its reality.

[Azz]

Well said, Crypto is nothing more than the current version of the tulip / deer velvet / angora goat boom that went bust although at least with those three they were actually real things. Supporters will say, no wait,, its different this time, (where's my Tui ?)...just like every other supporter of every other temporary "craze" said last time.
Because there's not actually anything real and tangible its really just a Ponzi scheme in drag in my opinion.

If you would explain "real and tangible" and how it relates to the value agreed between buyers and sellers please; you sound like a really intelligent person with an extreme amount of applicable knowledge and life experience.

[Beagle]

If you would explain "real and tangible" and how it relates to the value agreed between buyers and sellers please; you sound like a really intelligent person with an extreme amount of applicable knowledge and life experience.

I think its clear enough already. People are simply playing Russian Roulette with which crypto they think might go on to become a widespread means of exchange. That's gambling, not investing.

[Azz]

Lol - hope you enjoying your “protection against inflation” & “store of value” there buddy.

Bitcoin is a terrible investment to people of a certain antisocial personality type who also have not invested in it over its current 13 year lifespan.

[Azz]

I think its clear enough already. People are simply playing Russian Roulette with which crypto they think might go on to become a widespread means of exchange. That's gambling, not investing.

"Clear enough already"...? That's unfortunate. I was interested in your great wisdom and insight.

[mike2020]

"Clear enough already"...? That's unfortunate. I was interested in your great wisdom and insight.

I think if you take a good long look at the history of crypto with a new set of eyes. I knew people "mining" bitcoin and it is the currency of choice with scammers and dark net dealers. Give it some cred and it's still lipstick on a pig. The only reason the make it more acceptable to mainstream is tax.

[Beagle]

"Clear enough already"...? That's unfortunate. I was interested in your great wisdom and insight.

There's any number of experts (such as Warren Buffet to name just one) that think Crypto has no value.
Eventually digital currency of one form or another might go on to be a widespread means of exchange but there is no plausible or reliable way of saying what form that might take and whether any of the existing crypto currencies might be "the one".
I'm not pretending to be an expert on the subject, I just think this is an extremely risky and highly speculative area of the market. Crypto pays no dividends and earns no interest but in news out overnight it appears one major exchange has been halted because of outflows and it would seem some people were lending their crypto at interest rates up to 18% per annum. In my opinion a lot of this speculation has been fueled by a tech asset bubble not dissimilar to the dotcom boom just over 20 years ago.

The Nasdaq lost about 90% of its value as the dot.com boom came crashing back to earth in 2001 and 2002. The same or worse could easily happen to crypto. The bear market in tech and in crypto in 2022 has happened at the same time. Coincidence ? One of the big arguments was that crypto was going to give valuable diversification. The Bull and now Bear markets in tech and crypto seem to have happened pretty much in sync from what I have observed. Nasdaq has been in a Bull market ever since 2007 until recently.

I invest in productive companies that pay me good dividends. Wild speculation in digital things like Crypto of NFT's that pay no dividends and can only go up based on the greater fool principle is not for an aging Beagle nearing retirement. Maybe for a young person as a very small part of a very well diversified portfolio but its not for me. In my career of 40 years as an accountant I have seen Deer go up as high as $20,000 a head as lots of people thought the Velvet from their antlers was the panacea for all their ills and Angora and Cashmere goats go as high as $15,000 a head as what they produced was supposed to be the next miracle product. Neither of these livestock types are anywhere remotely near those values now. It was all based on limited supply, demand and speculation about the next big thing that was supposed to happen. Hope that adds some useful perspective for you.

Easy riches can disappear just as easily as they arrived https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/cryptocurrencies-sell-off-continues-bitcoin-and-ethereum-fall.html

[Balance]

And when will this "below $1,000" Bitcoin price happen, exactly? Because I predict NEVER.

When is the right word - because it is not If.

Warren Buffett believes it is overvalued at $1.

[Azz]

Warren Buffett believes it is overvalued at $1.

Well in that case I'll start loading up on it at $1 then! If you would point me to a seller or an exchange where it costs that much I'd really appreciate it!

[Snow Leopard]

There is a perfectly good Cryptocurrency Sub Forum (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/forumdisplay.php?38-Cryptocurrency-Forum) for this sort of mindless argument and I strongly suggest that you all take yourselves and your worthless opinions off to it.

[Balance]

Well in that case I'll start loading up on it at $1 then! If you would point me to a seller or an exchange where it costs that much I'd really appreciate it!

Approach me when it is 50c.

I will happily oblige you.

You still holding your DGL and praising Simon Whimp?

[Balance]

There is a perfectly good Cryptocurrency Sub Forum (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/forumdisplay.php?38-Cryptocurrency-Forum) for this sort of mindless argument and I strongly suggest that you all take yourselves and your worthless opinions off to it.

And you can hide yourself in the newly fallen snow in Queenstown with your sanctimonious postings.

[Azz]

There's any number of experts (such as Warren Buffet to name just one) that think Crypto has no value.
Eventually digital currency of one form or another might go on to be a widespread means of exchange but there is no plausible or reliable way of saying what form that might take and whether any of the existing crypto currencies might be "the one".
I'm not pretending to be an expert on the subject, I just think this is an extremely risky and highly speculative area of the market. Crypto pays no dividends and earns no interest but in news out overnight it appears one major exchange has been halted because of outflows and it would seem some people were lending their crypto at interest rates up to 18% per annum. In my opinion a lot of this speculation has been fueled by a tech asset bubble not dissimilar to the dotcom boom just over 20 years ago.

The Nasdaq lost about 90% of its value as the dot.com boom came crashing back to earth in 2001 and 2002. The same or worse could easily happen to crypto. The bear market in tech and in crypto in 2022 has happened at the same time. Coincidence ? One of the big arguments was that crypto was going to give valuable diversification. The Bull and now Bear markets in tech and crypto seem to have happened pretty much in sync from what I have observed. Nasdaq has been in a Bull market ever since 2007 until recently.

I invest in productive companies that pay me good dividends. Wild speculation in digital things like Crypto of NFT's that pay no dividends and can only go up based on the greater fool principle is not for an aging Beagle nearing retirement. Maybe for a young person as a very small part of a very well diversified portfolio but its not for me. In my career of 40 years as an accountant I have seen Deer go up as high as $20,000 a head as lots of people thought the Velvet from their antlers was the panacea for all their ills and Angora and Cashmere goats go as high as $15,000 a head as what they produced was supposed to be the next miracle product. Neither of these livestock types are anywhere remotely near those values now. It was all based on limited supply, demand and speculation about the next big thing that was supposed to happen. Hope that adds some useful perspective for you.

Easy riches can disappear just as easily as they arrived https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/cryptocurrencies-sell-off-continues-bitcoin-and-ethereum-fall.html

I don't think Buffett is an expert, actually. I would guess he has trouble logging into his "hard drive". Some good points you make, however. But there are two things that allow for a successful medium of exchange/store of value. 1) scarcity, and 2) tradition. Cryptography can create scarcity just as well as finding and then digging precious metals out of the ground - except it's pretty difficult to send, for example, gold over the internet. And tradition just occurs at a certain point. Of interest is that both these things (scarcity & tradition) turned cigarettes into a currency in prisons.

[couta1]

On another note its looks like the Bears claws might be getting a bit of a trim on the US tonight.

[Azz]

I think if you take a good long look at the history of crypto with a new set of eyes. I knew people "mining" bitcoin and it is the currency of choice with scammers and dark net dealers. Give it some cred and it's still lipstick on a pig. The only reason the make it more acceptable to mainstream is tax.

The currency of choice for criminals, terrorists, drug dealers, and the like - is the US Dollar.

[Azz]

Approach me when it is 50c.

As much as I would enjoy approaching you, Balance, it's never going to happen. Bitcoin is here to stay, and after this shakeout - which is not just affecting Bitcoin but entire stock markets - it will hit another all time high.

[Azz]

You still holding your DGL?

Absolutely. Plenty of brass in muck.

[Azz]

You still praising Simon Whimp?

Now, now. Be nice.

[Balance]

As much as I would enjoy approaching you, Balance, it's never going to happen. Bitcoin is here to stay, and after this shakeout - which is not just affecting Bitcoin but entire stock markets - it will hit another all time high.

For the sake of El Salvadorans, hope so.

The poor buggers ditched US$ for bitcoins. Ouch!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/el-salvadors-president-went-all-in-on-bitcoin-then-it-tanked-11652540400

[Beagle]

Interesting video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rE2izXZuaJ8

[Beagle]

This Bear market is the real deal https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/liam-dann-why-the-bear-market-is-the-real-deal-this-time/HYOCX7J77QQ2OGLKTHLHXLZ3DQ/ Paywalled.

[Bob50]

But there are two things that allow for a successful medium of exchange/store of value. 1) scarcity, and 2) tradition. Cryptography can create scarcity .

I wonder if I could create my own crypto currency to add to the 18000 others in existence. I could call it Bob’s crypto and limit production to 10 million- better buy it quick it has a limited supply.

[Oberon]

As much as I would enjoy approaching you, Balance, it's never going to happen. Bitcoin is here to stay, and after this shakeout - which is not just affecting Bitcoin but entire stock markets - it will hit another all time high.

I mean, this is just what happens. Same conversation after the COVID crash. Some see this price action and feel vindicated - even though said price action is across all global markets.

It's quite good to register the same conversations at the peaks and troughs of cycles for future reference. I understand the scepticism; I trade it to make money. I'm not attached to any particular narrative.

I'm not saying it can't go zero of course. BTC has always flourished in an easy money environment - now comes the real test once we move through this capitulation period.

[Muse]

I wonder if I could create my own crypto currency to add to the 18000 others in existence. I could call it Bob’s crypto and limit production to 10 million- better buy it quick it has a limited supply.

I'd buy that.

[Oberon]

I wonder if I could create my own crypto currency to add to the 18000 others in existence. I could call it Bob’s crypto and limit production to 10 million- better buy it quick it has a limited supply.

You could, of course.

Pro-tip: name it Bob the Bunny. 10 million bob the bunnies, pump to 0.005c -- WIN!

Get Elon on board and sky's the limit (until it collapses).

[Rawz]

I listened to a podcast the other day and the bitcoin bull guest said the way he views bitcoin is the same way he views an insurance contract. The insurance contract is something you pay for monthly but how do you calculate its intrinsic value..?

And he was saying the de-centralized blah blah bitcoin is in a way the same.

I like the idea of bitcoin but wowee it is volatile. Totally un-investable

[couta1]

This Bear market is the real deal https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/liam-dann-why-the-bear-market-is-the-real-deal-this-time/HYOCX7J77QQ2OGLKTHLHXLZ3DQ/ Paywalled. So you keep telling us, what do you want us to do, sell up everything for a loss and sit in sackcloth and ashes or throw a teddy bears picnic?

[Balance]

I listened to a podcast the other day and the bitcoin bull guest said the way he views bitcoin is the same way he views an insurance contract. The insurance contract is something you pay for monthly but how do you calculate its intrinsic value..?

And he was saying the de-centralized blah blah bitcoin is in a way the same.

I like the idea of bitcoin but wowee it is volatile. Totally un-investable

Crypto reminds me 100% of the Dotcom mania. FOMO.

Any company with a dot.com doubled in price, irrespective of what it does.

It got to a stage that one company called itself Dotcom.Dotcom!

When the crash came for Dotcoms, they all went crashing with most of them dead.

[Beagle]

So you keep telling us, what do you want us to do, sell up everything for a loss and sit in sackcloth and ashes or throw a teddy bears picnic?

People have to own their own decisions. You know I have always been an advocate for a well diversified portfolio and taking a proactive and prudent approach to risk management but its clear you have very different ways of doing things and won't change.

Some people are eliminating all debt, strategically repositioning their portfolio into more defensive shares, freezing any capex expenditure and battening down the hatches with expenditure for a long Bear market. You already know I'm also an advocate for staying well informed of international news and the world's leading business channel CNBC channel 91 on Sky is definitely a subscription that is well worth the cost. You get access through interviews they conduct with the world's biggest company CEO's and fund managers and other experts to some of the world's greatest minds, (far, far brighter than you or I), and their current thinking for a very modest monthly subscription cost. Maybe you could give a go for a while and see what you think...that's my top pick for you for an inexpensive and actionable strategy you can start with !

No need for sackcloth yet but my Dad had to wear exactly that in the great depression years so you never really know what's coming.

[davflaws]

People have to own their own decisions. You know I have always been an advocate for a well diversified portfolio and taking a proactive and prudent approach to risk management but its clear you have very different ways of doing things and won't change.

No need for sackcloth yet but my Dad had to wear exactly that in the great depression years so you never really know what's coming.

Kia ora Beagle and Couta - you seem to be at opposite ends of what I think of as the "caution spectrum", and as I have just got home from a menz group where we discussed exactly that in relation to lots of facets of our lives, the topic is very much "front of mind" for me.

I think you are probably both right in your own particular way, and it occurs to me that one of the secrets of investing happily and being able to sleep soundly is knowing ones own tolerance for risk and uncertainty, need for security, and desire a particular level of material posessions.

People are different. I guess that is no big news - but in relation to the way they invest and the level of income and material posessions they want/need to have - their own personal and family history seems very important.

Like Beagle, I grew up with tales of the depression, and a mum who kept every cupboard in the house filled with "stuff too good to throw out". She was into saving, and kept her inheritance (two thirds of a good farm) in the POSB until inflation had eaten it away to the price of a small new car. So my family's example around "thift and security" was certainly equivocal.

In my own life I have been very very poor. That wasn't nice because our level of material comfort was low and I was too busy trying to lift us out of that situation to give my family the time and attention they needed.

Later we were just poor. That was much better because we were physically comfortable, fed well enough, and with time to spend together and energy and attention to spare for my family, I was pretty happy and learned that I don't need a lot of material posessions to be content. My subsequent saving and investment strategies have reflected those learnings about myself. If the **** hits the fan bigtime, I can always row out and set my longline - and still be happy.

But other people need/want more, and behave accordingly. Beagle has worked and invested to get a substantial amount of money and he needs it because he has expensive tastes in boats and cars (and probably houses), and he is cautious and defensive when the bear growls. His father's experience in the depression still resonates at some level.

Couta is different again. His material needs/wants seem greater than mine , but he has "risked big" in the past.

None of us are wrong!

[Bobdn]

Guys! guys! Sorry to interrupt! Oil is marching higher just now and the NZD has sunk further.

Will we see double digit inflation by the end of the year? It could be like the 1970s all over again. Exciting!!!

[alokdhir]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/those-who-buy-stocks-the-day-after-the-s-p-500-enters-a-bear-market-have-made-an-average-of-22-7-in-12-months-11655224023?mod=home-page

[Tomtom]

None of us are wrong! Most of our opinions are wrong, to varying extents, most of the time. However it isn't high impact because they are not views that are tightly held, we have no intention of acting on them so it's inconsequential what our opinion is.

One of the things I enjoy most about investing is there is an objective truth that is measurable and verifiable. It's an unabashed honesty I've come to appreciate.


It could be like the 1970s all over again. Brown, asbestos, smelling of spilled beer and stale cigarette smoke?

[Balance]

Guys! guys! Sorry to interrupt! Oil is marching higher just now and the NZD has sunk further.

Will we see double digit inflation by the end of the year? It could be like the 1970s all over again. Exciting!!!

The 70s was a cake walk compared to the 80s when mortgage interest rates in NZ peaked at 22%.

There will be many savers happy to leave their funds in fixed term deposits to reap the high interest income.

Meanwhile, mortgage borrowers are going to be so stuffed.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

The 70s was a cake walk compared to the 80s when mortgage interest rates in NZ peaked at 22%.

There will be many savers happy to leave their funds in fixed term deposits to reap the high interest income.

Meanwhile, mortgage borrowers are going to be so stuffed.

The S&P500 averaged a 17.4% annual return in the 1980s - Stocks are the best form of inflation protection normally.

And if wage increases are in the same ballpark as inflation, then mortgage balances get inflated away in real terms as mortgage payments are always a lot smaller than a person salary so any increase in both works in favour of those in debt.

1. For instance Paul & Nancy earn after tax salary of $100,000 & has mortgage interest payments of $30,000, leaving $70,000 remained of after tax income. Their mortgage principle left is $350,000 which is 3.5x their after tax salary

2. After a period of time their salary & mortgage interest payments have increased by 50%

3. Paul & Nancy now earn $150,000 and their mortgage interest payments are now $45,000, leaving $95,000 remaining of after tax income. Their mortgage principle left is now $300,000, which is just 2x their after tax salary.

Yes there spending power (after subtracting best interest costs) in inflation adjusted terms is a bit lower, but their debt burden as a proportion of income is drastically lower (not to mention any stocks or savings they may have would be worth 50% more as well, and the property they have the mortgage on probably too).

Yes a very simple hypothetical above (the gains get smaller if wage increases are less than debt interest increases), but highlighting that sometimes High interest rates can also giveth, and not just taketh.

[Azz]

I wonder if I could create my own crypto currency to add to the 18000 others in existence. I could call it Bob’s crypto and limit production to 10 million- better buy it quick it has a limited supply.

Very good point - you get it - and aligns with what I said re scarcity. Bitcoin, the one, the only. Buy altcoins at your own peril!

[Waltzing]

MHJ and SKC held up well today. Amazing performance.

[Azz]

MHJ and SKC held up well today. Amazing performance.

Everything I own is worth less today, including NZ cash of course. But some people will be ecstatic: those people saying Bitcoin is a worthless scam obviously all put their money where their mouths are and long ago shorted it and are drowning in profit.

[Bobdn]

When did you buy your Bitcoin. Are you up overall or did you buy in more recently. What percentage of your portfolio is Bitcoin.

I'm a boring old etf and index investor but I still allow myself 5 per cent to put towards anything I want. One has to have some fun.

[Waltzing]

Any stock that did not move down today is an amazing performance.

[winner69]

Any stock that did not move down today is an amazing performance.

Sadly MHJ seemed to go down …not so amazing

[Balance]

Any stock that did not move down today is an amazing performance.

Several of my stocks went up today! :t_up:

After getting unduely battered in the last 2 days imo. :p

[Azz]

When did you buy your Bitcoin. Are you up overall or did you buy in more recently. What percentage of your portfolio is Bitcoin.

I'm a boring old etf and index investor but I still allow myself 5 per cent to put towards anything I want. One has to have some fun.

I'll answer that with the following. I think every investor should put a sliding 30% to 5% of net worth into high-risk investment according to age from young to old; and Bitcoin now in my view is not in that high-risk category anymore; and that the ol' coin is easily the greatest investment in my lifetime, and anyone who bothers to study its growth via yearly lows since inception will see a "volatile" asset that goes only one way: up. It is a 20-year growth play via multi-year periods of ever more functional stability, and with over 100 years of mining left. Rome wasn't built in a day. Satoshi couldn't have said in 2009, "Here's Bitcoin. It's worth $1m a coin." It will take 20 years. It's a projected 4-storey building. We're now on the 3rd storey which is livable and available but still in construction. I liked the look of the 2nd storey when that was all that was available, and acted accordingly. It astounds me the ignorance I hear, where any empirical look at the history of Bitcoin and its protocol clearly shows what an incredible invention it is. As for "crypto" and "NFTs" and "blockchain", I'm not interested in any of it, it's all garbage. The future is Bitcoin, not "crypto".

[Waltzing]

Bit Coin "fools greater Theory".

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/bill-gates-says-crypto-and-nfts-are-based-on-greater-fool-theory.html

its going to be around for a while and maybe bitcoin goes to zero and other technologies split off from it as has already happened.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I'll answer that with the following. I think every investor should put a sliding 30% to 5% of net worth into high-risk investment according to age from young to old; and Bitcoin now in my view is not in that high-risk category anymore; and that the ol' coin is easily the greatest investment in my lifetime, and anyone who bothers to study its growth via yearly lows since inception will see a "volatile" asset that goes only one way: up. It is a 20-year growth play via multi-year periods of ever more functional stability, and with over 100 years of mining left. Rome wasn't built in a day. Satoshi couldn't have said in 2009, "Here's Bitcoin. It's worth $1m a coin." It will take 20 years. It's a projected 4-storey building. We're now on the 3rd storey which is livable and available but still in construction. I liked the look of the 2nd storey when that was all that was available, and acted accordingly. It astounds me the ignorance I hear, where any empirical look at the history of Bitcoin and its protocol clearly shows what an incredible invention it is. As for "crypto" and "NFTs" and "blockchain", I'm not interested in any of it, it's all garbage. The future is Bitcoin, not "crypto".

Free comedy gold right here.

anyone in Bitcoin is ether the grifter or the rube. Being either is unenviable.

[Azz]

Bit Coin "fools greater Theory".

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/bill-gates-says-crypto-and-nfts-are-based-on-greater-fool-theory.html

its going to be around for a while and maybe bitcoin goes to zero and other technologies split off from it as has already happened.

Not a single person I've ever heard bashing Bitcoin then states that they have shorted it. It's really surprising to me: so much certainty; and yet so little desire to profit from it.

[Azz]

Free comedy gold right here.

Not a single person I've ever heard bashing Bitcoin then states that they have shorted it. It's really surprising to me: so much certainty; and yet so little desire to profit from it.

[Waltzing]

well at least with Tulips you could use them in a flower arrangement which is more than you can say for some funny maths....

and Gates doesnt need anymore money.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Not a single person I've ever heard bashing Bitcoin then states that they have shorted it. It's really surprising to me: so much certainty; and yet so little desire to profit from it.

No one here has any interest in Bitcoin - whether long or short - because most here are old enough to have seen speculative bubbles before and are aware how unpredictable the inevitable blow up is.

Everyone with half a brain can see the con a mile away. But there is always another generation around to learn the hard lesson. This one is told to read Sapiens and all of a sudden they think they are onto a goldmine, ignoring the obvious telltale signs repeated from cults, scams and pump and dump actions from many past renditions.

don’t forget to tell me “to enjoy staying poor” & “you don’t understand the technology”’.

The funniest thing I like watching is Bitcoin Maxis freaking out when people started talking up Dogecoin and complaining that people did not realize its “not a real currency”. the lack of self awareness is just the chefs kiss. I never laughed so hard ever as I did then.

[ynot]

I'll answer that with the following. I think every investor should put a sliding 30% to 5% of net worth into high-risk investment according to age from young to old; and Bitcoin now in my view is not in that high-risk category anymore; and that the ol' coin is easily the greatest investment in my lifetime, and anyone who bothers to study its growth via yearly lows since inception will see a "volatile" asset that goes only one way: up. It is a 20-year growth play via multi-year periods of ever more functional stability, and with over 100 years of mining left. Rome wasn't built in a day. Satoshi couldn't have said in 2009, "Here's Bitcoin. It's worth $1m a coin." It will take 20 years. It's a projected 4-storey building. We're now on the 3rd storey which is livable and available but still in construction. I liked the look of the 2nd storey when that was all that was available, and acted accordingly. It astounds me the ignorance I hear, where any empirical look at the history of Bitcoin and its protocol clearly shows what an incredible invention it is. As for "crypto" and "NFTs" and "blockchain", I'm not interested in any of it, it's all garbage. The future is Bitcoin, not "crypto".

4 story building. - More like a deck of cards.

[Azz]

No one here has any interest in Bitcoin - whether long or short - because most here are old enough to have seen speculative bubbles before and are aware how unpredictable the inevitable blow up is.

Everyone with half a brain can see the con a mile away. But there is always another generation around to learn the hard lesson. This one is told to read Sapiens and all of a sudden they think they are onto a goldmine, ignoring the obvious telltale signs repeated from cults, scams and pump and dump actions from many past renditions.

"No one here has any interest in Bitcoin"

Even for you that's an incredibly pompous statement. Well done.

"speculative bubbles"

Do you include the current S&P and the Nasdaq in this? Or are those almighty slides something different?

"Everyone with half a brain can see..."

So you admit that's you. Well done again.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

well at least with Tulips you could use them in a flower arrangement which is more than you can say for some funny maths....

and Gates doesnt need anymore money.

Waltzing - my 5 year old niece has created 10 coins from old weetbix cartons and her crayons, only 10 & a half of them will ever exist (the dog ate half of one). Due to their scarcity they will one day be worth $10 Trillion each. You can get one now for only $67,000.

[Azz]

well at least with Tulips you could use them in a flower arrangement which is more than you can say for some funny maths....

and Gates doesnt need anymore money.

Bitcoin is not tulips. For a start, tulips are not divisible and spendable over the internet and at the same time stopping double spend.

And I'm not talking about Gates who ignorantly thought you couldn't short Bitcoin, I'm talking about the people here, for a start. Why is it that if Bitcoin is going to zero etc you aren't informing everyone about your Bitcoin shorts? I thought this was an investment website?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

"No one here has any interest in Bitcoin"

Even for you that's an incredibly pompous statement. Well done.

"speculative bubbles"

Do you include the current S&P and the Nasdaq in this? Or are those almighty slides something different?

"Everyone with half a brain can see..."

So you admit that's you. Well done again.

Ha ha ha - is that all you got? Surely you can do better than that! You are failing to erase all doubts in the superiority of the almighty bitcoin!

Don’t forget the key rule number one to being a Bitcoin pusher is to ruthlessly shame anyone who remotely expresses doubt in bitcoin to the point that they shut up and stop discouraging others with their logic! Apes strong together!

[Azz]

4 story building. - More like a deck of cards.

You're secretly wishing you were in on the first or second storeys though eh.

[Azz]

Ha ha ha - is that all you got? Surely you can do better than that! You are failing to erase all doubts in the superiority of the almighty bitcoin!

Don’t forget the key rule number one to being a Bitcoin pusher is to ruthlessly shame anyone who remotely expresses doubt in bitcoin to the point that they shut up and stop discouraging others with their logic! Apes strong together!

I'm wondering why you won't put your money where your mouth is, that's all.

[Azz]

Waltzing - my 5 year old niece has created 10 coins from old weetbix cartons and her crayons, only 10 & a half of them will ever exist (the dog ate half of one). Due to their scarcity they will one day be worth $10 Trillion each. You can get one now for only $67,000.

Your ignorance is embarrassing.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Your ignorance is embarrassing.

Check out Baghdad bob over here.

The irony is delicious.

I will sleep well tonight.

[Bobdn]

@Azz sounds like you've done well getting in on the "second floor". I should have bought a handfull when it went down to $5000 NZD in 2020. It wouldn't have hurt and as long as I keep to my 5 per cent "mad money" rule, it's ok. My 5 per cent is oil at the moment (equities not the commodity)

[Azz]

Check out Baghdad bob over here.

The irony is delicious.

I will sleep well tonight.

You will sleep well because your mind is empty.

[Azz]

@Azz sounds like you've done well getting in on the "second floor". I should have bought a handfull when it went down to $5000 NZD in 2020. It wouldn't have hurt and as long as I keep to my 5 per cent "mad money" rule, it's ok. My 5 per cent is oil at the moment (equities not the commodity)

Your 5 per cent "mad money" rule is bloody brilliant; keep doing it!

I sold an oil minor just before all the troubles and bought into a what appears to be empty gold mine lol. Kicking myself!

[t.rexjr]

Not a single person I've ever heard bashing Bitcoin then states that they have shorted it. It's really surprising to me: so much certainty; and yet so little desire to profit from it.

Soo what you must understand is that those who relate bitcoin type things to pyramid scheme type things, don't want anything to do with it... at all... It has nothing to do with trying to profit off it. There is no regret or 'fomo' as involvement is simply not desirable nor palatable...

[Azz]

Soo what you must understand is that those who relate bitcoin type things to pyramid scheme type things, don't want anything to do with it... at all... It has nothing to do with trying to profit off it. There is no regret or 'fomo' as involvement is simply not palatable nor desirable.

First of all, I don't believe a word of that. These people are making proclamations and predictions and are completely 100% sure of their correctness. And yet, on this INVESTMENT website they don't wish to use instruments to profit from their complete and utter conviction.

Secondly, at what point do these people admit they're wrong? How many years do they need? How many "it's a scam" screams can they yell?

Bitcoin:
$30 - it's a scam!
$100 - it's a scam!
$150 - it's a scam!
$300 - it's a scam!
$1,600 - it's a scam!
$3,000 - it's a scam!
$6,500 - it's a scam!
$10,000 - it's a scam!
$20,000 - it's a scam!
$65,000 - it's a scam!

[Azz]

Bitcoin will put in a bottom soon. And that bottom will be what used to be once an all time high. That is an asset in an overall *upward* trajectory.

[Tomtom]

No one here has any interest in Bitcoin... I mined 0.06 bitcoins back in early 2013 when Bloomberg published a story where Jamie Dimon was asked about it. I thought a digital currency was a novel idea but basically lost interest because it was never widely adopted for real-world purchases. In no way on my part did I ever think people would turn it into a speculative frenzy.

I don't pretend to be an expert in any way but maybe it's like BetaMax? It's a good proof-of-concept and might one day lead to something useful for society.

[fish]

Bitcoin will put in a bottom soon. And that bottom will be what used to be once an all time high. That is an asset in an overall *upward* trajectory.

Crypto topics have their own forum where you should move this discussion .

[Waltzing]

Powell just slugged it to em... and the market goes GREEN!!!

you know "the crowd goes wild".

bugger though the market could go lower.

[alokdhir]

Powell just slugged it to em... and the market goes GREEN!!!

you know "the crowd goes wild".

bugger though the market could go lower.

Market has no problems with rates going up ...thats already in the prices ...Markets needs certainty of a Plan to tackle this Inflation problem and Powell provided one which market seems to accept at the moment

Talk of 3.8% end rates also didnt spook the markets ...as its little below what market thought already

[Waltzing]

Also a survey says the locals are putting more into shares then TD's.

This is good news for the investing community but one would hope it doesnt end in misery as the companies dont live up to public expectations.

Its not the market thats the problem its the Bond markets and any up ticket could still be short lived.

Revised earnings are yet to be released. As we all know rates alone wont stuff out inflation it supply side.

perhaps the GOVT has under estimated the investment mind set of average kiwis loving the idea of MAKING MONEY and Capital Gains.

They LOVE the share market for the first time since the 80's!!!!

[Balance]

A good read of how a Joe Average handles bear markets and invests successfully over 70 years :

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-not-going-to-zero-how-this-individual-investor-with-70-years-of-experience-is-trading-the-bear-market-11655253258

Always remember that markets are driven by hope, greed and fear.

Fear is by far the most powerful emotion which is why markets drop as sharply and as fast as they do.

Learn to control your emotions and treat bear markets as great buying opportunities.

For long term investors that is.

Good investing, folks! Have a lovely day!

[LaserEyeKiwi]

First of all, I don't believe a word of that. These people are making proclamations and predictions and are completely 100% sure of their correctness. And yet, on this INVESTMENT website they don't wish to use instruments to profit from their complete and utter conviction.

Secondly, at what point do these people admit they're wrong? How many years do they need? How many "it's a scam" screams can they yell?

Bitcoin:
$30 - it's a scam!
$100 - it's a scam!
$150 - it's a scam!
$300 - it's a scam!
$1,600 - it's a scam!
$3,000 - it's a scam!
$6,500 - it's a scam!
$10,000 - it's a scam!
$20,000 - it's a scam!
$65,000 - it's a scam!

Thanks for reminding us all the high was $67k (todays low was $20k - a ~70% pullback from ATH).

You keep bringing up “why not short?”. Ok here you go:

Normal investors don’t short anything, they simply don’t invest in them.

Reasons for avoiding shorting:

- Shorting makes you a trader, and the associated negative tax consequences would be stupid for most of us here with large investment portfolios.
- Shorting exposes you to unlimited losses as there is no upside cap on a value, whereas being long has a known maximum downside exposure, any experienced investor knows shorting is far riskier than being long.
- Timing is impossible to predict, you can be right but still lose if you get timing wrong, which is especially risky with highly volatile speculative assets.
- Shorting something means you pay for the cost to borrow the asset you are shorting, or the premium on puts if you use that tool. Also
- The ability to short is thankfully limited/non-existent through NZ broking platforms, and next to non-existent for anything crypto-related.

The reasons to avoid shorting anything (not just crypto) are long.

Most here were investing through previous bubbles (particularly the 2000 dot com bubble) and know exactly the risks. It was easy to see in 2000 that there were thousands of nonsense companies with ridiculous valuations and it would all end in tears - but any attempt to short by bearish traders before the final crash was usually a fools errand and you ended up with your faced ripped off as stupid valuations increased to insane valuations and beyond - it’s simply impossible to know how stupid people will get in a FOMO environment. It’s both sad and amusing to hear all the exact same weak arguments being made by young people as to why crypto is a good investment as that blurted out over 20 years ago about dot com companies. A technology is not the same as a sound business model. Unfortunately the only way most of these people will learn is from the experience of losing their money.

Another example why shorting is a bad idea, even when you are right: I have some acquaintances that successfully identified a lot of the bubble stocks in the most recent market run up (most of the SPAC names etc) - however even though they were completely right in the companies they identified as going to collapse in value (which they all now have), they lost a lot of money attempting to short them on multiple attempts, as the companies continued to move higher. Repeating for emphasis: with shorting you not only have to be correct in picking which assets are overvalued, but also when the downward correction will happen (which is essentially impossible to predict accurately).

Its much easier to simply identify good investments and buy and hold. Plus, if you are wrong in your judgement or timing the maximum you can lose is what you invested (as opposed to the unlimited exposure of shorting)

When it come to shorting, the best and safest move for the sensible investor is simply not to play.

[Azz]

Thanks for reminding us all the high was $67k (todays low was $20k - a ~70% pullback from ATH).

Normal investors don’t short anything, they simply don’t invest in them. Shorting makes you a trader, and the associated tax consequences would be stupid for most of us here with large investment portfolios. Other reasons for not shorting: Shorting exposes you to unlimited losses as there is no upside cap on a value, whereas being long has a known maximum downside exposure, any experienced investor knows shorting is far riskier than being long. Another reason is timing is impossible to predict, you can be right but still lose if you get timing wrong, which is especially risky with highly volatile speculative assets. Also shorting something means you pay for the cost to borrow the asset you are shorting, or the premium on puts if you use that tool. Also, the ability to short is thankfully limited through NZ broking platforms, and next to non-existent for anything crypto-related (thankfully). The reason to avoid shorting anything (not just crypto) are long.

Most here were investing through previous bubbles (particularly the 2000 dot com bubble) and know exactly the risks. It was easy to see in 2000 that there were thousands of nonsense companies with ridiculous valuations and it would all end in tears - but any attempt to short by bearish traders before the final crash was usually a fools errand and you ended up with your faced ripped off as stupid valuations increased to insane valuations and beyond - it’s simply impossible to know how stupid people will get in a FOMO environment. It’s both sad and amusing to hear all the exact same weak arguments being made by young people as to why crypto is a good investment as that blurted out over 20 years ago about dot com companies. A technology is not the same as a sound business model. Unfortunately the only way most of these people will learn is from the experience of losing there money.

Another example why shorting is a bad idea, even when you are right: I have some acquaintances that successfully identified a lot of the bubble stocks in the most recent market run up (most of the SPAC names etc) - however even though they were completely right in the companies they identified as going to collapse in value (which they all now have), they lost a lot of money attempting to short them on multiple attempts, as the companies continued to move higher. Repeating for emphasis: with shorting you not only have to be correct in picking which assets are overvalued, but also when the downward correction will happen (which is essentially impossible to predict accurately).

Its much easier to simply identify good investments and buy and hold. Plus, if you are wrong in your judgement or timing the maximum you can lose is what you invested (as opposed to the unlimited exposure of shorting)

When it come to shorting, the best and safest move for the sensible investor is simply not to play.

That's actually the first thing you've written that contains a semblance of thoughtfulness. I don't agree that one should never short, but you make some good points.

However:

"you can be right [on your short] but..."

The main reason you're not gonna short Bitcoin is because you're wrong. And in your heart, who knows, but I suspect you know this.

I'm very happy with the Bitcoin situation through this massive stock market crash. You may not be aware, but some stocks are down 80% or more. Bitcoin is putting in a floor at US$20k which not too long ago was an actual all time high. And along the way, most of the "crypto" garbage is getting destroyed.

Oh and I was invested through the dot com crash. Actual US stocks. So don't preach to me about your great wisdom when you have no clue about who you're dealing with.

[Azz]

Crypto topics have their own forum where you should move this discussion .

Nonsense. This thread is about the bear market - which includes crypto.

[couta1]

Doesn't appear Bitcoin would have been an any worse investment than the A2 Milk company, I'd be down the same amount but I reckon i have more confidence that Bitcoin will retain its former highs than A2, sounds like stocks are just as much of a gamble after all. Lol

[Azz]

I mined 0.06 bitcoins back in early 2013 when Bloomberg published a story where Jamie Dimon was asked about it. I thought a digital currency was a novel idea but basically lost interest because it was never widely adopted for real-world purchases. In no way on my part did I ever think people would turn it into a speculative frenzy.

I don't pretend to be an expert in any way but maybe it's like BetaMax? It's a good proof-of-concept and might one day lead to something useful for society.

It's an amazing concept, but it's been real for a while now. Just read up on how it works.

[Balance]

Doesn't appear Bitcoin would have been an any worse investment than the A2 Milk company, I'd be down the same amount but I reckon i have more confidence that Bitcoin will retain its former highs than A2, sounds like stocks are just as much of a gamble after all. Lol

Since you brought it up - only because you stubbornly refused to heed the numerous warnings about A2M.

I am waiting for A2M to hit $2.50 and then, it's BUY BUY BUY!

[Azz]

Doesn't appear Bitcoin would have been an any worse investment than the A2 Milk company, I'd be down the same amount but I reckon i have more confidence that Bitcoin will retain its former highs than A2, sounds like stocks are just as much of a gamble after all. Lol

Exactly .

[Azz]

............

[couta1]

Since you brought it up - only because you stubbornly refused to heed the numerous warnings about A2M.

I am waiting for A2M to hit $2.50 and then, it's BUY BUY BUY! Its far more complicated than that when your held the size holding i did at the time ( Most will never find themselves in that position including you so making your sort of comments are rather condescending) My point stands A2 is no better than Bitcoin, actually worse IMO.

[Balance]

Its far more complicated than that when your held the size holding i did at the time ( Most will never find themselves in that position including you so making your sort of comments are rather condescending) My point stands A2 is no better than Bitcoin, actually worse IMO.

A2M has been very very very good for me.

And will be again in the future.

No apologies from me, couta1, for bringing it up - you alone chose to ignore the numerous warning signs in a very very liquid stock. Well covered too on the ATM
Thread where we were roundly abused by A2M holders for sounding the warnings.

Trust you have learnt your lesson as I did with a few stocks where I blew $xxx,xxx.00

[Azz]

Its far more complicated than that when your held the size holding i did at the time ( Most will never find themselves in that position including you so making your sort of comments are rather condescending) My point stands A2 is no better than Bitcoin, actually worse IMO.

couta1, I'm sorry to hear you had a tough time with A2. We've all been there with stocks (ie, making losses), it's part of the game.

[Azz]

A2M has been very very very good for me.

It's one of the best NZ stocks of all time.

[couta1]

A2M has been very very very good for me.

And will be again in the future.

No apologies from me, couta1 - you chose to ignore the numerous warning signs in a very very liquid stock.

Trust you have learnt your lesson as I did with a few stocks where I blew $xxx,xxx.00 A2 has had over 11 billion wiped off its market cap since Aug 2020 so there have been a MUCH larger number of losers than winners including some very reputable big fish like Blackrock, the company was misleading on its commentaries and may yet have to eat some humble pie via the class actions, sure I was stubborn/determined and those traits have served me very well in most of life but I don't tend to listen to advice on a random internet forum anyway, after all even a broken clock is right twice a day, every day.

[couta1]

It's one of the best NZ stocks of all time. It was, its now one of the worst for wealth destruction.

[Azz]

It was, its now one of the worst for wealth destruction.

Sorry, yes, it *was*.

[Balance]

A2 has had over 11 billion wiped off its market cap since Aug 2020 so there have been a MUCH larger number of losers than winners including some very reputable big fish like Blackrock, the company was misleading on its commentaries and may yet have to eat some humble pie via the class actions, sure I was stubborn/determined and those traits have served me very well in most of life but I don't tend to listen to advice on a random internet forum anyway, after all even a broken clock is right twice a day, every day.

When has a broken clock ever told anybody the time - which is what a clock is for.

Dumb analogy imo.

[couta1]

When has a broken clock ever told anybody the time - which is what a clock is for.

Dumb analogy imo. Not dumb at all, just highlights the point that even a broken object can tell the correct time twice each day or perhaps the word show the time would be more Woke and correct for you. Lol

[Balance]

Not dumb at all, just highlights the point that even a broken object can tell the correct time twice each day or perhaps the word show the time would be more Woke and correct for you. Lol

Your broken clock telling the time is why you screwed up big on A2M. Lol.

[couta1]

Your broken clock telling the time is why you screwed up big on A2M. Lol. You can't lose a large sum of money unless you made it to start with and unless you are gifted it you don't make it by chance, I had 7 very successful yrs prior to that in what I belive was skilled investing and trading (Well I was happy with it anyway) failure doesn't define you but giving up does.

[Balance]

You can't lose a large sum of money unless you made it to start with and unless you are gifted it you don't make it by chance, I had 7 very successful yrs prior to that in what I belive was skilled investing and trading (Well I was happy with it anyway) failure doesn't define you but giving up does.

I do not own or use any broken clock so I cannot possibly comment! Lol

[couta1]

I do not own or use any broken clock so I cannot possibly comment! Lol Some on here would disagree with you reading the off market political threads. Whoops I was just reminded by a respectable wee bird that that should be broken record player. Lol

[porkandpuha]

No apologies from me, couta1, for bringing it up - you alone chose to ignore the numerous warning signs in a very very liquid stock. Well covered too on the ATM
Thread where we were roundly abused by A2M holders for sounding the warnings.


Nah. You guys weren't abused for sounding the warnings. You were abused because of the way you went about it and the delivery. You were... well, Couta used a much more polite C word in #199 than I would have used, and probably did use at the time.

[Baa_Baa]

Nah. You guys weren't abused for sounding the warnings. You were abused because of the way you went about it and the delivery. You were... well, Couta used a much more polite C word in #199 than I would have used, and probably did use at the time.

It's not about what is said, it's about how it is said. Discussion groups like this one tend towards hyperbole and ego with binary yes or no outcomes, which isn't helpful for group think.

A successful company with no debt, large cash holdings, solid balance sheet, sustained revenue and profit are caned in the market because of perceived misleading comms, well fair enough. Lets see that take its course.

There's plenty of risks as well in their target and predominant market. A veritable feast of reasons why someone shouldn't invest. But there are some good things, which you won't hear here anymore because the vocal few detractors drown out the minority few proponents. We all have our risk/rewards thresholds, just that we don't make that known openly except for some random number plucked from nowhere that some might suggest they will buy at.

But the fact that the market captivates the reality and devalues the company, typically to well below their worth, then the same naysayers pounce on the opportunity and later say in your face they double or triple bag their entry.

People confuse discussion group chatter with market sentiment and company viability, it's a confusing mix but we all decide when or if it's worth investing in, or not. No one makes our investment decisions but ourselves, it pays to filter the noise as little of it really helps in the long run.

[Balance]

Nah. You guys weren't abused for sounding the warnings. You were abused because of the way you went about it and the delivery. You were... well, Couta used a much more polite C word in #199 than I would have used, and probably did use at the time.

Very very very satisfying.

[Waltzing]

Dow futures down. Bounce did not last long and now where to from here.

This market is really starting to look like a stormy stormy sea.

Bond vol in europe canary in the coal mine?

This market could really start to get ugly soon.

[couta1]

Dow futures down. Bounce did not last long and now where to from here.

This market is really starting to look like a stormy stormy sea.

Bond vol in europe canary in the coal mine?

This market could really start to get ugly soon. Are you trying to get the jump on bull for being the first to proclaim the days gloom n doom tomorrow? You should start writing poetry cause I think you could be really good at it.

[causecelebre]

Personally I think couta1 has done very well. Anyone can make money in a good market. Just look at the last couple of years. Its how you handle the losses that matter.

[JBmurc]

What really pisses me off During the COVID FEAR campaign the Central banks+ Govts went Bat**** crazy creating spending trillions ... on locking down people from their businesses and community .dropping Interest rates to 400yr+ lows .. running utter BS storylines right out of 1984.. Group think ...Ministry of truth..trust no one but your Govt and Big Phama...

Now we have the Mess from this insane spurge that didn't go into Key Infrastructure.... but wasteful spending ....Billions pumped in select Phama Giants 4x 5x Booster why not they work so well with more kiwis having COVID than not yet 90% coverage !!!!!

And now with record High health issues(wonder whats come from) ??? ....mass inflation caused by lockdowns + easy cheap money policy. supply chain distraction ... we are told we NOW need to have lending costs double then triple with a few short years to help us from inflation they caused from their headless chooks running the show policy !!! ....

Tell us it's all those dam Russians fault we have expensive Energy while we happily shut down refiners and then poo poo O&G exploration ?? and close NZ mining while importing the same product from thousands of Kms away!!

We simply have actors running the show for special interest groups made up of MEGA rich Elite groups that believe the woke madness pumped out everytime they want to scare the masses into line >>>>>>>>

"We are all going to die etc if we don't do this"!!!! FEAR driven control of the masses ...latest one is economic crash it replaced ...European WW3 ...that replaced COVID we are all going die ..so on and so on ....

[Azz]

Dow futures down.

Doesn't look good...

[GOAT]

Nah. You guys weren't abused for sounding the warnings. You were abused because of the way you went about it and the delivery. You were... well, Couta used a much more polite C word in #199 than I would have used, and probably did use at the time.

"Open rebuke is better than love carefully concealed."

I often lurk on these forums, and I must admit that I like to hear from Balance as he is quite level-headed. I remember back in 2020 (I think late March or early April) he was warning everyone not to fight the fed (printing of dollars) and as it turned out.. he was absolutely spot on, markets went up like crazy.

Beagle is another poster I like to hear from as he is quite astute in his reasoning.

I believe that having an open mind on the market, changing ones opinion, and adapting to market conditions is healthy. I enjoy seeing people disagree with each others opinions/views as it helps me to view all perspectives.

[percy]

Nah. You guys weren't abused for sounding the warnings. You were abused because of the way you went about it and the delivery. You were... well, Couta used a much more polite C word in #199 than I would have used, and probably did use at the time.

So very true.
Far too many rude and abusive posts.
These sort of posts have taken Sharetrader to the point a number of excellent intelligent posters have either left the site, or given up posting.
Other posters such as myself feel ST is not a share discussion site to be a proud member of.

[Balance]

So very true.
Far too many rude and abusive posts.
These sort of posts have taken Sharetrader to the point a number of excellent intelligent posters have either left the site, or given up posting.
Other posters such as myself feel ST is not a share discussion site to be a proud member of.

Not our fault you choose to defend Simon Whimp of DGL - the 50+ old who chases after 21 year olds and makes abhorrent comments about Nadia Lim.

You are welcome to Simon Whimp - just don't expect the rest of us to. Birds of a feather flock together so you should ponder whether Simon Whimp is the sort of character you should be defending.

As for porkandpuha, have a look at his postings on ATM and PX1 to see who has been abusive towards other posters - simply because he fell in love with such stocks, was warned not to and chose to suck the kumara. You reap what you sow.

Need to call a spade a spade.

[Rawz]

ST is still excellent Percy. My investment knowledge/skills rapidly increased when I found this site.

Thanks to the good and bad guys (lol) on here.

One thing I have noticed is a the grumpy, snippy, attacking etc posts have increased more as the markets have gone down. No surprises I guess.

There are always hundreds of guests viewing this website- a lot of them will be novice investors. This website will be helping them learn without doubt. Posters should feel proud to help these people.

[percy]

Not our fault you choose to defend Simon Whimp of DGL - the 50+ old who chases after 21 year olds and makes abhorrent comments about Nadia Lim.

You are welcome to Simon Whimp - just don't expect the rest of us to. Birds of a feather flock together so you should ponder whether Simon Whimp is the sort of character you should be defending.

As for porkandpuha, have a look at his postings on ATM and PX1 to see who has been abusive towards other posters - simply because he fell in love with such stocks, was warned not to and chose to suck the kumara. You reap what you sow.

Need to call a spade a spade.

Exactly what drives ST to new lows.
Vile as expected from you.

[Balance]

Exactly what drives ST to new lows.
Vile as expected from you.

Vile?

Defending Simon Whimp?

[couta1]

Not our fault you choose to defend Simon Whimp of DGL - the 50+ old who chases after 21 year olds and makes abhorrent comments about Nadia Lim.

You are welcome to Simon Whimp - just don't expect the rest of us to. Birds of a feather flock together so you should ponder whether Simon Whimp is the sort of character you should be defending.

As for porkandpuha, have a look at his postings on ATM and PX1 to see who has been abusive towards other posters - simply because he fell in love with such stocks, was warned not to and chose to suck the kumara. You reap what you sow.

Need to call a spade a spade. You know for someone that hates Jacinda with a passion your beginning to sound very Woke but with a splash of nastiness, remember be kind.

[Balance]

You know for someone that hates Jacinda with a passion your beginning to sound very Woke but with a splash of nastiness, remember be kind.

Says defender of Simon Whimp #2 - couta1.

Anyway, trust you & Percy (birds of a feather) enjoy this :

An Ode for .. Simon Whimp

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/an-ode-for-simon-henry

[couta1]

Says defender of Simon Whimp #2 - couta1.

Anyway, trust you & Percy (birds of a feather) enjoy this :

An Ode for .. Simon Whimp

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/an-ode-for-simon-henry That whole story didn't really interest me but you seem to have really got your fluffy feathers in a right royal twist over it, haven't you got more important things to concentrate on?

[Balance]

That whole story didn't really interest me but you seem to have really got your fluffy feathers in a right royal twist over it, haven't you got more important things to concentrate on?

Go back to ATM?

[couta1]

Go back to ATM? This sort of post shows who you really are as a person, pretty ugly.

[Balance]

This sort of post shows who you really are as a person, pretty ugly.

What's wrong with discussing ATM? Plenty of upside there imo when the stock bottoms out but if you do not want to discuss it, that's fine.

[Balance]

Back to the Bear Market :

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/how-to/how-to-invest-during-a-bear-market/articleshow/92195767.cms

History shows that the stock market has always recovered from declines in the past. If you put money in stocks, over 10 years you would have been down only 6% of the time. Over 20-year periods, the market has never been down. There could always be a first time, of course, and the experience of protracted losses can be excruciating. That’s why it is important to hold high-quality bonds or other safe investments, and to be sure that you have put aside money for emergencies.

[na2m1]

Back to the Bear Market :

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/how-to/how-to-invest-during-a-bear-market/articleshow/92195767.cms

History shows that the stock market has always recovered from declines in the past. If you put money in stocks, over 10 years you would have been down only 6% of the time. Over 20-year periods, the market has never been down. There could always be a first time, of course, and the experience of protracted losses can be excruciating. That’s why it is important to hold high-quality bonds or other safe investments, and to be sure that you have put aside money for emergencies.


Stop arguing. Go to private message or reddit for that. Anyways I agree with Balance post. Keep on investing and you will come out stronger

[Balance]

Some wise advice from Warren Buffett on bear markets :

“The most common cause of low prices is pessimism — sometimes pervasive, sometimes specific to a company or industry. We want to do business in such an environment, not because we like pessimism but because we like the prices it produces. It’s optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer.”

“Smile when you read a headline that says, ‘Investors lose as market falls’. Edit it in your mind to ‘Disinvestors lose as market falls — but investors gain’. Though writers often forget this truism, there is a buyer for every seller and what hurts one necessarily helps the other.”

“I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”

[Ferg]

Balance - some days or weeks ago you posted you had not yet seen "peak capitulation" from retail investors. Whilst we are seeing reporters like Katie whatshername breathlessly shouting at the camera on TV1 news that the end is nigh....have we see actually retail capitulation yet?

[Balance]

Balance - some days or weeks ago you posted you had not yet seen "peak capitulation" from retail investors. Whilst we are seeing reporters like Katie whatshername breathlessly shouting at the camera on TV1 news that the end is nigh....have we see actually retail capitulation yet?

Long way from capitulation.

Watch Bitcoin.

[Rawz]

Long way from capitulation.

Watch Bitcoin.

Watch Bitcoin for what sign? If bitcoin TA turns positive does that single retail investors confidence in markets again?

[Balance]

Watch Bitcoin for what sign? If bitcoin TA turns positive does that single retail investors confidence in markets again?

Bitcoin & the cryptocurrencies represent the ultimate & worse excesses of the financial market hype as far as retail investors are concerned.

When they wholesale sell off their exposure, that’s when retail investors have capitulated in the markets. The collapses with the stablecoins etc are not capitulation - they are collapses beyond the control of retail investors.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

The altcoins are the ones to really watch. The vast majority should have zero value as they were started as jokes or pump/dumps. Still a long ways to go.

[Ferg]

Thanks Balance. I take it we are some way from retail capitulation, for which crypto currencies would be a proxy / indicator. Anecdotally I'm not seeing enough pain out there right now so I suppose I agree. However, given the media attention I would say we are getting close (famous last words?).

On that note......if a few more posters could make comments along the lines of "we will never see $$.cc again" - that might hasten a few SP falls and present good buying opportunities. Thanks in advance!

[JBmurc]

90% of stocks on the SP500 sold off for the 5th time in the last 7days .... since 1928 thats never happened before !! The most overwhelming selling in recent history

Add in the fact Corporate balance sheets have never been better for many companies ..esp Energy yet they were sold off 5.3% overnight ,,,,markets gone Cray cray

[Balance]

Every bear market represents a once in a decade opportunity to buy cheap stocks.

Don’t miss out!

Keep your powder dry and let those who want to panic, panic.

Then, when there’s blood on the streets, close your eyes and scoop the cheap stocks up.

[alokdhir]

Every bear market represents a once in a decade opportunity to buy cheap stocks.

Don’t miss out!

Keep your powder dry and let those who want to panic, panic.

Then, when there’s blood on the streets, close your eyes and scoop the cheap stocks up.

Perfect advise ...Well said mate ...also no need to be too greedy ...yes all can go more down ...but when it fits your investment angle ...Go for it ...Dont miss out

[nztx]

Never waste a beary good opportunity if you see something tasty :)

[nztx]

These sort of times bring home the reality of "Never gamble with any more than you can afford to Lose"


Fortunately a good buffer here .. what's on the table is basically past gains - almost fully free carry

[GOAT]

I think we might see a further drop once people start to shift their Kiwisaver to a conservative/cash fund. This applies to global stocks for 401k also.

[nztx]

I think we might see a further drop once people start to shift their Kiwisaver to a conservative/cash fund. This applies to global stocks for 401k also.


But probably a run too late after losing a large pile .. but just in time to miss an upswing perhaps.. :)

Be quite a few who lost big time in the Covid Dip in 2020 on similar moves & swaps, I would say ..

[Balance]

But probably a run too late after losing a large pile .. but just in time to miss an upswing perhaps.. :)

Be quite a few who lost big time in the Covid Dip in 2020 on similar moves & swaps, I would say ..

Yup …. I know a few.

But they slept better at nights and it’s impossible to put a price on that!

[porkandpuha]

As for porkandpuha, have a look at his postings on ATM and PX1 to see who has been abusive towards other posters - simply because he fell in love with such stocks, was warned not to and chose to suck the kumara. You reap what you sow.

Need to call a spade a spade.

Wrong once again. I held ATM for a downgrade sure. And I continued to lurk the thread as I often do with stocks I follow, formerly owned, or intend to own. No kumara to suck here, still exited A2 in the green.

BUT none of that is relevant to my point which was/is... it doesnt matter whether your messages are good advice, bad advice, noteworthy, correct in hindsight, incorrect in hindsight... at the end of the day, if its delivered like a douchebag, you are still a douchebag. Douchebag with decent advice if you like - I know how you like to self congratulate.

[davflaws]

BUT none of that is relevant to my point which was/is... it doesnt matter whether your messages are good advice, bad advice, noteworthy, correct in hindsight, incorrect in hindsight... at the end of the day, if its delivered like a douchebag, you are still a douchebag. Douchebag with decent advice if you like - I know how you like to self congratulate.

On alternative forums (particularly political ones), Balance's postings are becoming increasingly trollish and I am afraid that is starting to bleed over into NZX.

I suggest you stop feeding him.