Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited

[Charlie]

I cant find a thread for this company ( CHI )
SP seems to be climbing up - 50% this year .
Seems to be steady with not too much fluctuation ,
Any of you invested ?
It seems to be fair value , but has been up to $6 10yrs ago .

[Sideshow Bob]

Still under NZR - NZR - Page 211 (sharetrader.co.nz) (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?468-NZR/page211&highlight=nzr) Probably needs the person who started it, or admin to change the thread name.

Always good to keep under the one same thread - some knowledgable posts there.

[Charlie]

Still under NZR - NZR - Page 211 (sharetrader.co.nz) (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?468-NZR/page211&highlight=nzr) Probably needs the person who started it, or admin to change the thread name.

Always good to keep under the one same thread - some knowledgable posts there.

That makes sense , thanks..

[kizame]

This chart is just beautiful, steadily rising, and they liked the result. Yep nobody on here seems to be watching this none, but looking at the volume in the time I've been in this, lots of others are.

[Sideshow Bob]

............................

[percy]

I added some CHI to my dividend portfolio.
They are to replace the GNE I recently sold.

[Bikeguy]

Thoughts are there will be some news regarding the green hydrogen initiative soon…

[audiav]

In the UK facilities for storage and production of green sustainable aviation fuel is the new concern. Opportunity here?

[percy]

Very bad timing be me.Paid $1.50 a share last week for my holding and $1.49 a share yesterday for the wife's holding.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CHI/423451/409509.pdf

[winner69]

Very bad timing be me.Paid $1.50 a share last week for my holding and $1.49 a share yesterday for the wife's holding.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CHI/423451/409509.pdf

Not like you to get the timing wrong lol …..losing your touch

[percy]

Not like you to get the timing wrong lol …..losing your touch

Worse thing is I bought the wife's yesterday..lol

[Rawz]

CHI has a dividend yield of 10%???

I would have thought it would be around 6% given its a key piece of infrastructure and all that? Or is there concern that tomorrow we wont be needing jet fuel, petrol and diesel?

And so Mobil sell out 10% below today?

whats up?

[Perky]

Winnie and Shayney want to have a chat.
Mobil can read the room and have left

I think that whatsup

[Southern Lad]

The next question is whether Z Energy (Ampol) with 12.67% and BP with 8.34% follow suit?

[ronaldson]

The 53.76m share sell-down is a "relatively" small proportion of Mobil's holding, but perhaps a canary for what is to come from the major players.

[Rawz]

The 53.76m share sell-down is a "relatively" small proportion of Mobil's holding, but perhaps a canary for what is to come from the major players.

Am i reading it wrong? looks to me like they hold 53m and are selling 53 mill via jarden as the underwriter ?

[Joshuatree]

Worse thing is I bought the wife's yesterday..lol
Lost a few cents selling GNE too early.Whats a few cents longer-term though ehh.

[Nor]

Am i reading it wrong? looks to me like they hold 53m and are selling 53 mill via jarden as the underwriter ?

I concur. But last year they sought to or even did increase their stake in the jet fuel supply business. (?) My knowledge based on about 15 seconds googling max.

[ronaldson]

The 53.76m share sell-down is a "relatively" small proportion of Mobil's holding, but perhaps a canary for what is to come from the major players.

Yes, my bad. I should read SPH Notices more carefully! It is a total sell down of Mobil's holding.

[Bikeguy]

Major shareholder is able to sell out complete holding, 50 odd million shares, in one hit and the share price sits relatively still?

[JSwan]

Major shareholder is able to sell out complete holding, 50 odd million shares, in one hit and the share price sits relatively still?

Hopefully Jarden doesn’t start doing a MFB on their 50m shares

[Bikeguy]

Hopefully Jarden doesn’t start doing a MFB on their 50m shares

What is MFB?😅 cheers

[Bikeguy]

What is MFB?😅 cheers

My Food Bag? Apologies

[percy]

Not like you to get the timing wrong lol …..losing your touch

Confirmed this morning in The Press's Sharemarket page..
Of the top 10 gainers........I did not hold any.
Of the top 10 decliners......I hold Five....

[SailorRob]

Confirmed this morning in The Press's Sharemarket page..
Of the top 10 gainers........I did not hold any.
Of the top 10 decliners......I hold Five....


Dude you're paying 5 x revenue for a debt laden dog with thin margins that incinerates every cent of capital invested and has hopeless management.

How are they going to get a return on all this CAPEX?

[percy]

Dude you're paying 5 x revenue for a debt laden dog with thin margins that incinerates every cent of capital invested and has hopeless management.

How are they going to get a return on all this CAPEX?
The new dog is in good company with my other 4 NZX dogs.
I have to admit I have an even larger pack of dogs in Oz...lol.

[SailorRob]

The new dog is in good company with my other 4 NZX dogs.
I have to admit I have an even larger pack of dogs in Oz...lol.


I thought you were a former accountant. Mate have a look at the god damned financial statements.

Just buy BRK.b and enjoy your retirement.

[Rawz]

I thought you were a former accountant. Mate have a look at the god damned financial statements.

Just buy BRK.b and enjoy your retirement.

How do you think BRK will go without Munger? And when the time comes without Buffett?

[percy]

I thought you were a former accountant. Mate have a look at the god damned financial statements.

Just buy BRK.b and enjoy your retirement.

I am enjoying a great retirement,thanks to 56 years of following and investing in the sharemarket..

[SailorRob]

I am enjoying a great retirement,thanks to 56 years of following and investing in the sharemarket..


Well don't ruin it now by doing stupid stuff, if you have any skill or knowledge whatsoever you would not touch this dog with a long pole.

Even with massively sub par returns over 56 years if you save and invest enough you will have done well.

Please, look at the financial statements, look a how much capital they have taken in and what they are doing with it. Look at the revenue and the margins, look at the debt. Look at the management.

You have 60 odd thousand companies you could invest in. Why this??

[SailorRob]

How do you think BRK will go without Munger? And when the time comes without Buffett?

Munger will make no difference at all, he had very little to do with anything over the last 20 years.

Buffett has spent 30 years preparing the company for when he's no longer around, as Munger often said they could have done 3 times as well if they weren't so massively conservative so you might see them push some more float out into equities and maybe they won't get the epic deals that people give as selling to Buffett but NET you won't see the difference or if you do it will be positive.

If the share price drops on his death or stepping down then depending how much it falls it will lead to much higher returns.

[Bikeguy]

Well don't ruin it now by doing stupid stuff, if you have any skill or knowledge whatsoever you would not touch this dog with a long pole.

Even with massively sub par returns over 56 years if you save and invest enough you will have done well.

Please, look at the financial statements, look a how much capital they have taken in and what they are doing with it. Look at the revenue and the margins, look at the debt. Look at the management.

You have 60 odd thousand companies you could invest in. Why this??

You have clearly spent a lot of time assessing this company, thank you….do you have any thoughts on why CHI has seen such a rise in share price over these past couple of years?

[SailorRob]

You have clearly spent a lot of time assessing this company, thank you….do you have any thoughts on why CHI has seen such a rise in share price over these past couple of years?


Yes because it has been 'repriced' as a terminal infrastructure asset that can levy a toll on a pipeline and has an economic moat in that another pipeline cannot be built.

If it didn't have the debt associated with the old business attached to it and the costs of dismantling and cleaning the original site and some decent management then one could see why.

Ultimately people are looking at fuel terminal businesses elsewhere and applying the same logic to this one.

The amount of capital they are still pouring into the business is astounding and the pathway to earning a return on this investment is very far from clear. Just the fire systems that they are installing are costing years and years of best case profits.

Why would Mobil sell down their entire stake?

You can say earnings are whatever, but when you are spending multiples of one years earnings each and every year on capital expenses and borrowing to do it, you have to be certain that in future this investment will generate a return sufficient to satisfy the debt holders and then the equity - that's AFTER also accounting for the maintenance spending on the assets that have been built.


Look at the cash flow statement and pretend you own the entire business...

Look at the half year They are supposedly earning 11 million in 6 months off assets of a near a billion and spending over 30 on 'investments'. It's ludicrous.

Remember to create value they need to generate HIGHER returns on all this capital expense than their cost of funds...

[SailorRob]

Until this business actually exists as a terminal with normal CAPEX and not doing all this growth rubbish and the actual maintenance Capex can be seen and we know the costs of the old site (won't know this for a long time) so everything settles out and we can see steady state contractual earnings and normal expenses and we know then what the debt is and the cost of it etc etc we cannot price the equity.

Too many moving balls and we know how they always move - to the money incinerator.

Percy out of his mind buying the Wife shares of this dog.

Share price can do anything in the short term, for may years this traded at a premium while it lost money hidden by accounting practices that allowed a lot of things to be capitalised that were in fact losing money before they were even built, then boom all yer money is gone.

[Rawz]

debt/debt+equity= 37% for this bad boy. Too close to my 40% rule

[Rawz]

Until this business actually exists as a terminal with normal CAPEX and not doing all this growth rubbish and the actual maintenance Capex can be seen and we know the costs of the old site (won't know this for a long time) so everything settles out and we can see steady state contractual earnings and normal expenses and we know then what the debt is and the cost of it etc etc we cannot price the equity.

Too many moving balls and we know how they always move - to the money incinerator.

I looked at their most recent presentation last night and your post has succinctly summed up exactly what i was thinking.

[SailorRob]

debt/debt+equity= 37% for this bad boy. Too close to my 40% rule


Your rule is absolutely stupid and totally irrelevant.

Prior to the write downs what was the equity 'value' that your rule would have looked at??

Get your head out and start doing some real analysis

Apple debt to equity is too high for your stupid 'rule'

Get with the programme.

[SailorRob]

I looked at their most recent presentation last night and your post has succinctly summed up exactly what i was thinking.


If you were thinking along those lines then you way too smart to use a stupid debt to equity rule.

The equity of the old refinery was one day x and another day y.

Your rule could have killed you.

The stated book value of equity means nothing.

[Rawz]

Your rule is absolutely stupid and totally irrelevant.

Prior to the write downs what was the equity 'value' that your rule would have looked at??

Get your head out and start doing some real analysis

Apple debt to equity is too high for your stupid 'rule'

Get with the programme.

Lol, dont worry about it :cool:

[SailorRob]

Lol, dont worry about it :cool:


Sorry for being harsh but damn this is about more than some arcane accounting ratio that has zero place in the real world.

It's debt to the assets ability to sustainable earn cash returns after all expenses that matters.

Some of the bet companies in the world require no equity.

Some of the worst are loaded with 'equity' that is worth nothing.

[Rawz]

If you were thinking along those lines then you way too smart to use a stupid debt to equity rule.

The equity of the old refinery was one day x and another day y.

Your rule could have killed you.

The stated book value of equity means nothing.

Like you said above there a 66,000 or whatever companies out there for us to invest in. We all have our own screens. Maybe i miss some opportunities but cant be across everything and need to cut out a lot quick

[Bikeguy]

Until this business actually exists as a terminal with normal CAPEX and not doing all this growth rubbish and the actual maintenance Capex can be seen and we know the costs of the old site (won't know this for a long time) so everything settles out and we can see steady state contractual earnings and normal expenses and we know then what the debt is and the cost of it etc etc we cannot price the equity.

Too many moving balls and we know how they always move - to the money incinerator.

Percy out of his mind buying the Wife shares of this dog.

Share price can do anything in the short term, for may years this traded at a premium while it lost money hidden by accounting practices that allowed a lot of things to be capitalised that were in fact losing money before they were even built, then boom all yer money is gone.

Thank you, appreciate you taking the time to share this information.

[SailorRob]

Like you said above there a 66,000 or whatever companies out there for us to invest in. We all have our own screens. Maybe i miss some opportunities but cant be across everything and need to cut out a lot quick


Yep fair enough but you'll cut out all the good stuff, and get all the rubbish. Opposite of what you trying for.

If investing was a simple as running a screener... well damn.

What you should be focused on is the technicalities of IFRS 16 and how that is skewing debt and throwing off returns on capital and equity and all sorts.

A good business that creates value will trade for multiples of book value - the equity is worth way more than the cost to build it. The debt may look large against the book equity.

The bad businesses will have loads of equity that has been misallocated and not correctly depreciated and debt against this origami fortress will look ok.

[SailorRob]

Thank you, appreciate you taking the time to share this information.


I am not making a prediction on the share price - could go much higher who knows. But over the long term the share price will follow the performance of the business and for this one the returns on the capital they are currently 'investing' is paramount.

[Bikeguy]

Yep fair enough but you'll cut out all the good stuff, and get all the rubbish. Opposite of what you trying for.

If investing was a simple as running a screener... well damn.

What you should be focused on is the technicalities of IFRS 16 and how that is skewing debt and throwing off returns on capital and equity and all sorts.

A good business that creates value will trade for multiples of book value - the equity is worth way more than the cost to build it. The debt may look large against the book equity.

The bad businesses will have loads of equity that has been misallocated and not correctly depreciated and debt against this origami fortress will look ok.

I completely feel for all the investors who have been involved with this company long term, a lot of financial loss…
Simply buying in at the right time and enjoying the dividend return of a business that will plod along now it is simplified seems pretty fair too?

[SailorRob]

I completely feel for all the investors who have been involved with this company long term, a lot of financial loss…
Simply buying in at the right time and enjoying the dividend return of a business that will plod along now it is simplified seems pretty fair too?


If that dividend is paid out of cash earnings after all expenses have properly been accounted for and there are no surprise expenses in future.

Currently they are just borrowing to pay the dividend.

Why pay a dividend if you spending many multiples of that dividend on CAPEX?

Often dividends are a total illusion.

[SailorRob]

If you start a pie shop and it's making you 20k a year but you're spending 100k a year on pie making machines it's very hard to say what you're actually earning.

You need to be able to forecast what the earnings on the 100k worth of pie machines will be in future.

You need to be able to get that 100k back at some point.

Otherwise the wife might not be happy with the 20k you brought home but the 100k that's gone.

Accounting says that you haven't spent 100k on pie machines as this is capitalised and in fact you only spent 10k on the pie machine as it will last 10 years blah blah... but the reality is that you have.

Look for businesses where everything is expensed even though it is an asset that lasts a long time.

Choysa tea spent money on a chimpanzee advert in 1996 and expensed it that year, but that investment made a sale in 2023 (to me). Bought out by Unilever which I own.

Look for investment through the income statement.

[percy]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CHI/423638/409719.pdf

[SailorRob]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CHI/423638/409719.pdf

Says it all.

[Bikeguy]

Says it all.

I’m unsure of what you mean? Isn’t it a good thing if ACC is purchasing shares in this company?

[SailorRob]

I’m unsure of what you mean? Isn’t it a good thing if ACC is purchasing shares in this company?


Not at all - a state run organisation that would have difficulty distinguishing its arse from its elbow.

If it was a good thing then we would simply follow what ACC bought.

[Rawz]

ACC very astute. Better record than Berkshire last 10 years

[SailorRob]

ACC very astute. Better record than Berkshire last 10 years


Just been through their annual report.

They have done pretty well in NZ equities over the last 31 years and well overall considering they can't be 100% equities.

But it's the future that counts and the report is full of ESG investing, investing in all kinds of other sickening PC rubbish that I cannot repeat here and then over and above all that the bloody channel infrastructure.

I see a fair bit of private equity 'mark your own homework' stuff too and taxpayer supported stuff, where government basically gives them money for BS investments.

But no question they seem astute in the past.

Not sure how to check your claim vs Berkshire but they have done 2.49% over the last 3 years... So the preceding 7 must have been BLOODY good.

[Bikeguy]

ACC very astute. Better record than Berkshire last 10 years

So ACC did not have a position in CHI prior to accumulating these shares?

For some reason I thought I had read somewhere that they were about environmental investing etc now?

So taking a position in CHI would not really fit? Or is this about where this potential JV with Fortscue is going? Green Hydrogen?

[Sideshow Bob]

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/channel-rated-as-good-investment-as-oil-companies-sell-down?utm_source=7am+Headlines+from+BusinessDesk&utm_campaign=fb8213c4df-7am+Headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_617c2ef34a-fb8213c4df-402467359 (Paywalled)

CHI rated "very good value, particularly relative to other defensive stocks and infrastructure names"

[Bikeguy]

This stock reports tomorrow, any thoughts on what the report card will read like?

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/427061

Highlights
• Full year throughput of 3.4 billion litres, slightly ahead of Envisory’s fuel demand outlook,driven by growing jet fuel demand
• Fixed and variable terminal fees exceeded the minimum contractual take-or-pay level,reflecting strong throughput and higher ancillary charges
• $87.2 million EBITDA from continuing operations and $61.8 million Normalised FreeCash Flow for first full financial year at the top end of August guidance
• Declared an unimputed final ordinary dividend of 6.3 cents per share and a specialdividend of 1.5 cents per share, bringing the total FY23 dividend to 12 cents per sharerepresenting a dividend yield of 8.3%1
• Conversion project is now substantially complete, with firefighting upgrades expected tocomplete this year and bund upgrade work expected to continue until 2027
• Over 100 million litres of private storage now in service, with 45 million litres of jetstorage commissioned in Q3 FY23
• Refreshed strategy released, with a focus on being a world-class energy infrastructurecompany and provider of infrastructure solutions to meet New Zealand’s changing fueland energy needs
• Evaluating brownfield growth opportunities, including Government and additionalcustomer storage requirements, providing increased fuel supply chain resilience for NewZealand.All numbers relate to the twelve months ended 31 December 2023 (FY23) unless stat

[Bikeguy]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/427061

Highlights
• Full year throughput of 3.4 billion litres, slightly ahead of Envisory’s fuel demand outlook,driven by growing jet fuel demand
• Fixed and variable terminal fees exceeded the minimum contractual take-or-pay level,reflecting strong throughput and higher ancillary charges
• $87.2 million EBITDA from continuing operations and $61.8 million Normalised FreeCash Flow for first full financial year at the top end of August guidance
• Declared an unimputed final ordinary dividend of 6.3 cents per share and a specialdividend of 1.5 cents per share, bringing the total FY23 dividend to 12 cents per sharerepresenting a dividend yield of 8.3%1
• Conversion project is now substantially complete, with firefighting upgrades expected tocomplete this year and bund upgrade work expected to continue until 2027
• Over 100 million litres of private storage now in service, with 45 million litres of jetstorage commissioned in Q3 FY23
• Refreshed strategy released, with a focus on being a world-class energy infrastructurecompany and provider of infrastructure solutions to meet New Zealand’s changing fueland energy needs
• Evaluating brownfield growth opportunities, including Government and additionalcustomer storage requirements, providing increased fuel supply chain resilience for NewZealand.All numbers relate to the twelve months ended 31 December 2023 (FY23) unless stat

Pretty decent report card?

[percy]

Pretty decent report card?

Looks to be a sound infrastructure business with great free cash flow.

[alokdhir]

Looks to be a sound infrastructure business with great free cash flow.

It can be great and reliable long term yield play ....what u say mate ?

[Bikeguy]

I wonder where the Green Hydrogen JV situation is at? Been a while since they progressed to next stage of MOU?

[percy]

It can be great and reliable long term yield play ....what u say mate ?

With the strong growth in the jet fuel market underpinning earnings I think it will be.

[Rawz]

Looks pretty good imo. SP up a lot today i reckon

[Sander4709]

Do we know if future divis will carry imputation credits?

[Bikeguy]

Too much selling liquidity around due Jarden exiting Mobil’s shares keeping CHI SP from lifting?

[percy]

Jet volume well up.
Terminal and Pipeline
Throughputs by quarter
(million litres) 2022 2023 2024
Quarter 1
Jet 280 387
Diesel 282 280
Petrol 249 254
Total 811 921
Quarter 2
Jet 146 299
Diesel 275 274
Petrol 257 249
Total 679 821
Quarter 3
Jet 200 314
Diesel 264 261
Petrol 258 263
Total 721 838
Quarter 4
Jet 244 365
Diesel 275 283
Petrol 280 251
Total 799 900