2023 NZX Stock Picking Comp

[peetter]

Hello Everyone,

The rules are the same as 2022.

Rules:
1) Pick FIVE different NZX-listed equity instruments (incl. Smartshares and foreign companies listed in NZ).
- Companies/Funds with a market cap of less than $15m may not be selected.
2) Please also make a SIXTH pick - this will be used as a 'backup preference' should one of your picks delist or merge during the year. It won't cover companies that are placed in liquidation or dissolved.
3) Each pick has an equal weighting. You cannot pick the same option more than once.
4) Picks in by 9am January 4th 2022 (New Zealand time); ie, prior to trading opening.

Returns calculations
1) Each will start with a notional portfolio of $50,000 ($10,000 per pick)
2) Returns will be calculate from the last closing price of 2022 (Dec 30th 2022) to the last closing price of 2023.
3) Its a 'total return' comp, so Dividends will be included - but NOT benefits from imputation credits or other tax-specific benefits.
4) Rights issues are included according to a formula that does not increase capital, but recognises a capital gain/loss on the rights for the year. We may have to do this manually, but will cross that bridge when we come to it.
5) If a selection delists or otherwise somehow dissolves; it will be kept but manually adjusted in your selections to reflect the realised situation resulting from the event causing this. The realisation will then be "re-invested" in your backup preference (see 2), allowing the opportunity to continue participation on a level playing field.
6) Winner is the person who has the largest %age increase.


If there is a stock missing from the picklist on the survey form - let me know and I will sort it quickly!

May the odds be ever in your favour!

peetter

[Grimy]

Thanks Peetter.
My picks might be the same as this year. Can't go much lower. Surely..........

[Rawz]

Just realized I can’t pick HMY. Typical.
It’s going to 2 bagger this year

[nztx]

Prepare for yet another race to the bottom ? ;)

the current one went fast :)

[epower]

Ryman
Summerset
Arvida
Oceania
Radius residential

Property for industry (6th backup)

Thanks and good luck

[Louloubell]

Message for epower: this stockpick is for 2023, not 2025. 🤣

[Rawz]

Ryman
Summerset
Arvida
Oceania
Radius residential

Property for industry (6th backup)

Thanks and good luck

Just pick the best 5 times,
OCA OCA OCA OCA OCA

[777]

Ryman
Summerset
Arvida
Oceania
Radius residential

Property for industry (6th backup)

Thanks and good luck

You need to click on the link in post#1 to enter your picks.

[Jay]

Thanks peetter for running again

[Snoopy]

Just pick the best 5 times,
OCA OCA OCA OCA OCA


I know it is a bit unfashionable to read the rules these days. But if it helps against getting disqualified at the start line, it can be useful.



The rules are the same as 2022.

Rules:
1) Pick FIVE different NZX-listed equity instruments (incl. Smartshares and foreign companies listed in NZ).
- Companies/Funds with a market cap of less than $15m may not be selected.




Returns calculations

6) Winner is the person who has the largest %age increase.


The above rule seems a little unfair. Winner is a great contributor to the forum, no doubt about that! But to give him the gong for 2023 before everyone else has even crossed the start line? That is a little demoralizing for the rest of us ;-P! Otherwise Petter, Merry Christmas, thanks for your efforts this year and keep up the good work.

SNOOPY

[alokdhir]

Maybe thats the only way W69 will participate in this competition ...he needs a head start ? I dont think so but surely Peetter does ...:p

Merry Christmas to all !

[davflaws]

Tena koe Peetter
Thank you for your efforts once again.
Meri kirihimete

[epower]

Message for epower: this stockpick is for 2023, not 2025. 🤣

Haha we will see.

Investing with a 12 month timeframe is riddled with uncertainty anyway so worth taking a punt.

[epower]

You need to click on the link in post#1 to enter your picks.

I see thanks for that, noted and done.

[Bobdn]

Thanks Peetter for organising this again.

I'm goign to stick to my resources/oil tilt:

Ozy; Mzy; ASR; USV; TWH (World shares, NZD hedged). I own all of these.

[Simsee]

IKE GPS, HGH, CEN, AFT, A2 MILK, 6th pick RYM

[Grimy]

IKE GPS, HGH, CEN, AFT, A2 MILK, 6th pick RYM

You need to enter your picks on the link in post#1.

[Simsee]

You need to enter your picks on the link in post#1.
Thank very much will do

[peetter]

2023 competition should be interesting. We have both Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson joining in. I wonder if they know something we don't?

[Waiuta]

Many thanks for running this Peetter and best wishes for an incident free 2023.

[whirly]

I stuffed it up already by selecting SCY instead of SDL which was right beside it. Sorry.

[nztx]

Thanks Peetter for running this again

My selections for 2023 (submitted at the site link) are:

USV ; SPY ; SKL ; ANZ ; SPK and 6th pick WBC

[buy_high_sell_lo]

2023 Submissions

1. SPK
2. SKC
3. HGH
4. MCK
5. THL

6. SUM

Thanks

[justakiwi]

Is there somewhere we can view the list of picks so far/check our own picks?

[SCOTTY]

Is there somewhere we can view the list of picks so far/check our own picks?

Hopefully not as best to do your own research :)

[justakiwi]

You misinterpreted. I have already submitted my picks, but now can't remember them all ;)
Plus it would be interesting to be able to see everyone's picks - not so I can copy them, as clearly I have already made mine.


Hopefully not as best to do your own research :)

[SCOTTY]

You misinterpreted. I have already submitted my picks, but now can't remember them all ;)
Plus it would be interesting to be able to see everyone's picks - not so I can copy them, as clearly I have already made mine.

No offence intended Justakiwi. There must be the doodle note somewhere with your picks on it :)

[clip]

I have forgotten my picks as well, no doodles here

[alokdhir]

I have forgotten my picks as well, no doodles here

After the deadline gone ie after Jan 4th all will be revealed ....

[RupertBear]

I have forgotten my picks as well, no doodles here

yep my picks have left me as well :cool:

[justakiwi]

Ha ha ha ... old age is such a bitch :laugh:

(speaking only for myself and RupertBear as I have no idea how old you are clip ;))



I have forgotten my picks as well, no doodles here


yep my picks have left me as well :cool:

[clip]

Not old enough to claim that excuse :D

[RupertBear]

Not old enough to claim that excuse :D

Geez me neither clip, I dont know what Justakiwi is on about :D

[justakiwi]

:laugh::laugh::laugh:


Geez me neither clip, I dont know what Justakiwi is on about :D

[Entrep]

Arv
tra
hlg
skc
wco

[nztx]

Hey come on .. you elderly, forgetful (or any other excuse) ones only need wait until Peetter publishes
the first of the regular updates to come on here .. who knows there might even be one when the
green light comes on :)

[wizAlvin]

Thank you for an attempt to better 241st place :)

[Simsee]

How do I find where the stock pics shall be and when do they go up? Cheers Allan

[stoploss]

How do I find where the stock pics shall be and when do they go up? Cheers Allan
If it's anything like last year not many will go up :eek2:

[nztx]

If it's anything like last year not many will go up :eek2:


Perhaps we need a new thread for guesses on how the overall market indices are likely to finish ;)

[Grimy]

Just tried to lodge my picks. Got this error message when I clicked on the link;
This form is currently not accepting responses.
Session id: bfd32088-bc0b-4810-bc5d-f2e2695ae351, Correlation id: 3683df01-b143-451b-ae67-f2f4b257818c

[777]

Just tried to lodge my picks. Got this error message when I clicked on the link;
This form is currently not accepting responses.
Session id: bfd32088-bc0b-4810-bc5d-f2e2695ae351, Correlation id: 3683df01-b143-451b-ae67-f2f4b257818c

Rules on first page may explain it.
4) Picks in by 9am January 4th 2022 (New Zealand time); ie, prior to trading opening.

[Grimy]

That'll be it! Thought it was next Monday.
At least my lack of stock picking ability will be hidden till next year.
Good luck to all players.

[peetter]

I re-opened the submissions till Monday morning. Last year we got fair ammount of people submissions a bit late as well and I'm hping we can get over 200.

[Grimy]

Thanks Peetter. Appreciate it. I must get out of holiday mode!

[moimoi]

AIA
RAK
RBD
SKC
SKT

Thank you. GLTA.

[777]

AIA
RAK
RBD
SKC
SKT

Thank you. GLTA.


Refer to post #1 for entry procedure.

[GTM 3442]

Just for the record, the brokers 2023 picks were:

Jarden
IFT
CEN
THL
PEB
DGL

Forsyth Barr
OCA
THL
IFT
VSL
SPK

Hobson Wealth
AIA
CEN
EBO
FBU
VCT

MSL capital Markets
aAFT
AIR
ARV
MCY
NZL

Hamilton Hindin Greene
IFT
NZX
IPL
GNE
AIA

Craigs Investment Partners
CNU
EBO
MEL
SPK
THL

I think I got this from the ODT or NZH, can't remember which

[Supersonic_Steve]

Thanks; CEN, IFT, and SPK were three of my five picks so glad they’re fairly commonly picked amongst brokers!


Just for the record, the brokers 2023 picks were:

Jarden
IFT
CEN
THL
PEB
DGL

Forsyth Barr
OCA
THL
IFT
VSL
SPK

Hobson Wealth
AIA
CEN
EBO
FBU
VCT

MSL capital Markets
aAFT
AIR
ARV
MCY
NZL

Hamilton Hindin Greene
IFT
NZX
IPL
GNE
AIA

Craigs Investment Partners
CNU
EBO
MEL
SPK
THL

I think I got this from the ODT or NZH, can't remember which

[Ggcc]

Just for the record, the brokers 2023 picks were:

Jarden
IFT
CEN
THL
PEB
DGL

Forsyth Barr
OCA
THL
IFT
VSL
SPK

Hobson Wealth
AIA
CEN
EBO
FBU
VCT

MSL capital Markets
aAFT
AIR
ARV
MCY
NZL

Hamilton Hindin Greene
IFT
NZX
IPL
GNE
AIA

Craigs Investment Partners
CNU
EBO
MEL
SPK
THL

I think I got this from the ODT or NZH, can't remember which

None have got TSK or SPY lol?

[Charlie]

I cant seem to see a link to the site ?

[peetter]

Just for the record, the brokers 2023 picks were:

Jarden
IFT
CEN
THL
PEB
DGL

Forsyth Barr
OCA
THL
IFT
VSL
SPK

Hobson Wealth
AIA
CEN
EBO
FBU
VCT

MSL capital Markets
aAFT
AIR
ARV
MCY
NZL

Hamilton Hindin Greene
IFT
NZX
IPL
GNE
AIA

Craigs Investment Partners
CNU
EBO
MEL
SPK
THL

I think I got this from the ODT or NZH, can't remember which

Thanks, that will save me some time :).

[peetter]

I cant seem to see a link to the site ?

Entries are closed. I'll be posting first progress link during weekend.

[causecelebre]

I entered the first 3 rules to ChatGPT and here is the AI's picks for the year


A2 Milk Company Limited (ATM)
Fletcher Building Limited (FBU)
Mercury NZ Limited (MCY)
Spark New Zealand Limited (SPK)
The Warehouse Group Limited (WHS)
Air New Zealand Limited (AIZ)

[Charlie]

Entries are closed. I'll be posting first progress link during weekend.
Thanks, thats what i thought i was missing .
Thankyou for setting it all up.

[peetter]

I entered the first 3 rules to ChatGPT and here is the AI's picks for the year


A2 Milk Company Limited (ATM)
Fletcher Building Limited (FBU)
Mercury NZ Limited (MCY)
Spark New Zealand Limited (SPK)
The Warehouse Group Limited (WHS)
Air New Zealand Limited (AIZ)

I'll add this one. Great idea!

[thegreatestben]

Excellent, I'm keen to see how the bot fares :)

[causecelebre]

I'll add this one. Great idea!

Nice one. I'll follow its progress keenly....should be fun!

[peetter]

Hi All,

Welcome to year 2023! Is this a year of gains? First couple of weeks would suggest it just might be :).


https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjmWp...rnsUa?e=ogV4MU (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjmWpAOfMqU5rnsUa?e=ogV4MU)


Top 10 for week closing on 20/01/2023:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Paint it Black
NTL
FPH
ASR
IFT
MFT

63285.12051
126.57%


2
Paul jc
TSK
NTL
OCA
GEN
PHL

62535.50543
125.07%


3
aquaman
EVO
OCA
TWR
NTL
CBD

62036.12479
124.07%


4
Charlie
AIR
CHI
NTL
MFT
RYM

61871.9351
123.74%


5
MCTOSSA
SKT
NTL
WCO
RAK
GXH

60691.40417
121.38%


6
Smithy02
CEN
NTL
PHL
HGH
IFT

60519.41152
121.04%


7
clip
NTL
TRU
CNU
ANZ
BPG

60011.12003
120.02%


8
wizAlvin
SVR
RBD
MEE
MMH
NGB

55667.06129
111.33%


9
Fiordland Moose Guest
SPY
THL
PPH
GNE
SKC

55033.87406
110.07%


10
freebee
FBU
HGH
OCA
SPY
SKT

55028.03568
110.06%

[winner69]

Should NTL with its low market cap be included in entries?

Asking for a friend (and it’s not Fiordland Moose lol)

[Paint it Black]

Should NTL with its low market cap be included in entries?

Asking for a friend (and it’s not Fiordland Moose lol)

Of course! $12.8m today ain't bad.

[winner69]

Of course! $12.8m today ain't bad.

Pretty good

But my friend says the rules said market cap >$15m

[alokdhir]

Should NTL with its low market cap be included in entries?

Asking for a friend (and it’s not Fiordland Moose lol)

I am with u mate ...anything below $ 100 Mil market cap is just paper fun ...need have realistic market/vol to make it fairer to all ....

[Paint it Black]

Pretty good

But my friend says the rules said market cap >$15m

The rules say 'may' not be selected. Who knows it may soon be over $15m. Too late to change anyway after being admitted I suggest.

[winner69]

And my friend said he would have picked NTL as well but but didn’t because of its market cap <$15m

[percy]

I am with u mate ...anything below $ 100 Mil market cap is just paper fun ...need have realistic market/vol to make it fairer to all ....

Totally disagree.
The most fun is in companies below $100mil market cap.
Any of us could have chosen NTL had we wished.
In my wifes picks I put in ALF mc $21mil, and GEN mc $16mil.

ps I think she is well positioned.

[winner69]

Hi All,

Welcome to year 2023! Is this a year of gains? First couple of weeks would suggest it just might be :).


https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjmWp...rnsUa?e=ogV4MU (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjmWpAOfMqU5rnsUa?e=ogV4MU)


Top 10 for week closing on 20/01/2023:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Paint it Black
NTL
FPH
ASR
IFT
MFT

63285.12051
126.57%


2
Paul jc
TSK
NTL
OCA
GEN
PHL

62535.50543
125.07%


3
aquaman
EVO
OCA
TWR
NTL
CBD

62036.12479
124.07%


4
Charlie
AIR
CHI
NTL
MFT
RYM

61871.9351
123.74%


5
MCTOSSA
SKT
NTL
WCO
RAK
GXH

60691.40417
121.38%


6
Smithy02
CEN
NTL
PHL
HGH
IFT

60519.41152
121.04%


7
clip
NTL
TRU
CNU
ANZ
BPG

60011.12003
120.02%


8
wizAlvin
SVR
RBD
MEE
MMH
NGB

55667.06129
111.33%


9
Fiordland Moose Guest
SPY
THL
PPH
GNE
SKC

55033.87406
110.07%


10
freebee
FBU
HGH
OCA
SPY
SKT

55028.03568
110.06%



Brought to top of thread in case people miss it

[Paint it Black]

I am with u mate ...anything below $ 100 Mil market cap is just paper fun ...need have realistic market/vol to make it fairer to all ....

Disagree! Picking winners in the low cap stocks can be very lucrative, Let's have some fun!

[alokdhir]

Ok guys ...have fun ...:D

[nztx]

So 7 out of top 10 all riding with bets on NTL ? ;)

and one further riding with MEE ? ;)

[alokdhir]

So 7 out of top 10 all riding with bets on NTL ? ;)

Thats called FUN as per them ...apples vs lemons ...:p

PS : At present down 25% ...market cap below $ 10 mil ...w69 can easily take it over ...:t_up:

[Bobdn]

Thankfully everyone submitted a backup share so NTL can just be removed. Um... right?

[winner69]

Disagree! Picking winners in the low cap stocks can be very lucrative, Let's have some fun!


And these competitions you often need penny stocks to do well …PHL could do it for a few

[Paint it Black]

Thankfully everyone submitted a backup share so NTL can just be removed. Um... right?

Wrong. As in the rules the back up is there in case a company delists or merges. Anyway now NTL has just dropped to 0.3c some people's concerns about the NTL threat to their picks may have abated.

[nztx]

From the opening posting of 18.12.2022:

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?12544-2023-NZX-Stock-Picking-Comp


Hello Everyone,

The rules are the same as 2022.

Rules:

1) Pick FIVE different NZX-listed equity instruments (incl. Smartshares and foreign companies listed in NZ).
- Companies/Funds with a market cap of less than $15m may not be selected.


NTL currently shows Market Cap on NZX site of $9594 K on 0.003/0.004 cps SP

At the beginning of the year the SP was lower $0.002 (28.12.22 - 08.01.23)

https://www.nzx.com/instruments/NTL

It looks to me that that there might be a number of invalid entries which have picked NTL ;
or alternatively entries which included an invalid selection as one of their 5/6 picks ;
when it seems NTL didn't qualify as a valid pick under the rules ?? ;)

Perhaps Peetter might like to look into this based on the 2022/23 Rules and advise on how he
will be dealing with this ?

[Scroogeus]

Hi, it’s probably my fault I had RYM on my picks I thought, but have MPG showing in my picks, don’t want to make your life harder, but just in case, it’s a easy fix , but will go with the flow.
64th Scroogeus,

[Muse]

Should NTL with its low market cap be included in entries?

Asking for a friend (and it’s not Fiordland Moose lol)

I'm not agitating for change!

but now that you mention it $15m was the minimum rule and if NTL below $15m shouldn't be allowed! those are dem rules

lol

[Muse]

From the opening posting of 18.12.2022:

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?12544-2023-NZX-Stock-Picking-Comp




NTL currently shows Market Cap on NZX site of $9594 K on 0.003/0.004 cps SP

At the beginning of the year the SP was lower $0.002 (28.12.22 - 08.01.23)

https://www.nzx.com/instruments/NTL

It looks to me that that there might be a number of invalid entries which have picked NTL ;
or alternatively entries which included an invalid selection as one of their 5/6 picks ;
when it seems NTL didn't qualify as a valid pick under the rules ?? ;)

Perhaps Peetter might like to look into this based on the 2022/23 Rules and advise on how he
will be dealing with this ?

Make their nominal $10 grand pro rata across 4 picks in stead of 5, leaving the backup choice. Or include the backup choice and have no back up (with any liquidity event held at its final value). wouldn't advocate getting to choose a new choice as they could cherry pick (IE, all pick smartpay!)

agree with percy though - lots of fun in that 15m to 100m bracket.

[Paint it Black]

From the opening posting of 18.12.2022:

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?12544-2023-NZX-Stock-Picking-Comp




NTL currently shows Market Cap on NZX site of $9594 K on 0.003/0.004 cps SP

At the beginning of the year the SP was lower $0.002 (28.12.22 - 08.01.23)

https://www.nzx.com/instruments/NTL

It looks to me that that there might be a number of invalid entries which have picked NTL ;
or alternatively entries which included an invalid section as one of their 5/6 picks ;
when it seems NTL didn't qualify as a pick under the rules ?? ;)

Perhaps Peetter might like to look into this based on the 2022/23 Rules and advise on how he
will be dealing with this ?

You are unfairly drawing someone, who has volunteered their time into running the competition, into a controversy of your (and others) making. Perhaps you would like to run it next year? NTL has been part of this competition for many years and some astute punters now see it under new management has having a big upside. So good on Peetter for accepting the selection by some. Need to remember it is a just fun game - so let's move on and not stress Peetter..

[nztx]

Make their nominal $10 grand pro rata across 4 picks in stead of 5, leaving the backup choice. Or include the backup choice and have no back up (with any liquidity event held at its final value). wouldn't advocate getting to choose a new choice as they could cherry pick (IE, all pick smartpay!)

agree with percy though - lots of fun in that 15m to 100m bracket.


Yes agree with your points - Moose..


MEE looks like another sub $15m Market Cap at beginning of 2023 year too (@ 0.009/0.01 )

[nztx]

You are unfairly drawing someone, who has volunteered their time into running the competition, into a controversy of your (and others) making. Perhaps you would like to run it next year? NTL has been part of this competition for many years and some astute punters now see it under new management has having a big upside. So good on Peetter for accepting the selection by some. Need to remember it is a just fun game - so let's move on and not stress Peetter..


but rules are rules are rules - you put entries in based on those rules which you agree to comply with.

Don't point the finger at me - when those with invalid picks did so in contravention of what
Peetter has laid forth as being the rules for 2023 competition.

If picks dont comply with rules set down, then the Competition Convener
may in their complete discretion look at what they believe is fair in the circumstances.

Had the invalid picks been picked up earlier, then the entry would have had to see a
valid qualifying ticker in place of NTL.

[bull....]

i wanted to pick ntl cause as i said on black monday thread gold da one , but i couldnt

[peetter]

Damned I hoped nobody will notice :D. I haven't removed under $15mil cap companies from the picks in competition form. So because it was my mistake, I decided to let the picks stand as they are.

[Rawz]

who kicked off all this gibberish today?

[nztx]

who kicked off all this gibberish today?


Leave the Convenor alone Rawz - he has deliberated and come back with his decision ;)

[winner69]

who kicked off all this gibberish today?

Was just asking for a friend Rawz

My friend says peeter right in letting things stay as they are …even though she would have picked them

it’s only a game she says so just carry on as is

And she’s deeply sorry she bought the issue up ……but knows deep down she’s really in the top ten

[Muse]

Damned I hoped nobody will notice :D. I haven't removed under $15mil cap companies from the picks in competition form. So because it was my mistake, I decided to let the picks stand as they are.

firm but fair

though it still sucks...a movement in the NTL shareprice in the magnitude of 0.001 has the ability to swing the entire competition which is why the brokers tossed ultra micro caps from their comp

[nztx]

firm but fair

though it still sucks...a movement in the NTL shareprice in the magnitude of 0.001 has the ability to swing the entire competition which is why the brokers tossed ultra micro caps from their comp


but on the other side ,, prospect of a fairly resounding paper Loss too when 0.003 becomes 0.002 with NTL
and similarly movements in MEE SP for the 8th runner on the ladder which looks sub $15M Cap

But for these small Caps - other tickers will be likely working hard to manage even a 10-20% gain in current economic times (if not be sailing backwards) So that also needs considering


Results of 2022 Competition should point to the sensitivity of the market, low level of any gains / if not red ink and forward looking on economic conditions now confirmed to be present

[Rawz]

Look, lets be real here. the biggest travesty is that we cannot select HMY. Probably going to 3x this year back to its fair value :(

[nztx]

Look, lets be real here. the biggest travesty is that we cannot select HMY. Probably going to 3x this year back to its fair value :(


Agreed .. my favourite penny and multibagger candidate that I was hoping would do an NZX listing in time was unavailable too .. :)

[Bobdn]

Couldn't understand why I was at 47 and not in top 15 or so...then saw NTL. Oh well.

Yes gold, oil, industrial metals - it's where its at the moment. But things may change...hope not.

[Snoopy]

firm but fair

though it still sucks...a movement in the NTL shareprice in the magnitude of 0.001 has the ability to swing the entire competition which is why the brokers tossed ultra micro caps from their comp



but on the other side ,, prospect of a fairly resounding paper Loss too when 0.003 becomes 0.002 with NTL
and similarly movements in MEE SP for the 8th runner on the ladder which looks sub $15M Cap


There are around 250 entries. That means however good a share picker you think you are, there will be some outsider, likely driven by small caps which exhibit extreme volatility that will 'luck in' with their combination selection. Thus your best bet is to be that outsider!. Pick 5 small caps with the largest magnitude volatility history that you can. Your 'combo 5' might go down the toilet. But then again, you might get lucky. If one or two end up as multi-baggers, then that might be enough to propel you to the top of the class! And because it is only a competition, there is zero risk to your real wealth. So what are you waiting for? Pick the 'wild 5' and go for it!

Except, .......such a strategy of picking 5 small cap potential multi-baggers would be a sign of insanity in the real investment world. Such a strategy doesn't reflect skill. It just becomes luck, picking 5 'horses' with no form and no pedigree. At that point a share picking contest filled with such entries becomes meaningless. You might as well run the competition with all competitors just selecting lotto numbers, tot up the wins each week, and be done with it.

SNOOPY

[alokdhir]

There are around 250 entries. That means however good a share picker you think you are, there will be some outsider, likely driven by small caps which exhibit extreme volatility that will 'luck in' with their combination selection. Thus your best bet is to be that outsider!. Pick 5 small caps with the largest magnitude volatility history that you can. Your 'combo 5' might go down the toilet. But then again, you might get lucky. If one or two end up as multi-baggers, then that might be enough to propel you to the top of the class! And because it is only a competition, there is zero risk to your real wealth. So what are you waiting for? Pick the 'wild 5' and go for it!

Except, .......such a strategy of picking 5 small cap potential multi-baggers would be a sign of insanity in the real investment world. Such a strategy doesn't reflect skill. It just becomes luck, picking 5 'horses' with no form and no pedigree. At that point a share picking contest filled with such entries becomes meaningless. You might as well run the competition with all competitors just selecting lotto numbers, tot up the wins each week, and be done with it.

SNOOPY

Thats what I was trying to say but then all said they disagree ...they wanted to have fun with imaginary money ...not picking stocks which they will like to hold in their portfolio too ...I reckon thats not fun ....:cool:

[percy]

Thats what I was trying to say but then all said they disagree ...they wanted to have fun with imaginary money ...not picking stocks which they will like to hold in their portfolio too ...I reckon thats not fun ....:cool:

Well wife and I am certainly having very profitable fun with our ALF and GEN shareholdings.
ALF up about 36% in 2 years while GEN is up 56% in 11 months.

In NZX and ASX Sharetrader competitions I only pick stocks we hold.
Enties are as Percy,Percy guest and Lorraina.
Pity there is no competition for USX [Unlisted Exchange] stocks.,as my largest and third largest holdings are on it.

[nztx]

Well wife and I am certainly having very profitable fun with our ALF and GEN shareholdings.
ALF up about 36% in 2 years while GEN is up 56% in 11 months.

In NZX and ASX Sharetrader competitions I only pick stocks we hold.
Enties are as Percy,Percy guest and Lorraina.
Pity there is no competition for USX [Unlisted Exchange] stocks.,as my largest and third largest holdings are on it.


Read the ALF & NZL threads recently ? ;)

how much longer will the 'fun' continue .. until next reporting time ?

[percy]

Read the ALF & NZL threads recently ? ;)

how much longer will the 'fun' continue .. until next reporting time ?

NZL Market Cap $125 mil.I do not hold so will not comment.Ma
ALF.Market Cap $22 mil.Fun is set to continue.

[justakiwi]

How often does this get updated?

[na2m1]

Not too sure but this is the first time in a longgggggg time my name showed up in top 25 so lets keep it that way. Something I can be proud of. Kinda :-)

[777]

Updated when peetter has time.

[peetter]

Hi All,

apologies for late update. Life got in the way. It seems start of 2023 is generally going much better in investing world. Stocks are up, crypto is up, US inflation seems to be down a bit.

I'm glad to see there was a strong reaction to my mistake of including low cap companies. It's good to know people are following the competition. I will let the people keep their picks, it might make the competition a bit more interesting. But I'll consider doing a second set of results using peoples backup picks at the end of the year.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjmZZ...WmfCP?e=fcndeN (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjmZZHfBeuUxWmfCP?e=fcndeN)

Top 10 on 07/02/2023:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
wizAlvin
SVR
RBD
MEE
MMH
NGB

59567.71422
119.14%


2
Paul jc
TSK
NTL
OCA
GEN
PHL

59547.8279
119.10%


3
Charlie
AIR
CHI
NTL
MFT
RYM

59341.22729
118.68%


4
Paint it Black
NTL
FPH
ASR
IFT
MFT

58744.1527
117.49%


5
samh194
SVR
OCA
RYM
SUM
ATM

57958.623
115.92%


6
Aanvil
SKO
CO2
MEE
ATM
ARV

57354.51922
114.71%


7
waldurp
ARV
FBU
GNE
OCA
RYM

57180.795
114.36%


8
The-Corn-In-Your-Poo
OCA
FBU
ARV
RYM
GNE

57180.795
114.36%


9
freebee
FBU
HGH
OCA
SPY
SKT

56930.70154
113.86%


10
Tomtom
MFT
RYM
EBO
FBU
FPH

56693.70687
113.39%

[Nemology]

NZL Market Cap $125 mil.I do not hold so will not comment.Ma
ALF.Market Cap $22 mil.Fun is set to continue.

ALF's $ from NZL mgmt contract is paid in stock...how much is that stock worth given NZL's dilution + widening NTA discount? ;)

[Tomtom]

10 Tomtom MFT RYM EBO FBU FPH Can't get complacent yet or my arch nemesis from last year, a risk free Banks savings account, might catch me.

[nztx]

ALF's $ from NZL mgmt contract is paid in stock...how much is that stock worth given NZL's dilution + widening NTA discount? ;)


SP slide down a greasy slope looks interesting for NZL -- how much in fair value write down's on the Aug 2022 Performance fees taken in shares at loftier issue prices will Alfred (ALF) take as a large dent on the nose ? :)


Just 2,500,000 NZL new Performance shares issued at $1.65 near enough on 2/9/2022
to Muddy Boots Management Company - that's a 60c a share wack around the chops
on today's $1.05 close in just the 5 1/2 months to date :)


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZL/398145/378301.pdf


Another 22.5c NZL SP drop and that's half the 2022 Performance fee effectively flushed down the drain

Meanwhile over at NZL - how's the rising Interest Rate pain going ? ;)

[nztx]

Should we send out a search party for Peetter ? :)

[wizAlvin]

Should we send out a search party for Peetter ? :)

Nah! the comp can sit like this till year end! :) :)

[Paint it Black]

Nah! the comp can sit like this till year end! :) :)

But it is good to follow on a regular basis. Understand if Peetter has been affected by Gabrielle?

[peetter]

Hi everyone, I thankfully wasn't affected by cyclone. Nothing that serious, just had to move houses and spent all free time putting everything in place and fixing various small issues. I'll either update the comp today or during the weekend. Depends on how much work will the recent changes on NZX will be to action.

[peetter]

Hi All,

we've had some changes. NTL shares consolidation 10-> 1. Ticker change FRE -> FRW. SCY delisting.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjmjj6Q1_e8H4O5El?e=gNkoOD

Top 10 on 10/03/2023:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
QOH
OCA
EBO
GEN
BLT
ATM

56939.44616
113.88%


2
Old mate
ARV
HLG
MCK
GEN
OCA

55377.52876
110.76%


3
lorraina
ALF
GEN
GNE
KPG
SPK

55012.03964
110.02%


4
Supersonic_Steve
AIR
CEN
GEN
IFT
SPK

54617.17978
109.23%


5
ogg
SKT
SKT
SKT
SKT
SKT

54347.82609
108.70%


6
Prestige worldwide
GEN
VGL
ANZ
SKC
SAN

54298.47774
108.60%


7
Fiordland Moose Guest
SPY
THL
PPH
GNE
SKC

54262.35755
108.52%


8
delouis
ATM
PGW
HGH
GEN
POT

54213.35469
108.43%


9
percy
AFT
GEN
HGH
OCA
STU

54055.60741
108.11%


10
wizAlvin
SVR
RBD
MEE
MMH
NGB

54028.03134
108.06%

[nztx]

Hi Peetter

Thanks for the update

Is Ogg's line correct with 5 picks each of SKT ?

[peetter]

Good point! That's not allowed. I'll remove that entry.

[wizAlvin]

thanks Peeter -

[nztx]

thanks Peeter -


I hear that the NTL appreciation brigade are chasing hard after your MEE .. ;)

Best watch that - there's quite a few of them :)

[peetter]

Hi All,

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjmkj...OZ6Ee?e=d01hbf (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjmkj_zy-Cm_OZ6Ee?e=d01hbf)

Top 10 on 24/03/2023:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Old mate
ARV
HLG
MCK
GEN
OCA

57054.9861
114.11%


2
Supersonic_Steve
AIR
CEN
GEN
IFT
SPK

56889.55265
113.78%


3
QOH
OCA
EBO
GEN
BLT
ATM

56879.50182
113.76%


4
lorraina
ALF
GEN
GNE
KPG
SPK

56169.73668
112.34%


5
Prestige worldwide
GEN
VGL
ANZ
SKC
SAN

55697.29439
111.39%


6
amalgam
BRM
GEN
CEN
SKL
FBU

55185.69668
110.37%


7
Paul jc
TSK
NTL
OCA
GEN
PHL

54862.5731
109.73%


8
delouis
ATM
PGW
HGH
GEN
POT

54745.31383
109.49%


9
Fiordland Moose Guest
SPY
THL
PPH
GNE
SKC

54315.01143
108.63%


10
Fiordland Moose
SPY
THL
PPH
IFT
SKC

54220.50948
108.44%

[winner69]

“Dogs of the last 2 years” has good picks and living up to their past performance …only a coup of entries doing worse.

But what one expect picking MFB TSK BLT OCA and PEB

[whirly]

I stuffed it up already by selecting SCY instead of SDL which was right beside it. Sorry.

Back on 26/12/22 I posted this. Its really messing with my game. Any chance it could be addressed? Cheers W

[nztx]

Hi All,

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjmkj...OZ6Ee?e=d01hbf (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjmkj_zy-Cm_OZ6Ee?e=d01hbf)

Top 10 on 07/02/2023:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Old mate
ARV
HLG
MCK
GEN
OCA

57054.9861
114.11%


2
Supersonic_Steve
AIR
CEN
GEN
IFT
SPK

56889.55265
113.78%


3
QOH
OCA
EBO
GEN
BLT
ATM

56879.50182
113.76%


4
lorraina
ALF
GEN
GNE
KPG
SPK

56169.73668
112.34%


5
Prestige worldwide
GEN
VGL
ANZ
SKC
SAN

55697.29439
111.39%


6
amalgam
BRM
GEN
CEN
SKL
FBU

55185.69668
110.37%


7
Paul jc
TSK
NTL
OCA
GEN
PHL

54862.5731
109.73%


8
delouis
ATM
PGW
HGH
GEN
POT

54745.31383
109.49%


9
Fiordland Moose Guest
SPY
THL
PPH
GNE
SKC

54315.01143
108.63%


10
Fiordland Moose
SPY
THL
PPH
IFT
SKC

54220.50948
108.44%




Thanks Peetter - is your Top Ten 'as at Date' right or another Update due covering the six weeks since ?

[peetter]

Just a copy paste error, changed to 24/03

[peetter]

Back on 26/12/22 I posted this. Its really messing with my game. Any chance it could be addressed? Cheers W

Updated. It'll show up correct next time.

[whirly]

Thanks very much peetter. It will be interesting to see if it makes any difference to my position as Im currently second to last on the asx comp as well.:scared:

[peetter]

Hi All,

Fiordland Moose is simply dominating this week!

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjnOvo41hcDhpmwwA?e=dJeu5S

Top 10 on 03/04/2023:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Fiordland Moose Guest

SPY
THL
PPH
GNE
SKC

55163.96786
110.33%


2
Fiordland Moose
SPY
THL
PPH
IFT
SKC

55063.3719
110.13%


3
Supersonic_Steve
AIR
CEN
GEN
IFT
SPK

54281.82937
108.56%


4
QOH
OCA
EBO
GEN
BLT
ATM

54221.0568
108.44%


5
Old mate
ARV
HLG
MCK
GEN
OCA

54014.79819
108.03%


6
Pocket_Eights
MEL
IFT
FPH
THL
OCA

53612.91432
107.23%


7
lorraina
ALF
GEN
GNE
KPG
SPK

53541.72511
107.08%


8
alokdhir
FPH
MFT
GNE
IFT
SUM

53479.66233
106.96%


9
blackie
OCA
TRA
THL
RBD
MFT

53437.53113
106.88%


10
Polentasoup
AIA
SKL
TNZ
CNU
USG

53323.77359
106.65%

[whirly]

That's a bit more respectable in the black now at 67th. Thanks Peeter.

[Muse]

Hi All,

Fiordland Moose is simply dominating this week!

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjnOvo41hcDhpmwwA?e=dJeu5S

Top 10 on 03/04/2023:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Fiordland Moose Guest
SPY
THL
PPH
GNE
SKC

55163.96786
110.33%


2
Fiordland Moose
SPY
THL
PPH
IFT
SKC

55063.3719
110.13%


3
Supersonic_Steve
AIR
CEN
GEN
IFT
SPK

54281.82937
108.56%


4
QOH
OCA
EBO
GEN
BLT
ATM

54221.0568
108.44%


5
Old mate
ARV
HLG
MCK
GEN
OCA

54014.79819
108.03%


6
Pocket_Eights
MEL
IFT
FPH
THL
OCA

53612.91432
107.23%


7
lorraina
ALF
GEN
GNE
KPG
SPK

53541.72511
107.08%


8
alokdhir
FPH
MFT
GNE
IFT
SUM

53479.66233
106.96%


9
blackie
OCA
TRA
THL
RBD
MFT

53437.53113
106.88%


10
Polentasoup
AIA
SKL
TNZ
CNU
USG

53323.77359
106.65%




Every moose eventually gets its day. No need for further updates Peetter - happy for you to leave this as is until year end/

[alokdhir]

Every moose eventually gets its day. No need for further updates Peetter - happy for you to leave this as is until year end/

I am OK with this suggestion FM ...as finally I managed to enter top 10 ...slow and steady wins this race ...it's not a sprint but a marathon ....lol

[nztx]

Every moose eventually gets its day. No need for further updates Peetter - happy for you to leave this as is until year end/


Aha .. but when PPH gets wiped off the board, then you have just 4 legs on each runner :)

Better put on a good shout for your guest ..

[peetter]

Hi All,

Fiordland Moose extending his lead!

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjwJu5WwDIX3ax6l3?e=1u5QwD

Top 10 on 14/04/2023:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Fiordland Moose Guest
SPY
THL
PPH
GNE
SKC

57194.87536
114.39%


2
Fiordland Moose
SPY
THL
PPH
IFT
SKC

57092.2406
114.18%


3
rocketboy
THL
EBO
GTK
IFT
TWR

54327.63463
108.66%


4
blackie
OCA
TRA
THL
RBD
MFT

53920.70892
107.84%


5
Pocket_Eights
MEL
IFT
FPH
THL
OCA

53711.9182
107.42%


6
Dassets
TEM
EUF
EMF
TWF
TCL

53710.26967
107.42%


7
Supersonic_Steve
AIR
CEN
GEN
IFT
SPK

53476.29418
106.95%


8
alokdhir
FPH
MFT
GNE
IFT
SUM

53184.8188
106.37%


9
Snoopy
MCY
SCT
SKC
SPK
TRA

53174.75544
106.35%


10
Polentasoup
AIA
SKL
TNZ
CNU
USG

53134.37777
106.27%

[Habits]

Good work Peetter
40 and climbing

[peetter]

Hi All,

Fiordland Moose still in lead.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjwSs...f_bc3?e=yxSr8T (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjwSsaGcbWpzf_bc3?e=yxSr8T)

Top 10 on 21/04/2023:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Fiordland Moose
SPY
THL
PPH
IFT
SKC

57832.28657
115.66%


2
Fiordland Moose Guest
SPY
THL
PPH
GNE
SKC

57503.7926
115.01%


3
rocketboy
THL
EBO
GTK
IFT
TWR

54636.4451
109.27%


4
Dassets
TEM
EUF
EMF
TWF
TCL

54565.26365
109.13%


5
GRAHAM
TSK
BOT
USF
IFT
EBO

54394.34359
108.79%


6
Pocket_Eights
MEL
IFT
FPH
THL
OCA

54277.32341
108.55%


7
blackie
OCA
TRA
THL
RBD
MFT

53992.18374
107.98%


8
maptuv
AIA
IFT
CEN
AFT
THL

53784.99042
107.57%


9
Supersonic_Steve
AIR
CEN
GEN
IFT
SPK

53661.39633
107.32%


10
MoiMoi
AIA
RAK
RBD
SKC
SKT

53257.98237
106.52%

[nztx]

The Mooses might start getting a run for their money soon ? :)

[Muse]

The interesting thing is how well the ETF pickers are going - Dassets and Bobdn in particular. A bigger story there and food for thought.

[winner69]

The interesting thing is how well the ETF pickers are going - Dassets and Bobdn in particular. A bigger story there and food for thought.

And past losers keep on losing …2nd last and down 20% odd

A bigger story there and food for thought ….but the year is still young

[Dassets]

Moose, exactly. I am happy to pick stocks and have done in two past comps. First year I think I was in the top 10 or 20, last year mid pack, I picked Trade Window as one a week before the start. It then doubled or more before the start of the comp last year so I knew I was in trouble on that alone. Disclosure: used to be analyst/dealer then fund manager etc so I have some experience at least. I picked a suite of off shore ETFs because I saw a recession coming here and I wanted to be short NZD. I knew it wouldn't be spectacular but I didn't have great hope for NZ and expected a recession occur this year. I also thought about the election and thought that would be very disrupting. At this point the strategy is starting to pan out. I wasn't confident about kiwi stocks functionally net short NZD and out of touch with aussi market. So I headed to ETFs

[SailorRob]

Moose, exactly. I am happy to pick stocks and have done in two past comps. First year I think I was in the top 10 or 20, last year mid pack, I picked Trade Window as one a week before the start. It then doubled or more before the start of the comp last year so I knew I was in trouble on that alone. Disclosure: used to be analyst/dealer then fund manager etc so I have some experience at least. I picked a suite of off shore ETFs because I saw a recession coming here and I wanted to be short NZD. I knew it wouldn't be spectacular but I didn't have great hope for NZ and expected a recession occur this year. I also thought about the election and thought that would be very disrupting. At this point the strategy is starting to pan out. I wasn't confident about kiwi stocks functionally net short NZD and out of touch with aussi market. So I headed to ETFs


What is your past track record in picking recessions and what was your record as a fund manager?

[Dassets]

Pretty good on both. The fund returns were class leading by quite a bit for the 4 or 5 years I was there including alot of GFC. It is on public record. On the different asset classes and geographic markets on qtrly basis I was in front of a risk adjusted bench around 2/3rds of the qtrs. In NZ equities top quartile against a lot of managers and most were just doing NZ equities whereas I had a global multi asset class mandate. That last stuff wasn't all disclosed publicly I think. Funds size was in the hundreds. Recessions a bit more of a track record because I could do that on the sell side too. But I am not like Liam Dann who has picked 15 of the last 3 recessions. Started at a broker in 1991 so that ages me.

[SailorRob]

Pretty good on both. The fund returns were class leading by quite a bit for the 4 or 5 years I was there including alot of GFC. It is on public record. On the different asset classes and geographic markets on qtrly basis I was in front of a risk adjusted bench around 2/3rds of the qtrs. In NZ equities top quartile against a lot of managers and most were just doing NZ equities whereas I had a global multi asset class mandate. That last stuff wasn't all disclosed publicly I think. Funds size was in the hundreds. Recessions a bit more of a track record because I could do that on the sell side too. But I am not like Liam Dann who has picked 15 of the last 3 recessions. Started at a broker in 1991 so that ages me.


I had never heard of anyone in the world who had a track record of being able to predict recessions in a statistically significant way, neither has Buffett, that doesn't not mean they don't exist.

But even if they could, for example someone who called the covid recession perfectly, good luck to trading around that, they would have had their face torn off. I'm not one who considers volatility 'risk' and adjustments around it seem very academic.

Given these skills though, you should have been able to handily beat the returns provided by being invested in a ultra low cost index fund over this very long period and have a extremely large net worth to show for it.

To me all the academic nonsense is just that, the 'class leading' the 'risk adjusted' the 'quarters' the 'multi asset'. Over a long period of time you can either beat a low cost index fund after fees or you can't. If you can't then there is no way of explaining it with a Greek alphabet.

I don't mean to be rude but very few of those pros can deliver any value to an investor over a simple cheap index fund. Having read what you wrote about recession predicting and short NZD, I have a super high confidence that you have not personally beaten the returns offered by bring permanently invested in a simple index fund from the 1990's OR any 8 year period at all.

[Ferg]

I had never heard of anyone in the world who had a track record of being able to predict recessions in a statistically significant way, neither has Buffett, that doesn't not mean they don't exist.

I can't speak for Dassets but my thoughts......I'm sure you are right no-one can pick them all - but if you are close enough to the right numbers you can sense something is up. For example, mid 2000s there was a lot of private equity money being thrown around and I was self employed in that arena as a consultant. My forward order book had been full for a decade, and suddenly forward orders dried up (although I still had plenty of work to complete). I was nervous so I convinced a client to take me on as an employee, and then the GFC hit. Some might say luck, but the indicator was there for me and I acted upon it. People often say you cannot predict the future; although we can make predictions. Some might get it right, some might not. We don't need to get all of them right but getting one right can make a massive financial difference, as can getting one wrong. The GFC was a great property buying opportunity (we doubled down), as was the Covid crash (thanks very much!). I have read a number of your posts and agree that times of bad sentiment present great buying opportunities, especially where the sentiment is divorced from the financials. We live in interesting times.

[SailorRob]

I can't speak for Dassets but my thoughts......I'm sure you are right no-one can pick them all - but if you are close enough to the right numbers you can sense something is up. For example, mid 2000s there was a lot of private equity money being thrown around and I was self employed in that arena as a consultant. My forward order book had been full for a decade, and suddenly forward orders dried up (although I still had plenty of work to complete). I was nervous so I convinced a client to take me on as an employee, and then the GFC hit. Some might say luck, but the indicator was there for me and I acted upon it. People often say you cannot predict the future; although we can make predictions. Some might get it right, some might not. We don't need to get all of them right but getting one right can make a massive financial difference, as can getting one wrong. The GFC was a great property buying opportunity (we doubled down), as was the Covid crash (thanks very much!). I have read a number of your posts and agree that times of bad sentiment present great buying opportunities, especially where the sentiment is divorced from the financials. We live in interesting times.


Yeah I agree with your thinking. It's not just a matter of picking them all, it's being able to trade around them. Plenty have picked them all, but the ones they picked that didn't eventuate killed them. With your GFC example, imagine if you were fully invested how you would have actually acted and when you would have 'got out' and doubted yourself while the music continued and then when the crash began, when you would have got back in, vs if you had just done nothing, maybe you would have done better maybe not. But I agree with what you're saying.

The 2021 craze was so completely obvious to the point when reading Zweigs chapters in 'The Intelligent Investor' it was hard to differentiate from the Dot com. But to be able to trade around it is a different story.

It only takes getting it right once as you say, but imagine your smugness having perfectly predicted the Covid crash, gone to 100% cash in Feb... next thing you know you're left for dead.

The point of my reply to Dassets was I too often see former or current pro's talking technical like that and sounding uber sophisticated which can easily lead the naïve, and I have just one question for them, have you produced returns that have bettered a low cost index fund for many many years. And the answer is always no.

Property buying was great in the GFC in hindsight yes, but many places in NZ had not done anything until 2016 and that's a long time to wait to be proven right by a once in 100 year set of events that eventuated afterwards. I'll never forget staying at a lodge around Taupo in 2015 and the guy had come out from the UK and bought a bunch of properties here, he wasn't old but told me he would be happy if he got his money back before he died. Now that will be long forgotten but the grueling decade was tough for him.

[Ferg]

Ouch - holding investment property in Taupo for a decade would test anyone's mettle. To your point I don't think you will find any fund manager that can beat an index for decades at a time....but I think my anecdote shows that (through a combination of luck and keeping your eyes and ears open) is that one can make superior returns over a relatively shorter timeframe. Is that repeatable? Probably not. But it doesn't stop us from trying! It could be Dassets had a similar experience over a similar timeframe. I hear what you are saying about former fundies and/or charlatans (of which there are plenty) but I wonder if you are reading more into Dassets posts than they are saying? Dassets is not the sort of person to toot their own horn and declare all follow....not at all. I viewed their post as sharing an anecdote (just like mine) explaining their picks and background, as opposed to any sort of declaration of superiority or investment advice etc.

Cheers

[SailorRob]

Ouch - holding investment property in Taupo for a decade would test anyone's mettle. To your point I don't think you will find any fund manager that can beat an index for decades at a time....but I think my anecdote shows that (through a combination of luck and keeping your eyes and ears open) is that one can make superior returns over a relatively shorter timeframe. Is that repeatable? Probably not. But it doesn't stop us from trying! It could be Dassets had a similar experience over a similar timeframe. I hear what you are saying about former fundies and/or charlatans (of which there are plenty) but I wonder if you are reading more into Dassets posts than they are saying? Dassets is not the sort of person to toot his own horn and declare all follow him....not at all. I viewed his post as sharing an anecdote (just like mine) explaining their NZX picks and their background, as opposed to any sort of declaration of superiority or investment advice etc.

Cheers


Correct, he definitely wasn't doing that and he is no charlatan nor claiming to be anything, I just worry about others thinking that this is the way to behave as I may once have thought. I guess the whole one year nature of the comp leads to this type of positioning having a good chance of working. If everyone is long NZ and you're offshore then in a given set of circumstances you will win.


No, there are many managers who have beaten the index over decades, and many more who have since beginning in the 90's, but it takes a lot of work to find and follow them and that is a huge part of my process.

[Tomtom]

Would I be correct in thinking that last year there was a greater performance divergence than this year?

[nztx]

We have some interesting runners in the 2023 competition :)

Try these for size - the link in last update:

Jacinda Ardern
Grant Robertson

and a few other curious nics too

all well down Peetter's list though ;)

[nztx]

Would I be correct in thinking that last year there was a greater performance divergence than this year?


possible .. first 4 months this year hasn't been exciting in some quarters..

but then last year saw some steady downhill slopes too

[peetter]

Hi All,

It's been some time since last update. Hopefully I'll now be able to do regular updates again.

Fiordland Moose is still in the lead, but others are closing in. This year definitely seems much better than last one so far. Hopefully predicted rising rates won't crash the economy.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjyIN5hpU1Qt4KcDN?e=SB8ZTE

Top 10 on 19/05/2023:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Fiordland Moose
SPY
THL
PPH
IFT
SKC

58063.2139
116.13%


2
Ggcc
SPY
TSK
IFT
HGH
OCA

57518.03271
115.04%


3
Fiordland Moose Guest
SPY
THL
PPH
GNE
SKC

57262.43422
114.52%


4
GlennS
HLG
IFT
MCY
TRA
RYM

56909.1737
113.82%


5
GRAHAM
TSK
BOT
USF
IFT
EBO

56540.59814
113.08%


6
Rawz
IKE
SPY
RAK
HLG
TRA

56063.96875
112.13%


7
Jay
ARV
HLG
SKT
THL
TRA

55097.44847
110.19%


8
blackie
OCA
TRA
THL
RBD
MFT

55031.29799
110.06%


9
freebee
FBU
HGH
OCA
SPY
SKT

55000.70385
110.00%


10
OtherGuy
KMD
OCA
RAK
TSK
HLG

54735.17117
109.47%

[Grimy]

Link please?
Many thanks.

[justakiwi]

It's in the post above.


Link please?
Many thanks.

[peetter]

Link please?
Many thanks.
Link Added

[Ggcc]

Thanks petter.

Well would you look at that. Plus I own all of those shares. Next time I hope to be number one lol.

[Grimy]

Link Added

Many thanks Peetter.

[Rawz]

as long as i am ahead of alokdhir i am happy :p

[winner69]

NZX LOSERS deserves special mention for living up to their name

Or maybe they expected the losers to become the stars of the NZX

[Rawz]

NZX LOSERS deserves special mention for living up to their name

Or maybe they expected the losers to become the stars of the NZX

A bit rude putting MHJ in there??? Talk about a diamond in the rough

[alokdhir]

as long as i am ahead of alokdhir i am happy :p

Well done mate ...hopefully U will remain ahead of me till year end ...wish u well as always :t_up:

[nztx]

NTL may strike gold to put on the table before year end .. then what ? :)

[peetter]

Hi All,

Ggcc takes the lead!

PPH Delisted. Thanks Fiordland Moose for all the necessary info! Saved me some valuable time!

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjyo3wnafwhI_Pge7?e=UCl0Hl


Top 10 on 26/05/2023:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Ggcc
SPY
TSK
IFT
HGH
OCA

60894.36436
121.79%


2
GRAHAM
TSK
BOT
USF
IFT
EBO

59700.12339
119.40%


3
Fiordland Moose Guest
SPY
THL
PPH
GNE
SKC
DGL
59062.82185
118.13%


4
Fiordland Moose
SPY
THL
PPH
IFT
SKC
GNE
58535.11753
117.07%


5
rocketboy
THL
EBO
GTK
IFT
TWR

57860.94459
115.72%


6
OtherGuy
KMD
OCA
RAK
TSK
HLG

57455.43691
114.91%


7
GlennS
HLG
IFT
MCY
TRA
RYM

56356.90426
112.71%


8
freebee
FBU
HGH
OCA
SPY
SKT

56164.22013
112.33%


9
SausageDog
SKO
TSK
IKE
OCA
JLG

56124.26901
112.25%


10
Till 7 Figures
RAK
SPK
IFT
SKC
TSK

55896.37799
111.79%

[peetter]

Hi All,

Ggcc still the lead, but Fiordland Moose is on his/her heals!

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjyu8oDmGb7bcOpQm?e=aiMpvt

Top 10 on 05/06/2023:

Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Ggcc
SPY
TSK
IFT
HGH
OCA

62908.78207
125.82%


2
Fiordland Moose Guest
SPY
THL
PPH
GNE
SKC
DGL
60937.67795
121.88%


3
Fiordland Moose
SPY
THL
PPH
IFT
SKC
GNE
60598.37334
121.20%


4
GRAHAM
TSK
BOT
USF
IFT
EBO

59223.79641
118.45%


5
freebee
FBU
HGH
OCA
SPY
SKT

58489.44934
116.98%


6
Rawz
IKE
SPY
RAK
HLG
TRA

58084.62892
116.17%


7
GlennS
HLG
IFT
MCY
TRA
RYM

57295.63958
114.59%


8
Cobra427
AIR
CHI
HLG
SPY
ATM

57027.14246
114.05%


9
OtherGuy
KMD
OCA
RAK
TSK
HLG

56396.01723
112.79%


10
rocketboy
THL
EBO
GTK
IFT
TWR

56355.90417
112.71%

[thegreatestben]

22 entries featuring PEB - will be a bit of a reshuffle next update!

[Muse]

well done Ggcc - you deserve the lead w/ those two screamers!

only 8 chose SPY in this years' comp...all are in the top 15.
couple that with TSK as Ggcc did and boom up 126%....potent combo
need my THL to regain some of its luster & SKC to get over its negative re-rate...hopeful on both but might need to be patient...

[Ggcc]

well done Ggcc - you deserve the lead w/ those two screamers!

only 8 chose SPY in this years' comp...all are in the top 15.
couple that with TSK as Ggcc did and boom up 126%....potent combo
need my THL to regain some of its luster & SKC to get over its negative re-rate...hopeful on both but might need to be patient...

Thanks again. Just glad to be in the top 10 to be fair. I do know at some stage TSK will delist from nzx. Hopefully early next year lol.

[peetter]

Hi All,

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyjzcIvXeSgVV0cUUl?e=XmWlos

Top 10 on 09/06/2023:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Ggcc
SPY
TSK
IFT
HGH
OCA

62246.59498
124.49%


2
Fiordland Moose Guest
SPY
THL
PPH
GNE
SKC
DGL
61099.7351
122.20%


3
Fiordland Moose
SPY
THL
PPH
IFT
SKC
GNE
60757.85061
121.52%


4
freebee
FBU
HGH
OCA
SPY
SKT

58949.42064
117.90%


5
Rawz
IKE
SPY
RAK
HLG
TRA

57369.02842
114.74%


6
GRAHAM
TSK
BOT
USF
IFT
EBO

57305.57584
114.61%


7
Cobra427
AIR
CHI
HLG
SPY
ATM

57070.96522
114.14%


8
Paul jc
TSK
NTL
OCA
GEN
PHL

56374.26901
112.75%


9
GlennS
HLG
IFT
MCY
TRA
RYM

56146.22778
112.29%


10
NZTX
USV
SPY
SKL
ANZ
SPK

55935.41974
111.87%

[Snoopy]

Hi Petter. Appreciate your work. But while the top ten have been updated in your latest post 158, the link in that post takes you back to a copy of the previous 5th June spreadsheet.

SNOOPY

[Tomtom]

Well done to the NZX losers down the bottom. Perhaps we've been looking at investing upside down, instead of picking winners we should be excluding pups.

[winner69]

Well done to the NZX losers down the bottom. Perhaps we've been looking at investing upside down, instead of picking winners we should be excluding pups.

And ignore ChatGPT……down in 191 place

[peetter]

Hi Petter. Appreciate your work. But while the top ten have been updated in your latest post 158, the link in that post takes you back to a copy of the previous 5th June spreadsheet.

SNOOPY

the link is updated

[wizAlvin]

Thanks Peetter, slippage; still better than last year for a person who nothing of NZ shares. :)

[peetter]

Hi All,

Ggcc still in the lead. PEB really shaken up the stands.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyj0g9VaZECsYvPs6j?e=KbtA2w

Top 10 on 23/06/2023:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Ggcc
SPY
TSK
IFT
HGH
OCA

62246.59498
124.49%


2
Fiordland Moose Guest
SPY
THL
PPH
GNE
SKC
DGL
61099.7351
122.20%


3
Fiordland Moose
SPY
THL
PPH
IFT
SKC
GNE
60757.85061
121.52%


4
freebee
FBU
HGH
OCA
SPY
SKT

58949.42064
117.90%


5
Rawz
IKE
SPY
RAK
HLG
TRA

57369.02842
114.74%


6
GRAHAM
TSK
BOT
USF
IFT
EBO

57305.57584
114.61%


7
Cobra427
AIR
CHI
HLG
SPY
ATM

57070.96522
114.14%


8
Paul jc
TSK
NTL
OCA
GEN
PHL

56374.26901
112.75%


9
GlennS
HLG
IFT
MCY
TRA
RYM

56146.22778
112.29%


10
NZTX
USV
SPY
SKL
ANZ
SPK

55935.41974
111.87%

[ronaldson]

Peeter - The link you have posted is not in fact to the 23 June update, but to the former 9 June update.

[ronaldson]

I suggest ERD (not just PEB) will also have really shaken up the standings as at 23 June (when we get to actually see them).

Well, perhaps not. I just looked and only 4/215 selected ERD.

[peetter]

Hi All,

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyj0oy...Tl-zf?e=5zykQp (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyj0oyv_ozNaYTl-zf?e=5zykQp)

Top 10 on 30/06/2023:

Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Ggcc
SPY
TSK
IFT
HGH
OCA

62207.56
124.42%


2
Fiordland Moose
SPY
THL
PPH
IFT
SKC
GNE
61737.11
123.47%


3
Fiordland Moose Guest
SPY
THL
PPH
GNE
SKC
DGL
60764.17
121.53%


4
freebee
FBU
HGH
OCA
SPY
SKT

59648.54
119.30%


5
GlennS
HLG
IFT
MCY
TRA
RYM

58036.65
116.07%


6
Rawz
IKE
SPY
RAK
HLG
TRA

57957.74
115.92%


7
GRAHAM
TSK
BOT
USF
IFT
EBO

57387.72
114.78%


8
Cobra427
AIR
CHI
HLG
SPY
ATM

57266.38
114.53%


9
Barnee
IFT
IKE
OCA
SKO
HGH

56840.43
113.68%


10
NZTX
USV
SPY
SKL
ANZ
SPK

56653.86
113.31%

[Snoopy]

Hi Petter,

Really appreciate your work BUT, the chart you just posted is absolutely identical to the one you posted a week ago. Plus, if you take Ronaldson at this word, the spreadsheet is locked back as it was nearly a month ago, on June 9th.

SNOOPY

[Habits]

With 4.2% gains, ForBar is leading the brokers picks at mid-year

[Grimy]

My position has changed in the charts in the past month - slightly upwards thankfully. Admittedly I haven't checked last week's.

[ronaldson]

Hi Petter,

Really appreciate your work BUT, the chart you just posted is absolutely identical to the one you posted a week ago. Plus, if you take Ronaldson at this word, the spreadsheet is locked back as it was nearly a month ago, on June 9th.

SNOOPY
Yes, the problem persists. Really keen for a true update as ERD was one of my selections and surely now significantly out of red numbers, as only TWR has fallen away to be below par. The others are all positively healthy.

[Balance]

Tough half year for the brokers so far :

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/brokers-picks-mid-year-share-market-update-whos-ahead-in-tough-race/5D7324SUPJETJNAZDFIZ74WYTA/
paywalled

Jarden -15.1%
HHG - +2.2%
Forbar +4.2%
Craigs +0.2%
Hobson Wealth +0.4%
MSL +2.8%

Jarden's big mistake is to pick PEB while Forbar's pick of Infratil saved the day for them.

Now why would anyone pick PEB with the LCD coverage decision hanging over the stock?

[peetter]

Hi Petter,

Really appreciate your work BUT, the chart you just posted is absolutely identical to the one you posted a week ago. Plus, if you take Ronaldson at this word, the spreadsheet is locked back as it was nearly a month ago, on June 9th.

SNOOPY

You're right. I think Onedrive is definitely doing some sync shenanigans on me. I Updated the file and the comment.

[ronaldson]

You're right. I think Onedrive is definitely doing some sync shenanigans on me. I Updated the file and the comment.

Very happy to have moved up from 154/215 to 14/215 in the space of three weeks. ERD a winner but ARV, VGL and TRA all helping. Good thing it's a 12 month competition.

Thank you peetter for the effort. Given dividends also count towards the outcome it is a big job to track everything and keep the spreadsheet current.

[peetter]

Hi All,

Ggcc is now ahead with significant lead while Fiordland Mosse team seems to be falling slowly behind with multiple other contestants overtaking him.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyj2Ig...IiMhW?e=YcsDYe (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZyj2Ig-WPH1wfIiMhW?e=YcsDYe)

Top 10 on 21/06/2023:


Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Ggcc
SPY
TSK
IFT
HGH
OCA

65433.05472
130.87%


2
GRAHAM
TSK
BOT
USF
IFT
EBO

61125.88992
122.25%


3
freebee
FBU
HGH
OCA
SPY
SKT

60197.96586
120.40%


4
SausageDog
SKO
TSK
IKE
OCA
JLG

60121.95641
120.24%


5
CRISIS
SKT
MHJ
ERD
KMD
TSK

60004.32946
120.01%


6
Fiordland Moose
SPY
THL
PPH
IFT
SKC
GNE
59806.46588
119.61%


7
Cobra427
AIR
CHI
HLG
SPY
ATM

59460.13404
118.92%


8
Fiordland Moose Guest
SPY
THL
PPH
GNE
SKC
DGL
59453.17263
118.91%


9
Paul jc
TSK
NTL
OCA
GEN
PHL

58955.72264
117.91%


10
GlennS
HLG
IFT
MCY
TRA
RYM

58795.04066
117.59%

[Bobdn]

Look at Graham, riding the AI wave with BOT and USF to a lesser extent. Inspired choices.

[ronaldson]

Peetter - I assume your spreadsheet applies dividends on the date they are paid? Or are they incorporated on the ex date?

[nztx]

Hope Peetter is okay & we don't need to organise a search party .. :)

[Tomtom]

Hope Peetter is okay & we don't need to organise a search party .. :) He might have one of them job things we keep hearing about. I looked up the statistics, they are very popular now.

[peetter]

Hi All,

I'm fine, you don't have to worry. Had a hectic time with some snowboarding trips, work and little kid. Probably won't get much less busy for some time.

Here is an update. Ggcc still in lead, but his lead is getting smaller.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZykA5ly5mHCi1RjrsI?e=AkkFsb


Top 10 on 02/09/2023:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
Ggcc
SPY
TSK
IFT
HGH
OCA

60925.65
121.85%


2
Paul jc
TSK
NTL
OCA
GEN
PHL

59210.32
118.42%


3
GRAHAM
TSK
BOT
USF
IFT
EBO

58875.83
117.75%


4
Wookiee
CO2
IFT
OCA
SKO
ALD

58793.79
117.59%


5
Fiordland Moose
SPY
THL
PPH
IFT
SKC
GNE
58695.99
117.39%


6
Supersonic_Steve
AIR
CEN
GEN
IFT
SPK

58096.97
116.19%


7
SausageDog
SKO
TSK
IKE
OCA
JLG

58029.55
116.06%


8
rocketboy
THL
EBO
GTK
IFT
TWR

57741.32
115.48%


9
Old mate
ARV
HLG
MCK
GEN
OCA

57457.2
114.91%


10
GlennS
HLG
IFT
MCY
TRA
RYM

57392.54
114.79%

[ronaldson]

We should always include an entry that is simply "cash" based upon rolling 3-month TD rate. Would be well placed this year, ahead of about two thirds of the field!

Lots of bitter pills for quite a few of us to swallow since the last update.

[clip]

Stupid question, when percentage says 121.85% in first place for ggcc, does that mean a gain of 121.85% for the year? or 21.85%
And conversely if percentage says 93.49%, does that mean a loss of 93.49% or a loss of 6.5% ?

[justakiwi]

OK, I have to ask … which one of you is “The Corn in my Poo?” :D

[ronaldson]

Stupid question, when percentage says 121.85% in first place for ggcc, does that mean a gain of 121.85% for the year? or 21.85%
And conversely if percentage says 93.49%, does that mean a loss of 93.49% or a loss of 6.5% ?

I think it means that, averaged across the five equally weighted stocks in the chosen portfolio, the gain for ggcc is 21.85% so far in 2023 since the competition began. Of course, it could either gain or lose from this point according to how the chosen stocks behave on market. And likewise in your other example, the portfolio is currently negative 6.51%. So according to petter's table many more competitors are suffering notional losses at the moment then are notionally in profit. And if a 100% cash "portfolio" had been a permissible choice, accruing interest over the timeframe so far, then that would now be over 103% and that is ahead of way more than half the competitors, which could be salutary for some.

[clip]

Thank you!

[Ggcc]

Guess I’ll be off the leaderboard shortly. Task is set to move to Australia before the end of the year. It was a blast to be on there for a couple of months.

[Rawz]

Did anyone pick 2CC ?

[wizAlvin]

thank you Peetter

[nztx]

Hope Peetter's okay .. a month and a week after last signals detected :)

[peetter]

Hey guys, I'm super busy lately and it's hard to find some time to do the updates. I'll try to do an update soon and then I'll do the end of year one. I won't be continuing in 2024.

[Ggcc]

Hey guys, I'm super busy lately and it's hard to find some time to do the updates. I'll try to do an update soon and then I'll do the end of year one. I won't be continuing in 2024.
Don't stress I like being number 1, but my reign has ended when you do the next update. Well done to whoever is the new number 1

[xp04]

Hi everyone,

I don't want to be rude or anything like that but since I have plenty of spare time I took some liberty and created alternative competition board for 2023. Data was taken from the last spreadsheet published by peetter. The rules are similar but not exact, a bit simplified and expanded. Details could be viewed on "Info" tab of new board. This is a "LIVE" board and data is updated regularly during trading hours.
Hope it will help. Thanks.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DF8G8aB3hpp8KuYXqqGuZw7eFLpj8i5T96TfwK89Xhk/edit?usp=sharing

[clip]

Hi everyone,

I don't want to be rude or anything like that but since I have plenty of spare time I took some liberty and created alternative competition board for 2023. Data was taken from the last spreadsheet published by peetter. The rules are similar but not exact, a bit simplified and expanded. Details could be viewed on "Info" tab of new board. This is a "LIVE" board and data is updated regularly during trading hours.
Hope it will help. Thanks.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DF8G8aB3hpp8KuYXqqGuZw7eFLpj8i5T96TfwK89Xhk/edit?usp=sharing

This is pretty awesome and i'm sure peetter would be very happy to have something auto updating to take the load off him!

[Baa_Baa]

Hi everyone,

I don't want to be rude or anything like that but since I have plenty of spare time I took some liberty and created alternative competition board for 2023. Data was taken from the last spreadsheet published by peetter. The rules are similar but not exact, a bit simplified and expanded. Details could be viewed on "Info" tab of new board. This is a "LIVE" board and data is updated regularly during trading hours.
Hope it will help. Thanks.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DF8G8aB3hpp8KuYXqqGuZw7eFLpj8i5T96TfwK89Xhk/edit?usp=sharing

Nice, though the devil is in the detail maintaining this, for example, the delisted companies, their replacements, the rights issues and so on. Maintaining the register is not as simple as it appears at first glance.

[ronaldson]

Nice, though the devil is in the detail maintaining this, for example, the delisted companies, their replacements, the rights issues and so on. Maintaining the register is not as simple as it appears at first glance.

I think this competition would be better limited to NZX 50 companies as at 1 January each year, instead of many entries being focused on "penny dreadfuls" in the hope of finding one or two which double or treble in value regardless of whether they should/would be in ones actual portfolio. And the Broker comparitives basically stick to NZX 50 so it would more reflective of the situation of most investors.

[Paint it Black]

I think this competition would be better limited to NZX 50 companies as at 1 January each year, instead of many entries being focused on "penny dreadfuls" in the hope of finding one or two which double or treble in value regardless of whether they should/would be in ones actual portfolio. And the Broker comparitives basically stick to NZX 50 so it would more reflective of the situation of most investors.

Interesting point, especially with comparing with brokers picks, but I'd prefer to keep it as is. If you pick a successful 'penny dreadful' good luck to you.

[Waiuta]

Many thanks

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DF8G8aB3hpp8KuYXqqGuZw7eFLpj8i5T96TfwK89Xhk/edit?usp=sharing[/QUOTE]

[Paint it Black]

Hi everyone,

I don't want to be rude or anything like that but since I have plenty of spare time I took some liberty and created alternative competition board for 2023. Data was taken from the last spreadsheet published by peetter. The rules are similar but not exact, a bit simplified and expanded. Details could be viewed on "Info" tab of new board. This is a "LIVE" board and data is updated regularly during trading hours.
Hope it will help. Thanks.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DF8G8aB3hpp8KuYXqqGuZw7eFLpj8i5T96TfwK89Xhk/edit?usp=sharing

Brilliant XP04. Good to have it semi live. Thanks.

[winner69]

Brokers have been known to select non NzzX50 stocks and take a punt

[xp04]

Thank you for the replies.
I want to clarify, it wasn’t an attempt to replace the original game this year. As this year is coming to the end I decided not overcomplicate it as I did not have all data and it would take ages to scan back 10 months, I decided to create some sort of back up which is somewhat close to the original rules that everyone could see what is going on on a regular basis, plus I added Ranks for individual stocks. I did explained adjusted rules on the “Info” page. Main differences are rights issue are not included and there is no adjustments for delisted companies, they just replaced with backup preferences. Also dividends calculation is a bit different, I think net dividends are more appropriate. See “Info” for more details.
@Baa_Baa
Actually it’s not that complicated I used to do much more complicated things, but yes some manual entries will be required. If there are going to be some interest and unless i can find some kind of employment in the nearest future I could make it more “complicated” and accurate next time.
@ronaldson
When process automated it doesn’t matter how many entries in competition. nz companies from asx could be added for example. I have lots of crazy ideas :)
Thanks.

[xp04]

Hello again.
Many of you were saying that it's not "real" unless it includes delisted companies with their replacements, rights issues and other things. I've been listening and decided to make these adjustments :)
Now it has been adjusted to include replacements for delisted companies (PPH), warrants issues (BRM,KFL and NZL) and rights issues (ENS,GEO,NWF,NZL,RYM and TRU). If I missed anything please let me know.
Thanks

[Dassets]

The following is not great news for NZ or Australian equities.

My "stock" picks of NZ listed international index funds sadly has got me up to 9th place. I am actually a stock picker really but i learnt a long time ago that to invest a portfolio seriously you had to take a top down approach first before going bottom up for stock selection. If absolute returns v return against an index is important then a bad top down outlook makes it very hard for a group of stock picks to generate positive returns.

It is clear what I thought about the NZ top down position when we had to make our selections last year.

[Snoopy]

The following is not great news for NZ or Australian equities.

My "stock" picks of NZ listed international index funds sadly has got me up to 9th place. I am actually a stock picker really but i learnt a long time ago that to invest a portfolio seriously you had to take a top down approach first before going bottom up for stock selection. If absolute returns v return against an index is important then a bad top down outlook makes it very hard for a group of stock picks to generate positive returns.

It is clear what I thought about the NZ top down position when we had to make our selections last year.


Well I am 4.5 percentage points ahead of you in the year to date return as I write this Dassets. Whether I can keep that margin there until the 31st December is another matter. But right now while I stay ahead of you I can say 'nyah, nyah nyah!' and 'It can be done'. But well done on your (apparent) top ten place - except, as far as you are concerned the competition doesn't tell the full story of your returns.

Those three Smartshares funds are all good because all the tax issues are taken care of by Smartshares. But what about "Templeton Emerging Market Trust plc" and "The City of London Investment Trust plc".? These are UK listed. So you will have to organise your own FIF tax on those two,. If you are on a 39% tax rate, that equates to 0.39x5% of the opening value of the fund, which comes out at 1.95%.of $10k x2, or $390. So you drop down another four notches in the rankings I am sorry to report.

However leaving aside all nit picking, which as you can see I am very clever at (as an aside I am often described by my closest associates as a 'nit-wit'), all you are really saying is that at times overseas markets move out of synch with the NZX and ASX , which, while true, is I believe something that has been observed before by others....

SNOOPY

[Dassets]

[QUOTE=Snoopy;1031157]Well I am 4.5 percentage points ahead of you in the year to date return as I write this Dassets. Whether I can keep that margin there until the 31st December is another matter. But right now while I say ahead of you I can say 'nyah, nyah nyah!' and 'It can be done'. But well done on your (apparent) top ten place - except, as far as you are concerned the competition doesn't tell the full story of your returns.
Balance redacted.


Awww Snoopy, Snoopy, Snoopy(may I call you grasshopper(in jest))...

They are good observations I admit. However if you really want to go there I need to mention the Sharpe Ratio to you(I suspect you know about this anyway). Returns can only be truly understood when on a risk adjusted basis. For those that are not aware this example may clarify. Say I buy 5 stocks, all junior gold miners and my wife buys 200 stocks across a range of sectors and geographies. Over the year my portfolio's value bounces all over the place whereas my wife's portfolio has ups and downs but nothing like mine. On a risk basis I have taken more risk than her. I would expect to be rewarded long run for that but my timing for that is not short term. In other words there is no free lunch or so Dr Martin Lally would drill into you.

So my portfolio is the equivalent(risk wise) of 4 aces vs your 2 pair.

[nztx]

2024 Competition must be rapidly approaching - thoughts anyone ?

Wiz has got the 2024 Aussie Competition rolling towards the Starting blocks..

[xp04]

Hello everyone,
If there are no objections I can take over the 2024 NZX Comp and arrange a competition board similar to one I did for 2023. Any thoughts and ideas are welcome.
Cheers

[CD_CHCH]

Hi xp04 - that sounds good. Will it work like year's - pick 5 NZX stocks plus a spare just in case? To get the ball rolling do you want to post some rules and a link to the entry form.....

Also, thanks for stepping up and taking this on :)

[xp04]

I think 5 NZX stocks plus 2 spares. But, I'm open to ideas, otherwise rules will be similar to what I described for 2023. Entry form should be ready by Boxing day.

[alokdhir]

I think 5 NZX stocks plus 2 spares. But, I'm open to ideas, otherwise rules will be similar to what I described for 2023. Entry form should be ready by Boxing day.

Great job XP ...U r a STAR :t_up:

[Baa_Baa]

Just a reminder of the 'rules' for 2023.


Hello Everyone,

The rules are the same as 2022.

Rules:
1) Pick FIVE different NZX-listed equity instruments (incl. Smartshares and foreign companies listed in NZ).
- Companies/Funds with a market cap of less than $15m may not be selected.
2) Please also make a SIXTH pick - this will be used as a 'backup preference' should one of your picks delist or merge during the year. It won't cover companies that are placed in liquidation or dissolved.
3) Each pick has an equal weighting. You cannot pick the same option more than once.
4) Picks in by 9am January 4th 2022 (New Zealand time); ie, prior to trading opening.

Returns calculations
1) Each will start with a notional portfolio of $50,000 ($10,000 per pick)
2) Returns will be calculate from the last closing price of 2022 (Dec 30th 2022) to the last closing price of 2023.
3) Its a 'total return' comp, so Dividends will be included - but NOT benefits from imputation credits or other tax-specific benefits.
4) Rights issues are included according to a formula that does not increase capital, but recognises a capital gain/loss on the rights for the year. We may have to do this manually, but will cross that bridge when we come to it.
5) If a selection delists or otherwise somehow dissolves; it will be kept but manually adjusted in your selections to reflect the realised situation resulting from the event causing this. The realisation will then be "re-invested" in your backup preference (see 2), allowing the opportunity to continue participation on a level playing field.
6) Winner is the person who has the largest %age increase.


If there is a stock missing from the picklist on the survey form - let me know and I will sort it quickly!

May the odds be ever in your favour!

peetter

[Baa_Baa]

Hey guys, I'm super busy lately and it's hard to find some time to do the updates. I'll try to do an update soon and then I'll do the end of year one. I won't be continuing in 2024.

Thanks for your efforts in 2023, I'm sure we all hope that you have an opportunity to finalise the results when the market closes.

[Baa_Baa]

Hello everyone,
If there are no objections I can take over the 2024 NZX Comp and arrange a competition board similar to one I did for 2023. Any thoughts and ideas are welcome.
Cheers

Thank you xp04, that is a generous offer as there is a lot more work running the comp that some people realise. I am more than happy for you to take over, as Peeter has made it clear that he will not be able to continue in 2024.

[Muse]

Hello everyone,
If there are no objections I can take over the 2024 NZX Comp and arrange a competition board similar to one I did for 2023. Any thoughts and ideas are welcome.
Cheers

Thats great news! Was really impressed with your spreadsheet and if you were happy to do it it’d be well appreciated! Similar rules to last year I reckon…no less than 15m mcap coys and right issues/warrants that do not sneakily increase capital (although I suppose if we are doing it as a % increase on invested capital, not end $ total capital becomes less an issue). Be he or she that runs the comp has discretion gets dealers choice on the rules I reckon.
Thanks heaps.

[peetter]

Thanks for your efforts in 2023, I'm sure we all hope that you have an opportunity to finalise the results when the market closes.

Thank you, I'll do the final version for this year.

[peetter]

Hi everyone,

I don't want to be rude or anything like that but since I have plenty of spare time I took some liberty and created alternative competition board for 2023. Data was taken from the last spreadsheet published by peetter. The rules are similar but not exact, a bit simplified and expanded. Details could be viewed on "Info" tab of new board. This is a "LIVE" board and data is updated regularly during trading hours.
Hope it will help. Thanks.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DF8G8aB3hpp8KuYXqqGuZw7eFLpj8i5T96TfwK89Xhk/edit?usp=sharing


This is great!. Thank you.

I always wanted to spend more time and automate most of the competition, but between my job and a new kid I didn't have time to spend on it. It's great someone else will continue the competition.

[xp04]

This is great!. Thank you.

I always wanted to spend more time and automate most of the competition, but between my job and a new kid I didn't have time to spend on it. It's great someone else will continue the competition.

It's understandable. A new kid and job always should take a priority. Since I don't have neither any more :) should be able to carry on for some time.

[kiora]

Thanks XP 04
My picks 2024
IFT,MFT,AOF,SCL,MFB
Back up GEO,FPH

[xp04]

Thanks XP 04
My picks 2024
IFT,MFT,AOF,SCL,MFB
Back up GEO,FPH

This is nice. You would need to submit the Registration form https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?12818-2024-NZX-Stock-Picking-Comp

[kiora]

This is nice. You would need to submit the Registration form https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?12818-2024-NZX-Stock-Picking-Comp

Thanks XP ......

[SCOTTY]

This is nice. You would need to submit the Registration form https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?12818-2024-NZX-Stock-Picking-Comp

GEO cap only $4.4m. Is minimum cap still $15m?

[Grimy]

GEO cap only $4.4m. Is minimum cap still $15m?

xp04 has revisited company size rules and posted on the 2024 thread.

[xp04]

GEO cap only $4.4m. Is minimum cap still $15m?

I believe for 2023 minimum was $15M
For 2024 it will be $7M and GEO is not eligible

[ronaldson]

2023 competition has now concluded. Congratulations to Rocketboy for living up to his name.

213 entries. 96 closed with a positive return ( ie more than 100% at year end ) and 117 were negative ( ie less than 100% at year end ). If you had left your cash in the bank for 12 months then you might have had, say, 105% anyway, so even fewer were beating the bank rate of return. Of course the competition table includes dividend returns so it is apt to compare with a passive choice.

In short, calendar 2023 was basically a hard year for share market investors to profit.

Thanks to peetter, and now xp04.

Happy New Year everyone.

[winner69]

Where’s the leaderboard Ronaldson?

[ronaldson]

Where’s the leaderboard Ronaldson?

Click on the link available at Post 215#

[Baa_Baa]

Click on the link available at Post 215#

How do you know it is fully updated?

[ronaldson]

It's a live link and states updated just after 6.00pm yesterday (Friday). See top lefthand corner of table.

[winner69]

See “Dogs of last 2 years’ finished 5th last ….at 72.83%

MFB TSK BLT OCA PEB obviously not a good portfolio

Maybe 2024 will be their year

[Bobdn]

Rocketman got 10th last year and 2nd this year? That's an astounding performance. Congratulations

I got 13th last year (beating 95 per cent of people) and 19th this year (beating 91 per cent).

Thats about right I think. Whole market passive free loaders generally beat 95 per cent of active investors I'm guessing. It's not pretty, but it's effective.

I'll never win this competition, but I also will never sh*t the bed either. Infact, my bed sheets will be mostly in good shape.

Edit:

Pretty good interview by Tucker on passive investing:

https://youtu.be/-LYnXh3PMPQ?si=12jVQ-IlDeg55Srl

[Tomtom]

See “Dogs of last 2 years’ finished 5th last ….at 72.83%

MFB TSK BLT OCA PEB obviously not a good portfolio

Maybe 2024 will be their year This seems to be the strategy that can't win. Unicorns of the NZX might work better.

Well done to the winners. For the rest of us this is probably a great advertisement for savings accounts and term deposits.

[ronaldson]

Interestingly (for me anyway) I started in second last place at peetters first update on 23 January 2023 and never got higher than 206th place in the next five updates to 24 April.

Then I reached 199th on 19 May and eventually 154th place on 9 June. Then I got loved by the market (ERD?) and rose to 14th by 30 June and 11th by 23 July with 115.40%. With minor fluctuation after, I finally finished 11th but with just over 114%, so the last 6 months or so were marginally negative in returns.

Lucky for me it was a 12 month competition!

[peetter]

Hi All,

Here are the results for 2023. Congratulations to the winners.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZykCRo...UaYcP?e=fmtTWF (https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAKgaJuFZykCRocfRtwaCUaYcP?e=fmtTWF)


Top 10 on 01/01/2024:



Rank
Username
Pick 1:
Pick 2:
Pick 3:
Pick 4:
Pick 5:
Backup Pick:
Summary
Percentage


1
rocketboy
THL
EBO
GTK
IFT
TWR

66543.78
133.09%


2
Paul jc
TSK
NTL
OCA
GEN
PHL
RAK
62372.54
124.75%


3
Rocketman
SKL
EBO
GTK
MHJ
TWR

62158.02
124.32%


4
Wookiee
CO2
IFT
OCA
SKO
ALD

61189.49
122.38%


5
GlennS
HLG
IFT
MCY
TRA
RYM

59995.02
119.99%


6
Jay
ARV
HLG
SKT
THL
TRA

58913.22
117.83%


7
Snoopy
MCY
SCT
SKC
SPK
TRA

58873.06
117.75%


8
Mackap
AFT
MFT
VGL
SKT
TRA

58205.32
116.41%


9
Ggcc
SPY
TSK
IFT
HGH
OCA
SKL
57702.29
115.40%


10
Rawz
IKE
SPY
RAK
HLG
TRA

57301.58
114.60%

[percy]

Peetter,
Thank you for running the competition.

[Perky]

Thanks Peetter. Congrats to rocketboy…is that your dad rocketman in 3rd? Lol
Good year for the rocket family.

[Jay]

Thanks Peetter,
My best finishing position ever in this comp from memory!

[iceman]

Thanks peetter.

[winner69]

Yep, thanks peeter

[wizAlvin]

Thank you Petter

[Waiuta]

Many thanks Petter.