Predictions for 2023

[bull....]

Time to have a guess on what happens next year

my guesses

US stocks fall another 20% at some stage next year
NZ has a recession
NZ stocks have another down year
Labour lose the election
property market continues to fall

[alokdhir]

Time to have a guess on what happens next year

my guesses

US stocks fall another 20% at some stage next year
NZ has a recession
NZ stocks have another down year
Labour lose the election
property market continues to fall

NZ has recession ...technical and shallow ..imo
NZ stocks will have a small positive year after 2 down years ...imo
Labour will loose ...agree
Property market small down for the year maybe 5%

Dont have view on US markets ...20% down means it will make new lows ...50-50 ...maybe will say No to that ...

[Perky]

I predict

1. Bulls glass will remain half empty not half full
2. That Bull and sailor rob will continue their biggest swinging dick contest
3. That young bull will call out the old Bull more often

4. inflation stays higher for longer
5. shares remain volatile with quite large up and downs but little growth at year end
6. Fixed interest and old school resources like oil and gas provide best returns
7. labour loose in a landslide..jacinda does not stand for pm
8. Property market declines about another 10%
merry Xmas Bull…enjoy your perspective.

[Bobdn]

1) My prediction (well, hope) is that commodities will rip;

2) ESG funds will welcome big oil back into the fold because reasons and they did a thing that made it ok or something;

3) the fuel tax cuts are here to stay despite there being a "Climate Emergency";

4) the terms "ESG" and "Climate Emergency" will fade away during the year.

[fungus pudding]

I predict

1. Bulls glass will remain half empty not half full
2. That Bull and sailor rob will continue their biggest swinging dick contest
3. That young bull will call out the old Bull more often

4. inflation stays higher for longer
5. shares remain volatile with quite large up and downs but little growth at year end
6. Fixed interest and old school resources like oil and gas provide best returns
7. labour loose in a landslide..jacinda does not stand for pm
8. Property market declines about another 10%
merry Xmas Bull…enjoy your perspective.

Strange conflict between 4 and 8.

[troyvdh]

Residential property almightily buggered.....well over due...SM will recover from about mid 23.
Compliments of the season.

[nztx]

Strange conflict between 4 and 8.


Qwerky will be in soon with those exact trends fully adjusted, I suggest we wait and not upset
the hostess and bar service in meantime :)

Oh and a prediction:

The Aussie/Kiwi wealth gap widens to a large gulf as one side shines whilst the other
shivers in the shade :)

[Habits]

1. Inflation remains stubbornly high causing
2. Int rate kept high, causing
3. Banks to be fearful of ppty price declines. Therefore banks restrict lending further
4. Propty prices decline further
5. Economic slowdwn bites Q1, shares prices affected
6. Limited rebound in Q4 and Q1 after election is over

[warthog]

FED stops raising and reverses course by Q2 2023. NZ will be forced to do the same to keep NZD competitive, but RBNZ will use other levers to keep Kiwis getting over their skis, so after an optimistic summer bounce, property will remain flat. Equities up and down but generally sideways. Some companies will do well regardless of economy and fx.
Disc.: CNU, GEN, MCY, EBO, IFT

[carrom74]

A2 milk will rise from the dead.Prediction-$10 by the year end with strong sales in China - even an acquisition possibility there( from their pile of cash).Gaining market share( RIP abbots China).

A meagre bottom line growth in the US

Entry to Vietnam.

I am optimistic

[TheHunter]

1. NZX50 to test 10,000
2. NZ median house price to ~$700k
3. NZ new dwelling consents run rate to fall consitently back below 3k per month
4. NZ used car prices YoY change to flip negative for multiple quarters
5. Continuation of EU energy crisis
6. Telsa SP to sub $100

[Muse]

I predict 2023 will be super normal, stable, peaceful, healthy, with good social cohesion and predictable asset performance outcomes.

Just like the last 3 years.

[fungus pudding]

I predict a large mass of Kryptonite from the exploded planet, Krypton, which is heading straight for Earth, will strike Comrade Putin, all while superman is busy attending a Xmas booze up at the Daily Planet - in his Clark Kent guise, trying deparately to hook up with Lois Lane, and therfore unable to intervene.

[Leemsip]

Im in the Bull... camp.

Inflation higherer for longerer and RBNZ goes 5%+ and keeps it there

House prices down 15-20%, sales stay super low, construction slows dramatically. Unemployment stays low until H2 then hits 5% by the end of the year.

NZ sharemarket down 15-20% as the yields dont stack up in a 5% interest rate world

Coal and Oil the place to be - YAL, WDS on the ASX. Got my money where my mouth is here.

[Bjauck]

Strange conflict between 4 and 8.
No conflict. We previously had low inflation yet a surging property market. So the opposite is feasible.

Inflation is measured by the Consumer Price Index. The prices for assets are not specifically included*. So previously property prices were left to surge. As the CPI inflation rate was under the benchmark, interest rates were left low despite rapidly inflating asset prices.

*the housing component in the CPI takes into account the cost of building new houses but not the cost of the land they are built on.

[fungus pudding]

No conflict. We previously had low inflation yet a surging property market. So the opposite is feasible.



So do you think would be home buyer should be down on their knees asking Jeebers for a burst of super high inflation for Christmas?

[Brain]

My prediction is that one or more of the posters here will be partially or completely correct with their predictions.
That person or persons will be considered to be gurus by themselves and or others.I will call it luck.

[causecelebre]

1 Bull continues to be a bear
2 Alkodir continues to be a bull
3 Lemon keeps calling tradfi a ponzi
4 Balance keeps calling crypto a ponzi
5 NZ unemployment rate increases, mostly fuelled by Real Estate Agents

[partya]

1 One of the remaining Rolling Stones will put his cue in the rack.
2 Labour will lose the election.
3 Being 'woke' will fall out of fashion.
4 Wellington's cycle lanes will remain underutilised, extremely expensive and topical.
5 Immigration will increase Y.O.Y.

[Biscuit]

1. Ukraine kicks Russia out and war ends
2. Labour wins NZ election in coalition with NZFirst
3. Supply-side problems and inflation subside
4. Short, technical recession in NZ
5. Share market recovery in second half of year after poor first half

[Panda-NZ-]

1. More unpredictable weather events from climate change, causing insurance premiums to increase.
2. Inflation issues wane.
3. China has a huge corona outbreak, but are now open for business.
4. Ukraine war to continue.
5. Political instability in the world to continue to increase.

[Aaron]

1. First quarter 2023 terrible for financial assets as predicted
2. Asset prices fall (incl real estate), inflation drops
3. Central Banks reverse course to save us from deflation. Perhaps radically if the crash is significant.
4. Assets prices boom in the third and fourth quarter
5. Minor parties do surprisingly well at the elections c.f. the main two parties. Many people are angry and feel helpless/hopeless but they don't know why.

You heard it here first, great year for assets once the pivot happens, but predicting the pivot as always will be the challenge, watch CPI inflation and the level of asset price falls.

[fungus pudding]

1. First quarter 2023 terrible for financial assets as predicted
2. Asset prices fall (incl real estate), inflation drops
3. Central Banks reverse course to save us from deflation. Perhaps radically if the crash is significant.
4. Assets prices boom in the third and fourth quarter
5. Minor parties do surprisingly well at the elections c.f. the main two parties. Many people are angry and feel helpless/hopeless but they don't know why.

You heard it here first, great year for assets once the pivot happens, but predicting the pivot as always will be the challenge, watch CPI inflation and the level of asset price falls.

IOW - those planning to kick the bucket should wait till July - die wealthy.

[Aaron]

IOW - those planning to kick the bucket should wait till July - die wealthy.

Even better than that if, you plan to kick the bucket wealthy much later in the year would be better to allow time for the recovery (in prices, let us not confuse asset price inflation with growth). Maybe slip in one more Christmas in 2023 with the family as well, as you can't take your wealth with you and time with the family is also a treasure to enjoy while you're alive.

[beetills]

Keith Fitz this morning suggesting its time to get out of Bitcoin and Etheryum due to possible explosive claims about to come out of the 2 FTX people pleading guilty.

[lawson]

My predictions

1) it will be unpredictable
2) whatever I think will happen probably won't
3) it will all come out in the wash.

[warthog]

Keith Fitz this morning suggesting its time to get out of Bitcoin and Etheryum due to possible explosive claims about to come out of the 2 FTX people pleading guilty.

Not that the hog knows much about that whole thing but wouldn't some certainty be better than none?

[bottomfeeder]

Unfortunately, Putin will send a nuke to Poland on New Years day. Us retaliates, and so does france and UK. North Korea nukes South Korea, Japan and then the world ends on January 3rd. Then all our worries about the NZX and money no longer seem relevant.

[fungus pudding]

Unfortunately, Putin will send a nuke to Poland on New Years day. Us retaliates, and so does france and UK. North Korea nukes South Korea, Japan and then the world ends on January 3rd. .

Good. Leaves just enough time to cash in your shares ......

[alokdhir]

Good. Leaves just enough time to cash in your shares ......

We are too far and too inconsequential to be Nuked ...so NZ land will become safest heaven and we all will become lords if we dont get conquered and enslaved ...

Mankind is its own worst enemy and our greed and selfishness has no end ....:confused:

[fungus pudding]

Donald will be sorry he was ever born.

[troyvdh]

No he wont....that requires insight.The rational world will be sorry he was ever born.

[SailorRob]

I predict, well it's not a prediction... it's a fact;

Bull will keep on minting money from any chart, anywhere, anytime.

[Perky]

I predict

1. Bulls glass will remain half empty not half full
2. That Bull and sailor rob will continue their biggest swinging dick contest
3. That young bull will call out the old Bull more often

4. inflation stays higher for longer
5. shares remain volatile with quite large up and downs but little growth at year end
6. Fixed interest and old school resources like oil and gas provide best returns
7. labour loose in a landslide..jacinda does not stand for pm
8. Property market declines about another 10%
merry Xmas Bull…enjoy your perspective.


im on fire…think I can tick off numbers 1 and 2 already and it’s not 2023 yet.

[justakiwi]

:laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:


I predict...

2. That Bull and sailor rob will continue their biggest swinging dick contest

[SailorRob]

There is no contest.

He's publicly backed down from every bet I've challenged him to.

[Perky]

There is no contest.

He's publicly backed down from every bet I've challenged him to.

Noted.
Its possible he is a Bull with no balls to take your bets?

He does seem to give everyone a bum Steer on most stocks?

(did you see what I did there …steer is a castrated bull

[777]

I predict I still won't know where they a referring to on the TV weather reports. Both channels.

[dubya]

And I won't know what department is for roads, health, welfare, or anything else as NZ goes down this stupid woke path of dumbness to make 16% of the population feel better about themselves.

They would be better off getting out of this Island state for a while and they will see that there is a big wide world out there that doesn't give a rats as* about all things Maori.

I predict that the dumbing down of NZ will go on for a while yet.....
I predict for 2023 I still won't find one of these monsters.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/taniwha-halts-work-on-highway/L6PLP3QA2BC5HUNMMTNELTXGXI/

I've been looking for over 20 years now. I've tried to ring Transit NZ to see if any more road works have been stopped because of these monster sightings, but when I Google 'Transit NZ' I get sent to a foreign language website.

[fungus pudding]

I predict for 2023 I still won't find one of these monsters.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/taniwha-halts-work-on-highway/L6PLP3QA2BC5HUNMMTNELTXGXI/

I've been looking for over 20 years now. I've tried to ring Transit NZ to see if any more road works have been stopped because of these monster sightings, but when I Google 'Transit NZ' I get sent to a foreign language website.

Yeah - that'll be Maori. I know a couple of Maori fellas, but they can't help with that sort of thing. They only know English.

[Bjauck]

And I won't know what department is for roads, health, welfare, or anything else as NZ goes down this stupid woke path of dumbness to make 16% of the population feel better about themselves.

They would be better off getting out of this Island state for a while and they will see that there is a big wide world out there that doesn't give a rats as* about all things Maori.

I predict that the dumbing down of NZ will go on for a while yet..... The big wide world outside of Australia and NZ eats Kiwis, and couldn’t care less if they came from NZ or Aotearoa.

[davflaws]

I predict 777, BDL, FP, and a number of other posters on ST will continue to rail against the cultural changes that are demographically inevitable.

Meri Kirihimete me te tau hou.

[justakiwi]

Wow. It takes a lot to make me speechless, but that comment just might have done it.



I predict freedom of expression & freedom of speech will win the day, in fact freedom to live your life the way you choose, without harming others.

I will NOT learn Maori, I will NOT go along with this governments racist co governance agenda.

It is not inevitable at all, it is just a woke dream to make everyone think like you do. NOT going to happen.

Maori culture is just too primitive to be any long term force in the modern world, no matter how you try and dress it up.....

NZ is just getting dumber for it, and the rest of the world really doesn't care.

[RupertBear]

I predict freedom of expression & freedom of speech will win the day, in fact freedom to live your life the way you choose, without harming others.

I will NOT learn Maori, I will NOT go along with this governments racist co governance agenda.

It is not inevitable at all, it is just a woke dream to make everyone think like you do. NOT going to happen.

Maori culture is just too primitive to be any long term force in the modern world, no matter how you try and dress it up.....

NZ is just getting dumber for it, and the rest of the world really doesn't care.

Yes Fungus I should have highlighted the part of the post I personally found distasteful rather than labelling the whole post disgraceful.

Maori culture is just too primitive to be any long term force in the modern world, no matter how you try and dress it up.....

And yes each to their own opinion

Merry Christmas

[fungus pudding]

Disgraceful post

It's someones opinion. You may disagree, but that doesn't make an opinion disgraceful, or do you mean posting it is disgaceful?

[stones]

[QUOTE=fungus pudding;987027]It's someones opinion. You may disagree, but that doesn't make an opinion disgraceful, or do you mean posting it is disgaceful?[/QUOTE)

Hear hear!!!

[davflaws]

I predict freedom of expression & freedom of speech will win the day, in fact freedom to live your life the way you choose, without harming others.



It is not inevitable at all, it is just a woke dream to make everyone think like you do. NOT going to happen.

Maori culture is just too primitive to be any long term force in the modern world, no matter how you try and dress it up.....


The demographic changes are inevitable - the only choice each of us has is about how we react and respond. You have made your choice and it is your absolute right to make it and publish your opinion accordingly.

But I have some trouble believing that you know enough about Maori culture to be able to judge it.

Meri Kirihimete anyway. (understanding that bit of Te reo wasn't too hard - insidious isn't it!)

[justakiwi]

Not dramatic at all. Just me, making a conscious decision to "let it go" because nothing I say will ever help you comprehend just how obnoxious your comment, and belief is.

Plus, it's Christmas Day. A day I choose to experience joy, not anger and disdain.

You have a lovely Christmas.


That's a bit dramatic isn't it? Guess you think you are not allowed to have an opinion. Good mate for Jacinda.

[nztx]

Yeah - that'll be Maori. I know a couple of Maori fellas, but they can't help with that sort of thing. They only know English.


same here too .. I predict we'll be no further ahead in knowing about these monsters in another 5 years time with another 5 Christmas's and New Years further down the track :)

[troyvdh]

Dear BDL...That response "just too primitive" indicates you are profoundly ignorant.I could go on here....

Merry Xmas.

[nztx]

Dear BDL...That response "just too primitive" indicates you are profoundly ignorant.I could go on here....

Merry Xmas.


Dear Sir

I wonder if you could help.

I'm looking for a pair of 180 y/o + spectacles & dress for the time machine journey backwards
so I might investigate someone else's claims

I feel that it would be necessary to 'look the part' and not unnecessarily disturb the peace
or let on to the locals of that time anything about the mission.

Are you able to assist ?

Thanks in anticipation & Merry Christmas

[BDL]

Dear BDL...That response "just too primitive" indicates you are profoundly ignorant.I could go on here....

Merry Xmas.

Please enlighten us all troyvdh why you are sooooo offended.

From the Cambridge dictionary :
primitive
adjective
uk
/ˈprɪm.ɪ.tɪv/ us
/ˈprɪm.ə.t̬ɪv/
C1
relating to human society at a very early stage of development, with people living in a simple way without machines or a writing system:
Primitive races colonized these islands 2,000 years ago.
primitive man

[Ggcc]

House prices will start to rise again from their lows near the end of the year due to lack of new houses getting built.

Labour will lose another 2-3% of votes in the next poll as kiwis are starting to get frustrated with more covid news, plus all the extra stuff they keep spinning.. More likely National and Act will form a new government.

Jacinda might retire as PM (this Is hopeful thinking)

The sharemarket will rebound. Or at least my portfolio 🥳🥳🥳

[Biscuit]

.....Labour will lose another 2-3% of votes in the next poll as kiwis are starting to get frustrated with more covid news, plus all the extra stuff they keep spinning.. More likely National and Act will form a new government.

Jacinda might retire as PM (this Is hopeful thinking)....

Problem for National is Luxton is unrelatable to most New Zealanders. Another porky rich conservative Christian in a suit. Who does he remind most people of? Their boss. No one is voting for that. National is unelectable in this country as long as they are stuck in their conservative, rich, white-boy bubble. They need someone relatable like Jacinda - caring, motherly, progressive with a friendly toothy smile.

[davflaws]

Please enlighten us all troyvdh why you are sooooo offended.

From the Cambridge dictionary :
primitive
adjective
uk
/ˈprɪm.ɪ.tɪv/ us
/ˈprɪm.ə.t̬ɪv/
C1
relating to human society at a very early stage of development, with people living in a simple way without machines or a writing system:
Primitive races colonized these islands 2,000 years ago.
primitive man

NEWS FLASH:- Maori are not "living in a simple way without machines or a writing system".

[Ggcc]

Problem for National is Luxton is unrelatable to most New Zealanders. Another porky rich conservative Christian in a suit. Who does he remind most people of? Their boss. No one is voting for that. National is unelectable in this country as long as they are stuck in their conservative, rich, white-boy bubble. They need someone relatable like Jacinda - caring, motherly, progressive with a friendly toothy smile.
I agree with most of what you are saying in regards to Luxton. How ever most people I speak to just want Jacinda gone. she has mothered us for long enough.

It’s going to happen we just need to prepare for it. I’m voting for the most for their parties policies not the person.

[alokdhir]

I agree with most of what you are saying in regards to Luxton. How ever most people I speak to just want Jacinda gone. she has mothered us for long enough.

It’s going to happen we just need to prepare for it. I’m voting for the most for their parties policies not the person.

Agree it's going to be negative vote for Jacinda ...not positive vote for National ....People desperately want to get of the mess we call NZ ...its almost impossible to remain calm and live in AKL !!!

[BDL]

NEWS FLASH:- Maori are not "living in a simple way without machines or a writing system".

News news flash : They want to go back there, and take us with them.....!

[justakiwi]

"Let it go" isn't going to cut the mustard with you.

Do you even know any Maori people personally? As in actually spend time with them, getting to know them? Somehow I doubt it. You have the arrogance to make a blanket judgement about an entire race/culture of people, which is racist, whether you believe it or not. You like dictionary definitions? Well here's one for you:

racist

/ˈreɪsɪst/


adjective characterized by or showing prejudice, discrimination, or antagonism against a person or people on the basis of their membership of a particular racial or ethnic group, typically one that is a minority or marginalized
noun
a person who is prejudiced against or antagonistic towards people on the basis of their membership of a particular racial or ethnic group, typically one that is a minority or marginalized.

Your comments, beliefs and attitudes towards Maori, 100% meet the criteria, so don't kid yourself buddy. You are a racist.

What an example you are setting for your children and grandchildren. You disgust me.

Welcome to my ignore list.


News news flash : They want to go back there, and take us with them.....!

[Panda-NZ-]

House prices will start to rise again from their lows near the end of the year due to lack of new houses getting built.

Labour will lose another 2-3% of votes in the next poll as kiwis are starting to get frustrated with more covid news, plus all the extra stuff they keep spinning.. More likely National and Act will form a new government.

Jacinda might retire as PM (this Is hopeful thinking)

The sharemarket will rebound. Or at least my portfolio 拾拾拾

The rich bald guy will have to do better than John Key (who was against flawed labour leaders rather than Ardern).

Not happening. So the Maori party will decide the next govt (or NZF if they get back in).

[nztx]

The rich bald guy will have to do better than John Key (against flawed labour leaders rather than Ardern).

Not happening. So the Maori party will decide the next govt (or NZF if they get back in).


Landslide away from Labour & pixies at the bottom of the garden (as I'm hearing on the street) is my prediction :)

Let's face it - recent attempts by Labour to get legislation of the poorest standard through has made them a laughing stock .. just can't spin it any other way :)

[RupertBear]

More than happy to be on your "ignore" list.

No doubt it's probably quite long, with your narrow minded, ignorant take on life.

Maybe you should aspire to be more than "justakiwi" and widen you world view a bit.

WOW do you even know anything about Justakiwi’s life? Because if you did you would know she is not narrow minded and definitely does not have an ignorant take on life. And I would also be pretty confident that she does in fact have a wide view of the world. She ain't no spring (like a number of us) and I know for a fact she has a ton of life experiences which she has generously shared with many of us over the years. Her OCA posts are well respected and they come from a place of hands on personal experience. So before you rubbish someones life when you clearly know nothing about them take a step back and perhaps take heed of her point of view. We all come from a different place and we can all get a glimpse of other peoples lives if we sit back and listen.

[Rawz]

Can someone share a photo of the broker picks?

Merry Christmas Sharetraders

[Brain]

Can someone share a photo of the broker picks?

Merry Christmas Sharetraders

Nah no point . If a broker picks a share correctly it is just plain luck. They are no more reliable than economists.

[Rawz]

Nah no point . If a broker picks a share correctly it is just plain luck. They are no more reliable than economists.
Just curious. Remember last year when all the brokers picked HGH and then everyone bid it up to $2.60 lol

Wondering if there is another train to catch??

[troyvdh]

Dear brain.I totally agree.
nztx and BDL ...can I suggest before posting your racist remarks...Please reconsider ....there maybe ramifications.
I and I hope most others consider them very distasteful ignorant ....

[ithaka]

Can someone share a photo of the broker picks?

Merry Christmas Sharetraders
Here it is
14386

[Rawz]

Here it is
14386

Cheers, a very defensive feel to it

[ralph]

Well, she was pretty quick to have a go at me and my "racist" views, in her, I would say, narrow minded opinion. Quick to point out how wrong I was, and how she knows better. How I don't know any Maori. (ridiculous) as I have Maori in my family.

People are just too offended these days. I think it makes them feel important and part of the "in, woke crowd". How knowledgable they are. (not) Everyone who doesn't agree with them is racist and has no right to an opinion. This suits this government, and Maori, as they can then push their own racist agenda themselves.

Be very careful B D L !!with just a k !! , got the Beagle One of the better posters banned she obviously has influence in Court of the woke

[na2m1]

Wow. You are definitely one interesting specimen BDL. I would definitely be glad if you are banned.

[ralph]

Cheers, a very defensive feel to it
Agree apart from the Oceania fobar

[justakiwi]

Yeah right! Beagle didn't need any help from me. He managed that all by himself.

You're hilarious :laugh:

Here ya go. Have a rep vote, for the most entertaining post of the day :t_up:


Be very careful B D L !!with just a k !! , got the Beagle One of the better posters banned she obviously has influence in Court of the woke

[alokdhir]

Agree apart from the Oceania fobar

Last year FB had ARV ...see what happened to it ...

[alokdhir]

Just curious. Remember last year when all the brokers picked HGH and then everyone bid it up to $2.60 lol

Wondering if there is another train to catch??

Tourism Holdings is a very common like HGH last year ...your train ride ....IFT / EBO are evergreen ...more slow trains ... Contact !!

[nztx]

Dear brain.I totally agree.
nztx and BDL ...can I suggest before posting your racist remarks...Please reconsider ....there maybe ramifications.
I and I hope most others consider them very distasteful ignorant ....

Nothing racist posted by me in this thread - get your facts right :)

[Cottagestyles]

News news flash : They want to go back there, and take us with them.....!

Staggeringly racist comments lately BDL... pull your head in! Sharetrader generally has some argy bargy and posters that are taken with a grain of salt, but the sort of trash you're spouting on the NZX thread has no place here.

[Rawz]

Too much ham and trifle.. can’t sleep.. interesting no MFT in the broker picks, guess it will carry on in its downtrend

[alokdhir]

Too much ham and trifle.. can’t sleep.. interesting no MFT in the broker picks, guess it will carry on in its downtrend

No HGH also like last year's favourite ...maybe they dont expect it to recover like many here do ...last year they expected it to run and it tanked ...now it may actually do better ...that was an defensive pick unlike MFT etc but still even Jarden didnt found it suitable enough ...funny

[nztx]

No HGH also like last year's favourite ...maybe they dont expect it to recover like many here do ...last year they expected it to run and it tanked ...now it may actually do better ...that was an defensive pick unlike MFT etc but still even Jarden didnt found it suitable enough ...funny


A bit difficult trying to pick NZX outperformers going forward when the overall market is showing a slide
perhaps on back of economic storm clouds, inflation, interest rates and other pressures ahead

Anyone for getting out the dartboard and trying a few New Year's blindfold tricks for 2023 ? ;)

[clearasmud]

Just buy quality on sale lol.

[Balance]

Crypto extinction underway :

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-extinction-peter-schiff-predicted-140000434.html

Inflection point for markets sometime in 2023?

[Rawz]

A bit difficult trying to pick NZX outperformers going forward when the overall market is showing a slide
perhaps on back of economic storm clouds, inflation, interest rates and other pressures ahead

Anyone for getting out the dartboard and trying a few New Year's blindfold tricks for 2023 ? ;)
Can only be two picks. Two stocks that have shown huge growth in 2021 and are on track to continue this growth.

These stocks benefit from inflation and changing trends. These two nzx stocks both hit cash flow positive or even sneaked in a profit last year

Both are still small caps too:

IKE
SPY

[whatsup]

Can only be two picks. Two stocks that have shown huge growth in 2021 and are on track to continue this growth.

These stocks benefit from inflation and changing trends. These two nzx stocks both hit cash flow positive or even sneaked in a profit last year

Both are still small caps too:

IKE
SPY

CRP one from me.

[justakiwi]

IKE - absolutely.


Can only be two picks. Two stocks that have shown huge growth in 2021 and are on track to continue this growth.

These stocks benefit from inflation and changing trends. These two nzx stocks both hit cash flow positive or even sneaked in a profit last year

Both are still small caps too:

IKE
SPY

[peat]

Predict the market hold steady at approximately these levels in general, but OCA goes to $.50

[Rawz]

Predict the market hold steady at approximately these levels in general, but OCA goes to $.50

How do you arrive at that valuation?

[justakiwi]

He didn’t. Just plucked it out of thin air.


How do you arrive at that valuation?

[Rawz]

He didn’t. Just plucked it out of thin air.
Peat’s one of the best posters on here, I’m sure there is a method to the madness of 50cents lol

[justakiwi]

If you say so ;)


Peat’s one of the best posters on here, I’m sure there is a method to the madness of 50cents lol

[clearasmud]

If you say so ;)

Let me guess Justakiwi.
You have a 75% success rate and have made millions.

[justakiwi]

Only in my dreams, but I don’t see OCA getting to 50c. If it does I’ll be happy to apologise to Peat, while backing up the truck to add more.


Let me guess Justakiwi.
You have a 75% success rate and have made millions.

[Panda-NZ-]

Like RYM can 't get to 5 bucks

I was a champion of RYM and I'm not afraid to admit it.

Went from #9 to #30 in the NZX comp because of it.

[justakiwi]

Ryman has been overvalued for years. I don’t think one could say the same for OCA.


Like RYM can 't get to 5 bucks

I was a champion of RYM and I'm not afraid to admit it.

Went from #9 to #30 in the NZX comp because of it.

[Rawz]

Like RYM can 't get to 5 bucks

I was a champion of RYM and I'm not afraid to admit it.

Went from #9 to #30 in the NZX comp because of it.

Had a similar story with one of my picks last year- HMY.

Went from #190 to #230

[bull....]

rampant covid in china dragging down there growth

[alokdhir]

rampant covid in china dragging down there growth

Is it good for FPH then ???

[GTM 3442]

I have two predictions for the NZX in 2023. The background to both is that 2023 is an election year. The predictions are complementary but mutually exclusive. I am preparing for both.



1) the NZX50 will bottom out at around 8,000 - itchy trigger finger on the "sell" button

2) the NZX50 will peak at about 14,000 - itchy trigger finger on the "buy" button

[justakiwi]

My only prediction is that IKE will continue to post excellent results, and the share price will finally be back over $1 after the next results announcement. By May, when the F22 results are announced, the share price will be higher, and we will not see sub $1 again anytime soon.

[Rawz]

My only prediction is that IKE will continue to post excellent results, and the share price will finally be back over $1 after the next results announcement. By May, when the F22 results are announced, the share price will be higher, and we will not see sub $1 again anytime soon.
IKE probably get a takeover offer in 2023 and it will be another great NZ company swallowed up by a giant international company.

Sadly we won’t get to see it in all its glory

[justakiwi]

That would be gutting. I don't know how takeovers work, but I would hope IKE and shareholders would vote against any takeover bid. Does that ever happen?


IKE probably get a takeover offer in 2023 and it will be another great NZ company swallowed up by a giant international company.

Sadly we won’t get to see it in all its glory

[SailorRob]

That would be gutting. I don't know how takeovers work, but I would hope IKE and shareholders would vote against any takeover bid. Does that ever happen?


It would be an absolute abomination but quite possible.

Sometimes they vote against, but what happens is the fools that don't understand the real value will do anything at all to 'get their money back' and will jump at the chance to give the company away for $1.30.

With OCA the directors having skin in and being sophisticated investors they should have more sense and would recommend against.

[justakiwi]

I like to think the IKE directors would do the same. IKE and OCA are my biggest holdings, and the two I am most confident about for the long term. I would most definitely vote against a takeover bid, for both of them. I like the fact that I own a very small part of these companies. I would be so pissed if a takeover ever took away my opportunity to be part of these companies for the foreseeable future.


It would be an absolute abomination but quite possible.

Sometimes they vote against, but what happens is the fools that don't understand the real value will do anything at all to 'get their money back' and will jump at the chance to give the company away for $1.30.

With OCA the directors having skin in and being sophisticated investors they should have more sense and would recommend against.

[RTM]

It abomination but quite possible.


With OCA the directors having skin in and being sophisticated investors they should have more sense and would recommend against.

Just checking SailorRob, you really have that kind of confidence in the OCA Directors ?
Personally I don’t.

[percy]

Just checking SailorRob, you really have that kind of confidence in the OCA Directors ?
Personally I don’t.

Well you have done well investing in EBO and SKL with Liz Coutts on the boards [Chair].
And Greg Tomlinson has served you well on HGH board.

[Muse]

Not a prediction - but my greatest fear in 2023…which isn’t rising interest rates, or falling house prices, or subsequent recession (whether deep or shallow).

My biggest fear for the equity markets is the potential scenario where republicans once they take control of the house of representatives in the united states decline to raise the debt ceiling (done several times a year since forever), and if the usa got close to default the global repercussions would be deep and could last for years. Reckon its a plausible risk that is totally overlooked and would be a disaster for all asset classes. Fingers crossed the moderates prevail.

PS Happy New Years to all!

[davflaws]

Not a prediction - but my greatest fear in 2023…which isn’t rising interest rates, or falling house prices, or subsequent recession (whether deep or shallow).

My biggest fear for the equity markets is the potential scenario where republicans once they take control of the house of representatives in the united states decline to raise the debt ceiling (done several times a year since forever), and if the usa got close to default the global repercussions would be deep and could last for years. Reckon its a plausible risk that is totally overlooked and would be a disaster for all asset classes. Fingers crossed the moderates prevail.

PS Happy New Years to all!

I understand the Omnibus Bill recently passed with bipartisan support raised the debt ceiling for another year.

[Panda-NZ-]

I understand the Omnibus Bill recently passed with bipartisan support raised the debt ceiling for another year.

They would need all of their side to vote against a ceiling raise.. Kevin doesn't have enough votes to be speaker so not a concern. They won't have the votes.

Even more of an outrage though, is most of them voted against $100b in ukraine aid but previously thought $2T on Iraq and afghanistan to fight some guys in second hand trucks was a good idea.

[winner69]

I think Sailor Rob is a Taurean so he’s in for a good year

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/will-you-be-lucky-in-love-and-money-this-year-your-2023-horoscope/WYOZZP4ULBEENB7QVDTK24CUFM/

[SailorRob]

Just checking SailorRob, you really have that kind of confidence in the OCA Directors ?
Personally I don’t.


Yes absolutely. They are owners first and directors second.

Large amounts of skin in the game is everything.

show me the incentives and I'll show you the outcome.

Now the last thing you want are 'independent directors'


Despite the illogic of it all, the director for whom fees are important – indeed, craved – is almost universallyclassified as “independent” while many directors possessing fortunes very substantially linked to the welfare of thecorporation are deemed lacking in independence. Not long ago, I looked at the proxy material of a large Americancompany and found that eight directors had never purchased a share of the company’s stock using their own money.(They, of course, had received grants of stock as a supplement to their generous cash compensation.) This particularcompany had long been a laggard, but the directors were doing wonderfully.Paid-with-my-own-money ownership, of course, does not create wisdom or ensure business smarts.

[SailorRob]

Not a prediction - but my greatest fear in 2023…which isn’t rising interest rates, or falling house prices, or subsequent recession (whether deep or shallow).

My biggest fear for the equity markets is the potential scenario where republicans once they take control of the house of representatives in the united states decline to raise the debt ceiling (done several times a year since forever), and if the usa got close to default the global repercussions would be deep and could last for years. Reckon its a plausible risk that is totally overlooked and would be a disaster for all asset classes. Fingers crossed the moderates prevail.

PS Happy New Years to all!


Zero risk of the USA defaulting.

Grandstanding could cause some ruffles but nothing major.

Check out what happened to the UD dollar and US assets when the USA had its first credit rating downgrade in 2011.

They skyrocketed. Understanding why is pretty important.

[justakiwi]

I've often wondered about this. I assume independent directors "became a thing" to hold non-independent directors accountable?

I see no problem with having one or two independent directors, but like you, I prefer to see directors with significant skin in the game.


Yes absolutely. They are owners first and directors second.

Large amounts of skin in the game is everything.

show me the incentives and I'll show you the outcome.

Now the last thing you want are 'independent directors'


Despite the illogic of it all, the director for whom fees are important – indeed, craved – is almost universallyclassified as “independent” while many directors possessing fortunes very substantially linked to the welfare of thecorporation are deemed lacking in independence. Not long ago, I looked at the proxy material of a large Americancompany and found that eight directors had never purchased a share of the company’s stock using their own money.(They, of course, had received grants of stock as a supplement to their generous cash compensation.) This particularcompany had long been a laggard, but the directors were doing wonderfully.Paid-with-my-own-money ownership, of course, does not create wisdom or ensure business smarts.

[SailorRob]

I've often wondered about this. I assume independent directors "became a thing" to hold non-independent directors accountable?

I see no problem with having one or two independent directors, but like you, I prefer to see directors with significant skin in the game.


The point was that the 'independent directors' are exactly the opposite as they require the director fees to make a living and want to get more directorships on more boards, so they are like performing seals to the CEO and don't give a damn about shareholders.

An independent director is supposed to be there to look after the shareholder interests, particularly minority ones.

So a director who owns half the company and has borrowed the money to do so, and their entire financial future rides on the success of the business deemed less independent than the next director who gets paid 100k and that's his whole income and he's desperate for another 100k board position.

The independent who is getting the 100k will do whatever the CEO says.

A full explanation here on page 12 'Boards of Directors' https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2019ltr.pdf (https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2019ltr.pdf)

[justakiwi]

Thanks for this! Very interesting.

Is there a "requirement" for NZ companies to have at least one independent director? Or is this simply something companies have adopted as a way to appear more "transparent?"

I'm going to have another look at the companies I hold, just out of interest, to see what their director "make up" is. Something I look at when I first invest, but seldom look at again.




A full explanation here on page 12 'Boards of Directors' https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2019ltr.pdf (https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2019ltr.pdf)

[winner69]

Thanks for this! Very interesting.

Is there a "requirement" for NZ companies to have at least one independent director? Or is this simply something companies have adopted as a way to appear more "transparent?"

I'm going to have another look at the companies I hold, just out of interest, to see what their director "make up" is. Something I look at when I first invest, but seldom look at again.

For NZX listing - A minimum of three directors / At least two directors must be ordinarily resident in New Zealand / At least two directors must be “Independent directors”. It is recommended that this is a majority

[SailorRob]

Thanks for this! Very interesting.

Is there a "requirement" for NZ companies to have at least one independent director? Or is this simply something companies have adopted as a way to appear more "transparent?"

I'm going to have another look at the companies I hold, just out of interest, to see what their director "make up" is. Something I look at when I first invest, but seldom look at again.


Yeah so as an example, all the years I worked for NZ Refining company, only once or twice any of the directors had any shares at all, and even then only a few.

So for absolutely sure our independent directors were as Buffett is talking about, they had no interest nor money invested in the company, it was just a job they did for some pocket money. The last thing they ever wanted to do was question management or rock the boat.

This is why I like the OCA board so much.

[justakiwi]

Wow. I'm ok with an independent or two, but I wouldn't be ok with a majority of independents. That's nuts.


For NZX listing - A minimum of three directors / At least two directors must be ordinarily resident in New Zealand / At least two directors must be “Independent directors”. It is recommended that this is a majority

[winner69]

Question - say OCA wanted to compromise care standards for the sake of making more money whose going to ‘represent’ the customers …without money being the key driver …ie being independent.

There is a school of though that a Director can only be ‘truly independent’ if they have no share holding in the company ..ie not swayed by what’s in for me thinking

[justakiwi]

So I am confused now. What's the difference between a non-executive director, and an independent director. OCA lists all seven directors as "Independent" - I don't get that.


Question - say OCA wanted to compromise care standards for the sake of making more money whose going to ‘represent’ the customers …without money being the key driver …ie being independent.

There is a school of though that a Director can only be ‘truly independent’ if they have no share holding in the company ..ie not swayed by what’s in for me thinking

[winner69]

So I am confused now. What's the difference between a non-executive director, and an independent director. OCA lists all seven directors as "Independent" - I don't get that.


Non executive means they aren’t employed (as part of the executive team).often the CEO / Managing Director is on the Boards ..ie not Independent.

all OCA directors are deemed to be Independent by OCA Board using NZX guidelines

All OCA Directors own shares …even Tomlinson who owns 3% of the company

There are many criteria that defines what’s Independent.

So my question about OCA compromising care to make more money …whose acting for clients

[percy]

Non executive means they aren’t employed by OCA (as part of the executive team).often the CEO / Managing Director is on Boards ..ie not Independent.

They are deemed to be Independent by OCA Board using NZX guidelines

All OCA Directors own shares …even Tomlinson who owns 3% of the company

There are many criteria that defines what’s Independent.

So my question about compromising care to make more money …whose acting for clients

If you give people what they want, you will get what you want.
So should any company compromise care,service or product,clients/customers will avoid that company.
Word gets around very quickly.
RYM set the standard all village operators have to match or try to improve on.

[FTG]

Question - say OCA wanted to compromise care standards for the sake of making more money whose going to ‘represent’ the customers …without money being the key driver …ie being independent.

There is a school of though that a Director can only be ‘truly independent’ if they have no share holding in the company ..ie not swayed by what’s in for me thinking

You pose a great question Winner, and one which arguably could/should be asked of any company with multiple & disparate Directors & Shareholders (who each have their own ST & LT desired outcomes). It is often the dilemma for Board's & SMT's, especially during challenging times. "Do we invest for the long term results, or do we go for the alluring 'sugar-hit' results today"?

IMO when you distill that question down further, what one is really asking is, "what is the mandated LT vision/strategy/mission of the company and is it clearly articulated and hence understood & embraced by the Shareholders, Board and SMT"? This of course starts talking to the culture/ethos of the company.

Whether the Directors, SMT & Shareholders are one and the same or not, isn't so critical, as long as all those stakeholders in the Waka, are actually paddling in the same direction! To use another cliche, are they all in for the Marathon, or are some of the paddlers only wanting a quick sprint?

So coming back to the question, "what if the company wanted to compromise care standards to boost ST revenue and/or profit", I would suggest that all GREAT companies have a customer-centric culture. Focus on not only satisfying customers' wants & needs, but exceeding customer expectations (for both present & future customers), and profitability will pretty much take care of itself.

The tempting fruits (but which are actually rotten to the core) of compromising care standards doesn't appear to even be in OCA's field of vision......So yes, maybe OCA has some of the right DNA (including personally invested Director's) to be a GREAT company!

[SailorRob]

Question - say OCA wanted to compromise care standards for the sake of making more money whose going to ‘represent’ the customers …without money being the key driver …ie being independent.

There is a school of though that a Director can only be ‘truly independent’ if they have no share holding in the company ..ie not swayed by what’s in for me thinking


Ok I don't mean to be rude but here you are displaying a total lack of understanding of how the entire system works.

Money is the measuring stick for how resources are commanded in an economy for the best value created for the customers.

To make more money means that you are making more goods and services that are desired and valuable to the customer.

The more money a business makes then the better they are using resources to satisfy the demands of society.

Billionaires are wealthy as they have made something that has made a lot of lives a lot better.

Compromising care standards may make more money for a very short period of time but will destroy the value of the company by a lot more, so not in the interests of any owner.

The customers are represented by their wallets.

This all assumes a fair and well regulated playing field and countless examples of how money making can be at the expense of society, but not generally and definitely not in this case.

Money IS the key driver. This is the entire point. You make money by doing good things. Not bad.

[SailorRob]

You pose a great question Winner, and one which arguably could/should be asked for any company with multiple & disparate Directors & Shareholders (who each have their own ST & LT desired outcomes). It is often the dilemma for Board's & SMT's, especially during challenging times. "Do we invest for the long term results, or do we go for the alluring 'sugar-hit' results today"?

IMO when you distill that question down further, what one is really asking is, "what is the mandated LT vision/strategy/mission of the company and is it clearly articulated and hence understood & embraced by the Shareholders, Board and SMT"? This of course starts talking to the culture/ethos of the company.

Whether the Directors, SMT & Shareholders are one and the same or not, isn't so critical, as long as all those stakeholders in the Waka, are actually paddling in the same direction! To use another cliche, are they all in for the Marathon, or are some of the paddlers only wanting a quick sprint?

So coming back to the question, "what if the company wanted to compromise care standards to boost ST revenue and/or profit", I would suggest that all GREAT companies have a customer-centric culture. Focus on not only satisfying customers' wants & needs, but exceeding customer expectations (for both present & future customers), and profitability will pretty much take care of itself.

The tempting fruits (but which are actually rotten to the core) of compromising care standards doesn't appear to even be in OCA's field of vision......So yes, maybe OCA has the right DNA (including personally invested Director's) to be a GREAT company!


Well said yep.

[winner69]

Independence per se is a key fundamental if there’s more than just maximising shareholder value …like the need to manage a broader set of priorities that take into account the interests of all stakeholders including employees, customers, the local community and the environment.

[SailorRob]

Independence per se is a key fundamental if there’s more than just maximising shareholder value …like the need to manage a broader set of priorities that take into account the interests of all stakeholders including employees, customers, the local community and the environment.


The red is how you maximise shareholder value over the long term.

[justakiwi]

Absolutely. Especially in the RV/Aged Care sector.


The red is how you maximise shareholder value over the long term.

[justakiwi]

Excellent post. OCA will never compromise care standards. Providing quality care has always been, and still is, their primary focus and they are all on the same page. The same can be said for IKE in my opinion.

Great discussion and really interesting, but perhaps we could create a new thread as we have taken this one well off topic. Just a suggestion.


You pose a great question Winner, and one which arguably could/should be asked for any company with multiple & disparate Directors & Shareholders (who each have their own ST & LT desired outcomes). It is often the dilemma for Board's & SMT's, especially during challenging times. "Do we invest for the long term results, or do we go for the alluring 'sugar-hit' results today"?

IMO when you distill that question down further, what one is really asking is, "what is the mandated LT vision/strategy/mission of the company and is it clearly articulated and hence understood & embraced by the Shareholders, Board and SMT"? This of course starts talking to the culture/ethos of the company.

Whether the Directors, SMT & Shareholders are one and the same or not, isn't so critical, as long as all those stakeholders in the Waka, are actually paddling in the same direction! To use another cliche, are they all in for the Marathon, or are some of the paddlers only wanting a quick sprint?

So coming back to the question, "what if the company wanted to compromise care standards to boost ST revenue and/or profit", I would suggest that all GREAT companies have a customer-centric culture. Focus on not only satisfying customers' wants & needs, but exceeding customer expectations (for both present & future customers), and profitability will pretty much take care of itself.

The tempting fruits (but which are actually rotten to the core) of compromising care standards doesn't appear to even be in OCA's field of vision......So yes, maybe OCA has the right DNA (including personally invested Director's) to be a GREAT company!

[nztx]

Another Prediction:

ASX will grab more listings off NZX in the coming year

After all NZX appears to be closed, fast ASLEEP today, while ASX are wide awake, OPEN and Trading :)


Mind you .. nothing much might be missed today on NZX with it not being open in the current climate :)

[Southern Lad]

After all NZX appears to be closed, fast ASLEEP today, while ASX are wide awake, OPEN and Trading

Not surprising that the ASX was open today given that the day after New Years Day is not a public holiday in Australia whereas it is in New Zealand.

[Baa_Baa]

Predictions for 2023?

We have rapidly gone from everything being over priced, to many companies being undervalued. I predict 2023 will be the year that is the best since the bottom of the GFC to buy undervalued companies shares.

[nztx]

Predictions for 2023?

We have rapidly gone from everything being over priced, to many companies being undervalued. I predict 2023 will be the year that is the best since the bottom of the GFC to buy undervalued companies shares.

undervalued or in danger of even greater slippage as times tighten and interest yields get hatcheted up
at the whim of Orr-man who will be seeking to drag net back in Robbo's Covid excesses ? ;)

As loose money gets hovered up, more pain gets inflicted around the goldfish bowl and yesterday's undervalued could become tomorrow's really too expensive / overpriced - which a reduced audience then have little if any interest in having a piece of ;)

the liquidators & receivers only generally have a field day in the times soon to be upon us ; amidst
wholesale firesales of bits & pieces of the victims that fall over for one reason or another ..

Don't we usually see a boom & bust cycle with the current mob in the stalls ? .. guess what is likely to come next ;)

Why buy a steal tomorrow when an even juicier one could happen a few weeks away, while the clowns in Wellington still dream around their Beehive Offices not recognising the obvious on what is approaching as a result of their policies and global influences converging :)

The smartest money is long gone out of the goldfish bowl before or not long after the tide has turned from the high water mark :)

That is why local markets are drifting , every sector has just about been given a bollicking by our clueless Govt clowns already .. has anyone not seen that ? :)

[Baa_Baa]

undervalued or in danger of even greater slippage as times tighten and interest yields get hatcheted up

Enjoy the "wall of worry", a whole year is long enough for the patient to make their decisions.

[nztx]

Enjoy the "wall of worry", a whole year is long enough for the patient to make their decisions.


more like 2-3 years ahead before light at the end of the tunnel while the Wellington front bench huddle continue their clueless destructive blundering tenure on a path to achieving very little in 2023.

Seen anything positive recently or even mildly inspiring from Orr-man, Robbo or the head Spinner - looking ahead ? ;)

[Baa_Baa]

more like 2-3 years ahead before light at the end of the tunnel while the Wellington front bench huddle continue their clueless destructive blundering tenure on a path to achieving very little in 2023.

Seen anything positive recently or even mildly inspiring from Orr-man, Robbo or the head Spinner - looking ahead ? ;)

I'm more concerned with looking at the listed companies performance, regardless of whatever political party is in power, or the state of the economy.
;)

[nztx]

I'm more concerned with looking at the listed companies performance, regardless of whatever political party is in power, or the state of the economy.
;)


So am I .. so much so I believe that safest bet is far far away from NZX and captive subjects drifting around
the small gold fish bowl in times of extreme turbulence & Political cluelessness :)

What could possibly go wrong .. or for that matter right ? ;)

With so many signals pointing south .. that must be interpreted for what it is likely to bestow

[SailorRob]

undervalued or in danger of even greater slippage as times tighten and interest yields get hatcheted up
at the whim of Orr-man who will be seeking to drag net back in Robbo's Covid excesses ? ;)

As loose money gets hovered up, more pain gets inflicted around the goldfish bowl and yesterday's undervalued could become tomorrow's really too expensive / overpriced - which a reduced audience then have little if any interest in having a piece of ;)

the liquidators & receivers only generally have a field day in the times soon to be upon us ; amidst
wholesale firesales of bits & pieces of the victims that fall over for one reason or another ..

Don't we usually see a boom & bust cycle with the current mob in the stalls ? .. guess what is likely to come next ;)

Why buy a steal tomorrow when an even juicier one could happen a few weeks away, while the clowns in Wellington still dream around their Beehive Offices not recognising the obvious on what is approaching as a result of their policies and global influences converging :)

The smartest money is long gone out of the goldfish bowl before or not long after the tide has turned from the high water mark :)

That is why local markets are drifting , every sector has just about been given a bollicking by our clueless Govt clowns already .. has anyone not seen that ? :)


Hi nztx, could you please provide us with the details of this 'smartest money', who or which managers etc... I'd be very grateful to be told who they are so I can check out their performance records which will, I assure you, be absolutely stunning.

As they have the ability to be long gone out of the fishbowl just before or just after the peak, and obviously they haven't just done this, this one time, they will have outperformed the market indexes by a huge margin. After all they don't need to do anything else, just be in the market until just before the tide turns and then step off presumably into cash.

I spend a lot of time and make a hell of a lot of money studying the actions of the 'smart money' but I haven't come across these folk you speak of so I'd be happy to pay you a 5 figure finders fee if you can point me in the right direction.

Thanks,

SailorRob.

[BDL]

Hi nztx, could you please provide us with the details of this 'smartest money', who or which managers etc... I'd be very grateful to be told who they are so I can check out their performance records which will, I assure you, be absolutely stunning.

As they have the ability to be long gone out of the fishbowl just before or just after the peak, and obviously they haven't just done this, this one time, they will have outperformed the market indexes by a huge margin. After all they don't need to do anything else, just be in the market until just before the tide turns and then step off presumably into cash.

I spend a lot of time and make a hell of a lot of money studying the actions of the 'smart money' but I haven't come across these folk you speak of so I'd be happy to pay you a 5 figure finders fee if you can point me in the right direction.

Thanks,

SailorRob.

The peak was nearly 2yrs ago for the NZX and it has been drifting lower ever since.

No need to predict anything.

[SailorRob]

The peak was nearly 2yrs ago for the NZX and it has been drifting lower ever since.

No need to predict anything.


Sorry, you've lost me there. What are you saying?

[BDL]

Sorry, you've lost me there. What are you saying?

I'm saying, no one is claiming to "predict" the market, as you assume, they are just observing what is going on over time.

[FTG]

Primary prediction: Before the year is out there will be either a 'significant event' (Black Swan?), or a 'culmination of circumstances', that central banks & Poli's use to justify, yet again, reverting back to QE/MMT/'Sugar Hit' policy settings.

Secondary prediction: Before the year is out, but more likely within the next 6 months, most Sharemarkets across the globe (including EM's) will mark significant lows. From those lows, and contrary to how most currently expect things to flow, a LARGE bull market will commence (NB. at least in nominal terms, not necessarily intrinsic value).

[nztx]

Hi nztx, could you please provide us with the details of this 'smartest money', who or which managers etc... I'd be very grateful to be told who they are so I can check out their performance records which will, I assure you, be absolutely stunning.

As they have the ability to be long gone out of the fishbowl just before or just after the peak, and obviously they haven't just done this, this one time, they will have outperformed the market indexes by a huge margin. After all they don't need to do anything else, just be in the market until just before the tide turns and then step off presumably into cash.

I spend a lot of time and make a hell of a lot of money studying the actions of the 'smart money' but I haven't come across these folk you speak of so I'd be happy to pay you a 5 figure finders fee if you can point me in the right direction.

Thanks,

SailorRob.


SailorRob

With regret they appear to have made themselves invisible - difficult to trace or identify something that isn't there
or to surmise where they might have been expected to be, had the market have been showing better signs

Anyone seen any of the large US institutions or funds doing forays into our market of late ?

The likes of the Power Companies - Contact etc as seen in the past ?

I'm not sure if the domestic large fish having small nibbles here and there could be qualified as the smartest
money in times when things are retreating either, but could be wrong .. who knows.

There might be a bit of risk analysis going on, with more of the purse allocated into other markets
or overseas away from the inherent local risk factors and economic conditions ..

How else would reducing SP's in the local goldfish bowl, limited activity and general doom
and gloom on back of Orr-Man's & Robbo's gloom filled 'there will be higher interest rates and
there is large evil inflation present, save your money, don't spend' efforts be explained ? :)

[SailorRob]

SailorRob

With regret they appear to have made themselves invisible - difficult to trace or identify something that isn't there
or to surmise where they might have been expected to be, had the market have been showing better signs

Anyone seen any of the large US institutions or funds doing forays into our market of late ?

The likes of the Power Companies - Contact etc as seen in the past ?

I'm not sure if the domestic large fish having small nibbles here and there could be qualified as the smartest
money in times when things are retreating either, but could be wrong .. who knows.

There might be a bit of risk analysis going on, with more of the purse allocated into other markets
or overseas away from the inherent local risk factors and economic conditions ..

How else would reducing SP's in the local goldfish bowl, limited activity and general doom
and gloom on back of Orr-Man's & Robbo's gloom filled 'there will be higher interest rates and
there is large evil inflation present, save your money, don't spend' efforts be explained ? :)


Hang on, hasn't the NZ market dramatically outperformed the US market during this Bear?

So Smart money retreating may actually have been in hindsight very stupid. Had they hung around they would have had incredible relative results.

[SailorRob]

I'm saying, no one is claiming to "predict" the market, as you assume, they are just observing what is going on over time.


Right, so they're observing the future from the past and making decisions based on this. Sounds good.

I think the implications of the Smart money exiting just before and at the top as suggested, are that they saw what was coming.

[alokdhir]

Right, so they're observing the future from the past and making decisions based on this. Sounds good.

I think the implications of the Smart money exiting just before and at the top as suggested, are that they saw what was coming.

Many saw that coming when Inflation became problem ....many here also went big on Cash in early 2022 ...basically Jan 2022 ...W69 will vouch for that

When interest rate cycle was ready to flip it was simple for many traders to get out and go in waiting mode ...Mr B is another example ....

[nztx]

Hang on, hasn't the NZ market dramatically outperformed the US market during this Bear?

So Smart money retreating may actually have been in hindsight very stupid. Had they hung around they would have had incredible relative results.


Are you sure ?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/29/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html


Stocks fall to end Wall Street’s worst year since 2008, S&P 500 finishes 2022 down nearly 20%


https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/stock-market

New Zealand Stock Market (NZX 500

Looks roughly like DOWN 9% or 10% to me


Don't know that I would call the comparison an outperform very loudly when both have bled a lot of red ;)

The smart money may well have seen the trend and likely rode the slide by shorting it :)

[SailorRob]

Are you sure ?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/29/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html




https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/stock-market

New Zealand Stock Market (NZX 500

Looks roughly like DOWN 9% or 10% to me


Don't know that I would call the comparison an outperform very loudly when both have bled a lot of red ;)

The smart money may well have seen the trend and likely rode the slide by shorting it :)


I am extremely sure.

[SailorRob]

Many saw that coming when Inflation became problem ....many here also went big on Cash in early 2022 ...basically Jan 2022 ...W69 will vouch for that

When interest rate cycle was ready to flip it was simple for many traders to get out and go in waiting mode ...Mr B is another example ....


Everything is so simple for these legends.

Consistent massive outperformance for them and so easily, not hard to see how they're all so wealthy.

[nztx]

I am extremely sure.


I'm extreme sure that keeping the dough in the bank - even on no interest may have produced a better outcome

ie: Not out the back door by 20% on US indices, nor out the back door by say 10% on NZX

For those a bit more adventurous could have pulled more outperform gain out of shorting the trend
rather than doing nothing or suffering a minus outperform and shower of red for the privilege :)

[SailorRob]

I'm extreme sure that keeping the dough in the bank - even on no interest may have produced a better outcome

ie: Not out the back door by 20% on US indices, nor out the back door by say 10% on NZX

For those a bit more adventurous could have pulled more outperform gain out of shorting the trend
rather than doing nothing or suffering a minus outperform and shower of red for the privilege :)


My dear friend.

That's not what we were talking about is it??

I said that the NZ market has outperformed the US.

If you had invested 100k in the S&P at the beginning of the year and ended with 80k vs a mate who had invested in NZ and ended up with 90k

Your mate outperformed YOU.

Not cash which was never discussed.

For one thing to outperform another does not mean that one thing has to have a positive return. That's not what the word outperform means. Seriously cannot believe we are having this conversation, you cannot be this .......

noun [ C ] (also out-performance) /ˈaʊtpəˌfɔːməns/ us. the act of producing better results in a particular situation than others have done

[SailorRob]

Next you will be telling me that the rain this season is particularly wet.

[troyvdh]

It's more of wish really...I hope we longer hear about William and Harry.

[Habits]

It's more of wish really...I hope we longer hear about William and Harry.

Will is a legend, for flattening Harry. Bald, skinny and tough.