Sml010

[Newman]

SML010: bid 15.25% vs. ask 13.10%. IF Synlait cannot make progress to raise capital, its bonds would dive further quickly. Synlait needs to find $180 in 18 months to repay the bonds.

[Grimy]

Hopefully they will. I bought a small parcel today at 17.25%

[Snoopy]

SML010: bid 15.25% vs. ask 13.10%. IF Synlait cannot make progress to raise capital, its bonds would dive further quickly. Synlait needs to find $180 in 18 months to repay the bonds.


Huge volume in Synlait bonds today: $24,514,500m worth. Current yield is 57%, but that partly reflects the short time to maturity. I think I read somewhere that 57% represents about 70c in the dollar? So based on 'listing value' that $24.5145m of trades represents $24.5145m/0.7=$35m of issued bonds at the application price. So more than 1/6th of all the SML010 bonds on issue were traded today! This can't be amateurs at play. Looking at the spread of bondholders (AR2023 p142), all the bigger holdings are hiding behind custodians. So I can't tell who is selling. But someone wants a lifeboat out and they are willing to take a pretty big haircut to get away. Equally well, someone else is picking up all that hair, as they see a good 'wig making' business opportunity as December approaches. Fascinating stuff. Will those wigs be good, or is the implanted hair destined to fall out? Who ends up with their hair on at the end of the year will be interesting to see!

SNOOPY

[Newman]

Huge volume in Synlait bonds today: $24,514,500m worth. Current yield is 57%, but that partly reflects the short time to maturity. I think I read somewhere that 57% represents about 70c in the dollar? So based on 'listing value' that $24.5145m of trades represents $24.5145m/0.7=$35m of issued bonds at the application price. So more than 1/6th of all the SML010 bonds on issue were traded today! This can't be amateurs at play. Looking at the spread of bondholders (AR2023 p142), all the bigger holdings are hiding behind custodians. So I can't tell who is selling. But someone wants a lifeboat out and they are willing to take a pretty big haircut to get away. Equally well, someone else is picking up all that hair, as they see a good 'wig making' business opportunity as December approaches. Fascinating stuff. Will those wigs be good, or is the implanted hair destined to fall out? Who ends up with their hair on at the end of the year will be interesting to see!

SNOOPY

Where did you get the number of 35m bonds traded yesterday? The number shown on NZX was 431,000 bonds traded.

[Snoopy]

Where did you get the number of 35m bonds traded yesterday? The number shown on NZX was 431,000 bonds traded.


You have misinterpreted my post. You are correct that 431,000 bonds were traded. The information I am quoting is from here:
https://stocknessmonster.com/trades/sml010.nzx/

The $35m figure I quoted is the 'issue price dollar value' of those 431,000 bonds traded. Unless that website reference (which is good for the weekend but will be updated by Monday) is somehow screwed up in a way I don't understand?

SNOOPY

[winner69]

You have misinterpreted my post. You are correct that 431,000 bonds were traded. The information I am quoting is from here:
https://stocknessmonster.com/trades/sml010.nzx/

The $35m figure I quoted is the 'issue price dollar value' of those 431,000 bonds traded. Unless that website reference (which is good for the weekend but will be updated by Monday) is somehow screwed up in a way I don't understand?

SNOOPY


Seems Stockie stuffed it up eh Snoops

[Snoopy]

Seems Stockie stuffed it up eh Snoops


Straight off the web link, total value traded was:
$23,541,000+$284,500+$689,000= $24,514,500

Those are the numbers quoted. And my adjustment calculation to reflect the issue price comes out as:

$24,514,500/0.7 = $35.0m

Mind you, the site is 'stocknessmonster' not 'bondnessmonster'. So maybe there is something screwed up in their bond valuation spreadsheet output? I just reported what I saw in print, which I assumed was correct?

SNOOPY

[Grimy]

Stockness Monster certainly seems screwed up. Bonds traded - 413,000, value - $23,541,000.

And from the NZX - Bonds traded - 431,000, value - $312,026 - approx 72 cents at 57%. Sounds right.

Even at issue price value of $1 SM's number should be $413,000, not 23 million.

(Excluding the few extra sales recorded on SM).

[Snoopy]

Stockness Monster certainly seems screwed up. Bonds traded - 413,000, value - $23,541,000.

And from the NZX - Bonds traded - 431,000, value - $312,026 - approx 72 cents at 57%. Sounds right.


Synlait bonds trading at 62% today.

Stockness now giving a believable value for the total of bonds traded as $33,195 for 47,000 bonds traded. But if you go to the individual trades and sum those up, there were $2.194m worth of bonds traded. Weird.

SNOOPY