Election Watch - Pivotal Seats

[Balance]

A good perspective on which key seats will determine who becomes the government come October 2023.

The Maori & Pacifica votes will continue to go to Labour whether they vote Green, Maori Party or Labour - that’s a given.

The professional, farming and business votes will continue to go to National, whether they vote ACT or National.

What will determine the outcome of this election will be the white middle class female votes. There’s no Ardern for them to embrace and vote for this time but there’s plenty of basic issues for them to vote against Labour :

Education crisis
Healthcare crisis
Law & order breakdown
Racial divisions
Cost of Living crisis
Plenty more

So will they decide enough is enough or have they given up and are happy to embrace the Aussie welcome hug for their & their children’s future?

It’s that simple imo.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/132345297/want-to-know-who-is-going-to-win-the-election-watch-these-seats

[winner69]

Betfair has Nats at $1.38 to be next govt, Labour at $2.50

I got Labour at $3.80 a few months ago …pleased with that …pretty certain of winning I reckon

[iceman]

Not sure what you want on this thread Balance but I'm going to predict that ACT's Brooke van Welden will beat National's Simon O'Connor in Tamaki, showing a "leak" from National to ACT this year.

I also predict that in my Nelson electorate National's Blair Cameron will roll incumbent and useless Labour MP Rachel Boyack

[Balance]

Not sure what you want on this thread Balance but I'm going to predict that ACT's Brooke van Welden will beat National's Simon O'Connor in Tamaki, showing a "leak" from National to ACT this year.

I also predict that in my Nelson electorate National's Blair Cameron will roll incumbent and useless Labour MP Rachel Boyack

I thought there should be a separate thread to track the pivotal seats as NZ heads towards the election.

Otherwise, this would get lost in the general threads.

Your predictions are precisely what will clarify the positioning of the parties as they start their campaigning process.

Having observed Brooke van Welden’s campaign around my area, I must say I share your sentiment. She is contesting in a truly blue ribbon seat which used to be held by Muldoon and is now held by an accident prone Simon O’Connor. One is dynamic & young while the other is tired and well past his used-by-date.

[Getty]

[QUOTE=l

What will determine the outcome of this election will be the white middle class female votes. There’s no Ardern for them to embrace and vote for this time but there’s plenty of basic issues for them to vote against Labour :
[/QUOTE]

That may be a scary prospect.

Many of those, who are not overly interested in politics due to the shelter provided
by their men folk, will then vote Green, on the misapprehension they are helping a penguin in Antarctica.
The complete antithesis of those men folk

[Panda-NZ-]

Ilam to TOP (they're hoping for a way to circumvent the 5% threshold).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDZUlEWeOj4

Interview with the current leader;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-43odFTbYOU&t=669s

[justakiwi]

You are a misogynistic, sexist idiot, just like your unbalanced buddy.

I genuinely pity the women in your lives. They deserve so much better.


That may be a scary prospect.

Many of those, who are not overly interested in politics due to the shelter provided
by their men folk, will then vote Green, on the misapprehension they are helping a penguin in Antarctica.
The complete antithesis of those men folk

[Getty]

You are a misogynistic, sexist idiot, just like your unbalanced buddy.

I genuinely pity the women in your lives. They deserve so much better.

Very predictable coming from you JAK.

Marama looks forward to your vote.

I'm glad you enjoy my posts so much, you have taken me off ignore.
Isn't it nice to have an alpha male you can rely on?

[davflaws]

That may be a scary prospect.

Many of those, who are not overly interested in politics due to the shelter provided
by their men folk, will then vote Green, on the misapprehension they are helping a penguin in Antarctica.
The complete antithesis of those men folk

At least some of them will be voting Green because their men folk (nobly providing for them as is their duty and responsibility) have shown them the reality of living with an 'alpha male' - and they don't like it!

[justakiwi]

You don't know me. You should, if you've ever paid real attention to anything I've ever posted. But you clearly have not.

The Greens would literally be the last party I would ever vote for (not counting the fruit loop Tamaki party).

As for taking you off ignore - because I am inherently a nice person, I try to be the bigger person and give people "another chance" from time to time. Happy to put you back on though if that's what you would like.

Alpha male? Sorry to disappoint you, but you don't meet the requirements - about the only alpha male characteristic you display is self confidence. You do not tick the boxes for the remaining alpha qualities.

Who are you voting for in August, out of sheer curiosity.


Very predictable coming from you JAK.

Marama looks forward to your vote.

I'm glad you enjoy my posts so much, you have taken me off ignore.
Isn't it nice to have an alpha male you can rely on?

[Getty]

You don't know me. You should, if you've ever paid real attention to anything I've ever posted. But you clearly have not.

The Greens would literally be the last party I would ever vote for (not counting the fruit loop Tamaki party).

As for taking you off ignore - because I am inherently a nice person, I try to be the bigger person and give people "another chance" from time to time. Happy to put you back on though if that's what you would like.

Alpha male? Sorry to disappoint you, but you don't meet the requirements - about the only alpha male characteristic you display is self confidence. You do not tick the boxes for the remaining alpha qualities.

Who are you voting for in August, out of sheer curiosity.

Point taken on your outlook on the Greens.

I am a swinging voter who usually waits for manifestos to be released before final decision.
That said, the Greens and Labour and Te Pati are not on my shortlist.

[Panda-NZ-]

Which policy of NACT is appealing, unless you like to work until 67, charge grandma $5 for a prescription and lose some public holidays.

[Panda-NZ-]

The new GE policy is the only sensible thing there really (it's good to have it "ready" as an option for the issues we'll have longer term but I'm not sure our customers want it now)

[nztx]

Which policy of NACT is appealing, unless you like to work until 67, charge grandma $5 for a prescription and lose some public holidays.


Dont forget when the consequences of Labour's large spend & squanderfest comes home to roost
there might be expectation everyone else works until they are 87 ;)

Even Panda exemptions from partaking might need to get withdrawn :)

Remember that Cindy tossed herself out on her ear running away faster than a speeding trainwreck .. so :)

[Logen Ninefingers]

Which policy of NACT is appealing, unless you like to work until 67, charge grandma $5 for a prescription and lose some public holidays.

Which TE GREEBOUR policies are you in favour of? KiwiBuild, light rail for Auckland, 20,000 in temporary housing, ending NZ farming to ‘stop global climate change’, co-governance, ‘delivering for maori’? All of them?

[fungus pudding]

Which TE GREEBOUR policies are you in favour of? KiwiBuild, light rail for Auckland, 20,000 in temporary housing, ending NZ farming to ‘stop global climate change’, co-governance, ‘delivering for maori’? All of them?

The main purpose in voting is to try and keep out the party likely to do the most harm.

[justakiwi]

Wrong! Anyone who votes using that strategy is part of the problem.


The main purpose in voting is to try and keep our the party likely to do the most harm.

[777]

Which policy of NACT is appealing, unless you like to work until 67, charge grandma $5 for a prescription and lose some public holidays.

Worried about your inheritance are you?

[Baa_Baa]

Nicola Willis will be pivotable in Ohariu, overturning Greg O'Conner who has done nothing for them since 2017, and restoring the seat to National. Few of the Wellington western suburbs will be impressed by the Labour governments' two terms, embarrassed even, perhaps having had some part in ousting the independent Peter Dunne.

Wellington electorate is fraught, a constant battle between the greens, labour and national. After all it is the seat of parliament, the home of government. With a (second) green Mayor, who knows, history could be in the making like it was in central Auckland, though the left and far left may underestimate the blue rinse influence in the electorate, especially after an appalling performance by the past two governments, however they have been made up.

The absolute screw up by the greens influence on the cycleways to nowhere in Wellington that have been rushed through and are more dangerous that riding on the footpath! It's these things, however trivial they might seem, that influence votes.

It's a pity ACT have such a low profile in Wellington, after all it's where they will preside should they win a few more sets in government, alongside the blue national, even if in the cross benches. A bit of ACT would mix up the conversation, perhaps make a few right-leaning voters consider their options.

It might be the most interesting election since FPP, my senses are that many NZ electorates feel seriously ****ed over by this government and will be looking for change.

[Panda-NZ-]

Both left and right votes will be split (lab v green, nat v act).. best chance ever for third party candidates to win without needing to get to the 5% threshold.

[iceman]

Nicola Willis will be pivotable in Ohariu, overturning Greg O'Conner who has done nothing for them since 2017, and restoring the seat to National. Few of the Wellington western suburbs will be impressed by the Labour governments' two terms, embarrassed even, perhaps having had some part in ousting the independent Peter Dunne.

Wellington electorate is fraught, a constant battle between the greens, labour and national. After all it is the seat of parliament, the home of government. With a (second) green Mayor, who knows, history could be in the making like it was in central Auckland, though the left and far left may underestimate the blue rinse influence in the electorate, especially after an appalling performance by the past two governments, however they have been made up.

The absolute screw up by the greens influence on the cycleways to nowhere in Wellington that have been rushed through and are more dangerous that riding on the footpath! It's these things, however trivial they might seem, that influence votes.

It's a pity ACT have such a low profile in Wellington, after all it's where they will preside should they win a few more sets in government, alongside the blue national, even if in the cross benches. A bit of ACT would mix up the conversation, perhaps make a few right-leaning voters consider their options.

It might be the most interesting election since FPP, my senses are that many NZ electorates feel seriously ****ed over by this government and will be looking for change.

I will be very surprised if not most or all of the SI rural seats that unbelievably went to Labour last election, will swing back to National and ACT, including Damien O'Connor's West Coast- Tasman.

[iceman]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/132345297/want-to-know-who-is-going-to-win-the-election-watch-these-seats

[winner69]

Julie Anne Genter could possibly take Rongotai for the Greens. Rongotai has been forever been a Labour stronghold. So much so Nate don’t even ‘compete’

Whatever happens the people of Rongotai will have a useless MP …one even more useless than incumbent Paul Eagle

Probably sums up the current state of our parliament

[Jay]

Act deputy leader - Brooke van Velden vying for Tamaki (including taking over the old Police Station in St Heliers as electorate HQ- should Simon O'Connor be worried?? Could this be another Epsom??

[Balance]

Act deputy leader - Brooke van Velden vying for Tamaki (including taking over the old Police Station in St Heliers as electorate HQ- should Simon O'Connor be worried?? Could this be another Epsom??

There's certainly momentum with her campaign. High visibility and she articulates ACT's common sense policies as well as the one New Zealand vision very well.

WE could be in for an election day upset in Tamaki - and I havew to say, good riddance to Simon O'Connor who is well past his used by date as an effective MP.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/29-06-2023/the-growing-momentum-behind-brooke-van-veldens-bid-for-tamaki?fbclid=IwAR3OXwo-7syk6IlTc5kKLl9-1-n8VQGJ1J3bwKG8g7RYXBJPP5uYZIcWSkE_aem_AaSLhxeQBfqW rpBVYF3qjQ20vnaIXBrIQ4a6q3enAApH-1dV6qHostc4u3ymV4ioI5M

But is Act dog whistling on race, I press? No, she says. “What I’m hearing on the ground and what you might be picking up is people feel frustrated. People don’t feel they have the right to express their opinions and they are shut down. What we are also hearing is a frustration from people that government policy makes them feel like they no longer have a place in society,” van Velden says.

[Balance]

2.00 pm today and all will be revealed :

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/special-votes-election-2023-key-electorate-seats-to-look-out-for-and-mps-who-might-be-nervous/ZISACOYKUZF3BAHIGBUJUWCX5Q/

The 10 closest electorates in Election 2023

Te Atatū NICHOLAS, Angee (NAT) TWYFORD, Phil (LAB) 30

Nelson CAMERON, Blair (NAT) BOYACK, Rachel Elizabeth (LAB) 54

Banks Peninsula WEENINK, Vanessa (NAT) McLELLAN, Tracey (LAB) 83

Mt Albert WHITE, Helen (LAB) LEE, Melissa (NAT) 106

New Lynn GARCIA, Paulo (NAT) RUSSELL, Deborah (LAB) 483

Te Tai Tokerau DAVIS, Kelvin (LAB) KAPA-KINGI, Mariameno (TPMAO) 487

Tāmaki Makaurau HENARE, Peeni (LAB) KEMP, Takutai Tarsh (TPMAO) 495

Rongotai GENTER, Julie Anne (GP) FITZSIMONS, Fleur (LAB) 792

West Coast-Tasman PUGH, Maureen (NAT) O'CONNOR, Damien (LAB) 915

Hutt South BISHOP, Chris (NAT) ANDERSEN, Ginny (LAB) 1,094

[Sideshow Bob]

2.00 pm today and all will be revealed :

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/special-votes-election-2023-key-electorate-seats-to-look-out-for-and-mps-who-might-be-nervous/ZISACOYKUZF3BAHIGBUJUWCX5Q/

The 10 closest electorates in Election 2023

Te Atatū NICHOLAS, Angee (NAT) TWYFORD, Phil (LAB) 30

Nelson CAMERON, Blair (NAT) BOYACK, Rachel Elizabeth (LAB) 54

Banks Peninsula WEENINK, Vanessa (NAT) McLELLAN, Tracey (LAB) 83

Mt Albert WHITE, Helen (LAB) LEE, Melissa (NAT) 106

New Lynn GARCIA, Paulo (NAT) RUSSELL, Deborah (LAB) 483

Te Tai Tokerau DAVIS, Kelvin (LAB) KAPA-KINGI, Mariameno (TPMAO) 487

Tāmaki Makaurau HENARE, Peeni (LAB) KEMP, Takutai Tarsh (TPMAO) 495

Rongotai GENTER, Julie Anne (GP) FITZSIMONS, Fleur (LAB) 792

West Coast-Tasman PUGH, Maureen (NAT) O'CONNOR, Damien (LAB) 915

Hutt South BISHOP, Chris (NAT) ANDERSEN, Ginny (LAB) 1,094

Plenty could change.....or it might not.

[Balance]

Plenty could change.....or it might not.

Most interesting one to me is Mt Albert.

[thegreatestben]

Doubt Bish will lose Hutt South

[iceman]

If there is a 1-2 seat swing to the left from the specials and current electorate seats held by National, that could mean Brownlee is out of Parliament.
I’m personally not convinced the specials will reduce the right block seatnumbers but we’ll know soon

[Panda-NZ-]

You can't get NZ super from overseas so I doubt the trends from past years will change.

[Logen Ninefingers]

If Phil Twyford gets back then that’s an ‘own goal’ by Labour. A total waste of space.

[Balance]

If there is a 1-2 seat swing to the left from the specials and current electorate seats held by National, that could mean Brownlee is out of Parliament.
I’m personally not convinced the specials will reduce the right block seatnumbers but we’ll know soon

The swing away from Labour was massive so I am expecting the specials to reflect the same swing, albeit to a lesser extent.

3 mins to go.

[Panda-NZ-]

Move aside Charles Winston is the new king. :)

[nztx]

From Stuff:


National has lost two electorate seats from election night in the final result, with Nelson and Te Atatū going to Labour.

[Balance]

And Labour has lost in 6 of the 7 Maori seats, one by 4 votes!!!

Most satisfying to see Kelvin Davis, the most useless and incompetent Maori MP ever (refer Willie Jackson’s description of Seymour), losing his seat.

Very very very satisfying.

[nztx]

Move aside Charles Winston is the new king. :)


That will make the Chips & Watermelons real happy ;)

[Panda-NZ-]

Maori party has six seats, so much for labour's pandering to all things Maori.

[nztx]

And Labour has lost in 6 of the 7 Maori seats, one by 4 votes!!!

Most satisfying to see Kelvin Davis, the most useless and incompetent Maori MP ever (refer Willie Jackson’s description of Seymour), losing his seat.

Very very very satisfying.



Joint Leader of the Kermit alliance still chiming away in James-Speak: "Best result EVER! " ;)


and Kelvin will be really missed .. :)

[Daytr]

Joint Leader of the Kermit alliance still chiming away in James-Speak: "Best result EVER! " ;)


and Kelvin will be really missed .. :)

Isn't Kelvin Davis 2nd on the Labour list?

[iceman]

What a strange result. I don’t think anyone would have thought a few weeks ago, that there would be 123 MPs in Parliament.
The Maori Party taking 6 maori electorates, surely will mean the resignations of Willie, Kelvin et al with the collapse of the Maori Caucus, after a term when Labour had a parliamentary majority.

[nztx]

Willie Jackson says Labour is obliged to ask for a recount in Tāmaki Makaurau


Labour Māori strategist Willie Jackson congratulated Te Pāti Māori and its president, John Tamihere.

Jackson said while they were disappointed to lose Tāmaki Makaurau and Te Tai Tokerau, they can at least take consolation that Māori did not abandon Labour.

He said the party is obliged to ask for a recount in Tāmaki Makaurau, given the margin is so tight, but it was unlikely they would ask for a recount in Te Tai Tokerau.

"Again, I congratulate Te Pāti Māori on their election strategy and big ups to John Tamihere."

How was the strategy again - Willie ? ;)

[nztx]

Seymour says he can work with Peters - here's their most venomous insults, ranked

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-winston-peters-vs-david-seymour-their-15-most-venomous-insults-ranked/GAI3ALBY6BB57HLDOFIAZ7DTN4/

Election 2023: Winston Peters vs David Seymour - their 15 most venomous insults, ranked


This story was originally published by the Spinoff on September 25. Today David Seymour said he thinks he could work with Winston Peters.

Love, as so astutely observed by Pat Benatar, is a battlefield. So while the Chris and Chris Show was a balm for the soul, another great romance is at play in New Zealand politics, waged in the verbal fisticuffs of Winston Peters and David Seymour.

Alas the said "Love" for Labour appears to be a kick in the ass and sent spinning out .. and that's being kind, as the hapless former Queen of Relentless Fluffy Spin would have expected, before she ran away ;)

[iceman]

This is interesting:

https://twitter.com/ian_porritt/status/1720265251596439789

[Logen Ninefingers]

Not sure that TPM winning 6 race-based electorates & creating an over-hang situation is going to do much for the Left’s prospects at the next election. The unpleasant threat of the TPM tail wagging a Labour government dog is now well and truly apparent to centrist and swing voters. Labours ability to ever again portray themselves as able to form a moderate and centrist government has been obliterated. The more radical the Left alternative appears, the more repellant it becomes to the vast clump of voters in the middle. 6 TPM MP’s + their radical & like-minded allies in the Greens creates the potential for an awful lot of disruption and grandstanding in the next term of Parliament, and Labour will struggle to distance themselves from it. It’s a headache for the Left alright, a real pyrrhic victory.

[nztx]

Not sure that TPM winning 6 race-based electorates & creating an over-hang situation is going to do much for the Left’s prospects at the next election. The unpleasant threat of the TPM tail wagging a Labour government dog is now well and truly apparent to centrist and swing voters. Labours ability to ever again portray themselves as able to form a moderate and centrist government has been obliterated. The more radical the Left alternative appears, the more repellant it becomes to the vast clump of voters in the middle. 6 TPM MP’s + their radical & like-minded allies in the Greens creates the potential for an awful lot of disruption and grandstanding in the next term of Parliament, and Labour will struggle to distance themselves from it. It’s a headache for the Left alright, a real pyrrhic victory.


What has been seen is potentially move of Maori Support from Labour to TPM with possible threat of further
impending movement down the track. This could see implosion of some degree within Labour..

What happens when movement reaches the 16% or so level crossing over? What will be gained ?

[Baa_Baa]

How many seats are required to form a government?

62

How many seats does Nat / Act / Nzf have? (if they can play nicely)

67

What if they can't play nicely, how many seats does Lab / Grn / Tpm / Nzf have?

63

Kingmaker returns
:scared:

[nztx]

How many seats are required to form a government?

62

How many seats doesn't Nat / Act / Nzf have? (if they can play nicely)

67

What if they can't play nicely, how many seats does Lab / Grn / Tpm / Nzf have?

63

Kingmaker returns
:scared:


Kingmaker has choice between Labour which he has ruled out previously, or ACT which Seymour says he can work with :)

How are the makers of the new Crown going or are they still confused ? :)

Will it be Red, Black & Green .. or Blue, Yellow & Black ?

But has Hipkins not already conceded on the night ?

[Balance]

Most interesting one to me is Mt Albert.

Helen White ( I did so very well) hangs on by 20 votes.

Freaking heck - what a razor sharp margin for one of Labour’s safest seats! The electorate there sure sent Quitter Cindy a message!

[nztx]

Isn't Kelvin Davis 2nd on the Labour list?



It throws Davis’ future in doubt given he suggested before the election he would retire if he didn’t win his seat.

He is reported as having said..

[Balance]

He is reported as having said..

Hope the useless Maori Davis (refer Willie Jackson’s racist utterance) stays on - sure way to remind white middle NZ why they must never flirt again with giving Labour an opportunity to stuff up NZ forever.

[nztx]

Helen White ( I did so very well) hangs on by 20 votes.

Freaking heck - what a razor sharp margin for one of Labour’s safest seats! The electorate there sure sent Quitter Cindy a message!


A number of close seats - which must invite a recount - look at Nelson, Tāmaki Makaurau, Te Atatu

You're right - Mt Albert must have sent a spine chilling reminder out to Labour HQ ..


"Did well to axe Labour's majority by 19,980 down to a mere 20" probably better describes things..




Labour's last bastion, Mt Albert from 20,000 majority to 20

and only if not challenged, and then survives possible recount

[nztx]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nz-election-final-result-live-updates-special-votes-counted-nationals-christopher-luxon-to-negotiate-with-act-and-winston-peters/S56WOQ3QUJE57IZAKJTFUDFZUE/

04:47 pm


Labour’s Kelvin Davis loses Te Tai Tokerau but vows to stay on as a list MP



Labour’s deputy leader Kelvin Davis has conceded to Te Pāti Māori’s Mariameno Kapa-Kingi in Te Tai Tokerau.

Davis had held the seat since 2014. His 487-vote lead on election night was flipped in the final count, with Kapa-Kingi getting a 517-vote majority.

“I have called Mariameno to congratulate her on the win and wish her all the best in the role,” Davis said in a statement.

“It has been a privilege to serve and advocate for the people of Te Tai Tokerau and I will continue to do that as a list MP.“

My focus now will be on making sure the Labour Party is built into a strong opposition party so that we can hold the incoming government to account.”



Kelvin dont want to Retire any more and want to stay on Gravy Train :)

Guess someone had to stay to keep Twyford company in the "Elderly & Incapables" MP's Lounge
out the back .. be able to compare notes on what they each said & what instead happened ;)

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nz-election-final-result-live-updates-special-votes-counted-nationals-christopher-luxon-to-negotiate-with-act-and-winston-peters/S56WOQ3QUJE57IZAKJTFUDFZUE/

04:47 pm


Labour’s Kelvin Davis loses Te Tai Tokerau but vows to stay on as a list MP





Kelvin dont want to Retire any more and want to stay on Gravy Train :)

Guess someone had to stay to keep Twyford company in the "Elderly & Incapables" MP's Lounge
out the back .. be able to compare notes on what they each said & what instead happened ;)

Good stuff!

Kelvin ‘Oranga Tamiriki toddlers death’ & ‘Release violent prisoners early’ Davis will remind NZers everyday for the next decade why they must never allow Labour to govern again.

[Getty]

So if Davis lost a 487 majority on election night, to a 517 loss when specials are counted, then offshore Maori must support Te Pati more than Labour.

[nztx]

Good stuff!

Kelvin ‘Oranga Tamiriki toddlers death’ & ‘Release violent prisoners early’ Davis will remind NZers everyday for the next decade why they must never allow Labour to govern again.


It takes a very special class of talent to about-face on his announced retirement plans in face of wholesale loss of Maori seats and linger on like a useless ornament hanging on the back wall to remind all of the past terms' shortcomings & failures at his hands, even after the voters have passed judgement that he was to be gone ;)


Will he be Labour's new fill-in teaboy in Opposition, or would that be too hazardous to the wellbeing of the other filthy few survivors left while they go through their revised Corrections motions ? ;)

[nztx]

So if Davis lost a 487 majority on election night, to a 517 loss when specials are counted, then offshore Maori must support Te Pati more than Labour.


News of Judgement Day must have spread fast & with it the opportunity to deliver up some return thanks for all the destruction Labour were orchestrating on those stuck back home.. A little karma goes a long way

[iceman]

Willie Jackson says Labour is obliged to ask for a recount in Tāmaki Makaurau



How was the strategy again - Willie ? ;)

To be honest, I think from a strategic point of view, the Maori Party came up trumps. They’ve actively advocated for, and convinced, the Maori electorate to vote for TMP in the electorate & Labour on the list. No doubt an agreed strategy between Willie & his brother in law Tamihere. They have been successful with that strategy but the benefit was all for TMP, this time !

[iceman]

So if Davis lost a 487 majority on election night, to a 517 loss when specials are counted, then offshore Maori must support Te Pati more than Labour.

No. Over 80% of the special votes were cast in NZ. Just out of electorate. TMP won the 18-25 yo Maori vote hands down. The result tells us most young Maori voters voted outside of their electorate and electorally in favour of TMP and list wise in favour of Labour.

[Getty]

No. Over 80% of the special votes were cast in NZ. Just out of electorate. TMP won the 18-25 yo Maori vote hands down. The result tells us most young Maori voters voted outside of their electorate and electorally in favour of TMP and list wise in favour of Labour.

Thanks for that update.

The new force in politics then is Yummies, young upwardly mobile Maoris.

[Balance]

Thanks for that update.

The new force in politics then is Yummies, young upwardly mobile Maoris.

Good on them for splitting their votes to maximise their seats between Labour & TMP. What National had done of course with ACT in Epsom.

In this election, it made bigger all difference to the end result (losers are losers, whether by 1 seat or 20 seats) but if they use their seats wisely, they can be very influential in directing the progress of NZ into a modern, prosperous and peaceful country.

The other group as a force to watch as well is the Asian migrant votes which was very influential this election in shifting the Auckland landscape towards the right.

By their nature, Asian migrants are hard working, law abiding, family orientated and find racial & social divisive politics repugnant. Quite a revelation for many of them to migrate here and find that their hard work and taxes are going into breeding beneficiaries, criminals and parasites by Labour. Very fertile ground of votes for National & ACT as their population grow.

[Getty]

Good on them for splitting their votes to maximise their seats between Labour & TMP. What National had done of course with ACT in Epsom.

In this election, it made bigger all difference to the end result (losers are losers, whether by 1 seat or 20 seats) but if they use their seats wisely, they can be very influential in directing the progress of NZ into a modern, prosperous and peaceful country.

The other group as a force to watch as well is the Asian migrant votes which was very influential this election in shifting the Auckland landscape towards the right.

By their nature, Asian migrants are hard working, law abiding, family orientated and find racial & social divisive politics repugnant. Quite a revelation for many of them to migrate here and find that their hard work and taxes are going into breeding beneficiaries, criminals and parasites by Labour. Very fertile ground of votes for National & ACT as their population grow.

Maybe, but my read is that the Yummies and the Raisins (recent asians) will cancel each other out.

You may say a Balance.

[Balance]

Maybe, but my read is that the Yummies and the Raisins (recent asians) will cancel each other out.

You may say a Balance.

Agreed at this stage.

However, the number of Asians coming into NZ is overwhelming the increase in Maori population growth. Matter of time as they get politically more active to make their presence really felt.

Meanwhile, white middle class NZers are leaving in droves to Australia - that's where National/ACT are losing votes by attrition.

Sobering when our local kindy recently lost all 3 new graduate teachers (all young female pakeha) & their partners to Australia - to be replaced by Asian caregivers.

[Getty]

Agreed at this stage.

However, the number of Asians coming into NZ is overwhelming the increase in Maori population growth. Matter of time as they get politically more active to make their presence really felt.

Meanwhile, white middle class NZers are leaving in droves to Australia - that's where National/ACT are losing votes by attrition.

Sobering when our local kindy recently lost all 3 new graduate teachers (all young female pakeha) & their partners to Australia - to be replaced by Asian caregivers.

Yes, and just as sobering is that many of those Asian immigrants see NZ as a gateway to enter Australia.

[Balance]

Yes, and just as sobering is that many of those Asian immigrants see NZ as a gateway to enter Australia.

Once they serve their required period to get PR and then citizenship, they are as free as any NZ citizen to go to where they can have a better life.

I have no problem with that.

I have a problem with billions of dollars being paid to the beneficiaries, parasites, criminals and losers bred by Labour over the last 6 years who can work but prefer to receive handouts and stay in NZ. Why don't they pxssed off to Australia?

[Panda-NZ-]

Once they serve their required period to get PR and then citizenship, they are as free as any NZer to go to where they can have a better life.

I have no problem with that.

Yes it's all about PR for them.

These migrants should join NZers of every persuasion (teachers, nurses, workers) in asking for better conditions so they wouldn't have to move.

[Getty]

Once they serve their required period to get PR and then citizenship, they are as free as any NZer to go to where they can have a better life.

I have no problem with that.

In itself, nor do I.

But it does show that NZ is at risk of becoming a transit lounge, with even more offshore voters having a say in the outcomes of the lives of those still resident in NZ.

Hopefully we get a government that makes people want to stay in NZ.

[Balance]

In itself, nor do I.

But it does show that NZ is at risk of becoming a transit lounge, with even more offshore voters having a say in the outcomes of the lives of those still resident in NZ.

Hopefully we get a government that makes people want to stay in NZ.

That is the hope.

The reality is that NZ is now a divided society where race and politics are of greater consequence to a person's career prospect & ability to get ahead than their skill, qualification and ability.

Once a migrant becomes a citizen, they find themselves required to embrace woke and PC ideologies (based on race & political preferences) to access opportunities - why do they want o stay in NZ when Australia welcomes them with open arms and without such ideological garbage.

Case in point - a 30+ year old Filipino caregiver became a citizen two years ago and found his path to promotion hindered by his lack of proficiency about the Treaty, cultural safety and Te reo Maori. He migrated to Brisbane this year with his family - immediate promotion, big increase in pay and better conditions with no requirement to embrace woke & race based ideologies to get ahead. Need to only work hard and diligently to provide care as he is very good at. His wife is an ex-employee in the company I worked in.

https://thumbnailer.digitalnz.org/?resize=664%3E&src=https%3A%2F%2Fndhadeliver.natlib.govt.nz%2FNLN ZStreamGate%2Fget%3Fdps_pid%3DIE1081147

[Getty]

That is the hope.

The reality is that NZ is now a divided society where race and politics are of greater consequence to a person's career prospect & ability to get ahead than their skill, qualification and ability.

Once a migrant becomes a citizen, they find themselves required to embrace woke and PC ideologies (based on race & political preferences) to access opportunities - why do they want o stay in NZ when Australia welcomes them with open arms and without such ideological garbage.

Case in point - a 30+ year old Filipino caregiver became a citizen two years ago and found his path to promotion hindered by his lack of proficiency about the Treaty, cultural safety and Te reo Maori. He migrated to Brisbane this year with his family - immediate promotion, big increase in pay and better conditions with no requirement to embrace woke & race based ideologies to get ahead. Need to only work hard and diligently to provide care as he is very good at. His wife is an ex-employee in the company I worked in.

https://thumbnailer.digitalnz.org/?resize=664%3E&src=https%3A%2F%2Fndhadeliver.natlib.govt.nz%2FNLN ZStreamGate%2Fget%3Fdps_pid%3DIE1081147

It's astonishing how NZ was able to be steered in that rotten direction in such a short time.

I think a lot of Kiwis are blissfully unaware of the idealogical change, until a family member tries to get a job or promotion, or they themselves need hospital treatment.

They did see Waka and Kainga signs, but thought that was someone else, they only know Winz.

[Balance]

It's astonishing how NZ was able to be steered in that rotten direction in such a short time.

I think a lot of Kiwis are blissfully unaware of the idealogical change, until a family member tries to get a job or promotion, or they themselves need hospital treatment.

They did see Waka and Kainga signs, but thought that was someone else, they only know Winz.

Almost everyone were cowed into silence or submission by the government & MSM - to question the ideological drift towards apartheid was to be called a racist and to risk being cancelled.

Similar to the practice of silencing dissenting voices in communist Russia, China and North Korea - anyone questioning the doctrine were arrested and jailed with many executed for good measure.

Ardern certainly lived up to her comrade/socialist bend with her attempts to silence dissenting voices to her racist & divisive policies.

How she must wish she could rule NZ like Stalin.

“4 legs good, 2 legs even better!” Animal Farm

[iceman]

More great stuff from the Electoral Commission https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2023-electoral-commission-reviewing-voting-results-after-herald-investigation-led-to-discovery-of-three-wrong-counts/MNYX4TGLM5ENFBUQYQL7CM7WZA/

[nztx]

More great stuff from the Electoral Commission https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2023-electoral-commission-reviewing-voting-results-after-herald-investigation-led-to-discovery-of-three-wrong-counts/MNYX4TGLM5ENFBUQYQL7CM7WZA/


Indeed .. how about the rest of the electorates .. or a more of this sort of thing yet to come out ? ;)

Must be on a par with Stats Dept's performance under the watch of the last lot of Labour numbskulls ;)