Nigeria NGE ETF

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NGE has reached an interesting price point, prior to its imminent liquidation. Its Fund Manager has liquidated almost all its constituent holdings, and the resulting local currency cash Naira is to be converted sometime in the next 5 weeks into USD, for distribution to shareholders at NAV. NAV should range between $10-$11, if NGN:USD trades between 800-720 in the next 5 weeks.

That's an average 20% return in one month or so, should I buy around $8.80 last market close. Naira has been stabilizing since being unpegged from USD officially in June 2023. NGE has had a chequered career, and Nigeria has had capital controls, but the new guy Tinubu has initiated decisive reforms, including relaxing capital controls.

In any case, the current 20% discount to market close $8.8 should vanish as we near distribution date (expected 2 oct 2023). Looks like a relatively risk-free arbitrage opportunity to me.

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Nigerian election tribunal upholds Tinubu's presidential win
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigerian-election-tribunal-decide-if-tinubu-stays-president-2023-09-06/

Uncertainty removed. This should help Naira lift up vs USD, and therefore help NGE find a floor sooner. Morgan Stanley stated it liked Tinubu reforms and the pace at which he is trying to turn the Nigerian economy around

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Nigeria mulls G20 bloc membership.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigeria-mulls-g20-bloc-membership-2023-09-03/
Tinubu attending G20 summit in India to try to promote foreign investment in Nigeria and mobilize global capital to develop infrastructure. South Africa is currently the only African member of the group of the world's 20 most industrialised nations.
Tinubu has already embarked on the boldest reforms in decades, which have been welcomed by investors.

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G20 welcomes African Union as permanent member at Delhi summit
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/09/g20-african-union-au.html

Great for Africa (and Nigeria) trade and economic stability, and another step in the direction of a more stable multi-polar world.

Nigeria joined the huge Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) over four years ago, when it was formed to boost manufacturing across 55 members of the African Union (AU) - together in a single market of 1.2 billion people - by removing trade barriers such as tariffs across Africa, but Buhari then closed borders to end smuggling - which increased inflation. Nigerian non-oil exports peaked at 1 Trillion Naira (~ $2.5bn) in 2019, and never recovered post Buhari's border closure.

Now, with Nigeria leading ECOWAS and Tinubu speeding up reforms and re-engaging on regional security and fellowship, Africa and Nigeria should benefit again. Manufacturing is 10% of AU's combined GDP of ~$3.5 trillion, but Africa also has 30% of the world’s mineral reserves, 12% of the world’s oil, 8% of the world’s natural gas reserves, 40% of the world’s gold, and 90% of its chromium and platinum – both valuable metals. 63% of world’s cobalt production comes from DRC. DRC and Rwanda are the world’s largest producers of tantalum (50% together), etc.

If Tinubu can also secure some bilateral agreements or FTAs out of G20 in 2023, Nigerian Naira should start to take-off. Meaning the NGE NTA should rise, and the pay-off at the imminent NTA distribution should be larger. The arbitrage opportunity just keeps getting better and better.

[Valuegrowth]

Few developing markets which include Nigerian market are outperforming other markets. For me the biggest risk in investing in foreign markets is currency risk. Another risk is default risk. However, few specialized funds have done well by investing in those countries. I still get monthly newsletter from one of the funds based in Cayman Island. I learn something from it. Their record is amazing.

https://tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/stock-market

The NSE-All Share increased 16892 points or 32.96% since the beginning of 2023, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from Nigeria.

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For people who are looking to get AT LEAST SOME ex-US/ China/India/Europe exposure for various reasons, Nigeria is Africa's giant - its #1 economy, #1 oil producer and #1 populous nation. Now #8 in Global Population (population is expected to double by 2050, making it World #4 populous country), 51st in Global Market Capitalizations ($40 Billion), 25th in Global GDPs ($500 Billion), it has strong demographics as more than 60% of Nigerians are under 25 yrs old.

While western media generally reports only problems in Frontier Markets, Nigeria is undergoing rapid technological and financial innovation, acceptance and penetration. I am only sad to see that NGE will soon payout NAV and cease to exist... given that it was finally beginning to rise again like a phoenix, after Buhari & Co. all but incinerated the economy and the country's international goodwill.

Still, it should pay a handsome distribution to all buying below $10 now.

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29 March 2024 NGE liquidation = NAV distributed to shareholders, and circa 15% discount to NAV currently available in market is likely to vanish slowly

As of the close of regular trading on the NYSE Arca (the “NYSE”) on March 25, 2024 (“Closing Date”), the shares of the Fund will cease trading on the NYSE and the Fund will be closed to purchases by investors.
Ref: SUPPLEMENT DATED SEPTEMBER 19, 2023
https://www.globalxetfs.com/prospectus-regulatory/?id=67

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Nigeria produces most of Africa’s petroleum (25%), and crude is about to flirt with $100 a barrel again. A JPMorgan Analyst Sees Energy Supercycle With Oil As High As $150. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/JPMorgan-Analyst-Sees-Energy-Supercycle-With-Oil-As-High-As-150.html

Crude contributes 5% to Nigeria GDP (Oil production capacity circa 1.50 million barrels a day, but was producing less than 1mbpd in Apr 23 due to security issues etc.), but gets 90% of Nigeria's FX earnings and 50% of Govt revenue. A higher Oil price and imminent start of production at the new Dangote refinery will see NGN:USD rising and black market rates converging towards official exchange rates, if Tinubu can sort out the security issues a bit.

Looks like green shoots for Nigeria, and NGE holders to me, despite all the loud and prolific chatter about possible 1000 NGN:USD in black markets soon :)

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Ok, so 1000 NGN:USD has come to pass in the black markets.
And, the FX reserves have bled some, as expected, post capital control reforms.
And, the share dumping on the NGE liquidation postponement from 2 October 23 to 29 March 24 is also (mostly) done.

Where to from here? I think the 15%+ discount on NAV distribution still on offer on NGE is still way better than what NZX 50 can achieve in the next 6 months. So, NGE still remains attractive...

[Valuegrowth]

https://nairametrics.com/2023/10/02/q32023-nigeria-stock-market-closes-on-a-positive-trajectory-with-29-52-gain/

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https://nairametrics.com/2023/10/02/q32023-nigeria-stock-market-closes-on-a-positive-trajectory-with-29-52-gain/

Yea, local and International investors like Tinubu's decisive reforms. $-denominated Eurobonds were up 3%, but local banking index was up 23% to a 20-year high when he suspended CBN Governor Emefiele.

Investment banking giant Morgan Stanley is bullish on Tinubu, as he is is often credited with increasing Lagos’s internally generated revenue from $3.77 million pm at his inauguration in 1999 to an average of $32 milllion per month in 2006 on the eve of his exit. So, almost 9x in about 7 years.

Tinubu may expand the GDP 6% pa given his track record in Lagos. By unifying multiple FX rates, he is already trying to lift investment barriers and courting foreign investment again, eg., EU to invest in building a pipeline to connect EU to Nigeria’s gas.

[GTM 3442]

Certainly room for some infrastructure spending. . .

https://guardian.ng/news/pressure-mounts-on-tinubu-to-fix-dilapidated-federal-highways/

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Fitch and Moody’s also confirmed that Tinubu’s fuel subsidy cut, and unification of multiple FX rates were positive for the economy. Interestingly, to ease the cost of living burden on the common folk due to fuel spiking post subsidy cuts, Tinubu's temporarily frozen fuel prices, frozen new taxes and signed a new act to boost electricity generation - all within his first 100 days as president.

He's also had some success in temporarily stopping/delaying union strikes.

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Dollar Supply Jumps After Nigeria Lifts Ban on Some Forex Deals

Dollar supply in Nigeria soared after the central bank scrapped restrictions on buying foreign currency required to import 43 items, in a bid to stem the naira’s 40% rout this year. Liquidity at the investors and exporters window — the official foreign-exchange market — increased more than five-fold to $407.7 million on Thursday after the central bank’s announcement, according to Chapel Hill Denham, a Lagos-based investment bank. The naira gained for the first time in three weeks in the parallel market Friday, said Umar Salisu, a trader who compiles the data....

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/dollar-supply-jumps-after-nigeria-lifts-ban-on-some-forex-deals-1.1984370

[Valuegrowth]

They have some dividend champions too. https://nairametrics.com/2023/10/14/high-yield-nigerian-dividend-stocks/

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Nigeria imported $23.3bn petroleum products last year.

NNPC has an agreement to supply Dangote Refinery with 300,000 bpd of crude and production-sharing agreements with oil majors like ExxonMobil, Shell and Eni and is entitled to a portion of the crude, which it also swaps with traders for petrol and diesel.

According to a report by Nairametrics, the Dangote Refinery is set to start diesel and jet fuel refining operations in October 2023 and petrol refining by November 30, 2023 (https://nairametrics.com/2023/09/19/dangote-refinery-to-start-refining-petrol-by-november-30-2023-report/) The refinery will receive its first cargo of crude in the next two weeks and will begin producing up to 370,000 barrels per day of diesel and jet fuel from October 2023. It will then start the phased ramp-up to 650,000 barrels per day of petrol by November 30, 2023 (https://nairametrics.com/2023/09/19/dangote-refinery-to-start-refining-petrol-by-november-30-2023-report/)

Dangote Refinery could end Nigeria’s petrol deficit, saving the country $20-23m pa in future, and export diesel to EU specs.

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The London High Court ruling by Justice Robin Knowles reverses an arbitration award over the failed 2010 gas deal between Nigeria and a British Virgin Islands-based firm Process & Industrial Developments Ltd., founded by two Irish businessmen.

The judge overturned the arbitration award that would have required Nigeria to pay $11 billion over a failed gas project, finding the contract was obtained through fraud. The payment would have dealt a massive blow to Nigeria’s economy.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-british-court-ruling-frees-nigeria-from-paying-11-billion-in-damages-over-a-failed-gas-project/ar-AA1iHYRb

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-british-court-ruling-frees-nigeria-from-paying-11-billion-in-damages-over-a-failed-gas-project/ar-AA1iHYRb

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Tinubu allays fears of the business community, assuring that crucial plans are underway to improve foreign exchange liquidity

Tinubu said his administration would honour every legitimate contract with respect to the nation’s foreign exchange obligations.

"My government is not blind to the challenges which several of you are facing in the financial markets. I can allay these concerns by revealing that we have a good line of sight into the additional foreign exchange liquidity that is required to restore market confidence," he said.

Plans underway to improve foreign exchange liquidity – Tinubu | The Guardian Nigeria News - Nigeria and World News — Nigeria — The Guardian Nigeria News – Nigeria and World News (https://guardian.ng/news/nigeria/national/plans-underway-to-improve-foreign-exchange-liquidity-tinubu/)

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Speaking at the 29th Nigerian Economic Summit (NES) in Abuja on Monday, Tinubu said the squeeze that has resulted in the naira weakening to record lows against the dollar will ease.

'We’ll improve forex liquidity, restore market confidence'-- Tinubu assures (thecable.ng) (https://www.thecable.ng/well-improve-forex-liquidity-restore-market-confidence-tinubu-assures-nigerians)

28% discount to $10.23 NAV of 20/10/23 vs market low of $7.41 today, should VANISH now as we near liquidation distribution in March. With P&ID ruling, Tinubu's decisive reforms which US rating agencies and Investment banks like, and USD liquidity issues being ironed out as we speak, buying NGE has now become the best arbitrage opportunity I've come across in my life. Anyone see a catch?

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28% discount to $10.23 NAV of 20/10/23 vs market low of $7.41 today, should VANISH now as we near liquidation distribution in March. With P&ID ruling, Tinubu's decisive reforms which US rating agencies and Investment banks like, and USD liquidity issues being ironed out as we speak, buying NGE has now become the best arbitrage opportunity I've come across in my life. Anyone see a catch?

On Monday, central bank governor Yemi Cardoso said the naira will adjust once rules for market participants are made clear.

Finance Minister Wale Edun also said on Monday that Nigeria was expecting $10 billion in foreign currency inflows in the next few weeks to improve foreign exchange market liquidity. He said, without elaborating, that the inflows would come from the issuance of instruments in dollars, oil sales and foreign investments.

On the official market, the naira recovered to 775 to the dollar from a record low of 999 it touched last week. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/nigerian-naira-hits-record-black-market-low-abokifx-2023-10-26/

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Nigeria’s Supreme Court affirms Tinubu’s presidential victory - ending months of legal battles over the presidential race.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/26/nigerias-supreme-court-affirms-tinubus-presidential-victory

In July, Tinubu was also selected to chair the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), putting him at the helm of the African regional bloc.

Trained as an accountant in the US, Tinubu has already decisively introduced key economic reforms that he says will lure investors and make Nigeria a regional economic powerhouse.

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Trained as an accountant in the US, Tinubu has already decisively introduced key economic reforms that he says will lure investors and make Nigeria a regional economic powerhouse.

Nigeria Plans New FX Rules — including a crackdown on illegal currency trading — to help Naira close its more-than-45% gap with the black market rate and reach ‘N650-N750 Fair Price’ by End of 2023

The government plans to clear a backlog of dollar demand estimated at about $6.7 billion, bolster the naira forward market, and set transparent rules for the operations of the official market, Taiwo Oyedele, chair of the presidential committee on fiscal policy and tax reforms, said in an interview.


President Tinubu signs executive orders to boost FX liquidity. Government plans local issuance of dollar denominated debt


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-30/nigeria-plans-new-fx-rules-to-improve-ngn-usd-liquidity#:~:text=Nigeria%20is%20planning%20to%20i ntroduce,end%2C%20a%20top%20official%20said.

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The Climb Back begins for Naira

The perception among traders, particularly speculators, is that the exchange rate will rise against the dollar in the coming days, forcing them to sell lower in order to avoid losing their shirts.

The foreign exchange market will be streamlined and restructured so that all rightful and proper transactions will be covered by the government and take place in the official foreign exchange market. Anything beyond that will be punished, considered a criminal offense, and illegal, according to Edun.

https://saharareporters.com/2023/10/27/nigerian-currency-naira-appreciates-against-dollar-parallel-market-after-long-recession

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-11-01-nigerian-stock-index-jumps-most-since-july-to-new-record-high/

The All Share Index rose 1.9% at 2.30 p.m in Lagos, the most since July 10, to 70,581.76, the highest on record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Nigerian index outperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Europe, Middle East and Africa Index, which advanced 0.6%.

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The All Share Index rose 1.9% at 2.30 p.m in Lagos, the most since July 10, to 70,581.76, the highest on record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Nigerian index outperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Europe, Middle East and Africa Index, which advanced 0.6%.

Yep, Tinubu following through on his promises:
Nigeria Seeks Approval to Borrow $7.9 Billion (externally) , Daily Trust Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-01/nigeria-seeks-approval-to-borrow-7-9-billion-daily-trust-says#xj4y7vzkg

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Naira (NGN USD) Jumps on Nigeria Streets, Crypto Trade After Forex Cleared
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-03/naira-poised-to-strengthen-on-parallel-market-after-crypto-gain


Nigeria’s naira jumped against the dollar on the parallel market and on crypto exchanges on Friday, a day after authorities said they took steps to clear a backlog of matured foreign-currency forward contracts that have hampered dollar inflows.


The local currency soared 10% to 1,035 a dollar on the parallel market (from below 1300 just days ago), according to Abubakar Mohammed, chief executive officer of Forward Marketing Bureau de Change Ltd., which compiles exchange-rate data.


It was quoted at 819.10 on Binance Holdings Ltd.’s platform, a 28% gain from the previous day, as of 2:15 p.m. local time.

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The perception among traders, particularly speculators, is that the exchange rate will rise against the dollar in the coming days, forcing them to sell lower in order to avoid losing their shirts.

Price rising with volume on NGE. Bottom in?

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Price rising with volume on NGE. Bottom in?

Naira Continues Rebound, Strengthens To N950/$ at Parallel Market.

Simultaneously, the official Investors and Exporters (I&E) window reflected renewed vigour...

An official from the CBN, who wished to remain anonymous, confirmed the settlement of FX forward contracts through 14 banks on Wednesday. He further assured investors that the remaining FX forward contracts would be addressed in the forthcoming week.

“We expect USD/NGN to eventually move lower towards 850 by year-end as the combination of tighter policy, as well as more attractive rates and FX levels deter incremental dollarization and perhaps attract some foreign capital,” JP Morgan asserted. :t_up:

https://www.arise.tv/naira-continues-rebound-strengthens-to-n950-at-parallel-market/

[Valuegrowth]

When a country get IMF or other funds stock markets react strongly.
Yep, Tinubu following through on his promises:
Nigeria Seeks Approval to Borrow $7.9 Billion (externally) , Daily Trust Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-01/nigeria-seeks-approval-to-borrow-7-9-billion-daily-trust-says#xj4y7vzkg

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.arise.tv/double-honours-for-zenith-at-london-stock-exchange-as-bank-retains-two-awards/

I came to know about this Nigerian bank, the Africa’s largest bank when I was in a UK based forum. Its one-year return is over 40%. If I had bought this and kept at least for 3 years; capital gain could have generated nearly 300% (three bagger). Thing is still it’s trading much below the book value while having low PE ratio.

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https://www.arise.tv/double-honours-for-zenith-at-london-stock-exchange-as-bank-retains-two-awards/

I came to know about this Nigerian bank, the Africa’s largest bank when I was in a UK based forum. Its one-year return is over 40%. If I had bought this and kept at least for 3 years; capital gain could have generated nearly 300% (three bagger). Thing is still it’s trading much below the book value while having low PE ratio.

Yea, Nigeria has had serious challenges, but some have made serious money there - despite Buhari's mule headedness.
Interestingly, there is more money to be made in Africa (especially Nigeria - because of its economics, location and demographics) this decade, than there was in the last one.

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The perception among traders, particularly speculators, is that the exchange rate will rise against the dollar in the coming days, forcing them to sell lower in order to avoid losing their shirts.

Speculators lose big as Naira rallies across markets, trades below N900/$1 at P2P
https://nairametrics.com/2023/11/03/naira-rallies-as-exchange-rate-trades-below-n900-1-on-p2p-exchanges/

Some are losing their shirts as we speak, and more are going to - if they keep shorting Naira now...

This surge represents a significant setback for currency speculators who bet against the Nigerian currency...
The urgency displayed by speculators, eager to divest their short positions, underscores their anticipation of the Naira’s potential further gains...
In conversations with Nairametrics, dollar holders expressed alarm over the recent developments, fearing considerable financial losses...

Wale Edun, the Minister of Finance stated that FX liquidity will improve in the coming weeks. He further highlighted that discussions with sovereign wealth funds willing to invest and provide advances along with investments are in advance phases...

Onwards and upwards for Naira and NGE now. Last boats leaving for those who want to still catch the 25% discount to NAV in NGE, I reckon

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Wale Edun, the Minister of Finance stated that FX liquidity will improve in the coming weeks. He further highlighted that discussions with sovereign wealth funds willing to invest and provide advances along with investments are in advance phases...

On November 10, the Saudi government had said it would provide a “substantial” deposit of FX to boost Nigeria’s forex liquidity, as a show of support for the ongoing forex reforms by the CBN. FMDQ said transactions opened at N813 to the dollar and closed at N780, up 22%, total value of trades recorded at the official window stood at $84.02 million.

https://www.thecable.ng/naira-appreciates-to-n780-at-official-market

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TotalEnergies to invest $6bn in Nigeria’s Deepwater - in coming years
https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/business-news/652635-totalenergies-to-invest-6-billion-in-nigeria-in-coming-years.html

Nigeria contributes 8 to 10 per cent of TotalEnergies’ global output and is home to more than 18 per cent of its overall investments.

CEO Patrick Pouyanne told President Bola Tinubu during a meeting in Abuja on Monday that the French company is in support of the current administration’s policies and push to resolve insecurity issues in the industry.

Nigeria is on a drive to ramp up oil output, which hit a multi-decade low of below 1 million barrels last year, hobbled by oil theft, vandalism and decrepit infrastructures. Mele Kyari, the group managing director of NNPC Limited, told senators in November that over 5000 kilometres of pipeline in the country are not working, with the pipeline from Warri to Benin inactive for the past 22 years.

Output for November fell slightly to 1.37 million barrels per day, compared to 1.38 million bpd one month prior, both far behind the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ production quota of 1.74 million bpd. NNPC has said it is looking to produce at the rate of 2 million bpd in 2024.

Meanwhile, Naira has remained volatile and its continued depreciation has further eroded NAV, since I last posted. However, the discount (market price to NAV) has also been reducing.
Dangote refinery got its first (maiden) delivery of crude. So, good things are starting to take root, however frustratingly slowly...

[Valuegrowth]

https://investorsking.com/2023/12/14/bullish-trend-continues-nigerian-stock-market-hits-72000-points-gains-n215-billion/

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https://investorsking.com/2023/12/14/bullish-trend-continues-nigerian-stock-market-hits-72000-points-gains-n215-billion/

Indeed, it is on fire. If you are interested:

Steady Seas: Seplat’s quarterly dividends in foreign currency and the investor advantage
https://nairametrics.com/2023/12/21/steady-seas-seplats-quarterly-dividends-in-foreign-currency-and-the-investor-advantage/

In 2022, Seplat Energy’s stock outperformed the market, achieving a Year-to-Date return of 69.23%, compared to the NGX All-Share Index return of 19.98%.


In the current year, the stock has recorded a Year-to-Date gain of 110% and, with a current dividend yield of 4%, offers investors a potential total return of 114%

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Meanwhile, Naira has remained volatile and its continued depreciation has further eroded NAV, since I last posted. However, the discount (market price to NAV) has also been reducing.

Despite Naira slumping, investors are becoming increasingly optimistic about Nigeria’s economy.

Moody’s raised the country’s credit outlook to positive this month, citing Naira devaluation as one of the reasons for its positive outlook.

World Bank upped Nigeria's economy annual growth estimates to 3.5% pa between 2023-2026 from 3%, 0.5% more than if the reforms were not implemented.

Tinubu is gunning for 6% pa https://www.semafor.com/article/12/20/2023/nigerian-naira-falls-to-record-low

[Valuegrowth]

Few developing markets have outperformed all other markets.

https://nairametrics.com/2023/12/29/ngx-all-share-index-closes-2023-with-45-9-gain/

"On the final trading day of 2023, the NGX has rallied to a new high, as the All-Share Index appreciated by 0.36% to close at 74,773.77 points.

Achieving a year-to-date growth of 45.90% in 2023, the NGX closed the year on an impressive note, its best return since 2020, when the ASI grew by 50.03%"

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Nigerian Senate has approved ~90% of President Bola Tinubu’s ~$8 billion external borrowing plan covering 2022-2024.
The funds are earmarked for the development of critical areas such as infrastructure, agriculture, health, education, water supply, security, and employment, as well as financial management reforms.

https://nairametrics.com/2023/12/31/nigerian-senate-approves-89-7-of-tinubus-dollar-loan-request/

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation and biggest economy, aims to join BRICS within the next two (https://nairametrics.com/2023/11/23/nigeria-plans-to-become-a-member-of-brics-in-two-years-join-the-g20/) years, as stated by Minister of Foreign Affairs Yusuf Tuggar in November.
https://nairametrics.com/2023/12/29/brics-group-to-admit-5-new-countries-from-january-1-2024/

Cryptocurrency, old Naira notes, other protectionist Buhari’s policies reversed by Tinubu.
LIFTED BAN on cryptocurrency. Validity of the old currency extended indefinitely to prveent Naira scarcity, Lifted 8-year ban on 43 items (incl rice, cement and poultry, etc.) restricted from accessing fx from the official market. Buhari had also shut down land borders for years in order to protect the investment in the agricultural sector, particularly rice.
https://dailypost.ng/2023/12/31/cryptocurrency-old-naira-notes-other-buharis-policies-reversed-by-tinubu/

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N44bn fraud: EFCC freezes N30bn moved from NSIPA accounts

Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, has tracked and frozen N30 billion of the N44 billion moved from the accounts of the National Social Investment Programme Agency, NSIPA. The development comes barely 24 hours after Halima Shehu, the embattled National Coordinator of NSIPA, was detained and arrested by EFCC after her suspension by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
https://dailypost.ng/2024/01/04/n44bn-fraud-efcc-freezes-n30bn-moved-from-nsipa-accounts/

Meanwhile, Portharcourt refinery projected to come up in the first quarter of 2024 = 2 refineries in Nigeria, stopping FX drain on fuel imports

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Nigerian financial institutions, fintech, a blockchain firm, and the Africa Stablecoin Consortium have announced February 27, 2024, to unveil a Naira stablecoin known as cNGN.

The cNGN ushers in a new era of financial fluidity, bridging the Nigerian naira with the global market through blockchain technology. Backed 1:1 by Naira reserves held in designated commercial banks, the cNGN Stablecoin transforms the Naira into a dynamic tool for worldwide remittances, commerce, trade and investment.

CBN lifted the ban on cryptocurrency transactions in Nigeria in December last year, but has barred cash withdrawals and issued other guidelines on cryptocurrency accounts.
https://dailypost.ng/2024/01/06/nigerian-banks-fintech-announce-date-to-unveil-cngn-stablecoin/

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Tinubu suspends Minister Betta Edu over N585.189 scandal
https://dailypost.ng/2024/01/08/tinubu-suspends-minister-betta-edu-over-n585-189-scandal/#google_vignette

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Tinubu fires FCCPC, BPE bosses with immediate effect
https://dailypost.ng/2024/01/08/tinubu-fires-fccpc-bpe-bosses-with-imediate-effect/

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$6bn fraud: EFCC arraigns ex-Minister of Power and Steel Development Agunloye
https://dailypost.ng/2024/01/10/6bn-fraud-efcc-arraigns-ex-minister-of-power-and-steel-development-agunloye/#google_vignette

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Nigeria bringing fx trading back into public view, to narrow the gap between the official and unofficial rate of its naira currency.
The country’s financial crimes watchdog has given the Association of Bureaux de Change Operators of Nigeria the go-ahead to publicly post the buying and selling rates of the naira against the dollar online. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-23/nigeria-brings-forex-back-into-the-open-to-defeat-street-market

[GTM 3442]

Out of idle curiosity, what made the naïfs halve in value against the NZD this month? Must’ve blitzed a few ETFs.

[beacon]

Out of idle curiosity, what made the naïfs halve in value against the NZD this month? Must’ve blitzed a few ETFs.

Naira depreciated yet another third (~35%) to USD on NAFEX, the official fx window, following a revision of the methodology used to set exchange rate, in effect the 2nd (~35%) devaluation by a third to USD in 7 months, according to FMDQ which calculates the exchange rate, after CBN accused traders of manipulating the exchange rate by under-reporting transaction rates, and local banks of hoarding USD.

Strong USD, high interest rates on debt killing EM currencies, and US traders/ speculators cashing in on the situation. More reasons here: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2024/01/nigerias-inflation-rate-to-drop-to-23-in-2024-15-5-in-2025-imf/

[beacon]

Also, I think, Mairae - the Global X fund manager for NGE, has managed the Fund and currency conversions very poorly. They deserve to have a class action against them for destroying Investor Wealth further by very bad management

[GTM 3442]

Naira depreciated yet another third (~35%) to USD on NAFEX, the official fx window, following a revision of the methodology used to set exchange rate, in effect the 2nd (~35%) devaluation by a third to USD in 7 months, according to FMDQ which calculates the exchange rate, after CBN accused traders of manipulating the exchange rate by under-reporting transaction rates, and local banks of hoarding USD.

Strong USD, high interest rates on debt killing EM currencies, and US traders/ speculators cashing in on the situation. More reasons here: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2024/01/nigerias-inflation-rate-to-drop-to-23-in-2024-15-5-in-2025-imf/

Thanks beacon. So it's a case of the exchange rate wiping out any gains - not unlike Turkiye. . .

[Valuegrowth]

https://qz.com/383388/nigeria-is-the-only-african-country-whose-gdp-is-projected-to-reach-1-trillion-by-2030