View Full Version : Nzd usd
beacon
28-08-2023, 08:49 AM
NZ migration is up, OCR hikes are almost done, all sub 3%-4% mortgages will refix in the next 12 months, all bad news (lower milk prices, China issues, War, supply chain issues etc.) is out, and NZD has become oversold. Meanwhile, NZ exporters are benefitting, NZ is inching towards the next biggest market (for decades to come) India, and NZ election will soon be over.
Regardless of electoral outcome, NZ will remain an oasis of relative financial, social and political stability, and remain coveted by visitors and migrants for its inherent geological and perceptual advantages. Time to load up on NZD, I think... against a basket of currencies, and especially USD (which has benefitted greatly from the Fed Funds rate falls, and rises as well as global flight to safety since Covid)
stoploss
28-08-2023, 09:05 AM
NZ migration is up, OCR hikes are almost done, all sub 3%-4% mortgages will refix in the next 12 months, all bad news (lower milk prices, China issues, War, supply chain issues etc.) is out, and NZD has become oversold. Meanwhile, NZ exporters are benefitting, NZ is inching towards the next biggest market (for decades to come) India, and NZ election will soon be over.
Regardless of electoral outcome, NZ will remain an oasis of relative financial, social and political stability, and remain coveted by visitors and migrants for its inherent geological and perceptual advantages. Time to load up on NZD, I think... against a basket of currencies, and especially USD (which has benefitted greatly from the Fed Funds rate falls, and rises as well as global flight to safety since Covid)
Ok currently .5907 , I think it goes lower yet , wait till we see the Govt books ahead of the election .
beacon
29-08-2023, 12:13 PM
IMF: Reserve Bank’s money printing improved the Government’s books - a little https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/imf-reserve-banks-money-printing-improved-the-governments-books-a-little/QOKIGIO53FD3REJPAWMSTTJJJQ/
"Don't fret! Inflation is going away," says Orr.
beacon
29-08-2023, 01:08 PM
Ok currently .5907 , I think it goes lower yet , wait till we see the Govt books ahead of the election .
$4 billion of budget cuts... would be banked to offset deficits... to keep debt under 30% of gross domestic product and return the Crown accounts to surplus... This money would not be available to be reallocated into new initiatives. https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/123988/finance-minister-grant-robertson-said-money-saved-would-help-offset-growing
Daytr
06-09-2023, 08:36 AM
0.5860 overnight, Dairy auction up for the first time in 12 months.
Kiwi looks oversold to me so I have picked some up.
Daytr
06-09-2023, 07:05 PM
It didn't break 0.59 convincingly at time of writing so took a small profit.
Catching a falling knife came to mind so will monitor & maybe look to reset lower.
beacon
07-09-2023, 06:49 AM
0.5860 overnight, Dairy auction up for the first time in 12 months.
Kiwi looks oversold to me so I have picked some up.
I picked up some too, and will keep picking up now - especially if it falls further. :t_up:
Daytr
07-09-2023, 08:25 AM
I picked up some too, and will keep picking up now - especially if it falls further. :t_up:
Yeah I think it might head towards 0.5650 so will keep an eye on it for a re-entry level.
The current balance of payments means there is a constant sale of NZD every month.
The US will peak at some point, probably relatively soon. The US also seems to be ahead of NZ in the fight against inflation so the FED may pivot before NZ.
beacon
11-09-2023, 08:48 AM
Yeah I think it might head towards 0.5650 so will keep an eye on it for a re-entry level.
The current balance of payments means there is a constant sale of NZD every month.
The US will peak at some point, probably relatively soon. The US also seems to be ahead of NZ in the fight against inflation so the FED may pivot before NZ.
By strengthening the USD, higher US interest rates stimulate other economies’ exports. This makes the kind of global recession that so many predicted even less likely.
If you take away the reason for "flight to safety = USD", and NZ exports are becoming more competitive due to currently weaker NZD, you have a surprise building for NZD shorters.
Daytr
11-09-2023, 06:27 PM
By strengthening the USD, higher US interest rates stimulate other economies’ exports. This makes the kind of global recession that so many predicted even less likely.
If you take away the reason for "flight to safety = USD", and NZ exports are becoming more competitive due to currently weaker NZD, you have a surprise building for NZD shorters.
Agreed re flight to safety, but NZ is a net importer so the balance of payments each month is against you.
The NZD seems to have stabilized and has finally broken back above 0.59 as I write.
But the chart still doesn't look great.
It's far more likely that it will be a USD move than an NZD move that breaks the trend.
It's quite a good move here against the dollar so it will be interesting to see if it is a turning point.
If the dollar does turn it does make me wonder where oil might end up.
beacon
12-09-2023, 07:31 AM
Agreed re flight to safety, but NZ is a net importer so the balance of payments each month is against you.
It's far more likely that it will be a USD move than an NZD move that breaks the trend.
Agreed about the chart, and that it will primarily be a USD move. But US is a net importer so the balance of payments each month is against them too.
A weaker domestic currency stimulates exports and makes imports more expensive. This can suppress import demand, and can be disinflationary.
A strong domestic currency hinders exports and makes imports cheaper. This can boost import demand, can be inflationary, aggravate BoP, and deficits.
Daytr
12-09-2023, 09:04 AM
Agreed about the chart, and that it will primarily be a USD move. But US is a net importer so the balance of payments each month is against them too.
A weaker domestic currency stimulates exports and makes imports more expensive. This can suppress import demand, and can be disinflationary.
A strong domestic currency hinders exports and makes imports cheaper. This can boost import demand, can be inflationary, aggravate BoP, and deficits.
Yes all that is true, it's just a matter of picking when. Biden's war on shale oil should mean over time US oil production will curtail which will also tip that BoP equation.
blackcap
12-09-2023, 06:03 PM
Yes all that is true, it's just a matter of picking when. Biden's war on shale oil should mean over time US oil production will curtail which will also tip that BoP equation.
Lets go Brandon!
Not really sure if he will be there come November 24.
beacon
13-09-2023, 12:38 PM
Ok currently .5907 , I think it goes lower yet , wait till we see the Govt books ahead of the election .
ANZ also concedes with a surprise that economic outlook has had a small upgrade...
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976522235/nz-sharemarket-steadies-after-govt-opens-the-books.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+12+Sep+ 2023
Daytr
15-09-2023, 09:29 AM
ANZ also concedes with a surprise that economic outlook has had a small upgrade...
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976522235/nz-sharemarket-steadies-after-govt-opens-the-books.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+12+Sep+ 2023
My view is the economic reality of the dairy payout & higher interest rates are still to play out. Again though it may have nothing much to do with the outlook for NZ if the USD turns which it will at some point.
winner69
15-09-2023, 10:06 AM
My view is the economic reality of the dairy payout & higher interest rates are still to play out. Again though it may have nothing much to do with the outlook for NZ if the USD turns which it will at some point.
Don’t forget about El Niño ….last real powerful El Niño was 1997/98 …the 2015/16 was a relatively mild event
NZD went below USD40 cents following that 97/98 El Niño
Daytr
15-09-2023, 10:47 AM
Don’t forget about El Niño ….last real powerful El Niño was 1997/98 …the 2015/16 was a relatively mild event
NZD went below USD40 cents following that 97/98 El Niño
I'm not sure if you are having a laugh or being serious?
Nothing to do with the Asian Financial Crisis at the time then?
Mind you I have seen predictions of droughts for this summer which certainly won't make it any easier on the Dairy farmers if that does eventuate.
winner69
15-09-2023, 11:12 AM
I'm not sure if you are having a laugh or being serious?
Nothing to do with the Asian Financial Crisis at the time then?
Mind you I have seen predictions of droughts for this summer which certainly won't make it any easier on the Dairy farmers if that does eventuate.
El Niño in 97/98 caused one long widespread drought and put NZ into a (deep) recession ……tough times they were with not only rural sector affected
beacon
21-09-2023, 11:28 AM
"But now, the turnaround has begun and the deficit has shrunk over the past two quarters."
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/124388/new-zealands-current-account-deficit-shrinks-more-economists-predicted
Interesting that while US deficit has been expanding and will continue to expand under Bidenomics, NZ deficit has been shrinking, and will shrink more - given some austerity finally seeping into bipartisan NZ leaders. Bodes well for NZD:USD
beacon
22-09-2023, 03:25 AM
What? No NZ recession?
New Zealand's economy grew 0.9% in the June quarter and avoided recession altogether
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/124405/new-zealands-economy-grew-09-june-quarter-and-avoided-recession-altogether
beacon
26-09-2023, 05:52 AM
Billionaires club ‘refocuses’ on New Zealand
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/property/billionaires-club-refocuses-on-new-zealand?utm_source=nzh&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=nzh-home (https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/property/billionaires-club-refocuses-on-new-zealand?utm_source=nzh&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=nzh-home)
Realtors in the luxury end of the market say there’s been resurgent interest in New Zealand as a relatively well-priced haven for tech, construction and other billionaires. That assumes a National-led government takes the reins next month. Realtor Caleb Paterson, who works with a number of offshore agents and high net-worth individuals mainly out of the US and UK markets, said interest had “definitely perked up" ...
Smart Money likes NZ again. About time... :t_up:
beacon
26-09-2023, 11:19 AM
ANZ reckons house prices will now lift 4% over the second half of this year. This is up 1% from its previous forecast of 3%
https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/976522285/house-price-rises-revised-upwards?utm_source=LL&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Landlords+Daily+News+for+26+Sep+2023
Will be interesting to see whether the pent up demand for houses/ homes starts pushing up the market now in anticipation of National win, or after the election
beacon
27-09-2023, 11:21 AM
ANZ Truckometer monitoring threw up something of a surprise result - there was a "late winter flurry" of activity, belying the doomsters.
Not only was that seen in more car traffic, the commercial traffic "rebounded" sharply in August from July.
https://d321bl9io865gk.cloudfront.net/view?src=https%3A%2F%2Fanz-singletrack.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com%2FANZ_NZ_Truckometer_a_late_winter _flurry.pdf%3FX-Amz-Algorithm%3DAWS4-HMAC-SHA256%26X-Amz-Credential%3DAKIAZGZPZQBPX2SV22UN%2F20230926%2Fap-southeast-2%2Fs3%2Faws4_request%26X-Amz-Date%3D20230926T000000Z%26X-Amz-Expires%3D86400%26X-Amz-Signature%3Ded40cfdb747e787327376debebf8b14124a696 c1dee9271ce487dd95a2ffcacf%26X-Amz-SignedHeaders%3Dhost&data=ovwufXH9Yz4CmEweBBFXX3LRNkX2NydITCefBZm0rXbv% 2FwH20UlZVdcUXjvJy%2BId2kn4FYAdLhQHk8a1crCwBfcUxeR XQf%2B%2BESa07M7V4eR5%2FExs8cVr0ff%2BoyrhyVHb&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fpublications.anz.com%2F&namespaced=true&aid=a0NOa000000pHobMAE&perms=copy-paste;download;print;related-research&perms_sign=EwDY0R33E%2BgV7PDp3G1OO7NchFv9DtSosXb9x uheNkzz9%2BoK5DMVELWqPN23UXJfwHUwSE7z4Fk1esE22a5hH rPT0oxO5wmCRoqOM%2Bb8REofOT3d0bZzCeSBqnVuYEBbf3dpZ 5m6aNrlZCB4QldcnIUKKFUJ7gEPz4cpqVqMu%2BQ%3D×tamp=1695691227&rating_opts={%22ratingValue%22:%220%22,%22ratingTy pe%22:%22star%22}
beacon
28-09-2023, 02:44 PM
NZD has slipped 7.5% since its july peak of .6394 and the doom and gloom news is also reflected in the NZ employment confidence slipping in the Westpac-MM survey.
At the same time, in the same period, the Baltic Dry Index has been substantially improving. JP Morgan has even upgraded China growth on the back of recent industrial profits improvements.
As realization dawns on Kiwi trading desks and commentators, we should begin reverting to the mean. This will need the election outcome to be sure, but testing .61 before election is now quite possible.
Daytr
30-09-2023, 03:06 PM
Kiwi has definitely shown some strength during the last week. Could be displaying a top out of the USD.
Kiwi has definitely shown some strength during the last week. Could be displaying a top out of the USD.
Yeh thanks for that genius update.
beacon
01-10-2023, 08:32 AM
Could be displaying a top out of the USD.
There is definitely increasing chatter of USD topping out soon, amongst leading US trading desks, but USD has risen against a basket of currencies like Yen, Euro, GBP, AUD etc. in the last month. On the other hand, NZD defied the USD last month. If National wins, I expect we'll settle well north of .62 in the short term.
beacon
02-10-2023, 08:12 AM
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index now back above its early 2022 levels.
Remarkably, even as mortgage holders continue to roll onto higher rates, it’s NO LONGER a case of things feeling ever worse for households with debt.
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/124530/latest-anz-roy-morgan-survey-consumer-sentiment-doesnt-find-much-spring-step
Daytr
02-10-2023, 09:17 AM
Yeh thanks for that genius update.
Keep it up champ. You will banned again for tge constant trolling and derogatory comments.
Are you on the ban rotation list with SailorRob?
Keep it up champ. You will banned again for tge constant trolling and derogatory comments.
Are you on the ban rotation list with SailorRob?
You're full of crap. You're not an "international day trader" as you've told people. And your updates on the state of various markets and economic conditions are pathetic.
Daytr
02-10-2023, 10:56 AM
You're full of crap. You're not an "international day trader" as you've told people. And your updates on the state of various markets and economic conditions are pathetic.
Don't you get tired of your little childish tantrums?
I'm sure everyone else has.
Grow up!
Don't you get tired of your little childish tantrums?
I'm sure everyone else has.
Grow up!
Lying that you're an "international day trader" disqualifies you from making any statement or "update" on this site regarding anything related to markets. Naive people may listen to the nonsense you spout, and action on it.
stoploss
02-10-2023, 04:05 PM
There is definitely increasing chatter of USD topping out soon, amongst leading US trading desks, but USD has risen against a basket of currencies like Yen, Euro, GBP, AUD etc. in the last month. On the other hand, NZD defied the USD last month. If National wins, I expect we'll settle well north of .62 in the short term.
Think the market will have a Nat's victory fully priced in by now ...time will tell. Might be a case of Buy the Rumour,Sell the fact ........
Current NZ/USD .5991
beacon
03-10-2023, 08:32 AM
Think the market will have a Nat's victory fully priced in by now ...time will tell. Might be a case of Buy the Rumour,Sell the fact ........
Current NZ/USD .5991
Might be, but most people can't see things until they are right in front of their eyes. NZD is oversold, so I doubt Nat victory is priced-in even slightly ...
beacon
03-10-2023, 09:03 AM
Might be, but most people can't see things until they are right in front of their eyes. NZD is oversold, so I doubt Nat victory is priced-in even slightly ...
Neither are dairy price improvements of late. Big moo-ve expected as dairy futures point to another gain at GDT auction
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/dairy-futures-point-to-another-big-gain-at-gdt-auction/2T5BHHKTC5GJRA753ZL7O4WTJY/
Daytr
03-10-2023, 01:28 PM
I get the feeling that markets still have one decent push down in them which I wouldn't be surprised to see this month.
US equity markets I think can still go lower & with it the USD might gain further still.
The NZD I think needs to revisit sub 56c for me to get excited.
beacon
04-10-2023, 03:06 PM
The NZD I think needs to revisit sub 56c for me to get excited.
Might be a long wait if you want to buy at a 5 year low!
I see no good reason why NZD would create a new 5 year low in the near-term. In fact, I see no reason why NZD needs to be below 63c in a strengthening economy, despite all the cautious commentary...
Even at 63c, it would be 16% below its .7465 peak - so still a long way down to keep the perma bears happy.
stoploss
04-10-2023, 04:05 PM
Might be a long wait if you want to buy at a 5 year low!
I see no good reason why NZD would create a new 5 year low in the near-term. In fact, I see no reason why NZD needs to be below 63c in a strengthening economy, despite all the cautious commentary...
Even at 63c, it would be 16% below its .7465 peak - so still a long way down to keep the perma bears happy.
.7465 high ? Was circa 88 cents in 2015 …..
Daytr
04-10-2023, 05:24 PM
Might be a long wait if you want to buy at a 5 year low!
I see no good reason why NZD would create a new 5 year low in the near-term. In fact, I see no reason why NZD needs to be below 63c in a strengthening economy, despite all the cautious commentary...
Even at 63c, it would be 16% below its .7465 peak - so still a long way down to keep the perma bears happy.
Actually the Kiwi hit about 55c only a little over a year ago.
beacon
05-10-2023, 06:30 AM
.7465 high ? Was circa 88 cents in 2015 …..
It was indeed, which makes 63c almost 30% down from that high...
By the way, my post was about the high in most recent 5 years.
beacon
05-10-2023, 06:40 AM
Actually the Kiwi hit about 55c only a little over a year ago.
Quite right, and even .5469 about 3 years ago, but a lot of water has flown under the bridge since then.
NZ economy is on a surer footing, Covid and its related global uncertainty and economic lockdowns are behind us.
What in the current stronger environment makes NZD merit venturing into the 5 year low ranges.
In fact, if NZ gets its act together on India partnership and FTAs, we should be well above the long-term mean, and back in the .70s again
Entrep
05-10-2023, 11:53 AM
56c seems quite improbable. Hard to see it going under .585 / recent lows. Happy to hear other opinions though
beacon
05-10-2023, 03:27 PM
56c seems quite improbable. Hard to see it going under .585 / recent lows. Happy to hear other opinions though
Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr sees it at 55c by Christmas 2023. He might want to review his Target Price up though, seeing that the ANZ World Commodity Price Index gained 1.3% in September (ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner's note out today) after trending lower for the previous three months. The lift, although modest, was BROAD_BASED with ALL MAJOR SECTORS, except horticulture, lifting. https://watermarker.singletrack.io/ANZ_NZ_Commodity_Price_Index_heading_in_the_right_ direction.pdf?data=DhZAW5pNirsgovBdALYwogjcrWZAB6D XgwQPV%2F%2FR4Y8c2U5HXzipnPnjShFNDgLRga0%2Fl4fXY0u 7%2BiuK0FSiPf3f8DqlXlWyAWUBt2mmlUcmGX0Tmofdze32IzI 0sbKpaBMEZUD7S%2F2VYgKJnbdN2FJMPoVP9VYDsZf5LGDP%2B MYZyxvok9W47IHNOLcmxksccbtDDVAp1cj47Yi7PLfv7%2FuMz C22fyQyTXM3E2tuUWEhhOOFEYwy4kpoRed3MvDXbFdjC7enU2a EizYYuoMsWUf77O3aXWu%2Ff62OI05yJ%2FLDYn2oppGOdJbGR MNVhZ%2F4HDo7Y6GHPF2gP9Kiq3oeP1CRYt9P82A2kiTAWNNlX x4sDMuqiN1WEEb3ij9%2FIlOTL4PuDDz1lkSpYQoIJnV7zYI3Z 9f2HiMpt1jCqI6j2ouGaeB59CoZFFk%2FDgsDkQqVTAu1gefNH nELMwtG2XA88Vn8kc8lV7OZ2FkcrIxzWoqXoJXvyGgJkLRIEX4 KZdIjgkkZnYD6lM90pj5frQMc0LGcyJVmsHCBwmE%2B7w3WiXE MSzr36JYJ7%2Ffaqwn%2FkeynfeFu54kj8e6tJsAhGiczdqKEj 2%2F0BDyKU55h2tuHRXkZs%2BeMRp112gaf0pml1xR0sglRLwS u%2FKAvxDiB0bDmjXprOAhaD%2F5OkpQ9DvcqLvGtJa3AfJMdT 7%2B5epJVdEJ6voGVJzl1IVW%2F4Bt2%2FxgXIMWcBDyE%2BNY IvN9NzgqTvOK0ePs7kuZzsBgcpfSeH118%2Fcbc8nkv3LRreal byqpckhviXOn6TeINzjUCgeegkxJB2BlZsefse7go2CFVBIh6r hAw9VAD%2FgQnFyVuXZhIq5GzDdUfaewIY0OtC5ZUpS8cUSiAs HwUBNcFLM5WOi2Wr072KLJPUMtI6mexz0ECEA%3D%3D&s3Url=https%3A%2F%2Fanz-singletrack.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com%2FANZ_NZ_Commodity_Price_Index_hea ding_in_the_right_direction.pdf%3FX-Amz-Signature%3D010fbb2bc0bff3cbddd59ec989fcab315996f7 077ca29c612ffd62fa409c7342%26X-Amz-Algorithm%3DAWS4-HMAC-SHA256%26X-Amz-Credential%3DAKIAZGZPZQBPX2SV22UN%252F20231005%252 Fap-southeast-2%252Fs3%252Faws4_request%26X-Amz-Date%3D20231005T000000Z%26X-Amz-Expires%3D86400%26X-Amz-SignedHeaders%3Dhost
beacon
06-10-2023, 11:35 AM
The New Zealand economy has remained resilient in these uncertain times, with unemployment well below thelong-term average and the economy nearly 8 percent larger than before the start of the pandemic. The economyhas also benefited from growing exports, the return of tourists and international students and rising numbers ofskilled overseas workers to help businesses fill job vacancies. Free trade agreements now cover almost threequarters of New Zealand’s exports, up from less than half six years ago.New Zealand has a solid base as we face the challenges ahead...
Straight from the horse's mouth. So, NO reason why we should be revisiting Covid lows (and multiple reasons to come, as to why we should already be on our way reverting to the long-term NZD:USD mean ... https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2023-10/fsgnz-2023.pdf
beacon
10-10-2023, 06:08 AM
Fonterra said it had raised its 2023/24 forecast farmgate milk price range to $6.50 - $8.00 per kgMS, with a new midpoint of $7.25 per kgMS, up 50 cents, reflecting better supply and demand dynamics.
In addition, recent Global Dairy Trade auctions (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/the-country/news/global-dairy-trade-auction-third-rise-in-a-row-lifts-farmers-spirits/EPAFRKYIXBDZTID243OWUBCVJ4/) had shown better demand. Third rise in a row lifts farmers’ spirits... https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/fonterra-ups-milk-price-forecast-to-725kg-midpoint/K7YSP7M4IZDVJENI7LFPK6SLEM/
beacon
12-10-2023, 08:16 AM
A record number of migrants is one factor that might keep interest rates higher for longer.
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/economy/rise-in-migrants-may-help-keep-interest-rates-high?utm_source=nzh&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=nzh-home
Daytr
13-10-2023, 01:33 PM
So we could be in limbo for a week or two whilst negotiations are going on with Winston. Already priced in?
beacon
14-10-2023, 07:41 AM
So we could be in limbo for a week or two whilst negotiations are going on with Winston. Already priced in?
Definitely some element of that in NZD performance in the last three days, as NZD suffered more than most other currencies versus USD.
Also, USD benefitting as safe haven temporarily due to the raging Israel- Palestine War
So, volatility in the near term if horse trading happens, but the long term is UP :)
So, volatility in the near term if horse trading happens, but the long term is UP :)
Curious....What do you mean by the "long term" beacon? When you look at the weekly price chart over the last 12 months, she's clearly been trending DOWN since Jan, to now be sitting on 12 mth lows.
Valuegrowth
14-10-2023, 10:02 AM
Fed could begin cutting interest rates in 2024. We should see gradual strenth in NZD from 2024 onwards.
Definitely some element of that in NZD performance in the last three days, as NZD suffered more than most other currencies versus USD.
Also, USD benefitting as safe haven temporarily due to the raging Israel- Palestine War
So, volatility in the near term if horse trading happens, but the long term is UP :)
beacon
14-10-2023, 02:11 PM
Curious....What do you mean by the "long term" beacon? When you look at the weekly price chart over the last 12 months, she's clearly been trending DOWN since Jan, to now be sitting on 12 mth lows.
Indeed she has, but what goes down comes up too, and vice versa - depending on changes in perception, fundamentals, technicals, comparisons with competing currency baskets etc. or a combination of two or more of these varied factors. No trend lasts forever, good or bad, and NZ economy merits no rational economic reason why NZD should be revisiting 5-year lows again, as some have predicted/ desire.
I have been signaling some of the changes happening in the ground reality for NZD in the recent past, and you already know the long-term core competencies of NZ as a nation. We punch above our economic weight in the world GDP for a reason, and that hasn't changed for the worse either. I expect NZD reversion to its long-term mean in the long term, and a rise above its long-term mean if our Government can do what is required to boost NZ trade relationships and Trade agreements with India. Hope this clarifies ...
Indeed she has, but what goes down comes up too, and vice versa - depending on changes in perception, fundamentals, technicals, comparisons with competing currency baskets etc. or a combination of two or more of these varied factors. No trend lasts forever, good or bad, and NZ economy merits no rational economic reason why NZD should be revisiting 5-year lows again, as some have predicted/ desire.
I have been signaling some of the changes happening in the ground reality for NZD in the recent past, and you already know the long-term core competencies of NZ as a nation. We punch above our economic weight in the world GDP for a reason, and that hasn't changed for the worse either. I expect NZD reversion to its long-term mean in the long term, and a rise above its long-term mean if our Government can do what is required to boost NZ trade relationships and Trade agreements with India. Hope this clarifies ...
Not really beacon.
But perhaps you are just taking the mickey, with that rather long winded, cliche-laden, non-answer? Or maybe you are giving yourself & your 'predictions' as much wriggle room & margin of error possible? ;)
So yeah, my original question still stands unanswered. What do you actually mean by the "long term"? Once we better appreciate what you mean by long-term, then I suspect that will give your predictions much more clarity & definition. Less opaque.
Perhaps look at it this way. In the context of the predictions you are stating here re the NZD/USD, does your "long-term" mean days, weeks, months, years or perhaps decades?
BTW. In regards to your rationale that you write to support your hypothesis that the NZD will "now go up in the long term"(whatever time period that is), I would simply say, "maybe, maybe not".
Lest also not forget that, often the other side of the NZDUSD pair asserts FAR, FAR more influence on what cross rate is printed, compared to what little old NZ Inc does or doesn't do.
winner69
14-10-2023, 04:33 PM
NZD one of most traded currencies in world ….think it gripped out of top 10 last year but still not too bad for little old NZ
winner69
14-10-2023, 05:57 PM
Maybe 55 is on cards next week ….bad week this week
beacon
15-10-2023, 07:42 AM
... maybe you are giving yourself & your 'predictions' as much wriggle room & margin of error possible? ;) I'm an observer, not an insider - so yeah, I'm cautious.
... clarity & definition. Less opaque. You may want to read my earlier posts. They have events, reasons, references.
...does your "long-term" mean days, weeks, months, years or perhaps decades? Months for the reversion to mean, years for shooting above long-term mean - both, if Government does what it needs to do, especially with India. I reserve the right to be wrong. Interesting, that you do understand "long-term" when I say "long-term mean" :)
I would simply say, "maybe, maybe not". Now, wasn't that "just taking the mickey, with that rather long winded, cliche-laden, non-answer? Or maybe you are giving yourself & your 'predictions' as much wriggle room & margin of error possible? ;)". Don't just simply say the outcome. Have the courage to lay out your reasons. We shall all benefit from another perspective.
Lest also not forget that, often the other side of the NZDUSD pair asserts FAR, FAR more influence on what cross rate is printed, compared to what little old NZ Inc does or doesn't do. Agree, but that is no excuse to NOT DO what we as a country (Government, Corporate, Citizen) should be doing. Goliath is big and awesome, but have some faith in li'l old David too.
beacon
15-10-2023, 07:51 AM
Maybe 55 is on cards next week ….bad week this week
Hope it continues to fall to that level. I have my powder dry... :t_up:
beacon
15-10-2023, 10:06 AM
Maybe 55 is on cards next week ….bad week this week
14788
Range-bound volatility exhibiting in the near-term chart, despite a black swan (Israel-Palestine War started over a week ago).
Probably a NZD gap up open on Monday, and beginning of reversion to mean - once National Government confirmed in 3 weeks...
Risks: Iran, Hezbollah or Saudi martial involvement in MidEast War theatre - not just political posturing and noise!
I'm an observer, not an insider - so yeah, I'm cautious....
...Months for the reversion to mean, years for shooting above long-term mean - both, if Government does what it needs to do, especially with India. I reserve the right to be wrong. Interesting, that you do understand "long-term" when I say "long-term mean" :)
... no excuse to NOT DO what we as a country (Government, Corporate, Citizen) should be doing. Goliath is big and awesome, but have some faith in li'l old David too.
Thanks for the reply beacon.
I have no strong views to offer, either way, on the "long term" (years +) travels of the NZDUSD.
Far too many "unknowns" (e.g. how many of the fiscal skeletons in the Lab Govt Cupboard are going to be revealed over the next few months?) & too many variables (e.g. geopolitical).
Over the shorter term (up to 12 mths), however, my opinion is that we will likely see continued strength in the USD (a contrarian view, I accept), which, historically, tends to inhibit the kiwi from taking meaningful flight. Hence, IMV, I expect to see the kiwi trading inside the range of 55-65 cents over the next 12 months.
beacon
16-10-2023, 08:20 AM
Thanks for sharing your perspective FTG. It would be interesting to watch what NZD does from here.
Business confidence bump expected on election result
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/election-2023-business-confidence-bump-expected-on-election-result-but-no-quick-fix-for-economy/SDT7VUM6FBDH3ETIWNGCTC4COA/
This should help point NZD in the right direction again, after last Thursday-Friday's reversal of its journey towards reversion to long-term mean.
beacon
16-10-2023, 08:28 AM
NZD starts the week by reversing recent losses - post election result.
14792
beacon
18-10-2023, 06:30 AM
Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr sees it at 55c by Christmas 2023. He might want to review his Target Price up though, seeing that the ANZ World Commodity Price Index gained 1.3% in September (ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner's note out today) after trending lower for the previous three months. The lift, although modest, was BROAD_BASED with ALL MAJOR SECTORS, except horticulture, lifting. https://watermarker.singletrack.io/ANZ_NZ_Commodity_Price_Index_heading_in_the_right_ direction.pdf?data=DhZAW5pNirsgovBdALYwogjcrWZAB6D XgwQPV%2F%2FR4Y8c2U5HXzipnPnjShFNDgLRga0%2Fl4fXY0u 7%2BiuK0FSiPf3f8DqlXlWyAWUBt2mmlUcmGX0Tmofdze32IzI 0sbKpaBMEZUD7S%2F2VYgKJnbdN2FJMPoVP9VYDsZf5LGDP%2B MYZyxvok9W47IHNOLcmxksccbtDDVAp1cj47Yi7PLfv7%2FuMz C22fyQyTXM3E2tuUWEhhOOFEYwy4kpoRed3MvDXbFdjC7enU2a EizYYuoMsWUf77O3aXWu%2Ff62OI05yJ%2FLDYn2oppGOdJbGR MNVhZ%2F4HDo7Y6GHPF2gP9Kiq3oeP1CRYt9P82A2kiTAWNNlX x4sDMuqiN1WEEb3ij9%2FIlOTL4PuDDz1lkSpYQoIJnV7zYI3Z 9f2HiMpt1jCqI6j2ouGaeB59CoZFFk%2FDgsDkQqVTAu1gefNH nELMwtG2XA88Vn8kc8lV7OZ2FkcrIxzWoqXoJXvyGgJkLRIEX4 KZdIjgkkZnYD6lM90pj5frQMc0LGcyJVmsHCBwmE%2B7w3WiXE MSzr36JYJ7%2Ffaqwn%2FkeynfeFu54kj8e6tJsAhGiczdqKEj 2%2F0BDyKU55h2tuHRXkZs%2BeMRp112gaf0pml1xR0sglRLwS u%2FKAvxDiB0bDmjXprOAhaD%2F5OkpQ9DvcqLvGtJa3AfJMdT 7%2B5epJVdEJ6voGVJzl1IVW%2F4Bt2%2FxgXIMWcBDyE%2BNY IvN9NzgqTvOK0ePs7kuZzsBgcpfSeH118%2Fcbc8nkv3LRreal byqpckhviXOn6TeINzjUCgeegkxJB2BlZsefse7go2CFVBIh6r hAw9VAD%2FgQnFyVuXZhIq5GzDdUfaewIY0OtC5ZUpS8cUSiAs HwUBNcFLM5WOi2Wr072KLJPUMtI6mexz0ECEA%3D%3D&s3Url=https%3A%2F%2Fanz-singletrack.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com%2FANZ_NZ_Commodity_Price_Index_hea ding_in_the_right_direction.pdf%3FX-Amz-Signature%3D010fbb2bc0bff3cbddd59ec989fcab315996f7 077ca29c612ffd62fa409c7342%26X-Amz-Algorithm%3DAWS4-HMAC-SHA256%26X-Amz-Credential%3DAKIAZGZPZQBPX2SV22UN%252F20231005%252 Fap-southeast-2%252Fs3%252Faws4_request%26X-Amz-Date%3D20231005T000000Z%26X-Amz-Expires%3D86400%26X-Amz-SignedHeaders%3Dhost
New Zealand is finally “winning the war” on inflation, Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr says, "no more rate hikes needed"
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nz-winning-the-war-on-inflation-no-more-rate-hikes-needed-kiwibank-says/NMOPHHJ5BVGFXDAQ6UH42OMYUQ/
Further rate hikes look to be off the table. The chance of any further rate hike dropped from around 84% to 40%, according to BNZ Bank's head of research, Stephen Toplis. A first-rate cut is now priced in for February 2025, a few months earlier than previously.
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/economy/further-rate-hikes-look-to-be-off-the-table?utm_source=nzh&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=nzh-home
A strengthening economy can't have a weakening currency (for long).
beacon
18-10-2023, 07:46 AM
More money printing and balance sheet expansion on the way?
U.S. can ‘certainly’ afford military support to both Israel and Ukraine, Janet Yellen says
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/16/us-can-certainly-afford-military-support-to-both-israel-and-ukraine-janet-yellen-says.html
Sure she can? Debt is near or higher than 100% of output in USA (and in UK and Italy too, so not sure how much QE Europe can do to fund Israel)). Ageing populations, rising pensions, climate change management and geopolitical risks such as wars in Ukraine, Middle East (and potentially South East Asia) mean significant spending pressures ahead. Add to that higher interest rates "higher for longer", and you have an accelerating serviceability bleed. Yet, the USD rises... ??
Daytr
18-10-2023, 08:07 AM
New Zealand is finally “winning the war” on inflation, Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr says, "no more rate hikes needed"
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nz-winning-the-war-on-inflation-no-more-rate-hikes-needed-kiwibank-says/NMOPHHJ5BVGFXDAQ6UH42OMYUQ/
Further rate hikes look to be off the table. The chance of any further rate hike dropped from around 84% to 40%, according to BNZ Bank's head of research, Stephen Toplis. A first-rate cut is now priced in for February 2025, a few months earlier than previously.
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/economy/further-rate-hikes-look-to-be-off-the-table?utm_source=nzh&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=nzh-home
A strengthening economy can't have a weakening currency (for long).
In the current environment I would suggest lower inflation which in turn will mean interest rates have peaked and will likely be reduced sooner than only recently thought are all negatives for the Kiwi.
The recent dairy auctions may help offset some of that.
A bit like US equity markets, I think the views are mixed and there is no clear direction from here.
winner69
18-10-2023, 08:58 AM
In the current environment I would suggest lower inflation which in turn will mean interest rates have peaked and will likely be reduced sooner than only recently thought are all negatives for the Kiwi.
The recent dairy auctions may help offset some of that.
A bit like US equity markets, I think the views are mixed and there is no clear direction from here.
Orr a wimp (and has a political bias) …should have raised rates last month but didn’t …needs to raise rates next month but won’t ……so Feb 2024 will be a big shock when forced to raise.
Even RBA talking raising rates in a few weeks time.
Inflation is here to stay for longer than we want.
beacon
18-10-2023, 11:14 AM
Inflation is here to stay for longer than we want.
Tech is deflationary, and so is immigration. Oil flared up due to Israel action, but pressure building on Israel to cease fire.
Back home also, record migration continues - which is deflationary. https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/124800/almost-200000-people-arrived-new-zealand-work-visas-12-months-september
Inflation is no longer the only game in Town.
Despite the current jawboning, Reserve Banks around the world are looking for an excuse to cut. A strong USD is hurting everyone, including I suspect the US, and refinancing interest rates are beginning to bite global borrowers harder - including in US.
beacon
18-10-2023, 11:22 AM
Luxon says tax cuts will definitely go ahead - to deliver tax relief for low and middle income New Zealanders.
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/124792/incoming-national-party-prime-minister-christopher-luxon-reiterates-commitment-tax
ACT leader David Seymour is known to be strongly focused on reducing government spending, arguing this will help fight inflation.
Hope they deliver the accountability they espouse.
beacon
18-10-2023, 11:39 AM
Orr a wimp (and has a political bias) …should have raised rates last month but didn’t …needs to raise rates next month but won’t ……so Feb 2024 will be a big shock when forced to raise.
I didn't like Orr leading the global pack in raising rates early and fast, but to his credit, he proved to be prescient.
Those high interest rates are hurting, so he (or US Fed, for that matter) should NOT be raising rates further at all (US Inflation already down to 2.3%).
14795
beacon
19-10-2023, 06:37 AM
Those high interest rates are hurting, so he (or US Fed, for that matter) should NOT be raising rates further at all14795
A slight majority still see a cut before the middle of 2024
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-done-hiking-rates-higher-longer-message-gaining-traction-2023-10-18/
Fed's Waller: can wait on data to decide on rate path
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-waller-wait-data-decide-160244333.html
In a strong signal that the Federal Reserve won't raise interest rates at its next meeting, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, one of the Fed's most hawkish policymakers, said he wants to "wait, watch and see" ... "Should the real side of the economy soften, we will have more room to wait on any further rate hikes and let the recent run-up on longer-term rates do some of our work."
beacon
19-10-2023, 08:24 AM
14796
Latest dairy auction (https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/) higher 4th time in a row - prices up 4% this time, recovering all the falls since May 2023.
ASB and Westpac analysts upgrade their payout forecasts (https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/124830/economists-are-upgrading-their-milk-price-forecasts-again-after-further-recovery).
NZD should be north of 62c
winner69
19-10-2023, 08:32 AM
Lots of red down arrows for nzd this morning
Heading to 55/56
beacon
19-10-2023, 08:40 AM
A strong USD is hurting everyone, ... and refinancing interest rates are beginning to bite global borrowers harder
Losses for G10 majors were broad based, especially NZD (:confused:). Substantial weakness also now - in some emerging market currencies. ..
beacon
19-10-2023, 08:42 AM
Lots of red down arrows for nzd this morning
Heading to 55/56
I'm buying. I'd rather be holding NZD at these prices, than the "safe haven" freely-printed US paper :)
stoploss
19-10-2023, 08:44 AM
Might be, but most people can't see things until they are right in front of their eyes. NZD is oversold, so I doubt Nat victory is priced-in even slightly ...
Beacon , are you ready to concede the market had this priced in ?
No manner of talking it up by you is going to move the market .
beacon
19-10-2023, 09:10 AM
Beacon , are you ready to concede the market had this priced in ?
No, National victory has not been priced in at all - in fact, yesterday's market action could even be construed as market disliking/ disapproving of National win. :p
None of all the other good news that's been happening, has been price in either IMO. What you see is momentum from yield increase in long-dated US securities...
Some pretty big moves in benchmark bond rates globally, courtesy of "higher for longer" sinking in...
5-year Treasury moved as high as 4.937%, its top level since 2007.
10-year Treasury yield breaks above 4.9% for the first time since 2007 https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/18/us-treasury-yields-investors-weigh-economic-data.html
30-year fixed mortgage rate just hit 8% for the first time since 2000 https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/18/30-year-fixed-mortgage-rate-just-hit-8percent-for-the-first-time-since-2000.html
No manner of talking it up by you is going to move the market .
At least I try. God loves a trier. Have patience... all good things come to those who wait :)
Entrep
19-10-2023, 09:16 AM
Are you guys trading this pair or thinking longer-term / hedging?
Anything under 60c is great selling/hedging IMO. Look at the long-term chart.
beacon
19-10-2023, 09:40 AM
The Chinese economy expanded by +4.9% (http://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202310/t20231018_1943654.html) in Q3-2023 from a year ago, slowing from +6.3% in Q2 but beating market forecasts of +4.4%. For a country as large as China, that is a big up surprise. Retail sales (http://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202310/t20231018_1943658.html) climbed by +5.5% in September from a year ago (remembering they essentially have zero inflation), accelerating from a +4.6% rise in the prior month and exceeding market estimates of +4.9%. It was the largest increase in the pace of trade since May. Electricity production (http://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202310/t20231018_1943653.html) rose +7.7% from a year ago, suggesting the headline growth may in fact have some substance behind it. It is the first time in quite some time Chinese growth data has been led by electricity production.
If NZD is proxy for Chinese growth, has this been priced in?
beacon
19-10-2023, 09:42 AM
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What about this? Has the Baltic Dry Index reversion to mean been priced in? I don't think so... but the market is always right, isn't it? :)
beacon
19-10-2023, 11:39 AM
Excerpt From Taking Stock 19 October 2023:
In the US, the annual deficit this year is forecast at $1.5 trillion.
Paying interest to the bondholders, many of whom are offshore, will eat around 14% of the US total tax take.
The NZ interest expense will be nearer 7%.
It is not only governments that will be fretting over the high cost of debt.
At least US $425 billion of low-grade corporate debt (referred to as “junk” debt, sometimes) must be refinanced in the next 24 months.
The current cost of that debt is around 9.25%, nearly 4% more than has been the case in most of the last seven years...
Globally, higher interest rates are an unaffordable proposition for governments because they have already grossly over-borrowed, just as our government has done. So have many property syndicators...
Powell must choose his words well tonight and in the next few weeks, lest they prove to be the proverbial "last straw"...
winner69
19-10-2023, 12:42 PM
Our trade balance is horrendous ......miles away from historical levels
That must be a drag on nzd?
Daytr
19-10-2023, 01:39 PM
Orr a wimp (and has a political bias) …should have raised rates last month but didn’t …needs to raise rates next month but won’t ……so Feb 2024 will be a big shock when forced to raise.
Even RBA talking raising rates in a few weeks time.
Inflation is here to stay for longer than we want.
Why should he have raised rates?
The banks did that independently by increasing their margins.
Many home owners will be on the brink with the new rates & 40% of the market is yet to roll onto the new rates so the full impact of the current rates hasn't been felt yet.
Inflation is slowly coming down.
If they had increased rates twice like you suggested it would have hurt exporters and home owners & the economy would be in a downward spiral.
When you are at the margins of pain like we are now with interest rates, every little move from there can have a much more significant impact.
If NZ hadn't imported 100,000 people the economy would be in a lot worse shape as well.
Daytr
19-10-2023, 01:56 PM
No, National victory has not been priced in at all - in fact, yesterday's market action could even be construed as market disliking/ disapproving of National win. :p
None of all the other good news that's been happening, has been price in either IMO. What you see is momentum from yield increase in long-dated US securities...
Some pretty big moves in benchmark bond rates globally, courtesy of "higher for longer" sinking in...
5-year Treasury moved as high as 4.937%, its top level since 2007.
10-year Treasury yield breaks above 4.9% for the first time since 2007 https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/18/us-treasury-yields-investors-weigh-economic-data.html
30-year fixed mortgage rate just hit 8% for the first time since 2000 https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/18/30-year-fixed-mortgage-rate-just-hit-8percent-for-the-first-time-since-2000.html
At least I try. God loves a trier. Have patience... all good things come to those who wait :)
Wow that is a big call to say the election result is not already priced in.
That's not to say the NZD can't go higher, but it's just broken below support so it needs to bounce back smartly otherwise it will be targeting 55c - 56c area.
I think many local punters look far too much at the local drivers when it's the USD that drives most of the action in all currencies, let alone a tiny currency that for most traders doesn't even appear on their radar, other than being the first currency to open each day.
You are also up against a flight to safety. Gold has bounced strongly even with a higher USD.
In saying all that we are certainly nearer the bottom than we are the top.
beacon
19-10-2023, 06:48 PM
Our trade balance is horrendous ......miles away from historical levels
That must be a drag on nzd?
Yes Winner. That is a worry, hence my earlier comment about what we in NZ (including Government, Corporate, Citizen) should be doing (including spending/buying/importing responsibly commensurate with our earning/exports etc.), but there are good things about it too. According to Trading Economics, New Zealand’s trade deficit shrank to $2.291 billion in August 2023 from $2.634 billion in the same month of the prior year.
According to ANZ Research, New Zealand’s trade balance is currently only -3.5% of GDP (Negative Trade Balance means we are importing more than we are exporting). https://www.anz.co.nz/content/dam/anzconz/documents/economics-and-market-research/2023/ANZ-Insight-NZ-Trade-Balance-20231019.pdf
That's not too far from US's trade balance as a percentage of GDP (it was -3.7% in 2021, I suspect it has increased since then).
beacon
19-10-2023, 06:54 PM
That's not too far from US's trade balance as a percentage of GDP (it was -3.7% in 2021, I suspect it has increased since then).
14800
Here is a visual representation from the World Bank, showing NZ and US similarity. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS?locations=US&view=map
winner69
19-10-2023, 07:00 PM
Yes Winner. That is a worry, hence my earlier comment about what we in NZ (including Government, Corporate, Citizen) should be doing (including spending/buying/importing responsibly commensurate with our earning/exports etc.), but there are good things about it too. According to Trading Economics, New Zealand’s trade deficit shrank to $2.291 billion in August 2023 from $2.634 billion in the same month of the prior year.
According to ANZ Research, New Zealand’s trade balance is currently only -3.5% of GDP (Negative Trade Balance means we are importing more than we are exporting). https://www.anz.co.nz/content/dam/anzconz/documents/economics-and-market-research/2023/ANZ-Insight-NZ-Trade-Balance-20231019.pdf
That's not too far from US's trade balance as a percentage of GDP (it was -3.7% in 2021, I suspect it has increased since then).
That 3.5% is pretty shocking …..long way to go to get back to somewhere near ‘normal’. Cool chart eh
You as good as Robertson …comparing bad NZ stuff to other countries lol
beacon
19-10-2023, 07:02 PM
I'll second all that Daytr. We know the markets are neither perfect, nor always rational. If they always were, no one could make money.
The further NZd falls though, the faster it'll rebound - as there is no rational economic reason for it to be making a new 5 year low IMO.
I know what I'll be doing, the lower it goes. :)
beacon
19-10-2023, 07:09 PM
That 3.5% is pretty shocking …..long way to go to get back to somewhere near ‘normal’. Cool chart eh
Yea, the chart shows we need some work to get there, lol. But trade deficit as a percentage to GDP helps me compare better.
…comparing bad NZ stuff to other countries lol
Why not? NZD gets its value only when compared with other currencies, which have equally bad (or worse) stuff.
beacon
19-10-2023, 07:16 PM
Are you guys trading this pair or thinking longer-term / hedging?
At these price points, it's great value to either.
A little humility may be in order?
Lest not forget...
"Markets" are NOT Rational; and often don't behave rationally; from our subjective perspective.
"Markets" are primarily driven by emotion. The participants' emotive responses to perceived reality - NOT necessarily actuality.
This goes for ALL Market "Participants", whether it be retail investors, insto's, Govt authorities and yes, also Algo's!
"Markets" do NOT care about election outcomes and even when they do appear to take notice, it will only be for fleeting periods.
"Markets" do NOT care if you, me, or the next person, is right or wrong.
You can do all the economic, geopolitical etc analysis that you want, but just remember markets still do NOT care for your opinion; even if your fundamental hypothesis is "bang on".
"The Market" has exclusive rights to determining what price will be printed on the Ticker.
LISTEN to the Market, do NOT argue or fight against the market. If, on the other hand, you continue to think & insist that you are right, the more likely that you will fall into the "dark hole of pain"!
beacon
20-10-2023, 06:12 AM
LISTEN to the Market, do NOT argue or fight against the market. If, on the other hand, you continue to think & insist that you are right, the further you will fall into the "dark hole of pain"!
Well reminded FTG, thanks. I'll trim my order sizes down so I can continue to buy NZD as it falls into the "dark hole of pain", and sell other stuff I hold, so I can increase my firepower and strengthen my balance sheet.
I have no fight with the market. It is a place where I will prosper eventually, if I have the reserve and can hold my positions. Disclosure: I bought more NZD last night.
NZD may or may not go lower to 55/56c. If market reaches down to flirt with it briefly, no permanent damage is caused. If it stays down there or drops further, just pause and contemplate what damage and "pain" it causes to NZ (a net importer!), and what it will do to NZ property owners with mortgages (our biggest industry now - by contribution to GDP, and for most Kiwis their primary investment).
So, I agree. Let's be humble. Let's be careful what we wish for...
beacon
20-10-2023, 08:42 AM
Powell must choose his words well tonight and in the next few weeks, lest they prove to be the proverbial "last straw"...
Forecasters generally expect gross domestic product to come in very strong for the third quarter before cooling off in the fourth quarter and next year...
Given the uncertainties and risks, and how far we have come, the Committee is proceeding carefully. We will make decisions about the extent of additional policy firming and how long policy will remain restrictive based on the totality of the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks (which are many, as he acknowledged in his speech today).
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20231019a.htm
After some knee-jerk reactions either way, calm returning to FX markets. USD Index down, G10 FX up - with AUD, NZD lagging others - but up from their last night lows nevertheless. Rationality and calm should prevail when what he said (and didn't say) gets digested. He can't crack the economy to get Inflation under (an arbitrary red line) 2%
beacon
20-10-2023, 08:54 AM
NZ Herald EDITORIAL today
The post-pandemic imbalances in the New Zealand economy are starting to work themselves out - finally...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/editorial-signs-of-economic-recovery-offer-fair-winds-for-new-government/MPGDQ7UK35H7HA7ZIE3NHDUWCA/
beacon
20-10-2023, 08:59 AM
NZ economy ‘on track’ for a soft landing, says Infometrics economist Gareth Kiernan
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nz-economy-on-track-for-a-soft-landing-infometrics-economist/7PH3VLSGGZCERH3EMFTK2KWIDM/
“Soft landing” is when a cyclical slowdown in economic growth avoids recession, usually by controlling inflation - without causing a severe downturn in the economy...
It is the goal of a central bank when it seeks to raise interest rates just enough to stop an economy from overheating and experiencing high inflation, without causing a severe downturn (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/softlanding.asp)
winner69
20-10-2023, 09:08 AM
Job ads declining
https://www.seek.co.nz/about/news/employment-report-september-nz
beacon
20-10-2023, 01:49 PM
Wealth falls, inflation drops - thanks mainly to higher interest rates.
Households poorer by $255 billion over the past six quarters, with net worth down over 10%. That's a quarter Trillion dollars NZ no longer has.
Down $33 billion in the June quarter itself, with more than half down to declining property, Stats NZ data show. Debt up. Lower OCR still a way off.
About 54% of existing mortgages by value are fixed and due to reprice onto a new generally higher mortgage rate over the next 12 months.
https://tmmonline.nz/article/976522385/wealth-falls-inflation-drops-but-lower-ocr-still-a-way-off?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Inflation+drops%2C+wealth+falls+but+l ower+OCR+still+a+way+off
beacon
20-10-2023, 02:14 PM
Households poorer by $255 billion over the past six quarters, with net worth down over 10%. That's a quarter Trillion dollars NZ no longer has.
1 USD was .682893 on 30 Dec 2021 - 6 quarters ago from Stats NZ data for June quarter 2023, when it closed at .606576 = another 11%+ fall.
1 USD was .674594 on 20 April 2022 - 6 quarters ago from today, when USD:NZD is at .583 = 13%+ fall, so worse off since the June quarter.
So, in USD terms (purchasing power parity globally) because of the falling NZD, we've lost almost a quarter of our Household wealth in the last 18 months. That almost 25% loss IS SHOCKING!
Hope those who desire a lower NZD - realize what they're asking for. Loss of wealth is just the beginning, as it leads to lower GDP, lower earnings, lower tax revenues and therefore lower social spending, expense and lifestyle choices cuts etc.
beacon
21-10-2023, 11:16 AM
I'm buying (NZD, selling USD). I'd rather be holding NZD at these prices, than the "safe haven" freely-printed US paper :)
America's federal budget deficit (difference between government spending and tax revenue) has roughly doubled over the year to $2 trillion, according to latest White House estimates, despite Biden's student loan plan (which would have increased deficits) being struck down.
US Government spent about $711 billion last year just to pay interest on the national debt (nearly $200 billion more than previous year). US Interest costs alone were expected to total over $10.5 trillion over the next decade in Budget Office projections, last May when "higher for longer rhetoric" was just being broached (so costs up further since May).
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/20/business/federal-budget-deficit-trillion.html
beacon
23-10-2023, 10:11 AM
In fact, if NZ gets its act together on India partnership and FTAs, we should be well above the long-term mean, and back in the .70s again
India-NZ trade: All systems go with fresh government attention on both sides, says business council
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/india-nz-trade-all-systems-go-with-fresh-government-attention-on-both-sides-says-business-council/6KHPNWPP35AFDNG3OVPRW4FVPU/
beacon
23-10-2023, 08:35 PM
As NZ stimulates growth via tax cuts, US has committed itself to increasing spending to fund/ aid Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan.
14803
While our Budget deficits are estimated to decrease therefore, US budget deficits are bound to increase.
So NZD weakness seems irrational. Interestingly, weak currencies are inflationary. So, the more NZD falls, the more RBNZ must raise OCR to compensate.
Thoughts any one?
beacon
26-10-2023, 12:01 PM
Despite in its quarterly Small Business Index (https://www.xero.com/nz/resources/small-business-insights/), Xero saying ..."It’s clear we’re sitting in the middle of the pack ...,"
Sales
Australia, +5.5% y/y growth in September 2023
United Kingdom, +1.1% y/y growth
NZ, -1.5% (y/y) in September 2023
Canada -5.6% drop in June 2023
US -7.7% drop in June 2023
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/124903/xero-says-small-business-sales-are-inconsistent-across-new-zealand-some-regions
beacon
27-10-2023, 01:05 PM
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey shows optimism about the economy rising...
Expectations for the housing market were the strongest in almost two years...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/consumer-confidence-creeping-back-to-life-anz/4A2OSEOHERGPJIOKWZUK5WI56E/
beacon
28-10-2023, 07:52 AM
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has a dual mandate:
- to support employment at its maximum sustainable level and
- maintain price stability.
It has lifted interest rates from 0.25% in August 2021 to the current 5.5% = a MAMMOTH 22x increase already.
On the price stability side of the equation, annual inflation eased to 5.6% in the September quarter 2023 = About to fall below OCR rate.
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/economy/jobs-data-could-rule-out-a-february-rate-hike?utm_source=nzh&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=nzh-home
winner69
28-10-2023, 08:16 AM
Gold hits 2,000
beacon
28-10-2023, 08:17 AM
US Wage Inflation tempering despite continuing job growth
US CPI down to 2.31% (truflation as of 27/10/23) versus Government reported 3.7%
winner69
28-10-2023, 08:56 AM
Nzdusd down but hanging in over 58
beacon
28-10-2023, 10:11 AM
US Fed Nov hike looks unlikely
From https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/27/federal-reserve-may-not-hike-interest-rates-what-that-means-for-you.html
US Fed has already raised interest rates 11 times since last year — the fastest pace of tightening since the early 1980s
US average credit card rate is now 20%+ — an all-time high (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/27/this-is-how-inflation-interest-rates-can-impact-your-credit-card-debt.html). Further, with most people feeling strained by higher prices, balances are higher (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/credit-card-balances-jump-13percent-as-inflation-outpaces-wage-growth.html) and more cardholders are carrying debt from month to month (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/10/americans-lean-heavily-on-credit-cards-amid-inflation.html).
US average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is up to 8%, the highest in 23 years, according to Bankrate. Also, anyone shopping for a new home has lost considerable purchasing power.
US average rate on a 5-year new car loan is now 7.62%, the highest in 16 years, according to Bankrate.
winner69
30-10-2023, 08:56 AM
Nzdusd starts week at .5813
Where it will end week ……..maybe .5725 if no clear indication of make up of new people government
From https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/27/federal-reserve-may-not-hike-interest-rates-what-that-means-for-you.html
US Fed has already raised interest rates 11 times since last year — the fastest pace of tightening since the early 1980s
US average credit card rate is now 20%+ — an all-time high (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/27/this-is-how-inflation-interest-rates-can-impact-your-credit-card-debt.html). Further, with most people feeling strained by higher prices, balances are higher (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/credit-card-balances-jump-13percent-as-inflation-outpaces-wage-growth.html) and more cardholders are carrying debt from month to month (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/10/americans-lean-heavily-on-credit-cards-amid-inflation.html).
US average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is up to 8%, the highest in 23 years, according to Bankrate. Also, anyone shopping for a new home has lost considerable purchasing power.
US average rate on a 5-year new car loan is now 7.62%, the highest in 16 years, according to Bankrate.
There must be some pain in the US with these interest rates. They traditionally love spending beyond their means.
beacon
30-10-2023, 10:15 AM
There must be some pain in the US with these interest rates. They traditionally love spending beyond their means.
They do indeed, and it was this consumption that manifested as growth in US Q3 data. https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/disposable-personal-income
But they'll eat into their savings now, if they keep consuming at Q3 rates - as Covid savings are depleting fast now, and real disposable income has been falling every month for the last three months.
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beacon
30-10-2023, 10:18 AM
Nzdusd starts week at .5813. Where it will end week ……..maybe .5725 if no clear indication of make up of new people government
And if there is, which has a higher probability anyway - given the strong National/ ACT showing on election day - maybe it will be set to cross .6 next week?
beacon
30-10-2023, 10:45 AM
NZD breached $0.58 USD in October 2023, which is its lowest level in almost a year. Things must get a lot worse for NZ, for NZD to stay under .6 with any longevity (which I don't see happening in the near term).
Measured against RBNZ’s trade-weighted index (TWI), which measures the New Zealand dollar against a basket of 17 currencies now, the fall was a lot less dramatic.
In fact, while we have been overly focussed on the recent NZD fall against USD (not surprising, given all major world currencies fell vs USD, post Israel-Palestine escalation), the TWI reveals NZD has already begun its rebound against others. See chart...
14815
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/series/exchange-and-interest-rates/exchange-rates-and-the-trade-weighted-index
beacon
30-10-2023, 11:36 AM
RBNZ winning with its pause
ASB’s Smith says the bank expects the unemployment rate to move below its maximum sustainable level by the end of next year. This should temper wage increases and significantly dampen pressures on core inflation.
Westpac senior economist Darren Gibbs says indicators suggest that employment growth has begun to slow in recent months... domestic inflation will moderate by enough to allow overall CPI inflation to move back into the target range over the coming year or so.
Jarrod Kerr, Kiwibank chief economist, says there are clear signs the tight financial conditions are already restraining demand.
https://tmmonline.nz/article/976522412/no-loosening-of-high-ocr-settings?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=No+loosening+of+OCR+settings+any+time +soon
beacon
01-11-2023, 07:21 AM
New Zealand and Auckland house prices: Analyst CoreLogic says downturn is officially over
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/new-zealand-and-auckland-house-prices-analyst-corelogic-says-downturn-is-officially-over/HDDXRPITOFC4XGDFDG627DMMZM/
Daytr
01-11-2023, 10:25 AM
Bankruptcies up 40% yoy.
Some Dairy farmers will report a loss this year according to the RBNZ.
Power bill late payments rise.
More pain to come I think as more borrowers move onto the new interest rates.
Equities typically trade the future I.e what's the outlook over the next 12 months. Currencies tend to be more in the now imo.
winner69
01-11-2023, 10:53 AM
Unemployment print 3.9%
Should help NZD
Daytr
02-11-2023, 11:41 AM
Unemployment print 3.9%
Should help NZD
Sorry why should this support the NZD?
beacon
03-11-2023, 03:52 PM
Where it will end week ……..maybe .5725 if no clear indication of make up of new people government
National’s Christopher Luxon to negotiate with Act and Winston Peters
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nz-election-final-result-live-updates-special-votes-counted-nationals-christopher-luxon-to-negotiate-with-act-and-winston-peters/S56WOQ3QUJE57IZAKJTFUDFZUE/
“Now we can get cracking,” Luxon told reporters... “We are working constructively with both parties. We are going to come together and form a strong stable government,” Luxon said.
Peters said NZ First wanted negotiations to be conducted with urgency. “What can we agree on ... we can’t all get what we want, we have to get a sound much much better government underway,” Peters told the Platform.
They'll keep each other in check, but not a bad result overall. Just a delay of another week or two... Seems like the markets expected that...
Daytr
04-11-2023, 07:49 AM
Nothing to with NZ.
NZD ripped higher on softer employment data out of the US seing bond yields slide.
winner69
04-11-2023, 07:57 AM
Nothing to with NZ.
NZD ripped higher on softer employment data out of the US seing bond yields slide.
Jeez, 60 cents
Since NZ employment data and now US data nzd up 2 cents …..suppose that’s good
beacon
04-11-2023, 08:54 AM
NZD breached $0.58 USD in October 2023, which is its lowest level in almost a year. Things must get a lot worse for NZ, for NZD to stay under .6 with any longevity (which I don't see happening in the near term).
Finally, some rationality returning to market
beacon
05-11-2023, 09:14 PM
Despite the current jawboning, Reserve Banks around the world are looking for an excuse to cut. A strong USD is hurting everyone, including I suspect the US, and refinancing interest rates are beginning to bite global borrowers harder - including in US.
Bill Gross sees lower interest rates ... offering a tailwind to stocks
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/02/bill-gross-sees-lower-interest-rates-offering-a-tailwind-to-regional-bank-stocks.html
beacon
05-11-2023, 09:21 PM
Slow, controlled growth is something the markets and the Fed are seeking in the current climate, negative growth is not
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/03/bad-news-for-the-economy-is-good-news-for-the-stock-market-as-long-as-it-doesnt-get-too-bad.html
Traders in fed funds futures reduced the probability for a December rate hike to less than 10% and now see the first cut coming as soon as May, according to CME Group tracking
NZD above 62c this month looking more and more likely...
winner69
08-11-2023, 07:50 AM
Aussie raises rates and nzdusd collapses ….now .5920
That 62 even further away beacon
kiora
08-11-2023, 11:02 AM
With more to go?
Otherwise exporters are done & dusted ?
beacon
09-11-2023, 07:52 AM
Aussie raises rates and nzdusd collapses ….now .5920
A 1-2% move down is hardly a collapse. Interestingly, Aussie fell more (after raising rates) than NZD (which is in a pause, and winning with a pause).
It would have been more accurate, had you said, Aussie raises rates and audusd collapses. Raising rates didn't help the AUD. Lol
beacon
09-11-2023, 07:56 AM
That 62 even further away beacon
That 62c would be where a lot of sleepy punters will wake up, and start buying. Human psychology is hilarious ...
beacon
09-11-2023, 08:01 AM
Otherwise exporters are done & dusted ?
An exporter whose USP, competitive advantage or survival rests solely on a depreciating currency is heading towards being done and dusted anyway.
Daytr
09-11-2023, 08:05 AM
My take on the NZD is based on which Central Bank looks to lower rates first.
Tbh, I don't have a strong view either way on that.
beacon
09-11-2023, 08:26 AM
Inflation is no longer the only game in Town.
The variance suggests business leaders and forecasters believe the RBNZ will let inflation run hotter than what it’s signalling to deliver a “soft landing”.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/reserve-banks-survey-of-inflation-expectations-heads-in-the-right-direction/DBWTNVVHMZDMTC6TNRGJHJ62IY/
winner69
09-11-2023, 08:45 AM
An exporter whose USP, competitive advantage or survival rests solely on a depreciating currency is heading towards being done and dusted anyway.
Agree …as a nation we should be proud if we have a strong currency
To be proud it’s needs to be about 75/80 or higher
beacon
09-11-2023, 08:52 AM
It was this consumption that manifested as growth in US Q3 data. But they'll eat into their savings now, if they keep consuming at Q3 rates - as Covid savings are depleting fast now, and real disposable income has been falling every month for the last three months.
14825
US - a sand castle?
beacon
09-11-2023, 08:55 AM
Agree …as a nation we should be proud if we have a strong currency
To be proud it’s needs to be about 75/80 or higher
Bull's eye Winner69. You nailed it finally, even if it was in sarcasm... Watch it get there if we can get our relationship with India going...
BTW kiora, India should also be good for many of our our exporters...
beacon
09-11-2023, 08:58 AM
US Wage Inflation tempering despite continuing job growth
Data released recently has given further credence to the narrative that inflation is easing and the labour market is slowing (the cost of labour declined in the third quarter and October job additions have come in below expectations), boosting the scenario that the Fed is done with rate hikes.
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976522447/are-equity-markets-due-for-a-strong-finish-this-year.html
beacon
09-11-2023, 09:11 AM
ANZ Business Outlook showing that business confidence jumped 21 points to +23 in October. The reading is the highest level since mid-2017, when National was the government.
14827
While inflation expectations didn’t fall, reported wage increases versus a year earlier dropped to 4.9% - that’s the lowest read since March 2022.
winner69
09-11-2023, 09:24 AM
Optimism always high when Nats rule the roost
beacon
09-11-2023, 10:09 AM
Don’t forget about El Niño ….last real powerful El Niño was 1997/98 …the 2015/16 was a relatively mild event
NZD went below USD40 cents following that 97/98 El Niño
Scientists say climate change is driving heatwaves across the planet, toppling previous records with alarming frequency.
This year, factors driven by climate change have combined with those produced by the El Nino climate pattern, during which warmer surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean drive extreme weather around the world. The current hottest year on record is 2016 – another El Nino year.
The ongoing El Nino weather pattern is set to last until at least April, the World Meteorological Organization said on Wednesday.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/8/scorching-october-puts-2023-on-track-to-be-hottest-year-in-125000-years
Thanks for this early warning, Winner69. This is a true short-term risk for NZD as well as many other global currencies, as no one will be spared. Expecting volatility ...
kiora
09-11-2023, 11:52 AM
But good for bees & high UMF honey ?
beacon
09-11-2023, 03:10 PM
But good for bees & high UMF honey ?
You mean, India or el Nino?
India - Yes, India will be great for Comvita, if they can get a leaf out of our Kiwifruit marketing in India. You ain't seen nothin' yet.
el Nino - I suspect not, but I'm no bee or honey or UMF expert
beacon
10-11-2023, 07:47 AM
An El Niño climate pattern expected to spell a hot, dry summer for New Zealand’s north-east is looking to peak unusually late – meaning its mix of influences could linger on through next autumn.
Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll says the big climate driver (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/its-looking-bad-the-four-big-trends-to-watch-this-el-nino-summer/3BPUTIT5LVF3JLPH2QHI4H32GM/)might not reach its full strength until late January, in the thick of summer - while a “weather wildcard” could still leave the door partially open to tropical rainmakers finding their way down here over the warm season.
In New Zealand, El Niño tended to bring drier conditions in the north and east, wetter ones in the south and west - and westerlies prevailing generally everywhere.
Farmers in particularly exposed regions like Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne have long been preparing for the prospect of parched soils as warm westerlies begin to blow-dry away soil moisture.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/explained-why-this-el-nino-is-behaving-differently-and-what-it-means-for-nz/HG232RA3RNEZJD5QGFFLEHZPJM/
winner69
10-11-2023, 08:05 AM
Deflation in China
beacon
10-11-2023, 08:08 AM
US - a sand castle?
NZ Net debt 20.6% of GDP now, up from 18% in June 2023 quarter. https://www.treasury.govt.nz/system/files/2023-11/fsgnz-3mths-sep23.pdf
US Govt. debt 121.6% of Nominal GDP in Jun 2023 quarter. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/government-debt--of-nominal-gdp#:~:text=United%20States%20Government%20Debt%3A %20%25%20of%20GDP,-1969%20%2D%202023%20%7C%20Quarterly&text=United%20States%20Government%20debt%20account ed,Mar%201969%20to%20Jun%202023.
beacon
10-11-2023, 08:12 AM
The Crown accounts for 3 months to September reveal OBEGAL in deficit by -$2.5 bln which was lower than the -$2.7 bln forecast. Wherefrom that improvement?
- higher taxes on companies.
- higher taxes on individuals
- higher GST y-o-y
beacon
10-11-2023, 08:22 AM
Deflation in China
We ARE... gearing up to deal with our overdependence on China, so our economy, currency and prosperity are not held to ransom by what happens in China, or what China does or does not do.
Politicians from New Zealand's two main parties were either doubling down on promises already released or repeating the bold ones already made at the India Business Summit in Auckland [last week] ...
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/opinion/can-politicians-cash-the-cheques-theyre-writing-on-india?utm_source=nzh&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=nzh-home
...."and in other news, (also from the Crown, Sep 30, accounts) Govt. net debt was a massive $5.6B higher than 'forecasted' just 2 months ago, at the Sept 12 PREFU".
A few more fiscal skeletons to come out of the closet over the next few weeks & months? If so, those who are long on the kiwi should probably be aware, very aware.
beacon
10-11-2023, 09:01 AM
...."and in other news, (also from the Crown, Sep 30, accounts) Govt. net debt was a massive $5.6B higher than 'forecasted' just 2 months ago, at the Sept 12 PREFU".
A few more fiscal skeletons to come out of the closet over the next few weeks & months?If so, those who are long on the kiwi should probably be aware, very aware.
New Zealand’s fiscal position has been recognised by global credit rating agencies. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings both reaffirmed New Zealand’s domestic currency ratings, at AAA and AA+ respectively, in September 2022, while Moody's Investors Service sovereign credit rating for New Zealand has been maintained at Aaa since 2002.
14833
I am aware that the long-term projections of net debt (both the new and the old net debt measures) in the Budget Update show a DECLINING trajectory https://budget.govt.nz/budget/2023/wellbeing/fiscal-strategy/debt-measure.htm
beacon
10-11-2023, 09:06 AM
Let us also not forget that Currencies derive their value by comparison.
… and New Zealand continues to have some of the lowest public debt in the world
14834
Even at its peak, New Zealand's net debt as a share of GDP remains low compared to many of our international peers.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) publishes a general government net debt indicator which is an internationally comparable measure of net debt. This indicator shows New Zealand's net debt at 24.1 percent of GDP in 2024, compared to 13.9 percent in Canada, 38.2 percent in Australia, 98.2 percent in the UK and 99.8 percent in the US (Figure 10).
https://budget.govt.nz/budget/2023/wellbeing/fiscal-strategy/debt-measure.htm
beacon
10-11-2023, 09:19 AM
A few more fiscal skeletons to come out of the closet over the next few weeks & months? If so, those who are long on the kiwi should probably be aware, very aware.
BOND TENDER AWASH IN OFFERS
131 bids worth $2.0 blm were staked for the $500 mln NZGBs on tender today (https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/125157/nz-govt-bond-tender-883-tender-date-3-nov-2023). Ten bids won the May 2030 $175 mln at 4.92%, down a sharpish -27 bps from one week ago. 17 bids won the May 2032 $225 mln at 4.98%, down -36 bps from 4 weeks ago. And just seven bids won the April 2037 $100 mln at 5.14%, up +1 bps from eight weeks ago. That leaves $1.5 bln in cash on the table unsatisfied and looking for a home.
Kiwi bears should be aware, very aware - that the winds are changing. And the market knows, as you can see from the latest results above...
beacon
10-11-2023, 01:29 PM
Powell says:
- Fed is ‘not confident’ it has done enough to bring inflation down to its desired 2%, BUT Risks between doing too much and too little have come into closer balance.
- Fed remains steadfast in getting Inflation to 2%, expects getting it sustainably down to 2% has a long way to go, BUT is gratified by [inflation falling] progress
- Inflation is “well above” where the Fed would like to see it (2%), BUT Fed is attuned to the rise in Treasury yields, and policy is “significantly restrictive.”
- Fed is “attentive” that stronger-than-expected growth could undermine the fight against inflation and “warrant a response from monetary policy", BUT Expectation is for growth to “moderate in coming quarters”
Yet, the media picked up only on the 'not confident' and USD rose against all major currencies. It rose higher against most major EM currencies. NZD fell too, but less than most G10.
Interestingly, Treasury yields also rose after having fallen for over two weeks: 2yr +10bps to 5.032%, 10yr +11bps to 4.637% and 30 yr +12bps tp 4.772%.
No one picked up on what he said about the challenge posed by keeping rates anchored near zero, where they were before the inflation surge.
Powell said it is “too soon” to say whether zero-rate challenges are “a thing of the past.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/09/powell-says-fed-is-not-confident-it-has-done-enough-to-bring-inflation-down.html
Entrep
10-11-2023, 04:28 PM
Are you in a massive NZD long position beacon?
beacon
11-11-2023, 10:48 AM
Are you in a massive NZD long position beacon?
I am long NZD, yes - with reason/ reasonable justification to be so, IMO.
Massive is a relative term. But if you are asking if I have so much, it is making me desperate, then No.
I write, because I am amazed at the sole focus markets the world over have on central bank actions at the moment, at the expense of everything else - including fundamentals (especially for NZD).
Will I be desperate if there is a black swan - which makes NZD USD fall down to 55/56c and I keep buying? No, but it may be embarrassing to have been so wrong in public. I may stop posting more here.
beacon
11-11-2023, 04:01 PM
Moody’s cuts U.S. outlook to negative, citing deficits and political polarization
“In the context of higher interest rates, without effective fiscal policy measures to reduce government spending or increase revenues,” the agency said. “Moody’s expects that the US’ fiscal deficits will remain very large, significantly weakening debt affordability.” https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/moodys-cuts-usa-outlook-to-negative-citing-higher-interest-rates-and-deficits.html
Back in August, (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/01/fitch-downgrades-us-long-term-ratings-to-aa-from-aaa.html) Fitch cut the U.S. long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to AA+ from AAA, citing “expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years,” as well as an erosion of governance and a growing debt burden.
Daytr
11-11-2023, 11:31 PM
I am long NZD, yes - with reason/ reasonable justification to be so, IMO.
Massive is a relative term. But if you are asking if I have so much, it is making me desperate, then No.
I write, because I am amazed at the sole focus markets the world over have on central bank actions at the moment, at the expense of everything else - including fundamentals (especially for NZD).
Will I be desperate if there is a black swan - which makes NZD USD fall down to 55/56c and I keep buying? No, but it may be embarrassing to have been so wrong in public. I may stop posting more here.
NZD or the NZ market doesn't even cross most international investors / traders radar & there isn't enough liquidity for many to even be included in their investment policy as one of the key factors is, if you want to get out in a hurry
A) can you do so &
B) can you do it without moving the market significantly or detrimentally.
As I have said before the key driver in the NZD/USD is obviously the USD. It's pretty rare for the NZD to stand out against other currencies against the USD.
Against the Aussie cross the NZD has been relatively strong in recent years, so the Kiwi is already at an elevated level from what it would perhaps normally be.
Overall I would think it's near the lows, well when it was 58cish etc. But that in my view wouldn't rule out a revisit to 56c etc & I don't think that would necessarily require a black swan event, it could be just be the FED becoming more hawkish for example.
On the other hand if the FED started to look at easing before the RBNZ then we would likely see all currencies rally against the Dollar.
winner69
12-11-2023, 08:20 AM
Daytr …..Nzd one of most traded currencies in forex market …not long ago was in top ten
beacon
12-11-2023, 09:22 AM
NZD or the NZ market doesn't even cross most international investors / traders radar & there isn't enough liquidity ...
1. The NZD/USD cross has above-average market liquidity, and it generally enjoys a steady and consistent volume of trading.
https://www.fortrade.com/products/nzdusd/
2. RBNZ Foreign exchange turnover (B4) data provides information about the average daily foreign exchange transactions. This can be used as a measure of market activity and also provide a rough proxy for market liquidity. You can see we are fairly liquid. See https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/series/exchange-and-interest-rates/foreign-exchange-turnover
2. USDNZD AMIVEST was 6.354, pretty high when you consider that in 2022 NZ GDP was less than 1% of the US GDP. AMIVEST stands for inverse (realized) Amihud, indicating how many billions of USD are necessary on average to move the FX rate by one standard deviation.
See Table 1. Descriptive statistics (https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/descriptive-statistics) of realized Amihud for major FX pairs. Data are based on 2479 daily observations for each currency pair and the sample period spans from November 2011 to September 2021.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X22001891
3. Both S&P and Moody's give NZ the same sovereign rating as the USA. So, NZ and NZD have more meat packed in them, than meets the casual eye. See more comparisons here before you write off NZD's inherent (fundamental) strength: https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/new-zealand/usa
I do agree however, that in times of strife USD sparkles (as it is doing now), and that Fed is, and for the foreseeable future, will remain the primary influencer of USD moves and value (and therefore other global currencies).
BUT USD strength is weakening US as well as its allies, so much so that a multipolar world is spawning with the greatest speed it has had in the last 5 decades. Also, more and more (longer-fixed) US borrowers are having to refinance at higher rates. So, Time will tell whether we get to 55c or 65c first.
I don't know about you, but I'm backing my thinking with my money.
Entrep
12-11-2023, 10:45 AM
I am long NZD, yes - with reason/ reasonable justification to be so, IMO.
Massive is a relative term. But if you are asking if I have so much, it is making me desperate, then No.
I write, because I am amazed at the sole focus markets the world over have on central bank actions at the moment, at the expense of everything else - including fundamentals (especially for NZD).
Will I be desperate if there is a black swan - which makes NZD USD fall down to 55/56c and I keep buying? No, but it may be embarrassing to have been so wrong in public. I may stop posting more here.
Cool, I'm just curious. I am been taking out long-term USD forward contracts under 60c. Anything under 60c is great value IMO.
Daytr
12-11-2023, 01:18 PM
Daytr …..Nzd one of most traded currencies in forex market …not long ago was in top ten
Sure, NZ for its size is a large export economy producing about 5 x the food we consume & we also import most manufactured goods. Also being the first currency to open each day gives it a bit more volume than it would otherwise would, although the first two hours of trading are very thin & spreads about 4 - 5 times as wide as it is when Asia or Europe opens.
When I used to trade the NZD on a wholesale basis at times, mostly to hedge commodity transactions currency risk.
Trying to get away volume was typically tricky. Spreads would widen and $50 - $100M could move the market substantially depending on the day.
For a lot of hedge funds to take a position I.e to invest & hold the Kiwi wouldn't qualify due to the limited size of the market.
The ones that do trade / invest in Kiwi would probably be taking relatively small positions so they know if they need to they can get out quickly.
stoploss
12-11-2023, 06:01 PM
Sure, NZ for its size is a large export economy producing about 5 x the food we consume & we also import most manufactured goods. Also being the first currency to open each day gives it a bit more volume than it would otherwise would, although the first two hours of trading are very thin & spreads about 4 - 5 times as wide as it is when Asia or Europe opens.
When I used to trade the NZD on a wholesale basis at times, mostly to hedge commodity transactions currency risk.
Trying to get away volume was typically tricky. Spreads would widen and $50 - $100M could move the market substantially depending on the day.
For a lot of hedge funds to take a position I.e to invest & hold the Kiwi wouldn't qualify due to the limited size of the market.
The ones that do trade / invest in Kiwi would probably be taking relatively small positions so they know if they need to they can get out quickly.
Daytr , this is not correct some of the biggest hedge funds have been involved in the NZ FX Market . As an example Tiger fund the late Julian Robertson in a large way …. In some cases it could be argued that the lack of liquidity works in their favour ( more volatility ) and if they have an options strategy in play the increased volatility there is going to make them more money .
I could go on and mention BT late 80’s Andy Kriger ( s/p) but I’ll leave it there .
Daytr
12-11-2023, 06:25 PM
Daytr , this is not correct some of the biggest hedge funds have been involved in the NZ FX Market . As an example Tiger fund the late Julian Robertson in a large way …. In some cases it could be argued that the lack of liquidity works in their favour ( more volatility ) and if they have an options strategy in play the increased volatility there is going to make them more money .
I could go on and mention BT late 80’s Andy Kriger ( s/p) but I’ll leave it there .
Thanks that's interesting & happy to stand corrected. Just not my experience when dealing with hedge funds, admittedly its a big wide world out there and we only covered a fraction of it.
beacon
14-11-2023, 10:44 AM
Cool, I'm just curious. I am been taking out long-term USD forward contracts under 60c. Anything under 60c is great value IMO.
Jarden’s view is any further increase in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) seems unlikely if economic data continues this path, NZ’s short-term interest rates to fall towards the end of 2024.
BNZ has gone one step further and revised its forecast for an OCR cut by May next year.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/jarden-wealth-weekly-will-putting-the-skids-on-interest-rates-give-a-strong-boost-to-stock-markets/SQIQ5KSAS5H6NDGJAAAD5ICFVI/
winner69
15-11-2023, 09:06 AM
Nzdusd back over .60 after overnight action
beacon
15-11-2023, 11:13 AM
Nzdusd back over .60 after overnight action
Yep, Big Day for NZD, on good volume - recent news confirms signals that stuff is getting better:
In US:
- US T10y below 4.5% recent lows, US T2y 4.83% - on Lower than expected US CPI https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/14/cpi-inflation-report-october-2023.html
- Russel 2000 UP 5%, NDX UP 2.5%, SPX 500 UP 2%, https://www.google.com/search?q=russell+2000&rlz=1C1AWFC_enNZ816NZ816&oq=russell+2000&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqBggAEEUYOzIGCAAQRRg70gEINDg1OW owajSoAgCwAgA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
- Should be followed by a relief rally in EM stocks and currencies today
In NZ:
- Food DOWN 3 months in a row https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/food-prices-up-since-last-year-but-down-in-october-2023/
- Property UP 3 months in a row - QV House Price Index (average home up 2% over 3 months at Oct end, Auckland up 2.7%) https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/11/housing-market-showing-increasing-signs-of-life-property-values-lift-third-month-in-a-row-qv-house-price-index.html
- Houses to rise by an average 4.8%, while CPI slows to 3.6% over the next 12 months (so a small but positive 1.2% real growth finally), according to the Reserve Bank's survey of 37 business leaders and professional forecasters. https://www.newsroom.co.nz/sharp-rise-in-house-prices-forecast
beacon
15-11-2023, 12:12 PM
... USD strength is weakening US...
UBS sees a raft of Fed rate cuts next year on the back of a U.S. recession
...increasing weight of higher interest rates. Credit and lending standards appear to be tightening beyond simply repricing. Labor market income keeps being revised lower, on net, over time,” UBS highlighted.
“According to our estimates, spending in the economy looks elevated relative to income, pushed up by fiscal stimulus and maintained at that level by excess savings.”
The bank estimates that the upward pressure on growth from fiscal impetus in 2023 will fade next year, while household savings are “thinning out” and balance sheets look less robust.
...“historically large” amount of credit that is being withdrawn from the U.S. economy.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/14/why-the-us-has-lost-thousands-of-high-skilled-workers-to-canada-.html
beacon
15-11-2023, 12:19 PM
Expecting 62c this months
Chart looks like it just finished forming an inverse head and shoulders (bullish indicator)
Valuegrowth
15-11-2023, 01:12 PM
USD nosedived on Tuesday. I may have a chance to sell my ETF.
beacon
16-11-2023, 11:13 AM
... Should be followed by a relief rally in EM stocks and currencies today
That came to pass. NZD inching up too, as National Government composition inches towards clarity.
Meanwhile in US, Wholesale prices in October posted their biggest decline in 3½ years, providing another indication that the worst of the inflation surge may have passed.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/15/wholesale-prices-fell-0point5percent-in-october-for-biggest-monthly-drop-since-april-2020.html
So, no US hikes = no interest differential tailwinds for USD = NZD should keep inching up towards 62c as National Government formation negotiations enter final stages
beacon
16-11-2023, 12:09 PM
NZD should keep inching up towards 62c as National Government formation negotiations enter final stages
- factory output up 4.6%
- retail sales up 7.6%
despite
- real estate investment down 9.3%, post CCP crackdown on excessive borrowing by developers two years ago and the pandemic.
Impact reflected in Baltic Dry Index reversion to the mean. One more box ticked for NZD
beacon
16-11-2023, 12:32 PM
... stuff is getting better...
NZ's biggest ever migration-driven population gain for any 12 months period
NZ's Biggest source countries for foreign citizens - India, the Philippines, China, Fiji and South Africa. Why? NZ better on many counts...
Immigration fuels the economy. When immigrants enter the labor force, they increase the productive capacity of the economy and raise GDP. Their incomes rise, but so do those of natives. https://www.bushcenter.org/catalyst/north-american-century/benefits-of-immigration-outweigh-costs/#:~:text=Immigration%20fuels%20the%20economy.,so%2 0do%20those%20of%20natives.
Yet, this happened at the same time as we experienced...
NZ's biggest ever net loss of NZ citizens in any 12 month period
A reflection on Labour policies and rule? Kiwis voting with their feet perhaps?
https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/125242/migration-driven-population-growth-has-more-doubled-compared-pre-covid-levels
beacon
16-11-2023, 12:40 PM
As NZ stimulates growth via tax cuts, US has committed itself to increasing spending to fund/ aid Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan. While our Budget deficits are estimated to decrease therefore, US budget deficits are bound to increase. So NZD weakness seems irrational.
NZ Consumer tightening belts too. Stats NZ figures show (https://www.interest.co.nz/business/125227/stats-nz-figures-show-total-card-spending-fell-03-october-while-retail-spending) that total card spending fell by -0.3% in October, while retail spending dropped by -0.7%.
'the softness in spending is notable as it comes as population growth is continuing to surge'
Interestingly, weak currencies are inflationary. So, the more NZD falls, the more RBNZ must raise OCR to compensate. Thoughts any one?
A rising NZD is doing RBNZ's job to contain (imported) inflation.
beacon
16-11-2023, 12:49 PM
Meanwhile, the Game Of Thrones in US Congress continues.
And they've kicked the US shutdown can to early Feb 2024 probably. With shutdown pressures gone, USD loses some shine and Wall Street readies for a stress-free Christmas.
Relief also for EM stocks and non-US currencies. NZD up, TWI up. Go NZD!
winner69
16-11-2023, 06:25 PM
Nzdusd back below .60
Onemootpoint
17-11-2023, 12:34 AM
What if there is no recession…
“But a coming US recession will force the Federal Reserve to slash rates by 150 basis points in 2024's second quarter, the analysts predict, jump starting the "dollar's long goodbye."
Within this trend, undervalued tenders will have the most to gain, such as the Australian dollar and Norwegian kroner. “
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/us-dollar-fx-rally-2024-ing-currency-outlook-interest-cuts-2023-11
beacon
17-11-2023, 07:42 AM
What if there is no recession…
Borrowed from another thread, posted by Winner69 a few days ago.
Jared says on X re USA ….
1. The yield curve inverted 16 months ago.
2. 8/8 times the yield curve inverts, we get a recession.
3. The recession happens when the curve un-inverts.
4. The curve is un-inverting.
5. Payrolls are finally crapping out.
A recession is inevitable.
The only thing I disagree with - is 4. The curve is back to being inverted for the moment. See below:
14845
So, the impending/ expected recesssion is coming, albeit delayed
beacon
17-11-2023, 07:48 AM
Nzdusd back below .60
Nzdusd was back above .60 overnight too. It is consolidating after a big move up.
IMO, If it closes this week and next - above .6, we have .6 as the floor for the next move up to 62c.
beacon
17-11-2023, 09:33 AM
Nzdusd back below .60
.5966 - for the moment
Possibly low sentiment from consecutive sport losses on the international stage after a long dismal Labour governance - reflecting in low self-esteem and lack of confidence in NZ and NZD.
But despite the losses, I'd rather be in company of Mitchell Santners and Kane Williamsons than Simon O’Donnells. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/cricket/india-vs-new-zealand-black-caps-slammed-for-helping-cramping-virat-kohli-during-century/56IJU3VCBJB5ZHJGLASW4NQKYI/
We may have lost to Indian cricket team, but we have won the Indian hearts. Time to build on that, while cherishing, preserving and celebrating our humane(ity)...
beacon
17-11-2023, 09:50 AM
So, the impending/ expected recesssion is coming, albeit delayed
Goldman Sachs thinks that only an unforeseen shock is likely to cause a recession in 2024
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/16/goldman-sachs-thinks-that-only-an-unforeseen-shock-is-likely-to-cause-a-recession-in-2024.html
beacon
17-11-2023, 09:53 AM
[NZ] Sentiment Low after Rugby and Cricket losses?
Also, on the USD side of the equation, more hawkish Fed jawboning helping shackle NZD...
Fed’s Mester wants ‘much more evidence’ that inflation has been defeated
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/16/feds-mester-wants-much-more-evidence-that-inflation-has-been-defeated.html
beacon
17-11-2023, 09:58 AM
But USD pre-eminence under rising threat from China and Chinese vassal states ... as yet another is metamorphosed into Hitler...
Xi says U.S. and China can only be adversaries or partners, with no middle ground
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/16/xi-says-us-and-china-can-only-be-adversaries-or-partners.html
Biden stands by comment that Xi is a ‘dictator’ hours after their first meeting in a year
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/16/us-china-apec-biden-stands-by-comment-that-xi-is-a-dictator.html
beacon
17-11-2023, 04:33 PM
NAB sees NZD at 60c this Christmas, and at 64c mid 2024 now - despite markets pricing in 0 hikes and 0.5% OCR cut in 2024
Daytr
17-11-2023, 10:21 PM
You are replying to your own posts now Beacon?
beacon
18-11-2023, 08:24 AM
You are replying to your own posts now Beacon?
Yeah, more of a chronicle now - since there is not much others have posted.
Maybe not much vested interest in the pair to care, or not enough to say...
... So be it. It is still helpful to me. Writing here clears my thinking. Hope it helps others too..
audiav
18-11-2023, 08:44 AM
I follow this thread. I’m not knowledgeable on currencies and it’s useful to see what may be impacting movements :t_up:
beacon
18-11-2023, 09:25 AM
I follow this thread. I’m not knowledgeable on currencies and it’s useful to see what may be impacting movements :t_up:
Thanks audiav. I also believe I've played a small but useful part for NZD ... by posting here.
Westpac - Only one bank left predicting OCR increase
ANZ ... revising its forecast, no hikes ... OCR on hold at 5.5% until a cut in February 2025.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/301010966/only-one-bank-left-predicting-ocr-increase
Daytr
18-11-2023, 11:25 AM
Yeah, more of a chronicle now - since there is not much others have posted.
Maybe not much vested interest in the pair to care, or not enough to say...
... So be it. It is still helpful to me. Writing here clears my thinking. Hope it helps others too..
Fair enough buddy. I enjoy your posts.
Valuegrowth
18-11-2023, 11:40 AM
I am following this. Both currency trend and interest rates are very important to me. Thanks.
Thanks audiav. I also believe I've played a small but useful part for NZD ... by posting here.
Westpac - Only one bank left predicting OCR increase
ANZ ... revising its forecast, no hikes ... OCR on hold at 5.5% until a cut in February 2025.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/301010966/only-one-bank-left-predicting-ocr-increase
Valuegrowth
18-11-2023, 11:41 AM
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-change-of-the-rbnz-remit-could-support-kiwi-ing-202311171547
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-closes-a-losing-week-amid-dovish-bets-on-the-fed-202311171817
beacon
19-11-2023, 07:57 AM
Far too many "unknowns" (e.g. how many of the fiscal skeletons in the Lab Govt Cupboard are going to be revealed over the next few months?)
Willis today emphasised the realistic outcomes of that mini-Budget. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/coalition-talks-winston-peters-to-meet-with-christopher-luxon-this-afternoon-treaty-use-deal-structure-still-uncertain-as-discussions-stretch-into-weekend/IE5YE5GPXVANLABU2KULPPFJHY/
”We’ve put emphasis on the word ‘mini’ in mini-Budget and the reason for that is we are necessarily constrained in what we can do between now and Christmas,” she said.
”What we will have is a half-year economic and fiscal update which will provide us an opportunity to transparently share with New Zealanders the real state of the books, the real state of the economy, for us to respond to that as a government in terms of what our fiscal priorities will be, what policy we’re kicking off to respond to New Zealand’s economic and fiscal situation and to get on with the main job which is reducing the cost of living for New Zealanders.”
Expecting range-bound volatility with an upward bias, until she bares the cupboard.
Expecting NZD to break up if no startling revelations in books, or major surprises in joint Govt. composition or policy ...
beacon
19-11-2023, 08:00 AM
Fair enough buddy. I enjoy your posts.
Thank you Daytr. I have also found your inputs thought provoking. Thank you
beacon
19-11-2023, 08:15 AM
I am following this. Both currency trend and interest rates are very important to me. Thanks.
Thanks Valuegrowth.
Thank you too for posting the above link https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-change-of-the-rbnz-remit-could-support-kiwi-ing-202311171547 . Succinctly worded conundrum, isn't it.
Tax cuts are inflationary, but should help NZ and Kiwis with cost of living. Higher for longer OCR hurts Kiwi spending power, but is NZD supportive ( and hence better for NZ overall).
Interesting to see that Economists at ING are bullish on the NZD/USD and believe that if new government does change the RBNZ remit – it will be a potentially bullish factor for the Kiwi.
beacon
19-11-2023, 08:22 AM
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-closes-a-losing-week-amid-dovish-bets-on-the-fed-202311171817
Technical Analysis: US Dollar bears regain the 100-day SMA, more downside on the horizon
According to the daily chart, the DXY holds a bearish technical bias as the sellers are seizing control, signaling the potential of further downward movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending below its midline, suggesting a bearish outlook, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) histogram shows rising red bars.
On the broader scale, the index is below the 20 and 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), favoring the case of a negative outlook for the USD.
The antipodeans should benefit more than other G10 pairs in the long run from USD weakness. They generally also lead the others in breakouts. So yeah, stars aligning for NZD reversion to mean...
beacon
19-11-2023, 08:45 AM
Risks: Iran, Hezbollah or Saudi martial involvement in MidEast War theatre - not just political posturing and noise!
Been five weeks of political posturing and noise since I last posted this, but so far the conflict remains essentially localized despite the shocking loss of life, property and ethics.
These risks are dissipating with time, but they remain...
winner69
21-11-2023, 06:25 PM
Nz trade deficit was a little larger than the market expected. This could lead to an increase in the NZ dollar.
beacon
22-11-2023, 11:50 AM
Nz trade deficit was a little larger than the market expected. This could lead to an increase in the NZ dollar.
New Zealand's trade deficit shrank to $1.709 billion in October 2023 from $2.315 billion in the same month of the previous year.
Exports down 9.3% to $5.4 billion, imports down 14% to $7.1 billion.
source: Statistics New Zealand
Go NZD :t_up:
beacon
22-11-2023, 12:15 PM
... reported wage increases versus a year earlier dropped to 4.9% - that’s the lowest read since March 2022.
BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis says movement in the labour market is nothing short of startling. “Businesses have rapidly moved from not being able to find staff, for love nor money, to having choice in who they hire.”
This is best seen in NZIER’s QSBO which shows the ease of finding skilled labour improving markedly and labour turnover tumbling. Both of these variables are key indicators for future wage inflation. This, plus feedback from businesses, convinces us that wage inflation has well and truly peaked, Toplis says.
https://tmmonline.nz/article/976522518/ocr-cuts-and-when-they-will-start?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=When+OCR+cuts+will+start+
beacon
22-11-2023, 12:17 PM
Adding to the OCR [cuts next year] expectation, high interest rates have also depressed consumer spending – down 3.7% over the past three quarters and falling.
https://tmmonline.nz/article/976522518/ocr-cuts-and-when-they-will-start?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=When+OCR+cuts+will+start+
Daytr
22-11-2023, 01:38 PM
I'm surprised the NZD isn't tanking based on those numbers.
beacon
22-11-2023, 02:16 PM
I'm surprised the NZD isn't tanking based on those numbers.
RBNZ wanted consumer, corporate and Government to control spending. It is happening, leading to small but continuing successes in controlling Inflation and inflation expectations, without lifting OCR.
Plus National Government to form. Stimulation and growth to come with tax cuts, which while inflationary - strengthen NZ economy. Strong economy growing again = currency should keep getting stronger.
US and China are talking and trading again, which benefits China - and their proxy antipodeans. Why are we still below 62c?
Daytr
22-11-2023, 04:08 PM
RBNZ wanted consumer, corporate and Government to control spending. It is happening, leading to small but continuing successes in controlling Inflation and inflation expectations, without lifting OCR.
Plus National Government to form. Stimulation and growth to come with tax cuts, which while inflationary - strengthen NZ economy. Strong economy growing again = currency should keep getting stronger.
US and China are talking and trading again, which benefits China - and their proxy antipodeans. Why are we still below 62c?
I look at it differently.
If inflation is under control & the economy is weakening with consumer spending down then the likelihood of a rate cut sooner rather than later.
If there is less yield comparative to other currencies then we should see the Kiwi weaken against them.
Entrep
22-11-2023, 04:50 PM
If NZD can hold above 60.5c I think the lows are in. Happy to have hedged a crapload of future USD earnings under 59c the last few weeks.
Daytr
22-11-2023, 07:35 PM
If NZD can hold above 60.5c I think the lows are in. Happy to have hedged a crapload of future USD earnings under 59c the last few weeks.
It's not holding that now trading 60.25 but overall I think 59c will prove to be a good level. I regret not buying at 0.5780, however I'm not sure NZD weakness has played out fully yet and I look at the Aussie cross thinking the NZD is still relatively strong.
I have no axe to grind here and I think any level sub 60c is a pretty good level when you look historically.
Only time will tell.
New Zealand's trade deficit shrank to $1.709 billion in October 2023 from $2.315 billion in the same month of the previous year.
Exports down 9.3% to $5.4 billion, imports down 14% to $7.1 billion.
source: Statistics New Zealand
Go NZD :t_up:
Beacon, better news, yes. But lest not forget that we are still running a monthly trade deficit of $1.5+ BILLION. Keep this behaviour up (living beyond our means) and the country will ultimately be poorer for it....leading to further value destruction of our currency.
Daytr
22-11-2023, 10:25 PM
Beacon, better news, yes. But lest not forget that we are still running a monthly trade deficit of $1.5+ BILLION. Keep this behaviour up (living beyond our means) and the country will ultimately be poorer for it....leading to further value destruction of our currency.
And my take on those numbers is that the economy is shrinking despite inflation.
And my take on those numbers is the economy is shrinking despite inflation.
New govt has some work to do thats for sure.
winner69
23-11-2023, 08:00 AM
Beveridge Curve looking good for you guys
beacon
23-11-2023, 08:17 AM
... the economy is weakening with consumer spending down ...
Consumer spending cuts do not necessarily and always mean a weakening economy. I think these (reatail spending) cuts are transitory, and for the moment, just an adjustment of expense heads anyway. Further, consumers are adjusting their retail spending down in US too... https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/22/despite-strong-economy-americans-are-spending-less.html
... likelihood of a [NZ] rate cut sooner rather than later. If there is less yield comparative to other currencies then we should see the Kiwi weaken against them.
US is looking to cut too, so yield differential will not widen much even if Orr cuts earlier than him. Powell (like many other Central bankers including Orr) is in a hard place. He cannot appear dovish until he cuts.
None of this takes anything materially away from the advantage NZD is slowly, but surely, regaining on USD - especially as we have no QT. So, an OCR or FFR cut or parity can offer only a kaleidoscopic view at best, at the moment. Why then did NZD test 60c again after coming so close to 61c in the last 48 hours? I think cos USD was bid after UMich inflation expectations surprised everyone on the higher side.
Anyway, on net balance, I think a breach of 62c ceiling remains a distinct possibility this month.
beacon
23-11-2023, 08:25 AM
I regret not buying at 0.5780, however I'm not sure NZD weakness has played out fully yet ...
I regret not buying more too. Reasoning gave way to caution (about market irrationality), and I trimmed my orders down all the way to 55c.
I think I've well and truly missed that boat now, but I remain happy for NZ that we didn't see 55c.
beacon
23-11-2023, 08:30 AM
Beacon, better news, yes. But lest not forget that we are still running a monthly trade deficit of $1.5+ BILLION. Keep this behaviour up (living beyond our means) and the country will ultimately be poorer for it....leading to further value destruction of our currency.
You are using May figures, which was a record deficit. The deficit was NZ$14.8 billion in the 12 months through October, as per Statistics New Zealand.
That's 1.2 billion per month and falling, and the smallest since December 2022. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-20/new-zealand-posts-smallest-annual-trade-deficit-since-december?srnd=premium-europe#:~:text=The%20deficit%20was%20NZ%2414.8,%24 17.1%20billion%20gap%20in%20May.
I do agree with you that it is still high, historically speaking, and that living within our means is a surer path to our prosperity. We can't curtail imports much, so we should get more innovative and productive with our exports, without continually trying to suck at the NZD depreciation teat.
beacon
23-11-2023, 09:01 AM
And my take on those numbers is that the economy is shrinking despite inflation.
That's an interesting inference! Let us see now. Does the economy shrink if trade deficit falls and there is inflation? Hmmm...
A trade deficit occurs when a country imports more than it exports. In the short run, a negative balance of trade curbs inflation. However, over time, a substantial trade deficit weakens domestic industries and decreases job opportunities.
A current account deficit may imply the economy is becoming uncompetitive and the exchange rate relatively overvalued. For countries with a floating exchange rate like NZ, this is not so serious because market forces will cause a depreciation to restore competitiveness.
Recent research does not indicate that developing economies with current account deficits grow faster. https://www.thebalancemoney.com/trade-deficit-definition-causes-effects-role-in-bop-3305898
Therefore, a fall in trade deficit may not necessarily shrink the economy.
In fact, a large trade deficit can actually indicate economic growth. When the economy of a country grows and strengthens, consumers have more wealth to buy goods from overseas, which will increase the trade deficit.
A strong economy also attracts foreign investors, further enlarging the trade deficit. Trade Deficit: Definition, Causes, and Economic Effects - 2023 - MasterClass (https://www.masterclass.com/articles/trade-deficit-definition)
Reducing the value of the exchange rate can help to reduce a trade deficit. When NZD falls it makes NZ exports more competitive, increasing quantity demanded.
A depreciation also makes imports more expensive, reducing demand for imports and foreign holidays. Therefore, we would expect a depreciation to improve the trade deficit.
Hmmm... so on balance Daytr, I disagree with you. NZD should keep strengthening, given the circumstances!
beacon
23-11-2023, 09:27 AM
Beveridge Curve looking good for you guys
Yeah, thanks again Winner. Down vertically, and extending right. Looking good for NZ...
The labour market remains strong, Vacancies trending down without a sharp rise in unemployment. https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2023/august/mps-briefing-august-2023.pdf
beacon
23-11-2023, 09:42 AM
[Beveridge curve] Down vertically, and extending right. Looking good for NZ...
14860
For those who want to know more: Special feature: Beveridge curve in New Zealand, https://www.mbie.govt.nz/business-and-employment/employment-and-skills/labour-market-reports-data-and-analysis/jobs-online/special-feature-beveridge-curve-in-new-zealand/
The Beveridge curve shows changes in matching between the demand for and supply of labour and reflects the business cycle. The time line in the graph above shows the time series in sequence, starting with 1990 Q1 and finishing with 2023 Q2.
The supply of labour is represented by the unemployment rate (people who were unemployed and actively seeking work) and the demand for labour is represented by the vacancy rate. The vacancy rate is calculated by dividing the internet vacancies by employment. The unemployment rate is the ratio of unemployment levels to the labour force. The vacancies are from Jobs Online (now a mature internet vacancy market), while employment and unemployment are from the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS).
When the economy is expanding the vacancy rate is high. This usually corresponds with a lower unemployment rate, with the underlying implication that vacancies provide opportunities for those who are unemployed to gain employment.
Conversely, when the labour market is contracting the vacancy rate is low. This usually corresponds with a higher unemployment rate.
An upward shift can indicate a reduction in matching efficiency (the degree to which the skills of the unemployed match the requirements of the available jobs), as it implies that the unemployment rate does not fall with higher vacancy rates. The national and regional curves tend to shift to the right following a recession, due to uncertainties in the economy after the recession.
winner69
23-11-2023, 12:35 PM
That's an interesting inference! Let us see now. Does the economy shrink if trade deficit falls and there is inflation? Hmmm...
A trade deficit occurs when a country imports more than it exports. In the short run, a negative balance of trade curbs inflation. However, over time, a substantial trade deficit weakens domestic industries and decreases job opportunities.
A current account deficit may imply the economy is becoming uncompetitive and the exchange rate relatively overvalued. For countries with a floating exchange rate like NZ, this is not so serious because market forces will cause a depreciation to restore competitiveness.
Recent research does not indicate that developing economies with current account deficits grow faster. https://www.thebalancemoney.com/trade-deficit-definition-causes-effects-role-in-bop-3305898
Therefore, a fall in trade deficit may not necessarily shrink the economy.
In fact, a large trade deficit can actually indicate economic growth. When the economy of a country grows and strengthens, consumers have more wealth to buy goods from overseas, which will increase the trade deficit.
A strong economy also attracts foreign investors, further enlarging the trade deficit. Trade Deficit: Definition, Causes, and Economic Effects - 2023 - MasterClass (https://www.masterclass.com/articles/trade-deficit-definition)
Reducing the value of the exchange rate can help to reduce a trade deficit. When NZD falls it makes NZ exports more competitive, increasing quantity demanded.
A depreciation also makes imports more expensive, reducing demand for imports and foreign holidays. Therefore, we would expect a depreciation to improve the trade deficit.
Hmmm... so on balance Daytr, I disagree with you. NZD should keep strengthening, given the circumstances!
Think through the basic GDP formula
GDP = private consumption + gross private investment + government investment + government spending + (exports – imports).
beacon
23-11-2023, 03:32 PM
Think through the basic GDP formula
GDP = private consumption + gross private investment + government investment + government spending + (exports – imports).
(exports – imports) = Trade Surplus
So, GDP = private consumption + gross private investment + government investment + government spending + Trade Surplus
Ceteris paribus, GDP up (=economy growing) if Trade Surplus up, OR Trade Deficit (opposite of Trade Surplus) DOWN
winner69
23-11-2023, 03:40 PM
(exports – imports) = Trade Surplus
So, GDP = private consumption + gross private investment + government investment + government spending + Trade Surplus
Ceteris paribus, GDP up (=economy growing) if Trade Surplus up, OR Trade Deficit (opposite of Trade Surplus) DOWN
But need to consider how much of those imports end up as Inventory at end of period as change in Inventories is a component of GDP
beacon
23-11-2023, 04:55 PM
But need to consider how much of those imports end up as Inventory at end of period as change in Inventories is a component of GDP
Ahh... thanks for pointing that out Winner69.
The relationship between imports and GDP is not always straightforward. For example, if imports decrease because of a decrease in consumer demand, as I think is happening in NZ transitorily, then GDP COULD decrease as well.
The relationship between imports and GDP is, however, complex and depends on various factors. When imports decrease, it does not necessarily mean that GDP will decrease. It could lead to an increase in GDP if the other components of GDP increase.
The change in inventories is a component of GDP, but it is only one of the components. The other components, as you said earlier in the GDP formula, are personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, and Govt. consumption expenditures and Govt. gross investment.
The value of imports is actually subtracted from the other components of GDP, not exports. Therefore, if imports decrease, the value of the other components of GDP will increase, which COULD lead to an increase in GDP.
Daytr
24-11-2023, 08:42 AM
Ahh... thanks for pointing that out Winner69.
The relationship between imports and GDP is not always straightforward. For example, if imports decrease because of a decrease in consumer demand, as I think is happening in NZ transitorily, then GDP COULD decrease as well.
The relationship between imports and GDP is, however, complex and depends on various factors. When imports decrease, it does not necessarily mean that GDP will decrease. It could lead to an increase in GDP if the other components of GDP increase.
The change in inventories is a component of GDP, but it is only one of the components. The other components, as you said earlier in the GDP formula, are personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, and Govt. consumption expenditures and Govt. gross investment.
The value of imports is actually subtracted from the other components of GDP, not exports. Therefore, if imports decrease, the value of the other components of GDP will increase, which COULD lead to an increase in GDP.
I would suggest when BOTH imports & exports decrease, unless it's an anomaly in reporting, that GDP is decreasing and perhaps quite considerably.
beacon
24-11-2023, 09:10 AM
I would suggest when BOTH imports & exports decrease, unless it's an anomaly in reporting, that GDP is decreasing ...
Agree, but they are still lagging indicators. NZD price already reflects the bad. It was a long night, and dawn is here. Yet, we are still way below 88c.
Confidence is a (one of) leading indicator(s). NZ directors a little less pessimistic on the economy than last year...
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/economy/nz-directors-a-little-less-pessimistic-on-the-economy-than-last-year?utm_source=nzh&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=nzh-home
Unfortunately, many folk, including most politicians (ex finance minister Robertson, being a classic example), journalists and even a few economists (the NZCTU one being a prime example) don't REALLY understand all things "GDP" related. Many folk will base their thinking, and hence narrative, around the false premise that GDP is THE measure of the prosperity of the country's citizens.
As clearly shown over recent years, whilst the State continues to enlarge its presence in the country, spreading its marauding tentacles wider & deeper (excessive Govt. expenditure, borrowing etc), this only distorts the GDP numbers printed, for the short/medium-term. But of course the Sugar Hits can't & won't continue infinitum - A-la Argentina.
As is often the case with all things "economic performance" related , the devil is in the detail. Knowing the general methodology for how the country's GDP is determined is relatively straightforward. Understanding, actually, what & how the various components of the formula get measured, and how they truly interrelate from a 'cause & effect' perspective is way beyond most folks' comprehension.
Additionally, many folk just assume that the methodology for GDP calculation is commonly agreed too & hence applied consistently across the OECD and beyond. Not so. If 'commentators' & politicians espouse a certain narrative when benchmarking NZ inc against other countries (e.g. "we are doing so much better than most other countries"), we could possibly be a tad reticent at swallowing that hook, line & sinker.
So yes, relative to other currencies, over the next few months & years the NZD may go up. It also may go down, or simply consolidate at current levels.
But on its own, sadly, the trajectory has been, and remains, very clear.
Daytr
24-11-2023, 02:59 PM
Agree, but they are still lagging indicators. NZD price already reflects the bad. It was a long night, and dawn is here. Yet, we are still way below 88c.
Confidence is a (one of) leading indicator(s). NZ directors a little less pessimistic on the economy than last year...
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/economy/nz-directors-a-little-less-pessimistic-on-the-economy-than-last-year?utm_source=nzh&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=nzh-home
How are they lagging indicators?
Or do you mean the reporting is lagging I.e it's for the 3rd quarter.
winner69
24-11-2023, 03:47 PM
New coalition agreement seen as hawkish ….that might help nzd
beacon
24-11-2023, 06:13 PM
How are they lagging indicators?
Or do you mean the reporting is lagging I.e it's for the 3rd quarter.
yep, rear view mirror
Daytr
24-11-2023, 06:46 PM
yep, rear view mirror
So do you think those numbers are improving this quarter?
And if so why?
Valuegrowth
24-11-2023, 08:36 PM
Some experts say US rates have peaked. Rising NZD will reduce import cost and our fuel cost.
New coalition agreement seen as hawkish ….that might help nzd
beacon
25-11-2023, 08:49 AM
So do you think those numbers are improving this quarter?
And if so why?
Hard to predict this with confidence, but they should improve with confidence - and for all the other developments we have been talking about to date, eg., coming tax cuts etc..
At the very least, they should not materially deteriorate going forward - although NZD might be volatile when the Labour cupboard skeletons are bared.
War expansion risks remain, El Nino risks in future. On balance, NZD marches onwards and upwards past 65c...
winner69
27-11-2023, 06:06 PM
AUD hits 3 month highs v USD
How’s NZD doing?
Daytr
27-11-2023, 06:14 PM
AUD hits 3 month highs v USD
How’s NZD doing?
We will know more I suspect after the RBNZ meeting on Wednesday
beacon
28-11-2023, 06:36 AM
AUD hits 3 month highs v USD
How’s NZD doing?
Breached 61c overnight - also hitting 3 month highs v USD.
Expecting 62c resistance tested this month...
Daytr
28-11-2023, 08:57 AM
Breached 61c overnight - also hitting 3 month highs v USD.
Expecting 62c resistance tested this month...
Yep just locked in a small short.
I will establish a much bigger position on the long side if we head back towards the recent lows, otherwise I will be stopped out for a small loss.
Adrian Orr has a habit of saying what he thinks, which is a mistake as a Central Banker & Alan Greenspan would shake his head.
Although it appears Orr is starting to learn not to say too much, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear him let slip that interest rates might be eased sooner rather than later.
If he has learnt from his previous fopahs he will keep schtum and it's steady as she goes, the fight against inflation isn't over etc. And the Kiwi should hold or go higher.
Daytr
28-11-2023, 05:07 PM
Or another scenario is the market is buying the rumor & sells the fact. Certainly seen that again & again.
beacon
28-11-2023, 07:45 PM
Or another scenario is the market is buying the rumor & sells the fact. Certainly seen that again & again.
Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB, today "... break of resistance at $0.6055 increases the chance NZD has entered a trading range up as far as $0.64."
beacon
29-11-2023, 02:15 PM
Breached 61c overnight - also hitting 3 month highs v USD.
Expecting 62c resistance tested this month...
62c breached.
winner69
29-11-2023, 02:26 PM
62c breached.
Instead of just taking about it happening soon Orr should just have done it today …like uo to 5.75%
Daytr
29-11-2023, 02:32 PM
Instead of just taking about it happening soon Orr should just have done it today …like uo to 5.5%
Its already at 5.5%.
Damn! Adrian Orr is learning not to say too much!
No slip up, steady as she goes.
Well done everyone else who was long!
I stopped myself out, let it gap higher & reestablished a small short.
winner69
29-11-2023, 02:52 PM
Its already at 5.5%.
Damn! Adrian Orr is learning not to say too much!
No slip up, steady as she goes.
Well done everyone else who was long!
I stopped myself out, let it gap higher & reestablished a small short.
meant to say 5.75% eh
Next year sometime then
Daytr
29-11-2023, 03:00 PM
meant to say 5.75% eh
Next year sometime then
I doubt it unless something else left field happens.
Daytr
30-11-2023, 10:46 AM
Mixed messages from the FED on interest rates. One says up, one says down...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-rise-growing-bets-rate-cuts-next-year-2023-11-29/
winner69
30-11-2023, 11:32 AM
Nzdusd down today …back where it was prior to Orr being hawkish yesterday
beacon
01-12-2023, 06:36 AM
Nzdusd down today …back where it was prior to Orr being hawkish yesterday
Hawkish surprises seem to have done little to help AUD or NZD in recent past vs USD.
winner69
02-12-2023, 11:22 AM
Big move overnight. …heading back to 64
Daytr
02-12-2023, 11:48 AM
Big move overnight. …heading back to 64
Not really winner69.
Back towards recent highs.
These sort of moves are pretty common at the end of the week. Something I quite often trade.
winner69
04-12-2023, 12:18 PM
New Zealand’s goods terms of trade fell 0.6% in Q3,…Stats NZ
Export prices fell more than import prices
beacon
05-12-2023, 08:17 AM
New Zealand’s goods terms of trade fell 0.6% in Q3,…Stats NZ
Export prices fell more than import prices
Dairy prices tipped to lift by as much as 3% at this week's auction
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/primary-sector/dairy-prices-tipped-to-lift-by-as-much-as-3-at-this-weeks-auction?utm_source=nzh&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=nzh-home
Daytr
05-12-2023, 11:56 AM
Dairy prices tipped to lift by as much as 3% at this week's auction
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/primary-sector/dairy-prices-tipped-to-lift-by-as-much-as-3-at-this-weeks-auction?utm_source=nzh&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=nzh-home
That will help to offset some of the net lower price in NZD terms.
winner69
05-12-2023, 01:29 PM
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index fell 1.3% m/m in November as prices eased for most of the food commodities that we export
Daytr
06-12-2023, 07:58 AM
Technically the Kiwi ain't looking good.
Locked in lower highs in the downward channel. Unless there is a reversal, to continue the downward channel trend suggests around 57c is on the radar.
winner69
06-12-2023, 08:03 AM
Overnight auction ….. GDT Price Index up 1.6%
Won’t affect nzd
Despite the current upward move since late Oct, the NZDUSD seems to still be respecting the clear downward trendline (originating over 2 years ago).
Currently, a 2dc over 0.6230 is needed to demonstrate that a longer lasting low has been printed.
beacon
07-12-2023, 06:33 AM
Technically the Kiwi ain't looking good.
Locked in lower highs in the downward channel. Unless there is a reversal, to continue the downward channel trend suggests around 57c is on the radar.
I disagree. I think it just tested 50 SMA and bounced back. If it closes this week and next above 61c (highly likely), 61c should become the new support.
beacon
07-12-2023, 06:37 AM
Despite the current upward move since late Oct, the NZDUSD seems to still be respecting the clear downward trendline (originating over 2 years ago).
Currently, a 2dc over 0.6230 is needed to demonstrate that a longer lasting low has been printed.
I wouldn't be surprised if your 2 year old downtrend is tested and breached this month.
beacon
07-12-2023, 07:23 AM
Despite the current upward move since late Oct, the NZDUSD seems to still be respecting the clear downward trendline (originating over 2 years ago).
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/series/exchange-and-interest-rates/exchange-rates-and-the-trade-weighted-index
Daytr
07-12-2023, 08:19 AM
I disagree. I think it just tested 50 SMA and bounced back. If it closes this week and next above 61c (highly likely), 61c should become the new support.
Hi Beacon, where do you see the 50 SMA?
winner69
07-12-2023, 08:22 AM
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/series/exchange-and-interest-rates/exchange-rates-and-the-trade-weighted-index
Is that good or bad if we want a higher nzd ….or it doesn’t mean much at all
Daytr
07-12-2023, 08:58 AM
Hi Beacon, where do you see the 50 SMA?
I think I get what you mean now, I.e recently being mid November it bounced off the 50D SMA.
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