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View Full Version : Sibanye stillwater SBSW - MEGA miner trading at major miner price



JBmurc
30-11-2023, 08:54 AM
Mega international miner undervalued IMHO thanks to the PGM crash in prices ..but IMHO great buying if you have a longer-term outlook as the miner is more than just PGMs

Marketcap-$3.2Bill USD (A$4.9bill)
P/E -4.26
Yield-8%+
Cash $1.2Bill(DEBT around the same)
SP- $4.55

SBSW holds 51% of DRD Gold that's worth U$822mill (A$1.2Bill) ..

I've only started my research into SBSW but so far I like the risk reward

The 10 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Sibanye Stillwater Ltd have a median target of 6.77, with a high estimate of 11.00 and a low estimate of 3.85. The median estimate represents a +45.19% increase from the last price of 4.67.....

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4641422-sibanye-stillwater-still-looks-good-for-a-patient-investor

Sibanye Stillwater is a South African mining and metals processing group with a diverse portfolio of projects spanning five continents. They are among the world's largest recyclers of platinum group metals (PGM) from auto-catalysts and have controlling interests in mine tailings retreatment operations. Sibanye produces platinum, palladium, rhodium, gold, ruthenium, nickel, chrome, copper, and cobalt, securing various revenue streams.

As The Value Corner, fellow Seeking Alpha analyst wrote in his June article, Sibanye has a wide economic moat that is built on its extensive mining and processing operations, including battery metals, and its global geographic reach. Initially a South African gold mining company, it has expanded through acquisitions and diversification, reducing its reliance on gold prices for profitability. The acquisition of the U.S. PGM business Stillwater has proven crucial for geographical diversification and stability. To date, Sibanye holds controlling stakes in international mining and processing operations, diversifying into "green metals," such as lithium and nickel, which are used in decarbonization projects. The company's diversified portfolio across a wide geographic area helps mitigate risks associated with relying on a single commodity or market, particularly in South Africa's complex political environment.

Anyway, the company's largest revenue segment is South African underground PGM operations - this is the company's largest resources base of all segments:


DISC -BUYING SBSW for long term hold

JBmurc
30-11-2023, 11:42 AM
23Fy production numbers blow my mind for just under $A5bill cap miner... put this in context to other major miners we follow on ASX

GOLD -621Koz

SA PGM 4E- 1.7Moz

US PGM 2E- 421Koz

3E PGM recycling - 599Koz (SS owns smelters major recycler of cats in the world etc)

NIckel - 6800 ton ..

...so IMHO some very impressive production numbers esp PGMs .. now the PGM bumping along at record lows ...but one thing I've learnt over the 20 years+ investing in the mining sector ..you buy when the resource is hated as its only a matter of time till it becomes a market darling once again ...

Sibanye battery metal recent presentation>>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8X8qmTPjddg&t=387s

As SS isn't just a PGM miner but is now moving into Lithium,Uranium,Zinc,Copper with many new projects with great upside production profiles .. IMHO SS is moving in the direction to being a mining powerhouse in the years ahead.


I see forward EPS forecasts for SS just in the short term aka 25Fy sees EPS $2.32 !!!!! here I'm happy to buy up more $4.50's

JBmurc
30-11-2023, 12:29 PM
Impressive Lithium project -refinery outlook for ...SS.

to think you have AZS with near on $2bill cap ... great Li drill results ,,nil MRE ,nil PFS/DFS , no MRE ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S80n18Ky5vw

JBmurc
30-11-2023, 10:15 PM
Some good reading on SBSW

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4653084-sibanye-stillwater-when-a-solid-business-and-market-fundamentals-are-not-enough

planning to add some more tonight on Pd weakness and maybe get them in the low 4.40's

JBmurc
01-12-2023, 08:58 PM
After a few more hours of research Planning to just kick back to the new year with SBSW ..PGM price will continue to be low for some time..and I'd say the 4Q for SBSW won't be the best so only really dipped my toe in at this point with the plan to BUY up large maybe in the low $4 range JAN-FEB 24 ...

PGM turnaround 2025 will be a wake-up call for the sector and see the monster SBSW get some love to hitting those very high levels again later decade + fat yield

JBmurc
22-12-2023, 09:33 AM
SP from $4.55 to $5.53 since I first posted solid 20%+ return ... I did sell so I could secure more GAU but think SBSW won't be far behind the growth I expect from GAU over the next 12months

Ferg
22-12-2023, 04:57 PM
Nicely done JB. The forecast EPS for FY25 you mentioned earlier - will this be a one off spike due to mineral prices spikes or similar? Or will this be a new sustainable base? I haven't done any research into this one yet but you have me curious....

JBmurc
22-12-2023, 07:46 PM
Nicely done JB. The forecast EPS for FY25 you mentioned earlier - will this be a one off spike due to mineral prices spikes or similar? Or will this be a new sustainable base? I haven't done any research into this one yet but you have me curious....

It all depends on how the PGMs go ..SBSW is such a large producer of PGM from memory 1.7MOz pa ... so $100oz more across the PGM basket =FCF + $170mill ...

JBmurc
29-04-2024, 10:53 PM
Coming across a couple more PGM plays worth a looks esp when the PGMs turn Bullish only matter of time... these low prices going lead to even more closures

SLP:LSE

THS:LIM

JBmurc
03-05-2024, 10:30 PM
After more research decided to buy back into SBSW 4.50's ... too many great projects .. think we are bumping on the bottom of the cycle negative for SBSW

they have a maze of assets aka like their 30 Million lbs uranium tailings above the ground and just under that amount below the ground that is worth quite a fortune at present uranium spot price...

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/companies/mining/2024-03-20-sibanye-names-industry-veteran-to-drive-uranium-strategies/

JBmurc
04-05-2024, 05:13 PM
looking over SBSW projects is mind blowing ..when you look at CAPEX for many new mining operations A$1-2Bill

SBSW is worth just over A$3.2Bill... Worlds largest Platinum miner...

Projects>> pa production profile ...insane value for operations IMHO

In USA ..

-East Boulder mine>--- 423Koz PGM2 production p

-Reldan recycling plant>-- processed approximately 23mlbs of waste and produced 145koz of gold, 1.9Moz of silver, 22koz of palladium, 25koz of platinum, and 3.4mlbs of copper.

-Columbus Metallurgical Complex>-- processed and recycled a total of 598,774oz 3E PGM ounces from spent recycled catalytic converters

In South Africa

-Rustenburg>-- 628Koz PGM4

-Marikana>-- 672koz PGM4

-Kroonda/Platinum mile>-- 250koz PGM4

-Mimosa 50% JVP implats >-- (115koz) 57koz net PGM4

SA Gold operations

-Beatrix 93koz Gold

-Driefontein 152koz Gold

-Kloof 153koz Gold

-Cooke 32koz Gold

-DRD Gold 50.1% holding - 178koz Gold

-Rand Refinery 44% holding -(one of the largest refiners of gold globally)

Europe

France - nickel refinery with an annual production capacity of 12,000 tonnes of high-purity nickel metal

Aussie

Century zinc- tailings retreatment operation in Queensland, Australia. It is the largest tailings retreatment operation in Australia and ranks among the top 15 global zinc producers>> ---- zinc production of 118,108 metric tonnes

.......

Then you have many development Projects that would be worth upwards $A Billion++>>


Aus-Mt Lyell has a 135Mt Mineral Resource containing 1.1Mt of copper and 0.94Moz of gold across various underground and open pit deposits

SA Gold -two gold projects resources of 16.0Moz+

SA PGM 3x projects 4E PGM Mineral Resources of 53.1Moz.

40% stake in -Altar contained 1,408.6 million tonnes of declared attributable mineral resources at 0.4% copper and 0.1 g/t gold (13.1 billion pounds of copper and 4.3 million ounces of gold).

Canada - Marathon- (211.4 million pounds of copper and 1.0 million ounces of 2E+Au PGMs).

Finland- Keliber Lithium 79.8% JV - aims to be the first integrated high-purity lithium operation, producing lithium hydroxide chemicals from its own mined ore reserves. Estimated annual production of approximately 15,000 tonnes

Uranium SA>>- 32 million pounds of uranium resources on the surface at the Cooke tailings dam, and 27 million pounds of uranium resources at Beatrix

.....and I'm sure I've missed some projects ....huge exploration permits around the world


2022 PRECIOUS METALS MINERAL RESOURCE (389.5MOZ)