2024 NZX Stock Picking Comp

[xp04]

Hi Everyone,

Here is the link to the 2024 NZX Stock Picking Competition board

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j1jwFjyUnGGqLZX_o8PAJsxZ5Y0L60Em0VxcUDvrT2c/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j1jwFjyUnGGqLZX_o8PAJsxZ5Y0L60Em0VxcUDvrT2c/edit?usp=sharing)


As usual, data and information will be updated regularly during trading hours.

Here are the rules and other information for 2024 NZX Stock Picking Competition.

Rules:
"1) Pick FIVE different NZX-listed equity instruments (incl. Smartshares and foreign companies listed in NZ).
- Companies/Funds with a market cap of less than $7m may not be selected."
2) Please also make SIXTH & SEVENTH picks - this will be used as a 'backup preference' should one or two of your picks delist or merge during the year. It won't cover companies that are placed in liquidation or dissolved.
3) Each pick has an equal weighting. You cannot pick the same option more than once.
4) Picks in by 9am January 3rd 2024 (New Zealand time); i.e., prior to trading opening.

Returns calculations:
1) Each will start with a notional portfolio of $50,000 ($10,000 per pick)
2) Returns will be calculate from the last closing price of 2023 (Dec 29th 2023) to the last closing price of 2024.
3) Its a 'total return' competition. Dividends, Rights, Warrants will be included.
3.1) Dividends will be calculated as following: for PIE entities declared Dividend Amount will be used; for non PIE entities the following formula is used (Dividend Amount + Imputation Credit) - 33%. So, effectively it will be Net Dividends. In addition for Dividends paid in AUD and GBP appropriate exchange rates will apply
3.2) Rights issue will be calculated as following: Number of rights will calculated according to declared ratio. Amount needed to buy new shares will be Number of rights multiplied by Exercise/Issue Price. To cover that amount Number of existing shares will be "sold". That number will be Amount needed divided by Share price at the end of the first trading day after the announcement. Difference between new Issued shares and shares "sold" to cover cost will be added to your holding.
3.3) Warrants issue will be calculated as following: Number of warrants will be calculated according to declared ratio. If warrants declared as tradable on NZX, value of those warrants according to the current price will be added to associated ticker. Otherwise there will be no additional value. Also there will be no additional value if warrants exercise date is before end of 2024.
4) If a selection delists or otherwise somehow dissolves; it will be kept but adjusted in your selections to reflect the realised situation resulting from the event causing this. The realisation will then be "re-invested" in your backup preference (see 2), allowing the opportunity to continue participation on a level playing field.
5) Winner is the person who has the largest %age increase.

How to register:

Registration is now closed.


Here is the link to Registration form https://script.google.com/macros/s/AKfycbzh6Dai6HLSL8H5JD9TIancAQTfTrFAXxUq8SYohvv5EW 4tsodHusBSDMccQsGP7HI2/exec (https://script.google.com/macros/s/AKfycbzh6Dai6HLSL8H5JD9TIancAQTfTrFAXxUq8SYohvv5EW 4tsodHusBSDMccQsGP7HI2/exec)

To register for the first time you need to provide User Name of your choice (if User Name you have chosen already in use you would need to choose another one) and E-mail address then click 'Request Unique Code'. An unique code will be send to email address you provided. If you can't find that email in your Inbox folder you might need to check your Junk/Spam folder. After you receive your Unique Code you can copy-paste it into Unique Code field. Now you can use it along with User Name and E-mail address which you have registered to enter or update your entries by clicking 'Continue'. Once you entered your picks click 'Submit'.
If you lose your unique code you can use the same User Name and E-mail to request it again. Click 'Request Unique Code' and the same unique code will be send to the email address you provided.
You will be able to register up to 3 different User Names with the same email address. Each User Name will receive its own unique code.
If you want to change/update your selection just use the same form enter User Name, E-mail and Unique Code you have used at first registration and click 'Continue'. After you made changes click 'Submit'.

Registration will be closed 9am January 3rd 2024 (New Zealand time) prior to trading opening.

To see the list of all current participants, eligible companies and competition rules click this link https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pheuKnW4jxZbhwTjxdKvWmMLeapre1F7js7NLywwEGk/edit#gid=0 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pheuKnW4jxZbhwTjxdKvWmMLeapre1F7js7NLywwEGk/edit#gid=0)

If you encounter any issues please let me know

Good luck to you all!

xp04

[Bobdn]

Excellent! it worked a treat, thank you.

Wow I wouldn't know how to organise something like this. I'd have to do it with pencil and paper.

[percy]

Excellent! it worked a treat, thank you.

Wow I wouldn't know how to organise something like this. I'd have to do it with pencil and paper.

Worked a treat for me too.
Thank you xpo4 for running this year's competition.

[mwri]

Many thanks for setting this up. Best of luck to everyone

[nztx]

Many thanks xp04 for running this for 2024

Everything works a treat :)

We lost a lot of the fun volatile picks, like NTL etc this time

[stones]

Up and running. Thanks xpo4.

[xp04]

We lost a lot of the fun volatile picks, like NTL etc this time

Thank you everyone.

I do not know where that rule come from but I agree that restrictions on market cap is a bit harsh. I think some small companies are quite popular around here and surely someone would be happy to add them to their selection. Rules are meant to be broken. So, it’s not too late to make some exceptions to that rule. Let me know if you want some currently excluded companies to be added.

Merry Christmas to you all and have a safe one!
Cheers

[SouthernSlim]

Thanks in advance for your services xpo4 for running the comp ,
Good luck to fellow contestants.
Hopefully we are all in for a wild positive ride 2024.Yeeha!

[JimmyTrade]

The year for Synlait return to the glory days! :t_up:

[mike2020]

My guess 2031!

[nztx]

Thanks in advance for your services xpo4 for running the comp ,
Good luck to fellow contestants.
Hopefully we are all in for a wild positive ride 2024.Yeeha!


A wild ride on NZX ? ;)

Just about as scarce as blue moons ? :)

[clip]

Thank you everyone.

I do not know where that rule come from but I agree that restrictions on market cap is a bit harsh. I think some small companies are quite popular around here and surely someone would be happy to add them to their selection. Rules are meant to be broken. So, it’s not too late to make some exceptions to that rule. Let me know if you want some currently excluded companies to be added.

Merry Christmas to you all and have a safe one!
Cheers

I would be happy to have NTL, it's a fun wildcard and has a long history of hate on sharetrader, myself and a lot of other people here are still holding and hoping, I would like to pick it in the comp

[xp04]

Well, I suggest some compromise. Lets lower market cap threshold to 7 millions. In that case the following companies will be eligible:

CCC Cooks Coffee Company Limited $9.1M
CRP Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited $8.3M
ENS Enprise Group Limited $12.0M
NTL New Talisman Gold Mines Limited $8.8M
TRU TruScreen Group Limited $9.7M
VTL Vital Limited $10.0M

If there are not many objections I will make changes to Registration form tomorrow and those who want to update there selections will be able to with their existing user name, email and code.

[traineeinvestor]

xp04 - many thanks for running the 2024 competition

Unfortunately, I'm having trouble accessing the form - After several attempts (and rechecking that I'm putting everything in correctly), I keep getting this message: "Error: User traineeinvestor not found."

Not sure what I'm doing wrong?

[nztx]

xp04 - many thanks for running the 2024 competition

Unfortunately, I'm having trouble accessing the form - After several attempts (and rechecking that I'm putting everything in correctly), I keep getting this message: "Error: User traineeinvestor not found."

Not sure what I'm doing wrong?






A Winner on the 2023 ASX one - Well done - but surely you're promoted to Honorary Assistant to xp04 in this one for NZ as a bonus prize .. but with limitations ? ;)

[Toddy]

Well, I suggest some compromise. Lets lower market cap threshold to 7 millions. In that case the following companies will be eligible:

CCC Cooks Coffee Company Limited $9.1M
CRP Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited $8.3M
ENS Enprise Group Limited $12.0M
NTL New Talisman Gold Mines Limited $8.8M
TRU TruScreen Group Limited $9.7M
VTL Vital Limited $10.0M

If there are not many objections I will make changes to Registration form tomorrow and those who want to update there selections will be able to with their existing user name, email and code.

And if at any stage the market cap falls below 7m during the competition then the company is automatically disqualified.

Fair is fair if you start allowing companies with not much more value than a decent house in Remuera.

[xp04]

xp04 - many thanks for running the 2024 competition

Unfortunately, I'm having trouble accessing the form - After several attempts (and rechecking that I'm putting everything in correctly), I keep getting this message: "Error: User traineeinvestor not found."

Not sure what I'm doing wrong?





Hi traineeinvestor,

For some reason I'm unable to send you a private message.
I checked your record and everything works fine. Have you actually received the code and have you used the same email address and that code to submit your picks?

[xp04]

Hi Everyone,

I have noticed quite a few incomplete entries for the competition. It looks like people registered (requested code) but did not submit their picks. Please check if you were added to the current participants list https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pheuKnW4jxZbhwTjxdKvWmMLeapre1F7js7NLywwEGk/edit#gid=0
If you are not on this list you need to submit your picks as instructed in the first post on this thread. If you have any issues to do so please let me know

Thanks

[Paint it Black]

And if at any stage the market cap falls below 7m during the competition then the company is automatically disqualified.

Fair is fair if you start allowing companies with not much more value than a decent house in Remuera.

Don't agree Toddy as it could then become complicated if a company yoyo's under and over $7 million. Also it could then disqualify punters who pick one of these stocks. Suggest just keep it simple and allow the companies XPO4 has listed for the full 2024. If any of these fall below $7million then the SP will probably reflect this fall anyway,

[Bobdn]

Tom Lee thinks US small caps could increase 50 per cent in the next 12 months (prediction a few weeks old, they've already started moving). Anyway thats why I've included them in my picks - not that anyone was wondering.

I own everything in my picks.

[Bobdn]

@SR, nah, I've owned everything for years now. Years! I do seek out commentators that reinforce my existing portfolio holdings however ;)

This is what I was referring to:

https://youtu.be/wCxzxPcV0hw?si=kJNzuVhc9Vb2oI5W

[xp04]

Alright, I made the change. Market cap threshold was lowered to 7 millions. The following companies now can be selected as your pick

CCC Cooks Coffee Company Limited $9.1M
CRP Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited $8.3M
ENS Enprise Group Limited $12.0M
NTL New Talisman Gold Mines Limited $8.8M
TRU TruScreen Group Limited $9.7M
VTL Vital Limited $10.0M

There won't be any company disqualifications once competition started.
Any of you who wish to update your selections are welcome to do so free of charge :) Just use the same user name, email address and code as in original submission. You can do as many changes as you want until closing date 9:00am January 3rd 2024.

As I pointed out earlier there are quite a few incomplete entries for the competition. The following users might want to check their status and enter or update their picks.

Dark Horse
Carl Thomas
Freebee
traineeinvestor
Habits
Snigmac
gv1
Snoopy
Ziggy
JUSTASKPERCY

If your existing Code does not work you will need to request a new one.


Everyone, please check again if you are on the list 2024 NZX Stock Picking Competition Registration - Google Sheets (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pheuKnW4jxZbhwTjxdKvWmMLeapre1F7js7NLywwEGk/edit#gid=0)
If you are not - you are not in the competition.
Thank you.

[777]

Did anyone else get this on registering.....

TypeError: el[0].toUpperCase is not a function

No upper case was used.

[xp04]

Did anyone else get this on registering.....

TypeError: el[0].toUpperCase is not a function

No upper case was used.

Give me a minute. I'll look at this

[Jay]

Yes me too Triple 7
TypeError: el[0].toUpperCase is not a function

Uppercase was used in my user name but so have plenty of others

[xp04]

Did anyone else get this on registering.....

TypeError: el[0].toUpperCase is not a function

No upper case was used.

Should work now. Did not expect name to be a number :)
You would need to request a new Code and refresh your browser

[777]

That worked thank you xp04

Thank you also for running the competition.

[Pricey]

Done, thanks for sorting - any chance of linking a poll to this thread? I am interested to know whether people actually pick companies within their portfolio or just take a punt?

[Paint it Black]

Are you entering the stock picking competition this year SailorRob? Maybe even your 'mate' Daytr will also have a punt? Would be interesting to see how you both go tee hee.

[777]

Are you entering the stock picking competition this year SailorRob? Maybe even your 'mate' Daytr will also have a punt? Would be interesting to see how you both go tee hee.

Very interesting. May be as well as a similar "dude" did in the crypto competition. All noise.

[JBmurc]

Have entered my first NZX comp is along time ... be interesting to see how my picks go

[SailorRob]

Very interesting. May be as well as a similar "dude" did in the crypto competition. All noise.

I haven't responded yet to paint it black, I will when I have time. But what are you saying here, can you clarify for me please?

[xp04]

Done, thanks for sorting - any chance of linking a poll to this thread? I am interested to know whether people actually pick companies within their portfolio or just take a punt?

I don't think it's possible to link a poll to existing thread

[Jay]

Yes me too Triple 7
TypeError: el[0].toUpperCase is not a function

Uppercase was used in my user name but so have plenty of others


Worked for me the next day - even though no numbers in my moniker!

[winner69]

Bugger, was going to do the STU man trick to win this years comp

TRA best thing for 2024 amd the entry was going to be TRA TRA TRA TRA TRA but bugger it you can’t replicate picks:t_down:

[alokdhir]

Bugger, was going to do the STU man trick to win this years comp

TRA best thing for 2024 amd the entry was going to be TRA TRA TRA TRA TRA but bugger it you can’t replicate picks:t_down:

W69 ...lets do a test of TRA resilience from these levels ...duration whole 2024 ...TRA vs KFL ...31st Dec 2024 dont forget to tabulate final outcome ...let the best stock win our this competition !! :D

[xp04]

Hi Everyone,

Just a friendly reminder. Registration will be closed tomorrow morning January 3rd 2024 prior to trading opening.

Thanks

[xp04]

Registration is now closed. Link to the new competition board will be published shortly.
Thanks

[xp04]

Hello again,

The link to the 2024 NZX Stock Picking Competition board is now available

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j1jwFjyUnGGqLZX_o8PAJsxZ5Y0L60Em0VxcUDvrT2c/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j1jwFjyUnGGqLZX_o8PAJsxZ5Y0L60Em0VxcUDvrT2c/edit?usp=sharing)

This link also has been added to the first post on this thread. As usual, data and information will be updated regularly during trading hours. If you find any issues please let me know.

Thanks

[iceman]

Hello again,

The link to the 2024 NZX Stock Picking Competition board is now available https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j1jwFjyUnGGqLZX_o8PAJsxZ5Y0L60Em0VxcUDvrT2c/edit?usp=sharing
This link also has been added to the first post on this thread. As usual, data and information will be updated regularly during trading hours. If you find any issues please let me know.

Thanks

Well done. Thank you.

[Bobdn]

Excellent thank you. I'm already negative out of the gate but I'm not giving up on the year just yet.

[Paint it Black]

Excellent thank you. I'm already negative out of the gate but I'm not giving up on the year just yet.

Thank you also XP04 - a fantastic contribution to Sharetrader which I'm sure will be keenly followed!

[alokdhir]

Hello again,

The link to the 2024 NZX Stock Picking Competition board is now available https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j1jwFjyUnGGqLZX_o8PAJsxZ5Y0L60Em0VxcUDvrT2c/edit?usp=sharing
This link also has been added to the first post on this thread. As usual, data and information will be updated regularly during trading hours. If you find any issues please let me know.

Thanks

Thanks and very well done ...super organised and simple to track :t_up:

[SCOTTY]

Hello again,

The link to the 2024 NZX Stock Picking Competition board is now available https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j1jwFjyUnGGqLZX_o8PAJsxZ5Y0L60Em0VxcUDvrT2c/edit?usp=sharing
This link also has been added to the first post on this thread. As usual, data and information will be updated regularly during trading hours. If you find any issues please let me know.

Thanks

Congratulations xp04. Your spreadsheet is brilliant :)

[Grimy]

Does anyone know how to make this thread "Sticky", so it stays at the top of the first page?

[percy]

Does anyone know how to make this thread "Sticky", so it stays at the top of the first page?

Send a PM to Vince asking him to do it.

[Grimy]

Thanks Percy. Have done so.

[Bobdn]

I'm at 147, almost last. My whole passive fund thesis is unravelling.

[nztx]

Congratulations xp04. Your spreadsheet is brilliant :)


It sure is - with automatic update of market values

Thanks again XP04

[Grimy]

Just bumping up the list before it drops off the 1st page.

[Toddy]

Why does a stock picking competition need to be on the first page every day?

[Grimy]

Just thought it would be easier/quicker to find. The previous ones are and aren't as relevant.

[Bobdn]

@Grimy good idea. I love the competition and check it every day.

When will Value, Small Caps, emerging markets, the NZX50 start to do the business. C'mon Fu*ckers! It's time to deliver!

It's time for a come back. Yes we had a hint of it in 2022 but it didn't last...

[nztx]

Hello again,

The link to the 2024 NZX Stock Picking Competition board is now available https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j1jwFjyUnGGqLZX_o8PAJsxZ5Y0L60Em0VxcUDvrT2c/edit?usp=sharing
This link also has been added to the first post on this thread. As usual, data and information will be updated regularly during trading hours. If you find any issues please let me know.

Thanks


Bringing forward XP04's link to the Spreadsheet

[Bobdn]

Ah yes I see it's in my Sheets tab. God, that's amazing.

[RupertBear]

Just had a look at the latest placings

JUSTASKPERCY leads the pack

And Percy himself is in 3rd place

Looks like Percy and his admirer are the ones to watch this year! :D

[nztx]

Just had a look at the latest placings

JUSTASKPERCY leads the pack

And Percy himself is in 3rd place

Looks like Percy and his admirer are the ones to watch this year! :D


His Admirer seems to have learnt well :)

[Grimy]

Thanks for your work XP04. Like the rank change column (saves me thinking!).

[Leemsip]

I also love the comp. Thanks grimy.

Some absolutely genius early calls by what the stock. Hope you got real cash invested

[Grimy]

Don't thank me Leemsip!

[What the stock]

Didn't look "absolutely genius" early on, I was absolutely last after the first few days before the position improved - didn't think I'd picked that bad at the time haha. Kudos to the organiser(s) for the excellent spreadsheet, it'll be interesting seeing the progress of the competition over the year

[troyvdh]

Giday I generally focus on the Ozy thread ...not meaning to annoy any one ...How come no one has picked PFI and why MFB ? How many receive C Lees news letter.
Re MFB what is experience of food being delivered like.

[nztx]

Bringing forward XP04's link:


The link to the 2024 NZX Stock Picking Competition board is now available

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j1jwFjyUnGGqLZX_o8PAJsxZ5Y0L60Em0VxcUDvrT2c/edit?usp=sharing

[wizAlvin]

how on earth did you get a moderator or someone to make this sticky. on the ASX side - nothing i do get any response. ?????

[ronaldson]

"Bloodbath" experience for those unfortunate enough to have included "blue chip" FBU in their competition portfolio.

[Bobdn]

Wow, I'm in the top 10! Not bad for someone who, seriously, can't read a balance sheet.

Please don't ask about my "process". It's highly confidential and included careful analysis of 9832 listed companies - I decided to include the lot.

Edit: I see I have a competitor in Waiuta (currently number 2). Like your style man - it's a battle of the ETFs

[Waiuta]

Wow, I'm in the top 10! Not bad for someone who, seriously, can't read a balance sheet.

Please don't ask about my "process". It's highly confidential and included careful analysis of 9832 listed companies - I decided to include the lot.

Edit: I see I have a competitor in Waiuta (currently number 2). Like your style man - it's a battle of the ETFs

I was lucky enough to win it a couple of years ago with stocks I owned. I've since sold them all except IFT and put the proceeds into managed funds. So, this year ETF's for a punt.

[Bobdn]

Good one.

I'm slowly moving away from some of my Smartshares funds now. It's global share fund (TWF), for example, has fees of 0.4 per cent. It's too much in this day and age. Excellent say 10 years ago but some cheaper NZ based options are available now.

Still, Smartshares have worked well for me in the past. And I should note that the total ASX200 and NZX50 ETFs are more competitively priced. It's US 500 is also not too bad for fees.

[Muse]

Good one.

I'm slowly moving away from some of my Smartshares funds now. It's global share fund (TWF), for example, has fees of 0.4 per cent. It's too much in this day and age. Excellent say 10 years ago but some cheaper NZ based options are available now.

Still, Smartshares have worked well for me in the past. And I should note that the total ASX200 and NZX50 ETFs are more competitively priced. It's US 500 is also not too bad for fees.

I’ve been using IBKR Pro for my USA stuff which is all passive. Set up is pretty easy, transferring of funds is easy, fx rates are extremely sharp, brokerage low, and can access lowest cost ETFs directly. Am looking around for an equal weighted SPY to compliment my other US etfs but for some reason the fees on those are unexpectedly high (but miles cheaper than smartshares). Havent used Hatch or other platforms yet

[Bobdn]

Equal weighted products are expensive for some reason. I wanted an equal weighted energy ETF but saw it had 0.4 per cent fees so stuck with VDE's 0.1 per cent fees.

Fees are important over the long term but I'm careful to remind myself that they're a minor element compared to my tendency to self sabotage by trying to time the market or by allowing what should be a small tilt (e.g. energy) to get out of hand.

I have Hatch, Smartshares, Simplicity and Kernel Wealth.

[JeffW]

I’ve been using IBKR Pro for my USA stuff which is all passive. Set up is pretty easy, transferring of funds is easy, fx rates are extremely sharp, brokerage low, and can access lowest cost ETFs directly. Am looking around for an equal weighted SPY to compliment my other US etfs but for some reason the fees on those are unexpectedly high (but miles cheaper than smartshares). Havent used Hatch or other platforms yet

Does the FDR Tax Treatment of investing direct offset not more than offset the NZX ETF fees and PIE tax treatment?

[Muse]

Does the FDR Tax Treatment of investing direct offset not more than offset the NZX ETF fees and PIE tax treatment?

I cant invest into PIEs. Or local ETFs. Well I can but its not tax efficient - on account of my multiple passports. Long story and not relevant to 99% of people here.

[ronaldson]

This competition is currently a health hazard. Only 45/158 are actually in positive territory at market close today.

I wonder what the average score is. I am 58th at minus 1.12% so that tells a tale!

FBU and RYM are only some contributors to to the malaise. There are many more. I hope folks real portfolios are in better shape.

[nztx]

This competition is currently a health hazard. Only 45/158 are actually in positive territory at market close today.

I wonder what the average score is. I am 58th at minus 1.12% so that tells a tale!

FBU and RYM are only some contributors to to the malaise. There are many more. I hope folks real portfolios are in better shape.



Hahaha .. enuff of that - I'm not complaining .. ATM has been really kind :)

Now without that - I would say NZX is a Health Hazzard .. ASX more volatile but
easier to dodge the multitude of dead, dying and crippled broken ^** outfits
and other casualties that hang out between the vast lines of NZX Funds etc :)

[Leemsip]

Yeah the NZX is a bloodbath. This is what happens heading into a recession. Anything selling to Kiwis gets pumped, unless its mandatory.
I hope my exporting Scales, TWR insurance and boring electricity can hold the line.

[ronaldson]

Interesting week for this competition by any measure, with some serious volatility!

Congratulations to "northcote" who has now finally relinquished last place to another unfortunate soul, and to "Tim Nice But Dim" who was the biggest mover, up a massive 95 places and coming from the clouds to 45th on the list.

Competitors to watch are "Felix" and "carrom74", both up 38 places to 5th and 7th respectively to lodge their challenge.

[winner69]

Comrade Ardern has 5 solid picks in FBU ARV RYM OCA and GNE

2nd last and -15%

Who would have thought that but no worries come year end could be near the top

[ynot]

Comrade Ardern has 5 solid picks in FBU ARV RYM OCA and GNE

2nd last and -15%

Who would have thought that but no worries come year end could be near the top

Few possess the ability of Ardern to drive an economy that far down the list.

[Bobdn]

I'm out of the top 10 now. I should never have included the NZX50...or maybe it will pick up steam. Who the hell knows.

[Bobdn]

Iceman number 3 with some solid ETF picks. I'm number four. Are US small caps starting to work?

Time for Journey's "Don't stop believing"

https://youtu.be/VcjzHMhBtf0?si=QT7cRuSXqU9mRvVE

[ronaldson]

I'm out of the top 10 now. I should never have included the NZX50...or maybe it will pick up steam. Who the hell knows.

Well, you are back in 6th place and shining brightly.

But just look at all those negative 1% or more and sailing on the Red Sea! Only two months into the competition and its already looking terminal for many.

The Government reset is just starting to bite, a fall in interest rates is further in the distance and it doesn't seem many have much free cash to invest so the restoration of halcyon days is not in prospect. Can anyone possibly catch What the stock?

[Rawz]

the market is rough right now. hard to hide from it. red day after red day it seems. lots of bargains out there. wish i had more cash to invest

[ynot]

the market is rough right now. hard to hide from it. red day after red day it seems. lots of bargains out there. wish i had more cash to invest
I'm thinking more downside to come yet.

[ronaldson]

A question or two about dividends.

I have KFL in my picks (don't really know why - I have regretted it), which has just gone ex a 2.58c pie dividend. Is credit given in the competition for that after the ex date (ie now, when the on-market share price falls to reflect that) or only on/after the payment date?

And for non pie dividends is it the gross or net dividend credited?

[xp04]

A question or two about dividends.

I have KFL in my picks (don't really know why - I have regretted it), which has just gone ex a 2.58c pie dividend. Is credit given in the competition for that after the ex date (ie now, when the on-market share price falls to reflect that) or only on/after the payment date?

And for non pie dividends is it the gross or net dividend credited?

1) Dividends added to total return on ex date and displayed in Dividends column on Stocks tab
2) Non pie dividends calculate as net dividends. You can see explanation on Info tab

[ronaldson]

Thanks xp04. That all seems the right approach.

[ronaldson]

Another week done and dusted and I'm told the NZX is up 1.5% over that period. Certainly 57/158 are now in positive territory. Big improver Paint it Black is up into 4th position (from 25th) to look dangerous on the leaderboard.

Commiserations to whirly, down 46 places, and congratulations to Rawz finally showing his class with the biggest rise, 35 places to rest in 26th.

What will next week bring?

[ronaldson]

Week done. NZX must have reverted to type (actually, down 1.3% for the week) as only 45/158 are in positive territory. More than 100 competitors are busy sailing on the dreaded Red Sea at 1% or more negative.

Big winner is Borneo climbing 40 places to reach the Top 10 in eighth. Big loser JUSTASKPERCY has dropped 45 places to be 148th and percy, who has exactly the same portfoio selection but with ARV in lieu of BRW, down 35 places to 134th.

Does anyone think the situation can be rescued? It looks unlikely any real improvement can manifest until mid/late May when the next round of results announcements are promulgated, and even that circumstance is probably fraught.

[Bobdn]

US small caps delivering Iceman and me to the promised land!

[ronaldson]

US small caps delivering Iceman and me to the promised land!

Correct, but What the stock still leads although Waiuta has narrowed the gap.

Big winner this week is silverblizzard.888 who rose 42 places, while nomis managed to slip 34 places down the list. Still the lower 100 are in red number territory, and only 44 are green with hamish powering into a Top 10 placing.

This is proving a difficult year, where only the fittest look likely to survive!

[ynot]

This is proving a difficult year, where only the fittest look likely to survive!

Lesson to be learned here.

[Bobdn]

How cool is this spreadsheet. I see each of the individual names now have their performance detailed?

Brilliant.

[Rawz]

How cool is this spreadsheet. I see each of the individual names now have their performance detailed?

Brilliant.

Yes xp04 has done an amazing job

[Baa_Baa]

How cool is this spreadsheet. I see each of the individual names now have their performance detailed?

Brilliant.

Agree, well done xp04, that's really interesting seeing which shares are pumping peoples position and which are dragging it down. Excellent improvement, thank you.

[Grimy]

Thank you xp04. That really is an informative addition to the table.

[ronaldson]

Agree, well done xp04, that's really interesting seeing which shares are pumping peoples position and which are dragging it down. Excellent improvement, thank you.

Brilliant. You may have this job/chore for life xp04!

[What the stock]

Again, nice spreadsheet work

Also c'mon NTL - Waiuta is making me nervous:)

[xp04]

I’m glad the changes have a positive response. Also want to say big thanks to those who making suggestions for improvements. So, if you have some ideas how to improve the spreadsheet please let me know and I’ll see what can be done. Thanks

[777]

xp04 as you update the competition throughout the day I can only assume you have things automated. Are you out of pocket with getting the information? I am sure contributions would be forthcoming.

[xp04]

xp04 as you update the competition throughout the day I can only assume you have things automated. Are you out of pocket with getting the information? I am sure contributions would be forthcoming.

Thanks for the suggestion :) But I'm using information that is publicly available and completely free. As for writing spreadsheets and scripts I just to do it for enjoyment and glad to be at your service :)

[Baa_Baa]

I think everyone who appreciates XP04's generous contribution, should click on the little 'star' at the bottom left of his post and give some positive, feedback and encouraging reputation. Just saying, it's easy to acknowledge what you really appreciate on ST, give reputation. Let's flood xp04 with our appreciation for running the ST stock picking contest, and doing so with such style and unassuming modesty.

[alokdhir]

I think everyone who appreciates XP04's generous contribution, should click on the little 'star' at the bottom left of his post and give some positive, feedback and encouraging reputation. Just saying, it's easy to acknowledge what you really appreciate on ST, give reputation. Let's flood xp04 with our appreciation for running the ST stock picking contest, and doing so with such style and unassuming modesty.

Fully agree with u and had done that several times ...now system doesn't let me give him any further positive rep ...lol

[ronaldson]

Q1 calender 2024 is effectively over. Slightly brighter this week too. Only 88 now sailing the red sea, and a few more fortunate souls have reached greener pastures, myself included.

Congratulations to Prestige_worldwide up 25 places and Bubble risen 24. Arow weakened by 30 places to take the wooden spoon this week, while Leemsip and Kennedy have reached/returned to the Top 10.

Happy Easter everyone, and safe travelling if you are on the move!

[Bobdn]

Good weekly summaries Ronaldson.

Prestige_worldwide - a privately held powerhouse. If it ever goes public, I'm there.

https://youtu.be/ciS914MaDl8?si=21EgjIMAukKfyInW

[Muse]

Good weekly summaries Ronaldson.

Prestige_worldwide - a privately held powerhouse. If it ever goes public, I'm there.

https://youtu.be/ciS914MaDl8?si=21EgjIMAukKfyInW

Simply the best

[777]

XP04 has done this now with extra columns in the spread sheet. Another nice improvement.

[Grimy]

Yes. The spread sheet gets more interesting almost every time I look at it (apart from my position on it....). Many thanks XP.

[ronaldson]

Another short week behind us, with the NZX down 0.77% and apparently unable to breakout on the upside.

Wooden spoon this week goes to Ruaone down 28 places, edging Paint it Black who fell 21. I acknowledge lurking somewhere near the median on the list is most dangerous, as the potential to rise or fall significantly is greater so as to get a dishonourable mention or cudos as the case may be.

Silverblizzard.888 gets another reference, this time rising 40 places although still -1.56%, with Percy and Ratkin tied for the silver medal, up 35 places.

On another note, does anyone think SUBURBAN ACCOUNTANT is Beagle in disguise? Would he possibly nominate 2CC, MFB, IKE, NTL and MPG as his portfolio of choice? I don't know.

Those who chose an RV listed entity (quite a few) will have been heartened by the ARV newsletter released today as shining a more positive light on the sector's future. But good luck to everyone as the market continues to surprise both on the upside and the downside, and does anyone really know what Nicola will do come budget day?

[Baa_Baa]

Another short week behind us, with the NZX down 0.77% and apparently unable to breakout on the upside.

Wooden spoon this week goes to Ruaone down 28 places, edging Paint it Black who fell 21. I acknowledge lurking somewhere near the median on the list is most dangerous, as the potential to rise or fall significantly is greater so as to get a dishonourable mention or cudos as the case may be.

Silverblizzard.888 gets another reference, this time rising 40 places although still -1.56%, with Percy and Ratkin tied for the silver medal, up 35 places.

On another note, does anyone think SUBURBAN ACCOUNTANT is Beagle in disguise? Would he possibly nominate 2CC, MFB, IKE, NTL and MPG as his portfolio of choice? I don't know.

Those who chose an RV listed entity (quite a few) will have been heartened by the ARV newsletter released today as shining a more positive light on the sector's future. But good luck to everyone as the market continues to surprise both on the upside and the downside, and does anyone really know what Nicola will do come budget day?

A sobering thought, that the best we can do so far on NZX is about 15% whereas the leader on ASX comp is currently almost 50% up. The time for NZX may be ahead of us, but so far it's massively behind almost every other international bourse.

[ronaldson]

HGH announcement today will create an interesting exercise for XP04, given it is a popular competition choice with, by my count, 30 entrants selecting it as a pick.

When the current trading halt is lifted the share price will be quoted "ex entitlement" but holders should be credited with another 1 share for every 6.85 held (fractional outcomes are rounded down) at a $1 subscription price, at least from the allotment date.

XP04 may be kind enough to tell us all how/when the competition spreadsheet is to be adjusted?

[winner69]

HGH announcement today will create an interesting exercise for XP04, given it is a popular competition choice with, by my count, 30 entrants selecting it as a pick.

When the current trading halt is lifted the share price will be quoted "ex entitlement" but holders should be credited with another 1 share for every 6.85 held (fractional outcomes are rounded down) at a $1 subscription price, at least from the allotment date.

XP04 may be kind enough to tell us all how/when the competition spreadsheet is to be adjusted?

I’d say let him assume those 30 won’t participate in the cap raise because they don’t have ‘spare cash’ to do so eh …..so number of shares don’t change.

[winner69]

Then again XP04 might think yes let them participate in the capital raise ……but they need to sell enough to cover the cost of the new ones as they don’t have any ‘spare cash’

So have 6756 shares now …..entitled to 986 more at $1 …..price close to closing date say $1.00 some 986 needs to be sold …..voila they will still have 6756 shares in competition.

But let’s say share price is $1.10 when they come to sell …only need to sell 896 shares to get the 986 new ones …só end with 90 extra shares.

All seems too hard for XP04 so I stick to saying let’s assume no participation in rights issue and they just keep the 6756 shares

[winner69]

But then again one could say they do have ‘spare cash’ …..the $251 in divies …but not enough to take up the full entitlement

[ronaldson]

There will be 30 entrants clamouring not to be "stiffed" here.

Perhaps if keeping the same number of shares/the original $10k investment intact is integral to maintaining balance in the competition then holders can be deemed to have notionally taken up their entitlement at $1 per share and then on-sold them, thereby receiving the difference as an extra (untaxed) "dividend"? Then the issue would become when they were deemed to have onsold, which might need to be some date after the allotment date on 26 April and when the dust has settled?

[Grimy]

Stop it you two, you're making my head hurt!
I will be taking up my entitlement and after reading the above I don't care how XP04 handles it-I'll be fine with whatever he decides to do.
But then I'm not going to be in the running for a top place finish, so that helps.......

[winner69]

There will be 30 entrants clamouring not to be "stiffed" here.

Perhaps if keeping the same number of shares/the original $10k investment intact is integral to maintaining balance in the competition then holders can be deemed to have notionally taken up their entitlement at $1 per share and then on-sold them, thereby receiving the difference as an extra (untaxed) "dividend"? Then the issue would become when they were deemed to have onsold, which might need to be some date after the allotment date on 26 April and when the dust has settled?

Seems only about 50% of shareholders participated in the last capital raise ……possibly only 50% this time

I still say assume contestants don’t participate this time ….nice and easy for XP04

And if share price ends year at 80 cents they be better off

[Snoopy]

I’d say let him assume those 30 won’t participate in the cap raise because they don’t have ‘spare cash’ to do so eh …..so number of shares don’t change.


No sure which pseudonym you have entered the competition under this year Winner. But it is a fair bet that I can now identify 30 that aren't you!

SNOOPY

[winner69]

No sure which pseudonym you have entered the competition under this year Winner. But it is a fair bet that I can now identify 30 that aren't you!

SNOOPY

Ok Snoops ….you tell XP04 how to handle this …so you benefit

[xp04]

HGH announcement today will create an interesting exercise for XP04, given it is a popular competition choice with, by my count, 30 entrants selecting it as a pick.

When the current trading halt is lifted the share price will be quoted "ex entitlement" but holders should be credited with another 1 share for every 6.85 held (fractional outcomes are rounded down) at a $1 subscription price, at least from the allotment date.

XP04 may be kind enough to tell us all how/when the competition spreadsheet is to be adjusted?


Then again XP04 might think yes let them participate in the capital raise ……but they need to sell enough to cover the cost of the new ones as they don’t have any ‘spare cash’

So have 6756 shares now …..entitled to 986 more at $1 …..price close to closing date say $1.00 some 986 needs to be sold …..voila they will still have 6756 shares in competition.

But let’s say share price is $1.10 when they come to sell …only need to sell 896 shares to get the 986 new ones …só end with 90 extra shares.

All seems too hard for XP04 so I stick to saying let’s assume no participation in rights issue and they just keep the 6756 shares

I surely may :) The rule is 3.2) Rights issue will be calculated as following: Number of rights will calculated according to declared ratio. Amount needed to buy new shares will be Number of rights multiplied by Exercise/Issue Price. To cover that amount Number of existing shares will be "sold". That number will be Amount needed divided by Share price at the end of the first trading day after the announcement. Difference between new Issued shares and shares "sold" to cover cost will be added to your holding.
It could be found on Info tab of the spreadsheet by the way. So, winner69 pretty much has it right. Spreadsheet will be updated after new shares allocated or soon after. Value of new shares will be displayed separately in Rights Adjustment column on Stocks tab.
Also, I think Truscreen and TradeWindow are doing (did) equity raising as well. They will be added too.
Thanks.

[ronaldson]

Another down week for Mr Market, with the index -0.67% so no surprise we still have a century of folk who are negative for the year to date. What the Stock has defied the odds and is a magnificent 24.64% positive, opening up a significant gap over Waiutu who not that long ago had narrowed the margin to second to less than 2% but is now adrift by just under 12% even though posting a highly creditable +12.96%.

Some recognisable names have entered the Top 10, namely alokdhir, rocketboy and Rawz, but we have said goodbye, maybe only temporarily, to Leemsip, hamish and gerald who have relinquished their places in the sun just now. THE STG, moose and jbmurc are lurking ominously, waiting for their chance at glory.

Wooden spooner this week is baldie, down 26 places, but matched in the other direction by BlackBull Research and Neophyte who moved up that number of places despite being -3.54% and -5.40% respectively at the weekend and lanquishing overall.

I don't think HGH has been adjusted yet (see Post #119 above) or TRU or TWL so some will be waiting on that. But it is a real contest this year and no doubt many twists and turns yet to be revealed. Keep safe over the holiday period and cross fingers that you will be higher in the standings soon!

[ronaldson]

New development - 7 of the current Top 10 have TWR as a pick.

Congratulations to Rawz who has the silver medal just now, albeit What the Stock appears invincible in the lead.

[ronaldson]

Perky, Southern Lad, Leemsip, Exec and Felix are new entrants/returnees to the Top 10 this week, and all courtesy of TWR as a pick. There may be even more upside after the actual half year results announcement on 28 May, fingers crossed.

But congratulations to all the above, who could now be moving to a beach to enjoy their place in the sun while it lasts!

[ronaldson]

Another week done and dusted but a poor one for the NZX, down 1.13%. Will halcyon days ever return?

Gold this time goes to Antipodean coming 42 places from the clouds to 17th. Tonyh gets a mention, up 36 places but still in big red numbers. Gotagiggle down 25 places along with Bubble down 24 are woodenspooners.

TWR did a lot of folk a significant favour. I hope pickers had it in their real portfolios too!

HGH and TWL have yet to reflect the adjustments consequent upon the corporate actions which have impacted them currently. I believe xp04 will have done that by the end of next week, albeit a short one again with the ANZAC Day holiday.

Sleep well everyone, as neither red or green numbers are actually real here!

[ronaldson]

The English Premier League race is in it's final weeks. Longer to go for the Sharetrader competition but the relegation zone is just as keenly contested. Northcote has resumed the red lantern position, hotly challenged by killdevilhills (who would choose that for a non de plume and why?) and bulltrap, with ralph still perilously in close contention.

At the other end What the Stock is the bookies favourite, with Waiuta still a clear second. Felix and gerald have a way to go but are now best of the rest in the Top 10 having put on a spurt.

Seeking redemption are Sylvester Cat, up 23 places but still minus 10%, and Marbo4 up 22 albeit minus 6%, while the wooden spoon this week goes to mwri down a whopping 28 places, maybe due to BPG, but not totally disgraced as he/she remains respectable in mid table.

Enjoy the weekend.

[Felix]

The only way I’m pushing higher than current 3rd place is if Comvita’s NBIO turns into an actual Scheme of Arrangement. Here’s hoping because it’s one of my two picks that I actually hold shares.