Bernhard Hickey

[troyvdh]

How many people are listening...right now.
A very wise man....avaliable on a podcast no doubt.
RNZ

[hogie]

How many people are listening...right now.
A very wise man....avaliable on a podcast no doubt.

Didn't listen to whatever content you are referring to but I beg to differ re: the wise man comment based on other content I've listened to / read ... each to their own I guess :)

[allfromacell]

He was on RNZ's 'The Panel' today if anyone wants to listen...

https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018928004

[Baa_Baa]

Didn't listen to whatever content you are referring to but I beg to differ re: the wise man comment based on other content I've listened to / read ... each to their own I guess :)

Same, agree .. too biased imo. Stopped following him on LinkedIn recently after only a short period of trying to give benefit of the doubt. He doesn't. Won't miss it I'm sure.

[troyvdh]

Thanks Allfromcell....Good luck Baa Baa...Do you follow C Lee...cheers.

[Habits]

Back in '09 he was way off the mark, recently (within the last year) BH was talking bout the cost of land and it was a good investment in the future, bad timing again. He's missed the boat there. I will look up and listen out of interest
Do you have the spelling correct. Bernhard ... a bit of a pretentious spelling IMO

[GlennS]

Spelling is Bernard, not Bernhard.

[Aaron]

Same, agree .. too biased imo.

What is he biased against Baa Baa???

I guess a left leaning bias as opposed to your right leaning one.

[moka]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/510435/explainer-what-s-going-on-with-interest-rates
Economist Bernard Hickey answered these questions and more on Wednesday's edition of The PaneL

Q: Is New Zealand unusually obsessed with interest rates?
A: Yeah. I believe the economy we have in New Zealand is more of a housing market with bits tacked on than a real economy, because for most New Zealand families and anyone who aspires to build a life here, they need to own a home, and to do that these days you need a mortgage if you've bought it recently…
They've learned to do this because of the way that our tax system works. And so that's why so many people are focusing all their energies on owning residential land in their own home and buying more.

[Muse]

Economist Bernard Hickey answered these questions and more on Wednesday's edition of

The RNZ calling BH an economist is akin to calling my sister who spends too much time on WebMD a Doctor.

[Panda-NZ-]

Bernard is relatively independent though and not employed by a bank or the property industry.

[850man]

I used to enjoy what he had to say but over the last coupe of years I feel he's had a big shift left in what he is outputting - encouraging wealth distribution and the like. I turned off.

[Panda-NZ-]

I used to enjoy what he had to say but over the last coupe of years I feel he's had a big shift left in what he is outputting - encouraging wealth distribution and the like. I turned off.

Maybe the facts lean left once you remove all the financial interests (please don't tax me).

He's hardly alone. Mr equab has also shifted left. We do have a tax system which is ancient (belongs in a museum) and long term super liabilities with no discernable way to fund them, yet.

[lissica]

The RNZ calling BH an economist is akin to calling my sister who spends too much time on WebMD a Doctor.

An 'economist' is not a protected title.

Then again, neither is 'doctor'.

[Rep]

I've met Bernard a few times and he's great to talk to - don't necessarily agree with point of view all the time, but I don't necessarily agree with my wife all of the time either but we agree on the big picture issues.
If he was described as an economic or financial commentator, I would think that would be a fairer description.

For reference, this is his bio on the Celebrity Speakers website:
https://www.celebrityspeakers.co.nz/speakers/bernard-hickey

[warthog]

I used to enjoy what he had to say but over the last coupe of years I feel he's had a big shift left in what he is outputting - encouraging wealth distribution and the like. I turned off.

Hickey goes where the wind blows.

Got the 2008 monetary crisis 100% wrong. Missed all the warning signs and went down with the boat abusing those in the life-rafts.

Then there was the time he sent some self-promotional email to thousands of his personal, business and political contacts. But used CC rather than BCC.

He's a financial markets palm-reader.

[Aaron]

I used to enjoy what he had to say but over the last coupe of years I feel he's had a big shift left in what he is outputting - encouraging wealth distribution and the like. I turned off.

Nothing worse than wealth distribution (i.e. tax) so many examples of countries being ruined with higher redistribution/tax rates and strong public institutions. You sure your not an economist for the NZ Initiative 850man

[bottomfeeder]

My barber is a better economist. He cuts the hair of lots of real economists in Wellington. As close to the brains as you can get.

[troyvdh]

Aaron are serious about wealth distribution.Tax pays for health and education yes ?.Have you visited Norway...Finland...Sweden....
Or are you suggesting the American health model is better.
What do you think of ACC.
Im really keen to hear your views.

Sorry ..you could have been taking the mickey.

[Aaron]

Aaron are serious about wealth distribution.Tax pays for health and education yes ?.Have you visited Norway...Finland...Sweden....
Or are you suggesting the American health model is better.
What do you think of ACC.
Im really keen to hear your views.

Sorry ..you could have been taking the mickey.

Shouldn't this thread be on an Off-Market Forum?

Correct taking the Mickey.

I like Bernard Hickey and a lot of what he writes seems sensible to me, but I have a left leaning bias that Baa Baa does not share.

I get sick of the "low tax, small govt" mantra spewed out by some people despite the reality across the globe being the complete opposite. You compare the Scandanavian countries to America, try comparing developed countries to the third world.

I personally hate paying taxes it is one of my biggest expenses but I can see the need for it. Maybe if I earned more I might understand better, although Stephen Tindall and some other wealthy people appear to have not got David Seymour's memo on how to make a great country by asking to be taxed more.

RE ACC I like it as it has allowed Rugby to flourish over the years and put the cost on everyone, although the professional era has seen the slow death of the game. Rugby has gone from being a religion for me to a source of entertainment that I am not sure I want to pay for anymore.

ACC seems better than taking someone to court every time there is an accident.

[troyvdh]

Hold on 850man ...He may have have been taking the mickey as well...cheers.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Maybe the facts lean left once you remove all the financial interests (please don't tax me).

He's hardly alone. Mr equab has also shifted left. We do have a tax system which is ancient (belongs in a museum) and long term super liabilities with no discernable way to fund them, yet.

I dont even think it is a left vs right situation he is highlighting. NZ tax system is fairly screwed up. It is uniquely perverse in its structural design which vastly favours property investment over any other form of investment, and New Zealand is much the worse for it. On top of that the underinvestment in infrastructure, when NZ has ample ability to service much higher debt, hurts everyone, especially private enterprise.

You would have to be pretty deep into property if you think introducing capital gains taxes and/or a land tax, while also lowering income tax rates isn’t potentially a better structure for our tax system. Would encourage far more investment in business and increasing productivity.

[troyvdh]

Dear Laser I for one would apply for the job of campaign manager for you to be NZ PM.
I whole heartly agree with you.
Thankyou.
NZ inc is so besotted with house price appreciation its shameful.

[warthog]

Dear Laser I for one would apply for the job of campaign manager for you to be NZ PM.
I whole heartly agree with you.
Thankyou.
NZ inc is so besotted with house price appreciation its shameful.

Why do you think NZ is so besotted with house price appreciation? Do house prices go up or does the NZ$ go down, or both? And why?

[warthog]

Shouldn't this thread be on an Off-Market Forum?
I get sick of the "low tax, small govt" mantra spewed out by some people despite the reality across the globe being the complete opposite. You compare the Scandanavian countries to America, try comparing developed countries to the third world.

You really should visit Scandinavia for a while, or maybe even live there for a bit to fully appreciate how those societies work. Their public sector is much larger than it appears once you factor in indirect public sector activity. Nepotism, incompetence, groupthink, petty squabbles and attitudes. It's all alive and well there.

The hog isn't a National or ACT voter by the way. :)

[nztx]

My barber is a better economist. He cuts the hair of lots of real economists in Wellington. As close to the brains as you can get.


Better keep him away from the Reserve Bank boys & girls then .. all the ups & downs fired at the RB might leave them with something closer to a fine trim than they could ever had imagined .. possibly a few things missing or a whole side taken off if an unexpected tidbit of economic stuff lands while the trimming operation is in progress ;)

[nztx]

You really should visit Scandinavia for a while, or maybe even live there for a bit to fully appreciate how those societies work. Their public sector is much larger than it appears once you factor in indirect public sector activity. Nepotism, incompetence, groupthink, petty squabbles and attitudes. It's all alive and well there.

The hog isn't a National or ACT voter by the way. :)



The Land of 70% Taxes & Cradle to Grave deal from Nanny State ? ;)

Hope you show them what happens when the Kiwi experiment under Ardern / Hipkins for a go at the same
comes badly off the rails and hits the skids at speed :)

It's a wonder any Private Enterprise up there hasn't already been made extinct or run away to kinder lands
away from the treacherous cold and huge tax impost freezing everything in sight ;)

[troyvdh]

nztx...its actually closer to 90 %.
I think you are nuts and havent travelled much
Im signing off on this post.

[nztx]

nztx...its actually closer to 90 %.
I think you are nuts and havent travelled much
Im signing off on this post.


Cripes 90% .. you'd have to be nuts to consider going there :)

[Aaron]

You really should visit Scandinavia for a while, or maybe even live there for a bit to fully appreciate how those societies work. Their public sector is much larger than it appears once you factor in indirect public sector activity. Nepotism, incompetence, groupthink, petty squabbles and attitudes. It's all alive and well there.

The hog isn't a National or ACT voter by the way. :)

And what low tax, small govt nations should I visit after for a comparison???

[Bjauck]

You really should visit Scandinavia for a while, or maybe even live there for a bit to fully appreciate how those societies work. Their public sector is much larger than it appears once you factor in indirect public sector activity. Nepotism, incompetence, groupthink, petty squabbles and attitudes. It's all alive and well there.

The hog isn't a National or ACT voter by the way. :) Yet Scandinavia and NZ always score well from various corruption surveys. The bigger English countries with slightly smaller (than Scandinavia) public sectors such as the UK and USA don’t score as well. Have you got any studies that corroborate your perceptions?

NZ has a great tax system, and other policies, for developing a low-skill low-productivity agrarian feudal (or ante-bellum Southern-style) economy with a small share market.

https://www.worldeconomics.com/National-Statistics/Corruption-Levels/Sweden.aspx

[Panda-NZ-]

NZ has a great tax system, and other policies, for developing a low-skill low-productivity agrarian feudal (or ante-bellum Southern-style) economy with a small share market.

https://www.worldeconomics.com/National-Statistics/Corruption-Levels/Sweden.aspx

You risk your knighthood saying that.

Mind you they only seem to go to politicians these days (who have all let us down).

[Ricky-bobby]

I don’t see any benefit in paying higher taxes. Why would I give more of my hard earned money to public service who even struggle to do up their shoes laces? If the money was spent wisely and actually improved peoples lives then I would be open to it. I challenge people to name one thing (public sector) that has got better over the last 10 years?

[Recaster]

The have got better at placing more orange cones on every main road.

[Lego_Man]

If i'm to allocate money to a fund manager, they need to have a demonstrable track record of astute capital deployment. I look at government the same way.

Looking at the last Labour government and regardless of ideological stripe, there's no doubt they were simply the worst spenders of public money in the history of NZ. They squandered a unique historical moment (zero interest rates and prior to that, good surpluses) and an absolute majority in their second term, spending was either ephemeral or straight out wasteful, and we have zero long term infrastructure progress to show for it. They were a talentless bunch of student politicians playing at government. "Old school socialists" in the manner of Clark, Cullen etc would have accomplished much more.

[Valuegrowth]

I have read some of his good articles in the past.

AFAIK the financial system has not fixed once and for all. As a result of it we could see different types of financial crisis, housing market crisis and other digital and physical asset crisis in the future too. Easy money led to one of the longest uptrends in asset prices over the last 5 to 10 years. On top of that the world is sitting on an over 300- trillion-dollar debt bomb.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/01/modernize-global-financial-system/

Is it time to modernize global financial system?

[Aaron]

I don’t see any benefit in paying higher taxes. Why would I give more of my hard earned money to public service who even struggle to do up their shoes laces? If the money was spent wisely and actually improved peoples lives then I would be open to it. I challenge people to name one thing (public sector) that has got better over the last 10 years?

Immigration NZ is really pumping.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I don’t see any benefit in paying higher taxes. Why would I give more of my hard earned money to public service who even struggle to do up their shoes laces? If the money was spent wisely and actually improved peoples lives then I would be open to it. I challenge people to name one thing (public sector) that has got better over the last 10 years?

The intention is not to redesign the tax system to pay higher taxes, it is to redesign the tax system to collect the same amount of tax, but in a way that encourages capital to be directed towards creating/growing productive businesses rather than towards property as it is currently.

Income taxes, corporate taxes would be lower, R&D credits & depreciation/amortization on investment in productive assets more beneficial. Those lower taxes would be paid for by increased taxation on property/capital gains.

[warthog]

Yet Scandinavia and NZ always score well from various corruption surveys. The bigger English countries with slightly smaller (than Scandinavia) public sectors such as the UK and USA don’t score as well. Have you got any studies that corroborate your perceptions?]

To be honest, the hog hasn't looked, but has lived in Scandinavia.

[quote]https://www.worldeconomics.com/National-Statistics/Corruption-Levels/Sweden.aspx

Corruption is everywhere. It's more a matter of how hidden it is, how widespread, and the scale.

[Count von Count]

I don’t see any benefit in paying higher taxes. Why would I give more of my hard earned money to public service who even struggle to do up their shoes laces? If the money was spent wisely and actually improved peoples lives then I would be open to it. I challenge people to name one thing (public sector) that has got better over the last 10 years?

I am going to disagree with you about the public service. I / the family have had some contacts with the health sector over the last 15 years, and they have been uniformly excellent - especially the hospital-based services. Good healthcare does not make newspaper headlines. My kids are getting excellent educations in the public sector - one of them has learning needs, and her last two schools have been responsive, creative and encouraging. She is doing well, and remains really engaged in her learning. When something happened a while ago, the Police were amazing, and this helped with insurance claims and so forth.

The problem with the public sector is often not a lack of competence, but a lack of investment. Talking to the health staff that have been managing us at Starship, they have the same number of positions that they had 20 years ago, but the population they are dealing with is close to 50% bigger. Their IT is antiquated - they were still arm-wrestling with Windows 7. Our local Intermediate school finally got a new build completed for some new classrooms - the MoE had a leaky building nightmare they had to deal with at other schools - but their roll has increased by 40% in 12 years, with the same number of funded teaching positions.

The issue is that when our economy was smashing it, it was mostly based around immigration and protein production. We put those savings into largely meaningless tax cuts, incentivised property investment and thought that we could continue to grow the population (and reap the benefits in terms of the labour force and economic gain) without bothering to look at what sorts of resources those people might need, and plan ahead accordingly.

So my experience is that the public sector is pretty good. My hypothesis is that they are strained due to successive governments either kicking the can down the road, or not having the skills and awareness to properly plan for the future. My belief is that the public sector isn't like a tap - you can't turn it on and off depending on what the government of the day does. It needs steady investment to properly thrive.

[Ricky-bobby]

I am going to disagree with you about the public service. I / the family have had some contacts with the health sector over the last 15 years, and they have been uniformly excellent - especially the hospital-based services. Good healthcare does not make newspaper headlines. My kids are getting excellent educations in the public sector - one of them has learning needs, and her last two schools have been responsive, creative and encouraging. She is doing well, and remains really engaged in her learning. When something happened a while ago, the Police were amazing, and this helped with insurance claims and so forth.

The problem with the public sector is often not a lack of competence, but a lack of investment. Talking to the health staff that have been managing us at Starship, they have the same number of positions that they had 20 years ago, but the population they are dealing with is close to 50% bigger. Their IT is antiquated - they were still arm-wrestling with Windows 7. Our local Intermediate school finally got a new build completed for some new classrooms - the MoE had a leaky building nightmare they had to deal with at other schools - but their roll has increased by 40% in 12 years, with the same number of funded teaching positions.

The issue is that when our economy was smashing it, it was mostly based around immigration and protein production. We put those savings into largely meaningless tax cuts, incentivised property investment and thought that we could continue to grow the population (and reap the benefits in terms of the labour force and economic gain) without bothering to look at what sorts of resources those people might need, and plan ahead accordingly.

So my experience is that the public sector is pretty good. My hypothesis is that they are strained due to successive governments either kicking the can down the road, or not having the skills and awareness to properly plan for the future. My belief is that the public sector isn't like a tap - you can't turn it on and off depending on what the government of the day does. It needs steady investment to properly thrive.

Someone who has paid taxes all their life and then have to wait 2 years for a hip replacement isn’t right. Also the amalgamation of the DHPs has been a disaster… they didn’t even allocate appropriate DALs, so nothing has been renewed/replaced etc. Talk to anyone involved. I live in a small town and our hospital is at braking point. All the nurses are retiring or going to AUS and the people left are so over worked, just not right. There might be underspend, but there are good times and bad and like everyone else they need to be adaptable and move with this. Talk to anyone re Capex at the moment, it’s the first thing to go when managing spend.

If they spent money on getting the job done instead of consulting a 1000 people and then using consultants with no skin in the game, we would be in so much better shape. The waste of tax payers money with nothing to show for it is disgusting and has been so frustrating to witness .

Re changing the tax system to move away from property, am open to. But we have got to get the fundamentals of spend right first. No point changing something if at the end of the day is just going to get spent poorly again. I love the sound of what the do in Singapore with the incentives for public servants, I would start with that first!

[Valuegrowth]

I am going to disagree with you about the public service. I / the family have had some contacts with the health sector over the last 15 years, and they have been uniformly excellent - especially the hospital-based services. Good healthcare does not make newspaper headlines. My kids are getting excellent educations in the public sector - one of them has learning needs, and her last two schools have been responsive, creative and encouraging. She is doing well, and remains really engaged in her learning. When something happened a while ago, the Police were amazing, and this helped with insurance claims and so forth.

The problem with the public sector is often not a lack of competence, but a lack of investment. Talking to the health staff that have been managing us at Starship, they have the same number of positions that they had 20 years ago, but the population they are dealing with is close to 50% bigger. Their IT is antiquated - they were still arm-wrestling with Windows 7. Our local Intermediate school finally got a new build completed for some new classrooms - the MoE had a leaky building nightmare they had to deal with at other schools - but their roll has increased by 40% in 12 years, with the same number of funded teaching positions.

The issue is that when our economy was smashing it, it was mostly based around immigration and protein production. We put those savings into largely meaningless tax cuts, incentivised property investment and thought that we could continue to grow the population (and reap the benefits in terms of the labour force and economic gain) without bothering to look at what sorts of resources those people might need, and plan ahead accordingly.

So my experience is that the public sector is pretty good. My hypothesis is that they are strained due to successive governments either kicking the can down the road, or not having the skills and awareness to properly plan for the future. My belief is that the public sector isn't like a tap - you can't turn it on and off depending on what the government of the day does. It needs steady investment to properly thrive.
That’s exactly how I feel. I have seen there are efficient, productive, and hard-working people in both private sector and public sector. Similarly, we find inefficient people in both sectors almost all over the world. I have good experience in myself. Not all public sector or private sector organizations can perform similar manner due to different reasons. Currently many companies are making losses, and some are running their businesses thanks to borrowings. Good companies have financial discipline. Even under private sector many companies ended up with bankruptcy. They didn’t have the better risk management system to face different types of crises. They were overleveraged. Finally, taxpayers had to bailout them. Those mony could have used for other areas like educatioin,healthcare and infrastructure.

[troyvdh]

Aaron is that a good thing.
Re NZ immigration really pumping.

You are correct...my humble sincere apologies.

The whole issue is quite bewildering...shocking.

I understand the "we" move on average about every 7 years re homes.
Residential properties are viewed as ...well play things ...a way to make money.
I have lived in the same house for over 3 decades.

And lets not forget the approx 40 billion dollars re leaky homes !.

[Aaron]

Aaron is that a good thing.
Re NZ immigration really pumping.

You obviously do not read my posts on other threads. Read Count Von Counts post, look at the housing shortage, congested roadways, hospitals, schools etc etc. Uncontrolled immigration is a disaster in my opinion, it is not even the doctors and nurses that we need coming in, anyone who can fog a glass is required apparently. National, Labour and now National again have some idea that more people, consuming more stuff, makes for a better society. I personally doubt it unless you are a townie and shopping and eating out is what you do on the weekends.

I read that Chris Bishop wants to double the population by 2060. Based on the young people leaving to go overseas or choosing a house over a family that is at least 125,000 immigrants a year for the next 36 years. Its nuts.

If it were up to me I would close the door and deal with the people we have. One of the best things about NZ is the lack of people. I guess it is cheaper to import people than to invest in our own younger generation. Immigration also pushes down wages while pushing up rents so it is a boon for the asset owners of NZ.

National is looking to cut spending while continuing to keep the immigration spigot open. Not sure how that pans out but probably not good for the average Kiwi.

[Valuegrowth]

Housing has become a commodity. Migrants are also partly responsible for the housing bubble worldwide. We are not far away for one of the biggest drops in housing prices. This time is no different.

Some of the facts in the following link are relevant to today as well.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/the-film-push-shows-how-housing-has-become-a-commodity-for-the-benefit-of-the/article_145d8c82-b0f0-51cc-8783-428f8e0873af.html

[troyvdh]

Yes...It will be tragic.