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robbo
21-10-2004, 01:47 PM
Bluescope-Steel BSL

IF this Bluescope Stell goes well, then it is all Credit to SOULMAN !!

On the other hand, if BSL bombs, then I deny all knowledge of this stock...me, Madgeie and Maxie never heard of it maaaate !!:);):)

Seriously for a minute though, BSL might have been oversold these lst 48 Hours, and it is a qstion of whether it has finished its Pull-Back and Profit taking on the back of (a) Some Union B/S about Exec Remuneration, The China Syndrome,and the commodity, especially Metals correction the other day (probaly IMO...from the Hedgie Fund operators on Wall street--being over defensive and having a bit of a hissy fit !!) :)[8D]

So, all said, opportunity on stocks like Tectronic and Blue -Scope Steel--if we buy 'em right....again ONLY and strictly NOT advice, but expression of personal opinion.

Do have a peek at Soulman's excellent two previous ; on the Tectronic --TTR--thread on this Share-Trader/// SITE, on the Tectronic-TTR-- thread, from the past 48 hours or so, as they are very informative--IMO...and worthhile..IMO...regardin[u]g Blue-Scope Steel--BSL</u>

As, I was saying to one of my mates yesterday re. Bluescope-BSL: Quite a lowish Price Earnings--approx #10, revenue growth nearly 9 % Increase on Last Year, adjusted profit approx #34% Increase,(meaning a real Pre-Tax Profit margin on massive Revenue Turnoover of: $5.7 Billion dollars (WOW !!) and therefore a north of 13 % profit of $800 Million Dollars Pre-Tax Profits.....But the Crucher was the earnings: C.p.s. 77+ cents !!.."77 cents per share earnings !!! My mate simply remarked: "what, "77 c.p.s.....??!! Enough said !"[:p]:)[:p]

Anyway, I'm certainly looking at taking a possie on BSL....


Regards,

Robbo.:)
Disclaimer: The above comments are simply only personal whimsical reflections, are NOT to be taken as financal advice, and... are said without any warranty to these comments' veracity reliability or authenticity. Please; Do your own research and seek independent fiancial dvice always.The above comments are also expressed on a totally "without prejudice" basis.
Regards, Robbo.:)

tommy
21-10-2004, 08:28 PM
Hi Robbo,

Good job opening this new thread:)

Do you think the market has hit the bottom with BSL? I like BSL too, but would rather see the stock plummet more so I can buy it dirt cheap... I'm stingy when it comes to investing my hard-earned dough, it hurts me more when I end up purchasing stocks at a high price rather than selling them at a modest profit!

I suppose it's because foregone unrealized profits are easier to accept than real cash spent on unnecessarily expensive stocks! (or perhaps it's just me[?])

Anyway, I will be focusing on BSL too tomorrow and next week for any shift in trends.

robbo
21-10-2004, 11:00 PM
Hi Tommy,

Don't know if I can help, but I would love to...if poss re the implied querry in your post....

What's your Share Investor Profile??

If you don't feel like you are presently "hitting them in the middle" with say ##80%++ certainty, might be worth Trading with "monopoly money" for three months or so, and keep copious detailed notes of the Results...and writing down why you feel you got it wrong/right/half right etc etc...your rationale for your Investment etc..

Personallly this is what I did for 18 months...until I had worked out////and written out Mantras of Rules of: "What worked/works for me...."

And of course what works for me, is different to Fred, Mary Bill or Joe Bloe........

To touch on just Some of my Madgey Maxims; they are:

(1) Only buy business enterprises you relate to, you intuitively lkike and think there will be overwhelming BIG DEMAND for at a premium price

(2) Margin of Safety---Margin of Safety---Margin of Safety...and work out what that means for YOU and BURN it Deep into your soul and your psyche!!

(3) Durable Competitive Advantage--I repeat this 10 times a day...

Get a Theasaurus and meditate and think about the meaning of the copncept: Durable--Long Lasting//permanence

(4) The concept of Consumer Franchise in the psychology: I have big Logo Posters plastered around my study of Super Brands that are trusted in Australia;

so what are some of these posters/stickers....

Lets ee, there is: Oprah, Qantas, BMS--Ultimate Driving Machine, Australia Post, 3M, Nestle, TDK, Brother, Panasonic, ...:Cadbury, Coca Cola, Woolworths, Flight Centre, Vegemite, Sunbeam, Victa Lawn Mowers, Dulux,Donut Kink, Wendys, Lifesavers,Gatorade,StGeorge,Panadol, Herron,Valvoline, Dispirin, Avon, Maggi, KFC, Pizza Hut, Avis, Mortein, Volvo, BMW, 20th Century Fox, Bart Simpson--Eat My Shorts..., Nescafe, Colorado, Fosters, AMP, Yates, The Salvation Army, Australian Red Cross, American Express, Toyota, Lexus, Noicorette, Macdonalds, Subway, Just Jeans, The Reject Shop, Kraft, Arnotts, Optus--"Yes"....Sony, LJ Hooker....etc etc


and I ask...will/can this business ever have such Trusted Brand/Recognition Premium Pricing power as brands such as these ??? Why ?? Really...Prove it????

anyway...just some thoughts,
Robbo.



quote:Originally posted by tommy

Hi Robbo,

Good job opening this new thread:)

Do you think the market has hit the bottom with BSL? I like BSL too, but would rather see the stock plummet more so I can buy it dirt cheap... I'm stingy when it comes to investing my hard-earned dough, it hurts me more when I end up purchasing stocks at a high price rather than selling them at a modest profit!

I suppose it's because foregone unrealized profits are easier to accept than real cash spent on unnecessarily expensive stocks! (or perhaps it's just me[?])

Anyway, I will be focusing on BSL too tomorrow and next week for any shift in trends.

soulman
22-10-2004, 04:39 AM
Hi Robbo

Bluey has taken a hit before the China GDP comes out. If it's bad, then it might slide further. Numbers will be good this FY, but it is next year 2006 that have analyst doubtful of further growth. As a cyclical stock the stock must be watch with careful intention because after a run so hard since the profit upgrade in May, it may well be prudent to wait and see as in Tommy's case.

tommy
22-10-2004, 06:27 AM
Hi Robbo,

Thanks always for your extensive reply, how on earth do you find the time to post so many messages here?! I am always pleasantly surprised[:0]

I agree with most of the approaches you have mentioned (very useful!) but the problem is that they are harder to practice than preach!! I suppose those crownies help you meditate like a buddhist monk[?]
Especially because Ifm only a hobby investor, the way in which the market reacts totally confuses me sometimes...

So far, the stocks I have actually purchased has had a fairly good hit rate over several months, although there are some segments which I clearly should have steered clear due to my lack of knowledge in the share market for being a newbie. But what I find more difficult is the timing of selling than buying! As a rule, I aim at cashing in as soon as I can make a gain of 30% by selling the share unless I have absolute confidence that it will rise further... just because I can't discipline myself otherwise and will just end up getting greedy and actually do something stupid and make a loss in the end!

I'll continue researching to find more value, including some stocks you mentioned:)

Halebop
22-10-2004, 08:19 AM
quote:Originally posted by davidrob

...Sunbeam, Victa Lawn Mowers, Dulux, Donut Kink, Wendys, Lifesavers, Gatorade, StGeorge, Panadol...

Goodness me! I hadn't realised gay porn had reached such lofty heights in brand awareness. [:o)]

robbo
22-10-2004, 09:22 AM
Yeah,
Must admit to Maxie and me having a "bit on the side"... Maxie is a real horny Tiger !!

Did I also tell you that Max came home....To The Crownie Hotel....with:
Two Bloody Pet Parrots !!
Actually, one Is a Galah, reckons he's from South Australia--named Gavin, and the other is a White Aussie Cockatoo, from Cootamundra--named Chris..

They are both males birds, and rumour here at the Crownie Pub, is that both birds are a bit Gay..[:0][:0][V][V]:) Yep, Haleop... you heard this gos. here at Sharetrader first and exclusively...Gav and Chris are probably Gay !!

So the guys & gals here at the Crownie Hotel will be surely taking the piss out of both lover boy Maxie.....and Gav and Chris...that Is a Predicion I can Be Sure Of!! :););):);)

Regards,

Robbo...[:X]:)



quote:Originally posted by Halebop


quote:Originally posted by davidrob

...Sunbeam, Victa Lawn Mowers, Dulux, Donut Kink, Wendys, Lifesavers, Gatorade, StGeorge, Panadol...

Goodness me! I hadn't realised gay porn had reached such lofty heights in brand awareness. [:o)]

Papillon
10-03-2005, 11:39 AM
BSL shares have falllen from $10.26 to $9.15. I suppose they have gone XD (div 40c = SP approx 50c, perhaps the price was inflated by takeover speculation. The share buy-back makes no sense to me. I am accumulating BSL because anyone in the steel industry knows that BSL is effectively a monopoly and can pass all cost increases down to customers.
Any comments?

soulman
10-03-2005, 03:24 PM
Yes.....Bluey is as volatile as ever. I trade on them a couple of weeks ago and got burned. I got caught up in the 57 cents hiding and more.

Now they got issues with the increased in iron ore and coking coal prices. However, I thought that was already factored in the SP. If hot rolled coil kept rising to pass on these increased input prices, then BSL should achieved what Kirby Adams, the CEO said of the second half be about the same as the first half or even top the $1 bil NPAT mark.
Other issues of increased freight charges due to the higher oil prices and industrial union dispute all have an effect on BSL.

I just hope the SP can go back to double figure again.

nelehdine
18-04-2005, 03:11 PM
Jumped into BLS today at 793 ... a stock not for the faint-hearted but a great long term story if you can ride out the inevitable bumps and bruises on the way. Certainly alot cheaper than a few months ago !! ... but alot dearer than a few years ago !!!!

SEC
28-04-2005, 07:23 PM
If the 750 support line holds do I dare say BSL is a 'steal' at these prices?

nelehdine
28-04-2005, 07:48 PM
Hope so SEC ... bgt some more today at 756 ...

robbo
03-05-2005, 10:17 AM
Blue Scope Steel (BSL)

Think I like where this one is heading at present...

Any further thoughts // ideas on BSL gals and guys...??

Regards,

Robbo :)

robbo
03-05-2005, 06:28 PM
Thanks Major,

Have decided not to jump into BSL straight away as a result of your comments and will just keep BSL on my Watchlist for not

Again many many sincere thanks major,

Kind regards,

Robbo :):)

nelehdine
04-05-2005, 07:55 AM
Big fall yesterday ... I guess you use a lot of steel when building large apartment blocks !! I have recently bgt a few BSL ( at 793 and 756 ) and see it as an excellent long term buy at these levels. A great dividend yield and the next decade should be very exciting with the exposure the company has to SE Asia and China. THere will be some major speed wobbles over the way ... the recent fall from over $10 shows the volatility of this stock, but these should provide excellent buying opps as long as you are looking to hold for the long term. I think there will be easier stocks to trade short term but agree with most the brokers research I have read that this is a "core" portfolio holding.

nelehdine
05-05-2005, 12:06 PM
Up a whopping 34c ( 4.5% ) to 782 so far today ... if this gain can be maintained until the close I imagine the chartists would say a fresh buy signal has been triggered !!

Here's hoping the Aussie market kicks on today , unlike recently !!

robbo
05-05-2005, 02:00 PM
Bluescope Steel BSL

I'll admit I this morn. loaded up on The Open with BSL for the Goal of Max 11% Short Profit with about $ 50 K...invested

so we'll see...

Did the same on the announcement today with Mount Gibson..MGX which does look good also...but am short on both tof these Stocks and ready to Pull the trigger on any major re-tracement:)

Kind Regards and thanks for everyones good contributions...


Robbo :)

nelehdine
05-05-2005, 04:33 PM
Forcast PE at 784 ... 5.26 !!!
Forcast Yield at 784 ... 6.38% ... plenty of reasons to buy at these levels !!

robbo
05-05-2005, 06:53 PM
BlueScope Steel BSL

Best ASX 200 performer today I think....

Larger Share Back announced by BSL; mgt thus improving the equity per share, and demonstrating Cash Flow and Healthy of Balance Sheet; is what I think Market obviously appreciates; and thus is also doing it some good...

Together with a view re. Steel out of China...vis a vis see also One Steel OST...

Regards,

Robbo
:)

nelehdine
09-05-2005, 04:11 PM
Nice move today +19 to 798. Stock has traded well since management initiated a fresh bout of on-market buy-backs with a good solid move from the $7.50 area. Plenty of EPS enhancement available at these prices, cash very well spent IMHO ... a nice WIN-WIN for holders.

Dough Boy
09-05-2005, 04:17 PM
DaveRob,

I have held BSL since August 03 and generally agree with the comments. As to the low PE this is simply a reflection of the discount applied to steel companies worldwide. Some companies are even more lowly priced that BSL (for good reasons!). However what separates BSL from the chaff is the coated steel products and building products divisions. At the moment the market does not seem to regonize the intellectural property of thier roofing products and the value of its brand. In a former life I was an engineer and Bluescope steel porducts were always at the top of the list for specification because of their reputation.

Also Bluescope has proven itself to be intelligent buyer of hard assets (unwanted/ unprofitable steel mills and such like) for knock prices then converting them to produce profitable high value added products.

Meanwhile I accummulate and sit and wait for the brains trust of the investment community to annouse that BSL is more than just a steel company (already some brokers are now saying this!) Just wait for the Mr Market to rerate this share and value it as a international industral of which a PE of 12 to 15 would be more realistic, doubling it current share price!

See at the auction to sell down when it's P.E. &gt; 15.

SEC
09-05-2005, 05:19 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

If the 750 support line holds do I dare say BSL is a 'steal' at these prices?


Looks like 750 did provide good support. Nice buying at those prices.

Nelehdine, did you keep your EXL? Word was that a hedge fund decided to quickly liquidate last week.

SEC

robbo
09-05-2005, 10:43 PM
quote:Originally posted by Dough Boy

DaveRob,

I have held BSL since August 03 and generally agree with the comments. As to the low PE this is simply a reflection of the discount applied to steel companies worldwide. Some companies are even more lowly priced that BSL (for good reasons!). However what separates BSL from the chaff is the coated steel products and building products divisions. At the moment the market does not seem to regonize the intellectural property of thier roofing products and the value of its brand. In a former life I was an engineer and Bluescope steel porducts were always at the top of the list for specification because of their reputation.

Also Bluescope has proven itself to be intelligent buyer of hard assets (unwanted/ unprofitable steel mills and such like) for knock prices then converting them to produce profitable high value added products.

Meanwhile I accummulate and sit and wait for the brains trust of the investment community to annouse that BSL is more than just a steel company (already some brokers are now saying this!) Just wait for the Mr Market to rerate this share and value it as a international industral of which a PE of 12 to 15 would be more realistic, doubling it current share price!

See at the auction to sell down when it's P.E. &gt; 15.

Great Insights and excellent commens there Doughboy...

Do Like your analysis on BSL, and benefited from same...

So many thanks indeed Dough Boy.....

especially vis a vis your insightls and comments re: the propsective re rating on the Industry Sector change which could cause a Insto re-rating of the benchmark PE which would re rate the BSL S/Price as you explain so lucidly !!

If this is on the cards ....... hadn't thought of that ...... very helpful ideas here indeed Dough Boy !! -- Am also still "on" Bluescope !!

Regards,

Robbo :)

nelehdine
10-05-2005, 12:44 PM
Keeping the EXL locked away this time SEC ... when the dust settles on this sell-off I will look to add a few more, probably wait till the shares have stayed above $7.00 for a week or so ... rather add in a definetive uptrend than trying to be flash and pick another low point if the shares get hit by another bout of turbulence.

Very pleased with BSL purchase, again will add above $8.50

Rgds

SEC
10-05-2005, 06:39 PM
Looks like you picked the wrong coal stock CEY+10% since last week! EXL still showing volatility, the seller's got itchy trigger fingers. Coal stocks look great for short term trades if you can be bothered to keep your eyes glued to the screen.

SEC

nelehdine
24-05-2005, 02:45 PM
+26c at 826

Shares now 10% above recent lows, seems we might have seen the best buying opp a few weeks ago. Still great long term value with a P/E and div yield still way below and above respectively the market averages. The mgmt buy-back was well timed with lots of shares bought back and cancelled below $8 ... excellent news for long term holders.

Disc: HOld BSL

robbo
24-05-2005, 03:41 PM
quote:Originally posted by davidrob

Bluescope Steel BSL

I'll admit I this morn. loaded up on The Open with BSL for the Goal of Max 11% Short Profit with about $ 50 K...invested

so we'll see...

Did the same on the announcement today with Mount Gibson..MGX which does look good also...but am short on both tof these Stocks and ready to Pull the trigger on any major re-tracement:)

Kind Regards and thanks for everyones good contributions...


Robbo :)


Bluescope Steel (BSL)

Took my 11% Gains today, on $53 K INVESTED , so will be NOW be able to Put Profits to good use, and buy another crate of CROWNIES !! [:p][:p]

Thanks BSL !!

Regards,

Robbo :)

nelehdine
24-05-2005, 05:01 PM
Well done DR , I'll stay on for the ride for the rest of the decade ...

SEC
24-05-2005, 05:44 PM
quote:Originally posted by nelehdine

Well done DR , I'll stay on for the ride for the rest of the decade ...


Nel, I always have a laugh when you say you're holding a stock 'for the rest of the decade', 'until retirement', as a gift for the grandchildren' etc etc because you always seem to sell your declared life-long holds witin six months;)!

SEC

nelehdine
24-05-2005, 10:12 PM
Not this one mate .... but fair comment !!

Papillon
24-05-2005, 11:17 PM
Share price will slowly gather momentum culminating with a EPS = $1.58 announcement by BSL on 23-Aug-05. After that the institutions will drive the price up to $15+ by the end of September. ??!!

Dough Boy
25-05-2005, 09:46 PM
quote:Originally posted by Papillon

Share price will slowly gather momentum culminating with a EPS = $1.58 announcement by BSL on 23-Aug-05. After that the institutions will drive the price up to $15+ by the end of September. ??!!


Papillon, agree with you 100% I have $1.31 eps penciled in on my spreadsheet (my rough as guts estimate) and also see the share being rerated in future to PE of 12 that is a share price of $15.72, ah $15+! If they go over PE of 15 may sell depending on revised future propects and company profit forecasts for 2006 and beyond.

- See my previous analysis of company on this thread.

This investment seems too easy, like shooting fish in a barrel, just too damn easy, hope we are not all caught up in some mass delusion on sharetrader!

Papillon
26-05-2005, 12:39 AM
Raw material prices are easing but Bluescope are still increasing local steel prices. (unfortunately I know this as a fact) Perhaps their volume is falling but not their margins. All the hoohar about Chinese and Japanese production is partially irrelevant because BSL foreign developments have taken careful consideration of specific steel products and local market demand. Easing AUD also increases BSL profits.

Dough Boy
30-05-2005, 01:12 PM
I find it amazing that there is only two pages of comment devoted to this high quality company that is going really somewhere and is cheap yet other crap companies get so many pages of comment you could bind them all together and publish a cheap novel.

For fellow investors in BSL, when I do my hour a day review of market news I sip my morning coffee and a warm feeling comes all over me as I see yet again the managment making another multi-million dollar bargin purchase of a highly profitable company of which they do not even need to visit or appoint excutives to manage it - its their on damm company!

Also they are able to purchase this company without the price being bid up and with a transaction fee less than a 1% and not a commerical lawyer in sight.

nelehdine
31-05-2005, 09:12 AM
Don't forget Dough Boy each day the buyback continues you own a slightly larger portion of this juicy morsel as well !!

AS to your other point about the lack of threads on this site about decent companies ... I agree it is a sad reflection on most of the contributors than we can't get a decent forum going on quality Aussie blue-chips ... I've never seen a thread on diverse stocks such as Rio Tinto, Publishing and Broadcasting, QBE, Woolworths, or Westfield ...

Papillon
31-05-2005, 11:28 PM
Don't forget that as BSL buys back shares your getting a bigger portion of a shrinking pie.

Despite having a large BSL holding I still have concerns. BSL is currently trading at PE=10. This might sound very low but compare BSL PE to international steel producers, all of whom have been hit hard the last month;

OLYMPIC STEEL INC [ZEUS] 2.79
WHEELING-PITTSBURGH [WPSC] 2.80
INSTEEL INDUSTRIES [IIIN] 2.99
MITTAL STEEL CO NV [MT] 3.06
GERDAU AMERISTEEL CP [GNA] 3.11
GERDAU SA [GGB] 3.65
OREGON STEEL MILLS [OS] 4.01
GRUPO SIMEC SA [SIM] 4.06
IPSCO INC [IPS] 4.27
METAL MGMT INC [MTLM] 4.32

Moonshine
15-06-2005, 03:04 PM
Hi Nelehdine, DB, Papillon,

Slight obstacle to those previous forecasts shaping up at the moment...??
Market seems to be selling quite readily.

Good buying opportunity some might say, are you topping up?

Cheers,

Moonshine

Moonshine
16-06-2005, 11:34 AM
Well others have certainly topped up this morning!!

Up $0.23 (3.01%) in early trade!

Dough Boy
16-06-2005, 04:00 PM
quote:Originally posted by Moonshine

Hi Nelehdine, DB, Papillon,

Slight obstacle to those previous forecasts shaping up at the moment...??
Market seems to be selling quite readily.

Good buying opportunity some might say, are you topping up?

Cheers,

Moonshine


Moon Shine not topping up as already are overweight in this one from previous gains. Must stick to the rules of investing!

nelehdine
16-06-2005, 06:01 PM
Just holding ... will buy more on a break-out over $8.50

Moonshine
16-06-2005, 06:11 PM
Hi Nelehdine,

Can you please explain why you would wait until it reached $8.50 instead of buying now... or perhaps tomorrow after any profit taking following today's stellar run?

I don't understand why you would wait for it to increase further before buying... given your view's on BHP thus far?

Cheers,

Moonshine

nelehdine
16-06-2005, 06:21 PM
Hi Moonshine, I bgt into BSL a few months ago, 2 seperate purchases 792 and 756 ... despite a few attempts to break out over 830 they are still basically range trading between 830 and 750. I am happy with my holding at 3.75% of my portfolio ( NZ$270k ) but will up that to probably 5-6% when I am happy they are about to start a renewed uptrend by breaking out above 830 ... I have decided in 2005 to adopt an averaging up strategy rather than an averaging down one .. so far I am very pleased with the results ... makes you buy shares that are rising rather than falling !!

robbo
17-06-2005, 03:36 PM
Blue Scope Steel (BSL)

Defying the Media "down on all things Steel" --- Blues again ...quite nicely I see. .;)

Bought back in last night at around $7.89 in the arvo yesterday....towards the end of ASX trading ...[:p]

So lets wack on the Usual ....Robbo inspired 'from the back of nowhere'.... of: ---say around the #11% mark --and we'll set a Sell for BSL @ $8.77...

With a SET time limit to Cash in and take these (hopefully) BSL profits; in 15 Clear Trading days from Today: 17/6/05 --or 3 normal weeks time....which will be Friday July 8th...

Too hopefully re-stock the Crownie Fridge here at the PUB !! [8D][:p]


So with that Info transparently at hand ......whose betting whether Robbo and friends ...will be drinking Free Cold Crownies in 3 weeks time ??? !!

Kind Regards,

Robbo . :):)

Dough Boy
17-06-2005, 05:18 PM
Has anyone noticed how the price dropped recently when the buybacks ceased. The buybacks obviously support the price in the short term or cause it to drop when it ceases, but in the long term will also tend to take the shares out of the hands of those that would be future sellers. So in the short-term price will be pushed up and down by the buyback action whilst longer term the price will be appreciative as less of the free float is in the hands of those inclined to sell on a small upside movement rather than hold longer term. Or am I reading too much into this concept?

Moonshine
14-07-2005, 05:23 PM
G'day Robbo...

well your mark of 3 weeks was slightly out, but looks like you'll be stocking the Fridge with some fresh new crownies pretty shortly!

The chart for BSL is interesting... a much slower recovery than, say, your BHP's... BSL ($8.56 close) is still $2.25 off it's high 5 months ago of low-mid $10's, whereas BHP ($18.70 close) is almost knocking on it's highs again...

I am not sure why this might be the case. Any ideas there Robbo, Nele et al?

Cheers,

Moonshine

nelehdine
14-07-2005, 07:26 PM
Unfortunately I've spent all my spare dough on a couple of oilers ... Oil Search and Amadeus Energy so I won't be averaging up on my BSL position. The last couple of days have been very encouraging, on no news as well, the on-market buy-back has obviously cleaned out a few weak holders which is great for people in for the long haul ... EPS accretive too !! As you say still way off the $10 highs, the profit announcement season is not far away and I'm sure BSL's will be absolutely spectacular !! guidance for the next 2/3yrs will be crucial.

Disc: In for the very long haul.

nelehdine
18-07-2005, 12:51 PM
Shares have powered ahead over the last few days ... now at 878 , a 10% rise in fairly quick time. Maybe consensus is shifting to high HRC prices being sustained for a longer period.

Disc: recent purchaser of BSL ( 792 & 756 )

nelehdine
28-07-2005, 02:10 PM
Just sold 1/3rd of my BSL holding at 922. With the currency gains converted back into NZD over 20% gain inside 4 months. felt the stock had run very hard but definetly beleive in the long term story ... happy to book some profits and take the effective entry price on the balance to just over A$7

Papillon
10-08-2005, 01:55 AM
quote:Originally posted by Papillon

Share price will slowly gather momentum culminating with a EPS = $1.58 announcement by BSL on 23-Aug-05. After that the institutions will drive the price up to $15+ by the end of September. ??!!


So far so good
Low of $7.29 on 29/4 with increasing momentum to current price $9.53. Up 31% so far. Another 57% to go.

homermcc
10-08-2005, 07:42 AM
Paps - hope your right:D VERRRYYYY BBRAAAAAVVVEEE:D

soulman
11-08-2005, 12:28 PM
I have sold at $948.....not good timing because I rather sold today at my target price of $970 all along. I have seen this thing drops from $1000 to $750 and thats scary stuff.

Anyway, results will be out 23rd Aug 2005 and I am thinking $1 bilion NPAT and EPS of $140 but a poor/cautious outlook. Special dividends will be there and FF div of more than 50 cents for the year a certainty. I mean even if BSL makes $700 mil NPAT, they are still at a PE of 10, which is still good. Now they are at a PE of 7.

Good luck to you all holding. I would still like to be holding for a little longer.

nelehdine
17-08-2005, 02:34 PM
Knocking on the door of $10 ... 995 trading, this stock has had an amazing run the last 6/8 weeks, what great buying below $8 in Apr/May ...25% gain in 3 months on a multi billion $ company ... awesome !!

Disc: Holding BSL ...

soulman
19-08-2005, 06:57 PM
Will history repeat itself or will this time BSL rally to $11.00. Only time will tell.

It all depends on the outlook BSL gives. Kirby Adams has proven himself before but not realising that when BSL was spun-out, steel prices was just starting to head north and Mr Adams had a good head start. Now it's all about improving in tough times.

younga
23-08-2005, 11:53 AM
Looks like it won't get up to $11.... hope it stays about $9. I think the market was expecting about a 1.1 bill profit. What do you chaps think - hold or sell?

soulman
23-08-2005, 07:45 PM
Yep, it won't get to $11 alright. Divs was sweet but not good enough. It's more got to do that BSL won't beat this year record next year. Off course they won't (no dummy to figure that out when all other steel coy in the world complaining about lower steel price and steel price plummeting due to China being a net exporter of steel from net importer) but Kirby Adams said that this year 06 will be the second best year for BSL, hence earnings between $584 mil and $1 bil.

Not sure about you guys but I think Blue has got another 30 cents spanking to go tommorow. We'll see.

laurie
23-08-2005, 08:23 PM
Well it's not retail investors that's pushing the price down! some fund managers are getting a bit too powerfull

cheers laurie

soulman
25-08-2005, 02:23 AM
With a forecast of $710 mil plus NPAT for FY 2006, BSL at current prices is sitting just over $1 EPS and PE of 9 plus. Not bad value.

Dough Boy
15-09-2005, 01:29 PM
As I have stated before this one is going to climb well beyond $10 and this weeks price actin looks like it going to break the $10 ceiling so hold on to your pants guys and girls.

Now for how long it going up that is for at least several years as BSL transforms it balance of business from being a commodity supplier to a technology supplier (engineered products).

Moonshine
21-10-2005, 02:06 PM
Whilst i can tell from my simple powers of interpretation that the chart is in a downward trend at the moment... would any of the TA's be able to give a more meaningfull interpretation of the chart in the medium term?

This looks to be a good trade, with the added security of blue-chip status??

Cheers,

Moonshine

Moonshine
04-11-2005, 01:56 PM
Well... as a possible retraction to my last query, does this now present a good buying price for BSL?

Any comments on today's announcement?

It does still forecast a "second best year" for this coming FY. Not tooooo bad a result?

Cheers,

Moonshine

robbo
04-11-2005, 02:28 PM
BSL

Blue Scope Steel

Could be a sort of Contrarian and Ballsy Good : "Dead Cat Bounce: sort of a Deal --"

Gee Wizzzzz.....&gt;&gt;&gt; the Bears are give-ing BSL a Good Going over today aren't they !!

I am going to be a bit frisky and risky-- and chuck $50K in and see whether I can do a rare 2 -3 day --say take profit at 6-7% in next 48 hours.... JOB....j ust for Fun!! [8D][8D][:p]

So have put $50k in ...@ $7.26 average....

Will next 2 days demostrate I am Stuopid or ars **** y...!

Reckon there is 75% chance I'll get the bounce...and be ars ****y!

Regards,

Robbo :)

nelehdine
05-11-2005, 08:23 AM
Brave boy DavidRob , I got out at 922 and 962 several months ago, watched them ever since and was tempted earlier this week at about 840, fortunately didn't do anything and now the shares are $1 lower. Any positive sentiment about this stock has now disappeared for quite a while I would think, could be a couple of years before the steel bulls get back in charge. Posters on Hotcopper think its a short down to $6.50 at which point the yield becomes very attractive if they can maintain this years divi payout. I'll keep watching and waiting, another 8-10% fall and I will be very tempted.

robbo
05-11-2005, 10:12 AM
Hi - ya Nelehdine

Bluescope Steel BSL

Yeah, "brave boy is probably "silly boy"

Closed higher than the Low though...

Monday will have finger close to the trigger to make or lose a quick couple of Kay

Robbo

soulman
06-11-2005, 04:19 PM
Blue is by far the most volatile stock in the ASX 50 although many stock has incredible volatility due to the full battery charged market we have here. Therefore, this market is very good for lucky traders or skillful traders. One day up 30 cents, the next, down 30, the next, up 30 and the next, down 30. This is for the banks stock that I witness over the past few weeks.

I sold mine BSL at $9.48 just before the profit announcement, watched it go to $9.20 due to the fire at one of BSL plant and then to $10.00 for the 44 cents divy. If I was registered with a CFD provider, I would have shorted BSL, although I would have sold out at $8.50 for the short.

Dead cat bounce is possible Robbo and it looks like you already made a nice profits at Friday close of $7.43. Also, well done on your sale Neleh.

robbo
07-11-2005, 07:21 PM
Bluescope

Jumped out at $7.48 for a measly profit of around $500 !!
Oh well,Go to a nice restaurant.

Regards,

Robbo

tracker
07-11-2005, 07:24 PM
hey DR

mate of mine lost close to 50g
went long a bucket load just b4 downngrade, from mem he bought high 860,s for his super fund

he would be thrilled with a 500 buck profit I PROMISE

tracker

Dough Boy
13-01-2006, 02:07 PM
May I just remind all again about this opportunity:

I have held BSL since August 03 and generally agree with the comments. As to the low PE this is simply a reflection of the discount applied to steel companies worldwide. Some companies are even more lowly priced that BSL (for good reasons!). However what separates BSL from the chaff is the coated steel products and building products divisions. At the moment the market does not seem to regonize the intellectural property of thier roofing products and the value of its brand. In a former life I was an engineer and Bluescope steel porducts were always at the top of the list for specification because of their reputation.

Also Bluescope has proven itself to be intelligent buyer of hard assets (unwanted/ unprofitable steel mills and such like) for knock-down prices then converting them to produce profitable high value added products.

Meanwhile I accummulate and sit and wait for the brains trust of the investment community to annouce that BSL is more than just a steel company (already some brokers are now saying this!) Just waiting for the Mr Market to rerate this share and value it as an international industral of which a PE of 12 to 15 would be more realistic, doubling it current share price!

See you all at the auction, to sell down when it's P.E. &gt; 15.

Update:

Further buy-back of 10% currently underway at even lower prices than previous on-market and off-market buy-back in early 2005. If they continue at this pace of buying back the company soon these shares will be extinct, except for those shares that have been hoarded by the long-term investors as of late.

soulman
14-01-2006, 05:29 AM
Unfortunately Dough Boy, BSL will never be a growth stock, with the cyclical nature of steel coy. Expansion in India and in other East Asian countries might not help the bottom line if China is a net exporter.

World Hot Rolled Coil prices drop and profits drop. It's a sure bet. BSL is one of the lowest cost producer of HRC and it's margin on that is very high. Other business margins in BSL is low compared to their HRC monopoly in Aust.

However, who knows one day Arcelor might bid for BSL and that it's worth holding if they are still paying out divy of at least 44 cents this FY. We'll see in late FEB 06.

Dough Boy
16-01-2006, 01:41 PM
quote:Originally posted by soulman

Unfortunately Dough Boy, BSL will never be a growth stock, with the cyclical nature of steel coy. Expansion in India and in other East Asian countries might not help the bottom line if China is a net exporter.

World Hot Rolled Coil prices drop and profits drop. It's a sure bet. BSL is one of the lowest cost producer of HRC and it's margin on that is very high. Other business margins in BSL is low compared to their HRC monopoly in Aust.

However, who knows one day Arcelor might bid for BSL and that it's worth holding if they are still paying out divy of at least 44 cents this FY. We'll see in late FEB 06.




Yes Soulman, it certainly is not a traditional growth company nor is it just a steel company but something inbetween and that is what makes it a very interesting investment prospect. The crux of this prospect is how much cash they can accuulate in this expansion cycle in the world economy and how much they can buy-back such as to mitigate the effect of a slow down in profit margins on the EPS.

soulman
16-01-2006, 06:17 PM
Big buying in BSL today up 30 cents. Take/Over specs or just bargain hunting. Even at 95 cents EPS, PE is still only 8 and div yield of nearly 6 percent FF. And remember that India might be another China soon and that China would need a lot of steel for the Beijing 2008 Olympic. I still hold Smorgon Steel after I sell out of BSL.

Dough Boy
17-01-2006, 04:49 PM
Up another 10 cents today to 740 cents. Probably due in part to the $90m buyback in recent weeks which has taken a lot of the free float in the market out of the hands of the less committed investors who are not long-term holders.

soulman
18-01-2006, 04:10 PM
Dough, I also think that the current T/O battle for a Canadian Steelmaker between 2 steel giants is causing a stir in BSL SP ATM.

Does anyone know the half yearly result date for BSL?

soulman
30-01-2006, 06:48 PM
Another merger tilt between the two largest steelmaker in the world. BSL seems likely to participate if any other steel giants decide to have a go in the Australian and NZ steel market where BSL has a strong footing.

BSL has been a strong performer and today with 20 mil shares traded, is in strong demand. I knew I should have bought some last Wednesday when it traded as low as $7.14.

SEC
08-02-2006, 10:51 PM
Soulman, I bet you're pleased not to have bought BSL at $7.14. Downgraded EPS forecast 18% below broker expectations but shareprice dropped only 12% today so I suspect there's worse to come. $6 may be sorely tested in the next few days.

SEC

soulman
09-02-2006, 03:47 AM
Yes, I am glad I did not buy any SEC. Unless I bought some and sold off at $8.00 before this carnage happens.

This proves that BSL is a very cyclical stock and the good times are over for now. I do suspect a drop to about $6.00, which, if they pay 42 DPS, equates to a very nice yield. BSL won't be a bad buy at around $5.50 (if it does get there).

SEC, are you the one that sold off you Portman shares in the T/O or do you still hold it?

SEC
09-02-2006, 10:19 PM
quote:Originally posted by soulman

SEC, are you the one that sold off you Portman shares in the T/O or do you still hold it?

Aye, I was the mug who decided to sell PMM at $3.90. They're up 50% since I sold in April. As I said at the time, Cleveland Cliffs got the bargain of the decade. The illiquidity of PMM shares puts me off buying back. In my defense I quickly recycled that 'war chest' into the likes of DOW TSE RCD and a top up of WOR so have probably still made 50% on the proceedings.

SEC

Torrero
16-01-2007, 03:13 PM
It seems from all accounts I have read that there is a global over supply of steal, with the construction slowdown in the US this has hurt the price of steel, there seems to be an over supply of steel global that has pushed the price down and the price of scrap metal has risen and is continueing to rise. So do people feel that stocks like this one BSL are a keeper.

soulman
16-01-2007, 07:43 PM
To tell you, BSL is not a keeper long term. Very wild and cyclical. Not for the faint hearted. BSL is doing well now due to the profit upgrade a couple of months ago. Also, the corporate appeal due to the steel T/O and mergers around the world could value Blue at about $10 per share.

laurie
16-01-2007, 08:36 PM
So no one factors in dividends [?]

cheers laurie

drillfix
22-08-2011, 12:56 PM
Wow, been a while since anybody posted in BSL (like since Jan 2007)

But then now wonder, and its been a wild ride downward for Blue Scope Stell since them days.

As reported on market watch:


For the full-year, Bluescope swung to a 1.1 billion Australian dollar ($1.1 billion) loss, compared to a profit of A$126 million in the year-ago period.

Geez, how in the heck do you go brom a 126 Million Profit to a 1.1 Billion Loss in a year??

macduffy
22-08-2011, 01:25 PM
Geez, how in the heck do you go brom a 126 Million Profit to a 1.1 Billion Loss in a year??

Strong Aussie dollar = no export markets for BSL.

drillfix
22-08-2011, 01:52 PM
Strong Aussie dollar = no export markets for BSL.

Pretty good reason there MacDuff, but surely not 1.1 Billion?

How much do the executives and bean counters get paid, 10 million each?

drillfix
22-08-2011, 02:06 PM
Gillard has announced a $110 million cah injection for BSL

wow, that is nearly $110,000 grand each / per worker they will lay off.

No doubt Blue Scope will pay them 50K each reduncancy and report a 60 Million profit next year :P

macduffy
22-08-2011, 02:16 PM
[QUOTE][Pretty good reason there MacDuff, but surely not 1.1 Billion?
/QUOTE]

Included a $900m write down on plant. Not a lot of value in steelworks that have no export markets.

drillfix
22-08-2011, 02:30 PM
Fair enough, and that ought to do it really.

Then why is the Gillard Gov trying to throw away Tax Payer money to save something that really cant be saved?

Its like they could pay each worker there a wage for 2 years without lifting a finger.

drillfix
22-08-2011, 03:18 PM
Ahh well, in @ 72 and out @ 73c for a quick scalp which the trade lasted for the best part of 2 minutes for a quick profit.

soulman
14-08-2012, 07:30 PM
Massive volume in BSL the last 2 days and steep rise in the share price. The deal with the Japanese JV looks good and net debt has fallen $200 mil more than expected.

A re-rate for BSL. Also, US$540 mil coming in from the Japanese JV in MAR 2013.