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nelehdine
03-02-2004, 04:37 PM
As an ex holder ( out at 384 with AU at $375 ) I have decided to jump back in at 328 ( dn 20c ) today. Have scanned the wires and can't find anything to justify this 6pct sell-off. Glad to be back on board this well run company ... thanks to the seller for this opp to buy back in at 90c cheaper than a few weeks ago !!!

Any other holders looking to top up at these prices !!! ???

nelehdine
03-02-2004, 04:44 PM
Only got 3208 at 328 ... still on the bid for a few more ... last trade at 332 !! %$^&*(&%$ !!

Bobco
03-02-2004, 05:09 PM
Contrast LHG, these guys have cash cost of production US$117 per ounce for last quarter, some difference. Bit cunning though, they get some silver with the gold, sell and deduct that revenue so they can quote a low cost of their gold.
Cheers
bobco---still holding, why is it not $4.50

nelehdine
03-02-2004, 09:46 PM
Got the balance I wanted at 328 ... Agree Bobco , the high silver price certainly helps KCN keep their AU production cost figures down. Silver is obviously a by-product of gold production so I have no problem with the way they acct for it.

nelehdine
09-02-2004, 10:45 AM
Nice 6c rally on Friday ... after NY gold stocks impressive surge on Friday ( up 4/5/6pct ) would hope to see KCN well into the $3.40's today.
Target profit on this trade is 20pct which equates to an exit price of $3.94 which is well within recent trading range.

Disc: Bgt 4382 KCN at 328 last Tues.

nelehdine
09-02-2004, 11:10 AM
345/346 +9c

nelehdine
09-02-2004, 05:33 PM
Up a very solid 15c ( 4.5% ) to 351. A strong gold market o/n in London and NY should see gains consolidated or maybe added to tomorrow. Pity the poor sellers last week down to 325 !!!

nelehdine
10-02-2004, 06:55 PM
Another very powerful performance from KCN .... up another 8c to 359. Interesting to see if gold can build on recent trading gain tonight. May have to revise my target upwards as have made 1/2 my anticipated profit in under a week !!! $1,500 up inside 7 days is one of my better trades !!

Disc: Bgt 4382 KCN last Tues at 328

srotherh
10-02-2004, 08:13 PM
Nele
One of my favourites too
Also Picked up some more while they were oversold:D

nelehdine
12-02-2004, 07:20 AM
Another stunning performance from KCN yesterday .. traded down to 350 early on after the small AU sell-off o/n in NY. Shares then rallied all the way back up to unchanged at 359 and carried on late in the day to actually end up 2c at 361. Gold up over $410 as a write this ... stock could push even higher today ... MAGIC !!!!

Disc: BGT 4382 KCN at 328 last Tuesday.

nelehdine
12-02-2004, 02:42 PM
368 ... must be pretty gutting viewing for those who got panicked out in the 320's only the middle of last week !!!.

nelehdine
16-02-2004, 12:32 PM
Didn't like the way gold traded on Friday in NY ... bailed on 3/4 of KCN at 375 just now .. 20c short of target but still a 47c/sh profit inside 2 weeks. Keeping 1250 as a long term hold ... in the book at $2.25/sh after writing profit on the sale back into the ave purchase price !!! GROOVY !!!

KCN; 374/375

nelehdine
28-02-2004, 10:03 AM
A shocking week for KCN shares ... results announced early in week were excellent ... lower cash costs, increased production, and a raised profit forcast for next 12 months. Shares have plummeted ever since from 370 down to 330. A very well timed sale of 3/4 of my holding at 375 but feel the shares have been harshly dealt to for no reason. Any thoughts SROTHETH or BOBCO ... see LHG down to $1.11 !!! Amazing sell-off over recent months from the $1.70 area .... is there some real value in these stocks at the moment ... especially if Gold was to average say $380-390 for the rest of 2004.

Disc: Hold 1250 KCN and tempted by LHG at current levels !!

srotherh
28-02-2004, 10:55 AM
Nele
KCN Presently PE 6.25 Div yield 6.8%
Not a junior with potential but a producer with heaps going for it
Appears to be a well run Co
Every time it dips like this I dig around and buy a few more.
Cheers

Gofish.
28-02-2004, 02:17 PM
For the KCN fans, OXR has an area immediately adjacent to Chatree.
There is a recent presentation to a mining conference on Oxiana's website, which includes preliminary rockchip sampling from Thailand.
Looks very promising.

nelehdine
23-03-2004, 08:16 AM
Gold has slowly crept back up to the $415-$420 area ... with all the political/terrorism uncertainty around at present there is a real cahnce it could break gigher into a new trading range. Gold stocks look great value at moment ... my favourites and current holdings are Newmont,Newcrest and Kingsgate with KCN being my tip to outperform ... P/E less than 10 , div yield >5% and just mining an extremely rich seam within the Chartree mine which will boost AU recovery for the next few months, just as the gold price is looking very strong !! KCN currrently at 359

srotherh
23-03-2004, 09:03 AM
Actually Nele
I believe gold shares are undervalued in comparision to the physical stuff. They have taken a little more hammering in the recent down turn in the POG My pick is good cos like this should rerate in the near future KCN certainly good value and underated IMO[8D]

nelehdine
24-03-2004, 07:51 AM
The last time Gold was anywhere near $420oz KCN were trading way above $4 .... I can't work out why the market is being so pig-headed about giving these well run producing gold mining stocks such feeble valuations on this latest $20 rally in the physical stuff. KCN looks especially cheap at the moment.

nelehdine
25-03-2004, 02:25 PM
Nice move since my last thread ... 362 to 379 insde 48hrs. Stock is ex a 10c dividend so effectively now at 389. A far cry from 328 only a short month and a half ago. Plenty of mileage left in this one though !!

Disc: Hold small no's of KCN

tracker
25-03-2004, 02:32 PM
nice trade
tracker

Bobco
29-04-2004, 03:51 PM
Big slide again today down over 8% at 340 odd, is this just the gold price effect or is there some other driver?
Tempted to buy more at this level.

nelehdine
29-04-2004, 04:50 PM
Agree BOBCO , KCN certainly getting hammered this afternoon ... have just bgt some at 333 a few minutes ago. Stock now down over 10pct today which is enough of a sell-off for me to get bullish again. This is a great trading stock in the 330-380 range ... good 10/12% gains to be had in relatively short time frames. Divi of approx 25cps gives some comfort as well if you need to hold a bit longer than expected !!

nelehdine
29-04-2004, 04:55 PM
337 trading .. may have seen the lows of the day at 332 a few minutes ago !!

Bobco
29-04-2004, 06:45 PM
EH,you are more clever than I, got mine at 336. Gold price overnight will be interesting and probably determine tomorrows direction.

nelehdine
29-04-2004, 09:49 PM
dn another 2.25 in London ... trading at $382.25 ... may fall below $380 with sentiment so weak. still expecting new highs later in the year

clearasmud
29-04-2004, 10:10 PM
Has anyboby done a fundamental analysis of this co?
If this co is such a "goldmine" why did it need a 41M share issue last half?
Cheers

nelehdine
30-04-2004, 11:01 AM
Think the management prefer equity to debt .. nothing more sinister than that from what I can gather.

Mr_p_yu
01-05-2004, 10:58 AM
Big sell off coming up....think you better get out before you take a big bath, neleh"dumb"dine.

nelehdine
03-05-2004, 04:29 PM
Thanks for the advise Mr p yu ... as your a big holder of PRG I hope you don't mind if I ignore it ....

KCN +8 today at 342

tracker
03-05-2004, 05:49 PM
hey nel
where the hell did that come from
tracker

nelehdine
04-05-2004, 08:17 AM
Hi Tracker ... this p yu guy doesn't like the fact that I'm super-bearish on PRG ( Kiwi appliance retailer who think they can take on the Brits in their own back yard and beat them ) so he slags every stock off that I like or have shares in. He probably wouldn't know a gold ingot if it dropped on his big toe !!

tracker
04-05-2004, 09:54 AM
HMMMMMMMMMMMMmmm the beauty of the ST site , was until recently none of this crap happened, seems a pity
tracker

Sharpie
04-05-2004, 03:45 PM
KCN up 4.4% today to $3.55 and gold has fallen slightly in the last 24 hrs. Is it a correction because the stock has been undervalued, or is there something I don't know.

Bring on the Bling!

nelehdine
04-05-2004, 09:23 PM
Stock is cheap in terms of PE and yield ... still hugely profitable at $385oz ... the market forgets gold was a $100oz lower not so long ago ... great trading opps constantly appear with these mid-cap gold co's.

Disc: Hold KCN

nelehdine
05-05-2004, 09:00 AM
KCN closed up a massive 20c at $3.60 . Will be interesting to see if it can hold all of this today. I guess with the physical stuff having a really good session in London and NY we may look OK .... even maybe add a few more cents ... those poor fools who sold on Friday down to 332 ... oh dear !!!

Sharpie
05-05-2004, 10:42 PM
Closed today at $3.68 about 10% up on friday's low.

Gold now threatening $395 oz and could even get a look in at $400 if NY gold market has a good night.

Holding KCN.

Bring on the Bling!

nelehdine
22-05-2004, 08:44 AM
KCN and NCM have had a really good week ... until last night gold basically tracked sideways while KCN moved up approx 25c to 360 and Newcrest soared from $10.60 to trade as high as $12.58 yesterday with a close at $12.47 . I bailed on some of my NCM that I bought 10 days ago at 11.27 yesterday at 12.50 ... a cool 11% profit in less than that number of days !!

Gold up over $5 last night in NY so expect the good times to keep on rolling early next week.

Disc: Hold KCN,NCM and NEM

Revhead
07-10-2004, 12:34 PM
Getting knocked down this morning. I see Merryll Lynch have put a sell on it - so that may explain why it's dropping.

from ML below:

Similar to Perseverance, Kingsgate Consolidated is also a single-asset company; the Chatree project in Thailand. However, unlike Perseverance the broker notes the Chatree project has limited potential for expansion, as access to additional ground for exploration is diffi cult and given Kingsgate is required to divest 51% of the operation to a Thai entity by 2Q FY07.

A possible saviour is the Thailand – Australia Free Trade Agreement, due to be signed next year. In the agreement Australian companies are allowed to hold 60% of mining ventures in Thailand, but the broker expects that if this applies to Kingsgate the company will likely lose some of the tax and import duty benefi ts it currently receives.

Supporting Merrill Lynch’s Sell recommendation is the fact that the project is believed to have peaked operationally. High initial grades meant the mine was a low cost operation, but to maintain production at around 150koz annually the plant is being expanded, which the broker expects will add to production costs.

Merrill Lynch also notes Kingsgate has signifi cant out-of-the-money call options in place, which could limit gold price upside.
The broker notes the key risk to its recommendation is exploration success, which it views as unlikely given ownership issues in Thailand. The broker points out Kingsgate is in a prospective area, as adjacent land has returned good drilling results but acquisition of exploration licences remains a problem. The company currently has lodged prospecting licences covering 1400sq km, with news regarding these applications expected over the next year.

Merrill Lynch’s NPV for KCN is $2.18, but notes the stock is trading at a 40% premium to this despite the difficulties mentioned. The broker does not consider such a premium justified.

Bobco
26-10-2004, 02:28 PM
Sept. qtr report has production down and costs up, and the market has slammed the SP down under $3.
Becoming a bad news stock. As soon as price looks to be on a recovery path something else comes along and chops it down again.

tracker
29-10-2004, 05:26 AM
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
275 should have been the low
it went below that which i dont like looking at, BUT closed above 275 so we might just might see a reversal
hey nel you still in this
techie thoughts as always
tracker
ps hope goes right way for holders

nelehdine
29-10-2004, 10:33 AM
Used to have over 4000 Tracker but fortunately bailed at 375 ( when gold was under $400oz ). Still have a few scraps ( 479 ) but agree at 275 it might be interesting. To be honest the one's I have owe me absolutely nothing and I think Newcrest has such a great outlook I have put all my "gold" money into them.

Bobco
19-10-2006, 04:22 PM
Not doing too good today, anybody got an idea of why this particular goldy is out of favour at the moment?

JBmurc
25-10-2007, 12:53 PM
Have had a CFD long in KCN of late got huge upside once they get the Northern leases which could be very soon most brokers value $6-$8 on a 600 gold price my pick is $1000oz+ in 08
-Trading of late has be strange in the way alot of very small orders keep selling into any bids then just after close a big boy buys up over 10% of the days total volume.
-of late- LGL,NCM,DOM,EQIetc have all been brought up while KCN has been going sideways and down,Any other ST hold KCN am looking at buy some shares soon





-----------------off huntleys---------------------BUY--------

KCNs Chatree gold mine in Thailand hosts 1.7Moz of reserves and 3.8Moz of resources. Mine life is over 12 years at current throughput rates with potential to convert/delineate more ounces a key attraction. A plan to double production to 300kozpa appeals. Negatives include foreign currency exposure and country risk. Political uncertainty has increased since the Thai coup. Recent environmental approvals reduce uncertainty regarding the ungranted northern licenses. Their granting is nonetheless imperative. Gold production is unhedged. KCN is appropriate for risk tolerant investors seeking gold exposure and exploration blue sky.

Event04-Oct-2007
Ongoing growth in Chinese metals consumption followed by India, mining industry input cost inflation, industry consolidation, infrastructure bottlenecks, a scarcity of quality resources due to years of exploration neglect and sovereign risk are all underpinning commodity price strength. The long run average marginal cost of production has jumped permanently higher for most commodities. Much of the new demand has been satisfied by higher cost mines. Australia is a major beneficiary of the macro economic fundamentals and not surprising our currency continues to rise, at last count 86.8 US cents versus our long term forecast of 0.76. We have previously been in no great hurry to increase that long term number as our commodity price forecasts are cast with an eye more firmly on the A$ prices, rather than US dollar prices. The ratio of the A$/US$ exchange rate versus US dollar commodity prices is more important. We now upgrade our long term A$/US$ exchange rate outlook to 0.80.

Business Impact: KCN has recovered from recent $4.50ps lows but is still sufficiently below our valuation to retain a Buy. The 20% increase in our long term gold price forecast sees that valuation increase by an impressive 37% to $8.24ps. KCN had a forgettable FY07 punctuated by delays with the grant of the Chatree North mining leases. The head of the Thai mines department says the leases will be granted soon. That will see increased feed grade of around 2g/t, maintenance of high mill throughput and recoveries, and a major cost decrease. Those positives will be enhanced by selling into favourable spot prices now hedging is extinguished. The company forecasts FY08 production of 110-120koz prior to a rise to 140-150koz once northern leases contribute. A doubling of capacity, dependent on Chatree North, remains on track for December 2008 commissioning. The risk is in the timing and likelihood of Chatree North lease grants. Low grade stock piles sufficient for a year's production and a $70m injection from the sale of Andean Resources provide some breathing space for delays.





Event Analysis
COMPANY PRICE OLD VALUATION NEW VALUATION FY08 EPS FY09 EPS RECO
KCN 5.16 6.00 8.25 28 83.8 Buy

JBmurc
25-10-2007, 01:19 PM
Kingsgate focuses on securing Thai licence
Kevin Andrusiak | October 05, 2007

GOLD miner Kingsgate Consolidated says it will use the $70 million proceeds booked from the sale of its stake in Andean Resources to further its interest in Thailand.

Chief executive Gavin Thomas said the sale was done solely to cash in on the Andean share price, which had been tracking record highs since late September. Kingsgate built an 18.35 per cent stake in Andean during a bitter, scrip-only takeover battle last year.

The sale was done through Canadian brokers with 63.55 million shares sold to unknown parties at $1.10 each.

Andean controls the Cerro Negro gold project in Argentina. This is yet to get into production and has a market capitalisation about $150 million less than Kinsgate's.

"My personal view is that we would have driven the project a lot harder," Mr Thomas said.

"We will use the money to repay debt. I'd very much like to be debt free."

Mr Thomas said he was still confident that Thai authorities would grant much needed access to develop the northern leases at its flagship Chatree gold project before the Thai general election on December 23.

He would seek an update on the approvals process after flying to Thailand yesterday.

"In Thailand they don't want to be pushed," he said.

"We will get there. We are the second largest Australian investor in Thailand."

The mining licence approvals are essential if Kingsgate is to replace the falling ore grades at Chatree and become a 300,000 ounce a year producer with reserves of 10 million ounces.

The company began the approvals process in 2004 in what is traditionally a very convoluted process.

Kingsgate posted a loss of $12.6 million in the 2006-07 fiscal year on revenues of $52.6 million. Market forecasts are for Kingsgate to produce 110,000 ounces this financial year, but that estimate depends on access to the northern leases.

Findlay Securities broker Gerard Farley said he expected Kingsgate shares to soar if the mining leases were granted.

Industry analysts say that if the leases were granted, this would spark a rash of takeover activity for the company.

Mr Thomas declined to say whether the company had already been approached. Informed sources, however, said there had already been at least three suitors who had come knocking on Kingsgate's front door and that a takeover bid was "probable".

JBmurc
07-11-2007, 06:48 PM
Huntley’s still have a strong recommendation on this stock

They make an interesting comment about the increase in Thai mining royalties...

"The bureaucratic problems that seem to be plaguing the entities responsible for the granting of the Chatree North mining leases are conspicuously absent from the body charged with increasing mining royalties. The Thais have shown extreme efficiency in lifting royalties across a range of commodities...."

They also say.."FY08 earnings forecast declines 25% to 21.4cps.FY09 forecast is relatively unchanged at 84.2cps. That sharp FY09 increase reflects inclusion of Chatree North's higher grades, the partial year of plant expansion and unhedged production. Long term assumptions remain a US$650/oz gold price, an A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.80 and a 15% discount rate. Despite the valuation decline, KCN remains well and truly within our Buy range"

I still believe that the current price volatility offers a superb buying opportunity and investors patience will be well and truly rewarded in the short term.

Joshuatree
02-09-2013, 01:42 PM
Anyone holding? i see debt blown out.

Joshuatree
23-09-2021, 12:06 PM
Up 44.5% today to $1.18 after re 5 years of shutdown by thai govt. 2.5 years ago re 20-23c.