IFT - Infratil

[bull....]

This offer seems like it would actually have been more than a fanciful "testing the waters" approach back in October.

Continuous disclosure rules in Australia

ASX Listing Rule 3.1 imposes an obligation on a listed entity to “immediately” notify the ASX when it becomes aware of any information concerning it which a reasonable person would expect to have material effect on the price or value of the entity’s securities.




rules here are weak for investors in nz. you could have brought in aus before the halt went on for the news look at the volume traded

[Filthy]

OIO approval needed & I cant see significant strategic assets like WIAL being allowed to be sold offshore, even if it is just to our cousins across the ditch....

[dreamcatcher]

Someone wanting $6000 for a share. $3.5 trillion market cap, lol.

Hope they get it ......calculator gave an error message trying to work out my holding

BOOM

[Sideshow Bob]

Up $1.22 to $7.30......

[Felonius]

This offer seems like it would actually have been more than a fanciful "testing the waters" approach back in October.

Continuous disclosure rules in Australia

ASX Listing Rule 3.1 imposes an obligation on a listed entity to “immediately” notify the ASX when it becomes aware of any information concerning it which a reasonable person would expect to have material effect on the price or value of the entity’s securities.




Mmm .. thank you for this Bjauck.
Our rules seem to be deficient.

[Bjauck]

OIO approval needed & I cant see significant strategic assets like WIAL being allowed to be sold offshore, even if it is just to our cousins across the ditch....
Does Australia have exemptions to the rules?

[Joshuatree]

Absolutely agree with the sentiment here
ACC & Fisher funds nearly hold 10 % as far as I can ascertain
Hopefully any takeover will be dead in the water but don't expect this to be the only shot at IFT

Elongated pipeline of return for many years to come that is irreplaceable in my view.
Its not just about the assets its also the IP
They have been very good at looking after all stakeholders along the way
Starting buying these when they first listed in 1994? and have added to all along the way
Its mind boggling how a small amount back then has compounded to where it is now and long may it continue.

Congrats, sold mine along time ago and have dithered about getting back in. One small influence was the brokers.They didnt seem to like Morrison and co ,the managers of Infratil and pointed out the large management fees Morrison extracted amongst other things.
It would be sad and unwise to see some of assets especially renewable ones go offshore. I guess Morrison and co would have a clean sheet to start investing and managing a new company all over again.

[kiora]

Yes regarding the brokers always being down on IFT
Maybe because they couldn't keep up twith IFT 'competive 17 per cent returns
Regarding volumes traded prior the volume was lower than average the previous week
As I noted though the trading pattern through the day was different

[macduffy]

I guess Morrison and co would have a clean sheet to start investing and managing a new company all over again.

Easier said than done, of course. Which is why the Aust fund wants to grab IFT and its established investments.

[ratkin]

Forget personal greed for a moment, this will be a massive loss to the exchange

[Brain]

Congrats, sold mine along time ago and have dithered about getting back in. One small influence was the brokers.They didnt seem to like Morrison and co ,the managers of Infratil and pointed out the large management fees Morrison extracted amongst other things.
It would be sad and unwise to see some of assets especially renewable ones go offshore. I guess Morrison and co would have a clean sheet to start investing and managing a new company all over again.

I for one have never begrudged Morrison for their high fees because they made money for me. I do however begrudge fees and salaries of the CEOs and directors that are absolutely useless and destroy shareholder value.

[Joshuatree]

Easier said than done, of course. Which is why the Aust fund wants to grab IFT and its established investments.

Yep. the managers have built up some very savvy experience and would relish starting over.Fund managers and investors would throw their IFT profits to them, they sure have the mandate and track record(which seemed to accelerate after Lloyd Morrisons(RIP) departure.Maybe more offshore assets next time.

[Greekwatchdog]

I would prefer the NZ Super Fund buy IFT. Be a better fit for NZ INC.

[Bjauck]

Forget personal greed for a moment, this will be a massive loss to the exchangeLast company left listed on the NZX, kindly turn off the lights when you leave!

As our esteemed leader could have said: There are many reasons why so many NZers invest in residential housing apart from its value continuously heading northward. However I won't address them because it is too difficult and the Kiwis who voted for me, because I wasn't going to rock the boat, may kick me out next time.

[Davexl]

Last company left listed on the NZX, kindly turn off the lights when you leave!

As our esteemed leader could have said: There are many reasons why so many NZers invest in residential housing apart from its value continuously heading northward. However I won't address them because it is too difficult and the Kiwis who voted for me, because I wasn't going to rock the boat, may kick me out next time.

We could do with a true leader / patriot. Someone unafraid of doing the right things despite being potentially voted out. And a followup leader prepared to cement the changes in instead of reversing same. Bi-partisan consensus on 4-year election cycle for a start

Stronger National Interest tests on on major infrastructure asset owners, Insider trading / Disclosure laws that get enforced - eg Infratil FMA / NZSA / Anyone??

[Waiuta]

I couldn't agree more, I have held and accumiated since 2016. IFT shares make up ~15% of my portfolio and I also hold some bonds. They are irreplaceable for me in our NZ market.
Absolutely agree with you Brain.
I would be very sad to see this wonderful company delisted.

[bull....]

ift announced the tilt strategic review during the period they new of the takeover too , so most likely to increase the value of the company and as a defence tatic

[JeremyALD]

IFT response today..... see here (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/364672)

Essentially IFT reject the Aus offer.

"The Board engaged expert legal (MinterEllisonRuddWatts) and financial advisors (Goldman Sachs) and formed a Committee of Independent Directors in October to assist in its assessment of the proposals. The Board reviewed valuation and the proposed structure and unanimously rejected both proposals as materially undervaluing IFT’s high quality and unique portfolio of assets on a control basis. The Board also notes material conditions related to Foreign Investment Review Board and Overseas Investment Office approvals in Australia and New Zealand and considers that there are other aspects of the proposal that are unattractive to IFT shareholders, including distributing Trustpower Limited shares without recognising a control premium and avoiding the need to make a takeover offer for that business."

Good on them. The MET board could learn a thing or two. How much would MET be worth right now if they rejected the offer? More than $6 I'd say!

[dibble]

Curious as to what they are buying... bulk of the portfolio in Sept interim report is 4 assets of about 1bn each (TLT, TPW, Voda, CDC). First 2 they could simply quietly accumulate a decent chunk on the NZX. And no shortage of listed telecoms companies. CDC is certainly interesting but more interesting is why they would pay such a mighty premium (NTA seems to be $3.27) to buy self managing assets in a bundle. Might be a tidy-ish financed bundle but its also bound up with the hefty Morrison mgmt fee that is likely to be expensive to extricate oneself from.

[winner69]

ACC seem to want out? and talking publicly

Hamish Rutherford: Infratil and ACC at odds, again, in $5 billion hostile takeover attempt
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12388853

[Raz]

Probably a bit naughty for IFT to keep the approach a secret. In most investor minds it would be material information and therefore disclosable immediately. The fact is that the market doesn't believe what the Board is saying about IFT being undervalued, otherwise the share price would already have been near the bid price wouldn't it? That this was the situation rests with the Board, who have failed to recognise that shareholder value could have been enhanced by disclosure. I feel sorry for those who sold IFT shares between 18th Oct and yesterday - they have been done a disservice by the Board.

Yeah if I had not been held up would have off loaded a bundle just before the announcement...

[Ggcc]

One question now that the value of all shares have risen substantially. Does this mean Morrison and Co can charge more in management fees based on the value of our shares Price?? Is it in their best interest to make sure the share price is at its highest?

[Sir Ten]

I'm of the view that any takeover has a very very low probability of success - disjointed register, high quality assets, reasonably "soft" independents and a management team motivated to stay in (albeit they would realise substantial upfront value and could sail off into the sunset with their PV'd fees and still manage funds on behalf of their other clients).

I'm not a trader at all, but as a holder my current thinking is that:
- there will be another, more formal, offer closer to/over the $8's;
- share price will rise again;
- time to sell;
- t/o will fail to gain traction;
- share price will drop back to low-mid $7's
- rebuy
- take the profit

I think you could probably could have done the above last week at the mid-$7's on the basis that Aus Super don't bother fronting up with another offer, but too late for that now.

If no further offer comes back, I'm thinking it'll settle in the high $6's but it's not going back to anything with a $5 in front of it unless their data centres blow up, their airport sinks, all of vodafone's towers fall over or TPW's dam's bust...

What you reckon?

[Sir Ten]

Yes, management fees are charged on equity value plus debt.

[Sir Ten]

One question now that the value of all shares have risen substantially. Does this mean Morrison and Co can charge more in management fees based on the value of our shares Price?? Is it in their best interest to make sure the share price is at its highest?

Yes, management fees are charged on market cap and debt.

[kiora]

I wonder how the TO price compares to the sum of the parts.
Craigs doesn't provide a sum of the parts for IFT. Any other brokers?

But then what will the parts be worth in 1-2-5-10 years
4 traders bullish short mid & long term & I go along with that

I would suspect the TO offer price does not come out that generous

A few poison pills for acquirer ?
Needs OIO approval?
Morrison & Co already have a contract with NZ superfund
Perpetuals may convert to shares in some circumstances?
Management fees for 5 years?
Some say the management fees are extortionate. My view is they are what they are and as long as they leave a "reasonable" portion in investors pocket that's OK with me.
Morrison & Co have been top notch at balancing the needs of all stake holders

Maybe Australian Super fund aim is to acquire the "rights" to Morrison & Co services contract?
Just maybe they wouldn't complain at how much Morrison & Co make on the side
Morrison & Co already manage assets for the Commonwealth Superfund
I just hope Morrison & Co don't make a deal on the side with Australian Super fund.

I'm inclined to think TO dead in the water..... I hope

[CJ]

Given TPW, Wellington Airport and even Vodafone will be difficult from an OIO basis, I wonder why they dont just make an offer for Tilt and the Australian assets. if they want access to Morrison & Co, they could just sign up as a client (apparently on y 30% of Morrisons FUM are in IFT).

Or arrange for IFT to split into two, one NZ focused, one RoW focused with the Australian fund a major shareholder in the later.

I think this was dead in the water before it even started.

[kiora]

I hope NZ is awake at the wheel
"Germany in April moved to protect its domestic firms, while Britain's National Security and Investment Bill will bring new powers to scrutinise and intervene in "malicious" foreign investment.

Concerns over the vulnerability of strategic European companies has grown since Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund amassed stakes in four European oil majors earlier this year, said Winston Ma, former managing director of China Investment Corp, a sovereign wealth fund."

Lucky for us that IFT/Morrison & Co where around to buy

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sovereign-funds-step-dealmaking-few-110228910.html

[macduffy]

Is all well with IFT's acquisition of a stake in Qscan?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/365094/337504.pdf

Edit: I made a mess of that, I think! Just wondering though if the Qscan transaction has got caught up in the bid for IFT?
Any thoughts?

[kiora]

"Dear Shareholder

2020 has been a challenging and unprecedented year, as the COVID-19 crisis continues to have health, social and economic consequences across the world. As a company we are proud of how we responded to the difficulties the pandemic presented to our businesses and the position we now find ourselves in. Our priorities throughout the crisis were to keep our people safe, to keep those who rely on our businesses safe and to meet their needs, and to safeguard the capital of our shareholders.

That pride extends to our portfolio of businesses, many of which have been on the front line in supporting New Zealand during this time. Through our investments in Wellington Airport, Vodafone New Zealand, Trustpower and Tilt Renewables, we have been pivotal in keeping the lines of communication open and the lights on for millions of New Zealanders and Australians during the pandemic.

2020 Highlights

Despite the volatile economic backdrop, Infratil has continued to provide outstanding shareholder returns. Over the twelve months the Infratil share price rose from $5.03 to $7.15.

It has also been a year that served to illustrate the benefits of Infratil’s diversification, where the progress at CDC Data Centres and the renewable generation projects of Tilt Renewables and Longroad Energy more than balanced the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on businesses such as Wellington Airport and Retire Australia.

Some other notable achievements during the year include:

CDC's $330 million expansion into New Zealand with the construction of two 10MW+ Data Centres in Auckland, and the commissioning of CDC’s largest Data Centre to date, Eastern Creek 3 (28MW) in Sydney;
Longroad Energy commenced construction on three solar generation projects amounting to 840MW;
Tilt Renewables completed construction of the 336MW Dundonnell wind farm in Victoria, Australia and made significant progress on the 133MW Waipipi wind farm in Taranaki. Of particular note, 865,000 hours of work was undertaken at the two construction sites without a single lost time injury. We are extremely proud of this achievement. Tilt Renewables recently announced finalisation of power sales terms for its planned 400MW Rye Park wind generation project to the west of Sydney. This will be Tilt Renewables’ largest construction project. To put perspective on the scale of these accomplishments Forsyth Barr reported that over the last five years, Infratil had undertaken more investment in renewable generation than any other New Zealand company;
Vodafone New Zealand progressed its investment in 5G mobile network infrastructure and upgraded its international fibre links;
Wellington Airport activity plunged to 1% of normal in April. By November domestic travel was back to 80% of normal levels. International traffic awaits less restrictive border rules which Government has tentatively announced for the first quarter of 2021;
Infratil announced the acquisition of 56% of Australian diagnostic imaging company Qscan, a new sector with strong growth potential. The Foreign Investment Board of Australia granted its approval on 18 December paving the way for completion of the purchase before the end of 2020;
Infratil raised $300 million via an equity issue, enabling funding of growth investments across existing portfolio companies and new opportunities such as Qscan; and
An offer of Infrastructure Bonds maturing March 2026 has raised $49 million as at its initial allotment date and remains open, offering a yield of 3.0% per annum.



Qscan magnetic resonance imaging machine. Vodafone 5G installation Auckland.
Tilt Renewables' Waipipi wind farm, Taranaki. Longroad Energy's utility scale solar installation Texas

This month, we also announced a strategic review of our shareholding in Tilt Renewables. We have recently received a number of enquiries in relation to Tilt Renewables and given strong demand for high quality renewables platforms globally, we believe it is prudent to assess alternatives for our shareholding, including divestment of our position. Any decision to pursue a particular proposal would need to demonstrate a material increase in expected returns and shareholder value relative to the current positive outlook. The strategic review is scheduled to be concluded within six months.

Unsolicited bid for 100% of Infratil

In December, the Board confirmed that it had received two non-binding, incomplete and indicative proposals from AustralianSuper to acquire Infratil via a scheme of arrangement. The most recent and revised proposal implied a total offer value of NZ$7.43 per Infratil share, based on a NZ$7.43 closing price per Trustpower share as at 8 December 2020. This proposal represented a 22.2% premium to the 8 December 2020 Infratil closing share price.

The Board formed a Committee of Independent Directors and engaged legal (MinterEllisonRuddWatts) and financial (Goldman Sachs) advisors to assist in the assessment of the proposals. The Board considered the proposals’ valuations and structures and unanimously rejected both as materially undervaluing Infratil’s high quality and unique portfolio of assets on a control basis. The Board is focused on the best interests of shareholders and no action is required by shareholders in relation to AustralianSuper’s rejected proposals.

Some commentators have suggested the Board should engage with AustralianSuper to determine their capacity to pay. The Board is not obliged to entertain unsolicited proposals that materially undervalue the portfolio and any bidder will need to put forward a compelling proposition to warrant full engagement. As noted, the Board believes that the AustralianSuper proposal undervalues Infratil and we will ensure we make further information available to assist shareholders ultimately reach their own views on value.

Final thoughts

Much of the recent commentary revealed how many regard Infratil as one of New Zealand’s best performing listed investment companies with a range of exceptional, high quality assets. Infratil has returned an average annualised shareholder return after tax and fees in excess of 18% since inception (including reinvested dividends). Over the decade Infratil’s shareholder return at a $7.00 share price is 21.8% per annum. By any measure, this is an excellent return for shareholders and one that reflects the advantages of our long-term approach to ownership, and a desire to have meaningful influence over the businesses we invest in. This is one reason why Infratil is such an attractive asset to bidders who would have to invest much time and energy to pull together a comparable portfolio of assets.

As we look to 2021, we are encouraged by the recovery we are seeing in the economy both locally and globally. We remain confident about the thematics that are driving our capital allocation; communications and digital infrastructure, decarbonisation and aging populations, and look forward to a successful 2021.

The Board and I wish you a safe and happy holiday period.

Kind regards


Mark Tume
Chairman of the Board
22 December 2020

More information can be found at https://infratil.com/ "

And I agree :t_up::t_up::t_up:

[bull....]

i agree ift is a well company and has delivered great returns to s/h. lets hope they remain nz owned

[kiora]

Lets hope so.
Likely to be dependent on OIO ,Fisher Funds & ACC
One would hope either /or can block any possibility of IFT going overseas

[macduffy]

The Foreign Investment Board of Australia granted its approval on 18 December paving the way for completion of the purchase before the end of 2020;

Good news re the Qscan acquisition.

[dreamcatcher]

Very profitable hold and SP certainly rocketing.

Back in the bottom drawer this goes as uninterested in selling

[Beagle]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976517991/records-tumble-as-nzx50-cracks-13-000.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Records+tumble+as+NZX50+cracks+13%2C0 00

Santa Claws rally. Congrats to long term Infratil shareholders. Its never been my thing but if you've held for the long run, well done.

[RTM]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976517991/records-tumble-as-nzx50-cracks-13-000.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Records+tumble+as+NZX50+cracks+13%2C0 00

Santa Claws rally. Congrats to long term Infratil shareholders. Its never been my thing but if you've held for the long run, well done.

"two outa three aint bad"
https://youtu.be/k5hWWe-ts2s

[kiora]

"Since November, the rally has been supported by inflows into clean energy ETF funds as well – don’t fight passive fund flows"
"In summary, we are confident the trend towards renewables with a greater focus on ESG and the carbon footprint of stocks has only just begun. Having an over-weight towards the sector has paid dividends in recent times and ESG considerations are becoming a real risk factor to consider when investing in stock markets."
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976517989/renewables-power-to-new-highs.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+25+Dec+ 2020

[kiora]

More investment in to this theme
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-friedland-spac-readies-funds-184736091.html

[ratkin]

"Since November, the rally has been supported by inflows into clean energy ETF funds as well – don’t fight passive fund flows"
"In summary, we are confident the trend towards renewables with a greater focus on ESG and the carbon footprint of stocks has only just begun. Having an over-weight towards the sector has paid dividends in recent times and ESG considerations are becoming a real risk factor to consider when investing in stock markets."
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976517989/renewables-power-to-new-highs.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+25+Dec+ 2020

Yes, Twenty to Fifteen years ago the sector to get into was the aging demographic, care homes etc. The next Fifteen to Twenty years is all going to be about saving the planet.

[Davexl]

More investment in to this theme
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-friedland-spac-readies-funds-184736091.html

Yes, esp Nickel & Aluminium esp High Purity Alumina (HPA) ?

(sorry, slightly off topic of IFT)

[Southern Lad]

IFT has released an announcement to the ASX this morning with an increase in the assessed independent valuation at 31 December 2020 of their 48.1% shareholding in CDC. This shows an increase since 30 September 2020 of c.$500m to a range of NZ$2.164b to NZ$2.478b.

This results in an increase in the Morrison & Co international portfolio annual incentive fee of c.$90m from that accured at 30 September 2020.

[Joshuatree]

Wow, nice work/reward if you can get it. Total International Annual Incentive Fee is now $147.6 million,!!:ohmy:

[Ggcc]

Whatever we think the market likes it so far. Only on small turnover though. Au$7.30

[winner69]

Wow, nice work/reward if you can get it. Total International Annual Incentive Fee is now $147.6 million,!!:ohmy:




ACC will not be happy with that

They think the whole incentive thing lacks transparency

But a good lurk for Morrison & Co

[kiora]

Yes ,a good lurk for Morrison & Co

Why would ACC complain?. IFT investment returns far outperform ACC investment returns.
Maybe they should contract it out to Morrison & Co?

What would the direct cost to IFT if the management was brought in house?
Direct costs & incentives?
I imagine very difficult to procure the right staff and they would require quite an incentive?
Would IFT perform just as well?

Why change the structure if its not broken?
My understanding is incentive fee paid over 3 years?

[Balance]

Yes ,a good lurk for Morrison & Co

Why would ACC complain?. IFT investment returns far outperform ACC investment returns.
Maybe they should contract it out to Morrison & Co?

What would the direct cost to IFT if the management was brought in house?
Direct costs & incentives?
I imagine very difficult to procure the right staff and they would require quite an incentive?
Would IFT perform just as well?

Why change the structure if its not broken?
My understanding is incentive fee paid over 3 years?

Agreed.

Pay for performance rather than the way ACC executives & fund managers are paid - big salaries irrespective of performances.

[kiora]

IFT has released an announcement to the ASX this morning with an increase in the assessed independent valuation at 31 December 2020 of their 48.1% shareholding in CDC. This shows an increase since 30 September 2020 of c.$500m to a range of NZ$2.164b to NZ$2.478b.

This results in an increase in the Morrison & Co international portfolio annual incentive fee of c.$90m from that accured at 30 September 2020.

"Assessed" value now nearly 5X original investment in 2016 of $A420 with plenty of runway ahead.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/282620

[kiora]

I have been postulating on a valuation of vodafone NZ shareholding since the renewed interest in CDC & Tilt valuations
What do others suggest?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/vodafone-nz-sold-to-infratil-brookfield-for-34b/LXVMKRCTM7H5F7FS5BGPZ
Vodafone NZ saddled with $1.4 b NZ debt
IFT investment " $400m by issuing new shares, with the balance of its contribution met through its existing debt facilities."
"According to Vodafone Group, the deal was struck at an implied multiple of 7.3 times adjusted March-year earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation and 16.2 times adjusted operating free cash flow.

It said the New Zealand business had revenue of $1.99b in the year to March 31, adjusted ebitda of $463 million, capital expenditure of $253m and an adjusted operating free cash flow of $210m."
V NZ EBITA $463 NZ m
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SPARK-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6492600/financials/
Spark NZ valued at around 9 x EBITA, capitalized at $9 b NZ

Does this make Vodafone NZ worth around $4.16 b NZ or more?
If it was $2 b NZ for1/2 share, uplift in IFT share $1b NZ, triple the equity IFT invested?

[Waltzing]

Perhaps Mr SNOP will run the numbers if we are lucky.

[Dlownz]

Infratil bid: AustralianSuper faces competition from new contender - report
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12416286
Interesting developments.
Sorry its premium for those that dont have it

[Ggcc]

Infratil bid: AustralianSuper faces competition from new contender - report
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12416286
Interesting developments.
Sorry its premium for those that dont have it
How much more can be offered to make everyone happy

[Dlownz]

How much more can be offered to make everyone happy

I'd say $9.50
But there's still no way the infratil board are letting go of this cash cow. There's hasn't even been a acknowledgement of this morning heralds article. Which to me is probably nzx announcement material.

[Swala]

Infratil bid: AustralianSuper faces competition from new contender - report
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12416286
Interesting developments.
Sorry its premium for those that dont have it
Could you provide a brief precise of the article if possible?

[winner69]

Could you provide a brief precise of the article if possible?


Speculation of 2 big funds (one being OzSuper) making a joint offer

[Dlownz]

Or a seperate offer

[ados_nz]

There's a thread across on HC that has a copy paste of the Australia today articles.

TL;DR 1 = Speculation AustralianSuper, could be about to face competition over its $NZ5.4 billion ($5.1bn) bid for Infratil with talk in the market another fund is preparing a rival offer (IFM or IFM x AustraliaSuper deal).

TL;DR 2 = First round bids for the Tilt Renewables stake were due on Friday January 22 and DataRoom understands that the groups that have put forward offers include AGL Energy and Queensland Investment Corporation through their Powering Australia Renewables Fund (PARF).This is along with Canadian pension fund CDPQ and New Zealand’s Mercury Energy.

[Waltzing]

surprised the Aussi funds havnt bought out the NZ generators bit like a bank take over for the dividends. Suppose they dont like the statue reg's.

[Greekwatchdog]

They can't as Government owns Majority of sum of these.

[Sir Ten]

Market not ascribing much probability to this occurring... however, I do wonder whether there's any way of a potential purchaser been able to avoid having to pay Morrison & Co the PV of 5 years of the IFT mandate management fee?

Regardless, I suspect Morrison & Co (and their lawyers) will be re-reading their mandate agreement several times over...

[Jaa]

surprised the Aussi funds havnt bought out the NZ generators bit like a bank take over for the dividends. Suppose they dont like the statue reg's.

Don't give National any ideas next time they are in power :eek2:

[Ggcc]

Climbing high and fast again

[Dlownz]

The next offers going to be a goodie

[NOCASH]

C. $8.20 ; $8.40 bid coming...

[Southern Lad]

IFM has launched an A$8b offer for a 22.69% stake in Spanish energy company Naturgy:

https://www.reuters.com/article/naturgy-ma-ifm-idUSL1N2K10FH

Do they have plenty of cash to spend or does this mean their rumoured IFT bid is off?

[Dlownz]

I'd say theirs is a joint bid for infratil. So still plenty of cash. The next offer for infratil will be around the 6.5 billion mark. Maybe 7.

[kiora]

So $9.10 - $9.80/share Dlownz?
"LONDON/BOSTON (Reuters) - Larry Fink, chief executive of the world's biggest asset manager BlackRock, warned the companies it invests in on Tuesday they will need to show a game plan for surviving in a world aiming for net-zero carbon emissions by mid-century.

In his annual letter to the management of companies across the world, Fink said they would also need to make clear how the plan is integrated into the company's long-term strategy and reviewed by the board.

To help investors prepare their portfolios for the transition to a net-zero economy, Fink flagged a number of fresh steps the asset manager would take, including, where possible, publishing scores for how its equity and bond funds are positioned to adapt to global temperature changes.

The focus on companies' net-zero strategies comes as policymakers and campaigners push asset managers to do more to hold companies to account over their climate plans, ahead of the next round of global climate talks in Scotland later this year.

With $8.7 trillion in assets under management, mainly in passive funds, BlackRock has a significant stake in most large U.S. corporations and in many in other countries, giving it much influence over their decisions.

"The world is moving to net zero, and BlackRock believes that our clients are best served by being at the forefront of that transition," Fink said.

"We are carbon neutral today in our own operations and are committed to supporting the goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 or sooner. No company can easily plan over 30 years, but we believe all companies – including BlackRock – must begin to address the transition to net zero today."

Last month BlackRock called for companies to lay out their plans to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, but Fink's widely-read annual letter will draw more investor attention to the priorities."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrocks-fink-warns-companies-show-123342917.html

Hard to not argue that this is where investments are heading?

IFT has a great head start in this with a long runway ahead of it.

Hold on tight is my view.

[kiora]

So $9.10 - $9.80/share Dlownz?
"LONDON/BOSTON (Reuters) - Larry Fink, chief executive of the world's biggest asset manager BlackRock, warned the companies it invests in on Tuesday they will need to show a game plan for surviving in a world aiming for net-zero carbon emissions by mid-century.

In his annual letter to the management of companies across the world, Fink said they would also need to make clear how the plan is integrated into the company's long-term strategy and reviewed by the board.

To help investors prepare their portfolios for the transition to a net-zero economy, Fink flagged a number of fresh steps the asset manager would take, including, where possible, publishing scores for how its equity and bond funds are positioned to adapt to global temperature changes.

The focus on companies' net-zero strategies comes as policymakers and campaigners push asset managers to do more to hold companies to account over their climate plans, ahead of the next round of global climate talks in Scotland later this year.

With $8.7 trillion in assets under management, mainly in passive funds, BlackRock has a significant stake in most large U.S. corporations and in many in other countries, giving it much influence over their decisions.

"The world is moving to net zero, and BlackRock believes that our clients are best served by being at the forefront of that transition," Fink said.

"We are carbon neutral today in our own operations and are committed to supporting the goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 or sooner. No company can easily plan over 30 years, but we believe all companies – including BlackRock – must begin to address the transition to net zero today."

Last month BlackRock called for companies to lay out their plans to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, but Fink's widely-read annual letter will draw more investor attention to the priorities."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrocks-fink-warns-companies-show-123342917.html

Hard to not argue that this is where investments are heading?

IFT has a great head start in this with a long runway ahead of it.

Hold on tight is my view.

We have already had an inkling where all this is heading with our gentailers.

[Dlownz]

So $9.10 - $9.80/share Dlownz?
"LONDON/BOSTON (Reuters) - Larry Fink, chief executive of the world's biggest asset manager BlackRock, warned the companies it invests in on Tuesday they will need to show a game plan for surviving in a world aiming for net-zero carbon emissions by mid-century.

In his annual letter to the management of companies across the world, Fink said they would also need to make clear how the plan is integrated into the company's long-term strategy and reviewed by the board.

To help investors prepare their portfolios for the transition to a net-zero economy, Fink flagged a number of fresh steps the asset manager would take, including, where possible, publishing scores for how its equity and bond funds are positioned to adapt to global temperature changes.

The focus on companies' net-zero strategies comes as policymakers and campaigners push asset managers to do more to hold companies to account over their climate plans, ahead of the next round of global climate talks in Scotland later this year.

With $8.7 trillion in assets under management, mainly in passive funds, BlackRock has a significant stake in most large U.S. corporations and in many in other countries, giving it much influence over their decisions.

"The world is moving to net zero, and BlackRock believes that our clients are best served by being at the forefront of that transition," Fink said.

"We are carbon neutral today in our own operations and are committed to supporting the goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 or sooner. No company can easily plan over 30 years, but we believe all companies – including BlackRock – must begin to address the transition to net zero today."

Last month BlackRock called for companies to lay out their plans to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, but Fink's widely-read annual letter will draw more investor attention to the priorities."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrocks-fink-warns-companies-show-123342917.html

Hard to not argue that this is where investments are heading?

IFT has a great head start in this with a long runway ahead of it.

Hold on tight is my view.

We have already had an inkling where all this is heading with our gentailers.

At a offer of 6.4 bill. That would equate to 8.80 ish a share

[kiora]

Chinese whispers I've heard says $1.00 higher than that

[777]

NewstalkZB. Heather du P to interview IFT boss after 6pm. ie if she has time from moaning about the Gummit and health boss.

[kiora]

NewstalkZB. Heather du P to interview IFT boss after 6pm. ie if she has time from moaning about the Gummit and health boss.

Discussing Tend, exponential growth opportunity. Tend not in IFT stable

IFT BB expanding again, the trend is our friend
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=NZ%3AIFT&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=7%2F21%2F2020&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=5&maval=9&uf=8&lf=1&lf2=2&lf3=512&type=2&style=320&size=2&x=50&y=7&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=10

[777]

The last couple of minutes was about the offer for IFT.

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/heather-du-plessis-allan-drive/audio/marko-bogoievski-infratil-ceo-joins-board-of-tend-as-it-closes-15-million-capital-raise/

[kiora]

I thought Marko answered that Q well 777. He said it is not up to IFT board to put a $ value on any offer.

[Ggcc]

I thought Marko answered that Q well 777. He said it is not up to IFT board to put a $ value on any offer.

He also said the offer was significantly undervaluing Infratil's assets....... How much higher do they see fair value, let alone a premium?? $12 per share

[Dlownz]

Did I miss something with this drop

[kiora]

Drop on lower than average volume.
Main thing is that the rise from $5 wasn't missed !

I'm expecting plenty of volatility ahead.

[Dlownz]

Drop on lower than average volume.
Main thing is that the rise from $5 wasn't missed !

I'm expecting plenty of volatility ahead.
I was wondering if there had been news of the takeover I'd missed. Couldnt find anything.

[kiora]

Nothing announced but Bull has mentioned some hedge funds needing to liquidate some positions.
I wouldn't be surprised if drop was due to this.

"Normal" volatility ?

[macduffy]

I hope it means an end to takeover talk. IFT is one of my biggest and best performing stocks over an extended period. I don't fancy having to replace it, however attractive a takeover price might be.

[kiora]

Nor me
I am not interested in buying a Lamba :)

[ratkin]

I hope it means an end to takeover talk. IFT is one of my biggest and best performing stocks over an extended period. I don't fancy having to replace it, however attractive a takeover price might be.

Yeah but you also do not want it back down at Four dollars again

[macduffy]

Yeah but you also do not want it back down at Four dollars again

Now, that would be a BUY signal!

[peat]

New CEO not remunerated by the company itself !!! ??? What about aligning of interests huh?

"Boyes will not be an independent director. He will not be paid fees in his capacity as a director or receive any remuneration from Infratil for his role as CEO but will be paid by Morrison & Co, the company said."


Hello everyone I'm back from the dead.

[huxley]

New CEO not remunerated by the company itself !!! ??? What about aligning of interests huh?

"Boyes will not be an independent director. He will not be paid fees in his capacity as a director or receive any remuneration from Infratil for his role as CEO but will be paid by Morrison & Co, the company said."


Hello everyone I'm back from the dead.


Apart from the independent directors, does anyone actually get paid directly from IFT?

[kiora]

IFT not a simple business to understand and manage so my view it is great to see someone being promoted from within that already is familiar with the business model and mechanics
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/ift.nzx-367308/

[TLM54]

Guidance updated today

https://infratil.com/assets/Uploads/1,-Portfolio-Update-and-Outlook-Infratil-Investor-Day-16-February-2022.pdf

[RTM]

Thanks...do you know what it was before ?


Guidance updated today

https://infratil.com/assets/Uploads/1,-Portfolio-Update-and-Outlook-Infratil-Investor-Day-16-February-2022.pdf

[BlackPeter]

Guidance updated today

https://infratil.com/assets/Uploads/1,-Portfolio-Update-and-Outlook-Infratil-Investor-Day-16-February-2022.pdf

Stupid question - what is the difference between EBITDAF and EBITDA?

Infratil forecasts now an EBITDAF of 440 to 470 million.

Analysts expected an EBITDA of 515 million.

Is this the same with the F worth negative 60 million or is this a downgrade?

[winner69]

I’ll leave it to you to work out

Proportionate EBITDAF represents Infratil’s share of the consolidated net earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, financial derivative movements, revaluations, gains or losses on the sales of investments, and excludes the impact of International Portfolio Incentive Fees. Proportionate EBITDAF replaces Underlying EBITDAF as management’s preferred measure for measuring the underlying performance of 7 Infratil’s portfolio companies.

[Bjauck]

Edited.
Irrelevant.

[kiora]

All tikity boo
https://infratil.com/for-investors/company-presentations/
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/infratil-nudges-up-guidance-new-boss-drops-strong-hints-at-takeover-targets/N3PBHTKW7LHXATNLXYWI2PWFCI/

Potentially great returns from Longroad & Galileo

[Ggcc]

Guess no takeover offer coming anytime soon, or traders have become impatient.

[macduffy]

Guess no takeover offer coming anytime soon, or traders have become impatient.

Good. We don't want some of our best assets sold off at bargain prices!

[Ggcc]

Good. We don't want some of our best assets sold off at bargain prices!
Agreed and hope to add more when funds become available again.

[Punts]

Read on one of the other sites last night Aussie super was pulling out. Link got taken down pretty quick. Seems to be correct. Will this lower the price to pre December floating around the $5 mark next week? Still will be good to keep this gem in kiwi hands.
Disc: Long time holder but sold out before Christmas.

[maclir]

I'm assuming the takeover talk is over for now with the sale of Tilt. What will IFT do with their proceeds? I wouldn't mind a special dividend myself.

[kiora]

NAV now $8.71 by my estimates less performance fees(Is that around $317m & $0.44/share?)
I would prefer them paying off debt and reinvesting the proceeds maybe Longroad & Galileo?

[kiora]

Note how all stakeholders in transactions with IFT along its way enter in to a win /win
https://www.pressreader.com/category/business/en/nz

[kiora]

Note how all stakeholders in transactions with IFT along its way enter in to a win /win
https://www.pressreader.com/category/business/en/nz

[maclir]

Someone doesn't believe in the tilt 'dividend', millions of shares traded at $6.95

[Greekwatchdog]

Its FTSE Indexing..PEB and another that I cant recall involved as well as IFT

[maclir]

Thanks for that. Seems a bit counter intuitive to me.

[artemis]

Paywalled article by in the Herald today, re Jason Boyes stepping up to CEO. Couple of brief excerpts ....

"On the one hand he could - through no fault of his own - become one of the shortest-serving chief executives in NZX history, while on the other, he could find himself in charge of deploying a vast sum of money at a time when valuations of the types of assets Infratil owns and invests in are changing at unprecedented speed."

" ...we thought we were sharp before AusSuper came along, but we're laser focused now, no doubt about it."

[Bjauck]

Posted to the Wrong thread!

[ratkin]

Sold out of these a month or Two back for 7.40 odd, as so no real reason to continue holding. The upside had materialised so locked it in.

Not been paying attention since. Are the Aussies still buying them out? As noticed price starting to drift downwards

[Southern Lad]

ASX announcement tonight advising that PowerAR and Mercury have increased the consideration in the TLT scheme of Arrangement from $7.80 to $8.10 per share. IFT's gross proceeds increase by $74 m to $2,000 m. This also increases the Morrison & Co management fee by $11 m.

[longy]

ASX announcement tonight advising that PowerAR and Mercury have increased the consideration in the TLT scheme of Arrangement from $7.80 to $8.10 per share. IFT's gross proceeds increase by $74 m to $2,000 m. This also increases the Morrison & Co management fee by $11 m.

I am trying to understand this transaction.. So what does this mean for IFT's shareholder? Could someone please explain it to me? Many thanks.

[clearasmud]

60 million, current market cap of IFT nearly 6 billion so 1%= 6-7 cents per share

[maclir]

Current market cap is NZ$5b, at $7/share. Not sure what that factors in for Tilt. Valuation of Tilt asset in last report was I think $780m, current offers value this asset at $2b.

[huxley]

So what are we thinking they’ll do with the incoming TLT funds? Lots of potential to invest into existing businesses but they also have a history of returning some funds via a special dividend when they exit a business.. maybe some kind of balance between the two

[Zeitgeist]

So what are we thinking they’ll do with the incoming TLT funds? Lots of potential to invest into existing businesses but they also have a history of returning some funds via a special dividend when they exit a business.. maybe some kind of balance between the two

There may be a small special dividend but I'd expect Infratil to find plenty of attractive uses for the capital. Don't forget there may be additional proceeds for Trustpower retail upcoming too. So we're talking about around up to $2.5bn of capital to deploy. The public info Infratil publish is normally a big clue on where they're headed. So in addition to the existing portfolio of renewable energy, data, aged care, and airports they are very open on the potential for healthcare, water, and waste and recycling.

[dibble]

There may be a small special dividend but I'd expect Infratil to find plenty of attractive uses for the capital. Don't forget there may be additional proceeds for Trustpower retail upcoming too. So we're talking about around up to $2.5bn of capital to deploy. The public info Infratil publish is normally a big clue on where they're headed. So in addition to the existing portfolio of renewable energy, data, aged care, and airports they are very open on the potential for healthcare, water, and waste and recycling.

I imagine the nice managers wouldnt like to return too much to shareholders, they can clip the ticket again if they reinvest.
Nice little earner they are on.

[Zeitgeist]

I imagine the nice managers wouldnt like to return too much to shareholders, they can clip the ticket again if they reinvest.
Nice little earner they are on.

Quite right. Paying fees sucks but would argue the incentives are in the right place and performance thus far justifies it. Share price has increased from mid-$1 to $7 in less than 10 years :t_up:

[macduffy]

Quite right. Paying fees sucks but would argue the incentives are in the right place and performance thus far justifies it. Share price has increased from mid-$1 to $7 in less than 10 years :t_up:

So true - and we wouldn't have had Infratil and that capital gain if it wasn't for Morrisons!

[alokdhir]

IFT started putting their money to work .

.https://www.nzx.com/announcements/371352

[lissica]

IFT started putting their money to work .

.https://www.nzx.com/announcements/371352

There will be a lot of happy radiologists out there today

[tomm]

Commerce Commission wins 'FibreX' case against Vodafone

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124973808/commerce-commission-wins-fibrex-case-against-vodafone

[fungus pudding]

Commerce Commission wins 'FibreX' case against Vodafone

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124973808/commerce-commission-wins-fibrex-case-against-vodafone


Live link.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124973808/commerce-commission-wins-fibrex-case-against-vodafone

[Bjauck]

IFT started putting their money to work .

.https://www.nzx.com/announcements/371352 Pleased with the sounds of that move.

I don’t mind paying high fees for a good job. Over the years I have held IFT, its performance has exceeded that of the NZX50 by a good margin.

It is worth posting this item (again) from December 2020.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/deficient-54-billion-bid-for-infratil-still-a-risk-for-nzx

$100 invested on listing in 1994 with all dividends and distributions reinvested would be worth about $5,500 today. I think that far exceeds the return from the NZX50 gross index.

[Jaa]

So a radiologist is worth almost $10m each?

[X-men]

Reconk the next takeover price will be at least $8 in the front?

[maclir]

From the announcement "Enterprise Value of NZ$867 million implies an EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.6-13.3x". There are 46 clinics, so an average "value" of $19m per clinic, not sure how many radiologists there are per clinic. This compares with a "value" per clinic for QScan of $11m. The interesting thing for me is the growth in revenue expected through these clinics, funded through government subsidy and medical insurance. Socialised medicine providing opportunities for capitalists!

[lissica]

So a radiologist is worth almost $10m each?

Looking at the share register, looks like most radiologists own either 1% or 2% shares.

Still a pretty tidy sum. I wonder what they paid to buy in?

[macduffy]

Looking at the share register, looks like most radiologists own either 1% or 2% shares.

Still a pretty tidy sum. I wonder what they paid to buy in?

Are we talking radiologists' shareholdings? Or the price that IFT is paying per "working radiologist" ? I thought it was the latter.

[lissica]

Are we talking radiologists' shareholdings? Or the price that IFT is paying per "working radiologist" ? I thought it was the latter.

I was talking shareholdings. After all, you don't value a business by the number of staff that work there.

There are also radiographers and admin.

[macduffy]

I was talking shareholdings. After all, you don't value a business by the number of staff that work there.

There are also radiographers and admin.

No, but the cost per radiologist's output/revenue contribution might be a useful check against overpaying for the asset.

[Jaa]

Are we talking radiologists' shareholdings? Or the price that IFT is paying per "working radiologist" ? I thought it was the latter.

I was talking about the cost per working radiologist of which Infratil said there were 90. With an enterprise value of $867m seems like an incredible price to pay to me. I am sure there are other staff, expensive equipment and government contracts but these can move over time or become obsolete.

Lissica's point is valid too, what's to stop a number of those radiologists that had 1-2% shareholdings leaving and investing their proceeds in founding a competitor?

[maclir]

Lissica's point is valid too, what's to stop a number of those radiologists that had 1-2% shareholdings leaving and investing their proceeds in founding a competitor?

Scale. Their retention of 40% shareholding - IFT's track record promises future rewards. Possibly non-compete.

[lissica]

I was talking about the cost per working radiologist of which Infratil said there were 90.


The majority of their staff would be radiographers/sonographers.





With an enterprise value of $867m seems like an incredible price to pay to me. I am sure there are other staff, expensive equipment and government contracts but these can move over time or become obsolete.

Lissica's point is valid too, what's to stop a number of those radiologists that had 1-2% shareholdings leaving and investing their proceeds in founding a competitor?

Likely will be non-competition clauses, and also the minority stake as disincentive. They also have a pretty wide footprint- so easiest to refer to for convenience.

[lissica]

No, but the cost per radiologist's output/revenue contribution might be a useful check against overpaying for the asset.

They would be salaried or contracted, but the business isn't just reporting on imaging, they actually do the imaging.

[X-men]

After fees and $350m for pacific radiology....infratil still has around $1.5b from selling Tilt.

$3billion sales... infratil owns 66%

Plenty great assets waiting to be bought....wonder what else they are going to buy? Or are they paying off the debts?

[BlackPeter]

After fees and $350m for pacific radiology....infratil still has around $1.5b from selling Tilt.

$3billion sales... infratil owns 66%

Plenty great assets waiting to be bought....wonder what else they are going to buy? Or are they paying off the debts?

Maybe an opportunity to pay the management fees ;)?

[X-men]

To be an excellent company, they need a great management. U pay peanut, u got monkeys to run the company. Recent example: Aunty Jayne from ATM

[dibble]

U pay peanut, u got monkeys to run the company.

Got any reliable, unbiased evidence to support that outdated mantra? I recall John Key bleating it just before appointing that nincompoop to head the christchurch rebuild thingy (he was fired not loo long after). Google how much that fonterra CEO fellow (Theo??) was paid whilst he quietly demolished farmers' wealth.

I'm keeping my IFT shares but I have no idea if the mgmt represent value. Will they give it all back if the share price plummets? And if they took half as much or twice as much would I admire them less or more? Who knows and that's largely the point, there is no control group, no reliable measure. Just vested interests making broad pronouncements.

[winner69]

To be an excellent company, they need a great management. U pay peanut, u got monkeys to run the company. Recent example: Aunty Jayne from ATM

Jayne wasn’t paid peanuts and she was no ‘monkey’

[macduffy]

Once again. If there hadn't been Morrisons, there wouldn't be Infratil. If you don't like the management terms, sell the shares. I'm keeping mine - which have performed royally, despite the fees, since the IPO.

[X-men]

Jayne wasn’t paid peanuts and she was no ‘monkey’


No, she is baboon ..hahah

[Brain]

Once again. If there hadn't been Morrisons, there wouldn't be Infratil. If you don't like the management terms, sell the shares. I'm keeping mine - which have performed royally, despite the fees, since the IPO.

I agree - I am Ok with their fees - The Morrisons create shareholder value. We should reserve our criticism for those that have destroyed shareholder wealth. Intueri ,CBL , Snakk ,Veritas,QEX ...........etc.

[winner69]

Jenny Ruth has good piece in Businessdesk about the perils of dealing with govt agencies.



Infratil can't have got the memo: beware of doing business with government agencies.

It plans to pay up to $350 million for a majority stake in Pacific Radiology, a company that depends on ACC for 34% of its revenue and on district health boards for another 15%.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/opinion/infratil-and-the-perils-of-doing-business-with-government-agencies
Might be psywalled

[X-men]

I don't see it as an issue really. With or without acc or district health board ... people still need the service.

Acc paid.. because work related injuries....it won't stop unless workers stop paying acc levies

Health is more important... people will pay...no other services that can provide you x-ray...utrasound....

[kiora]

Jenny Ruth has good piece in Businessdesk about the perils of dealing with govt agencies.



Infratil can't have got the memo: beware of doing business with government agencies.

It plans to pay up to $350 million for a majority stake in Pacific Radiology, a company that depends on ACC for 34% of its revenue and on district health boards for another 15%.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/opinion/infratil-and-the-perils-of-doing-business-with-government-agencies
Might be psywalled

Ha ha W69

Morison & Co
"

Public Infrastructure Partners I Fund
The first Public Infrastructure Partners (PIP) Fund raised in 2009 focused on availability-based social infrastructure PPP's in New Zealand. Morrison & Co worked with central, regional and local government agencies, to identify partnership opportunities to develop social infrastructure such as educational, healthcare and student accommodation facilities. These investments are typically structured as long-term concession arrangements under which the PIP Fund will finance, build and maintain assets, for a 25-35 year term, before transferring them back to public ownership at the concession conclusion. Fund investments include:

NZ Schools I PPP

NZ Schools II PPP

Melbourne Convention Centre PPP

Bendigo Hospital key health worker accommodation

University of Wollongong Student Accommodation

Auckland Prison PPP



Public Infrastructure Partners II
PIP Fund II was the follow-on fund with similar investment criteria to PIP Fund I. PIP Fund II had a focus on developing availability-based and contemporary social infrastructure working with local, regional and central New Zealand government agencies.

The Fund reached a final close of $115m and was fully invested in 2018:

Pūhoi to Warkworth PPP Road

NZ Schools II PPP

NZ Schools III PPP

Akoranga Student Village

Waikeria Prison PPP


Public Infrastructure Partners III
PIP Fund III is a follow-on fund with similar investment criteria to PIP Fund I and PIP Fund II. PIP Fund III has a focus on developing social infrastructure in New Zealand and Australia.

The Fund reached first close of $100m in January 2018. The Fund's first investment is the Waikeria Prison PPP."

Yes it is paywalled
Did Jenny Ruth discuss the benefits of doing business with govt departments?
I would expect that IFT/Morrison & Co have done a fare bit of due diligence on this

[mondograss]

The risk with dealing with public healthcare in NZ (Aus is a very different model) is not that the govt will pull the contracts or decide to do the work itself, (it simply doesn't have the capacity) rather that they might not want to pay what the service is really worth and any revenue growth from public subsidies is likely to be a lot lower than from private patients. But it would likely give you a stable revenue base. Besides which, there's not that many private providers in NZ, Auckland only has a couple being Auckland Radiology Group and Ascot, so you do have a bit of pricing power. The equipment is ridiculously expensive these days so the barriers to entry are very high unless a large healthcare provider like Southern Cross decides that it want's to get into the game.

[bullfrog]

I don't see it as an issue really. With or without acc or district health board ... people still need the service.

Acc paid.. because work related injuries....it won't stop unless workers stop paying acc levies

Health is more important... people will pay...no other services that can provide you x-ray...utrasound....

Medical Imaging has huge growth potential IMO. With the increased use of MRI and 3D body scans reducing uncertainties and risk, it's a nice move by IFT. It's incredible the imaging that can be produced nowadays when compared with 10 years ago.

"The New Zealand medical imaging services market was valued at $285 million in 2017, and is estimated to reach at $500 million by 2025, registering a CAGR of 7.3% from 2018 to 2025."


https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/new-zealand-medical-imaging-services-market

[X-men]

Trading closed to offered price of $7.43...

What happened if the takeover is cancelled?

As I don't really think our office will approve it due to sensitive infratil assets

[Swala]

Trading closed to offered price of $7.43...

What happened if the takeover is cancelled?

As I don't really think our office will approve it due to sensitive infratil assets


I think the takeover is history. At least that whole exercise resulted in the share price rising to a level a little closer to it's true value.
Happy holder for the long term.

[X-men]

Well u never know.... fundies might sel down n buy back. .if the takeover is over...then we will see selling down to$6 ish?

[Swala]

Well u never know.... fundies might sel down n buy back. .if the takeover is over...then we will see selling down to$6 ish?

If that happens, I for one will be buying more!

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Pacific Radiology acquisition goes unconditional:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/372152

[X-men]

well...takeover is on the drain...back to reality now....

[Balance]

well...takeover is on the drain...back to reality now....

But have the management company not done well from the 'attempted takeover'?

$223m incentive fee even when the company reported an operating loss!

[X-men]

that can be forgiven as they just sold Tilt and got cash almost 2B!

[Felonius]

But have the management company not done well from the 'attempted takeover'?

$223m incentive fee even when the company reported an operating loss!

We can count ourselves lucky to have Infratil management working for the benefit of us all.

The ongoing growth & success of "private equity" which can only be accessed by institutions and wealthy people means that the opportunities provided by many of the businesses which Infratil invests in are not available to the average investor.

Yes the incentives seem way too high to me and the average person, but Wow !! what enormous wins they have enabled with Tilt and Canberra Data Centres.

I am delighted to be a shareholder.

[peat]

I'm not sure that I agree that proportionate (or underlying for that matter) EBITDAF is that useful when it is not correlated to Net Profit.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I watched the earnings stream today. Seems pretty clear to me that they will be issuing a profit upgrade as soon as the Pacific Radiology deal closes (due to close by end of month).

[peat]

I watched the earnings stream today. Seems pretty clear to me that they will be issuing a profit upgrade as soon as the Pacific Radiology deal closes (due to close by end of month).

but they didnt give profit guidance - only Proportionate and Underlying EBITDAF

[winner69]

I’m surprised they still have Retire Australia

Was on the blocks a year or so ago

[peat]

At least I am not the only one confuzzled.

Infratil’s ‘bit of a beast’ result | BusinessDesk (https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/infratils-bit-of-a-beast-result) paywalled

Infratil today delivered what may prove to be the most confusing set of accounts in the current mini-earnings season...

you gotta wonder who this is all for eh shareholders?

[BlackPeter]

At least I am not the only one confuzzled.

Infratil’s ‘bit of a beast’ result | BusinessDesk (https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/infratils-bit-of-a-beast-result) paywalled

Infratil today delivered what may prove to be the most confusing set of accounts in the current mini-earnings season...

you gotta wonder who this is all for eh shareholders?

Well, sort of wondering whether they jumped a bit too early onto the green bubble. Always safer to wait for the deflation first ;): Anyway - huge management incentives don't seem to make the books prettier - they clearly need for the future some more creative accountants.

Edit / amendment: should have read the presentation before commenting. I thought the Tilt deal does not go ahead, but apparently it is still in the wings. If it does, than they might well sell their green investment at the right time (which would not be the first time for them) - which would be good for shareholders :):

Crossing fingers ...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Well, sort of wondering whether they jumped a bit too early onto the green bubble. Always safer to wait for the deflation first ;): Anyway - huge management incentives don't seem to make the books prettier - they clearly need for the future some more creative accountants.

Edit / amendment: should have read the presentation before commenting. I thought the Tilt deal does not go ahead, but apparently it is still in the wings. If it does, than they might well sell their green investment at the right time (which would not be the first time for them) - which would be good for shareholders :):

Crossing fingers ...

I was actually very impressed with the performance of Long Road Energy that they described during the earnings call - its been a very successful investment and their pipeline of projects is growing rapidly. its an excellent business model that particular business has, with so much hunger for Green Energy generation that many of the projects can be sold off (either fully or partly) to other entities at large premiums even before construction is finished.

[BlackPeter]

I was actually very impressed with the performance of Long Road Energy that they described during the earnings call - its been a very successful investment and their pipeline of projects is growing rapidly. its an excellent business model that particular business has, with so much hunger for Green Energy generation that many of the projects can be sold off (either fully or partly) to other entities at large premiums even before construction is finished.

I guess its fair to say that Infratil used to own infrastructure with a reliable income stream. Sure - they bought from time to time as well a dud (like some European airports, NZ bus), but overall they owned assets which just made money come rain or sunshine - and they still used to appreciate.

These days it feels more they gamble and ride on market hype. Sure - their assets are all rather essential and they do have a value, but that's often little earnings and plenty of market hype. Buy them early and try to flog them off before the bubble bursts. Admittedly - it often worked for Infratil, Z energy springs to mind - and if Tilt works out as well, than this will be in my view another master piece in speculation.

Good for shareholders as long as the gamble works out, but clearly - while management always benefits from the huge speculation gains, shareholders will need to carry as well the risk if things turn at some stage pear shaped. Imagine market paying for Tilt only something like a PE of 15 or 20 instead of the more than 40 it offers now. At the end they just resemble a bunch of windmills, which are easy to replicate and hard to scale. There is no guarantee that radiology, data centers, telecommunication, age care and renewables are all on a one way street to endless wealth ... in the long term they will not be more worth than a sensible multiple of their earnings potential.

I do see Infratil's current asset's at current market prices as a financial gamble - Sure - SP might go up driven by market sentiment, or it might crash down as soon as the market notices the low earnings potential of many of the assets. Earnings of the individual assets as well as of the company as a whole clearly need to improve instead of paying dividends out of share holders capital and even force share holders to pay taxes on the share holder capital they return (partially imputed dividends - lol).

Not really what conservative infrastructure investment is normally all about.

[Ggcc]

Personally I don’t mind complicated books on a business with an appreciating share price. From personal experience accountants are great a putting books together and terrible at running a business, other than their own.

[macduffy]

These days it feels more they gamble and ride on market hype. Sure - their assets are all rather essential and they do have a value, but that's often little earnings and plenty of market hype. Buy them early and try to flog them off before the bubble bursts. Admittedly - it often worked for Infratil, Z energy springs to mind - and if Tilt works out as well, than this will be in my view another master piece in speculation.

I prefer to see those examples as astute investments, taking positions in companies, adding value and on-selling.

Disc: Holding since the IPO - no complaints!

[Ggcc]

I prefer to see those examples as astute investments, taking positions in companies, adding value and on-selling.

Disc: Holding since the IPO - no complaints!
Still no complaints from either you or me as the sp keeps ticking up

[bull....]

nudging resistance at all time highs , only matter of time to charge on higher esp with billions in fire power available now thanks to tilt sale on potential purchases

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I watched the earnings stream today. Seems pretty clear to me that they will be issuing a profit upgrade as soon as the Pacific Radiology deal closes (due to close by end of month).

just like I said: Profit upgrade following closing of pacific radiology transaction:


On 19 May 2021, Infratil issued guidance for the year ended 31 March 2022 for Proportionate EBITDAF of between $470 million and $520 million (excluding Tilt Renewables and Pacific Radiology). Following completion of the Pacific Radiology acquisition, this has now been increased to between $505 million to $555 million, which includes a 10-month contribution from Pacific Radiology.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/373139

[NZSilver]

Cheers laserEye, you are on to it!

[maclir]

just like I said: Profit upgrade following closing of pacific radiology transaction:



https://www.nzx.com/announcements/373139

So $42m annualised. Not bad for year one, let's hope the Infratil magic wand does its thing in out years.

[Ggcc]

Just went to their meeting tonight in Napier.
Very interesting. Firstly they made it very clear that any money coming from the sale of Tilt would be put back into the business or a share buyback, rather than buying more new businesses outside their industry they are currently invested in. No mention of a special dividend. Historically they said it took a while before people saw the value in CDC and only recently have people seen the value. CDC is currently valued at its future pipeline value. So expects to grow its profit this year by roughly 15% and expects 40% there after when running at full capacity. It is 30% of Infratil’s portfolio and growing rapidly. So CDC might be a 5 billion dollar version of Tilt in a few years

There was a lot of talk about carbon emissions and that the cost currently around $37 per tonne at market value and that the new climate commission report was sent to the government today and results should be out within the next couple of days regarding how New Zealand would need to reduce carbon emissions by 2050 to zero and that the new cost will be higher. They mentioned that the market should try to fix this and not the government by introducing no new legislation. ie the quitting of gas exploration in Taranaki resulting in Huntley power station which uses coal to power for the people. Or something similar to that. Also it was mentioned by Tim Cook that we should have finite carbon credits rather than infinite. I believe Tim Cook is involved with the climate commission.

Vodafone is currently doing really well and is in the process to simplify stuff for the end user and it will help their customer service team Greatly. They say they still have a way to go, but that they are on the right path.

The new acquisition is good with roughly 20% share in New Zealand and not really having a presence in Auckland yet so room for expansion. They expect all areas of this to expand as rehabilitation will be very important for organisations like ACC and people alike with the people over 65 to grow by 25% in the next few years.

Retire Australia had a few obstacles with covid but seems back on track with some growth in the pipeline.

Wellington airport is running at 90% of pre covid. They repaired the runway one year early, and saved 2 million from being able to do it quicker due to fewer/no flights.

Long road I feel will become a Tilt story and I feel that is where they will put the majority of funds (was not mentioned and just my personal opinion). Joe Biden has said he wants America fully green by some unimaginable date, I can’t remember when, but they want to spend $100 billion per year to make it so. Long road is currently valued around $130 million, but that is valued without future pipeline included in that valuation unlike Tilt. They believe they would get a heck of a lot more for long road now than that when including their pipeline. Let alone in 5 years time when they will be expanding rapidly with (expected) multiple contracts. They might sell that for 2 billion US in 5 years time who knows.

Anyway there was more, but those were the points I took from this meeting. Loads to digest. Great canopies as well.

[Blue Skies]

Thanks Ggcc, great summary & much appreciated.

[kiora]

+
18.8 % compounding return since listed 1994?
20 % over last 10 years
An initial investment of $100 now worth over $10,000

$45m? in cost savings in Vodafone in last year, simplified the business by eliminating 1500 different offerings
Retire Aus building Care suites, sales of units very high but need to build ahead more
Galileo built a good team up from 1 to 25 ? and ready to implement
If any share price weakness likely to introduce a share buyback that will underpin SP

[maclir]

Thanks, Ggcc. Were you undercover with those canopies? :eek2:

[Snow Leopard]

When did IFT split into identical twins ?

12559

[Ggcc]

Thanks, Ggcc. Were you undercover with those canopies? :eek2:
The server lady was a little angry, as she was saying people were greedy and eating like it was their dinner and “they were only canopies”. There were loads of pensioners there and maybe it was their weekly outing who knows lol. I tried a few and had a lovely glass of wine

[Waiuta]

Thank you for sharing Ggcc & Kiora.

[kiora]

Director buying
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/373246/347490.pdf

[bull....]

Just went to their meeting tonight in Napier.
Very interesting. Firstly they made it very clear that any money coming from the sale of Tilt would be put back into the business or a share buyback, rather than buying more new businesses outside their industry they are currently invested in. No mention of a special dividend. Historically they said it took a while before people saw the value in CDC and only recently have people seen the value. CDC is currently valued at its future pipeline value. So expects to grow its profit this year by roughly 15% and expects 40% there after when running at full capacity. It is 30% of Infratil’s portfolio and growing rapidly. So CDC might be a 5 billion dollar version of Tilt in a few years

There was a lot of talk about carbon emissions and that the cost currently around $37 per tonne at market value and that the new climate commission report was sent to the government today and results should be out within the next couple of days regarding how New Zealand would need to reduce carbon emissions by 2050 to zero and that the new cost will be higher. They mentioned that the market should try to fix this and not the government by introducing no new legislation. ie the quitting of gas exploration in Taranaki resulting in Huntley power station which uses coal to power for the people. Or something similar to that. Also it was mentioned by Tim Cook that we should have finite carbon credits rather than infinite. I believe Tim Cook is involved with the climate commission.

Vodafone is currently doing really well and is in the process to simplify stuff for the end user and it will help their customer service team Greatly. They say they still have a way to go, but that they are on the right path.

The new acquisition is good with roughly 20% share in New Zealand and not really having a presence in Auckland yet so room for expansion. They expect all areas of this to expand as rehabilitation will be very important for organisations like ACC and people alike with the people over 65 to grow by 25% in the next few years.

Retire Australia had a few obstacles with covid but seems back on track with some growth in the pipeline.

Wellington airport is running at 90% of pre covid. They repaired the runway one year early, and saved 2 million from being able to do it quicker due to fewer/no flights.

Long road I feel will become a Tilt story and I feel that is where they will put the majority of funds (was not mentioned and just my personal opinion). Joe Biden has said he wants America fully green by some unimaginable date, I can’t remember when, but they want to spend $100 billion per year to make it so. Long road is currently valued around $130 million, but that is valued without future pipeline included in that valuation unlike Tilt. They believe they would get a heck of a lot more for long road now than that when including their pipeline. Let alone in 5 years time when they will be expanding rapidly with (expected) multiple contracts. They might sell that for 2 billion US in 5 years time who knows.

Anyway there was more, but those were the points I took from this meeting. Loads to digest. Great canopies as well.

thx , i can see them using the tilt money to built a huge imaging business. fragmented market so ripe for consolidation into larger players. possible vodaphone could be sharpened up and sold ipo like they did with Z energy. dont see it as a growth vehicle long term to acheive there desired rates of return but they can acheive those rates fixing it up.

[Ggcc]

thx , i can see them using the tilt money to built a huge imaging business. fragmented market so ripe for consolidation into larger players. possible vodaphone could be sharpened up and sold ipo like they did with Z energy. dont see it as a growth vehicle long term to acheive there desired rates of return but they can acheive those rates fixing it up.
They did mention about imaging business aiming to be consolidated, so you are bang on there. With Vodafone they indicated more investment into training and software upgrades to help with customer service, also more investment into 5G and then I agree they could be floated like Z. Vodafone have been performing better with customer feedbacks, but still have a way to go.

[bull....]

ift breaking out to the upside

[Ggcc]

ift breaking out to the upside
$8 here we come

[bull....]

$8 here we come

thats my short term target. horizontal trading range 7 - 7.50 approx equals 8

[kiora]

Smart or dum money? Low volume so not smart money yet?

[bull....]

Smart or dum money? Low volume so not smart money yet?

smart money soaked all the selling up last week around 7.60 thats why the volume is light now

[kiora]

Ack I can see that now

[value_investor]

Bought these years ago in the high $2 range a long time ago and will hold for as long as possible!

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Mercury to buy Trustpowers retail business (infratil owns 51% of trust power).

potentially more cash flowing in for IFT to play with. Trust power might keep the cash influx though to build its generation capacity larger.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/374221

[huxley]

Mercury to buy Trustpowers retail business (infratil owns 51% of trust power).

potentially more cash flowing in for IFT to play with. Trust power might keep the cash influx though to build its generation capacity larger.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/374221

Reading the announcement that certainly seems to be the messaging. After selling down tilt they appear to be positioning new Trustpower as a pure play generator/ new plant developer. After the tilt experience they seems to be comfortable to manage their risk without a direct retail book.. looks positive for IFT and Trustpower shareholders although it might move them away from a bond like dividend investment into more growth, which might not align with all shareholders.. but then they don’t really matter since infratil has 51%

[kiora]

With power demand & prices likely to go up ,significantly? looks like a good move for TPW.
Just the "An electricity hedge structure has been agreed to support the customer retail demand. More details
of this are provided in the separate Investor Presentation released along with this statement. The
terms of this hedge underpin Trustpower’s earnings for the medium term and the initial price has
been set taking advantage of current firm wholesale prices."
to consider

[artemis]

SP up again today, possibly on rumour they are looking at Icon Group cancer business. Building a presence in the sector?

[Ogg]

SP up again today, possibly on rumour they are looking at Icon Group cancer business. Building a presence in the sector?

https://i.imgur.com/8pXe177.jpg

https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/companies/app/ui/pages/companies/8198444

They're making another investment in "High Performance Computing"

[NZSilver]

Why is this coming back, is there some news I'm missing?

[RTM]

Why is this coming back, is there some news I'm missing?

Not sure what you mean ? For an investor looking at a two year chart...the price seems to have been relatively stable, 690 - 740 odd for most of this year ?
Disc: Holder

[Ggcc]

Why is this coming back, is there some news I'm missing? the only news could be buy some more if you feel it is undervalued.

Disc own shares

[Pocket_Eights]

IFT have been relatively quite post their AGM, wonder what they have installed for with that pile of cash from TILT

[Mista_Trix]

Probably because it's gone nowhere for the last couple of months while everything else has jumped upwards.

[clown]

Not sure if this was disclosed already, came across this in another article.

Ironically, as Kordia pulls out of the Australian telecommunications infrastructure market, Morrison and Co is charging in.
The Infratil manager is teaming (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/morrison-co-teams-up-with-australian-investors-to-buy-into-telstras-mobile-tower-business/L46AVOVC66S3YGHYCJJCUN6IDM/) with a group of Australian investors to buy 49 per cent of Telstra's mobile towers business, which owns more than 8000 mobile towers across Australia.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/kordia-halves-in-size-as-it-sells-its-australian-arm/MRN7G2MEO2OI6VNXHWKYC5REPY/

[maclir]

Not sure if this was disclosed already, came across this in another article.

Ironically, as Kordia pulls out of the Australian telecommunications infrastructure market, Morrison and Co is charging in.
The Infratil manager is teaming (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/morrison-co-teams-up-with-australian-investors-to-buy-into-telstras-mobile-tower-business/L46AVOVC66S3YGHYCJJCUN6IDM/) with a group of Australian investors to buy 49 per cent of Telstra's mobile towers business, which owns more than 8000 mobile towers across Australia.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/kordia-halves-in-size-as-it-sells-its-australian-arm/MRN7G2MEO2OI6VNXHWKYC5REPY/



As an IFT shareholder - something to ponder "In its client newsletter, Craigs Investment Partners wrote: "We understand the return expectations for the investment sit below Infratil's 12 per cent international hurdle so was not considered for the portfolio" however it was an "impressive deal for the [Morrison & Co] team that expands their insights in [the] telco space which will no doubt influence the NZ landscape in the future."

[artemis]

NBR headline today (I don't have a subscription) -

Speculation mounts over Infratil Aussie healthcare play - M-Co and Infratil keeping mum on bid for Aussie cancer care provider.

[maclir]

NBR headline today (I don't have a subscription) -

Speculation mounts over Infratil Aussie healthcare play - M-Co and Infratil keeping mum on bid for Aussie cancer care provider.

Bubbling for a few months

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/morrison-and-co-bankers-up-for-icon-group-auction-20210623-p583ev

[Pocket_Eights]

Looks like its getting closer:
-Icon Group: Operates 30 cancer care centres across Australia as well as servicing Singapore, HK, China and Vietnam
-Asking price expected to be around A$2b
-Earns a margin of more than 20%

[maclir]

Looks like its getting closer:
-Icon Group: Operates 30 cancer care centres across Australia as well as servicing Singapore, HK, China and Vietnam
-Asking price expected to be around A$2b
-Earns a margin of more than 20%

Indicative bids close today, might be a few offers on the table.

[maclir]

IFT establishing an Asian toehold in renewables

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/378896

[BlackPeter]

IFT establishing an Asian toehold in renewables

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/378896

Huge, but very diversified and difficult market - and lets face it, Infratil has quite limited (and mixed) experiences to operate in countries other than NZ or Australia. European Airports spring to mind.

Probably a good indication for investors that board starts to feel overconfident. Time to take profits and move in an orderly fashion towards the hills?

[maclir]

Huge, but very diversified and difficult market - and lets face it, Infratil has quite limited (and mixed) experiences to operate in countries other than NZ or Australia. European Airports spring to mind.

Probably a good indication for investors that board starts to feel overconfident. Time to take profits and move in an orderly fashion towards the hills?

Possibly, but given how small the initial cap investment is I'm happy to give them the benefit of the doubt.

Long and happy holder.

[maclir]

Investor briefing here

https://infratil.com/assets/imported/nzx/Gurin-Energy-Investor-Briefing-354414.pdf

[macduffy]

Huge, but very diversified and difficult market - and lets face it, Infratil has quite limited (and mixed) experiences to operate in countries other than NZ or Australia. European Airports spring to mind.

Probably a good indication for investors that board starts to feel overconfident. Time to take profits and move in an orderly fashion towards the hills?

I don't agree. IFT - actually, Morrisons, have a good track record investing in renewables and I'm confident that they'll grow this relatively modest in vestment into something substantial. Another Tilt would be good!
:)

[huxley]

Huge, but very diversified and difficult market - and lets face it, Infratil has quite limited (and mixed) experiences to operate in countries other than NZ or Australia. European Airports spring to mind.

Probably a good indication for investors that board starts to feel overconfident. Time to take profits and move in an orderly fashion towards the hills?


Rather than comparing to the euro airports, you could look at how longroad has performed. Will come down to the management team they've pulled together to run this business. Happy to hold IFT

[GTM 3442]

Infratil have a track record of investing in sectors which are likely to benefit from government subsidies of one sort or another. It’s not all they do, but there’s a bit of a theme there.

NZ Bus was a candidate to hoover up local government public transport funding

The collection of second-string European airports looked likely to be the recipients of central and local government funding

Pacific Radiology and Q-Scan might well expect government funding from various health-related government agencies

Retire Australia looks like a good bet given the money flowing in from (government) pensions

Green Energy looks like being the recipient of various forms of government money as the world de-carbonises

Not every Infratil investment falls into that model, but there’s a definite theme. I think they call it “Social Infrastructure”

It’s nice to have a local version of Brookfield. . . happy IFT holder

[Rossimarnz]

In my mind there is a lot to like in the Gurin play. In no particular order:
- A sector with good macro's
- IFT have experience in the sector albeit in other geographies
- Partnered with local operator who is experienced and has skin in the game
- Moderate sized investment on the overall IFT context
- Seem to not be targeting the large projects where risks are perhaps magnified and competition tougher although returns might be greater too
- Have steered clear of the great China dream that many NZ businesses are falling in love with at the moment

[bull....]

In my mind there is a lot to like in the Gurin play. In no particular order:
- A sector with good macro's
- IFT have experience in the sector albeit in other geographies
- Partnered with local operator who is experienced and has skin in the game
- Moderate sized investment on the overall IFT context
- Seem to not be targeting the large projects where risks are perhaps magnified and competition tougher although returns might be greater too
- Have steered clear of the great China dream that many NZ businesses are falling in love with at the moment

need a lot of capital for all these tilt style plays

[mfd]

need a lot of capital for all these tilt style plays

Luckily they have a lot of capital from their tilt play.

[kiora]

Not far from $8?
Bull in ?
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/INFRATIL-LIMITED-6494631/

[huxley]

The combined longroad, GGE & Gurin platform will have a 12,000 MW pipeline by 2022, by way of comparison Brookfield’s renewable pipeline is some 23,000 MW (they operate currently ~20GW portfolio) and current market cap is $10B USD.

[Ggcc]

The combined longroad, GGE & Gurin platform will have a 12,000 MW pipeline by 2022, by way of comparison Brookfield’s renewable pipeline is some 23,000 MW (they operate currently ~20GW portfolio) and current market cap is $10B USD.
Interesting times ahead by the sounds and lots of turnover today on the market for IFT

[kiora]

Bull accumulating???

[huxley]

Hit $8.05 today, Brookfield 2.0

[bull....]

Bull accumulating???

i have always liked ift , consider it a core stock to a portfolio and the last lot i brought was at 7.60 ,
been trading sideways most yr but looking good for upside break now.

[huxley]

Very little liquidity so far today, no one selling and the trickle of sharesies money seems to be drifting it higher. $8.08 so far, will be interesting to see the AU market opening.

[peat]

seems to have broken through a triple top so could have some legs!
12972

[3141592]

IFT - building out a global renewable multi-jurisdiction segment with diversified risk and a tornado level tailwind is pretty exciting.
The real release from the Asian renewable launch in my mind was that for the first time we had some visibility on the potential valuation of this segment - with Long roads 'independent' valuation at $1.8bn (only valuing a tiny portion of their development pipeline and taking a cautious multiple) helps highlight a massive upside in this segment. As others have noted comparisons to Brookfields aggregated play are incredibly favourable.
As they consider aggregating into one global operation - it would be interesting to know whether their are real operational synergies - or simply facilitating a future divestment. In any case - it appears to have a huge potential.
If Longroad's conservative enterprise value is approx $1.8bn and it only includes one year for their forward development pipline and a low multiple - it's probably not hard to speculate that it might be worth $3bn on an open market or more. That means there's $1.2bn of IFT value in that single entity. The previous spot price reports i've seen had IFT's share of longroad at $150m - so there's somewhere in the order of $0.5bn-$1.2bn of upside from an analysts perspective pre announcement ot post announcement - hence the rapid share price lift.
If i look at the whole pie - there's a data business that is serially undervalued relative to it's peers - and growing like a steam train, an incredibly exciting emerging renewables segment with the same characteristics - and a nice steady state - health segment and massive b/sheet leverage available. What's not to like?

[BlackPeter]

IFT - building out a global renewable multi-jurisdiction segment with diversified risk and a tornado level tailwind is pretty exciting.
The real release from the Asian renewable launch in my mind was that for the first time we had some visibility on the potential valuation of this segment - with Long roads 'independent' valuation at $1.8bn (only valuing a tiny portion of their development pipeline and taking a cautious multiple) helps highlight a massive upside in this segment. As others have noted comparisons to Brookfields aggregated play are incredibly favourable.
As they consider aggregating into one global operation - it would be interesting to know whether their are real operational synergies - or simply facilitating a future divestment. In any case - it appears to have a huge potential.
If Longroad's conservative enterprise value is approx $1.8bn and it only includes one year for their forward development pipline and a low multiple - it's probably not hard to speculate that it might be worth $3bn on an open market or more. That means there's $1.2bn of IFT value in that single entity. The previous spot price reports i've seen had IFT's share of longroad at $150m - so there's somewhere in the order of $0.5bn-$1.2bn of upside from an analysts perspective pre announcement ot post announcement - hence the rapid share price lift.
If i look at the whole pie - there's a data business that is serially undervalued relative to it's peers - and growing like a steam train, an incredibly exciting emerging renewables segment with the same characteristics - and a nice steady state - health segment and massive b/sheet leverage available. What's not to like?

Sounds like you are not worried about the green bubble deflating? So, what do you think would be a sensible P/E for Infratil? Current forward P/E (based on analyst forecasts for the next 3 years) is 800.

If you think that is too cheap - what about 1000 or 1500? - or am I setting my eyes still too low?

If I understand you correctly than you are saying "one can't have too many IFT".

Where did I hear that before?

[peat]

seems to have broken through a triple top so could have some legs!
12972

back to test.

[kiora]

Sounds like you are not worried about the green bubble deflating? So, what do you think would be a sensible P/E for Infratil? Current forward P/E (based on analyst forecasts for the next 3 years) is 800.

If you think that is too cheap - what about 1000 or 1500? - or am I setting my eyes still too low?

If I understand you correctly than you are saying "one can't have too many IFT".

Where did I hear that before?

From me a long time ago?

[kiora]

Renewables, BP "gambling" big
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/special-report-bp-gambles-big-100617899.html

[James108]

Hey black Peter, if pe is 800 how come they are paying a dividend of 3-4%? (And still have money to reinvest) Is it possible that the “earnings” part of the equation isn’t capturing their free cash flow. Something for you to think about….

[kiora]

Dec 20,SP
"As a value investor looking for balance sheet assets that deliver growth with income, it’s hard to look past this Company’s dynamic stable of infrastructure assets."
https://www.wealthmorning.com/2020/12/09/635398/infratil-nzxiftasxift-up-20-on-offer-could-it-be-worth-more/

I really don't know how they work this out but
https://walletinvestor.com/nzx-stock-forecast/ift-stock-prediction

[Waiuta]

I agree, it's hard to go past this diversified infrastructure company. Unsure about wallet investor though.

[BlackPeter]

Hey black Peter, if pe is 800 how come they are paying a dividend of 3-4%? (And still have money to reinvest) Is it possible that the “earnings” part of the equation isn’t capturing their free cash flow. Something for you to think about….

No need to be condescending - I know the game :):

Free Cash Flow is a fine thing if your write offs are higher than the capital you loose. This is the game of the Gen tailers ... write a power plant off over 50 years but use it for hundred plus years - plenty of free cash flow ...

Question is just - while we know that this game works with hydroplants, do we really know how long wind generators and solar systems live ... and are we sure that they are currently still undervalued given the green bubble?

Maybe something for you to think about :p ? And be careful - so easy to mix up "groupthink" with the activity of "thinking" ;):

[peat]

back to test.
on the move again.

[3141592]

Sounds like you are not worried about the green bubble deflating? So, what do you think would be a sensible P/E for Infratil? Current forward P/E (based on analyst forecasts for the next 3 years) is 800.

If you think that is too cheap - what about 1000 or 1500? - or am I setting my eyes still too low?

If I understand you correctly than you are saying "one can't have too many IFT".

Where did I hear that before?

I guess a 30 year track record of approx 20% return for shareholders, which has largely been delivered in a very consistent manner over that time should tell you the p/e analysis you're doing might not be giving you a good basis to analyse the future stock performance.

What we can see analyse is that a range of their segments / assets in the sum of the part broker valuations being included way below market bench marks.
We also see a long history of IFT divesting component parts at a time of their choosing - and running strong process to maximise outcomes.
What I believe is that they've never had a stronger portfolio set with better forward propsects than right now - and they've got in early to some really good thematics - that should promise very well for the next 5+ years. You stick to that p/e analysis if it's served you well. If that's your metric for analysing IFT - best of luck. If you thought about an EBITDA multiple approach - their proportional EBITDA is .5bn - i don't think the multiples are very high for a listed entity with strong tailwinds, in great segments and distributed risk profiles. But i guess the market has got it all wrong for 30 years - yeah right.

Green bubble - yep, climate change is all hot air.

[Swala]

Yes, agree they have a very strong portfolio now. As they have grown over the years they have had the funds to get into some seriously good growth areas (Canberra Data Centres probably being the best example). They are also realistic about getting rid of dogs where necessary. Very happy holder.

Any views on when people think this will hit $10?

[kiora]

By Dec 2022

[Ogg]

https://i.imgur.com/VFNttRU.jpg

What's this?

Are they buying Christchurch Airport now?

[kiora]

https://i.imgur.com/VFNttRU.jpg

What's this?

Are they buying Christchurch Airport now?

Or ?
https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queenstown/new-airport-mountain-climb

[kiora]

“Sometimes you don’t have to pick the right carriage, just get on the right train.”


Decarbonization - The next multi-decade growth opportunity
Just as e-commerce, cloud computing and A.I. can be classified as “multi-decade structural growth opportunities”, Decarbonization has similar attributes that allow it to fall under that same category.

The world has known of climate change for quite some time now, but as more nations begin to see severe weather events caused by it and the trajectory we’re on if we change nothing, it’s rapidly becoming a high priority that many countries and companies are wanting to address.

You might have expected that during the pandemic, businesses would put their sustainability initiatives on hold while they try to tackle the pandemic. But in fact, the opposite is true.

A survey conducted by EY in late 2020 of 200 executives across multiple industries found that 85% of them are more focused on ESG goals than before.

The survey found that Investors are seeking more information on a company’s ESG performance, employees want to work for environmentally conscious companies and customers' expectations for sustainable business practices are becoming more prominent.

It should come as no surprise because unprecedented heatwaves, fires, flooding, droughts and other extreme weather events have brought to light the urgency in which action is needed.

Figure 1: Morgan Stanley - 5 Climate Change Metrics for Investors in a Decarbonizing world - 23 June 2020
A report by the New Climate Institute and Data-Driven EnviroLab found that from late 2019 to early 2020, the number of companies and governments that have pledged to reach net zero emissions has accelerated rapidly.

The report found that in less than 1 year the number of regions, cities and companies that are pledging net-zero emissions has grown exponentially from 11 regions, 100 cities and 500 companies, to 101 regions, 823 cities and 1541 companies.

Those governments that have pledged (which includes the likes of Copenhagen and Glasgow) represent over 846 million people, or 11% of the global population, and the companies (including Microsoft) have combined revenue of over $11.4 trillion between them (over half of US GDP).

Figure 2: Map of cities and regions pledging some form of net-zero emissions target - Accelerating Net Zero - Report by New Climate Institute and Data-Driven Envirolab
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) garnered attention when it announced its plans early last year to be carbon negative by 2030, as well as removing all the emissions it has produced since its founding in 1975.

The number of entities making net-zero pledges is likely to continue increasing as more organizations and governments get on board. The subsequent demand for technologies and products that help companies and cities reach these targets will increase exponentially as global adoption grows.

While these groups have all made pledges, they each have different time-frames for when they plan to get there. Some plan on reaching their targets in the next few years, while others who are larger and more complicated entities have dates set anywhere from 2030 to 2050.

What’s certain is that achieving these targets will require significant innovation and improvement in the current areas that can help (renewable energies, storage, alternative fuels, etc). So the growth in demand for these solutions is almost unstoppable as innovation, cost reduction and adoption will continue improving.
Offsetting emissions vs reducing emissions
During the first few months of COVID restrictions when the world experienced huge decreases in travel, we got a glimpse of what the world could look like with less pollution.

Depending on where you were in the world, there were substantially fewer cars on the road and almost no planes in the sky or boats in the seas. Carbon emissions produced by us humans were lowered significantly.

Air quality improved in many high-density areas such as London and India (the Himalayas could be seen from India for the first time in decades), Venice had clearer waters and places like China noted a 25% drop in emissions over a 4 week period when all of its factories closed.

This was a real-world example of the power that emission reduction will have on the environment.

While we’d all like to resume life as normal and simultaneously keep our emissions as low as they briefly were during those lockdowns, unfortunately doing so is not a matter of flicking a switch. Given our current reliance on fossil fuels to power many areas of our everyday life, it will be a long and costly transition to reach the point in time where most societies are powered primarily by renewables.

That’s the decarbonization trend that will take decades to play out, and is the opportunity for investors that we’ll cover shortly.

In the meantime, many groups are pursuing offsetting initiatives, such as reforestation, or carbon capture and storage, which aims to act as a complementary but temporary solution to the ultimate goal of emission reduction.

Carbon offset projects have historically been a controversial topic given the difficulty in verifying them. Additionally, some argue that some carbon offset programs simply allow big polluters to continue polluting without actually trying to reduce their emissions.

However, highly-vetted carbon offset or carbon capture projects do have a big role to play in the interim as the world transitions to more sustainable energy sources longer term. The timeframe required to reach these net-zero goals is arguably too long, so these projects are effectively buying us more time.

All of this is to say that ultimately the reduction of emissions is the primary goal, while carbon offset and carbon capture programs will be complementary both in the short and long term.

As mentioned, this transition towards lower emissions and more sustainable energy sources provides huge opportunities for us as investors.
The winners and losers of the transition
That means existing carbon-emitting business practices are set for disruption or at least a major overhaul. While that spells the demise of some industries such as coal power plants and internal combustion engines, it provides huge opportunities for others.

Many new and emerging industries are set to benefit greatly from increased and sustained demand during this transition. A report by Credit Suisse outlines that the two primary areas of focus are carbon-free electricity and sustainable transport.

The report shows that power generation from the likes of wind and solar is expected to provide 40% of the world’s power by 2040 as it becomes much more affordable (up from 6% of the world’s power in 2017 and 10% in 2020).

Figure 3: Nearly half of Germany's electricity has come from wind and solar this year - World Economic Forum June 2020
On the other side of that, global power generation from coal is expected to decline from 39% in 2017 to 5.5% in 2040.

As for sustainable transport, at the time of the report 23% of global energy-related emissions stem from road, rail, air and water transport, so understandably they’re under a lot of scrutiny, and subsequently they’re experiencing a lot of innovation.

With such a clear and obvious transition in dominant industries taking place, a quote from Buffett comes to mind:
“Sometimes you don’t have to pick the right carriage, just get on the right train.”
The areas that are almost certain to benefit from this transition are the likes of renewable energy generation, energy storage, electrification of engines, alternative fuel sources, carbon accounting (which is accurate measurement of emissions), waste-to-energy and of course, carbon offset or carbon capture programs.

Currently, the renewable energy industry is the largest and most established of the areas above, based on the fact that it has the largest pool of publicly listed companies. If you wanted to explore the renewable energy industry on Simply Wall St, you can:
Our Global Renewable Energy Screener looks specifically for companies with strong return on equity, healthy balance sheets and upcoming growth. Select your market of interest from the dropdown.
If you happy to cast the net wider, this screener contains every listed renewable company (over 400!) ordered by forecast growth.
You can investigate the players in the renewable energy space like Brookfield Renewable (NYSE:BEPC), NextEra Energy (NYSE:NEE), First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR), Clearway Energy (NYSE:CWEN) and SolarEdgeTechnologies (NASDAQ:SEDG) to see how they all compare.
Or, you can simply continue to monitor your stocks (or watchlist) on your Dashboard and keep an eye out for any announcements relating to the company's ESG initiatives.

Figure 4: Tesla updates on Simply Wall St Dashboard - 24th September 2021
Just like any new trend or innovation, the adoption curve starts somewhat slowly as innovators and early adopters break new ground. Then as those innovations start to get traction and become more accessible, adoption skyrockets as the early majority join in.

In terms of worldwide adoption, we’re still likely not even at the early majority stage.

Given the length of time remaining in this transition, it seems we are still in the early days of the decarbonization of our economies. As investors, that’s a huge opportunity to at least be exposed to what is another multi-decade structural growth opportunity.

[bull....]

theres a headline in the australian saying morrison & co leading contender to buy icon cancer care , not sure if ift is part of the deal as its behind a paywall

[Balance]

theres a headline in the australian saying morrison & co leading contender to buy icon cancer care , not sure if ift is part of the deal as its behind a paywall

Ramper alert.

[artemis]

theres a headline in the australian saying morrison & co leading contender to buy icon cancer care , not sure if ift is part of the deal as its behind a paywall

First rumours I saw were back in June - AFR.

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/morrison-and-co-bankers-up-for-icon-group-auction-20210623-p583ev

[bull....]

First rumours I saw were back in June - AFR.

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/morrison-and-co-bankers-up-for-icon-group-auction-20210623-p583ev

the article today is an up-date on the deal which you reference in afr all looks promising

Morrison & Co leads race for Icon cancer care
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fbusi ness%2Fdataroom%2Fmorrison-co-leads-race-for-icon-cancer-care%2Fnews-story%2F0c6a1aa9949ce46b41fbe9d9fe786699&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium

[peat]

relatively speaking up 4% today seeing as everything else is down 2%

13025

[mondograss]

The risk with dealing with public healthcare in NZ (Aus is a very different model) is not that the govt will pull the contracts or decide to do the work itself, (it simply doesn't have the capacity) rather that they might not want to pay what the service is really worth and any revenue growth from public subsidies is likely to be a lot lower than from private patients. But it would likely give you a stable revenue base. Besides which, there's not that many private providers in NZ, Auckland only has a couple being Auckland Radiology Group and Ascot, so you do have a bit of pricing power. The equipment is ridiculously expensive these days so the barriers to entry are very high unless a large healthcare provider like Southern Cross decides that it want's to get into the game.

Well, looks like IFT have increased their pricing power somewhat with this tie in to Auckland Radiology.

https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/380283

[huxley]

Finished at $8.24 on NZX today, not long till it hits $10.00

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Well, looks like IFT have increased their pricing power somewhat with this tie in to Auckland Radiology.

https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/380283

pretty comprehensive nationwide network now. I wondered if there would be concern of commerce commission blocking it - but doesn’t appear to be any geographic overlap.

[maclir]

IFT further committing in the data centre space, this time in the UK

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/380368

Added Investor Briefing

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/380368/356276.pdf

[Swala]

Going from strength to strength. Happy holder:)

[RGR367]

I'm impressed! This is how you expose your holders to a dream :t_up:

[peat]

on the move again.

unprecedented strength in a time of weakness. bodes well.

I told you that triple top getting broken on the upside was a sign. (17/9)

[peat]

the minnows now having a play.
13035

I'm out - probably too soon , that triple top on the daily quite a big pattern. Bound to be some left in this.... but I'm out.

[Benny1]

The Vodafone investment now looks out of place. A retail business with a few sh*tty cell towers splatter about. Will they look to offload this and invest more into healthcare and datacenters?

Short answer no : I don't particularly like the Vodafone investment either, but they will stick with it for a while.

[bull....]

i have the short term move from the breakout of range ( 7 - 7-80 ) implying a move to 8.60 at least before a breather , i do note its entered over 70 on the rsi only really matters to short term people i guess

[kiora]

the minnows now having a play.
13035

I'm out - probably too soon , that triple top on the daily quite a big pattern. Bound to be some left in this.... but I'm out.

Are you sure its not the bots?