IFT - Infratil

[kiora]

The Vodafone investment now looks out of place. A retail business with a few sh*tty cell towers splatter about. Will they look to offload this and invest more into healthcare and datacenters?

One might have also said the same with Shell NZ ?

[mfd]

The Vodafone investment now looks out of place. A retail business with a few sh*tty cell towers splatter about. Will they look to offload this and invest more into healthcare and datacenters?

They aim to have a core of cash generating businesses (Transpower, Vodafone) and development businesses which are the destination for most of that cash. Vodafone fits the core criteria just fine, which isn't to say they'd never spin it off and replace it with some other cash generating business - or maybe they can grow some of the development businesses into cash cows.

[Swala]

They aim to have a core of cash generating businesses (Transpower, Vodafone) and development businesses which are the destination for most of that cash. Vodafone fits the core criteria just fine, which isn't to say they'd never spin it off and replace it with some other cash generating business - or maybe they can grow some of the development businesses into cash cows.

Yes, it's a little like the Berkshire Hathaway Model whereby their insurance businesses generate the cash which is then used for aquisitions (be that whole companies or shares in them).

[LaserEyeKiwi]

The Vodafone investment now looks out of place. A retail business with a few sh*tty cell towers splatter about. Will they look to offload this and invest more into healthcare and datacenters?

eh???

vodafoneNZ generates more than half of Infratils EBITDA - it is a glorious cash cow enjoying a boost from things like the new high margin fixed wireless broadband offerings (which eliminate the middlemen infrastructure companies like chorus and mean Vodafone keep 100% of revenue to themselves)

[peat]

Just thought I'd share from BusinessDesk

However, Kao Data is at an earlier stage compared to where Canberra-based CDC Data Centres was when Infratil bought its 48% stake in 2016. As a result, it is riskier. Boyes said CDC is now Infratil's largest single investment and "the trends that have made that investment successful are continuing, if not accelerating".
Infratil paid A$392m (NZ$410.4m) for its CDC stake and it was valued at between A$2.04 billion and A$2.3b at Dec 31 last year.

400 --> 2000 in 5 years.

I must admit I thought they were a little late on the datacentre bandwagon - the IT firm I worked for built a huge one before 2010 and had plans to rinse and repeat - but clearly not with those sort of gains.

[RTM]

Just thought I'd share from BusinessDesk

However, Kao Data is at an earlier stage compared to where Canberra-based CDC Data Centres was when Infratil bought its 48% stake in 2016. As a result, it is riskier. Boyes said CDC is now Infratil's largest single investment and "the trends that have made that investment successful are continuing, if not accelerating".
Infratil paid A$392m (NZ$410.4m) for its CDC stake and it was valued at between A$2.04 billion and A$2.3b at Dec 31 last year.

400 --> 2000 in 5 years.

I must admit I thought they were a little late on the datacentre bandwagon - the IT firm I worked for built a huge one before 2010 and had plans to rinse and repeat - but clearly not with those sort of gains.

Thanks Peat. I wonder how much capex has gone in there in those 5 years ? Any idea ?
Disc: Holder

[maclir]

Thanks Peat. I wonder how much capex has gone in there in those 5 years ? Any idea ?
Disc: Holder

You have to pick through the IFT annual reports. For example, the latest report notes for CDC "A$738.2 million of capex invested overFY2019 and FY2020." p59 of the report https://infratil.com/assets/Uploads/IFT-Annual-Report-2021-FINAL.pdf

[peat]

Thanks Peat. I wonder how much capex has gone in there in those 5 years ? Any idea ?
Disc: Holder

2017 0
2018 22
2019 140
2020 226 (48% of the overall capital investment)
2021 115 (based on same 48% because they seem to use the whole figure for the CDC )

It starts to look like the investment (like most these days) only really pays off because of the capital gains? So they will dump at some point.
Its their modus operandi .

[peat]

You have to pick through the IFT annual reports. For example, the latest report notes for CDC "A$738.2 million of capex invested overFY2019 and FY2020." p59 of the report https://infratil.com/assets/Uploads/IFT-Annual-Report-2021-FINAL.pdf

its well stated in those reports
tho sometimes it would seem they use the figure of 100% of the capex ie including the other owners as IFT only own 48 %

[RTM]

2017 0
2018 22
2019 140
2020 226 (48% of the overall capital investment)
2021 115 (based on same 48% because they seem to use the whole figure for the CDC )

It starts to look like the investment (like most these days) only really pays off because of the capital gains? So they will dump at some point.
Its their modus operandi .

Thanks. So total 503mil.
Still a lot left over.
Great.

[maclir]

Any insights into IFT SP this week other than general market despondency?

[Swala]

I think you've answered your own question. IFT is my largest NZ shareholding but if price drops below $8 I will be tempted to buy some more.

[seadog]

I have been happily invested in IFT since 2006 and my only regret over this time is taking profits. Over the last few years IFT has traded around 10% to 15% below NAV and up to 30% below in the previous decade before that. I do think the company has matured a great deal over the last while (identifying the mega trends and making sound decisions). FYI Forsyth Barr have calculated NAV at 8.80 (May 21).

[kiora]

I have been happily invested in IFT since 2006 and my only regret over this time is taking profits. Over the last few years IFT has traded around 10% to 15% below NAV and up to 30% below in the previous decade before that. I do think the company has matured a great deal over the last while (identifying the mega trends and making sound decisions). FYI Forsyth Barr have calculated NAV at 8.80 (May 21).

Not quite the same this Austel as IFT but IFT common partner paying over x2 book value
https://www.ausnetservices.com.au/-/media/Files/AusNet/Investor-Centre/ASX-Releases/2021/AusNet-enters-into-Scheme-Implementation-Deed-with-Brookfield.ashx?la=en
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/AUSNET-SERVICES-LTD-17093679/financials/

[huxley]

Should be time for the half year report, likely increase the dividend & provide some guidance on where the newer plays are performing. Also held IFT for a number of years and only regret taking profits to buy a house :) I remember in late 2016 and buying at $2.60ish, being the lowest entry. They’ve had a phenomenal performance since then.

[peat]

good article in BD today provided by AFR

The philosopher buying up the world’s infrastructure assetsAustralian Financial Review | Mon, 08 Nov 2021
Paul Newfield believes a good investment starts with a good idea.
It is a logical way of thinking for a stockpicker who graduated with a degree in philosophy, and separates short-term noise and volatility from long-term purpose and prosperity.
“We talk about investing in ideas that matter,” Newfield, Morrison & Co’s head of Australia and New Zealand says.

[seadog]

Hah great, that is hopefully at the head of every long term strategy plan.....

[maclir]

Solid half year https://www.nzx.com/announcements/382740

6.5c int div, fully imputed

Investor briefing


There will be a briefing for institutional investors, analysts and media commencing at 10.00am.
A webcast of the presentation will be available live at: https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/anoj6ayw

[RTM]

Solid half year https://www.nzx.com/announcements/382740

6.5c int div, fully imputed

Investor briefing


There will be a briefing for institutional investors, analysts and media commencing at 10.00am.
A webcast of the presentation will be available live at: https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/anoj6ayw

Thought it was all very positive. Great.
My dividend went up by ~$13 ! Couple of coffees ? Not complaining.

[bull....]

i have always liked ift , consider it a core stock to a portfolio and the last lot i brought was at 7.60 ,
been trading sideways most yr but looking good for upside break now.

todays announcement confirms why its core holding... great result

with an after-tax return to shareholders over the last five years of 26.0% and 19.0% over the full 27.5 years since Infratil listed

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/382740

past returns we hope continue but as the saying goes past returns may not represent future returns

[Benny1]

Yep happy to have this one in my portfolio. Would love to add more in the future if funds allow.
Digital,renewable and healthcare...can't really argue with those core investments.
Will help grow my shares with the DRP, although with my current holding amount and if the share price holds up it won't add too many!

[RTM]

Not much response with the shareprice. Not sure how the announcement could have been much better.
Oh well...just another boring infrastructure stock I guess.
Happy holder here. I wish all my bets were as boring as Infratil.

[BlackPeter]

Not much response with the shareprice. Not sure how the announcement could have been much better.
Oh well...just another boring infrastructure stock I guess.
Happy holder here. I wish all my bets were as boring as Infratil.

They are saying that when good news doesn't lift the SP anymore it is time to sell ... but hey, what do I know :):

[Ricky-bobby]

They need to get the div yield up I recon. they mention alignment in the future in their results, which is good. Otherwise cracking company doing well. Look to have their fingers in some good pies!!

[Bjauck]

Not much response with the shareprice. Not sure how the announcement could have been much better.
Oh well...just another boring infrastructure stock I guess.
Happy holder here. I wish all my bets were as boring as Infratil. Forecast EBITDAF for 3/2022 has dropped to $500-530m (previous forecast was $505-550m)

[RGR367]

They are saying that when good news doesn't lift the SP anymore it is time to sell ... but hey, what do I know :):

A sure sign to buy more though I got heaps of it already, I think :cool:

[kiora]

Monetary vote of confidence by director
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/ift.nzx-383295/

[tango]

Monetary vote of confidence by director
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/ift.nzx-383295/

A huge vote of confidence given current prices

[peat]

Morrison starting a 3b fund

HRL Morrison & Co said it has secured more than US$3 billion in funding commitments to establish a new, open-ended global infrastructure fund.
Paywalled Morrison & Co launches US$3b global fund | BusinessDesk (https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/finance/morrison-co-launches-us3b-global-fund)


Wont the managers of Morrison and Co now have a significant conflict of interest between the management of Infratil with the management of this new fund? Its not like Infratil isnt paying them very well.

[CJ]

I would have through IFT would pay more fees given the contract is very old and didn't anticipate the scale they are operating at???

[peat]

I think they recently were updated but haven’t checked

[Ggcc]

Morrison starting a 3b fund

HRL Morrison & Co said it has secured more than US$3 billion in funding commitments to establish a new, open-ended global infrastructure fund.
Paywalled Morrison & Co launches US$3b global fund | BusinessDesk (https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/finance/morrison-co-launches-us3b-global-fund)


Wont the managers of Morrison and Co now have a significant conflict of interest between the management of Infratil with the management of this new fund? Its not like Infratil isnt paying them very well.
Could it work together like what the superfund and Infratil have been doing?

[kiora]

Old news ,old hat in my view.
They have had infrastructure funds since 2009 alongside but separate from IFT

https://hrlmorrison.com/portfolio/public-infrastructure-partners-fund/

This hasn't hurt the returns from IFT that I am aware of.
I view IFT more as a development Co c.f the Infrastructure funds

[kiora]

"Sale and leaseback? Elsewhere in deal news, Brookfield and Morrison & Co are understood to have hired investment bank Barrenjoey Capital Partners to sell Vodafone NZ’s telecoms towers, The Australian also reports. Infratil said earlier this month it was looking to “release capital” from Vodafone’s network assets. Spark is looking to do the same. See more from BusinessDesk’s Jenny Ruth here on Infratil’s strategy.
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/wakeup-call/pink-batts-probe-shell-wins-meridian-auction
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/infratil-has-plans-for-its-more-than-2b-war-chest
"Fresh from selling its stake in Tilt Renewables for nearly $2 billion, Infratil certainly isn't short of the readies.It has net cash of about $1b, direct access to bank facilities of $894 million and another $1.03b available through its subsidiaries.And yet chief executive Jason Boyes said Infratil won't be paying a special dividend, even though there's plenty of scope to pay one."We do not view special dividends as the best use of funds," Boyes said in announcing the company's first-half results, a record 1.08b for th.."

[maclir]

And on it goes

"Infratil Limited (“Infratil”) today announced the further expansion of its diagnostic imaging business, which sees Bay Radiology Limited (“Bay Radiology”) join Pacific Radiology Group (“Pacific Radiology”) and Auckland Radiology Group (“Auckland Radiology”) as part of the broader platform.Bay Radiology is the largest private radiology provider in the Bay of Plenty region, operating eight strategically located clinics and employing 16 radiologists. The combined nation-wide platform consists of 70 clinics and employs 141 radiologists.
Infratil CEO Jason Boyes said specialist healthcare services are a major focus for Infratil, alongside its expanding investments in renewable energy, communications and digital infrastructure, and retirement facilities.
“Last year, Infratil took a majority stake in Qscan Group, a large Australian radiology business. This year has seen our investments into three similar businesses in New Zealand. These acquisitions create an opportunity to create a meaningful Australasian healthcare platform of scale with a number of potential synergies.
“The investment outlook for healthcare is very positive, benefitting from the long-term tailwinds of an ageing demographic and increasing healthcare expenditure.”
On completion of the acquisition, Infratil will own approximately 50.8% of the combined platform, contributing $32.5m for this acquisition, with the balance held by Bay Radiology doctors, and existing shareholders. The Bay Radiology doctors have reinvested a significant portion of their sales proceeds into the equity of the combined entity, similar to the processes followed by the doctors in the Pacific Radiology and Auckland Radiology transactions earlier this year.
As the majority investor, Infratil will have governance rights consistent with its shareholding and, together with the Bay Radiology doctors, will be able to drive the continued development and growth of the combined business.
Managing Partner of Bay Radiology Dr Logan Fletcher said the agreement is positive for radiology services in the Bay of Plenty.
“We will go from being a business with 16 radiologists to one with the ability to collaborate closely with 141 radiologists across a range of sub specialities. This will bring real benefits of scale for our patients, referrers and funders. We have high regard for our colleagues at Pacific Radiology and Auckland Radiology and look forward to further growth opportunities which will result from this partnership.”

[Southern Lad]

In both 2020 and 2021 IFT has released in the first couple of trading days in January the updated December management valuation range of CDC, along with the impact on the Morrison & Co international portfolio annual incentive fee. Assume we will see the same again next week.

For the Sep 21 half year, CDC EBITDA was A$75m, which was up only 1.9% of the pcp. There was strong growth in the March 21 year full year result, however I assume this was reflected in the December 2020 valuation. While CDC has a strong future growth pipeline, will be interesting to see what the latest valuation estimate is. By way of comparison, NXT has had a subdued year of headline share price change, so maybe the CDC valuation is little changed?

While there are other assets in the international portfolio, CDC is the most material.

[Southern Lad]

ASX release made this morning:

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220104/pdf/454q2phdc7hkdx.pdf

CDC valuation up c. 15% in the last six months (mid point NZ$ 2.932b verses NZ$ 2.569b at 30 June 2021).

international portfolio annual incentive fee accrual up $60m from $10m to $70m.

[BlackPeter]

ASX release made this morning:

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220104/pdf/454q2phdc7hkdx.pdf

CDC valuation up c. 15% in the last six months (mid point NZ$ 2.932b verses NZ$ 2.569b at 30 June 2021).

international portfolio annual incentive fee accrual up $60m from $10m to $70m.

Yep, its amazing how much incentive fees they can make just by cranking up the valuations. Their forwards PE (based on analysts forecasts for the next three years) is above 1000 - WOW! Even amazon used to be really cheap during its growth years.

Lets hope that the earnings will follow at some stage, given that the alternative of exponentially rising valuations might sound a bit bubbly, wouldn't it? But then .. what's wrong with bubbles in this time of the year?

[maclir]

Presumably this is a happy new year message to ACC.

[Waiuta]

Anyone know why Ifratil dropped today on no news?

[BlackPeter]

Anyone know why Ifratil dropped today on no news?

Market so slow these days ... no earnings for ages and market might be these days a bit more careful to value "growth";

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Investor day

here is the presentation slide decks:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/387270

[kiora]

Management doing what it says its going to do.
Its not worried about inflationary environment.
Interesting no commentary around any difficulties of supply installing wind farms
Share buy back soon?

[kiora]

https://infratil.com/for-investors/company-presentations/

https://infratil.com/assets/Uploads/Infratil-Investor-Day-2022-Longroad-Energy.pdf

EBITDA grows as Opco capacity increases from 1.4 GW to
8.5 GW and EBITDA reaches ~$500 mm (run rate 2026)
Vodafone
https://infratil.com/assets/Uploads/Infratil-Investor-Day-2022-Vodafone.pdf
"At an advanced stage of preparation for potential separation & capital release of
passive mobile infrastructure tower assets"
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-towers-telecoms-factbox-idUSKBN2AV1DL

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Infratil “strategic review” (in cooperation with NZ Super Fund) of its RetireAustralia ownership, with an eye on a sale by the looks of it:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/388103

[kiora]

Great buying op first trades this am

[3141592]

In these tumultuous times, IMHO - IFT stands out as an incredible stock to own. As horrific as the European war is, IFT is likely to be a beneficiary as the western world pivots even faster from petroleum to self sustaining renewable sources (now it's gone beyond climate to geopolitical drivers). It has multiple work streams underway likely to enhance shareholder value beyond the existing NZ analysts sum of the parts calculations. Retire Australia must be either a great AU launch pad for NZ businesses looking to expand or a great synergy play for an existing AU operator - but IFT have a very strong history of existing with valuations way way above the NZ analyst community. The network release from Vodafone is going to be highly accretive in terms of EV value. The addition of a new investor in longroad will help accelerate that business as it take advantage of an incredible shift in momentum and executes on a massive pipeline. The combined renewable businesses could be huge, unique and very marketable as a US listing in a few years... The datacentre business appears to have plenty of medium term headroom (plenty of AU / NZ cities to wrap around) and they're always scoping for new niche defensible areas in this space. The health care just underpins a strong cash model, a defensive position in volatility and clearly has some great synergy plays over time. It's a rare thing to find an asset with low risk gearing, great governance, massive future global growth potential and only held back IMO by the ineptitude of the NZ analyst community who are basically ignoring the opportunity (just like they screwed up Xero in the early days...). They only look at whether you'll hit this years profit or next and they only look at the most cautious valuations and ignore the likely roll out as IFT sell down succesful growth and they discount MCO for the fee's and don't put any premium for the transactional capability which ensures both sides of the buy and sell are executed flawlessly.

[kiora]

Some accumulation going on?
Increased volume & trend line?

[Ggcc]

Some accumulation going on?
Increased volume & trend line?
Yeah I noticed that. Maybe a new takeover offer or just heavier investment into IFT

[kiora]

I suppose this would account for a small amount of the TO. Only $40 m though while todays TO around $24 m
No SH notices either.
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/ift.nzx-387996/

[3141592]

Anyone have a view on likelihood that Uniti AU acquisition could potentially be an IFT asset? No nzx announcements from IFT, would there need to be for a non binding DD period? Press positioned as an MCO move so a bit confused by ambiguity of final ownership…

[kiora]

Anyone have a view on likelihood that Uniti AU acquisition could potentially be an IFT asset? No nzx announcements from IFT, would there need to be for a non binding DD period? Press positioned as an MCO move so a bit confused by ambiguity of final ownership…

My understanding IFT will not be ultimate owner
Just Morrison & Co Infrastructure Fund
https://hrlmorrison.com/what-we-offer/

And Brookfield

IFT typically doesn't invest in mature assets?

[3141592]

My understanding IFT will not be ultimate owner
Just Morrison & Co Infrastructure Fund
https://hrlmorrison.com/what-we-offer/

And Brookfield

IFT typically doesn't invest in mature assets?

I hear you, but from a relatively light scan of the asset - it has some characteristics that strike me as very IFT in nature.
It's a digital infrastructure asset - which is one of their core investment pillars.
It's growing rapidly generating strong cash conversion (they'll like it as a core / core plus).
It is capitally intensive - right in IFT sweet spot.
It has been growing rapidly from organic growth and looks set to continue this trend.
It has a small telco business - which is adjacent to vodafone... could be interesting.
I wonder whether the ownership destination is settled... that's why I'm curious.
At this value it sets just right within IFT target capital headroom, and would be the infill post Tilt.
It would enable them to continue to progress their dividend yield as i would describe it as semi-mature, rather than a 'stodgy' mature business.
All will be revealed in time... it might not meet the 12% base line return threshold... and it might be that the process of the DD will determine whether this can meet an IFT criteria or not.
So MCO review and will finalise placement post DD?

[maclir]

Anyone have a view on likelihood that Uniti AU acquisition could potentially be an IFT asset? No nzx announcements from IFT, would there need to be for a non binding DD period? Press positioned as an MCO move so a bit confused by ambiguity of final ownership…

All looks a little messy - not least having to increase the offer by 50c when it turns out the competitor wasn't really in the running. https://www.arnnet.com.au/article/696651/uniti-stops-connect-consortium-talks-over-vocus-link/

[kiora]

Woow
Nearly half the price they paid for all of Vodafone? ($3.4b)
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/464890/superannuation-fund-looks-to-acquire-vodafone-cell-towers?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+9+ April+2022
"Vodafone's decision to possibly spin out its towers, which are estimated to be worth about $1.5 billion, follows a similar move by its rival Spark, which had created a new subsidiary to hold its mobile sits and was now on the lookout for third-party investment."
Rinse & repeat

[alokdhir]

Was wondering if lower NZD helps IFT ...as it has lots of assets outside NZ ...so they get valued higher in NZD terms ie SP up .

It seems IFT is the strongest stock on NZX at the moment so was trying to figure out why so .....lower NZD also helps its NZD denominated SP !!!

[Muse]

Was wondering if lower NZD helps IFT ...as it has lots of assets outside NZ ...so they get valued higher in NZD terms ie SP up .

It seems IFT is the strongest stock on NZX at the moment so was trying to figure out why so .....lower NZD also helps its NZD denominated SP !!!

yes all else equal I would have thought so

Quite a lot of IFT's NTA comes from independent valuations. I always wondered how those valuations would fare as interest rates rise. Infrastructure really boomed as interest rates fell and infrastructure assets started getting bought and priced on skinny returns.

been a sensational performer. well run by very competent team at morrisons

[Ggcc]

[QUOTE=Fiordland Moose;954528]yes all else equal I would have thought so

Quite a lot of IFT's NTA comes from independent valuations. I always wondered how those valuations would fare as interest rates rise. Infrastructure really boomed as interest rates fell and infrastructure assets started getting bought and priced on skinny returns.

been a sensational performer. well run by very competent team at morrisons[/QUOTE

Please don’t tell some other punters who have mentioned high management costs as to how well this investment has done. Sour grapes and all.

Ps I am a happy invester with an average $3 price tag. Over 100% gain. I’m quite happy to see it head over $10 I the next few years

[kiora]

A pretty good endorsement
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/ift.nzx-391361/

[RTM]

A pretty good endorsement
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/ift.nzx-391361/

Yes...7.99 / share.

[alokdhir]

Seems that buying support is gone ...so today SP drifting down !

[maclir]

FY results coming up on budget day, 19/5.

[kiora]

"The networks are said to be worth more than $1 billion apiece and are expected to attract strong interest, in line with the trend overseas which has seen high prices paid for similar assets."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/466868/bidders-lining-up-for-vodafone-spark-cell-phone-towers?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+12 +May+2022

[alokdhir]

"The networks are said to be worth more than $1 billion apiece and are expected to attract strong interest, in line with the trend overseas which has seen high prices paid for similar assets."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/466868/bidders-lining-up-for-vodafone-spark-cell-phone-towers?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+12 +May+2022

Hopefully it will add some value to IFT valuations thus SP ...maybe doing so thats why its so resilient in such bad markets environment

[kiora]

Succession plan well imbedded

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/ift.nzx-392276/

[Sideshow Bob]

Infratil Full Year Results for the year ended 31 March 2022 - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/392296)

Infratil produces record result, highlights significant investment into high conviction sector platforms

Infratil Limited today announced a record net parent surplus of $1.17 billion for the year ended 31 March 2022 - the largest annual profit since Infratil’s establishment.

Proportionate EBITDAF of $513.9 million (before changes in the accounting treatment of SaaS expenses) was delivered above the mid-point of guidance which was $500 million to $520 million.

Proportionate EBITDAF including the SaaS adjustment was $474.9 million, up 27.9% percent on the previous year’s $371.2 million. The increase predominately reflects strong earnings growth from Vodafone and an increased earnings contribution from Infratil’s new healthcare platform.

[alokdhir]

Great results and decent guidance in this difficult markets ...Its surely a big positive :t_up:

[Swala]

I can never understand why some investors shun Infratil because of "high management fees". A consistantly excellent performer with great management that is rewarded appropriately.

[Ggcc]

I can never understand why some investors shun Infratil because of "high management fees". A consistantly excellent performer with great management that is rewarded appropriately.

Totally agree. It almost sounds like sour grapes. I’m sure that if this company underperformed my tune would change, but until now they have performed extremely well for shareholders

[Bjauck]

Great results and decent guidance in this difficult markets ...Its surely a big positive :t_up: I have been a long term investor. It is interesting to see that their after tax return has averaged at 21.6% in the last 10 years - above their post listing return of 18.7%. I remember several decades ago, reading that their goal was 18% shareholder return pa. Good job. I don't mind paying commission/manager fees for a good job done.

[alokdhir]

I have been a long term investor. It is interesting to see that their after tax return has averaged at 21.6% in the last 10 years - above their post listing return of 18.7%. I remember several decades ago, reading that their goal was 18% shareholder return pa. Good job. I don't mind paying commission/manager fees for a good job done.

Its a Firm Hold for me ...only looking to Add ...Never to exit from such a wonderful investment ...my top pick long term

[kiora]

In hindsight.
I have been wondering why the plunge from $8.40 to $7.70
$0.70 drop from end April to now.
Why?
The gorillas trying to shake the tree?

Smart a......s !

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I have been a long term investor. It is interesting to see that their after tax return has averaged at 21.6% in the last 10 years - above their post listing return of 18.7%. I remember several decades ago, reading that their goal was 18% shareholder return pa. Good job. I don't mind paying commission/manager fees for a good job done.

I think this performance is outrageously good. A really phenomenal job. Almost 3 decades of almost 19% returns!!! This is Buffett level good.

[whatsup]

I think this performance is outrageously good. A really phenomenal job. Almost 3 decades of almost 19% returns!!! This is Buffett level good.

IFT is more of a trader/company rebuilder than a earner just the same as Graham Hart , they have the eye for opportunities and maximize that opportunity, where to from here, who knows but something will turn up !!

[huxley]

Is the DRP running for this dividend? To busy to check properly but couldn’t see any mention of it at a first glance.

[kiora]

Succession plan well imbedded

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/ift.nzx-392276/

Phillippa Harford CFO & Jason Boyes
CFO well versed giving presentation today
Inflation protection in its assets.

CDC high alert for cyber security. Investing in cyber security. Bond yields down, risk free rates increased. Valuation of CDC conservative. Other data centers in advanced planning. Future green fields development valuations not included.

Demand for renewable Energy assets. Hold ups with supplies for construction, freight costs high.
Hedged input costs. Tax credits significant.
Longroad still conservatively valued, not market to market.

Dividends well imbedded

[Ricky-bobby]

12 cents final divvy… not much of a lift. Don’t own shares but really like them and what they do. Just need to lift the div up and I’m in.

[bull....]

smart operators alright at adjusting there portfolio for the times

[BlackPeter]

12 cents final divvy… not much of a lift. Don’t own shares but really like them and what they do. Just need to lift the div up and I’m in.

If you already are already worried about their small dividend ... then better don't check their earnings :p ;

But no worries .... there is only one direction for share prices to move - right?

[Ricky-bobby]

If you already are already worried about their small dividend ... then better don't check their earnings :p ;

But no worries .... there is only one direction for share prices to move - right?

Aye? Sorry no idea what ur trying to say..

[BlackPeter]

Aye? Sorry no idea what ur trying to say..

Just check their books and compare their dividends over the last couple of years with their earnings :p ;

Where is this dividend money coming from?

[Canterbury Tales]

IFT have done phenomenally well over a very long period of time. They have been very good at buying assets cheap, selling them high, or keeping them for high cashflows generated from monopoly situations. (I still grimace with annoyance every time I go to Wellington Airport, which has outrageously high parking costs. $40 per day - really? Thank goodness you can still park a bicycle for free if you just going somewhere for a weekend.)

This period has been a period of almost continuously declining interest rates, and a world-wide boom in asset prices. NZ was slow to reduce rates from the Volcker highs of 1982, and IFT timed their run from when NZ had more -or-less the highest interest rates in the OECD. It has been a particularly benign time for their operating model, and they have done it very well.

The decline in interest rates is likely over - zero is the bottom, it is up from here. So the big question is whether an operator that outperforms when interest rates are in a long term down-trend will outperform when the interest rate is going up. The big revaluations of the past are likely a thing of the past. They may be skilled in this environment, but will they be as good in a possibly different environment? That is the question that prevents me buying at $8. While I am a big believer that international green energy investments are going to be the story of the 21st century, the sector may be dominated by new players who invent the new technologies, rather than investors who spread them around the globe. Grenn energy has been a very popular sector for a decade, there are large number of international pension funds operating in it as well.

In the mean time I shall hold IFTHA, a nice alternative to vanilla bonds so long as you don't mind the fluctuations in the price, and particularly nice if you take advantage of the fluctuations to buy when very low. But not as good as the main shares over the last couple of decades.
CT

[alokdhir]

Do we always need Aussies to teach us how to interpret a fantastic result ?

We need bigger and better financial infrastructure based in NZ ...always need to wait till they open to tell us the true SP

[Waiuta]

Proud to be a holder of a very well managed NZ company.

[Beagle]

Those fees to Morrison and Co for managing it are absolutely astounding. Some people set themselves up there with an incredibly lucrative management contract !

[Bjauck]

Just check their books and compare their dividends over the last couple of years with their earnings :p ;

Where is this dividend money coming from?
I think my most recent dividend (Dec 2021) was fully imputed (28%). Unlike my SUM dividend which had no imputation credit. I would prefer SUM to pay no dividend.

Infratil's dividend policy:
Infratil's Board determines dividends having regard to the overall financial position of Infratil, the total net surplus for the relevant period and the availability of imputation credits. Until 2018 dividends were fully imputed (ie to 28%), but the increasing portion of Infratil’s earnings now coming from offshore investments has restricted the availability of imputation credits (which are only created when companies pay corporate tax in New Zealand). Infratil undertook a survey of its shareholders and ascertained that a significant portion of them were comfortable with imputation of the dividends down to 20%. It is hoped that New Zealand sourced income rises with the purchase of Vodafone NZ and that this lifts the availability of Imputation credits to Infratil.

https://infratil.com/faqs/single/94

[maclir]

Those fees to Morrison and Co for managing it are absolutely astounding. Some people set themselves up there with an incredibly lucrative management contract !

this has been debated extensively, and ACC as a major shareholder, led a - well you can't really call it - charge, to reduce these fees, and it was discussed at sharehlder meetings. They didn't get much backing from other shareholders.

Tongue in cheek, it's probably better for New Zealand, Inc, that that money be in the hands of Morrison and Co, than shareholders. Though I would have liked a slightly larger divvie this time round.

[Swala]

Those fees to Morrison and Co for managing it are absolutely astounding. Some people set themselves up there with an incredibly lucrative management contract !

You get what you pay for. Look at the results over the years. Not many NZ companies come close.

[alokdhir]

“Infratil’s after tax return since listing in March 1994 has been 18.7% per annum, and over the last ten years the returns have averaged 21.6% per annum after tax."

If u can do that on long term basis like they have done ....then u deserve every penny of those fees ...IMO

[kiora]

https://www.pngwing.com/en/free-png-zqtrf

[BlackPeter]

“Infratil’s after tax return since listing in March 1994 has been 18.7% per annum, and over the last ten years the returns have averaged 21.6% per annum after tax."

If u can do that on long term basis like they have done ....then u deserve every penny of those fees ...IMO

Quite amazing. If this is true, then they turned $1 in 1994 into $121.51 today. Did they?

Not quite sure, though. Did they sell their shares in 1994 for 10 cents each? In that case it might be true given that they paid some (though never a lot of) dividends.

My records go only back to 2000 - and in February 2000 their share was worth 56 cents. Must have been an amazing first 6 years ... or a lot of creative accounting instead;

Anyway - I do see that they had quite good times, but I see as well that their growth from Oct 2007 ($3) to Jan 2015 ($3) was Zilch. Just wondering, whether shareholders should expect one of these periods again? Currently there is a lot of "perfection"priced in ... and hey - while they often managed to flog off companies (like Z-Energy) at the right time for lots of dollars (and the buyers later noticing they bought a dog for too much money), it didn't work always for them. They made losses with a number of European Airports and not sure either how NZ Bus performed for them ...

Whatever it is - I assume the bonusses for management will stand. All good then.

[Goose]

“Infratil’s after tax return since listing in March 1994 has been 18.7% per annum, and over the last ten years the returns have averaged 21.6% per annum after tax."

If u can do that on long term basis like they have done ....then u deserve every penny of those fees ...IMO

I'm not sure of that one either. Sharesight shows a 10 year (from today's date back) gross return of 17.74% per annum (pretty awesome!); last 15 years (from 18 May 2007) at 7.93% per annum; 20 years (from 18 May 2002) gross return at 13.42% per annum. I would like to believe that the Sharesight calculations are correct but it is very difficult to check further.

[alokdhir]

I'm not sure of that one either. Sharesight shows a 10 year (from today's date back) gross return of 17.74% per annum (pretty awesome!); last 15 years (from 18 May 2007) at 7.93% per annum; 20 years (from 18 May 2002) gross return at 13.42% per annum. I would like to believe that the Sharesight calculations are correct but it is very difficult to check further.

I just quoted from company's announcement of todays results ...so I am sure its correct ...this is part of NZX announcement ...cant be factually wrong . Read the announcement below

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/392296

[BigBob]

This is from their website...:

An original investor who participated in Infratil’s initial public offering could have acquired 1,000 shares for $1,000 (500 in March 1994 and 500 in September 1994). That person would now have shares worth nearly $122,600 on 31 March 2022 - 15,219 shares (at $8.25 each).

And also:
In our calculations, we've assumed that the person: reinvested all their dividends; did not invest any more money and paid tax at the corporate tax rate if dividends were not fully imputed (if the company had not already paid the full tax).

https://infratil.com/for-investors/our-dividends-and-performance/

[maclir]

I just quoted from company's announcement of todays results ...so I am sure its correct ...this is part of NZX announcement ...cant be factually wrong . Read the announcement below

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/392296

Bought my first tranche in May 2011 for 1.92, shares today are about 8, which is about 14% pa, with divvies on top

[Bjauck]

This is from their website...:

An original investor who participated in Infratil’s initial public offering could have acquired 1,000 shares for $1,000 (500 in March 1994 and 500 in September 1994). That person would now have shares worth nearly $122,600 on 31 March 2022 - 15,219 shares (at $8.25 each).

And also:
In our calculations, we've assumed that the person: reinvested all their dividends; did not invest any more money and paid tax at the corporate tax rate if dividends were not fully imputed (if the company had not already paid the full tax).

https://infratil.com/for-investors/our-dividends-and-performance/

I see in each lustrum from 1994-2019, IFT outperformed the NZX50, as it has since 2019 too.

The worst lustrum cf NZX50 was 2009-2014 when IFT outperformed by only 1.4%.

[Goose]

I just quoted from company's announcement of todays results ...so I am sure its correct ...this is part of NZX announcement ...cant be factually wrong . Read the announcement below

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/392296

Thanks alokdhir and I agree that their statement must be correct. Anyone buying around 10 years ago has had a fabulous return on their investment. Sharesight's 'share checker' feature obviously doesn't assume that dividends are reinvested which would account for the difference I guess (plus exact start date/price difference).

[Bjauck]

...
Anyway - I do see that they had quite good times, but I see as well that their growth from Oct 2007 ($3) to Jan 2015 ($3) was Zilch. Just wondering, whether shareholders should expect one of these periods again? Currently there is a lot of "perfection"priced in ... and hey - while they often managed to flog off companies (like Z-Energy) at the right time for lots of dollars (and the buyers later noticing they bought a dog for too much money), it didn't work always for them. They made losses with a number of European Airports and not sure either how NZ Bus performed for them ....
That period was certainly a bad one for them. However I think it was a bad period for the NZ share market in general and IFT including dividends, performed in line with the NZX50 (a gross index).

[alokdhir]

"Shares in infrastructure investor Infratil jumped 2.5% to $8.10 after it reported a record $1.2b net profit thanks to the sale of Tilt Renewables last year.
The assets in its portfolio are also increasing in value, although analysts on the investor call today expressed some scepticism about the climbing valuations in the context of climbing interest rates and falling asset prices."

How much current scenario of high inflation and high rates will effect valuations of IFT assets ? Will they also be valued lower soon just like retirement stocks ??

Management yesterday stated they are " Inflation hedged " and not yet fully " Marked to Market " and further organic growth is happening continuously ....this in response to above questions about its portfolio's current and future valuations which decides its SP

It will all depend upon what market thinks and believes ....though current bad sentiment may put negative pressure on SP for some more time ..IMO

[3141592]

Having listened to the full presentation, my take outs;
- vodafone tower sell off looks to be priced inline with MCO AU telstra activity (so expect a strong - EV accretive outcome). Basically they're removing vodabone ebitda valued at X multiple and selling this into pension funds or the like at Y multiple (much much higher than telco multiples). Sale and leaseback. But we’re talking a material upside to IFT market cap.
- new investor into longroad is ontrack (next 2-3 months) - and this will provide all of us including the analyst community some valuation guidance for this emerging / rapidly growing business - one that considers a commercial view on value including the entire 10+ GW pipeline.
- dedicated slide to the global renewable platform - i like this a lot - and see in 3-5-7 years something unique and at serious global scale being developed (and sold!)
- Retire AU review will take the balance of the year (not a fast process).
- forecast EBITDAF - all in all my read was this was a fairly cautious view for 2022-2023 - given two small downgrades occurred during omicron in the year just reported - i think all the businesses have been conservative with outlook. I'd like to think that this may mean that we see upgrades during the year - but it felt like the inference was a cautious approach - particularly with vodafone.
- analysts queried valuation uplifts given economic back drops. It appears that independent valuations are conservative and there was some discussion on this, and it was noted that the valuation progressions based on business outcomes rather than background market factors meant they still lifted in value. (i got the impression analysts were slightly skeptical of this approach… eg how can you have short term value enhancements, in light of the negative market pressure on asset values taking place globally). No idea on who's right - but sense the business progression and conservative nature of the valuations probably infers that you try and ignore the economic noise or you'd have wildly swinging valuations and when the external market swung back what would look like exorbitant fee increases (MCO management fees)
- WIAL should come back online pretty quickly from July. Aim to keep cost reductions post covid.
- Health segment - strong and steady growth - with some good cash generation and a bit of risk diversification given any cash elsewhere is swallowed up by the organic growth opportunities.

Overall it remains arguably one of the most well run, interesting mix of assets available to NZ investors with global growth horizons in an array of sectors that create diversification of risk - with ongoing high returns. I'd reiterate that its asset set has never looked stronger than now. And it's historical returns have been very strong - so why wouldn't they be even stronger in the future... in general they're not businesses with significant exposure to recessions. So it's both a defensive and growth based investment. Please tell me of another great one because i can't see anything else like this one on NZX.

I’d also love to see a commercial sum of the parts valuation - because i reckon it’s >$10bn net of debt. And we’re trading at 40%-50% discounts on the ‘sell off’ value of the assets.

[alokdhir]

Having listened to the full presentation, my take outs;
- vodafone tower sell off looks to be priced inline with MCO AU telstra activity (so expect a strong - EV accretive outcome). Basically they're removing vodabone ebitda valued at X multiple and selling this into pension funds or the like at Y multiple (much much higher than telco multiples). Sale and leaseback. But we’re talking a material upside to IFT market cap.
- new investor into longroad is ontrack (next 2-3 months) - and this will provide all of us including the analyst community some valuation guidance for this emerging / rapidly growing business - one that considers a commercial view on value including the entire 10+ GW pipeline.
- dedicated slide to the global renewable platform - i like this a lot - and see in 3-5-7 years something unique and at serious global scale being developed (and sold!)
- Retire AU review will take the balance of the year (not a fast process).
- forecast EBITDAF - all in all my read was this was a fairly cautious view for 2022-2023 - given two small downgrades occurred during omicron in the year just reported - i think all the businesses have been conservative with outlook. I'd like to think that this may mean that we see upgrades during the year - but it felt like the inference was a cautious approach - particularly with vodafone.
- analysts queried valuation uplifts given economic back drops. It appears that independent valuations are conservative and there was some discussion on this, and it was noted that the valuation progressions based on business outcomes rather than background market factors meant they still lifted in value. (i got the impression analysts were slightly skeptical of this approach… eg how can you have short term value enhancements, in light of the negative market pressure on asset values taking place globally). No idea on who's right - but sense the business progression and conservative nature of the valuations probably infers that you try and ignore the economic noise or you'd have wildly swinging valuations and when the external market swung back what would look like exorbitant fee increases (MCO management fees)
- WIAL should come back online pretty quickly from July. Aim to keep cost reductions post covid.
- Health segment - strong and steady growth - with some good cash generation and a bit of risk diversification given any cash elsewhere is swallowed up by the organic growth opportunities.

Overall it remains arguably one of the most well run, interesting mix of assets available to NZ investors with global growth horizons in an array of sectors that create diversification of risk - with ongoing high returns. I'd reiterate that its asset set has never looked stronger than now. And it's historical returns have been very strong - so why wouldn't they be even stronger in the future... in general they're not businesses with significant exposure to recessions. So it's both a defensive and growth based investment. Please tell me of another great one because i can't see anything else like this one on NZX.

I’d also love to see a commercial sum of the parts valuation - because i reckon it’s >$10bn net of debt. And we’re trading at 40%-50% discounts on the ‘sell off’ value of the assets.



Good Post mate and great analysis ...Surely looking good ahead ...was just a wee bit concerned about short term valuations due to much difficult market conditions and environment but overall it seems better then before

[RTM]

Having listened to the full presentation, my take outs;


Thanks….appreciate the summary. Busy so could not listen.
Held since mid 2020. So far so good.

[Habits]

Infratil owned property up for grabs, 1.7ha, strong passive cashflow and potential plus. Wonder what it will go for, a bit more than the sky site in Mt Wellington I would say. Well out of my league, unfort

https://www.trademe.co.nz/property/commercial-property-for-sale/auction-3623718497.htm

[Waiuta]

Just enjoyed the Infratil roadshow this morning. 10 year return ~20%pa takes some beating. Clear presentation by a well diversified infrastructure company. Long term proud holder.

[huxley]

Certainly outperformed the nzx50 today

[alokdhir]

Certainly outperformed the nzx50 today

Outperform is not the word ...maxed it or nailed it ...IFT and GNE ...my stars of the day

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Certainly outperformed the nzx50 today

Was there some news today? Didn’t see anything anywhere. Not complaining of course.

[kiora]

Just the dividend paid yesterday being reinvested back into more stock?

[alokdhir]

All the Index stocks down in the morning big time ...IFT , GNE , WHS and CEN came back most strongly at index rebalancing trade ...which means Institutions want higher prices to part with these ...as mainly index rebalancing auction is done by big boys trading huge volumes

[Waiuta]

There was plenty of confidence from the Roadshow attendees and CDC have four new data centres coming on stream soon with clients signed up long term. This will provide new inflation adjusted income.

[bull....]

interesting what jim chanos says about data centre's

He continued: “The real problem for data center REITs is technical obsolescence. Their three biggest customers are becoming their biggest competitors. And when your biggest competitors are three of the most vicious competitors in the world then you have a problem

https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/short-seller-jim-chanos-bets-against-data-center-reits/

have we seen peak valuation uplift ?

[Swala]

That's why it's smart that CDC specialise in high security targeting government and their suppliers. gives them a pretty good moat.

[kiora]

Who owns the internal operating systems?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

interesting what jim chanos says about data centre's

He continued: “The real problem for data center REITs is technical obsolescence. Their three biggest customers are becoming their biggest competitors. And when your biggest competitors are three of the most vicious competitors in the world then you have a problem

https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/short-seller-jim-chanos-bets-against-data-center-reits/

have we seen peak valuation uplift ?

Lol Jim Chanos - one of the worst investors on the planet over the last decade. His investment fund capital has gone from over $7 Billion to under $400 million due to multiple catastrophically wrong shorting attempts.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Spark getting $900 million for a 70% sell down of its tower network. Infratil has to be licking their lips in anticipation if Vodafone tower sale value is something in the same ballpark.

[RTM]

Spark getting $900 million for a 70% sell down of its tower network. Infratil has to be licking their lips in anticipation if Vodafone tower sale value is something in the same ballpark.

Maybe OTPP might be the buyer there as well ?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Wow - Vodafone sells tower business for $1.7 Billion. Infratil takes a 20% stake in the new tower company.

So for Infratil with its 50% ownership in Vodafone: it collects $850 million from the sale, and reinvests $340 million into the tower co.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/395458

[Sideshow Bob]

Vodafone to sell passive tower assets and IFT reinvestment - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/395458)

Vodafone to sell its passive mobile tower assets alongside Infratil reinvestment
Vodafone New Zealand Limited (‘Vodafone NZ’), together with shareholders Infratil Limited (‘Infratil’) and Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (‘Brookfield’), announce the sale of Vodafone NZ’s passive mobile tower assets for $1,700 million to funds managed, or advised, by leading global investors InfraRed Capital Partners (40%) and Northleaf Capital Partners (40%). This represents a FY2023 pro-forma EBITDA multiple of 33.8x [1].
As part of the transaction, Infratil will reinvest to hold 20% in the new TowerCo.

[kiora]

I like this bit too....
"and a commitment from TowerCo to build at least 390 additional sites over the next ten years to enhance Vodafone’s relative coverage and capacity position.

Vodafone will continue to own the active parts of its network, including the radio access equipment and spectrum assets, maintaining an industry leading mobile coverage and network position."

"No incentive fees are payable to Infratil’s manager Morrison & Co in relation to the investments in
Vodafone NZ or Aotearoa Towers Group LP."

What's not to like ?

[Snoopy]

What's not to like ?


Vodaphone does not own a blocking stake in their 'Towerco', equivalent to the 30% blocking stake that Spark retains in their equivalent company.

SNOOPY

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Vodaphone does not own a blocking stake in their 'Towerco', equivalent to the 30% blocking stake that Spark retains in their equivalent company.

SNOOPY

Infratil owns a 20% stake though.

[RTM]

What's not to like ?

More of NZ Inc disappearing off shore along with the dividends. Would be better if NZ SuperFund or other NZ Company could buy.
Disc: Happy holder.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

More of NZ Inc disappearing off shore along with the dividends. Would be better if NZ SuperFund or other NZ Company could buy.
Disc: Happy holder.

At 34x EBIDTA they can gladly take it! Will likely be a net win for NZ economy considering IFT can reinvest cash at a much better rate of return into other companies both in NZ and internationally.

[Ggcc]

Vodaphone does not own a blocking stake in their 'Towerco', equivalent to the 30% blocking stake that Spark retains in their equivalent company.

SNOOPY
Do you think that the Infratil board would not have a backup plan?

[Snoopy]

Do you think that the Infratil board would not have a backup plan?


I was thinking more in terms of of the Vodaphone NZ board rather than the Infratil board. I imagine there are watertight contracts reserving space on those towers for Vodaphone for 15 years, with another 15 year option for renewal (like the Spark deal). But I just thought Spark retaining 30% of 'their' tower company, while Vodaphone sold out completely, was an interesting contrast. While major Vodaphone NZ shareholder Infratil maintains a blocking stake in 'their' Towerco, then I guess it doesn't matter. But I wonder what happens after Infratil's rumoured eventual sell down of their shareholding in Vodaphone NZ?

SNOOPY

[Ggcc]

I was thinking more in terms of of the Vodaphone NZ board rather than the Infratil board. I imagine there are watertight contracts reserving space on those towers for Vodaphone for 15 years, with another 15 year option for renewal (like the Spark deal). But I just thought Spark retaining 30% of 'their' tower company, while Vodaphone sold out completely, was an interesting contrast. While major Vodaphone NZ shareholder Infratil maintains a blocking stake in 'their' Towerco, then I guess it doesn't matter. But I wonder what happens after Infratil's rumoured eventual sell down of their shareholding in Vodaphone NZ?

SNOOPY

I feel there are always other games at play. I am assuming that Vodafone directors are allowed to act independently, but with a transaction of this nature would have needed the approval of both Infratil and Brookfield. I am certain that this transaction would have happened for a reason. Who knows what the reason is but we are only seeing pieces of the puzzle.

[huxley]

Infratil announces new capital and co-investor for Longroad Energy:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/396170/375625.pdf

“The transaction implies a pre-money valuation for Longroad of US$2,000 million. “

“At completion of the transaction, Infratil will have invested a net US$112 million in Longroad since 2016, and achieved an IRR of 59% p.a. based on the US$800 million pre-money valuation of its stake implied by this transaction (post-estimated performance fees and tax and sale costs payable if Infratil realised its stake).”

Wow, Infratil have been able to generate great returns on these energy transition business.

[Ggcc]

Infratil announces new capital and co-investor for Longroad Energy:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/396170/375625.pdf

“The transaction implies a pre-money valuation for Longroad of US$2,000 million. “

“At completion of the transaction, Infratil will have invested a net US$112 million in Longroad since 2016, and achieved an IRR of 59% p.a. based on the US$800 million pre-money valuation of its stake implied by this transaction (post-estimated performance fees and tax and sale costs payable if Infratil realised its stake).”

Wow, Infratil have been able to generate great returns on these energy transition business.

Back to $9 the market loves it.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

THERE SHE BLOWS!!!

new ATH right?

[RTM]

THERE SHE BLOWS!!!

new ATH right?

Oh no...my dividend yield wrecked !

[huxley]

Yup, this is a new all time high, last was about $8.40

Lots of good news coming out and market maybe waking up to the multiples these assets may transact at in the future. Longroad has a plan to build out a massive pipeline equal to ~85% of total NZ electric generation capacity, their newer Europe and Asia platforms have fully replaced the tilt pipeline already and the nz platform will over time build up as well. Next ten years will see huge investment in transition to net zero.

Will be interesting to see how it goes when the asx opens later on today, might pull back a bit.

[kiora]

Yes, agree they have a very strong portfolio now. As they have grown over the years they have had the funds to get into some seriously good growth areas (Canberra Data Centres probably being the best example). They are also realistic about getting rid of dogs where necessary. Very happy holder.

Any views on when people think this will hit $10?


By Dec 2022

My post 22-9-2021 (#2731)
I admit, it was a guess only

A ways to go yet. Just need another another good announcement?

Maybe Retire Australia? Been quite on that front for a while.

[ScrappyO]

Morning star must be kicking themselves. What were they thinking back in 2019.


Recommendation impact (last updated: 10/05/2019)
--

Event analysis
Ceased Coverage on Infratil

We have ceased coverage on Infratil. We periodically adjust coverage as necessary based on stock outlook, client demand, and investor interest. Infratil is overvalued following a strong share price rally during the past two years, and we think further strong gains are unlikely.

The outlook for its portfolio is mixed. Trustpower and Wellington Airport are mature, moaty businesses which should generate moderate earnings growth over time from reinvesting in their assets. Canberra Data Centres is growing quickly and generating strong returns by rolling out more capacity to accommodate the Australian government's need to digitise its huge amount data.

Other assets are not as attractive. Tilt Renewables in Australia and New Zealand and Longroad in the U.S. will spend large sums building new wind and solar farms, though we doubt returns will impress given huge numbers of competing renewable energy developers. We are also not overly enthusiastic about its retirement operations. Retirement living has proven to be a difficult industry to make profits, despite the tailwind from ageing populations. NZ Bus appears to be stabilising after the loss of some major routes to competitors and is likely to be sold. Similarly, Perth Energy has returned to profitability and is likely to be sold.

[huxley]

Haha that must have been after they had sold out of their ANU investment and before buying into Vodafone nz

[Swala]

My post 22-9-2021 (#2731)
I admit, it was a guess only

A ways to go yet. Just need another another good announcement?

Maybe Retire Australia? Been quite on that front for a while.


Your December '22 forecast looking pretty good!

[kiora]

Only half way there.
Hopefully more to come, sooner or latter, no worries

[bull....]

i have always liked ift , consider it a core stock to a portfolio and the last lot i brought was at 7.60 ,
been trading sideways most yr but looking good for upside break now.

took a while to breakout of the range higher. looking good

[Waiuta]

There are four new data centres coming online in 2023 with 20yr clients ensuring long term income. The entry into the UK data centre market with Kao Data is a great move with four more centres coming on utilising 100% renewable energy.

[whatsup]

IFT used to have some Convertable notes are they still out there , I cannot see them ?

[Bjauck]

IFT used to have some Convertable notes are they still out there , I cannot see them ? IFTHA? I think they are unsecured unsubordinated convertible perpetual bonds

[Onion]

IFTHA? I think they are unsecured unsubordinated convertible perpetual bonds

Perpetual - although NZX site says...


Maturity Date 01 Jan 3000

... so if you stick around for a while they might mature (or convert, I haven't looked at the terms of issue)!

[Grimy]

I'm sure the IFTHA bonds are not convertible. Just a perpetual bond. Infratil certainly make it clear on their website they are not redeeming them anytime soon, unless they have to under the terms of the original PDS - company takeover for example.

[GTM 3442]

The IFTHAs aren't convertible or redeemable.

They have an interest rate reset every year (November).

The interplay of the price, the coupon rate, and the OCR can provide a bit of work, a bit of fun, and a bit of profit.

[Grimy]

I'm certainly happy to be holding a few at the average I have them at.

[Brain]

150,000 shares purchased by a director/CEO on market is a very very good sign.

[Old mate]

Got another 71,000 yesterday. That's 2millon bucks worth must be very confident indeed.:t_up:

[Bjauck]

The IFTHAs aren't convertible or redeemable.

They have an interest rate reset every year (November).

The interplay of the price, the coupon rate, and the OCR can provide a bit of work, a bit of fun, and a bit of profit.

Infratil can redeem these bonds for cash. If there is a default event then they are redeemed for cash or converted into shares.

https://www.chrislee.co.nz/uploads//currentinvestments/IFTHA.pdf
type of instrument
Infrastructure Bonds are unsecured, unsubordinated, convertible debt obligations of Infratil.

[Grimy]

Infratil can redeem these bonds for cash. If there is a default event then they are redeemed for cash or converted into shares.

https://www.chrislee.co.nz/uploads//currentinvestments/IFTHA.pdf
type of instrument
Infrastructure Bonds are unsecured, unsubordinated, convertible debt obligations of Infratil.







But they will only redeem/convert under certain situations-which all things being equal will probably not eventuate. So best to consider them perpetual (PIIB). Maturity date is about the year 3000, so in effect-perpetual/no maturity (that is of concern to present investors). A bit more from the PDS/Flyer;

No Maturity Date: PIIBs have no Maturity Date. Accordingly
Infratil is not obliged to repay the PIIBs, and Holders of PIIBs
cannot require Infratil to repay their PIIBs, unless an event of
default or a compulsory acquisition occurs as set out in the
Trust Deed which results in an early redemption or conversion
of their PIIBs. This means that the only way in which a Holder
of PIIBs can cash in his or her investment, other than for the
limited circumstances described above, is to sell them.

There is a more up to date posting (sort of Q&A) on Infratil's web site explaining their rationale for not redeeming/repurchasing/converting the IFTHA bonds (as had been called for by some holders/brokers).
Basically, unless the company is bought out/taken over (or one of the other limited circumstances listed) these bonds are here to stay in their current form.

[Bjauck]

But they will only redeem/convert under certain situations-which all things being equal will probably not eventuate. So best to consider them perpetual (PIIB). Maturity date is about the year 3000, so in effect-perpetual/no maturity (that is of concern to present investors). A bit more from the PDS/Flyer;

No Maturity Date: PIIBs have no Maturity Date. Accordingly
Infratil is not obliged to repay the PIIBs, and Holders of PIIBs
cannot require Infratil to repay their PIIBs, unless an event of
default or a compulsory acquisition occurs as set out in the
Trust Deed which results in an early redemption or conversion
of their PIIBs. This means that the only way in which a Holder
of PIIBs can cash in his or her investment, other than for the
limited circumstances described above, is to sell them.

There is a more up to date posting (sort of Q&A) on Infratil's web site explaining their rationale for not redeeming/repurchasing/converting the IFTHA bonds (as had been called for by some holders/brokers).
Basically, unless the company is bought out/taken over (or one of the other limited circumstances listed) these bonds are here to stay in their current form. Sure they have narrow criteria enabling conversion but the redemption options for cash are wider. However it is incorrect to state that IFTHA are not redeemable or convertible.

[Grimy]

I certainly won't be complaining if they choose to redeem them. But at my average buy in price I'm also more than happy holding them.

[huxley]

“Pressures, profits and patients: Debate rages around ethics of private medical scanning”


https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/473245/pressures-profits-and-patients-debate-rages-around-ethics-of-private-medical-scanning

[TFA]

“Pressures, profits and patients: Debate rages around ethics of private medical scanning”


https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/473245/pressures-profits-and-patients-debate-rages-around-ethics-of-private-medical-scanning

Bit confusing as to where IFT sits in this. Sounds like they are effectively behind the independent group who are having a crack at the new businesses being formed by the various surgeons who potentially have a conflict of interest.

[Ggcc]

“Pressures, profits and patients: Debate rages around ethics of private medical scanning”


https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/473245/pressures-profits-and-patients-debate-rages-around-ethics-of-private-medical-scanning

Maybe the government should just make it all public. Oh wait they can't as it won't make a profit or at least break even and always needs reinvesting.....

Some people always complain when private health companies make a profit. Most of us get it and understand it. Nothing much will come of this I feel.

[kiora]

A big tick. Showing how it should be done


“What was so awesome about that is that we were successful in standing up our own enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) across all key functions - finance, HR, supply Chain and procurement - in just nine months. Frankly, that is a little bit unheard of, especially on the sort of scale and size of organisation that we have,” Haddad says. What’s more, the OfficeIT stream - end user technology including staff accounts, associated security tools and onboarding processes - came in under budget."


https://businessdesk.co.nz/sponsored/swift-successful-tech-migration-has-positive-flow-on-effects-for-customers?utm_source=7am+Headlines+from+BusinessDe sk&utm_campaign=d601479223-7am+Headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_617c2ef34a-d601479223-446239310

[3141592]

A big tick. Showing how it should be done


“What was so awesome about that is that we were successful in standing up our own enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) across all key functions - finance, HR, supply Chain and procurement - in just nine months. Frankly, that is a little bit unheard of, especially on the sort of scale and size of organisation that we have,” Haddad says. What’s more, the OfficeIT stream - end user technology including staff accounts, associated security tools and onboarding processes - came in under budget."


https://businessdesk.co.nz/sponsored/swift-successful-tech-migration-has-positive-flow-on-effects-for-customers?utm_source=7am+Headlines+from+BusinessDe sk&utm_campaign=d601479223-7am+Headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_617c2ef34a-d601479223-446239310

I think the more interesting aspect is that they're choosing to build NZ media profile with business desk sponsored articles - i assume in the runway to an ipo in 2023/2024 - when both markets / results align...

[bull....]

I think the more interesting aspect is that they're choosing to build NZ media profile with business desk sponsored articles - i assume in the runway to an ipo in 2023/2024 - when both markets / results align...

i agree with the way spark stock is trading ift would be able to reap a big profit on an ipo of vodaphone.

[maclir]

Lining up the Super Fund for a healthy chunk.

[huxley]

$9.33 - IFT is the best alpha play on NZX

[3141592]

$9.33 - IFT is the best alpha play on NZX

In 2022, some key share purchases - there's been 2 rounds of MCO at $40m, one $2m from CEO, one $0.5m from a new director, and friday something like $7m traded - no idea by whom (re the latest buys) - could be the buy backs....
There appears to be 'smart money' going in, the renewables and data centres are basically on fire in a good way - loads of investment optionality - just what IFT love. Vodafone will be sold down at a massive premium in the next 1-2 years. They're spread across a range of jurisdictions and with multiple ways of exiting any of their 'platforms' at above current analyst NZX pricing- it's shooting fish in a barrel for anyone with a decent time horizon. This is not a boring infrastructure company. This is a sophisticated PE player increasingly in exciting high growth verticals making all the right moves with pedigree to boot. No major exposure to dubious geo political markets, or recessionary consumer businesses. This is a one of those investment snow balls, and it's only just gaining momentum down a global slope (very long). As an aside MCO will go global because they're very incentivised to go global. Fine by me.

[Rawz]

What is the best way to measure IFT performance?

Book value per share?

[Ggcc]

$9.33 - IFT is the best alpha play on NZX
Shhh people still believe it is a bad investment. Of course those that have not invested.

[BlackPeter]

Shhh people still believe it is a bad investment. Of course those that have not invested.

LOL - How thankful we should be to have experts like you, who clearly think they are able to predict the future.

Well, I don't ...

But I recon the old adage of paying top dollars for high PE shares only if you trust that growth and income will never drop still applies.

Sure - IFT is a solid investment fund, but they didn't get their investments always right in the past ... and I am not sure why this should change in future :):

Get used to it, not everybody is perfect - not even IFT manager ;) ... and hype always runs out ... sometimes earlier, sometimes later ...

[Ggcc]

LOL - How thankful we should be to have experts like you, who clearly think they are able to predict the future.

Well, I don't ...

But I recon the old adage of paying top dollars for high PE shares only if you trust that growth and income will never drop still applies.

Sure - IFT is a solid investment fund, but they didn't get their investments always right in the past ... and I am not sure why this should change in future :):

Get used to it, not everybody is perfect - not even IFT manager ;) ... and hype always runs out ... sometimes earlier, sometimes later ...
I’m not surprised you responded. I’m definitely no expert and like IFT have made mistakes. I’m guessing you have never made investment mistakes. It sounds more like sour grapes to me.

Buy some shares and go along to their road show meetings. You will find they are some of the most onto it people you will ever find. They know their businesses inside out. I also feel they have made great business decisions of late. I’m also happy how they have made me loads of money since 2013.

Are they not one of if not the best performing good share of 2022???

Why else would an Australian fund be interested in them?

[kiora]

What is the best way to measure IFT performance?

Book value per share?

SP?
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/ift.nzx-396395/

[BlackPeter]

I’m not surprised you responded. I’m definitely no expert and like IFT have made mistakes. I’m guessing you have never made investment mistakes. It sounds more like sour grapes to me.

Buy some shares and go along to their road show meetings. You will find they are some of the most onto it people you will ever find. They know their businesses inside out. I also feel they have made great business decisions of late. I’m also happy how they have made me loads of money since 2013.

Are they not one of if not the best performing good share of 2022???

Why else would an Australian fund be interested in them?

Hmm - nor sure how long you are already in the investment game, but it appears that you missed so far many lessons.

As well - you clearly didn't read (or understood?) the post you responded to. Where did I say that I never made mistakes? ... quite the opposite and if you would follow this forum, than you would know as well that I am quite openly talking about my mistakes.

Not quite sure what to do with the reminder of your post. IFT well might be the best performing share in 2022 - but what exactly does this prove? I can give you plenty of shares which used to be best performing shares at some point in time ... and dropped from there into the abyss. Actually, I'd say that this is the standard behaviour for "best performing" securities when the hype deflates. No matter whether we talk Bitcoin, Twitter, XRO or Tesla.

Yes, I have been on various IFT road shows (sometimes as well as NZSA rep). Interesting stuff, but if this is your information staple to make investment decisions, than I am not sure ...

Plenty of shares made their holders lots of money since 2013. I am glad you made money with IFT ... but there are so many other shares (nearly all) which did well since that point in time. So - what exactly does this prove? Remember - past performance does not guarantee future results.

Plenty of shares are attracted by funds ... and as with any other investors, sometimes the fund managers get it right and sometimes they get it wrong. Did you notice how many funds paid top dollars for e.g. XRO, SAP, ATM, FPH to name just some - and while most of them are still solid companies (same as I think IFT is a solid fund), they lost lots of value since the funds bought in.

Remember both ACC and Jarden buying into CBL (now bankrupt). What an amazing investment by fund managers.

Fund interest says only that somebody might think it a good idea to put other peoples money into an entity. Not more and not less. Fund managers are driven by Group Think and hype as well.

Anyway - enjoy your hype rush while it lasts ... and don't complain later on when things look less rosy. Have already a sneak preview into threads of the companies I mentioned above. ATM or e.g. XRO are great examples.

But sure - nobody can predict the future ... maybe your IFT shares are in a decade at $20 and you will tell me how wrong I was. Who knows?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

$9.40 !

IFT hitting new All Time High today - well deserved also.

Many still just realising what the just passed US IRA bill means for renewable energy cos, IFT poised to reap handsome rewards with their US based business in this regard.

As the world burns in horrific heatwaves and Europe quickly weens itself off of Russian fossil fuels, Renewable energy companies are going to have a decade long bull run of growth.

[huxley]

Thanks BlackPeter, it’s alway good to keep in mind that past investment performance does not guarantee future performance.

IFT has certainly held some questionable investments, not always managements fault, but its worth remembering they will take their performance and management fees, but the downside risk of any of their investments will always be passed through to the IFT shareholder.

Of their investments which didn’t live up to the hype, NZ Bus was a pretty poor investment and would’ve underperformed a broad basket of shares. As for the European airports, I seem to recall they gave one back to the city of Glasgow for 1 GBP! At the time though, you could’ve gone along to a roadshow and walked away thinking they were all one way bets.

In some respects infrastructure investment has benefited from long term tailwinds resulting from the process of deregulation, state asset sales and generally falling interest rates since the late 1980s.

That said, IFT has delivered excellent returns for long term investors since 1994. I really like the management transparency and personally think the current investments will likely outperform.

I’m happy to keep holding and will reinvest the dividend.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Jeepers - $9.60 !

[Ggcc]

Hmm - nor sure how long you are already in the investment game, but it appears that you missed so far many lessons.

As well - you clearly didn't read (or understood?) the post you responded to. Where did I say that I never made mistakes? ... quite the opposite and if you would follow this forum, than you would know as well that I am quite openly talking about my mistakes.

Not quite sure what to do with the reminder of your post. IFT well might be the best performing share in 2022 - but what exactly does this prove? I can give you plenty of shares which used to be best performing shares at some point in time ... and dropped from there into the abyss. Actually, I'd say that this is the standard behaviour for "best performing" securities when the hype deflates. No matter whether we talk Bitcoin, Twitter, XRO or Tesla.

Yes, I have been on various IFT road shows (sometimes as well as NZSA rep). Interesting stuff, but if this is your information staple to make investment decisions, than I am not sure ...

Plenty of shares made their holders lots of money since 2013. I am glad you made money with IFT ... but there are so many other shares (nearly all) which did well since that point in time. So - what exactly does this prove? Remember - past performance does not guarantee future results.

Plenty of shares are attracted by funds ... and as with any other investors, sometimes the fund managers get it right and sometimes they get it wrong. Did you notice how many funds paid top dollars for e.g. XRO, SAP, ATM, FPH to name just some - and while most of them are still solid companies (same as I think IFT is a solid fund), they lost lots of value since the funds bought in.

Remember both ACC and Jarden buying into CBL (now bankrupt). What an amazing investment by fund managers.

Fund interest says only that somebody might think it a good idea to put other peoples money into an entity. Not more and not less. Fund managers are driven by Group Think and hype as well.

Anyway - enjoy your hype rush while it lasts ... and don't complain later on when things look less rosy. Have already a sneak preview into threads of the companies I mentioned above. ATM or e.g. XRO are great examples.

But sure - nobody can predict the future ... maybe your IFT shares are in a decade at $20 and you will tell me how wrong I was. Who knows?

I started my investing in 2006 and now at 46 have amassed some serious coin for someone my age. In short I have done very very well for myself. I would say in the top 5% richest and maybe in the top 1% for my age group.

As for maybe not understanding your post. Oh Peter maybe you are too intellectual for me. The mistakes were in reference to your thoughts of the management of IFT and their mistakes. They make mistakes and you make mistakes. They have also understood where they have made mistakes and spoken about it at those meetings.

In 2022 you have been the person who has not been overly positive about IFT in fact negative and that is why I made reference to that. Sure it is good to have a balanced point of view both positive and negative. Know when you are wrong and you don't wait till $20 per share, get on board and ride along with me on this bus. It also depends on your age, as they are a long, long-term investment. Currently, they aim to grow by 15% per annum including dividend.

It is important to have a well-balanced portfolio and IFT is only part of my portfolio.

As for investment advice regarding CBL, I was always told only invest in companies you understand and stay away from insurance companies. Brokers can advise their customers about the investments they choose, but customers always make the final decision, unless they fully leave it to the broker. I read about companies before investing in them and after that, I can still get things wrong. I have lost some serious coin to the likes of WYN and I may have bought a second house near the top of the market. Mistakes happen, but try to keep a balanced view on the likes of IFT instead of sounding like sour grapes. If I learned anything in life so far It is ok to be wrong, just don't be constantly wrong.

I do like your posts on most other threads and you have lots of wisdom to give. I wish I had your tongue at explaining things from my perspective, but I don't. Hopefully you might decide to buy a few and join on the bus ( I am assuming you have no shares in IFT of course)

Anyway happy investing.

[BlackPeter]

I started my investing in 2006 and now at 46 have amassed some serious coin for someone my age. In short I have done very very well for myself. I would say in the top 5% richest and maybe in the top 1% for my age group.

As for maybe not understanding your post. Oh Peter maybe you are too intellectual for me. The mistakes were in reference to your thoughts of the management of IFT and their mistakes. They make mistakes and you make mistakes. They have also understood where they have made mistakes and spoken about it at those meetings.

In 2022 you have been the person who has not been overly positive about IFT in fact negative and that is why I made reference to that. Sure it is good to have a balanced point of view both positive and negative. Know when you are wrong and you don't wait till $20 per share, get on board and ride along with me on this bus. It also depends on your age, as they are a long, long-term investment. Currently, they aim to grow by 15% per annum including dividend.

It is important to have a well-balanced portfolio and IFT is only part of my portfolio.

As for investment advice regarding CBL, I was always told only invest in companies you understand and stay away from insurance companies. Brokers can advise their customers about the investments they choose, but customers always make the final decision, unless they fully leave it to the broker. I read about companies before investing in them and after that, I can still get things wrong. I have lost some serious coin to the likes of WYN and I may have bought a second house near the top of the market. Mistakes happen, but try to keep a balanced view on the likes of IFT instead of sounding like sour grapes. If I learned anything in life so far It is ok to be wrong, just don't be constantly wrong.

I do like your posts on most other threads and you have lots of wisdom to give. I wish I had your tongue at explaining things from my perspective, but I don't. Hopefully you might decide to buy a few and join on the bus ( I am assuming you have no shares in IFT of course)

Anyway happy investing.

Well, here are some differences in our investment stories ...

I used to make good money at the time with WYN :), but yes, I know many didn't - and commiserations!

Re IFT ... nothing wrong with them, and I used to hold them at times. Made money with them as well (though not that much as with WYN) ... however - at this stage I do see their chances to do a RYM on their investors (another of these amazing 15% pa growth companies) and either flatline or drop, larger than their chances to keep growing with the current pace. But hey - nobody knows, maybe they are the specialists for renewable energies and nobody will catch up.

Just one thought in that. Siemens is a pretty good company ... and their daughter Siemens Energy (ENR) is currently losing serious coin with selling wind generators (google Gamesa, if you want to research), and this despite being one of the market leaders in this field.

Market is pretty tough and they are not the only company in that industry currently loosing money with every new order. But hey - these things obviously never ever will happen to IFT's companies, given that they all have the magic Kiwi vaccination, will it?

Anyway, the market lives from people disagreeing on the value of stocks - and nobody can predict the future. Sometimes I am right and sometimes I am wrong.

I never predicted Bitcoin or XRO to move to their respective peaks (but always expected them to come down again) - i.e. I have no idea where IFT will peak either (and so has nobody else). I suppose its the same with you.

Actually - RYM is another good example. Do you remember the time when every Tom, Dick and Harry jumped up and down and told everybody else how magic these retirement villages are and that they never will stop growing? Well, just replace retirement village with IFT and look at your posts. Just saying.

But anyway - good luck with your investments, and as long as you are sufficiently diversified, things should be alright.

[maclir]

*

Actually - RYM is another good example. Do you remember the time when every Tom, Dick and Harry jumped up and down and told everybody else how magic these retirement villages are and that they never will stop growing? Well, just replace retirement village with IFT and look at your posts. Just saying.

But anyway - good luck with your investments, and as long as you are sufficiently diversified, things should be alright.

Speaking of IFT divestments....still waiting the outcome of their strategic review of Retire Australia. :)

[3141592]

Speaking of IFT divestments....still waiting the outcome of their strategic review of Retire Australia. :)

I believe that they announced during the recent annual meeting that the strategic review has now led to a sale process being instigated. Expect it to conclude prior to the end of the year. They also commented that Retire AU is performing better than expected with a strong post covid demand for retirement units (claimed punters felt the retirement villages were safe havens and it had strengthened demand) and presumably this increases both the value of the entity and the likelihood other operators on the sector will be prepared to acquire.

[alokdhir]

IFT is the only major stock whose market cap has increased a lot in last 3 months due to SP going up around 22% ....with index rebalancing coming ahead ...its very possible some funds have to increase its holding based on new market cap thus brokers are accumulating for them

It may peak around 3rd Friday of the month ie 16th Sept ...like it did last time in June too !!!

[Curly]

Where’s the peak of this run?
$9.77 - $9.88?

[CROESUS U.T.]

$11-36;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjBwAYIxUso

[Ggcc]

Over 9 million shares will be traded. Sorry 11 million

[kiora]

Over 9 million shares will be traded. Sorry 11 million

???
NZX 916,834 shares for $8,352,500

[Old mate]

My info says 10,622,012. Jeepers alot.

[Ggcc]

My info says 10,622,012. Jeepers alot.
That is correct. It changed later from direct broking to $97,000,000 turnover

[kiora]

Ok I see that now
If it was Index rebalancing then would expect SP to go up?
SH selling into this rebalancing???

[BlackPeter]

Ok I see that now
If it was Index rebalancing then would expect SP to go up?
SH selling into this rebalancing???

3rd Friday on the last month in the quarter. It was index rebalancing.

[huxley]

Vodafone is now One New Zealand

Could be following the shell/Z Energy footsteps, maybe list it in a few years

[silverblizzard888]

Vodafone is now One New Zealand

Could be following the shell/Z Energy footsteps, maybe list it in a few years

Saves $20-30million a year on branding, so why not.

[bull....]

bet spark disappointed it wasnt one aotearoa

[Bjauck]

bet spark disappointed it wasnt one aotearoa Aotearoa One - A1 - Sounds ok. As it is I doubt they will be allowed to use ONZ - Order of NZ has that.

[BlackPeter]

Aotearoa One - A1 - Sounds ok. As it is I doubt they will be allowed to use ONZ - Order of NZ has that.

... but don't forget

- https://www.orienteering.org.nz/
- https://orthodonticsnz.org/
- https://osteopathsnz.co.nz/about-onz/

They all use the abbreviation ONZ as well.

I don't see any reason why One should not join the club - the more the merrier, and who knows - some business people tend to get as well the ONZ, some perhaps deserved and many underserved, so what would be the problem?

[Bjauck]

... but don't forget

- https://www.orienteering.org.nz/
- https://orthodonticsnz.org/
- https://osteopathsnz.co.nz/about-onz/

They all use the abbreviation ONZ as well.

I don't see any reason why One should not join the club - the more the merrier, and who knows - some business people tend to get as well the ONZ, some perhaps deserved and many underserved, so what would be the problem? Good reliable internet and 5G definitely deserves a gong!

Also: Oxfam NZ, and Olives NZ
https://www.allacronyms.com/ONZ

[Curly]

Volatile share price today, down almost $1 from high earlier this month. Guess it depends on what happens with Dow overnight to see what happens on Monday? Hoping for quick rebound down the track. Russia Ukraine not helping.

[nztx]

Vodafone is now One New Zealand

Could be following the shell/Z Energy footsteps, maybe list it in a few years


Z had it's Z domain name, didn't it ?

Vodafone's One NZ doesn't hold any of the NZ top level words 'One' domains as far as I can see ;)

The number '1' can be counted out as well - all held by others already :)

wONEder how long before the Marketing Dept wake up to that small hurried oversight ? ;)


Wait there is a further option for $19.95 in the Dot.one registry:

How about 'weforgottosecureourNZdomainforbranding Dot ONE ' ? :)

[BlackPeter]

Z had it's Z domain name, didn't it ?

Vodafone's One NZ doesn't hold any of the NZ top level words 'One' domains as far as I can see ;)

The number '1' can be counted out as well - all held by others already :)

wONEder how long before the Marketing Dept wake up to that small hurried oversight ? ;)


Wait there is a further option for $19.95 in the Dot.one registry:

How about 'weforgottosecureourNZdomainforbranding Dot ONE ' ? :)

Looks like they resolved this problem :p :

https://one.nz/

[nztx]

Looks like they resolved this problem :p :

https://one.nz/


The domain is still registered in the name of the original Registrant
who secured it in 2017 and holds the .co.nz :)

[BlackPeter]

The domain is still registered in the name of the original Registrant
who secured it in 2017 and holds the .co.nz :)

LOL - you mean they nicked it?

With all due respect, but maybe your information is not as up to date or as relevant as it could be :) ;

Not a big fan of vodafone either, but I am sure they sorted this problem before they launched their website.

[BlackPeter]

.... duplicate - deleted

[nztx]

LOL - you mean they nicked it?

With all due respect, but maybe your information is not as up to date or as relevant as it could be :) ;

Not a big fan of vodafon either, but I am sure they sorted this problem before they launched their website.


With respect - the NZ Domain Registry records should be as up to date, relevant and current as can ever be :)

You'd think Voda aka One would be onto to that immediately to get Registrant changes through ASAP :)

Perhaps there was a delay in getting their rebranded Corporate One Plastic through for the job :)

[BlackPeter]

With respect - the NZ Domain Registry records should be as up to date, relevant and current as can ever be :)

You'd think Voda aka One would be onto to that immediately to get Registrant changes through ASAP :)

I can't speak for the Domain Registry. You need to raise your complaints with them. While you are doing that ... feel free to browse the one.nz and one.co.nz webpages :p ;

[nztx]

I can't speak for the Domain Registry. You need to raise your complaints with them. While you are doing that ... feel free to browse the one.nz and one.co.nz webpages :p ;


Nah .. cant be bothered the old site was hassle enough to find what was wanted without all
the pretty moving graphics to distract :)

Dont Voda have their own domain registry ? .. A few minor changes shouldn't be too major

[BlackPeter]

... not that it would matter in any way shape or form, but here is the solution to the domain name quest:


It definitely helped that Vodafone NZ secured the one.nz internet address (registered by a former staffer, who now works for 3Plus Consulting - one of the agencies involved in the rebrand).

from https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/vodafone-nzs-one-nz-rebrand-five-clear-problems-why-they-wont-ultimately-matter

(paywalled)

I trust Vodafone have an agreement with their former staffer who works now for their Rebranding agency :) ;

[Rawz]

What is the best way to value IFT? Its book value per share at 31 march was $5.13

So it is trading at a 1.63x multiple

The dividend yield has traditionally been 4-5.5% p.a. Now at 2.22% according to ASB.

Thought i would have a look since fisher funds rates them so high with them being the top pick in their KFL portfolio...

Anyone have a successful approach when buying some shares? Or is it just a matter of put some down and check back next decade (their long term returns are very impressive according to their website)

[BlackPeter]

What is the best way to value IFT? Its book value per share at 31 march was $5.13

So it is trading at a 1.63x multiple

The dividend yield has traditionally been 4-5.5% p.a. Now at 2.22% according to ASB.

Thought i would have a look since fisher funds rates them so high with them being the top pick in their KFL portfolio...

Anyone have a successful approach when buying some shares? Or is it just a matter of put some down and check back next decade (their long term returns are very impressive according to their website)

OK - I am sure you don't want to hear that ... but in my view is currently a lot of growth expectations baked into the IFT share price. Clearly - its neither earnings nor asset value.

Growth companies typically grow as long as the hype carries them, and then they drop ...

Forget any modelling - you just will get dizzy by the size of the required growth rates. If you believe in the fund manager and that their data centers and particularly the value of their green power assets will maintain double digit growth rates year after year and that IFT will sell them with impeccable timing (as they did e.g. with Z-Energy), before they drop, than by all means, hope, pray and stick with them.

If you however believe that reality might catch up with them at some stage (as it did already with a number of other green energy companies (like e.g. ENR.DE- Siemens Energy), than I would worry less about modelling but more about diversification :) ;

Anyway - just my 2 cents ...

Discl: not very good in predicting the timing of hype waves, i.e. I might be wrong for still some time to come ... or I might not be :) ;

[Bjauck]

I see from marketscreener.com the average target price is $9.07 with a weak “buy” recommendation. It may have been some time since some brokers updated their targets.

The other companies I looked out before being locked out were OCA and KMD and they had strong buy recommendations on the marketscreener website.

[Curly]

I see from marketscreener.com the average target price is $9.07 with a weak “buy” recommendation. It may have been some time since some brokers updated their targets.

The other companies I looked out before being locked out were OCA and KMD and they had strong buy recommendations on the marketscreener website.
I note 5 recommend IFT as a buy and I think Forsyth Barrr have them as Buy before current downturn. Whereas OCA are 3 at a buy and 1 as an out perform.

[Bjauck]

I note 5 recommend IFT as a buy and I think Forsyth Barrr have them as Buy before current downturn. Whereas OCA are 3 at a buy and 1 as an out perform.
Marketscreener.com recommendations have 2 buy, 1 outperform, and 2 hold for Infratil.

[Ggcc]

Someone is keen to get off the IFT train

[Curly]

How much lower can this go?

[Rawz]

How much lower can this go?

It usually trades below book value. So could in theory go below $5.13 :ohmy:

[Ggcc]

It usually trades below book value. So could in theory go below $5.13 :ohmy:
Will be topping up big time at those levels.in saying that. If they do go to those levels I feel the rest of the market will be similar and there will be bargains galore.

[BlackPeter]

Will be topping up big time at those levels.

From memory - their share price used to be some years ago double digits (in percent) below the NTA (i.e. book value minus intangibles). I think I remember even something like 30%, but can't be sure of that. Somebody else still has the numbers?

2022 NTA is $3.61;

Anyway - probably no need to rush the top up.

[kiora]

Only half way there.
Hopefully more to come, sooner or latter, no worries

Retire
Australia sale nearly there?

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/ausunity-lendlease-lob-retireaustralia-bids-wait-on-stage-two-20220926-p5bkzp

[Rawz]

What sort of multiples is it going for?

[BlackPeter]

Retire
Australia sale nearly there?

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/ausunity-lendlease-lob-retireaustralia-bids-wait-on-stage-two-20220926-p5bkzp

Can't read the article (hey, one can't subscribe to every publication, can one?), but wondering whether now is a good time to sell retirement stocks ...

[kiora]

"For now, AusUnity, Lendlease and the other bidders are waiting on RetireAustralia’s board, owners and bankers to shortlist parties for the auction’s second and final stage."

[BlackPeter]

file:///C:/Users/biliv/Downloads/Retire%20Aust.pdf

We can't really access a file which seems to sit on your C:drive.

Any chance you could provide a link to the internet :) ?

[Curly]

Can't read the article (hey, one can't subscribe to every publication, can one?), but wondering whether now is a good time to sell retirement stocks ...
I would have thought the reverse at current prices, good time to buy.

[RTM]

Happy with this.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/402348

[Bjauck]

Happy with this.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/402348 58% of IFT's portfolio is now in digital technologies; 21% in renewables. It really has pivoted away from "old economy" infrastructure industries.

[BlackPeter]

Happy with this.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/402348

I notice that lots of their "fair value" (actually 36%) is in Data centres. Fair enough - they are fashionable, but maybe this is as well a high risk strategy? What happens to them if some of the global undesirables decide to take a data centre out?

I notice as well that a material part of their income (though just 10% this HY) comes again from "independent re-valuations". Not supposing anything untoward, but I guess the proof of a re-valuation is in the pudding (not in the book).

Solid investment fund and congratulations to long time holders. Still - I see them as pretty much fully valued.

[RTM]

I notice that lots of their "fair value" (actually 36%) is in Data centres. Fair enough - they are fashionable, but maybe this is as well a high risk strategy? What happens to them if some of the global undesirables decide to take a data centre out?

I notice as well that a material part of their income (though just 10% this HY) comes again from "independent re-valuations". Not supposing anything untoward, but I guess the proof of a re-valuation is in the pudding (not in the book).

Solid investment fund and congratulations to long time holders. Still - I see them as pretty much fully valued.


With a dividend yield slightly more than 2% I wouldn't be rushing to buy them at the moment either.
Bought mine mid 2020, more than happy to sit on what I have wishing I'd been braver then.
2.6% of portfolio.

[Curly]

All good but when will we see $9.54 again?

[BlackPeter]

All good but when will we see $9.54 again?

What makes you think we do? Is this based on the amazing dividend yield (north of 2%), the outstanding underlying earnings (long term less than 1% - I guess they make their money with revaluation gains and opportunistic sells) or the return of the hype factor?

I guess nobody can predict where hype is driving a stock but really - anybody going for a rapid capital gain would not go for a stock which is at best fairly valued and its growth phase already in the past, would they?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

This part is amazing:


Following completion of the tower sale, Infratil will have received almost $1 billion in cash distributions in the just over three years since acquiring Vodafone for $1.03 billion, while still retaining a 49.9% shareholding in the Vodafone business.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

From memory - their share price used to be some years ago double digits (in percent) below the NTA (i.e. book value minus intangibles). I think I remember even something like 30%, but can't be sure of that. Somebody else still has the numbers?

2022 NTA is $3.61;

Anyway - probably no need to rush the top up.

NTA increased to 4.18

[LaserEyeKiwi]

58% of IFT's portfolio is now in digital technologies; 21% in renewables. It really has pivoted away from "old economy" infrastructure industries.

Yes, Wellington Airport does stick out like a sore thumb now. I’m sure it is on their divestment schedule, but of course now is the wrong time to be selling an airport asset - I imagine they will wait for full recovery post-pandemic before attempting that.

Retire Australia is the current focus for divestment.

[BlackPeter]

NTA increased to 4.18

They reported in their full year report for FY22 a NTA of $3.61 - and this is what I said.

They just (after my post) re-counted their peas for HY 2023, and yes, it might be a bit higher now.

Anyway - NTA clearly no reason to spend more than $8 on this share, isn't it?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

They reported in their full year report for FY22 a NTA of $3.61 - and this is what I said.

They just (after my post) re-counted their peas for HY 2023, and yes, it might be a bit higher now.

Anyway - NTA clearly no reason to spend more than $8 on this share, isn't it?

Wasn’t implying you got it wrong at all, jsut providing the update from todays report.

Yeah it does look a bit rich on that metric, trading at over double book value. Take away the one off gains from divestment sales seemingly every year as well and the price vs underlying net income doesn’t look terribly great either, especially with that ginormous management/incentive fee.

I still hold, but wont be adding more at this price.

[Waiuta]

Happy holder...

"In terms of our returns to shareholders, we will pay a fully imputed interim
dividend of 6.75 cents per share, a 4% increase from the prior. Infratil's
share price also rose from $8.25 to $8.65 over the period, with an after-tax
return to shareholders over the six months of 6.5% and
a return over the last ten years of 20.5%," Mr Boyes said.
"Infratil's excellent results continue to deliver outstanding returns to
shareholders - continuing years of strong performance."

[Bjauck]

Yes, Wellington Airport does stick out like a sore thumb now. I’m sure it is on their divestment schedule, but of course now is the wrong time to be selling an airport asset - I imagine they will wait for full recovery post-pandemic before attempting that.

Retire Australia is the current focus for divestment. People and things will always* need to move, so I can comfortable with infrastructure related to planes, trains and mobiles. As BP said data centres has a big allocation and I trust its well secured. I think a diverse portfolio is good, and Morrisons/Infratil can invest in companies with potential. I have a good size holding (for me) and I am happy to hold.

*advances in teleportation and 3d printing notwithstanding!

[winner69]

Wasn’t implying you got it wrong at all, jsut providing the update from todays report.

Yeah it does look a bit rich on that metric, trading at over double book value. Take away the one off gains from divestment sales seemingly every year as well and the price vs underlying net income doesn’t look terribly great either, especially with that ginormous management/incentive fee.

I still hold, but wont be adding more at this price.

Book Value is $7.93 a share so current share price not far away from that

If anything cheap as

[winner69]

when My Boyes says 'a return over the last ten years of 20.5%' i assume he means 20.5% pa

[kiora]

when My Boyes says 'a return over the last ten years of 20.5%' i assume he means 20.5% pa

& Compounding

Nice surprise Retire Australia steaming ahead & don't need to sell it.

[Waiuta]

when My Boyes says 'a return over the last ten years of 20.5%' i assume he means 20.5% pa

You are correct.
In my case I purchased in 2016 (3600), 2018 (3600), 2019 (965), 2020 (765) and with a couple of reinvestments (68 & 86) my average price is $3.45. My Sharesight records I have received 5.81% divies and 23.87 capital gain for an overall return of 27%pa.

[huxley]

Interesting that the DRP is not running again, does this reflect managements view of the share price? Or just reflect the $400m cash balance.

[3141592]

My take outs from the interim and updated thoughts...

Firstly the discussion around book value on this forum seems odd. The assets have largely been in play for years - and have been high growth capital assets independently valued at a significant premium to any original investment. Further time and time again IFT sells these assets at a very significant premium to these independent valuations. Commentary referring to historical IFT % of Net Assets seems at best irrelevant bearing little relationship to their current ‘commercial’ value. In my opinion, the nature of the current portfolio is quite different from IFT of old - further untethering the connection to book values. This is an asset mix that largely is growing rapidly by any infrastructure metric and is therefore voracious in its financial capital appetite. Not a bad thing. Don’t jam up dividends, reinvest for growth - and that’s what they’re doing.

We’ve now heard from Will Smales (via press articles) and Allison Gerry in her detailed commentary on this interim report about their focus on SAAS businesses for future investment - where resilient business models and business dependencies give them similar characteristics to Infrastructure assets. I’m looking forward to seeing if the next year bears fruit in this area and they make a significant play and also unwind from (is it a disciplined or lazy) low gearing! There should be some opportunistic plays in the current global environment.

I suspect they’ll do well out of the divestment from Retire AU - it’s good to see it performing strongly at such a critical juncture. As much as I think they could do well in the long term holding - only they know their capital structure and capital priorities - so i trust them to make the right call, and I suspect it’ll be one that has analyst upside.

Data Centre growth remains stellar - i love the sovereignty defensive position where the AU superannuation fund co-shareholder gives both Govt and tier 1 Corporate a sense of trust and stops the likes of Microsoft / Amazon et al coming aggressively into this valuable niche. Or at least not easily… Despite the slight delay to EBITDA generation - they’ve flagged demand continues to surge - and they’re accelerating their capital deployment (Sydney investor presentation). Looks like there’s lots more headroom, and it remains one of the jewels in the IFT crown. The above forum commentary about a fully priced IFT asset - well let’s see where this sits in 2-3 years. And we’ll see how fully priced it is!

Vodafone exit - imo remains an interesting proposition - within the next 2 years? On the downside of interest rates - after they’ve extracted the best of the IT transformation and cost out - what a return! Basically paid for itself and they own half of it. This will be the most successful local utility ownership period on record!

The only fly in the ointment remains the health sector - but the factors are clearly beyond reasonable control and it looks to be very short term in impact. They have high conviction in the segment and I’m interested to see how the NZ Govt health funding changes play out to assist with more preventative treatments, surely this will be beneficial…

The airport as an odd part of the portfolio - maybe - but it’s a very stable cash generating unit that would normally (outside a pandemic) underwrite the small dividend yield model. Given so much of the portfolio is capital intensive - i’d be surprised to see them give it up and finding a local buyer, or one that would get OIO approval feels quite hard…. But who knows.

I didn’t listen to the interims, and normally can glean a little more intel during the oral presentation and the follow up presentations, so this is just from scanning the current online info.

[Swala]

My take outs from the interim and updated thoughts...

Firstly the discussion around book value on this forum seems odd. The assets have largely been in play for years - and have been high growth capital assets independently valued at a significant premium to any original investment. Further time and time again IFT sells these assets at a very significant premium to these independent valuations. Commentary referring to historical IFT % of Net Assets seems at best irrelevant bearing little relationship to their current ‘commercial’ value. In my opinion, the nature of the current portfolio is quite different from IFT of old - further untethering the connection to book values. This is an asset mix that largely is growing rapidly by any infrastructure metric and is therefore voracious in its financial capital appetite. Not a bad thing. Don’t jam up dividends, reinvest for growth - and that’s what they’re doing.

We’ve now heard from Will Smales (via press articles) and Allison Gerry in her detailed commentary on this interim report about their focus on SAAS businesses for future investment - where resilient business models and business dependencies give them similar characteristics to Infrastructure assets. I’m looking forward to seeing if the next year bears fruit in this area and they make a significant play and also unwind from (is it a disciplined or lazy) low gearing! There should be some opportunistic plays in the current global environment.

I suspect they’ll do well out of the divestment from Retire AU - it’s good to see it performing strongly at such a critical juncture. As much as I think they could do well in the long term holding - only they know their capital structure and capital priorities - so i trust them to make the right call, and I suspect it’ll be one that has analyst upside.

Data Centre growth remains stellar - i love the sovereignty defensive position where the AU superannuation fund co-shareholder gives both Govt and tier 1 Corporate a sense of trust and stops the likes of Microsoft / Amazon et al coming aggressively into this valuable niche. Or at least not easily… Despite the slight delay to EBITDA generation - they’ve flagged demand continues to surge - and they’re accelerating their capital deployment (Sydney investor presentation). Looks like there’s lots more headroom, and it remains one of the jewels in the IFT crown. The above forum commentary about a fully priced IFT asset - well let’s see where this sits in 2-3 years. And we’ll see how fully priced it is!

Vodafone exit - imo remains an interesting proposition - within the next 2 years? On the downside of interest rates - after they’ve extracted the best of the IT transformation and cost out - what a return! Basically paid for itself and they own half of it. This will be the most successful local utility ownership period on record!

The only fly in the ointment remains the health sector - but the factors are clearly beyond reasonable control and it looks to be very short term in impact. They have high conviction in the segment and I’m interested to see how the NZ Govt health funding changes play out to assist with more preventative treatments, surely this will be beneficial…

The airport as an odd part of the portfolio - maybe - but it’s a very stable cash generating unit that would normally (outside a pandemic) underwrite the small dividend yield model. Given so much of the portfolio is capital intensive - i’d be surprised to see them give it up and finding a local buyer, or one that would get OIO approval feels quite hard…. But who knows.

I didn’t listen to the interims, and normally can glean a little more intel during the oral presentation and the follow up presentations, so this is just from scanning the current online info.



You make some excellent points. Infratil goes from strength to strength and is a superbly managed company. Unfortunately (for them) a lot of people still don't get it and often begrudge Morrison & Co's well earned fees.

[BlackPeter]

You make some excellent points. Infratil goes from strength to strength and is a superbly managed company. Unfortunately (for them) a lot of people still don't get it and often begrudge Morrison & Co's well earned fees.

No worries, you only can win in the investment world if you see things others don't ... and any gentleman investor would only silently congratulate themselves for their sharp eyes instead of rubbing it into his fellow investors eyes that they didn't had the same divine inspiration.

There is however just a small step from a successful investor who had the luck or the genius to trust the Morrison's over the last six years or so (and lets face it - this is the only time which really distinguishes IFT from any other infrastructure investment fund) to somebody who is thanks to his winning streak so over confident that he looses the sight on warning signs. It sounds you are straddling the border line.

Just tell us - are you still monitoring your investment? What would be your exit criteria?

Remember - past performance is no guarantee for future performance ... and just relying in a name is typically futile. Sure - sustainable success is typically earned, but luck is always part of it as well. People are lucky until they aren't.

There was a time when the RYM and the A2M and the FPH's and the XRO's of the world couldn't do a wrong step ... until they stumbled. They all had some amazing years ... until they ended.

Just make sure you are close enough to the exit when this happens with IFT ... and hey, be nice to your fellow posters. You never know - their eyes might see something your conscience just wants to ignore (ownership bias).

Anyway - long might your lucky streak last ... though - are you sure the trend isn't already turning?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Book Value is $7.93 a share so current share price not far away from that

If anything cheap as

Where are you getting this figure from in the report?

Results announcement states $4.18 NTA per share

[winner69]

Where are you getting this figure from in the report?

Results announcement states $4.18 NTA per share

Just took the Equity of 5,742m on Balance Sheet divided by number of shares

Lots of Goodwill etc on Balance Sheet

PS: Company structure and reporting is rather complicated though ….so who owns how much isn’t that straightforward and above quick calc might be wrong.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Just took the Equity of 5,742m on Balance Sheet divided by number of shares

Lots of Goodwill etc on Balance Sheet

PS: Company structure and reporting is rather complicated though ….so who owns how much isn’t that straightforward and above quick calc might be wrong.

I just used the $4.18 NTA figure they quoted to the NZX in the results announcement:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/402348/383374.pdf

Most of their assets they don’t own 100% of:

14320

However I did just see there is a huge difference between their “Book value” & “fair value” estimates:

See page 17:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/402348/383370.pdf

14321

[BlackPeter]

Where are you getting this figure from in the report?

Results announcement states $4.18 NTA per share

You do realise that book value is equal to NTA plus intangibles?

I.e. they are not the same ...

[3141592]

Now listened to the interim presentation - just a few other insights to add to my earlier post…

Expect within the near future an announcement for a re-entry into AU for a renewables business. The ex-CEO of Tilt (Deion Campbell) is now part of Morrison & Co and it sounds like they’re leveraging his experience, expertise and relationship network to contemplate starting another early stage business. It’ll take a few years to build a head of steam, but it makes sense and will add to their global scale over time. It’ll be a nimble business capable of putting together multi-party complex offerings that’ll find a niche below the major operators.

Remain keen on the health diagnostic and expect further acquisitions in this space. Maybe from Europe (my inference at the end?) as i think they want their 24h tele-radiology business model developed.

CDC - reiterated that the CEO had recently discussed at the Sydney investor day that customer demand remained very very high and it was giving them the necessary confidence to continue to invest.

Global renewable platform and Longroad - they would place a focus in the future (I’d say within 6 months) on bringing the journey for Longroad to a $500m EBITDA business within 4/5 years to life… assuming that means giving greater clarity on projections and capital requirements. This should assist the analyst forecasts - as they’ve until recently placed little value on the whole renewable sector. It’s now clearly maturing and emerging as something they need to attribute a realistic value too. They also reiterated the Biden's recent passing of legislation was having an immediate impact on Longroad's velocity. Great news here. Galileo was also progressing well albeit a few years behind Longroad. Manawa had the greatest challenge, with some regulatory uncertainties adding to risk in its development pipeline. They’d take a global perspective in capital allocation and Manawa investment needed to stack up against other territories that had potentially less risk profile.

[kiora]

Thanks 314....
Good summation
+ Manawa executives recently toured IFT Australian assets to see what synergies there could be

[Pmdv77]

What makes you think we do? Is this based on the amazing dividend yield (north of 2%), the outstanding underlying earnings (long term less than 1% - I guess they make their money with revaluation gains and opportunistic sells) or the return of the hype factor?

I guess nobody can predict where hype is driving a stock but really - anybody going for a rapid capital gain would not go for a stock which is at best fairly valued and its growth phase already in the past, would they?

Come back with your cynicism in 3 years time. Most longer term holders sitting on 3 x. Even people who took up the rights offer for Vodafone are 2x.

[kiora]

A tad more than that
"An original investor who participated in Infratil’s initial public offering could have acquired 1,000 shares for $1,000 (500 in March 1994 and 500 in September 1994). That person would now have shares worth nearly $130,790 on 30 September 2022 - 15,462 shares (at $8.65 each).

A post-tax return of 18.6% a year over 29 years. In contrast, the NZX50 delivered a return of 8.3% a year over the same period."
https://infratil.com/for-investors/our-dividends-and-performance/

[RGR367]

A tad more than that
"An original investor who participated in Infratil’s initial public offering could have acquired 1,000 shares for $1,000 (500 in March 1994 and 500 in September 1994). That person would now have shares worth nearly $130,790 on 30 September 2022 - 15,462 shares (at $8.65 each).

A post-tax return of 18.6% a year over 29 years. In contrast, the NZX50 delivered a return of 8.3% a year over the same period."
https://infratil.com/for-investors/our-dividends-and-performance/

Let's leave BP alone on this as he attacks the stocks he normally doesn't own or when coming to those share celebrations rather late.

[BlackPeter]

Come back with your cynicism in 3 years time. Most longer term holders sitting on 3 x. Even people who took up the rights offer for Vodafone are 2x.

I guess that's the problem with hyped up stocks. While owners do know that past performance is no indicator for future performance and that at some stage markets will come back to fundamentals - ownership bias has a tendency to overwrite this knowledge and the only tool still left to them seems to be linear interpolation of the current trend.

Have a look at previous market darlings who just couldn't do wrong (FPH, RYM, ATM, XRO, Bitcoin, Twitter, Facebook and so many more). They all had an amazing hype driven ascent into regions with very large PE's indeed, and than they came crushing down to reality. Some earlier, some later, but all did.

But sure - this time will be different :p .

[BlackPeter]

Let's leave BP alone on this as he attacks the stocks he normally doesn't own or when coming to those share celebrations rather late.

Well yes, one could say I put my money where my mouth is. Makes sense, doesn't it?

However there is one thing you got totally wrong: I never attack stocks, but I might warn people to be careful or to dance close to the exit.

If you walk into a swamp and somebody suggests you are careful, does this somebody attack the swamp? Of course not, (s)he is only trying to help you.

You on the other hand are clearly blindfolded by ownership bias and group think. Do some research on these effects, it might save you a lot of money in the long run.

[Snoopy]

A tad more than that
"An original investor who participated in Infratil’s initial public offering could have acquired 1,000 shares for $1,000 (500 in March 1994 and 500 in September 1994). That person would now have shares worth nearly $130,790 on 30 September 2022 - 15,462 shares (at $8.65 each).

A post-tax return of 18.6% a year over 29 years. In contrast, the NZX50 delivered a return of 8.3% a year over the same period."
https://infratil.com/for-investors/our-dividends-and-performance/


That may be the truth, but Infratil have left one chapter out of their story. When Infratil were formed in the mid 1990s, there were actually three Infratils. There was the Infratil we know now that was called 'Infratil New Zealand' back then. There was also 'Infratil Australia' and 'Infratil International'. What happened to the other two? They were not as successful as the 'home' Infratil. My memory is a little vague on their fate. But I have a recollection of 'Infratil Australia' being taken over by some Australian managed fund, and 'Infratil International' being taken over by 'Infratil New Zealand', which then became renamed simply 'Infratil.' I recall the 'Infratil Australia' takeover happening after a few years of index under-performance, while 'Infratil International' departed the bourse at, I think, below issue price. IOW IPO investors in 'Infratil Australia' and 'Infratil International' had quite poor returns.

What Infratil have done in their 'investment return claims' is similar to what other fund managers do who start several funds but only keep the one that is the most successful and close the others down. Their return claims may be accurate. But the real question you need to ask is, if you were in at the beginning, how did you know to put your funds into 'Infratil New Zealand' and not the other two? We only know that investing in Infratil New Zealand was the better thing to do with hindsight.

The way I see it, if you really want to track 'Infratil' returns since inception, you would have to split your initial capital into three, and track the return of all three Infratils with your funds equally distributed. Looked at this way, the returns since inception that 'Infratil' today are so proud to quote, while accurate, have been skewed upwards by survivorship bias.

SNOOPY

[Bjauck]

...
The way I see it, if you really want to track 'Infratil' returns since inception, you would have to split your initial capital into three, and track the return of all three Infratils with your funds equally distributed. Looked at this way, the returns since inception that 'Infratil' today are so proud to quote, while accurate, have been skewed upwards by survivorship bias.

SNOOPY Were all three Infratils of equal size when initially floated and listed on the NZX?

[Snoopy]

Were all three Infratils of equal size when initially floated and listed on the NZX?


Very good question. I can't remember. I guess what you are hinting at is that if the three Infratils were not of equal size, then as a measuring stick you should invest your 'initial capital' in proportion to their size? I think that is a fair point to raise. It is all so long ago now. I think by the turn of the century (yikes 22 years ago!) there was only one Infratil left standing. But I don't recall the 'other two' Infratils ever being shell company minnows.

I have never invested in any of the Infratils myself. That wasn't because I thought they were poor investments. Infratil New Zealand I have always categorised as a slow grinding star. My issue in those early days was that their three principal investments were Trustpower and Port of Tauranga and Wellington Airport. The first two of those were separately listed. So why buy into Infratil when you could just buy Trustpower and Port of Tauranga shares outright, without any 'management fees' being siphoned off between you and your return? One reason would be if you wanted exposure to Wellington Airport, or pre-Sharsies, if you wanted diversification with a modest amount of capital. But that argument wasn't enough to win me over. And although Infratil New Zealand was successful in those early days, Trustpower and the Port of Tauranga as stand alone investments did better.

I am not trying to diss Infratil as an investment by the way. I guess I have a somewhat 'biased aversion' to putting a manager between myself and my investments, when I am used to doing investing 'hands on' by myself. But I understand that for others, something like Infratil may be the way to go. And the Infratil of today has changed. It isn't possible to replicate their investment portfolio today on a 'do it yourself' basis.

SNOOPY

[Bjauck]

...
I am not trying to diss Infratil as an investment by the way. I guess I have a somewhat 'biased aversion' to putting a manager between myself and my investments, when I am used to doing investing 'hands on' by myself. But I understand that for others, something like Infratil may be the way to go. And the Infratil of today has changed. It isn't possible to replicate their investment portfolio today on a 'do it yourself' basis.

SNOOPY Yes I was thinking of the relative sizes of the three - and country of listing. Were they all listed on the NZX? Wasn't the Australian one bought out in about 2000 by an Australian suitor. I remember there was a bit of a kerfuffle.

Your aversion was a reason for my investment in its early days. I do like to directly invest too, especially these days. I am an unsophisticated investor with limited analytical skills. So I plonked down my small amount for the managers to decide what to do with ( and added to it at several propitious times.)

Its share price has not always been boring - although not to the extent of the white knuckle share performance of ATM or PEB. For example as with many listed investment funds around the World, IFT was dumped to a discount after the GFC.

[Snoopy]

Yes I was thinking of the relative sizes of the three - and country of listing. Were they all listed on the NZX? Wasn't the Australian one bought out in about 2000 by an Australian suitor. I remember there was a bit of a kerfuffle.


Yes they were all listed in NZ.

I have found this reference to a 'Shoeshine' column from 22 years ago that outlined what happened

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/b09883cb/the-shoeshine-column-infratil-australia-takeover-bid-stumbles.html

Infratil Australia (IFA) held shares in Perth Airport, Northern Territory airports, the Victorian port of Portland and an interest in Southern Hydro power. Total asset base reported to be worth $A298m at the time of this takeover controversy.

"From a shareholder's point of view, even IFA's assessment of a 12% gain is better than a decline, which has been the trend for IFA shares. After floating in 1997 at $1.30 a share, they lost nearly half their value by mid-1998 before recovering to $1.15 in early 1999."

"Since then, there has been a steady decline to a low of 75c last month. At the recent price of 95c, the shares are still down 27% on their float price."

So it looks like it was 'go to whoa' in just three years for Infratil Australia!



Your aversion was a reason for my investment in its early days. I do like to directly invest too, especially these days. I am an unsophisticated investor with limited analytical skills. So I plonked down my small amount for the managers to decide what to do with ( and added to it at several propitious times.)

Its share price has not always been boring - although not to the extent of the white knuckle share performance of ATM or PEB. For example as with many listed investment funds around the World, IFT was dumped to a discount after the GFC.


It sounds like Infratil NZ 'did the job' for you Bjauck. And if you managed to add a few just after the GFC, then so much the better!

SNOOPY