IFT - Infratil

[kura]

The warrants took a hit this morning, starting to look tempting @ 95 cents

[Toddy]

the positives from high oil prices for IFT

Petrol prices start to bite
24 May 2006
By TRACY WATKINS and MARTIN KAY

Record petrol prices are tipped to almost double the cost of keeping the average family car on the road to $103 a week.
More motorists are turning to public transport as petrol price rises start to bite, with bus and train operators reporting passenger numbers across the Wellington region up by at least 5 per cent.

The higher costs of running a car will put more pressure on public transport services: Wellington Regional Council figures show nine city routes – mostly from Karori, Khandallah and Island Bay – saw passenger numbers grow more than 10 per cent in the first three months of 2006.

Stagecoach executive chairman Ross Martin said the company was carrying 5 per cent more passengers than at the same time last year.

"Certainly, the buses have been very full in February, March and April. Obviously, the price of petrol's one of the issues . . . people are giving the bus a go, having a pleasant experience and sticking with it."

[Snow Leopard]

The old share seems a little out of favour at the moment. I am thinking top-up time, heads or warrants, either will do depending on the sell price .

[Toddy]

Common sense solution proposed by the Australian Department of Transport for Wellington Airport.

Could be a real goer, everyone would be a winner and it would allow Air/Quantas to go ahead with their plans.

Capital air route may get special treatment
25 May 2006
By ROELAND VAN DEN BERGH

Air New Zealand and Qantas could be forced to continue to compete on trans-Tasman flights out of Wellington even if a code-share agreement was approved, according to the Australian Department of Transport and Regional Services.


Air New Zealand and Qantas have applied to authorities in both countries for permission to combine their trans-Tasman businesses in order to return the heavily loss-making route to profitability.

Opponents in Wellington fear the move will result in less competition, fewer services, and higher prices.

The code-share will give the airlines a near monopoly between Wellington and Australia. In Auckland and Christchurch the airlines compete against six other, mainly foreign carriers, across various routes.

Wellington is a separate market because the city's runway is too short to cater for the large planes used by foreign carriers. These carriers tack on a trip across the Tasman Sea to their Australian long haul services, the Department of Transport says in its submission to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.

[Rif-Raf]

Good to see CFO buying in as a result of recent pullback.

[Toddy]

All of the right signals are coming out of the Auckland Public Transport 10 year plan too. Exciting times ahead.

What are the odds on IFT getting the right calls on:
1.AIR/Quantas code share for Wgtn Airport.
2.The purchase of the Mana Bus company.
3.Auckland Public Transport plan.

Time will tell.

[Toddy]

IFT has shown its hand on the price it considers good value to purchase shares back off the market for the benefit of shareholders.

$4 is the magic number

[Snow Leopard]

Previous share buyback transactions were at $3.65 last December and $3.70 at the beginning of March.
So far they have acquired approx 1.2m shares, or 0.5% of the available stock.

There seems to be a very considered approach to this buyback, buying only when the price is weak.
I was dubious when they announced this buyback but they have won me round.

[Snow Leopard]

Another 850,000 at $4 today.
They must be buying from some large holders, institutions, what Phaedrus would call the "smart money". It is certainly dinging the OBV.
Hum, I will think about this some more.

[Toddy]

Macquarie likes the bus business too.


Stagecoach, a U.K. bus and rail operator, jumped 3.7 percent to 111 pence. Macquarie has agreed to buy the company's London bus operation for 263.5 million pounds ($482 million) to expand in the U.K.

[Deev8]

quote:Originally posted by Toddy

Macquarie likes the bus business too.

Stagecoach, a U.K. bus and rail operator, jumped 3.7 percent to 111 pence. Macquarie has agreed to buy the company's London bus operation for 263.5 million pounds ($482 million) to expand in the U.K.

But it's interesting that Stagecoach, who after all have a lot of experience in the bus business, would prefer to sell it off to Macquarie.

[kura]

Maquarie has been buying a lot of infrastructure type assets for thier various funds (flavour of month) wouldn't be surprised if they have allready approached IFT about buying some of their assets.

[Snow Leopard]

IFT sits in my long-term (IRD speak 'income') portfolio and at the current moment in time I am torn between between buying more ( because they are down) and selling out completely!
On the one paw you have a resonable div yield and a share buy back most recently at $4.00 (fridays close), hopefully underpinning the price.
On the other paw, I really do not like the purchase of Stagecoach NZ, or to be honest, the stake they took in APX. This is a 'gut' feeling but a Tiger ignores it's internals at it's peril.

Serious opinions on the long term of IFT welcome. Please!

[Toddy]

Tiger

Stagecoach was a great play by IFT. Kiwi's are hurting more than any other developed nation with the high oil prices and the falling New Zealand dollar.
The public transport industry is at the beginning of a major growth cycle as the mum's and dad's of New Zealand think twice about taking the car to work.

As for APX, did not agree with that play myself but gave them the benefit of the doubt due to the Chairman of both Companys being one of the same. Thank goodness its only play money.... for now.

[Deev8]

quote:Originally posted by Toddy

Stagecoach was a great play by IFT.

Stagecoach believe that they got a good deal selling their NZ assets, and Infratil believe that they got a good deal buying them. It's possible that they are both right, and of course exchange rates have a part to play with one company reporting in Pounds and the other in NZ Dollars. However it's more likely that the transaction was a good move for one company and a bad move for the other.

Stagecoach continue to think that they got it right, and now they have sold-off their London bus operation as well.

[Rif-Raf]

Higher oil prices are a negative to their airport activities
and positive for their Stagecoach investment. - Good asset management by IFT.

[D_Pick]

Do Stagecoach buses not run on petrol?

Assume both bus and airline companies are less profitable the higher the price of oil. I'm not convinced that higher oil prices are so fantastic for the Stagecoach NZ bus fleet and bottom line of any bus company. Sure some additional people are going to use the bus instead of alternative transport methods, however on the flipside those lower utilised bus routes and buses will be more costly to run and in some cases make even greater losses than before with oil prices at these levels.

[Zaphod]

quote:Originally posted by D_Pick

Do Stagecoach buses not run on petrol?

Assume both bus and airline companies are less profitable the higher the price of oil. I'm not convinced that higher oil prices are so fantastic for the Stagecoach NZ bus fleet and bottom line of any bus company. Sure some additional people are going to use the bus instead of alternative transport methods, however on the flipside those lower utilised bus routes and buses will be more costly to run and in some cases make even greater losses than before with oil prices at these levels.


Stagecoach buses run on Diesel - a minor point of difference.

While I too am not convinced that higher oil prices are fantastic news for Stagecoach, public transport does provide an 'economy of scale' & environmental benefits that cannot be duplicated with a passenger car.

In fact, we are increasingly seeing not only the price of fuel increase, but other ancillary costs increasing such as parking, registration, cost of repairs etc. These have a flow-on effect to the consumer that hopefully means that patronage on buses will continue to increase, even on lower utilised bus route.

[BRICKS]

WHEN IFT got the bus company did the get the Trolley bus bit as WELL.. [8D]

[Toddy]

For you Bricks. All positive for the Wellington Region. Shame about the ComCom decision on Mana though. The Council was all for the takeover.


25 June 2006
NEW ZEALAND: FUNDING DEAL TO SAVE TROLLEY BUSES
More comfortable, reliable and larger buses to come

“Greater Wellington has reached a deal that could save the trolley buses,” announced Greater Wellington Regional Council Chairman Ian Buchanan today. “Together with Land Transport New Zealand we’ve reached agreement with Stagecoach on a proposed funding package that would see the trolley buses refurbished, overhead lines upgraded, and this unique service continue.”

Ian Buchanan said the only hurdle left was to ensure the Commerce Commission is comfortable that the deal does not breach the Commerce Act.

“The Commerce Commission has signalled they plan to investigate the contract with Stagecoach, who is the sole supplier of trolley buses on these routes. We hope any issues the Commerce Commission have will be resolved quickly.”

Mr Buchanan said the proposed deal came after intense negotiations between Greater Wellington and Land Transport New Zealand with Stagecoach over levels of funding for the upgrade and running of the ageing fleet of sixty buses.

“Greater Wellington has already increased its funding for trolley buses in our long term plan. What we needed was Land Transport New Zealand to agree to funding 50% of the actual cost of operating the trolleys and overhead upgrades, and Stagecoach to agree to fund the capital cost of refurbishing the buses. We now have agreement to all these terms.”

Ian Buchanan said that the proposed deal had been approved in principle by the Board of Land Transport New Zealand. “The Board of Stagecoach’s owner Infratil and the Greater Wellington Regional Council now have to give approval to the proposed deal. I’ve am very hopeful that both will sign off the deal, subject to Commerce Commission approval.”

Mr Buchanan said that if the proposed deal was approved by all parties, the sixty buses would be refurbished and the overhead lines gradually upgraded.

“The refurbished buses will be larger, much more comfortable for commuters, and much more reliable. The buses will have low floor and wheelchair access, more comfortable seating and improved electrical systems meaning fewer delays. The other benefits of keeping trolley buses include no increase to diesel emissions on our main streets, and quieter running. Overseas experience also shows that replacing trolley buses with diesels results in a drop in patronage.”

Mr Buchanan noted that with the trolley bus funding resolved Greater Wellington now has substantive agreement on most major public transport projects including long term contracts for rail and bus services, and the replacement or refurbishment of the region’s passenger rail rolling stock.

“This deal is another step forward in the redevelopment of Wellington’s public transport system. We’re now making real progress, and commuters can look forward to the arrival of much improved buses and trains over the next few years,” said Mr Buchanan.

Mr Buchanan said the planned improvements to the trolley buses included:

More seats and greater capacity. The refurbished buses will have 51 seats (40 in the existing buses) running on three axles (currently two). This means greater capacity on key routes.

More comfortable. The refurbished buses have new interiors and a modern shape. The new interiors will be more comfortable with modern seating, heating and handholds.

More accessible. The refurbished buses will be low floor and wheelchair accessible.

More reliable. Redesigned electrical poles will mean an estimated 50% reduction in ‘dewiring’ incidents. In the event of dewiring a new automatic retriever system will speed up the process of replacing the poles on the wires, and make the process safer for the driver.

The new poles and retrieval system will reduce damage to the overhead wires, reducing maintenance.

Completely redesigned and more accessible power systems on the buses

[Zaphod]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

WHEN IFT got the bus company did the get the Trolley bus bit as WELL.. [8D]


Too true! I'd forgotton about the trolly buses. [:I]

[Toddy]

Good news. The new trolley bus deal was signed off by the Comcom. That should tie up the Central Wellington bus contract for a good few years.

http://www.infratil.com/2/6150.htm

[Toddy]

Glasgow Prestwick Airport got some free exposure for their freight division on all of the U.K news channels tonight.

The Americans have been using the airport to freight bombs to Israel over recent days. The U.K are a little upset about it because they say that the Americans should have asked for permission, which they would not have given.

[Toddy]

IFT had their agm and released the first quarter results on Monday.

All is well down at the office. TPW is growing, Stagecoach exceeded expectations and the Australian Energy assets have started to turn a profit. The European Airports business came in flat as income from Glasgow offset the new purchases. All in all, the market should like what it sees and its not too difficult to visualise where IFT's growth is coming from for the indefinate future.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10395086

[CJ]

Agree with all their investments going well - they just need CC to reverse Mana decision so they can buy off the investment bankers.

[CJ]

quote:Originally posted by CJ

Agree with all their investments going well - they just need CC to reverse Mana decision so they can buy off the investment bankers.


As expected they are appealing. Rumour in the industry is that Bancorp is only warehousing the shares to stop other bus companies which are interested in getting into wellington from pursuing.


quote:NZ Bus to appeal Mana Bus decision
14 August 2006
By SUE ALLEN

New Zealand Bus, an offshoot of Infratil, says it is appealing against a court decision relating to an attempted purchase of Mana Coach Services earlier this year.

But a two-day hearing to set penalties for breaching the Commerce Act will go ahead in Wellington High Court from today.

Problems started for New Zealand Bus, which trades as Stagecoach, in January when it applied to the commission for clearance to buy rival local bus operator Mana Bus.

New Zealand Bus later withdrew the application, prompting a Commerce Commission inquiry and an application for an injunction to stop the purchase on the basis it would substantially lessen competition.

New Zealand Bus operates under the Stagecoach Wellington, Cityline Hutt Valley and Runciman Motors brands.

In June, Justice Forrie Miller ruled in favour of the Commerce Commission, saying New Zealand Bus had breached the Commerce Act when its offer to buy Mana shares became unconditional on March 15.

He also found that Ian Waddell and Kerry Waddell, the vendors of the Mana shares, had breached the Act by being a party to the prohibited purchase.

An Infratil spokesman said yesterday the company was appealing Justice Miller's June decision. The Waddells are also appealing.

Late last month, merchant bank Bancorp made a lightning raid, buying up 74 per cent of Mana Coaches.

[Toddy]

IFT has had a couple of tough days since the AGM with a few sellers around. The SP has been hit despite TPW making good headway after the Govt pricing announcement.

Does anyone know the numbers around the Origin Air business in and out of Wellington Airport. I doubt that it would be significant but would be interested to know all of the same.
Glasgow Prestwick flights have been effected over the latest security scare here in the U.K. However, apart from the direct Stanstead Prestwick daily flight it looks like it has been very much business as usual. As the security status has now been downgraded it will be back to normal soon. Sometimes in these situations the second line airports actually pick up extra business off the big London airports. i.e Kent may actually benefit in the long run with the inability of Stanstead/Gatwick to cope when the pressure comes on. Heathrow is run like a machine and any disruption at all causes a backlog almost straight away.

[Rif-Raf]

quote:Originally posted by Toddy

IFT has had a couple of tough days since the AGM with a few sellers around. The SP has been hit despite TPW making good headway after the Govt pricing announcement.

Does anyone know the numbers around the Origin Air business in and out of Wellington Airport. I doubt that it would be significant but would be interested to know all of the same.
Glasgow Prestwick flights have been effected over the latest security scare here in the U.K. However, apart from the direct Stanstead Prestwick daily flight it looks like it has been very much business as usual. As the security status has now been downgraded it will be back to normal soon. Sometimes in these situations the second line airports actually pick up extra business off the big London airports. i.e Kent may actually benefit in the long run with the inability of Stanstead/Gatwick to cope when the pressure comes on. Heathrow is run like a machine and any disruption at all causes a backlog almost straight away.

I've been contemplating the recent UK air scare and it's potential affect on IFT's airport activities. Some thoughts...

Negatives
1.Will no doubt curtail peoples propensity to use air travel for a while.
2.May increase operational costs with security if the costs can't be passed on to airlines, or if they can pass on, the fares will increase and discourage demand a little
3.Perhaps the smaller airports like Kent will not have the economies of scale to implement more sophisticated security processing infrastructure.

Positives
1.People may feel a lot more comfortable flying from smaller airports that are not symbolic targets like Heathrow, also, less US bound flights from their airports
2.South England/UK recognises a need to be less dependent on Heathrow/Gatwick being the terrorist target for the UK. This may play into the hands of accelrating the development of Kent as a good alternative
3.If longer queues continue, they will extract more revenue from passengers waiting to fly!
4.Many travellors choice of destination may switch from the US to europe which is where IFT's airline clients are strong in.

[Placebo]

Origin collapse definitely bad for IFT. No matter how small the operator, the airport collects money whenever an aircraft moves. One less airline (and no new ones in the wings) equals reduced revenue.

AIR will pick up Origin's passengers, but that doesn't necessarily mean more flights, so it's good for AIR and bad for the airports.

[Toddy]

Rif Raf

Newspaper reports have indicated that the airport chaos has been caused by the airport companys and their inability to process the carry on luggage in a timely manner. On a normal day you have to queue.
BAA is taking the blame as Heathrow/Gatwick and Stanstead have not invested in the aircraft handling side of the business but have concentrated more on the retail side. The airports should have been running smoothly within 24 hours after the initial (non event) security alert. They used the caterers strike last year at Heathrow as an example how any small deviation causes a complete breakdown of all of the airport systems.
The papers have also reported upto a 50% increase in charter flights in and out of the airports outside of the top three.

If I can find a positive for IFT in what has been a rough week, then I would say that Kent Airport will benefit from these events in the long run as the locals seek out airports where they do not have to queue hour on end and where their luggage will not be lost. As for Glasgow Prestwick, good proactive management meant limited disruption.

Origin. Reality has hit home again that the New Zealand market is not yet big enough to support multiple carriers.

[kura]

Certainly been drifting down lately !

Disc: Just put in a cheeky bid for some warrants at 90 cents, as buy depth looked so weak.

[Toddy]

IFT share buy back has kicked off again.

200,000 at $4.02

[Happy Camper]

I note those buy-back shares are held as treasury stock. Is this with a view to re-selling them into the market at some later date? Interesting that IFT consider themselves the best value for money infrastructure investment at the moment.

Cheers

[Toddy]

quote:Originally posted by Happy Camper

I note those buy-back shares are held as treasury stock. Is this with a view to re-selling them into the market at some later date? Interesting that IFT consider themselves the best value for money infrastructure investment at the moment.

Cheers


HC

Maybe the buyback has something to do with the shares currently trading in the range of a 15-20% discount to NAV at present. And that it not even taking into account the Victoria Lines business which is not fairly reflected on the balance sheet i.e costs of new customers have been expensed.

Noticed this article in the Dominion today, on balance another dry season should be helpful for TPW's bottom line which feeds through to IFT.

Meanwhile, the two lakes at the heart of New Zealand's largest hydro scheme have less storage in them than at the same time in the 1992 and 2001 power crises. National hydro storage levels have also fallen below those at the same time in 1992, although they are still higher than during the 2001 scare.

Meridian spokesman Alan Seay said Tekapo and Pukaki were 33 percent and 30 percent full respectively, which was 58 percent of average for the time of year.

The levels of lakes Manapouri and Te Anau were above average, he said.

Other figures show Lake Ohau is 24 percent full and Contact Energy's Lake Hawea is only 12 percent full.

[Toddy]

Energy Developments reported a 31% increase in net operating profit. Forecast is for the same again for FY07.

Well done IFT management on the accumulation policy of ENE shares.

[Toddy]

The Glasgow Prestwick freight business should be turning around soon based on the BAA report below.

Cargo up by 25% from Scottish Airports
29.08.06

Cargo shipped via Scotland's major airports have shot up 25 percent to more than 50,000 tonnes in the past year, according to a press release from BAA Scotland. The company, which operates Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen airports, said much of the accelerated growth in freight volumes was down to the success of Edinburgh Airport, where cargo volumes grew by almost 40 percent in the period.

Stephen Baxter, managing director of BAA Scotland, said: 'The expansion of direct international services from Scotland clearly has spin-off benefits for businesses in Scotland. With airlines such as Emirates, Delta, US Airways, Continental, flyglobespan and Pakistan International Airlines operating long-haul flights from Scotland, we now have access to some of the world's key markets.'

[Toddy]

Some Stagecoach news. 7.4 percent passenger growth on Wellington buses.

NEW ZEALAND: EXTRA BUSES ADDED TO BUSY ROUTES
ADAM RAY

BUSES are to be pulled off quieter routes and added to busy rush-hour routes in Wellington, as growing passenger numbers overwhelm services.

Stagecoach and Greater Wellington Regional Council are finalising plans to juggle buses between routes and add services.

Some morning services from Hataitai, Island Bay and Karori into the central city are so full they cannot stop to pick up passengers.

Bus passenger numbers have grown 7.4 per cent this year, as people switch from cars to public transport because of high petrol prices.

Greater Wellington transport procurement manager, Rhona Hewitt, said bus schedules would add more services to these routes.

Stagecoach executive chairman Ross Martin said there was a clear demand for more buses on the Wellington network.

[winner69]

Be interesting if passenger numbers fall with huge increases in fares pn Monday ... like 15-20%

But with fare increases like that you think they will come out out ahead

[Toddy]

The Alliant sell down was very much on the cards, howeverit is still very big news. It will be interesting to see what part IFT has to play in the sale process. Its a good opportunity to bring on board a big Aussie partner who has big pockets and is well connected. Alliant Energy was always a little to far from NZ to be useful. The sale process will also indicate what a fair market price is on Trustpower and IFT.

ASSET: IFT: Alliant Energy's Sale of TrustPower Shares

6 September 2006

Alliant Energy's Sale of TrustPower Shares

Infratil notes that its long term partner at TrustPower, US based Alliant
Energy, has commenced a sale process to sell its New Zealand subsidiary,
Alliant Energy New Zealand Limited.

Alliant Energy New Zealand Limited owns 23.77% of TrustPower Limited and
5.07% of Infratil. Alliant Energy New Zealand Limited is the counterparty to
the long standing Investment Agreement between Infratil and Alliant.

Infratil independently holds 35.18% of TrustPower. Infratil is a committed
long term cornerstone investor. Infratil has been very comfortable working
with both Alliant and TrustPower's other major shareholder, the Tauranga
Energy Consumer Trust (28.56%) to contribute at Board level and to support
TrustPower's management team.

Infratil's partnership with Alliant has been very successful as reflected in
the party's willingness to renew the original 1999 agreement, firstly in 2001
and then again in 2003, however, Infratil recognises and accepts the ebb and
flow of international investment strategies that can influence offshore
investors.

Infratil is working closely with Alliant as it works through the sale
process.

[duncan macgregor]

It was well broadcast before the announcement if you look at the sp of TPW. Who said insider trading is not alive and well on the NZ market. This is another example of the cowboy exchange. macdunk

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

It was well broadcast before the announcement if you look at the sp of TPW. Who said insider trading is not alive and well on the NZ market. This is another example of the cowboy exchange. macdunk


DO you work for this company as WELL.. [8D]

[duncan macgregor]

If you look up the sp trend from the last week in august in both IFT and TPW up todays announcement of a sellout you might see what its about BRICKS. I am not complaining sometimes it serves me well knowing that it is a cowboy market. macdunk

[CJ]

how do the takeover rules work. If someone buys the alliant sub, do they have to make a takeover offer for the rest of trustpower, or is the subsidary a block inthat process.

[Toddy]

CJ

My understanding is that if the Alliant shareholding is sold as a 'chunk' then the buyers would have to make all shareholders the same offer. Hence the IFT disclosure earlier in the day that IFT nor the Trust will be sellers of their TPW.

Fun times ahead over the next few weeks as we will find out who are interested in NZ Energy and Infrustucture. This sell off provides a good opportunity for an investor/investors to enter the market in what is otherwise a tightly held script.

[Toddy]

Game on. The next few weeks should be interesting.

Infratil eyes key holding in TrustPower
07 September 2006
By MARTA STEEMAN

A $515 million stake in leading electricity company TrustPower is up for grabs after an American shareholder announced it was retreating to its home market.
Local investor Infratil looks likely to vie for the key 23.8 per cent holding in Tauranga-based TrustPower with international investors.
Alliant Energy of the United States announced yesterday it was selling its New Zealand subsidiary, Alliant Energy New Zealand, which holds 23.8 per cent of TrustPower and a 5 per stake in Infratil.
The New Zealand investments are the last of Alliant's international investments to be sold.
TrustPower shares rose 8 cents to $6.85 after the announcement.
Infratil already owns 35 per cent of TrustPower and has controlled it with Alliant for three years.
TrustPower is one of New Zealand's five big electricity generator-retailers.
It has about 30 small hydro power stations and a big wind farm, and has 220,000 electricity customers throughout New Zealand.
A purchase of the 23.8 per cent stake will trigger New Zealand takeover rules, obliging the buyer to make a takeover offer to all TrustPower shareholders on the same terms.
But a takeover bid would have little chance of success because Infratil and the Tauranga Energy Consumers Trust, with 28.6 per cent, said yesterday they were long-term shareholders in TrustPower.
Other options for a buyer to avoid making a takeover bid include seeking approval from TrustPower shareholders to hold 23.8 per cent.
Infratil, as an associated party with Alliant, would not vote.
Another option would be for the buyer of the TrustPower stake to keep 19.9 per cent and sell the other 3.9 per cent.
Asked if Infratil would be a bidder, he said: "It's a question we can't really answer at the moment.
"I think there's a price level at which Infratil would be interested.
The buyer would have to step into the shoes of Alliant under the investment agreement till it expired in March 2007.
Alliant Energy International president John Peterson said the stake could be sold to one trade buyer, to several, or to a consortium of buyers. ABN Amro was exploring putting together an institutional syndicate.
Alliant would like to complete the sale 30 to 60 days before the end of the year but that depended on what approval processes were needed.
At yesterday's market price of $6.86, the stake is worth about $515 million.

[Snow Leopard]

Been on the up since the Toddys' post.
It will be interesting to see which way the TrustPower sale unfolds, but independent of that IFT is not getting the attention it deserves.
i.e. I think that it is worth holding onto my stake in this company.

[Caesius]

Agreed. No one seems to be talking about this stock. What's with the super high P/E?

[Snow Leopard]

Infratil is one of those companies for which the P/E is a totally meaningless KPI.
This is a company which invests in other companies and accounting profits/losses swing widely depending on whether they have sold anything and what they sold in the current financial year*.
[Note to self: to what extent will IFRS change this?]
Meanwhile the dividend is not that bad so it is a question of whether you believe that IFT are investing in the right areas for future growth.

*there is no substitute for having a grip on what your investments actually do and reading and understanding the financial bits of the company reports

[Rif-Raf]

In the meantime, they have enjoyed a tidy little gain (part realised) on the run up from last weeks news on their POT holding.

Did anyone read the interview with one of their managers talking about the potential of the Kent deal. Basically reiterating the point that given the value of airports servicing London, long term upside potential is massive making it a good punt. My feeling is that in years to come there's a good chance that we could be looking back asking how they managed to buy such a strategic asset for basically next to nothing. This is one of the reasons why PE is not that useful when measuring this stock

[Caesius]

Thank you Rif-Raf, PT.

That is, really a very useful bit of info; P/E isn't always meaningful. I'm off to ponder it.

[Caesius]

http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/8469/iftcopylj3.jpg
This a breakout?

[Snow Leopard]

depends whether you believe in: flags, pennants, banners, symmetric triangles, assymmetric triangles, wedges, wedgies, resistance levels, support levels, arbitrary levels, making the data fit the facts, making the facts fit the data, one size fits all, no size fits anyone, uptrends, downtrends, no trends, trading ranges, efficient markets, inefficient markets, insider trading, outsider trading, inside-out trading, outside-in trading, tops, double tops, triple tops, head and shoulder patterns, wearing you top inside-out, wearing your top outside-in, bottoms, double bottoms, wearing your pants inside-out, wearing your pants outside-in, cup and saucer patterns, cup and handle patterns, mugs, bottles, drinking from a cup and saucer, drinking from a mug, drinking straight from the bottle, any of the stuff that kittydashword posts, any of the stuff that phaedrus posts and lastly but by no means leastly any of the stuff posted by Paper Tiger.

Edit: knew I would not get it all right first time ;)

[Rif-Raf]

Who knows, the market's been strong this week.
I'm sure the Alliant/Trustpower situation is the key driver of activity. The TPW price has been a bit weaker, one way or the other I'm sure their exit will create an opportunity for IFT with that investment. The other issue that I beleive was weighing on the SP was bird flu fears which you don't hear much about these days.

[COLIN]

I think the market has also been a bit concerned at the likely effect on Wellington Airport's profits if Quantas/Air NZ get approval for their code share scheme which they seem to be doggedly pursuing.

[beacon]

Very nice PT. Starts my morning with a smile.
Regards

[Caesius]

Down 3.2% on what looks like HUGE volumes. Maybe not a breakout lol.

[Caesius]

What do you make of this http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=138510?

Is this announcement the cause of the gigantic fall today?

Or was it Wellington Airport's increased fees? - I thought that particular announcement would have a $positive$ effect on the SP.

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by hiawatha

Who are Arrowhead Energy? Are they a new company?
They seem to have a website which is still under construction.
hiawatha


Austral Pacific Energy Ltd. ("Austral Pacific") announced today that it has
signed a heads of agreement to acquire all the shares of Arrowhead Energy
Limited ("Arrowhead"), a small, privately held, New Zealand oil and gas
exploration and production company, for net NZ$17 million (US$11.0 million).

Arrowhead's principal assets include a 33% interest in the Cheal oil field
(PMP 38156), a 33% interest in the surrounding exploration permit (PEP
38738-01) and a 25% interest in the Kahili mining permit (PMP 38153).

[Caesius]

Why has the landing charges debate caused the SP to drop?

AFAIK increased charges = increased revenue = increased SP???

[zigzag]

Mike lee has been mouthing off about the ports issue, and also about Aucland buses. Could be making people nervous.

[Caesius]

Check out the volume today! What does this mean?

[Caesius]

That last post sounds like I'm expecting something good...

No, I'm just curious as to who's buying/selling $5,368,785 worth of IFT shares.

[oscar74]

Yes, but why didn't that volume push the price up?

[Caesius]

quote:Yes, but why didn't that volume push the price up?

Why would it?

[Caesius]

5.7% jump today after increased holding in Trustpower. Interesting.

[Toddy]

Trustpower will now form part of the IFT accounts, cashflows, depreciation, the works. Time to rework those valuation spreadsheets.

The IFT interim accounts are due out any day soon and should help consolidate the current SP. Im picking further upward movement to come.

Note that the warrants have never been cheaper.

[Rif-Raf]

Not much comment on the as I guess it's only a half a billion $deal!
I guess everyones trying to work out what this is worth to IFT. They're saying the implied price is about $6.20 or 11.5% below the market price of $7 so that's around $50m below market - not bad!

The market certainly likes it, up another 15c today so far.
The timing of the Stern report is also a big vote of confidence for TPW/IFT too.

Yet another smart investment by IFT[^]

[Rif-Raf]

Infratil Airports Europe: October 2006 Traffic Statistics
Glasgow Prestwick Airport
Glasgow Prestwick handled a total of 226,304 passengers in October, a 2%
increase on the prior year.
Freight volume of 2,896 tonnes is GPA's best result since December 2004,
driven by strong volumes across all scheduled carriers, with Atlas/Polar
having a particularly good month. British Airways World Cargo services began
towards the end of the month.

Kent International Airport
Kent International Airport handled 2,509 tonnes of freight in October, a
record month and a 48.5% ahead of the corresponding month last year.
This strong growth is due in part to the European winter approaching, with
increased volumes of fresh produce being imported from Africa. However,
export volumes (368 tonnes) are also growing, partly due to the increasing
confidence that airlines have in Kent's team and its ability to deliver
quality service in both import and export functions.

Luebeck Airport
Scheduled passenger numbers in October, at 63,824, were marginally down on
the prior year 64,385. Load factors were stronger on all routes than in
September, with a slight softness on the prior year.


I'm encouraged by the above especially the bit about Kent. I'm convinced that is going to be an outstanding investment in the long run.

[Toddy]

Looking good for Wellington International Airport too.

Watchdog deals blow to codeshare


Nov 3, 2006

A competition watchdog has dealt a major blow to plans by Air New Zealand and Qantas to code share on the transtasman route.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission issued a draft decision denying the plan.

It says the proposed agreement would allow Qantas and Air New Zealand to co-ordinate all transtasman activities, including holding meetings to determine schedules and prices.

The commission's chairman Graeme Samuel says the deal would fundamentally change the competitive process.

He says the commission considers the agreement would only result in limited public benefits in the form of cost savings to the airlines as well as marginal improvements in schedule spread, connectivity and frequent flyer options.

The commission is now seeking submissions on Friday's draft decision before making a final determination.

[Toddy]

IFT is set for a great few years ahead........ 'The next 12 months should start to see some of the fruit from the efforts that have gone into the businesses that have cost us significantly to date,'Mr Morrison said.

Infratil profit drop 'in line with expectations'
14 November 2006

Wellington infrastructure investor Infratil has reported a 21 per cent drop in tax-paid profit for the six months to September.


But chief executive Lloyd Morrison said the $11.8 million profit was in line with expectations. The market agreed and shares closed 15 cents up at $4.90.

The consolidation of bus and ferry operator Stagecoach lifted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation to $66.6 million, from $39.1 million the same time last year.

Consolidated assets were $1.76 billion, more than $700 million higher, "so quite a big change in the structure of the business", Mr Morrison said.

A dividend of 5c a share would be paid on January 19, unchanged from a year ago.

Mr Morrison said cash flow included depreciation and amortisation of $22.2 million, up $7.1 million, as a result of recent investments.

Interest costs were $11.3 million higher, reflecting the increased debt funding for new investments.

"The next 12 months should start to see some of the fruit from the efforts that have gone into the businesses that have cost us significantly to date," Mr Morrison said.

The company expects to open an offer of new Perpetual Infratil Infrastructure Bonds to raise at least $100 million.

The bonds would have no maturity date and an initial yield of 9 per cent.

Two weeks ago, Infratil agreed to pay $445 million to increase its ownership of TrustPower from 35 per cent to nearly 59 per cent. It will sell some of the shares and retain a 50.1 per cent controlling interest.

TrustPower contributed $20.2 million for the half-year.

Recommendations in the recent British Stern report on global warming, if implemented, would bring an increased emphasis on renewable energy generation, Mr Morrison said.

Bus passenger numbers continued to grow in Wellington, and the rate of decline in Auckland was flattening.

Growth in the business had been less than hoped for. Though there appeared to be strong political will and policy intention to get people out of their cars, this was not yet flowing through into action, Mr Morrison said.

A decision has been made to renew Wellington's electric trolley buses for another 20 years.

"Actually finalising agreement seems interminable, so orders for the new electric buses have not yet been made."

Wellington International Airport, which is 66 per cent owned by Infratil, increased its before- tax earnings by 5 per cent through its off-airport retail development and passenger services.

Domestic passenger numbers were flat and trans-Tasman traffic was down slightly.

Wellington airport chief executive Simon Draper said long-term growth would come from passenger growth – which explained its strong stance against the proposed code-share between Air New Zealand and Qantas, and the promotion of long-haul services out of the capital.

The first stage of the $31 million runway safety extension project had been completed at the south end, and work was about to begin to add 90 metres to the northern end.

Wellington airport plans to increase landing fees by 3 per cent a year for the next five years.

Mr Morrison said the $6 million loss by its European airports business – consisting of Glasgow Prestwick, Kent and Lubeck – was also in line with expectations because of the acquisition of Kent and Lubeck airports.

[HarryFlashman]

Aren't IFTWB an absolute bargain at 159c with an intrinsic value of 140c??

... or am I missing something?

Cheers
Harry
Discl: Hold some

[Toddy]

Harry

With just under three years to run on the 2009 warrants you are totally correct. The warrants have never been cheaper and are a good way to leverage into a growth company.

[COLIN]

The warrants are an absolute steal, on these figures. The market is effectively saying that the heads will grow by no more than 19 cents over the next 3 years! A dose of reality is required, here, surely.

[777]

IFT has increased by 60c over the last 3 or so weeks and the warrant a little less. Should the IFT drift down in price due profit taking or simply market sentiment then the warrant will follow them down. We have seen the likes of GPG slip from 270 odd to 240 in the last few months. Nothing wrong with either share but the market decides the value.

[Snow Leopard]

for what it is worth (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10414551)

[Caesius]

I'm always amazed at how little IFT is talked about on these forums.

[Toddy]

TPW special shareholders meeting tomorrow to finalise the IFT/Trust shareholding without launching a full takeover for TPW.

The 'go ahead' should give the IFT SP a little nudge up before the week is out.

[Toddy]

IFT airports update. All sounding more positive than ever.
The market is going to love this given that the airport business has been 'out' of focus for some time.

TPW can take a back seat for a few days.

GENERAL: IFT: Infratil Email Update

18 December 2006
Infratil Email Updates are sent to interested shareholders, analysts, brokers
and other parties who have registered their interest on
http://www.infratil.com

Wellington Airport November 2006 Traffic Statistics

November traffic results were more positive than they have been in recent
months. Domestic passengers grew by 2.6% on last November (flat year to
date), and the domestic load factor in November was 76%. International
passengers were up 11.8% on last November (year to date down 1.3%) with a
load factor of 75% for the month. Both these results are positive signs. Air
New Zealand has announced capacity reductions for a number of cities in
Northern Summer season 2007 (our winter), but the longer term outlook for
international traffic growth remains positive. The prospects for profitable
competition and growth, based on lower cost models, now seem better than they
were earlier this year. Now that the code-share has been dropped, it seems
more likely that Jetstar will expand on the Tasman, there are signs of Virgin
Blue (Pacific Blue) performing better and seeking expansion opportunities,
and Air New Zealand has said that it may revisit its model for the Tasman.

In other developments, Regency Duty Free commenced trading on-schedule on 1
December, despite delays earlier this year resulting from an arbitration with
the incumbent. The first stage of the international terminal development will
be largely complete by end January. Trading at the Airport Retail Park is
well underway with Stage 1 of the centre now almost completely leased. A
number of improvements and expansion of capacity have commenced in the car
park. Finally, Wellington Airport has now received airline responses to its
3% per annum initial pricing proposal and will now consider airline views.
http://www.infratil.com/wial_financial_summary.htm

Infratil Airports Europe: November 2006 Traffic Statistics
Glasgow Prestwick Airport

Glasgow Prestwick handled a total of 161,101 passengers in November against a
prior year total of 166,745.
New services launched throughout 2006 have benefited passenger throughput,
set against a reduction in Ryanair capacity of more than 8,000 seats.

A new four-times-weekly service to Riga, operated by Ryanair, began operating
at the start of the month.

The airport handled 2,872 tonnes of freight which represents a 14% increase
on the prior year total and the second highest monthly total of the calendar
year to date.

There were strong performances from Polar and Panalpina, while tonnage on ad
hoc/charter movements is more than three times the prior year total, helped
in part by four charters carrying whisky to South America.

Kent International Airport

Kent International handled 2,988 tonnes of freight in November making it
another record month, up 16% on October and nearly double the prior year
figure.

Scheduled services by MK Airlines account for 82% of the total tonnage and,
while freight volume is traditionally high at this time of year, exports were
21% up on October and continue to show encouraging signs.

Luebeck Airport

Passenger throughput in November, at 41,708, was marginally down on the prior
year total of 42,623.

Load factors show an 8% increase on 2005 - roughly the same margin by which
overall seat capacity has been reduced over the same period.

Ryanair announced their sixth destination from Luebeck during the month. They
will operate a four-times-weekly service to M****ille in the South of France
from January 2007.

[Toddy]

Interview with Lloyd Morrison. 2007 should be another good year.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/features/iinterviews/article.php/fb001bc4

[living2]

IFT options are real winners

[Toddy]

Agree living2. Its a scary thought to think what the head SP could be on warrant exercise date in 2009.

Don't expect 2007 to be a consolidation year for IFT, I think that management has bigger plans.

[Caesius]

According to the price of the warrants at the moment, people expect IFT heads will grow by 14 cents in the next few years...

[living2]

one of the lowest premiums on conversion prices around and still have almost 3 years to run

[Caesius]

Make that 10 cents now. Wow, the heads are actually catching up to the warrants!?

[Toddy]

Two and a half years ago when these warrants were issued they traded at a premium of 90 cents. The premium should be between 30 and 40 cents based on the current cost of capital.

10 cents.......

[living2]

What is your guesstimate for head shares and warrants when they are due to be taken up?
My guestimate:Shares $7.50,warrants$4.00
Disclosure:Bought lots of IFTWB 2 months ago

[Romer]

Bu*ger. Why didn't you buy some for me as well?

[living2]

sorry romer,they were hard to pick up in any volume as it was as only small volumes traded BUT my point regarding the last post(i could easily be accused of ramping these)is what are they going to be worth in 2009 when the warrents are due to be paid up ie my guestimate ,head shares worth $7.50,warrants worth $4.00

[Footsie]

i bought my warrants at 75c back in late 2005

sorry just felt the need to boast!

:D:D

[living2]

A boast or not complements to you Footsie

[Toddy]

Footsie

What kind of volumes did you buy (obviously worth boasting about)

[CJ]

quote:Originally posted by Footsie

i bought my warrants at 75c back in late 2005

sorry just felt the need to boast!

:D:D


Well IFT gave me some for free!!! Unfortunately not enough so I topped up at 91c sometime in the past 12m I think.

[Toddy]

There is something up with IFT. The SP movements today were unusual.

Buyers at $5.61.

If there is something in the behaviour then we could be in for a few interesting days ahead.

[Caesius]

Spotted this one too. Average email update and then this price movement.

[Caesius]

8 minutes in and buyers at 5.65

[Caesius]

This never ceases to amaze me; heads @ $5.7, warrants at @ $2.3.

A massive 10c rise in heads predicted.

[gisborne_gold]

Caesius are you referring to the relationship between the warrant price and heads price?

One could equally predict a drop in the warrants to bring things back into alignment?

[Toddy]

Gisborne Gold

You are forgetting sbout the cost of capital on the leverage. Money is no free. The warrants are significantly underpriced at $2.30.
On confirmation that the head SP will hold at these levels then the warrant will jump approx 15 cents before close today (or there abouts).

[gisborne_gold]

Thanks Toddy. There wasn't a lot of science in my previous post, I hadn't quite understood what Caesius was getting at and was hoping for a clarification as to what it was that was amazing.

Intuitively I would have said the same as you, that the warrants are undervalued relative to the heads but I hadn't got as far as doing a valuation calculation to substantiate it.

[gisborne_gold]

OK I took a proper look at what Black-Scholes might give me as a value for IFTWB.

If I adjust for the IFT dividend yield and the dilutionary effect of the warrants I calculate a valuation for IFTWB in the $2.12 to $2.20, which is below current buy bids which sit at $2.34. Is IFTWB in fact over-priced, contrary to what we've been saying?

[living2]

This is still my prediction as a rock bottom minimum prices for head shares and warrants>Anyone else like to predict?
What is your guesstimate for head shares and warrants when they are due to be taken up? ie 2009
My guestimate:Shares $7.50,warrants$4.00
Disclosure:Bought lots of IFTWB 2 months ago

[gisborne_gold]

How many are lots? Do you have some to share?

OK I'll make a guess. IFT $8.50 at the time the warrants expire.

[Toddy]

Well done living2.
I sold down 25,000 a couple of weeks ago to help balance out my portfolio. However I still have a significant holding.

There seems to be a raid going on (block building) by some insto.
I watch IFT very closely and have not seen this kind of activity for a number of years. I'm quietly confident that IFT is now on the radar of some major players.

As for future price, I think that the the head shares will head north at the usual 20% pa until warrant exercise date. That makes the potential warrant price too scary to mention.

Even the wet summer and full hydro lakes in NZ will not hold back the consolidation of IFT. The company has too many other ace cards yet to play.

[living2]

I agree Toddy.A lot of aces in their hand>I consider IFT to have over taken BIL,then GPGin the past now Fischer fund may be ahead of IFT

[COLIN]

quote:Originally posted by gisborne_gold

OK I took a proper look at what Black-Scholes might give me as a value for IFTWB.

If I adjust for the IFT dividend yield and the dilutionary effect of the warrants I calculate a valuation for IFTWB in the $2.12 to $2.20, which is below current buy bids which sit at $2.34. Is IFTWB in fact over-priced, contrary to what we've been saying?



Interesting, GG. I am not really au fait with the way the Black-Scholes methodology works but I am a little surprised that it doesn't place the value of the warrants at a greater margin above the heads, given (a) that the warrants have two and a half years to run, (b) the rate of increase in the market price of the heads, and (c) the fact that the dilutionary effect of the warrants should already be built into the market price of the heads. (Even allowing for the divs on the heads).

DISC: Have held heads and warrants for some length of time, and am seriously debating whether I should switch entirely from the heads to the "tails".

[rmbbrave]

NZ's Infratil buys 51 pc of Perth Energy
NZPA | Monday, 29 January 2007

Wellington-based Infratil said today it had bought a stake in one of three electricity retailers in Western Australia for $A7 million ($NZ7.86 million).

Its Infratil Energy Australia (IEA) unit is buying 51 per cent of Perth Energy Pty through the issue of new shares.

Largely owned by a handful of management and executives, Perth Energy was established in 1999 and has been trading profitably since 2005.

IEA chief executive Darryl Flukes, who will take up the position of chairman of Perth Energy, said the investment fitted perfectly with Infratil's growth aspirations in Australia.

Mr Flukes said the Western Australian energy market had just been deregulated, but currently lacked contestable residential customers.

"It's very very early days compared to eastern states and New Zealand in terms of contestable customers."

One of the attractions of Perth Energy, which has 50 large customers, was a well-advanced project for a 90 megawatt gas plant.

"Certainly we're going to be well-placed with Perth Energy to be able to take on a larger customer base," he said.

"I can't say we've set a target for customer numbers, just as many as we can get while they remain profitable."

Perth Energy managing director Ky Cao said his company was pleased to have found a strong financial backer with experience in both retail and generation.

Perth Energy had no plans to market or install renewable generation, but most of its supply comes from the renewable source of landfill gas.

Infratil Australia was on the lookout for affordable generation assets to complement its growing eastern retail base, Mr Flukes said.

"We've found that the prices at which existing plant has been changing hands we haven't been able to make that work. We're just finding it more effective to build rather than purchase at the moment."

Infratil had not identified any investment opportunities outside the energy industry.

Shares in Infratil, which recently upped its stake in energy retailer and generator TrustPower to 50.5 per cent, were down 2c at $5.61.

[Rif-Raf]

A small investment, but good news nonetheless as their track record in creating huge value out of electricity assets is impressive.

[living2]

Anyone else want to share price 2009???
$10.00 maybe????

[Footsie]

i've held the warrants since 2005
mangaged to buy at 75c

i sold on friday.....

nice gains and i feel the nz market will run out of puff sometime soon....
esp the large caps which have had 30%+ gains in 6 months

i'd buy back in if IFT went sub $5

[Toddy]

1.4 mil shares traded at $5.95 early this afternoon. Whoever is buying is obviously very serious about building a useful position.

[Footsie]

Again i believe the buyer is fisher...... i note its just been added to their list of stocks they hold......

give these guys another 10 years and they will control all the growth stocks in NZ !!!

[CJ]

quote:Originally posted by Footsie

Again i believe the buyer is fisher...... i note its just been added to their list of stocks they hold......
An investment company holding and investment company? mmm

The purchase of the new energy company looks like a good move.

[Rif-Raf]

Energy assets are doing extremely well, TPW now over $8 - pretty tidy gain for IFT in only 6 months.

However their airport investments which have underperformed a bit in recent times are set for a good run with the falls in oil. Purchase of Kent set to be a stellar long term investment.

In short all current investments looking good with no duds

[Toddy]

The technical boys out there will be keeping a close eye on the IFT SP today. Will the current buyers be prepared to test the $6 mark.

[Caesius]

Wow, the buyers have really cleared out on the warrants, the highest bidder is at 2.36 with a market price of 2.65.

[COLIN]

quote:Originally posted by Caesius

Wow, the buyers have really cleared out on the warrants, the highest bidder is at 2.36 with a market price of 2.65.

Their closing price of 2.50 means a premium of only 20c above the heads, which means the market is saying that IFT share price will increase by only 3.4% over the next two and a half years! That rate of growth would be well out of line with the progress of IFT over the years. Either the share price is too high or the warrant price is too low.
Maybe the market has become unsettled about the Stagecoach investment, after IFT's recently expressed concerns about the Government's attitude to public passenger transport policy?

[Rif-Raf]

quote:Originally posted by COLIN


quote:Originally posted by Caesius

Wow, the buyers have really cleared out on the warrants, the highest bidder is at 2.36 with a market price of 2.65.

Their closing price of 2.50 means a premium of only 20c above the heads, which means the market is saying that IFT share price will increase by only 3.4% over the next two and a half years! That rate of growth would be well out of line with the progress of IFT over the years. Either the share price is too high or the warrant price is too low.
Maybe the market has become unsettled about the Stagecoach investment, after IFT's recently expressed concerns about the Government's attitude to public passenger transport policy?

The warrants often move in the opposite direction of the heads and the variance jumps around.

I wouldn't read too much into the stagecoach talk, IFT are outstanding at lobbying government

[gisborne_gold]

quote:Originally posted by COLIN
Interesting, GG. I am not really au fait with the way the Black-Scholes methodology works but I am a little surprised that it doesn't place the value of the warrants at a greater margin above the heads, given (a) that the warrants have two and a half years to run, (b) the rate of increase in the market price of the heads, and (c) the fact that the dilutionary effect of the warrants should already be built into the market price of the heads. (Even allowing for the divs on the heads).


Colin you make a good point regarding whether or not the price of the head shares takes into account the dilutionary effect of the outstanding warrants.

I've re-run my Black-Scholes calculations with yesterday's closing prices (IFT $5.80 IFTWB $2.50).

Adjusting for dilution I calculate a warrant value of $2.19.
Not adjusting for dilution I calculate a warrant value of $2.56.

I see several possible conclusions.
1. The prices for IFT and IFTWB are in balance, more or less, and the head share price already incorporates a discount for the warrants' dilutionary effect already.
2. The warrants are overpriced because buyers have forgotten to allow for the dilutionary effect.
3. Black-Scholes isn't a very useful valuation method.

We can't use Infratil's balance sheet to confirm (1) because the shares are trading at well above the $3.22 NTA per share. But it would be nice to think that the market is working and that my earlier IFTWB valuation was incorrect because I needn't have discounted for the dilutionary effect.

[Caesius]

What does anyone make of the latest email update?

[Caesius]

Never mind the update, we're now looking at this: Infratil profits up nearly 4x, meets council about bus problems.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/news/scnews/article.php/c68f0e66

[Caesius]

^^^ Which was a bad announcement, apparently. IFT and IFTWB down quite a bit.

I guess people could be worried about the Europe airports, but all the other investments seem to be on track.

[Rif-Raf]

quote:Originally posted by Caesius

^^^
I guess people could be worried about the Europe airports, but all the other investments seem to be on track.

The europe airports went backwards because the previous year only included a part period of losses from the Kent/Lubeck acquisitions which they said was in line with their expectations.

[CJ]

quote:Originally posted by Caesius

but all the other investments seem to be on track.
That have issues with the buses in that if planned regulation goes ahead, their upside might be limited.

[Toddy]

The buses only make up a minor part of the IFT investment portfolio and will more than pay their way. The airports results were all in line with market expectations (Kent was ahead of expectation).
IFT is mainly an energy company and the result was very pleasing. The pull back in the current share price is primarily due to the SP going up 25% since late last year. Hence, the minor breather.

[Toddy]

Reasonable growth coming out of the airport business during the last month.

Passenger numbers buoyant at Wellington Airport
Email this storyPrint this story 5:00AM Friday March 16, 2007
By Owen Hembry
Passenger numbers are up at Wellington Airport but a lack of capacity growth will constrain demand in the next 12 months, says infrastructure investor Infratil.

Infratil holds a 66 per cent stake in the airport, whose domestic and international passenger numbers rose last month by 4.2 per cent and 8.8 per cent respectively.

Load factors - the percentage of seats filled - were well ahead of last year and the airport expected a lack of capacity growth to constrain buoyant demand for travel in the next year.

Infratil said the experience at Wellington was just part of a bigger picture including an imbalance between demand and supply.

"There is an airline boom under way supported by high demand, constrained supply and, not surprisingly under those circumstances, significant increases in average fares."

February passenger numbers were up 6 per cent on last year at Glasgow Prestwick Airport and up nearly 30 per cent at Luebeck Airport.

Freight handled at Kent International Airport was up nearly 50 per cent on last year at 2408 tonnes.


Infratil's shares closed down 3c yesterday at $5.47.

[Caesius]

Still can't work out if this is a good or bad announcement. And I've read it three times.

[Toddy]

Caesius

When reading the NZ airport statistics remember to ignore the customery IFT dig at Air NZ. IFT has an international airport portfolio and like to highlight how small minded Air NZ is in its approach to growing the market within NZ.

The report was all positive except for the plans of a dodgy budget airline that pulled out of the proposed States flights from KIA.

They are making very good progress in the freight department. However, I do not know how freight tonnage flows through to the bottom line.

[Caesius]

As Borat would say, "Wa-wa-wee-wa". Check out the volumes thru IFTWB today. Does this have anything to do with the Vic Energy announcement?

[Toddy]

The extremely healthy volumes continue in IFT.

Interesting Herald article below.

Debate over second Auckland airport turns nasty


The public debate over a planned second airport for Auckland has turned nasty with one mayor accusing the country's largest airport company of "foul" and dishonest tactics.

Waitakere mayor Bob Harvey said he was staggered the Auckland International Airport Limited (AIAL) had given $19,000 to the Whenuapai Airport Action Group (WAAG) which he called a small ginger group opposed to a second commercial airport at the Whenuapai air base when the air force moved out.

Mr Harvey, whose council formed a commercial venture with Infratil and other local councils to promote Whenuapai as a second commercial airport, said they had long suspected the action group was being funded by "foul means rather than fair.

"AIAL is the business equivalent of the Exclusive Brethren," he said.

It was "a major listed New Zealand company hiding behind a supposed community group, acting out of total self interest, and trying to keep it all secret".

He said they were taking legal advice and considering a complaint to the Commerce Commission.


Advertisement
Advertisement"AIAL has clearly been working in an anti-competitive way to undermine our project and protect their monopoly."

However, AIAL chief executive Don Huse, said his company wanted to promote debate on the issue and give a voice to public concern.

He said there was nothing secret about the financial or advisory support AIAL had given to WAAG or any community group.

He said the debate on the future of Whenuapai was of national and regional importance and his company had absolutely and utterly complied with the "very clear legislative and regulatory obligations" and had done nothing wrong.

"It is a debate that is important for all people in Auckland and in fact more broadly across New Zealand."

He said WAAG wanted to represent a local view, and did not have the resources of Waitakere City Council and Infratil. The council and Infratil had spent "enormous sums of money" on the due process, he said.

"We are happy to help out to help the debate be as informed and as open as possible."

He said the council was promoting an outcome and the challenge was for the community voices which opposed the plan, to be heard.

"I would be very concerned as a matter of principle if the voice of community interest was in any way to be stifled.

"They (Waitakere City Council) have a commercial interest in what is being promoted here and it strikes me they also have to listen to the community.

"It seems to me to be pretty telling that they are critical of any assistance being given, small as it may be, to community interests to register their concerns.

"Is that really democracy?" he said.

He said AIAL "absolutely refutes" any suggestion it had not acted openly and honestly.

- NZPA

[Caesius]

Interesting read, I'd like to see some major announcements from Infratil's way.

[Toddy]

The IFT warrants are looking very cheap based on todays head share price.

[gisborne_gold]

I agree they're undervalued.
My valuation model, based on an IFT price of $6.14, assesses the warrants at $2.92 whereas the last trade was at $2.81.

[Caesius]

Make that 6.17 now... What's caused this?

[Toddy]

Whats caused this.

There could be a number of reasons. The volumes and current price trend started early January and has hardly paused since. It would not surprise me to see a disclosure notice from a new investor sometime in the near future.

The movement over the last few days could be associated with Macquries venture into NZ airport assets.

[Caesius]

quote:It would not surprise me to see a disclosure notice from a new investor sometime in the near future.

Interesting. Excuse my lack of knowledge but any guesses on who it could be?

[Toddy]

Caesius

From todays market summary.

'Trustpower majority shareholder Infratil was also up strongly to 10c to $6.25, as rumours of an interested buyer for Wellington Airport emerged'

[Toddy]

Fantastic news.

Wellington to get 61 new trolley buses
Email this storyPrint this story 7:00PM Thursday May 10, 2007

Wellington commuters are to get a more comfortable ride with 61 new trolley buses to hit the capital's roads.

The Greater Wellington Regional Council and NZ Bus signed a contract today for the new-seat trolley buses.

Costing $460,000 each, the buses would not only provide environmental benefits but would be a significant step up in terms of passenger comfort and reliability, council chairman Ian Buchanan said.

Two prototypes would be on the road in August this year, and delivery of the remainder of the fleet would take place over two years starting in February next year.

NZ Bus CEO Bill Rae said they were working on other improvements that would make Wellingtonians' trips more reliable and pleasant.

Green Party MP Sue Kedgley said she was delighted a Wellington icon had been saved.

Trolley buses were a quiet, sustainable form of transport using renewable energy sources and did not emit pollution, she said.

[Anna Naum]

Apparently an airport in England has been sold to private equity at more than twice what IFT has valued its airports at. Maybe they are going to sell the lot.

[lakeside]

Looks OK AR and the share split and another warrent giveaway should put even more of a rocket under things.

Initially IFTWB have gone up and IFT holding own.

IFT
14/05/2007
FLLYR

REL: 1205 HRS Infratil Limited

FLLYR: IFT: Infratil Results for Year Ended 31 March 2007

Infratil had a successful year as measured by returns to shareholders,
transactions undertaken and progress at each of its businesses.

Developments at TrustPower and Infratil Energy Australia were especially
notable. Wellington Airport and Energy Developments were solid performers.

There was progress at Infratil Airports Europe, NZ Bus and the co-investment
agreement with NZ Superannuation and it is hoped that each will translate
into future value uplift and hence returns.

Infratil's goal is a 20% per annum after tax return to shareholders and this
was achieved in the year to 31 March 2007. Imputed dividends of 12.5 cents
per share were paid and the share price rose 31%.

RESULTS
For the year to 31 March 2007, Infratil's earnings before interest,
depreciation, amortisations, realisations and tax were $145.2 million (2006
$77.6 million).
Earnings before interest, tax and realisations were $91.3 million (2006 $53.5
million).
Net profit was $34.7 million (2006 $8.0 million).

FINANCIAL POSITION
As at 31 March 2007, total consolidated assets were $3,730 million (2006
$1,705 million). Consolidated equity was $1,686 million (2006 $793 million).
Net group bank debt was $548 million (2006 $253 million) and subordinated
bond debt was $941 million (2006 $482 million).

Net bank borrowing of Infratil and its wholly owned subsidiaries was $192
million (2006 $140 million) and $730 million (2006 $482 million) of
Infrastructure Bonds were on issue.
Infratil's shareholders' funds, after minorities, were $875 million (2006
$666 million). When listed investments are included at market values
shareholders' funds were $1,616 million (2006 $1,159 million).

Consolidation of TrustPower for the first time and a number of "one-off"
transactions make it difficult to compare consolidated figures at 31 March
2007 with the prior year. The attached results breakdown and commentary
should be read in conjunction with the financial statements.

WIN-WIN-WIN : EMPLOYEES & COMMUNITIES
As a long term investor Infratil believes that its employees and communities
(including customers) must also "win" if it is going to continue to be
successful for its capital providers.

Achieving wins for these three groups will not necessarily occur
coincidentally. However, over the longer term, each of capital providers,
employees and communities must benefit from their interaction with Infratil
if it is to be successful.

Infratil's involvement in the Community Awards with Waitakere City, the
Wellington Community Trust and TrustPower; its support of the Wellington
Marine Education Centre; the support of NZ Bus for Starship Hospital, North
Shore Netball, the Karori Sanctuary, Wellington Zoo and Cuba Street Carnival
are all tangible indications of Infratil's reinvestment into its communities.

At each of its businesses Infratil is supporting initiatives to invest in
employees and to enhance their working environments. Infratil's businesses
are also investing to provide better services and facilities for their
customers and communities.

POLICY & SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT
Infratil's businesses have high levels of community involvement or
partnership. They are also in sectors of political sensitivity and interest.
Interactions over the last year have been constructive and complementary.

Local partnerships include with Wellington City (Wellington Airport),
Waitakere, North Shore and Rodney Councils (Whenuapai Airport), Tauranga
Energy Community Trust (TrustPower), Greater Wellington Regional Council
(Wellington buses), A

[COLIN]

I nominate Lloyd Morrison as "Man of the Decade". Here is someone who delivers year after year, who senses the pulse of business as well as human aspirations, and who no-one seems to love to hate. He is one of the most astute businessmen around, and I only wish that I had more than the 15% of my portfolio tied to the fortunes of IFT.

[living2]

Author Topic Page: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 of 20
living2
Member



New Zealand
57 Posts
Posted - 21/12/2006 : 4:53:34 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What is your guesstimate for head shares and warrants when they are due to be taken up?
My guestimate:Shares $7.50,warrants$4.00
Disclosure:Bought lots of IFTWB 2 months ago
Nice one,looking good

[Toddy]

I'll be opening the bubbly tonight.

Congratulations to IFT and the management.

[Toddy]

I've read the below passage about 10 times today.

IFTWC..... 'sweet'

Infratil intends to undertake a 1 for 1 share split so that the total number of shares on issue in Infratil doubles and immediately after the share split, a free one for ten pro-rata issue of 5 year equity warrants will be made to all shareholders and existing warrant holders.

Key terms of the new warrants are likely to be:

Exercise price : $4.25 (NB. The warrant issue is post the share split.)

Final maturity : June 2012

[Toddy]

Infratil eyes up Aussie energy sector
By ANDREW JANES - The Dominion Post | Tuesday, 15 May 2007

Infratil said it was eyeing opportunities in the Australian energy sector as it delivered an annual after-tax profit more than four times as big as the year before.


The Wellington-based infrastructure investor posted an after-tax profit of $34.7 million for the year to March 31, compared with $8 million in the March 2006 year.

But the two results were not directly comparable, mainly because Infratil lifted its stake in TrustPower from 35 per cent to 51 per cent during the year.

Infratil's share price closed 30 cents up at $6.45.

Infratil singled out TrustPower and its Australian energy subsidiary Infratil Energy Australia as having lifted performance. TrustPower made a $36.5 million contribution to Infratil's result, compared with $28.6 million the year before.

Commenting on TrustPower's specialisation in renewable energy generation, such as wind and hydro, Infratil managing director Lloyd Morrison said: "I think it (renewables) is a very good place to have a lot of assets."

The British Government's Stern Report, published last year, had created a tipping point that should translate into government policy to favour renewable electricity generation, Mr Morrison said.

"If we are lucky we should have some positive surprises."

Infratil Energy Australia generated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of $9.6 million, compared with a $2.2 million loss the previous year.

IEA increased its gas and electricity retail customers from 77,000 to 186,000 during the year and its generation capacity from 40 to 70 megawatts.

Mr Morrison said Infratil was looking at more generation acquisitions in Australia.

"We hope to have an extra 150MW of generation over there by this time next year."

At some stage in the next five years there would be a larger generation acquisition there, he said.

Infratil also expects to increase its involvement in the Australian energy sector through TrustPower, which is developing a wind farm in South Australia.

"Over time TrustPower will ease its way into Australia," Mr Morrison said. "Certainly we will support that. We see the Snowtown (wind farm) development in Australia as the beginning of more exposure to that market." He expected TrustPower would do well in electricity retailing in Australia.

Wellington Airport, in which Infratil has a 66 per cent stake, posted an ebitda of $49.6 million, up from $47 million the year before. The result reflected increased passenger services and property rental incomes but muted traffic growth.

But Infratil's European airports division reported an ebitda loss of $1.9 million, compared with earnings of $1.4 million the year before, and a net loss of $20 million. "We believe we can turn all three airports (Glasgow Prestwick, Kent and Lubeck) into substantive airports," Mr Morrison said. "I think we are making some progress but it's a long, hard, slow job."

Meanwhile NZ Bus, which Infratil bought in November 2005, made a $21 million earnings contribution to Infratil. NZ Bus owns the Stagecoach bus services in Auckland and Wellington and Fullers Ferries in Auckland.

Infratil director Tim Brown said it was not a particularly successful year in terms of increased patronage. But bus passenger numbers in Auckland had grown in the fourth quarter.

Forsyth Barr research head Rob Mercer said it was a solid result. "We like the assets they own."

Infratil had taken a strategic approach to Australia and now had the confidence to push forward.

"They have got the skill base to (expand in Australia) successfully," Mr Mercer said.

[KJ]

quote:Originally posted by Toddy

I've read the below passage about 10 times today.

IFTWC..... 'sweet'

Infratil intends to undertake a 1 for 1 share split so that the total number of shares on issue in Infratil doubles and immediately after the share split, a free one for ten pro-rata issue of 5 year equity warrants will be made to all shareholders and existing warrant holders.

Key terms of the new warrants are likely to be:

Exercise price : $4.25 (NB. The warrant issue is post the share split.)

Final maturity : June 2012


Very good result for IFT with lots of growth ahead.
Seems to me that the new warrants should be a very good investment given the success of past warrant issues.Still kick myself for selling out of IFTWB too soon.
Hold head shares but will look to buy the new warrants.

[COLIN]

quote:Originally posted by trendy

I have never liked IFT. The management contract with Morrison is not transparent. The IFT Board is effectively filled with Morrison management so is not very independent. What happens if IFT ever needed to renegotiate the management contract...they would end up negotiating with themselves (which is probably what they do now). So what is the management contract with Morrison worth? Maybe IFT could take a lesson from the property trust company structure and put the management contract up for tender. It could be worth a lot to shareholders.

Now the other issue I have with IFT is that they issued warrants with a strike price of $3.50 supposedly for the company to get additional capital for future investments. Yet here they are using capital for the share buy back program. Talk about a money go round. That would be the equivalent of NOG having a share buy back program on the heads and taking the money from the options to fund it. NUTS!




Interesting to go back to some of the earlier posts on this thread, like this one posted exactly two years ago.
Is Trendy still around? Wonder if he would say the same today? (Mind you, I probably wouldn't necessarily like to be reminded of everything I have said on this forum over the years!)
My average purchase price for the IFTWB's, bought soon after they were issued, was about 77c. I see that, on today's figures, the value of my holding has increased by about 380%. There are very few other investments I have made which have beaten that, over the same time frame, so I'll definitely be interested in picking up more than my allocation of IFTWC's.
I have also held IFT heads since about the time the coy was first floated, and they have also done very well, but not as exceptional as the warrants - I particularly like the long-dated nature of these, which is long enough to encompass normal business cycles.

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by COLIN


Interesting to go back to some of the earlier posts on this thread, like this one posted exactly two years ago.
[/quote]

I recall getting criticised for suggesting IFTWB were worth over a dollar at one time, but hey, hindsight is a great thing, is it not ?

[Toddy]

The only grizzle I have is that I sold down 150,000 warrants in February (when the market was being sold off) at an average price of $2.38 to help fund the purchase of our kiwi fruit farm.

Lets talk about the future. IFT management once again sound more positive than ever about the future prospects of the company. They have invested in growth sectors. The new warrants on issue have a better chance of out performing any previous issues as the company has a substantial asset base to grow even faster than ever before.

Maybe its time to sell the house and buy IFT derivatives......

[Toddy]

'Infratil rose 14c to 680 on a higher than normal, $2.8 million turnover. Mr Porter said Infratil might be benefiting from the international sale of airport assets, but its share price was only back to the point it was after its strong result.'

I would have thought that a better reason would have been that 7 June is the record date for the share split and 8 June for the free warrants.

[Toddy]

Everyone holding the heads and B warrants at the close of the market today are entitled to the new C warrant bonus issue on a 1 for 10 basis.

Anyone like to guess what they will trade at on Monday. The B warrants started off in the 40-50 cent range.

My pick, 40 cents per warrant. Purely based on a discounted cost of capital basis.

[KJ]

My guess is probably higher given the success of other warrant issues-maybe up to 60 cents.I would prefer 40cents.

[Toddy]

IFTWC

Bidders at 56 cents.
Offers at 70 cents.

This is the only exciting thing happening for me today.

[Caesius]

Damn, when I divide my IFTWB holding by 10 the resulting IFTWCs don't seem too much!

Oh well, I'm quite tempted to buy some IFTWCs. Apart from being longer term, what are some advantages to the WCs? Would there be a logical reason to sell WBs to buy WCs?

[QOH]

I sold 50% of my B warrants on Friday, was hoping to buy some C's today, looking too expensive for me at this point. Would prefer to buy back some more B's if they drop a bit more.

[Sideshow Bob]

Probably many holders haven't got in the post confirmation of their IFTWC holding, so a few more might come on the market later.

[Caesius]

Infratil Email Update
12 June 2007
Infratil Email Updates are sent to interested shareholders, analysts, brokers and other parties who have registered their interest on http://www.infratil.com

Wellington Airport May 2007 Traffic Statistics
International passengers grew by 11.4% in May against a decline of seats of 1.8%. Growth to South East Queensland was particularly strong, and Melbourne grew strongly as well, despite an 11% fall in seats on that route. Overall international load factor for the month was 72%, up 8 points on May last year. Domestic passengers fell by 1.0% in May against last year, with seats down 6.6% and a load factor of 73% (69% last year).

In retail, work has commenced on a new landside duty free store for Regency, which opened its airside stores last December. Kia Kaha and the new Oceanic Arts stores have opened, and tenders are underway for new concessions for souvenirs/gifts, news and books and music.

Consultations with airlines may complete in the next few weeks with further exchanges of material and proposals completed in May. The most recent proposal was for a 2.85% increase in landing charges each year for the next five years, with the international departure fee held constant over that period.
http://www.infratil.com/wial_financial_summary.htm

Infratil Airports Europe May 2007 Traffic Statistics
http://www.infratil.com/gpia_financial_summary.htm

Glasgow Prestwick Airport
Glasgow Prestwick handled 216,533 passengers in May 2007 - this represents increases of 6% on April and 4% on the prior year.

The strong showing was helped by a large influx of charter traffic carrying football supporters for the UEFA Cup Final during the month.

Upwards of 20 additional flights carrying more than 5,000 supporters of Espanyol FC passed through Glasgow Prestwick in the space of 24 hours, while many more travelled on existing Ryanair services.

The whole UEFA operation required a great deal of planning, which ultimately paid off as it was a great success in showcasing the event capabilities of Glasgow and the airport. Successful events such as these strengthen Glasgow's prospects of hosting the Commonwealth Games in 2014

Wizz Air and transavia.com services continue to perform well, while domestic routes remain weaker possibly as a result of the Government's APD rise.

Glasgow Prestwick handled 2,571 tonnes of freight during May, a 6% improvement on the same month in 2006.


Kent International Airport
Kent International handled 2,665 tonnes of freight in May, a strong year on year increase of more than 80% and a 20% improvement on April's total.

The airport's summer passenger charter operation, operated by Kent Escapes, began on May 3 and is serving three popular holiday destinations in Spain and Portugal.


Luebeck Airport
Luebeck handled 53,028 passengers during May 2007, a 7% drop on April figures and 17% down on the prior year total.

This is mainly due to an expected reduction in frequency on the Milan, Pisa and Dublin routes operated by Ryanair.

However, Ryanair announced a new service to one of their most popular destinations during the month. Girona (Barcelona) will be served three times a week from L?beck when flights commence on October 30.

[Snow Leopard]

My shock at the near halving of the share price from a couple of months ago [:0] has given way to the joy of discovering I now should have twice as many shares :) AND some new warrants [:p].

And to think that I was seriously considering selling out sometime ago [B)].

I recently became a customer of Victoria Electricity and so far have received seperate three copies of the welcome pack. Hopefully we can expect them to improve their operating margins in the future.

[Toddy]

IFT is well positioned to take advantage when carbon trading arrives. A joint Aussie/NZ trading system is exactly what we need.

Joining forces on carbon trading
Page 1 of 2 View as a single page 5:00AM Monday June 18, 2007
By Greg Ansley


John Howard has recently announced his intention to introduce carbon trading.

Climate Change
Calculator taken off ministry website
Plea to stop atolls sinking into Pacific
Apec meetings
Apec unlikely to be carbon trading bloc
Fran O'Sullivan: Climate top of Howard list
New Zealand and Australia will work closely together in the development of carbon-trading systems, with the potential to develop a model for similar systems throughout the region.

Pushed by New Zealand and the more recent conversion to climate change by Australian Prime Minister John Howard, emissions trading will also be discussed at September's Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in Sydney.

Wellington has been recognised in Australia as a global leader in climate-change policies, with its carbon-neutral ambitions and its decision to set up a greenhouse gas emissions trading system by the middle of next year.

With the added emphasis of a looming election this year in which the environment has become a central issue, Howard this month accepted the recommendations of an inquiry into climate change and also announced his intention to introduce carbon trading.

Although he has refused to set an emissions-reduction target until after the election, Howard has been moving fast to catch up with Labor's environmental lead.


Both played a prominent role in last week's five-day trade mission led by Clark and Economic Development Minister Trevor Mallard to Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney.

In Brisbane, Clark and Premier Peter Beattie agreed to accelerate co-operation in several key areas of climate-change science, including the development of clean-burning coal and moves to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by farm animals which comprise 50 per cent of New Zealand's emissions profile.

Important differences remain in transtasman approaches to climate change.

New Zealand has ratified the Kyoto Protocols setting down targets for emissions reduction, while Canberra has steadfastly refused ratification.


Howard's conservative Coalition Government also supports nuclear power as a greenhouse-friendly alternative energy source despite bitter controversy, and believes Australia should work towards its own nuclear industry.

Wellington remains opposed to nuclear energy.

But Canberra - which has also discussed compatible carbon-trading systems with Canada - will now work closely with New Zealand on emissions trading.

"It has been agreed to establish a working group of officials from the two countries to ensure that as each of us moves towards an emissions trading system in our two countries, we achieve as much compatibility and harmonisation as possible, and as much acceptance of common standards as might be possible," Howard said after meeting Clark.

[CJ]

quote:Originally posted by Toddy

IFT is well positioned to take advantage when carbon trading arrives. A joint Aussie/NZ trading system is exactly what we need.
Just out of interest, why do you say this.

Is it just because Trustpower has a few wind turbines or am I missing something else.

(NZ Bus is upgrading their fleet so I assume they are the low carbon Euro 4 standard??)

[Rif-Raf]

Isn't IFT one of the jv companies planning a carbon trading system.

[gisborne_gold]

quote:Originally posted by QOH

I sold 50% of my B warrants on Friday, was hoping to buy some C's today, looking too expensive for me at this point.


I concur that IFTWC looks too expensive.

At current prices (IFT 3.27, IFTWB 1.65, IFTWC .70) it appears to me that the C warrants are not just a little bit expensive; they appear to be trading at far above fair value.

Using the Black-Scholes algorithms, I calculate that IFTWB fair value is around 1.55. IFTWB is trading at around a 5% premium.

The same calculation applied to the C warrants shows a fair value for IFTWC of around 0.40. IFTWC at 0.70 is at a 75% premium.

If I had more IFTWC warrants, I'd be selling while the selling's good.

[Caesius]

Just read the annual rep. Lyold Morrison is a man I admire.

Find me another company that lies the cards on the table and tells shareholders it's trying for a 20% return pa.

[lakeside]

SLPF say 15% but also say they are conservative/ safety focused.

[Toddy]

Just printing off the annual report now. I'm not a happy man as I'm rural delivery. I've send an email asking why the annual report cannot be posted on their internet site as soon as they disclose that it has been sent.

Sold all of my c warrants in the 80's and have been buying b's today at $1.55. Will look at c's in the future when they represent better value.

[boysy]

whos willing to hold onto there INFWC s i wonder how high they will go in short term anyway? any comments would be appreciated

[Caesius]

Lakeside, excuse my ignorance, but what is SLPF?

[QOH]

I sold my C warrants yesterday, had a good run out of them. Like Toddy I see better value in the Bs at the moment, would get back into Cs again if the price goes down.

[OldRider]

I have a spreadsheet that measures growth compared to risk for NZX and ASX companies I follow. Essentially it shows companies whose price is growing regularly and steadily with the least variation from the growth path.

Today the top three places were filled by IFT -ITFWB and IFTWC. A good sign for the company.

[boysy]

could u purhaps post the graph or give me a link cheers

[KJ]

quote:Originally posted by boysy

whos willing to hold onto there INFWC s i wonder how high they will go in short term anyway? any comments would be appreciated


Sold half today-will look to buy "B" warrants which look good value.

[lakeside]

quote:Originally posted by Caesius

Lakeside, excuse my ignorance, but what is SLPF?


St laurence Property & Finance Its a property fund on unlisted thet will convert 100 million odd fixed interest notes to shares on Dec 2008. There are quite a few similarities with IFT although they are more property & finance than infrastructure and they are perhaps less developed as an equity investment (and I don't know what they will look like in 2 yrs eg NZX, Unlisted or whatever) and don't have the international investments.

But they have a good leader in Kevin Podmore, have said they must acheive 15% annual return without much risk and are a NZ company going places which is why i mentioned them in this thread as a cf to IFT.

[lakeside]

Back to the subject why has the IFT price shot up over the last 6 months - what has changed?

It's still a growth stock, low yield with overseas exposure in a high dollar environment, got great assets.

But it was that when a buy back was going on for $2.

Is it the carbon credits, or the new tax regime or
Kingfish buying? The warrants gave it a kick.

Great company though.

[lakeside]

Just read the report - they make big of the CO2 thing and energy is their big asset.
Exiting Port of Tauranga might have helped.
The Govt super cooperation would have done no harm to IFTs assets.
So what is the NTA per share - I couldn't find it.
Will all those warrants limit the price in the future?
How much higher can the price of electricity go?

[Rif-Raf]

Wow looks like sharetrader followers have just offloaded their C's
I read Toddy's post from yesterday which caused me to have another look at my spreadsheet and when I plugged the numbers I also came to the same conclusions to jumped ship. Then looking at sharetrader seems that a few others have too.

Lakeside, IFT over time go through surges. Over a long period of time they continue to deliver. Jewel in crown is TPW which they now control and is probably the main reason for their latest run.

[Sideshow Bob]

Lucky they still have an airport left after terrorist tried to park inside the terminal with explosives strapped to themselves.

All flights have been cancelled, and they expected 35,000 to pass through the airport that day.

Not good.

[winner69]

I don't think it was Prestwick .... planes still landing at Prestwick

Appears to be Glasgow Iinternational operated by BAA

[Sideshow Bob]

Cool, thanks.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

I don't think it was Prestwick .... planes still landing at Prestwick

Appears to be Glasgow Iinternational operated by BAA
never the less it looks like a bad day on the share market tomorrow for IFT. Macdunk

[Toddy]

Macdunk

Why would the IFT share price suffer tomorrow?. If anything, Prestwick will probably get more air traffic out of yet another failed attack. The great thing about the size and location of GPIA is that the security is easier to manage than the larger airports.

I lived in London recently for eight years. It will be business as usual tomorrow.

[CJ]

quote:Originally posted by Toddy

Macdunk

I lived in London recently for eight years. It will be business as usual tomorrow.
Business as normal over here. My guess is that tiger Tiger was packed out on Friday night (ie. where the first bomb was found on thrusday night).

[boysy]

is there any particular reason for share price and warrent price falls recently ?

[Rif-Raf]

quote:Originally posted by boysy

is there any particular reason for share price and warrent price falls recently ?

Warrants are always going to move in the general direction of the heads. If s/t is anything to go by, looks like some observers have considered the C warrants got a bit ahead of themselves so may explain that pullback in that particular security.
As to the heads, no big movements there, price drifted back about 10c oiver the last week which is nothing startling. Bit of interest in airport sector comng off the boil after the recent excitement with AIA and MAQ divestments in europe. Terrorist focus in UK airport sector. Other than that not a lot of news which is often the cause of drifting price for any share.

[Toddy]

The current SP drift in an interesting one. Maybe a few profit takers after the recent run of gains.

This is how I see the current position of IFT.

NZ buses. Making good progress, new buses for Wellington, more bums on seats as the oil price continues to climb, and making the right noises with local government in Auckland.

Airports. Wellington looks after itself and grows year after year, the retail side is very exciting. International, the brand continues to build and the underlying asset value is there for everyone to see. Cashflow positive which is the main thing.

Trustpower. Spot electricity prices have been lower than last year. I'm not too sure how this will translate into the bottom line as we can only guess the extent of their forward contracts. There is new generation capacity coming on stream and new projects in the pipeline. In theory the TPW SP already has these built into todays price.

Energy Developments. Now that all of their projects are back under control we have seen a good run in the ENE SP over recent weeks. It looks like the market loves the ENE story again.

Infratil Energy Australia. The annual report talks about the forward contract price locked in at A$40 per MWh. This should directly translate into super profits given the entent of the Victorian dry summer.

Debt is locked in for the medium to long term and is at a reasonable level, the high kiwi dollar does not effect daily operations and with the introduction CO2 emissions legislation coming up, the outlook for IFT is 'business as usual' translatng into the goal of 20% PA after tax return for its shareholders.

I will be able to attend my first IFT agm on August 6. Based on previous AGM's it will be relatively low profile.

[Phaedrus]

Boysy, This post is an attempt to put your concern over IFT's current "weakness" into perspective.

You can see from the chart that IFT is in a steady longterm uptrend. This uptrend is so steady that it would be a waste of time trying to trade its secondary trends. In other words, this is a stock to buy and hold longterm, for as long as the uptrend continues. Now, IFT has been rising at around 27%pa for the last few years so your system should be such that it would not have triggered a Sell signal over this period. IFT is a low volatility stock and you certainly don't want to be flicked out of it by a premature Sell signal triggered by an overly sensitive indicator. You need to give the stock room to breath. How much room? Well, if you are using a simple percentage based trailing stop, it would need to be set at 15%. This is the minimum level required to have kept you in IFT for the last 5 years or so. So long as price action is above this, it is business as usual.

In short, you are expressing concern over a completely normal, very routine retracement of only about 9%. I assume that you are a longterm investor in IFT. As such, you can't be worrying over every little flicker of the shareprice and anxiously enquiring as to possible reasons for such movement. So long as price action is above the 15% trailing stop as plotted here, worry not.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/IFT74.gif

[Toddy]

Phaedrus

I agree, and also follow charting. However, IFT has been hit harder than other stocks over the last six or so trading sessions. I have noted the slide has been on limited volumes, hence the profit takers comment. I am the kind of person though that always has to ask the question 'why'.

[boysy]

cheers thanks for that was just wondering why infratil in particular has taken a bit of a pounding recently

[Caesius]

I've just completed my expert analysis on the email update.

Comparing:
Year to date international passenger growth 8% with seats down 3%

with:
Year to date domestic passenger growth -0.7% with seats down 5%

obviously says something about the health of the domestic market, so do Infratil;

"stronger growth [in the domestic market] is unlikely to be seen unless there is a significant change to the make-up of the domestic airline market"

Which begs two questions:
1) What are the significant changes? A new competitor?
2) How significantly will Infratil be affected if there is no change? I.E. how much do they *depend* on domestic traffic and what will happen if the trend continues?

[KJ]

I think that Wellington airport represents about 3-4% of total IFT assets.Not too significant in the scheme of things.

[Toddy]

Wellington airport has been frustrating for IFT. It has done well to help IFT to get to were it is today, and still provides good cashflows. However, I don't see it playing a major part in the future growth plans of IFT. They have moved on to larger growth assets.

[Sideshow Bob]

Is Whenuapai all over? If Dubai Aerospace get their hands on AIA, then it might help them get it off the ground....

[Toddy]

Sideshow B

Its not all over. IFT has formed a new company along with the local councils with the long term objective of achieving another international airport for the local Auckland region.

Todays events will help for sure. New Zealanders will more than likely back a New Zealand owned and operated airport.

Apart from that, I think that IFT and WCC continously look at the structure currently in place for WIA. I personally would like to see Wellington floated on the NZX in the near future to extract full value for the IFT shareholders.

[CJ]

What is holding back Whenuapai? My udnerstanding is that it is the Govt, a few locals in the flight path (I am sure the airport was their first), and AIA.

If the AIA takeover goes ahead, I see the probablitiy of Whanuapia getting the green light increased significantly.

What % to float for WIA? 33%. I think I am happy to keep it in house. Listing creates costs and more headaches for management.

[Toddy]

Two years still left to go for the B warrants and the premium has all but gone.

[QOH]

Yes Toddy, my IFT B's are the last shares I'd part with at the moment. I had a good run out of the C's and bought back B's.

[Toddy]

The first quarter for TPW is a good result given the low spot prices experienced over the period. The good news is that the Tararua Wind Farm expansion has now been completed and came in 'under' budget.


Thursday, 26 July 2007

TrustPower Limited First Quarter Result for the Three Months Ending 30 June
2007

TrustPower's unaudited after tax surplus for the three months to 30 June 2007
was $32.0 million, compared with $26.2 million for the same period last year.
It should be noted that the result for the period includes a reduction in
tax expense of $7.4 million attributable to a reduction to deferred tax
liability arising from the change in the corporate tax rate from 33 per cent
to 30 per cent effective from 1 April 2008. This adjustment to tax expense
should be considered as one-off in nature. Earnings before Interest, Tax,
Depreciation, Amortisation, and adjustments for financial instruments
("EBITDAF") were $51.3 million versus $53.4 million for the prior period, a
decrease of 4.0 per cent.

The reporting of the first quarter's results to 30 June 2007 represents the
Company's first reporting period in its transition to New Zealand equivalents
to International Financial Reporting Standards ("NZIFRS"). As part of this
process TrustPower is required to restate its opening balance sheet as at 1
April 2006 and provide comparative balances calculated under NZIFRS.

As part of the transition to NZIFRS, the Company has reviewed the lives of
its generation assets. It has been determined that the economic lives of a
number of the Company's civil structures should be extended. As a result,
depreciation charges on these assets will be lower than in prior years.

More financial detail in relation to the NZIFRS transition is provided in
TrustPower's quarterly financial report which has been released to the NZX.

The first quarter trading environment was characterised by weak hydro inflows
but also lower than average electricity spot prices. This was in contrast to
the favourable trading conditions experienced by the Company during the first
quarter of the previous year when there were very good hydro inflows as well
as above average wholesale spot prices for a prolonged period.
TrustPower's own generation assets produced 483 GWh for the quarter versus
520 GWh in the prior period (a decrease of 7.0 per cent). While wind
production was higher than the first quarter of the previous year, hydro
generation was well down on long term average. TrustPower's hydro generation
storage catchments have improved significantly during July which together
with purchase contracts the Company has in place, leaves it well positioned
to meet customer demand over the remainder of the winter.

Customer numbers have remained steady at around 219,000. Total electricity
sold to customers in the quarter totalled 1,147 GWh compared with 1,196 GWh
sold in the prior period.

The Company's balance sheet remains strong. The ratio of debt to debt plus
equity was 31.5 per cent as at 30 June 2007 up slightly from 30 per cent at
the same time the previous year.

The 93 MW expansion of the Tararua Wind Farm is close to commissioning with
all turbines now operational. Final project cost is expected to be around
$174 million (including capitalised interest) which is well under budget.
Construction on the 5 MW Waipori hydro enhancement has ceased over winter but
remains on schedule for completion in December 2007.

Provisional resource consent has been received for the 72 MW Wairau hydro
generation scheme, in Marlborough. However, a further process is required to
determine the specific conditions of the consent which are expected to be
advised by the end of 2007. Once conditions have been finalised, subject to
appeal, the Company will be in a better position to assess project economics
and the next steps to be taken in the developme

[Toddy]

Mangere move 'pushes Whenuapai case'
5:00AM Monday July 30, 2007
By Wayne Thompson
The ownership debate over the airport at Mangere is welcomed by the group who are pushing to get Whenuapai Air Base open for commercial flights.

Any foreign takeover of the international airport would increase the desire for the monopoly to have some competition, said Waitakere Mayor Bob Harvey.

"We say to the Government: Please give us now Whenuapai."

Mr Harvey said there was a strong case and backing for the Government to allow the Air Force to share the base with civil air services and create a second airport for Auckland.

"We think the Government has worked out it's more economic for them to stay on and sell us half of it."

Mr Harvey said the debate over foreign ownership of Auckland Airport had prompted the spotlight to fall on Whenuapai as a way to keep a "foreign owner honest".

The Defence Force has resisted opening its runways to civil use, saying it does not expect to move all its operations to Ohakea until 2015 at the earliest.

Undeterred, Waitakere City Council is preparing to change its district plan to reserve the 273.6ha base for airport purposes in the future.

The council is a shareholder in NorthWest Auckland Airport Ltd with the North Shore City Council, Rodney District Council and publicly listed infrastructure investor Infratil, the majority owner of Wellington Airport.

Mr Harvey said that shareholding and military use gave certainty Whenuapai would remain in New Zealand ownership.

North Shore Mayor George Wood said there was a "strong silent majority" of North Shore residents who wanted to keep Whenuapai for an airport. Rodney Mayor John Law said global interest in Auckland International Airport showed how important airports were.

Enterprise North Shore chairman Ian Watson said a Whenuapai option was supported because of traffic congestion making it difficult to reach the airport at Mangere.

"We also feel that north of the Harbour Bridge is a tourist and event destination in its own right, so an airport would be a positive for that."

A strong advocate for commercial flights from Whenuapai, North Shore lawyer Derek Dallow, said Whenuapai could become a humbler "Kiwibank" version of Auckland International Airport, serving its local area.

[Toddy]

AGM

Is anyone else out there attending the AGM on Monday in Auckland.

[QOH]

Not going to the AGM but they are having two presentations in Wellington area this week. Will go to the Wednesday one.

[Caesius]

QOH, where are these Wellington meetings? I've looked on the website but can't find them...

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by Toddy

Sideshow B

Its not all over. IFT has formed a new company along with the local councils with the long term objective of achieving another international airport for the local Auckland region.

Todays events will help for sure. New Zealanders will more than likely back a New Zealand owned and operated airport.

Apart from that, I think that IFT and WCC continously look at the structure currently in place for WIA. I personally would like to see Wellington floated on the NZX in the near future to extract full value for the IFT shareholders.


Toddy

What a great idea spinning off the airport as a separate company, would think that concept would be well supported, with IFT retaining a meaningful stake of at least 10%, as well as the WCC.

Only problem i can see is, that there is literally no area of expansion for them, unlike AIA, as they are right next to the sea!

I was holding IFT (Heads & B warrants) when the Whenuapai debate was going on, & would love to see that airfield developed thru a public/private Joint Venture.

Might entice me to buy back into IFT.;)

[QOH]

quote:Originally posted by Caesius

QOH, where are these Wellington meetings? I've looked on the website but can't find them...

Wednesday 1st Aug Southwards Otaihanga 5.30pm
Thursday 2nd Aug Te Papa 5.30pm

[QOH]

I attended the presentation to shareholders tonight. Was pretty impressed, they talked the talk anyway.They were asked whether they were interested in Akld airport, were pretty cagey in their reply. I got the impression they could be seriously interested.They admitted stagecoach hadn't performed as they would have liked so far. I wanted to ask but didn't, should I buy up big on B warrants at the current price!!. Also discovered the chairman is a cousin of mine, so all good. Plenty of wine flowing too.

[Toddy]

I guess more of the same...... 20% p.a return year in year out.

Did they mention anything about Lubeck.

[Sideshow Bob]

$1.35 for B warrants - getting keener to top up.....

[Caesius]

Agreed. I wonder if topping up on B warrants could be a "course-related cost". Hmmmmm

[QOH]

I'm trying to top up as we speak.

[Toddy]

Well, Ive been trying to do anything except for watch the share market. Yes, the fishing was good (a benefit of living in the Bay of Plenty).There seems to have been a IFT seller around for about 10 days now. I cannot wait until they are all done and the SP can find some legs again.

Hopefully the agm will do the trick and the tide will turn.

[QOH]

Toddy are you the person who has just come in with a buy of $1.03? I'm beginning to think I'm the only person who has been impressed with the sharemarket presentations this week.

[Toddy]

No, if you want to know who I am then just look at the 'warrant holders' in the annual report.

I'm looking forward to heading up to the AGM. I'm not too sure where/how the presentations fit in to the over all picture. One would have thought that any presentations would come after the AGM.

[QOH]

I think they said they try to do about 8 presentations a year around different parts of the country, basically it was just an overview of the various parts of the company, all PR I guess. I think they were surprised how many people were there.

[Sideshow Bob]

quote:Originally posted by Sideshow Bob

$1.35 for B warrants - getting keener to top up.....


Even better at $1.28.....

[PointyHat]

Thanks Sideshow, I thought I missed the boat on these years back and have followed IFT since. I am in IFTHA's since taking out money from the market and consolidating recently, but never found the WB's, and I think they may be a good entry at some later time, they are now on my watch list. Thanks for mentioning these.

[Steve]

Been a IFT shareholder from the start, receiving the odd bond & warrant allocation over the years. I have just increased my warrants holding thru the shareholder plan, which was nice of them.

These Share Purchase Plans have become very popular in recent times...

[Caesius]

Even better at $1.28.....

Or at 1.20...

[QOH]

Can anyone understand the details of today's rights issue.? It says the exercise price of the B and C warrants will be reduced accordingly. Unless the exercise price of the B warrants is hugely reduced, won't they be almost worthless?
Wondering if I made a big mistake topping up my B's.

[Rif-Raf]

Key issue terms are as follows:
-1:5 renounceable rights issue all shareholders. The exercise price for each
series of warrants (IFTWB & IFTWC) will adjust downwards in accordance with
the formula in the warrant terms.


Agree, it's a bit unclear. One would assume that the terms are all the same, and they mean for the B holders it is a case of pay $1 now and $1 later (not $1.75) which is 75c "downwards"

[Snow Leopard]

What it means is actually what it says. :rolleyes:
Because they are offering some new shares on the cheap (assuming that the recent slide does not continue too far :() which sort of dilutes your existing shares (and thus also warrants) value the exercise price of the warrant will be reduced to compensate for that. If you look at the Warrant Investment Statement (http://www.infratil.com/downloads/pdf/ift_warrants_2007investmentstatement.pdf) you will find the mentioned :confused: formula.

These numbers are illustrative purposes only but fr'instance the B exercise price of $1.75 may become $1.68.
The exercise date will remain the same.

When they doubled the number of shares they halved the exercise price, thing of it has a similar event.

Hope that helps :).

[kissssik]

So can anyone tell me the impact on the heads price over the next wee while, assuming the inetrnational markets play the game........also have a read of the CEO's address at the AGM...a smart guy most yawn when the CEO gets up but most want more after this guy.....he claerly thinks the global markets will sh*t themselves therefore present IFT with the oppotunity to buy up large...I agree....I'm sticking my neck out and say have your money of the table by mis September this year ASX will rally to 6600 and then good by.......I'm not a dooms dayer and hate dickheads who continually coime up with the market going to crash....something I've listen to for years, I base my view on a few experts around me, charting fundamentals and my old mate GANN time/price...So there you go

[D_Pick]

Will this $2 rights issue pull the head shares down further? I think so.

If management feel they need to set the price at a relatively low $2 then I assume that management feel that the current head shares are overpriced and that the market isn't factoring in enough risk? Selling equity cheaply isn't in anyones best interests.

I would have thought IFT could have raised this amount by issuing less new shares at a higher price, like somewhere around the $2.5-$2.80 mark.

[Rif-Raf]

Will this $2 rights issue pull the head shares down further? I think so.

If management feel they need to set the price at a relatively low $2 then I assume that management feel that the current head shares are overpriced and that the market isn't factoring in enough risk? Selling equity cheaply isn't in anyones best interests.

I would have thought IFT could have raised this amount by issuing less new shares at a higher price, like somewhere around the $2.5-$2.80 mark.

Not at all, this is a rights issue not a placement. It always makes sense to offer them at a discount to ensure that their is ample incentive to take up the entitlement. as long as veryone has the opportunity to participate then no one can complain about dilution .
In fact a big issue is companies making rights issues at small discounts to market and not having enough head room for price movements before the issues close.

[Rif-Raf]

What it means is actually what it says. :rolleyes:
Because they are offering some new shares on the cheap (assuming that the recent slide does not continue too far :() which sort of dilutes your existing shares (and thus also warrants) value the exercise price of the warrant will be reduced to compensate for that. If you look at the Warrant Investment Statement (http://www.infratil.com/downloads/pdf/ift_warrants_2007investmentstatement.pdf) you will find the mentioned :confused: formula.

These numbers are illustrative purposes only but fr'instance the B exercise price of $1.75 may become $1.68.
The exercise date will remain the same.

When they doubled the number of shares they halved the exercise price, thing of it has a similar event.

Hope that helps :).

Thanks PT. In other words the dilutionary effect of issue will hold the SP growth a little and for warrants this will be compensated for slightly by the warrants having a slightly reduced excercise price.

[Caesius]

I'm loving this! People betting on a $0.07 growth in the head SP in more than a year.

Why oh why oh why do I have no more money to buy more warrants?

[lissica]

Does anyone know if the warrants are eligible for the rights issue?

[nso]

lissica see post by Paper Tiger above. Warrants participate via a reduced exercise price.
Eg if you shove numbers into the formula published on page 10 of the investment statement {New Ex Price = [Current Ex price - Conversion rate * (head price - rights price + div due) ]/[rights ratio +1]} then (eg for the IFTWC warrants) then old price = $4.25; conv rate = 1 for 1 (one share per warrant); head price in week before ex date (say) = $3.20; rights price =$2.00; div = ignore as recently paid one; rights ratio = 1 for 5.
So a $3.20 head price implies a $4.05 warrant exercise price (in June 2012). Similarly a $3.00 head price implies a $4.0833 exercise price.
Which makes some sense to me as the difference (425 less 405 = 20c or 425 less 408.33 =16.33c) is the same as the difference in value of head shares - eg I have 1000 heads @ $3.20 = $3200; then 1:5 rights at $2.00 each = 200 shares for $400 => 1200 shares all up for $3600 giving an average of $3600/1200 = $3.00 each - difference = 20cents per share = same as for warrant exercise price. In similar vein if heads at $3.00 the 1:5 at $2.00 gives average per head of $3400/1200 = $283.33 or 16.33cps diff - same as for warrant exercise price.

When the new shares are partially paid (up to $1) during first year then I'm not sure how formula ought to altered - inclined not to alter actually, as the extra $1 is callable and does not apply to the shares that warrants convert to. Just guessing this last bit.

[lissica]

Thanks nso, I had to read it a few times but it makes sense! Cheers

[Caesius]

Ok, I need something explained:

IFT buyers at 2.91, last trade 2.92 - fairly stable. As for the IFTWB's, first buyer is at 1.11.

Now, head SP - excerise price = 2.91 - 1.75 = 1.16 (correct?)

So somehow people are valuing the price of IFT shares lower than the price of IFT shares. The same ones.

Why are there IFT buyers at 2.91 when the IFTWB buyers are valuing IFT at (effectively) 2.86? It's always seemed to me like the warrants trailed the heads, not the other way around.

This confuses me...

Disc: IFTWB
Disc: would be buying a lot more if I had any $$$ too.

[living2]

Isn't the IFTWB excise price to be reduced after the cash issue?
DISC:Overweighted in IFTWB

[Caesius]

Could you elaborate on that?

[zigzag]

Ok, I need something explained:

IFT buyers at 2.91, last trade 2.92 - fairly stable. As for the IFTWB's, first buyer is at 1.11.

Now, head SP - excerise price = 2.91 - 1.75 = 1.16 (correct?)

So somehow people are valuing the price of IFT shares lower than the price of IFT shares. The same ones.

Why are there IFT buyers at 2.91 when the IFTWB buyers are valuing IFT at (effectively) 2.86? It's always seemed to me like the warrants trailed the heads, not the other way around.

This confuses me...

Disc: IFTWB
Disc: would be buying a lot more if I had any $$$ too.

Caesius - you have forgotten to factor in the dividend. I don't know the exact timing, but if IFT pays two more dividends before the exercise of the warrants, that could add up to an extra 10-12 cents, which would explain the difference.

[Rif-Raf]

Caesius - you have forgotten to factor in the dividend. I don't know the exact timing, but if IFT pays two more dividends before the exercise of the warrants, that could add up to an extra 10-12 cents, which would explain the difference.

Yes that's true, but then the warrant holders have got less funds invested so the cost of that money will more than make up for the divvies.

I've observed that the correlation between the heads and the warrants often gets a bit out of kilter which I thinik is just realted to market depth largely.

Mildly Negative news , is the judicial review on the Wellington airport landing charges. Also rights issue may be creating a bit of selling pressure for those needing to find the dosh.

On the other hand an article in papers yestrday about how bad Heathrow airport has become with high charges, lack of investment hindering their ability to operate. Airlines and travellers now avoiding Heathrow like the plague. Is this playing into IFT's long terms plans for Kent?

[Kryptor]

Hello, 1st time poster.

I was wondering if someone could help me get the NTA backing for IFT - in particular taking into account all warrants.

Last report stated NTA per share of $3.39.

Any help gratefully recieved.

Regards.

[zigzag]

Hello, 1st time poster.

I was wondering if someone could help me get the NTA backing for IFT - in particular taking into account all warrants.

Last report stated NTA per share of $3.39.

Any help gratefully recieved.

Regards.

When did you get that figure? The annual report put the NTA at $3.10. But given the state of the markets since then it's anybodies guess. I would venture to say, it hasn't increased!

[Kryptor]

Damn. Not last report but from DirectBroking.

If I take the no. shares figure and add the warrants if exercised, then add the NTA to the capital raised by exercising all warrants will that enable me to calculate the diluted NTA?

Apologies for what is probably a dum question but am new to this game.

Regards

[Rif-Raf]

Damn. Not last report but from DirectBroking.

If I take the no. shares figure and add the warrants if exercised, then add the NTA to the capital raised by exercising all warrants will that enable me to calculate the diluted NTA?

Apologies for what is probably a dum question but am new to this game.

Regards

Reported nta can be misleading as many of their investments have been acquired over a long period of time. In June Forbarr valued IFT at $6.59

[Sideshow Bob]

Reported nta can be misleading as many of their investments have been acquired over a long period of time. In June Forbarr valued IFT at $6.59

That would have been pre share split surely?

[zigzag]

That would have been pre share split surely?

That would have most definately been prior to the share split. Also, my figure of $3.10 is probably not correct. I got it from page 26 of the annual report, but there is a note alongside it which has just confused me. So I go to page 91. Divide nett assets by the number of shares and warrants on issue and I get a figure of $3.19. Then we have the issue of the partly paid shares. It's all getting a bit beyond me. It's easy enough to value their listed assets to market, but a lot of their investments are not listed, so I'll just stick to the numbers published in the annual report. Given the current market conditions, the value of their listed assets will also be moving around on a daily basis.

[Rif-Raf]

yes, that would be pre-split and their analyst since upgraded a frther 50c

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/features/iinterviews/article.php/fb001bc4

ShareChat Investor Interview: Infratil's Managing Director Lloyd Morrison

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-Jenny Ruth

Infrastructure investor Infratil can proceed to complete its purchase of Alliant Energy New Zealand, which owns 23.8% of TrustPower and 5.1% of Infratil, now that shareholders have approved a series of transactions.

They will see Infratil place its own shares to other investors and increase its stake in TrustPower to 50.5% from 35%.

Infratil is paying about $445 million for Alliant. It has already arranged to sell 14 million of the TrustPower shares to the Tauranga Energy Consumer Trust for $5.90 a share, or $82.6 million, and placed a further 12.35 million TrustPower shares at $7 a share, or $86.45 million.

It also arranged to sell the 11 million Infratil shares it acquired from Alliant and 2.48 million shares of treasury stock through a placement at $5 a share, or $67.4 million. In mid-November, Forsyth Barr analyst Rob Mercer estimated the transactions added $70 million, or 27 cents a share, to Infratil's net asset value, raising his valuation to $5.73 a share compared to the then $4.90 share price. Since then, Infratil's shares have risen as high as $5.30 while TrustPower's shares have risen as high as $7.95.

Sharechat: Given all the value you've added to the company just in the last couple of months, why do Infratil's shares still trade at such a discount to net asset value?

Infratil managing director Lloyd Morrison: If (the stock) it's going to be re-rated, it's something that will happen over time. If you read most of the analysts' reports, they're all still recommending that we trade at a discount. Most of them are saying the discount's lower than it's been for quite a long time and maybe it should be sold off. I think what happens now is we need new investors to look at it and say, actually, we don't agree with that. If they deliver as they have delivered over the last 12 or 13 years, they're clearly beating their cost of capital and they should trade at a more appropriate level which would be at a premium to our NTA. Another thing a lot of analysts haven't looked at is that a lot of our businesses have optionality in them. The valuation of an option isn't based on NTA it's based on its potential upside.

[Kryptor]

Right - from the 2007 1st quarter results (http://www.infratil.com/downloads/pdf/ift_1qtr_results_breakdown_160807.pdf) - NTA per share after minority interests is $1.24.

I don't understand then the statement from the post above that Infratil trades at a discount to NTA.

NTA $1.24, Shareprice $2.76.

???

[Toddy]

Could IFT put together a deal that would see NZ shareholders maintain control over AIA.
What a smart move getting the 'NZ Super Fund' name all over the AIA share registry.


Manukau to wait on other airport bids

Mayoral candidate Len Brown, who came a close second to Sir Barry in the previous elections, says there is no way Manukau residents would allow their shares to be sold overseas. Rival contenders Arthur Anae and Dick Quax have also indicated their opposition.

But speculation is mounting that locally owned infrastructure company Infratil and the New Zealand Superannuation Fund, which last week declared combined holdings of 6.2 per cent in the airport, may form part of some other bid.

They could team up with a larger buyer, which may even include Dubai, or form a bloc of shares with the 22.8 per cent community stake held by the Manukau and Auckland City Councils to extract a superior offer.

[Placebo]

Well, so long as they can top $3.80, fine :D

Given that IFT is a 66% owner of Wellington airport, I wonder if the Commerce Commission might have some thoughts on them taking a significant stake in AIA?

Received a letter from that nice John Maasland ;) yesterday clarifying some of the reporting around the Dubai offer. Seems that you can take the cash at $3.80 per share up to the maximum DAL is seeking (60%), beyond that current holders get cash plus the new script, value unknown.

From my reading of that the best option might be to sell at $3.80.

[Toddy]

Placebo

Re your Com Com comment. Govt owned AIR vs Govt NZ Super Fund, vs Regionl Govt owned Wellington Airport and Regional Govt owned Auckland Airport.

For once the Com Com may not have a view at all! But then again, we all know the Labour Govts view on the other proposed Auckland Airport.

Is there any such thing as having your cake and eating it too.

[zigzag]

Seems like Air NZ has been reconsidering their opposition to Whenuapai. They are now saying they may support it.

[Zaphod]

It may just be a threat.

There are some significant logistical obstacles to overcome before a split between AirNZ's domestic and international operations could occur.

[Toddy]

So, what is AIR upto. Do they want to be buddies with IFT now.
Air New Zealand plunged 21c, or nearly 9 percent, to 214 on news Virgin Blue will announce details about a new domestic airline on Thursday.



Air NZ taking a more positive look at Whenuapai airport

Air New Zealand has been re-looking at basing some operations at Whenuapai air force base, should the West Auckland airport become available for commercial use.

Air NZ, which along with Auckland International Airport (AIA), originally opposed commercialisation plans of the base, said it has had a team looking at possibilities for Whenuapai over the past couple of months.

"The first stage of the team's work has led the airline to form a more favourable view on the possibilities that Whenuapai may offer our domestic operations in the future," Air NZ spokesman Mike Tod said.

"Our next steps are to investigate the issues around the use of Whenuapai as a dual use domestic airport, including Air New Zealand building and owning its own terminal."

The prospect of using the base was raised in 2002 and three years ago Economic Development Minister Jim Anderton said there was nothing to stop a commercial operator using part of it.

Infrastructure investor Infratil, the majority owner of Wellington International Airport, planned to lease part of the Whenuapai in a joint venture with Waitakere City Council.

However, commercialisation plans were put on ice two years ago when the Defence Force said it would not consider any proposal to lease part of the base for commercial use until nearer 2015, when the air force was scheduled to consolidate operations at Ohakea, in the Manawatu.

Infratil, which this month revealed it had teamed with the NZ Superannuation Fund to take a 6% stake in AIA, planned to invest $50m to upgrade Whenuapai's infrastructure, including a passenger terminal.

Tod did not accept Air NZ had revised its position since it was revealed last month that up to eight parties were reported to be interested in bidding for AIA.

Last month, state-backed Dubai Aerospace Enterprise Ltd (DAE) offered to buy between 51% and 60% of AIA, in a $2.6 billion deal.

Air NZ's relationship with Infratil has been fraught because of Infratil's strong opposition to firstly the airline's plan to ally with Qantas, then its code share arrangement with the Australian airline.

NZPA understands Air NZ had top level talks with Infratil when Air NZ's alliance plan with Qantas was scuttled by regulators.
But the talks were called off when Infratil opposed the code share plan that would have seen flights across the Tasman reduced, particularly from Wellington.

Infratil's Tim Brown said Infratil would have welcomed Air NZ to Whenuapai and had offered it favourable terms. He was unaware of Air NZ's renewed plan.

One difficulty for Air NZ is that it uses AIA as its main hub and its regional dominance comes from feeding off other airlines and its international operations that use that airport.

Even with substantially reduced landing fees, a successful operation out of Whenuapai could dilute its success at AIA.

The Defence Force has opposed joint use of the airport, a position that Infratil has been attempting to modify.

The total rebasing of the air force at Ohakea is seen as a diminishing prospect.

Infratil does not believe the development of Whenuapai will significantly undermine the viability of AIA. It argues a second Auckland airport as attracting different carriers and growing the market.

Whenuapai, which is surrounded by housing, is unlikely to become a major airport as resource consents are likely to restrict operations on night operations.

[Toddy]

Infratil upgraded to a 'buy'
By KATE PERRY - The Dominion Post | Tuesday, 21 August 2007

Investment Research has upgraded its recommendation for infrastructure group Infratil from "neutral" to "buy".

A 36c price fall during the past three weeks has pushed Infratil's shares below the research house's target price of $3.37. Together with the NZ Super Fund, Infratil owns a combined stake of 6.2 per cent in takeover target Auckland International Airport. UBS said in a research commentary it did not expect Infratil to launch a takeover bid for the airport, which is the subject of an offer from interests in Dubai.

"Instead we see Infratil as seeking a strategic shareholding and willing to work with any possible acquirers of AIA or the existing management and shareholder base," UBS said.

The research house said there were no major surprises in Infratil's recent result, apart from an earnings loss from its Australian energy business, Infratil Energy Australia, attributed to high wholesale prices. More than half of the loss related to costs from growing customer numbers.

[Caesius]

It always seem to me that when market sentiment dips, Infratil is hit worse than other big companies. Maybe it's because Infratil is not in the public eye so much as Telecom/Air NZ etc etc.

The possibility of a second Auckland airport is quite exciting.

[Romer]

Hey just checking. Does the rights issue only apply to holders of head shares or do B and C warrant holders get some too????

Has the announcement of the rights issue contributed to the slide in the share price or can it all be attributed to market sentiment???

Oooo where's me old icon gone???? I'll try this one

[Toddy]

Heads only.
IFT has gone through a soft patch due to a combination of things, one of which is the capital raising.

There's plenty of scope for improvement in the SP from here.

[QOH]

Would like your opinion, I've got a fair few "B" warrants. I've only just realised they don't participate in the rights issue. Can you see any upside in them at all now? I'm starting to feel pessimistic about their value now. Wondering if I should sell today and just buy heads next week.

[Toddy]

QOH

Sit tight. The warrants exercise price will be adjusted for the dilution of the capital raising. The warrants offer good leverage and IFT management are experts at adding value to the company.

The only downside is that you have to be brave in more volitile times like now.