IFT - Infratil

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Romer it has not been worth more than next to nothing for last few years

[Anna Naum]

Nice move by Lloyd to pick up a stake in Fisher Funds.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

ANNA NAUM But it does not add anything to value of IFT. Inmy opinion it devalues it as he will have less time to devote to IFT.

[Anna Naum]

Lloyd has a very good track record of adding value over time. I would have thought buying into a funds management operation a year after the market has peaked shows an appreciation of value. Is it the sort of business sector that IFT has invested in previously? No. I would back Lloyd, history suggests he will probably be right.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Anna Naum he did not buy it for IFT but for himself so how is this good for IFT

[Anna Naum]

I thought the stake was purchased by IFT, but you are right, he has kept it for himself, just another reason why it must be a good deal.

[Toddy]

The business overall is in ok shape given the 'crises'. I'm not too sure what the 'market' was looking for. This sums it up for IFT.

'Infratil remains well placed to ride out the current economic conditions, its businesses are in sectors which offer structural advantages as opposed to those where consumption is more discretionary or where suppliers with over-capacity will come under greater pricing pressure.'


Infratil Result for the Six Months ended 30 September 2008
For the six months to 30 September 2008 Infratil's consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and revaluations were $203 million, up from $166 million for the same period last year.

The operating surplus (earnings after interest, depreciation and amortisation) was
$67 million, up from $59 million and the net surplus after tax was $7.3 million, down from $14.5 million for the same period a year ago primarily due to a $13.4 million reduction in derivative valuations.

Net operating cashflows were $42 million up from $21 million in 2007. Discretionary growth capital outlays (excluding working capital) amounted to $235 million with going concern capex of $26 million.

A fully imputed dividend of 2.5 cents per share is to be paid on 15 December 2008 to all shareholders on the register as at 5 December 2008.

BUSINESS RESULTS

CONTRIBUTIONS TO EBITDAF
$ million 6 months to
30 September 2008
6 months to
30 September 2007
Year to
31 March 2008

TrustPower 136.7 116.2 208.0
IEA Group 28.1 7.8 12.0
Wellington Airport 32.2 27.7 60.0
IAE (6.0) 0.0 1.2
NZ Bus 17.8 20.8 41.9
Other, Eliminations, etc. (5.8) (6.8) (7.2)
Total 203.0 165.7 315.9

Infratil's 23% increase in EBITDAF reflected the financial and operating performances at Infratil's core businesses.

TRUSTPOWER delivered record half-year earnings despite facing very difficult generation and spot market conditions over the first quarter. TrustPower's diversity of generation catchments and risk management practices again showed their worth. The contract and spot markets were both effective over the period with price signals influencing the operation of hydro and thermal plants and price-exposed consumers.

WELLINGTON AIRPORT also produced record earnings and cash contribution to Infratil. The Airport's efforts to attract and develop services paid off during the period with continued growth despite the emerging weak economic picture.

INFRATIL ENERGY AUSTRALIA delivered a strong earnings contribution. The result included non-recurring gains but also reflected good risk management, responsiveness to changing market conditions and the increasing scale of the retail operations. However, increasing customer numbers has also increased the seasonality of retail earnings which are heavily weighted towards winter, while in the case of electricity, unit costs are highest over the summer period.

NEW ZEALAND BUS experienced a decline in earnings due to increases in maintenance expenditure required to improve service reliability. Otherwise, increased patronage, fares and regional council contract payments balanced-out higher costs. Notably NZ Bus's road user charges were over $5 million for the period due to a 14% increase in this Government levy.

Snapper, the new ticket and payment system was warmly received in Wellington. Over 30,000 cards were issued and are now being used over 16,000 times a day for transport and merchandise transactions.

INFRATIL AIRPORTS EUROPE recorded an earnings loss of $6 million for the half. This reflected the loss of major freight services at Glasgow and Kent. While the suddenness of the reduction of services meant that the airports have incurred adjustment costs (including bad debts) it is likely that the full year outcome will be consistent with the first half trend.

CAPITAL & RISK MANAGEMENT

The world's capital markets are undergoing their most stressful and difficult period for two generations. Fluctuating asset values and financial system failures have created damage and uncertainty and the economy now faces a potentially prolonged period of recession. Like most listed entities, Infratil's share price has been affected, but the impact, both as regards immediate financial circumstances and the strategic positions of its businesses has been modest. Infratil's goal of delivering good returns to its shareholders is based on:

*Positioning in infrastructure sectors which offer growth and investment outperformance over the long run.

*Proactive management of risk.

On both criteria Infratil's performance over the half year was satisfactory. The return to shareholders was not satisfactory at negative 4%, but global developments were clearly at play in determining Infratil's share price.

Infratil's commitment to risk management is one of its key defining characteristics. Through proactive measures taken in past years Infratil remains comfortably positioned despite the weak economic conditions.

Cashflow Management

Over the six-month period Infratil's consolidated net operating cashflows (that is cash operating income after all expenses including interest and tax) were $42 million.
Discretionary growth capital outlays (excluding working capital) amounted to
$235 million with going concern capex of $26 million.

Funding was provided by $77 million of new equity, $95 million of additional borrowing and a $96 million reduction in cash holdings.

Looking forward, the new realities of the capital markets will impact the group's future growth investment in two ways. The availability of funds will restrict absolute investment while market prices for other utility companies will create benchmarks for the attractiveness of investment in new plant and facilities (whether terminals, turbines or buses).

Capital Management

Over the half year Infratil received $90 million from the second instalment receipt on the shares issued last year and the exercise of warrants, while $14 million was outlaid buying back shares. The buyback reflects the view that of all the investments Infratil has recently reviewed, none has been as attractive as its own shares.

Debt

During the period $140 million of debt facilities were renewed to 2011. Infratil has $174 million of its bank facilities falling due in 2009, being the annual roll of one third of its core banking facilities. IEA also has $54 million of working capital facilities for renewal in 2009.

As at 30 September Infratil had undrawn bank lines and cash deposits amounting to $254 million.

Financial Market Insurance

During the period Infratil recorded a cash gain of $16 million from put options purchased against the S&P500 index. This is as an unusual arrangement for an infrastructure company but it reflects the concern management and directors held for the health of the global capital markets. The insurance was taken against the US share market because it acts as a bellwether, Infratil has no exposure to shares listed outside of New Zealand or Australia. This insurance arrangement was terminated in October and resulted in further cash gains of $17 million which will be recorded in the second half of the 2009 financial year. The total gain from this hedge amounted to $45 million.

BUSINESS CONDITIONS, PLANS, PROSPECTS

All existing businesses and investments are subject to ongoing scrutiny as to their ability to release capital and their long-term growth and return prospects. The outcome of these reviews is likely to influence whether Infratil can be more active with new investment in the near future.

Infratil remains well placed to ride out the current economic conditions, its businesses are in sectors which offer structural advantages as opposed to those where consumption is more discretionary or where suppliers with over-capacity will come under greater pricing pressure. As with past recessions and financial crises, there will be a recovery.

REGULATORY CONDITIONS

The period under review contained a mixed bag of regulatory developments. In its last days, the Labour Government drove several pieces of legislation into law which are likely to be subject to improvement once more thoughtful, less urgent, consideration is brought to bear.

A late change to the Public Transport Management Bill resulted in legislation which allows regional councils to effectively ban all privately provided public transport. Unless the law is corrected, it will stifle development, investment and new services.

New Zealand airports also slipped into being regulated during the final burst of the last Government's legislative activity, notwithstanding official analysis indicating that the airports were the best performing parts of New Zealand's transport infrastructure.

One positive from the late flurry of law making came in the form of the Emission Trading Scheme. While the National led Government has signalled that it will be amended, there is likely to be retention of core features which mean that an international price will be placed on New Zealand's carbon emissions. For the electricity sector the law confirms what has been anticipated and will ensure that the focus of new development continues to be on renewable generation.

Infratil's businesses were also subject to regulatory developments in the Australian retail energy sector relating to carbon reduction and control of retail energy prices. Price caps are a feature of each State's regulation with only Victoria rapidly moving to their removal. The other States face challenges in getting their retail prices to levels that fully reflect costs, which is necessary if investment in new capacity is to occur. It will be even more challenging when carbon is priced into wholesale electricity prices from 2010.

SECTOR TRENDS

The value of Infratil's businesses are driven by underlying trends in urban mobility, renewable energy, air travel and the restructuring Australian energy market.

With the enormous shock the world's finance sector and now real economy is undergoing, it is necessary to ask questions such as "will air traffic grow?", "will people be willing to pay more for energy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions?" and "will better public transport be a preferred solution to urban mobility?".

There will definitely be setbacks. "Edge of city" European airports will increase in value as existing facilities become congested. A slump in aviation growth means congestion is postponed. Generally, however, the factors which led Infratil to its existing sectors continue to pertain. In addition Infratil's businesses exhibit the key attribute of having robust cashflows despite the wider economic circumstances.

Over the medium term Infratil's businesses are well placed to weather current events and to continue their growth programmes. Society wants good infrastructure and governments are encouraging investment in these sectors because of social pressure and to balance declining consumer spending. Infratil's record, expertise and credibility make it a natural partner in such developments. It is also the case that investors remain strongly interested in infrastructure and stabilisation of the credit and capital markets will in due course result in greater confidence in valuations.

PEOPLE & COMMUNITIES

While the immediate priority of management is to conserve financial resources, this does not mean neglecting either the users of Infratil's facilities and services or the people who make them work.

In particular, the New Zealand Bus team deserve special note. This industry is beset with change and our management team are also fundamentally changing the nature of their business. It is no surprise that not all these changes are smoothly implemented and unfortunately some critics see only the glitches. There was one unfortunate brief interlude of industrial action, but in the main our drivers are working with the changes and their support is appreciated.

[QOH]

Wishing Lloyd good luck with his treatment.


19/01/2009
DIRECTOR

REL: 0831 HRS Infratil Limited

DIRECTOR: IFT: Chief Executive Announcement

Monday 19 January 2009

Chief Executive Announcement

The Chairman of Infratil Limited, Mr. David Newman, today announced that
Chief Executive, Lloyd Morrison, will step down from the business for a
period of medical leave. Mr. Morrison has been diagnosed with a form of
leukaemia and has started treatment.

Mr. Morrison will also take leave of absence from his positions as director
of Infratil, TrustPower and Auckland International Airport.

Chief Operating Officer, Marko Bogoievski, has with immediate effect been
appointed as Chief Executive for the period of the medical leave. Mr.
Bogoievski has also been appointed with immediate effect as a director of
Infratil (and determined, for the purposes of the NZX Listing Rules, to be a
non-Independent Director).

Mr. Newman commented: "It is important for Lloyd to focus on his health and
family. Infratil is very well placed with the strength of its businesses and
the depth in the management team. Our thoughts are with Lloyd and his family
and I am sure he will fight this illness with the same determination and
passion he has shown in the business."

[Toddy]

Here's hoping for a swift recovery for Lloyd.

[Rif-Raf]

Wonder what exercising the put option would do to the results and balance sheet? Lots of leverage being used to get the necessary outcomes required or they will bail out.


GENERAL: IFT: Luebeck Airport Update

Infratil has concluded a variation to its shareholders' agreement with the
City of Luebeck with respect to Luebeck Airport. Infratil owns 90% of Luebeck
Airport and the City the balance of 10%.

The shareholders' agreement, signed in 2005 when Infratil acquired its
majority stake from the City, gave Infratil a put option under which it can
require the City to reacquire its 90% shareholding if there were less than
1.2 million passengers at Luebeck Airport during 2008. There were 540,000
passengers in 2008.

The key put option terms are now:

1. The put option may be exercised up until 31 January 2010.
2. Infratil has agreed not to exercise the put option prior to 23 October
2009.
3. If exercised between 23 October and 31 October 2009, the put option price
will be Euro23.5 million plus compensation for approved operating losses at
the Airport incurred during 2009 (up to a maximum of Euro 1.6 million) plus
interest.
4. The City has a call option over Infratil's 90% shareholding exercisable
until 31 October 2009 at the same price and terms as the put option.

Infratil has made no decision on whether to exercise the put option.

In the meantime, Infratil and the Airport continue to await the planning
approval decision that, if successful, would encourage aircraft to be based
at the Airport and allow for significant passenger growth. The planning
decision is expected in the first quarter of 2009.

The Airport is also pleased to note Ryanair's increased services over the
northern summer period. The most significant is the introduction of a daily
Palma (Majorca) service. Majorca is the single most popular holiday
destination for Germans.

[Toddy]

Wonder what exercising the put option would do to the results and balance sheet? Lots of leverage being used to get the necessary outcomes required or they will bail out..


IFT have had years to crunch the numbers. If the planning approval decision does not give them exactly what they require then I'm sure that they will walk away from the deal.

The cash can then be used to buy back the discounted heads.

[ratkin]

Taken a bit of a beating last two days , and now they are putting out lots of announcements about investor roadshows.
Are they about to ask for some money?

[Xerof]

Ratty, they do a roadshow this time each year....well...this is the second one anyway.....

Take a look at their website for details.

[QOH]

[QUOTE=ratkin;244894]Taken a bit of a beating last two days , and now they are putting out lots of announcements about investor roadshows.
Are they about to ask for some money?[/QUOT

If they can get people to pay up on the B warrants which expire around July, that should bring in a decent sum. They need to get the share price comfortably above $1.62.

[Caesius]

http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/IFT/announcements/4867724

Great to see Infratil buying back shares at these low prices.

[QOH]

on how much Infratil will pay to repurchase some of their perpetual bonds. I'd love to get rid of some. Smart move by them to buy them back if they only have to pay somewhere near the recent buy prices. Not that they will get mine at that price.

[whatsup]

Can anyone post the todays update that Ift has released?

[Rif-Raf]

http://www.infratil.com/media/PDF/update_march2009.pdf

[whatsup]

Rif,,,,, thank yoiu 4 that, we can see now that Ift is on the move at last after a long slide, lets hope that it continues!

[whatsup]

IFT up up and away today, the IFTWB"S up 100% in a week, more to come B4 the exercise date in July 09, good hunting.

[Rif-Raf]

Rif,,,,, thank yoiu 4 that, we can see now that Ift is on the move at last after a long slide, lets hope that it continues!

Yes, the update was very good reading and puts to bed some perspective on short term negatives in the context of greater macro trends.

Key investments doing well with just the european airports being the problem. Looks like they will offload Lubeck

Looking at the charts it might be just about to break out too.

At $1.62 this morning the warrants are about to get back in the money so may well convert.

[whatsup]

Why the heavy volumn during the last hour of trading today???

[Rif-Raf]

Charts look pretty positive and with todays close of 165 just over the warrant strike price. Warrants may convert yet which would bring in $150m

[Snow Leopard]

At the moment it is a bit touch and go as whether and how many IFTWB's are converted at $1.62 each.

I was busy selling out of Infratil (amongst others) when the IFTWC were being issued and ended up with 180 of the things (currently worth $7.38!).
Although they have until end of June 2012 for the Infratil heads to get above the $4.12 strike price it seems a fairly unlikely scenario at the current time.

However I do like the look of IFT at the moment from both a fundamental and technical point of view.

regards
Paper Tiger

[Romer]

It's sure going to be to Infratil's advantage to have as many of the B warrants as possible converted on the 10th of July, - - (remember that date?) so I'm sure management will be doing lots in the meantime to emphasise the fact that these shares are currently hugely undervalued.

[Romer]

Infratil Results For The Year Ended 31 March 2009
18 May 2009
Infratil's operational, investment and financing activities delivered good results and were testament to the robustness of Infratil's activities and its financing arrangements. The bottom line reflected accounting treatment of non-cash write downs of listed investments, while overall revaluation of assets were actually positive.

For the year ended 31 March 2009 Infratil’s consolidated earnings (EBITDAF) were $356 million, up 13% from $316 million for the previous year. The operating surplus (earnings after interest, depreciation and amortisation) was $77 million, from $88 million and operating cash flows adjusted for movements in working capital increased to $144 million from $134 million. Investment and capital spending amounted to $300 million, down from $507 million in 2008.

Infratil’s core businesses, TrustPower, Wellington Airport and Infratil Energy Australia delivered improved results while NZ Bus was slightly down. Infratil’s European Airports performed poorly. Higher interest and depreciation charges were due to recent capital spending on enhanced and expanded facilities. Lower investment outflows occurred as new investments were curtailed and discretionary capital spending programmes wound down.

Infratil’s net loss after tax and minority interests rose to $191 million compared with a loss of $2 million in 2008, largely due to $179 million of non-cash write downs associated with listed investments. Overall revaluations were positive, but were mainly taken to Reserves rather than through the Profit and Loss Account.

Infratil’s liquidity and funding position withstood the difficult financial market due to good risk management and proactive positioning.

A fully imputed dividend of 3.75 cents per share is to be paid in July. The dividend is unchanged from last year.

Infratil’s outlook for the 2009/2010 year is for increasing earnings, lower financing costs and reduced net investment.

Infratil operational immediate goals are:
Addressing under-performance. Not all of Infratil’s businesses and investments are providing a satisfactory return and they must be improved, or the capital extracted for better use elsewhere. Infratil will continue to rebalance it’s portfolio between long duration investments, capital growth, and current returns as volatility and the cost of capital rise.

Capital preservation and financial flexibility. Postponing spending where opportunities are durable and only entering into new capital commitments where opportunities are both perishable and of exceptional quality.

Proactive management of risks.

Infratil’s businesses, financing and risk management is undertaken with the over-riding goal of delivering superior risk-adjusted returns to shareholders. The target is 20% p.a. after tax over the long run. Following last year’s fall in share price Infratil is no longer exceeding that long-term target, but the Company has delivered 18% p.a. after tax over the 15 years since its establishment.
This out performance is based on being well positioned in the right sectors, having excellent management, investing to deliver compound growth, and scrupulous attention to risk management. Infratil’s ingredients of success remain intact.



Thoughts anyone? Seems that apart from European airports, results have been pretty much on track, but Infratil has been hit worse than the rest of the market.

[Rif-Raf]

It's sure going to be to Infratil's advantage to have as many of the B warrants as possible converted on the 10th of July, - - (remember that date?) so I'm sure management will be doing lots in the meantime to emphasise the fact that these shares are currently hugely undervalued.

Looks like they are going to vary the payment timing of the warrants so they are in installments. Good news for warrant holders and shares as will minise any overhang at conversion time and will increase conversion.

[Rif-Raf]

Infratil Results For The Year Ended 31 March 2009
18 May 2009
Infratil's operational, investment and financing activities delivered good results and were testament to the robustness of Infratil's activities and its financing arrangements. The bottom line reflected accounting treatment of non-cash write downs of listed investments, while overall revaluation of assets were actually positive.

For the year ended 31 March 2009 Infratil’s consolidated earnings (EBITDAF) were $356 million, up 13% from $316 million for the previous year. The operating surplus (earnings after interest, depreciation and amortisation) was $77 million, from $88 million and operating cash flows adjusted for movements in working capital increased to $144 million from $134 million. Investment and capital spending amounted to $300 million, down from $507 million in 2008.

Infratil’s core businesses, TrustPower, Wellington Airport and Infratil Energy Australia delivered improved results while NZ Bus was slightly down. Infratil’s European Airports performed poorly. Higher interest and depreciation charges were due to recent capital spending on enhanced and expanded facilities. Lower investment outflows occurred as new investments were curtailed and discretionary capital spending programmes wound down.

Infratil’s net loss after tax and minority interests rose to $191 million compared with a loss of $2 million in 2008, largely due to $179 million of non-cash write downs associated with listed investments. Overall revaluations were positive, but were mainly taken to Reserves rather than through the Profit and Loss Account.

Infratil’s liquidity and funding position withstood the difficult financial market due to good risk management and proactive positioning.

A fully imputed dividend of 3.75 cents per share is to be paid in July. The dividend is unchanged from last year.

Infratil’s outlook for the 2009/2010 year is for increasing earnings, lower financing costs and reduced net investment.

Infratil operational immediate goals are:
Addressing under-performance. Not all of Infratil’s businesses and investments are providing a satisfactory return and they must be improved, or the capital extracted for better use elsewhere. Infratil will continue to rebalance it’s portfolio between long duration investments, capital growth, and current returns as volatility and the cost of capital rise.

Capital preservation and financial flexibility. Postponing spending where opportunities are durable and only entering into new capital commitments where opportunities are both perishable and of exceptional quality.

Proactive management of risks.

Infratil’s businesses, financing and risk management is undertaken with the over-riding goal of delivering superior risk-adjusted returns to shareholders. The target is 20% p.a. after tax over the long run. Following last year’s fall in share price Infratil is no longer exceeding that long-term target, but the Company has delivered 18% p.a. after tax over the 15 years since its establishment.
This out performance is based on being well positioned in the right sectors, having excellent management, investing to deliver compound growth, and scrupulous attention to risk management. Infratil’s ingredients of success remain intact.



Thoughts anyone? Seems that apart from European airports, results have been pretty much on track, but Infratil has been hit worse than the rest of the market.

Yep Europe airports is where the probelms are. They'll dispose of Lubeck and get their money back. Interesting news about interest shown in Kent solving Londons problems, but will be a long term play there and will lose medium term.

TPW - good results and of course this is where 50% of their assets are. They don't want to make too much of a song and dance about this investment due how unpopular power companies are for their big profits. Also uncertainties in the carbon trading will delay rerating for them having the renewals angle.

Energy Aus - this is a good story but growth is at the sacrifice of profits.

[whatsup]

IFT group whatsup a trading halt but with all the action today looks like that the cat is out of the bag, somethings cooking re the sale( pending ) of a investment in Aust, looking good never the less.

[Anna Naum]

IFT group whatsup a trading halt but with all the action today looks like that the cat is out of the bag, somethings cooking re the sale( pending ) of a investment in Aust, looking good never the less.

Conditional bid has been made for ENE which I think IFT owns about 32% in

[ratkin]

Hopefully will be a good opportunity for IFT to retire some debt

[whatsup]

Dumb question but how long will they stay halted ?

[whatsup]

Ift ann out but not the one we all want , this one is about splitting the warrant payment.

[macduffy]

Dumb question but how long will they stay halted ?

Not sure of the NZX rule, but in Aust a trading halt can only last for 3 trading days. After that, the share is suspended and all bid/offers are cancelled.
This halt really depends on how long it takes to get the offer for ENE to the market. Shouldn't really take that long unless it's caused by info leaking before the parties are ready for an announcement.

[macduffy]

Not sure of the NZX rule, but in Aust a trading halt can only last for 3 trading days. After that, the share is suspended and all bid/offers are cancelled.
This halt really depends on how long it takes to get the offer for ENE to the market. Shouldn't really take that long unless it's caused by info leaking before the parties are ready for an announcement.

In fact, the ENE announcement implies that this might take some time.
An "incomplete" proposal has been received and requires investigation and consideration by a "committee'.

[whatsup]

Ann out ,trading halt lifted , great deal for IFT and its share price especially prior to the warrants exercise date next month.

[macduffy]

Ann out ,trading halt lifted , great deal for IFT and its share price especially prior to the warrants exercise date next month.

Hmmm. No price agreed for the call option at this stage.

Does anyone know what average price IFT paid for their ENE interest?
I seem to recall that the first chunk was bought at a fairly hefty price, well above recent levels.

[whatsup]

Mac , I thought that in a report somewhere that it was a fairly close call in this particular investment but with this ann they could now be out of the woods.

[Toddy]

Ann out ,trading halt lifted , great deal for IFT and its share price especially prior to the warrants exercise date next month.

The IFTWB extension proposal to be voted on later on in the month will more than likely go through. Hence, the pressure is off the holders having to either sell or find big bucks.

[whatsup]

Great Toddy , now we will have a new class of warrant listed from 11/07/09 a "Partly paid, $ 1.12 , 21/05/2010 Warrant" !!!.

[macduffy]

Mac , I thought that in a report somewhere that it was a fairly close call in this particular investment but with this ann they could now be out of the woods.

ENE traded at $1-56 prior to the halt. IFT look to be still well out of the money at that price -

From the 2008 IFT annual report -

Hold about 28% of ENE - 43m shares approx.
MV of the holding was $207.5m as at 31/3/07, $110.3m as at 31/3/08.
At $110.3m, this represented a "decline of $59.7m from cost".

Therefore cost to IFT was about $170m.
M/V of that holding at $1-56 = AUD67.2m approx, say NZD85m approx.

Have I got it wrong somewhere?

[Caesius]

ENE traded at $1-56 prior to the halt. IFT look to be still well out of the money at that price -

From the 2008 IFT annual report -

Hold about 28% of ENE - 43m shares approx.
MV of the holding was $207.5m as at 31/3/07, $110.3m as at 31/3/08.
At $110.3m, this represented a "decline of $59.7m from cost".

Therefore cost to IFT was about $170m.
M/V of that holding at $1-56 = AUD67.2m approx, say NZD85m approx.

Have I got it wrong somewhere?

Hey macduffy would you mind elaborating on what M/V means in this context? Cheers

[whatsup]

On the lunch time finance reportI think that a spokesman for IFT said that they would accept a price of $2.00 per share which may include a premium for control, as IFT own 32%.

[macduffy]

Hey macduffy would you mind elaborating on what M/V means in this context? Cheers

M/V or MV = Market Value.

In the case of the IFT annual report, I assume it was NZD equivalent as at the relevant dates - 31/3/07 and 31/3/08. (refer pp 23 and 68).
In current valuation, $1-56 was the last trade (AUD).

[macduffy]

On the lunch time finance reportI think that a spokesman for IFT said that they would accept a price of $2.00 per share which may include a premium for control, as IFT own 32%.

According to "The Age", ENE have 154.2m shares on issue so 32% would be 49.3m shares, at $2 per share, $98.6m.

I assume he meant AUD2? But still a fair way short of the cost price.

[whatsup]

Mac ..., any idea as to why the increase in the P M today up in a other wise dull day, Aussie closed today as well.

[macduffy]

Mac ..., any idea as to why the increase in the P M today up in a other wise dull day, Aussie closed today as well.

IFT wrote down the book value of its investment in ENE by $113.7m in the last year to 31/3/09 so it will recoup some of this if it sells at $2 - AUD or NZD - and will show a "profit" on the investment in the current year.
Won't alter the fact that ENE has cost them a lot of money, capital and income foregone, over the past few years.

[COLIN]

Great Toddy , now we will have a new class of warrant listed from 11/07/09 a "Partly paid, $ 1.12 , 21/05/2010 Warrant" !!!.

With IFTWB being back in the money again, and trading at slightly below the heads, seems to me they offer an attractive opportunity for anyone intending to buy into IFT - whose sp is in a recovery mode and the company will be able to strengthen its capital position further with the warrants now likely to be mostly exercised - an outcome which a couple of months ago the company seemed to be accepting was an unlikely outcome.
(For those not fully acquainted with the position, effectively an IFTWB holder will be entitled to one IFT share for each warrant, for payment of only 55c next month, and a further $1.12 in almost a year's time, i.e. a total payment of $1.67. The current IFTWB price is 11c, so all-up it will cost you $1.78 - but bear in mind you will have the use of $1.12 of that money for almost a whole year. Compare that with today's price of around $1.73 for the head shares [last time I looked] and this seems a solid discount, given that there is every likelihood that the IFT price will be well above $2 in a year's time - those who are paying 7c for the IFTWC warrants must certainly think so, given the exercise price of $4.12 for those instruments - I would not be so optimistic as to have faith in the IFT price being above that level by 2012, but who knows!)
DISC: I have to declare an interest in that I am a holder of IFTWB - and am tempted to buy a few more.

[Toddy]

IFT has certainly had a bad run, worse than bad actually. The SP has reflected the mood of the market and one would hope that as confidence climbs then so will the IFT SP.

The timing of the B warrants exercise date could not have been more ill timed, which is reflected in the new arrangement to be voted on 25 June.

If the ENE monkey can be lifted off their back then I'm pretty confident that we can all live with the airport assets underperforming while the travel industry finds its feet again.

There is definately time for the SP to appreciate over the next 12 months to a level that fairly reflects the real risk of the IFT portfolio.

[Caesius]

Bad day for the (boring) NZX but that doesn't seem to be reflected in IFT's SP.

No announcements though. What's driving the rise in the heads?

[whatsup]

Colin, et al , Whats your guess that the new IFT partly paids will sell for once they list next month? July warrants at .15 plus the .55 call = say .85 ( allowing for some leverage)

[lissica]

I'm overseas again. Wondering if anyone can tell me if Infratil will send out a letter regarding how to exercise your warrants? Or is it just a case of sending a cheque to the share registrar with your CSN number?

[COLIN]

Colin, et al , Whats your guess that the new IFT partly paids will sell for once they list next month? July warrants at .15 plus the .55 call = say .85 ( allowing for some leverage)
Whatsup, I have no idea, but I think they will take a while to shake down, given that it will be a rather unusual instrument for the market to assess. But I am sure that, in a short time, it will be greater than the difference between the prevailing price of the ordinary shares and the amount still to be paid to the company - unlike the present aberration in the market.
Your figure of 85c could well be close, but I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out to be higher because I believe the IFT price will maintain its current momentum.

[COLIN]

I'm overseas again. Wondering if anyone can tell me if Infratil will send out a letter regarding how to exercise your warrants? Or is it just a case of sending a cheque to the share registrar with your CSN number?
I am waiting for a letter any day now, because the company has to formally notify holders about the resolutions to be put to the meeting which is not far off. I am sure that the necessary forms will also accompany this notification, asking warrant holders to state which alternative they wish to choose, i.e. full or partial payment.
What we also need to know is the last date at which the present warrants can be traded - which will have to be a few days in advance of the maturity date so that those who purchase on the market can get their cheques to the company on time.

[money maker]

I am waiting for a letter any day now, because the company has to formally notify holders about the resolutions to be put to the meeting which is not far off. I am sure that the necessary forms will also accompany this notification, asking warrant holders to state which alternative they wish to choose, i.e. full or partial payment.
What we also need to know is the last date at which the present warrants can be traded - which will have to be a few days in advance of the maturity date so that those who purchase on the market can get their cheques to the company on time.

The share registry would normally distribute all the neccessary paperwork

[whatsup]

Lissica and Colin, go to the www.infratil.com website and click on "company news ann" and its all there.
Today in the post I received my notice of special meeting in Well for the 25th June re the resolutions asking to vote on the change of terms re the split payment for the exercising of the 10/07/09 warrants.

[COLIN]

Lissica and Colin, go to the www.infratil.com website and click on "company news ann" and its all there.
Today in the post I received my notice of special meeting in Well for the 25th June re the resolutions asking to vote on the change of terms re the split payment for the exercising of the 10/07/09 warrants.
Thanks, W.
Moneymaker - welcome to the forum.

[money maker]

Thank you colin

[OldRider]

I expect Infratil will mail out the required form shortly to enable exercise of the IFTWB warrants, it is available on their website , though not one for the partial payment, iy anyone is concerned at missing out.

[lissica]

I expect Infratil will mail out the required form shortly to enable exercise of the IFTWB warrants, it is available on their website , though not one for the partial payment, iy anyone is concerned at missing out.

Found it! Thanks ^_^

http://tinyurl.com/kj3z7v

[COLIN]

Received my Notice today. Some key info:
- After the 25 June meeting the company will provide us with a further notification of our choices and provide the appropriate exercise forms.
- The existing warrants may be sold through the NZX until Tuesday 7 July. They will be tradeable again from Monday 13 July provided that the 55c has been paid.
- Payment of the 55c must be RECEIVED BY 10 July.

Big question: Can I trust NZ POST?????????? (See my rant under APT, etc.)

[COLIN]

Interesting that Jetstar want the Govt to open Whenuapai to commercial operations. That idea seemed to have been squashed a couple of years back, with AIA jumping up and down, but maybe the new Govt might be more receptive. I am sure that IFT will be quietly plugging away in the background.
Also noticed that ACC have bought up more IFTWB on market.

[Rif-Raf]

Went to investor presentation by Tim Brown.

- Apart from global uncertainty, all looks pretty positive aside of duds poor results of some investments and market pricing of shares.
- B warrants considered major cause of SP slide in last year (in addition to macro factors) which is why they have taken recent actions
- Expect strong earnings lift in next year as benefits of high capex in last 4 years starts to come through combined with very low capex this year ahead
- Debt reduction remains a focus as market has tarnished them with same brush as the likes of BNB so wish to avoid that perception
- Looks like they will be out of ENE soon. Very much in play.
- Very bullish on TPW. Not worried by Brownlees blustering as big generation investment is needed going forward and won't happen if uneconomic.(same comments apply to NZ airports review)
- IEA looks like could be a major earner in next year or two. They are expecting huge margin improvement from current levels as they have been pricing for growth. Also expect to have eventually have 1m customers (currently 400k)
- Euro airports not flash, but losses in last year will not recur as they have restructured. Expect big rebound when cycle eventually changes but dont know when. Will get their money back and holding costs from Lubeck sale $64m
- Wgtn airport, a stellar performer and confident of a continuation due to changes in Australasian air scene.
- Expect further assets sales in stagecoach. Very peeved off with dead wood in this sector. Snapper card still in the running with others for Auckland bus card tender.

All in all things are looking up from a couple of crap years.

[COLIN]

Thanks for that summary, Rif-raf. I agree that the Warrants have probably been a handicap on the sp, and there will be a bit of an overhang to the extent that these are exercised - or partially paid - next month but, once all that has been digested, I would expect to see some steady sp progress (upwards).

[Balance]

Went to investor presentation by Tim Brown.
- Expect further assets sales in stagecoach. Very peeved off with dead wood in this sector. Snapper card still in the running with others for Auckland bus card tender.

All in all things are looking up from a couple of crap years.

Don't like situation with Stagecoach. Ift waxed lyrical when they bought Stagecoach about how wonderful everything was going to be and how the transport set-up in NZ would result in them making heaps. One reason why share price went to record high in 2007. If they read this one so badly wrong, can they be any better at reading other plays?

[Toddy]

Rif-raff

I was intending to go to the presentation but was once again caught up with Zespri discussions as we lost our Kiwifruit crop in the hail last month.

I lobbied IFT earlier in the year re the warrants so would like to think my input helped.

Due to the current low SP and that we have lost our entire income for the next 12 months, I am having to rely on the bank to fund my deposit on the warrants.

I still like IFT but have been caught out being over exposed.

Hoping for better times ahead.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Funny how I was rubbished not so long ago for saying their purchase of the bus companies (especially Stagecoach) was a very large Dog

[Toddy]

An ASX release today states that the non binding Archer Capital offer for 100% of ENE is in the range of AUD $2.40- 2.80 per share.

[COLIN]

An ASX release today states that the non binding Archer Capital offer for 100% of ENE is in the range of AUD $2.40- 2.80 per share.
They also point out that the French offer (for less than 20% of the company's assets) effectively values ENE at well above current M/V.
ENE share price up another 14% so far today, to 210.

[Rif-Raf]

Funny how I was rubbished not so long ago for saying their purchase of the bus companies (especially Stagecoach) was a very large Dog

Calling it a dog is a bit hash espeically in current times. The investment makes good profits, but they have been unable to add any substantial value which is what they would have liked to have done.

[Rif-Raf]

Rif-raff

I was intending to go to the presentation but was once again caught up with Zespri discussions as we lost our Kiwifruit crop in the hail last month.

I lobbied IFT earlier in the year re the warrants so would like to think my input helped.

Due to the current low SP and that we have lost our entire income for the next 12 months, I am having to rely on the bank to fund my deposit on the warrants.

I still like IFT but have been caught out being over exposed.

Hoping for better times ahead.sorry to hear about your crop Toddy. Good work on the lobbying, you are right, someone was listening to you as Tim was quite adament that the B's had been a big monkey around the SP.

[svez01]

Thanks for that summary, Rif-raf. I agree that the Warrants have probably been a handicap on the sp, and there will be a bit of an overhang to the extent that these are exercised - or partially paid - next month but, once all that has been digested, I would expect to see some steady sp progress (upwards).

hi all. sorry im a little new to all of this so please excuse my ignorance. why would would the B warrents have such a negative impact on the value of the underlying shares?

[COLIN]

hi all. sorry im a little new to all of this so please excuse my ignorance. why would would the B warrents have such a negative impact on the value of the underlying shares?

svez01: welcome to the forum.
I believe there are several reasons why the approaching date for exercise of the "B" Warrants would have a negative effect on the share price, but basically they are the following:
1. The "dilutionary" impact. Whenever new shares are issued by a company the net value attributable to the existing shares is impacted. The extent of such impact is determined by the amount being paid by the "new" shareholders, i.e. if this is less than the net value (not necessarily the book value) of the existing shares then there is less of a "shareholder pool" to be spread over all shareholdings. In the case of IFT each new option exercised before 10 July brings $1.62 into the company but the general market consensus would be that the true net value of the shares is well above that figure - particularly if holdings such as Trust Power and Wellington Airport were spun off.
2. Many holders of the Warrants will also be holders of the shares (remember that these Warrants were distributed "free" to all those who took part in the relative capital raising) and a lot of such holders will want to sell enough of their shares to raise cash to enable them to exercise - or partly pay - their Warrants. This puts selling pressure on the shares.
3. Some who exercise their Warrants may then want to sell resultant shares, e.g. institutions - and also individuals - wanting to balance up the weightings in their portfolios. This again puts downwards pressure on the share price.
4. Uncertainty as to just how many of the Warrants will be exercised or partly-paid, and the resultant impact on the company's net cash position. Also, if the share price should fall back below $1.62 at any stage between now and 10 July (it had better not, from my perspective!) there will be no point in Warrant holders exercising their Warrants as they could buy shares more cheaply on the market.

I trust this is of some help.

Cheers.

[Zaphod]

Funny how I was rubbished not so long ago for saying their purchase of the bus companies (especially Stagecoach) was a very large Dog

While NZ Bus has been a moderate performer, the dog(s) in the portfolio are the EU airports. This is where the attention should quite justifiably placed.

[COLIN]

While NZ Bus has been a moderate performer, the dog(s) in the portfolio are the EU airports. This is where the attention should quite justifiably placed.
Well, I seem to have flushed out quite a few IFT detractors! (including on IFTWB thread).
I agree that the European Airports are a bit of a millstone around their necks, and there is unlikely to be much relief in this department any time soon (although they will be getting rid of Lubeck in October, by exercising the put option). However, we need to maintain perspective by surveying the total IFT portfolio, and I have done the following quick (rough) breakdown of the relative earnings contributions from each of the major segments of IFT's business, as at 31/3/09:

Trustpower 73%
Australian Energy 6%
Wgton Airport 18%
Europe Airports (5%)
NZ Bus 11%
Other, elims, etc (3%)

I don't think the breakdown of assets employed in each segment have been published yet (although they may have been made available to those who attended the recent Investor Presentations) but as at 30/9/08 the position was as follows:

Assets: Earnings:

Trustpower 48% 67%
Aust Energy 15% 14%
Wgton Airport 9% 16%
Europe Airports 12% (3%)
NZ Bus 9% 9%
Other, elim, etc 8% (3%)

So, on the half year figures, NZ Bus earnings were in keeping with their allocation of assets. It was a different story with the Europe Airports, but they accounted for only 12% of the total portfolio.

I fully appreciate that this is by no means an in-depth analysis (I'm not paid to do that!) but I just wanted to make the point that, while the Europe Airports are a bit of a problem, don't lose sight of the total picture.
What would a controlling interest in Trustpower be worth, even on today's market?

[whatsup]

Colin, Any idea just how much money IFT gets back if it exercises the put option for Lubeck?

[Rif-Raf]

Yes Euro airports is the dog, but at least they have restructured so losses will reduce.
Colin is quite right, the assets in euro airports is quite modest in the bigger picture at 12% and the Lubeck sale will realise about $60m I think which will reduce this further. The company seems to think that over time growth in aviation always bounces back after a recession to long term high growth trendline and for that reason can't help think that the strategic significance of the Kent airport is going to make it very valuable one day..but not sure when that day that will be!

[whatsup]

Revised offer for ENE last night in Aust up to $2.80 A now but D D will take 2-3 months with a conditional offer at this stage, if successful should net IFT approx $86 mil Kiwi ,that along with the July 09 warrant $ and asset sales should achieve its repaying down of its debt ala Hellaby rerating once its net debt was more manageable.

[macduffy]

Yes, $2.80 would be a better price but would still leave IFT with a solid loss on its ENE investment.
The market's not impressed as far as IFT is concerned, although the ENE SP is moving up, as expected.

[COLIN]

Another piece of good news (from the Annual Report) is that Lloyd Morrison is making good progress.
Actually I expected the IFT price to be down today, following the depressing effects of the jobs situation in the USA as reflected in the Dow. In fact I expected the whole NZX market to be decidedly down today, but I think what has propped it up a little is the weaker US dollar.

[Balance]

Ift starting to look like GPG with its investment track record - where are the winners in recent years?

[winner69]

Its not clear in the announcements but when do Infratil get the cash from the underwriting of the warrants .... say if most front up with the 55 cents in a week or so do FNZ wait until next year to see ehat happens

If thats the case the best case for IFT might be nobody fronts up with the 55 cents and then FNZ front up with the $1.62

Anybody know ... confess haven't researched throughly ,,, only read the IFT announcments

[winner69]

Only a couple of days trading left for the IFTWBs before they go into hibernation for a while

At least this weeks action on the WB pricing seems to have confirmed that a premium on the WBs is never going to be any more than than 10 cents .... at the moment a bit less than that so maybe still some value post the first round of payments

[winner69]

IFT stated target is 'absolute return target of 20% pa. after tax on a long term basis.' from earnings growth over time with businesses reinvesting these earnings and then something about a 'step up' in value.

Anybody know they measure this? And are they achieving this target?

On a BV per share falling short a bit over the least 10 years even though ASB has TSR return over 10 years in excess of 20%pa (assuming pre tax and dividends reinvested)

ENE doesn;t seem to meet these targets

[Balance]

IFT stated target is 'absolute return target of 20% pa. after tax on a long term basis.' from earnings growth over time with businesses reinvesting these earnings and then something about a 'step up' in value.

Anybody know they measure this? And are they achieving this target?

On a BV per share falling short a bit over the least 10 years even though ASB has TSR return over 10 years in excess of 20%pa (assuming pre tax and dividends reinvested)

ENE doesn;t seem to meet these targets

Stage Coach, European airports, Auckland Airport and of course, ENE have all failed to meet targets.

Wonder if IFT has been selling its more liquid investments to pay interest and expenses.

[macduffy]

Ift starting to look like GPG with its investment track record - where are the winners in recent years?

There are huge differences between IFT and GPG, IMO.

IFT's biggest investment by far, Trustpower ( 48% of IFT's assets) had a good year and its SP, while not at record highs, is holding up well. The second biggest, Wellington Airport, is also performing well.

We don't know much about how GPG's biggest investment, Coats, is travelling at present but the vibes certainly aren't as positive as they are for Trustpower.

[winner69]

Bus drivers in wellington had their grubby little hands in the cash box .... but Snapper fixed that .... wonder how much really did go missing ... more than the half mil I'd say

[Brooker]

I'm looking hard at IFT, winner69 can you elaborate on your last comment please?

[winner69]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington/2573229/Drivers-sacked-money-missing

[winner69]

Does anyone know the date when the dividends will be paid? From my understanding it was going to be sometime in July.

Dividend 3.75 cents payable 29th July

Does this mean share price is really only 162 if allow for the dividend

[Brooker]

Thanks W69.

[Zaphod]

Well, I seem to have flushed out quite a few IFT detractors! (including on IFTWB thread).

I agree that the European Airports are a bit of a millstone around their necks, and there is unlikely to be much relief in this department any time soon


That hardly puts me in the detractor camp, especially when you agree with my statement regarding the Euro airports.

AFAIAC, if the asset is performing poorly and it shows no sign of a medium term turn-around, then it should be disposed of as the Euro airports will be.

Some decry NZ Bus being in the portfolio, however as I outlined in my previous post, it has IMO performed moderately well, so does not warrant disposal unless the right price is paid ;)

Well done on the analysis work Colin! Keep it up!

[Zaphod]

Stage Coach, European airports, Auckland Airport and of course, ENE have all failed to meet targets.

In the middle of the recession? Not surprising really, and IMO not necessarily an indictment on the company itself.

[Rif-Raf]

Would any TA guru care to provide a technical viewpoint of where this stock is at the moment?

[kizame]

For the guru,you will have to wait for Pheadras, and I don't know how to post charts but;
IFT has just broken through the upward trendline,and is heading down.
At the moment OBV is still in an upward trend,by the look of some of the other indicators e.g RSI and macd it may be headed for a period of sideways movement.

Sorry this may not have been the chart you wanted,but I'm sure The Guru will come to the rescue.

[Snow Leopard]

I read in the [online] papers that NZ Bus has locked out the workers and you are all trying to squeeze onto the trains.

Obviously not doing Infratil's SP any good.
Maybe it will go up again when peace and industrial harmony resume.

regards
Paper Tiger

[QOH]

I read in the [online] papers that NZ Bus has locked out the workers and you are all trying to squeeze onto the trains.

Obviously not doing Infratil's SP any good.
Maybe it will go up again when peace and industrial harmony resume.

regards
Paper Tiger

I think it will take more than peace and industrial harmony to move the shareprice much. I've found Infratil my most frustrating shares over the last couple of years. Don't know if it's all those B warrants outstanding or Lloyd Morrisons health holding them back.

[tobo]

I wonder how much involvement IFT directors have with the bus lockout - there's a lot of people finding alternative ways to get around that they might just stick with - a week is long enough to embed new travel patterns, so long term business affected as well as loss of 1 week's income.

[CJ]

I wonder how much involvement IFT directors have with the bus lockout - there's a lot of people finding alternative ways to get around that they might just stick with - a week is long enough to embed new travel patterns, so long term business affected as well as loss of 1 week's income.
Agree. On my bus route, most people haven't gone back to cars since the price of petrol was over $2. Once people get into a habit, they stick with it.

[Toddy]

The media coverage is definitely doing damage to the SP. The markets have moved ahead and IFT has gone backwards despite being an infrastructure share.

All of the models show that the impact on bus users has not long term effect. Like eveyone else, I want the workers to life their work to rule and get on with driving the buses.

In tough times like now I would have thought that everyone was lucky to have a job, not hold out for double digit pay rises. If IFT management gives in and then pases on the cost to the Auckland public, then guess who loses.

[macduffy]

There's an old American adage that most strikes occur because both sides want it.

Now it wouldn't be for bigger subsidies, would it?

;)

[Anna Naum]

NZ Bus management quoted as saying they may lift the lockout ban.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Toddy How come the other companies are paying their drivers $1.50 per hour more and more penal rates as well. The council should have just terminated the contract and bought the business for a song. Who else would buy it. And what are employment rules in place for if the employer objects to them obeying them. The management of infratil were crazy to pay over the odds to buy this business it was not for sale. But they made such a riddiculous offer that the owners said thank you very much. The sooner Infatil get out of buses the sooner it will be worth looking at as an investment again.

[Toddy]

Toddy How come the other companies are paying their drivers $1.50 per hour more and more penal rates as well. The council should have just terminated the contract and bought the business for a song. Who else would buy it. And what are employment rules in place for if the employer objects to them obeying them. The management of infratil were crazy to pay over the odds to buy this business it was not for sale. But they made such a riddiculous offer that the owners said thank you very much. The sooner Infatil get out of buses the sooner it will be worth looking at as an investment again.

I agree, the council should not have allowed this to continue. The council should have paid the extra that the drives wanted so that the public did not suffer. They don't have this problem in the Capital.

Bring on the Super City!

[AMR]

TA viewpoint:

Although it is right on support at the moment, the stock does not appear to be under buying pressure, and has completed a bearish pattern on a short time frame. Although longer term it looks better.

[peat]

i tend to think the resistance level at 1.70 ish will be stronger than the support level here at 1.63. I even found a bearish harmonic pattern. another test of lows imho. I'm not saying its anything to do with the buses either , although the current situation seems a bit farcical, its the tea leaves I'm reading and so my opinion should be regarded in that way:rolleyes:

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Toddy why should council subsidise NZ bus more than the other companies that can pay their drivers more. To many high paid managers in NZ Bus & Infratil. I do not wish to pay extra rates to subsidize NZ Bus Just cancel the contract 7 they will come back begging to do it for 20% less as the Auckland branch of NZ bus would be worth stuff all without the contract.

[Toddy]

Toddy why should council subsidise NZ bus more than the other companies that can pay their drivers more. To many high paid managers in NZ Bus & Infratil. I do not wish to pay extra rates to subsidize NZ Bus Just cancel the contract 7 they will come back begging to do it for 20% less as the Auckland branch of NZ bus would be worth stuff all without the contract.

Sure you do Possum, you have always been a big fan of public transport.

[Toddy]

This is better PR for NZ Bus. In todays Herald.

NZ bus was offering the drivers too much money according to the independent ERA who was bought in to sort this mess out.

* Wage rates

Current rates: $14.05c to $16.75c an hour plus time and a quarter overtime.

What the company offered before the lockout: $1.80c an hour increase in three stages over 36 months - 70c now, 50c next year and 60c in 2011

What the Employment Relations Authority recommended last week: $1.40c in two stages over 30 months - 70c now, backdated to July, plus 70c in November next year

[Toddy]

ENE

The ENE board has recommended to reject an AUD $2.65 bid for the entire company. The board has also terminated the U.K/Europe bid.

As the economy has picked up since the initial offer the board is more bullish about ENE's prospects and does not want to give away the company.

The Board is now very positive!

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Toddy who are the members of the ERA are they all well paid professionals with university degrees that have never driven a bus in their lives that are more interested in profits for the company and their fees for appearing? Why did they not bring in new drivers or drive the busses themselves? It seems to me they need to go drive a Bus for a week. And did they declare if they held or did not hold shares or have interests in Infratil shares? Can you tell me why they expected to solve a dispute by recomending less than was allready being offered?

[Rif-Raf]

Toddy who are the members of the ERA are they all well paid professionals with university degrees that have never driven a bus in their lives that are more interested in profits for the company and their fees for appearing? Why did they not bring in new drivers or drive the busses themselves? It seems to me they need to go drive a Bus for a week. And did they declare if they held or did not hold shares or have interests in Infratil shares? Can you tell me why they expected to solve a dispute by recomending less than was allready being offered?

In a recession excessive wage price demands are unrealistic. They suggested a back dated increase but a lower future increase - so holds the overall inflationary increase going forward, but provides a short term bonus for workers. Seems like proposal that attempts to create something for both sides.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

RIF-Raf excessive profits in a recession are also unrealistic other bus companies are paying higher wages & more Penal rates than Infratil's NZ BUS. And more purchasing power in the lower income area reduces borrowing and flows through the economy helping to end the recession.

[COLIN]

RIF-Raf excessive profits in a recession are also unrealistic other bus companies are paying higher wages & more Penal rates than Infratil's NZ BUS. And more purchasing power in the lower income area reduces borrowing and flows through the economy helping to end the recession.

Where are these "excessive profits"? NZ Bus has been underperforming - the weakest link in the IFT chain.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Colin Is it Bad Management or excessive Management Salaries Other bus companies are paying drivers more. Or were Infratil Management dreaming about the profits in running bus companies. In my opinion Infratil has been going backward for years in returns to shareholders.

[Toddy]

Good result from Trustpower today. AIA also on the improve.

TrustPower Limited Unaudited Financial Results for the Six Months Ended 30
September 2009

TrustPower's consolidated underlying surplus after tax excluding fair value
movements on financial instruments, which are inherently volatile, was $72.5
million for the six months ended 30 September 2009 versus $68.3 million in
the previous year; representing an increase of 6%.

EBITDAF increased by 13 per cent to $154.9 million from $136.7 million in the
previous year.

[Toddy]

IFT are starting to get a few ducks back into line. Its slow progress, but atleast IFT have plenty of cash to feed them.



30 October 2009

Sale of Luebeck Airport

Infratil Limited announces that on Friday 30 October it exercised its put
option in respect of its 90% shareholding in Luebeck Airport and ownership
has transferred to the City of Luebeck.

When Infratil acquired this shareholding from the City in 2005 it also
acquired a put option that allowed it to require the City to reacquire this
shareholding if passenger numbers failed to reach an agreed threshold.

The exercise price of the put option is approximately Euro25.5 million (which
converts, after existing foreign exchange contracts, to NZ$64 million), with
payment due in early November.

[Contrarian]

Gidday B

Broke even, Heard the infratil guy on the radio.

[CJ]

Broke even, Heard the infratil guy on the radio.From memory they got a put option at the start so they had no downside from the agreement.

[peat]

hey CJ your memory is pretty good seeing as it was written in the 4th post ahead of you

but I think the answer being sought is more like this

:http://www.infratil.com/content/view/1921/98/

Should the revised planning approval application be unsuccessful, Infratil may put its 90% shareholding back to the City for the initial purchase price plus agreed operating losses, capital expenditure, planning approval costs & interest (option price).

[Toddy]

Gidday B

Broke even, Heard the infratil guy on the radio.

True

But as the losses were put through during previous accounting periods, they will have to book a profit in the p&l this half and take a smoking load of cash to the balance sheet.

The guy on business tv at lunchtime said that IFT are on the hunt for new deals in the market.

[Rif-Raf]

So it was tails. Considering the GFC not the worst outcome ever.
and TPW just keeps quietly delivereing

[whatsup]

True

But as the losses were put through during previous accounting periods, they will have to book a profit in the p&l this half and take a smoking load of cash to the balance sheet.

The guy on business tv at lunchtime said that IFT are on the hunt for new deals in the market.

Dont forget the currency rate on the purchase. IMHO when that is taken to account then there surely is a big loss?

[Toddy]

Dont forget the currency rate on the purchase. IMHO when that is taken to account then there surely is a big loss?

My statement still stands. Any currency movement valuations were booked into the respective accounting periods at the time and the SP moved in response.

So, IFT booked up loses year after year. Then when the option was exrecised any 'refund' has to be booked into this accounting period as a profit.

Its all good, cash back for an investment that did not work. More risk removed from the IFT portfolio.

Its a long way back to the glory days but this is a good start.

[Toddy]

Now IFT and Morrison are looking at Shell's assets............

[rotweiller]

Exclusive negotiations for all of Shell NZ assets also includes NZ Superannuation Fund so could well be a goer.
Cheers

[whatsup]

Exclusive negotiations for all of Shell NZ assets also includes NZ Superannuation Fund so could well be a goer.
Cheers

IFT down on early trading !!!

[Toddy]

IFT down on early trading !!!

I don't think that the market likes companys spending cash. Not sure why, thats the game.

[CJ]

I don't think that the market likes company's spending cash. Not sure why, thats the game.Agree. It is not whether money is spent but whether the price paid is good.

Not sure on the size of the investment but the market may not like the idea of a capital raising to fund the purchase. I guess that depends on the price, the % interest and how much debt they can get access too.

The other issue is how much growth is there in downstream oil?

[jonu]

I'm not sure of the numbers either, but they did just sell an airport, so maybe don't need to raise cash.

[Nevl]

I'm not sure of the numbers either, but they did just sell an airport, so maybe don't need to raise cash.

I think that the superfund may provide the cash and IFT provide the management on a day to day thing. I think it will be a good buy for ift. Good cash flow and steady income. Shame Lubeck never worked out but they got out well with hedged currency exposure so did ok. Looks like IFT is getting ready to go on a bit of a spree.

[CJ]

I think that the superfund may provide the cash and IFT provide the management on a day to day thing. I think it will be a good buy for ift. Good cash flow and steady income. Shame Lubeck never worked out but they got out well with hedged currency exposure so did ok. Looks like IFT is getting ready to go on a bit of a spree.IFT would have to have some skin in the game (ie 33% say) or else it would just be managed by Morrison & Co.

[Nevl]

IFT would have to have some skin in the game (ie 33% say) or else it would just be managed by Morrison & Co.

with the AIA sale this morning it looks as though they have plenty of cash. Expect to see them get the Shell assets now. Shell has being looking to sell for a long time and they are the only bidder. I think they will get a good deal.

[Toddy]

with the AIA sale this morning it looks as though they have plenty of cash. Expect to see them get the Shell assets now. Shell has being looking to sell for a long time and they are the only bidder. I think they will get a good deal.


The word on the street is that IFT's investment in Shell assets would be around the $600 mil range. With todays AIA cash sale then the general view is that IFT 'WILL NOT' be required to go to its shareholdes for further capital.

So, whats with all of the dumping of the stock.

If they can borrow the funds off the bank or via a bond issue and get the Shell assets cheap i.e they more than cover the cost of capital. Then the deal would/should add value to the SP.

Or is this just a case of good old Kiwi insider trading or the likes.

Can anyone enlighten me..........

[Placebo]

So the question is, what is involved in the Shell assets? Is it just the pumping stations or does it involved the share of the refinery as well? Is there land involved? I'd be interested in a bit more detail...

Interesting move by IFT. They are becoming more of a diversified fund, and seem to be changing direction under Borgoevski, when under Morrison's management they were well and truly focussed on true infrastructure. First a bus system, then flogging off some of their airports, now buying petrol stations.

[Aeneas]

Sorry I cant find where this was but the assets Shell is selling are:

17.1% of NZR
25% of fly buys
Retail network (229 retail outlets, 95 truck stops, auckland and christchurch airport refuelling facilites)

[macduffy]

So the question is, what is involved in the Shell assets? Is it just the pumping stations or does it involved the share of the refinery as well? Is there land involved? I'd be interested in a bit more detail...

Interesting move by IFT. They are becoming more of a diversified fund, and seem to be changing direction under Borgoevski, when under Morrison's management they were well and truly focussed on true infrastructure. First a bus system, then flogging off some of their airports, now buying petrol stations.

I don't see it as a move away from IFT's focus on infrastructure but I guess it depends on how that's defined. After all, they sold their stake in POT some years ago - ports are "true" infrasructure?; the investment in ENE has been for sale for some time and it's only a matter of the right price before that goes; the Lubeck airport transaction was structured to be "redeemed" if growth targets weren't met. All these were done or put in place under previous management as was the NZ Bus purchase.

I just hope that they know enough about the oil industry to make the Shell assets pay off. In theory, they have expertise on the board in that regard. Time will tell.

[Toddy]

So the question is, what is involved in the Shell assets? Is it just the pumping stations or does it involved the share of the refinery as well? Is there land involved? I'd be interested in a bit more detail...

Interesting move by IFT. They are becoming more of a diversified fund, and seem to be changing direction under Borgoevski, when under Morrison's management they were well and truly focussed on true infrastructure. First a bus system, then flogging off some of their airports, now buying petrol stations.


I don't think that they are changing direction. Cleaning up after the boom days more like it. Lloyde is still very much involved from all accounts.

IFT need to sort a few things, they need to bring back the quarterly accounts and stop talking about market trends. Their monthly updates don't mean anything useful as only a magician could translate the numbers into bottom line p&l.

Its time to dump the pin striped suits and get back to basics.

[Placebo]

Sorry I cant find where this was but the assets Shell is selling are:

17.1% of NZR
25% of fly buys
Retail network (229 retail outlets, 95 truck stops, auckland and christchurch airport refuelling facilites)

thanks Aeneas. 25% of fly buys, wow. That's been quite a successful venture. The refinery has been a good sound asset for holders (including the fuel industry) for years. Fuel retailing is very low margin.

I think the move is interesting in the sense that they are going from an area where they have some expertise (airports) into an area where they have none (fuel and general retailing). I guess you could say the refinery is an infrastructure asset, but a chain of shops? what next? A cornerstone stake in WHS? ;)

As for the buses, well it's a stretch. I mean, they own airports, would they take a stake in an airline? Having said that, Warren Buffett has just bought a big train set so why not?

[BRICKS]

BRICKS has never been in IFT and now watching them loose 57 million on AIA don't think he will ever line up to BUY there STOCK..

[BRICKS]

BRICKS has never been in IFT and now watching them loose 57 million on AIA don't think he will ever line up to BUY there STOCK..

[deewu]

What's the likelihood of cheaper fuel for the buses and airports if IFT becomes a significant share holder in NZR?

[Toddy]

BRICKS has never been in IFT and now watching them loose 57 million on AIA don't think he will ever line up to BUY there STOCK..

They wrote the investment down in the previous financial year by 80 odd million, so will book a profit this year. They were not the only ones to lose $$$ on the deal that the Labour Govt stopped.



From Tim Brown

The divestment brings Infratil's sales of non-core assets to $220 million in the first half, in addition to $98 million of equity raising that leaves it with a considerable war-chest.

"Some of that we've used to repay debt, some we're using for organic internal growth," said Brown. "There won't be too many surprises. We've had a very active six months and you don't want that pace all the time."

The possible purchase of Shell's New Zealand assets, investment in an Australian power station and potential buying of new buses all figure in Infratil's future.

"The key is making sure the businesses all continue to perform as well as they can," he said.

[BRICKS]

[QUOTE=Toddy;281143]They wrote the investment down in the previous financial year by 80 odd million, so will book a profit this year. They were not the only ones to lose $$$ on the deal that the Labour Govt stopped.

Thanks for telling me IFT they are bigger DILLS for loosing 80 million instead of 57 million
the story is not getting any better.

AND forget about OZ power stations up for sale in NSW that subject is NO walk up start
doubt a KIWI mob would get a look IN..

[GTM 3442]

The refinery has been a good sound asset for holders (including the fuel industry) for years. Fuel retailing is very low margin.

I think the move is interesting in the sense that they are going from an area where they have some expertise (airports) into an area where they have none (fuel and general retailing). I guess you could say the refinery is an infrastructure asset, but a chain of shops?

How about vertical integration ? The Refinery produces the fuel, the "Shell" outlets sell it. Low margin, high volume ? And you can decide where to take your profit - refining or retail.

There seem to be two trends to fuel selling - unattended self-serve sites, and ever-bigger consumer/convenience retail with fuel as "hook" to get you in the door.

[Jay]

If the rumors are correct and IFT NZ Super make a buyout will "Shell" disappear or will there suddenly be a whole heap of New World or such like stations as in Australia where there are stand alone ones (not next to) a Cole's etc ??
Have they/are they lining someone up, cause I cannot see Pak'N'Save being the only one (they have BP fuel)

[Nevl]

If the rumors are correct and IFT NZ Super make a buyout will "Shell" disappear or will there suddenly be a whole heap of New World or such like stations as in Australia where there are stand alone ones (not next to) a Cole's etc ??
Have they/are they lining someone up, cause I cannot see Pak'N'Save being the only one (they have BP fuel)

The news report today suggested that NZ supermarkets were too expensive so there is room for some competition. Could be a market for another supermarket chain based on the service stations

[COLIN]

What's the likelihood of cheaper fuel for the buses and airports if IFT becomes a significant share holder in NZR?
Its out of their hands. The "Refiners Margin" is set by a formula.

[Toddy]

Todays NZ Herald article says it all......


Tim Brown
Infratil's share price slid 7c, or 4.3 per cent, to $1.53 yesterday after announcing it was quitting its airport stake. "It's a little bit of a surprise to me after everyone saying it would be a good thing to do this - now we've done it the share price goes down."


Rob Mercer
He agreed uncertainty over Shell was bearing on the share price and because the purchase price was difficult to determine this could continue.

"It's certainly created a lot of debate as to what the merits are. The market's looking at Infratil with the glass half empty - I think that's a little unreasonable. They have been forward thinking in having a capital structure with very little bank debt."


And the ODT

"Infratil is only interested in the Shell assets if the price is right and it can demonstrate it will add value for shareholders without needing to raise equity."

Infratil was trading at a 30% discount to Forsyth Barr's assessed net asset value of $2.92 a share. Mr Young acknowledged sentiment towards Infratil was more negative than it had been in previous years and the interest towards its involvement in acquiring Shell was "less than enthusiastic".

[Balance]

Can anyone name one other good investment IFT has made outside of TPW and POT?

This is a company living on past glories with not much else to show for the millions of management fees and capital raising done in the last few years.

I hope they do not buy Shell NZ.

Watch the sp go into freefall if they buy Shell NZ. Means another excuse to raise more capital from shareholders and bigger management fees for the managers and directors.

[whatsup]

Can anyone name one other good investment IFT has made outside of TPW and POT?

This is a company living on past glories with not much else to show for the millions of management fees and capital raising done in the last few years.

I hope they do not buy Shell NZ.

Watch the sp go into freefall if they buy Shell NZ. Means another excuse to raise more capital from shareholders and bigger management fees for the managers and directors.

My thoughts exactally, how on earth will the IFTWC's be in the money some $4.16 in about 2 years time !!!

[Jaa]

Can anyone name one other good investment IFT has made outside of TPW and POT?

Wellington Airport

[Balance]

Wellington Airport

That is a good investment?

[Toddy]

I hope they do not buy Shell NZ.

Watch the sp go into freefall if they buy Shell NZ. Means another excuse to raise more capital from shareholders and bigger management fees for the managers and directors.

Or the opposite may happen. The Shell assets might be the buy of the decade, and with no capital raising from shareholders on the horizon then north the SP will go.

Balance, these guys do work hard and like all of us, the recession has meant a change in thinking.

Hopefully the outcome will be an opportunity.

[Jaa]

That is a good investment?

Absolutely! Its a license to print money, just ask Air NZ.

[Toddy]

IFT are keen to get the Shell deal out into the public as soon as possible. Management are determined that they are doing the right thing for the SP.

So, I'm going to pick a date. Monday 30 Nov.

Any others?

[Toddy]

From todays interim announcement. 'attractively priced'........



Infratil is also working with the New Zealand Superannuation Fund
to acquire Shell's New Zealand energy distribution and refining assets. If
completed, the transaction would be attractively priced and result in control
of an integrated downstream energy business in a stable market with earnings
growth opportunities.

[macduffy]

An interesting comment from IFT yesterday in explaining the rationale for buying the Shell retail assets:

"..... an opportunity to optimise an integrated downstream NZ energy business by stripping away the costs and complexities associated with a multinational organisation and improving retail sales."

Now I'm not saying that Shell indulge in such practices but it is normal for multinationals to organise their affairs, particularly transfer-pricing arrangements, in such a way that maximum tax is paid in the most favourable jurisdiction and vice versa.

Perhaps it's possible that the retail fuel business can be made to be more profitable than it currently appears.

;)

[Nevl]

An interesting comment from IFT yesterday in explaining the rationale for buying the Shell retail assets:

"..... an opportunity to optimise an integrated downstream NZ energy business by stripping away the costs and complexities associated with a multinational organisation and improving retail sales."

Now I'm not saying that Shell indulge in such practices but it is normal for multinationals to organise their affairs, particularly transfer-pricing arrangements, in such a way that maximum tax is paid in the most favourable jurisdiction and vice versa.

Perhaps it's possible that the retail fuel business can be made to be more profitable than it currently appears.

;)

Also in an organisation the size of Shell there is a disconnect from the head office in the UK. I am sure there is a lot of deadwood and bad practice that has become part of the culture in Shell that a good management team like IFT or GPG could easily weedout and improve. After all just revamping the forecourt payment systems can lead to a saving of 2 or3% of costs.

No I think IFT could be on to a winner and the fact that Mobil is for sale too strengthens their hand.

[beacon]

Or maybe Shell and Mobil see a worsening retail operation that they do not wish to be part of. Maybe they didn't like the Gas station strife stories that were aired around six months ago. IFT think they can do better, just like they did with NZ Bus. The refinery is the good bit, but it looks like the big fish know that and are using that as bait....

[POSSUM THE CAT]

NEV The good Management Team of IFT that bought Stagecoach and lost how many millions on AIA are going to do better than the present Shell management. Are you sugesting card payment at the pump again. Most of these have been torn out again. They were unreliable or frustrated the customers so much they went elsewhere. Have you been to a PAK N SAVE service station lately. What a pain in the rear end. And do not think they buying a lot of property. most of it is leased & possibly the leasee is responsable for decontaminating it as well. My opinion is SHELL will be laughing all the way to the bank.

[PLYNCH]

I wonder if IFT will carry on using the Shell name.
If IFT like NZR so much should have bought Rubicon's NZR shares 7-8 years ago for $1.06 ($$10.60).What a bargain.
IFT has lost its way and is turning into the next BIL/GPG.

[Toddy]

IFT has lost its way and is turning into the next BIL/GPG.

Plynch

No way. If you have read the financial statements then you will know that the IFT balance sheet is very healthy and is not weighed down by over exposure in any one sector. (unless you don't like over exposure to Trustpower).

NZ Bus still provides cashflow (maybe look at dumping the Auckland side of the business) and the Aussie portfolio is in a great sector with a good outlook.

The idea was right behind the offshore Airport purchases but the financial crises came along. Its still a good sector to be in for the long term but like all companys around the world it makes sense to do business closer to home.

I think that IFT is alot futher through their restructure than the market is giving them credit for.


GPG is stuck with Coats as was Brierley with Thistle, both of which stuffed their balance sheets.

[Toddy]

The bus despute has finally been resolved and Lloyde is helping out around the office.

Bus drivers finally agree to new pay deal
The deal, which includes an 11.5 per cent pay increase over the next three years, was put to union members today at ratification meetings and they voted in favour.

[sharer]

The bus despute has finally been resolved and Lloyde is helping out around the office.

Bus drivers finally agree to new pay deal
The deal, which includes an 11.5 per cent pay increase over the next three years, was put to union members today at ratification meetings and they voted in favour.

Sounds similar to what was offered in the first place?
Good to know LM is back in the office, even if it may be just a chat & cuppa.

[Toddy]

ENE is in a trading halt pending announcement.

Could this be an on market takeover offer on the way.

[Toddy]

Seems like a good deal in todays market, and cash in the bank (110m kiwi) for IFT. Lets see how it goes.


ASSET: IFT: Infratil supports Greenspark offer for Energy Developments

Media Release Monday, November 30,
2009

Infratil supports Greenspark offer for Energy Developments shares

Greenspark Power Holdings Ltd has today announced an intention to make a full
offer for all the shares in Energy Developments Limited (ENE) at A$2.75 per
share. Greenspark is jointly owned by entities advised by the PEP Group.

Infratil, ENE's largest shareholder, is fully supportive of this offer and
has concurrently entered into a Pre-Bid Agreement with Greenspark in respect
of 31,308,860 of its shares in ENE. The commitment given under the Pre-Bid
Agreement is in respect of 19.99% of the shares in ENE.

[Nevl]

ENE is in a trading halt pending announcement.

Could this be an on market takeover offer on the way.

Offer $2.75 Aussie per share. Anyone remember what IFT paid in the first place. But looks like they are getting close to $100mill Kiwi for their stake. Now they have a very serious war chest.

[Toddy]

ENE announcement says IFT + insto's intend to accept the offer representing 42.4% of shareholding. The finish line is 50.1%.

Therefore, it looking like a done deal already.

[macduffy]

Offer $2.75 Aussie per share. Anyone remember what IFT paid in the first place. But looks like they are getting close to $100mill Kiwi for their stake. Now they have a very serious war chest.

According to my records IFT paid NZD170m for the original stake and have written it down by NZD113.7m since. So it's in the books at NZD56.3m.

$100m will give them a healthy profit for this year's numbers but of course still represents a hefty loss overall.

[whatsup]

According to my records IFT paid NZD170m for the original stake and have written it down by NZD113.7m since. So it's in the books at NZD56.3m.

$100m will give them a healthy profit for this year's numbers but of course still represents a hefty loss overall.

NOT ONE OF THEIR BETTER DEALS< sign of things to come ?

[macduffy]

NOT ONE OF THEIR BETTER DEALS< sign of things to come ?

More a sign of things past. IFT have been keen to quit this one for some time so should be a positive for them if the deal goes through at this price.

:cool:

[Nevl]

According to my records IFT paid NZD170m for the original stake and have written it down by NZD113.7m since. So it's in the books at NZD56.3m.

$100m will give them a healthy profit for this year's numbers but of course still represents a hefty loss overall.

Thanks for that. Looks like the new management are getting rid of all the deadwood deals done in the past and looking for a new start. This is not a bad thing I think. Cash in the bank is good and getting rid of none performing assets is also a good thing. So now it looks as though they have cleaned up the balance sheet. Got a lot of cash in the bank and can go ahead as a slimmed down entity.

Still Whatsup has a point. The question is whether new investments will be better than the old ones? Personally I like the idea of Shell but for no more than 3 to 4 years. But this deal means that they have enough cash to do more than that.

[whatsup]

Thanks for that. Looks like the new management are getting rid of all the deadwood deals done in the past and looking for a new start. This is not a bad thing I think. Cash in the bank is good and getting rid of none performing assets is also a good thing. So now it looks as though they have cleaned up the balance sheet. Got a lot of cash in the bank and can go ahead as a slimmed down entity.

Still Whatsup has a point. The question is whether new investments will be better than the old ones? Personally I like the idea of Shell but for no more than 3 to 4 years. But this deal means that they have enough cash to do more than that.

Trouble is this deal ( although it wouldnt have ) should have been done 12 months ago so as to be able to take advantage of all of the cheap deals out there that 6 months ago were there for the taking , not now as unless the market has another leg down the opportunities that are there are picked over or fully priced, oui well at least its money in the bag but IFT's ballance sheet was getting pretty fully stretched,
I did well out of the options bought some at .03 and sold at .14, best play in IFT for a while.

[macduffy]

Press reports today expect a return to IFT of about AUD138m for its ENE stake if the sale goes through at AUD2.75ps.

That would see IFT pretty well recovering its original investment of NZD170m and a book profit in excess of NZD100m in the current year.

[macduffy]

There are some unusual aspects to the PEP bid for ENE.

IFT may still be some way from cashing in this investment.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Energy-Developments-Pacific-Equity-Partners-carbon-pd20091130-YA9K4?OpenDocument&src=kgb

[Toddy]

There are some unusual aspects to the PEP bid for ENE.

IFT may still be some way from cashing in this investment.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Energy-Developments-Pacific-Equity-Partners-carbon-pd20091130-YA9K4?OpenDocument&src=kgb

The finish line is only 50.1%. And with IFT's holding its difficult not to see them reaching the acceptance level.

[macduffy]

The interim div was due to be paid last Friday, 11 Dec.

Last year's final (for year ended 31 March 2009) was paid on 29 July.

:)

[CJ]

Would appreciate if someone would tell when the last dividends are meant to be paid?
received on 11/12/09

[svez01]

I was wondering if someone with some Technical Analysis expertise would care to post their thoughs on Infratil.

To my (very inexperienced) eyes it appears IFT has broken out of its long term down trend.

http://i985.photobucket.com/albums/ae332/svez01/chart.jpg

Your opinions are appreciated.

[sharer]

I was wondering if someone with some Technical Analysis expertise would care to post their thoughs on Infratil.

To my (very inexperienced) eyes it appears IFT has broken out of its long term down trend.

http://i985.photobucket.com/albums/ae332/svez01/chart.jpg

Your opinions are appreciated.

Svez01: As a newcomer to TA myself, just a supporting note here while we wait for the masters to clarify the situation. Starting off, i would agree with you, if we look only at the last 6 weeks of your chart; your observation might still be right after looking as far as 6 months back. However it could be just over-optimistic taking in the longer term data. There are clearly a sequence of runs up & down, with lower lows happening (up to ~6 months ago) - so a pessimist might claim IFT is still in a sinking trend.
But as a longterm holder of IFT, of course i hope you may be right! ;)

[sharer]

Svez01: I should correct myself - the most recent lows in fact have risen somewhat (supporting your hopeful outlook).

[Toddy]

The sun is rising and all of the dirty laundry has been hung out to dry. Could this Kiwi Company finally be awakening from the long deep depression.

Volumes though the roof and a deal on the table with the price to be revealed 'soon'.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Toddy What deal is this? If you mean the Shell deal? Is it going to be another dead loss like the purchase of Stagecoach? I will back the Shell management any day against the IFT management.

[macduffy]

Shell's decision to sell its NZ retail business is part of a world-wide decision to scale down its downstream business to free up funds for its exploration and other upstream activities. It doesn't say that the NZ retailing arm is a dog.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/news/shell-to-sell-up-to-9000-petrol-stations-as-moves-closer-to-takeover-deal-with-arrow-energy/story-e6frg90o-1225841675631

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Macduffy if it was a good performer they would not sell it. They have sorted out their poorest performing assets or those they anticipate will perform poorly in future for sale. This is the reality of business.

[GTM 3442]

Possum, they are making decisions based on where they see the best returns. They see exploration and upstream as more profitable than retail and downstream.

That doen't mean that retail and downstream is not profitable.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

GTM not profitable enough to keep so why would it be profitable enough for IFT Just like Stagecoach lack lustre returns. If this is such a good buy. Why was Infratil the only one interested.

[macduffy]

Possum, they are making decisions based on where they see the best returns. They see exploration and upstream as more profitable than retail and downstream.

That doen't mean that retail and downstream is not profitable.

Took the words out of my mouth, GTM!

For Shell it's a matter of their strategy and priorities. Guess we'll have to agree to disagree with Possum over this and wait to see how it plays out.

[lissica]

Macduffy if it was a good performer they would not sell it. They have sorted out their poorest performing assets or those they anticipate will perform poorly in future for sale. This is the reality of business.

But that goes with any business being bought and sold. If that was the case, then the buyer always loses out.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Lissica yes Buyer Beware & that includes the buyer of shares. Some agreements include a guarantee of performance others require extra payments if business performs better than expected. What is in the Shell agreement we will have to wait and see but I have little faith in Infratils Management. After some of there dealings Stagecoach & Auckland Airport being two.

[Toddy]

Good value for money.

Shell and Infratil have finally signed on the dotted line for the $696.5 million sale of the oil company’s New Zealand distribution and retail business, including its petrol stations and a share in the Marsden Point Refinery.

[CJ]

Good value for money.How do you know? Do we know what the earnings are for the assets acquired.

THey are also signalling alot of capital spend. Rebranding will need to be done at some point and they have indicated they why to get into high mark up items so new car washes, more food etc.

[GTM 3442]

From the NZ Herald:

"They say say that dividends from the business will now mainly flow to New Zealand shareholders - and the public, via the investment by the Super Fund. It says there will also be more local jobs and staff training through the "on-shoring" of many roles now being performed overseas.

"This is a New Zealand company taking hold and control of an asset that has been controlled offshore for some time," Infratil chief executive Marko Bogoievski said."

Um, sounds like a whacking great increase in costs to me.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

My Thoughts: Dog buys Dog

[Toddy]

My Thoughts: Dog buys Dog

Still more productive than a fat cat lying around doing nothing except whining.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Toddy fat cat making money by staying away from dogs. Burnt once by this management never again.

[Toddy]

Toddy fat cat making money by staying away from dogs. Burnt once by this management never again.

Possum

Fair comment. They owe me a lifetime of savings.

The Shell assets are very much real and do not require the fancy derivatives that IFT management thought they were good at. As soon as they took away the quarterly reporting the market was very much in the dark over the mark to market value of the Aussie energy derivatives.

However, I do think that the management have learnt (like everyone else during the crises) to stick to the basics. And that is what they are essentially doing, buying assets close to home that they can manage hands on when required.

[whatsup]

IFT payed 4 x's earnings, what a gift, plenty of upside here once IFT works their magic !!!

[CJ]

IFT payed 4 x's earnings, what a gift, plenty of upside here once IFT works their magic !!!A PE of 4. that is a good buy even if it is a non growth industry.

However, I coulnd't see any management fees in the stats at the companies office so hopefully they factored this in since they are going to bring all these extra jobs onshore.

Edit: only up three cents so far though so either market knew or they dont think think it is a good deal.

[lissica]

How do you know? Do we know what the earnings are for the assets acquired.


Yes, there doesn't seem to be a lot of info on which to base that on.

Whatsup.....where did you get a PE of 4?

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Toddy PM me an email address and I will give you another slant on this privately if you are interested or if you have Skype I will give you a skype name if you would like a conversation. Still have friends in this trade.

[Nevl]

Toddy PM me an email address and I will give you another slant on this privately if you are interested or if you have Skype I will give you a skype name if you would like a conversation. Still have friends in this trade.

What do you think the chances are that The IFTShell could hook up with http://www.betterplace.com/ ?

After all shell has a huge network and with the trustpower angle they have the electricity covered. The only gaps in the network are the west coast of the south island. Trustpower has a lot of wind power and car batteries are a good way of storing that energy so it solve many of the problems of unreliable electric demand and supply.

Makes sense to me.

[whatsup]

Yes, there doesn't seem to be a lot of info on which to base that on.

Whatsup.....where did you get a PE of 4?

With the interview from the IFT boss on yesterdays lunch time money report on the National programme.

[bull....]

I like there buy of nz refining but i dont think there is much profit in shell service stations.
The margin on fuel is quat and the shell retail side pales in comparison to bp who dominate this part of the business.
Combine this with the huge amount of money they lose in drive off,s and store and staff theft there are in fact very few profitable service stations hence why the majors shell and mobil are baling as they lost to bp thats why bp is staying.

[foodee]

I like there buy of nz refining but i dont think there is much profit in shell service stations.
The margin on fuel is quat and the shell retail side pales in comparison to bp who dominate this part of the business.
Combine this with the huge amount of money they lose in drive off,s and store and staff theft there are in fact very few profitable service stations hence why the majors shell and mobil are baling as they lost to bp thats why bp is staying.

B you are right BUT
3 ex BPs are on the board and
if branding is 'kiwi.........' then patriotic kiwis could
display the similar behaviour to Kiwibank!

cheers

[peat]

This morning Craigs confirm the PE ratio being talked about in this thread

Infratil - Black gold - IFT has released details of the acquisition of Shell's downstream assets
in NZ for cNZ$750m through a 50:50 JV with the NZ Super Fund. Excluding the NZ Refining
stake (cNZ$190m at market) the implied multiple on FY09 (current cost) EBITDA is c4x, this
leaves plenty of value on the table for the JV, in our view. BUY.

[Silverlight]

Announcement

Shell and Burgerfuel join forces

:D:D:D

[GTM 3442]

Why would Shell want BurgerFuel when they already have Burger King ?

[macduffy]

This morning Craigs confirm the PE ratio being talked about in this thread
Infratil - Black gold -

Except that 4x EBITDA is not the same thing as a P/E of 4.

EBITDA - Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation.

Still a good buy IMO but only time will tell.

[lissica]

Why would Shell want BurgerFuel when they already have Burger King ?

Because Burger Fuel tastes better. And if they're going with the NZ thing, also originated in NZ.

[Snow Leopard]

Then why not look at this investor presentation (http://www.infratil.com/media/PDF/shellnz_acquistion_investorpresentation_29mar2010. pdf)

regards
Paper Tiger

[peat]

http://chartpattern.com/ascending_triangle.html

IFT seems to fit the bill as regards the description in the link.

[gonzo56]

Well spotted Peat

[Snow Leopard]

http://chartpattern.com/ascending_triangle.html

IFT seems to fit the bill as regards the description in the link.

Damn, so I should have bought shares a few days ago at $1.70+ whereas I actually spent my loose change last November at $1.51. :(

Infratil are busy buying their own shares back again I notice, probably doing it deliberately to ensure the breakout continues and get all you coat-tailers to buy in :p

best wishes
Paper Tiger

[bull....]

Ift was a initial long term buy between 1.5 - 1.6 when a lower low was confirmed , this has been further validated by the break of 1.68 which is bullish as this had proved resistance since december , notice on a chart the significant gap up above this level on big volume vaidates the breakout.
The longer it holds above this level the stronger the advance will be with short term target in the 1.90s fits in with the triangle measurements

[peat]

yup the volume is good...confirms the breakout.

[mr.needs]

Love it ... big cross on a rising price ... I wonder who sold?

Sorry, bit of a newbie. Can you explain what you mean by this...

[peat]

a big cross is a large parcel of shares being sold from one party (generally an institution) to another - I dont have the info on the trade itself but with 13 million shares being traded today we can assume the big boys are playing.

[Nevl]

hmm nothing about the volcanoes effects on IFTs airports in Europe yet!!

[macduffy]

hmm nothing about the volcanoes effects on IFTs airports in Europe yet!!

A very minor part of IFT's business.

I'd regard any adverse effect on the IFT SP as an opportunity to buy a few more!

[mr.needs]

hmm nothing about the volcanoes effects on IFTs airports in Europe yet!!

I think the effects will be short-lived.

Mind you, I'm no volcanologist and if the Pompeii exhibition at Te Papa I went to last night is anything to go by, we may need to rebuild from the ground up!

I see the are considering reopening flights from Glasgow & Prestwick. No word on Kent which is closer to London.

If the eruption continues, it is said disruptions could remain for up to 6 months. :scared:

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Volcano-Ash-Cloud-Flight-Restrictions-Will-Continue-Until-7pm-NATS-Warns-After-Iceland-Eruption/Article/201004315604129?lpos=UK_News_Top_Stories_Header_0&lid=ARTICLE_15604129_Volcano_Ash_Cloud_Flight_Rest rictions_Will_Continue_Until_7pm%2C_NATS_Warns_Aft er_Iceland_Eruption

[mr.needs]

From Infratil's Facebook page:



Infratil's airports in Glasgow and Kent have minimal operations and expect this to continue for the next couple of days at least. Glasgow Prestwick successfully handled two British Airways long-haul flights on Saturday. Staffing has been reduced and maintenance work brought forward where possible.

[lissica]

From Infratil's Facebook page:

They have a facebook page?

>_>

[mr.needs]

That's just plain weird!

Weird? Or simply just keeping up to date with communication in the 21st century? I think you will find a lot of companies using social networking sites for marketing etc.

Infratil regularly update their page with new information and links to relevant news stories. A quick easy way to keep informed.

If your interested, I recommend you go check it out. You don't even need to sign up for a facebook account!

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Infratil/57993919565?ref=ts

Another update on Infratil's European airports

http://www.guide2.co.nz/money/news/business/infratil-keeps-eye-on-impact-on-uk-airports/11/15713

[Snow Leopard]

I recently joined Facebook not as Paper Tiger, but under an assumed name. Having discovered on this thread that Infratil are there too I have searched for other companies I own and they do appear to be the only one.

It seems to be a tool for linking to Infratil related news stories which I believe to be lacking from the website.
Good on them

regards
Paper Tiger

[CJ]

I recently joined Facebook not as Paper Tiger, but under an assumed name.As a side note, that is not allowed under the terms of the site - you must use your real name.

[lissica]

Weird? Or simply just keeping up to date with communication in the 21st century? I think you will find a lot of companies using social networking sites for marketing etc.



Not weird, but just a bit unusual for an infrastructure company. Still I guess it's no different to being friends with your shampoo. Might as well make friends with your local airport/bus/energy/petrol station company

^_^

[mr.needs]

Not weird, but just a bit unusual for an infrastructure company. Still I guess it's no different to being friends with your shampoo. Might as well make friends with your local airport/bus/energy/petrol station company

^_^

Haha fair enough I guess. Actually if you want you can become friends with your local airport directly:

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Wellington-International-Airport/113620325318953?ref=sgm

Or in Dunedin, you can even become friends with a construction site!! (the new stadium they're building):

http://www.facebook.com/mySnapper?ref=sgm#!/ForsythBarrStadium

[mr.needs]

Does anyone know why there are so many small trades going through today?

[Toddy]

Does anyone know why there are so many small trades going through today?

Dividend reinvestment plan.

Atleast someone is buying!

This share has been a nightmare.

[mr.needs]

Airports in Europe closed again

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10645329

[peat]

Airports in Europe closed again

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10645329

yes not a good year for Infratils European airports
Infratil Airports Europe ``experienced a difficult year'' with a $10 million loss

annual result out this morning
Infratil has posted a tax paid profit of $29 million for the year to March, turning around a $191m loss the previous year.
http://www.nzx.com/home/3709142/Infratil-earnings-rise
An unchanged final dividend of 3.75c a share will be paid on June 25

[CJ]

I received the forms for their Drip the other day. will be interesting to see if they offer at a discount.

[macduffy]

I received the forms for their Drip the other day. will be interesting to see if they offer at a discount.

Announcement say that shares will be issued at the weighted average price of sales on NZX over the period 14 -18 June.

No mention of a discount.

[peat]

Craigs commentary in their daily report


Infratil - A better balanced business - IFT has reported an FY10 EBITDA of NZ$363.3m, in
line with our estimates. It guided for a 10-20% increase in FY11 EBITDA, with growth
coming from Shell, better controls in the Australian asset and benefiting from a potentially
improving economy. We have reduced our target price to NZ$2.04 and keep our Buy rating.
BUY

[mr.needs]

Looks like IFT are using some of that IFTWB cash they just received to buy back some of the newly issued shares.

750,000 @ 1.61 on the 26th http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/IFT/announcements/3744581/Share-Buyback
350,000 @ 1.65 on the 25th http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/IFT/announcements/3738831/Share-Buyback
750,000 @ 1.67 on the 21st http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/IFT/announcements/3730191/Share-Buyback

Probably not a bad idea considering they're buying them back for less than the cash they received ($1.67 = $0.55 + $1.12) when they issued them.

It also means the directors believe the best thing they can do with the company's money is to reinvest back into the company. Surely a good thing.

Major shareholder Utilico increasing their stake

http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/IFT/announcements/3732299/SSH-Notice-Utilico-Limited

A number of directors also increasing their shareholdings

http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/IFT/announcements/3741635/Director-and-Officer-Disclosure-Tim-Brown
http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/IFT/announcements/3731108/Disclosure-of-Directors-and-Officers-Kevin-Baker
http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/IFT/announcements/3730917/Director-Disclosure-Lloyd-Morrison
http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/IFT/announcements/3724888/Director-Disclosure-David-Newman
http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/IFT/announcements/3723144/Ongoing-disclosure-Kevin-Baker

All good signs IMO

[ratkin]

Wifes boycotting BP because of oil leak. Outrage is spreading against this company

[peat]

Do you mean outrage against BP or against IFT ?
Infratil invests mainly in renewable energy according to its website.
I cant see any great link between BP and IFT apart from one of the Directors was previously Managing Director of BP New Zealand so why post here?

[zigzag]

Wifes boycotting BP because of oil leak. Outrage is spreading against this company

Infratil have bought the downstream assets of Shell anyway. Also seems to me that Trans-Ocean and Halliburtons, and a few others have some responsibility here.

[mr.needs]

Infratil have bought the downstream assets of Shell anyway. Also seems to me that Trans-Ocean and Halliburtons, and a few others have some responsibility here.

People still need to buy their petrol somewhere, so if not at BP then it must mean more customers for Shell!

[ratkin]

That was my point , seemed to cause some confusion amongst the easily irritated

[mr.needs]

Interesting interview with Mike Szikszai; the CEO of Snapper.

http://www.interest.co.nz/news/snapper-ceo-miki-szikszai-talks-about-snapper-nz-and-future-payment-systems

[Romer]

Annual Report paints a rosy picture. - - -Claims a 22.5% gain for shareholders. I presume that is supposing you bought on the lowest day of the year and sold on the highest. - - -

[CJ]

Annual Report paints a rosy picture. - - -Claims a 22.5% gain for shareholders. I presume that is supposing you bought on the lowest day of the year and sold on the highest. - - -Aren't they referring to the return since IPO? I am sure they use to quote that all the time.

[Romer]

Aren't they referring to the return since IPO? I am sure they use to quote that all the time.

Nup Rate of return since IPO 17.7% compounded annually.

The last year 22.5%. To me its an example of you can support whatever stance you want to take by picking on the right numbers.

[winner69]

So not going too good this year ... they said $1.72 at March 31 abd now $1.60 ... just as well another 9 months to go to catch up

[macduffy]

Nup Rate of return since IPO 17.7% compounded annually.

The last year 22.5%. To me its an example of you can support whatever stance you want to take by picking on the right numbers.

But to be fair to IFT I think they report this return each year. So not a case of picking "favourable" dates.

[peat]

Infratil lists on the ASX on Monday under the code IFZ

[kiora]

Some activity showing ??????