IFT - Infratil

[huxley]

A behemoth of a renewable energy pipeline behind Tilt... market will reward it when the time comes in 2018 > 2019

Would not consider IFT to be overvalued in the slightest... what makes you say that?

I hold both TLT and IFT.


'Turnbull’s NEG claims first major renewable energy victim'

http://reneweconomy.com.au/turnbulls-neg-claims-first-major-renewable-energy-victim-13280/

Thoughts? :mellow:

[winner69]

'Turnbull’s NEG claims first major renewable energy victim'

http://reneweconomy.com.au/turnbulls-neg-claims-first-major-renewable-energy-victim-13280/

Thoughts? :mellow:

Turnbull will be out of a job pretty soon so all this could be just a temporary blip.

[kiora]

'Turnbull’s NEG claims first major renewable energy victim'

http://reneweconomy.com.au/turnbulls-neg-claims-first-major-renewable-energy-victim-13280/

Thoughts? :mellow:

It is to cost $115m to build one of the wind farms.Return $25m/yr if don't forward sell/hedge their production.Really?no value ?

[kiora]

Unusually high trade at 3,668,437 share parcel today with the price chopping up & down between $3.21 $ 3.215.
I wonder where the SP will go from here,up?

[Jantar]

It is to cost $115m to build one of the wind farms.Return $25m/yr if don't forward sell/hedge their production.Really?no value ?
So far there is no stand-alone grid connected wind farm anywhere in the world that makes a profit without government subsidies. Tilt's Australian wind farms also rely on subsidies, and I do believe that $25M per year is inclusive of these subsidies.

Here in good old NZ, our wind farms are only profitable due to the governments carbon credits and when the company running them has hydro to complement the wind farms.

[huxley]

So far there is no stand-alone grid connected wind farm anywhere in the world that makes a profit without government subsidies. Tilt's Australian wind farms also rely on subsidies, and I do believe that $25M per year is inclusive of these subsidies.

Here in good old NZ, our wind farms are only profitable due to the governments carbon credits and when the company running them has hydro to complement the wind farms.

I guess the counter argument might be that the burning of fossil fuels is effectively subsidised because the company manufacturering the product and the end consumer do not pay the imputed costs associated with global warming etc.. these costs are passed onto the wider public/future generations to deal with..

[Jantar]

I guess the counter argument might be that the burning of fossil fuels is effectively subsidised because the company manufacturering the product and the end consumer do not pay the imputed costs associated with global warming etc.. these costs are passed onto the wider public/future generations to deal with..That would only be an argument if it could be shown that carbon trading, carbon taxes etc. will in anyway alter the earth's temperature. Even the IPCC do not make that claim; they see these taxes as a way of helping 3rd world countries catch up with 1st world countries.

[horus1]

The climate change is real and will lead to fundamental changes in energy supply. The NZ Electricity system is about 55% non carbon emitting , there will be carbon taxes within 2 years which will make solar and batteries cheaper than grid supply for many remote areas. This is starting to happen now.

[kiora]

Zip zap,Zip zap,Zip zap.I'm getting sea sick,accumulation happening !

[GTM 3442]

I guess the counter argument might be that the burning of fossil fuels is effectively subsidised because the company manufacturering the product and the end consumer do not pay the imputed costs associated with global warming etc.. these costs are passed onto the wider public/future generations to deal with..

You could possibly make the public health argument - that the deaths and illnesses caused by burning stuff are a bad thing.

After all, London banned coal fires decades ago. . . something to do with lots of people dying from smog.

[artemis]

So Infratil's NZBus lost contracts for a whole lot of routes in Auckland and Wellington. Starting to look like they may have dodged a bullet in what appears to be a race to the bottom, cost wise.

In West Auckland the successful tenderer for some routes, Pavlovich Coachlines Limited, is trying to offload the routes only a few months in to the contract. Other companies are not interested, as they would be bound by the same contract.

And in Wellington strikes on the cards as staff (unions) don't like the new Tranzit pay rates. While higher per hour than NZ Bus, penal rates are not payable.

Minister of Transport, Mr Twyford, is considering changes to ringfence wages.


http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/345897/future-uncertain-for-west-auckland-bus-routes

[artemis]

A very interesting and readable market update from Infratil today. The update takes a sweeping look at global forecasts and issues, then focuses in on what's happening in the strategic sectors the company invests in. Followed by more detail on specific investments.

A good read, very well put together.

[Well Endowed]

agreed, a nice polished update. Happily tuck the shares in the bottom drawer for another few years.

[RGR367]

Hoping it goes down for another 5 cents for my top up on buy order that was there sitting 2 weeks ago. I'll be happy still if it doesn't get hit today though.

[Grimy]

Hoping it goes down for another 5 cents for my top up on buy order that was there sitting 2 weeks ago. I'll be happy still if it doesn't get hit today though.

You got your wish!
This is one I'm looking at buying (and maybe selling some IFT bonds to keep my weighting not too high). Will be watching closely. Once the lawns are done (priorities you know!).

[JeremyALD]

Looks like selling NZ Bus. Good move imo.

[RGR367]

You got your wish!
This is one I'm looking at buying (and maybe selling some IFT bonds to keep my weighting not too high). Will be watching closely. Once the lawns are done (priorities you know!).

Okay. Glad to be hit still at 303. Nothing has changed so it's still a very good buy :)

[tobo]

Is it down partly due to Trustpower being down and doubtful?

[value_investor]

Is it down partly due to Trustpower being down and doubtful?

Yes 100%, a little bit of instability over there causing a dip given IFT's large position in it. I see it as a fantastic buying opportunity, for one of the only defensive stocks on the market.

[Hectorplains]

Yes 100%, a little bit of instability over there causing a dip given IFT's large position in it. I see it as a fantastic buying opportunity, for one of the only defensive stocks on the market.

There asset mix is less compelling than previously. While selling POT, Metlife and Z has given them a significant warchest, with all three companies they left a considerable amount still on the table for the buyers.

Of the current crop:

CDC looks promising.
NZ Bus is on the block ... and not before time.
Longroad has potential but may come under pressure from Trump's moves against solar and wind energy.
Perth Energy is being talked about as a turn around but has no runs on the board yet.
Retire Australia looks like a longer term proposition and is not with risk, not least being the Aussie property market.
Wellington Airport - needs to improve international flights to generate growth - this really requires approval for the runway extension. Early days but it's not going IFTs way.
Tilt - needs cash. Hasn't met expectations and legislative change hasn't been helpful.
University accommodation - Small, solid but boring.
Snapper - Hasn't recovered from losing Auckland. No significant uptake beyond Wellington. It wins awards but not contracts.

They certainly are well poised to pounce (aided by NZ Super link) if the current situation throws up something (hopefully no Euro airports.) I continue to hold a few.

[artemis]

Infratil on a tear today. TECT the only news AFAIK. Would that have this effect?

[JeremyALD]

Infratil on a tear today. TECT the only news AFAIK. Would that have this effect?

Yes trust power is up 8% and ift is a majority shareholder

[BlackCross]

Yes trust power is up 8% and ift is a majority shareholder

MorningStar.... earlier in the month "... If the TECT plan succeeds, we estimate Trustpower's EBITDA could fall a total of 13% over the long term, with most of the hit beyond fiscal 2023...."

So a nice result for IFT

[Pmdv77]

Does anyone have any thoughts on the share buy back? My simple maths tells me around 9% of shares could be purchased. $3.50 TP on the back of that at the TECT issue going away?

[hardt]

Does anyone have any thoughts on the share buy back? My simple maths tells me around 9% of shares could be purchased. $3.50 TP on the back of that at the TECT issue going away?

They do have around $580m in cash just lying around the house... share bb stated "will not exceed 50million shares"

Quite a lot to buy over the next 3 months, doubt they are going to reach that many sellers... will also cost them around $150m.

They have searched the market and found the best buying opportunity... themselves.

[Hectorplains]

They have searched the market and found the best buying opportunity... themselves.

Uninspiring (not a growth play) and repeats previous buyback plays by IFT - the benefit of which have been negligible for shareholders.

[horus1]

I think they can only buy back if the internal analysis shows the value of the shares on the market are under the value of the internal analysis.i.e. they are underpriced.

[value_investor]

Its hard to find value out there at the moment with the prices on offer and their shares are offering good value with the TECT things going on with it going down.

[bull....]

looks like a down grade for 2019 earnings

[artemis]

looks like a down grade for 2019 earnings

Outlook for probable div growth, and I don't suppose they would have mentioned special divs if there is not a good prospect.

[bull....]

Outlook for probable div growth, and I don't suppose they would have mentioned special divs if there is not a good prospect.

guess it helps people over look the downgrade ... nice warm fuzzy comments.

the fact is they need to invest substantial capital to get returns going forward so i dont see the benefit of paying out divs and then borrowing for the capital expenditure

[ratkin]

The company told investors total shareholder return has been an annual 13.3 percent over the past seven years, but that the share price "has not recognised the potential of the recent investments or option value of multiple extensive pipelines". Still, those valuation discounts are expected to narrow as Infrailt's investments achieve independent scale, and it said it is considering "utilising periodic development gains to supplement shareholder distributions."

Seems very positive, and with the shares currently below NTA they look a fairly safe place to park some cash. Might top up

[kiora]

IFT well positioned?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12032074
Over many yrs investors have come to expect 17+% ann returns.Over last 3 yrs 13% why?
Because rebuilding its portfolio.Better things to come.TLT,Longroad etc

[artemis]

So NZBus has won the BOP bus contract largely by paying drivers more than the incumbent GoBus (owned by 2 iwi charitable trusts so their tax advantage did not help them here).

Particularly interesting is that there are to be 5 EVs from the outset, and sounds like more coming. That sounds like their EV programme progresses. Maybe they plan to trial it away from Wellington, where the topography is more challenging. Anyway they have spare trolley buses to convert!

Not sure how this contract win fits with their plan to divest NZBus.

[bull....]

i went to a presentation last yr where they say nz bus will be sold , which i consider sensible as it has never provided an acceptable ift return on capital

[artemis]

IIRC they were waiting for the conclusion of the Wellington PTOM round of contracted routes. At that point they knew they had lost routes to Tranzit and Uzabus, but also knew they would retain the other Wellington routes. Which they did. Adding BOP is an interesting move, and can only think it is designed to better position themselves for sale and make headway on the electric buses.

I expect they will retain all or most of the GoBus drivers, who will get a pay rise. Other GoBus drivers will be putting up their hands.

[Pavan Sharma]

Still like the long term view of their renewable and data business, Wellington Airport is still a grey area based on getting consent, would comfortable take a bet on them based on where they are trading

[bull....]

IFT well positioned?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12032074
Over many yrs investors have come to expect 17+% ann returns.Over last 3 yrs 13% why?
Because rebuilding its portfolio.Better things to come.TLT,Longroad etc

agree , they need to build scale in the new platforms to get the really big returns. I prefer tlt and cdc ( data centres ) over longroad as the best areas to get bang for buck

[kiora]

i went to a presentation last yr where they say nz bus will be sold , which i consider sensible as it has never provided an acceptable ift return on capital

Agh ha,but maybe they are thinking long term as well,That their electric buses give them a competitive advantage.And they have the rights to the technology n NZ:)

[kiora]

agree , they need to build scale in the new platforms to get the really big returns. I prefer tlt and cdc ( data centres ) over longroad as the best areas to get bang for buck

Agree.Hats off to them/I suggest one of the best companies planning long term investment strategies.And they execute strategies well.One of the best brains trust of any NZ Co.Look at how smoothly the transition after Lloyds sad passing.One of few set & forget shares.Just need to compare FBU,yuk.Owned FBU in 80's,never again.
https://www.interest.co.nz/news/93290/reserve-bank-governor-adrien-orr-echos-success-failure-sentiment-his-british-counterpart

[ratkin]

Agree.Hats off to them/I suggest one of the best companies planning long term investment strategies.And they execute strategies well.One of the best brains trust of any NZ Co.Look at how smoothly the transition after Lloyds sad passing.One of few set & forget shares.Just need to compare FBU,yuk.Owned FBU in 80's,never again.
https://www.interest.co.nz/news/93290/reserve-bank-governor-adrien-orr-echos-success-failure-sentiment-his-british-counterpart

Can honestly say that in all he years of owning Infratil they have never once given cause for a single second of anxiety. Can sleep soundly at night with these in the portfolio, and over the years they have quietly provided very decent returns.

[macduffy]

Can honestly say that in all he years of owning Infratil they have never once given cause for a single second of anxiety. Can sleep soundly at night with these in the portfolio, and over the years they have quietly provided very decent returns.

Indeed they have (provided very decent returns) despite hiccups occasionally, eg European airports, NZ Bus - but I don't think we should expect a return to 17%+pa returns too often. The law of law numbers; the scarcity of new opportunities make that "a big challenge" - to use the current jargon.

I hold.

[bull....]

dont know if anyone picked up on amazons results this morning , stunning is the word but did you notice there AWS results ( cloud) absolutley stunning ) just goes to show the growth potential.

anyway thats why i was saying CDC part of infratil has huge upside

https://infratil.com/for-investors/company-presentations/

Im thinking this division in Infratil could be a leading driver of revenue and profits in the future so i reckon they need to accelerate there growth on top of whats already planned in this division to capture the strong growth in the sector to come. Next DC in aus has just done a capital raise for further growth as further proof of the sector potential.

[kiora]

dont know if anyone picked up on amazons results this morning , stunning is the word but did you notice there AWS results ( cloud) absolutley stunning ) just goes to show the growth potential.

anyway thats why i was saying CDC part of infratil has huge upside

https://infratil.com/for-investors/company-presentations/

Im thinking this division in Infratil could be a leading driver of revenue and profits in the future so i reckon they need to accelerate there growth on top of whats already planned in this division to capture the strong growth in the sector to come. Next DC in aus has just done a capital raise for further growth as further proof of the sector potential.

Absolutely agree.One only needs to see the number of photos/videos taken worldwide when travelling to decide this.Those records of moments need to be stored somewhere.(or shredded!).And the industry that has a synergy with the data storage is..... renewable energy (Longroad Energy,Tilt,Trustpower) RE tied into Electric buses as well.Long term strategies are in place,patience will pay.

[bull....]

Agh ha,but maybe they are thinking long term as well,That their electric buses give them a competitive advantage.And they have the rights to the technology n NZ:)

still dont like nz bus , even if they went electric still cant see them getting big returns + they would have to spend more capital on buses again and then could lose the contract. not much of a competitive moat in the buses.
sell them to someone else an reinvest in tlt etc for better returns

[bull....]

forgot to mention in there presentation material the company stated a very important point

Infratil anticipates delivering a FY18 result that is at the top end of its guidance range. Guidance for 2018 excludes potential upside from associates’ investment valuations.

as an example


cdc may need a material revaluation increase to reflect the increased multiples attached to this type of business

[artemis]

still dont like nz bus , even if they went electric still cant see them getting big returns + they would have to spend more capital on buses again and then could lose the contract. not much of a competitive moat in the buses.
sell them to someone else an reinvest in tlt etc for better returns

They have said publicly they will be selling NZBus after concluding the contract for the remaining Wellington bus routes. They knew they were getting those routes due to existing contract. It is possible they will retain the conversion to electric buses, as that fits with their overall strategy.

[bull....]

They have said publicly they will be selling NZBus after concluding the contract for the remaining Wellington bus routes. They knew they were getting those routes due to existing contract. It is possible they will retain the conversion to electric buses, as that fits with their overall strategy.

whats the point in electric buses?

costs a more to buy them than current buses
tender periods are to short for contracts , might not get your investment back within the concession period of contract
issues over battery performance

[steveb]

Hey bull have you seen who is trying to run the country at the mo.

There could be subsidies, carbon credits,a new runway or two, even brownie points to be had!

[bull....]

Hey bull have you seen who is trying to run the country at the mo.

There could be subsidies, carbon credits,a new runway or two, even brownie points to be had!

dont make me laugh , they cant even afford the things they promised in the election ( doctor visits canned today) so i doubt very much they are going to subsidise this

[artemis]

whats the point in electric buses?

costs a more to buy them than current buses
tender periods are to short for contracts , might not get your investment back within the concession period of contract
issues over battery performance

They have a lot of unused buses, including decommissioned trolley buses, so cost will be related to the conversion not ab initio purchase.

Can't recall the details but the contracts for the Wellington routes NZBus still holds were not out for public tender, so some sort of right of renewal.

[artemis]

dont make me laugh , they cant even afford the things they promised in the election ( doctor visits canned today) so i doubt very much they are going to subsidise this

Mr Shaw did float the idea of a levy on imported petrol and diesel vehicles, this to subside EVs.Sounds like lead balloon country.

[Ggcc]

Mr Shaw did float the idea of a levy on imported petrol and diesel vehicles, this to subside EVs.Sounds like lead balloon country.
Just went through Wellington airport and spoke to shuttle driver. He mentioned they had big plans at airport for a total revamp of parking area. I noticed that their long term parking was almost too small (lost revenue there). I hope if they look into it and hope they may change this. The rest of the parking area was reasonably empty......

[bull....]

Just went through Wellington airport and spoke to shuttle driver. He mentioned they had big plans at airport for a total revamp of parking area. I noticed that their long term parking was almost too small (lost revenue there). I hope if they look into it and hope they may change this. The rest of the parking area was reasonably empty......

plenty of scope for improved revenues here , new hotel on airport land etc

[bull....]

The Energy and Resources Minister Megan Woods admits she can’t be sure there will be enough affordable clean energy available to fill the gap left when New Zealand’s natural gas reserves run out as soon as within the next 10 years

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/93566/energy-and-resources-minister-megan-woods-talks-nzs-comparative-advantage-producing

opportunity for infratil to fill the gap with wind as suggested by woods

[BlackPeter]

The Energy and Resources Minister Megan Woods admits she can’t be sure there will be enough affordable clean energy available to fill the gap left when New Zealand’s natural gas reserves run out as soon as within the next 10 years

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/93566/energy-and-resources-minister-megan-woods-talks-nzs-comparative-advantage-producing

opportunity for infratil to fill the gap with wind as suggested by woods

Lets hope for shareholders they don't; Gas is cheap and easy to control - you can switch on and off a gas turbine exactly when you need it.

Wind is not controllable at all. Sometimes it blows, sometimes it doesn't - and its availability is in no way correlated to its need. As well - given it is not controllable does the country need to be able to supply 100% of the peak electricity demand without wind - i.e. always building and maintaining more generation capacity than what it otherwise would need ...

If you want to know what the return on investment for a wind farm in New Zealand is - look no further than NWF and ask the shareholders who put in a buck a share more than 10 years ago how happy they are with the returns on this investment. Just in case you are not familiar with this company (New Zealand Wind farms): their dollar turned into 12 cents, they received the first decade no dividend at all - and only recently 0.7 cents. Pathetic investment (for the shareholders of the first hour ... (which IFT would be as well if they build wind farms in NZ).

But maybe IFT wants to make a takeover offer for NWF? Lots of expensive infrastructure very cheap to buy ...

Discl: hold at current neither IFT nor NWF - but with latter still bruised from the experience ...

[bull....]

Lets hope for shareholders they don't; Gas is cheap and easy to control - you can switch on and off a gas turbine exactly when you need it.

Wind is not controllable at all. Sometimes it blows, sometimes it doesn't - and its availability is in no way correlated to its need. As well - given it is not controllable does the country need to be able to supply 100% of the peak electricity demand without wind - i.e. always building and maintaining more generation capacity than what it otherwise would need ...

If you want to know what the return on investment for a wind farm in New Zealand is - look no further than NWF and ask the shareholders who put in a buck a share more than 10 years ago how happy they are with the returns on this investment. Just in case you are not familiar with this company (New Zealand Wind farms): their dollar turned into 12 cents, they received the first decade no dividend at all - and only recently 0.7 cents. Pathetic investment (for the shareholders of the first hour ... (which IFT would be as well if they build wind farms in NZ).

But maybe IFT wants to make a takeover offer for NWF? Lots of expensive infrastructure very cheap to buy ...

Discl: hold at current neither IFT nor NWF - but with latter still bruised from the experience ...

check out tilt renewables part of infratil plenty of there portfolio is wind and they are expanding from cashflows so i think a comparison with nwf ( a speculative company) is in no way a comparison either in company or management.

[huxley]

Pretty sure TLT will sit on its nz wind projects and wait for a counter party to offer it a minimum contracted revenue (could be govt, like what is currently being considered in Australia).. it’s a bit disingenuous to compare the IFT wind assets to nz wind farms

[BlackPeter]

check out tilt renewables part of infratil plenty of there portfolio is wind and they are expanding from cashflows so i think a comparison with nwf ( a speculative company) is in no way a comparison either in company or management.

Aware of TILT and clearly they are a different play than NWF. However - would you say that Tilts earnings and / or share price development are convincing? The market appears to disagree:

9662

Beautiful downtrend so far, and not without reason. Are you prepared to pick the bottom?

[Hectorplains]

But maybe IFT wants to make a takeover offer for NWF? Lots of expensive infrastructure very cheap to buy ...

Discl: hold at current neither IFT nor NWF - but with latter still bruised from the experience ...

Haha, I hope not! They surely had a good chance when Vector's shares went on the block. Vector were happy then to flick them at a considerable discount ...

By the by, Tilt is a terrible name for a company...

[hardt]

Aware of TILT and clearly they are a different play than NWF. However - would you say that Tilts earnings and / or share price development are convincing? The market appears to disagree:

9662

Beautiful downtrend so far, and not without reason. Are you prepared to pick the bottom?

Current operating assets are less than 20% of their pipeline, with their next project *dundonnell* increasing total production capacity by 60%.

Might be a long play and it doesn't pay a solid dividend so it's not for everyone just yet.

[Brain]

Haha, I hope not! They surely had a good chance when Vector's shares went on the block. Vector were happy then to flick them at a considerable discount ...

By the by, Tilt is a terrible name for a company...

Comes from Tilting at windmills which is quite smart in my opinion

[Hectorplains]

Comes from Tilting at windmills which is quite smart in my opinion


I'm not sure how, attacking imaginary enemies, is a useful reference point. Least of all in any positive sense?

[huxley]

I'm not sure how, attacking imaginary enemies, is a useful reference point. Least of all in any positive sense?

Just then they came in sight of thirty or forty windmills that rise from that plain. And no sooner did Don Quixote see them that he said to his squire, "Fortune is guiding our affairs better than we ourselves could have wished. Do you see over yonder, friend Sancho, thirty or forty hulking giants? I intend to do battle with them and slay them. With their spoils we shall begin to be rich for this is a righteous war and the removal of so foul a brood from off the face of the earth is a service God will bless."

https://www.standard.net.au/story/5365295/moyne-shire-seeking-information-from-wind-farm-companies-on-transmission-lines/

Perhaps they were just anticipating the nimby revolution against progress?

[Brain]

I'm not sure how, attacking imaginary enemies, is a useful reference point. Least of all in any positive sense?

It is just a humorous name for a company. Nothing more nothing less. Nothing wrong with having a good laugh.

[bull....]

Aware of TILT and clearly they are a different play than NWF. However - would you say that Tilts earnings and / or share price development are convincing? The market appears to disagree:

9662

Beautiful downtrend so far, and not without reason. Are you prepared to pick the bottom?

fundamental factors affecting the share .. potential big cash issue for donnell anyway if you dont like wind and tilt go ift for diversification?

[bull....]

lots of early volume this morning, looks like someone is accumulating and someone just as eager to offer last week or 2 , wonder who will win

[bull....]

mercury buying a stake in tilt renewables very bullish i reckon for infratil , deeper pocked shareholder with skills in the energy market even stating they are looking to invest more funds into tilts projects.

Heres hoping infratil scale tilt up quickly to capture the opportunity

[kiora]

mercury buying a stake in tilt renewables very bullish i reckon for infratil , deeper pocked shareholder with skills in the energy market even stating they are looking to invest more funds into tilts projects.

Heres hoping infratil scale tilt up quickly to capture the opportunity

Tlt may take a while but laying a solid foundation for the future.All the ducks lining up.

[bull....]

Tlt may take a while but laying a solid foundation for the future.All the ducks lining up.

mercury willing s/h for growth is a positive , ift wont have to stump up as much cash now for dondunnell anyway results tomorrow

[huxley]

mercury willing s/h for growth is a positive , ift wont have to stump up as much cash now for dondunnell anyway results tomorrow

The announcement yesterday didn’t exactly sound like they were super pleased with the sale, especially since they had made their own, rejected, offer.

[peat]

yeh tend to agree with Huxley. IFT have lots of cash looking for a home ...

[kiora]

Yep seems to be that IFT want to give as little as possible away of all the groundwork they have done

[bull....]

thats the problem with infratil , they are laying the groundwork but are spreading themselves to wide, they dont have enough money to do all there projects in all there divisions. the business has not really grown for over 5 yrs they need to concentrate there portfolio and grow it quicker than just spending a bit here and there as capital allows, thats why mercury should be welcomed as together they can grow tilt quicker

[bull....]

infratil would actually create more shareholder value by building up a satelite business into part of there core 1 or 2 at a time instead of 5 at a time would reduce costs, allow more capital to be allocated and narrow management focus.

[huxley]

thats the problem with infratil , they are laying the groundwork but are spreading themselves to wide, they dont have enough money to do all there projects in all there divisions. the business has not really grown for over 5 yrs they need to concentrate there portfolio and grow it quicker than just spending a bit here and there as capital allows, thats why mercury should be welcomed as together they can grow tilt quicker

🤨? Don’t they have hundreds of millions in cash and the same again in bank facilities? I think they were attempting to deploy some of that into TLT but didn’t offer as much as MCY. They’ve mentioned in the last few updates that they’d prefer to invest further into their current platforms and the gearing is quite low.

[bull....]

廊? Don’t they have hundreds of millions in cash and the same again in bank facilities? I think they were attempting to deploy some of that into TLT but didn’t offer as much as MCY. They’ve mentioned in the last few updates that they’d prefer to invest further into their current platforms and the gearing is quite low.

they said in there presentation they dont have enough capital to support all there investment options , thats why i think they need to narrow the portfolio think they might have alluded to that? and they also say tilt and data offer the best options for capital. so why keep the others if they are not as attractive?

Also they say market not valuing the new platforms in there share price - probably because they dont have any scale tilt an example looking at there results ....

[huxley]

they said in there presentation they dont have enough capital to support all there investment options , thats why i think they need to narrow the portfolio think they might have alluded to that? and they also say tilt and data offer the best options for capital. so why keep the others if they are not as attractive?

Also they say market not valuing the new platforms in there share price - probably because they dont have any scale tilt an example looking at there results ....



Yeah, I don't read that in quite the same way, it's more the need to give priority to the best options (and managing your book of proprietary options over time so you can capitalize on market events etc). If anything they seem concerned to avoid over bidding for assets, including their own it seems, which are maybe priced more and more by short term, maybe "bond proxy" factors?

Anyway, I don't think it's really a lack of capital stopping further immediate investment in something like TLT, it's more timing the development to achieve the returns you're after. For example, they could take Dundonnell fully merchant tomorrow, but are basically waiting to get a PPA in place first.

Your right though, some elements in the portfolio don't seem to show much in the way of growth and don't really look like a good fit (other than maybe diversification benefits?), but the for sale sign has already been put up for the likes of NZ Bus, so clearly they will transact if they decide the returns are not going to be realized.

[kiora]

[QUOTE=bull....;714711]they said in there presentation they dont have enough capital to support all there investment options , thats why i think they need to narrow the portfolio think they might have alluded to that? and they also say tilt and data offer the best options for capital. so why keep the others if they are not as attractive?

Also they say market not valuing the new platforms in there share price - probably because they dont have any scale tilt an example looking at there results ....[/QUOTE Around $660 m available to invest?

[huxley]

[QUOTE=bull....;714711]they said in there presentation they dont have enough capital to support all there investment options , thats why i think they need to narrow the portfolio think they might have alluded to that? and they also say tilt and data offer the best options for capital. so why keep the others if they are not as attractive?

Also they say market not valuing the new platforms in there share price - probably because they dont have any scale tilt an example looking at there results ....[/QUOTE Around $660 m available to invest?



But, they say they have $1b in potential investments, soo.. yeah.. Not a bad place to be though, eh?

:cool:

[bull....]

[QUOTE=kiora;714737]



But, they say they have $1b in potential investments, soo.. yeah.. Not a bad place to be though, eh?

:cool:

the stocks got potential dont disagree,

[couta1]

Solid result with increased fully imputed divvy.

[bull....]

cant complain about a div increase , be hoping to hear about portfolio narrowing and capital allocation more in there briefing.

[ratkin]

Market seems happy enough with it

[kiora]

[QUOTE=bull....;714711]they said in there presentation they dont have enough capital to support all there investment options , thats why i think they need to narrow the portfolio think they might have alluded to that? and they also say tilt and data offer the best options for capital. so why keep the others if they are not as attractive?

Also they say market not valuing the new platforms in there share price - probably because they dont have any scale tilt an example looking at there results ....[/QUOTE Around $660 m available to invest?

Oops,my bobo
Invested $326m this yr,only $269 left to invest from undrawn bank facilities.Should be enough though.Onwards & upwards.

[peat]

an encouraging report
but my immediate points would be

eps down despite all the increases in underlying this and normalised that
forecast is up but only after normalising
forecast relies on good returns from Tilt (which just posted a loss), and Perth Gen (same)

I get a bit wary of the accounting but that is their forte and they do come up with rabbits out of the hat.

not a holder at present but always keeping an eye on them.

[bull....]

an encouraging report
but my immediate points would be

eps down despite all the increases in underlying this and normalised that
forecast is up but only after normalising
forecast relies on good returns from Tilt (which just posted a loss), and Perth Gen (same)

I get a bit wary of the accounting but that is their forte and they do come up with rabbits out of the hat.

not a holder at present but always keeping an eye on them.

they will need to prove there platforms are working to close the value gap , think they realise this

[bull....]

the ceo seemed a bit caught of guard why mercury wanted to buy into tilt, probably a little peeved that some big knowgeable investor paid for a 20% stake well above market price and they missed out.

anyway never understood myself why infratil was wanting to buy the stake when they approved the split from trustpower doesnt make much sense why split it from your majority owned investment and then try to buy it back? dont get it seems like a real waste of money. I do see why mercury wanted it australia moving rapidly away from fossil generation to renewables has opened the market to fast movers to make some serious money from being first of the rank to build a scalable renewables business , tilt offers this by having the pipeline of projects. im just hoping infratil can speed it up before every joe wants in and the opportunity evaporates. 2020 i think is when subsidies for wind and solar finish.

[huxley]

“anyway never understood myself why infratil was wanting to buy the stake when they approved the split from trustpower doesnt make much sense why split it from your majority owned investment and then try to buy it back? ”

IFT held about 51% of old Trustpower and now hold about 51% of new Trustpower & of Tilt, in other words they still had the same stake before and after.. the trust likewise held about 26% of both Trustpower & Tilt, but they are more of an income focused investor so they didn’t really have the capacity or willingness to comit to the captital requirements needed to progress TLTs pipeline. It’s a win for the trust as they can put that capital to work in a diversified income focused investment and de-risks them from having such a large stake in the energy sector. They also had at least two willing buyers for their TLT stake, so got a higher sale price.

[bull....]

“anyway never understood myself why infratil was wanting to buy the stake when they approved the split from trustpower doesnt make much sense why split it from your majority owned investment and then try to buy it back? ”

IFT held about 51% of old Trustpower and now hold about 51% of new Trustpower & of Tilt, in other words they still had the same stake before and after.. the trust likewise held about 26% of both Trustpower & Tilt, but they are more of an income focused investor so they didn’t really have the capacity or willingness to comit to the captital requirements needed to progress TLTs pipeline. It’s a win for the trust as they can put that capital to work in a diversified income focused investment and de-risks them from having such a large stake in the energy sector. They also had at least two willing buyers for their TLT stake, so got a higher sale price.

okay i get it , so infratil wanted to buy there stake because they see the big opportunity in tilt , but then mercury saw the big opportunity too but was willing too pay way more than anyone else.

does this suggest one day mercury sees tilt as a company worth billions?

[huxley]

okay i get it , so infratil wanted to buy there stake because they see the big opportunity in tilt , but then mercury saw the big opportunity too but was willing too pay way more than anyone else.

does this suggest one day mercury sees tilt as a company worth billions?

I’d need to look it up, so don’t quote me on it! But I think they mentioned in one of the February updates, if TLT were to build out all of their pipeline it would require something like $6b

[bull....]

they say dundonnell will double the size of tilt , but why not double it again they have consents for mahinerangi and kawera downs combined 400 mw , i think they are to conservative in there approach now that mercury is onboard and stated they are willing to stump up the cash infratil should expediate the development pipeline triple tilt size very quickly is easliy obtainanble

[huxley]

Risk.. for example, what happens if you committed to building those South Island assets and the aluminium smelter closed? The spot price would fall and you’d be left holding some stranded assets.. 😦

[huxley]

By the way, maybe I should change my name to “bear” haha

[bull....]

Risk.. for example, what happens if you committed to building those South Island assets and the aluminium smelter closed? The spot price would fall and you’d be left holding some stranded assets.. 

you dont need 100% committed contracts for the mwh to make them viable proposition to build , sometimes you need to take a leap of faith that the remaining mwh to be sold will be contracted in the future. as long as the contracted mwh supports the build and future costs then the additional sales will flow to the bottom line in time. i think its more about building the scale quickly and if they are sound propostions the additional sales will come.

infratil are saying there platforms are growth assets , there gearing is falling so why not get a move on? retire aus , data centres , tilt they are all sectors where the competition is not going to wait

[huxley]

you dont need 100% committed contracts for the mwh to make them viable proposition to build , sometimes you need to take a leap of faith that the remaining mwh to be sold will be contracted in the future. as long as the contracted mwh supports the build and future costs then the additional sales will flow to the bottom line in time. i think its more about building the scale quickly and if they are sound propostions the additional sales will come.

infratil are saying there platforms are growth assets , there gearing is falling so why not get a move on? retire aus , data centres , tilt they are all sectors where the competition is not going to wait

Here’s a snapshot of that competition: http://www.windenergy.org.nz/consented-wind-farms

[huxley]

“the ceo seemed a bit caught of guard why mercury wanted to buy into tilt, probably a little peeved that some big knowgeable investor paid for a 20% stake well above market price and they missed out.”

What really seemed to stiffen Marko and Phillippa was when an analyst asked about the M Co fees for overseas investments! They seems a bit hedge fund 2&20ish!

[bull....]

“the ceo seemed a bit caught of guard why mercury wanted to buy into tilt, probably a little peeved that some big knowgeable investor paid for a 20% stake well above market price and they missed out.”

What really seemed to stiffen Marko and Phillippa was when an analyst asked about the M Co fees for overseas investments! They seems a bit hedge fund 2&20ish!

lol yes so true are these people not used to being asked the hard questions? guess not? years of good performance and then the last 5 years of under performance may not be used to it ? anyway many investors asking them to step up there game i reckon. went to a investor meeting last year many people were asking why has the share price not gone up? look how similar stocks in aus have gone up big time? they have the opportunity now with there GROWTH platforms .... So i say show me the money ... meaning grow the share price , deliver

[BlackPeter]

Here’s a snapshot of that competition: http://www.windenergy.org.nz/consented-wind-farms

Great overview, Thanks.

Interesting to note - many of the resource applications are more than a decade old and no construction yet. One is from April 2004!
Shows how profitable wind energy really is ;) - better places to park the money;

[huxley]

Great overview, Thanks.

Interesting to note - many of the resource applications are more than a decade old and no construction yet. One is from April 2004!
Shows how profitable wind energy really is ;) - better places to park the money;

Haha yeah..

The Stock Market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient…. Warren Buffett

[huxley]

I’d need to look it up, so don’t quote me on it! But I think they mentioned in one of the February updates, if TLT were to build out all of their pipeline it would require something like $6b


"The cost of building Tilt Renewables’ entireportfolio of projects would be in excess of
$3 billion, that isn’t expected at least in the short
term, but there is every prospect that at least a
third will be committed over the next two years.
This will require Tilt Renewables to raise equity
and debt, either on its balance sheet or by selling
down projects. There is good investor demand to
buy renewable generation which has long-term
power sales agreements."

[Jantar]

they say dundonnell will double the size of tilt , but why not double it again they have consents for mahinerangi and kawera downs combined 400 mw , i think they are to conservative in there approach now that mercury is onboard and stated they are willing to stump up the cash infratil should expediate the development pipeline triple tilt size very quickly is easliy obtainanble The lower South Island transmission circuits already constrain with existing generation. Any more will just result in hydro spilling water unless there is a massive increase in line capacity.

[BlackPeter]

The lower South Island transmission circuits already constrain with existing generation. Any more will just result in hydro spilling water unless there is a massive increase in line capacity.

... and even with more line capacity - any wind generation in the SI will put more strain on transmission lines, given that it is unreliable and not correlated with demand. Big South island wind farms will become the biggest flop since the development of the 2-blade wind turbine ...

[value_investor]

Its a solid result but unspectacular given the level of funds they have and the companies they own. I think that it holds them in good stead though if they can reinvest all of that back into the companies they own. The capital constraints right now are very low in terms of raising funds and they've taken full advantage of that, now is the interesting part in terms of how capital is allocated. I could see them bringing in a DRP if they want to leverage their cash better.

I continue to hold. I think that the future is solid for the companies they own and the track record of capital allocation is very good.

[bull....]

... and even with more line capacity - any wind generation in the SI will put more strain on transmission lines, given that it is unreliable and not correlated with demand. Big South island wind farms will become the biggest flop since the development of the 2-blade wind turbine ...

i should have stated there biggest opportunity is in australia not nz ( thx to jantar for pointing out why ) anyway i think your being a little short sighted in your view of wind/solar etc as being the biggest flop of the century.

check out nextera energy

http://www.nexteraenergy.com/company/work.html

they seem to be doing very well from wind and solar and batteries , in fact wind generation it could be argued is now the cheapest form of generation today even cheaper than hydro. Ever wonder why utilities are diversifing into wind and solar? because the returns are now very attractive against capital costs ( turbine /solar panel costs continue to fall ). sort of get why mercury brought into tilt now then dont you its because it provides diversification and growth to what could be in the future the uneconomic proposition of hydro compared to wind and solar.

infratil alluded into there review of PPA's in there annual result presentation its because a new model is emerging where utility will recover the cost of the build by charging direct the customer the costs of the build and they also own the asset. the model will generate way better returns than the current PPA model.

in summary returns are only going to get better and better from wind / solar and batteries ... so get a move on infratil

[Hectorplains]

I could see them bringing in a DRP if they want to leverage their cash better.


They already have a DRP. It hasn't been applied to recent dividends.

[bull....]

the transpower report was encouraging suggesting a lot more wind power will be needed in years to come.

[horus1]

I have never read such a terrible report. The cost of solar on houses is declining in cost at 10 % per year and batteries at 20%. Historically loads have been reducing at 1-2% per year. That report misleading . Remember Transpower built a 400KV line to AK which is a white elephant and should be written off.

[Jantar]

I have never read such a terrible report. The cost of solar on houses is declining in cost at 10 % per year and batteries at 20%. Historically loads have been reducing at 1-2% per year. That report misleading . Remember Transpower built a 400KV line to AK which is a white elephant and should be written off. That reduction in load occurred from 2012 to 2014. Since then loads, particularly in the South Island, have been increasing at the 2 - 4% rate they were previously. This increase is driven mainly by the massive rise in irrigation, but is also due to a lot of the efficiency gains having reached saturation. E.g. Those who can afford to put in heat pumps have already done so, those who are renting and can't afford them never will.

[artemis]

..... Those who can afford to put in heat pumps have already done so, those who are renting and can't afford them never will.

That may change soon, and bigly.

The Healthy Homes Guarantee Act will require minimum heating standards for rentals (yep just rentals) of which there are some 600,000 in New Zealand. MBIE has put out a discussion paper (actually a Regulatory Impact Statement) which refers to 18 degrees minimum temperature (seems to be over the whole property) and specifically says that research shows portable heaters will not cut it. Subtext - one or more heat pumps per rental or some other form of high output fixed heating.

There will be public consultation shortly, but looks like a few minds are already made up.

I wonder if drain on the network will be considered, not to mention drain on sparkies for new circuits. Heat pump suppliers will be begging for migrant installers while laughing all the way to the bank.

[horus1]

Jantar, you have written your comments from an industry perspective .Customers are getting choice on what to do and as a customer with 6KWh of solar I am reducing consumption fast . By the way it is economic and I am putting in another 10 Kwh, 3 phase inverter, and 6Kwh of batteries. It will have a 5 year payback without buying and selling. Domestic are 50% of load ,and solar is going up fast. Look overseas to see what is happening and it is not what TP says. A cable to AU , completely crazy , the TP senior management should be removed.

[Hectorplains]

Share price touching levels unseen since this time of the year in 2016. I'd love to see an announcement that they've finally flicked NZ Bus(t) and an acquisition or a new venture - perhaps a PPP? That'd be the impetus for the next leg up.

[Brain]

Electric cars will ensure that electricity demand will keep increasing for the foreseeable future.

[huxley]

Share price touching levels unseen since this time of the year in 2016. I'd love to see an announcement that they've finally flicked NZ Bus(t) and an acquisition or a new venture - perhaps a PPP? That'd be the impetus for the next leg up.

Could see some Longroad development profits coming through soon (ish)

[Joshuatree]

With oil going up and councils/Govt wanting to place taxes/fees on petrol im reading a renewed effort to get people on to the buses to help reduce the congestion in many cities and save folks money, its especially bad here in tauranga for ex. So it may be the start of good cycle for buses. Crazy when you think about but most cars are unused 94% of the time .

[dreamcatcher]

Electric cars will ensure that electricity demand will keep increasing for the foreseeable future.

I have a Toyota Hybrid travels 900 - 1000km on a single $70 tank of petrol and charges its own battery when braking. I fail to see why electric cars are unable to charge themselves avoiding costly charges.

[Hectorplains]

I have a Toyota Hybrid travels 900 - 1000km on a single $70 tank of petrol and charges its own battery when braking. I fail to see why electric cars are unable to charge themselves avoiding costly charges.


Haha, if only they'd thought of that...

[bull....]

citi and forsyths lined up for equity raising for tilt

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/citi-forsyth-barr-power-up-tilt-renewables-equity-raising-20180529-h10ny0

also says maybe needed later in year if potential takeover eventuates

[huxley]

citi and forsyths lined up for equity raising for tilt

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/citi-forsyth-barr-power-up-tilt-renewables-equity-raising-20180529-h10ny0

also says maybe needed later in year if potential takeover eventuates


Pretty random article. They seem to think, and frame the article as if the VREAS offer owns Dundonnell and TLT is just one of many contractors tendering to construct the wind farm. When in reality, the project is owned by TLT, who themselves will arrange contractors to build it, and is one of many potential projects bidding for a portion of the VREAS PPA.

:confused::confused::confused:

Still, signs are looking good that this one will be green lit this calendar year :cool:

[James108]

I have a Toyota Hybrid travels 900 - 1000km on a single $70 tank of petrol and charges its own battery when braking. I fail to see why electric cars are unable to charge themselves avoiding costly charges.

You can’t get energy for free first law of thermodynamics says so, they will have to charge at some point.

[bull....]

airline lobby against auckland airport .... one way to intoduce competition is to make wellington airport international

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12061930

[BlackPeter]

airline lobby against auckland airport .... one way to intoduce competition is to make wellington airport international

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12061930

Hardly - considering their traffic volume and geographical constraints. Would need a totally new airport in Wellywood to deal with a comparable traffic volumes - and than, who wants to go to Wellington anyway?

If you want competition for Auckland it might be more promising to swap international traffic from an Auckland hub to Christchurch ... or even to build Hamilton International ;);

[bull....]

Hardly - considering their traffic volume and geographical constraints. Would need a totally new airport in Wellywood to deal with a comparable traffic volumes - and than, who wants to go to Wellington anyway?

If you want competition for Auckland it might be more promising to swap international traffic from an Auckland hub to Christchurch ... or even to build Hamilton International ;);

bp ift are trying to extend the runway at wellington airport so as larger planes can be accomodated, it is typical in my opinion of planning in nz where a lot of decisions are made for short term .... think of trains robbie the mayor planned for auckland 40 odd yrs ago only stopped by short sighted people.

[macduffy]

bp ift are trying to extend the runway at wellington airport so as larger planes can be accomodated, it is typical in my opinion of planning in nz where a lot of decisions are made for short term .... think of trains robbie the mayor planned for auckland 40 odd yrs ago only stopped by short sighted people.

I doubt that it's anything to do with short term/long term planning but rather that IFT own around 2/3rds of Wellington Airport!

[bull....]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/318785

ift owned longreach starting contruction of windfarm

[BlackPeter]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/318785

ift owned longreach starting contruction of windfarm

Interesting timing to build now a wind farm in Texas, given that the US have now a president who hates any renewable energies. Lets see whether he implements some tariffs on wind energy - I guess that would just be fair - the wind comes from overseas (potentially even Mexico - yuk) and destroys US jobs in the oil and coal industry ... :p

[James108]

In terms of the lifecycle of a wind power asset the current President is transient. Especially when considering the near inevitability of the world moving to a low carbon future.

[huxley]

In terms of the lifecycle of a wind power asset the current President is transient. Especially when considering the near inevitability of the world moving to a low carbon future.

Berkshire Hathaway putting in funds

[longy]

Is it Ex Div date today for IFT?

[BeeBop]

Is it Ex Div date today for IFT?

According to NZX.com it is - always easy just to check on-line for yourself.

[longy]

According to NZX.com it is - always easy just to check on-line for yourself.

Thanks BeeBop. I saw that. I was expecting the SP to move down a bit on Ex D date as usual.

[BeeBop]

Thanks BeeBop. I saw that. I was expecting the SP to move down a bit on Ex D date as usual.

I am glad it didn’t!!! Hoping to see this one climb slowly.

[ratkin]

I am glad it didn’t!!! Hoping to see this one climb slowly.

I want it to fall again, temporarily. Been accumulating but stopped after it went over 3.20

[bull....]

Berkshire Hathaway putting in funds

with warren buffet on board, infratils longreach has the potential funding to build many windfarms

[ratkin]

with warren buffet on board, infratils longreach has the potential funding to build many windfarms

What is all this about BH putting in funds? It pretty much all being paid for by infratil and NZsuper issnt it?

[huxley]

What is all this about BH putting in funds? It pretty much all being paid for by infratil and NZsuper issnt it?

From the Longroad announcement:

The construction costs are approximately $300 million with Longroad investing approximately $100 million as sponsor. A subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Energy is providing the balance of the permanent financing. Construction financing is led by KeyBanc Capital Markets as Coordinating Lead Arranger, and HSBC, CIBC, Zions Bank, and National Australia Bank as Joint Lead Arrangers.

[huxley]

Sounds like BH is going to be a debt not an equity investor.

[bull....]

Sounds like BH is going to be a debt not an equity investor.

the fact buffett is even interested in providing financial backing speaks volumes dont you think.

they probably know the people running longreach quite well i imagine. the same people who started first wind in 2002 and sold it 10 yrs later for 2.5 billion are now running longreach so if the first project goes well i imagine berkshire will provide more funding to expand the company.
In the long run berkshire might even take the company over as sounded like infratil was going to sell developments as they alluded to fact that as profits in longreach are made they might use these to pay special divs to shareholder.
i would rather them build the company up in the billions then sell to berkshire than take special divs peicemeal personally


We are excellent stewards of our substantial financial resources. Backed by Berkshire Hathaway, we invest in hard assets and focus on long-term opportunities that will contribute to the future strength of the company

[huxley]

Actually.. “permanent financing” kinda sound like equity doesn’t it.. Ha I dunno, does anyone on here know how to interpret these announcements?

[ratkin]

A subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Energy is providing the balance of the permanent financing.

Berkshire hathaway Energy is One of of around 66 subsidiary companies of Berkshire Hathaway. According to the article it is not even BH Energy that is providing the funding but a subsidiary of BF Energy which would make it a very distant relative and it is unlikely Buffet has anything to do with this deal or even knows of its existance. They probably finance hundreds of these projects

[huxley]

A subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Energy is providing the balance of the permanent financing.

Berkshire hathaway Energy is One of of around 66 subsidiary companies of Berkshire Hathaway. According to the article it is not even BH Energy that is providing the funding but a subsidiary of BF Energy which would make it a very distant relative and it is unlikely Buffet has anything to do with this deal or even knows of its existance. They probably finance hundreds of these projects

That’s the spirit ;)

[bull....]

A subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Energy is providing the balance of the permanent financing.

Berkshire hathaway Energy is One of of around 66 subsidiary companies of Berkshire Hathaway. According to the article it is not even BH Energy that is providing the funding but a subsidiary of BF Energy which would make it a very distant relative and it is unlikely Buffet has anything to do with this deal or even knows of its existance. They probably finance hundreds of these projects

do you really believe Buffett got where he is by not knowing exactly what his companies are up too.

[James108]

do you really believe Buffett got where he is by not knowing exactly what his companies are up too.

Yes, from what I have read about him he is now focused on the “big fish” and let’s his team of talented managers work without his interference.

[bull....]

Yes, from what I have read about him he is now focused on the “big fish” and let’s his team of talented managers work without his interference.

if you read Berkshire Hathaways energy presentation they list berkshire hathaway as there competitive advantage in that BH provides most funding for deals , so i take that as BH would have a very keen interest in what is happening at BHE.

https://www.berkshirehathawayenergyco.com/assets/pdf/2018-fiic-presentation.pdf

[bull....]

notice ift still lagging the performance of some other utilities at the moment which have re rated up strongly last mth , catchup coming?

[kiora]

notice ift still lagging the performance of some other utilities at the moment which have re rated up strongly last mth , catchup coming?

Ssssh,slow & steady

[bull....]

“The future grid will be underpinned by cheap wind and solar, with batteries and pumped hydro helping to smooth out the variability, and with gas acting as a fail-safe,” the Australian head of BNEF, Kobad Bhanvagri said

https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/renewables-to-account-for-90-per-cent-of-all-australian-power-by-2050-says-new-report-20180619-p4zmcm.html

Shame nz wont have the gas as a back - up , we will have coal lol

[silu]

“The future grid will be underpinned by cheap wind and solar, with batteries and pumped hydro helping to smooth out the variability, and with gas acting as a fail-safe,” the Australian head of BNEF, Kobad Bhanvagri said

https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/renewables-to-account-for-90-per-cent-of-all-australian-power-by-2050-says-new-report-20180619-p4zmcm.html

Shame nz wont have the gas as a back - up , we will have coal lol

bull if you believe him may I direct you towards a company I like and can highly recommend. Genex Power (GNX.ASX). They are on track to deliver Australia's 4th Pumped Hydro Project together with Solar and Wind. Here a link to their latest presentation https://youtu.be/M19J1lf-SYc

[bull....]

bull if you believe him may I direct you towards a company I like and can highly recommend. Genex Power (GNX.ASX). They are on track to deliver Australia's 4th Pumped Hydro Project together with Solar and Wind. Here a link to their latest presentation https://youtu.be/M19J1lf-SYc

Thx silu i had a quick look , not for me unfortunately as already have my quota in the sector

[horus1]

The substitute for gas will be fuel cells which means electricity can be stored. The cost of wind and solar is below the price charged to domestic customers now and still dropping .The gains are made when customers go off grid and no longer have line charges . That is happening to a very limited extent but will pick up.

[bull....]

annual meeting august 24th

[silu]

The substitute for gas will be fuel cells which means electricity can be stored. The cost of wind and solar is below the price charged to domestic customers now and still dropping .The gains are made when customers go off grid and no longer have line charges . That is happening to a very limited extent but will pick up.

Pumped Hydro is a fantastic option for energy storage. Batteries themselves are not there yet.

[bull....]

anyone going to the road shows care to ask whats happening with nz bus review?

[bull....]

council looking to end nz bus monopoly in wellington airport

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/105375048/push-for-law-to-guarantee-airport-access-for-councilrun-public-transport-buses

[winner69]

council looking to end nz bus monopoly in wellington airport

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/105375048/push-for-law-to-guarantee-airport-access-for-councilrun-public-transport-buses

Useless service anyway ....more of a commuter service to eastern suburbs than an airport bus....though airport workers may have used it

[Joshuatree]

Been really handy for me.Use it every time im in Welly.Very frequent,every 15-20 mins or something like that, just hang at Manners/Cuba st cnr a short walk from my stay. The bus foray in NZ been bit of dog for Infratil over many years?

[Well Endowed]

if skybus acquire the flyer 'rights' and WCC likely don't provide a secondary option, I can see a hike in prices coming...

[bull....]

if the council pass this whats left of nz bus in wellington is worth less or next to nothing

[bull....]

accc targeting energy retailers , not sure if this will effect ift or tilt

https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/accc-pushes-for-big-changes-to-slash-power-bills-by-a-quarter-20180711-p4zqrq.html

[Jerry]

Be grateful for a regular bus service to the airport. It took years to get one; they used to go to Miramar, Seatoun and miss the airport.

[bull....]

hows the nz bus sale coming along?

[kiora]

Roadshow
CDC My view 3x upside valuation within 2 yrs
RetireAustralia. Valued at asset backing cf Ryman 3x asset backing?IFT have reviewed development pipeline since purchasing.This is why number of units sold was down to 50 from 100.Ramping up to 250-300 in 2-3 yrs.My view 3x upside within 2 yrs.JV with golf clubs great idea.
Longroad Sold 250 MW solar generation in Texas for $30m profit before it was finished.Over 2000 MW ? pipeline of developments in pipeline
NZ Bus: Derisked with councils taking on the risk.$35m income guaranteed?E buses being dropped.NZ bus only has 1 on road.
Haha??? Wellington Council installed E bus charging station in Island Bay but not enough power line capacity so they have installed a diesel generator to power recharging station WTF!

Financing:30% gearing at the moment but likely increasing as more development pipeline ramps up
DRP plan likely to be reinstated at the end of this year

[silu]

Roadshow
CDC My view 3x upside valuation within 2 yrs
RetireAustralia. Valued at asset backing cf Ryman 3x asset backing?IFT have reviewed development pipeline since purchasing.This is why number of units sold was down to 50 from 100.Ramping up to 250-300 in 2-3 yrs.My view 3x upside within 2 yrs.JV with golf clubs great idea.
Longroad Sold 250 MW solar generation in Texas for $30m profit before it was finished.Over 2000 MW ? pipeline of developments in pipeline
NZ Bus: Derisked with councils taking on the risk.$35m income guaranteed?E buses being dropped.NZ bus only has 1 on road.
Haha??? Wellington Council installed E bus charging station in Island Bay but not enough power line capacity so they have installed a diesel generator to power recharging station WTF!

Financing:30% gearing at the moment but likely increasing as more development pipeline ramps up
DRP plan likely to be reinstated at the end of this year

Appreciate it. I've been looking to buy back into IFT and the reinstatement of the DRP might be the clincher.

[bull....]

Roadshow
CDC My view 3x upside valuation within 2 yrs
RetireAustralia. Valued at asset backing cf Ryman 3x asset backing?IFT have reviewed development pipeline since purchasing.This is why number of units sold was down to 50 from 100.Ramping up to 250-300 in 2-3 yrs.My view 3x upside within 2 yrs.JV with golf clubs great idea.
Longroad Sold 250 MW solar generation in Texas for $30m profit before it was finished.Over 2000 MW ? pipeline of developments in pipeline
NZ Bus: Derisked with councils taking on the risk.$35m income guaranteed?E buses being dropped.NZ bus only has 1 on road.
Haha??? Wellington Council installed E bus charging station in Island Bay but not enough power line capacity so they have installed a diesel generator to power recharging station WTF!

Financing:30% gearing at the moment but likely increasing as more development pipeline ramps up
DRP plan likely to be reinstated at the end of this year

thanks for update

[Jantar]

…...but not enough power line capacity so they have installed a diesel generator to power recharging station WTF!.....
This is an issue I pointed out in one of the gentailer threads some time ago. It isn't just a matter of installing charging stations around the country, the untalked about issue is that there just isn't the powerline capacity to install sufficient charging stations to cope. This is particularly so in the more remote areas, but the fact that it has arisen in a city does surprise me. I would have thought that factor would have been thought out in advance.

[Ggcc]

This is an issue I pointed out in one of the gentailer threads some time ago. It isn't just a matter of installing charging stations around the country, the untalked about issue is that there just isn't the powerline capacity to install sufficient charging stations to cope. This is particularly so in the more remote areas, but the fact that it has arisen in a city does surprise me. I would have thought that factor would have been thought out in advance.
I believe this is a council issue not an Infratil issue.

Great to see how they want to increase wealth of shareholders by roughly 12-18% per annum over the next 5 years..... That includes dividends

[artemis]

Government funding for NZBus charging stations at Kilbirnie and Karori. Looks like Wrightspeed is now out of the picture for conversions, now a Chinese supplier.

More than 50 old trolley buses should be converted to battery-power and put back on Wellington's streets from January thanks to a $763,000 government grant.

www.stuff.co.nz/business/106069083/converted-trolley-buses-among-eclectic-mix-of-electric-vehicles-to-get-subsidies

[winner69]

Government funding for NZBus charging stations at Kilbirnie and Karori. Looks like Wrightspeed is now out of the picture for conversions, now a Chinese supplier.

More than 50 old trolley buses should be converted to battery-power and put back on Wellington's streets from January thanks to a $763,000 government grant.

www.stuff.co.nz/business/106069083/converted-trolley-buses-among-eclectic-mix-of-electric-vehicles-to-get-subsidies

Corporate welfare pretty handy eh ...we taxpayers are pretty generous aren’t we

They were going to do all this anyway .....resurrecting something from the redundant trolleys

New contract in Wellington not going well ......huge penalties coming up they say

[kiora]

Government funding for NZBus charging stations at Kilbirnie and Karori. Looks like Wrightspeed is now out of the picture for conversions, now a Chinese supplier.

More than 50 old trolley buses should be converted to battery-power and put back on Wellington's streets from January thanks to a $763,000 government grant.

www.stuff.co.nz/business/106069083/converted-trolley-buses-among-eclectic-mix-of-electric-vehicles-to-get-subsidies

As per Island Bay with diesel generators?

[winner69]

As per Island Bay with diesel generators?

Surely not diesel generators to charge electric bus batteries?

[Ninefingers]

There was some problem with the power supply they can get to the chargers at the moment, hence the generators. The whole network "upgrade" sounds like a complete clusterbus.

[kiora]

Surely not diesel generators to charge electric bus batteries?

Yes!How dopey is that?

[bull....]

big play by mcy and ift takeover of tlt at 2.30

[BlackPeter]

Well - I guess splitting it first from Trustpower did add a lot of negative value, both to Trustpower as well as to Tilt. Will be interesting to see whether they can this way recover some of the losses, though I doubt it.

On the other hand - just removing the company name "Tilt" from the face of the earth must make it a better place? Just wondering who ever thought that Tilt is a good name for an energy company ...

[kiora]

big play by mcy and ift takeover of tlt at 2.30

Earlier than I thought something like this would happen.Must be some good upside in TILT over the next few years

[silu]

Earlier than I thought something like this would happen.Must be some good upside in TILT over the next few years

One of the reasons why I want to buy back into IFT. They play the long game and their foray into renewable energy, data centers & retirement sector coupled with the reintroduction of their DRIP makes it a very attractive investment proposition to me.

[horus1]

Couldnt agree more IFT is positioned for the future.

[Joshuatree]

Id like to get back in too. They have had some failures, they really stuffed up their long game with overseas airports and arguably the bus companies too.

[kiora]

Id like to get back in too. They have had some failures, they really stuffed up their long game with overseas airports and arguably the bus companies too.
JT These would be <5% of their assets!Let it go!:)
Couldn't agree more silu. 60 % of my portfolio

[Joshuatree]

JT These would be <5% of their assets!Let it go!:)
Couldn't agree more silu. 60 % of my portfolio

Cant remember but it was at least two maybe 4 airports in UK, Europe that fizzled . Sold one for $1 or something , it cost me s/p wise so i dont forget. Ironically IFT looks to have performed better post the Lloyd Morrison days, he was a top guy, he would be at the doorway and shake hands with everyone at AGM's etc.RIP

[ratkin]

Cant remember but it was at least two maybe 4 airports in UK, Europe that fizzled . Sold one for $1 or something , it cost me s/p wise so i dont forget. Ironically IFT looks to have performed better post the Lloyd Morrison days, he was a top guy, he would be at the doorway and shake hands with everyone at AGM's etc.RIP

Glasgow, and one in kent that they sold for One pound. They lost around 20m nz from memory

[value_investor]

A very pragmatic approach by two companies that are very long term orientated, this investor approves..

[RTM]

Glasgow, and one in kent that they sold for One pound. They lost around 20m nz from memory

That is one of the benefits of being big. You can make a few mistakes and they don't cripple you. I'm sure that not all of Apples acquisitions have been successes.

[kiora]

That is one of the benefits of being big. You can make a few mistakes and they don't cripple you. I'm sure that not all of Apples acquisitions have been successes.

Or mine :mad ;:,just part of the risk,LTGTR

[bull....]

Earlier than I thought something like this would happen.Must be some good upside in TILT over the next few years

ift wanted the whole thing to themselves lol until mercury saw the upside and crashed the party. guess ift and mcy now are the ways for exposure to tlt

[kiora]

ift wanted the whole thing to themselves lol until mercury saw the upside and crashed the party. guess ift and mcy now are the ways for exposure to tlt

Agree,think Trustpower a few years ago

[Pmdv77]

Share buyback announced for up to 8.9% of issues shares over the next 11 months. Another abject waste of (shareholder) money or a good use of capital - a link to the DRP that may be reintroduced?

[winner69]

Share buyback announced for up to 8.9% of issues shares over the next 11 months. Another abject waste of (shareholder) money or a good use of capital - a link to the DRP that may be reintroduced?

US share buy backs to top a trillion this year so must be a good idea?

[kiora]

Share buyback announced for up to 8.9% of issues shares over the next 11 months. Another abject waste of (shareholder) money or a good use of capital - a link to the DRP that may be reintroduced?

From one who would know?
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/31/warren-buffett-explains-the-enduring-power-of-stock-buybacks.html?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline% 7Cstory%7C&par=yahoo&yptr=yahoo
Presumably only a good use of capital if the company is well capitalized.
IFT have continually had share buybacks approved but only buyback when market has deeply undervalued their share price.
Smart move I would suggest particularly if we are ripe for a sell off in stock prices?
A share buy back approval gives investors some confidence IFT share prce won't drop absurdly.

[macduffy]

Share buyback announced for up to 8.9% of issues shares over the next 11 months. Another abject waste of (shareholder) money or a good use of capital - a link to the DRP that may be reintroduced?

They won't be reintroducing a DRP - to increase issued capital - at the same time as buying back shares - to reduce issued capital!

[kiora]

They won't be reintroducing a DRP - to increase issued capital - at the same time as buying back shares - to reduce issued capital!

At the last investor road show they stated they are looking at reintroducing the DRP at the end of this year.I suggest this is smart.Having a Bob each way.

[macduffy]

At the last investor road show they stated they are looking at reintroducing the DRP at the end of this year.I suggest this is smart.Having a Bob each way.

Maybe. But perhaps the key words are "looking at"?

[kiora]

Where to from here?Well placed
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/95664/productivity-commission-what-we-need-do-ensure-we-have-enough-electricity-power-those

[silu]

What do you guys reckon. I'm looking to re-enter IFT but looks like as if they have to stump up more money for TLT so wait a bit? What does TA say?

[bull....]

What do you guys reckon. I'm looking to re-enter IFT but looks like as if they have to stump up more money for TLT so wait a bit? What does TA say?

its been in a range for the last nearly 4 yrs and is consolidating just above multi yr highs at the moment. market probably waiting to decide which way to push it , back in range or higher

[huxley]

Back up to 3.465 will be interesting to see how the JV goes, still well over 20% of small parcel shareholders have held out till now...

[kiora]

Nice upgrade
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/324602/287717.pdf

[bull....]

Nice upgrade
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/324602/287717.pdf

they were talking about return of cash from longreach

[huxley]

Maybe a special dividend is on the cards :D

[kiora]

Maybe a special dividend is on the cards :D

Better to reinvest into TILT?

[Ggcc]

Maybe a special dividend is on the cards :D
They did discuss this option so I would not be surprised

[artemis]

Strategic review of ANU student accommodation announced, because future opportunities in the sector have not materialised. Sounds like a sell off. Any thoughts about why no sector opportunities?

[bull....]

Strategic review of ANU student accommodation announced, because future opportunities in the sector have not materialised. Sounds like a sell off. Any thoughts about why no sector opportunities?

wasnt really performing so good to see they are looking to flick it

[mondograss]

There's lately been quite a bit in the way of funding cuts and freezes and so forth in the tertiary sector over there and enrolments are dropping quite substantially as a result I understand. They probably don't see the outlook as being anywhere near as good as it was when the acquired it (Rudd uncapped university places in 2009 which drove a lot of growth).

[Pmdv77]

Does anyone have any thoughts on the half year results. On the whole it looks positive ?

[Zeitgeist]

Does anyone have any thoughts on the half year results. On the whole it looks positive ?

Hi Pmdv77 - yesa very good result for IFT. Good noises being made about ongoing dividendgrowth and an EBIT upgrade.

As ever with IFT the key is portfolio changes in the future to ensure ongoingdividend growth for investors along with capital appreciation. Despite IFT's efforts to convince the market otherwise the shares seemlike they'll always trade at a discount to the portfolio NAV. Current NAV of$4.75 according to IFT so around a 36% discount to current share price. Idon't have any sensible benchmarks to hand but a 36% discount to NAV seems highto me.

Strategic reviews underway for ANU, NZ Bus, Perth Energy investments. Whateverthe outcomes of those reviews I'd trust IFT to receive back at least currentbook value, for the three that totals $353m (though based on current earnings adiscount to BV is possible, esp for NZ Bus). Dundonnell will suck up atleast A$166 of that.

Dividend growth should be taken care of by ongoing growth I'd say. But, willthe existing debt facilties plus any net realized 'strategic review'proceeds plus ongoing operating earnings deliver ongoing capitalappreciation (or at least NAV growth)?

My money is on yes!

[bull....]

good result , i like that there more active in ditching poor returning units

[kiora]

My money is on yes too!

[Ggcc]

This share is going well. One of my long longterm holds and it looks like plenty of interest with more than $6 million traded so far today

[BeeBop]

This share is going well. One of my long longterm holds and it looks like plenty of interest with more than $6 million traded so far today

Not to put a dampener on anything...but is it not coming up to ex. dividend? Share price up to get divi then share price will go down again/

[BigBob]

Not to put a dampener on anything...but is it not coming up to ex. dividend? Share price up to get divi then share price will go down again/

It went ex div Monday 26th...

[horus1]

That i sa big jump for IFT on decent volume. Why

[BeeBop]

It went ex div Monday 26th...

ok...so that makes me happy...I don’t really follow it...I just own it (fundamentals haven’t changed for me so leave well enough alone).

[bull....]

ift data centres making a big aquisition

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/infratils-canberra-data-centres-finds-chunky-acquisition-target-20181213-h19212

[macduffy]

ift data centres making a big aquisition

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/infratils-canberra-data-centres-finds-chunky-acquisition-target-20181213-h19212

Thanks, bull.... . Here's the NZX announcement for those of us non afr-enabled.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/328397

[Joshuatree]

$218-$240 million for NZ Bus
Agreement to Sell New Zealand Bus to Next Capital 2 pages 289.3KB (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02063152)

[huxley]

$218-$240 million for NZ Bus
Agreement to Sell New Zealand Bus to Next Capital 2 pages 289.3KB (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02063152)

Holy sh*t, that’s an excellent price

Ho ho ho

[bull....]

retire aus ceo baled wonder if it because the RC starts tomorrow anyway shares still tracking nicely

[artemis]

$218-$240 million for NZ Bus ...

Had a chat to a NZBus driver today. Was at the stop work meeting yesterday, said that the fare strike planned for the end of January was leverage to take advantage of the planned sale.

[bull....]

everyones so busy talking and investing in oca lol they havent noticed ift has been kicking all time highs. been much better way to make money

[huxley]

everyones so busy talking and investing in oca lol they havent noticed ift has been kicking all time highs. been much better way to make money

Biggest position here, up over 18% this Fy

[Mickey]

everyones so busy talking and investing in oca lol they havent noticed ift has been kicking all time highs. been much better way to make money
I noticed it but not sure what's driving the volumes and upward price. Do you happen to know what's behind it?

[kiora]

Biggest position here, up over 18% this Fy

65% :cool:

[huxley]

65% :cool:

Oh nice, I’m more like 29%

Still v happy with the results


There’s normally an investor update in late Jan early Feb

[Bjauck]

everyones so busy talking and investing in oca lol they havent noticed ift has been kicking all time highs. been much better way to make money IMO, Shares go in and out of fashion....perhaps it is in the long-term folder (along with AIA and RYM?)

[kiora]

IMO, Shares go in and out of fashion....perhaps it is in the long-term folder (along with AIA and RYM?)

AIR & RYM are cyclical businesses.Have you got a parachute?

[bull....]

I noticed it but not sure what's driving the volumes and upward price. Do you happen to know what's behind it?

fisher funds been buying earlier also technical breakout of long term top will have caused more buyers to enter + the re - org of there portfolio (ift) is positive for growth

[Bjauck]

AIR & RYM are cyclical businesses.Have you got a parachute? Both AIA and RYM have provided long-term returns exceeding those from the NZX50.

[BlackPeter]

everyones so busy talking and investing in oca lol they havent noticed ift has been kicking all time highs. been much better way to make money

True - hindsight would be an excellent guide, if we could go back in time ;);, but thanks for the reminder.

Looking however forward - it looks to me that the market overvalues IFT at the moment. SP is around analyst consensus, and analyst consensus is for my feeling anyway a bit high for this share. Average backward PE is 14, average forward PE is nearly 23. Growth (revenue and / or earnings) is not existent - and let's face it, which of their investments is likely to make in the short term outstanding capital gains? TPW is a boring gentailer and currently more at the upper price boundary. Their alternative energy investments may or may not bear fruit in a decade or two - and I never understood anyway what brought them into student accomodation. Does not sound like an easy money spinner to me. And their datacentres? Well, not that hard for competiton to build some as well if datacentres are the cash cows of the future (which I doubt).

So - sure, they will keep making some money, but to justify their current SP they would need plenty of sustainable growth. Not sure I see where this is supposed to come from.

I trust you are selling?

[huxley]

True - hindsight would be an excellent guide, if we could go back in time ;);, but thanks for the reminder.

Looking however forward - it looks to me that the market overvalues IFT at the moment. SP is around analyst consensus, and analyst consensus is for my feeling anyway a bit high for this share. Average backward PE is 14, average forward PE is nearly 23. Growth (revenue and / or earnings) is not existent - and let's face it, which of their investments is likely to make in the short term outstanding capital gains? TPW is a boring gentailer and currently more at the upper price boundary. Their alternative energy investments may or may not bear fruit in a decade or two - and I never understood anyway what brought them into student accomodation. Does not sound like an easy money spinner to me. And their datacentres? Well, not that hard for competiton to build some as well if datacentres are the cash cows of the future (which I doubt).

So - sure, they will keep making some money, but to justify their current SP they would need plenty of sustainable growth. Not sure I see where this is supposed to come from.

I trust you are selling?

Aw Blackpeter, I remember you making the same investment case back when the stock was trending down back in late 2016. My only regret is not purchasing more at NZD 2.70

[bull....]

True - hindsight would be an excellent guide, if we could go back in time ;);, but thanks for the reminder.

Looking however forward - it looks to me that the market overvalues IFT at the moment. SP is around analyst consensus, and analyst consensus is for my feeling anyway a bit high for this share. Average backward PE is 14, average forward PE is nearly 23. Growth (revenue and / or earnings) is not existent - and let's face it, which of their investments is likely to make in the short term outstanding capital gains? TPW is a boring gentailer and currently more at the upper price boundary. Their alternative energy investments may or may not bear fruit in a decade or two - and I never understood anyway what brought them into student accomodation. Does not sound like an easy money spinner to me. And their datacentres? Well, not that hard for competiton to build some as well if datacentres are the cash cows of the future (which I doubt).

So - sure, they will keep making some money, but to justify their current SP they would need plenty of sustainable growth. Not sure I see where this is supposed to come from.

I trust you are selling?

stocks in an uptrend why sell? and they announced a strategic review of student acc likely result will sell as ift policy is no perform shown the door.

[BlackPeter]

Aw Blackpeter, I remember you making the same investment case back when the stock was trending down back in late 2016. My only regret is not purchasing more at NZD 2.70

Did I? I probably didn't had the benefit of hindsight ... :p;

But look - I never predict where the SP will go - I only can comment on where I see value (and where not).

How do you make your investment decisions?

[huxley]

stocks in an uptrend why sell? and they announced a strategic review of student acc likely result will sell as ift policy is no perform shown the door.

I haven’t got time to post the details, but I’m pretty sure the PBSA asset has performed well, it’s more a case of the lack of similar investments available and therefore the limited ability to grow the asset class to a meaningful scale with respect of IFT overall portfolio

[bull....]

I haven’t got time to post the details, but I’m pretty sure the PBSA asset has performed well, it’s more a case of the lack of similar investments available and therefore the limited ability to grow the asset class to a meaningful scale with respect of IFT overall portfolio

exactly they are no longer able to get the ift portfolio return required going forward

[kiora]

Both AIA and RYM have provided long-term returns exceeding those from the NZX50.

& Future growth will be .......?

[bull....]

new highs maybe a big round 4 coming

[BlackPeter]

Maybe ...

However - market sentiment is now firmly in "greed" mode, RSI is moving close to 80 (overbought) and volume is dropping. Might not be the best time to buy ...

[bull....]

Maybe ...

However - market sentiment is now firmly in "greed" mode, RSI is moving close to 80 (overbought) and volume is dropping. Might not be the best time to buy ...

sellers drying up market likes big round numbers lol amazing im talking like a bull

[BlackPeter]

sellers drying up market likes big round numbers lol amazing im talking like a bull

Well, yes - but volume keeps dropping and momentum seems to turn. SP broke out of the Bollinger bands - not sustainable. Might touch the next round number or not, but suppose down from there ...

[huxley]

Well, yes - but volume keeps dropping and momentum seems to turn. SP broke out of the Bollinger bands - not sustainable. Might touch the next round number or not, but suppose down from there ...

IFT has a large percentage of public shareholders (something like 50%). Makes me wonder what is driving the speculation..

[bull....]

nothing like the smell of a 4 on it , nobody telling me off for being a bull lol gee 99% of my posts today are bullish will disappoint the hecklers

[huxley]

nothing like the smell of a 4 on it , nobody telling me off for being a bull lol gee 99% of my posts today are bullish will disappoint the hecklers

Currently listening to ‘5 dollars’ by Christine & the Queens ;)

[bull....]

Currently listening to ‘5 dollars’ by Christine & the Queens ;)

could be right one day. they have some big growth assets , glad tilt takeover failed got the chance to stay in it for the huge growth ahead , obviously thats why ift wanted it all to themselves.

[ratkin]

First time I have looked at share prices for a couple of weeks.

Taking my eye off the pot has certainly let it boil. Last time I looked it was 3.50 now 3.90 Finally some recognition coming through of what a great portfolio they have put together

[BeeBop]

I first purchased this share in 1996 for 50cents...unfortunately I sold it to buy my first home....but have been back in for a wee while...I pay limited attention to it but was impressed with Jeremy Medlin’s interview with Tim Cook so have been following it a little more.

[BlackPeter]

nothing like the smell of a 4 on it , nobody telling me off for being a bull lol gee 99% of my posts today are bullish will disappoint the hecklers

Well, looks like we passed the peak - and it didn't had a 4 handle. Remember the overbought RSI and the out of Bollinger bands - all down from here?

[huxley]

Well, looks like we passed the peak - and it didn't had a 4 handle. Remember the overbought RSI and the out of Bollinger bands - all down from here?

VWAP is still 388.98, too soon to call it perhaps?

[bull....]

Well, looks like we passed the peak - and it didn't had a 4 handle. Remember the overbought RSI and the out of Bollinger bands - all down from here?

ahh bp you ruined the party with your bearishness lol

[bull....]

still holding up for the hoped for 4 dollar party

[huxley]

still holding up for the hoped for 4 dollar party

It’s never been closer :)

What do you think the likely full year dividend will be this year?