IFT - Infratil

[bull....]

It’s never been closer :)

What do you think the likely full year dividend will be this year?

im thinking 11c min even the status quo is good by me i prefer that moneys reinvested for growth in there portfolio over divs but i know alot of s/h like the divs. s/h cant complain last yr been good to them capital gains + divs is a very nice return for the yr

[huxley]

I know it’s an arbitrary number, but looks like we’ll that NZD 4.00 mark today (market cap NZD 2,214,741,537.00 :) )

[bull....]

I know it’s an arbitrary number, but looks like we’ll that NZD 4.00 mark today (market cap NZD 2,214,741,537.00 :) )

4.02 now:)

[artemis]

Infratil is a well run company, sticks to its knitting, but why the run up now? My theory is that it is a good place for landlords to park the tax free proceeds from selling their rentals. Same with the gentailers and retirement sector.

Sales by landlords fly under the radar, mostly, because of one here, one there. Anecdotally some are selling. Some harder data from me, albeit in a small way. We have lost 3 landlords as clients, all long term, in the past year. One has just sold a block of 4 in Wellington's most expensive suburb, settlement next month. Another has 2 on the market, another sold 1 and we are helping a fourth to get ready to sell. (We do property maintenance.)

[BlackPeter]

ahh bp you ruined the party with your bearishness lol

Well, you got your $4 party - congratulations! Suppose you are out by now?

While IFT is no doubt a solid investment fund (wouldn't call it a company), looking at their EPS as well as historic and forecasted growth, they are clearly not a growth company - at best a boring cyclical.

Average EPS over the last 10 years is 26 cents; Forward EPS (3 years average) is 16 cents - meaning forward PE is 24.5 ... and this for a proven no-growth company. We looked already at EPS (which dropped quite significantly compared to average). 2010 revenue was $1836m, 2021 forecast is $1845m. Spot the trend? Flatlining revenue and dropping earnings ...

Beats me why anybody wants to pay $4 for this company ... what am I missing?

[horus1]

They make their money buying and selling assets and they are good at it. athey are in the right sectors,renewable energy,data centers, age care and are ruthless in dropping bad investments,. Good firm I keep adding but have to buy at right time.

[BlackPeter]

They make their money buying and selling assets and they are good at it. athey are in the right sectors,renewable energy,data centers, age care and are ruthless in dropping bad investments,. Good firm I keep adding but have to buy at right time.

I see that and agree with your comment that one has to buy at the right time!

[bull....]

I see that and agree with your comment that one has to buy at the right time!

and sell at the right time being when the trend changes

[macduffy]

Beats me why anybody wants to pay $4 for this company ... what am I missing?

With major assets in places like Tauranga, Wellington, Australia etc IFT probably doesn't have the profile in the South Is. as in some other areas!

;)

Sorry, BP. Being an old native Cantabrian I couldn't resist that. :)

[BlackPeter]

With major assets in places like Tauranga, Wellington, Australia etc IFT probably doesn't have the profile in the South Is. as in some other areas!

;)

Sorry, BP. Being an old native Cantabrian I couldn't resist that. :)

Interesting - I didn't realise that they have secret assets. Probably a disadvantage to live far from the big smoke and the big rain ... ;);

Their official asset backing (NTA) is (according to direct broking - sorry, was too lazy to check the balance sheet) $3.03.

Sure - not bad ... though some of their assetts might not be that easy to liquidate if they have to ... but than, others might be.

If you want to know how much e.g. a $120m windfarm (NWF) can be worth on the market if you need to sell - look no further than Palmerston North ;). And hey - NWF are at the moment quite dear (nearly $40m marketcap) - some years ago the market paid less than half of that for the $120m investment.

[Hectorplains]

There should be news on the horizon of their ANU Student Accommodation investment. Hopefully, they can shift it for around the carrying value. Although IFT have a habit of flicking stuff with a discount and this one has very limited growth potential.

[bull....]

Bidders were waiting by their phones on Thursday with Infratil and Ironstone set to anoint a preferred buyer

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/bigwigs-slug-it-out-for-infratils-student-housing-bids-in-20190321-h1cmcx

sounds like student housing is pratically sold

[BlackPeter]

Bidders were waiting by their phones on Thursday with Infratil and Ironstone set to anoint a preferred buyer

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/bigwigs-slug-it-out-for-infratils-student-housing-bids-in-20190321-h1cmcx

sounds like student housing is pratically sold

Hmm - I guess I always found it difficult to understand why IFT bought this "concession" in the first place - does not fit to their normal modus operandi. However, you sort of have to wonder why buyers are queueing up? What do they see in this investment what IFT didn't discover?

[kiora]

Hmm - I guess I always found it difficult to understand why IFT bought this "concession" in the first place - does not fit to their normal modus operandi. However, you sort of have to wonder why buyers are queueing up? What do they see in this investment what IFT didn't discover?

Hmmm. Or ,why are they queuing up now after IFT discovered it and bought it with little competition back then? Prudent buying back then or not?

[BlackPeter]

Hmmm. Or ,why are they queuing up now after IFT discovered it and bought it with little competition back then? Prudent buying back then or not?

I don't know - just remind us - what is their overall return from this student accomodation?

[artemis]

Didn't work out as planned / hoped ...

infratil.com/for-investors/announcements/2018/strategic-review-of-anu-student-accommodation-concession/

[bull....]

ift rocking , over 4 again must be expecting a ggood price

[Onion]

ift rocking , over 4 again must be expecting a good price

According to Direct Broking:


Price/Earnings Ratio: 67.03

That ratio expects something more than a 4.21% dividend return.

Wow! Infrastructure is obviously hot at present. It hasn't quite matched the upward slope of MEL recently though but I guess that is an unfair comparison -- MEL steady and boring, IFT always expected to pull something out of the hat.

[bull....]

According to Direct Broking:



That ratio expects something more than a 4.21% dividend return.

Wow! Infrastructure is obviously hot at present. It hasn't quite matched the upward slope of MEL recently though but I guess that is an unfair comparison -- MEL steady and boring, IFT always expected to pull something out of the hat.

ift 4.10 now trying to catch mel

[Bjauck]

According to Direct Broking:



That ratio expects something more than a 4.21% dividend return.

Wow! Infrastructure is obviously hot at present. It hasn't quite matched the upward slope of MEL recently though but I guess that is an unfair comparison -- MEL steady and boring, IFT always expected to pull something out of the hat. A good dividend yield from infrastructure investments is well sought after in an environment of falling interest rates.

[huxley]

ift 4.10 now trying to catch mel

Wasn’t the advice on here to sell as soon as it hit 4$? :)

[bull....]

Wasn’t the advice on here to sell as soon as it hit 4$? :)

i never give advice , but my initial target was $4 ( which is based on chart patterns) which we got too and it consolidated and since has moved higher.

bp asked me on this thread if i sell since it reached $4 but i said why would i sell when its in a uptrend so theres your answer.

[huxley]

i never give advice , but my initial target was $4 ( which is based on chart patterns) which we got too and it consolidated and since has moved higher.

bp asked me on this thread if i sell since it reached $4 but i said why would i sell when its in a uptrend so theres your answer.

Ha, yea I know your long on this stock and wasn’t suggesting you were going to sell at 4$ quite the contrary.

[Ggcc]

Why are we going so high today? Does someone know something that we don’t know? Heavy turnover yesterday as well.

[huxley]

They normally provide an update in February, which hasn’t occurred this year..

[bull....]

Why are we going so high today? Does someone know something that we don’t know? Heavy turnover yesterday as well.

could be to do with the sale

[macduffy]

Or just as likely, it's that word "Infrastructure" that appeals these days.

Disc: Holding.

[Ggcc]

could be to do with the sale

"The Sale" of what...... shares?

[BeeBop]

"The Sale" of what...... shares?

I think it is the student accommodation...

[bull....]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/332736

Agreement Sell ANU Student Accommodation concession to AMP

[kiora]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/332736

Agreement Sell ANU Student Accommodation concession to AMP

Brought for A$82.5 million Aug 2016

[Ggcc]

Brought for A$82.5 million Aug 2016
Great little profit they made on this one. Glad to be invested in this share.

[bull....]

Great little profit they made on this one. Glad to be invested in this share.

yes great stock , next stop 5? be good if it happens

[Ggcc]

Another 10 cents up and no sign of the rise quitting. One of my stock picks and I have quite a few of these. I wonder when it stops as even I think this stock is not a buy anymore but rather a hold for the longterm

[value_investor]

Another 10 cents up and no sign of the rise quitting. One of my stock picks and I have quite a few of these. I wonder when it stops as even I think this stock is not a buy anymore but rather a hold for the longterm

Bought this one a whil ago in a relatively small quantity to add some defensive plays to the portfolio. Agree with you that this one is definitely not a buy atm, but it would be one of the my first ones in a crash scenario. Long term tailwinds to strong to ignore.

[bull....]

Infratil advises its Underlying EBITDAF(ii) guidance for the year to 31 March 2019 is now revised from NZ$580 to NZ$620 million to NZ$535 to NZ$545 million

massive downgrade $5 here we come lol

[kiora]

Infratil advises its Underlying EBITDAF(ii) guidance for the year to 31 March 2019 is now revised from NZ$580 to NZ$620 million to NZ$535 to NZ$545 million

massive downgrade $5 here we come lol

Plus including hefty Morrison & Co fee of $95m-$105m? but I suppose IFT can afford it
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/333058

[huxley]

Infratil advises its Underlying EBITDAF(ii) guidance for the year to 31 March 2019 is now revised from NZ$580 to NZ$620 million to NZ$535 to NZ$545 million

massive downgrade $5 here we come lol

Ahh, looks like Morrison and co are picking up $95-105 million fee here, hence the downgrade

[bull....]

Plus including hefty Morrison & Co fee of $95m-$105m? but I suppose IFT can afford it
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/333058

bit annoying these external fees payable similar to the vital healthcare ones. what happens if assets are revalued down ? do they refund the fee

[RTM]

Infratil advises its Underlying EBITDAF(ii) guidance for the year to 31 March 2019 is now revised from NZ$580 to NZ$620 million to NZ$535 to NZ$545 million

massive downgrade $5 here we come lol

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/333058

It sounds like this is due to massively underestimated payments to Morrison and Company. I don’t fully understand the interaction between the two, but they were estimating around 30Mil...and in fact it’s around 100Mil. This is on the back of increased valuations of Tilt, Data Center and Longroad. Wow. Big difference. If their value drops....does Infratil get a credit from Longroad ?
https://hrlmorrison.com/portfolio/#NZ
Wonder what they contribute ?

[Leftfield]

The complexity of the arrangement between IFT and Morrison's is the reason I have never invested in IFT. Seems Morrison's is always going to take the cream.

[RTM]

Infratil advises its Underlying EBITDAF(ii) guidance for the year to 31 March 2019 is now revised from NZ$580 to NZ$620 million to NZ$535 to NZ$545 million

massive downgrade $5 here we come lol

Maybe you mean 3 ?

[freddagg]

The Incentive fee of $100 million odd is because of an upgrade to the carrying value of the Datacentres, Longroad and Tilt.
Would I be right in assuming this upgrade increases Infratils net assets by about $1.30 per share.

[bull....]

The Incentive fee of $100 million odd is because of an upgrade to the carrying value of the Datacentres, Longroad and Tilt.
Would I be right in assuming this upgrade increases Infratils net assets by about $1.30 per share.

assets increase , but less cash available to invest in the assets. asset increase is only good if your going to sell the asset or use them to borrow more against at some stage

[horus1]

That explains the rerating of IFT. It is usually priced against asset valur per share at a discount.

[huxley]

Question: is the fee announced this morning a one off charge?

[longy]

Question: is the fee announced this morning a one off charge?

My understanding is when the valuation of asset is greater than 12%, they get 20% of any gain above 12%, after three years of asset ownership. I think the gain also inclusive of any asset sold during that period.

[bull....]

not much of a fall yesterday so all good eh

[BlackPeter]

not much of a fall yesterday so all good eh

Funny you are downraming a solid stock with a forward PE of below 9 (like SUM) and concurrently up ramping another (as solid, but much dearer) stock with a forward PE of 25 (IFT). Unless you just try to ramp IFT up for you to sell - at some stage pure TA reliance might catch you out ;);

Fundamentals actually do matter :)

[bull....]

Funny you are downraming a solid stock with a forward PE of below 9 (like SUM) and concurrently up ramping another (as solid, but much dearer) stock with a forward PE of 25 (IFT). Unless you just try to ramp IFT up for you to sell - at some stage pure TA reliance might catch you out ;);

Fundamentals actually do matter :)

fundamentals of ift are better than sum and ift has macro tailwinds where as sum has macro headwinds

[BlackPeter]

fundamentals of ift are better than sum and ift has macro tailwinds where as sum has macro headwinds

I recon this is just your opinion (and you are absolutely entitled to it) - or would you mind to provide some evidence for the better fundamentals of IFT? How do you measure that? Can't be PE (SUM is much better in that regard), NTA to SP (both quite comparable in that regard) or SUM's outstanding growth compared to IFT's shrinking (both EPS CAGR as well as revenue CAGR for IFT are negative).

Ah yes, I forgot - you like negative - don't you?

[bull....]

I recon this is just your opinion (and you are absolutely entitled to it) - or would you mind to provide some evidence for the better fundamentals of IFT? How do you measure that? Can't be PE (SUM is much better in that regard), NTA to SP (both quite comparable in that regard) or SUM's outstanding growth compared to IFT's shrinking (both EPS CAGR as well as revenue CAGR for IFT are negative).

Ah yes, I forgot - you like negative - don't you?

i just told you macro

sum cant have favourable earnings without favourable macro , ift has defensive and growth businesses

[horus1]

I agree ,BULL . IFT still get 80%

[BlackPeter]

i just told you macro

sum cant have favourable earnings without favourable macro , ift has defensive and growth businesses

Macro?

I don't think you know what you are talking about ... but let's give you a chance - shall we?

How do you measure "macro" and why is IFT's "macro" better than SUM's?

[bull....]

Macro?

I don't think you know what you are talking about ... but let's give you a chance - shall we?

How do you measure "macro" and why is IFT's "macro" better than SUM's?

i dont have time to go into this but you should read about top down investing and bottom up investing , you seem only to look at the later in your accessment of sum

[kiora]

fundamentals of ift are better than sum and ift has macro tailwinds where as sum has macro headwinds

I agree :)

[horus1]

Reading the slides from the presentation this morning they seem to be on track and forward looking. I am adding when I get cash.

[Well Endowed]

Topped up a few on the small dip this morning. I like the long term direction and focus on core industries- certainly a far-cry from the European airport strategy...!

[bull....]

Infratil looks at replicating Longroad in Europehttps://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12221102

[Ggcc]

I do think this company is great at increasing shareholder wealth over the longterm. I do not however see IFT being a buy at these prices more of a longterm hold. I think it has been valued lower for quite some time and that slightly above fair value is at these prices. Somehow I don’t see the share price heading further north In the short term, but I remain invested as those dividends look damn fine. Of course I could be wrong as the market dictates what the value of something is and not me

[kiora]

Asset value $4:17/share without upside recognized

[bull....]

Canberra Data Centres expects to grow its operating profit run-rate by more than 50 percent this year after increasing it by 35 percent in the March year just gone.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1904/S00329/infratils-cdc-forecasts-50-run-rate-ebitda-growth.htm

bp thats growth eh

[BlackPeter]

Canberra Data Centres expects to grow its operating profit run-rate by more than 50 percent this year after increasing it by 35 percent in the March year just gone.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1904/S00329/infratils-cdc-forecasts-50-run-rate-ebitda-growth.htm

bp thats growth eh

Glad for them - they will need this growth given that some of their other investments (like TLT) are slower burners ;);

[emveha]

Back to square one for the Wellington airport runway extension consent. :mad ;:

[JayRiggs]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/309ca575/nz-super-fund-to-invest-us-115m-in-north-american-data-centres.html

hmmmm I wonder if Infratil will follow NZ Super Fund to invest in North American data centres? Seems like a good use of Infratil's growing cash pile.

[kiora]

Infratil looks at replicating Longroad in Europehttps://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12221102

Just need to get the numbers working.Turbine $1000000,front up with 30 %,borrow 70 % @ 6%,EU guaranteed 10 % return over 5 yrs =19 %/year return.Does that work?

[bull....]

fees forgotten about lol , moving to new highs now

[bull....]

new highs again today , maybe my $5 price was not so silly?

[BlackPeter]

Interesting view in Chris Lee latest "Taking Stock" on Infratil.

https://www.chrislee.co.nz/taking-stock

If you are not a customer you will need to register (for free) to read - and scroll down to Ed Lee (basically the second part of the newsletter)

He (Ed Lee) comments on Infratil's move from dividend stock to growth stock and mentions that growth stocks often need additional money to grow.

I agree as well with his view on the management fees.

From a personal perspective I'd see IFT currently as quite dear ... particularly considering their large investment in alternative energies. That's feel good stuff and might at some stage pay (material) dividends, but unlikely over the next decade or so.

I am sure the market will sort that out whenever they come to it ;);

[winner69]

That $100m outperformance fee to Morrison mentioned is one big lump of money eh.

[horus1]

You take your view on alternative energy,I take mine. Mine is that this is the field to be in ,the NZ Electricity Industry has its head in the sand and is ripe for major disruption by renewables. 65% non CO2 etc. If you take my view buy IFT if yours leave them. So that you can make a judgement remember B.Harker is a very good analyst of the electricity markets as is G Sweir, both are close to IFT.I have been buying.

[kiora]

IFT has plenty of money to grow.$500m
• Current capital settings:
– Approximately $500m of cash and available facilities prior to any potential divestments
– Reliable Free Cash Flow from core assets
– Aligned JV partners with access to capital
– Long average duration for retail bonds and access to senior bank debt
– Discretion/control over timing of major project investment
– Major development options with low carry cost and lengthy exercise periods
– Ability to raise debt at project level
– Sensible DPS and distribution strategy with active buy-back programme
Now issuing bonds < 5%

[Beagle]

That $100m outperformance fee to Morrison mentioned is one big lump of money eh.

Breathtaking and all the more so because its primarily based on subjective theoretical valuations of non listed companies and not on realised profit on same.
I have never owned Infratil shares because I believe the management fees payable to Morrison are grossly excessive and this latest and most egregious fee debauchery is completely outrageous in my opinion.

[horus1]

The fee is over 3years and reflects the sort of profits you can get outside NZ. I get 80% . Its fair and am buying more .

[macduffy]

The fee is over 3years and reflects the sort of profits you can get outside NZ. I get 80% . Its fair and am buying more .
"Fair" or not, I've done very well out of holding - and adding to - my IFT parcel and I'll continue to hold while the stock continues to perform.

:cool:

[BlackPeter]

That $100m outperformance fee to Morrison mentioned is one big lump of money eh.

Big lump, that's for sure. Wondering whether they would be happy to pay back some of the money if and when property stocks and infrastructure crumble. Can't happen? Look no further than at our very own NWF;);

But I am sure if this happens then it will be just "caveat emptor" - could not possibly have anything to do with the managers performance - can it? Manager just shares the spoils.

[Beagle]

Big lump, that's for sure. Wondering whether they would be happy to pay back some of the money if and when property stocks and infrastructure crumble. Can't happen? Look no further than at our very own NWF;);

But I am sure if this happens then it will be just "caveat emptor" - could not possibly have anything to do with the managers performance - can it? Manager just shares the spoils.

Paying massive performance fees based on some theoretical valuation exercise without the hard supporting evidence of either a listed stock to check the real market value or the benefit of an actual transaction validating same is wide open to the possibility of error or manipulation. With tens of millions of dollars at stake the mind boggles as to how many "independent" valuations of the various assets Morrisons commissioned before choosing the ones that conferred them the greatest commercial advantage ?

So many assumptions go into valuing a private company, (many on here would have no idea) and the variance between one valuation and another by so called experts can be truly eye watering. I don't care what the management agreement says I think its morally repugnant to charge massive performance fees on unrealised theoretical valuation gains that could quite easily prove to be grossly inaccurate or as BP suggests, reverse over time.

[kiora]

"The country’s share of renewable power generation - almost 84 percent last year - is likely to reach the “low to mid” 90 percent mark relatively easily, he said.

But maintaining affordable supplies is going to be a challenge if the government persists with a 100 percent renewables target."
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a07d3882/increasing-focus-on-low-emission-supply-chains-an-nz-opportunity.html?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+30+ April+2019

[bull....]

"The country’s share of renewable power generation - almost 84 percent last year - is likely to reach the “low to mid” 90 percent mark relatively easily, he said.

But maintaining affordable supplies is going to be a challenge if the government persists with a 100 percent renewables target."
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a07d3882/increasing-focus-on-low-emission-supply-chains-an-nz-opportunity.html?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+30+ April+2019

never get to 100% , the gas industry has said gas will run out in 10yrs so the country will need to import coal and gas to maintain energy at current levels. so to stopthat would need huge investment in more power plants

[RTM]

"The country’s share of renewable power generation - almost 84 percent last year - is likely to reach the “low to mid” 90 percent mark relatively easily, he said.

But maintaining affordable supplies is going to be a challenge if the government persists with a 100 percent renewables target."
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a07d3882/increasing-focus-on-low-emission-supply-chains-an-nz-opportunity.html?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+30+ April+2019

Governments come and go Kiora. Same as policies.

[kiora]

Governments come and go Kiora. Same as policies.
:)
and climate change comes & goes

[bull....]

:)
and climate change comes & goes

mean while the price hits new highs

[Ggcc]

mean while the price hits new highs
And it keeps going up. One of my best investments

[clearasmud]

The big news today about 1,000,000 species at risk and people
must reduce their impact on the enviroment.
IFT operates in this area.
Glad I bought this last year ,helps makes up for STU,MHJ and TRA timing errors lol.

[winner69]

The big news today about 1,000,000 species at risk and people
must reduce their impact on the enviroment.
IFT operates in this area.
Glad I bought this last year ,helps makes up for STU,MHJ and TRA timing errors lol.


Hmm - they want to extend Wellington Airport to encourage more flying

[Baa_Baa]

Too far too fast imo, the faster they go up, the faster they go down. Best to be on this like a rash (not just this, there’s a few that have gone ballistic), be nimble when it turns over, enjoy the profits rather than lament the next reversion. Can always buy a few more later with the entry capital and the profits after the dust settles.

[couta1]

Too far too fast imo, the faster they go up, the faster they go down. Best to be on this like a rash (not just this, there’s a few that have gone ballistic), be nimble when it turns over, enjoy the profits rather than lament the next reversion. Can always buy a few more later with the entry capital and the profits after the dust settles. Yep this and CNU avoid like a rash at current prices, poor dividend yields and PE's far too high.

[kiora]

Damn,I could be wrong again but let the good ones run.
4 X bager :) ,64% of portfolio

[couta1]

Damn,I could be wrong again but let the good ones run.
4 X bager :) ,64% of portfolio At your entry price let it run but looking to enter at current price run away instead. Lol

[kiora]

Agree there C
15% compounding yearly doesn't sound great BUT $1 becomes $4 over 10 years
I do like their future run way as well :)

[silu]

Just read on Twitter. Apparently IFT is in talks to buy Vodafone.

[BigBob]

Just read on Twitter. Apparently IFT is in talks to buy Vodafone.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/334346

[silu]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/334346

Ahh should have read the NZX first. Thought I was privy to some inside goss there for a moment.

[BigBob]

Ahh should have read the NZX first. Thought I was privy to some inside goss there for a moment.

Inside goss on twitter....?? Hand me a Tui, please... :-)

[Well Endowed]

seems like a good fit, especially leveraging into the trustpower customerbase

[Bjauck]

Just read on Twitter. Apparently IFT is in talks to buy Vodafone. Hang on to your seats, Telecoms and ISPs have had a bumpy ride. If they do, maybe they will get Vodafone email back up and running.

Vodafone stopped their ISP email service and now they are even stopping their email forwarding to existing customers, despite their promise to forward emails to clients for as long as they remained clients. What a cop out. It looks like spam beat them.

[bull....]

my $5 could be bang on lol power and ph mean combination

[bull....]

Morrison, Brookfield in talks to buy Vodafone NZ


British telecommunications giant Vodafone Group is in talks to sell its New Zealand business to a pair of heavyweight financial investors in a deal that would be worth about $2.5 billion.

https://www.afr.com/business/telecom...0190509-p51ljg (https://www.afr.com/business/telecommunications/morrison-brookfield-in-talks-to-buy-vodafone-nz-20190509-p51ljg)

the article say talks are very advanced and that Marko Bogoievski was cfo of telecom nz back yrs ago

[Beagle]

Vodafail's service is complete rubbish...heaps of people I know say the same thing...I would not be pleased if I were an IFT shareholder. How much will Morrison and Co get by way of transaction fees ?
$100m not enough for them the other day ?
I remain totally underwhelmed by the extremely expensive fees that Morrison and Co change IFT.

[huxley]

Is this going to be another Z Energy/ Shell NZ situation?

[kiora]

Is this going to be another Z Energy/ Shell NZ situation?

Hope so :)

[BlackCross]

MorningStar have a valuation this morning. of $3.10

:...We have ceased coverage on Infratil. We periodically adjust coverage as necessary based on stock outlook, client demand, and investor interest. Infratil is overvalued following a strong share price rally during the past two years, and we think further strong gains are unlikely.

The outlook for its portfolio is mixed. Trustpower and Wellington Airport are mature, moaty businesses which should generate moderate earnings growth over time from reinvesting in their assets. Canberra Data Centres is growing quickly and generating strong returns by rolling out more capacity to accommodate the Australian government's need to digitise its huge amount data.

Other assets are not as attractive. Tilt Renewables in Australia and New Zealand and Longroad in the U.S. will spend large sums building new wind and solar farms, though we doubt returns will impress given huge numbers of competing renewable energy developers. We are also not overly enthusiastic about its retirement operations. Retirement living has proven to be a difficult industry to make profits, despite the tailwind from ageing populations. NZ Bus appears to be stabilising after the loss of some major routes to competitors and is likely to be sold. Similarly, Perth Energy has returned to profitability and is likely to be sold. ..."

Make of that what you will.

[macduffy]

Hope so :)

And let's hope it doesn't turn out to be a European airport experience or a NZ Bus ride. I've done very well out of IFT over the years but their (Morrison's) picks aren't always winners.

[kiora]

And let's hope it doesn't turn out to be a European airport experience or a NZ Bus ride. I've done very well out of IFT over the years but their (Morrison's) picks aren't always winners.

Quietly confident of their strategy on this.My thinking is it will tie in well with the Trustpower offers.

[BeeBop]

MorningStar have a valuation this morning. of $3.10

:...We have ceased coverage on Infratil. We periodically adjust coverage as necessary based on stock outlook, client demand, and investor interest. Infratil is overvalued following a strong share price rally during the past two years, and we think further strong gains are unlikely.

The outlook for its portfolio is mixed. Trustpower and Wellington Airport are mature, moaty businesses which should generate moderate earnings growth over time from reinvesting in their assets. Canberra Data Centres is growing quickly and generating strong returns by rolling out more capacity to accommodate the Australian government's need to digitise its huge amount data.

Other assets are not as attractive. Tilt Renewables in Australia and New Zealand and Longroad in the U.S. will spend large sums building new wind and solar farms, though we doubt returns will impress given huge numbers of competing renewable energy developers. We are also not overly enthusiastic about its retirement operations. Retirement living has proven to be a difficult industry to make profits, despite the tailwind from ageing populations. NZ Bus appears to be stabilising after the loss of some major routes to competitors and is likely to be sold. Similarly, Perth Energy has returned to profitability and is likely to be sold. ..."

Make of that what you will.


I am assuming that the comments are backwards looking (like so many analysts).

[kiora]

I am assuming BC wanted more IFT ? :)
https://www.marketscreener.com/INFRATIL-LTD-6494631/consensus/

[bull....]

wonder if its a done deal for vodaphone nz

this from trustpower

Later this year, Trustpower will introduce both mobile phone and wireless broadband services, further building on itsposition as a leading provider of bundled services

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TPW/334397/299720.pdf

[longy]

wonder if its a done deal for vodaphone nz

this from trustpower

Later this year, Trustpower will introduce both mobile phone and wireless broadband services, further building on itsposition as a leading provider of bundled services

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TPW/334397/299720.pdf

I have been with Vodafone for many years but power is with some one else... It will be interesting if it is the case and perhaps a bundle package for power, mobile and broadband as well.

[RTM]

I have been with Vodafone for many years but power is with some one else... It will be interesting if it is the case and perhaps a bundle package for power, mobile and broadband as well.

Personally I dislike the bundled approach for doing business. I like to chose who I get my services from, and shop around for each one, and not be tied to one because of a bundle.
I just want the supplier to offer me a proper/fair price for whatever service it might be.
Each to their own I guess.

[bull....]

bundled offering is very good for company bottom line. wonder how spark will respond to this new competition ( if it happens) power / ph / gas bundle vrs ph / entertainment bundle.

[artemis]

Stuff headline 12 May

Vodafone NZ needs buyer with a head for complexity

NBR headline

Infratil development expected by Tuesday as new bidders said to have emerged

www.stuff.co.nz/business/112655320/vodafone-nz-needs-buyer-with-a-head-for-complexity

[RTM]

bundled offering is very good for company bottom line. wonder how spark will respond to this new competition ( if it happens) power / ph / gas bundle vrs ph / entertainment bundle.

Yes...and I imagine it makes customers pretty sticky.
Being good for the company bottom line...probably means its not so good for the consumers overall.

[bull....]

ift person just resigned from spark board due to conflict of interest


https://www.nzx.com/announcements/334458

[longy]

So it is considered a done deal.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/112669368/vodafone-nz-sold-for-34b

[bull....]

So it is considered a done deal.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/112669368/vodafone-nz-sold-for-34b

looks like it , wonder how big the cap raise will be

[RTM]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/334468

[King1212]

Going to raise $400m of equity

[couta1]

Going to raise $400m of equity Looks like a messy can of worms deal for IFT and after all it's Vodafail we are talking about here. Lol

[winner69]

Going to raise $400m of equity

About 70 cents for every share so something like a 1 for 7 at 4 bucks

[bull....]

Looks like a messy can of worms deal for IFT and after all it's Vodafail we are talking about here. Lol

think spark will be a little more worried now with ift taking on vodaph. vodaph will offer a much different bundle

[winner69]

Looks like a messy can of worms deal for IFT and after all it's Vodafail we are talking about here. Lol

Might get ComCom permission ...might have to sell Trustpower ...might have to sell their share of consortium .....lot of mights but they’ll sort it out

One thing RetireAustralia is up for sale.

[BlackPeter]

About 70 cents for every share so something like a 1 for 6 at 4 bucks

What lucky coincident IFT shares are trading so high these days ...

While I think this is an interesting move for IFT with potential to improve the NZ communication industry - I am pretty sure that there will be later on better opportunities to buy more IFT shares, but hey - time will tell.

[Ggcc]

I can see them holding Vodafone for at least a couple of years and then floating like what they did with Shell(Z). They made great money out of that and who knows, maybe they might float Vodafone in three years for roughly 4-5 billion by then. Great return to shareholders.

I will remain a happy holder for now.

[macduffy]

About 70 cents for every share so something like a 1 for 6 at 4 bucks

Announcement seemed to indicate that not all the equity would be raised from existing shareholders.

"A significant proportion of any equity raising is expected to be directed towards existing shareholders."

[Well Endowed]

presumably any sale of the retire australia business would be redeployed here too?

[macduffy]

I can see them holding Vodafone for at least a couple of years and then floating like what they did with Shell(Z). They made great money out of that and who knows, maybe they might float Vodafone in three years for roughly 4-5 billion by then. Great return to shareholders.

I will remain a happy holder for now.

Getting a bit ahead of ourselves here but Brookfields, as equal partners, may have a say in future plans!

;)

[Leftfield]

Interesting times for IFT holders.

A big transition in the works from 'traditional infrastructure' (power, transport, airports etc) to 'digital infrastructure' (data storage, data distribution, phone data) etc.

Over the past 5 yrs, IFT's SP has pretty much tracked the NZX 50 index. Will this change going forward?

For the time being, news of more capital raising seems to be taking the froth off recent SP rises.

10535

[bull....]

Interesting times for IFT holders.

A big transition in the works from 'traditional infrastructure' (power, transport, airports etc) to 'digital infrastructure' (data storage, data distribution, phone data) etc.

Over the past 5 yrs, IFT's SP has pretty much tracked the NZX 50 index. Will this change going forward?

For the time being, news of more capital raising seems to be taking the froth off recent SP rises.

10535

all part of there previously mentioned re - strategy to position the portfolio for growth

bit like a core / satelite investment portfolio

[Beagle]

Can't help wondering how many more tens of millions of fees Morrison and Co will earn out of this whole thing, (after their recent $100m, fee shocker)...sorry folks, I am sure this transaction has nothing whatsoever to do with earnings massive fees, just being a cynical dog, as you were folks...who's want to own vodafail anyway...opss there I go again...bad dog back in your kennel...

[couta1]

Interesting times for IFT holders.

A big transition in the works from 'traditional infrastructure' (power, transport, airports etc) to 'digital infrastructure' (data storage, data distribution, phone data) etc.

Over the past 5 yrs, IFT's SP has pretty much tracked the NZX 50 index. Will this change going forward?

For the time being, news of more capital raising seems to be taking the froth off recent SP rises.

10535 Still way too pricey,take a look at the PE ratio.

[longy]

If they make me the money... I don't mind about the fees etc. 3.4 Bil isn't a small number and I trust the management must have seen something in the deal.

[Beagle]

If they make me the money... I don't mind about the fees etc. 3.4 Bil isn't a small number and I trust the management must have seen something in the deal.

The question is are the fees reasonable and should Infratil be looking at the reasonableness of them.
It doesn't look like the market is impressed with this voda-fail transaction, down 5.4% so far today.

[Leftfield]

Still way too pricey,take a look at the PE ratio.

I agree.... don't hold.

IFT a low risk 'index tracker', but IMHO Morrison & Co take all the cream.

[bull....]

Still way too pricey,take a look at the PE ratio.

bit like a2 pe a , but never mind its coming down every yr

[couta1]

bit like a2 pe a , but never mind its coming down every yr You cant compare them A2 is a mega growth company not a slow snail like IFT a PE of around 20 would be more realistic.

[macduffy]

You cant compare them A2 is a mega growth company not a slow snail like IFT a PE of around 20 would be more realistic.

I've been happy to told this 8 bagger (IFT) since it floated - so no complaints about management fees from me!

:)

[kiora]

wonder if its a done deal for vodaphone nz

this from trustpower

Later this year, Trustpower will introduce both mobile phone and wireless broadband services, further building on itsposition as a leading provider of bundled services

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TPW/334397/299720.pdf

I didn't know this
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/bd7dac62/trustpower-well-positioned-for-volatile-market-renewables-development.html?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+14+ May+2019
"The company, which will this year start offering mobile and fixed-wireless broadband services through a partnership with Spark New Zealand, said its retail gross margin climbed to $156 million from $148 million the year before."

[value_investor]

I'm a bit perplexed at this one, I think the telco's are really at the end of the line and at the 'sunset' as an industry. Not saying they will be obsolete, but the products they sell are becoming more and more homogeneous and its easier for someone to come in tomorrow and just eat your lunch. High CAPEX spend, very low growth opportunities in a already small market.

Unless, they are seeing an opportunity to flip this over in a few years due to it being an under performing business which they are indicating from the presentation, its very risky because another competitor comes in tomorrow and that throws off all your fancy discounted cash flow calcs and enterprise values.

Charlie Munger once said that EBITDA is like saying, earnings before all the important stuff. I'm interested to see whether there is enough there in terms of cash generating to suffice. I'm skeptical but then again, I'm not sure many picked them to turn around Z Energy.

[kiora]

Hmm
" its easier for someone to come in tomorrow and just eat your lunch."
I'm not sure about this.
Someone would need deep pockets & knowledge on building another telco brand
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/80485868/2degrees-reports-33m-loss-says-growth-strategy-working
What has it cost 2 degrees so far to set up + the value of lost return
Goodwill is often worth every penny

[value_investor]

Hmm
" its easier for someone to come in tomorrow and just eat your lunch."
I'm not sure about this.
Someone would need deep pockets & knowledge on building another telco brand
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/80485868/2degrees-reports-33m-loss-says-growth-strategy-working
What has it cost 2 degrees so far to set up + the value of lost return
Goodwill is often worth every penny

Although I agree on the high capital costs. I'm concerned that there isn't any chance to grow in the industry, its a race to the bottom really. Offering more data, minutes and continually lower prices is the way to go to attract new customers, and in such a small market population wise you're not going to magically grow your customer base by thousands. Revenue grew about 1% between FY16 and FY19 according to one of the slides.

As for goodwill, its rough for Vodafone https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12161252
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2019/05/vodafone-fined-350k-for-overcharging-customers.html

I'm a holder of IFT, so I'm attempting to be optimistic. I'm assuming all the upside is in stripping down costs, and sharpening up the product leaving it in better shape than you entered before ultimately exiting for a profit.

[peat]

. I'm concerned that there isn't any chance to grow in the industry, its a race to the bottom

You never know this for sure, there are sometimes ways to create blue water (an unexplored new market.)
Maybe something special using 5G , I have no idea.

Anyway, I agree I think it'll be a challenge for IFT to do a Z with this one. But maybe they like a challenge.

[SilverBack]

Might get ComCom permission ...might have to sell Trustpower ...might have to sell their share of consortium .....lot of mights but they’ll sort it out

Trustpower is small bikky when it comes to telecoms. It is also one step above an amateurish level. I know because I tried it for 2 years recently and could not wait soon enough to get off their broadband. When I did, my line speed jumped up 30% and my connection reliability tripled (at least). If IFT integrate TPW services with Voda then it has to be an improvement. As to current wireless broadband and mobile services with Spark then they cannot be expected to last long but must surely be replaced by Vodafone services. IFT will have calculated all the ins and outs of doing this.

[SilverBack]

Telecomm service providers are definitely in transition. Basic communications are too cut-throat for a company to make it the only line of business. Spark are becoming a content provider while retaining its mobile, backbone network and international fibre services. Voda tried and failed to join with SkyTV. IFT through TPW is selling bundled power/telecomms/gas connections and is now building out the telecomms with Voda. I would not be surprised by a new attempt in due course by Voda/IFT/Brookfield to takeover SKT (never really was a merger) since SPK has now developed very competitive services over broadband while SKT keeps on losing its market.

[silverblizzard888]

Before IFT made Z what it is today, I'm sure many would have wondered what could a company do with a fuel retailer? Its a basic good and service, but if theres one thing IFT is good at its the customer service and experience. They know how to build premium services that people will pay for, while at the same time finding great efficiencies, this is where the profits are. As it stands Vodafone have a fragmented system where customer get frustrated dealing with them, there brand is well known but doesn't have a premium branding feel that Spark and 2 Degrees have built, but they are quite good on the sales end hence why they maintain their revenue levels given the current competition.

What IFT has to do is refresh the brand, create a clear but flexible system and find more added services. Given they have access to Trust power there is a lot of combinations. Vodafone could introduce power to all customer plans, offer cloud storage, sell electronic products, security systems and many others. What you have to recognize is they have underutilized selling power to a large customer base that already trust their offerings, but theres too much anchoring in everyones minds to think about this company is solely a telecommunications company rather than a wider and more general technology service company. Big reason Telecom had to rebrand to Spark, but I think here they will keep the Vodafone brand.

[bull....]

INFRATIL WANTS VODAFONE FREE TO CHASE DOMESTIC STRATEGY
the key points in the article

Bogoievski said Infratil entered the deal with a very long-term view

Infratil wants to free Vodafone's management team from the constraints placed on them by the global group

(how they will get some earnings growth)

Bogoievski said he thought regulators, policymakers and Vodafone's customers understood the need for the need to cooperate and share new technology, rather than needlessly duplicate investment.

( wonder if they mean they want to share cost of 5g build with spark etc)

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/41ac9fe1/infratil-wants-vodafone-free-to-chase-domestic-strategy.html

[longy]

Before IFT made Z what it is today, I'm sure many would have wondered what could a company do with a fuel retailer? Its a basic good and service, but if theres one thing IFT is good at its the customer service and experience. They know how to build premium services that people will pay for, while at the same time finding great efficiencies, this is where the profits are. As it stands Vodafone have a fragmented system where customer get frustrated dealing with them, there brand is well known but doesn't have a premium branding feel that Spark and 2 Degrees have built, but they are quite good on the sales end hence why they maintain their revenue levels given the current competition.

What IFT has to do is refresh the brand, create a clear but flexible system and find more added services. Given they have access to Trust power there is a lot of combinations. Vodafone could introduce power to all customer plans, offer cloud storage, sell electronic products, security systems and many others. What you have to recognize is they have underutilized selling power to a large customer base that already trust their offerings, but theres too much anchoring in everyones minds to think about this company is solely a telecommunications company rather than a wider and more general technology service company. Big reason Telecom had to rebrand to Spark, but I think here they will keep the Vodafone brand.

Well said. I am excited to see what will comes out of this business.

[kiora]

I agree with sb888. Telecommunications isn't a staid sunlight industry.
They're looking for growth in the high single digits and increase in profit in mid teens.
It looks very good for infratil and a game changer for growth

[sb9]

FNZC lowers their tp to $4.23 as per below link.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/3f0b6271/fnzc-trims-infratil-s-target-price-on-3-4b-vodafone-deal.html

[Beagle]

Heaps more fees for Morrison and Co...a casual observer might be forgiven for being more than a little cynical after their recent $100m fee plunder and wonder why that isn't more than enough already. I think they get the cream and shareholders are left with skim milk.

[Ggcc]

Heaps more fees for Morrison and Co...a casual observer might be forgiven for being more than a little cynical after their recent $100m fee plunder and wonder why that isn't more than enough already. I think they get the cream and shareholders are left with skim milk.
Beagle look any the share price over the years...........? hardly not skim milk. I am up over 40% in 4 years excluding dividends and am happy to be holding this wonderful share. I do however think if you are investing into this now you might be purchasing at the wrong time if you want quick gains.

[BeeBop]

Heaps more fees for Morrison and Co...a casual observer might be forgiven for being more than a little cynical after their recent $100m fee plunder and wonder why that isn't more than enough already. I think they get the cream and shareholders are left with skim milk.

Skim milk is full of protein for body building, the fat will just sit around keeping you warm until it is used up!

[Baa_Baa]

I reckon IFT could boost Vodafone into the #1 in all telco categories, though it's not something I'd speculate on at this point in time but as the process evolves and gets closer to a ComCom decision, it might pay to have some dry powder ready, or a finger on the sell trigger. Either way I'll let the process unfold before picking sides. Too many moving parts to take a position at this stage.

[winner69]

I reckon IFT could boost Vodafone into the #1 in all telco categories, though it's not something I'd speculate on at this point in time but as the process evolves and gets closer to a ComCom decision, it might pay to have some dry powder ready, or a finger on the sell trigger. Either way I'll let the process unfold before picking sides. Too many moving parts to take a position at this stage.

Jeez if Sparks sports thing us a dude and Vodafone go to #1 I don’t think I’d want Spark shares.

[Baa_Baa]

Jeez if Sparks sports thing us a dude and Vodafone go to #1 I don’t think I’d want Spark shares.

Me either, but I reckon Voda under IFT would revert to getting the basic telco stuff right first, and quickly, then look at value added. [disc: a happy Voda customer for a long time and have no complaints]. Plenty of room to improve though, might even cost a few bob to rationalise the disparate Voda systems that they've acquired and cobbled together.

All good though, a solid base to develop and grow. After that it's content, or maybe not, Spark could come a gutser with entering the content market if they fail to delivery the RWC perfectly, that'd spook investors. There's so many moving parts here, but a sea change in ownership and business strategies, assuming ability to execute, may signal a shift for investors.

Finally the telco sector is getting interesting again and we'll be able to put a bob each way on the big incumbents.

[winner69]

About 70 cents for every share so something like a 1 for 7 at 4 bucks

Got the 4 bucks right

But seem to be allowing $100m for new investors if I read it right

[kiora]

Next year EBITDAF earnings looks like 15 cents per share higher than this year taking into account new shares issued with cash issue.Not too shabby.

[Ggcc]

Vodafone issues today in Hawke’s bay I have been told. Anyone else having issues?

[bull....]

Next year EBITDAF earnings looks like 15 cents per share higher than this year taking into account new shares issued with cash issue.Not too shabby.

lovely cash flow coming

[kiora]

lovely cash flow coming

Agreed.Its a whale of a deal.Just need to get the cheque book out to take up my entitlement.Cum dividend as well

[Hectorplains]

Me either, but I reckon Voda under IFT would revert to getting the basic telco stuff right first, and quickly, then look at value added. [disc: a happy Voda customer for a long time and have no complaints]. Plenty of room to improve though, might even cost a few bob to rationalise the disparate Voda systems that they've acquired and cobbled together.

All good though, a solid base to develop and grow. After that it's content, or maybe not, Spark could come a gutser with entering the content market if they fail to delivery the RWC perfectly, that'd spook investors. There's so many moving parts here, but a sea change in ownership and business strategies, assuming ability to execute, may signal a shift for investors.

Finally the telco sector is getting interesting again and we'll be able to put a bob each way on the big incumbents.

Agreed, it's worth noting that customer satisfaction is an ongoing issue with Vodafone NZ. They've taken out the wooden spoon three years running in Consumer NZ’s satisfaction survey (https://www.consumer.org.nz/articles/telco-providers), telco customers rated Vodafone last for both mobile and broadband services(https://www.consumer.org.nz/articles/telco-providers.) Plenty of scope for Vodafone to do the basics better.

[kiora]

Vodafone purchase ticks many boxes.A great leg up for IFT IMHO

"Integrated communication companies are a mix of lower-risk and growth businesses, he said. When managed well and with leading market positions they can deliver quite predictable cash flow.
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1905/S00545/update-infratil-kicks-off-400m-equity-raising.htm?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+20+M ay+2019

[BlackPeter]

Annual report out.

https://infratil.com/assets/imported/nzx//Infratil-2019-Annual-Report-300024.pdf

Lots of emphasis on wealth creation over the last 25 years. I guess finishing this period with an annual loss due to the exorbitant management fees is a slightly unfortunate dark spot on the vest. Lets see what punters do with that ...

[artemis]

$4 / share in the capital raise is looking like a plan.

[Beagle]

Annual report out.

https://infratil.com/assets/imported/nzx//Infratil-2019-Annual-Report-300024.pdf

Lots of emphasis on wealth creation over the last 25 years. I guess finishing this period with an annual loss due to the exorbitant management fees is a slightly unfortunate dark spot on the vest. Lets see what punters do with that ...

A significant amount of "corporate speak" justifying the more that $125m paid to Morrison which is grossly egregious considering most of it is calculated on theoretical and unrealized revaluation gains...what a farce.

[bull....]

A significant amount of "corporate speak" justifying the more that $125m paid to Morrison which is grossly egregious considering most of it is calculated on theoretical and unrealized revaluation gains...what a farce.

im not complaining if the share keeps out performing sum others or is that most others lol

[Ggcc]

Any ideas why Trustpower SP is sprinting up in value over the last few days.....?

[bull....]

Any ideas why Trustpower SP is sprinting up in value over the last few days.....?

ift say they are not selling it

[bull....]

Morrison looms large in $500m-plus Macarthur Wind Farm auction
https://www.afr.com/business/energy/morrison-looms-large-in-500m-plus-macarthur-wind-farm-auction-20190602-p51tm9

wonder if IFT OR TLT will also be involved in this?

[bull....]

AGL launches $3b bid for telecommunications company Vocushttps://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-11/agl-launches-3b-dollar-bid-for-telecommunications-company-vocus/11198128?section=business


must be the future a , power companies and telcos. ift way ahead of the game

[BlackPeter]

AGL launches $3b bid for telecommunications company Vocushttps://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-11/agl-launches-3b-dollar-bid-for-telecommunications-company-vocus/11198128?section=business


must be the future a , power companies and telcos. ift way ahead of the game

I guess there are clearly lots of synergies with both being utilities and having similar problems. Same customers, same databases, same geographical challenges ... Makes as well sense to dig a trench only once and put in fibre and power cables at the same time.

Question is - will the customer or the shareholder benefit from these synergies? Hopefully both ...

[bull....]

I guess there are clearly lots of synergies with both being utilities and having similar problems. Same customers, same databases, same geographical challenges ... Makes as well sense to dig a trench only once and put in fibre and power cables at the same time.

Question is - will the customer or the shareholder benefit from these synergies? Hopefully both ...

electricity is a growth industry

[BlackPeter]

electricity is a growth industry

It may ... or it may not.

I think at this stage the jury is still out whether the increase of electrical vehicles (more electrical power required) will be larger than the impact of decentralised generation (less power purchased from gentailers) and the potential loss of some quite unsustainable industries (aluminium smelting) ...

[bull....]

It may ... or it may not.

I think at this stage the jury is still out whether the increase of electrical vehicles (more electrical power required) will be larger than the impact of decentralised generation (less power purchased from gentailers) and the potential loss of some quite unsustainable industries (aluminium smelting) ...

fair points but until solar for retail peoples becomes worth it wont happen , smelter always a risk of closing but if they did would just mean no new power stations needed which would be good for power company divs. the slack would probably be taken up by immigration growth over time

[kiora]

IFT were predicting increase of compounding 2-4?%/year due to economic growth.It has been flattish for last few years but does this mean there will be pent up demand coming on?
It is going to be an essential service either way.
https://www.transpower.co.nz/system-operator/security-supply/electricity-demand

[BlackPeter]

fair points but until solar for retail peoples becomes worth it wont happen , smelter always a risk of closing but if they did would just mean no new power stations needed which would be good for power company divs. the slack would probably be taken up by immigration growth over time

Well, yes - at the moment neither electrical vehicles nor decentralised power supplies (solar or other alternatives) are really economical. However - I'd expect that both will have their break even at the same time, because they are both dependent on cheap and safe high capacity battery storage ...

And immigration growth? Labour governments in the past have been great in turning net immigration negative. They are driving more people away than they attract. I have no reason to doubt that they will do this this time as well.

[ratkin]

When are the new shares added? Applied online but not had any confirmation yet, other than the initial email response

[ratkin]

It may ... or it may not.

I think at this stage the jury is still out whether the increase of electrical vehicles (more electrical power required) will be larger than the impact of decentralised generation (less power purchased from gentailers) and the potential loss of some quite unsustainable industries (aluminium smelting) ...

Technology changing rapidly, it could well be hydrogen powered cars that eventually emerge victorious

[freddagg]

It may ... or it may not.

I think at this stage the jury is still out whether the increase of electrical vehicles (more electrical power required) will be larger than the impact of decentralised generation (less power purchased from gentailers) and the potential loss of some quite unsustainable industries (aluminium smelting) ...


Blackpeter, are you saying aluminium production is an unsustainable industry or just that the nz smelter is not sustainable

[bull....]

blackpeter probably just annoyed never brought any , by the continued bearish commentary on the stock

[mshierlaw]

When are the new shares added? Applied online but not had any confirmation yet, other than the initial email response

Bookbuild being completed tonight, I assume we get our new shares tomorrow.

[Kelvin]

Bookbuild being completed tonight, I assume we get our new shares tomorrow.

18 June is the allotment date

[rainey]

Do we get an entitlement for the ones not taken up

[macduffy]

Do we get an entitlement for the ones not taken up

No, they are sold via a bookbuild - amongst the instos, I presume. Net proceeds, and there should be something, to go to those who didn't take up their entitlements.

[kiora]

Do we get an entitlement for the ones not taken up

Maybe able to get through your share broker ?

[BlackPeter]

Blackpeter, are you saying aluminium production is an unsustainable industry or just that the nz smelter is not sustainable

I was referring to the aluminium smelter in NZ. Does not make a lot of economical or environmental sense to transport aluminium ore over long distances (I think from Australia) to smelt them in NZ with taxpayer subsidised electricity and ship the product subsequently overseas - doesn't it?

[BlackPeter]

blackpeter probably just annoyed never brought any , by the continued bearish commentary on the stock

You are wrong on both accounts - but that's not unusual :p

[winner69]

Rumour has it RetireAustralia getting closer to being hocked off.

[kiora]

Rumour has it RetireAustralia getting closer to being hocked off.

I wouldn't be surprised
Well done IFT. Very quick & clean capital raise.Trading halt lifted promptly so there must have been plenty of interest.
Lets see what the road show next month has to say.
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/ift.nzx-336002/

[bull....]

You are wrong on both accounts - but that's not unusual :p

lol i am surprised

[Ggcc]

Quickly someone. They are running out of sellers haha. Geez the shares have really risen quickly.

[bull....]

Quickly someone. They are running out of sellers haha. Geez the shares have really risen quickly.

people rushing to get the div. $4 rights seems so far away now lol

[Ggcc]

people rushing to get the div. $4 rights seems so far away now lol
Whatever the reason so far I will not sell ever

[BlackPeter]

Whatever the reason so far I will not sell ever

this might be a not so good strategy ... Infratil in the past had its ups and downs, and there is no reason why this should change in the future ...

[Ggcc]

this might be a not so good strategy ... Infratil in the past had its ups and downs, and there is no reason why this should change in the future ...

“ So far” unless the story changes. Yes they have made some mistakes. All in all though so far they learnt from those mistakes “so far” and have done really well. I would not invest at these prices myself unless for the longterm

[bull....]

on fire again today along with the gentailers. actually ift fits the theme well

[bigbruce]

PE 134 how sustainable these gains?

[bull....]

PE 134 how sustainable these gains?

if rates keep going lower and stay lower for long time the pe is irrelevant in my opinion your buying the div income

[percy]

if rates keep going lower and stay lower for long time the pe is irrelevant in my opinion your buying the div income

It is very noticeable with my shares brought for dividends, some time ago ,that they are enjoying huge share price increases.

[dreamcatcher]

if rates keep going lower and stay lower for long time the pe is irrelevant in my opinion your buying the div income

Not to mention Vodafone purchase ............

[bull....]

Not to mention Vodafone purchase ............

exactly , theres a lot happening in the telco space as far as positioning for the future

[longy]

It has gone EX div today I am wondering if div includes those shares from the placement?

[Kelvin]

It has gone EX div today I am wondering if div includes those shares from the placement?

Yes, given those shares were issued on the 18th

[mikeybycrikey]

My partner has had a few interactions with Vodafone lately about sorting out broadband at a new house. They were so incompetent, and she is pretty patient. If IFT can sort out Vodafone's customer service problems then maybe this takeover will all be worthwhile, for Voda, for shareholders and for the NZ public.

[Ggcc]

My partner has had a few interactions with Vodafone lately about sorting out broadband at a new house. They were so incompetent, and she is pretty patient. If IFT can sort out Vodafone's customer service problems then maybe this takeover will all be worthwhile, for Voda, for shareholders and for the NZ public.

I find that most of the companies I deal with have call centres from overseas, which I struggle to understand. I have not dealt with Vodafone, so cannot comment, but Spark call centre person was utterly difficult to understand, I think the call centre was in Malaysia. It may cost more to hire kiwis, but imagine a call centre that understood kiwis.........?

[freddagg]

I find that most of the companies I deal with have call centres from overseas, which I struggle to understand. I have not dealt with Vodafone, so cannot comment, but Spark call centre person was utterly difficult to understand, I think the call centre was in Malaysia. It may cost more to hire kiwis, but imagine a call centre that understood kiwis.........?

Trustpower, you can even have a yarn about the weather.

[Joshuatree]

"Brookfield’s Australian targets this year include Healthscope, the country’s second largest health operator, which it acquired in a $4.35 billion deal.
It is set to sell its $1 billion half share in Genesee and Wyoming Australia to joint-venture partner Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets and has also struck a deal with
Infratil to buy Vodafone New Zealand for $3.2 billion."

[bull....]

Infratil cleared to buy Vodafone NZ
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12248537

cool , ill dwell on the future of nz telcos while im out fishing today

[Ggcc]

So a nice meeting in Napier tonight.
Interesting to hear that Tim believes the company could be worth north of $5.50 if they put all of Infratil's assets on the market and paid off debts. So that was some assurance. Otherwise it was business as usual and great things on the horizon.

IFT believe that Vodafone and Spark will unite to put 5G together for NZ otherwise it would be very expensive. What was quite interesting was there comparison of 4G and 5G. The slide was sort of showing us the size of the Earth as 4G and the size of the Sun was 5G in limitations. When 5G happens expect we could expect big things, Tim indicated. Otherwise they mentioned they were most likely not going to change the basic ways how Vodafone works (if they end up owning it), but how they will offer existing customers other add ons. The indication I had was that IFT will leave more money into it rather than strip it purely for dividends.

Canberra Data Centre seems to be ticking along quite nicely with contracts already in for leasing, so their major problem was constructing them, as the leases were already signed.

The Retire Australia I was not too sure about as Tim mentioned they (all Australian retirement sectors) had some bad rap in the media and house prices were lower which in turn affected their return. But he remained positive for the future.

Longrun was ticking along nicely with future programs in place which will be done when it suits them.

The assets which IFT have sold will be used to inject into Vodafone as the company needs investment. IFT are very happy with the Vodafone management.

They spoke about a few other things, but the brain can only retain so much information.

[kiora]

Rumour has it RetireAustralia getting closer to being hocked off.

I'm not sure about this now.More likely,it has just gone through a consolidation period.Now looking to turn it around & building 300 units/year & adding care facilities.Margins didn't seem that great though.Vacancies had increased to 10% but hopefully starting to see light at the end of the tunnel.

[longy]

So a nice meeting in Napier tonight.
Interesting to hear that Tim believes the company could be worth north of $5.50 if they put all of Infratil's assets on the market and paid of debts. So that was some assurance. Otherwise it was business as usual and great things for the horizon.

IFT believe that Vodafone and Spark will unite to put 5G together for NZ otherwise it would be very expensive. What was quite interesting was there comparison of 4G and 5G. The slide was sort of showing us the size of the Earth as 4G and the size of the Sun was 5G in limitations. When 5G happens expect we could expect big things, Tim indicated. Otherwise they mentioned they were most likely not going to change the basic ways how Vodafone works (if they end up owning it), but how they will offer existing customers other add ons. The indication I had was that IFT will leave more money into it rather than strip it purely for dividends.

Canberra Data Centre seems to be ticking along quite nicely with contracts already in for leasing, so their major problem was constructing them, as the leases were already signed.

The Retire Australia I was not too sure about as Tim mentioned they (all Australian retirement sectors) had some bad rap in the media and house prices were lower which in turn affected their return. But he remained positive for the future.

Longrun was ticking along nicely with future programs in place which will be done when it suits them.

The assets which IFT have sold will be used to inject into Vodafone as the company needs investment. IFT are very happy with the Vodafone management.

They spoke about a few other things, but the brain can only retain so much information.

Nice work. Thanks very much.

[bull....]

So a nice meeting in Napier tonight.
Interesting to hear that Tim believes the company could be worth north of $5.50 if they put all of Infratil's assets on the market and paid of debts. So that was some assurance. Otherwise it was business as usual and great things for the horizon.

IFT believe that Vodafone and Spark will unite to put 5G together for NZ otherwise it would be very expensive. What was quite interesting was there comparison of 4G and 5G. The slide was sort of showing us the size of the Earth as 4G and the size of the Sun was 5G in limitations. When 5G happens expect we could expect big things, Tim indicated. Otherwise they mentioned they were most likely not going to change the basic ways how Vodafone works (if they end up owning it), but how they will offer existing customers other add ons. The indication I had was that IFT will leave more money into it rather than strip it purely for dividends.

Canberra Data Centre seems to be ticking along quite nicely with contracts already in for leasing, so their major problem was constructing them, as the leases were already signed.

The Retire Australia I was not too sure about as Tim mentioned they (all Australian retirement sectors) had some bad rap in the media and house prices were lower which in turn affected their return. But he remained positive for the future.

Longrun was ticking along nicely with future programs in place which will be done when it suits them.

The assets which IFT have sold will be used to inject into Vodafone as the company needs investment. IFT are very happy with the Vodafone management.

They spoke about a few other things, but the brain can only retain so much information.

thx looks like vodaph wont be a Z thing but a core position in there portfolio.

[Ggcc]

thx looks like vodaph wont be a Z thing but a core position in there portfolio.
They only want to have roughly 25% of their portfolio in growth. So you are correct about Vodafone.

[kiora]

In case you have missed it
Valuation of parts $5.70/share
Buy back up to 20,000,000 shares up to $5
Seems to make sense

[bull....]

In case you have missed it
Valuation of parts $5.70/share
Buy back up to 20,000,000 shares up to $5
Seems to make sense

nice and the PE of 134 looks reasonable and will lower over time

[kiora]

Thanks JT for your posting
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpW9JcWxKq0

Vodafone nicely placed to be the conduit :cool:

[Pmdv77]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/338751

I hope Morrison and Co rightfully take a bath on their bonuses after booking this loss...

[Ggcc]

I can smell $5 per share approaching. I am holding, but would not be buying at these levels.

[horus1]

The trouble is everything is so high and the savings accont is paying 0.1%. Glad I have invested for so long

[longy]

The trouble is everything is so high and the savings accont is paying 0.1%. Glad I have invested for so long

A tricky case for the baby boomers who have lots of cash in saving at the moment eh. But then again they probably don't have to worry the ups and downs of Mr market.

[mshierlaw]

I can smell $5 per share approaching. I am holding, but would not be buying at these levels.

That rights offer when they bought Vodafone was great, wish we were offered more.

[Well Endowed]

I know behind a paywall, but a fairly favourable outlook on how things are progressing with the recent vodafone acquisition.

- Appointment of Jason Paris (who has actually commented on the article to a few posters),
- Upgrade of customer service in X-Squad ($10m investment),
- Teaming up with Kogan to launch a low cost Skinny competitor
- Partnering with Umbrellar in the IT services space
- Further advancing 5G plans

https://www.nbr.co.nz/analysis/suddenly-it-s-vodafone-nz-busting-all-moves

I get the feeling that in a couple years this is going to look like a very good acquisition indeed.


Happily Holding, as we near $5 again.

[Ggcc]

I know behind a paywall, but a fairly favourable outlook on how things are progressing with the recent vodafone acquisition.

- Appointment of Jason Paris (who has actually commented on the article to a few posters),
- Upgrade of customer service in X-Squad ($10m investment),
- Teaming up with Kogan to launch a low cost Skinny competitor
- Partnering with Umbrellar in the IT services space
- Further advancing 5G plans

https://www.nbr.co.nz/analysis/suddenly-it-s-vodafone-nz-busting-all-moves

I get the feeling that in a couple years this is going to look like a very good acquisition indeed.


Happily Holding, as we near $5 again.
Well over $5 now and still rising.......... Will it stop and where do people see fair value?? My similar stance with the Port of Napier is I would not be adding to my holding at these levels.

[kiora]

In case you have missed it
Valuation of parts $5.70/share
Buy back up to 20,000,000 shares up to $5
Seems to make sense

Getting there slowly but surely?

[bull....]

yes great stock , next stop 5? be good if it happens

looking good , the best thing about ift is that it has both defensive positions and growth positions

[bull....]

ticking all the right boxes around forward growth :t_up:

[kiora]

Bottom drawer.
Dividend reinvestment plan reintroduced

[kiora]

Well some didn't like the result.A good old tree shake going on.
I'm looking forward to results within the next 2 years, when the returns from all the expansion investment going on comes through.
$1.4 billion returning 15%/annum ???

[bull....]

Well some didn't like the result.A good old tree shake going on.
I'm looking forward to results within the next 2 years, when the returns from all the expansion investment going on comes through.
$1.4 billion returning 15%/annum ???

the fall in price was due more to the rbnz rate decision than the result. all rate sensitive stocks got a bit of a downdraft yesterday after the rate decision

[kiora]

Thanks Bull. I get it :cool:

[kiora]

Getting closer to where it deserves to be

[kiora]

As well as its compounding return it has provided since listing in 1994 (17.5% in April 2019 when SP $4.40) IFT major advantage is that it is unlikely to be a takeover target,I hope.Otherwise I will have a huge problem eek. Doesn't bare to think about.

[Well Endowed]

fees payable accruing, I guess its a good problem to have. More paper gains.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/346757

[Bjauck]

fees payable accruing, I guess its a good problem to have. More paper gains.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/346757

The valuation of CDC is up (using approx mid-points) by approx $550m; international incentive fee is up by $85m. The market likes the sound of that - IFT share price currently up by about 3.5% (NZX down 0.5%)

[ratkin]

The valuation of CDC is up (using approx mid-points) by approx $550m; international incentive fee is up by $85m. The market likes the sound of that - IFT share price currently up by about 3.5% (NZX down 0.5%)

IFT the gift that keeps on giving, lets just hope nothing burns down in AUS. That a massive percentage increase in the worth of those data centres.
Wonder when we will start to hear good things in regard to the vodaphone purchase

[whatsup]

Is the CDC a listed company or what is its structure ?

[kiora]

As well as its compounding return it has provided since listing in 1994 (17.5% in April 2019 when SP $4.40) IFT major advantage is that it is unlikely to be a takeover target,I hope.Otherwise I will have a huge problem eek. Doesn't bare to think about.

In case you still haven't got it
https://www.moneyhub.co.nz/compound-interest-calculator.html

10000
Interest Rate (%):
17.5
Number of Years:
26
Compounding Times Per Year :

The total amount (original investment + interest) is $662,192.92
The interest earned is $652,192.92

[dreamcatcher]

In case you still haven't got it
https://www.moneyhub.co.nz/compound-interest-calculator.html

10000
Interest Rate (%):
17.5
Number of Years:
26
Compounding Times Per Year :

The total amount (original investment + interest) is $662,192.92
The interest earned is $652,192.92

Been an excellent performer for many years and continue to hold.................

[turnip]

Is the CDC a listed company or what is its structure ?

CDC is not listed, Infratil and the Commonwealth Superannuation Corporation own 48% each, the remaining 4% is owned by management.

[whatsup]

CDC is not listed, Infratil and the Commonwealth Superannuation Corporation own 48% each, the remaining 4% is owned by management.

thought that would be the case but worth coat tailing if possible, thank you.

[Rowdy Flat]

Is the CDC a listed company or what is its structure ?

Infratil 48%, Commonwealth Superannuation Corporation 48% and CDC’s executive 4%. ***Sorry, missed that this had already been responded to. Note to self...Must refresh browser.

[turnip]

thought that would be the case but worth coat tailing if possible, thank you.

Yep I would add CDC to my portfolio if it was listed. I'm not unhappy with any of Infratil's current investments, but if I had the choice I would hold more of CDC and Longroad Energy, less of Vodafone and Trustpower.

[Rowdy Flat]

Yep I would add CDC to my portfolio if it was listed. I'm not unhappy with any of Infratil's current investments, but if I had the choice I would hold more of CDC and Longroad Energy, less of Vodafone and Trustpower.

Good news on the Vodafone front: In the latest TelcoWatch market share report Vodafone climbed 1% to 36% market share over the final quarter of 2019. Main rival Spark fell 3% to 35%. 2degrees held at 23%.

In the most important percentage, that of customers on contract - (as they spend about 4x per month more than those on pre-pay.) Vodafone climbed from 41.7% to 44.5% on contract for the year.

[bull....]

Good news on the Vodafone front: In the latest TelcoWatch market share report Vodafone climbed 1% to 36% market share over the final quarter of 2019. Main rival Spark fell 3% to 35%. 2degrees held at 23%.

In the most important percentage, that of customers on contract - (as they spend about 4x per month more than those on pre-pay.) Vodafone climbed from 41.7% to 44.5% on contract for the year.

spark wont be happy losing top spot , paris ceo of vodaphone has insider knowledge of spark so it probably helping vodaphone compete better. ift share price on new highs so gotta be good

[macduffy]

Speaking as a shareholder of IFT and a customer of Vodafone, Spark and 2Degrees must be making a hash of their businesses!

;)

[ScrappyO]

Have Spark really lost top spot? Don't they own skinny Mobile which has 8% share of the market.

[Rowdy Flat]

Have Spark really lost top spot? Don't they own skinny Mobile which has 8% share of the market.

Skinny is a sub brand of Spark. They have a 6% share of the market but margins are small at the budget end.

[kiora]

5 G networks in USA
https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/brett-feldman

[Rowdy Flat]

5 G networks in USA
https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/brett-feldman

https://billbennett.co.nz/huawei-uk-5g.

Bennett illustrates just how big the jump is, that Vodafone has got over Spark in the 5G market.

He had previously nominated Vodafone's resurgence as one of the seven NZ tech highlights for 2019.

https://billbennett.co.nz/tech-moments-2019. In the piece titled; "The Vodafone giant awakes."

"It’s as if Vodafone has had a vitamin injection. Now there is an energy to the business that wasn’t there before. It helps that Paris recruited fresh talent to senior positions, but it goes beyond that. It is as if the company has awoken from a slumber."

[kiora]

Thanks RF.Interesting

[bull....]

if you want to follow mobile market share report go here

https://www.datamine.com/telcowatch?utm_source=scoop&utm_medium=referral