PDA

View Full Version : TRUST POWER



Pages : [1] 2

duncan macgregor
03-11-2004, 03:31 PM
I intended to buy into this when i moved from PWC The fundamentals are great and a decent divi due on the 17th dec. I scored a 12 pc bet on nog and bought into this last friday at $4-84. I could not believe my luck after a great report and a divi due the price remained static. SUMONE UP THER LUVS ME. The price is sky rocketing WHOOPEE!. This is a long term buy for me i expect to still hold this in a couple of years. It is great when you can woo lady luck with a bit of common sense [ unlike most of the other ladies in macdunks life time he wooed them with a bit of nonsense].
Hope you guys dont mind old macdunk kicking his heels up backing a winner. MACDUNK

kura
03-11-2004, 05:22 PM
I put in a sell order at 5.15 today, (after buying in several years back, think arround $6, pre share split ) so talking of a significant profit myself, Why did I sell ? Purely cos I had plenty of TPW exposure from my IFT holding,
Cheers
PS: Had expected reduced/stable result from TPW as they revalued their assets last year or so (massively) and the higher resultant depreciation charge would have hurt them, so for TPW to post such a good result is really great stuff.

fish
03-11-2004, 05:58 PM
Also sold 3000 today at $5.15 .Kura im pretty sure i bought these for only $3 or thereabouts soon after they listed so with the share split have tripled in value .
Only small vols are traded as tightly held stock
Will keep on selling if the price is right-but i dont think there are many buyers
Better value elsewhere in my opinion

ananda77
04-11-2004, 01:23 PM
According to Direct Broking, PE Tpw: 11.902. Would make this electricity generator the cheapest around!!!

Am I forgetting something??

This electricity company fits in perfectly into my money-spinning chain theory within the energy sector, being exposed to:

1. an explorer/producer (in the near future) like Nog (hold on/off)
2. a generator like Tpw (holder)
3. a distributor like Vector via the bonds (holder)

duncan macgregor
04-11-2004, 02:25 PM
ANNANDA 77, I will be buying more regardless. I consider this market sector is on the up and up regardless of the company. Trust power are positioned to trend up has a good cover well run and a good long term bet. The price of power will increase dramatically making the wind farms more than just economically viable. My opinion is this is the best company for share holders to buy into. Look out HQP and hello TPW then i might be wrong but dont think so. I am coming back for more . MACDUNK

ananda77
04-11-2004, 06:48 PM
duncan macgregor:

I read in one of Trustpower's bonds-prospectus that every cent increase in power-prices increases Trustpower's generating assets by a staggering 20m...and I totally agree with you that power-prices will go up substantially.

In this scenario Trustpower is supremely positioned to benefit as their generating capacity is totally independent from primary energy price-fluctuations.

Now here comes the part where it gets tricky for me. I basically understand (hopefully anyway) that as the value of assets increase so does the depreciation and under normal circumstances this would reduce earnings???; but at the same time, since their costs of production does not increase isn't the increased asset depreciation balanced by higher earnings???

I think this is why we saw such a good half-year result despite the last round of asset adjustments.

Any enlightening comments in this regard (in plain English please) very welcome.

duncan macgregor
05-11-2004, 07:36 AM
ANNANDA 77, You are starting to get into a tricky area, where a lot of facts and figures can be manipulated to suit the purpose of the moment. Who knows the real price of anything up to the point of sale. The asset increases along with the cost of production, take into account increased wages expences etc etc. I prefer to look at the bottom line and how it was made up, and compare to the previous year. Then i look at a similar company in the same field if i can find one and compare. The only question in my mind is how fast will this company trend up. My bottom line is 20pc capital gain or better plus divi. Macdunk

ananda77
05-11-2004, 08:40 AM
<center>only 14.7% to go since bought last week</center>

Duncan, although I ran my own business for a number of years, accounting always bored me to death and I left it up to my accountant to sort things out.

Hasn't changed a bit...better stay away from the tricky areas.

Oil-prices taking a breather before going higher short- to medium-term.

Steve
05-11-2004, 09:28 AM
I signed up with Trustpower when they arrived to Dunedin as they had to be better than Contact at that time.

No complaints from me, although I don't get those FLY BUYS...

rmbbrave
05-11-2004, 01:23 PM
Hey Duncan,

Trustpower doesn't seem like your sort of company. It doesn't seem to have a lot of pending good news, (other than steady profits over a long time).

Are you sure this is not another Psychological Ploy like your "I got it wrong thread"?

Are you going to anounce in a few days that you really think the SP has peaked and that the only way you could convince us all of that was to say that you were buying and then inform everyone that followed your lead that they were a pack of suckers?

duncan macgregor
05-11-2004, 02:16 PM
RMBBRAVE, I used to piss my apprentice boy off when he asked the question my answer was all will be revealed at a later date my man. He used to get halfway through the question realise what he was saying and cut his tongue off. Ask yourself the question what happened to the share price and who told you then think it out. I only rave on about shares i hold . macdunk

rmbbrave
05-11-2004, 02:27 PM
Wow Duncan!

That's a pretty cryptic answer especially the first sentence. Too cryptic for me.

I'm afraid I have no idea who your apprentice is or what "the question" is.

I just hope "the answer" to "the question" is not 42.

duncan macgregor
05-11-2004, 07:08 PM
RMBBRAVE, Cryptic or not if you bought nog and sold when i did then bought TPW when i did and hold like i am and tell everyone about it at the time and be so far in front then who cares. It takes a bit of guts to predict try it sometime. Wait until i get one wrong then watch the little people have a go .CHEERS MACDUNK

fish
05-11-2004, 07:14 PM
WRONG macdunck my "friend"
I buy nog when u sell
I buy contact when u buy trustpower-i love it when u buy trustpower as i have plenty to sell
Following your advice is playing into your hands and i have no doubt it is better to keep an independent mind
i love your posts tho

duncan macgregor
05-11-2004, 07:41 PM
That is what makes a market my fishy friend you buy i sell and visa versa. macdunk

ananda77
10-11-2004, 09:52 AM
Tpw: Good support building now at $4.20. Hardly any sellers.

Keep up the tight selling-discipline.

duncan macgregor: Nog sideways...probably for a few weeks.

!Keep an eye on the Mangatoa develpment!

duncan macgregor
10-11-2004, 12:46 PM
ANANDA77, The price will go up for another month before the divi gets paid. This will be a good share come the bad times, whenever that happens. I will join the boys and girls with nog for a bit of thrill, and drill,when they get that news machine going again. I always think a good well run small company,has better prospects than a large company in the same field. MACDUNK

ananda77
10-11-2004, 02:32 PM
duncan macgregor:

The price will go up for another month before the divi gets paid. This will be a good share come the bad times, whenever that happen.

Agree, this has been the established trading pattern for quiiiite some time...and after the dividend pay-out, another buying opportunity presents itself.

As a defensive stock well, the dividend yield isn't that great, but otherwise the lights won't go out completely holding a share like Trustpower. As a matter of fact, during an economic slow-down caused by high primary energy prices amongst other factors, this company would do really well.

Currently researching exploration activities here in New Zealand. Certainly some buzz can be heard. So far however, Mangatoa with proven gas discovered during the Te Ranga exploration (1986) would favor NOG as a share to watch like a hawk in terms of buy-price and potential.

Dazza
10-11-2004, 06:26 PM
My old man got some free shares of TWR back in about 9 years ago, just a little as we were customers.

Since then, the company itself has had a buy back... maybe twice too?
not much left in the public pool these days anyways, Ive always questioned as to why my old man didn't sell it back then... i guess power is the way to go people.

*Questions why one would even sell it? since, when and if demand is needed for this company... u can bet you that it will out do supply, as not many public shares are left due to mop up few years back*

duncan macgregor
17-11-2004, 02:06 PM
TRUST POWER, never gets a mention and is on a nice uptrend. MR MARKET likes losers endless posts about why and if but tell him about what is winning and he is not interested. PHEADRUS said it rather well when he said the chart was on an ever increaseing up trend and was boreing. I will tell you all again guys this is one of the better prospects. macdunk

k1w1
17-11-2004, 02:58 PM
Gosh Macdunk you waxing lyrical about a share you just purchased, who would have guessed ....

duncan macgregor
17-11-2004, 03:21 PM
KIWI, Yes my friend are you with me NUH. I do a lot of predicting have a go when i get one wrong.
If you had listened at the start less than a month ago you would be thanking me not condemning. $4-84 to $ 5-60 last time i noticed plus a fully imputed divi due 17th dec. Give me a decent one back kiwi and you will get my attention. All the best macdunk.

k1w1
17-11-2004, 04:22 PM
Are you in PGG MacDunk ?

duncan macgregor
17-11-2004, 05:01 PM
KiWI, YES $1-75 collected the divi as well macdunk

Mick100
17-11-2004, 06:20 PM
You should have held on to those NOG shares Macdunk. If i remember correctly you bought in the 70's and sold in the 80's. They are over a dollar now and rising.


Mick

duncan macgregor
17-11-2004, 07:24 PM
MICK100, Perhaps you are right sold at 86c bought tpw at $4-84 with the money now $5-50 and a 9c divi fully imputed n the 17th dec. I expect a better short term gain with tpw and will hold them long term. Wlll be back next year buy nog for the next thrill and drill. cheers macdunk.

ananda77
17-11-2004, 07:53 PM
Followed the same strategy, duncan, bought tpw at $4.85 on 29-October-2004 after I sold nog @$.88, bought back @$.85, and sold again @$.93.

So far the capital gain in TPW @$5.60 has been 14.3% not counting the dividend (in real terms a much larger gain than NOG would have delivered).

Yesterday, a larger volume has been traded @$5.60 and today the biggest trade went through again @$5.60.

Today $5.60 has proved to be a bit of a resistance but I am not worried about the close of $5.50 today. Totally normal trading pattern if you look back before the 16-July-2004 for the last dividend pay-out. With more than 2 weeks to go to dividend pay-out TPW will be back at least to $5.60.

At this stage I determine myself to hold past the dividend pay-out, although this will be a hard lesson for me...

I am still watching NOG with fascination but I am not tempted yet at this stage...after all Pike is too unsure as to the level of sell-down the company is prepared to take.

Lots of cash is needed to make NOG an earner (not before 2007) and the cash needs to come from somewhere...probably from the Pike float...therefore plenty of time and opportunity to buy back in.

duncan macgregor
18-11-2004, 08:47 AM
ANNANDA77 This is a long term dont sell share. The price of power will increase dramatically. The KYOTA agreement gaurantees this. HYDRO and windpower are the winners. Importing LNG to compensate depleted natural gas reserves on the cards must raise the price. This company is on a great long uptrend will buy heaps more after the divi comes out hopefully. macdunk

ananda77
18-11-2004, 10:13 AM
Great Duncan!

Agree with you 100%.

! Keep up the tight selling-discipline !

fish
18-11-2004, 08:37 PM
agree trustpower is undervalued and longterm is a safe investment.
However sold 3000 recently for 5-15 and bought 50000 nog options at 31.5 which are rocketing up .I suspect trustpower has plateaued at 5-50 and may drop somewhat.
Only very small trades in trustpower and contact have good liquidity and prospects and dividends
?should i sell the rest of my trustpower and buy contact and nog?
Trends look as if nogoc will be up another 20% in in the near future-probably this month .I think it could be a longtime before trustpower achieve this-but they will one day

ananda77
19-11-2004, 08:43 AM
Hey Fish, well done. At $.50 NOGOC will pay you over $9000.- this morning.

Tomorrow it might pay you $12000.-...but then again that's tomorrow.

Also tomorrow you can buy back again.

At least today, you are rich. Enjoy yourself today and spent $1000.- with your friends or family -highly rewarding too-.

My bottomline:

In a material sense, nothing but -A Dollar in Cash makes you rich-

duncan macgregor
19-11-2004, 10:08 AM
FISH, well done on nog. It pays however playing with shares like that to keep close watch. It reminds me a bit of poisiden in Australia. It was a fifty cent share mining company that shot up to thirty dollars so muggins thought thats to high and watched it rocket to $230-00 before it crashed to earth. It pays to have a few good uptrending companies regardless of how boring because one day that is where you end up making the steady gains. It will be years before nog make money you are gambling that they will find more oil gas or whatever. Great to dive in and out but dont get caught at the top if it goes the other way. Stay with a power company they will outpace the market while you have your fun but be carefull it can fall faster than it rises. macdunk

CAM
19-11-2004, 10:28 AM
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

It will be years before nog make money you are gambling that they will find more oil gas or whatever.


Really????

Dazza
19-11-2004, 08:44 PM
duncan, from what ive read about NOG, most of us are not waiting for the super high value of $230 etc, most of us are holding for either the PRCC IPO or until 2007/8 where who knows where NOG will be at... i to do predict that one day it will run out of steam, but by then... im sure most of us would have made the cash, and NOG will have settled for now,

as of now im sorry but i aint budging to sell my NOG or OC's :D

as for fish,
keep Trustpower , i believe it is a good company, not many shares left in the public arena, due to the buy back etc etc in the days.

my old man lost heaps in the 80s due to the crash, and now only has a small holding in trustpower he doesnt really care about nor trade it, usually i have to update him on it..

its one of those buy and hold and hold and hold... if i had trustpower shares i wouldnt sell any...

ananda77
23-11-2004, 08:43 AM
Contact and Genesis recently comissioned a feasibility study into the option of importing LNG. According to their findings it's a feasible option.

Wonderful! However, I just doubt the validity of such findings based on judgements of companies whose generation capacity, as is well-known in the case of Contact, depends to 50% on natural gas.


[center]The case for renewable generation[/center

...If you think power prices have taken a steep hike recently,it 's nothing compared to the what could happen if we move towards an electricity price based on imported fuel – and if access to that fuel is disrupted in some way. It just doesn't bear contemplation.

...There is a fundamental flaw in the advertising spin that says price can only come down at the expense of the environment, and vice versa.

I think that's dead wrong.

...I know that there is enough wind and hydro power to provide secure supply for the next 15 years at a price well below (well below) coal or LNG.

source: http://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/

Importing LNG simply spells disaster.

During the oil-shocks in the 1970's our massive reliance on imported fuels caused economic growth to slump substantially as well as a tremendous amount of social upheaval.

In 1978, tankers destined for New Zealand were diverted to other countries willing to pay more, and with more clout internationally than us.

The LNG-option will be the sure key for such things to happen again!

-Unlike Oil, NG (Natural Gas) must be liquified prior to shipping

-Needs to be shipped in specially designed refrigerated ships

-Needs to be landed at specially equipped ports

-Needs to be re-gasified for re-distribution

-Needs specially designed storage facilities

Energy Loss in the process: 15-30%

Energy analyst Stephen B Andrews recently wrote:

“According to the 'Oil Gas Journal' (8/21/00), there were 114 existing LNG tankers on January 2000. Only 8 vessels were available for spot-market trade...e.g. not locked in to long-term trading agreements.”

“The 28 LNG tankers now on order and being built will increase the LNG fleet’s capacity by close to 1/3. An additional 52 vessels would be required between 2005 and 2010. Combined, the total increase would be an 87% rise in LNG shipping capacity. Most of those on order today are locked into long-term trading contracts.”

“Today, the world trade in LNG is apparently about 125 billion cubic meters — which would make it around 5% of world natural gas consumption (using BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy for the total sum). LNG trade is forecast to increase by 35% by 2005. If all of that increase were directed to North America, it wouldn’t come close to covering our projected increased consumption.”

“As luck would have it, Asia has already spoken for that upcoming increase in new LNG. The potential for LNG imports in India and China is enormous".

...and in the United States, "orders for a massive number of natural gas-fired plants have already been placed (275 North American gas-fired electrical generation plants are planned to begin operations through 2006).These new gas plants require an unbelievable amount of natural gas (approx. 8.5 tcf). The supply is simply not there.”

Placebo
23-11-2004, 10:24 AM
Ananda I think it says something that the cost of setting up and sourcing supply to import LNG is a preferable option for Contact/Genesis than investing in wind/solar. Better solution to set up a risky supply chain to feed a continuing polluter when renewable sources (and technology for them) is available?

I'm wondering what sort of direction (if any) the feedback Contact are getting from their positive energy campaign is giving them. Some of it is posted on the website http://www.positive-energy.co.nz/feedback.php.

ananda77
23-11-2004, 11:53 AM
Placebo:

The only logical reason to do something like that is that they have invested heavily and have plans ready to invest further into gas-fired power plants.

From a financial viewpoint it makes sense to run those plants as long until they are depreciated.

Imported LNG is most likely their cheapest (thus preferred) option.

duncan macgregor
23-11-2004, 12:07 PM
When you invest in a system the cost of setting up etc, you have to let it run as long as you can. Contact have been buying power in, when it is cheaper than gas generation. Windpower is not the most economic system to set up, but is far cheaper than importing gas. It takes a long time to set up a wind farm, much easier to ship gas in and pass the cost on. TPW sit in the box seat as far as power generation goes a great long term buy. macdunk

ananda77
23-11-2004, 12:15 PM
Furthermore in "Ten Steps to a Sustainable Energy Future"

Rudolf Rechsteiner (Swiss MP)writes:

"The potential of wind power is indeed enormous: All the electricity consumed by the former European Union (EU-15) could be produced, with two 5 MW turbines positioned per km2, in an offshore area of 200 km x 200 km..."

With so much ocean around New Zealand, instead of trying to invest short of 1 billion dollars into a LNG-infrastructure wouldn't it make more sense to use the above option???

source: http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/steps.htm

ananda77
23-11-2004, 12:26 PM
Sorry duncan, but Rechsteiner would disagree with you re:

Windpower is not the most economic system to set up...and it takes a long time to set up a wind farm...

The economics of wind power are remarkable:

-investment costs of fairly less than 1euro/watt
-short building times (2-20 weeks)
-global availability, no emissions, no fuels and disposal costs
-low maintenance requirements and steadily falling generation costs thanks to increasingly efficient installations and mass production.

Wind power is fully immune to oil and gas price fluctuations. Wind hedging is gaining in importance on the US power market because natural gas, the widely preferred power plant fuel supply, is declining and experiencing alarming price rises and fluctuations.

Placebo
23-11-2004, 12:45 PM
quote:two 5 MW turbines positioned per km2, in an offshore area of 200 km x 200 km

Cloud cuckooland stuff. An area of 40,000 sq km? Offshore? Madness.

The guy sounds like a loony green.

Guys I'd be interested to know why you consider TPW to be such a rock-solid investment when it is as susceptible to the whims of the weather as Contact (perhaps more so as I understand a larger proportion of its generating portfolio is hydro). In saying that I'm assuming you consider TPW preferable to CEN.

ananda77
23-11-2004, 12:49 PM
Building a wind-farm out on the ocean to satisfy all the energy needs of New Zealand would be indeed a world-first project ever to be achieved...and we could really be proud to be a KIWI.

<center>A Think Big Project to Think Big about</center>

Placebo
23-11-2004, 12:55 PM
Beam me up Scotty. There's no intelligent life down here.

Snow Leopard
23-11-2004, 12:56 PM
Ananda77

You can not put windmills anywhere on the grounds that someone might be able to see them from their house, thus making the house worthless.
Windmills also frighten animals, this is another fact well known to everybody except the animals.

Anyway the wind does not blow all the time, and sometimes when it does it blows to hard. They would only be useful if you had a system that could store extra generation by saying pumping water uphill and releasing later through hydro, so you have to add the cost of that.

And finally when you give an indicative indication of the say the wind power requirements of europe, people take it literally and say don't be silly.

The best bet is to buy shares in all the power related shares and then you can burn the annual reports to keep warm.

[Please note that there may be an element of sarcasm somewhere in this post]

Snow Leopard
23-11-2004, 01:01 PM
Seriously putting wind turbines out at sea does have a few more problems than sticking them on terra firma. However NZ is one country that could successfully derive a reasonable amount of power from wind. It could be a good strategic decision for NZ to go for it.

Placebo
23-11-2004, 01:18 PM
Perhaps they should borrow a leaf from the "Hugo Boss book of tennis" and hire top fashion models to pose atop the windmills.

That'd get my vote![}:)]

ananda77
23-11-2004, 01:26 PM
Placebo:

Good idea, would most likely increase house-prices as well instead of the opposite.

Paper Tiger:

Good point re: energy requirements of Europe.

New Zealand would need far less wind mills spaced strategically around its landmass and in total a far less sqkm-area would be needed to achieve total energy independence.

It really would depend if we would want to produce hydrogen as well to power our much loved SVU's.

duncan macgregor
23-11-2004, 01:52 PM
HEY guys dont let a little wind upset you. What we are talking about here is where the macdunk dollar goes and why. Trust power is a better bet than CONTACT ENERGY. Contact are caught up with gas which is running out. Look up what management pay themselves the greedy bastards will still be alright but not as good a prospect as TPW. Windpower is not a new idea the dutch used to and still do have windmills to pump water and mill grain. The modern windmill is a completely new concept it feathers itself to keep constant regardless of wind force. The KYOTO agreement means that windpower will get credits, and gas and coal will get thumpted. Nuclear power NZealanders wont even consider it,so get used to the idea of seeing wind farms. PREDICTION 20pc per annum plus divis long term.
MACDUNK

duncan macgregor
24-11-2004, 01:38 PM
Buyers $5-66 sellers $5-90 . Going past that $5-60 sticking point. Dividend still to come in three weeks time. Looking good i cant see this dropping to much after the divi, the shares are on to big a trend. I will be in for more at that point all being equal.
macdunk

ananda77
24-11-2004, 02:52 PM
16-July 2003: TPW-shareprice drops back 5% (fees not included) after going ex-dividend before substantial rise...hardly worth the trading.

This time round, a very substantial rise is in the cards if TPW announces positive news, as announced due around x-mas, re: go-ahead of planned projects in Australia and New Zealand and further certainty about Contact importing LNG - a high risk strategy for New Zealand but the best thing that could happen to TPW.

ananda77
23-12-2004, 09:43 AM
This presents Excellent News. Bought more TPW on this annoncement.

23/12/2004GENERAL REL: 0902 HRS TrustPower Limited

GENERAL: TPW: TrustPower Plans New 120MW Wind Farm


Electricity generator and retailer TrustPower has announced plans to build the Southern Hemisphere's most technically advanced wind farm, adjacent to its existing facility in the Tararua Ranges.

Chief Executive Keith Tempest says the company has lodged a resource consentapplication with the Palmerston North City and Tararua District Councils for a wind farm consisting of 40 turbines, each delivering 3MW, and capable of producing enough power for 52,000 homes.
TrustPower's existing Tararua wind farm, which was built in 1999 and doubled in size this year, already produces enough power for 32,000 homes.
Mr Tempest says the proposed 3MW turbines represent the very latest technology available on the world market, and demonstrate the huge advances in efficiency that wind-turbine manufacturers have achieved over the past few years. Only a year ago, TrustPower would have been looking to install atleast 70 turbines to achieve the same performance, and five years ago would have required more than 160.

"Our Generation Manager and Wind Farm Development Manager recently completed a tour of international wind-turbine manufacturers, to make on-site inspections of their manufacturing and research and development facilities,and to validate each manufacturer's performance, warranty and service supportclaims.

As New Zealand's most experienced wind-farmer, TrustPower wants to make sure that it is using the very best technology available, in terms of cost, performance efficiency, reliability, and backup."

Mr Tempest says the project, which he hopes will be delivering power to New Zealand homes before the winter of 2006, is expected to cost $220 million.
The construction of the project will inject an estimated $70 million into the local economy, and once complete the new wind farm will employ a further team of seven full-time technical staff, which will also be of on-going benefit tothe region.

"All of that depends of course on our gaining a resource consent under favourable terms and in a reasonable time. We have lodged this consent application somewhat later than we had hoped, but that reflects our efforts to consult with a wide range of local stakeholders. That initial consultationhas revealed overwhelming support for our proposal, and as a result we areconfident the project will have community support.
Early next year everybodywill have the opportunity to put forward their view as part of the resourceconsent process, and we encourage them to do so."

Mr Tempest says TrustPower anticipates that with a resource consent being granted during the first quarter of 2005, the new wind farm can be generating power to help meet consumer demand for the winter of 2006.
"That will take New Zealand another step toward adding much needed additionalelectricity supply and targets for sustainable electricity generation, whileat the same time off-setting some 260,000 tonnes per annum of CO2 emissions,helpful in meeting Kyoto targets."

Keith TempestChief Exeuctive

duncan macgregor
02-01-2005, 06:20 AM
One of the best in 2004. I predict it will be one of the best in 2005. Heading in the right direction the sp trend is on a very steep uptrend and will continue to trend up. Not many people picked it in the competition which surprised me. macdunk

KJ
02-01-2005, 07:25 AM
My best LT stock for 2004-up 94% for yr-should have another good yr.

ananda77
02-01-2005, 06:51 PM
Will continue in 2005 to follow my strategy of holding:

-a producer/explorer of primary energy = Cue(asx).

-a producer of electricity = Tpw (nzx).

-a distributor of electricity/gas = Vector Bonds (ndx).

Cue (asx), a dual listed company, therefore exchange rate gains possible for 2005.

Dazza
23-01-2005, 10:01 PM
does tpw have a DRP? and anymore info too?

duncan macgregor
27-01-2005, 01:04 PM
TRUSTPOWER, latest announcement unaudited tax surplus up 17pc for the 2004 year. MACDUNK

KJ
27-01-2005, 02:26 PM
Should get it moving again.

fish
19-02-2005, 07:21 AM
Why is tpw heading down whilst cen heads up?

duncan macgregor
19-02-2005, 07:48 AM
fISH, Not to many shares on the open market moves up and down with very little volume. macdunk

Snow Leopard
13-05-2005, 09:37 AM
A reasonable year for TPW. I guess MacDunk will be along later to go on about it.

Disc: Own a tiny bit of IFT who own a bigger bit of TPW.

[quote]quote:
TPW
13/05/2005
FLLYR

REL: 0956 HRS TrustPower Limited

FLLYR: TPW: TrustPower Limited Audited Financial Results YE 31 March 05

- Consolidated operating surplus after tax was $73.2 million for the year
ended 31 March 2005.

- Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation $173.3
million.

- Fully imputed final dividend of 10.5 cents per share payable 29 July 2005
(record date of 15 July 2005).

Media Statement
Friday, 13 May 2005

TrustPower Limited Audited Financial Results for the Year Ended 31 March 2005

TrustPower's, consolidated operating surplus after tax was $73.2 million for
the year ended 31 March 2005, representing an 18 per cent increase on the
result for the 2004 financial year.
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation grew by 23 per
cent to $173.3 million from $140.4 million in the previous year.
Operating revenue of $612.3 million declined 3 per cent on the previous year
as a result of lower energy prices charged to those customers paying spot
market prices. Total volume sold was 5,873 GWh compared with 5,656 GWh in
the year to 31 March 2004, an increase of 4 per cent. Customer numbers
remained steady at around 225,000.
The New Zealand electricity environment for most of the 2005 financial year
featured above average lake storage levels and inflows. For the first nine
months of the year this led to low spot prices. However, in the final
quarter, while the previous hydro conditions prevailed, spot prices lifted
significantly due to a combination of thermal generators having capacity out
for scheduled maintenance, inter-island transmission constraints and some
North Island thermal generation not being able to be run at normal capacity
due to resource consent restrictions on cooling water.
Generation assets performed strongly with 2,071 GWh produced in the year to
31 March 2005 compared with 1,738 GWh in the prior year. This increase in
generation production was attributable to 10 months of production from Stage
II of the Tararua Wind Farm as well as higher than average production from
the Company's hydro assets following strong inflows particularly during the
last quarter.
Operating expenses including energy and line costs were down 8 per cent for
the year. The main reason for this reduction was lower energy costs relating
to spot paying customers offset by material increases in depreciation,
interest and electricity line costs.
Group operating cash flow was $110.0 million for the 2005 financial year
versus $90.9 million in the previous year.
TrustPower's balance sheet as at 31 March 2005 remains very strong and
provides a platform to support investment in new generation. Shareholders'
funds have increased to $883 million from $866 million. Debt (including
subordinated bonds) to debt + equity was 29 per cent at year end 2005
compared with 30 per cent year end 2004.
Net profit after tax, return on average shareholders' funds was 8.4 per cent.

Progress on the South Australian wind farm projects has been slower than
expected. Some key project arrangements have been completed and others are
awaiting counterparty approvals or are in the final stages of negotiation.
The decision whether to progress the Snowtown and Myponga projects through to
construction hinge on the South Australian Authorities granting a generation
license to each project.
This week the Tararua Stage III wind project is the subject of a resource
consent hearing. TrustPower is hopeful of a positive outcome from the
hearing so that it can move to conclude a turbine supply arrangement and
proceed to construction.
From TrustPower's perspective the process required by the Resource Management
Act is both time consuming and resource intensive. The Company is hopeful
that

duncan macgregor
13-05-2005, 12:57 PM
PT, The only comment i would make is after tax net profit of 8.4 pc on shareholders funds. Times like this its a good one to have under the bed. macdunk

ananda77
16-06-2005, 11:54 AM
<center>http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/905046/Windpower.gif</center>

...especially since Origin relinquished the Mangatoa permit.

Consequences for wholesale-gas-prices:

Contact paid $4.7 m/PJ in 2004. With Maui dying and LNG a real possibility now, it would not take long before wholesale-gas-prices could reach $6.0 - $8.0 m/PJ.

I would agree with Duncan:

<center>Times like this its a good one to have under the bed.</center>

Futurz
14-07-2005, 02:40 PM
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=LNT:US&sid=aYeDtYR83Ydw

New Zealand - Alliant Energy continues to evaluate the various alternatives to monetize its New Zealand investments. The Company's New Zealand investments had a fair market value, based solely on trading prices and exchange rates at June 30, 2005, of approximately US$340 million and a carrying value of approximately US$118 million as of March 31, 2005.

What are your thoughts on this MacDunk??

I believe Alliance holds 24% of TPW. I'm sure IFT will be involved in any sale by Alliance

duncan macgregor
14-07-2005, 03:41 PM
FUTURZ, My view of this is i hold shares in a very small company with a brilliant future, and cant go wrong. Tauranga energy company owns just under 30pc, Alliant owns just under 25pc, Infrantile own 35pc, leaving over 10pc for the remainder. If one of the big boys pull out then the games for control will begin. I cant see how i will lose I have a ringside seat LETS GET READY TO RUMBLE.
macdunk

Futurz
14-07-2005, 04:04 PM
Yep I have to agree that this company has a bright future, excuse the multiple puns[8D]
I dipped my toe in the water at the $5 mark so am fairly happy with the SP to date, especially with a 10.5 cent divi on the way.

I guess the real question will be if Alliance decide to sell will it need to be at a discount to find a willing buyer[?]

Anyway like you say time to sit back and watch the action:D

duncan macgregor
15-07-2005, 06:01 AM
It looks like ALLIANT want their money out of TRUST POWER may do a deal with Infratile. Looking good sitting on sidelines holding the tickets. This can only get the punters excited which means good times they are a coming. macdunk

CrossTrainer
18-07-2005, 08:15 PM
They have dropped more than the dividend today but I am confident that there is still good capital growth plus dividends to come over the medium term.

duncan macgregor
29-07-2005, 02:01 PM
Thought that i would bring it to your attention guys but this is one real good long term share to be in at this moment in time. macdunk

ananda77
01-09-2005, 10:21 AM
excerpts:

Contact Energy and Genesis Energy are examining importing liquefied natural gas (lng) for their gas-fired power stations. "I wonder what the lng price will rise to if oil gets to US$100 a barrel," Dr Turner said.

Renewable energy would help New Zealand avoid importing more fuel, and give more time for cleaner coal technologies to develop.

Energy Minister Trevor Mallard said New Zealand had to respond to the uncertainties over the future price and supply of oil by making better use of renewable energy. The Government had supported renewable energy with carbon credits. Wind power was becoming increasingly economic as power prices rose.

The whole article:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3394671a13,00.html

duncan macgregor
27-10-2005, 02:10 PM
TPW, as expected nice rise after the hy report. All the sheepie coming back as expected. I dont trade this stock for tax reasons so dont get smart and suggest i should have sold and bought back in. A share like this its not worth the effort. I think that this is a good solid share to hold for the bad times that are looming. MACDUNK

kittydashwood
27-10-2005, 03:03 PM
Should've stuck with the HQP Duncan.

Phaedrus
27-10-2005, 04:34 PM
McDunk, on 29/7 you reckoned that "this is one real good long term share to be in at this moment in time". Since then TPW has fallen by about 12%.

Today you say "this is a good solid share to hold for the bad times that are looming". Is it really though? Over the last 3 months TPW has fallen about 12% - while the Index has fallen 2%.

http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/TPWndx1027001.gif

blackcap
27-10-2005, 05:00 PM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

McDunk, on 29/7 you reckoned that "this is one real good long term share to be in at this moment in time". Since then TPW has fallen by about 12%.

Today you say "this is a good solid share to hold for the bad times that are looming". Is it really though? Over the last 3 months TPW has fallen about 12% - while the Index has fallen 2%.

http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/TPWndx1027001.gif


Phaedrus mate, I hope you are using a capital index for these comparisons and not a gross index?

duncan macgregor
27-10-2005, 05:30 PM
Blackcap, My old mate pheadrus is only trying to prove me wrong. I bought at $4-84 ave exactly one year ago, stuck them in the bottom drawer picking up the third divi shortly, the sp is 73c higher after according to PHEADRUS a 12pc drop. will i sell or trade the answer is no, i did my homework they stay in the bottom drawer. The reason is quite simple i dont want to trade this share and pay tax much better to sit back and watch it trend up. My trading portfolio is another story, but at the moment to have a couple of good solid companies that I know will over time keep trending up. macdunk

Phaedrus
27-10-2005, 06:09 PM
Blackcap, If the share price data is corrected for dividends, then the Gross Index should be used to make a fair comparison. In practice, the difference between the 2 indices only becomes significant over longer time periods.

Toddy
28-10-2005, 12:27 AM
What a fantastic result from TPW.

The punters will return.

CJ
28-10-2005, 01:55 AM
One thing I have noticed about TPW is how thinly it is traded. The price has the potential to move quite fast as there doesn't seem to be any institutional floor/ceiling to the price. Just whatever the mums and dads can sell their small parcels on market for.

duncan macgregor
28-10-2005, 05:54 AM
Cj, That is why i dont trade this share. macdunk

duncan macgregor
29-10-2005, 07:50 AM
Charts can show anything depending on the start and finish. Take trustpower, which shows up on the chart by PHEADRUS making it look like a dog. My long term hold is anything but a dog. Its not a trading share to thin and to tight to trade. Take my entry at average $4-84 exactly one year ago, add 86c rise in sp, plus 9c divi in dec plus another 10.5c divi then a 11c divi in dec again not bad for a non trading share in the bottom drawer. My 20 pc rise is being met without trading sitting in the bottom drawer. I fully expect the trend up to continue with the odd ripple giving buy opportunities.
macdunk

kittydashwood
30-10-2005, 08:38 AM
What else is in that bottom drawer MACD?
Apart from that bondage gear.

Snow Leopard
30-10-2005, 10:50 AM
quote:Originally posted by kittydashwood

What else is in that bottom drawer MACD?
Apart from that bondage gear.

and how would you know[?] [:0]

duncan macgregor
02-11-2005, 11:03 AM
This is one share that TA takes second place to fundamental analysis. The sp has shot right back up on the back of a very few trades. The chart with volume sold against the price fall and rise might make interesting reading if PHEADRUS can find the time to show why this is not a good trading share in my opinion. A few shares change hands will make this rise or fall dramatically. macdunk

kittydashwood
02-11-2005, 11:07 AM
You mean liquidity is low duncan.
TPW could increase generation by running a small thermal generator off your computer keyboard.
Something to discuss at the agm I feel.

Snow Leopard
02-11-2005, 11:25 AM
It would be funny if it wasn't true.

rmbbrave
09-01-2006, 02:10 PM
TrustPower investigating wind farm in Otago
09 January 2006

TrustPower has confirmed it is looking at developing a wind farm at Lake Mahinerangi, south of Dunedin.


TrustPower said the project could have installed capacity of up to 300MW, at a potential cost of up to $500 million.

The company said the wind farm would probably be built in 100MW increments.

It expected to apply for resource consents later this year, subject to results from various studies and reports.

Part of the land being investigated for the project included land owned by the Dunedin City Council, which has already approved TrustPower's initial investigations on this land.

The proposed location of the wind farm is close to TrustPower's largest hydro storage, Lake Mahinerangi, and the Waipori power stations.

TrustPower chief executive Keith Tempest said the wind farm would add security of electricity supply for consumers in Dunedin and surrounding areas.

AdvertisementAdvertisement"The ability to retain water when the wind is blowing for use when it is not, plus the availability of added peaking capacity provided when both resources are available, would give the best of both worlds in terms of sustainable generation," he said.

Shares in TrustPower were unchanged at $6.16 in early trading this morning, having ranged between $5.00 and $6.31 over the past 12 months.

In November fellow energy company Meridian Energy confirmed it was investigating a wind farm in Otago's Lammerlaw Ranges. Meridian's development could cost between $1.1 billion and $2 billion and be the world's largest wind farm.

kittydashwood
09-01-2006, 05:40 PM
Cheapest land in the country up that way.
Under 10k and acre with nothing but pine trees and dead miners.

limegreen
10-01-2006, 10:28 AM
Given the proximity of some of the lakes in the Waipori scheme, I wonder if installed NZ's first pumped capacity would be plausible? That would be a real coup if they could bank windpower all night and run it back out at peak periods.

duncan macgregor
10-01-2006, 03:25 PM
Limegreen. I might have you wrong but you cant pump water up hill to generate energy to make a profit. Its a great idea to generate with wind to conserve the water, then sell the stored energy at high spot prices. Water is energy stored to be used at the top of the market. Wind should be used all the time. I can only see good things happening for trust power. macdunk

limegreen
10-01-2006, 03:43 PM
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

Limegreen. I might have you wrong but you cant pump water up hill to generate energy to make a profit.


I don't know if it is profitable, but it's certainly done, as the following list attests (and accounts for over 5% of capacity in the EU). Usually it is to "store" thermally generated electricity (with an efficiency of 70-85%):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity

Interestingly, francis turbines (which are used in *some* power stations) can be designed such that the generator can be used as a motor and the turbine as a pump (effectively running the powerhouse in reverse).

However, you are right that without resorting to pumping, they can use less water during offpeak times, and plug the wind energy into the existing transmission infrastructure. This is also the logic behind Meridian's Lammerlaw scheme, which would see them running less water through Benmore, and dropping the windpower straight into the HVDC link to the north island.

In reality, a pumped scheme would make more sense near Auckland, probably pumping Hunty juice up hill overnight.

CJ
10-01-2006, 09:30 PM
Pumping can work if the spot price differencials are large enough - ie when everyone is asleep and the wind is blowing strong the spot price might be c but during the day and no wind and low dams (except the ones you have just filled) spot price might be $1. You lose efficency but if the differentials are great enough, it can work.

duncan macgregor
08-03-2006, 01:15 PM
Hope all you boys and girls take a look at TPW sp quietly creeping up. New windfarms on the horizon keeping pace with my time line even although i had to take a bit of flak on the way. This is one of the well run practical companies i feel safe to invest in. Bought at an average $4-84 18 months ago expect that sp to stay above my 20pc expectation level plus dividends for the longer term. POT is my other sure thing best run port in the southern hemisphere dropping dollar what more can a man say. macdunk

Snow Leopard
08-03-2006, 04:12 PM
Congratulations are indeed in order MacDunk.
Truly, your ability as a share picker is as great as your inability to explain your timeline system to the average ShareTrader#.
I look forward to the new windmills of both TrustPower and New Zealand Windfarms improving the vista from Palmerston North*.

Of course^ I will refrain from mentioning where you would be if you had invested in MFT instead.


#I understand it, honest.
*The best view is on a cold, clear morning when Ruapehu and Taranaki look so close that you feel you can reach out your hand and pick snow from the summits. However I am serious about the turbines, they represent engineering as art at it's most dramatic, beautiful and indeed graceful.
^Course is generally spelt course and not coarse in the context that most use it on this forum. Just a little tip from your friendly neighbourhood Tiger (who is never co****, of course).

duncan macgregor
08-03-2006, 04:50 PM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Congratulations are indeed in order MacDunk.
Truly, your ability as a share picker is as great as your inability to explain your timeline system to the average ShareTrader#.
I look forward to the new windmills of both TrustPower and New Zealand Windfarms improving the vista from Palmerston North*.

Of course^ I will refrain from mentioning where you would be if you had invested in MFT instead.


#I understand it, honest.
*The best view is on a cold, clear morning when Ruapehu and Taranaki look so close that you feel you can reach out your hand and pick snow from the summits. However I am serious about the turbines, they represent engineering as art at it's most dramatic, beautiful and indeed graceful.
^Course is generally spelt course and not coarse in the context that most use it on this forum. Just a little tip from your friendly neighbourhood Tiger (who is never co****, of course).

HEY PUDDY CAT When i see you beat my dog in the charts i might listen to a lecture on spelling. I wont get course of co**** but where did you dig that crap up?.

Snow Leopard
08-03-2006, 04:58 PM
Positions at 07/03/2006
<pre id="code">
Pos Entrant %Gain 1 2 3 4 5
=== ======================= ======= ====== ====== ====== ====== ======
2 duncan macgregor 28.08 CTL NZE SVY TRS WID
21 Paper Tiger 10.71 IFT JPF MFT RYM TEM
60 metro 4.76 BCA DFH MOW OGD TWR
</pre id="code">

listen and learn, oh great one :D

duncan macgregor
08-03-2006, 05:00 PM
ALL RIGHT PUDDY I AM ALL EARS. macdunk

fish
08-03-2006, 05:55 PM
congratulations MacDunk-looks like TPW may soon overtake CEN .

disc-hold both and holding on-I am not sure which will be the first to beat $8-i think both could easily hit $10 by the end of this decade

duncan macgregor
09-03-2006, 12:08 PM
quote:Originally posted by fish

congratulations MacDunk-looks like TPW may soon overtake CEN .

disc-hold both and holding on-I am not sure which will be the first to beat $8-i think both could easily hit $10 by the end of this decade

FISH, I thought and still do that TPW was a better prospect than CEN.
Lets face it electricity is in short supply, both must do well. The question was and still is the cost of production. Which one has the most growth potential. Trust power with its hydro and wind generation riding on the back of Contacts increased gas prices cant go wrong. We might be in for a rough winter as far as electricity goes, the only thing certain is power prices will increase. I still pick TPW over CEN as the investors best choice. macdunk

Dazza
15-03-2006, 09:34 PM
duncan or phaedrus

my dad is looking to sell his holdings...

u tink its a good time?

could i get a chart up? bigcharts dun do nzl no more &gt;&lt;

Sideshow Bob
15-03-2006, 09:40 PM
Dazza, can get one of Yahoo Australia

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TPW.NZ

Click on technical chart on the left hand side.

duncan macgregor
08-05-2006, 01:13 PM
Trust power looks like it is scoring a few drop out investors from telecom. The funny thing is CEN is going down today and TPW is up 4 percent this morning. I would have thought cen would have gone up a bit with TPW. The herd moves in funny directions when it starts to run. I wonder how long it takes before TPW sp is higher than CEN. macdunk

duncan macgregor
09-05-2006, 09:41 AM
Trustpower has sellers at $7-80 Contact energy has buyers at $7-80
will today be the day when we have a dead heat?. It is nice to think about winners for a change the forum seems obsessed with losers.
macdunk

duncan macgregor
12-05-2006, 12:03 PM
The Rise in the share price then the good news comes out. Who ever said its a cowboy exchange knows what they are talking about. I could tell the result was going to be a good one before i read it by the rise in the sp. Anybody that thinks charting cant forecast a result only has to look at rise and fall in volume and sp prior to due announcements in most of our companies. macdunk

lambton
12-05-2006, 08:56 PM
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

The Rise in the share price then the good news comes out. Who ever said its a cowboy exchange knows what they are talking about. I could tell the result was going to be a good one before i read it by the rise in the sp. Anybody that thinks charting cant forecast a result only has to look at rise and fall in volume and sp prior to due announcements in most of our companies. macdunk


Careful. Helen of NZ and her tribe are eyeing up the power coys and any other industry considered essential to the public good. Cullen funds likes buying low. Air NZ and Telecom. Simple but effective.

Dazza
12-05-2006, 09:46 PM
sold at 7.30 around 4k shares

happy to place money back into mortage

good luck to existing holders.

duncan macgregor
15-05-2006, 07:52 AM
quote:Originally posted by Dazza

sold at 7.30 around 4k shares

happy to place money back into mortage

good luck to existing holders.
DAZZA, I dont quite understand the system you are using could you please enlighten me. You sell TPW a share on a strong uptrend and hold TEL a share on a strong down trend. I would think that whatever price you paid for TPW that you would be well in profit, why sell?. Your TEL shares must see you sitting on a loss against the average rise in the market regardless of when you bought them. macdunk

duncan macgregor
16-05-2006, 08:25 AM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

McDunk, on 29/7 you reckoned that "this is one real good long term share to be in at this moment in time". Since then TPW has fallen by about 12%.

Today you say "this is a good solid share to hold for the bad times that are looming". Is it really though? Over the last 3 months TPW has fallen about 12% - while the Index has fallen 2%.

http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/TPWndx1027001.gif

I now take it PHAEDRUS that you are a long time holder that ignored your sell signal to get out. I say that because you infer in your go at SNOOPY that you do hold this share. A bit two faced dont you think?. MACDUNK

Phaedrus
16-05-2006, 09:50 AM
Duncan,
What makes you think I am a "long-term" holder of TPW? I'm not.
What makes you think I ignored the Sell signal I posted? I didn't.

The chart that accompanied the post you are quoting has unfortunately somehow dropped off. Here it is again. It shows what I did, when, how and why.

With hindsight, anyone can see that it was barely worthwhile trading in and out as I did. But that is not the point here is it? TPW broke below its long-term trendline so I sold. That's my system. By way of contrast, FBU has not broken below its long-term trendline so I am still holding - as I have done for over 5 years, so far.

The idea of the comparative chart was to show Snoopy that his system selects stocks that substantially underperform the Index. When their performance is compared with that of a few representative "good" stocks, the performance differential is simply enormous.

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-2/1151662/TPW516001.gif

duncan macgregor
16-05-2006, 10:26 AM
PHAEDRUS, The trend lines for TPW and FBU are similar, yet you say you traded out of TPW, and held on to FBU. That is the one reason I use a time line plus common sense. Your tentative trend lines, and your confirmed trend lines are a blur in the eye of the beholder. I cant see if you are consistant, that you would trade TPW and hold on to FBU in similar circumstance. I would be very interested to know why you dont enter the trading contest, or why you never say I hold this or that, then come in after the event, and say you should have done this or that. I learned a lot about TA studying your methods then moved on did the same with fundamentals and SNOOPY.
Stick your FBU chart up with TPW, then tell me why you traded TPW and stayed with FBU. Tell the boys and girls [like SNOOPY and myself do]what you hold. I might have a bit more respect for you then, if you risk getting egg on your face. macdunk

Phaedrus
16-05-2006, 12:32 PM
"The (long-term) trend lines for TPW and FBU are similar"
No they are not. One has been broken, one hasn't.

"Your tentative trend lines, and your confirmed trend lines are a blur in the eye of the beholder".
Clean your glasses. The TPW chart is quite clear and very simple. The light blue arrows mark the points used to create an initial tentative trendline and the dark blue arrows mark the points where tentative trendlines were confirmed. The big arrows mark where price action crossed the confirmed trendlines giving Buy/Sell signals. I can't make it any simpler or clearer than that.

"I cant see if you are consistant".
I went to the trouble of showing exactly how, where and why the trendlines were drawn solely because then anyone could see the obvious consistency. Except you, perhaps.

"Stick your FBU chart up......then tell me why you stayed with FBU."
Duncan, now you are just being lazy. I have lost track of the number of FBU charts I have posted over the years. Look them up yourself. Here is a helpful hint - most of them are on the "FBU Chart" thread. There is a nice simple one on Page 34.

duncan macgregor
16-05-2006, 01:06 PM
NOT WHAT I MEANT PHAEDRUS. The FBU chart is very similar to the TPW chart if you place one over the other. The big difference is you reading tentative trend lines into one and a confirmed trend line into the other. Take that patch off your eye and look at it with both eyes next time. I only said that because it is so obvious.
No ifs or buts with a timeline my old mate, I know exactly how the share is doing, not maybe or mights with confirmed or tentative trendlines.
Come accross if you dare, and let SNOOPY do a fundamental analysis of your hand. You take unfair advantage of SNOOPY, attacking his companies without disclosing yours. I tell you what i hold, SNOOPY tells you his then you jump out the bushes to attack. Get off the fence and think about it are you scared you end up with egg on your face. macdunk

Snow Leopard
16-05-2006, 01:56 PM
Phaedrus, I think you are wasting your time trying to discuss TA with a combative ex builder whose idea of defining a trend/time line is to hold a scaffolding plank up against his monitor whilst it displays a stocknessmonster chart.

All in fun, as the man himself says

regards

Paper Tiger

duncan macgregor
16-05-2006, 02:24 PM
Nice to see you back papery one. We were a bit worried about you. You should have used the macdunk got it wrong thread for a decent laugh. MACDUNK

beacon
16-05-2006, 04:45 PM
Thanks for your comments Phaedrus. They are very helpful. Likewise are Snoopy's efforts to share his thoughts on fundamentals. Duncan, leave this childishness and carry on sharing your insights please.

duncan macgregor
19-05-2006, 08:37 AM
TPW leading up to the budget TPW has lost nearly $1-00 in sp. PHAEDRUS would have sold for a third time, at just under $7-00 if he was true to form sticking with his system. SNOOPY would be buying more averaging down, but what about me with my system?.
Being of sound mind, I dont have a complete zombie like mechanical buy or sell system. I also respect what the market is telling me, and that is to sell. I then ask myself why is the market telling me to sell?, and why not respect that the market knows better than I do.
Is TRUSTPOWER different at this moment in time to ignore sell signs, and if so why is it different. Trustpower has had an excellent year, its prospects for next year are better than last years prospects, its market is increasing in size, along with demand for its product.
The reasons it went down is, it is a very thinly traded share, moves up and down fast, with very few shares traded. TEL scared the punters, as did the coming budget with fears of regulation.
I know that CEN dropped, so it was not just a company thing that was going on it was a general short term blip, other than the govt setting new rules and regulations, that i considered extremely unlikely. The fundamentals told me to buy, the TA told me to sell, with me having a foot in both camps I had to make a decision fast.
SNOOPY and the MAJOR would be proud of my decision, PHAEDRUS would be disgusted, but thats what i did i used my common sense and bought a few more. Very few instances that i ignore sell signs, but this is an exception. Understanding the market and other investors view points, with reasons they think that way, is the more important than a mechanical, buy or sell system.
I always say what i buy or sell on the forum, unlike a lot of the more outspoken critics of other peoples systems, it keeps you honest and improves your performance. macdunk

rmbbrave
19-05-2006, 11:32 AM
You might think you always say what you do, but ask yourself if anyone understands it?

You write so poorly that despite having read your post several times I can't work out whether you having been buying, selling or holding in the past 10 days.

Please enlighten us all as clearly as possible.

Dazza
19-05-2006, 11:43 AM
erh duncan, sorry but i hadnt updated my DISC

i sold out of tel about 2 monthso, for a small gain. sold at 5.60-70 or something around there.

TPW = worth nothing to dad, cause we got it when we were in tauranga, via the power thingie.

sold now, cause using it for property duncan :P

a cool 30k is good for us.

duncan macgregor
19-05-2006, 11:53 AM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

You might think you always say what you do, but ask yourself if anyone understands it?

You write so poorly that despite having read your post several times I can't work out whether you having been buying, selling or holding in the past 10 days.

Please enlighten us all as clearly as possible.
RMBBRAVE, I did Take it that you might be bright enough to work it out. I said PHAEDRUS would be disgusted SNOOPY and MVT would approve. Surely even you must be able to follow that.
PHAEDRUS always sells on a sell signal. SNOOPY and MVT buy more averaging down. Perhaps you should stick to the things that you can work out. macdunk

rmbbrave
17-09-2006, 12:40 PM
Key TrustPower stake likely to splinter
17 September 2006
By GARRY SHEERAN

Those looking for buyers of American shareholder Alliant's 23.8% holding in TrustPower say it will lead to a more actively traded share register.


Such a stake in a key infrastructure player would usually be eagerly sought by a competitor or energy investor.

But TrustPower has two other cornerstone investors - Infratil and Tauranga Energy Consumer Trust - who own nearly 64% of the company. It seems unlikely either would quit as well.

Consumer trustees last week decided to explore the buying more shares.

"We are financially strong, although it would be a major transaction to take the lot," saidchairman Michael Cooney.

Infratil director Brian Harkness discounted suggestions his company may bail out too.

"Any party coming into Trustpower will have to accept they will be a substantial minority - and that is all."

An added complication for buyers of the stake - worth more than $500 million -is that Infratil has first right of refusal. And takeover code provisions require any buyer to make a full takeover offer.

Analysts suggest the stake will be sold piecemeal to professional investors looking for a tidy holding in Infratil, but not wanting control.

With three significant shareholders for many years, only 12% of TrustPower's shares have been effectively tradeable. That will increase to 36% if the Alliant stake is broken up. And that is being seen as a plus amid all the other complicating factors in a complex process.

ABN Amro has canvassed professional investor interest in Alliant's Trustpower stake, as well as the American investor's 5.07% stake in Infratil.

In a separate move, First NZ Capital has been asked to find buyers for the holding company which holds both stakes.

Although the latter task appears more difficult, analysts are not discounting it altogether. The Infratil right of refusal does not apply if the shares are sold as a job lot through the holding company. The investment might be considered by a rival electricity generators Contact or Meridian - if they were prepared to take a longterm view, said analysts.

Toddy
28-09-2006, 09:55 PM
October should be an interesting month for TPW/IFT.

NEW ZEALAND: A JEWEL IN THE ENERGY CROWN
NICK STRIDE
TRUSTPOWER is one of New Zealand's little-recognised investment jewels and Alliant Energy's shares are expected to attract keen interest from managed funds.

One attraction is the company's generation of power 100% from "clean," renewable resources.

That puts it on the radar screen for the growing throng of fund managers offering investors "ethical" funds.

The Carbon Disclosure Project, for example, is an annual exercise drawing data from the world's top companies on how they deal with climate- change issues such as greenhouse gas emissions. The project's backers are 225 groups managing funds of $US31 trillion.

TrustPower has 33 hydro stations on both islands and the 31-turbine Tararua wind farm near Palmerston North.

Analysts say this is a potent combination because when the wind is blowing the company can cut back on its hydro output, allowing the dams to refill.

Its average annual generation is 1,940 gigawatt hours, making it a minnow compared with, say, Contact Energy, which last year pumped out 11,534 hours.

Options for new capacity include hydro, the Arnold, Wairau and Waipori Hydro enhancement projects, totalling up to 607 hours annual output, and Tararua Stage 3 wind project, under construction, which could add 350 hours.

Another wind farm, the 300 megawatt Waipori site in Otago, is on hold as the falling dollar and other factors have rendered some wind projects uneconomic.

Australian options are the 40MW Myponga site and the 335MW Snowtown site.

The company is a net retailer, ie, it sells more power than it generates and buys the rest on the spot market, meaning it has an exposure to wholesale market prices.

It covers this with hedge contracts for the proportion of load sold at fixed prices.

A second attraction is the spiralling price of electricity as cheap Maui gas runs out.

Along with load growth outpacing the commissioning of new generation capacity, this has pushed steady growth in generator/retailers' profits in recent years.

The combined net profits of the five big generators - Contact, TrustPower, Meridian, Genesis and Mighty River Power - have risen from $287 million in 2002 to $664 million last year. Foreign funds will also like the fact the generation and retail markets are unregulated.

The Commerce Commission has been investigating competition in those markets for more than a year.

But it has said it's looking only for specific instances of anti-competitive behaviour, not conducting a review of market functionality.

Managed funds with portfolios replicating NZSX indices will have to buy the shares if Alliant's stake goes to institutional tender.

Based on free-float market capitalisation, the company's shares will move from a ranking of 32nd to 10th among New Zealand listed companies and it will comprise 2.7% of the NZSX50 index.

An institutional sale will also improve trading liquidity for both TrustPower and Infratil.
(c) 2006 The Independent Business Weekly

Source: The Independent Financial Review

Steve
12-01-2007, 07:27 PM
Another NZ company setting up operations in Aussie. On the face of it, it appears to be a good strategic move

TrustPower to proceed with wind farm in Australia (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10418822)
TrustPower today announced it would start constructing a $200 million wind farm in South Australia's mid-north in April, which it said would be its Australian beachhead.

The company said plans had been finalised for the construction of 42 wind turbines on the Hummocks and Barunga Ranges west of Snowtown, 170km north of Adelaide.

The wind farm, which will have a capacity of 88MW -- enough to power 60,000 average South Australian houses -- is stage one of a possible 130 turbine project that has been approved for the site.

kura
13-01-2007, 09:39 AM
Isn't Snowtown the place where they found those "bodies in the barrels" ? (many years ago)

Binklebonk
13-01-2007, 10:42 AM
quote:Originally posted by kura

Isn't Snowtown the place where they found those "bodies in the barrels" ? (many years ago)

Apparently so and the locals are very keen for the town to be famous for something else.

kura
14-01-2007, 01:36 AM
quote:Originally posted by Binklebonk


quote:Originally posted by kura

Isn't Snowtown the place where they found those "bodies in the barrels" ? (many years ago)

Apparently so and the locals are very keen for the town to be famous for something else.


Ok then, how is this for a potential newsflash

Bodies found in abandoned windfarm site

Snoopy
10-07-2013, 02:30 PM
Well here is a turn up for the books. A major NZ company that has been very successful on the market, yet there has been no posting for over six years!

Well I am not a holder, but I was wondering what might happen to Trustpower should a Labour/Green minister of energy come to power. I opened the FY2013 annual report and found the CEO was thinking aloud about the same thing:

"Recently, the Labour Party and New Zealand Greens have announced a proposed electricity policy that is a radical reversal of the progressive market reforms over the last fifteen years in New Zealand. Fortunately there is time for full evaluation of this model but I do note that, somewhat ironically, if the Central Buyer model was in place, and demand falls, such as with the possible closure of Tiwai, cost recovery would be more difficult for the Central Buyer and power prices would need to rise as the Central Buyer’s costs need recovering over a smaller sales volume. Under a market based framework excess supply leads to soft prices whereas with a centralised cost recovery Government department, prices must rise to cover fixed purchase cost obligations."

So says VINCE HAWKSWORTH, the Chief Executive.

I have to admit, this is not an angle I had thought about before.

SNOOPY

Snoopy
10-07-2013, 02:39 PM
So says VINCE HAWKSWORTH, the Chief Executive.


Later on in the CEO report, Vince has more to say:

"Governments the world over do not have good track records of efficient allocation of investment capital or risk management through the electricity supply chain. Single buyer models perform poorly when future electricity requirements turn out differently to the planners expectation. Single buyers enter long term contract obligations and these must inevitably be underwritten by electricity consumers and tax payers."

"In contrast, the current market framework has, for the last twenty years, managed the transition away from dwindling low cost Maui gas and reliance on high carbon emission thermal plant to renewables without risk to electricity consumers or taxpayers. New Zealand is the only country in the world that has achieved unsubsidised wind generation through efficient and timely investments by market participants."

"Companies such as TrustPower have also invested huge effort and resources to establish a solid pipeline of potential new renewable projects. In aggregate New Zealand has an enviable resilience in its power sector with diversified low cost options for renewable power. However, TrustPower and the electricity industry need a workable regulatory environment to continue to deliver these outcomes. New Zealand can ill afford dramatic regulatory and policy interventions that cast aside the framework on which investors have made long term investment decisions. The consequent impact on private property values will surely deter continued domestic and foreign investment in New Zealand’s future infrastructure."

Stern stuff from Vince! The only problem is where overall demand is not growing (so the government can easily estimate demand), and there is no need to construct new power stations (so no direction of new private investment is required), I suspect the centralized buying model would work quite well.

SNOOPY

Snoopy
10-07-2013, 02:59 PM
I was wondering what might happen to Trustpower should a Labour/Green minister of energy come to power.


Turn to page 42 of the FY2013 and look at the revaluation reserve. It comes to $1,025m. I see total assets are $2,976m. So it looks like Trustpowers assets are overvalued by a billion or so. All good grist to Labour/Green Minister of energy. Return on average shareholder funds is 8%. Sounds reasonable. But with a reduction is asset values by 1/3 our Labour/Greens Minister will be looking to reduce power prices by a third. A bomb here waiting for TPW shareholders?

SNOOPY

Silverlight
10-07-2013, 03:51 PM
Turn to page 42 of the FY2013 and look at the revaluation reserve. It comes to $1,025m. I see total assets are $2,976m. So it looks like Trustpowers assets are overvalued by a billion or so. All good grist to Labour/Green Minister of energy. Return on average shareholder funds is 8%. Sounds reasonable. But with a reduction is asset values by 1/3 our Labour/Greens Minister will be looking to reduce power prices by a third. A bomb here waiting for TPW shareholders?

SNOOPY

Hi Snoopy,

Trustpower have their assets independently verified, and then add this to the balance sheet so their assets increase or decrease each year (to circa $3b today), like in the 2012 report it was revalued upwards by $200m.

Not a balance sheet guru, but what does the reserve actually mean, what is the purpose of the line item detailing the revaluations over time, if they are independently done?

Thanks in advance if you know the answer.

Silverlight
10-07-2013, 04:00 PM
Hi Snoopy,

Trustpower have their assets independently verified, and then add this to the balance sheet so their assets increase or decrease each year (to circa $3b today), like in the 2012 report it was revalued upwards by $200m.

Not a balance sheet guru, but what does the reserve actually mean, what is the purpose of the line item detailing the revaluations over time, if they are independently done?

Thanks in advance if you know the answer.

To answer my own question I have refamilirsed myself with balance sheets. So the asset value is increased, and then transferred back into assets as retained earnings over the life of the asset. So the $1b would slowly be added as retained earnings over the life of the asset. Therefore Trustpowers assets are not overvalued by $1b, unless you disagree with the independent valuers, or were you jumping three steps ahead to say, that under labour/greens, the value of Trustpower ability to earn a specificed ROI would fall under a central buyer model, and then would be reflected in Trustpower devaluing its asset base back down by $1b?

CJ
10-07-2013, 04:33 PM
Silverlight - the Greens disagree with the valuers and would revalue them back down to historical cost which would be below the cost to Trustpower (I understand they went on a buying spree when the lines companies had to divest).

zigzag
10-07-2013, 04:36 PM
My house is over 100 years old, so I wish they would calculate my rates using the same method. I believe this is the jist of an idea I read from Infratil.

Snoopy
11-07-2013, 02:33 PM
To answer my own question I have familiarized myself with balance sheets. So the asset value is increased, and then transferred back into assets as retained earnings over the life of the asset. So the $1b would slowly be added as retained earnings over the life of the asset. Therefore Trustpowers assets are not overvalued by $1b, unless you disagree with the independent valuers, or were you jumping three steps ahead to say, that under labour/greens, the value of Trustpower ability to earn a specificed ROI would fall under a central buyer model, and then would be reflected in Trustpower devaluing its asset base back down by $1b?


I was going to say CJ answered your question Silverlight, but I think the most thorough answer is the one you have composed yourself!

SNOOPY

Snoopy
11-07-2013, 03:07 PM
Turn to page 42 of the FY2013 and look at the revaluation reserve. It comes to $1,025m. I see total assets are $2,976m. So it looks like Trustpowers assets are overvalued by a billion or so. All good grist to Labour/Green Minister of energy. Return on average shareholder funds is 8%. Sounds reasonable. But with a reduction is asset values by 1/3 our Labour/Greens Minister will be looking to reduce power prices by a third. A bomb here waiting for TPW shareholders?


I should note here that a potential Labour/Green government is interested in return on assets (ROA), rather than return on equity (ROE). While one can be a pointer to the other, ROE is also more dependent on the debt levels of the company. Management have a big say in the capital structure of any company and could make borrowing decisions that disguises the underlying return on assets in a very significant way.

Page 46 of AR2013 lists generation assets at cost to be $1,510.3m, vs $2.482m (p55 AR2013) as the actual book value of the generation assets. Underlying earnings after tax are listed as $127m (p30 AR2013).

So ROA becomes $127m / $2.482m = 5.1% if you subscribe to the power station valuations subscribed to by independent valuers OR
$127m / $1,510m = 8.4% if you subscribe to the Labour/Green valuation model.

Either way you look at it both figures are well ahead of Contact Energy (post 628 CEN thread)

$176m / ($5,163m + $51.5m) = 3.4% (based on FY2012 figures)

This illustrates the greater risk that exists at TPW, that a Labour/Green government might significantly downgrade TPWs allowable returns

SNOOPY

andysh
11-07-2013, 03:11 PM
What about ROA using revenue, not NPAT? If you are using NPAT you can get more out of your assets by being an inefficient company / paying the directors and management more.

CJ
11-07-2013, 04:01 PM
$127m / $1,510m = 8.4% if you subscribe to the Labour/Green valuation model.Thats roughly what the comcom allows Vector isn't it?

andysh
12-07-2013, 02:08 PM
Bit of a follow up post,

Revenue for Trust power is $765m, therefore under the cost model getting 57%, and under the valuation model is 29%. For Contact, got income of $2,680 I couldn't work out what the cost of the generation assets are, however under the valuation get 52%.

Therefore Contact is getting 52% income out of their assets, vs Trustpower is getting 29%, yet getting a higher ROA. Don't know what the Labour/Greens policy would be, but going purely of ROA might be a bit harsh? As I said before this does not encourage one to run their business efficiently, compared to a income return on assets?

Thoughts?

Disc: Hold IFT, not TPW.

bull....
12-07-2013, 02:31 PM
from a operating cash flow point of view TP stacks up best if my calcs are correct followed by MRP an then contact guess could explain the relative out performance of tp

Snoopy
12-07-2013, 04:53 PM
What about ROA using revenue, not NPAT? If you are using NPAT you can get more out of your assets by being an inefficient company / paying the directors and management more.


Yes good point Andysh. I had been assuming that Labour/Greens would use a 'traditional' ROA measure (net profit/assets employed), but of course this may not be correct. They could easily use a different measure, such as the one you suggest. Good lateral thinking there!

SNOOPY

Snoopy
13-07-2013, 02:49 PM
from a operating cash flow point of view TP stacks up best if my calcs are correct followed by MRP an then contact guess could explain the relative out performance of tp


What years have you compared bull? Are you considering straight operating cashflow or operating cashflow divided by revenue? Can't comment too much on your proposition as I am not very clear what you are looking at. However, I do know that both Contact Energy and Mighty River power are in the middle of commissioning a major new thermal power station each. So this may have some bearing on your comparison.

Given that large capital expenditures can make operating cashflow lumpy, as a general rule I would say using operating cashflow to compare power producers would not be a good yardstick.

SNOOPY

Snoopy
13-07-2013, 03:12 PM
Bit of a follow up post,

Revenue for Trust power is $765m, therefore under the cost model getting 57%, and under the valuation model is 29%.


I agree on your revenue to asset ratio on the book value (valuation in your terms) modelling for TPW for FY2013.
$756m / $2,482m =30.4%

I get a notably lower lower revenue to asset ratio figure for the cost value modelling for TPW for FY2013
$756m / $1,510m = 50.1%




For Contact, got income of $2,680 I couldn't work out what the cost of the generation assets are, however under the valuation get 52%.


I agree with your revenue on book value of assets for Contact Energy for FY2012:

$2,680m / ($5,163m+ 51.5m) = 51.4%

Out of interest I calculate the 'TOA' (as I have coined it below) for Mighty River Power for FY2014 as follows:

$1,834m/ ($5,154m+$69.5m+ $32.2m) = 34.9%

I have used FY2014 as a comparison because there are no large new power stations being commissioned in that forecast year.




Therefore Contact is getting 52% income out of their assets, vs Trustpower is getting 29%, yet getting a higher ROA.


Let's not use the word 'income' when you mean 'turnover'. They are very different things. But it doesn't invalidate your inter-company comparison.



Don't know what the Labour/Greens policy would be, but going purely of ROA might be a bit harsh? As I said before this does not encourage one to run their business efficiently, compared to a income return on assets?

Thoughts?


I agree that looking at just return on assets as a metric would not work , as one statistic on its own can always give misleading comparisons. Maybe a combination of ROA and TOA (Operating turnover on assets, as per your suggestion)?



Disc: Hold IFT, not TPW.


It occurs to me that the worst affected company on the NZX as regards potential Labour/Green power legislation would be Infratil. They are leveraged investors into TPW. Granted they have over 50% so can consolidate the TPW results and avoid large asset write-downs should the TPW share price plunge. But they would have to continue to hold their stake in Infratil to avoid assets write-downs that could cripple the company going forwards. Infratil would effectively be caught in an Trustpower straightjacket for the rest of their existence, which doesn't bode well for new investments outside of Trustpower going forwards.

SNOOPY

Snoopy
13-07-2013, 03:32 PM
Bit of a follow up post,

Revenue for Trust power is $765m, therefore under the cost model getting 57%, and under the valuation model is 29%. For Contact, got income of $2,680 I couldn't work out what the cost of the generation assets are, however under the valuation get 52%.

Therefore Contact is getting 52% income out of their assets, vs Trustpower is getting 29%, yet getting a higher ROA. Don't know what the Labour/Greens policy would be, but going purely of ROA might be a bit harsh? As I said before this does not encourage one to run their business efficiently, compared to a income return on assets?

Thoughts?


A few more not so random thoughts on Trustpower.

Unlike Contact and Mighty River, they have some telecommunications assets and are looking at getting into irrigation as part of the Canterbury plains scheme as an adjunct to their hydro power generation in the area. Yet in the annual report divisional analysis they chose not to separate these alternative income streams out. Instead they considered themselves having 'New Zealand' and 'Australian' segments only. Everything else has been rolled up with head office functions into 'other'. Not good from a transparency viewpoint going forwards I thought.

Trustpower is also very different because their hydro power generated is substantial overall, yet spread over a very large number of 'mini' stations, at least in a CEN/MRP sense. I thought about using my CEN cost figures scaled down to estimate TPWs individual power station working parts values. But I don't think using costs for a 200MW station can be scaled down in a meaningful way to a power station one tenth of that size (a station size more typical of Trustpower).

SNOOPY

bull....
13-07-2013, 06:14 PM
What years have you compared bull? Are you considering straight operating cashflow or operating cashflow divided by revenue? Can't comment too much on your proposition as I am not very clear what you are looking at. However, I do know that both Contact Energy and Mighty River power are in the middle of commissioning a major new thermal power station each. So this may have some bearing on your comparison.

Given that large capital expenditures can make operating cashflow lumpy, as a general rule I would say using operating cashflow to compare power producers would not be a good yardstick.

SNOOPY

hi snoopy I was looking at it from the operating cushion point of view because companies with a better cushion can fund growth , divs etc more easily and the years I looked at tp cushion was the best

Snoopy
19-07-2013, 01:57 PM
hi snoopy I was looking at it from the operating cushion point of view because companies with a better cushion can fund growth , divs etc more easily and the years I looked at tp cushion was the best


Ah OK bull. I do note that none of the big 5 power companies seem to have had any problems financially with either upgrading existing power stations or building new ones. I don't believe TPW is building any significant new stations in NZ at least right now. Both CEN and MRP are in the process of building new geothermal stations as I write this. So that would obviously be reflected your cashflow comparisons.

SNOOPY

Snoopy
19-07-2013, 02:06 PM
Thats roughly what the comcom allows Vector isn't it?


I don't follow Vector closely CJ, so I 'll take your word for it that 8.4% is regarded by the commerce commission as an acceptable return for Vector. I am not sure a Labour/Green energy minister would go with that 8.4% though. Donning my impish green cap, I would argue that Vector's assets are smaller (think power poles and wires vs dams) and more distributed and more often in need of replacement or upgrading. Think of the trend towards undergrounding of wires, etc. So Vector actually needs a higher return on capital to take into account the shorter life of their assets. The power generators should be able to survive on much less than 8.4%.

SNOOPY

Snoopy
09-08-2013, 02:51 PM
I am in the process of looking at the capital expenditure verses depreciation equation for Trustpower. I am struggling a bit with the different presentation of accounts over the last 10 years. Note 13 in AR2005 shows 'capital expenditure accruals' of $0 for FY2005. AR2007 shows 'capital expenditure accruals' for FY2006 of $0 for FY2006. The equivalent figure for FY2007 is $36.793m for 'capital expenditure accruals' which is a figure of the order of what I was expecting. I say that because $36.7m is of the same order as the depreciation figures for generation equipment listed annually over the last 10 years. Yet if my looking up is correct, Trustpower spent absolutely nothing on capital expenditure for the whole of FY2006 and FY2005. This doesn't seem likely, and yet....

Anyway I would appreciate it if anyone can offer a second opinion on this.

SNOOPY

Snoopy
11-08-2013, 01:26 PM
I am struggling a bit with the different presentation of accounts over the last 10 years.


One of the accounting policies that I haven't seen before in relation to a power generation company is that each year, Trustpower expenses a significant amount of 'Generation development expenditure' (E.g. page 5 AR2008). Now I can understand this if the expenditure relates to generation projects that are no longer being developed. But the fact that this happens every year with a quantum of around $10m I find very puzzling. The fact that it happens every year without fail suggests this written off expenditure relates to something else. Ordinarily I would expect such expenditure to be capitalized if it relates to a power station that is still being constructed, or improved. So I am not sure what is going on.

What I do find is that if I stack up the cumulative capital expenditure in New Zealand from FY2008 to FY2013 inclusive, against the offsetting depreciation in the accounts (assuming all of that comes from NZ assets, because Oz Assets are still in the construction phase), the capital expenditure only just exceeds depreciation. That would be fine if the cost of constructing power stations did not rise over time. For comparison the Capex spending of both Contact Energy and Mighty River Power over ten years is approximately twice depreciation. So my conclusion is that Trustpower is not setting aside enough capital to allow for the wear and tear and ultimate replacement of their NZ generation assets. If that is true, then Trustpower shareholders should be concerned in my view. However, my six years of Trustpower data is not really enough to state my fears definitively. This is why I am trying to study FY2004 to FY2008 annual results to round things out to a ten year picture.

SNOOPY

RTM
23-04-2015, 08:23 AM
TPW: Trading Halt of Securities

Hmmmm...wonder what is going on ?

dingoNZ
23-04-2015, 08:24 AM
TPW: Trading Halt of Securities

Hmmmm...wonder what is going on ?

Block sale of shares from Tauraunga Energy Consumer Trust - 20m shares up for grabs at a slight discount

Joshuatree
23-04-2015, 08:26 AM
Not much discount by the looks and we pay1% commission.

dingoNZ
23-04-2015, 08:36 AM
Quoted in the ARF @ $7.74, 4.2% discount from yesterdays price

RTM
23-04-2015, 08:38 AM
Thanks...where are you getting this information ?
Can anyone access ? What am I missing ?

Yes...I have some TPW shares and so am interested.

Joshuatree
23-04-2015, 08:40 AM
My broker rang me .

Joshuatree
23-04-2015, 08:41 AM
Duplicate duplicate...

RTM
23-04-2015, 08:46 AM
Lucky to have such a broker...are you "Portfolio Customers".
Mine won't help significantly unless I make that change. Which I am not inclined to do.

Harvey Specter
23-04-2015, 08:49 AM
Block sale of shares from Tauraunga Energy Consumer Trust - 20m shares up for grabs at a slight discountThey own over $100m so only a partial divestment. Will be interesting to hear the reason where are TECT going to put the cash?

Joshuatree
23-04-2015, 08:49 AM
It pays to have a full service broker and your own no frills online low fee account;)

bull....
23-04-2015, 08:58 AM
selling some at the top? wise some would say

RTM
23-04-2015, 09:11 AM
"On the winding up of the Trust (year 2073) the assets of TECT, which remain, will be distributed for the benefit of Consumers"
http://www.tect.org.nz/overview
I guess by 2073 they would ideally have no shares and just cash to distribute ?
Is that the final outcome planned ?

dingoNZ
23-04-2015, 09:24 AM
They own over $100m so only a partial divestment. Will be interesting to hear the reason where are TECT going to put the cash?


They own around ~24%, they're selling down ~6%, correct, only a partial sell down

Jantar
18-12-2015, 12:24 PM
Interesting announcement from TPW today. https://www.nzx.com/companies/TPW/announcements/275409 It doesn't appear to have affected TPW's price, but IFT have taken a small hit as a result.

Snoopy
18-12-2015, 03:51 PM
Interesting announcement from TPW today. https://www.nzx.com/companies/TPW/announcements/275409 It doesn't appear to have affected TPW's price, but IFT have taken a small hit as a result.

Demerging the wind assets from the hydro assets? Those are meant to be complementary. When the wind blows turn off the hydro tap. When the wind doesn't blow, turn the hydro back on. Taken at face value this proposed demerger makes no sense.

Behind the scenes logic? Infratil are cashed up so as a controlling shareholder they are well placed to support any capital raising required. I wonder if there is something behind the scenes here that Trustpower managment are not telling us? I wonder if Infratil want to sell their stake in Trustpower, but the buyer in the wings doesn't want the 'risky assets'?

SNOOPY

Jantar
18-12-2015, 04:01 PM
There is only a single wind/hydro combination in the whole country that is truly complimentary and that is Trustpower's Mahinerangi wind farm and Waipori Hydro group. These two assets share the same 33Kv lines between Waipori No1 station and the switchyard at Waipori Falls. Until Mahinerangi stage 2 is completed it would be a nightmare to try and separate those two assets. In the rest of the country wind and hydro are competitive rather than complimentary despite what the theory says.

Harvey Specter
18-12-2015, 09:37 PM
Demerging the wind assets from the hydro assets? Those are meant to be complementary. When the wind blows turn off the hydro tap. When the wind doesn't blow, turn the hydro back on. Taken at face value this proposed demerger makes no sense.

Behind the scenes logic? Infratil are cashed up so as a controlling shareholder they are well placed to support any capital raising required. I wonder if there is something behind the scenes here that Trustpower managment are not telling us? I wonder if Infratil want to sell their stake in Trustpower, but the buyer in the wings doesn't want the 'risky assets'?

SNOOPYi think the buyer is M&D investors, KiwiSaver etc. Ift doesn't want low growth so it will focus on the new high growth wind co and sell down boring stable hydro yeild co.

Jantar
19-12-2015, 08:55 AM
I have been thinking a bit more on this overnight to determine whether I should buy a few TPW shares as it and MRP are the only two electricity gentailers I don't hold.
TPW are the minnow of the big 5 but do hold a larger share of the retail market than their share of generation assets. They are able to get away with this through hedging and having ops and maintenance deals with smaller generators like OWL along with guaranteed power purchase options.

Once they split their assets, it is highly likely that the retail side of their operation would stay with their core company, and this would leave them with much greater risk of being short. It would not be in the interest of the wind side to sell the core business any CFDs as wind makes money by buying hedges, not selling them. Similarly, no company in NZ has ever (yet) made a profit from wind and/or solar alone, and that is unlikely to change for the wind offshoot.

My take on this is that the value of the split companies would be less than the value of the present entire company, and so I shall not buy into TPW in advance of this split. I shall hold IFT as my way of still keeping an interest.

Snoopy
19-12-2015, 03:51 PM
Demerging the wind assets from the hydro assets? Those are meant to be complementary. When the wind blows turn off the hydro tap. When the wind doesn't blow, turn the hydro back on. Taken at face value this proposed demerger makes no sense.

Behind the scenes logic? Infratil are cashed up so as a controlling shareholder they are well placed to support any capital raising required. I wonder if there is something behind the scenes here that Trustpower managment are not telling us? I wonder if Infratil want to sell their stake in Trustpower, but the buyer in the wings doesn't want the 'risky assets'?


Another take on the split motive. Maybe the TECT, who still own 27% of the company don't want to finance the windfarm expansion?

SNOOPY

Harvey Specter
19-12-2015, 06:12 PM
Another take on the split motive. Maybe the TECT, who still own 27% of the company don't want to finance the windfarm expansion?

SNOOPYgood point. If they are anything like AECT (75% owner of VCT), they will have no other funds, and unless they are willing to dilute, will require expansion to be from free cash flows (and would still require a growing dividend). Maybe then tension between TECT and IFT has caused the split. If the case, why doesn't IFT set up a new co? My money is still on them divesting TPW (or swapping with TECT).

Hectorplains
30-04-2016, 12:51 PM
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/trustpower-earnings-dip-weak-electricity-demand-marketing-costs-b-188408

Good yield but nothing much else to get excited about.

huxley
14-07-2016, 08:27 PM
Energy Direct is being merged with the trust power brand.. I guess they'll be trying to leverage their internet offer to the former ED customers... Plus simplify the business..

artemis
15-07-2016, 05:31 AM
Good Trustpower presentation from Infratil roadshow here:

https://infratil.com/for-investors/company-presentations/

Zaphod
17-07-2016, 07:53 AM
Energy Direct is being merged with the trust power brand.. I guess they'll be trying to leverage their internet offer to the former ED customers... Plus simplify the business..

I think there's far too many retailers in the energy sector relative to the customer base, so further consolidation is inevitable.

Snow Leopard
05-10-2016, 07:24 PM
https://nzx.com/files/attachments/245232.pdf

Trustpower delay hiving off their Ozzie Windies as a result of the South Australian Blackout.

The report mentioned can be obtained here (https://www.aemo.com.au/Media-Centre/-/media/BE174B1732CB4B3ABB74BD507664B270.ashx) (and does not imply anything about wind power in general or Snowtown in particular).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Voskar56
10-11-2016, 07:09 PM
TPW on the way down $4.59, what's going on ? ASB recommend BUY.

macduffy
10-11-2016, 07:43 PM
Is it the result of the hiving off of the renewables part of the business into a new company - Tilt Renewables (TLT)? If so, the two components may still be finding their relative values.

Sideshow Bob
10-11-2016, 08:24 PM
TPW on the way down $4.59, what's going on ? ASB recommend BUY.

just like Meridian. Craigs have that as a buy but getting sold down.

Snow Leopard
10-11-2016, 08:32 PM
Market has not been kind to any of the electric companies of late. Mercury [Tiger hold] probably faired the least worst.

Gone from $8.30 in late July for the old TPW to a combined $6.73 for the new TPW + Tilt Windmills (still laughing at that one) today.


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Jantar
19-12-2016, 08:53 AM
.....
Gone from $8.30 in late July for the old TPW to a combined $6.73 for the new TPW + Tilt Windmills (still laughing at that one) today.....

And still dropping. It looks like the split was a very bad idea.

Part of that may be because stand alone wind in New Zealand is not profitable without subsidies, while in South Australia, with its large subsidies, wind is very profitable. Wind in NZ is best when combined with fast ramping plant like hydro, so splitting the wind and hydro away from each other is a negative move as far as earnings are concerned.

Trustpower, as a retailer, now has a smaller generation base to call on, and has to hedge a larger proportion of its energy purchases, thus increasing the cost of energy, and reducing its margin. It will be interesting to see what the next full year report looks like.

Discl: Not holding directly, but do hold IFT.

Joshuatree
18-01-2017, 09:52 PM
Was offered some at a discount today; no details as i didn't respond or get round to considering it in the timeframe;but maybe an Insto selling down?Very good yield but that is that a bit dated not factoring in the Tilt split.?

winner69
08-04-2017, 07:44 AM
Trustpower getting plenty of of flak about how they managed water flows from the dam up stream from Edgecumbe

Emotive talk like 'bastards putting profit first' doing the rounds

Whatever not a good look

Jantar
08-04-2017, 08:03 AM
Trustpower getting plenty of of flak about how they managed water flows from the dam up stream from Edgecumbe

Emotive talk like 'bastards putting profit first' doing the rounds

Whatever not a good look
The hydrograph and flow data shows that the operators followed the table discharge pretty well perfectly. There is only a very small amount of water storage available in the Matahina lake and they maximised the available storage, and managed to pass around 100 cumecs less down stream than if the dam had not been there. That is a pretty good result as far as I can see.

The main problem is that the concrete section of the flood bank was undermined, and as with any such structure, once the water starts to pipe through the earth dam it is going to fail. Nothing Trustpower could have done would have helped.

peat
11-04-2017, 11:24 AM
The hydrograph and flow data shows that the operators followed the table discharge pretty well perfectly. There is only a very small amount of water storage available in the Matahina lake and they maximised the available storage, and managed to pass around 100 cumecs less down stream than if the dam had not been there. That is a pretty good result as far as I can see.

The main problem is that the concrete section of the flood bank was undermined, and as with any such structure, once the water starts to pipe through the earth dam it is going to fail. Nothing Trustpower could have done would have helped.

Hi Jantar
I am just curious how your gained your data to support your view.
We're a bit concerned about possible liability here..... that is apart from the high PE and uncovered dividend.

Jantar
11-04-2017, 03:29 PM
Hi Jantar
I am just curious how your gained your data to support your view.
We're a bit concerned about possible liability here..... that is apart from the high PE and uncovered dividend.Flow data is available here http://monitoring.boprc.govt.nz/MonitoredSites/cgi-bin/hydwebserver.cgi/points/details?point=1115

Its a pity I you didn't ask this before I went to work this morning or I could have provided the generation data from Matahina to go with it, but I'll be out of the country for the next 20 days so won't be back at work till after that.

However the graph shows that there was a small reduction in outflow in the early hours of 5th April at the point that the lake level reached minimum control level, and the operators had to reduce outflow slightly to prevent the lake going any lower. There is a small increase in flow during the morning as the lake behind Matihna dam rose, then a much larger but fairly steady rate of rise in flow after the maximum operating level was exceeded and table discharge commenced.

The only part of the rise that I would have any questions about was a reduction in the rate of rise then an increase again just before the peak. This is possibly due to the operators expecting the peak to be near and attempting to hold back a bit more water, then finding the peak was actually higher or later than they expected. We would need to see their operational logs to determine the reason. As that occurred after the stopbank had already given way it was not in any way a cause of the failure.

Discl: Not a holder directly, but do hold IFT.

peat
11-04-2017, 04:11 PM
thanks Jantar
appreciate the response ,

JeremyALD
15-05-2017, 01:41 PM
Pretty good result today. Any thoughts from those who invest in Trust Power. Seems like a good dividend play with fully imputed dives and consistent profit ahead?

dagdaniel1
15-05-2017, 05:19 PM
I got in at the start of this year for 4.70, so pretty happy with the performance. Result was slightly better than what I was expecting. Bit disappointed I didn't go in for more when it dropped to 4.50ish. I'll continue to hold unless it passes 5.50, then I'll have another look.

Jantar
08-06-2017, 02:04 PM
Hi Jantar
I am just curious how your gained your data to support your view.
We're a bit concerned about possible liability here..... that is apart from the high PE and uncovered dividend.


Flow data is available here http://monitoring.boprc.govt.nz/MonitoredSites/cgi-bin/hydwebserver.cgi/points/details?point=1115

Its a pity I you didn't ask this before I went to work this morning or I could have provided the generation data from Matahina to go with it, but I'll be out of the country for the next 20 days so won't be back at work till after that.

However the graph shows that there was a small reduction in outflow in the early hours of 5th April at the point that the lake level reached minimum control level, and the operators had to reduce outflow slightly to prevent the lake going any lower. There is a small increase in flow during the morning as the lake behind Matihna dam rose, then a much larger but fairly steady rate of rise in flow after the maximum operating level was exceeded and table discharge commenced.

The only part of the rise that I would have any questions about was a reduction in the rate of rise then an increase again just before the peak. This is possibly due to the operators expecting the peak to be near and attempting to hold back a bit more water, then finding the peak was actually higher or later than they expected. We would need to see their operational logs to determine the reason. As that occurred after the stopbank had already given way it was not in any way a cause of the failure.

Discl: Not a holder directly, but do hold IFT.

Further details have been made available by IPENZ
https://www.ipenz.nz/home/news-and-publications/news-article/2017/06/05/matahina-dam-performance-in-the-april-2017-rangitaiki-floods

huxley
27-07-2017, 09:51 AM
Well, it looks like TPW has drifted happily passed $5.50, in fact it looks like they're heading back towards the pre-demerger price.

TPW: $5.84
TLT: $2.12
Total: $7.96

JeremyALD
27-07-2017, 09:57 AM
Well, it looks like TPW has drifted happily passed $5.50, in fact it looks like they're heading back towards the pre-demerger price.

TPW: $5.84
TLT: $2.12
Total: $7.96






Trustpower is having a great year, driven by favorable conditions and a successful bundling strategy. Seems to be a solid dividend play as well. Happy that I bought some after the last result.

Joshuatree
18-12-2017, 04:14 PM
Trustpower in the running to buy Vocus nz along with 2 degrees and TPG kicking the tyres. data room opened last week and first round bids due in Feb.

Joshuatree
22-12-2017, 09:21 AM
Trustpower announces sale of GSP Energy (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/312400).. Over a 100% gain on this investment by the looks. Building cash to buy Vocus nz?

percy
22-12-2017, 11:13 AM
Trustpower announces sale of GSP Energy (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/312400).. Over a 100% gain on this investment by the looks. Building cash to buy Vocus nz?

I liked the announcement so much I added to my wife's MEL holding.!

tobo
09-01-2018, 12:26 PM
On 7 Dec, 2017
announced

JOINT BID FOR THE REMAINING SHARES OF KING COUNTRY ENERGY LIMITED

King Country Energy Holdings Limited ("KCEHL"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of
Trustpower Limited, currently holds approximately 65.07% of the ordinary
shares of King Country Energy Limited ("KCE"). KCEHL has entered into an
implementation agreement (the "Implementation Agreement") with the trustees
of the King Country Electric Power Trust ("KCEPT"), the holder of
approximately 19.98% of the ordinary shares of KCE, pursuant to which KCEHL
and KCEPT formed an unincorporated joint venture to acquire the balance of
the ordinary shares of KCE.

In accordance with the Implementation Agreement, KCEHL and KCEPT have today
given notice of intention to make a full takeover offer to purchase all of
the ordinary shares in KCE at $5.00 per share.

Today's announcement states 65.09% ownership (ie 0.02% change).

I notice that SP hasn't changed much from 7 Dec (small increase) and slight drop today. Presume the market thinks this is small potatoes.

Joshuatree
25-01-2018, 11:13 AM
I used to be a trust power customer but switched to genesis because i use gas too. A friend joined trustpower recently and got a large quality smart tv as an inducement. Now TECT who own shares in trust power and give an annual chq to all trust power customers of re $360-$400 are proposing a winding up with each customer getting a $2500 chq soon followed by 5 more annual cheqs before the trust ceases. Trustpower are taking legal advice and dont seem too happy atp.

huxley
25-01-2018, 11:16 AM
I used to be a trust power customer but switched to genesis because i use gas too. A friend joined trustpower recently and got a large quality smart tv as an inducement. Now TECT who own shares in trust power and give an annual chq to all trust power customers of re $360-$400 are proposing a winding up with each customer getting a $2500 chq soon followed by 5 more annual cheqs before the trust ceases. Trustpower are taking legal advice and dont seem too happy atp.

I don’t think it’s all trustpower customers... just customers in the Tauranga area

Jaa
25-01-2018, 02:42 PM
The wind up of TECT will cost Trustpower heaps. Power customers in Tauranga only pay more to receive their power from Trustpower because they know they will get $496 back from TECT (you need to be a customer of Trustpower to get the TECT dividend).

Using the numbers in the BOP Times (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/bay-of-plenty-times/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503343&objectid=11981381) article today and since Trustpower still ends up cheaper, lets be generous and assume they only take 80% of the TECT dividend as "super" profits.

58,000 Trustpower consumers get the TECT dividend x $496/year = $28.77m * 80% = $23.01m

That's quite a hit for Trustpower to meet the market, no wonder the shares are down today.

Also a bad look for a cornerstone shareholder to express such blatant doubt on their own investment.


He said the proposal was being driven by uncertainty in the energy sector, including technology changes like household solar power units, industry structural changes like company acquisitions and politicians making regulatory changes.

''We think there is uncertainty. We are not worried about Trustpower - it is more about the whole sector,'' he said.

horus1
26-01-2018, 07:50 PM
Could not agree more with the Trust. I think the way the rebates have been allocated has been very close to illegal for years. All consumers in the old Tuaranga lines area should have got it regardless of who supplied the energy.

Jaa
30-01-2018, 04:31 PM
Could not agree more with the Trust. I think the way the rebates have been allocated has been very close to illegal for years. All consumers in the old Tuaranga lines area should have got it regardless of who supplied the energy.

Agree, if the trustees really wanted to help the people of Tauranga they would ensure all power consumers in the region get the cheques not just Trustpower consumers. Like the Auckland and Hamilton energy trusts.

But that was the dodgy deal done at the time. A further even dodgier deal to remove competition was done to include the customers of the then council owned Tauranga Electricity Limited (TEL) as part of Trustpower's buy out of TEL. The council used the money to buy all those faded cobblestones around the CBD, replacing a dividend producing asset with depreciating ones :(

At least TECT beneficiaries have benefited from this rort via their shareholding in Trustpower. Though TECT have diluted their shareholding over time and Infratil has benefited even more.

How well those beneficiaries respond when they realise they are being offered only $4,000 for $15,000 of assets is anyone's guess.

Would prefer the money is used to help people pay their power bills and under-ground power lines etc, which was the purpose of the trust and TEPB before it.

blocker3
30-01-2018, 05:38 PM
I live in Tauranga. When we moved house in 2016 we changed power company's . My calculations was that another power company was cheaper to the effect that we did not need a christmas savings plan. Good on to the people that enjoy the christmas chq.

hardt
21-03-2018, 04:38 PM
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/315847 - There we go, TECT withdraws the proposal and we can all go back to normal.

huxley
21-03-2018, 08:53 PM
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/315847 - There we go, TECT withdraws the proposal and we can all go back to normal.

Thank ****

Joshuatree
22-03-2018, 09:29 AM
TECT were poor at marketing and getting their message across, Trustpower had multiple ads and spin and made it emotive to boot. So we keep on subsidising trust power who are a listed company and only care about profits and put minimal into the B.O.P and Infratil the majority owner absolutely diddley squat, what a rort !. The Tauranga communities have been screwed imo.

bull....
22-03-2018, 12:53 PM
TECT were poor at marketing and getting their message across, Trustpower had multiple ads and spin and made it emotive to boot. So we keep on subsidising trust power who are a listed company and only care about profits and put minimal into the B.O.P and Infratil the majority owner absolutely diddley squat, what a rort !. The Tauranga communities have been screwed imo.

they could sell there tlit shares and use that money for funds in the community or have they not thought of that?

huxley
27-03-2018, 05:14 PM
Behind a pay wall on both The Australian and the NBR, but it seems TPW is more likely to be successful in purchasing Vocus NZ

Cricketfan
24-04-2018, 09:39 AM
Looks like nobody will be purchasing Vocus NZ: https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180424/pdf/43tfjnv6r0lk0x.pdf

stealthmaster
29-06-2019, 12:37 PM
making big gains recently

Hectorplains
29-06-2019, 12:50 PM
making big gains recently

Yielding 4.6%. There have been good gains for all the dividend paying infrastructure stocks.

RTM
12-07-2019, 09:43 AM
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TPW/337592/303488.pdf

Not ideal. Topped up a few weeks ago @ 691. Thought I was clever until today.

RTM
10-02-2020, 09:57 AM
Hopefully it continues to be a boring steady as you go component of my portfolio.
2.76% of my portfolio.

peat
10-02-2020, 01:07 PM
How does it compare in its types and %'s of generation to Contact
Contact had a poor interim result out today. They are blaming NZ aging gas infrastructure and associated price rises.
And yet they have over 80% renewable energy supplies. So one might think this wouldn't hurt them so much!

RTM
10-02-2020, 02:22 PM
https://www.trustpower.co.nz/our-assets-and-capability/power-generation

Nearly all Hydro. Yes, the contact result was a wee bit concerning.

turnip
10-02-2020, 03:50 PM
How does it compare in its types and %'s of generation to Contact
Contact had a poor interim result out today. They are blaming NZ aging gas infrastructure and associated price rises.
And yet they have over 80% renewable energy supplies. So one might think this wouldn't hurt them so much!



I think TPW and CEN have both had the same basic problem: lower than expected hydro generation. To cover customer commitments TPW had to buy on the market at a time when prices were high, and CEN had to run its gas generation at a time when fuel prices were high.

winner69
17-02-2020, 07:44 AM
Profit downgrade #2 this time around

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TPW/348483/316826.pdf

Preston
17-02-2020, 10:51 AM
Looks like some good buying again coming up around the 6.90 ?

11029
11030

peat
17-02-2020, 12:16 PM
Looks like some good buying again coming up around the 6.90 ?

11029
11030


a breakthrough would imply another 50c I reckon

Preston
17-02-2020, 05:05 PM
Yeah I think thats a fair assessment. Breaking the low of the pattern could see the area of 6.40-6.50

BlackPeter
06-03-2020, 01:17 PM
Gentailers should be easier to predict than many other stocks, so how did the analysts do with predicting TPW's performance over the last 12 months?

TPW's share price peaked in February 2019 at $6.53 and analysts (consensus) forecast for February 2020 was $6.03, which means analysts predicted the SP to drop over the last 12 months by 8%. They have been wrong - the TPW share price in February 2020 actually peaked at $7.55, i.e. instead of the forecasted drop of 8% did punters get a 16% rise. A clear fail for the analysts, but nice for the punters who didn't trusted them and bought anyway :);

Looking into the consensus buy recommendation - it was in February 2019 a weak "HOLD"(4.6/10) - i.e. analysts said that the share will slightly underperform the NZX. This prediction was correct. NZX went up by 21% and TPW went up by 16%. Close enough.

I am doing this exercise as well with other NZX listed stocks - the overview is here:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11721-How-good-are-the-forecasts-of-stockmarket-analysts

12 stocks checked so far (checking for each consensus and buy recommendation);
Consensus shareprice forecasts correct: 1/12; analyst hitrate: 8.3%
Consensus recommendation vs NZX50 correct: 4/12; analyst hitrate: 33%

Cadalac123
06-03-2020, 06:35 PM
Lmao appalling results from the analysts who are heavily driven by alterior motives and just trade with too many restrictions and metrics

waikare
07-03-2020, 06:11 PM
On a different note: received a newsletter from Trustpower a few days back advising, power prices for Tauranga and Western Bay of Plenty consumers are be reduced from 1st April.

horus1
08-03-2020, 11:16 AM
That is because the lines charges which are regulated by the CC have been reduced for 5 years.Not energy prices.

waikare
08-03-2020, 06:08 PM
That is because the lines charges which are regulated by the CC have been reduced for 5 years.Not energy prices.

Thanks for that, horus1

BlackPeter
11-03-2020, 08:15 AM
Some nice person sold me a handful of TPW shares at 6.15. Very nice, cheers - but wondering whether I could have some more to completely fill my order?

see weed
12-05-2020, 03:02 PM
Some nice person sold me a handful of TPW shares at 6.15. Very nice, cheers - but wondering whether I could have some more to completely fill my order?
Congratulations, good buying. Did you pick up any on the 23/3/20? Very tightly held company. I picked up a few at 6.55 a week ago, but what an effort. Wouldn't mind getting a few more if anyone out there wants to sell me some around 6.80 to 6.90.

BlackPeter
12-05-2020, 04:40 PM
Congratulations, good buying. Did you pick up any on the 23/3/20? Very tightly held company. I picked up a few at 6.55 a week ago, but what an effort. Wouldn't mind getting a few more if anyone out there wants to sell me some around 6.80 to 6.90.

Well, yes - completed the purchase a couple of days after above post (10/3 and 13/3). But no, not interested in selling them now to you - sorry :):

see weed
26-05-2020, 08:40 PM
Well, yes - completed the purchase a couple of days after above post (10/3 and 13/3). But no, not interested in selling them now to you - sorry :):
That's ok. Have bought another 12 blocks since then, but boy you got to pay top dollar, very tightly held stock. Pretty happy with my little stash, they are in the green $10,800 today, not too bad for 3 weeks. Anyway results tomorrow, and hoping for a nice big dividend announcement:).ps It should make up for the loss I made on SKT yesterday:t_up:.

see weed
27-05-2020, 09:20 AM
Dividend down 1.5c and no special this time around. Can't complain, still getting 15.5c div in June:).

see weed
09-06-2020, 10:16 AM
Just a little reminder. Ex div on 18/6/20. There is 6.5 buss. days left to buy TPW for a 15.5c div.:)

see weed
18-06-2020, 09:16 AM
Blo.dy shareies. Put 6100 to sell at 7.08 . 54 have sold, about 15 transactions. At this rate will have about 25 pages of transactions. They are all 1,2 and 3 shares at a time:confused:.

Joshuatree
18-06-2020, 09:20 AM
Looks like you may have hit the new wave of little reef fishers, Sharesies, Hatch etc. Many thousands of them out there buying as little as single shares. They will have to compete with the bots. Ive heard re 95% of traders lose money but with trading a single share multiple times maybe they will be on a steep learning curve, cheaply , we end up with a whole new bunch of young savvy traders. Just what i dont need :scared:as a 95% investor (in NZ)

see weed
18-06-2020, 09:25 AM
Looks like you may have hit the new wave of little reef fishers, Sharesies, Hatch etc.
It is all good, the rest have gone and only about 20 transactions, so am happy about that. From memory I think about 25 transactions fit on one page:)

BlackPeter
18-06-2020, 09:28 AM
Blo.dy shareies. Put 6100 to sell at 7.08 . 54 have sold, about 15 transactions. At this rate will have about 25 pages of transactions. They are all 1,2 and 3 shares at a time:confused:.

Just reduce your price to say $6.10 (which is close to my average buy in price) and I am happy to take them all and in one transaction out off your hands ;):

Joshuatree
18-06-2020, 10:11 AM
Just a little reminder. Ex div on 18/6/20. There is 6.5 buss. days left to buy TPW for a 15.5c div.:)

Where did you learn to pole dance like that?:D

see weed
19-06-2020, 12:15 AM
Just reduce your price to say $6.10 (which is close to my average buy in price) and I am happy to take them all and in one transaction out off your hands ;):
Thanks for the offer, but don't need to. Got $7.10c for the second lot sold.

see weed
19-06-2020, 12:18 AM
Where did you learn to pole dance like that?:D
My Flatmate years ago was a Pro:).

Sideshow Bob
19-06-2020, 09:17 AM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12340602

Not good results for Trustpower (or Contact)

BlackPeter
19-06-2020, 09:29 AM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12340602

Not good results for Trustpower (or Contact)

From memory - both Trustpower as well as Contact are paying (compared to other Gentailers) a rather high dividend yield. Sort of wondering how sustainable a negative correlation with customer satisfaction might be?

see weed
19-06-2020, 01:37 PM
From memory - both Trustpower as well as Contact are paying (compared to other Gentailers) a rather high dividend yield. Sort of wondering how sustainable a negative correlation with customer satisfaction might be?
It doesn't matter about the customers, if you have shares in all the gentailers, then you got them by the balls:). They only going to change to another company that you already own:D. I am very happy with TPW, started buying in on 5/5/20, about six weeks ago and now they are going to pay me $7500+ div:cool:. Sold half of them today and yesterday and the remaining still $3500+ in the green.:t_up: My nephews father-in-law was rubbishing TPW last week, and I had a nice warm internal glow thinking, if it is bad for the customer then must be good for the shareholder;).

Leftfield
19-06-2020, 01:41 PM
......:t_up: My nephews father-in-law was rubbishing TPW last week, and I had a nice warm internal glow thinking, if it is bad for the customer then must be good for the shareholder;).

Have you no shame!! lol.

see weed
19-06-2020, 01:51 PM
Have you no shame!! lol.
No shame here. Served 5 years solitary confinement on those Blo.dy power stations doing my apprenticeship, and on a low wage. Time for payback:p.

BlackPeter
19-06-2020, 01:54 PM
It doesn't matter about the customers, if you have shares in all the gentailers, then you got them by the balls:). They only going to change to another company that you already own:D. I am very happy with TPW, started buying in on 5/5/20, about six weeks ago and now they are going to pay me $7500+ div:cool:. Sold half of them today and yesterday and the remaining still $3500+ in the green.:t_up: My nephews father-in-law was rubbishing TPW last week, and I had a nice warm internal glow thinking, if it is bad for the customer then must be good for the shareholder;).

I know. Must say as well, that I noticed that it is often not the companies with the best customer service but the companies with the best marketing department which are doing really well. Particularly the big ones (no matter, which utility) find it easy to get away with lousy customer service.

Maybe this even is what makes them big and successful. It is sad, but this is the way it seems to be.

Discl: holding TPW and not too worried from a share holder perspective. However - not one of their customers.

Grimy
19-06-2020, 04:14 PM
Funnily enough we were TPW customers until recently, and are now with Contact!
I found TPW customer service people to be brilliant on the couple of occasions I had to contact them, and the same with CEN when I had a query soon after changing to them.
Neither were the cheapest option (but not far off at the time), but the customer service kept me happy with them.
I am a TPW and MCY shareholder.

Zaphod
21-06-2020, 02:10 PM
For us, TPW is cheaper for residential gas supply, however electricity was far more expensive. This is outside of any introductory deal however.

see weed
25-11-2020, 11:21 AM
Just a little reminder TPW goes ex div tomorrow. If you want the 17c div you must buy in before 5pm today:t_up::t_up::t_up::).

Southern Lad
08-12-2020, 06:55 PM
The AustralianSuoer takeover proposal for IFT has some interesting implications for TPW if it succeeds. It looks like TPW is the only IFT asset that AustralianSuoer doesn’t want.

The distribution of TPW shares to IFT shareholders opens up the share register with the disappearance of a majority shareholder. Presumably a fair few TPW shares get flicked on by IFT shareholders, putting downward pressure on the share price. Or is this an opportunity for someone else to control TPW - who are the likely contenders?

What future direction does TPW take free from IFT’s control?

Marilyn Munroe
23-12-2020, 02:52 AM
Crrikey! Another Neu Zeelund generator in trouble with the regulator.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-22/wind-farm-fined-million-over-breaches-before-statewide-blackout/13007234

Trustpowers South Australian subsidiary(1) Snowtown Wind Farm Stage 2 fined $AU1 million dollars. Apparently the generator trip levels in low grid voltage events were set incorrectly and contributed to a state wide blackout.

South Australia is an enthusiastic implementer of environmental wokeism. Gung ho on wind power and anti fossil fuel generation.

Will Kiwi Energy Minister Megan Woods have learnings from this incident about what happens when you go all in on fickle wind power and lack the grunt provided by fossil fuelled baseload generation to keep the lights burning?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

(1) Since sold, not sure if the new owner cops the fine.

kiora
23-12-2020, 03:40 AM
One could always read the announcement directly and not rely on the media
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/tlt.nzx-365519/

winner69
18-05-2021, 07:56 AM
So Trustpower’s F22 earnings in line with F21

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TPW/372340/346177.pdf

Davexl
17-06-2021, 04:43 PM
Anyone know what's going on with SP drop?
Or is this ongoing drop due to TPW going ex div on the 10th June. (Usually price drop stabilizes not long after ex date)

Has there been a "fail" in due diligence for possible sale of their Retail assets? (Insider trading ?)

Davexl
21-06-2021, 10:02 AM
Correction!

TPW announces conditional sale of its Retail Business

Just as well I bought a bunch at $8 before they bounced!

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/374217

kiora
21-06-2021, 10:05 AM
It will be interesting what is in the detail for Trustpower
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/tpw.nzx-374217/
"An electricity hedge structure has been agreed to support the customer retail demand. More details
of this are provided in the separate Investor Presentation released along with this statement. The
terms of this hedge underpin Trustpower’s earnings for the medium term and the initial price has
been set taking advantage of current firm wholesale prices."

Davexl
21-06-2021, 11:01 AM
Energy hedge

When the transaction completes Trustpower will enter into a new energy hedge (CfD) with Mercury

•Arms length pricing independent of the retail sale gives increased price certainty.

•Allows for an orderly transition between a bi-lateral hedge and a portfolio of hedges/sales into the C&I market.

•Volume shaped by season and time of day and price set at mutually agreed locations and with prevailing peaking factors.

•Trustpower believes that the wholesale energy market is sufficiently efficient that as these hedges roll off it can place its generation into market, or enter into further hedges, at fair prices.

Jantar / Anyone - Can you explain how the bi-lateral hedge transitions into the C&I market? TIA...

Jantar
21-06-2021, 03:16 PM
...

Jantar / Anyone - Can you explain how the bi-lateral hedge transitions into the C&I market? TIA...
Without knowing their existing hedge contracts it is difficult to comment. I suspect that TPR and MCY each have hedges with the other, possibly in the form of swaptions. But TPR probably has sold its own hedges to some C&I customers, and these would be separate from its retail book. As TPR will not have any retail going forward it's current buy hedges from MCY would roll off and be replaced with sell hedges to MCY.

Unless specifically provided for in the sales agreement, there is nothing stopping TPR from concentrating on selling to C&I customers going forward.

Davexl
21-06-2021, 04:48 PM
Without knowing their existing hedge contracts it is difficult to comment. I suspect that TPR and MCY each have hedges with the other, possibly in the form of swaptions. But TPR probably has sold its own hedges to some C&I customers, and these would be separate from its retail book. As TPR will not have any retail going forward it's current buy hedges from MCY would roll off and be replaced with sell hedges to MCY.

Unless specifically provided for in the sales agreement, there is nothing stopping TPR from concentrating on selling to C&I customers going forward.

Thank you once again - TPW does intend to sell to C&I customers only, just wish we had a bit more certainty...