Comvita - CVT

[Ogg]

New 52 week low.

Surely below take over territory now. Same valuation as Capilano Honey. CVT was 4 times larger just a couple years ago.

[Ogg]

Getting the boot from the NZX50. Replaced by Vista.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CVT/328524/292590.pdf

CVT now joined by QEX and Foley Wines in the small caps, lol.

[winner69]

Stupid index ......almost the equivalent of buying high flyers near their peak and selling the losers and crystallising losses

[Beagle]

Stupid index ......almost the equivalent of buying high flyers near their peak and selling the losers and crystallising losses

Went up $2 to ~ $12 when it went into the NZX50 index in June 2016 and probably deserves to go down $2 on its exit and might be somewhere near fair value then but probably still about $1 overpriced based on sensible metrics for a cyclical heavily weather dependent agricultural stock.

[Ogg]

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/97386/rodney-dickens-thinks-he-spots-bust-about-unfold-manuka-honey-market-after-strong-boom

Is this about to go sub $5?

[winner69]

Mr Craig explains what happens to the share price when his company gets kicked out of the NZX50

Nothing has changed insofar as the company itself ...that’s good news

Announcement quite funny really. Wonder what’s he thinking

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CVT/328586/292658.pdf

[kiwidollabill]

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/97386/rodney-dickens-thinks-he-spots-bust-about-unfold-manuka-honey-market-after-strong-boom

Is this about to go sub $5?

I think so, but not quite for the reasons in this article.

Two notes:
- Take anything published by Airborne Honey with a grain of salt, their story matches their agenda
- The industry is sh**t scared about the Australians, they are part of a number of forces (most self inflicted) which are reducing Manuka to a commodity.

[Balance]

Mr Craig explains what happens to the share price when his company gets kicked out of the NZX50

Nothing has changed insofar as the company itself ...that’s good news

Announcement quite funny really. Wonder what’s he thinking

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CVT/328586/292658.pdf

Did he by any chance explained what happened to the share price when CVT was included in the index?

Probably not, eh? Hard one to explain as nothing had changed?

[Beagle]

Mr Craig explains what happens to the share price when his company gets kicked out of the NZX50

Nothing has changed insofar as the company itself ...that’s good news

Announcement quite funny really. Wonder what’s he thinking

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CVT/328586/292658.pdf


Funny how he doesn't mention that the reason their company SP is falling is that the market has woken up to the fact that this is nothing but a cyclical agricultural company producing a somewhat cool product BUT a VAST amount of the companies previous growth predictions and profit forecasts have been wildly inaccurate...so inaccurate in my opinion as to very seriously undermine the credibility of the company, its management and the board. I take their profit forecasts with a grain of salt and believe this company is uninvest able. Really their forecasting has been so completely abysmal they should do everyone a favour and keep their mouth shut until the result comes out.

[janner]

so inaccurate in my opinion as to very seriously undermine the credibility of the company, its management and the board. I take their profit forecasts with a grain of salt and believe this company is uninvest able. .

Once bitten eh ???? But IMHO you are correct.. :-)))

[Ogg]

Wow, 1.1m shares crossed at $4.72!

[hardt]

On WeChat I can see A LOT rushing to get CVT products, in similar fashion to that of A2 IF in 2017 ( not the same volume )
This brand is a favourite amongst the class of Chinese with mega disposable incomes and an appetite for NZ goods.

Will always be volatile due to being very dependant on mother nature, but the brand is a significant player with a lot of momentum.
The intangible value of this company continues to grow even through poor harvests over the next 5-10 years.

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12193867

Harvest a mixed bag so far - guess that means better than 2016 & 2017?

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/business/plain-stupid-manuka-honey-explosion-leaves-bees-starving/

But plenty of players now in the industry - classic goldmine scenario attracting hordes of miners (minimal barriers to entry).

https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/rural-news/rural-opinion/common-sense-needed-in-honey-sector

Gold rush mentality.

[BlackPeter]

Average EPS over the last 6 years (including good and bad years) was 27 cents.

This is a plain vanilla agricultural stock with no moat, increasing competition and (proven) inept management. Makes you wonder why punters are still happy to pay for this company a PE of 17 ...

[Balance]

Average EPS over the last 6 years (including good and bad years) was 27 cents.

This is a plain vanilla agricultural stock with no moat, increasing competition and (proven) inept management. Makes you wonder why punters are still happy to pay for this company a PE of 17 ...

Takeover.

It will not happen overnight but it will happen?

Maybe when sp is $2.50.

[BlackPeter]

Takeover.

It will not happen overnight but it will happen?

Maybe when sp is $2.50.

Actually - I think that's where the SP would belong. Might even buy some myself at that price (thogh $2 would look better - PE of 8 would give you a bit of safety margin).

[Beagle]

Average EPS over the last 6 years (including good and bad years) was 27 cents.

This is a plain vanilla agricultural stock with no moat, increasing competition and (proven) inept management. Makes you wonder why punters are still happy to pay for this company a PE of 17 ...

Fully deserves a no growth PE of half that in my opinion what with management's forecasting ability being no better than a blind man throwing darts at a dartboard. One of their skin care products I use actually works pretty well...if it weren't for that I'd come right out and call them nothing but snake oil merchants.
Agree with you on the $2 thing but I'd want to see management changes starting at the top.

[whatsup]

Fully deserves a no growth PE of half that in my opinion what with management's forecasting ability being no better than a blind man throwing darts at a dartboard. One of their skin care products I use actually works pretty well...if it weren't for that I'd come right out and call them nothing but snake oil merchants.
Agree with you on the $2 thing but I'd want to see management changes starting at the top.

Not forgetting they have a reasonable holding in SEA which imho is worthless atm !!

[Ogg]

No buyers left, lol?

[Balance]

No buyers left, lol?

Profit downgrade coming? CVT's sp has had an uncanny ability to predict profit downgrades over the last few years!

No glowing assessment so far out there of a fantastic year for any honey producer :

Honey glut

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/the-country/news/article.cfm?c_id=16&objectid=12185247

Scandal could impact if industry is not careful

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12199800

Someone rings the alarm bell

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/97386/rodney-dickens-thinks-he-spots-bust-about-unfold-manuka-honey-market-after-strong-boom

[kiora]

Anecdotally poor season for UMF manuka honey

[BlackPeter]

Anecdotally poor season for UMF manuka honey

Impossible!

Didn't they say that after 2 bad seasons they find this year a different excuse for bad performance?

And Comvitas CFO stated in the annual report explicitly that they have all the ingredients to deliver in FY2019:

10298

What a pity she was just acting ...

[kiwidollabill]

Word from the international markets isnt that great either. Being undercut by 20-30% by 'Australian Manuka'. PE still way out of wack IMHO

[Balance]

Word from the international markets isnt that great either. Being undercut by 20-30% by 'Australian Manuka'. PE still way out of wack IMHO

Be surprising if Comvita does not come out with a profit downgrade before it reports in around 2 weeks' time?

http://gisborneherald.co.nz/opinion/3945099-135/levy-vote-critical-for-apiculture-and

News certainly not great for the manuka honey industry as a whole.

"All of this comes at a time of a rather poor season, due to weather events combined with lower honey prices and tougher standards around the definition of manuka honey — leading to financial stress for some businesses and a lowering of business confidence in parts of the industry."

Last year's (2018) summer hot weather was blamed for the poor manuka honey harvest.

If anything, this year, 2019, the weather has been even hotter - https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/110346191/extreme-weather-is-shattering-records-in-2019--and-were-only-a-few-weeks-in

Combined that with the explosion of beehives all attempting to extract what little honey is being produced by the manuka plants, things must be looking rather grim for Comvita.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12190479

[Beagle]

Word from the international markets isnt that great either. Being undercut by 20-30% by 'Australian Manuka'. PE still way out of wack IMHO

Agree 100% with what you and Balance have said. Buying CVT at the current price looks like a recipe for a very sour taste left in one's mouth down the track.

[Sideshow Bob]

This is when you know you have your strategy wrong...…(sorry I was standing up when I took the photo)

10315

[Balance]

This is when you know you have your strategy wrong...…(sorry I was standing up when I took the photo)

10315

At $33.39, still way more expensive than all the other brands out there - but a huge discount to the RRP of $62.

Says the Comvita brand 'magic' is fast dissipating.

[Sideshow Bob]

Nothing 'magic' about the brand when you can buy it in Pak N Save, thrown in a bin! Or that it is the best channel that you have for your product!

And you also know that P&S won't lose out of it!

[Balance]

Nothing 'magic' about the brand when you can buy it in Pak N Save, thrown in a bin! Or that it is the best channel that you have for your product!

And you also know that P&S won't lose out of it!

Talked to a beekeeper just yesterday who manages over a few tonnes of manuka honey from the North and some key points:

1. His company has had a good season compared to the last 2 seasons.

2. The testing regime for manuka honey is a 'mess'.

3. There is plenty of low quality manuka honey around still.

4. Comvita is still the industry standard as far as the China market is concerned but other players are making inroads and this should accelerate when the manuka honey testing regime is properly implemented.

5. 2 & 3 have resulted in a flood of blended manuka honey in the market.

Read into the above what you will.

Happy not to be in CVT!

[silu]

Their website is "under maintenance". During the day? What is is? 2009?

[kiwidollabill]

https://www.hill-laboratories.com/about-us/news/working-with-mpi-to-improve-honey-sampling-protocols/

[Balance]

https://www.hill-laboratories.com/about-us/news/working-with-mpi-to-improve-honey-sampling-protocols/

Hope they get it sorted out before it's too late.

The Aussies are starting to target this market in volume and they have a lot of land (and bees) over there!

[Blendy]

What's going on with Comvita? My numbers are GREEN! What is happening?? And the current buy price is $5.22 even though the last sell was $5.13! I haven't seen any exciting news....

[Beagle]

What's going on with Comvita? My numbers are GREEN! What is happening?? And the current buy price is $5.22 even though the last sell was $5.13! I haven't seen any exciting news....

Up over $5.20 on a "whopping" 1100 shares Blendy. Maybe word is leaking out that the Beagle thinks their natural Derma Cream is good stuff :)

[Blendy]

Up over $5.20 on a "whopping" 1100 shares Blendy. Maybe word is leaking out that the Beagle thinks their natural Derma Cream is good stuff :)

Ah yes, i didn't pay close enough attention to the detail.

Yes their derma cream is good stuff. i used to sell a lot of their original version years ago when i was in health products retail.

[Ogg]

Should of sold some MPG and got some CVT at $4.36, ah Balance?


Seriously tho, it's up because it seems to move the most this time of year. Results are due soon with the outlook of the honey season. Also, most of the NZX50 funds have all sold out. It was cheap at $200m MC. Global markets have rebounded and this was playing catch up. It's probably a bit of a leaky ship too. Spread and volume was low so even small buy backs would push the price up. Maybe that 'take over' buyer is back again as it was around this time of year that they started looking into it.

In the last 12 months there's now another 80m people on the planet, who's gonna feed these people. You can get window frames anywhere.

I stand by my judgement, that this is a good company that has been around for decades and will continue to still be around for years to come.

Disc, zero holdings.

[Balance]

Should of sold some MPG and got some CVT at $4.36, ah Balance?


Seriously tho, it's up because it seems to move the most this time of year. Results are due soon with the outlook of the honey season. Also, most of the NZX50 funds have all sold out. It was cheap at $200m MC. Global markets have rebounded and this was playing catch up. It's probably a bit of a leaky ship too. Spread and volume was low so even small buy backs would push the price up. Maybe that 'take over' buyer is back again as it was around this time of year that they started looking into it.

In the last 12 months there's now another 80m people on the planet, who's gonna feed these people. You can get window frames anywhere.

I stand by my judgement, that this is a good company that has been around for decades and will continue to still be around for years to come.

Disc, zero holdings.

Still waiting for little downside at $6 and $10 takeover price?

[Beagle]

Ah yes, i didn't pay close enough attention to the detail.

Yes their derma cream is good stuff. i used to sell a lot of their original version years ago when i was in health products retail.

Thanks, its good to get a second opinion. I am happy to use it as necessary but in terms of this company as an investment, as I've mentioned earlier in this thread I think management have a LOT of work to do to restore credibility.

[Ogg]

Will not even let my dog own this puppy.

What you gotta remember is that A2 was once like this.

A2 milk is just as much as snake oil as Manuka. Both are scientifically questionable.

The problem is that the execution on CVT has been terrible. It's suffered from a huge industry bubble. There were winners but also just as many losers.

What it needed is a series of mergers and acquisitions, with all the competitors you've been talking about. More capital is needed. Also need to get trust back from the public. Grow the nurseries. Involve government to sort out regulation. Get the standards right. Improve the branding even more etc.

That's why private equity is so interested in this, as they see the long term potential. That's why Capilano Honey was bought out recently. There's a solid export industry here unlike MPG where Bain is only interested in a 'flick off deal'. They are debt vultures. Sure, you could probably make just as much, if not more, betting on MPG. The point is that CVT is a solid business long term. MPG is just another manufacturing business, likely to fail in an ever increasing globalized world.

Long term CVT is a winner. Short term MPG is probably more of a winner. The problem is that retail holders never do well short term.

[Balance]

What you gotta remember is that A2 was once like this.

A2 milk is just as much as snake oil as Manuka. Both are scientifically questionable.

The problem is that the execution on CVT has been terrible. It's suffered from a huge industry bubble. There were winners but also just as many losers.

What it needed is a series of mergers and acquisitions, with all the competitors you've been talking about. More capital is needed. Also need to get trust back from the public. Grow the nurseries. Involve government to sort out regulation. Get the standards right. Improve the branding even more etc.

That's why private equity is so interested in this, as they see the long term potential. That's why Capilano Honey was bought out recently. There's a solid export industry here unlike MPG where Bain is only interested in a 'flick off deal'. They are debt vultures. Sure, you could probably make just as much, if not more, betting on MPG. The point is that CVT is a solid business long term. MPG is just another manufacturing business, likely to fail in an ever increasing globalized world.

Long term CVT is a winner. Short term MPG is probably more of a winner. The problem is that retail holders never do well short term.

Who in their right mind will own shares in companies with management who do not deliver on their promises - year after year - unless there is the very strong prospect of takeover.

CVT and PEB are two of the prime examples of failed management, and companies which have already failed in their business strategy and have no alternative strategy save to pay themselves big fees and big salaries.

[Beagle]

Who in their right mind will own shares in companies with management who do not deliver on their promises - year after year - unless there is the very strong prospect of takeover.

CVT and PEB are two of the prime examples of failed management, and companies which have already failed in their business strategy and have no alternative strategy save to pay themselves big fees and big salaries.

I would go further and say management should simply shut up completely about trying to project the future, (profitability or lack thereof or sales) as its abundantly clear they have no idea whatsoever.
Not since the debacles of the likes of Ariadne and Equitycorp can I recall a worse example of woefully inept forecasting year after year after year...just throw a dart at a dartboard, whatever number it hits, if its black that's the profit forecast or red the loss lol
Seriously, its way beyond a joke and I think this company is un-investable.

[Ogg]

Who in their right mind will own shares in companies with management who do not deliver on their promises - year after year - unless there is the very strong prospect of takeover.

CVT and PEB are two of the prime examples of failed management, and companies which have already failed in their business strategy and have no alternative strategy save to pay themselves big fees and big salaries.

Well yeah, you're right, that's why the stock is so cheap.

The point is that this has "A2 potential". Just look at the history of A2 in the beginning, it was a complete balls up. Could have never happened. Some how they turned it all around. Execution was perfect.

It's not just CVT management fault. The whole industry needs a rethink.

As good as A2 is, you're paying a huge premium to own that now. It could easily do a "CVT" and experience a similar collapse/bust/bubble pop.

The real issue was that it was too easy to fake Manuka honey and too many jokers got into the industry for a quick buck. In other words the barriers to entry are too easy, where as starting an A2 Milk farm takes millions of dollars. The industry needs to clean out all the mess, and get some kind of regulation/certification. It then needs time to consolidate and earn public trust again.

Maybe the best thing to happen to CVT was the bubble it just experienced, cause now there's a chance to change and do it right next time.

[Balance]

Well yeah, you're right, that's why the stock is so cheap.

The point is that this has "A2 potential". Just look at the history of A2 in the beginning, it was a complete balls up. Could have never happened. Some how they turned it all around. Execution was perfect.

It's not just CVT management fault. The whole industry needs a rethink.

As good as A2 is, you're paying a huge premium to own that now. It could easily do a "CVT" and experience a similar collapse/bust/bubble pop.

The real issue was that it was too easy to fake Manuka honey and too many jokers got into the industry for a quick buck. In other words the barriers to entry are too easy, where as starting an A2 Milk farm takes millions of dollars. The industry needs to clean out all the mess, and get some kind of regulation/certification. It then needs time to consolidate and earn public trust again.

Maybe the best thing to happen to CVT was the bubble it just experienced, cause now there's a chance to change and do it right next time.

Cheap?

Cheap as in stuff from the Warehouse is cheap. :D

[Ogg]

Cheap?

Cheap as in stuff from the Warehouse is cheap. :D

Walmart cheap.

[Apathy]

Well yeah, you're right, that's why the stock is so cheap.

The point is that this has "A2 potential". Just look at the history of A2 in the beginning, it was a complete balls up. Could have never happened. Some how they turned it all around. Execution was perfect.

It's not just CVT management fault. The whole industry needs a rethink.

As good as A2 is, you're paying a huge premium to own that now. It could easily do a "CVT" and experience a similar collapse/bust/bubble pop.

The real issue was that it was too easy to fake Manuka honey and too many jokers got into the industry for a quick buck. In other words the barriers to entry are too easy, where as starting an A2 Milk farm takes millions of dollars. The industry needs to clean out all the mess, and get some kind of regulation/certification. It then needs time to consolidate and earn public trust again.

Maybe the best thing to happen to CVT was the bubble it just experienced, cause now there's a chance to change and do it right next time.

There is no comparison - look at the infrastructure and supply chain for milk (glut) vs Manuka. A2 have a bottomless well they can convert and add value to ...... CVT have exact opposite.

[Vaygor1]

... The real issue was that it was too easy to fake Manuka honey and too many jokers got into the industry for a quick buck. In other words the barriers to entry are too easy....

There are a few nz-honey-sector issues including the one above. These are well outlined in this 2012 report from pages 46 to 50 inclusive...

https://coriolisresearch.com/pdfs/coriolis-report-investment-opportunities-honey-industry.pdf

Not so easy to fix. Scotland got it right with "Whiskey", and France got it right with "Champagne"... NZ did not get it right with "Manuka" or "Kiwifruit", and probably too late to correct it now.

[winner69]

Plenty of honey in storage but made a loss

No worries as They say “.... the Financial Result is masking strategic gains”. Everything will be realised one day

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CVT/331112/295707.pdf

[winner69]

They call it an ‘Investor Presentation’

I reckon it should be called a ‘Shareholder ‘Presentation’

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CVT/331112/295710.pdf

[whatsup]

Did I read this correctly that they have circa $100,000,000 bank debt ?

[Balance]

No dividend.

Relentless climb in inventories but declining sales.

Debts increasing and accounts payable increasing!

Bye bye Comvita!

[BlackPeter]

Plenty of honey in storage but made a loss

No worries as They say “.... the Financial Result is masking strategic gains”. Everything will be realised one day

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CVT/331112/295707.pdf

Oh dear:

revenue down, EBIT slashed and a significant NPAT loss ... they lost nearly 6 cents per share for the first HY!
and worse - they don't produce the honey, they need to buy it and hope that it will appreciate ...

How do you call a loss making company with negative revenue and earnings growth and a management which got now 3 out of 3 forecasts wrong?
Right - Comvita!

Here cometh the 3 handle?

[BlackPeter]

They call it an ‘Investor Presentation’

I reckon it should be called a ‘Shsreholder ‘Presentation’

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CVT/331112/295710.pdf

Nice picture though on the first slide - is this Tasmania?

[whatsup]

Market DOES NOT LIKE THIS ANN down 10% + already !!

[Sideshow Bob]

Inventories equate to over 9 months of total revenue!! Ouch!!!

[BlackPeter]

Inventories equate to over 9 months of total revenue!! Ouch!!!

That's last years revenue ... might be 12 months of this years revenue ;):

[whatsup]

we could be sub $3.00 soon at the rate that CVT is falling, where is this business going now ?

[Balance]

Inventories equate to over 9 months of total revenue!! Ouch!!!

It's deliberate apparently.

UMF increases with time?

Like De Beers with diamonds and the Hunt Brothers with Silver, Comvita is going to corner the high UMF honey market?

[King1212]

Dang...would cut loss and move to HGH...lucky not have this on my portfolio...

[Ogg]

Looks pretty bad, lol.

Big drop in North American and Europe. NZ flat. Only Asia is growing.

Might as well sell out to the Chinese.

[Balance]

we could be sub $3.00 soon at the rate that CVT is falling, where is this business going now ?

One brave buyer holding the fort with 500 shares to buy at $4.10!

[BlackPeter]

we could be sub $3.00 soon at the rate that CVT is falling, where is this business going now ?

Still bids for nearly 32,000 shares in the market. Pity that 31,000 of them offer only $1,00 a share;

[Beagle]

Oh dear:

revenue down, EBIT slashed and a significant NPAT loss ... they lost nearly 6 cents per share for the first HY!
and worse - they don't produce the honey, they need to buy it and hope that it will appreciate ...

How do you call a loss making company with negative revenue and earnings growth and a management which got now 3 out of 3 forecasts wrong?
Right - Comvita!

Here cometh the 3 handle?

I don't think its even worth a dollar. Name change is required "Convita" I think those bidding $1 are braver than TRA shareholders and that's really saying something !
I hope they manage to stay in business so this dog can still buy their excellent Derma cream product but if they don't there's plenty of other manuka honey producers, (a dime a dozen really) making similar products.

The one thing I lament with this share....if only picking winners was this easy...

[Balance]

Looks pretty bad, lol.

Big drop in North American and Europe. NZ flat. Only Asia is growing.

Might as well sell out to the Chinese.

Chinese will be looking to average down having paid over $10.00 before. Ouch!

They may pay $2.50 and that is expensive for a stock which has failed to deliver on anything.

Recall the $400m revenue target by 2020?

Capital raising will be required soon enough by the banks who must be pissing in their pants at yet another lending disaster to an agricultural stock - debts have gone from bugger all in 2013 to over $100m today and that's after raising over $100m of new equity over that time!

[Beagle]

Chinese will be looking to average down having paid over $10.00 before. Ouch!

They may pay $2.50 and that is expensive for a stock which has failed to deliver on anything.

Recall the $400m revenue target by 2020?

Capital raising will be required soon enough by the banks who must be pissing in their pants at yet another lending disaster to an agricultural stock - debts have gone from bugger all in 2013 to over $100m today and that's after raising over $100m of new equity over that time!

Hat tip to Forest who took the trouble to drive all the way to the annual meeting a couple of years ago and told us he wasn't happy with the answers to questions he asked. Also kudos to you mate for consistently calling this company out for all its "creative talk" in many forms.
This company has been an unmitigated disaster and management and directors credibility with ALL previous forecasting is in complete tatters.
I would not pay $1.00 for a share in this company. I think its uninvest able.

[Ogg]

Capital raising will be required soon enough by the banks who must be pissing in their pants at yet another lending disaster

That's probably the biggest risk now. MPG territory :D (maybe you can flick this one too?)

[Ogg]

Surely a private equity buy out is the only way forward from here?

[winner69]

Inventories equate to over 9 months of total revenue!! Ouch!!!


Yes bob .... more than enough stock to cover a years sales

[kiwidollabill]

The've snuck the term 'Global Price Harmonisation' in a few times... wonder if it is code for the Australians are undercutting us and we are quietly crapping ourselves.

For such a material N. American customer they 'should have' a decent view on their current stock and future requirements, no reason this couldnt have been forecasted and properly managed...

Still some more pain to be had... they're trying to do a million things at once (so many small scale aquesitions, investments etc) and doing none of the core things right (i.e. pricing, stock management and forecasting). PE could swoop in, clear the decks of the rubbish and turn a decent $.

[stoploss]

The take over will happen, it's just a question of when.

Your $3 downside call was just plain wrong. The stock has already come down from $12 and the market cap today is a meagre $280m.

I bet you in the next few weeks there'll be an offer on the table. They won't just walk away. This is all just part of their plan.

I'd admit $10 is probably not gonna happen "this year." I can see at least $8 in the short term, maybe $9 if they're lucky now.

Now that the share price has dropped, so has the expectations, therefore it's the same odds as before, $2/$3 upside vs $1 downside. I'd advise those who got trapped before to double down.

It will be interesting to see if $6 holds tomorrow. I bet you it does hold. Need to wait a few days for the volume to settle to see where it's at. If it drops below $5.50 (which it won't) I might get back in, but at that price I'll be in for the long term.

At the end of the day, this stock is just cheap compared to everything else in the world today. If it was trading on the ASX or was a private company it would be double the price today. Hell, even Capilano Honey on the ASX is almost as big as Comvita now.


Must be really "cheap " now ....... Just because something was $ 12, it doesn't mean its cheap at half the price and certainly doesn't mean it can't get cheaper .
Hope you haven't been backing the truck up too much Ogg .

[Ogg]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12207367


The company said changes to the way it does business with China, a lack of orders from a major existing US customer, and another poor pre-Christmas honey harvest, drove the company into the red over the six months.

[Vaygor1]

The've snuck the term 'Global Price Harmonisation' in a few times... wonder if it is code for the Australians are undercutting us and we are quietly crapping ourselves.
This from google:

"Price harmonisation... a quaint euphemism for what is effectively a wrestle between the department stores and global brands suppliers to close the price gap between local retailers and their online rivals."

[Beagle]

Deserves to be on a cyclical / agricultural / no growth PE of 8.5...but wait there are no earnings :eek2:

[Balance]

That's probably the biggest risk now. MPG territory :D (maybe you can flick this one too?)

I put my money where my words are.

Remember you weren't prepared to bet on CVT?

Give you another chance - bet on MPG?

[Ogg]

I put my money where my words are.

Remember you weren't prepared to bet on CVT?

Give you another chance - bet on MPG?

I will bet that:

A) A take over on CVT will happen before a take over on MPG, AND;
B) More upside on today's share price of $4.20 vs $0.49, when and if happens.

Reasoning:

1) Still good growth from in CVT from Asia, vs downturn in property in Aussie/NZ on MPG in medium term.
2) Agriculture better moat than materials/manufacturing.
3) Comvita brand still strong. Metro not worth as much.

Having said that, both are really dogs. Lesson learned, we need to both move on.

[Beagle]

No way in the world 1 CVT share is worth 8.5 MPG shares in my opinion....nowhere remotely close. I'm with Balance on this one.

[Ogg]

No way in the world 1 CVT share is worth 8.5 MPG shares in my opinion....nowhere remotely close. I'm with Balance on this one.

At least it comes with a factory I guess.

[Sideshow Bob]

Interesting looking at the graphs (just on Google) - price was $4.38 on the 5th of Feb, at was $5.42 15 days later. Near on 24% increase.

Back done with a thud today with the result!

Something smelly??

[Balance]

Having said that, both are really dogs. Lesson learned, we need to both move on.

Speak for yourself.

I am sitting on a nice enough profit on MPG, buying from the reef fishes.

More upside yet to come.

[Ogg]

Speak for yourself.

I am sitting on a nice enough profit on MPG, buying from the reef fishes.

More upside yet to come.

Lock it in then and buy some more A2.

[King1212]

Must be really "cheap " now ....... Just because something was $ 12, it doesn't mean its cheap at half the price and certainly doesn't mean it can't get cheaper .
Hope you haven't been backing the truck up too much Ogg .


I remembered god dang brokers recomended buy...buy..buy at $12......dang.....

[voltage]

would you sell at this price, very disappointed with this company, competition increasing, will it get better.

[bull....]

price fall under 4 support then leaves next support at just under 2. another bad yr probably see them get there i reckon

[Balance]

would you sell at this price, very disappointed with this company, competition increasing, will it get better.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12207556

This may muddy the waters more!

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12207556

This may muddy the waters more!

Thanks Balance ...they seem to be ‘working hard’ on breaking promises

Maybe just a run of bad luck

[Balance]

Thanks Balance ...they seem to be ‘working hard’ on breaking promises

Maybe just a run of bad luck

The Chinese will want to be selling out? They are most superstitious about 'bad luck' companies!

[Ogg]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/comvita-negotiates-new-us-manuka-honey-orders


...Coulter says the company is in negotiations with its biggest North American customer, which has 500 outlets in the US and Canada...

The US overstocked another brand and Comvita has received no orders since the end of 2017.

Interesting.

[Beagle]

Suppose they can make $8m profit on an average basis, as appears to be the case looking at last few years. That's 17.5 cps. Now apply a cyclical agricultural no growth PE of 8.5 and you get fair value of $1.49. Anyone paying more than that has really bought into the manuka honey hype in my opinion.

[bull....]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12210504

Comvita: Still looking for the sweet spot
literally lol

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12210504

Comvita: Still looking for the sweet spot
literally lol

Leaving the Chinese with a sour taste for paying $10.00+ for their shareholding!

Ouch!

[Ogg]

Leaving the Chinese with a sour taste for paying $10.00+ for their shareholding!

Ouch!

Analysts have also queried Comvita's move away from the unofficial grey trading channel into China — the channel that propelled it into the limelight in the first place.

Wilson says Comvita's experience is in stark contrast to fellow premium Chinese consumer play a2 Milk, for which daigou remains an important platform.


Will A2 suffer the same fate?

[Balance]

Analysts have also queried Comvita's move away from the unofficial grey trading channel into China — the channel that propelled it into the limelight in the first place.

Wilson says Comvita's experience is in stark contrast to fellow premium Chinese consumer play a2 Milk, for which daigou remains an important platform.


Will A2 suffer the same fate?

That's the huge difference between ATM & CVT - one is an essential and the other is a non-essential.

Guess which is what!

[Ogg]

That's the huge difference between ATM & CVT - one is an essential and the other is a non-essential.

Guess which is what!

Without bees and honey life on this planet wouldn't exist.

Infant formula is a man made synthetic product that doctors do not recommend you feed to your child.

[Beagle]

I think Coulter has to go. Under his management this company has been an abject failure. Questions have to be asked about his competence in my opinion.

[Balance]

Without bees and honey life on this planet wouldn't exist.

Infant formula is a man made synthetic product that doctors do not recommend you feed to your child.

And the China government says - really? :D

[whatsup]

Without bees and honey life on this planet wouldn't exist.

Infant formula is a man made synthetic product that doctors do not recommend you feed to your child.

please elaborate and back up with science .

[BlackPeter]

please elaborate and back up with science .

Well, ogg is obviously right - his claim has just nothing to do with the need or the usefulness of manuka honey or the need for a company like Comvita.

I think what he wants to point out is that most of the food we produce (fruit and many vegetables) is dependant on bees pollinating them. If you take all the bees world wide away, than our food production would drop depending on which estimate you look at between 30% and 90%. No matter which one it is - at least one third of mankind would starve as well. Ouch.

http://www.fao.org/3/i0842e/i0842e09.pdf

A2 Platinum is however just another milk formula (i. e. a mixture out of milkpowder and varius sugars and other often sythetic produced chemicals) for babys whose mothers choose not to breastfeed.

Mankind survived for the last million years or so without baby formula (i.e. it is clearly not essential), while we didn't demonstrate yet that we are able at all to survive without bees. But again - no essential need for honey (except to feed the bees) and certainly not for Comvita.

[Airw0lf]

Well, ogg is obviously right - his claim has just nothing to do with the need or the usefulness of manuka honey or the need for a company like Comvita.I think what he wants to point out is that most of the food we produce (fruit and many vegetables) is dependant on bees pollinating them. If you take all the bees world wide away, than our food production would drop depending on which estimate you look at between 30% and 90%. No matter which one it is - at least one third of mankind would starve as well. Ouch.http://www.fao.org/3/i0842e/i0842e09.pdfYes, I think there is zero scientific debate on the usefulness of bees to ecosystems, although as BlackPeter points out this is a bit tangential to CVT itself. As for the infant formula thing, that's not an area of knowledge for me so I won't say much other than there are some well documented cases where the promotion of baby formula has actually caused more harm than good in developing countries due to the simple fact that water quality issues and other sanitation challenges in the preparation of bottles can make babies very sick. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nestlé_boycott. But this doesn't necessarily lead to the unilateral conclusion that doctors should be advising against its use.

[Balance]

Yes, I think there is zero scientific debate on the usefulness of bees to ecosystems, although as BlackPeter points out this is a bit tangential to CVT itself. As for the infant formula thing, that's not an area of knowledge for me so I won't say much other than there are some well documented cases where the promotion of baby formula has actually caused more harm than good in developing countries due to the simple fact that water quality issues and other sanitation challenges in the preparation of bottles can make babies very sick. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nestlé_boycott. But this doesn't necessarily lead to the unilateral conclusion that doctors should be advising against its use.

Tens of millions of China mothers have no choice but to use infant formula (after the first few weeks of breast feeding) as thery have to work for a living.

That is the essence of 'essential' in a China context for infant formula.

Manuka honey? Will not even cross trhe mind of the China government as remotely essential - especially at the horrendous prices charged for questionable manuka health benefits!

[Ogg]

Tens of millions of China mothers have no choice but to use infant formula (after the first few weeks of breast feeding) as thery have to work for a living.

That is the essence of 'essential' in a China context for infant formula.

Manuka honey? Will not even cross trhe mind of the China government as remotely essential - especially at the horrendous prices charged for questionable manuka health benefits!

There's lots of choice out there: Goat Milk, Coconut Milk, Hemp Milk, Rice Milk, Almond Milk, Flax Milk, Soy Milk, Oat Milk, Cashew Milk, Macadamia Milk and let's not forget A1 Cow milk.

Breast milk is the best, that's why doctors recommend it, and that's why they also put a warning label on infant formula.

A2 milk is just as questionable as Manuka. However, they both likely have "some" benefits, and therefore they should have some premium value. The question is how much of a premium should the consumer pay.

I predict that A2 will suffer the same problems CVT has. The Manuka industry was more mature then the recent A2 movement. A2 has really only boomed in the last 10 years, where as the Manuka boom started early 2000's.

We'll start to see increased competition with A2 milk soon. This will result in more dubious operators entering the market. More fraud etc. Also, like with any other heath crazy, as time goes by it's forget and replaced with the next big thing.

[Balance]

There's lots of choice out there: Goat Milk, Coconut Milk, Hemp Milk, Rice Milk, Almond Milk, Flax Milk, Soy Milk, Oat Milk, Cashew Milk, Macadamia Milk and let's not forget A1 Cow milk.

Breast milk is the best, that's why doctors recommend it, and that's why they also put a warning label on infant formula.

A2 milk is just as questionable as Manuka. However, they both likely have "some" benefits, and therefore they should have some premium value. The question is how much of a premium should the consumer pay.

I predict that A2 will suffer the same problems CVT has. The Manuka industry was more mature then the recent A2 movement. A2 has really only boomed in the last 10 years, where as the Manuka boom started early 2000's.

We'll start to see increased competition with A2 milk soon. This will result in more dubious operators entering the market. More fraud etc. Also, like with any other heath crazy, as time goes by it's forget and replaced with the next big thing.

You are completely missing the point, my dear Ogg - the China government decides what is essential, pure and simple.

It's like this - many will continue to argue until Trump gets indicted for being a pathological liar but China decides the fate of North Korea - not Trump.

[Ogg]

You are completely missing the point, my dear Ogg (who predicted CVT will get taken over eons ago at some inflated value) - the China government decides what is essential, pure and simple.

Meanwhile, you should be backing up the truck and backing up your belief that CVT is such a raging BUY?

So what are you saying?... That the Chinese government has decided that A2 milk is essential over A1? Or that infant formula is essential and honey is not?

I backed up the (imaginary) truck at $4.20 vs $.49 for MPG, don't you remember.

[Balance]

So what are you saying?... That the Chinese government has decided that A2 milk is essential over A1? Or that infant formula is essential and honey is not?

I backed up the (imaginary) truck at $4.20 vs $.49 for MPG, don't you remember.

All infant formula - essential, A1, A2 or A10. Up to the consumers to decide which is the best and with A2's anti-lactose intolerance quality, the China consumers prefer ATM and are prepared to pay top prices for it - that's the market.

When you are ready to bet with real money, let me know.

Would have made some lovely $$$$ off you from the last bet if you were brave enough to back up your belief!

[Balance]

Game is up for Comvita - it is but an agricultural stock subject to the vagaries of nature.

Will take a few more years of proof before the die-hards start to realize so all the better for those who see the light to get the hell out while the diehards continue to hold and buy more shares!

Was $5.83 then.

[stoploss]

Downward spiral continues .......
Funniest thing about this article supermarket operator says prices dropped 10 % , producer says 25-50 % .....

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/111456907/tough-times-ahead-for-new-zealands-beekeepers

[Beagle]

Looks like some beekeepers are in a very sticky situation. Convita shareholders can look forward to their shares ending up in a gooey mess.

[kiwidollabill]

Hang on hang on... two poor performing seasons but now an oversupply of Manuka.

I call BS on the management here (if I hadn't done already)

Watch the export margin slide on their products.

[sb9]

Looks like some beekeepers are in a very sticky situation. Convita shareholders can look forward to their shares ending up in a gooey mess.

Down to lows of 2015....quite telling!!!

[Beagle]

Down to lows of 2015....quite telling!!!

Share price still defies any logic based on average earnings over the last few years let alone the present downturn.
Might be worth $2 (my present assessment is well south of that), as a takeover target on the basis that the new owner can clean out all the dead wood in management and on the board and put in place some systems that actually work for shareholders.

Who remembers they were supposed to be making sales of $400m by 2020 lol

[Xerof]

"purposely" building inventory, funded by debt. yeah right

[kiwidollabill]

"purposely" building inventory, funded by debt. yeah right

Will they end up restating their inventory valuation?

[SilverBack]

Downward spiral continues .......
Funniest thing about this article supermarket operator says prices dropped 10 % , producer says 25-50 % .....

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/111456907/tough-times-ahead-for-new-zealands-beekeepers

What is so amusing about being ripped off by your favourite friendly supermarket?

[SilverBack]

Hang on hang on... two poor performing seasons but now an oversupply of Manuka.

I call BS on the management here (if I hadn't done already)

Watch the export margin slide on their products.

You are stretching things here. Manuka has a narrow flowering season but the bees keep making honey all year from any flower that they can find with nectar. A bonus in honey supply need not mean a surfeit of manuka honey. It all depends on the conditions at the time of the manuka flowering and the extent of the manuka response to conditions over the months preceding the flowering.
Nevertheless, CVT will be selling non-manuka honey from the hives that they own and so the better question is "what proportion of revenues comes from non-manuka honey"? Please excuse me for not researching that question but I have lots of other shares to worry about and am short of time just now.
Of course, this news just amplifies the fact that CVT is a horticultural company that has to deal with the vagaries of seasonal fluctuations like any other horticulturalist and so needs to be valued accordingly. They can minimise this by spreading hives thoughout the country, whether by contract or by ownership but they cannot escape the seasonal impacts.
If we have a bumper manuka harvest then this is definitely a positive because of the export orientation. Who cares if there is too much manuka for the NZ demand if China, US etc want more? One other factor - honey and related bee products can be stored, especially the products processed from it and so a bumper harvest one year can be released out over the forthcoming months for maximum advantage. We are not talking about the sale of fresh milk here.

[Beagle]

Yes its just an agricultural company that deserves an agricultural PE of about 8.5 - 9.5 but who knows what normal earnings are and there's certainly no point asking management. I valued it a while back on this basis and arrived at ~ $1.50. All I need to know is that the current price is still wildly optimistic based on unproven results and continued disappointments from management who are so wildly inaccurate with their forecasting they'd be far better to simply keep their mouths firmly shut as its quite obvious they have no forward visibility whatsoever. Quite frankly in my opinion throwing darts at a dartboard would have given more accurate forecasting over the years.

[kiwidollabill]

Ok, please tell me why inventory is ~0.65x total sales after 2 years of terrible honey harvests? That is an aboslute rubbish inventory turn over rate for an FMCG company. My belief is that they are sitting on a whole lot of product which they have been unable to sell.... both because of over supply and because the Australians are taking the demand.... margin has contracted from ~50% in 2015 to ~41% now, inventory was 0.3x revenue then also

For the last 2.5years they've had a significant operating negative cashflow and the market place is getting worse.

They're either going to have to loan more on their bank lines or divest more assets before the end of the year (or stop buying so much honey, but they are probably contracturally locked in). DYOR but I think this has got alot more to slide.

[Ogg]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CVT/333180/298232.pdf


China is moving more into a direct trade and a formalised cross border e-commerce model


Postcompletion of this transaction, Li Wang will hold 18.41% of Comvita’s total shares on issue

[Yoda]

https://www.mpi.govt.nz/growing-and-harvesting/honey-and-bees/bee-colony-loss-survey/

The overall loss rate, i.e. total winter losses reported by survey respondents divided by the total number of colonies that were alive on 1 June 2018, was estimated to be 10.21%, with a 95% confidence interval of [9.85%, 10.58%]. Although these estimates of overall loss rates are statistically indistinguishable from those in 2017, they are significantly higher than for winter 2015 and winter 2016, providing evidence that loss rates have increased at a national level. Moreover, evidence from trend analysis indicates a positive time trend in overall loss rates between 2015 and 2018, suggesting that future overall loss rates are likely to be higher still.

oops.... we need the bees for more than just honey...
less bees, less honey, less profit.
no doubt that is too simplistic

[SilverBack]

https://www.mpi.govt.nz/growing-and-harvesting/honey-and-bees/bee-colony-loss-survey/

The overall loss rate, i.e. total winter losses reported by survey respondents divided by the total number of colonies that were alive on 1 June 2018, was estimated to be 10.21%, with a 95% confidence interval of [9.85%, 10.58%]. Although these estimates of overall loss rates are statistically indistinguishable from those in 2017, they are significantly higher than for winter 2015 and winter 2016, providing evidence that loss rates have increased at a national level. Moreover, evidence from trend analysis indicates a positive time trend in overall loss rates between 2015 and 2018, suggesting that future overall loss rates are likely to be higher still.

oops.... we need the bees for more than just honey...
less bees, less honey, less profit.
no doubt that is too simplistic


The trend is small and it could be influenced by increasing willingness of apiarists to respond to MPI requests for info as well as increased awareness of the issue.
Your final comment is correct in terms of fundamentals but honey producers have been dealing with hive threats for centuries. It is actually pretty easy to keep hives alive and protected from food loss and pests during winter. Just isolate them and feed a sugar solution. No varroa, no other pests and no need for flowers. Problem is you will probably go broke in the process, and of course you will not get any manuka factor but that is true throughout winter anyway. Nevertheless, I know that apiarists sometimes build up their hives by feeding sugar.
If MPI establish that bee loss is increasing then they can help the industry to deal with this in practical ways. The most basic way to counteract hive loss is to increase hive reproduction and all apiarists will work at this. Hence, what is of concern here, is the cost of building up hives rather than whether hives are lost (which they always will be). MPI can certainly help the industry with this.

[Apathy]

Ok, please tell me why inventory is ~0.65x total sales after 2 years of terrible honey harvests? That is an aboslute rubbish inventory turn over rate for an FMCG company. My belief is that they are sitting on a whole lot of product which they have been unable to sell.... both because of over supply and because the Australians are taking the demand.... margin has contracted from ~50% in 2015 to ~41% now, inventory was 0.3x revenue then also

For the last 2.5years they've had a significant operating negative cashflow and the market place is getting worse.

They're either going to have to loan more on their bank lines or divest more assets before the end of the year (or stop buying so much honey, but they are probably contracturally locked in). DYOR but I think this has got alot more to slide.

Spot on - its hysterical ......... they put honey in bottles........ ........ and they now have a 'minor shareholder at 18%' who will have blocking rights on any takeover - i.e. they need to take him out before doing any hail mary.............

[Balance]

Spot on - its hysterical ......... they put honey in bottles........ Chair was one hit wonder on the basis of being right place right time........ and they now have a 'minor shareholder at 18%' who will have blocking rights on any takeover - i.e. they need to take him out before doing any hail mary.............

Minor shareholder could very well facilitate a takeover - actually.

CVT directors should have taken the $5.50 offer which was on the table last year - that offer is only going to look better and better as CVT's sp goes lower and lower.

Meanwhile, Kiwidollabill is exactly right about CVT's spin losing momentum and is now down the drain - poor harvests & build up in inventories = BS.

[winner69]

Comvita guy on radio this morning saying now they taken control of Chinese distribution things are looking very bright for the future ...but I dozed off without hearing the end of the interview

[winner69]

Like the way Comvita are getting ‘closer to the customer’ in China .....soon they’ll be able to give them a hug

[Balance]

Comvita guy on radio this morning saying now they taken control of Chinese distribution things are looking very bright for the future ...but I dozed off without hearing the end of the interview

Wow!

So they had no control when they owned 51%? Things must have been rather sticky then, huh?

And they now expect the Chinese to work subserviently because CVT now owns 100%??????

Knowing the Chinese, they will be busy setting up a separate distribution channel for other manuka honey brands!

Meanwhile, CVT has lost 42.5% of share price value in a year - those who took the opportunity to get out with the sp spike last year with the 'takeover' which never happened must be grateful indeed!

[Timesurfer]

You are assuming the Chinese aren’t buying up CVT shares.

[Balance]

You are assuming the Chinese aren’t buying up CVT shares.

No assumption required - the lucky buggers were paid partly in CVT shares when they first sold the 51% China company - at $10.60 per share.

Now they increase their shareholding (after seeing a massive loss on their shareholding value) via yet another share & cash consideration for the other 49% (which seemingly, CVT has no contrrol despite having 51%!).

[Timesurfer]

So Comvita (now owned by the Chinese) has taken over the Chinese distribution channel?

Sounds like the Chinese have bought a NZ brand supplying NZ honey. Probably they will water it down and repackage it along the way too. Maybe I will buy some CVT shares while I still can.

[Balance]

So Comvita (now owned by the Chinese) has taken over the Chinese distribution channel?

Sounds like the Chinese have bought a NZ brand supplying NZ honey. Probably they will water it down and repackage it along the way too. Maybe I will buy some CVT shares while I still can.


18.61% = owned by someone? New defination then of control - pass the word around to OIO, Commerce Commission and FMA.


:t_up:

[IAK]

Comvita opening up a new sustainable warehouse Will be able to store heaps mote honey. All good.
http://nzh.tw/12223207

[BlackPeter]

Comvita opening up a new sustainable warehouse Will be able to store heaps mote honey. All good.
http://nzh.tw/12223207

Hmm - didn't they accumulate already more than one year worth of produce during the recent bad harvest years? And now they built more storage space (presumably) for the good harvest years to come?

Just wondering whether they have a good insurance policy? I think high quality honey is combustible ....

[Beagle]

Comvita opening up a new sustainable warehouse Will be able to store heaps mote honey. All good.
http://nzh.tw/12223207

Good. I hope they stay in business though and don't try and store too much using bank debt as some of their medi honey products work a real treat. This is definitely a case for me of using some of their products rather than owning a share of the company:eek2:

[Sideshow Bob]

Comvita opening up a new sustainable warehouse Will be able to store heaps mote honey. All good.
http://nzh.tw/12223207

The problem with having more storage is you use more storage. Just like a meat plant with a freezer (or your chest freezer at home) - the more space you have the more you fill it up.

Given their bad harvest years and level of stock, they've got to get out there and sell some of the stuff.

[stoploss]

50% off !! Mind you I'm not sure if it was a much inflated price to start with , but competitive out there ....

https://www.avatarmanukahoney.com

[minimoke]

50% off !! Mind you I'm not sure if it was a much inflated price to start with , but competitive out there ....

https://www.avatarmanukahoney.comJeepers. Still think I'll stick to my 4kg tub of local honey for $30.

[whatsup]

Latest update, no good IMHO, can someone please post announcement ?

[winner69]

Latest update, no good IMHO, can someone please post announcement ?

They did say something was ‘extremely disappointing’

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CVT/334113/299331.pdf

[winner69]

What’s up ..I think the main bit is that although we are winning we are going to lose money


“This significant achievement in strategic re-alignment, won’t be obvious in our financial result for the year ending 30 June 2019, which we now expect to be a loss in the order of $6m net profit after tax.”

[Beagle]

I honestly don't know how anyone can have confidence in the board or the CEO now. Surely its beyond any reasonable doubt now that fundamentally their business model is broken and massive change is needed at the top and a completely new strategy needs to be invoked.

I would imagine the bank are getting extremely nervous regarding their exposure. This company is uninvest-able in my opinion.

[Ogg]

lol, what a sh*t show.

[winner69]

Share price hading back to the low 300s

Another stock with a chart that looks like a mountain to steep to climb ...TA people must have a name for it

[Ogg]

With all the debt, was does this mean for the banking covenants? This is starting to look like IQE.

[winner69]

With all the debt, was does this mean for the banking covenants? This is starting to look like IQE.

Got plenty of honey in the warehouses ....but could end up as a sticky mess for the bank

[Ogg]

Got plenty of honey in the warehouses ....but could end up as a sticky mess for the bank

With over $100m debt, surely the bank is looking to offload this, given how the risk profile has now changed. It was once an NZX50 company with strong earnings, now it's a penny stock with losses.

[whatsup]

I personally cannot see away out for CVT what with all of their problems, debt, competition, weather, huge stock, virtual no local market, under cuttion, too many to list, this share could easily be $1-00 -----$1-50 share, I hope not. sad sad sad !

[percy]

Well really is anyone surprised.?
All I can say is "no surprises here."

[Ogg]

Well really is anyone surprised.?
All I can say is "no surprises here."

I'm surprised. I remember reading this article not too long ago.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11485597

"I've been with the company for 10 years, the company's in very, very good shape."

O how things can change.

[Beagle]

With over $100m debt, surely the bank is looking to offload this, given how the risk profile has now changed. It was once an NZX50 company with strong earnings, now it's a penny stock with losses.

Have a look at note 13 to the interim accounts and review how systematically they've drawn down long term bank debt in recent times. https://www.comvita.co.nz/_assets/Investors/HY19/HY-FY19-Interim-Financial-Statements.pdf This is damming stuff for a company with financial performance that's best described as an ongoing fiasco.
I would think this latest revelation today is likely to see them in breech of their banking covenants and the bank saying "no more".
Time's up for the current CEO and Chairman...massive change is needed and a whole new perspective or there's a real risk the bank will give them some new perspective whether they like it or not !

I won't try and put a price on the fair value of the shares any more as I think the business is fundamentally "broken" and probably has little if any value other than in a takeover situation with a complete clean sweep of management and the board and their conceptually flawed current processes.

I think shareholders are on a hiding to nothing and this is just a slow motion train wreck heading for derailment.

[kiwidollabill]

I still believe they are using the harvest story to hide poor action in their sales channels. The harvest business will just provide transfer pricing to their production/sales arm so its really just an accounting ploy - you can cut it every which way and it comes down to sales vs COGS. Their desire to move to 'a variable cost model' does show some bad decisions in the past to lock in supplier pricing which means they will be overpaying for raw feedstock.

Looks to be a 'plan' to hold 12 months of inventory based on borrowings - this would be fine if they had some flex on the sales price, but they have none.

Alot of 'old fashioned exporter' logic here which will not grow value for shareholders. More room to slide on the SP I feel. DYOR...

[Beagle]

SP has massive potential to the downside in my view.

[Ogg]

SP has massive potential to the downside in my view.

Someone big has been loading up in 10k lots all morning.

[winner69]

I still believe they are using the harvest story to hide poor action in their sales channels. The harvest business will just provide transfer pricing to their production/sales arm so its really just an accounting ploy. Their desire to move to 'a variable cost model' does show some bad decisions in the past to lock in supplier pricing which means they will be overpaying for raw feedstock.

Looks to be a 'plan' to hold 12 months of inventory based on borrowings - this would be fine if they had some flex on the sales price, but they have none.

Alot of 'old fashioned exporter' logic here which will not grow value for shareholders. More room to slide on the SP I feel. DYOR...

When companies publicly talk about ‘price harmonisation’ you know they are in trouble

Wonder if they know what it means .....hope not the lowest common denominator

Suppose they into phosfluorescently myocardinating client-centered solutions as well

[kiwidollabill]

When companies publicly talk about ‘price harmonisation’ you know they are in trouble

Wonder if they know what it means .....hope not the lowest common denominator

Suppose they into phosfluorescently myocardinating client-centered solutions as well

It means that sales channels of theirs are probably leaning out as they can get Manuka for cheaper elsewhere (I have mentioned the Australians), their China ploy is probably an attempt to stop the bleeding.

Race to the bottom.....

[steveb]

Someone big has been loading up in 10k lots all morning.
Do you think someone is trying to prop them up a little bit?I must admit I am quite surprised to see the SP holding at the $3.70 level

[Ogg]

Where's Balance, is he banned?

[winner69]

Where's Balance, is he banned?

Seems he is banned

Something he said about Cindy I think

[whatsup]

Seems he is banned

Something he said about Cindy I think

Two weeks I think minimum.

[BlackPeter]

Seems he is banned

Something he said about Cindy I think

I can't seem him on the members list anymore ... he might have just left sharetrader?

[Beagle]

Off to Siberia for a while to try and find some equilibrium to his balance.

[winner69]

I can't seem him on the members list anymore ... he might have just left sharetrader?

He hasnt been on the List since he previous bannings

[Beagle]

What’s up ..I think the main bit is that although we are winning we are going to lose money


“This significant achievement in strategic re-alignment, won’t be obvious in our financial result for the year ending 30 June 2019, which we now expect to be a loss in the order of $6m net profit after tax.”

The wording here is very strange to say the least so I did a bit of digging to see what they're really trying to say here.
In the interim financial statements they had a loss which was then reduced by the future tax benefit of that loss to give an adjusted loss after tax.
My read on this bizarre wording "be a loss in the order of $6m net profit after tax" is the real loss is forecast as approximately $6m / 0.72 = $8.3m loss ameliorated by the future tax benefit of such loss at 28 cents in the dollar of $2.3m.

Two things occur to me if my interpretation of their deliberately obtuse statement is correct.
1. I think this is a very disingenuous way to announce an expected loss. They really should simply announce the headline figure of ~ $8.3m expected loss.
2. The tax benefit only materialises if, and only if, they can make future profits to use up said loss and I no longer think that's anything like "a given"

I really do feel sorry for shareholders in general but any shareholder on here who hasn't already taken note of the many derisory posts of this company over recent times should be asking themselves why not ?

At best its abundantly clear this has all the traditional risks of an agricultural stock so any expected possible future maintainable profit needs to be seen in that light and an appropriate agri PE applied. No way in the world the current SP even after yesterday's decline is warranted.

Good luck to any remaining shareholders on here...you are really going to need it !

[bull....]

shares well over priced fundamentally , technicals suggest around $2 if looking at mthly bollingers potential

[peat]

The wording here is very strange to say the least

yeh I thought it was weird for a more basic reason. a loss is not a net profit. :p

[Beagle]

yeh I thought it was weird for a more basic reason. a loss is not a net profit. :p

LOL it really is a joke and doesn't give one a lot of confidence when they don't even seem to have a basic grasp of conventional wording when forecasting the result does it.
Not only is their track record with forecasting results over the years a complete fiasco now they're entertaining us with obtuse terminology...you really have to wonder how far the CEO is out of his depth...

[winner69]

yeh I thought it was weird for a more basic reason. a loss is not a net profit. :p

Maybe words have different meanings when you based outbin the country at Paengaroa

[winner69]

Wonder what these sentences actually mean — “This valuable inventory is funded entirely by Bank borrowings. Our operating cash flow for the year is positive .......”

I look forward to seeing the full years cash flow statement.

[kiwidollabill]

They 're calling of an after tax profit of 4M in their branded business in the 4th quarter..... no statement around what it is now (I expect also negative). If the apirery side is still negative then they are going to be still in the red.

Again, its all just window dressing blaming on BU vs the other in the eyes of shareholders.

[Beagle]

I think its crystal clear senior management have been eating too much of their own product lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ui5BDtyy52c

[Apathy]

At least they have the Seadragon investment to fall back on when all else fails.......

[winner69]

Half year report (December) had this —Capital commitments for the group totalled $11,700,000 at 31 December 2018 in relation to plantations, the completion of the new warehouse at Paengaroa and the outstanding consideration for the acquisition of a Queen Bee Breeding Unit.

Suppose that’s coming out of further debt as well.

[Beagle]

At least they have the Seadragon investment to fall back on when all else fails.......

:lol: :lol: Funniest thing I have read all week.

[artemis]

NBR headline today (behind the paywall)

Comvita is wasting shareholders’ money
SHOESHINE: The mānuka honey specialist keeps finding excuses for poor performance.

[Apathy]

NBR headline today (behind the paywall)

Comvita is wasting shareholders’ money
SHOESHINE: The mānuka honey specialist keeps finding excuses for poor performance.

Shoeshine is always articulate and insightful ...... and he doesn't miss this time either..

[bull....]

Aggressive' wasp numbers skyrocket, threatening millions in damage
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/112887342/aggressive-wasp-numbers-skyrocket-threatening-millions-in-damage

[artemis]

News that manuka honey is as good for cold sores as pharmacy products. And without restrictions on number of daily applications. Good for sales when people realise.

[Beagle]

News that manuka honey is as good for cold sores as pharmacy products. And without restrictions on number of daily applications. Good for sales when people realise.

Yes their medihoney products are very very good but the quality of management in this company is the exact opposite lol

[BlackPeter]

News that manuka honey is as good for cold sores as pharmacy products. And without restrictions on number of daily applications. Good for sales when people realise.

I think this should read - it is as ineffective as any other cold sore medicine. But yes, hot sweetened tea can soften some of the symptoms ... and it does not matter at all, whether you sweeten the tea with sugar, normal honey or with Manuka honey.

Hardly a sales push for expensive Manuka honey.

[pg0220]

News that manuka honey is as good for cold sores as pharmacy products. And without restrictions on number of daily applications. Good for sales when people realise.
I love manuka honoey and I usually buy Arataki ones, bought the expensive Comvita ones for gifts only...

[SilverBack]

I understood it is Kanuka honey that has been used for cold sores, not Manuka. These are different products and Kanuka has some ingredients that Manuka does not.

[artemis]

I understood it is Kanuka honey that has been used for cold sores, not Manuka. These are different products and Kanuka has some ingredients that Manuka does not.

You are right, I misheard it as manuka. But manuka honey is well known as a cold sore remedy, maybe not scientifically tested though.

[SilverBack]

Comvita are certainly aware of kanuka as the article below reveals but no evidence yet of them marketing it.
https://kiwimana.co.nz/kanuka-honey-better-than-manuka-honey/

(https://kiwimana.co.nz/kanuka-honey-better-than-manuka-honey/)

[bull....]

new lows coming and still on a pe of over 50 ... wow

[SilverBack]

new lows coming and still on a pe of over 50 ... wow

With -$6M NPAT predicted how do you get a +ve PE? I get -25.3 with an EPS of -12.08c.
I am just as interested in their final operating margin and gross revenue but apparently will have to wait for the final results to get this.

[Sideshow Bob]

Bounced off $3, have a feeling it won't be long.....

[SilverBack]

CVT is a horticultural company subject to the vagaries of weather and, in this case, the bees. So, it sells into East Asia where propolis and UMF are exciting. However, without production it has nothing to gain. Oh dear, such a stupid statement. The point is that bees and weather go together. Oh dear, stupid again, unless you like poetry. Best to price CVT as a primary producer rather than as a high tech stock. Maybe their Uruguay connection will give some climate protection with production but too soon to say I think.

[Xerof]

Bees will only go for Kanuka if there is nothing easier to forage on. Good luck getting any volume, and without being multi floral

[bull....]

ceo just quit.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/335622

saee there doing strategic review as well. things not good at comvita

[BlackPeter]

ceo just quit.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/335622

saee there doing strategic review as well. things not good at comvita

Sounds like he did an outstanding job: "Throughout his 16 year tenure with Comvita including four years as CEO, Scott has played an integral role in transitioning the company from a small exporting company with sales of $20m, to the vertically integrated, high value-add international business that we are today with global annual sales now at over $200m"; "Comvita Chair, Neil Craig said that “Scott’s commitment to Comvita since joining the Company in 2003 has been outstanding. He will most be remembered for his pioneering work in developing our market presence in Australia, United Kingdom, North America and Asia. Scott has fostered the relationship with our Chinese partners over the past 16 years and has been a key driver of Comvita’s success in the China market."

Just wondering whose fault it was that the company is now in such a mess .. based on this glowing appraisal it clearly wasn't the CEO?

[kiwidollabill]

Usual kiwi commodity exporter problems - rely on sales channels you dont directly control, focus on supply & production (buy lots of inventory), throw money at the problems, try and be everything to everyone, lack focus on what generates $ and shareholder value

[Beagle]

Sounds like he did an outstanding job: "Throughout his 16 year tenure with Comvita including four years as CEO, Scott has played an integral role in transitioning the company from a small exporting company with sales of $20m, to the vertically integrated, high value-add international business that we are today with global annual sales now at over $200m"; "Comvita Chair, Neil Craig said that “Scott’s commitment to Comvita since joining the Company in 2003 has been outstanding. He will most be remembered for his pioneering work in developing our market presence in Australia, United Kingdom, North America and Asia. Scott has fostered the relationship with our Chinese partners over the past 16 years and has been a key driver of Comvita’s success in the China market."

Just wondering whose fault it was that the company is now in such a mess .. based on this glowing appraisal it clearly wasn't the CEO?

Just the usual B.S. The truth is he presided over a MASSIVE DESTRUCTION in shareholder value since being appointed as CEO.
His appointment has been a complete failure and I believe he was miles out of his depth.

[Balance]

Just the usual B.S. The truth is he presided over a MASSIVE DESTRUCTION in shareholder value since being appointed as CEO.
His appointment has been a complete failure and I believe he was miles out of his depth.

Poor chappie is not in control of the weather, or so they say.

[Beagle]

Poor chappie is not in control of the weather, or so they say.

Much more than the weather going wrong with this pup ! SP pop this morning tells you the market had lost confidence in his abilities as a CEO...if he ever had any ? You need to clear some space in your PM's mate so I can PM you.

[kiwidollabill]

Just the usual B.S. The truth is he presided over a MASSIVE DESTRUCTION in shareholder value since being appointed as CEO.
His appointment has been a complete failure and I believe he was miles out of his depth.

He was out of his depth, but to be fair he came in when alot of the decisions which have confounded to result in the situation now. Ironic that Brett Hewlett will be back for the 'strategic review' and undo alot of what he helped create.

[Balance]

Much more than the weather going wrong with this pup ! SP pop this morning tells you the market had lost confidence in his abilities as a CEO...if he ever had any ? You need to clear some space in your PM's mate so I can PM you.

All tongue in cheek with this bunch of clowns running the company like a run down circus.

These guys live in a parallel universe where they are totally oblivious to the real world out there as we know.

Those who are jumping in to buy today better be ready for a sizeable cash issue, that’s what the strategic review is about.

[winner69]

You can’t blame Scott for stupid, irrational, hyped up punters pushing the share price up close to 13 bucks

Those were exciting days eh .....and some on this thread thought Scott was the bees knees.

It wasn’t Scott who came up with the $400m sales target by 2020 ......and he’s had rotten luck with the weather eh

[winner69]

Strategic review might be finished in October ...and it’s already been going for 12 months...urgency not a word they use

Bloody heck

Jeez, put Beagle, Balance and kiwidollarbill in a room for a week and it would be all done and dusted

[winner69]

Amazes me that the Chairman is still there.

[winner69]

Jeez, I didn’t realise that Luke Bunt was still a director

He leaves a few things out of his bio ......not really a ‘lucky’ Director .....but then again he does seem to have a silver spoon to feed out of troughs

Enough said.

[Beagle]

All tongue in cheek with this bunch of clowns running the company like a run down circus.

These guys live in a parallel universe where they are totally oblivious to the real world out there as we know.

Those who are jumping in to buy today better be ready for a sizeable cash issue, that’s what the strategic review is about.

Well said mate. Its nice to see you back :)

[Apathy]

I have some sympathy for the CEO - he isn't the cause of today's share price jump. Balance hit it on the head capital raise coming - they will need to keep bank happy after they write-down the inventory ----- and rest assured that will be coming next.

[Beagle]

I honestly don't know how anyone can have confidence in the board or the CEO now. Surely its beyond any reasonable doubt now that fundamentally their business model is broken and massive change is needed at the top and a completely new strategy needs to be invoked.

I would imagine the bank are getting extremely nervous regarding their exposure. This company is uninvest-able in my opinion.


lol, what a sh*t show.


I personally cannot see away out for CVT what with all of their problems, debt, competition, weather, huge stock, virtual no local market, under cuttion, too many to list, this share could easily be $1-00 -----$1-50 share, I hope not. sad sad sad !


Well really is anyone surprised.?
All I can say is "no surprises here."


Have a look at note 13 to the interim accounts and review how systematically they've drawn down long term bank debt in recent times. https://www.comvita.co.nz/_assets/Investors/HY19/HY-FY19-Interim-Financial-Statements.pdf This is damming stuff for a company with financial performance that's best described as an ongoing fiasco.
I would think this latest revelation today is likely to see them in breech of their banking covenants and the bank saying "no more".
Time's up for the current CEO and Chairman...massive change is needed and a whole new perspective or there's a real risk the bank will give them some new perspective whether they like it or not !

I won't try and put a price on the fair value of the shares any more as I think the business is fundamentally "broken" and probably has little if any value other than in a takeover situation with a complete clean sweep of management and the board and their conceptually flawed current processes.

I think shareholders are on a hiding to nothing and this is just a slow motion train wreck heading for derailment.

All posted exactly one month ago to the very day. Coincidence ?...you be the judge.

[winner69]

All posted exactly one month ago to the very day. Coincidence ?...you be the judge.

Chairman Craig still there ...since 2005 he’s been Chairman

With a name like Craig and his connections probably still be there in 2029

[Beagle]

Lack of board change among many other reasons is why I wouldn't be interested at any price. Shareholders have obviously fallen victim to the "Peter Principle" with Coulter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_principle

[winner69]

Luke Bunt (Director) could use his Pumpkin Patch learnings to make Comvita great

[Sideshow Bob]

So it was up 41c today, 13.18% or adding $20.3 to its market cap by the CEO quitting!! :confused::confused::confused: Says a lot.

[winner69]

So it was up 41c today, 13.18% or adding $20.3 to its market cap by the CEO quitting!! :confused::confused::confused: Says a lot.

The $20m man eh

[Beagle]

So it was up 41c today, 13.18% or adding $20.3 to its market cap by the CEO quitting!! :confused::confused::confused: Says a lot.

It sure does, it tells you the market had lost confidence in Coulter.

[Apathy]

It sure does, it tells you the market had lost confidence in Coulter.

I think it highlights that there are a lot of idiots out there... seriously the fundamentals haven't changed its still massively over valued and if .... and its a big 'if' the CEO was indeed incompetent and out of control then what does that say about the BOD? Is the governance so weak it can allow a CEO to ramp and dump the share price to the level we have seen over last 52 weeks? The board will try to drip feed the bad news they are sitting on for as long as possible in the hope that a hail Mary gets them out of jail.

There will be a dilution through discounted capital raise and there will be a stock write down.

[Apathy]

I think it highlights that there are a lot of idiots out there... seriously the fundamentals haven't changed its still massively over valued and if .... and its a big 'if' the CEO was indeed incompetent and out of control then what does that say about the BOD? Is the governance so weak it can allow a CEO to ramp and dump the share price to the level we have seen over last 52 weeks? The board will try to drip feed the bad news they are sitting on for as long as possible in the hope that a hail Mary gets them out of jail.

There will be a dilution through discounted capital raise and there will be a stock write down.

I just saw they were up to $3.70 - hysterical.... will everyone be whining when it crashes? Pretty sure there hasn't been any ramping releases from Board or outgoing CEO.

[Beagle]

I think it highlights that there are a lot of idiots out there... seriously the fundamentals haven't changed its still massively over valued and if .... and its a big 'if' the CEO was indeed incompetent and out of control then what does that say about the BOD? Is the governance so weak it can allow a CEO to ramp and dump the share price to the level we have seen over last 52 weeks? The board will try to drip feed the bad news they are sitting on for as long as possible in the hope that a hail Mary gets them out of jail.

There will be a dilution through discounted capital raise and there will be a stock write down.

Agree 100%...as to the rest of your post I would simply reiterate what I posted last month, extract herewith "I honestly don't know how anyone can have confidence in the board or the CEO now. Surely its beyond any reasonable doubt now that fundamentally their business model is broken and massive change is needed at the top and a completely new strategy needs to be invoked".
Emphasis added.

My analysis suggests if this was a well managed and well governed company, (and it clearly isn't), it would only be worth $1.50 - $2.00.
The current price is a relic of a bygone era when Manuka honey was perceived as being really special. Reality has yet to bite properly...but it probably will and quite soon.

[bottomfeeder]

Well I certainly feel like an idiot. I bought 5k at 3.02 and put it straight back on at 3.22. I always sell too quickly.

[Beagle]

Well I certainly feel like an idiot. I bought 5k at 3.02 and put it straight back on at 3.22. I always sell too quickly.

Its okay...you're in good company, there's hundreds of people who bought at $7-$12 and feeling just like you are. I would think there are very very few new people to the market who bought for the first time in the last few days and are up and still holding.

[kiwidollabill]

Agree 100%...as to the rest of your post I would simply reiterate what I posted last month, extract herewith "I honestly don't know how anyone can have confidence in the board or the CEO now. Surely its beyond any reasonable doubt now that fundamentally their business model is broken and massive change is needed at the top and a completely new strategy needs to be invoked".
Emphasis added.

My analysis suggests if this was a well managed and well governed company, (and it clearly isn't), it would only be worth $1.50 - $2.00.
The current price is a relic of a bygone era when Manuka honey was perceived as being really special. Reality has yet to bite properly...but it probably will and quite soon.

Based on my experience there isn't alot of savvy operators in the honey industry.....

[Balance]

Based on my experience there isn't alot of savvy operators in the honey industry.....

I understand from my investment banking contact that Manuka Health now owned by the Singaporeans is going very well.

Guess they will be waiting to pounce on defecting honey producers who must be wondering why they are dealing with Comvita.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://issuu.com/farmersweeklynz/docs/fw_10-06_issuu/1?ff&e=30768707/70418121

Article on departing CEO page 9.

[kiwidollabill]

I understand from my investment banking contact that Manuka Health now owned by the Singaporeans is going very well.

Guess they will be waiting to pounce on defecting honey producers who must be wondering why they are dealing with Comvita.

Yes, yes they are.... :)

[kiora]

Yes, yes they are.... :)

Triple confirmation on that

[Vaygor1]

https://issuu.com/farmersweeklynz/docs/fw_10-06_issuu/1?ff&e=30768707/70418121

Article on departing CEO page 9.

I got out of Comvita around May 2016, selling most of my shares for over $12 each. A bit of good management on my part but also a bit of good luck too.

Ever since Brett Hewlett stepped down as CEO, Comvita's announcements have been overflowing with excrement as far was I'm concerned. A real shame given where they were back then.

Hopefully with Coulter's departure they might get back themselves back on track eventually, but if so it will take quite some time; the damage is done.

[Balance]

No way in the world 1 CVT share is worth 8.5 MPG shares in my opinion....nowhere remotely close. I'm with Balance on this one.

Now 8.32!

:t_up:

[kiora]

I understand from my investment banking contact that Manuka Health now owned by the Singaporeans is going very well.

Guess they will be waiting to pounce on defecting honey producers who must be wondering why they are dealing with Comvita.

Yep smarter beekeepers I'd say too

[whatsup]

Lower expectations announced today when CVT reports.

[Apathy]

Lower expectations announced today when CVT reports.

Not lower than mine.

[winner69]

I think this means serious discussions between management and the auditors and a few late nights too boot. Code for the auditors are not too impressed ?


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CVT/339372/305604.pdf

[Beagle]

Interested in yet another possible pending train wreck mate but I can't access the link ? Says permission for referral from sharetrader refused ?

[Balance]

I think this means serious discussions between management and the auditors and a few late nights too boot. Code for the auditors are not too impressed ?

https://quoteapi.com/resources/da9866271f9d0071/announcements/cvt.nzx/339372/CVT_Results_announcement_date_update.pdf?bearer=ey JhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzY29wZSI6WyJ ndWVzdHMiLCJ1c2VycyJdLCJuYmYiOjE1NjYxOTUyNzgsInN1Y iI6Nzg5Njk1LCJpc3MiOiJzdG9ja25lc3MiLCJub25jZSI6IjQ 5NjgxOTBlMTYzMGEwZDMiLCJpYXQiOjE1NjYxOTUyNzgsImV4c CI6MTU2NjE5NjE3OH0.rOL4cIJwWmeUTlT0cCvt7piVEBzjvMj PESELuPsqAAA

Fully expect that Comvita will come up with a write-off but it's all good as it's 'non-cash'!

Coincidentally, I met up with a Northland beekeeper whose manuka honey inventory has been rendered non-manuka honey grade due to the stringent standard now imposed by MPI.

He is not taking this development lying down and a group of them are in 'discussions with MPI.

Interesting read for those who could be bothered :

https://apinz.org.nz/our-work/standards-compliance-regulatory/

[Sideshow Bob]

Just been in an upmarket supermarket in Shanghai - (relatively) big Comvita display with staff member there for the hussle. Had some big containers of honey 1 for 750 or 2 for 799!

Interestingly, had a big display of Zealong tea that looked very good.

[Balance]

What weight & UMF?

[Balance]

Just been in an upmarket supermarket in Shanghai - (relatively) big Comvita display with staff member there for the hussle. Had some big containers of honey 1 for 750 or 2 for 799!

Interestingly, had a big display of Zealong tea that looked very good.

What UMF & Weight?

[Ogg]

1 for 750 or 2 for 799!



What? Dollars, lol.

[bull....]

delayed financials .. this is bad auditors must have flagged something as not acceptable?

[Beagle]

delayed financials .. this is bad auditors must have flagged something as not acceptable?

Highly unusual and will most likely result in a qualified audit report. Probably a very bad sign that the only independent party scrutinizing the books and systems doesn't believe the "story".

[kiwidollabill]

Fully expect that Comvita will come up with a write-off but it's all good as it's 'non-cash'!

Coincidentally, I met up with a Northland beekeeper whose manuka honey inventory has been rendered non-manuka honey grade due to the stringent standard now imposed by MPI.

He is not taking this development lying down and a group of them are in 'discussions with MPI.

Interesting read for those who could be bothered :

https://apinz.org.nz/our-work/standards-compliance-regulatory/

I hear that alot of east cape Manuka is in the same boat.

The MPI standard is BS, they just came up with it because they 'politcally' couldnt adopt what UMFHA was doing. Theres was perfect either but better than what they have now...

[bull....]

biggest loss in the companies history?

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/339662

what a disaster and the restructuring is just beginning

[winner69]

biggest loss in the companies history?

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/339662

what a disaster and the restructuring is just beginning

No worries bull ....impairments non-cash

But the bold strategic initiatives will pull them through

Most truthful part of announcement is Mr Craig saying ‘extremely disappointing’

[winner69]

Still $35m of goodwill on books

[kiwidollabill]

Ok so let me get this straight.....

Inventory which is currently in China will be selling at 0% margin based on current value (and probably -ve if they have to discount it...).

They've writted down the goodwill of the Aus and UK business to $0, thats probably fair as the daigou channel is probably focusing on Australian Manuka - funny how A2 never complain with lower sales in Australia due to 'distruptions'

$25M of goodwill in the China BU.... However, by a rough piece of math they are sitting on enough inventory for at least a year of sales (at 0% margin...) and additional 14M of payables to come with the 51% purchase. Given this, how likely is 25M realistic and is that at risk to an additional write down if they fail to generate strong margins from thin air? The 2018 share of profit from the JV is <$2M

I suspect more pain, its going to take a long time to untie this knot.

[winner69]

Useless fact

Comvita has more inventory than A2 ...but A2 sales are nearly 8 times more than Comvita’s

[Beagle]

No worries bull ....impairments non-cash

But the bold strategic initiatives will pull them through

Most truthful part of announcement is Mr Craig saying ‘extremely disappointing’

But he goes on to say external factors conspired against them...doesn't show any "ownership" of fault of any kind on their part.
The shares are underpriced he says !

Given the recent history of poor honey harvests, adjusting for the recent changes to the regulatory environment, and under the shadow of a languishing share price that undervalues collectively the Groups non-current assets,
Always a warning sign when the directors are so delusional to think the market is wrong. Remember how Turners thought their shares were worth $3.20 :)
At least with turners they can sell their cars and buy their shares back as stock turn is okay...these guys can't do that as stock turn is less than once a year lol

They've got a lot of work to do to get to their $400m annual sales by 2020 eh, or is that 2021 now or 2031 ?

[percy]

But he goes on to say external factors conspired against them...doesn't show any "ownership" of fault of any kind on their part.
The shares are underpriced he says !

Always a warning sign when the directors are so delusional to think the market is wrong. Remember how Turners thought their shares were worth $3.20 :)
At least with turners they can sell their cars and buy their shares back as stock turn is a lot better than not even once a year lol

I think the way TRA relocated branches and new branches are performing TRA directors will be proved correct.Incredible business.,Turning over stock 8 to 10 times a year [nearly up to EBO's level] compared to CVT's once every year or two,which is a total disgrace. Next couple of TRA announcements [other than buy back] should be worth waiting for.Not far away now.
CVT who knows?
Looks as though Manuka honey was a fad.Prices have certainly come down at Pak'n Save, and it is now back on our shopping list,although Mother Earth Manuka Blend is on our avoid list, as it is horrible.

[Apathy]

But he goes on to say external factors conspired against them...doesn't show any "ownership" of fault of any kind on their part.
The shares are underpriced he says !

Always a warning sign when the directors are so delusional to think the market is wrong. Remember how Turners thought their shares were worth $3.20 :)
At least with turners they can sell their cars and buy their shares back as stock turn is okay...these guys can't do that as stock turn is less than once a year lol

They've got a lot of work to do to get to their $400m annual sales by 2020 eh, or is that 2021 now or 2031 ?

Couldn't agree more ------ was it external factors that saw their admin costs go up by 24%? or their interest costs almost double? or Sales and Marketing up 15%? they did cut R&D by just under 50% so wasn't all one way.

Fact is they haven't cleaned the skeletons at all - still far too much goodwill, SEA sits at just under $2m on balance sheet and lets not forget the stock.... clearly they got the stock past the audit but they weren't going to win both arguments. Better to take the hit on the balance sheet item that banks put less stock in.......

Next year .... 'restructuring costs'.... MPI changes forced a stock revaluation.... weather.... discounting in the market.... trade wars... Hong Kong..... losses in Chinese operation due to landing them with over priced stock.... yadda yadda yadda....... totally irresponsible making comments on share value.

[winner69]

After blaming every man and his dog about the awful share price Mr Craig did say ‘We are cognisance that a sustained recovery in the share price will occur only when we can gain the confidence of investors that the Company will be trading profitably on a sustainable basis’

Well said that man

[Lease]

I think the way TRA relocated branches and new branches are performing TRA directors will be proved correct.Incredible business.,Turning over stock 8 to 10 times a year [nearly up to EBO's level] compared to CVT's once every year or two,which is a total disgrace. Next couple of TRA announcements [other than buy back] should be worth waiting for.Not far away now.
CVT who knows?
Looks as though Manuka honey was a fad.Prices have certainly come down at Pak'n Save, and it is now back on our shopping list,although Mother Earth Manuka Blend is on our avoid list, as it is horrible.

I think TRA will have a tough year at current financial year. Have looked MIA vehicle sales stats. Jan-Jul this year used car imports are down every month except March. It seems NZ used car imports were peaked in 2017. 2018 was down 10%, and 2019 first seven months has already been down about 8%(compared to 2018). It's understandable as marco economy is getting worse thus people cut big spending like cars. TRA main source of revenue- automobile sales are likely to drop in FY20. Of course, its SP seems already reflected gloomy outlook.

[percy]

I think TRA will have a tough year at current financial year. Have looked MIA vehicle sales stats. Jan-Jul this year used car imports are down every month except March. It seems NZ used car imports were peaked in 2017. 2018 was down 10%, and 2019 first seven months has already been down about 8%(compared to 2018). It's understandable as marco economy is getting worse thus people cut big spending like cars. TRA main source of revenue- automobile sales are likely to drop in FY20. Of course, its SP seems already reflected gloomy outlook.

Anyone who took the time to attend TRA's roadshow would know differently.

[janner]

Looks as though Manuka honey was a fad.Prices have certainly come down at Pak'n Save, and it is now back on our shopping list,although Mother Earth Manuka Blend is on our avoid list, as it is horrible.

Totally agree with you perc. The population has doubled since I first landed here...
Beekeepers production has increased way, way, more than doubled.

As did the price of honey..


My off spring could always have a honey sandwich when ever they wanted one..

After all we were living in " Gods Own Country " A land of milk and honey..

Good to see that Honey is now back on every day peoples shopping list..

Could this be a sign ?..

[bottomfeeder]

What no comments recently on the results and Chairmans Report. Why has the SP spiked?

[Blendy]

I am very curious about this too! This is an opportunity to reduce my overall loss on this terrible investment... lol

[kiwidollabill]

I kinda feel Scott Coulter has been turned into the fall guy for wider problems this company has had over time (though hes not victimless.

i.e. They complain their apiary business is suffering with poor harvests but they were happy to go on a buying spree of beekeeper groups to secure supply but suffer the production risk.

Now Brett Hewlett is back as the knight in shining armor to 'hand through to the new CEO a business unshackled from legacy assets...' Never mind that he and Chairman Craig were the ones presiding on the purchase of these assets (dare we talk about the Seadragon investment....)

[Beagle]

This sort of jump on no news should trigger a please explain from the NZX if they were wide awake.

[Ogg]

As it's now no longer in the NZX50 a 'please explain' probably wasn't necessary.

It's up because of the take over of Bellamys' from Mengniu Dairy.

The Chinese are willing to pay significantly more than what the market values for premium NZ/AU food brands that export.

Ms Li Wang, has also been buying on market recently, now owns 17.21% of Comvita.

Also, the lowering of interest rates has helped Comvita's debt load. Quote from annual report:


Comvita has continued to operate within its agreed funding covenants and there is sufficient headroom on the funding facility.


A take over could be in the works at $4+

[bottomfeeder]

If there is a takeover, I have sold early again. But I didnt sell them all. I suppose better to make some worthwhile profit than hold on too long.

[Beagle]

As it's now no longer in the NZX50 a 'please explain' probably wasn't necessary.

Any company listed on the NZX is subject to the rules of disclosure of material information in a timely manner.
Thing is with Convita (deliberately misspelt)mthey have a track record of non compliance and exceptionally wild variations to forecast future performance to such an extent any investor should take anything they say with a grain of salt.

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/fb5360c3/comvita-chair-neil-craig-eyes-the-exit-once-he-finds-a-new-ceo.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Comvita%20chair%20Neil%20Craig%20eyes %20the%20exit%20once%20he%20finds%20a%20new%20CEO&utm_content=Comvita%20chair%20Neil%20Craig%20eyes% 20the%20exit%20once%20he%20finds%20a%20new%20CEO+C ID_72cb783f1c3a7df9d3d2a6b574df3702&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlefb5360c3comvit a-chair-neil-craig-eyes-the-exit-once-he-finds-a-new-ceohtml

Good he's going as he clearly can't even read the mood of a meeting for goodness sake. Good companies produce good results. Really bad companies produce never ending lists of excuses.

[Sideshow Bob]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/fb5360c3/comvita-chair-neil-craig-eyes-the-exit-once-he-finds-a-new-ceo.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Comvita%20chair%20Neil%20Craig%20eyes %20the%20exit%20once%20he%20finds%20a%20new%20CEO&utm_content=Comvita%20chair%20Neil%20Craig%20eyes% 20the%20exit%20once%20he%20finds%20a%20new%20CEO+C ID_72cb783f1c3a7df9d3d2a6b574df3702&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlefb5360c3comvit a-chair-neil-craig-eyes-the-exit-once-he-finds-a-new-ceohtml

Good he's going as he clearly can't even read the mood of a meeting for goodness sake. Good companies produce good results. Really bad companies produce never ending lists of excuses.

An interesting article - and great they got a different version of the goings on!! At least he said about the 'poor performance'.

Doesn't look any more attractive as an investment.....