Comvita - CVT

[Lola]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/fb5360c3/comvita-chair-neil-craig-eyes-the-exit-once-he-finds-a-new-ceo.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Comvita%20chair%20Neil%20Craig%20eyes %20the%20exit%20once%20he%20finds%20a%20new%20CEO&utm_content=Comvita%20chair%20Neil%20Craig%20eyes% 20the%20exit%20once%20he%20finds%20a%20new%20CEO+C ID_72cb783f1c3a7df9d3d2a6b574df3702&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlefb5360c3comvit a-chair-neil-craig-eyes-the-exit-once-he-finds-a-new-ceohtml

Good he's going as he clearly can't even read the mood of a meeting for goodness sake. Good companies produce good results. Really bad companies produce never ending lists of excuses.

BROKERS should stay as brokers.

[peat]

BROKERS should stay as brokers.

if a brokers job is to make you broker, then he was doing well at Convita.

[Balance]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/fb5360c3/comvita-chair-neil-craig-eyes-the-exit-once-he-finds-a-new-ceo.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Comvita%20chair%20Neil%20Craig%20eyes %20the%20exit%20once%20he%20finds%20a%20new%20CEO&utm_content=Comvita%20chair%20Neil%20Craig%20eyes% 20the%20exit%20once%20he%20finds%20a%20new%20CEO+C ID_72cb783f1c3a7df9d3d2a6b574df3702&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlefb5360c3comvit a-chair-neil-craig-eyes-the-exit-once-he-finds-a-new-ceohtml

Good he's going as he clearly can't even read the mood of a meeting for goodness sake. Good companies produce good results. Really bad companies produce never ending lists of excuses.

Leaving on a low and knowing Neil Craig, will be something which preys on his mind (just as Ralph Norris looks these days after the FBU debacle under his watch).

Which is a pity because Comvita did make several good strategic decisions in its early days.

Company became too arrogant and instead of building up strong strategic partnerships with its suppliers, decided to try and keep most of the spoils to itself. Bad bad mistake.

[Beagle]

It should keep him up at night Balance as this company has been an unmitigated fiasco in recent years, a total disgrace. I can't recall any company being so wildly and completely wrong with their forecasting on such a regular basis that basically any forecast from this company is rendered completely worthless. They should simply stop trying to forecast altogether and simply report their pathetic results.

One industry insider tells me there are major systemic flaws with their business model in that they ostensibly to some degree rely on beekeepers to be honest with their volume, which in this industry is not a good idea and is in some ways analogous to having an unmanned honesty box in a fruit stall. That's what I've been told....for what its worth. I see this as uninvest-able at any price.

[stoploss]

"artificial bubble " ..........
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12287982

Sad that he says he can't sell it , I think there is a difference between not being able to sell it and making a profit on the sale .....although he can't go on forever selling at a loss.
All comes down to the supply and marketing as it's still $ 6.00 for 500 grams of normal honey at the supermarket.So I'd buy a kilo off him at a decent price.

[Balance]

"artificial bubble " ..........
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12287982

Sad that he says he can't sell it , I think there is a difference between not being able to sell it and making a profit on the sale .....although he can't go on forever selling at a loss.
All comes down to the supply and marketing as it's still $ 6.00 for 500 grams of normal honey at the supermarket.So I'd buy a kilo off him at a decent price.

Bought some multi-floral manuka honey on super special for some overseas visitors last week from our local Pak n Save - 50% off.

That's how the industry is going to have to do to get rid of stock.

And stop paying stupid prices for hives etc!

[peat]

Sad that he says he can't sell it , I think there is a difference between not being able to sell it and making a profit on the sale .....although he can't go on forever selling at a loss.


at least it keeps indefinitely without spoiling.

[Beagle]

at least it keeps indefinitely without spoiling.

Convita keeps reminding its shareholders of that as its honey mountain and bank debt that funds it grows ever bigger each year.
What could possibly go wrong with this "brilliant" business plan...

[stoploss]

My local Pak n save has "Manuka Doctor "MGO 40+ 500G $ 9.99 each .

[kiwidollabill]

MGO 40+ is barely Manuka...

Early report out of Northland is that the season is favorable... not that it'll help this lot...

Quite a few smaller/recent beekeepers struggling or going down. Those that are just pack and sell are making their margins but the yellow fever is no more....

[Balance]

MGO 40+ is barely Manuka...

Early report out of Northland is that the season is favorable... not that it'll help this lot...

Quite a few smaller/recent beekeepers struggling or going down. Those that are just pack and sell are making their margins but the yellow fever is no more....

Saw that too at our local PnS - multiflora rather than pure Manuka. Good value compared to before the MPI standard kicked in.

[Beagle]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/118174280/comvita-appoints-new-chief-executive-after-troubled-year?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+14 +December+2019

A bean counting friend of mine used to work under this guy and doesn't rate him at all. I rate my fiends ability to know if anyone is good or not.
Take care out there folks.

[winner69]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/118174280/comvita-appoints-new-chief-executive-after-troubled-year?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+14 +December+2019

A bean counting friend of mine used to work under this guy and doesn't rate him at all. I rate my fiends ability to know if anyone is good or not.
Take care out there folks.

He did wonders at Methven

So good in fact he got Percy on board ....who subsequently made a small fortune when Methven taken over

Presentations from Comvita should be pretty good in future

[Beagle]

He did wonders at Methven

So good in fact he got Percy on board ....who subsequently made a small fortune when Methven taken over

Presentations from Comvita should be pretty good in future

If you put lipstick on a pig, guess what...its still a pig.

[winner69]

If you put lipstick on a pig, guess what...its still a pig.

He might be useless but he’s committed (sort off)

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CVT/346071/314078.pdf

[kiwidollabill]

Whats his skills tool box look like? Whats he going to do to change the game? Take a red line through costs, invest in innovation/marketing....?

[Sideshow Bob]

Whats his skills tool box look like? Whats he going to do to change the game? Take a red line through costs, invest in innovation/marketing....?

I would see a major difference in tapware manufacturing, to running a company marketing heavily to Asian consumers, in a hugely competitive space, with branding and consumer channels being crucial. Not to mention being a natural product with the seasonal and natural variations that gets thrown at you.

Hmmm.....

[Blendy]

up 22c! that's a big jump....

[Beagle]

^^^You must have been buying lots of special moisturizer for all your friends for Christmas.
https://www.comvita.co.nz/product/medihoney-natural-moisturising-lotion/A7649
Comes in a big container and looks far more expensive than it really is.

[Sideshow Bob]

^^^You must have been buying lots of special moisturizer for all your friends for Christmas.
https://www.comvita.co.nz/product/medihoney-natural-moisturising-lotion/A7649
Comes in a big container and looks far more expensive than it really is.

Has beeswax in it, but doesn't state honey - the beeswax must be it? :confused:

Those sort of products pretty easy to get formulated, include a couple of your special ingredients in them, and get them manufactured by specialist OEM companies.

[winner69]

The new CEO might be useless / not rated but he could be the $15m man (increase in mkt cap since announced)

And CVT haven’t even started buying their own shares yet (to give to the CEO when he starts)

[winner69]

The new CEO might be useless / not rated but he could be the $15m man (increase in mkt cap since announced)

And CVT haven’t even started buying their own shares yet (to give to the CEO when he starts)

He’s the $25 million man now

Market seems to LOVE this new guy


If that’s the reason behind the price increase

[Lease]

CVT is world No.1 Manuka Honey producer. There aren't many NZ firms called world No.1(another can be FSF but it's too big to handle) and Comvita has got great brand awareness in China. Even it made loss last year. Sales in China were still up. This year's single day(11/11) which is China's black Friday, Comvita honey is No.1 sales among all honey brands at China's big e-commerce platforms of Tmall and JD.

CVT made profit at last quarter of 2019, I expect it will make profit for 6 months ended 31 Dec. and SP should be continuing up.

[Balance]

CVT is world No.1 Manuka Honey producer. There aren't many NZ firms called world No.1(another can be FSF but it's too big to handle) and Comvita has got great brand awareness in China. Even it made loss last year. Sales in China were still up. This year's single day(11/11) which is China's black Friday, Comvita honey is No.1 sales among all honey brands at China's big e-commerce platforms of Tmall and JD.

CVT made profit at last quarter of 2019, I expect it will make profit for 6 months ended 31 Dec. and SP should be continuing up.

No big hurry with this puppy imo.

Good that a new CEO is going to be onboard from 20th Jan 2020 but there's a few things he will want out of the way first.

David will want to clear the cupboard of all of its skeletons - so expect more write-offs and one-offs when CVT reports its interim next month.

Meanwhile, CVT is half way through its $650k purchase of shares for the new CEO as part of his employment terms?

Makes little sense (imo) to be buying shares during the low liquidity Christmas/New Year period which begs the question of how well the financial team there understands market dynamics?

[Balance]

No big hurry with this puppy imo.

Good that a new CEO is going to be onboard from 20th Jan 2020 but there's a few things he will want out of the way first.

David will want to clear the cupboard of all of its skeletons - so expect more write-offs and one-offs when CVT reports its interim next month.

Meanwhile, CVT is half way through its $650k purchase of shares for the new CEO as part of his employment terms?

Makes little sense (imo) to be buying shares during the low liquidity Christmas/New Year period which begs the question of how well the financial team there understands market dynamics?

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/comvita-s-strategy-overhaul-hit-books-2021

More write-downs and expenses to be incurred as a consequence of strategy overhaul - totally to be expected.

Then, there's the capital raising to make sure the company is 'well-positioned' under the new CEO and 'new' chairman.

What mess the board and previous CEO have made of what should be an outstanding NZ story.

Really need to boot out Neil Craig whose chairmanship led the company into the mess it is in. Get rid of the bad smell.

[Cadalac123]

Can they just let a Chinese company take them over already so the shareprice can spike

[Lease]

Hopefully new CEO is able to sort out the issues.

In terms of valuation, CVT is definitely undervalued. In 2011, Cerebos offered $2.5 to acquire CVT. That time independent valuation showed CVT was worth $3.4-$4.0.

Now CVT revenue has increased by 1.2 times, profit(2018) up by 15 times, net assets up by 1.4 times. Yet SP is still under $3.

Plus CVT have successfully entered China which is the world largest consumer market. Can CVT perform like A2? not expect so but its SP should be doubled.

[bull....]

im started nibbling as a turn around play or most probably as a takeover target by the chinese esp if price keeps going lower

[kiwidollabill]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/comvita-s-strategy-overhaul-hit-books-2021

More write-downs and expenses to be incurred as a consequence of strategy overhaul - totally to be expected.

Then, there's the capital raising to make sure the company is 'well-positioned' under the new CEO and 'new' chairman.

What mess the board and previous CEO have made of what should be an outstanding NZ story.

Really need to boot out Neil Craig whose chairmanship led the company into the mess it is in. Get rid of the bad smell.

I still find it strange that the CEO in charge (Brett H) when they 'were suppose to be adapting to the market' has come up with the strategy and now the new chairman....

Reading between the lines we should expect alot of 'cost out' exercises with the new CEO

....to be a “low-cost producer of high-quality ingredients” sounds more like a Fonterra than an ATM

Doesnt paint much of an expectations of a growth company so I dont see the SP justified north of where they are for some time yet...

Devils advocate story is that they got suckered into the boom story of manuka (Brett H was touting $400M of revenue by 2020) went for growth of supply without focusing enough on the customer/market and now are in a bust when the world shifts against them - they're going into a commodity spiral... Certainly not the first time in NZ agribusiness and wont be the last (cannabis is the current poster child).

[BlackPeter]

Hopefully new CEO is able to sort out the issues.

In terms of valuation, CVT is definitely undervalued. In 2011, Cerebos offered $2.5 to acquire CVT. That time independent valuation showed CVT was worth $3.4-$4.0.

Now CVT revenue has increased by 1.2 times, profit(2018) up by 15 times, net assets up by 1.4 times. Yet SP is still under $3.

Plus CVT have successfully entered China which is the world largest consumer market. Can CVT perform like A2? not expect so but its SP should be doubled.

You forget that CVT had at that stage a huge and in no way justifiable hype premium for selling a miracle cure against every possible ailment. By now reality caught up and the market knows that they sell just another boring agricultural product without any particular health properties (well, not different from any other honey). Much of their product does not even comply with the standards for Manuka honey. Market has seen as well board and management consistently acting and forecasting over years in a highly incompetent manner.

Even if the 2011 valuation had anything to do with reality (what I doubt) - the facts have changed since then.

I see a poorly run agricultural producer with a forward PE (2019 to 2022) of around 600! This must be the order of magnitude google and amazon are running on, but they are both growth companies with management knowing what they are doing:);

Even if I ignore for them the disaster years 2019 (and 2018 and 2017 which according to management all have been "one offs" which never will happen again) and assume against all reason that from now on they will deliver what a bunch of overoptimistic analysts seems to believe - an average EPS of 21 cents for 2020 to 2022 (remember, this is only if the weather conditions will be perfect which is unheard of for this company), they might be worth a PE of 10 - say $2.10 per share.

However - given that there is the real world and a bunch of managers who failed again and again ... If you are a betting man, I think there might be better horses around to bet on.

[winner69]

Hey Lease ...the new CEO finally got Methven over the line

might do the same for Comvita

[bull....]

the new ceo did alright job at methven , sales increased every yr not by a huge amount but what do you expect in the business there in , earnings growth was not that good though could have done better.

his first job as ceo should be replacing the chairman who has done a terrible job

[bull....]

Hopefully new CEO is able to sort out the issues.

In terms of valuation, CVT is definitely undervalued. In 2011, Cerebos offered $2.5 to acquire CVT. That time independent valuation showed CVT was worth $3.4-$4.0.

Now CVT revenue has increased by 1.2 times, profit(2018) up by 15 times, net assets up by 1.4 times. Yet SP is still under $3.

Plus CVT have successfully entered China which is the world largest consumer market. Can CVT perform like A2? not expect so but its SP should be doubled.

total assets per share was $6.20 last annual report

[Lease]

You forget that CVT had at that stage a huge and in no way justifiable hype premium for selling a miracle cure against every possible ailment. By now reality caught up and the market knows that they sell just another boring agricultural product without any particular health properties (well, not different from any other honey). Much of their product does not even comply with the standards for Manuka honey. Market has seen as well board and management consistently acting and forecasting over years in a highly incompetent manner.

Even if the 2011 valuation had anything to do with reality (what I doubt) - the facts have changed since then.

I see a poorly run agricultural producer with a forward PE (2019 to 2022) of around 600! This must be the order of magnitude google and amazon are running on, but they are both growth companies with management knowing what they are doing:);

Even if I ignore for them the disaster years 2019 (and 2018 and 2017 which according to management all have been "one offs" which never will happen again) and assume against all reason that from now on they will deliver what a bunch of overoptimistic analysts seems to believe - an average EPS of 21 cents for 2020 to 2022 (remember, this is only if the weather conditions will be perfect which is unheard of for this company), they might be worth a PE of 10 - say $2.10 per share.

However - given that there is the real world and a bunch of managers who failed again and again ... If you are a betting man, I think there might be better horses around to bet on.

CVT never valued at PE low of 10. My statistics as follows.



CVT












Share Price
%
EPS

PE Ratio




Low
High
Low-High


Low
High













2020

2.5
3.4
36%
0.14

17.8571
24.2857


2019

2.92
6.7
129%
-0.6105





2018

5.6
9.21
64%
0.1825

30.68
50.47


2017

5.14
12
133%
0.2374

21.65
50.55


2016

3.92
13
232%
0.4691

8.36
27.71


2015

2.95
4.16
41%
0.2988

9.87
13.92


2014

3.3
4.25
29%
0.2612

12.63
16.27


2013

2.6
4.28
65%
0.2571

10.11
16.65


2012

1.45
2.95
103%
0.291

4.98
10.14


2011

1.35
2.8
107%
0.0182

74.18
153.85


2010

0.73
2
174%
0.1809

4.04
11.06


2009

0.8
2.32
190%
0.0271

29.52
85.61


2008

1.43
4.1
187%
-0.1704





2007

2.6
4.1
58%
0.155

16.77
26.45


2006

2
2.56
28%
0.123

16.26
20.81













Average EPS



0.12289





Average Spread


110%


239.06
483.48









/12
/12

















Average PE


19.9217
40.29



































So take lowest average PE over last 14 years, CVT SP should be 20 X 0.21=4.2

[BlackPeter]

total assets per share was $6.20 last annual report

Just remind us - which proportion of these "'assets" is the huge amount of honey they have stored (I think close to one years harvest?) and at what price point is this "asset" in their books? Will they ever be able to realize book value given the burst of the Manuka bubble and increased competition from Australia?

[kiwidollabill]

total assets per share was $6.20 last annual report

A fair chunk of of that is Intangibles/goodwill and other investments...

[BlackPeter]

CVT never valued at PE low of 10. My statistics as follows.



CVT












Share Price
%
EPS

PE Ratio




Low
High
Low-High


Low
High













2020

2.5
3.4
36%
0.14

17.8571
24.2857


2019

2.92
6.7
129%
-0.6105





2018

5.6
9.21
64%
0.1825

30.68
50.47


2017

5.14
12
133%
0.2374

21.65
50.55


2016

3.92
13
232%
0.4691

8.36
27.71


2015

2.95
4.16
41%
0.2988

9.87
13.92


2014

3.3
4.25
29%
0.2612

12.63
16.27


2013

2.6
4.28
65%
0.2571

10.11
16.65


2012

1.45
2.95
103%
0.291

4.98
10.14


2011

1.35
2.8
107%
0.0182

74.18
153.85


2010

0.73
2
174%
0.1809

4.04
11.06


2009

0.8
2.32
190%
0.0271

29.52
85.61


2008

1.43
4.1
187%
-0.1704





2007

2.6
4.1
58%
0.155

16.77
26.45


2006

2
2.56
28%
0.123

16.26
20.81













Average EPS



0.12289





Average Spread


110%


239.06
483.48









/12
/12

















Average PE


19.9217
40.29



































So take lowest average PE over last 14 years, CVT SP should be 20 X 0.21=4.2

Of course was CVT always overpriced, but don't forget it lost since this time its mojo (the manuka honey hype bubble ...). You need to deduct this amount from historic PE's (still cum hype ...).

[Beagle]

Some of their skin care products are exceptionally good, their management and governance on the other hand...

[Lease]

Of course was CVT always overpriced, but don't forget it lost since this time its mojo (the manuka honey hype bubble ...). You need to deduct this amount from historic PE's (still cum hype ...).


Hahahaha, CVT always overpriced. Why can't they keep overpriced? If someone launch take over bid, if some good stories from China or North America...........................

[bull....]

A fair chunk of of that is Intangibles/goodwill and other investments...

take out the good will and its still over $5

[bull....]

Just remind us - which proportion of these "'assets" is the huge amount of honey they have stored (I think close to one years harvest?) and at what price point is this "asset" in their books? Will they ever be able to realize book value given the burst of the Manuka bubble and increased competition from Australia?

good point time will tell if your correct. if your correct then asset/share will decline but to under $3? if there pricing on inventory is correct then selling some of the overhang of inventory would reduce debt substantially making the balance sheet look very good

anyway cant you store honey for a very long time under the right conditions therefore if it was on there books for higher value than current pricing could they not ride it out till pricing improves then sell. commodity trading?

[BlackPeter]

Hahahaha, CVT always overpriced. Why can't they keep overpriced? If someone launch take over bid, if some good stories from China or North America...........................

I sense some desperate hope of an (as I assume) holder. I wish holders all the best, but would like to point out that hope is not always a particularly successful investment strategy ...

Anyway - good luck!

[Marilyn Munroe]

This is the time of year for peak extraction.

An acquaintance in the industry reports yields well down on last year and a lower price outlook.

He put the yield decline down to colder conditions in spring and early summer blocking bees from collecting nectar.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Balance]

take out the good will and its still over $5

Watch for savage inventory write downs when new CEO has gone through with a proper audit and assessment of the state of the company and its products.

[stoploss]

Watch for savage inventory write downs when new CEO has gone through with a proper audit and assessment of the state of the company and its products.

But the older it gets the better it gets and its worth more :D:confused:

[Sideshow Bob]

Part of the problems is the industry, and the 'goldrush' mentality, where every man and his bee were in there. Bugger any quality standards, just do whatever to pump up the Manuka factor or confuse consumers, for the betterment of themselves, rather than the long-term business.

[kiwidollabill]

Watch for savage inventory write downs when new CEO has gone through with a proper audit and assessment of the state of the company and its products.

What is also happening is that alot of Manuka is failing the MPI export tests - I hear Northland and East cape. I wont go to he gory detail but my view is that the MPI test analytes were not suitable for industry use - they made a political judgement rather than a technical one on what to implement.

This will mean that this previously high grade manuka will have to be blended out with other sources....

Yes a write down should occur, if nothing else than the lowering of retail prices seen over the last 3-4yrs.

[Balance]

But the older it gets the better it gets and its worth more :D:confused:

That’s what the industry thought but sadly, that’s proven not to be the case with the bulk of the ‘manuka’ honey in storage out there.

It depends on the level of DHA in the honey in the first place as to how high the UMF or MG can go up to.

Plus, multiflora Manuka honey fetches a hugely lower price than monoflora manuka honey. I personally know of one beekeeper in Northland whose business went from hugely profitable to losses under the new MPI standard as his honey was reclassified to multiflora.

[kiwidollabill]

That’s what the industry thought but sadly, that’s proven not to be the case with the bulk of the ‘manuka’ honey in storage out there.

It depends on the level of DHA in the honey in the first place as to how high the UMF or MG can go up to.

Plus, multiflora Manuka honey fetches a hugely lower price than monoflora manuka h
oney. I personally know of one beekeeper in Northland whose business went from hugely profitable to losses under the new MPI standard as his honey was reclassified to multiflora.

Early in the boom those in the know bought honey cheap from beekeepers based on the tested values at extraction then 'aged it' to get a better grade.

Now that everyone has this trick (and can predict figure values) the $ is already priced in....

And over a certain time period/conditions the grade comes back down...

https://www.analytica.co.nz/Tests/Honey-Testing/Forecast-MG-NPA-HMF

[Balance]

What is also happening is that alot of Manuka is failing the MPI export tests - I hear Northland and East cape. I wont go to he gory detail but my view is that the MPI test analytes were not suitable for industry use - they made a political judgement rather than a technical one on what to implement.

This will mean that this previously high grade manuka will have to be blended out with other sources....

Yes a write down should occur, if nothing else than the lowering of retail prices seen over the last 3-4yrs.

Human nature suggests that pride and ego would not have allowed the BoD under Neil Craig to fully account for the mess that they presided over.

The new CEO on the other hand is fully motivated to initiate a full accounting of that mess he is going to have to clean up.

[bull....]

surprised no ones mentioned possibly the two biggest positives yet to come

1. lower honey prices will cause marginal players to leave or sell , strong players will consolidate the industry.

2. and the potential gi normous oportunity is the govt backed trademark case on NZ owning the manuka brand. a win here will be worth millions or billions in the future

[kiwidollabill]

Human nature suggests that pride and ego would not have allowed the BoD under Neil Craig to fully account for the mess that they presided over.

The new CEO on the other hand is fully motivated to initiate a full accounting of that mess he is going to have to clean up.

Brett H presided over the same mess while as CEO, will he be made accountable while he is now chairman?

[Lease]

surprised no ones mentioned possibly the two biggest positives yet to come

1. lower honey prices will cause marginal players to leave or sell , strong players will consolidate the industry.

2. and the potential gi normous oportunity is the govt backed trademark case on NZ owning the manuka brand. a win here will be worth millions or billions in the future

In this forum, I have found some active members, in most of time, exaggerate issues and ignore potentials. This may call conservative, but well, I'm not that kind of investor.

[Balance]

In this forum, I have found some active members, in most of time, exaggerate issues and ignore potentials. This may call conservative, but well, I'm not that kind of investor.

Who has been right and who has been wrong to date on CVT?

I believe that answers the question about who have been exaggerating the potential of CVT vs raising pertinent issues of concern about CVT.

[Lease]

Who has been right and who has been wrong to date on CVT?

I believe that answers the question about who have been exaggerating the potential of CVT vs raising pertinent issues of concern about CVT.

I am only saying I'm a different kind of investor. Who's been right or wrong is meaningless to me as I haven't bought CVT yet but seriously consider to jump in at current price.

[Balance]

Brett H presided over the same mess while as CEO, will he be made accountable while he is now chairman?

He resigned in October 2015 when Scott Coulter took over as CEO.

CVT delivered on the guidance provided by Brett as CEO in 2015 when the company reported in 2016.

I think that's the reason why the BoD & major shareholders ousted Neil Craig in favor of him in an effort to restore some credibility to the company.

Neil in contrast has been with the company since 2005 - presiding over its steady rise through to 2017, and then the spectacular fall since 2018.

[Balance]

I am only saying I'm a different kind of investor. Who's been right or wrong is meaningless to me as I haven't bought CVT yet but seriously consider to jump in at current price.

Ah - but you are so quick to make this comment 'I have found some active members, in most of time, exaggerate issues and ignore potentials'.

How have they exaggerate issues and ignore potential when they have been right?

[Lease]

Ah - but you are so quick to make this comment 'I have found some active members, in most of time, exaggerate issues and ignore potentials'.

How have they exaggerate issues and ignore potential when they have been right?

Sorry balance, not just CVT as I haven't viewed the previous posts. But for MPG, MHJ, FBU which I'm interested in, I have found some of active members(not necessary you) did what I said.

[Balance]

Sorry balance, not just CVT as I haven't viewed the previous posts. But for MPG, MHJ, FBU which I'm interested in, I have found some of active members(not necessary you) did what I said.

If you want an example of how issues are ignored and potentials are exaggerated, read this :

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10011-Truscreen/page31

Being an acute observer of behavior on this site, I can tell you that's the norm rather than the opposite.

[Lease]

If you want an example of how issues are ignored and potentials are exaggerated, read this :

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10011-Truscreen/page31

Being an acute observer of behavior on this site, I can tell you that's the norm rather than the opposite.

Thanks balance, no offence. Just my impression, not necessary right.

[Balance]

Thanks balance, no offence. Just my impression, not necessary right.

No offense taken Lease.

We learn everyday and learn off each other.

Cheers!

[BlackPeter]

In this forum, I have found some active members, in most of time, exaggerate issues and ignore potentials. This may call conservative, but well, I'm not that kind of investor.

Maybe this is not the right forum for you? if you don't want to read opinions which differ from yours than it might be more useful for you to write letters to yourself.

If you want however a better understanding of investor psychology (including yours ...) then it might pay to have a good read through e.g. some of the following threads: WYN, PEB, CRP, Pumpkin Patch, RAK, ... Might be fun to align the posts with where the SP (and trend) was at the time of writing. Feel free to add ATM or DIL or PPH to get some balance.

Very educational - and while nobody I know off is / was always right (including myself), it might help to get some reality check.

I find it useful to consider other reasoned views when making investment decisions (whether I follow them or not), but if you don't, maybe just go back to the first paragraph :);

I hope that this is useful for you.

[Lease]

Maybe this is not the right forum for you? if you don't want to read opinions which differ from yours than it might be more useful for you to write letters to yourself.

If you want however a better understanding of investor psychology (including yours ...) then it might pay to have a good read through e.g. some of the following threads: WYN, PEB, CRP, Pumpkin Patch, RAK, ... Might be fun to align the posts with where the SP (and trend) was at the time of writing. Feel free to add ATM or DIL or PPH to get some balance.

Very educational - and while nobody I know off is / was always right (including myself), it might help to get some reality check.

I find it useful to consider other reasoned views when making investment decisions (whether I follow them or not), but if you don't, maybe just go back to the first paragraph :);

I hope that this is useful for you.

No No No No No, I'm certainly open-mind to view all you guys opinions, for or against mine.

What I said is our investment style is quite different: you focus on risk and want very large degree of certainty. I would like to take risk but not take risk blindly surely have my own logic.

My way had some very successful experience so I'll keep going on.

[Balance]

No No No No No, I'm certainly open-mind to view all you guys opinions, for or against mine.

What I said is our investment style is quite different: you focus on risk and want very large degree of certainty. I would like to take risk but not take risk blindly surely have my own logic.

My way had some very successful experience so I'll keep going on.

Nope - we do not want very large degree of certainty - otherwise, you will not see us investing in shares like ATM or Serko or Xero.

What we want is:

Coherent strategy

Consistency of strategy

Transparency of how that strategy is being rolled out

Milestones being quantified and recaliberated as appropriate

And management and board showing that they are up to the task and are not perennial excuse makers.

Comvita fails on all fronts!

[bull....]

obviously some people dont believe in

Contrarian Investing

is an investment strategy that is characterized by purchasing and selling in contrast to the prevailing sentiment of the time. A contrarian believes that certain crowd behavior among investors can lead to exploitable mispricings in securities markets

[Balance]

obviously some people dont believe in

Contrarian Investing

is an investment strategy that is characterized by purchasing and selling in contrast to the prevailing sentiment of the time. A contrarian believes that certain crowd behavior among investors can lead to exploitable mispricings in securities markets

You mean like those of us buying Heartland when everyone was selling and Diligent when the stock was getting bagged by Milford?

[bull....]

You mean like those of us buying Heartland when everyone was selling and Diligent when the stock was getting bagged by Milford?

exactly good companies fundamentally maybe with issues at the time

[percy]

Yes good companies can have issues,while poor companies can have a good year.
Knowing the wheat from the chaff, is where the quality of your research pays off.

[Lease]

Nope - we do not want very large degree of certainty - otherwise, you will not see us investing in shares like ATM or Serko or Xero.

What we want is:

Coherent strategy

Consistency of strategy

Transparency of how that strategy is being rolled out

Milestones being quantified and recaliberated as appropriate

And management and board showing that they are up to the task and are not perennial excuse makers.

Comvita fails on all fronts!

Thanks balance, learnt from you.

[Balance]

exactly good companies fundamentally maybe with issues at the time

Comvita issues are that:

1. The golden days of super high margins for its products are over,

2. The company's cost base is too high,

3. Competitors (like Hong Leong group and China players) have entered the market - they have deeper pockets and superior distribution & marketing network in China & Asia,

4. Competitors have locked in supply contracts with numerous bee-keepers, depriving CVT of the abundant supply it used to access,

5. The new MPI standard has leveled the playing field - CVT is no longer the only standard bearer of quality manuka honey,

6. Much of the manuka honey out there are multi-flora, not mono-flora.

7. Management and board have for 4 years showed no progressive ability to tackle and manage the above issues (refer post #1565)

Let's see what the new CEO can do.

My expectations are that he will initiate a massive write-down, necessitating a capital raising and several years of 'repositioning' - even while its competitors move ahead.

[Beagle]

Good summary Balance. Add in that this company is second to only PEB on the NZX in terms of its inability to forecast anything. Their track record of consistently having massive misses with forecasts over many years is truly confronting, so much so they would simply be better to stop forecasting altogether and simply report the results.
Very good stock to avoid.

[Balance]

Good summary Balance. Add in that this company is second to only PEB on the NZX in terms of its inability to forecast anything. Their track record of consistently having massive misses with forecasts over many years is truly confronting, so much so they would simply be better to stop forecasting altogether and simply report the results.
Very good stock to avoid.

Would have some takeover appeal except:

1. They now have a hard core 17% shareholder in there & another (probably really pissed off - having paid $10.60 & $7.25 per share) 10% shareholder now so nothing is going to happen,

2. Other players have bought into the industry and set up their own brands and distributions successfully.

[Beagle]

Would have some takeover appeal except:

1. They now have a hard core 17% shareholder in there & another (probably really pissed off - having paid $10.60 & $7.25 per share) 10% shareholder now so nothing is going to happen,

2. Other players have bought into the industry and set up their own brands and distributions successfully.

One wonders how Westpac are feeling about being potentially stung for $100 million ? No worries because that honey mountain of stock could be easily liquidated, (cough cough,... has anyone got a medicated honey lozengier they could give me). They'll want to have confidence any new CFO the company may be able to hire won't be pulling beeswax over their eyes.

[Lease]

Comvita issues are that:

1. The golden days of super high margins for its products are over,

2. The company's cost base is too high,

3. Competitors (like Hong Leong group and China players) have entered the market - they have deeper pockets and superior distribution & marketing network in China & Asia,

4. Competitors have locked in supply contracts with numerous bee-keepers, depriving CVT of the abundant supply it used to access,

5. The new MPI standard has leveled the playing field - CVT is no longer the only standard bearer of quality manuka honey,

6. Much of the manuka honey out there are multi-flora, not mono-flora.

7. Management and board have for 4 years showed no progressive ability to tackle and manage the above issues (refer post #1565)

Let's see what the new CEO can do.

My expectations are that he will initiate a massive write-down, necessitating a capital raising and several years of 'repositioning' - even while its competitors move ahead.

Let me point out some potentials.

1. CVT is Number 1. honey brand sales in China. It has got large amount of loyal customers. Word of mouth will make the base even larger. Sales were over $50m in China of 2019 FY. China market size is $1.5b. It's highly possible for CVT to substantially increase market share in China.

2. Similar opportunity exists in North America with market size nearly $500m there.

3. New CEO successfully made Methven go private at nearly 40% premium on SP. It's possible he will do the same thing in CVT.

[Cadalac123]

The above points are good thoughts, but this company isn't a new company, its been one that's failed to recover. It's possible the CEO pulls a trick out of his hat and drives the SP up. Best thing would be Chinese take over imo

[kiwidollabill]

Let me point out some potentials.

1. CVT is Number 1. honey brand sales in China. It has got large amount of loyal customers. Word of mouth will make the base even larger. Sales were over $50m in China of 2019 FY. China market size is $1.5b. It's highly possible for CVT to substantially increase market share in China.

2. Similar opportunity exists in North America with market size nearly $500m there.

3. New CEO successfully made Methven go privately at nearly 40% premium on SP. It's possible he will do the same thing in CVT.

To consider:

1) Being #1 is sales doesn't necessarily mean you make a profit.
2) EVERY Manuka honey company which is struggling in China is now going after the US, it's alot harder to get penetration and scale there. Companies which have supply arrangements to large retailers over there (i.e. Costco) are not seeing the volume growth they thought would be there and are having to work alot harder than during the China boom....
3) If the SP gets beaten down more then a 40% premium would look pretty good...

[Lease]

To consider:

1) Being #1 is sales doesn't necessarily mean you make a profit.
2) EVERY Manuka honey company which is struggling in China is now going after the US, it's alot harder to get penetration and scale there. Companies which have supply arrangements to large retailers over there (i.e. Costco) are not seeing the volume growth they thought would be there and are having to work alot harder than during the China boom....
3) If the SP gets beaten down more then a 40% premium would look pretty good...

CVT did report net profit before tax in China was $5.8m in 2019 FY even though overall the company made huge loss that year. I think if CVT could reach larger scale of consumers, it would made more profit.

I feel take over bid is highly likely given the fact CVT biggest shareholder is a Chinese.

[bull....]

just back from fishing , share price is up makes a change. anyway bad management is the main cause of trouble i reckon. the major s/h keep taking shares instead of cash latest example being the buyout of the china joint venture , so they obviously rate the company otherwise would have taken all cash.

[bull....]

comvita is up today people must be buying more for the potential manuka health benefits in combating corona virus?

[winner69]

comvita is up today people must be buying more for the potential manuka health benefits in combating corona virus?

Good timing with your foray into Comvita....did u have inside info about this virus thing

[bull....]

Good timing with your foray into Comvita....did u have inside info about this virus thing

unrelated im buying as a long term contrarian play

[Blue Skies]

comvita is up today people must be buying more for the potential manuka health benefits in combating corona virus?


Someone suggested on another thread it’s antibacterial properties would be good for combating Coronavirus. But just a reminder, coronavirus is a virus, not a bacterial infection, so it wouldn’t make the slightest difference.

[bull....]

I don’t believe there are any scientifically proven health benefits from ingesting Manuka honey, only proven medical benefits are for wound dressing applications. If you are eating it, it is just very expensive honey.

while there are no cure yet for corona virus and obviosly manuka honey is not a cure it has been proven to assist in respiratory problems and also help build your immune system up.

[Balance]

Not convinced about this. Not consistent with what a senior person within the Manuka honey industry advised me.

Has always been in the perception which the industry successfully exploited and capitalized on - and good on them!

Beekeeper contact of mine makes the same point about manuka honey - great as a dressing but when it enters the body, the anti-bacterial properties are neutralised anyway!

He is still making very good money from clover honey (farmers use his hives) and as he puts it, always will because he did not pay crazy prices like the 'gold-rush' mindset which saw players paid horrendous prices to get into the manuka honey industry.

The bubble has well and truly burst with Manuka honey - it's now a commodity with a higher price point than common honey.

Go to Pak n Save and you will find multi-floral manuka honey on special there all the time now.

All the monofloral manuka honey are heavily discounted.

The diagou trade has dropped off the cliff face for manuka honey (Comvita being one of the greatest beneficiaries) with diagou players moving into other health & beauty products carrying the NZ brand.

This CVT dog has fleas and it's unfortunate that CVT cannot use manuka honey to treat it!

[BlackPeter]

Someone suggested on another thread it’s antibacterial properties would be good for combating Coronavirus. But just a reminder, coronavirus is a virus, not a bacterial infection, so it wouldn’t make the slightest difference.

Never try to combat hype with reason ... it just doesn't work.

[bull....]

Not convinced about this. Not consistent with what a senior person within the Manuka honey industry advised me.

lol i could say someone senior in the industry advised me it was good for me

[Jerry]

Once a virus has infected an individual for a while, the resulting weakness and mucus (ewww!) provides a welcome mat for secondary bacterial infection. However, I don't think honey would be any good as it is broken down in the gut. Manuka honey - rub it in!

[Balance]

https://new.grabone.co.nz/grocery-food/other-food-drink/p/the-true-honey-co-2?uid=642da6a14254d2c6b6f57d3858aebc5bb7c98b67&utm_campaign=store_20200213&utm_source=gorel&utm_medium=email

High grade Manuka honey (UMF 15+) on special on Grabone - $72 for 250g jar vs CVT's $99.99 discounted at Chemist Warehouse. Plus Grabone takes up to 33% of any sales proceeds!

Real signs of the times of how this once super premium product is now needing to be heavily discounted to move sales.

[bottomfeeder]

Lets face it, manuka honey needs to discounted, who would buy it at those exorbitant prices. However that said, still profits to be made at those special prices, thats why CVT is not at $10 /share, and probably never will be again, but I am looking for $4.00 sometime soon.
It only honey, not the elixer of youth.

[Balance]

$100 for a small pot of honey with no proven medical benefit unless you rub it on a wound. Comedy gold! And to think my economics lecturer all those years ago tried to convince me that we should base all our theories on the notion that all human beings make rational decisions.

Comvita hit gold when the China market started embracing manuka honey as a cure all for a number of ailments - just as the Chinese believes that bird nest is great for virility & better skin, and eating wild bats and lizards warm the body and ward off winter colds and flu!

It's all about perception but one suspects the perception of manuka honey as a miracle cure amongst the Chinese is wearing thin as it becomes widely available, and the supposed health benefits are more robustly tested.

[Sideshow Bob]

$100 for a small pot of honey with no proven medical benefit unless you rub it on a wound. Comedy gold! And to think my economics lecturer all those years ago tried to convince me that we should base all our theories on the notion that all human beings make rational decisions.

My economics lecturer couldn't quite convince me of humans making rational decisions - he ended up in parliament as leader of a minor political party, but probably most famous for his appearance on a reality celebrity dancing TV programmes...…...

[Balance]

Bankers decided they have had enough of the broken promises and want the debt reduced?

Sounding like it despite the usual hoopla from the broken record Comvita :

"Comvita announced its intention to undertake a capital raise, including a renounceable rights issue to existing shareholders, enabling it to deleverage the business and build resilience for the company during this phase. Craigs Investment Partners and Forsyth Barr have been appointed as joint lead managers for the raise.

Details of the rights issue are expected to be announced in mid-March. Hewlett said “While various industry analysts have expressed their concern over the Comvita gearing, the Board was comfortable that elevated debt was covered by inventory that increases in value whilst in-stock. The Board now feels that given the reset mentioned above, the time is right to address the concerns raised and in the process, de-risk the business”.

[Lease]

Hugely disappointed. But this is life, you can't win every battle.:)

[bull....]

i sold out my nibble couple weeks back for a loss but glad i did in hindsight. funny they never mentioned anything about corona virus

[Balance]

i sold out my nibble couple weeks back for a loss but glad i did in hindsight. funny they never mentioned anything about corona virus

Be grateful they did not write it as a great opportunity - just as they write about their ‘well positioned’ businesses every year since 2016 and failed to deliver.

[Ogg]

Bankers decided they have had enough



Yep, they've pulled the plug.

Doesn't say how much they are planning on raising?

Stock is going to get punished.

Starting to look alot like SeaDragon.

[bottomfeeder]

A bit disappointing. Just dont seem to have future direction. At least honey stock doesnt go off.

How could this company have reached the dizzying shareprice of the past. Never again.

Still have to hang in there.

[RGR367]

Still could not understand why the sp is still at 250 though. My punt money is at go only at 150.

[bottomfeeder]

Ouch one buyer at $1.47.

[Balance]

Yep, they've pulled the plug.

Doesn't say how much they are planning on raising?

Stock is going to get punished.

Starting to look alot like SeaDragon.

Suspect bankers will want a meaningful reduction - say $93m to $50m, so $43m capital raise.

Underwriters are going to want to get the capital raise away at as a cheap a share price as possible so realistically, around $1.50 to $1.70 per share?

Meanwhile, the financials look really really sick if you take a closer look!

Gross profit increased by $8m but -

- selling, marketing & distribution expenses increased by $13m, and administration expenses by $2.3m!

Going backwards big time!

No operating earnings to pay interest of $3.5m vs $2.7m in 2018 - even while debt is stated to have reduced! Does not make sense - can only mean CVT is paying penalty interest imo as interest rates have also been falling. Why I believe imo the banks want the debt reduced.

Real underlying loss was $16.1m - with an income tax benefit reducing the loss to what is already a bad number at $13m.

Good luck to holders!

[Dassets]

I would think the bank will require full repayment. So a cap raise of epic proportions especially where the share price is going. It basically is a wipe out of existing equity holders.

[Ogg]

I would think the bank will require full repayment.

I'm thinking this is probably more likely. Hence why they haven't said how much and also why it's an a renounceable raise. They are trying to see how much they can raise then will probably get the rest by a sub prime lender.

[Balance]

I would think the bank will require full repayment. So a cap raise of epic proportions especially where the share price is going. It basically is a wipe out of existing equity holders.

Unless existing equity holders participate fully in the capital raise.

But why put more money in a business which looks completely screwed and now, out of favor even as a takeover proposition if it gets cheap enough?

Heck, Cerebos takeover offer all those years ago looks very generous now - because of the gross mismanagement by the idiots running the show.

[Balance]

I'm thinking this is probably more likely. Hence why they haven't said how much and also why it's an a renounceable raise. They are trying to see how much they can raise then will probably get the rest by a sub prime lender.

Yup - can't say because they are still negotiating but have no choice but to report as reporting deadline up.

[Ogg]

Yup - can't say because they are still negotiating but have no choice but to report as reporting deadline up.

It might be because of the coronavirus. The bank probably wants to reduce it's risk to this. Probably did a review of it's accounts recently, then saw Comvita large sales and exposure to China and probably decided to terminate the loan agreement. Things have moved very fast, that's why it's all been rushed through now with little detail.

[bottomfeeder]

Never really understand why public companies hold long term debt. Ok they base it on return on capital. But they have access to capital raising. Its not as if they never have to pay it back. I say cease dividends and raise capital to repay all debt.

Now you might argue gearing helps you make more on the existing capital, but is that really the case.

[Ogg]

Such little turnover for a major announcement. Bizarre.

[Lease]

Cut loss and move on.

[Balance]

Cut loss and move on.

There is absolutely no reason imo for anyone half-sane now to buy the stock as the share is essentially cum-capital-raising of a indeterminable amount yet at a price which will have to be very attractive to underwrite for the brokers.

The time if anyone is interested will be during the capital raising.

Those of us with long enough memories will recall Fletcher Forests with its infamous 2 for 1 rights issue at 25c when the sp was 76c! And that sp had already fallen from $1.10 as rumours of the capital raising leaked out.

Only salvation for existing CVT shareholders will be a takeover but if that was going to happen, it would have by now. To think the sp at one stage was over $10!

[Beagle]

Suspect bankers will want a meaningful reduction - say $93m to $50m, so $43m capital raise.

Underwriters are going to want to get the capital raise away at as a cheap a share price as possible so realistically, around $1.50 to $1.70 per share?

Meanwhile, the financials look really really sick if you take a closer look!

Gross profit increased by $8m but -

- selling, marketing & distribution expenses increased by $13m, and administration expenses by $2.3m!

Going backwards big time!

No operating earnings to pay interest of $3.5m vs $2.7m in 2018 - even while debt is stated to have reduced! Does not make sense - can only mean CVT is paying penalty interest imo as interest rates have also been falling. Why I believe imo the banks want the debt reduced.

Real underlying loss was $16.1m - with an income tax benefit reducing the loss to what is already a bad number at $13m.

Good luck to holders!

Haven't had time to look but those numbers make this look like a fail of epic proportions. Why would anyone in their right mind stump up more money to throw good money after bad with their multi year history of tremendous stuff up's. You'd have to have rocks in your head, surely ?
Trying to raise capital in the middle of the virus scare and markets feeling real trepidation and with their track record...I predict a massive train wreck coming !
How many times have we heard them say we are confident of improved financial performance going forward ? Honestly, I have lost count.
You can only "cry wolf" a certain number of times before almost everyone says you're "full of it".

[moimoi]

Never really understand why public companies hold long term debt. Ok they base it on return on capital. But they have access to capital raising. Its not as if they never have to pay it back. I say cease dividends and raise capital to repay all debt.

Now you might argue gearing helps you make more on the existing capital, but is that really the case.

Equity is more costly than debt.

[bottomfeeder]

Not in this company.

[moimoi]

The dilution to existing equity from the cap raising will be costly

[Balance]

The dilution to existing equity from the cap raising will be costly

Depends on type of capital raise (pro-rata rights issue, placement to selected institutions and investors or combo) and whether existing shareholders choose to fully participate.

IN any case, one look at the chart and it's stand aside!

[Balance]

Depends on type of capital raise (pro-rata rights issue, placement to selected institutions and investors or combo) and whether existing shareholders choose to fully participate.

IN any case, one look at the chart and it's stand aside!

Sp now $2.20.

49.6m shares issued - let's assume CVT needs to raise minimum of $50m to keep the banks happy?

So $1 per existing share to be raised.

So 1 for 1 rights issue at $1.00?

Now if the banks require full repayment - will have to be a 2 for 1 at 45c?

Certainly the underwriters will want plenty of margin of safety!

[winner69]

Sp now $2.20.



It was $13 not that long ago......and punters thought they were wonderful ....even though financials (especially cash flows) were sending out messages things weren’t that good.

[bottomfeeder]

Blood on the floor here.

[Balance]

It was $13 not that long ago......and punters thought they were wonderful ....even though financials (especially cash flows) were sending out messages things weren’t that good.

The illusion failed to become the reality.

[kiwidollabill]

When the tide goes out, you can see who is swimming naked....

[Vaygor1]

always harder to sell a turd in market melt down phase


Yeah lol... Gross Profit up by $8 million.... riiiiiiiiiiiight.

Perhaps they should start specialising in how to make a silk purse out of a pigs ear.

[bottomfeeder]

Bucking the trend. What is going on here. Takeover?

[forest]

Bucking the trend. What is going on here. Takeover?

Part of yesterday's CVT announcement below.

In China we have seen online sales grow in excess of 70% in the first 10 days of March, this has materially offset the impact of fewer shoppers in traditional retail. We have seen some evidence of normalisation of shopper numbers as China attempts to return to normal. Australia and New Zealand performance continues to be negatively impacted by lower footfall through duty free and traditional retail. In North America, we have seen good performance (+50%) from our biggest retail partners and in the United Kingdom (while immaterial) we have seen sales up just under 100% in response to the above mentioned article. In addition, orders on the Comvita.com platform globally have more than doubled versus the prior comparable period last year. Offline sales channels in Asia remain impacted by travel restrictions and reduced customer footfall.

[percy]

Ordered this morning 1x 500 g Comvita Honey UMF 10+.
Prices were as follows.
Comvita................................ $109..................Freight included
The Chemist Warehouse...........$74.99...............Freight included
abetterme.co.nz......................$59.90 plus $4.95 freight Total $64.85
Look forward to receiving my order from abetterme.

[bottomfeeder]

If its all comvita honey, this shows a manufacturer or wholesaler, not competing with its outlets. Which should be the case.

[percy]

If its all comvita honey, this shows a manufacturer or wholesaler, not competing with its outlets. Which should be the case.

Arrived this morning.As purchased.
Comvita 500g UMF 10+.
Good price.Good service abetterme.

[peat]

percy how confident are you that you got exactly the same stuff as you would have if you'd bought directly from Comvita?
Sure it says it is UMF+10....
are there any product tracking mechanisms supporting the manuka

[stoploss]

Arrived this morning.As purchased.
Comvita 500g UMF 10+.
Good price.Good service abetterme.

Plenty of Manuka honey at decent prices at my local Pak n save

[percy]

Plenty of Manuka honey at decent prices at my local Pak n save

I saw them this morning at Moorhouse Ave store.
However I was acting on management's orders.
Anything for peace...lol.

[Sideshow Bob]

Less than 4 years ago this puppy was trading at $12.80.....now you can get almost 7 at that price.....;)

[ratkin]

Going gangbusters today, does it have legs?
Have not followed this company for a few years, are their pronouncements to be relied upon or are they a slippery bunch.

Fairly obvious they have only cancelled the capital raise because they would not get any, but how genuine is this upturn?

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2020/03/17/COVID-19-brings-strong-China-online-sales-for-ANZ-s-Comvita-and-AuMake?utm_source=MKT_0320&utm_campaign=Monthly_Recap&utm_medium=email#

Quoting Comvita China online sales for early March being up 70%.

[kiwidollabill]

With the virtual shut down of airline flights I am surprised not to hear much dialogue around how the daigou channel has been affected....

[jonu]

With the virtual shut down of airline flights I am surprised not to hear much dialogue around how the daigou channel has been affected....

Air freight is still moving as far as I'm aware.

[Sideshow Bob]

Air freight is still moving as far as I'm aware.

Air NZ have a scheme but very very little currently.

[kiora]

Air freight is still moving as far as I'm aware.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12320809
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/412913/air-nz-freight-flights-to-begin-tonight

[longy]

With the virtual shut down of airline flights I am surprised not to hear much dialogue around how the daigou channel has been affected....

In OZ Daigou sendign stuff via parcels instead of in person. I am expecting be similar in NZ as given the two countries are quite similar in many ways.

[BlackPeter]

In OZ Daigou sendign stuff via parcels instead of in person. I am expecting be similar in NZ as given the two countries are quite similar in many ways.

Not sure - private people sending stuff to China (or anywhere else) is not considered "essential" in New Zealand:

https://www.nzpost.co.nz/business/covid19updates/temporary-closures

NZ Post accepts at the moment only parcels from companies doing essential business, not from private people trying to make a buck by circumventing the official sales channels.

[Balance]

One of the stellar performers in the last 2 weeks but CVT has claimed the wage subsidy so revenues are down 30%?


COMVITA NEW ZEALAND LIMITED
Employees: 16
Paid $103,984.80

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CVT/349783/318581.pdf

Strong online sales but claims wage subsidy, mmm? :confused:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CVT/349783/318581.pdf

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350435

"23/3/2020, 9:26 am MKTUPDTE
Comvita Limited (“CVT”) is continuing to experience strong demand for its complete range of products (in particular Mānuka honey."

Something smells - and it's not the smell of rancid honey!

[Arthur]

Comvita's NZ based retail and tourism arm will be hard hit. Online sales out of their Chinese warehouse will not offset NZ employment at retail.

[Cadalac123]

CVT stock was behaving extremely strange and speculative even before COVID, with random rallies out of nowhere. Now it's uptrending on the general exaggeration of honey being sold out of proportion to previous years. But how much of that is directly comvita sales, they aren't exactly the only sellers of honey.

Question is have they benefited enough to fix their horrendous balance sheet?

[bottomfeeder]

I sold my last CVT holding on Thursday. Eventually made money on this one, but my sole aim was to just cover my losses which were up to $7,000 at one stage. Perhaps I sold too soon, as something us up with the SP, big increases in a short space of time. Still it would take some more positive and extraordinary news for me to stick with CVT. Only time will tell. They still need to raise that capital, and make a profit. Good Luck. I always sell to soon, but you never go broke making a profit, even though it is less than it could be by taking bigger risks.

[kiwidollabill]

Comvita's NZ based retail and tourism arm will be hard hit. Online sales out of their Chinese warehouse will not offset NZ employment at retail.

I'm not sure how much of the daigou channel which they rely on is up and running. Some pretty large (hole in the wall) shops which send stuff straight to China which will be unable to operate.

[nevchev]

Wow,what happened?Came off over 11%

[bottomfeeder]

I dodged a bullet. I sold out at $3.06 and saw the SP go up further. I thought while I made money, I sold too early. I was lucky, crazy market. Just what is going on with CVT. Looks like someone changed their mind about taking over the whole shooting box all of a sudden.

[bottomfeeder]

Yoyo SP. You have to be quick. I was going to buy back this morning at $2.70. Just too fast for me.

[bottomfeeder]

WTF just too hard to predict SP in this climate. Announcement is vague as regards dollar amounts and effect on profit, so am a little amazed that the SP jumps so quickly. Reminds me of a few losers in the past few years (Wynard) which gave so much positive news without quantification, yet the SP just kept going north.

[bull....]

on a tear , mentioned on the thread covid 19 would be good for the stock

[bull....]

comvita is up today people must be buying more for the potential manuka health benefits in combating corona virus?

looking overbrought now

[winner69]

looking overbrought now

You did well on that trade mate ...well done

[bull....]

You did well on that trade mate ...well done

i said it was a contrian play , you only had to look how people were buying up vitamins etc during the march to see the potential. i told balance i sold just to inflate his ego cause he was rambling on about how much dog it was lol

[bull....]

cvt on fire again today

[Arthur]

I'm not sure if there has been a time when so much has gone right for Comvita. Their investments in plantings is paying off. Honey quality and quantity has gone ballistic. Perceived health products sales rocketing Internationally. NZ inc seen as top shelf globally, There is stock in their Chinese warehouse to service the huge demand and sales are eroding debt faster than Phar Lap on a good day.

[catchbag]

Ah, whats happened today?

[flyer]

Ah, whats happened today?

Got about $2 per share a head of itself

[catchbag]

Good to know, a day after investing again :(

[Deeks]

Still 5%+ up for the week, I'll happily take that

[bull....]

did mention it was looking overbrought

[Not The Chosen One]

Another decent climb after yesterdays rollercoaster. My CVT shares went down almost as soon as I purchased them but are now 40% up which I'm pretty happy with considering my overall portfolio is quite small

[dartMonkey]

Looks to have broken the upward trend line that started towards the end of March. Looks to have support at $4 so wondering whether it's going to go into a trading range from $4 to somewhere between $4.30 and <$5 for the next wee while. Not prepared to hold over the weekend so I've pulled the pin.

[Sideshow Bob]

Why not join the crowd and raise some cash?? @$2.50

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/353841

Comvita announces NZ$50 million equity raising


28/5/2020, 8:49 amOFFER
Comvita Limited (Comvita) has today announced its intention to raise approximately NZ$50 million via a NZ$20 million placement (Placement) to institutional investors, together with an approximately NZ$30 million 1 for 4.15 pro-rata accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer (Entitlement Offer) (together the Offer). The Offer is fully underwritten by Craigs Investment Partners Limited and Forsyth Barr Group Limited.
Included in this announcement is:
• Offer Announcement
• Offer Document
• Investor Presentation
• NZX Corporate Action Notice
• Cleansing Notice

[Sideshow Bob]

Now in a halt.

[sb9]

Explains why its been in such high price gyrations over past couple of weeks...

[Cadalac123]

This is a common trap set by a lot of companies with horrendous balance sheets who all of a sudden spike on sentiment or hype . Enter and exit don’t sit there hoping for a magic fix

[dartMonkey]

Glad to have got out when I did. So much for support at $4. I confess I nearly bought in at the close day before yesterday. Nearly bought in yesterday at the close too.

[bull....]

2.50 im getting a bargain for a great company

[Nigel]

$2.50 seems like a big discount.

[jonu]

2.50 im getting a bargain for a great company

I take it you've been caught holding more than you would like eh bull...? Got caught on the wrong side of the bounce?

[bull....]

I take it you've been caught holding more than you would like eh bull...? Got caught on the wrong side of the bounce?

as mentioned on the thread i started nibbling a while back around $3 as a contraian play , nibbling means you keep nibbling to you get your fill.
i told balance i sold to inflate his ego cause i got sick of his down ramping of how bad the company was but have always said on here it was bad management that has caused a lot of the problems and that can be fixed.

[bottomfeeder]

Yes, its all clear now. I wondered why the SP was going north. I sold out a few weeks ago. CVT cancelled the CR when the SP went down below $3. I am not fully convinced we are getting the right picture here.
Sentiment: SELL but not Holding.

[Deeks]

Is this good or Bad if i'm a shareholder ? Lets say i bought at $3.50

[kiwidollabill]

Find the NBR headline humorous "Comvita raising $50m to fund growth"....

All of the $ is going to repay debt and transaction fees....

[kiwidollabill]

$3.81 at slightly over 40% dilution gets you to $2.72. Based on published forecast gets you to EV/EBITDA of ~10-11 probably now fair for CVT...

[bottomfeeder]

Seen it again and again, SP should drop to close to CR value, at least in the short term.

[Deeks]

Is this good or bad for someone currently holding. Bought at $3.50 ?

[Balance]

Is this good or bad for someone currently holding. Bought at $3.50 ?

Bad if you do not front up and take up the rights issue - you will get diluted.

Also, note that the capital raising is heavily in favor of institutions:

1. Institutions get their new shares first and can trade them from 3rd June.

2. Retail shareholders can only trade the new shares from 19th June.

[bottomfeeder]

Seen it again and again, SP should drop to close to CR value, at least in the short term.
Just my opinion. Hate for anyone to listen to me, after all I get it wrong as much as I get it right.

[Joshuatree]

$3.81 at slightly over 40% dilution gets you to $2.72. Based on published forecast gets you to EV/EBITDA of ~10-11 probably now fair for CVT...

Fixed price of NZ$2.50 per share which represents a discount of:


- 34.4% to the last close on Wednesday, 27 May of NZ$3.81; and

- 27.2% to the theoretical ex-rights price of NZ$3.43 (based on Comvita’s last close price on Wednesday 27 May and reflecting the issue of all new shares under the Offer)

Very tasty.

[Ogg]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CVT/353904/323552.pdf


eligible institutional shareholders elected to take up 10% of their entitlements

WTF?

[traineeinvestor]

Fixed price of NZ$2.50 per share which represents a discount of:


- 34.4% to the last close on Wednesday, 27 May of NZ$3.81; and
- 27.2% to the theoretical ex-rights price of NZ$3.43 (based on Comvita’s last close price on Wednesday 27 May and reflecting the issue of all new shares under the Offer)

Very tasty.






Unless of course, you happen to be a shareholder in which case you just got royally screwed.

Disclosure: very happy not to be a holder right now.

[Joshuatree]

Yes the major holder/s disclosed they were not taking theirs up.Got 72%of my application.

[bull....]

Yes the major holder/s disclosed they were not taking theirs up.Got 72%of my application.

raking it in 2.50 spp vrs 3.55 on market price well done. once the debt paid off they will be in a very good position

[sb9]

I'm picking this will slowly drift down to below $3 mark as current holders look to lock in some profits before they get their new discounted shares.

[bull....]

I'm picking this will slowly drift down to below $3 mark as current holders look to lock in some profits before they get their new discounted shares.

i dont know about $3 but im sure there will be some people who see a 40% gain as tempting if they wish to reduce some holding. guess it depends on your long term view of value

[dzhang1510]

@Joshuatree

How many did you apply for? I only got 20%. Got told was heavily over subscribed

[Arthur]

@Joshuatree

How many did you apply for? I only got 20%. Got told was heavily over subscribed

How did you guys get access to the institutional offer?

[macduffy]

How did you guys get access to the institutional offer?

Probably clients of one of the underwriters. If an offer's worth having, the usual result is to get nothing, or very little, but a lot of applications make up the numbers and contribute to an impressive degree of over-subscription.

;)

[kiora]

How did you guys get access to the institutional offer?

Habitual investors likely

[Joshuatree]

How did you guys get access to the institutional offer?

Yes ive had relationship with Craigs for a while now so they now offer me the odd titbit. Dzhang, yes 20-22% but someone must have dropped out and i was just lucky on the day.

Right on Mac, thats what often happens,dissapointment at the scraps one gets. Im about to apply for Wholesale investor status so may get bumped up a bit.

Your previous post Arthur was one of the few accurate posts on Comvita atpit, thanks.

[bull....]

milford joined the register

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CVT/353961/323621.pdf


one of the best fundees out there

[Beagle]

A company with a very poor and chequered history and an extremely dubious past when it comes to forecasting anything.
It remains to be seen whether anyone got a bargain with the history of this pup.
"eligible institutional shareholders elected to take up 10% of their entitlements"
What this clearly says is despite the apparent deep discount to previously traded prices existing institutional shareholders have had an absolute gut full of broken promises, B.S. forecasts and management ineptitude. Turnover was supposed to be $400m this year...anyone on here remember that ?

Just a reminder, they lost just on $13m at the half year result announced in late February. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/349069
ANYTHING this company says about the future needs to be read with deep scepticism and being fully cognisant of their multiple wildly missed forecasts in the past.
One also needs to be fully cognisant that honey harvests vary widely from one year to another and just because they might be having a better year this year doesn't mean it won't all turn to custard again next year. A smart approach is to look at their average performance over the last few years (which reflects average climatic conditions) and then ask yourself if this company is actually a viable entity in its current form ?

Disc: Don't own, not short and not interested at any price. Just posting this as a warning that the very best guide to the future is the most recent past !

Others will have a completely different view because now its different, or so they think, and they're perfectly entitled to their opinion too and good luck to them.

[tommy_d]

ANYTHING this company says about the future needs to be read with deep scepticism and being fully cognisant of their multiple wildly missed forecasts in the past.
i haven't been following their reported value of assets held since a few years ago, however, two points should be checked by anyone looking at buying:



The market value for beehives spiked from a couple of hundred dollars up to a thousand dollars over a short period a few years ago when there were loads of people trying to start honey/beekeeping businesses. There are now large numbers of hives available for under $200. What do comvita value their hives at?
A year or so back the rules around what could be exported as "manuka honey" changed, resulting in a massive devaluation of many held honey inventories. There are literally thousands of tonnes of honey in drums in NZ at the moment, with producers unable to find a wholesale buyer at a price above the cost of production. How is comvita valuing their honey inventory?


Their reported NTA is $2.20, it would be interesting to see whether considering the above two points would bring their NTA nearer $1

[Joshuatree]

Thanks, timing is everything and how long in for.

[Deeks]

Has anyone applied for the retail rights offer today ? The link at Comvitashareoffer.co.nz will not open for me

[bull....]

plenty of volume going thru at the moment , must be plenty of people cashing in there quick gains

[Arthur]

Has anyone applied for the retail rights offer today ? The link at Comvitashareoffer.co.nz will not open for me

Worked for me. Give Link a call
Telephone: +64 9 375 5998
www.linkmarketservices.co.nz


applications@linkmarketservices.co.nz

[Deeks]

All sorted now, Thanks.

[glitch]

Can anyone shed any light on this;
A couple of big players (Craigs and someone else) are "backing" the current issuing, which i understand means that any shares not taken up by the current shareholders will be purchased by the backers, so this ensures that all the shares that CVT issued (8 million?) would be "sold", and CVT get their money to invest in the company, pay down debt etc.
Lets say Craigs has to purchase a bunch of shares - would they sell those shares to their customers, put them straight on the market? Is there any motivation for Craigs to *not* dump a bunch on the market?
Also, what do Craigs (or any other backer) get in return for "backing" the offer? They already could purchase shares (they would be entitled to some ratio of currently held shares by the fact that their clients no doubt hold quite a few CVT already), so why take the risk that between the offer announcement and the deadline, something disastrous happens and you have to buy almost all the offer, but the market price is already below the share offer price?
Do they get paid for the "insurance" they provide the company?
Thanks in advance for your thoughts!
M

[Joshuatree]

Hi glitch , annoucement below means no worries. New shares can trade today.So far there has been minimal volume, profit taking, looking good but see how it goes.
"Comvita Limited (Comvita) is pleased to announce that it has successfully completed the retail entitlement offer component (Retail Entitlement Offer) of its 1 for 4.15 pro-rata non-renounceable accelerated entitlement offer (Entitlement Offer) as announced on Thursday, 28 May 2020. A total of NZ$50 million was raised under the Entitlement Offer and the institutional placement (Placement).
The Retail Entitlement Offer closed at 5pm (NZST) on Friday, 12 June 2020 and raised gross proceeds of NZ$15.8 million. The Retail Entitlement Offer received very strong support from Comvita’s Eligible Retail Shareholders.
Comvita successfully completes Retail Entitlement Offer (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/354810)


"As a result of the effective take-up rate of approximately 105%, shareholders who applied for allocations via the oversubscription facility will be scaled on a pro-rata basis. This means that shareholders will receive 100% of their own entitlements for which they applied and approximately 87% of their applications for New Shares above their own entitlements.

There will be no Shares allotted to the underwriters and sub-underwriters of the Retail Entitlement Offer."

[Not The Chosen One]

I got an approval of my shares but they're not showing through Link Market Services today. Anyone else have theirs today or still waiting like me?

[Joshuatree]

Sorry cant help i bought my $2.50 shares from my broker some weeks ago.Maybe Monday will be the test re profit taking.

[Shareguy]

Coronavirus: UK shopper buys $62,000 worth of rare mānuka honey as demand surges
ESTHER TAUNTON
Trustworthy, accurate and reliable news stories are more important now than ever. Support our newsrooms by making a contribution.

Contribute Noworange-arrow
Somewhere in Northland, bees are busy making a honey so sought-after one shopper bought $62,000 worth in a single transaction at UK department store Harrod's.

While the exact location of the True Honey Company's hives is a closely guarded secret, the popularity of its Rare Harvest mānuka honey is spreading like wildfire.

The Harrod's sale, involving 25 jars of Rare Harvest honey at more than $2500 each, might have been "one of note" for an individual customer, but business has boomed since the outbreak of coronavirus, chief executive Jim Mcmillan said.

“We've experienced a significant uplift in demand for premium honey from around the globe.

READ MORE:
* Mānuka honey selling for $2700 a jar is being snapped up at Harrods
* Mānuka honey not routinely tested for added substances despite fears of corrupt producers
* Comvita forecasts $6m loss after third poor honey harvest in row

“There is a pretty strong correlation between the health benefits of mānuka honey and Covid-19,” he said.


ADVERTISEMENT
The coronavirus pandemic has led to increased global demand for health foods and mānuka honey, known for its antioxidant, anti-inflammatory and antibacterial properties, is caught up in the surge.


SUPPLIED
True Honey chief executive Jim McMillan says demand for mānuka honey has spiked after the coronavirus outbreak.
The spike in demand for its honey was so strong that while many other businesses struggled to stay afloat during lockdown, True Honey took on 18 new employees at its Dannevirke facility.


About 40 more were hired by two Auckland businesses providing packaging and other supplies to True Honey, McMillan said.

“We've been working flat out, doing whatever we can to try to keep up with orders, but we still have a bit of a backlog.”

Rare Harvest has the highest unique mānuka factor (UMF) ever produced at 31+, more than six times the UMF of some mānuka honeys commonly sold in supermarkets.

UMF denotes the level of purity of the active properties of the honey.


STUFF
Businesses are going to great lengths to keep fake honey off the market.
McMillan said the increasing global awareness of New Zealand and its mānuka honey presented a real opportunity for “NZ Inc”.

“We've put a lot of time and effort into crafting a business that can offer a premium, 'best in class' product with a real focus on the New Zealand brand,” he said.

“There's an opportunity now, while consumers are looking for those pure and healthy primary products, for New Zealand to really set itself apart.”


SUPPLIED
The location of the True Honey Company's hives is top secret.
However, it was also important the Ministry for Primary Industries and wider government took steps to protect the country's international reputation, particularly around mānuka honey.

"MPI developed and enforce a robust definition of what mānuka honey actually is. Producers are bound pretty tightly by that and personally, I'm very supportive of it.

“But the Government has a responsibility now to educate consumers about what that is and to make sure when we send bulk drums of honey to countries with no definition of mānuka, it reaches consumers in the same state as we ship it in.”

[Joshuatree]

I missed this paragraph in march, immune building is in!.

Comvita Limited (“CVT”) is continuing to experience strong demand for its complete range of products (in particular Mānuka honey, Propolis, Fresh-Picked™ Olive Leaf Extract) from all markets over the last month. For example, we are seeing the best sales of Fresh-Picked™ Olive Leaf Extract in over seven years. We see good evidence that consumers are actively choosing products considered to support general immunity.

[Timesurfer]

Interesting that they have liquidated a Nelson factory.

[Sideshow Bob]

Interesting that they have liquidated a Nelson factory.

Wasn't that back in February? https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/119676088/comvita-closes-nelson-plant-citing-need-for-considerable-investment-to-keep-going

[Joshuatree]

It was and im assuming the liquification was high UMF :)
Pleasing to see minimal profit taking from the $2.50 takeup.Just need a good update now to get the s/p moving .

[Shareguy]

Good to see the sp increasing this week. Was there a broker report released ?.

[Joshuatree]

Didnt see one but new CFO a positive.



Comvita announces Chief Financial Officer appointment (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355823)

Nigel is a highly experienced CFO. The foundations of his career were built in audit at Deloitte, and he went on to gain extensive finance and commercial experience through executive appointments with Lyttelton Port Company Ltd, Gough Group Ltd and Crane Distribution NZ Ltd. Nigel then spent more than a decade with Synlait Milk Ltd as CFO, where he played an instrumental role in growing revenue from $100m to $1bn.

[BlackPeter]

Didnt see one but new CFO a positive.



Comvita announces Chief Financial Officer appointment (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355823)

Nigel is a highly experienced CFO. The foundations of his career were built in audit at Deloitte, and he went on to gain extensive finance and commercial experience through executive appointments with Lyttelton Port Company Ltd, Gough Group Ltd and Crane Distribution NZ Ltd. Nigel then spent more than a decade with Synlait Milk Ltd as CFO, where he played an instrumental role in growing revenue from $100m to $1bn.

Agreed - I think he left Synlait before the mess around Pokeno became public, maybe voting with his feet?

[tango]

The new CFO looks promising.
Are CVT due to make any more announcements around results?

[Joshuatree]

Update would be timely before results (2nd of August last year)

[tango]

Update would be timely before results (2nd of August last year)

Ah, thanks
I owned CVT for years and sold out then bought back in recently but I bought at higher than current prices and am undecided how strong CVT are going forward and wondering if I am wise to hold and hope they rise or let them go and focus on increasing my other shares instead.

I liked the increased sales in China. That looks promising. The New Zealand sales may not be as strong now that CV19 is less of an issue.

[Joshuatree]

Im only in because i was offered some by my broker recently @$2.50 plus commission. I havnt researched it well.Theyve had some rough years honey production wise and arguably management wise. since replaced (chairman too). Some say there is a glut of honey sitting around in NZ going nowhere. I dont know but understand Comvita is the no 1 trusted honey brand in china and the UMF increases with age. Read beagles posts, hes an accountant and analyse's ann reports well although i feel he is a bit biased about CVT going ahead. Due to Global uncertainties i may take profits at any time

Strong demand continues and honey harvest above expectation (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/351844)

[tango]

Im only in because i was offered some by my broker recently @$2.50 plus commission. I havnt researched it well.Theyve had some rough years honey production wise and arguably management wise. since replaced (chairman too). Some say there is a glut of honey sitting around in NZ going nowhere. I dont know but understand Comvita is the no 1 trusted honey brand in china and the UMF increases with age. Read beagles posts, hes an accountant and analyse's ann reports well although i feel he is a bit biased about CVT going ahead. Due to Global uncertainties i may take profits at any time

Strong demand continues and honey harvest above expectation (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/351844)

Yeah I would have grabbed it at $2.50 if it had been offered to me!
The olive leaf extract is antiviral according to some in the natural health industry and CV19 makes it attractive

[bottomfeeder]

Can't see NZ as a large global player selling olive leaf extract. Olives are a staple in Mediterranean countries. More hype than reality. But looking forward to results update. Hope it takes the SP to dizzying heights.

[tango]

But looking forward to results update. Hope it takes the SP to dizzying heights.

Don't we all!

[Shareguy]

This was in Friday’s Taupo times. I’m thinking Comvita also must be having a large uplift in demand and expecting a good result soon. I have seen several reports regarding increased demand . Time will tell I guess

I have brought lots and intend to buy more .

$3000 honey jars create a buzz
Chris Marshall



Slick marketing definitely, but is it art?

When Taupō based honey company Zealandia Honey ended up with a batch of manuka honey whose potency was hundreds of times above average it sought to sell it in a correspondingly special vessel.

This may have bumped the price up to US $2020 (NZ $3100) for a 200 gram bottle – but the 120 jars have all sold.

All to one buyer who didn’t want to have his identity known, said Sri Jyothi Govindaraju, Zealandia Honey’s head of marketing and sales.

READ MORE:
* Manuka Health opens new multi-million dollar Wairarapa factory
* The beauty secrets of manuka honey
* Threat to Kiwi manuka industry from the Oz Honey Project

“One buyer in the Middle East,” she said, “and he’s onsold some of it and gifted some of it. He’s someone who might own five or six Ferraris.”


ADVERTISEMENT
The “magic ingredient” is methylglyoxal or MGO, said Robin De Geus, the company’s chief strategy officer said at a launch of the special reserve honey in Taupō’s Lava Glass Glassblowing Studio and Art Gallery on Saturday.

“In other honeys it will be around 0-30 milligrams per kilogram,” said De Geus, “in ours it is 1717 milligrams per kilogram. There have been honeys ranging from everywhere in between and some around 1700 before us.”


So it’s some of the most potent manuka honey around and, while the trim, besuited De Geus is fairly laid back in his sales pitch, he can wax lyrical with a ‘but wait there’s more…’

“The cool effect about this honey is it will mature over time. Our research and development company says it will get to 2000 mgs probably in one year’s time. It’s like a good whisky or a wine or cheese.”


Chris Marshall/Stuff
Robin De Geus waxing lyrical on how Zealandia Honey decided to come up with art as packaging for its high potency manuka honey.
The honey, Zealandia’s website says, has already been maturing since harvest in 2015.

Hydrogen peroxide gives most honey its antibiotic quality. But some types, including manuka, contain other ingredients, such as MGO which appears to have an antibacterial effect on Escherichia coli (E. coli), Staphylococcus aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa, a pathogen which generally affects the immunocompromised and has a natural resistance to antibiotics.

Methylglyoxal usually only appears in small quantities.

“This particular honey came from Northland. Eighty per cent of our honey comes from the Central Plateau but only in Northland does it get the ultra-high potency because of the heat and less moisture,” said De Geus.

The company’s chief executive officer, researcher and food scientist, and Govindaraju’s husband, Sunil Pinnamaneni, who has been in honey for 10 years, and works with selected beekeepers to buy honey for the company, had “never seen a honey like this before,” noted De Geus.

At Saturday night’s launch, De Geus and Govindaraju related how they managed during Covid-19 lockdown to coordinate three artists – glassblower Lynden Over, wood turner, Robbie Graham and sculptor Raynor Dunn – to produce the 120 individually blown jars, individually fitted tops and sculpted metal surround, containing nutritional panel and blurb.


Chris Marshall/Stuff
Sri Jyothi Govindaraju at the launch of Zealandia Honey's special reserve manuka honey.
A film production by Joel Corbie accompanied the unveiling to suppliers and guests.

While the unique vessel was a way of creating a buzz for the company, it was also something the purchasers would continue to appreciate, said De Geus, after parting with the symbolic price of US $2020.

“And that’s what we wanted… glass is a beautiful medium, that was the start.”

They then needed the wood tops to be individually turned and be able to seal with an o-ring.


Chris Marshall/Stuff
Glassblower Lynden Over at the launch.
“And we needed the legal requirements like the nutritional panel. I live close to the bush in Omori, Ray lives up on the hill and I thought that guy makes amazing sculptures so around the jar we had metal we could engrave the text on.

“It’s very important for us that the artists’ work is more than just an object – it’s a skill, experience and importantly how we feel seeing it or using it.

“Are people going to accept it – it’s like making a painting. People have to like it for people to buy it.”

[bottomfeeder]

Market seems to like results announcement. Wonder how far it will go. $4.00?

[Shareguy]

Terp was $3.43. I think $4 is going to happen sooner than you think. Company has little debt , plenty of A1 stock , a top ceo and from the people I have been speaking too large demand at very good prices.

Neil Craig a director spend $890k for new shares alone in the capital raise.

[Nigel]

Good to have this confirmation of solid earnings for the year. PE ratio looking attractive for a company with good growth prospects, and balance sheet much stronger post cap-raise. I've also heard good things about the CEO and org transformation. Bright future ahead (famous last words!).

[BlackPeter]

Good to have this confirmation of solid earnings for the year. PE ratio looking attractive for a company with good growth prospects, and balance sheet much stronger post cap-raise. I've also heard good things about the CEO and org transformation. Bright future ahead (famous last words!).

Is this the company which tended to have after one good year three or four unexpected bad years until they run out of excuses ...? Next good year coming?

[nztx]

Is this the company which tended to have after one good year three or four unexpected bad years until they run out of excuses ...? Next good year coming?


Show me the dividend being restored, then I might feel slightly more inclined to look closer ..

[BlackPeter]

Show me the dividend being restored, then I might feel slightly more inclined to look closer ..

Lets not get carried away ... just the claim that last year was not too bad should be for long suffering shareholders reward enough :):

Of course they will need to save some money for the next streak of unexpectedly too wet, too cold or too hot weather. These things just happen, you see ...

[Balance]

Lets not get carried away ... just the claim that last year was not too bad should be for long suffering shareholders reward enough :):

Of course they will need to save some money for the next streak of unexpectedly too wet, too cold or too hot weather. These things just happen, you see ...

Thanks, BP for the timely reminder of how weather dependent this stock is. Need to price that risk into the stock.

[bottomfeeder]

Some movement today, wondering if this is a readjustment from results, or something else.

[Getty]

It appears to have got rid of the overhang & profit taking from the SPP, and just getting back to normal trading

[bull....]

profit taking from spp probably finished , looking forward to result

[macduffy]

It appears to have got rid of the overhang & profit taking from the SPP, and just getting back to normal trading

Now for getting rid of that honey overhang!

[Beagle]

Lets not get carried away ... just the claim that last year was not too bad should be for long suffering shareholders reward enough :):

Of course they will need to save some money for the next streak of unexpectedly too wet, too cold or too hot weather. These things just happen, you see ...

A more fulsome list of risks is appropriate.
Too hot
Too Cold,
Too Wet,
Too dry,
Pestilence,
Disease,
Covid 19 effects,
Deep economic recession,
Cheap counterfeit Chinese copies,
Inexact and confusing Govt definitions of what exactly is manuka honey,
Inconclusive or unexhaustive independent research on its benefits compared to other honey's
Oversupply and pricing issues
New Australian supply coming onto the market
Questions as to the effectiveness or otherwise of the board
Questions as to the effectiveness or otherwise of management

...I've probably overlooked at least a few other concerns. Really a weather dependent agricultural stock with no clear track record of growth deserves a PE of no more than 10 times the average of the last five years earnings in my opinion.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CVT/341224/307981.pdf
In the last 5 years their average profit has been $6.0m. There is no real growth as the top line shows in the five year comparison in the financial statements I have provided a link for. There are current 69.8m shares.

When you look at the shares in that light there's obviously a lot of blue sky and puffery built into the share price, still. They have such an appallingly bad track record at predicting and forecasting anything the board could do everyone a favour by simply keeping their mouth shut and reporting results along with their usual excuses and any new ones they can think of every six months. This is one very high risk stock I am happy to avoid.

[Shareguy]

Agree with all your comments . All companies have a risk profile and anyone who is worried regarding this company should not invest. However I see a refreshed company with little debt , plenty of High quality stock that has been independently checked, a top ceo and a insider who has brought plenty . Plus the demand side by all accounts is strong and I expect this to continue. Costs are lower and margin higher moving forward.

I agree, high risk like a lot of stocks ....but high reward and have Just put the proceeds of Met into this stock. Apart from all the above I also can see a takeover on the cards.🧚

[Beagle]

Good luck with it. I note sales for the first half of $94m and just over $100m in the second half.
I would have thought with Covid 19 ravaging the world people would have been keener than that to boost their immunity if indeed this stuff is the elixir of great health it purports to be and somewhat better than any old common honey variety available for a fraction of the price.
Good they got their debt down (probably told too by the bank, or else !) and stock is finally starting to be reduced.
One swallow does not a summer make. This is one that has it all ahead of them to prove there is more than just potential to this story and they really can get back to decent earnings on a sustainable and regular basis.

[Shareguy]

Thanks Beagle. Time will tell if I’m right and the “money is in the honey “

[winner69]

Jeez ..Roundup in manuka honey

On TV tonight

[tango]

I saw that too although CVT implied that their honey doesn’t have glyphosate.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/weed-killer-glyphosate-found-in-new-zealand-s-m-nuka-honey

[bottomfeeder]

CVT checks all their honey. Others only check samples. Presumably CVT excludes honey from production line if they have traces of roundup.

[tommy_d]

CVT checks all their honey. Others only check samples. Presumably CVT excludes honey from production line if they have traces of roundup.

context: sensitivity of testing has improved orders of magnitude in a fairly short space of time.

i'd need to check, but i think glyphosate in honey only became a labeling "thing" after some honey company started testing for it and using their negative test results against the nil reported results from competitors to imply that anyone not stating "roundup free" was tainted.

might have been midland/puriti? or comvita? not sure who was first

[bottomfeeder]

CVT will have to issue a statement clarifying their position. Bloody media at it again. They just love the dramatics. CVT down 14 cents today.

[Shareguy]

Thought this article in stuff this week is of interest.

Global surge in demand for NZ Manuka honey keeping airlines busy

28/07/2020
Dan Lake
New Yorkers are particularly keen to spread the sweet treat. Photo credit: Getty/Newshub
Just as a bee becoming airborne is key to the production of honey, getting the honey airborne itself is absolutely essential for Aotearoa's Manuka honey industry.

And as the world battles one of the biggest health crises in its history, demand for our honey has skyrocketed, with one airline transporting 10 tonnes of the product to New York alone during lockdown.

Egmont Honey says it was one of many businesses saved by the continuation of cargo flights to and from New Zealand during the COVID-19 pandemic.


"This past season has been really good for Egmont Honey," said the company's owner James Annabell.

"In terms of COVID-19, we were actually lucky to have seen an uplift in sales in both domestic and global markets.
His company relies on orders from markets such as the US and UK, but being able to continue production and trading this year meant there was also a boost in local orders too.

"I think anything to do with immunity and natural health people can't get enough of at the moment, especially overseas," said Annabell.

"Manuka honey has a huge range of health benefits and we find that people are turning to honey as an alternative to sugar."

Cathay Pacific is one of a handful of airlines continuing some cargo flights in and out of New Zealand. It's operating daily flights between Auckland and Hong Kong as part of a codeshare agreement with Air New Zealand, using its A350-900 aircraft to take Aotearoa's fresh meat, seafood, produce and honey to markets in Asia and beyond.


Data given by Cathay Pacific to Newshub shows the airline carried more than 417 tonnes of freight out of Auckland during New Zealand's lockdown period.

"I'm proud to say we did our bit to keep the economy going," said the airline's South West Pacific regional general manager Rakesh Raicar.

"We were able to utilise freighter fleet and passenger flights leaving Auckland to move a lot of cargo."

During April and May, 135 tonnes of medical supplies were transported overseas, with the majority sent to London and Chicago.

The airline also said it carried 25 tonnes of Manuka honey during lockdown, with 10 tonnes destined for New York alone.

Raicar described the boost in demand for honey as "huge" and a seven-fold increase on previous years.

[Deeks]

The delay in announcing the audited year-end performance seems to be giving some investors the jitters. Why would anyone sell shares for $2.84 before an anticipated positive result ?

[Not The Chosen One]

The delay in announcing the audited year-end performance seems to be giving some investors the jitters. Why would anyone sell shares for $2.84 before an anticipated positive result ?


It's due on the 24th August

[kiora]

"Honey may be better than conventional treatments for coughs, blocked noses and sore throats, researchers have said"
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/aug/19/honey-better-treatment-for-coughs-and-colds-than-antibiotics-study-clams?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[BlackPeter]

"Honey may be better than conventional treatments for coughs, blocked noses and sore throats, researchers have said"
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/aug/19/honey-better-treatment-for-coughs-and-colds-than-antibiotics-study-clams?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

They said it may be better than antibiotics ... which goes without saying, because antibiotics are absolutely pointless to cure any viral disease. Non-news. Anything may be better than antibiotics in treating a cold.

[Shareguy]

I’m expecting a positive update on Monday as to current trading. They seem to have all the ducks in a row to make some decent money. I now have a large position and expect the share price to increase considerably.

[Balance]

I’m expecting a positive update on Monday as to current trading. They seem to have all the ducks in a row to make some decent money. I now have a large position and expect the share price to increase considerably.

A possibility that the Chinese will make a move on the company once the results are out.

[Shareguy]

Yes I think it’s one of the more realistic takeover options on the NZX today

[Balance]

Yes I think it’s one of the more realistic takeover options on the NZX today

When you consider the Chinese paid $10.50 for their shares, they are going to have to takeover the company to justify their initial investment.

[BlackPeter]

When you consider the Chinese paid $10.50 for their shares, they are going to have to takeover the company to justify their initial investment.

you mean "throwing good money after bad"?

[flyinglizard]

When you consider the Chinese paid $10.50 for their shares, they are going to have to takeover the company to justify their initial investment.

I do not think that Chinese money will come. It faces NZ OIO application, and Chinese Monetary Authority Review. The biggest shareholder's husband controls the Chinese distribution channel, and CVT pays distribution fees to him if I am correct. They are lots of conflict interest with other shareholders. Couple of large unpredictable expense items really affect the final outcome. I cannot even complete the forecast of annual report of CVT.

The official website sells UMF 5+ 1kg for $79.80, but I had a few visit at Domino Road Daigou shops, all for $59.99. The same problem with other products within its distribution channel.

[Sideshow Bob]

Interestingly I chatted briefly to a lady today from Comvita. Been there quite a while, things had gone bad, didn't like old CEO, quite rated new CEO, and thought heading in the right direction.

Disc: Not a holder.

[Sideshow Bob]

......................

[Shareguy]

That’s good to know. Thanks for your post