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Snow Leopard
17-11-2004, 07:24 AM
Reading the Fisher Funds October newsletter I notice that they have added Comvita (on the NZAX) to their NZ Growth Fund Portfolio.

Comvita sell natural health care products based on bee related stuff such as honey etc.
The results for the year are now expected to be $1.1 giving a P/E of 26.6, lower than expected due to the delayed introduction of product and the strength of the NZ$.

Going forward I would expect some improvement in profit in the next year and can see that things could expand nicely with time.

Personally given what I currently know (not much) about these guys I would put them on the watchlist for a while and dig a little deeper

Anyone have any opinions/information on this company?

k1w1
17-11-2004, 07:48 AM
PaperTiger, I am interested too but I don't know too much about them. They seem a bit expensive and capital consuming from what I can see.

Bling_Bling
17-11-2004, 08:27 AM
PE 26.6 is pretty high.
Cant see $NZ coming back.

Which country does comvita export to?

They have quality products, but cost more. Mainly trourist buys it.

lobo
17-11-2004, 10:30 AM
I buy their toothpaste.

James K
17-11-2004, 12:06 PM
CVT recently announced a profit warning saying 2004 NPAT would be same as 2003, due to higher NZD and delayed product launch. From memory, revenues had grown ~20%p.a. last 5-7 years, but that was on back of first overseas expansion - would it slow? Agree with k1w1 too about capital requirements - ROE was poor: couple of rights issue pre listing, big raising earlier this year, and a DRP. My conclusion was that it had reasonable growth potential but it was largely in the price. i.e. repeat of 2003 NPAT of 1.15m = eps of ~9cps. Pe of 25. Fisher Funds can have them!

James K
17-11-2004, 12:08 PM
PT, their website had lots of info: www.comvita.com
A lot of their products seemed a bit nutty to me

Enumerate
17-11-2004, 02:19 PM
Their Manuka honey with UMF is very popular in Australia. Apparently, for healing burn wounds - it is very effective.

Aussies are shelling out big $$ for this special honey.

Snow Leopard
17-12-2004, 06:54 AM
Comvita in sticky patch over forecast (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=9003641)

k1w1
17-12-2004, 04:43 PM
quote:Originally posted by k1w1

PaperTiger, I am interested too but I don't know too much about them. They seem a bit expensive and capital consuming from what I can see.


Gotcha !!!

goodguy
18-12-2004, 11:42 AM
I have been interested in Comvita for some time. When they announced they were moving to the main board their price went up until it doubled...making it unrealistic. I use some of their products which are good and their premises are impressive and their displays well worth seeing. They are in a business that is said to have a future. They do some things that look right, but the shares have been tightly held and hard to buy at an attracctive price. At times they look as though they could do with more hard business experience, but I wouldn't like to be too hard on them, because some of the things they have done have been sensible and, if they can just get their act together a little more smoothly, the future could be good.

Snow Leopard
15-02-2005, 06:55 AM
Comvita profits buzzing (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10011042)

whiteheron
15-02-2005, 07:47 AM
A P/E of over 25 is extremely high for a small company like CVT , for any company for that matter in my opinion so you would need to be totally convinced about their future earnings potential

I think that it is a company that appeals to quite a number of people and as there are not too many shares to be had I feel that the price has been bid up above what would be a "normal " price for a share in similar companies , although because of its unique nature comparisons would not be easy

I took some CVT up at the public offering but sold out when I felt the price had reached quite a bit above what could be justified

Having said that the long term prospects for the company may be okay , if you are prepared to wait
It is the high P/E that puts me off

Do your homework
My opinion is just that , an opinion --- time will tell

JAMP
13-08-2005, 09:05 PM
I purchased a small-holding in Comvita late June/early July of this year.

To my mind many of the agreements they have entered into of late show that their earlier endeavours were not in vain. With increased access (http://www.nbr.co.nz/print/print.asp?id=12621&cid=2&cname=Australia) now negotiated, the signals for the future continue to improve.


They are never going to set the world alight with the dividends, but as well as the generally positive vibes attached to their recent market announcements, they have plenty of upside potential from a weakening exchange rate (it will weaken won't it?).

The shareprice will often drift between announcements - an occupational hazard of being too small to show on the radar for many market observers. Keep an eye out for an attractive entry point, and you too could soon be in the <s>honey</s> money...no guarantees mind.

Regards JAMP
NZX: AIA CHA LPL MCH MVN NOG PPG RBD SAN SKX SPN
NZAX: CVT
Unlisted: BRK

winner69
14-08-2005, 06:43 AM
Jamp - wonder if a portfolio reflects its owner

You seem to be a fish and chip person with the odd pizza and chipsd thrown in for a change washed down with orange juice (as the billboard says there's no P in Charlies) ..... and then to fix the neglected body need a good dose of Comvita from your local Lifestyle Pharmacy.

BRICKS
14-08-2005, 08:02 AM
W69 this would be a good time for you to list your holdings for old times shake.. [8D]

JAMP
01-03-2006, 08:16 PM
W69, I too "wonder if a portfolio reflects its owner". I guess it does to an extent...although the pizzas I consume are hand-made.

CVT FY announcement to 31/12/05 now due. I have been keeping an eye out for it for the past two days, so maybe tomorrow! My expectations for the result are reasonably modest. However, my expectations for FY 31/12/06 announcement in 12 months time are a lot higher. I expect this company to be buzzing about the prospect of further softening in the TWI.

Regards JAMP
NZX: AIA LPL MCH MVN NZO NZOOD PPG RBD SAN SKL SPN
NZAX: CVT NWFOA SAT
Unlisted: BRK

Footsie
28-05-2006, 08:53 PM
I'm suprised there isn't more discusion about this stock.
Its a great little company.

If phaedrus were able to complete a chart, evidence would suggest the trend is now your friend.

Also, the registry is very tight with only 13m shares on issue, if they get up a bit of steam the price could rocket. as Jamp says FY06 will be they key to getting the s/p really moving.

Nevl
12-02-2009, 11:41 AM
Interesting response to what was an excellent profit announcement.

Comvita seems to have a good sales channel and improving prospects and trades at a historic low. No wonder people avoid the sharemarket.

Phaedrus
12-02-2009, 01:47 PM
CVT is in an ongoing downtrend and has been for over 18 months, so far. What's worse, there is no sign of the downtrend weakening - in fact it is accelerating.

A selection of indicators are shown here with their associated Buy signals marked by green arrows, Sell signals red arrows. All of these got you out of CVT before the downtrend began. It is clear that none are anywhere near triggering buy signals.

The chart also features a 200 day moving average. These are commonly used by conservative, long-term investors, to keep them on the right side of major trends. Even this very slow ma signalled an exit before the downtrend began.

Note the abrupt "step" in the OBV plot. These often mark where the "smart money" sells out. Didn't they do well?

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/CVT212.gif

Once a "great little company" - now in a great big downtrend!

Nevl
12-02-2009, 03:29 PM
Will be interesting to keep watching. After all any company improving sales and profits in this enviroment deserve a bit watching brief. Will keep my powder dry for later. Still expect Comvita to be a good performer when they finally change direction.

bull....
12-02-2009, 04:17 PM
I think the smart money is on to it.
This company will struggle going forward that is why the price is going down.

Paint it Black
12-02-2009, 05:53 PM
Agree with you Nevl the latest profit announcement was very positive and there should be some upside very soon with their niche market and American approvals in place. I'm averaging down against the TA advice I know.

Phaedrus
12-02-2009, 06:38 PM
Hi PiB, here are some trading rules that you might like to take a look at. The first 2 are the most important, but you will see that most are directly applicable to your case.

Click here. (http://spahiu.wordpress.com/2006/05/27/the-not-so-simple/)

Bob Marley
12-02-2009, 07:25 PM
Not by my calculations mon. Here's what they've been saying:

June 2008: "We expect net profit for the year ending 31 March 2009 to be in the range $2.0-$2.5m."

Nov 2008: "We are not confident of meeting the $2.0-$2.5m target."

Feb 2009: "We still expect to post a positive year end result."

Looks like a series of downgrades to me mon, at a time when the NZ$ has sank quite rapidly and CVT should be big beneficiaries given that 80% of its earnings are now derived offshore.

Snow Leopard
12-02-2009, 07:30 PM
Trying not to be too cynical here but there are no actual numbers.

"We expect to post a positive year end profit result. We have a good working relationship with our bankers, Westpac, and have recently rolled over our long term debt positions"
can be translated as
We should make a profit but don't bet the farm on it, and the bank reckons they can get their money back at this stage.

regards
Paper Tiger

Dr_Who
13-02-2009, 06:37 AM
I like the branding and products of Comvita.

They now need to get their act together and reduce cost. This can be a good long term portfolio stock if they can crack the Chinese market. It is a big ask, but patience is the key.

modandm
14-08-2009, 02:28 PM
wasn't sure whether to bump this or the hillarious kill carmel CVT thread but this one seems most 'on topic'.

http://www.investor.comvita.com/ - annual report is out today.

makes for interesting reading. Doesn't seem like much new information - board as been stressing a create sh value mantra for a wee while now.

Can't aregue with their big sales growth though - or is this all by acquisition?

As a long term holder - bought pre-ipo and regret not selling at 270. I should have remembered the rules:

1. growth co's are often overvalued due to analyst optimisim
2. ipos usually underperform once ititial buying has subsided

anyone care to comment on the result and whether this co is a buy hold or sell and why

cheers

Phaedrus
14-08-2009, 05:15 PM
Anyone care to comment on the result and whether this co is a buy hold or sell and why?This chart is an update of the one posted here almost exactly 6 months ago - the indicators are the same and all parameters are the same. (So let's have no accusations of hindsight eh?) Anyone following these indicators would have bought CVT at around 76 cents on the basis of the trendline break, which was confirmed at that time by an OBV trendline break. The other, more conservative indicators featured here triggered much later, as you would expect. The 200 day EMA (as used by very conservative investors) worked surprisingly well, getting them out reasonably early (at around $3.80) and, more importantly, keeping them out as CVT's downtrend continued.

Pay close attention here to the movement of the Big Money (assumed to be the "smart" money.) Notice the particularly timely exit. They bailed before the downtrend got under way. Notice also the very timely entrance at 83 cents. Anyone selling when the smart money did and re-entering when the smart money did would have done pretty well. Now, the "smart" money is assumed to have more knowledge than "retail" investors. Mug-punters like us can never hope to know as much as insiders. Theoretically this puts us at a distinct disadvantage. But does it?

Look at the trendline-break and OBV trendline-break Sell signals here. BOTH of these preceded the "smart money" exit by nearly a month. Look at the recent trendline-break and OBV trendline-break 76 cent Buy signals. Again, BOTH of these preceded the "smart money" 83 cent entry by nearly a month. Kindergarten level TA outperformed the smart money by a handsome margin.

Spare a thought here for the poor fundamentalists. Forbidden by their faith from utilising TA, they miss out on all this useful information on market sentiment and are forced to rely on dated company reports for their analysis. This makes it very difficult indeed for the poor sods to buy anywhere near the bottom - let alone sell anywhere near the top. The annual report that came out today is reasonably positive but the shareprice began moving up over 3 months ago and has now risen over 70% from its lows. Time for the fundies to buy perhaps?

Technically, CVT was a Buy 3 months ago. Right now it is a Hold.

Modandm had made a good profit on CVT but lack of any exit strategy meant that this was all given back to the market. Their initial investment is now worth half what is was.

Market sentiment is at least as important as analysts "valuations".

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/CVT814.gif

STRAT
14-08-2009, 05:45 PM
Thats beautiful Phaedrus but sleep light. The fundies will be coming for ya with torches and pitch forks in hand.:D

winner69
14-08-2009, 06:47 PM
Picture tells it all eh Phaedrus

Modandm mentioned the kill carmel thread whatever that is but the last big spike in volume was Carmels last throw of the dice with CVT.

In the period 20/5 to 10/6 Fishers sold down the last 2 mill odd shares at an average price of 75.6 cents .... so one could say that once again Fishers lost heaps on quitting a position they didn't like too hold any more

But what a bargain for those since ... now 50% plus up since they bailed.

Suppose this could sort of be a case of techos following the fundies in reverse .... fundie saying no value left so techos pouncing

Would have to think that the price will continue to rise more

re@der
16-08-2009, 02:09 PM
I doubled holding at 84 cents but for me this is all about the business strategy of buying an incountry distributor to cheaply create a multinational structure as well as being earnings aquisitive. (earnings cheaper than the P/E rate) eg. Greenlife hong kong purchase. Other great strategy is multiplying the premium earnings that they make on the food products with medical and skincare products. ie Why sell food at just over commodity prices when the value ad products give huge multiples. If only more NZ exporters were like this one could see some purpose in investing in them.

winner69
16-08-2009, 06:48 PM
McDouall Stuart continue to rate CVT as a BUY ..... this time citing improved prospects from selling higher margin products .... looks like this broker sees value here

Now the value investors have recognised this as a good thing and made the share price to go must be time for the techos to get on board and keep the momentum going

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/4e55dfef/daily-sharechat-comvita-limited.html

modandm
17-08-2009, 10:06 AM
thanks for the chart Phaederus.

So seems like a good hold for now. Will definatly watch for sell indicators in future.

In terms of diagnosing my failings:rolleyes:do you have a longer term chart which might show the long term uptrend prior to the 1st uptrend in the chart you posted? When did that uptrend chart indicate a sell?

Also is kind of hard to use a large volume spike as a sell indicator isn't it? I mean it may indicate strength too?:confused:

In hindsight seems like the fall from the support level of 350 and the 200day ema break was the most credible sell indicator. do others agree? what are standard moving averages used by many techies? 30, 100, 200?

snackpack
13-11-2009, 03:55 PM
$100k of Comvita shares traded today probably due to their upbeat 6 monthly report. Sales of 40m, Npat of 1.6m and a 2c divvie declared for December. Good effort all round in this retail environment. Stronger gains are anticipated for the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter.

GR8DAY
13-11-2009, 04:22 PM
.....yep solid company selling top products for todays markets.......plus a solid future by all accounts.

snackpack
18-11-2009, 04:05 PM
Share price still rising markedly. Note that CVT are selling the licencing rights for Medihoney to Derma Sciences for the sale to the professional medical market. It seems CVT will retain manufacturing and some selling rights to other markets.

Paint it Black
18-11-2009, 08:20 PM
Share price still rising markedly. Note that CVT are selling the licencing rights for Medihoney to Derma Sciences for the sale to the professional medical market. It seems CVT will retain manufacturing and some selling rights to other markets.

CVT always has had tremendous potential, it just needed to clear away some of the distractions it had with the Waikato University and infighting with other suppliers over branding which it seems to be sorting out. It still has a long way to go to recover the lost ground from an SP of $3.40 more than 2 years ago when I started buying them but deals like this are what CVT should be very good at with their experienced management.

Is it a buy now Phreadus?

Zito
18-11-2009, 08:57 PM
I don't know whether CVT is a "buy" right now, but it certainly is a "hold". The price action smashed through resistance of $1.25 late last week and has gone like a steam train since to $1.48 today.

Those traders who had recently been looking for an entry point (I was one) would have bought on Friday when it pushed through resistance and closed at $1.30.

Phaedrus
19-11-2009, 09:27 AM
Is CVT a buy now?No it's not. See how oscillators show it as OverBought? Look at what happened previously whenever this occurred. Now is a time to hold - NOT buy.

Here is a list of Buy signals, ranked according to my very approximate estimate of their strength/reliability :-

(1) Breakout above previous resistance.
(2) Break of a confirmed trendline.
(3) Price/Volume breakout
(4) Break of On Balance Volume trendline.
(5) Exceptional Volume spike on Up day.
(6) Bullish oscillator divergence.
(7) Moving Average crossover.
(8) Oscillator Buy signal.
(9) Trendline respected

These signals are all marked on the chart below.

That's when CVT was a Buy.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/CVT1119.gif

Paint it Black
19-11-2009, 12:05 PM
No it's not. See how oscillators show it as OverBought? Look at what happened previously whenever this occurred. Now is a time to hold - NOT buy.

Here is a list of Buy signals, ranked according to my very approximate estimate of their strength/reliability :-

(1) Breakout above previous resistance.
(2) Break of a confirmed trendline.
(3) Price/Volume breakout
(4) Break of On Balance Volume trendline.
(5) Exceptional Volume spike on Up day.
(6) Bullish oscillator divergence.
(7) Moving Average crossover.
(8) Oscillator Buy signal.
(9) Trendline respected

These signals are all marked on the chart below.

That's when CVT was a Buy.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/CVT1119.gif

Thanks Phaedrus - from what I see we have had in the past couple of days type 1 and 4 buy signals which have been countermanded by overbought warnings - is then why it is a hold?

Phaedrus
19-11-2009, 01:06 PM
From what I see we have had in the past couple of days type 1 and 4 buy signalsThere have been four recent Buy signals - one each of Types 1, 3, 4 and 9.


..... which have been countermanded by overbought warningsA stock reaching OverBought levels does not countermand previous Buy signals and neither does it constitute a warning. Uptrending stocks often spend considerable periods of time at technically "OverBought" levels and these simply mark bad times to buy. When stocks are trending up, oscillators give good entry signals and a string of misleading "Sell" signals. With falling stocks, oscillators give a string of misleading "Buy" signals but useful Sell signals. In short, never act on any oscillator signal in isolation.


....then why it is a hold?Because it is in an uptrend.
Because that uptrend is supported (confirmed) by a rising OBV.
Because price action is above a confirmed trendline.
Because there have been no Sell signals.

Paint it Black
19-11-2009, 08:32 PM
There have been four recent Buy signals - one each of Types 1, 3, 4 and 9.

A stock reaching OverBought levels does not countermand previous Buy signals and neither does it constitute a warning. Uptrending stocks often spend considerable periods of time at technically "OverBought" levels and these simply mark bad times to buy. When stocks are trending up, oscillators give good entry signals and a string of misleading "Sell" signals. With falling stocks, oscillators give a string of misleading "Buy" signals but useful Sell signals. In short, never act on any oscillator signal in isolation.

Because it is in an uptrend.
Because that uptrend is supported (confirmed) by a rising OBV.
Because price action is above a confirmed trendline.
Because there have been no Sell signals.

Thanks again Phraedrus - if the SP continues to slowly rise, as it would with a series of positive announcements, is there a point where the overbought line on the top 2 charts rises to a point where it overtakes the SP which then clears the way for the SP to be at last considered a buy?

Phaedrus
20-11-2009, 09:12 AM
If the shareprice continues to slowly rise, is there a point at which the RSI and Stochastic oscillators as shown here will give another Buy signal?

No. At this stage, they have already done their job. To generate new Buy signals, these oscillators would have to drop below their "OverSold" threshold and then climb above it. This would require a reasonably significant drop in the shareprice followed by a rise.

Very active traders might well want more frequent entry/exit signals. They could use the same oscillators but utilising shorter time periods than those shown here. A fast Stochastic oscillator could use a 5 day period, for example. The default RSI period is 14 days, but use of a 9 day period gives a Buy signal in tandem with that of the Stochastic oscillator, giving an entry at $1.16. The time period controls the sensitivity of the indicator. The idea is to select a period that suits your preferred trading frequency.

Paint it Black
20-11-2009, 12:11 PM
If the shareprice continues to slowly rise, is there a point at which the RSI and Stochastic oscillators as shown here will give another Buy signal?

No. At this stage, they have already done their job. To generate new Buy signals, these oscillators would have to drop below their "OverSold" threshold and then climb above it. This would require a reasonably significant drop in the shareprice followed by a rise.

Very active traders might well want more frequent entry/exit signals. They could use the same oscillators but utilising shorter time periods than those shown here. A fast Stochastic oscillator could use a 5 day period, for example. The default RSI period is 14 days, but use of a 9 day period gives a Buy signal in tandem with that of the Stochastic oscillator, giving an entry at $1.16. The time period controls the sensitivity of the indicator. The idea is to select a period that suits your preferred trading frequency.

Excellent Phraedrus - that's what I needed to get understand this properly.

tango
22-12-2009, 09:24 AM
I bought into CVT ages ago about 102, then the price dropped to 82 cents so I ended up buying more to drop my average cost. There are times I worry they don't have the financial resources to develop and market all their products

snackpack
22-12-2009, 03:45 PM
Seems CVT have signed off on the agreement for Derma to make and market Medihoney. CVT still retain the right to sell to non-medical professionals and are suppliers of Manuka Honey to Derma. All subject to Derma capital raising. CVT to gain $3.2 mil cash and $2.8 mil of Derma shares. CVT gets on-going royalty too anticipated to be about $500k in 2010/11.

tango
23-12-2009, 09:44 AM
Seems CVT have signed off on the agreement for Derma to make and market Medihoney. CVT still retain the right to sell to non-medical professionals and are suppliers of Manuka Honey to Derma. All subject to Derma capital raising. CVT to gain $3.2 mil cash and $2.8 mil of Derma shares. CVT gets on-going royalty too anticipated to be about $500k in 2010/11.

I think that's very promising, but it seems to be a lousy time to do capital raising

snackpack
14-01-2010, 07:50 PM
CVT rising steadily (jumped today 12 cents) to $1.72 albeit on very low volume. Lack of liquidity making the shares scarce? Any ideas why going so high so quick?

kiwi_on_OE
24-01-2010, 10:32 PM
Regarding price increase, could it be related to figures from half yr profit?

6 months to 30 September 2008
NZ$000''s
Sales 31,650
EBITDAF(i) 2,036
NPAT (ii) 203

6 months to 30 September 2009
Sales 40,108
EBITDAF(i) 4,258
NPAT (ii) 1,621

Simple doubling of 1st half figures could give FY NPAT of 3.2M.

Prev 2nd half sales 40m, could current 2nd half sales be 50m? EBITDAF 6m? NPAT 3m? Could some think FY NPAT could be 4.6m?

Current year only has two months left to run. What about next year? Base a guess on double proposed current half figures ie. sales 100m, EBITDAF 12m, NPAT 6m?

Mkt Cap ~50m, so current yr PE 11, next yr PE 8.

If anyone believed figures like those I could see why they were buying and the price was rising.

snackpack
02-03-2010, 03:57 PM
Comvita and Derma Sciences have formally signed their agreement so the share and option issues and cash are heading Comvita's way.

snackpack
12-03-2010, 02:00 PM
Comvita has slowly risen to $1.90 on small volume, but very few sellers. Three people bidding at $1.90 and one seller listing at $2.00 today.

Zito
12-03-2010, 02:27 PM
This share has been my investment of the year. It is in a solid uptrend, which has accelerated over the past 4 months. It lacks liquidity to an extent but its holders are holding tightly - and with good reason - plenty of good news has come out of the company over the past 12 months with more expected.

snackpack
12-03-2010, 08:40 PM
I have to agree as I've held on to a loss for a year or so and am relieved to see it in the green again. I read that Comvita are hiring staff again and are looking into Europe. The extreme cold snap in the Northern Hemisphere was projected to bring benefits too.

kiwi_on_OE
29-04-2010, 06:21 PM
6 months to 30 Sep 08
NZ$000''s
Sales 31,650
EBITDAF 2,036
NPAT 203

6 months to 31 Mar 09
NZ$000''s
Sales 40,000
EBITDAF 4,100
NPAT 800
Debt 30,300

6 months to 30 Sep 09
Sales 40,108
EBITDAF 4,258
NPAT 1,621

6 months to 31 Mar 10
Sales 45,000
EBITDAF 6,700
NPAT 3,300
Debt 11,600

They say: -
'The significant improvement in earnings is a result of a continuing strong
trend in sales growth and ongoing improvements in overall operating
efficiencies.'

So what could be the figures for the new year? What about doubling the numbers for the last 6 mths?

Sales 90,000
EBITDAF 13,000
NPAT 6,600

Mkt cap 64m => PE ~10.

Paint it Black
30-04-2010, 08:04 PM
The most pleasing aspect is the big reduction in debt from $30m to $11m - this will let the company accelerate it's growth even faster. At least NZ now has one well run company on the NZX successfully exporting overseas. Congratulations to the Board!

snackpack
03-05-2010, 03:45 PM
Agreed, well done to management. I can't wrap my head around todays jump in prices. Fantastic rise.

Zito
26-05-2010, 07:44 PM
Well the rise to $2.80 wasn't immediately sustainable and now CVT has drifted back to $2.35 - and with the Euro situation as a backdrop a slight correction to the SP was expected. The share seems to be finding good support at around $2.30, which I'm happy about - a fall below that would mean a change of short-term trend and would cause me to revisit my strategy with the stock.

Accordingly I have been accumulating at $2.32 - $2.35 and was very happy today to see director Robert Tait has been buying at $2.40. A nice (albeit small) vote of confidence in the direction the company is heading.

tango
06-08-2010, 10:54 AM
And now they've dropped to $1.90 after CVT revised their forecast downward

I wish I had sold when they were at their peak a few months ago. I thought about it but everything was looking promising so I held them. Now I'm not so sure...

JayRiggs
31-03-2011, 06:14 PM
Comvita Limited (“CVT”) wishes to provide profit guidance for the year ending 31 March 2011, as follows.



The reported net profit after tax is expected to be in the range of $0.4m profit to a $0.2m loss on forecast sales of approximately $81m. This compares with a net profit after tax of $5.0m and sales of $84.9m in the previous financial year. On a normalised basis, net profit after tax forecast range is between $2.8m and $3.4m profit (2010 - $5.7m).

The difference between the normalised and reported results comprises a number of one off items; the main ones being a non cash tax expense of $1.5m after tax to account for the change in New Zealand tax law relating to depreciation on buildings, the already announced and provided for expense of $2.2m after tax in the defence of a medical patent in the UK, a write down of intangible assets of $740k after tax and the revaluation of warrants held in Nasdaq listed Derma Sciences of $950k after tax.

Even though we have enjoyed a much improved sales trend and profit for the last quarter, the sales and profit numbers for the full six month period are lower than the same period in 2010. It has proved to be too difficult to make up for the poor results in the first half. Problems were experienced with a soft Australian retail market further impacted by the mild southern hemisphere winter and the Queensland floods. Despite the slower sales situation for the year, Comvita has continued to invest in expanding its global internet direct sales model, expanding its retail presence in growth markets and expanding its product portfolio.
Our audited result and full commentary will be provided to the market on 20 May 2011.

Anyone else hold CVT? I bought some of these when I started out investing middle of last yr. Can't say I'm pleased with this result. This UK patent lawsuit crap is costing them too much. I hope they get their sh*t sorted ASAP and get back to selling honey.

Blendy
01-04-2011, 08:46 AM
yeah. it's a bit annoying. i sell their products as well, and there have been problems that can't be helped such as weather that affects honey production and products have been unavailable. And there are price increases regularly which while are justified, are now making honey etc quite expensive (eg latest price list effective today has the basic UMF5+ honey 1kg RRP $49.90, and UMF18+ 250g RRP $68.70). The patent lawsuit is a big problem too, how annoying.

Hopefully a good season this year will make lots of honey and maybe even some of the higher UMF that has been deleted (or maybe is only available to the asian market).

Catalyst
10-08-2011, 12:24 PM
There's been a couple of positive comments from CVT lately...

1. Earnings for the first three months of FY12 are better than the last two years despite the currency headwinds.
2. The company are forecasting that it is "going to have a significantly better financial result in 2011/12."
3. Medihoney milestone payment of US$1m from Derma due this month, plus ongoing royalty payments.
4. It looks like the company will negotiate an out-of-court settlement on its UK medical patent, which is likely to result in a recovery of some costs already expensed and a reinstatement of its patent.

Technically, CVT has today bounced off previous resistence at $1.57/58, which should now be a level of support.

Fundamentally, CVT is currently trading on a forward PE of 10.0x ($1.69/($5m/29.7m)) and an EV/EBITDA of 5.2x ($1.69x29.7m + $6.9m)/$11m. (Assuming CVT achieves FY12 EBITDA of $11m and NPAT of $5m -> the same as in FY10).

sharer
10-08-2011, 04:24 PM
Recently watching MaoriTV (always worth checking their programmes), saw a substantial report about Comvita. Was pleasantly surprised to see they have a much larger range of products in the market than i appreciated. Mostly they seem to have been concentrating on getting business established overseas, & it looks like there is a strong push to develop & market "cosmetic" type products as well as the "medicals". As mentioned earlier the "medical" products (esp. aids to chronic ulcer & wound healing) are likely to be very profitable, & recent regulatory approvals very significant. As a "2nd string" the cosmetic & beauty unguents could also be very profitable, as a market accustomed to paying ridiculous prices for anything a touch exotic. Comvita also seem to be developing new products for the "healtherys" fad markets, & this also looks like a potentially lucrative diversification. Besides the famous manuka honey, they've spent a lot on getting into growing olives, & extracting magical substances to sell expensively, another clever diversification probably. Until i saw the programme on TV i didn't know they were making such good progress in developing their own plantations of manuka, based on tested & high "UMF" yield plants, to ensure they have their own independent source of supply. Obviously an intelligent and longterm plan for developing the business is in place, & just starting to yield benefits.
The only serious caution seemed to be doubts about how hard (& expensive) it might be to secure patents and exclusive rights. I wondered if the original intellectual property (relating to UMF assays, research at Waikato Univ, etc etc) might actually now be just interesting history (most disastrously so far in the legally expensive UK clash), and that for investors information about their newer products. and their science directed plant breeding programme, maybe most relevant.
Anyway, i decided to take CVT off my potential Sell list, and feel happier now just to wait & see what happens in the next year or two.
Sharer.

Catalyst
14-09-2011, 11:12 AM
Wow, big profit upgrade from CVT...forecast NPAT to be around $7.8m for FY12 (midpoint of guidance range).

I value CVT around the $3 mark, based on...

PE of 13x = 13 x $7.8m/29.7m shares = $3.41
EV/EBITDA of 7x = (7 x $15m EBITDA - $18.9m net debt) / 29.7m shares = $2.90

Blendy
14-09-2011, 11:47 AM
grrr, these were on my list to buy this morning, and then i had to pop out and missed out!!!

Catalyst
14-09-2011, 12:02 PM
A $2 entry price is still not bad IMO Blendy....not as good as this mornings $1.77 but if the company can achieve its profit figures then it should continue to rerate up.

Catalyst
16-09-2011, 01:28 PM
Some bullish technical signs to back up the fundamental view:

CVT smashed through previous resistance of $2.00. This should now, theoretically, be a level of support (a nice round number).

All of the high volume days in the last four months (>= 100k shares traded) have corresponded with up or flat share price movements ie. CVT is being accumulated. This is backed up by a rising OBV indicator.

evander
14-10-2011, 07:59 AM
takeover offer $2.50.

CAM
14-10-2011, 08:37 AM
Cerebos New Zealand has launched $71.6 million bid to acquire medical honey products manufacturer Comvita.
The offer values shares in the Bay of Plenty-based company at $2.50 apiece, according to a statement from the company, representing a 19 per cent premium on yesterday's closing price of $2.10.
The deal is conditional on gaining a 90 per cent acceptance rate form Comvita's shareholders.
''If the offer is successful, Cerebos intends to de-list Comvita and operate it as a Bay of Plenty-based subsidiary company on a largely standalone basis,'' said Trevor Kerr, chairman of associate company Cerebos Gregg's.
Cerebos operates a number of brand names in New Zealand including Gregg's, Robert Harris, Bruno Rossi, Atomic and Caffe L'Affare coffees among others.
It recently invested in a $13 million expansion at Dominion Salt in Mt Maunganui and is currently making a $6 million investment in an instant coffee producing plant in Dunedin.
''We are committed to the long term by providing the funds necessary to grow the business, like we do Atomic, Caffe L'Affare and Dominion Salt,'' said George Crocker, chief executive of Cerebos' food and coffee division.
''In particular, we can provide strategic assistance in sales and marketing in Asia where the Comvita brands are not yet well established.''
Cerebos New Zealand and Cerebos Gregg's are wholly owned subsidiaries of Cerebos Pacific, the Singapore-based food and health supplements company.

Catalyst
14-10-2011, 08:48 AM
I can't see it succeeding at $2.50.

Based on the company's FY12 NPAT guidance of between $7.3 - $8.2m, the offer price of $2.50 corresponds to a PE ratio of between 9.0x - 10.2x and an approx EV/EBITDA ratio of between 5.9x - 6.6x.

CAM
14-10-2011, 09:56 AM
Comvita spurns hostile Cerebos bid
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10758983

Manuka honey-based wound care maker Comvita is urging shareholders not to accept a $71.6 million offer to buy the company from Cerebos New Zealand, the local bid vehicle of Singapore-listed Cerebos Pacific.
Chairman Neil Craig told investors the offer is "unsolicited, unwelcome, opportunistic and your directors have reason to believe this offer undervalues Comvita by a considerable margin."
In a letter to shareholders, he advises holding onto their stock pending further advice from directors, and said the company is on the verge of reaping the rewards of long-term planning.
"The directors consider that Comvita's current share price on the NZX does not fully reflect the value of the company and the potential to increasingly reward shareholders from this year onwards," Craig said.
"This offer by Cerebos is an opportunistic attempt to capture the benefit of the company's innovation and hard work that our loyal and patient shareholders deserve."
The rebuff comes after the Cerebos vehicle made an offer of $2.50 a share for Comvita, a premium of 19 per cent to yesterday's closing price, in a bid to take control of the local manuka honey-based wound care manufacturer and delist it.
Cerebos plans to operate the company on a standalone basis, and says it will look to use its links into Asia to market the brand into one of the fastest growing regions in the world.
"Cerebos would be looking to explore areas of collaboration," sister company Cerebos Gregg's chairman Trevor Kerr said in a statement.
"In particular, we can provide strategic assistance in sales and marketing in Asia where the Comvita brands are not yet well established."
Comvita's shares were unchanged at $2.10, and have surged 42 per cent this year, valuing the company at $62 million by market capitalisation.
The stock is rated a 'buy' by the one analyst who follows the company, according to Reuters.
The offer comes a month after Comvita settled a patent dispute with Brightwake, where it granted a sub-licence to the British rival letting it manufacture, distribute and sell its Algivon brand in territories where the Comvita subsidiary Apimed Medial Honey has patent protections.
As part of the settlement, Comvita avoided a 226,000 pound payment.
The Te Puke-based company expects annual profit of between $7.3 million and $8.2 million, with sales likely to be between $91 million and $95 million.
Cerebos Gregg's, whose local brands include Caffe L'Affare coffee, Bisto gravies, and Raro drink powder, recently invested $13 million to expand facilities in a joint venture at Mount Maunganui, and is spending $6 million on the country's only instant coffee producing plant in Dunedin.
"We believe the business has potential which can only be fulfilled by an increased investment in research and development and brand building - even at the expense of short to mid-term profitability," Kerr said.
The offer is conditional on Cerebos reaching 90 per cent acceptances to force the compulsory acquisition of the remaining shares, and let it delist the company.
If it falls short and decides to declare the takeover unconditional, it will "seek appropriate representation on the Comvita board and will participate in decisions relating to Comvita and its future through the Comvita board," according to the offer document.

Shares in the parent Cerebos Pacific fell 0.6 per cent to S$4.78 on the Singapore Exchange yesterday, and have dropped 2.4 per cent this year.
The company has a market capitalisation of US$1.19 billion.

Catalyst
14-10-2011, 12:22 PM
Just listened in on the conference call by the Comvita Chairman. Key points:

1. The company reitereated its recent net profit guidance of between $7.3 - $8.2m for FY12.
2. CVT have had recent correspondence with Cerabos but for information gathering only.
3. The company believes the $2.50 bid severely undervalues the company.

I would imagine the independent advisors report would use PE multiples of at least 15x - 17x and EV/EBITDA multiples of 8x - 9x on the FY12 forecasts (ie share prices of around the $4 mark).

This bid may spark further interest from other parties too.

Disc. Holding on.

Felonius
15-10-2011, 03:12 PM
Phaedrus. I love your insights - so helpful. I need to take your advise extremely seriously henceforth as my capital has been savaged.

Bought into Comvita recently at $2 per share. The trick now is to identify the correct time to exit.

Thank you for making the effort to educate us.

Catalyst
16-11-2011, 12:09 PM
A very good 1H result from CVT yesterday and confirmation that it is on track for FY net profit of between $7.2 - $8.3m.

The $2.50 offer from Cerebos will obviously not succeed. The question remains whether they will up their offer or a new bidder emerges.

I still think the Grant Samuels report (out this week or next week) would value the company using PE multiples of around 15x - 17x and EV/EBITDA multiples of around 8x - 9x on the FY12 forecasts (ie share price valuations of around the $4 mark).

Worst case scenario is the offer fails and no other bidder emerges. If that pans out I don't think the share price will fall too much. CVT will now be on people's radar.

Disc. still holding

winner69
22-11-2011, 09:00 AM
NBR front page last week has a rave about director Taits purchase of 25,000 shares at $1.77 in August just before the takeover .... sort of saying Tait probably didn't know how they were 'tracking very well' (Chirmans words) .... yeah right

He's one lucky punter that guy Tait eh

Catalyst
22-11-2011, 08:54 PM
"Reject offer. Indep val between $3.40 - $4.00".

Fairly predictable. I thought the indep valuation might have been a bit higher though.

At the current share price of $2.95 and using the company's 31 March 2012 net profit guidance midpoint of $7.7m (which they reiterated again today), CVT is currently trading on a PE multiple of 11.4x and a EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.0x. Hardly expensive stuff even if no other higher bids emerge.

winner69
29-11-2011, 08:12 PM
Getting interesting ... Cerebos saying the company and Grant samuel talk a load a **** .... or something like that

Maybe 250 was a bit cheeky but $4 is outrageous

Would you buy a cash flow of $14m (if things continue to improve and keep on going to to plan) for $130m? Probably not considering the risk involved

Methinks Cerebos will say go 300 at tops and if you guys don't like that they'll walk away (and prob come back in a few years time and offer 200)

Blendy
29-11-2011, 10:01 PM
yes, that sounds very reasonable. I think i will consider selling out soon and walk away with a tidy profit.

sharer
01-12-2011, 02:56 PM
Threat by Cerebos to withdraw & instead set up a competing business could be a trifle depressing.
Comvita can really only counter that by turning in a stonking good performance for shareholders almost immediately.
That would mean a sudden switch from reinvestment in developing international business for CVT, towards maximising short term gain for shareholders instead.
There could be rational arguments to show such a switch just at the point where the previous strategy seems to be working well, would be to the detriment of the business, & therefore a reason to sell out. Possibly CVT is about to suffer a destructive clash of personalities.
While i was quite happy to be in CVT before the Cerebos intrusion, now i've been pondering the same questions as Winner69 & Blendy.
Seriously considering an exit fairly soon, with a view to re-entry later when smoke has cleared from the manuka groves.

Blendy
01-12-2011, 08:06 PM
excellent points @sharer.

I'm hoping for a $3+ counter offer, so I ended up picking a few extras up today.... hope that pays off...

Blendy
06-12-2011, 08:22 AM
Rats, no price increase from Cerebos. Comvita had better implement some fast strategies to prove their high valuation!

Catalyst
09-12-2011, 12:27 PM
Looks like the company's hard-nosed response has scared off any likelihood of a higher bid, which is what we all were hoping for.

I do agree with the company, though, that $2.50 was a joke. PE of 10.0x FY12 forecast NPAT of around $7.5m and EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.3x (assuming EBITDA of $14.5m and $17 net debt).

I still think that CVT should be trading on higher multiples then those above. Either the market is saying the company's forecast earnings are optimistic/unsustainable or the market is waiting for further proof that CVT can achieve those numbers. I hope it's the latter, in which case CVT should rerate up (once the short-term traders have exited) over the coming year.

Catalyst
26-01-2012, 11:25 AM
A couple of buy signals triggered recently, one being director Rob Tait buying a handful of CVT shares over the past week around the $2.50 mark. Last time Tait loaded up in August last year, it was followed by a profit upgrade and takeover announcement a month or so later!

Tait's recent buying suggests CVT is trading alright and on target to meet their $7.3m+ NPAT forecast for the y/e 31 March 2012. If the company achieves that, it is currently trading on a PE of around 10.5x and EV/EBITDA of around 6.5x (based on current $2.60 bid price).

sharer
26-01-2012, 01:10 PM
Very encouraging that their patent in the UK for the very profitable wound dressing products has been reinstated, overturning earlier court.
I'm now inclined to advise our Trust to re-enter cautiously, longer term prospects looking good again. Main negative i see is the possibility Cerebos or others might
pursue previous threats to set up competing businesses.

golden city
26-01-2012, 04:32 PM
hopefully will be over 3 bucks soon..

golden city
27-01-2012, 01:45 PM
prices back up again.., but just lacking of volumes..., management is not going to miss this forecast...because they don't want to kill them selves

Catalyst
21-05-2012, 08:01 PM
CVT's profit result is due out on Wednesday. I notice the shares have slowly been accumulated over the past couple of months, so that indicates the $7.3m+ profit forecast should be met. The recent drop in the NZ$ should also be helping their bottom line.

Catalyst
23-05-2012, 09:25 AM
Wow, NPAT of $8.2m. Commentary read pretty good for more growth too.

At current $3.00 share price, the historical metrics look undemanding:
PE = $3.00 / ($8.2m / 28.5m shares) = 10.4x
EV/EBITDA = ($3.00 x 28.5m shares + 13m net debt) / $15.5m EBITDA = 6.4x (excl $12m Derma investment)
Gross yield = 14c / 300c / 0.72 = 6.5%

sharer
23-05-2012, 04:15 PM
Very positive results. Good increase in div + confidence to lift payout fraction for ensuing years.
The strong gain in the medical product area, where they seem to have strong patents, is also very encouraging.
Also continuing sound investments in trees/bees/processing as well as marketing channels, all seems favorable for a longterm holder.
Then besides the honey they have that other olive based business & all the healtheries. Seems to have all come together very well.
Here's hoping all the good news does not encourage Cerebos or others to try horning in on their business plans.

ratkin
28-05-2012, 04:54 PM
They going mad for it :)

Was worrie i was chasing it the other day when i paid 3.00 , starting to look like good buying

Catalyst
28-05-2012, 07:37 PM
The share buy-back should also support/boost the share price over the next couple of months.

ratkin
28-05-2012, 07:58 PM
The share buy-back should also support/boost the share price over the next couple of months.

Think they will struggle to buy many , there just are not any sellers about at the moment , mAybe if they wanted to buy some back they should not have been so upbeat about their prospects

ratkin
06-09-2012, 11:12 AM
Blue sky potential with this update.

Up up and away

But good luck trying to buy some , there not a single seller
You gotta be in to win :t_up:

One thing for sure , there a lot of middle aged fat men about, and Diabetes is the new depression, massive market

CJ
06-09-2012, 12:09 PM
One thing for sure , there a lot of middle aged fat men about, and Diabetes is the new depression, massive marketYep - take this new pill. YOu could of course just stop eating sugar but that is never going to happen.

ratkin
06-09-2012, 12:49 PM
Just as an aside on type II diabetes. The real market for this is not in middle aged fat white men, the burden of this disease falls mostly on South and East Asian (urban Indians in particular) and Polynesians.

Comvita didnt say they were white men !

Dont really need these particular eggs to hatch to be a big benefit to the company. Like they say

"However, we expect there will be increased interest in Comvita products as a
result of the trial.

This research likely to raise the profile of the company a significant amount , its the kind of story that attracts interest from magazines etc

ratkin
19-09-2012, 11:07 AM
4135

Still no sign of sellers entering the market

Slam dunk
02-10-2012, 08:11 AM
Comvita acquires Whanganui apiary business to sure up Manuka honey supply https://www.nzx.com/companies/CVT/announcements/228002

ratkin
21-11-2012, 10:49 AM
Think we should all become beekeepers , Manuka honey is the new gold.

Not sure what to make of the Comvita result , sounds like they on the right track , although not sure i trust them now.
They provided no updates or any indications that there would be supply constraints , although judging by the sell off of the last month or two , plenty of people did know. They could of mentioned it on the update they made (see post above this one)
Stil traditionally the second half result much better and they still very upbeat ,so will give them benefit of the doubt

GRIFFIN
21-11-2012, 11:23 AM
As owning health shops Comvita products are well presented and very much regarded by the NZ public and Olive Leaf Extract is a top seller regardless of its maybe Diabetes qualities which if proven would take it to a whole new level.

noodles
21-11-2012, 12:38 PM
I think this result is a failure given expectations set at the the AGM... "Increased EBIT margins" pg.6 of presso.

Some market participants did know about the issues. Unfortunately, those is the know were not told via a NZX announcement.

The company have said they expect to exceed last years result. How can I have any confidence in what they say based on the recent drop in earnings.

Slam dunk
21-11-2012, 02:08 PM
They sounded positive on the conf call. They said China/Sth Korea/Hong Kong were very strong, although acknowledged Aus/UK were tough. Northern hemisphere winter and holidays such as Chinese new year make for a stronger second half.
They said both their olive leaf product for reducing blood sugar levels, and their cardio-vascular product, have been well received. Apparently Olive Leaf products have previously been seen as just a cold & flu product so this gives them an opportunity to reduce the seasonality of olive leaf sales. CEO also mentioned they were working on a new olive leaf product and a new ingredient platform but wouldn't give any more detail. Because demand is strong they said growing supply will have an immediate impact on bottom line and they're focussing there. Their supply from their latest apiary acquisition is going to come on board shortly (didn't catch the date sorry).

Disc. hold CVT

ratkin
21-11-2012, 04:32 PM
[QUOTE=Slam dunk;385800]They sounded positive on the conf call. They said China/Sth Korea/Hong Kong were very strong, although acknowledged Aus/UK were tough. Northern hemisphere winter and holidays such as Chinese new year make for a stronger second half.
They said both their olive leaf product for reducing blood sugar levels, and their cardio-vascular product, have been well received. Apparently Olive Leaf products have previously been seen as just a cold & flu product so this gives them an opportunity to reduce the seasonality of olive leaf sales. CEO also mentioned they were working on a new olive leaf product and a new ingredient platform but wouldn't give any more detail. Because demand is strong they said growing supply will have an immediate impact on bottom line and they're focussing there. Their supply from their latest apiary acquisition is going to come on board shortly (didn't catch the date sorry).

Disc. hold CVT[/QUOT

Yes , they certainly talking the talk , lets hope they can walk the walk

Slam dunk
26-11-2012, 08:28 AM
I noticed Comvita UMF Manuka Honey for sale at my local Pak 'n' Save on the weekend. I haven't seen this before. Are Comvita starting to distribute through supermarkets now (or is it just that I haven't done the supermarket shopping with my wife for a very long time)?

Balance
26-11-2012, 08:51 AM
I noticed Comvita UMF Manuka Honey for sale at my local Pak 'n' Save on the weekend. I haven't seen this before. Are Comvita starting to distribute through supermarkets now (or is it just that I haven't done the supermarket shopping with my wife for a very long time)?

Been selling at Countdown since forever but not the high UMF. The high UMF you can only get at pharmacy and tourist shops. $60 to $75 a 250g jar of UMF 20+.

Slam dunk
26-11-2012, 01:14 PM
Been selling at Countdown since forever but not the high UMF. The high UMF you can only get at pharmacy and tourist shops. $60 to $75 a 250g jar of UMF 20+.

Thanks Balance. This was only the UMF 5+. cheers

Blendy
23-01-2013, 10:56 AM
Great news about the acquisition of the Olive Estate. Interesting that 'the purchase price is confidential' ...?

Slam dunk
23-01-2013, 11:02 AM
Great news about the acquisition of the Olive Estate. Interesting that 'the purchase price is confidential' ...?

Release about acquisition
Global natural health and beauty products company Comvita, has acquired, through its wholly owned subsidiary company Comvita Australia Pty Limited (javascript:void(0);), the olive estate business of Organic Olives (Aust) Company in Coominya, Queensland, Australia.
Comvita CEO Brett Hewlett (javascript:void(0);) said the acquisition will meet increasing demand for Comvita's multiple award-winning, fresh Olive Leaf Extract (OLE).
"The acquisition of additional land for the expansion of the Olive Products Australia business ensures Comvita has supply surety and meets the requirements for increased leaf capacity in a rapidly growing global market."
Situated on the shores of Lake Wivenhoe in South-East Queensland, the 85ha (200 acres) estate has 7000 certified organic olive trees and the land is highly suitable for further planting of specialist olive trees suited to production of organically certified fresh Olive Leaf Extract.
Comvita's fresh Olive Leaf Extract is already renowned as beneficial for immune and cardiovascular support. Most recently a clinical trial by The Liggins Institute at The University of Auckland (javascript:void(0);) has shown fresh Olive Leaf Extract prepared by Comvita, improves the way insulin is secreted and improves the activity of insulin in overweight men. Insulin that does not work effectively can lead to diabetes. The results have been submitted by The Liggins Institute for peer review and publication.
"We expect there will be increased interest in Comvita products as a result of the trial. We're also scoping the possibility of building on this science, with additional clinical trials," said Mr. Hewlett.
"The acquisition of this new land site for expansion of fresh OLE production is timely and effectively future-proofs this rapidly growing part of our business. Together with fully developing our existing property, the development of our new purchase will provide the capacity to increase supply over the next five years by approximately 130%." said Mr. Hewlett.
The acquisition was completed last week and the purchase price is confidential.
# Ends #

Vaygor1
23-01-2013, 01:26 PM
Thanks SlamDunk & Blendy.

This news surprises me a little bit.

I am keen to see CVT buying up more honey-producing companies/assets where they need security of supply (which has constrained them in the past).
Organic or not, my perception is that olive Leaves are in abundance and I would imagine are quite cheap.

Mind you, there is a lot about the Olive Leaf Extract side of CVT's business that I do not know & sometimes a little knowledge can be dangerous.

Yes, I hold CVT and after digesting their latest annual report I feel comfortable with where they are at and where they are going.

Blendy
23-01-2013, 03:17 PM
I had been a retailer of comvita's products for a long time (am no longer in that business) and the olive leaf side of things is very valuable (in my opinion). I think they already own some olive estates in Australia for their production, but i believe it is certain types of leaves that have the therapeutic properties, so I assume this purchase is to further enable supply and possibly help with price competition as it's generally an expensive product. I also assume, but have no information, that they will be able to sell the raw material to other nutritional supplement suppliers.

Vaygor1
19-02-2013, 12:20 PM
This just in:

FORECAST: CVT: Demand Fulfilment Challenges Prompt Revised Profit Forecast

Global natural health and beauty products company Comvita is today lowering
its earnings guidance for the year to 31 March 2013 mainly due to industry
wide supply shortages and unexpected increases in prices for key ingredient,
Manuka honey, and more difficult trading environments in the United Kingdom
and Australia.

Comvita now forecasts net profit after tax (NPAT) of approximately $7m for
the year. This compares to our guidance in November 2012 at the half year
result, when we noted we were confident of improving NPAT year-on-year. In
the year to 31 March 2012, NPAT was $8.2m. We expect total sales for Comvita
for the full year to be approximately $100m, up 4% on the prior year.

The accumulated effect of two successive years of poor honey harvest for the
beekeeping industry, due to generally inclement weather, resulted in sharp
increases of up to 50% in the wholesale purchase price for Manuka honey
during 2012. The full extent of the increases in purchase price only became
apparent during the latter part of the year.

Relief, however, is in sight as the honey harvest for the current 2012/2013
summer season is shaping up to be above average. At the same time, we have
increased the capacity of our recently purchased beekeeping operations
throughout the North Island to now produce approximately one third of our own
honey needs, enabling us to better manage costs of this key ingredient.

Trading in Australia and the United Kingdom has been difficult. The general
downturn in the economy and consumer confidence in these markets is resulting
in an increasingly competitive environment for our retail customers. While we
have been successful in pushing through price rises that better reflect the
raw material cost increases, this has resulted in a loss of sales with the
more price-sensitive trade customers.

In contrast, sales in our key Asian markets and in New Zealand have been
strong. Increased prices have been more readily accepted and growth of
Comvita's non-honey product range has been strong. This is consistent with
Comvita's strategic growth initiatives to sell a value-added brand in premium
markets and channels.

While we regret the need to downgrade the earnings outlook for this financial
year, we remain confident that the reasons for the downturn are isolated and
that mitigation measures are already in place. Most importantly, the current
strategy still holds with business on a path of strong earnings growth beyond
this financial year.

Comvita will release its results for the full year to March in late May 2013,
at which point we will provide a detailed update of progress in all our key
markets.

Ends....

golden city
19-02-2013, 06:56 PM
it is on my mind..that CVT won't have a another better year., sold out at 3.45..looks a bit too early but.., look back the announcement., i think i had make a good decision

Balance
19-02-2013, 08:51 PM
it is on my mind..that CVT won't have a another better year., sold out at 3.45..looks a bit too early but.., look back the announcement., i think i had make a good decision

Problem with Comvita for a long time now is inconsistency of sustainable earnings.

One year good, next year bad.

Read their half year announcement :

www.nzx.com/companies/CVT/announcements/230024

The following comments painted a very optimistic picture then of the year ahead :

" We remain confident that the company will deliver an increase in earnings for the full year. NPAT for the full year ending March 2012 was $8.224 million on sales of $95.9 million."


"The growth of our business year to date in our key Asian markets is especially pleasing and this will be fully reflected over the coming months as we enter the peak season in these Northern Hemisphere countries."

Assuming the market was pricing in 15% growth in NPAT, the $7m forecast now represents a 27% profit downgrade.

Ouch!

golden city
20-02-2013, 08:48 AM
getting too predictable

Balance
20-02-2013, 09:32 AM
getting too predictable

And Neil Craigs as a long time experienced sharebroker and investment banker should know better.

Will be another downgrade in the year ahead - almost inevitable.

Vaygor1
20-02-2013, 07:05 PM
Sounds like another company starting with an R and ending with f)*&&(@%* (for shareholders that is...)

I agree. CVT's overhype smacks of RAK.
They actually have a great opportunity to grow given their market.
I just wish they included less BS in relaying their future prospects to the market.

From their recent announcement:
"...industry wide supply shortages and unexpected increases in prices for key ingredient...

"The accumulated effect of two successive years of poor honey harvest..."

"The full extent of the increases in purchase price only became
apparent during the latter part of the year."

So this "industry wide" shortage and "two years of poor honey harvest" is producing an outcome that only just "became apparent"?

Codswallop.

Vaygor1
08-03-2013, 09:28 AM
It has been a bit quiet on this thread lately. No posts for over 2 weeks.

Sarah Ottrey was appointed as a director of CVT in November last year. She has recently acquired (or added) a small holding in them. Refer https://www.nzx.com/companies/CVT/announcements/233792

Also one of the reasons behind why I think CVT has large potential growth prospects are detailed here:
http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/food-beverage/pdf-docs-library/information-project/coriolis-report-investment-opportunities-honey-industry.pdf

I find the whole report interesting reading. Pages 46 to 50 in the report interests me with the analogy between potential NZ honey branding/QAQC standards with Scottich Whiskey. Can/will the government ever legislate to help protect NZ's honey brand? Who's driving it?

ratkin
15-03-2013, 09:18 AM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10871028

Good news regarding honey supply

Lizard
23-05-2013, 11:58 AM
Result at top of forecast range and looks reasonably solid with good reasons for improvement in coming year (better honey supply, olive leaf prospects, perhaps more favourable forex). Seems reasonably good buying here at $3.85 - I have 12 month target of $4.50 with perhaps 16cps in divs. However, I have them more in mind as a long term hold given an overall growth trend - their record is a little more unpredictable in the short term.

Vaygor1
24-05-2013, 03:58 PM
Result at top of forecast range and looks reasonably solid with good reasons for improvement in coming year (better honey supply, olive leaf prospects, perhaps more favourable forex). Seems reasonably good buying here at $3.85 - I have 12 month target of $4.50 with perhaps 16cps in divs. However, I have them more in mind as a long term hold given an overall growth trend - their record is a little more unpredictable in the short term.

My view replicates yours Lizard. Looking at the nzx, CVT is not a very liquid share by any measure. The frequency of posts to this thread (ie few and far between) is also a testament to that. If they can generate more interest in the nzx and hence buyers/sellers I would expect a modest sp increase for this reason in addition to any increase attributable to company performance.

Vaygor1
08-06-2013, 04:10 PM
Dividend payment this month is 9c/share making a total of 13c/share fully imputed for the financial year.
Payment date is 28 June 2013.
According to Direct Broking (of which I am not a member), CVT are still Cum Dividend.

I cannot find any information regarding the record date in any CVT's announcements, or on ASB Securities, or on the NZX website.

I have found the Record Date of 19-June-2013 on this website:
http://portfolio.sharesight.com/tools/dividends/NZX

Seems to be a very short timeframe between the record date and the payment date compared to most NZX companies.
Can anyone verify and/or provide a link with official info?

Lizard
08-06-2013, 05:27 PM
Yes, ex-div is 19 June according to NZX website: https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/securities/CVT

(scroll down to "upcoming dividends" just below the chart).

Vaygor1
09-06-2013, 02:55 PM
Yes, ex-div is 19 June according to NZX website: https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/securities/CVT

(scroll down to "upcoming dividends" just below the chart).

Thanks Lizard.
I will book into the optometrist this week ! :rolleyes:

baller18
06-09-2013, 09:41 AM
Wow! Can it reach $5??!

ratkin
03-04-2014, 01:14 PM
What was wrong with the newsletter? seemed fine to me , but stock down 5% admittedly on very low volume

noodles
03-05-2014, 05:25 PM
Back in October 2013 when Comvita announced their forecast half year loss and full year guidance, I thought "yeah right!". Management said "We remain confident of delivering full year revenue and earnings in excess of 2013. NPAT for the full year ending March 2013 was $7.4m on sales of $103.5m.". Having owned shares in this company before, I knew their track record has been patchy and I took the guidance with a grain of salt.

Comvita released it's FY14 Guidance last week. FY14 profit is expected to be $7.5m and sales are $115m. So they delivered and my skepticism was off the mark.

There are a couple of things that make the result quite solid:
1. They have faced currency headwinds since the previous guidance yet still met guidance. The company was starting to develop a track record of disappointment. I expected a continuation of poor news, I am now less skeptical of management guidance.
2. The underlying sales growth for the second half was strong (up 24%). Even stronger is the EBITDA growth of 54%. It was the best second half result in the
company's history (by a long way)

Comvita has previously highlighted the reasons for weak first half:
-seasonality
-marketing for second half
-supply issues

Supply issues should now resolved for FY15 and FY16 because:
1.Increased ownership of apiary's
2.Building up inventories

Any honey price rises in the future should be not be as painful to the bottom line as they are reaching their company-supplied honey targets.

Given the second half performance, it seems the honey supply issues have been taken care of.

Craigs(the only broker covering CVT) is targeting NPAT of $9.8mil(31.c per share) for FY15. At the current share price of $3.30, this would put CVT on a pe of around 11 for FY15.

Craigs estimates seems quite achievable. I think they could be conservative for because:
1. I expect normalisation of profits for for the first half. Therefore NPAT for 1st half should be $2.5m based on historical results
2. Given the historical growth rates, we should expect growth the the second half NPAT by around 15% giving 2H15 NPAT of $9.5 m.

So FY15 could end up being a profit of $12m (38c per share). This would put the CVT on a pe under 9 for FY15. See chart below for NPAT by half performance. Note that the last 2 years have been hampered by honey supply issues.



5767

Of course, we should get guidance from the company at the upcoming AGM. Until then, my estimates are quite speculative. Craigs currently has a target of $3.64 based on FY15 NPAT of $9.8m. I'd expect that target to increase to well over $4 if my NPAT estimates are signalled at the AGM.

Also of note, one of the directors, Robert Tait, brought back in December. He hasn't been buying since 2012 and before the honey supply issues came to light. His buying in 2012 preceded good financial results and a strong run up in the shareprice. Always good to be buying when he is also buying.

Disclaimer: HOLD CVT. This is not a recommendation to buy. Just my thoughts on the CVT.

Footnote: I notice that Craigs round their NPAT figures to the nearest million. This is a little annoying. I have had to work back from the eps figures.

EDIT: 7/9/14 - I now think the my NPAT estimate is way too bullish.

percy
03-05-2014, 05:55 PM
Great post Noodles.What a massive second half..

Lizard
09-05-2014, 06:51 PM
Thought I might have got some of these at $3.35 this week to top up, but gave up and paid up at $3.49.

ratkin
22-05-2014, 12:42 PM
It really is a land of milk and honey

winner69
22-05-2014, 01:11 PM
It really is a land of milk and honey

Nice one mate

And tastier than oilers and miners too

Vaygor1
22-05-2014, 06:47 PM
And more big news the day before the announcement.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/CVT/announcements/250737

Comvita just bought New Zealand Honey Limited from New Zealand Honey Producers Co-Operative Limited… subject to shareholders approval but it looks like every one is on board with it.

noodles
23-05-2014, 09:18 PM
After reading the Full Year report and listening to the phone conference today, I noted this key observation...

Asian NPBT dropped from $8.6mil to $4.6mill. It was explained during the phone conference that this was due the rise in the price of honey. Unlike NZ and Aus, the company was not able to pass on the price increases as they had contracts with their customers. Next year, they should be able to pass the price increases on. If CVT can return to normal profit margins in Asia, they will have a great FY15.

Also of note was their beachhead in the US. There is no letup in their growth trajectory.

Tempering this good news was that indication that the first half would follow the same pattern as last year. Hopefully the first half is not a loss.

I'm still picking 50% profit growth for FY15

Happy holder.

noodles
04-06-2014, 09:51 PM
I don't normally concern myself with trading action, but I was surprised to see an off-market trade this morning at $3.80. $3.4mill worth changed hands. That is a decent premium over the previous close of 3.58.

I won't be selling mine at 3.80, but it would likely be a short-term target price now.

Perhaps a SSH notice on the way.

Vaygor1
04-06-2014, 11:16 PM
I don't normally concern myself with trading action, but I was surprised to see an off-market trade this morning at $3.80. $3.4mill worth changed hands. That is a decent premium over the previous close of 3.58.

I won't be selling mine at 3.80, but it would likely be a short-term target price now.

Perhaps a SSH notice on the way.

Could it have anything to do with the $5million in shares as (preparation for) part payment of Comvita's latest purchase of New Zealand Honey Limited? The deal is still subject to shareholders' approval but I would be extremely surprised if it didn't go ahead.

Refer following passage from announcement on 22-May-2013 at https://www.nzx.com/companies/CVT/announcements/250737

The purchase price is $12.3 million, subject to a working capital adjustment. The purchase price shall be payable with $7.3 million in cash and $5 million in Comvita shares issued at $3.50 per share. The Comvita shares are to be held in Escrow and released to New Zealand Honey Producers Co-Operative annually, over a six year period.

noodles
05-06-2014, 07:15 AM
Could it have anything to do with the $5million in shares as (preparation for) part payment of Comvita's latest purchase of New Zealand Honey Limited?
I would expect to see an allotment notice at 3.50 for that deal. A separate announcement confirming the deal would also be expected.

percy
24-07-2014, 05:35 PM
I don't normally follow CVT however I read the AGM presentation today.
Looks as though they have moved to protect their supply of Manuka honey.
An excellent presentation.Premium brand means better margins.
No surprises there considering they have Sarah Ottrey as a director.She was the person who developed Tui brand for DB.I know of her as she is a director of EBO and I have shares in them.A very clever woman.
Looks to me as though CVT have a very bright future.

noodles
24-07-2014, 10:35 PM
Looks to me as though CVT have a very bright future.
There could also be some acquisition upside as well. PharmaZen perhaps?

percy
25-07-2014, 05:53 AM
There could also be some acquisition upside as well. PharmaZen perhaps?

Don't get my hopes up!!!! lol.

GizyGold
25-07-2014, 09:14 AM
Comvita will defintely be on the look for more acquisitions, whether it is companies or suitable land to secure supply. Think the next 10 years they are well positioned for good growth. Hopefully it is a hot summer for that Manuka harvest, unlike farmers they actually dont want rain. If it is a good summer we can expect some big volumes harvested and exported!!:t_up:

Vaygor1
25-07-2014, 01:49 PM
In October last year, Comvita CEO Brett Hewlett said, "Comvita has historically had a year of two profit halves with the second half year sales and earnings stronger than the first half due to many of our product lines primarily being consumed in the northern hemisphere winter months. This effect is compounded by Asian tourists purchasing our products in New Zealand and Australia during the peak tourism season in our own summer. As we grow our retail infrastructure in Asia and with the Australian market continuing to be quite soft, this year of two halves effect is becoming more pronounced".

I have held CVT for a few years now and the above is never a truer word said. Fairly recently there was another statement issued by Brett on the subject saying they were going to do something about this year-of-two-halves issue but it would take a year or two before CVT would see the results. Just what he intends to do I don't know for sure.

If I could follow my own advise, I would sell before the 1/2 year result in November this year when the 'bad' 1st half result comes out, as the market will drive the SP down (again)… and then buy back a month or two before their full year result comes out in 2015.

Trouble is, being an accumulator and not a trader, I cannot bring myself to sell but as in previous years when the price drops due to the 1/2 year result I just end up buying more. As a result, much like every share I own I end up with far more than originally intended.

noodles
06-08-2014, 08:04 AM
No surprises there considering they have Sarah Ottrey as a director.She was the person who developed Tui brand for DB.I know of her as she is a director of EBO and I have shares in them.A very clever woman.
Looks to me as though CVT have a very bright future.
Well that clever woman has been topping up on her CVT shares. Another $25K disclosed to the market.

noodles
28-08-2014, 11:58 AM
What have I become? A towny reading rural news

http://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/rural-news/trending/more-manuka-honey-trees
Key point for me...
"increase the value of the mānuka honey industry from an estimated $75 million towards $1.2 billion per annum by 2028."

I'll be wearing Airtech shirts next.

Vaygor1
31-08-2014, 02:16 PM
What have I become? A towny reading rural news

http://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/rural-news/trending/more-manuka-honey-trees
Key point for me...
"increase the value of the mānuka honey industry from an estimated $75 million towards $1.2 billion per annum by 2028."

I'll be wearing Airtech shirts next.

Thanks noodles.

Here is a comprehensive report regarding NZ honey that backs up the future potential. I posted it on this thread 18 months ago and I'm reposting it now in case it was missed by some. I think it is a very informative report and makes interesting reading.

http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/food-beverage/pdf-docs-library/information-project/coriolis-report-investment-opportunities-honey-industry.pdf

Pages 46 to 50 in the report describes the analogy between potential NZ honey branding/QAQC standards with Scottich Whiskey. My question 18 months ago was "Can/will the government ever legislate to help protect NZ's honey brand? Who's driving it?".

CVT released this announcement about a month ago:
https://www.nzx.com/companies/CVT/announcements/253453
So it looks like CVT are well involved in trying to protect the NZ honey brand, quality standards, and credibility. Reassuring to see.

noodles
31-08-2014, 02:45 PM
Thanks noodles.

Here is a comprehensive report regarding NZ honey that backs up the future potential. I posted it on this thread 18 months ago and I'm reposting it now in case it was missed by some. I think it is a very informative report and makes interesting reading.

http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/food-beverage/pdf-docs-library/information-project/coriolis-report-investment-opportunities-honey-industry.pdf

Pages 46 to 50 in the report describes the analogy between potential NZ honey branding/QAQC standards with Scottich Whiskey. My question 18 months ago was "Can/will the government ever legislate to help protect NZ's honey brand? Who's driving it?".

CVT released this announcement about a month ago:
https://www.nzx.com/companies/CVT/announcements/253453
So it looks like CVT are well involved in trying to protect the NZ honey brand, quality standards, and credibility. Reassuring to see.
Thanks Vaygor. Good to know the potential and risks.
I'm hoping your previous post comes to pass and I can buy some more in the low 3's.
I note a couple of directors were happy to pay 3.70+ recently.

noodles
05-09-2014, 01:01 PM
Edison now covers CVT
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/company/comvita

noodles
07-09-2014, 09:45 PM
I've just read the Edison and Annual Report. Overall, I think the Edison report is a bit disappointing as it does not detail expected margin across the sectors. I think this is key to understanding FY15 profit estimates.

But a couple of things I have noticed that will affect FY15:
1.Forex. If current the current exchange rates remain the same, CVT will take a hit as exchange rates across the sensitive currencies are above FY14 average.
2. Other income. In FY14, Comvita received Other income of $2.8 Mill. Edison forecast this to be $1.5mill in FY15. Other income include "Change in fair value of biological assets and agricultural produce" and "Government Grants". Without this income FY14 would have been weaker than FY13. So the FY14 result really was quite poor.
3. Interest expenses are going to be bumped up by $1.3mill in FY15
4. Integration Costs of NZ Honey

So definitely some headwinds in FY15. The first half result has already been flagged as poor ... "We anticipate a bigger loss at half-year than last year but an increase in net earnings for the full year. "

I've been quite bullish on CVT in previous posts. I'm less so now.

MAC
07-09-2014, 10:03 PM
Hi Noodles, thanks for sharing, what FY15 and FY16 earnings are you estimating on that basis ?

kind regards, Mac

noodles
08-09-2014, 08:15 AM
Hi Noodles, thanks for sharing, what FY15 and FY16 earnings are you estimating on that basis ?

kind regards, Mac

Mac,

Well the negatives I've listed above are reasonably quantifiable. On the other side of the ledger, there is far less visibility. But these are the items I think should be in a model.

1. NZ Honey Profits
2. Margin restoration in Europe, Medical , and Asia
3. Organic Revenue Growth

Any forecasts by me would be full of assumptions and bias. Perhaps the Edison assumption of FY15 NPAT $10.3 is reasonable. I note that Craigs is also close to that amount.

MAC
08-09-2014, 09:16 AM
Thanks for sharing, the analyst consensus seems to be FY15 $9M (+19%), FY16 $9.6M (+6%) also.

I'm looking at DCF $4.90 FY15 from an undervalued position based on the above, would you concur ?

Perhaps a bit of short term weakness ahead of the HY15 report though.

noodles
08-09-2014, 12:33 PM
Thanks for sharing, the analyst consensus seems to be FY15 $9M (+19%), FY16 $9.6M (+6%) also.

I'm looking at DCF $4.90 FY15 from an undervalued position based on the above, would you concur ?

Perhaps a bit of short term weakness ahead of the HY15 report though.

I like their story and they have huge potential, but am aware they need to show some consistency before they can enjoy an expanded multiple. Until we get some clear guidance on FY15, I am happy to buy in the low 3's.

GTM 3442
09-09-2014, 07:14 PM
Australia and the US looking like potential honey markets as drought kicks in. . .

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-reese-halter/parched-california-and-au_b_5756852.html

ratkin
24-09-2014, 10:15 AM
Looking good going forward.
Liquidity is very poor on this stock though, rarely seem to be many available

noodles
25-09-2014, 07:47 PM
There is a great quote in the interview... "Demand almost seems insatiable"

http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/business/bus-mnr-20140925-0658-comvita_secures_supply_chain_to_boost_growth-048.mp3

Lizard
26-11-2014, 01:25 PM
Have decided to take up the rights. I'm hoping they'll be in the sweet spot for the next 18 months :)

ratkin
26-11-2014, 01:30 PM
Have decided to take up the rights. I'm hoping they'll be in the sweet spot for the next 18 months :)

Yep taking the rights is the logical move

noodles
06-12-2014, 03:22 PM
If you want any extras, last day of rights trading on Monday.

Vaygor1
15-12-2014, 10:49 AM
Have decided to take up the rights. I'm hoping they'll be in the sweet spot for the next 18 months :)

Took up my rights too. Looking forward to their full year result in May.

noodles
16-02-2015, 05:09 PM
Comvita looking a bit weak. Probably due to a poor honey harvest. I'm not expecting a great result.

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/price-honey-set-rise-video-5813152

Vaygor1
17-02-2015, 11:01 AM
Comvita looking a bit weak. Probably due to a poor honey harvest. I'm not expecting a great result.

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/price-honey-set-rise-video-5813152

Interesting. Thanks Noodles.

My feeling is it could potentially have more of an impact on next years financial results for CVT.
Major sales for CVT are in the Asia region and occurs around December/January each year, which I think would mostly come through last year's production.

Also, there should be some (not all) of the efficiency gains via acquisition of NZ Honey showing through for this financial year when the results come out in May.

In all, at this stage, I am cautiously optimistic.

noodles
17-02-2015, 11:42 AM
Interesting. Thanks Noodles.

My feeling is it could potentially have more of an impact on next years financial results for CVT.
Major sales for CVT are in the Asia region and occurs around December/January each year, which I think would mostly come through last year's production.

Also, there should be some (not all) of the efficiency gains via acquisition of NZ Honey showing through for this financial year when the results come out in May.

In all, at this stage, I am cautiously optimistic.

Logically, your reasoning seems right, but p13 of the rights offer document is very explicit.
Each 10% decline in the summer honey harvest has $1mil decline in NPAT. It might have something to do with the following statement for the 1h14 report..."Another key contributing factor is that ownership of a very large beekeeping operation has resulted instructural changes to the business. The accounting treatment for beekeeping operations, means that theprofit benefit for the wider business, generated from the cost advantages of ownership, can only berecognised after the honey harvest is collected in the period January-March 2015. This results in a negativeeffect on the NPAT result for the first half of the year.”"
So the honey producer (Comvita owned producers) is going to struggle.


There should also be come currency relief.

I suppose we need to look through seasonal variations in honey supply as it does not really reflect the underlying performance of the business.

As always I'm a natural pessimist and expect the worst.

ratkin
20-04-2015, 02:10 PM
All looking good !!

The forum always talking about milk, they have all forgotten about the honey

'Comvita has good sales growth momentum carrying into the new fiscal year.
The business infrastructure is geared to meet the demands of another growth
year. The honey supply situation is looking relatively stable and growing at
least in line with our short to medium term sales forecasts. Our outlook is
for another good year of both sales and earnings growth.'

ratkin
22-05-2015, 12:03 PM
Good result out today, profit up 28% Dividend up.
Whats not to like?

kura
26-05-2015, 10:26 AM
[QUOTE=ratkin;568554][FONT=Arial]All looking good !!

The forum always talking about milk, they have all forgotten about the honey

He He well said !

Disc: Am paid a beesite rental & each time Im paid, I buy more shares ( easy come, easy go philosophy )

While I don't see any spectacular gains, I see a nice little niche for a local industry

percy
23-07-2015, 02:06 PM
The forecast CVT expected increase in net earnings in excess of 35% over 2015,and sales in excess of $180 million,had an immediate effect on the share price..!!!!
That is a HUGE increase.NZ $ must be working well for them.

Sgt Pepper
23-07-2015, 02:33 PM
The forecast CVT expected increase in net earnings in excess of 35% over 2015,and sales in excess of $180 million,had an immediate effect on the share price..!!!!
That is a HUGE increase.NZ $ must be working well for them.


'Apiarists unsure if vanishing bees signal 'colony collapse'

Recent article in the NBR expressing real concerns concerning a threat to our honey industry. Something to ponder and to be mindful when investing in Comvita IMO

ratkin
23-07-2015, 03:50 PM
'Apiarists unsure if vanishing bees signal 'colony collapse'

Recent article in the NBR expressing real concerns concerning a threat to our honey industry. Something to ponder and to be mindful when investing in Comvita IMO



I prefer this bit
Asian demand for manuka honey has seen the price for all New Zealand honey increase, amid a global honey shortage. Bees produced $187 million of exported honey in the June 2014 year, up 8 percent by volume and almost 30 percent by value on the previous year.

winner69
23-07-2015, 03:59 PM
I prefer this bit
Asian demand for manuka honey has seen the price for all New Zealand honey increase, amid a global honey shortage. Bees produced $187 million of exported honey in the June 2014 year, up 8 percent by volume and almost 30 percent by value on the previous year.

bloody expensive is manuka honey in NZ --- 20 bucks a pottle or wahever they call those containers

I love manuka honey

Joshuatree
23-07-2015, 04:01 PM
'Apiarists unsure if vanishing bees signal 'colony collapse'

Recent article in the NBR expressing real concerns concerning a threat to our honey industry. Something to ponder and to be mindful when investing in Comvita IMO



We used to have an orchard which i operated organically.Unfortunately my Avocado trees developed Phytophera root rot and i had to convert to conventional to save them with up to 10 syringes sticking out of the trunk injecting phosphonic acid into the trees. I shifted to exporting and reluctantly started a spray programme. Avos have a really toxic spray regime so the fruit are perfect, free of mite and leaf roller damage etc. A beekeeper had kept many hives at the orchard using it as a base. I informed him a number of times i would be using insecticides etc and eventually when i did he kept his hives there through it all.One example of vanishing bee colony collapse.

percy
23-07-2015, 04:17 PM
'Apiarists unsure if vanishing bees signal 'colony collapse'

Recent article in the NBR expressing real concerns concerning a threat to our honey industry. Something to ponder and to be mindful when investing in Comvita IMO



Would appear the directors,management,and staff at CVT have not read the article. lol.

kiora
23-07-2015, 06:49 PM
'Apiarists unsure if vanishing bees signal 'colony collapse'

Recent article in the NBR expressing real concerns concerning a threat to our honey industry. Something to ponder and to be mindful when investing in Comvita IMO



Mostly around Coromandel area only at this stage though

noodles
06-08-2015, 10:40 AM
For those who perhaps think that CVT has advanced too far, it is nice to see Sarah Ottrey buying more at current levels.

noodles
14-08-2015, 08:07 AM
Shareholders will enjoy reading the latest Edison research - target price $7.16

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/comvita3

ratkin
14-08-2015, 11:59 AM
Shareholders will enjoy reading the latest Edison research - target price $7.16

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/comvita3

Happy holder, this one has flown under the radar for years. Guess the lack of liquidity has put people off at times, its not always easy to pick any up

macduffy
15-08-2015, 08:14 AM
Capilano Honey also getting a boost in Aussie. That won't hurt CVT either.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/honey-pills-and-cereals-the-small-aussie-companies-big-in-china-20150813-giy4gq.html

ratkin
20-08-2015, 05:28 PM
six buckeroos , who would have thought It? There money in them there bees

ratkin
21-08-2015, 02:31 PM
After three years of hovering in the low 4 dollar range the stock has shot up to 6.10 in a matter of a couple of weeks. Took the opportunity to sell a few today as liquidity on this one is poor, so needs to be sold into strength

But why has it shot up?? any ideas

percy
21-08-2015, 04:29 PM
After three years of hovering in the low 4 dollar range the stock has shot up to 6.10 in a matter of a couple of weeks. Took the opportunity to sell a few today as liquidity on this one is poor, so needs to be sold into strength

But why has it shot up?? any ideas

The announcement of 23rd July;
"Comvita forecast full year earnings to rise more than 35%" may have a bit to do with it,as well as the market taking a shine to exporters.

Sideshow Bob
25-08-2015, 08:53 PM
Bugger!

http://www.stuff.co.nz/waikato-times/news/71430173/yard-of-beehives-stolen-from-te-awamutu

Plutus
26-08-2015, 10:20 AM
Bugger!

http://www.stuff.co.nz/waikato-times/news/71430173/yard-of-beehives-stolen-from-te-awamutu

I wonder if beehives are insurable ?! A lot of this going up up North as well. Next step is GPS tracking.

percy
26-08-2015, 10:25 AM
Maybe some form of "sting" operation could be used.!

Sideshow Bob
01-09-2015, 10:02 AM
More positive publicity.....

http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20150828-the-golden-elixir-worth-more-than-gold

macduffy
26-09-2015, 03:33 PM
.... and a plug from Roger Montgomery.(Actually, analyst Stuart Jackson)

http://rogermontgomery.com/sweet-as-bro/#more-14856

percy
26-09-2015, 05:36 PM
.... and a plug from Roger Montgomery.(Actually, analyst Stuart Jackson)

http://rogermontgomery.com/sweet-as-bro/#more-14856

Thanks for the link.
Montgomery's team looking at NZ stocks has taken me by surprise.!!
And then liking what they see???????????,.!!
EBO too??? lol.

janner
26-09-2015, 07:13 PM
Maybe some form of "sting" operation could be used.!


For goodness sake perc..

Bee sensible ..

percy
26-09-2015, 07:35 PM
For goodness sake perc..

Bee sensible ..

I am buzzing.!

DarkHorse
26-09-2015, 09:20 PM
.... and a plug from Roger Montgomery.(Actually, analyst Stuart Jackson)

http://rogermontgomery.com/sweet-as-bro/#more-14856

Thanks Macduffy! Certainly looks inexpensive compared to Australian peers.

LAC
28-09-2015, 02:46 PM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11520244

Vaygor1
30-09-2015, 01:26 PM
Seadragon getting all the attention on this forum.
CVT now $6.75

After buying in at an average price of $3.72 in late 2012 and mid 2014 I sold down about 40% of my holding recently at $6.25
Wished I'd held on a day or two longer but, with hindsight, still happy with the outcome and happy to be holding the 60% remainder.
Anyone have any views on the current share price of $6.75 and where it might 'pause' after the sea dragon announcement?
I see from Noodles post below that Edison Research's target price is $7.16 pre-seadragon announcement.

Snow Leopard
30-09-2015, 02:03 PM
Hi Vaygor1

Well I started this thread a long time ago, looked at CVT a few times in the past and never bought in and have ignored it up until today.

I must admit to taking Edison valuations with a very large degree of skepticism.
The only other value I am aware of (via the 4-traders.com website (http://www.4-traders.com/COMVITA-LTD-6497045/consensus/)) is $5.70

If I use the financials from that site and assume 10% EPS growth post 2018
I get a current 30-Sep-15 value of $5.661
and a 31-Mar-16 value of $6.016
(and at 31-Mar-17 $6.695 - for what such a guess is worth).

Whilst it is good that Comvita are backing SeaDragon for me it remains to be seen whether SEA can, even with a sparkly new factory up and running, actually achieve it's goals.
So for the moment I would make no adjustment for this 'investment' by CVT.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

percy
30-09-2015, 02:07 PM
Hopefully Noodles is back from his ban in a day or two and can update us.
CVT have the supply/production/distribution/sales channels for their Honey and Olive oil products performing extremely well,so the fish oil product [products] will be a very profitable add on.
4-traders are showing the following porojections;2016.eps 36.8 cents.PE 17.7...2017 eps 44cents,pe 14.8 and 2018 eps 52.8 cents and a PE of 12.3...
With year on year growth of 20% and future earnings from fish oil to be added to the projections the sp looks to have a bit of mileage in it yet,not counting the help a weakening NZ$ will have.

janner
30-09-2015, 02:56 PM
Hopefully Noodles is back from his ban in a day or two and can update us.
CVT have the supply/production/distribution/sales channels for their Honey and Olive oil products performing extremely well,so the fish oil product [products] will be a very profitable add on.
4-traders are showing the following porojections;2016.eps 36.8 cents.PE 17.7...2017 eps 44cents,pe 14.8 and 2018 eps 52.8 cents and a PE of 12.3...
With year on year growth of 20% and future earnings from fish oil to be added to the projections the sp looks to have a bit of mileage in it yet,not counting the help a weakening NZ$ will have.

Percy.

I have no numbers to back this up.. Just a feeling.. We have been around long enough to take those strange things into consideration .. Aye :-))

2016/17.. Are going to be very interesting years.. IMHO... Have even sold half my HNZ..

Reality is about to kick in.. Which will affect ALL .. No money.. No sales.. apart from the basics

Just a feeling.. :-)))

Each time the can gets kicked down the road ... It gets thinner.. Until there is nothing thick enough to kick..

Do not wish to sound like the Scot's man on Dad's Army.. Doom... Doom I tell Ya !!

Just want to be like the affable police man telling the troops..

" Be careful out there !!

percy
30-09-2015, 04:06 PM
Percy.

I have no numbers to back this up.. Just a feeling.. We have been around long enough to take those strange things into consideration .. Aye :-))

2016/17.. Are going to be very interesting years.. IMHO... Have even sold half my HNZ..

Reality is about to kick in.. Which will affect ALL .. No money.. No sales.. apart from the basics

Just a feeling.. :-)))

Each time the can gets kicked down the road ... It gets thinner.. Until there is nothing thick enough to kick..

Do not wish to sound like the Scot's man on Dad's Army.. Doom... Doom I tell Ya !!

Just want to be like the affable police man telling the troops..

" Be careful out there !!

Defying gravity is getting harder.!!
The past three years I have had "sell ups" only to decide there is an easy 10 to 20% in this or that,which certainly beats cash at the bank.!Rather than being like the "can" I feel like the snowball rolling down the hill,growing in size all the time.!
My capital has increased considerably,and now the dividend income is very healthy.Looks as though it does not seem to matter if the capital goes up or down while the dividend income keeps increasing.For example our beloved HNZ is paying 8 cents fully imputed dividend.That's fine with me,as it is twice what I would earn on deposit .Two brokers have target prices of $1.30 or more.So I also have a chance of a nice capital gain as well.Remember we brought our HNZ under 80 cents and have had great divies. I don't need any capital out of the market.ie I don't need to sell anything for the foreseeable future.
Here's what I don't want to sell;AIA,AIR,AWK,CVT,EBO,FPH,HNZ,MEL,RYM,SCL,SEK,S KL,SUM,and TIL.
Now back to CVT and a trick question,or questions about SEA.
Question 1] What will SEA's market cap be when it has finished its capital raise and options are converted.?
Question 2] When will SEA's factory be up and running.?
Question 3]What is PAZ [unlisted market] market cap.?
Question 4] As well as producing fish oil what two other things can PAZ do that SEA can't.?


disc.Hold both CVT and PAZ shares,but no SEA.

whatsup
30-09-2015, 07:53 PM
Defying gravity is getting harder.!!
The past three years I have had "sell ups" only to decide there is an easy 10 to 20% in this or that,which certainly beats cash at the bank.!Rather than being like the "can" I feel like the snowball rolling down the hill,growing in size all the time.!
My capital has increased considerably,and now the dividend income is very healthy.Looks as though it does not seem to matter if the capital goes up or down while the dividend income keeps increasing.For example our beloved HNZ is paying 8 cents fully imputed dividend.That's fine with me,as it is twice what I would earn on deposit .Two brokers have target prices of $1.30 or more.So I also have a chance of a nice capital gain as well.Remember we brought our HNZ under 80 cents and have had great divies. I don't need any capital out of the market.ie I don't need to sell anything for the foreseeable future.
Here's what I don't want to sell;AIA,AIR,AWK,CVT,EBO,FPH,HNZ,MEL,RYM,SCL,SEK,S KL,SUM,and TIL.
Now back to CVT and a trick question,or questions about SEA.
Question 1] What will SEA's market cap be when it has finished its capital raise and options are converted.?
Question 2] When will SEA's factory be up and running.?
Question 3]What is PAZ [unlisted market] market cap.?
Question 4] As well as producing fish oil what two other things can PAZ do that SEA can't.?


disc.Hold both CVT and PAZ shares,but no SEA.

What and where is PAZ ?

percy
30-09-2015, 08:10 PM
What and where is PAZ ?

On sharetrader go to forum,then markets,then unlisted,second thread down PAZ Pharma Zen.
From memory Karen 1 posted a link to PAZ's website.
As well go to www.unlisted.co.nz ,then quote sheet and clic onto PAZ.

janner
30-09-2015, 08:53 PM
Defying gravity is getting harder.!!
The past three years I have had "sell ups" only to decide there is an easy 10 to 20% in this or that,which certainly beats cash at the bank.!Rather than being like the "can" I feel like the snowball rolling down the hill,growing in size all the time.!
My capital has increased considerably,and now the dividend income is very healthy.Looks as though it does not seem to matter if the capital goes up or down while the dividend income keeps increasing.For example our beloved HNZ is paying 8 cents fully imputed dividend.That's fine with me,as it is twice what I would earn on deposit .Two brokers have target prices of $1.30 or more.So I also have a chance of a nice capital gain as well.Remember we brought our HNZ under 80 cents and have had great divies. I don't need any capital out of the market.ie I don't need to sell anything for the foreseeable future.
Here's what I don't want to sell;AIA,AIR,AWK,CVT,EBO,FPH,HNZ,MEL,RYM,SCL,SEK,S KL,SUM,and TIL.
Now back to CVT and a trick question,or questions about SEA.
Question 1] What will SEA's market cap be when it has finished its capital raise and options are converted.?
Question 2] When will SEA's factory be up and running.?
Question 3]What is PAZ [unlisted market] market cap.?
Question 4] As well as producing fish oil what two other things can PAZ do that SEA can't.?


disc.Hold both CVT and PAZ shares,but no SEA.

As I said percy..

Just a feeling.. We have made much from HNZ.. .. .Sold half.. Which recovers more than Original investment..

Just a feeling.. :))

percy
01-10-2015, 06:22 AM
As I said percy..

Just a feeling.. We have made much from HNZ.. .. .Sold half.. Which recovers more than Original investment..

Just a feeling.. :))

I am not happy.
Your "just a feeling" has proved to be "right" too often to be ignored.!
My problem is best summed up with Ebos.The market a year ago had "just a feeling " and yet as PT points out with divies Ebos is up 42% in a year.!!EBO is my second largest holding.!Thinking I was "well positioned" proved correct.!! lol.
Really pleased you are now enjoying a "free ride" with your HNZ.Can't be better positioned than that.!!!
CVT> Well lets hope Noodles is back today,or very soon to give us his updated CVT projections. We have sort of lost the plot without him.

Investor111
12-10-2015, 05:45 PM
Not sure what the strategy is, but building an international fish-oil brand could be a little more challenging than building an international manuka honey brand. It'll be interesting to see what skills/changes the CVT directors bring to SEA as far as supply-chain, brand and strategy go. And going forward whether they have a go at a majority shareholding.

percy
10-11-2015, 07:57 AM
Today's announcement from CVT is an absolute stunner.
Operating profit expected to be up not 35% but between 46% and 65%.
A nice divie increase in time for Xmas is welcome.
Well done CVT, turning around a usual first half loss of $3.3mil to a $3mil profit is a fantastic achievement.

Beagle
10-11-2015, 09:24 AM
Today's announcement from CVT is an absolute stunner.
Operating profit expected to be up not 35% but between 46% and 65%.
A nice increase in time for Xmas is welcome.
Well done CVT, turning around a usual first half loss of $3.3mil to a $3mil profit is a fantastic achievement.

Agreed mate. At the mid point of their forecast $16m after tax profit that equates to Fy16 eps of 41 cps so at $7.45 this stock growing EPS and sales currently at the rate of ~ 50% is trading on a fairly modest PE, (for a high growth company) of 18. With currency tailwinds and servicing healthcare needs of an aging world-wide population it would appear shareholders are extremely well positioned for further substantial growth. Worth noting the company is confident of excellent growth in the years ahead. I like this company for the well recognised medicinal benefits of manuka honey bandaging and the way they've gone about securing their supply lines is good practice. Healthcare is a huge growth area and normally attracts a significant PE premium to the market. That this company is trading at about the average NZX50 PE makes a pretty compelling investment case IMO.

Disc: I bought a modest stake this morning.

Joshuatree
11-11-2015, 02:05 PM
Mkt agrees $6.50 to $8 in a very short space of time.

percy
11-11-2015, 02:09 PM
Mkt agrees $6.50 to $8 in a very short space of time.

JT do you agree with Craig's target price of $10..?

Joshuatree
11-11-2015, 02:20 PM
I didn't want to share that just yet;)

percy
11-11-2015, 02:34 PM
I didn't want to share that just yet;)

Apologies.
Just how many are you buying as I see over 87,000 have been traded today.?!..

BlackPeter
03-12-2015, 03:42 PM
Officer (advisor to the board) selling - not a huge percentage of his holdings, but still more than $200k. Profit taking on a now quite expensive share ... or just expensive plans for Christmas?

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/226191.pdf

Discl: don't hold

lctham
08-01-2016, 12:21 PM
Hi - im looking to invest in Comvita as I believe the Manuka honey market has potential for further growth. I was just wondering who Comvita's main competitors are?

are there any similar competing companies listed on the NZX?

cheers

stoploss
08-01-2016, 12:41 PM
Hi - im looking to invest in Comvita as I believe the Manuka honey market has potential for further growth. I was just wondering who Comvita's main competitors are?

are there any similar competing companies listed on the NZX?


cheers
main competitor Manuka health recently sold to PEP.

Onion
08-01-2016, 12:42 PM
Hi - im looking to invest in Comvita as I believe the Manuka honey market has potential for further growth. I was just wondering who Comvita's main competitors are?

are there any similar competing companies listed on the NZX?

cheers

It is not just NZ companies that might be competition.

http://www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/view/153719-pharmabees

https://www.activejellybush.com/ (http://www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/view/153719-pharmabees)

Absolute144
08-01-2016, 12:46 PM
Hi - im looking to invest in Comvita as I believe the Manuka honey market has potential for further growth. I was just wondering who Comvita's main competitors are?

are there any similar competing companies listed on the NZX?

cheers


Do some research on price to earnings ratio, outlook, is the valuation based on earnings or potential earnings or hype. Also note cvt invested in seadragin recently for i think .009 per share and currently the sea sp in about 14 -16 so what ever happens to sea could affect cvt share price.
I don't own any and wont suggest either way.
Cheers

Vaygor1
08-01-2016, 12:47 PM
Hi - im looking to invest in Comvita as I believe the Manuka honey market has potential for further growth. I was just wondering who Comvita's main competitors are?

are there any similar competing companies listed on the NZX?

cheers

Not sure about NZX listings main board or secondary board but NZ honey companies as at 2011 is here:

7786

Very comprehensive independent NZ report with the above in it can be found here:

http://www.mbie.govt.nz/info-services/sectors-industries/food-beverage/documents-image-library/Investment%20opportunities%20in%20the%20honey%20in dustry%20-PDF%202.8%20MB.pdf

kura
08-01-2016, 02:07 PM
There is an ASX company that also makes Manuka Honey (apparently it also grows in parts of Aust ) CVV ( Capilano Honey ) has been going up quite a bit for last few months (but not today )

macduffy
08-01-2016, 02:19 PM
There is an ASX company that also makes Manuka Honey (apparently it also grows in parts of Aust ) CVV ( Capilano Honey ) has been going up quite a bit for last few months (but not today )

That should read - CZZ

Apathy
08-01-2016, 03:15 PM
It is a very good result and great to see someone successfully adding value. Interesting to note that the main growth has been in Australia - had been assuming it was out of China. Weak dollar won't be helping but that growth on that dollar and a weak economy is pretty impressive. Like the fact they are focusing on lines outside manuka which I assume is a very finite supply (obvious exception to the diversification being SEA of course ;-))

percy
08-01-2016, 05:22 PM
NBR article 6/1/2016.
"NZ honey exports DOUBLED in November as the country benefited from demand for high value MANUKA honey".
CVT has the supply, the product,and the distribution channels in place to take advantage of this demand.
With the distribution channels in place they have added olive oil to their product range.Now with their investment in SEA they with secure fish oil as an add on product.
The growth rate is far in excess of the PE ratio, so there is still plenty of share price upside potential.

kura
08-01-2016, 06:28 PM
That should read - CZZ

Yes you are correct !

Anyone know where I can find an idiot proof keyboard ?

Vaygor1
08-01-2016, 10:45 PM
Yes, Capilano mentioned on page 52 of the report I gave the hyperlink to earlier today, repeated here:

http://www.mbie.govt.nz/info-services/sectors-industries/food-beverage/documents-image-library/Investment%20opportunities%20in%20the%20honey%20in dustry%20-PDF%202.8%20MB.pdf (http://www.mbie.govt.nz/info-services/sectors-industries/food-beverage/documents-image-library/Investment%20opportunities%20in%20the%20honey%20in dustry%20-PDF%202.8%20MB.pdf)

Note that Beevital is a Capalino sub-brand. The questions asked down the right hand side of page 52 are very pertinent. On the same page you will note that the UK was already into manuka honey in 2011 too.

Pages 53 to 56 in the report show other additional competition to NZ in the honey sector.

Gunny
17-02-2016, 03:52 PM
Strong buy by Reuters. About 14 to 1 on the buy side in volume and ask now of $9.00 on less than 3000 volume.

Gunny

Disc: Holder and not on the sell side currently.

stoploss
02-03-2016, 10:07 AM
Comvita getting into bed with one of the darlings of the ASX.

Not sure if this could potentially lead to a takeover at some stage or if it actually makes it less probable . Market seems to like this move this morning

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CVT&E=NZSE&N=278633

DISC: Holding

Gunny
06-04-2016, 05:08 PM
Makes the NZX 50 from the 13th of April and up 51c today, over 5%. Even made stuffs top 10 movers for the day. Where to next I wonder.

Gunny

Beagle
06-04-2016, 05:19 PM
Makes the NZX 50 from the 13th of April and up 51c today, over 5%. Even made stuffs top 10 movers for the day. Where to next I wonder.

Gunny

Well the index tracking funds will have no choice but to buy so I'd speculate the latest spurt north has plenty more legs in it yet :)

Possible stock split coming now its north of $10 ?

stoploss
07-04-2016, 09:09 AM
Things getting hot out there in this sector ,

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11618326

LAC
07-04-2016, 09:21 AM
Very sad....hard working people making a living. You would think people would work together to grow the industry but shortsightedness and short term gains from small minded people. (assuming it was poison)

kura
07-04-2016, 12:03 PM
Yes is sad, but not new, some hives were poisoned near me (Hokianga) a few years ago.

CVT rent my place ( & my neighbors ) for hives & have not been touched yet.
Disc: Used my beesite rental payments to simply buy CVT shares (back when they were approx $3 ) But thinking of selling some, as CVT have become such a big chunk of my portfolio.

Beagle
07-04-2016, 02:43 PM
Managed to hoover up a few more this morning...I can only see this going one way with the NZX50 inclusion. Only a matter of time before the directors do the right and decent thing to enhance liquidity and do a stock split and we all know what that does to the SP too :).

stoploss
07-04-2016, 03:06 PM
$11.70 bid GYGT

Beagle
07-04-2016, 03:26 PM
$12.01 bid now and almost nothing on the offer and won't be getting any supply from me anytime soon. Its sure going to be an interesting week in the lead up to the inclusion in the index that's for sure. One thing I noticed too with the recent inclusion of A2 into the ASX300 is that index tracking funds kept on buying in the days following the inclusion so what price CVT 10 days from now ? :)

morton_mains
22-04-2016, 05:46 AM
"no time for lunch"....
http://www.4-traders.com/COMVITA-LTD-6497045/news/Comvita-Plantations-boost-marginal-land-MANUKA-22138126/
and an old link:
http://www.manukafarmingnz.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/Comvita-Presentation-to-Rotorua-Conference-03-April-2014-Final.pdf

Beagle
22-04-2016, 09:31 AM
Had another good look at this yesterday. Points to note :-
Last year they reported on 22 May 2015 so we're just one month away from that.
Last year they comfortably exceeded guidance and grew profits 28% to $10.2m
Official guidance last issued in Nov 2015 was for profit to grow to $16m, (at the mid point) = 57% anticipated profit growth this year and EPS of 40 cps.
Company presently trades on a PE of 29.5 based on forecast 40 cps for a company growing materially faster than that.
Very strong supply chain developments this year and new management appointments look good.
I'm a huge believer in the benefits of honey generally and specifically manuka honey.

Huge growth to come in the years ahead. Possible stock split now its in the NZX50 to aid liquidity. Only just under 40m shares presently on issue. Might as well do a 10:1 stock split.

Doing a bit of product testing for my own benefit and will give some feedback on product's effectiveness in due course
http://www.comvita.co.nz/products/medihoney-natural-derma-cream/A7651 This for especially dry and itchy skin around the eyelids and
http://www.comvita.co.nz/products/medihoney-natural-moisturising-lotion/A7649 this as a general moisturiser
Sign up was very easy as a customer, 10% off first order and free shipping for order as it was over $30, nice welcome as a customer by e.mail, prompt delivery the next day, (today).
Product packaging, presentation and customer communication is first class and application easy and smooth and feels soothing and good on the skin unlike a competitors product I tried that went on like a thick cake of honey and felt like dried honey on your skin afterwards.

macduffy
27-04-2016, 07:41 PM
Not Comvita specifically but here's an interesting take on the health properties of various types of honey.

http://www.darlingbeeproducts.com/index.php/jarrah-honey

Beagle
04-05-2016, 01:18 PM
Had another good look at this yesterday. Points to note :-
Last year they reported on 22 May 2015 so we're just one month away from that.
Last year they comfortably exceeded guidance and grew profits 28% to $10.2m
Official guidance last issued in Nov 2015 was for profit to grow to $16m, (at the mid point) = 57% anticipated profit growth this year and EPS of 40 cps.
Company presently trades on a PE of 29.5 based on forecast 40 cps for a company growing materially faster than that.
Very strong supply chain developments this year and new management appointments look good.
I'm a huge believer in the benefits of honey generally and specifically manuka honey.

Huge growth to come in the years ahead. Possible stock split now its in the NZX50 to aid liquidity. Only just under 40m shares presently on issue. Might as well do a 10:1 stock split.

Doing a bit of product testing for my own benefit and will give some feedback on product's effectiveness in due course
http://www.comvita.co.nz/products/medihoney-natural-derma-cream/A7651 This for especially dry and itchy skin around the eyelids and
http://www.comvita.co.nz/products/medihoney-natural-moisturising-lotion/A7649 this as a general moisturiser
Sign up was very easy as a customer, 10% off first order and free shipping for order as it was over $30, nice welcome as a customer by e.mail, prompt delivery the next day, (today).
Product packaging, presentation and customer communication is first class and application easy and smooth and feels soothing and good on the skin unlike a competitors product I tried that went on like a thick cake of honey and felt like dried honey on your skin afterwards.

Follow-up product report. Those products gave amazing results. Taken years off me and solved the dry skin problem like magic. Far better than a competitors product I tried before and left a far better feeling on the skin when applied. CVT report later this month. Expecting a strong result and strong growth outlook along with a solid dividend and possible share split. Very happy holder and product user :)

winner69
06-05-2016, 07:44 AM
Very good sign doing a comparative 12 month report to March

Not compelled to - must be excited about the numbers and want to do a bit of gloating I reckon. Couldn't contain themselves i reckon

Good stuff

winner69
10-05-2016, 08:24 AM
They were excited eh

Best thing about the result is that margin expansion accounted for $6m of the increase in ebitda (rest from selling more). Thats are really healthy sign

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/235083.pdf

Obviously more to come.

They can dine out on this again in 3 months time.

Beagle
10-05-2016, 08:31 AM
Just the beginning of a very exciting journey. Products are truly exceptional and they have only merely scratched the surface of market penetration in many overseas markets, (excl Australia).
As you suggest Winner69, expansion of margin a major positive here along with very strong sales growth. Profit up by 69% mate...is that an omen for Winner69 to get some more :)
Historical PE only 27.7 for a company growing profits at 69% ! Massive potential for growth here in the years to come. Very happy holder :)

Balance
10-05-2016, 08:36 AM
A very very lucky escape for NZ (along with THL) that this company was not taken over - for the sake of the extra $1.00 being asked by directors at that time!

More potential yet for sure.

Now if only they can get that dog, SEA, to perform.

Beagle
10-05-2016, 10:49 AM
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/comvita-annual-profit-jumps-68-australia-overtakes-nz-largest-market-b-188796

All looks good :t_up:

benjitara
10-05-2016, 04:36 PM
Share price now looks to be around 4 years ahead of itself. A good report but any gains look well and truly priced in to me.

Beagle
10-05-2016, 07:53 PM
PEG is less than 0.41. Historic PE less than 28 and growth rate north of 68%. Increasing margin's bode extremely well for the future and are likely to increase further as the company continues to grow and develop economies of scale.

I think we have a superb growth company here on very reasonable multiples for its growth and it will prove exceptionally rewarding for serious long term investors. In addition having used two of the products myself I'm extremely impressed. Really this company is extremely well positioned to grow internationally and as they've proved they can do this in Australia with a low cost approach I think the model rolls out globally extremely well over time.

morton_mains
12-05-2016, 01:37 PM
Top 6 holder sells 2.054m shares. Derma cashing in their profits?

Beagle
13-05-2016, 08:46 AM
Share price now looks to be around 4 years ahead of itself. A good report but any gains look well and truly priced in to me.

A whopping 5% of shares changed hands yesterday at $12.06.


Top 6 holder sells 2.054m shares. Derma cashing in their profits?

Yes, some and director buying in.

morton_mains
13-05-2016, 09:02 AM
Cashing up Derma $12m, Alan Bougen $12m (after several decades you'd have to say well done), Brett Hewlett $0.7m
So this was obviously well orchestrated for the sellers and buyer(s) and just after last results announced - all very clean and tidy.
Now all we need to know who got out their cheque book (hmm... bringing out an "ATM" card doesn't seem the same)

Beagle
13-05-2016, 05:04 PM
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/aade56e6/comvita-price-target-raised-at-craigs-on-australian-asian-growth-prospects.html

morton_mains
19-05-2016, 05:33 PM
On the 12/5/16 a $24m stake about 5% of Comvita was sold by long term holders - and i did wonder myself if CZZ.AX were taking a long term holding as the two companies work collaboratively to exploit the manuka honey demand. It would make sense that long term holders would sell to a partner with whom they are collaborating.

But CZZ.AX has little cash (half-year report) so they could have organised short term funding. As that trade in CVT.NZ was 5 working days ago there should have been a disclosure notice by now, so the possibility that it went to CZZ is still open. More intriguing today CZZ.AX went into trading halt for a capital raise.... this is all curious speculation on my part

heisenberg
20-05-2016, 02:14 PM
Too late to get on the CVT train? I have some indicators suggesting overvalued, others suggesting undervalued. I like the look of the company however.

stoploss
20-05-2016, 02:36 PM
Too late to get on the CVT train? I have some indicators suggesting overvalued, others suggesting undervalued. I like the look of the company however.

Never too late a la William J O'Neil, "buy the highs"

Beagle
20-05-2016, 03:13 PM
As per previous posts I really like the products, the growth rate is sensational, the PE very modest compared to the growth rate and I believe they have only really started to scratch the surface of international expansion. (Disc: I have been adding more, DYOR, not to be considered professional advice)

Red Bus
24-05-2016, 09:55 AM
Quote Originally Posted by heisenberg View Post
Too late to get on the CVT train? I have some indicators suggesting overvalued, others suggesting undervalued. I like the look of the company however.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by heisenberg http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=621058#post621058)
Too late to get on the CVT train? I have some indicators suggesting overvalued, others suggesting undervalued. I like the look of the company however.

Red Bus
24-05-2016, 10:00 AM
The glass seems half full, it’s a powerful brand which has ever growing international recognition, the results just released were very strong, they have exceeded forecast and are looking ahead with great enthusiasm.
A share price spike was only avoided as two major shareholders were selling down, portfolio managers need to buy in as it is now in the NZX 50,Mgt seems to be at the head of the game securing supply and proactive with the CZZ deal which has been formalised.
The downside includes failed and now abandoned medical trials for diabetic foot ulcer treatment by Derma who were one of the majors selling out and the sale of a few shares by Scot Coulter.
It seems to be the only exposure to the golden Manuka honey grail on the NZ market. CVT mgt are experienced and an integral part of this, heading the charge in cultivar development, securing honey supply, are involved with MPI in developing a standardised classification system which can only enhance genuine Manuka honey product and the Comvita brand.
Online sales channels will continue to grow enhancing profitability.
There’s a lot to like here maybe buy a small stake and keep adding. If in doubt go to your local supermarket when its busy and listen to the reverence in punters voices as they spy the Manuka honey, buy it while you can in pottles the future lies in tablets and tubes as its price continues to rocket.
Disclosure I am heavily overweight in this share and given its comparitvely thin trading effective stop lossing is a problem with gapping a concern,that said a share split could be warranted which would once again help the price along.

Beagle
24-05-2016, 10:16 AM
FY17 forecast PE only 21 for a company growing at 68% last year. Management are very confident of doubling sales by 2020 and with the company gaining ever increasing economies of scale and efficiency as the company grows I expect profit growth over the next four years to significantly outstrip the doubling in sales. Profit could triple over the next 4-5 years. Share split with only 39m shares on issue is likely at some stage. Outstanding growth opportunity in my opinion. (Disc: Hold, DYOR not to be considered a recommendation or professional advice).

Gunny
25-05-2016, 11:31 AM
JV announcement this morning. Secures top of South, no lead up time, instant product, growth and more growth.

Happy camper, SP not that excited though.

Gunny

Beagle
25-05-2016, 12:14 PM
JV announcement this morning. Secures top of South, no lead up time, instant product, growth and more growth.

Happy camper, SP not that excited though.

Gunny

Good they're issuing shares at VWAP to pay for it too. To be fair at the beginning of April the SP was $10 so there's already been quite an increase over the last two months. Like the advertisement for Mainland vintage cheese says "good things take time" :) https://youtu.be/I0ojT2h8Oz4 Actually speaking of good things takeing time, I wonder where CVT SP will be in 18 months ?

My best guess $4 after a five for one share split. (Disc Holding, DYOR, Caution: this post contains highly speculative comment on one possible scenario of the future SP and should not be considered to be professional advice or a recommendation).

heisenberg
25-05-2016, 12:24 PM
JV announcement this morning. Secures top of South, no lead up time, instant product, growth and more growth.



Buzzing with this news - CVT continues to develop their lucrative honey empire in NZ

Gunny
25-05-2016, 05:55 PM
At start of year I had a 3 year guess factor in my spread sheet of 2016 at $12, 2017 at $15 and 2017 at $20, if no split so similar expectations.

$12 for 2016 already surpassed, have a smile on but still sticking to the 15 and 20 over the coming two years. Don't ask me to justify as after DMOR used a dart board.

Gunny

percy
25-05-2016, 06:21 PM
At start of year I had a 3 year guess factor in my spread sheet of 2016 at $12, 2017 at $15 and 2017 at $20, if no split so similar expectations.

$12 for 2016 already surpassed, have a smile on but still sticking to the 15 and 20 over the coming two years. Don't ask me to justify as after DMOR used a dart board.

Gunny

Technical question.
What distance do you stand from your dart board to throw your darts?
I am trying to compare the 5 pace standard to a 10 pace.
I have found the longer period the moving average is, the more defined is the trend.
I was wondering if this is also the case with the dart board.
I am concerned if I used too longer a distance I may not hit the dart board.