COA - Coats Group plc (formerly GPG - Guinness Peat Group Plc)

[stevieb]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

SIR RON has been pulling the wool over the KIWI`s eye`s for YEARS.. [8D]

That's right, we've been getting 20% returns every year and he doesn't tell anyone about it. Terrible man.

[Gryffyn]

ignore the idiot stevie boy.

[Gryffyn]

and Shasta - hurry up and get back aboard - the train is pulling out again...

[stevieb]

quote:Originally posted by warthog

Interesting to note that GPG is pretty much the only listed NZ company that allows retail investors to private equity-like exposure to the turnaround/restructuring market.

Don't know about NZ but there has been quite a bit of press about the fact that private equity deals may be more common in upcoming times, main reason for attraction is they can get in and restructure companies without necessarily having to talk to the market every 5 minutes about what they are up to.

I can certainly agree that private equity like companies are thin on the ground. In my quest to diversify a bit my GPG exposure have been looking hard for different places to put my additional investments but which have a similar private equity (turnaround/restructure) emphasis as frankly I think it's a bloody good model. BPC one obvious example, plus the investment banks here (Macquarie, Babcock& Brown, to a lesser degree AFG) all seem to be moving more to doing this.

Not everyone thinks that investment banks doing private equity deals is a good thing, I supose it all comes down to how good you are at executing the turnaround! GPG for one have proven ability.

[shasta]

Gryffyn, am hopping on, its just which stop i get the cab to go to!

[Gryffyn]

all the way Shasta, all the way :-)

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

ignore the idiot stevie boy.




YOU should know GURU.. [8D]

[Gryffyn]

Brilliant - didn't mention anyone in particular but look who bit :-)

[Gryffyn]

Shasta - hope you got back in. $ a little stronger overnight so may retrace a little today if you're lucky but long term...

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Shasta - hope you got back in. $ a little stronger overnight so may retrace a little today if you're lucky but long term...


US$?

The kiwi is steady againt USD and lower against GBP.

GPG is - for now - up 2 cents from yesterday's close, on low volume.

[Gryffyn]

Was thinking that Coates being in China will be pegged to the US$ but maybe BaseT can enlighten us on whuch currency movements are the most significant...

[shasta]

As I've stated, my target price for GPG is still $2.50, & i'll get it once Cujo places an order!

[gulf]

You might have to buy them in Aust or UK to get in at 2.50 !!

[shasta]

Still, jumping in at $2.65 to get to around $3.00 at end year = a mere 13% increase.

I got that in just over a week in KFL!

Better short term plays out there!

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Was thinking that Coates being in China will be pegged to the US$ but maybe BaseT can enlighten us on whuch currency movements are the most significant...


This release might help you with this and other questions.

--
Guinness Peat Group PLC
01 August 2006

Guinness Peat Group plc Announcement

Proposed Issue of Capital Notes by GPG Finance plc

Further to the announcement made by Guinness Peat Group plc (GPG) on 24 July
2006 regarding the proposed issue of new capital notes (Offer) to New Zealand
investors by its subsidiary GPG Finance plc (GPG Finance), GPG confirms that the
Investment Statement and Prospectus relating to the Offer dated 31 July 2006
(Offer Document) has been registered at the New Zealand Companies Office.

The Offer Document will be posted on 8 August 2006 to all New Zealand resident
holders (as at 2 August 2006) of existing capital notes issued by GPG Finance in
2001 and will contain inter alia the following financial information relating to
GPG:-

'GPG's Investment portfolio consists of 94 investments and has been summarised
below incorporating market values as at 30 June 2006.

GPG INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO

Number of Valuation at Proportion invested
Investments (Note 3) 30 June 2006 NZ$ by region
(Note 1)

New Zealand 5 398 million 15.4%

Australia 39 987 million 38.1%

UK / Europe 40 1,118 million 43.2%

USA 4 56 million 2.2%

Other 6 28 million 1.1%


Total investments (Note (2)) 94 2,587 million 100.0%




NOTES


(1) All valuations are converted to NZD at the closing mid-market foreign exchange rates on 30 June 2006, with
the principal rates used being NZD/USD .6101, NZD/GBP .3299, and NZD/AUD .8212.

(2) The valuation of GPG's investment portfolio is based on its shareholdings as at 30 June 2006. Quoted
investments have been valued at the closing bid price of the shares on the relevant Stock Exchange on 30
June 2006. No adjustment has been made to quoted prices to reflect the size of GPG's shareholding in
particular companies. Unquoted investments have been valued at the Directors' valuation, except that (a)
the investments in Coats Group and Staveley Inc (both of which are wholly owned) and Tafmo have been
included at their consolidated book value on 31 December 2005, excluding loans advanced to the Parent
Group, translated into NZ$ at the exchange rate on 30 June 2006; and (b) the investment in Nationwide
Accident Repair Services plc (a joint venture) has been included at its equity accounted book value on 31
December 2005, translated into NZ$ at the exchange rate on 30 June 2006.

For this purpose, GPG's associates and joint ventures and also its operating subsidiaries (being Coats
Group, Staveley Inc, Turners & Growers, Capral Aluminium, Tafmo and Canberra Investment Corporation) have
been included as part of the investment portfolio.

(3) This represents the number of companies in which GPG holds an investment, excluding companies that ar

[Gryffyn]

cheers warthog

[lambton]

quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

SIR RON has been pulling the wool over the KIWI`s eye`s for YEARS.. [8D]


Brierley and his team have been quietly making a very reasonable return for patient investors for many years.

Ask Gryffyn ... ;)


Brierley and his team has been robbing the NZ punter for years throwing crumbs at em from time to time. Yep and before the GPG groupies come at me like religious zealots, 20% pa might seem great but what did Ron and his mates make pa? And all those cheap options. [}:)]

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by lambton


quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

SIR RON has been pulling the wool over the KIWI`s eye`s for YEARS.. [8D]


Brierley and his team have been quietly making a very reasonable return for patient investors for many years.

Ask Gryffyn ... ;)


Brierley and his team has been robbing the NZ punter for years throwing crumbs at em from time to time.


A "crumb" is a nice word to use. As an undefined and therefore relative notion, it can be bent and worked into whatever shape and size you want, depending on your agenda.

In this case, the "crumb"s are returns, year-on-year, that make hedge-fund managers sit up straight.

Your claim above, Lambton, is an interesting one. Would you care to expand a little on it, and maybe indicate where better and more reliable returns can be made - we sure are interested where you think the "crumbs" are better. ;)

[stevieb]

Am always amused by comments like this. As warthog notes what are the alternatives you are proposing and I should note that GPG is a set and forget type of investment, it requires absolutely no imput from me on a day to day basis.

I accept that some people (and note I say some not most) can do very well with alternate strategies but all of these take quite a bit of time. I do all right in my day job, my pro-rated hourly rate means that it's pretty hard to make these alternative strategies stack up if you take into account time (which to me is money) spent on managing them.

[lambton]

quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by lambton


quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

SIR RON has been pulling the wool over the KIWI`s eye`s for YEARS.. [8D]


Brierley and his team have been quietly making a very reasonable return for patient investors for many years.

Ask Gryffyn ... ;)


Brierley and his team has been robbing the NZ punter for years throwing crumbs at em from time to time.


A "crumb" is a nice word to use. As an undefined and therefore relative notion, it can be bent and worked into whatever shape and size you want, depending on your agenda.

In this case, the "crumb"s are returns, year-on-year, that make hedge-fund managers sit up straight.

Your claim above, Lambton, is an interesting one. Would you care to expand a little on it, and maybe indicate where better and more reliable returns can be made - we sure are interested where you think the "crumbs" are better. ;)


99 for me 1 for u is the Brierley coven's motto.

Now on a more serious note. GPG Finance has registered a prospectus to issue capital notes replacing those due 11/06 and some new to the public. NZX announcement was next to useless.
Do u think I can locate an electronic copy.
Fairly typical GSJBW / GPG mushrooming me thinks.

[stevieb]

quote:Originally posted by lambton


quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

SIR RON has been pulling the wool over the KIWI`s eye`s for YEARS.. [8D]


Brierley and his team have been quietly making a very reasonable return for patient investors for many years.

Ask Gryffyn ... ;)


Brierley and his team has been robbing the NZ punter for years throwing crumbs at em from time to time. Yep and before the GPG groupies come at me like religious zealots, 20% pa might seem great but what did Ron and his mates make pa? And all those cheap options. [}:)]

Actually for those who bother to read company reports this information is laid out for all to see. GPG made 120m pounds profit last period (2005 Annual Report) after Direcors Aggregate Emoluments of 7M pounds and gains made on exercise of share options of 1m pounds.

OPtions were only cheap at time of exercise they weren't at time of issue, I for one am quite happy to see Directors provided with an incentive to increase value. I thought that was the idea of the game!

Full details of their remuneration by Director is covered later in the report (pages 68-73). While these values may seem high by NZ standards they certainly don't seem that high to me by international(and in particular UK where co. based) standards. AS a general principle I do think directors everywhere are very well paid, while I may grumble about that am prepared to pay where the directors add value and GPG would certainly be an example of a company where directors add value by identifying the turnaround situations.

As for Rom himself, well I think we get him cheap at 150K pounds annual salary. Frankly I'm amazed he pays himself such a low salary. well out of keeping with other similar roles. Given he has such a low salary and such a large investment in the company itself I do absolutely feel that if he gains by increasing the value of the shares I gain also and our interests are aligned.

You can go back for years and you will find that Ron has never paid himself huge sums so frankly must regard your comment as misinformed. Other directors are certainly paid more but not for me excessively on international standards.

But I suppose at the end of the day, if you don't want to invest in GPG, then don't. We certainly don't need you.

[lambton]

quote:Originally posted by stevieb


quote:Originally posted by lambton


quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

SIR RON has been pulling the wool over the KIWI`s eye`s for YEARS.. [8D]


Brierley and his team have been quietly making a very reasonable return for patient investors for many years.

Ask Gryffyn ... ;)




Brierley and his team has been robbing the NZ punter for years throwing crumbs at em from time to time. Yep and before the GPG groupies come at me like religious zealots, 20% pa might seem great but what did Ron and his mates make pa? And all those cheap options. [}:)]

Actually for those who bother to read company reports this information is laid out for all to see. GPG made 120m pounds profit last period (2005 Annual Report) after Direcors Aggregate Emoluments of 7M pounds and gains made on exercise of share options of 1m pounds.

OPtions were only cheap at time of exercise they weren't at time of issue, I for one am quite happy to see Directors provided with an incentive to increase value. I thought that was the idea of the game!

Full details of their remuneration by Director is covered later in the report (pages 68-73). While these values may seem high by NZ standards they certainly don't seem that high to me by international(and in particular UK where co. based) standards. AS a general principle I do think directors everywhere are very well paid, while I may grumble about that am prepared to pay where the directors add value and GPG would certainly be an example of a company where directors add value by identifying the turnaround situations.

As for Rom himself, well I think we get him cheap at 150K pounds annual salary. Frankly I'm amazed he pays himself such a low salary. well out of keeping with other similar roles. Given he has such a low salary and such a large investment in the company itself I do absolutely feel that if he gains by increasing the value of the shares I gain also and our interests are aligned.

You can go back for years and you will find that Ron has never paid himself huge sums so frankly must regard your comment as misinformed. Other directors are certainly paid more but not for me excessively on international standards.

But I suppose at the end of the day, if you don't want to invest in GPG, then don't. We certainly don't need you.




A GPG groupie crying banzai. he he

[gulf]

are you a trader or investor ?

[lambton]

quote:Originally posted by gulf

are you a trader or investor ?


Duh

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by lambton

A GPG groupie crying banzai. he he


Forum; (n.) A public meeting place for open discussion.

It isn't (just) because I agree (in the main) with stevieb with regard to GPG that I consider your muttering to be worthless - it's (also, and mainly) because it makes no contribution whatsoever to this discussion.

Would you care to make a contribution other than poking fun? Sure, if you're just here to poke fun, then that's ok, but don't pretend to be serious elsewhere on the forum, or indeed, be taken seriously.

[lambton]

quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by lambton

A GPG groupie crying banzai. he he


Forum; (n.) A public meeting place for open discussion.

It isn't (just) because I agree (in the main) with stevieb with regard to GPG that I consider your muttering to be worthless - it's (also, and mainly) because it makes no contribution whatsoever to this discussion.


Would you care to make a contribution other than poking fun? Sure, if you're just here to poke fun, then that's ok, but don't pretend to be serious elsewhere on the forum, or indeed, be taken seriously.


Boy, GPG followers are real easy to wind up. The serious point I laboring to make is Brierley and Co are taking most of the pie.
U deserve a better share. Thats all.

[lambton]

So on a serious note does anyone have access to an electronic copy of a prospectus registered by GPG at the NZ Companies Office today I think?

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by lambton

Boy, GPG followers are real easy to wind up.

If you head outside onto the footpath and behave similarly, then I'm sure you'll find the rest of the world are similar.


quote:
The serious point I laboring to make is Brierley and Co are taking most of the pie.
U deserve a better share. Thats all.


Oh really?

If this is a serious point, then why don't you front up with something more than just pith?

You are long on accusations and short on facts or figures. Goodbye.

[kura]

I've never really followed GPG in the past, and was confused by this recent discussion, as don't Sir Ron & Co own a reasonable chunk of shares ? ( If they didn't, then I would keep away )

I may be wrong here, but my vague recollections from the "old BIL" days, was that most of the top guys incomes were via their shareholdings, rather than via shafting the company as a whole.

Disc: Actively trade on ASX, but just looking for long term investments on NZX, and thinking of GPG.

[lambton]

quote:Originally posted by kura

I've never really followed GPG in the past, and was confused by this recent discussion, as don't Sir Ron & Co own a reasonable chunk of shares ? ( If they didn't, then I would keep away )

I may be wrong here, but my vague recollections from the "old BIL" days, was that most of the top guys incomes were via their shareholdings, rather than via shafting the company as a whole.

Disc: Actively trade on ASX, but just looking for long term investments on NZX, and thinking of GPG.


Check the option scheme.

[stevieb]

quote:Originally posted by lambton


quote:Originally posted by kura

I've never really followed GPG in the past, and was confused by this recent discussion, as don't Sir Ron & Co own a reasonable chunk of shares ? ( If they didn't, then I would keep away )

I may be wrong here, but my vague recollections from the "old BIL" days, was that most of the top guys incomes were via their shareholdings, rather than via shafting the company as a whole.

Disc: Actively trade on ASX, but just looking for long term investments on NZX, and thinking of GPG.


Check the option scheme.

Never let the truth get in the way of a good story would appear to be Lambton's theory. Once again all in the Annual Report so won't give everyone's figures but here are Ron's

Shares held 34,211,633

Options held abou 2.6M at varying exercise prices from 27.09 Pence to 81 pence. If you look at exercise price for options issued this year there were issued with strike price of 440K at 76.45p and 250K at 81.00p. Fairly close to share price at the point in time they were issued.

Where the get value is where they grow value of company, e.g. the older options at 27.09p.

Unlike Lambton most of the shareholders are more than happy that the directors have increased the value of the share price from 27.09p to 81p. Pay for performance it's called and it should be noted there is only value in these options if they do increase the underlying value of the shares (or at least the price).

I for one, think that directors remuneration SHOULD be linked DIRECTLY with their ability to add value. lambton apparently doesn't.

[777]

I always wonder why people with an attitude like Lambton ever bother investing in shares. GPG and BRY(when Ron was there) have always looked after their shareholders. You can't say the same for many other companies on the NZX.

[warthog]

FTX and PRG have looked after their shareholders very well indeed - GPG is a complete shambles in comparison.

[kura]

Thank you Stevieb, just been looking at GPG financials, UK must have differing reporting requirements from ASX companies, as the UK reported figures seemed to be the unrealised value of increase in options, whereas ASX companies seem to put a value on options at time of issue (via some complicated formula) (recall the name Scholes-Black from dim memory) To my mind it's not a case of "snouts in the trough" (sure, while options may be issued at market value, there is still going to be some element of gift, for the time value of options) accordingly, I've deceided to put my toe in water with an order for 2000 shares, (yes, you may laugh) and will review my position latter on in year.

[shasta]

Kura, there are far worse culprits out there with lavish options for senior management, namely (FPA & FPH among the bigger stocks!).

GPG management are creators of wealth, why shouldnt they be remunerated for it, so long as its aligned to shareholders interests.

Their salaries & packages are not too dissimilar to other large corporates around the world & they are active managers with a reputation for extracting value where others haven't.

Look for another "Tower" type acquistion later on in the year, to see your shares up around $3.

GPG gets little coverage in NZ, & thats the way we like it!

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by shasta



GPG management are creators of wealth, why shouldnt they be remunerated for it, so long as its aligned to shareholders interests.

Their salaries & packages are not too dissimilar to other large corporates around the world & they are active managers with a reputation for extracting value where others haven't.



No arguement from me, as I said before, NOT a case of "snouts in the trough" (just unfamiliar with UK reporting requirements)

Disc: Totally disgusted with the way some USA executives renumerate themselves, and just wouldn't want to be part of any company that followed a similar type practise.

[lambton]

Ah GPG shareholders are such a defensive lot. Its like one is attacking their god. Get a life ladies GPG is only a bit of paper. GPG has no other interest in u other than to stack up the no's - Brierley and Co it is 1 for u, 3 for me - that is their coven's motto. And they have put bugger all of their own capital in. Sell shares convert options issued much cheaper seem to be a common occurence with GPG directors. Cannot have too much tied up in the coy they're running after all. Might crash and burn one day and then I can buy cheap sell dear perhaps at a later date. You never know. Bye ladies. he he

[gulf]

Your right ! lets move on !

[Gryffyn]

lambton / sniper has played the same sad song for so long now he is desperate for it to come true but alas GPG make money for their shareholders (circa 20% pa) year after yeat.

If GPG directors held more of the company no doubt it would be cast as a bad thing too. You can't win with losers but you can with GPG :-)

[stevieb]

quote:Originally posted by lambton

Cannot have too much tied up in the coy they're running after all.
34M shares = approx $89 Million

Doesn't equal not much to me but never let truth get in the way of a good story, lambton.

[lambton]

quote:Originally posted by stevieb


quote:Originally posted by lambton

Cannot have too much tied up in the coy they're running after all.
34M shares = approx $89 Million

Doesn't equal not much to me but never let truth get in the way of a good story, lambton.


The party faithful have been really disturbed. "How dare I question their precious GPG". Stevieb. Their money or your money now their money? - he he, not Sniper

[lambton]

Written in 2003 but still valid re dilution factor of bonus issues.

http://unlimited.net.nz/unlimited.nsf/PrintDoc/50A4E8F52FA687EECC256D0B0016CE84?OpenDocument

This para in particular

"But although it’s had a dream run in the media, the reality is that few really understand this latter-day Brierley Investments (BIL). And therein lie the dangers. As with BIL, even when GPG pulls off a major investment coup, it has generally only added a few cents a share in value. And GPG’s long tradition of annual bonus issues mean ever more shares, ever more dilution of profits, and the need to find bigger and bigger deals to satisfy the market. Hence the Coats deal".

[stevieb]

Looks like he has included himself (and you apparently) in the group of people who don't understand the bonus.

Sure, when there is a 1 for 10 bonus there is a dilution of profit on a per share basis but who gets those bonus shares, duh, it goes to those existing shareholders. So net effect is for each existing shareholder is that they still stay own the same percentage of the company after the issue, no dilution.

Didn't you do maths at school, lambton. If you didn't the sharemarket is a dangerous place to play,

[shasta]

Especially how the share price seems to creep back up to what it was pre bonus.

Always good dips & swings with GPG, whilst it keeps on keeping on......

[lambton]

[quote]Originally posted by stevieb

Looks like he has included himself (and you apparently) in the group of people who don't understand the bonus.

Sure, when there is a 1 for 10 bonus there is a dilution of profit on a per share basis but who gets those bonus shares, duh, it goes to those existing shareholders. So net effect is for each existing shareholder is that they still stay own the same percentage of the company after the issue, no dilution.

Didn't you do maths at school, lambton. If you didn't the sharemarket is a dangerous place to play,


/quote]


But what about the options that poor sods like u don't get to feed on. 1 for u 3 for them is the game. That's dilution ladies even using simplistic Aussie maths. [:p]

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by lambton

But what about the options that poor sods like u don't get to feed on.

We starve, unfortunately.


quote:1 for u 3 for them is the game. That's dilution ladies even using simplistic Aussie maths. [:p]


That's inflation for you. Yesterday it was "99 for me 1 for u is the Brierley coven's motto.", now it's "1 for u 3 for them is the game". Tomorrow brings a day that even your average South American economy would wince at the thought of.

At this point the warthog would urge people not to feed the troll ;)

[shasta]

Up 3c to $2.64, & no Cujodog in sight!

Disc: Shasta's target price of $2.50 looking rather distant & unlikely anytime soon.

[stevieb]

quote:That's dilution ladies even using simplistic Aussie maths. [:p]

That'd be right, when your arguments get exposed fall back on good old Xenophobia with the patriotic insult.

quote:Samuel Johnson
Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.

Trouble is, I got my maths education in NZ and degree (maths) at a NZ university. Off target yet again.:D

(apologies to warthog for throwing another bone under the bridge)

[lambton]

quote:Originally posted by stevieb


quote:That's dilution ladies even using simplistic Aussie maths. [:p]

That'd be right, when your arguments get exposed fall back on good old Xenophobia with the patriotic insult.

quote:Samuel Johnson
Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.

Trouble is, I got my maths education in NZ and degree (maths) at a NZ university. Off target yet again.:D

(apologies to warthog for throwing another bone under the bridge)


Oh well the GPG brethren have stumped me with their zeal and faith. Cannot win this one . . . . not that it matters. Have fun ladies.

[shasta]

Well well well GPG & Tower ...

My post back on page 70... "Look for another Tower type acquistion later on in the year, to see your shares up around $3."

Didn't see this coming, & some indication they want to squeeze some more out of Tower.

Gryffyn must be :D

[Gryffyn]

Always shasta, always. Didn't see it either but was mooted a year or two back by some I believe.

[gulf]

It looks as if TWR will give GPG some further value,now we need an update on Coats to see how far the $3 mark is away plus of course all that CASH.

[777]

Typical market. TWR up 13c yesterday, another 6c today, overall 5.6% yet GPG merely holds its price.

[warthog]

The warthog just today handed over some significant insurance premiums to Tower on the basis of their solid yet competitive products. The Tower people handling the transaction appeared very keen to get the business yet determined to compete on quality and price rather than merely undercutting the competition - this is the sort of insurance company this old hog is happy to own a slice of, albeit indirectly.

[redzone]

please let us know how you get on if you have a claim

[James K]

I got some insurance quotes last week for car insurance. we have a 5yr no claims record, and no drivers under 25yrs. Tower's quote was over double the quote I got from three other companies. I asked them to check their quote given where the other quotes were, in case there was a mistake. No, she said, no mistake, (implication: Tower's prices are indeed twice that of the others). No risk of competing on price there, warthog!! Not much risk of getting a new customer either.

[warthog]

Re. claims, indeed you are all correct.

The warthog must confess, however, that this old hog has had a life free of insurance claims. Unfortauntely, not free of insurance premiums ... ;)

This would have been useful information to have some decades ago! [}:)]

[gamerice]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Well guys, I’ve finally gone and done it!!

I couldn’t hold off being involved with GPG any longer. 20% return per year is just too good a bargain to turn down.

Piled in last week. Unfortunately got them at $2.62 and now they are back to $2.57 but for me that’s not too big a loss at this stage.

Look forward to chatting with you all as we ride on the Guiness Peat bus to financial happiness!!

Cujo



i find your post funny, and u, entertaining :)

[stevieb]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Piled in last week. Unfortunately got them at $2.62 and now they are back to $2.57 but for me that’s not too big a loss at this stage.

Cujo, they've gone down nearly 2% since you bought, I think you should bail immediately!:D

[Mick100]

Thanks for the info Cujo

Could you let us know when you bail out

Thanks
.

[shasta]

Down to $2.50 would be a nice exit point Cujo!

[GTM 3442]

Guess it all depends.

What did they float at.

What are they worth now ?

And what would an initial punt of $10000 be worth now ?

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by GTM 3442

Guess it all depends.

What did they float at.

What are they worth now ?

And what would an initial punt of $10000 be worth now ?


None of this is relevant to Cujo, who makes decisions *seemingly* by the seat of their pants.

Amongst the chief suspects for the real identity of Cujo you can find none other than Gareth Morgan ;)

[Year of the Tiger]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

GPG seems to be going down every day since I bought them.


quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Well guys, I’ve finally gone and done it!!

That's why!!!!!!! :(

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

GPG seems to be going down every day since I bought them.


Cujo, did you just panic and sell out (late afternoon)??? ;)

[stevieb]

GPG to share in Coles Myer spoils?

GPG has 15.9% investment in Premier (and 2 board seats) which has Coles as one of it's main investments (about 66m shares).

[stevieb]

From what I have been able to glean (and welcome to clarifications) is that Premier bought it's stake at cost of around $400M and is now worth close to $1 B. 16% stake in that is not to be sneered at.

No Comments?

[Sideshow Bob]

Presume that downward trend is due to currency, in combination with general market conditions??

If stevieb is correct, then GPG are sitting on a handsome potential profit!

[Pennywise]

Cujo, long term you will do fine

hold on there mate...

put them away and have a look in 5 years;)

GPG is a must have stock imo.

[trendman]

Get out dog !!! Get out now :D

[stevieb]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

My loss is growing. Perhaps I shouldn't have bought these shares.

Definitely, sell them all now. For all our sake.

Except for Shasta who probably thinks you've just about done the business.

[shasta]

Cujo

Relax & forget about GPG til there next announcement, this should keep plugging along towards $3 & any short term weakness is a good top up opportunity, with GPG you do get them each year.

Stevieb - I may not re-enter even at $2.50, far better short term opportunities elsewhere.

Will be back in GPG for my long term portfolio as funds allow!

[gulf]

Coles up further in Aust with "talk"of a possible bid at $15.This is not all bad for GPG.

[stevieb]

Yep, now we just need to wait for the bid. As noted looks like $15 or above as reportedly Coles didn't agree to friendly bid.

Market talk is it will hit today or Monday, we'll see!

[gamerice]

anyone had the chance to read the Half year result release?
my understanding is that there are not going to be any interim div paid... thus the drop in s/p?
i topped up anyway.... i think i am growing this blind faith with GPG... hope it will not lead to my destruction...

btw, do they not use the IFRS in the uk?

[coge]

Gamerice, GPG have never paid an interim div. There hasn't been a great deal of activity during the last half, & the board are talking things down somewhat. Like you say, top-up time. Nothing wrong with the result as such.

[stevieb]

I think main reason for the drop is that the Coates story has not yet come good. The report still read fairly positively for the future but some may have been hoping the turnaround would be quicker.

For me just an opportunity to top-up. These have run pretty well recently so maybe time for a breather, prospects do still look pretty reasonable.

[stevieb]

The hidden story of where GPG's main value is, enhancing the underlying value. Not bad when you consider that you have the capitalisation (1 for 10) on top of this
quote:The net tangible assets per share at 30 June 2006 were 63.67p (30 June 2005: 47.35p, 31 December 2005:
56.46p).

[shasta]

Exactly Stevieb, the Coates story & GPG performance doesn't yet reflect the costs savings through production in China/India.

Result was fine, not sure about the knee jerk reaction to drop the sp down 13c to $2.45, a bit too short sighted with so much more to play.

Those holding long term have "yet another" top up opportunity & GPG does give you these each & every year.

The market never likes any GPG profit announcement & it seems it never will, perhaps its better left misunderstood!

Am interested in Basetraders take on it though?

[gamerice]

ok, i just bailed out on NZR, and bought another parcel in GPG.

Now cautiously optimistic, waiting for the unknown ahead...:D

[gamerice]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

My Loss is now becoming huge. I knew that I shouldn't have bought into this company.


It's time to sell cujodog!
One man's loss is another man's gain!:D

[stevieb]

cujodog, am sure I have suggested this before but we are happy for you to sell.

[BRICKS]

WELL ladies down .14 cents WHY.. [8D]

[gamerice]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

WELL ladies down .14 cents WHY.. [8D]


cujodog is secretly averaging down ;)

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by gamerice


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

WELL ladies down .14 cents WHY.. [8D]


cujodog is secretly averaging down ;)


BET the GURU is TOO..[8D]

[Sideshow Bob]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by gamerice


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

WELL ladies down .14 cents WHY.. [8D]


cujodog is secretly averaging down ;)


BET the GURU is TOO..[8D]


Gryf is still sitting on 4,999 but posting in the sandpit, mainly about Chelsea. Must be saving becoming a guru for something really special[?]

[Base Trader]

The profit annnouncement is largely disappointing in that the only surprise was weakness on the US Handcrafts operations - and being entirement responsible for the reduced like for like profit down 10%.

Sir Ron has stated that it is due to destocking, however, this is a bit of smale and mirrors as purchasers of handicrafts will not peel back purchases if demand remains sound and there has been no fundamental increase in pricing of the product for purchasers to take the wait and see approach. Hence, what he is really saying is that the crafts boom over 2005 caught most retailers by surprise, they increased stock, and now the sales have fallen. Without another Katrina, 9/11 or new war then the crafts industry will probably stabalise. It probably acts a barometer to the US polictical landscape that is shifting from the conservative right also.

What was positive in the longer term value of the Company was the capex and importantly increased sales and profits fropm Asian operations in the Industrial market. This is strategically how value for the Coats business will be achieved as how many of you would support a crafts retailer over the long term?

All other corporate measures inmproved in line with plan with debt reducing USD78m to just over USD400m.

Currency gains were significant for GPG, however, most investors had taken GPG, atleast partially, as a hedge to the weaker NZD cycle so no surprises there.

Overall, the result is marginally negative for heightened shareholder expectations, however, the GPG fundamentals have not changed and for me no reason to change my long term hold position. Most investors buy shares on the next few periods of profit potential - i.e., how they see the next announcements.

On that basis the share should be seen in a positive light on any weakness as this result had no exceptional filips and probably the weakest expected result from handicafrafts. The next result, as long as their is no significant cotton volatility, should be improved from Coats.

[Base Trader]

I firmly believe none of the brokers will downgrade unless they were idiots and had GPG valued north of $3.15 for 12 month on the basis that the crafts boom was here to stay.

It is cyclical and just reverting to mean. The boom in US crafts was always going to revert but may have a few more converts/knitters now and may have a higher mean after the destocking has worked through.

The industrial pick up was indicated to be more structural (hence, more valuable). Sir Ron is not typically a spin doctor so I believe him in this regard.

Good buying at sub $2.50 levels in my opinion.

Also the currency has likely seen some erosion of sp lately, however, come September when the reporting begins in earnest we may see focus on fundamentals and some weakness in NZD (and strength in GPG). A little dose of realism for the kiwi will see the ficus shift from the yield.

[stevieb]

quote:Sir Ron is not typically a spin doctor so I believe him in this regard.
Had a little chuckle at this comment, I've never met anyone in my life that this title would less apply to. He's the antithesis of a spin doctor IMO.

[Kookaburra]

GPG is a long term play and is just about as safe as money in the bank if it were not for a prevailing current of uncertainty about the markets in general and an overexpectation of short-term reward. There is nothing in this report to undermine my confidence in this stock. Except that it already represents 15% of my portfolio I would be buying right now.

[Base Trader]

I saw Forbar reduced the GPG 12 month target to current price. I read the report and there was not foresight in the report at all - just extrapolating the latest results forward in essence. Pretty useless really.

Maquarie still has them a buy at just north of $3. They have taken Ron at his word - hence, they have forecast a reversion to the mean for US Crafts after eliminating the destocking effect.

I have bought some more at these levels.

[Sideshow Bob]

If you want the price to go up CujoDog, just sell! :D

Very insightful comments from B Ware, I could have almost come up with those myself!

[Enumerate]

Anyone have any background or information on the 8.3% Capital Notes issue?

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Enumerate

Anyone have any background or information on the 8.3% Capital Notes issue?


They are massively oversubscribed. This has been bandied about in the media, but it squares up with what the hog is hearing privately, with some brokers getting less than 10% of what they requested.

[stevieb]

I'm not in NZ currently so can't subscribe to the Capital Notes anyway but can someone tell me advantage of these over the head shares?

[Enumerate]

Yes, I can understand that would be the case Warthog. The issue looks very attractive.

[stevieb]

FNarena
quote:GPG a Rare Case where earnings don't really matter

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=61C2D7FF-17A4-1130-F5E4AF010EA0BCED

[gulf]

Todays AFR has a story on Ron.Does any one subscribe?

[stevieb]

I have read the article, somewhat light on content though a good summary of Ron and GPG and their investment style. Basically just rehashed what GPG is doing currently, some speculation that Ron was looking to go out with a bang on one big deal. But then again also suggested that Ron lives and breathes this stuff and will be doing until he dies.

So all in all I would describe as something that may help raise GPG profile but didn't tell me anything I didn't already know (and mentioned on this thread).

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by stevieb
........ some speculation that Ron was looking to go out with a bang on one big deal.


Just waiting for the OZ legislation to change re media ownership rules .... Ron's been waiting for years .... finger on the trigger ... already to go

Watch this space

[Sideshow Bob]

This thread seems to get forgotten a bit without Gryf's regular posting.....

Is he saving his 5,000th post for when GPG's shareprice hits $3[?]

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Cullen's backdown on share tax!

Watch GPG's price skyrocket from now on.

http://stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3795086a13,00.html


He. Reads. Media.

Run for the hills ... (for all those Maiden fans out there ;))

[777]

Because they are exempt until 1/4/10. It has been in the news for those that can read.

[Phaedrus]

We shouldn't be too surprised at the poor performance of GPG's shareprice over the last few months - the OBV upward trendline was broken back in April (marked by Red arrow).

This weakness should be viewed in context. The OBV uptrend was broken by sideways action - not a downtrend or a sudden drop. Price action is still well above a trendline that has held for years. Although GPG has struck resistance at $2.73, it remains in an uptrend and it would take a drop below the $2.38 support level to break this.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/GPG915001.gif

[Mick100]

I think you could add another indicator to your GPG chart phaedrus - the Cujo factor

The cujo factor is bullish when cujo sells (late last yr) and bearish when he buys (early Aug 2006).
,

[trendman]

Anyone have any ideas what is happening with this stock?

[stevieb]

Pretty much what it always does, with some relatively minor hiccups give you 20% or so return every year.

Overall market is currently jittery so GPG is too but if you take a mid-long term view, this one will see you good.

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by trendman

Anyone have any ideas what is happening with this stock?

NZ$ up :( + Gryffyn's ramping down ;) = GPG down ;)

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by trendman

Anyone have any ideas what is happening with this stock?


GPG has broad exposure (US, UK, AU, NZ) so wherever your focus, there's something there for the market to be worried about if its in that frame of mind. Right now as PT noted, the strength in the Kiwi is a direct issue, and concerns over the short-term Nth-US economy (significant exposure for Coats) means wobbles for GPG. Medium to long-term holders see this as an excellent opportunity to pick up a holding in GPG at a significant discount. The hog notes the positive outlook from brokers in the UK, Aust. and NZ for GPG, for what it is worth (not much to be honest). GPG periodically presents good opportunities to accumulate.

disc: GPG.

[Paddie]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog


quote:Originally posted by trendman

Anyone have any ideas what is happening with this stock?


Someone is obviously responsible for this poor share price performance!

I've just bought some more to average down. Surely the share price won't go any lower now?;)


After a statement like that Cujo, watch the price drop like a stone!
Buyers will be heading for the hills.

Paddie[^][^]

[stevieb]

quote:
Right now as PT noted, the strength in the Kiwi is a direct issue

The above is really obvious if you compare performance between ASX and NZX, NZX has dropped by about 10% where on ASX price has just been flat.

[senor guacamole]

Hi Sharetraders,
Im a first time sharetrader user and recent GPG shareholder, scoped this site out before purchasing.. grabbed them before the dollar dropped so down a bit there [xx(]...but im pretty confident that itll be a slow steady accumulator for me as it has for a lot of other folk .. And when our dollar falls itll all balance out as Sir Ron often says...
Theres not much dissent (havent looked thru the entire thread,but)
recently with most seeing the dip as a chance to buy more shares.
Sounds good to me...
Very interesting to see the charts from Phaedrus, but is there anyone who fundamental analysis of GPGs share value recently?? Im going to give it a crack on the moneychimp calculator but given the fact im a rank amateur any advice from the gurus of sharetrader appreciated..

[Contrarian]

From www.vond.co.nz site

First NZ Capital
Guinness Peat Investment Portfolio
No. Shares Percent Share Cost/Book Mkt Value %
Australia: (000) Owned Price (000) (000) Assets
ABB Grain 7,054 5.0% $6.70 A$38,071 A$47,265 1.6%
AVJennings 13,294 6.1% $1.08 A$12,550 A$14,291 0.5%
AVJennings -Options 8,249 3.8% A$0 A$0 0.0%
Bluestone Tin 18,964 6.1% $0.21 A$2,655 A$3,982 0.1%
eServglobal 31,400 18.7% $0.57 A$13,831 A$17,898 0.6%
Farm Pride 6,626 19.9% $0.36 A$3,295 A$2,385 0.1%
GME Resources 10,100 5.4% $0.22 A$1,000 A$2,222 0.1%
Intellect Holdings 9,051 15.7% $0.42 A$0 A$3,801 0.1%
InterRISK (Unlisted) 20.0% A$1,080 A$1,000 0.0%
Metals Exploration 10,626 18.4% $0.96 A$4,207 A$10,201 0.3%
MYOB 32,301 8.4% $0.94 A$23,100 A$30,363 1.0%
NSX 6,605 13.3% $0.63 A$4,385 A$4,161 0.1%
Premier Investments 14,375 15.9% $6.05 A$11,066 A$86,969 3.0%
Tandou 2,085 8.2% $0.80 A$2,861 A$1,668 0.1%
Tattersall's 21,750 3.1% $3.32 A$69,243 A$72,210 2.5%
Tooth & Co 31,055 24.9% $0.06 A$0 A$1,770 0.1%
Total Australia (UK£000) £75,818 £121,486 10.3%
UK/Europe:
DMC 2,700 17.3%
3.14
8,200
8,478 0.7%
Freeport 1,504 4.0% £4.03 £6,769 £6,058 0.5%
Newbury Racecourse 612 20.0% £9.40 £2,600 £5,753 0.5%
Young Brewery 'A' 731 10.0% £28.00 £4,079 £20,468 1.7%
Young Brewery - Non Voting 1,196 24.9% £24.18 £5,363 £28,919 2.4%
Total UK/Europe (UK£000) £24,341 £66,916 5.9%
Other:
Courts (Sing) 16,088 10.0% S$0.70 S$8,848 S$11,261 0.3%
Pertama (Sing) 18,651 7.8% S$0.39 S$6,528 S$7,274 0.2%
Santa Fe Financial (USA) 90 6.4% US$16.25 US$1,018 US$1,460 0.1%
Tower (NZ) 71,021 19.9% NZ$3.27 NZ$88,148 NZ$232,239 6.7%
Turners Auctions (NZ) 5,316 19.4% NZ$1.73 NZ$11,163 NZ$9,196 0.3%
Undisclosed/unlisted £66,450 £66,450 5.6%
Total Other (UK£000) £105,749 £155,142 13.1%
Total investments (UK£000) £343,543 29.3%
Associates / JVs:
Australian Country Spinners - (AU) - Unlisted 100.0% A$3,000 A$3,000 0.1%
Australian Wealth Management (AU) 109,699 19.9% $2.19 A$80,718 A$240,240 8.2%
CPI Group (AU) 14,294 22.8% $0.46 A$8,012 A$6,504 0.2%
Green's Foods (AU) 41,913 36.9% $0.71 A$20,775 A$29,758 1.0%
Maryborough Sugar Factory 825 22.4% $12.00 A$5,871 A$9,897 0.3%
Nationwide Accident (UK) 14,063 31.3% £1.62 £8,191 £22,712 1.9%
Rattoon 7,743 20.2% $0.30 A$2,750 A$2,323 0.1%
Total associates (UK£000) £57,211 £140,772 11.8%
Subsidiaries:
Canberra Investment Corporation (AU) 59,044 67.3% $1.32 A$22,772 A$77,938 2.7%
Capral Aluminium (AU) 101,926 52.4% $1.29 A$180,508 A$131,485 4.5%
Coats Group (UK) - (Unlisted) 100.0% £246,000 £499,061 42.2%
Staveley Industries (US) - (Unlisted) 100.0% £0 £17,600 1.5%
Tafmo (Unlisted) 50.8% A$15,740 A$15,740 0.5%
Turners & Growers (NZ) 45,992 62.0% $2.50 NZ$71,525 NZ$114,980 3.3%
Total subsidiaries (UK£000) £358,845 £646,700 54.7%
Cash £208,055 17.6%
less Capital Notes (Redeem 2006 & 2008) £157,379 -13.3%
Net Cash £50,676 4.3%
Net assets (UK£000) £1,181,690 100.2%
Shares on issue (m) 1,144.0
Options on issue (m) 79.4
Option proceeds on exercise (UK£000) £34,964
Net asset backing per fully diluted share (NZ$) 2.94
Source: First NZ Capital Securities
Exchange Rates: UK£/NZ$ 0.3385
UK£/EUR 1.4828
A$/NZ$ 0.8363
US$/£ 1.904
£/A$ 0.4047
US$/NZ$ 0.6444
S$/NZ$ 1.0101
September 5, 2006

[senor guacamole]

Cheers Contrarian....
plenty of data to for me to digest there..
in the sea of data i seized on the
net asset backing of 2.94$/ fully diluted share....seems unusual that the company cost less than its net asset backing considering its run by an investor of sir Rons impressive record...i would have thought SP would be at about the aggregate value of the investments GPG holds or if anything at a premium, perhaps i am missing something here....?

[Cooper]

Ola senor...

Companies like GPG trade at a discount to NTA because of the cost of breaking up the company and selling the assets, should that have to happen.

As the price for the assets wouldn't necessarily be what they're valued at, or because breaking the company up would incur costs, then the true "value" (if there is such a thing) is slightly less than NTA.

[stevieb]

Against that you could take the view that the whole reason we invest via a "manager", e.g. GPG rather than directly is that we take the view that the "manager" adds value. I certain believe that as an added value GPG provides "active" management, i.e. they don't just invest, they take board positions and try and change the company.

As an example I have for some time had shares in PMC (Platinum Capital), these trade well above their NAV because Platinum are so good at adding value. Not sure why GPG is any different to this really. I regard GPG as just as good in this role.

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by stevieb

Against that you could take the view that the whole reason we invest via a "manager", e.g. GPG rather than directly is that we take the view that the "manager" adds value. I certain believe that as an added value GPG provides "active" management, i.e. they don't just invest, they take board positions and try and change the company.

As an example I have for some time had shares in PMC (Platinum Capital), these trade well above their NAV because Platinum are so good at adding value. Not sure why GPG is any different to this really. I regard GPG as just as good in this role.

Just a question for you stevie (as I was looking at Platinum a few weeks ago) but why pay premium to NAV on shares, when you can get into their funds directly without paying premium ?? Though minimum investment level may put a few people off (either $20000 or $30000 AUD from dim memory)

[warthog]

NTA is highly context-dependent. A strategic stake in a company is frequently worth more than its NTA.

The "cost of breakup" position doesn't really apply to GPG as their assets are usually pretty liquid. FTX on the other hand might incur quite considerable costs if it went through a fire-sale process.

[stevieb]

quote:Originally posted by kura


quote:Originally posted by stevieb

Against that you could take the view that the whole reason we invest via a "manager", e.g. GPG rather than directly is that we take the view that the "manager" adds value. I certain believe that as an added value GPG provides "active" management, i.e. they don't just invest, they take board positions and try and change the company.

As an example I have for some time had shares in PMC (Platinum Capital), these trade well above their NAV because Platinum are so good at adding value. Not sure why GPG is any different to this really. I regard GPG as just as good in this role.

Just a question for you stevie (as I was looking at Platinum a few weeks ago) but why pay premium to NTA on shares, when you can get into their funds directly without paying premium ?? Though minimum investment level may put a few people off (either $20000 or $30000 AUD from dim memory)

Bloody good question. I didn't actually pay a premium to NAV as I have had these for some time, but yes I'd be looking to invest direct if was doing this now (in fact I do have some direct in Plantinum International and Platinum Japan also).

In recent times I have thought the premium to NTA is a bit ridiculous, current share price $2.40 vs NTA of about $1.75 so have just withdrawn half of this and moved to HHV (Hunter Hall Global Value) where this trades at a reasonable discount to the equivalent fund (Hunter Value Growth Trust). While I do rate Platinum highly feel that Hunter Hall is a similarly good manager and in similar markets. If this premium keeps up (seems to be getting greater for PMC and the other way for HHV) may well move the lot.

[Cooper]

quote:Originally posted by warthog

NTA is highly context-dependent. A strategic stake in a company is frequently worth more than its NTA.

The "cost of breakup" position doesn't really apply to GPG as their assets are usually pretty liquid. FTX on the other hand might incur quite considerable costs if it went through a fire-sale process.


Sure, I agree... company specific... But the question wasn't "do you think GPG should be trading at a discount?" But "Why would they be?". The should is best answered with one's cheque book.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Cooper


quote:Originally posted by warthog

NTA is highly context-dependent. A strategic stake in a company is frequently worth more than its NTA.

The "cost of breakup" position doesn't really apply to GPG as their assets are usually pretty liquid. FTX on the other hand might incur quite considerable costs if it went through a fire-sale process.


Sure, I agree... company specific... But the question wasn't "do you think GPG should be trading at a discount?" But "Why would they be?". The should is best answered with one's cheque book.


A significant driver is percepton of risk. Specifically, the market's collective take on the risk of GPGs performance vs. the risk of other options (including cash).

[Paddy]

Phaedrus: "Although GPG has struck resistance at $2.73, it remains in an uptrend and it would take a drop below the $2.38 support level to break this"

Phaedrus - as a person of limited experience, I would be interested in your opinion at the current price of $2.36

How far under the $2.38 level and for how long before you would consider the up-trend broken?

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

We shouldn't be too surprised at the poor performance of GPG's shareprice over the last few months - the OBV upward trendline was broken back in April (marked by Red arrow).

This weakness should be viewed in context. The OBV uptrend was broken by sideways action - not a downtrend or a sudden drop. Price action is still well above a trendline that has held for years. Although GPG has struck resistance at $2.73, it remains in an uptrend and it would take a drop below the $2.38 support level to break this.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/GPG915001.gif

Phaedrus you have not compensated for the 10:11 share split that occured with a record date of 23rd June 06.

That would make a trend break closer to $2.17.

[warthog]

Guinness Peat Group PLC
28 September 2006

For Immediate Release

GUINNESS PEAT GROUP plc

COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENT

POSTING OF INTERIM REPORT AND ACCOUNTS

Guinness Peat Group plc announces that it is today releasing to the UKLA Document Viewing Facility copies of its interim results.

This document may also shortly be viewed on the Guinness Peat Group plc website at gpgplc.com.

Richard Russell

Company Secretary

Guinness Peat Group plc
28 September 2006
---
Anybody seen this document?

[777]

It is just the Interim Report which arrived in the mail today.

[Phaedrus]

Quite right PT - well spotted. Corrected chart attached. Sorry about that! GPG now looks even better.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/GPG929002.gif

Paddy, An uptrend is presumed to be in effect until it is broken by a downtrend. A downtrend begins with a lower Low after a lower high. GPG is still making higher highs AND higher Lows, so no trend change is imminent. More simply, the green trendline shows GPG's steady rate of appreciation - so long as price action remains above this there is no need to worry at all.

[Paddy]

Cheers Phaedrus & PT

[djones]

Just a question Phaedrus, what program do you use to chart your software and where do you get your data?

[Snow Leopard]

I admit to buying some GPG today (@$2.44 a pop)
The original idea was to buy yesterday but what with one thing and another me and and the internet did not meet until after trading hours. Still no harm done.
My theory is that GPG will maintain it's reasonably relentless long-term SP appreciation and that the NZ$ will at some point come off the current ridiculous levels to ensure this.

Disc: Also have TWR

[777]

From stuff.co

B U S I N E S S S T O R Y
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GPG fears loss of tax-rules 'holiday'
06 October 2006

By DAVID HARGREAVES

Sir Ron Brierley investment vehicle Guinness Peat Group is pressing the Government to honour a five-year "holiday" the company was promised from new overseas investment tax rules.

GPG's New Zealand director, Tony Gibbs, said yesterday he was concerned that, under amended proposals being considered by the finance and expenditure select committee, the "holiday" could be dropped – potentially affecting GPG's 27,000 New Zealand shareholders.

Sponsored Links
It’s about you. ASB Business.
"It sounds like they are trying to wriggle out of a commitment made to our shareholders," Mr Gibbs said.

Finance Minister Michael Cullen and Revenue Minister Peter Dunne said last month that a decision on the GPG exemption would be made by the select committee.

Mr Gibbs said he had written to both ministers last month seeking confirmation that the exemption would be retained. Though the letters had been acknowledged, he had not yet received a formal response.

"The Government undertook to support the GPG exemption. GPG and its shareholders expect that the Government will honour that commitment."

A spokesman for Dr Cullen said yesterday that the GPG exemption had been made to accommodate the company's position as it related to the original proposed legislation. "Given that (the legislation) may possibly change it is appropriate that they (the committee) make a final decision on the application of the exemption," he said.



Mr Gibbs had opposed the original proposals announced earlier this year. These had included an unrealised capital gains tax on Kiwi shareholders in foreign companies. As GPG is London registered its Kiwi shareholders would potentially have been affected. After much lobbying from GPG and supporters, the Government agreed in May to give GPG the five-year "holiday".

Last month Dr Cullen and Mr Dunne signalled a reversal of the Government's original plans. Under its new overseas investment proposals, the Government now favours a "deemed rate of return" method, in which individuals would be taxed on a maximum of 5 per cent of the opening market value of their offshore shares in one year.

It is intended to rework the existing legislation at the select committee stage.

GPG opposes the new proposals, which Mr Gibbs has described as "a capital gains tax in drag".

In new submissions to the select committee, GPG is urging the Government to withdraw the new proposals from the Taxation (Annual Rates, Savings Investment and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill that is before Parliament and put those proposals into a new bill.

"Inland Revenue's generic tax policy process is not being followed, which requires that major tax reform pass through five distinct phases of the policy process, moving from the conceptual to the concrete," Mr Gibbs says in the submission.

"The compromise proposal is conceptually very different to the proposals in the bill.

"GPG is concerned that the compromise proposal has been developed on the hoof and that due process is not being followed.

"Major tax reform of this magnitude needs to follow the generic tax policy process to create sound and effective legislation."

[Phaedrus]

DJ, I use MetaStock charting software and get my data from Infoscan, but there are plenty of other ways of achieving the same result.

[winner69]

New media laws in Aussie in place

James already made a play ..... Ron has been planning this for ages ..... and as some plays

Watch this space

[djones]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

New media laws in Aussie in place

James already made a play ..... Ron has been planning this for ages ..... and as some plays

Watch this space


Please explain furthur winner!

[shasta]

djones

Winner is saying Sir Ron has wanted to get into the Aussie Media scene for a long time & due to Govt intervention hasnt been able to.

With the rules having changed that foreigners can now own media assets (incl TV etc) dont be too surprised if GPG make a play for some media related assets with there large warchest.

Not in the same league as the PBL deal, but then again they have alot of funds available!

Keep a close watch on GPG...

[Paddy]

Is it just me or is GPG looking like a good buy at this (2.40ish) price?

Any thoughts on short term price?

[warthog]

Some people are accumulating ...

[Base Trader]

Becuase the tangible tax effect of being classified as a non-NZ (of Aus) Company and the effect this would have on the share price is the most pressing issue they face at present - for shareholder value.

[777]

You sound new to the market familyguy. Its only worth what people are prepared to pay. Put in a bid at $3.00 and I would possibly let you have a few of mine.

[Paddy]

Sign me up to assist familyguy at $3. Such is the community spirit I have...

Seriously though, I'll be accumulating at this level too.

[gulf]

There were a number of valuations around the $3 mark and with recent share market action plus Coats moving along it is not hard to see $3 as a target price.

[stevieb]

Would have to agree that if you have only been around a short time GPG might be a bit of a disappointment.

For those who have been around longer we all know this is a bit of an abheration in a great long term run, so back to the original question, yes this may well be a good time to topup!

[777]

Down goes the dollar ,up goes GPG.

[warthog]

The hog has been keeping an eye on the NZD/USD NZD/GPB and noted that some placed their bets before Mr Bollard went public, as it were.

[coge]

Sound volume today. Still languishing in the absence of real news. But yes Warthog, good they didn't hike the OCR. Looking forward to a new year rally.

[warthog]

The hog holds the view that exporters are knackered, and a rate rise will be a double hit for that sector. Additionally, the BOPD is pretty out of control and a rate rise will pour fuel on that fire. Further, talk of more competitive fuel prices takes the heat out of higher wholesale fuel costs on the basis of a slightly lower NZD, hence the inflation aspect doesn't look as bad as it could with no rate change.

[warthog]

Big volume going through today - anybody got a handle on what's going on?

[Taijon]

Aust Wealth Management has run up a lot in the last 2 days. Perhaps a takeover imminent?

[hesiod]

Quest Asset Partners filed a SSH on AUW with 5.12 % buying since late June.

[Paddy]

Does anyone have the ability to do a long term chart of the relationship btw the NZD and GPG.NZ?

Really for interests sake more than anything. I'm already aware that there is a link for obvious reasons

[Base Trader]

American & Efird reported today 4Q resusults (sub of Ruddick Corp). They saw sales up 7.3% to US$87m and EBIT up 129% to US$1.6m. As the largest competitor to Coats their results are important to consider.

Two points. Thread markets are stable to improving. Second, pretty poor returns at 1.8% EBIT margin - which does not bode well for investment expansion in this capital intensive business.

Coats is competitively in a good position and the industry looks sound if with relatively slim margins. An interesting comment from A&E was that they expressed an intention to lift margins to 10% - but that appears rather optimistic - but would mean nivana for Coats given its market position and cost structures.

Spinrite - the largest North American craft producer reports on Wednesday 15th Nov. Will be important indicator for Coats craft business.

[Lizard]

Thanks Base Trader. Some very interesting points there. A big cheer for the goal of 10% margins!

(Is that what it's going to take to get Gryffyn back on this thread?)

[coge]

Yeah, where is our main cheerleader? Don't tell me he's sold!

If any company can do it Coats can.

[Sideshow Bob]

Gryff just doesn't want to make that 5,000th post to turn himself into an ugru!

[Paddie]

Nor should he!!!!!!!!!!!!

Paddie[:p][:p]

[biker]

Long shot as it may seem,what is the possibilty of an international buyer making a bid for GPG?
Any blocking stakes held?

[Base Trader]

No chance. No doubt there will be interest in some of the GPG assets from time to time but zero chance in the company as a whole.

The largest asset is 35% of total assets - so why take out the full group if you only targeted a specific asset? You would certainly not get Management as part of the deal.

[warthog]

Biker the model dictates that it is the investments that GPG makes that are - especially after GPG involvement - the objects of takeover interest rather than the umbrella company as such.

[coge]

Things are looking up today. Could it be the first stirrings of the great annual northerly migration?

[Base Trader]

Spinrite produced some pretty poor results - reflecting a weak craft market. As a lead indicator for GPG's craft thread sales - expect no recovery from 1H06.

Coats I expect to continue in growth from Industrial Thread but will not have the easy runs that the Crafts market provided in 2005>

[gulf]

Thanks BS.Still plenty of other good things going on.

[gamerice]

It has been very quite in the GPG front for a while,
i am rather disappointed...

but again, whenever i sell out a share, the price jumps right up the next day, no exception (oh well, DPC might have been an exeception)...[xx(][xx(]

[Paddy]

Currency issues continue... New Years' gift I hope

[777]

From the Herald this morning.

Business

GPG banking on a try in stadium play

Thursday November 23, 2006
By Adam Bennett

Sir Ron Brierley's Guinness Peat Group appears to be preparing a bid to "greenmail" the ANZ Banking Group by building a blocking stake in the owner of Sydney's Telstra Stadium.

GPG this week spent A$160,000 to increase its holding in Stadium Australia Group from 7.68 per cent to 9.26 per cent - just short of the 10 per cent required to block a A$190 million bid from ANZ's Stadium Investments.

Stadium Australia Group has recommended shareholders accept ANZ's offer. ANZ is a major creditor of the debt-ridden Stadium Australia Group. Its subsidiary Stadium Investments says it wants to simplify the asset's structure and move it into its new Diversified Infrastructure Trust.

Should GPG reach 10 per cent, ANZ could face paying a premium to dislodge it from Stadium Australia's register and proceed with its plan.

The 80,500-seat stadium was built for the 2000 Olympics at a cost of A$690 million, but its June result showed it carrying over $200 million in debt.

t

[warthog]

Interesting to see how the Tower entitlements situation plays out. TWR AU and NZ appear to be trading at a discount right now, so the hog sees more fat in there for GPG.

[Paddy]

TWR situation could also be contributing to current GPG "weakness"

[stevieb]

quote:Originally posted by Paddy

TWR situation could also be contributing to current GPG "weakness"


Well I know who's judgement I'll be folowing here. Aust Wealth Management had similar "weakness" when split off and came down nearly to the 80c rights price and look at them now. I would have thought it pretty clear that anyone who knows GPG would know that GPG are looking to gain from this due to others stupidity. So for me I'll be taking up the rights, it is the NZ arm I'd be worried about.

It's quite unusual for the MD to skip over to the splitoff and in my mind does not speak much for the parent!

[Paddy]

Agreed stevieb, hence the ""

[gamerice]

GPG has been a disappointing buy for me, just lack-luster....
but again, patience will be rewarded, good luck to all those hold.

Uranium stocks on the ASX just looks extremely tasty for me atm, especially AGS, looks like a sure bet to me, with the imminent JORC upgrade releasing in mid DEC. I am all into it!

[Taijon]

I'm surprised GPG hasn't made any announcement regarding the proposal for a buyout of Green's Foods in Australia at 90 cents per share by Nestle.

GPG and another company are to buy part of Greens for $42 million before the buyout of the shares occurs.

GPG owns about 37% of Greens and this investment represents about 1% of their total portfolio. While this appears small the 90 cents per share to be paid will see GPG make a profit of around $A 17 million. Not bad.

Transactions require various approvals so this profit won't appear in this 2006 calendar year but its a good start for the 2007 year, assuming the independent Greens Directors agree and it all goes through.

[Sideshow Bob]

Green's to be Nestle's pet project
Blair Speedy
November 30, 2006
GREEN'S Foods is to be split up, with Swiss food giant Nestle set to pay $95 million for its pet food business, while Ron Brierley's Guinness Peat Group and listed private equity investor CVC Ltd will pay $42 million for Green's consumer food division.
The Green's board yesterday announced it would recommend Nestle's proposal to acquire all of its shares at 90c each via a scheme of arrangement, valuing the company at around $137 million. Unlike an on-market takeover offer, in order to proceed a scheme of arrangement requires the approval of at least 50 per cent of the target company's shareholders owning 75 per cent of the shares.

However, prior to the execution of the scheme, Green's loss-making consumer foods business will be sold to Guinness Peat and CVC for $42 million, effectively reducing the net price paid by Nestle for the pet food division to $95 million.

Nestle's Purina Petcare division already owns the Friskies and Fancy Feast cat food and Lucky Dog and Bonnie dog food brands in Australia, and the acquisition of Green's Supercoat dry dog food, pet treats and dry cat food brands will strengthen its market position.

However, Green's 39.5 per cent stake in Bestcare Petfoods will not go to Nestle but will be sold along with the consumer foods business. Guinness Peat and CVC already own around 37.5 per cent and 14.2 per cent of Green's Foods respectively, and will sell their shares into the Nestle scheme following their purchase of the consumer foods division and the Bestcare stake.

Green's consumer business manufactures and sells branded and private label cake mixes, sauce and gravy mixes, canned foods, cereals and snacks under the Green's, Basco, Lowan, and Poppin brands, as well as the caramel popcorn classic Lolly Gobble Bliss Bombs.

The company's three directors who are not aligned to either CVC or Guinness Peat have commissioned an independent expert's report on whether the scheme is in the best interests of minority holders.

Shares in Green's closed up 6.5c at 87.5c yesterday.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20844061-643,00.html

[blockhead]

What time SSB ?...with a tail wind[:p]

[Sideshow Bob]

quote:Originally posted by blockhead


What time SSB ?...with a tail wind[:p]


Finished about 4hr 7m. Got quite excited there for a while, as thought going to break 4 hours. Peaked at 79.4kmph, and downhill got a bit sketchy in places.

Fords were high, and through the valley, wind helped in places, but in others it was quite slow. But tail wind up the 2nd hill which was excellent!! :D

Fastest time of the 3 years I have done it. Will be back next year to try to improve by 8 mins........

[Sideshow Bob]

Didn't see you there, so presume didn't make a last minute entry?? Or were you just way up with the leaders??

[blockhead]

DNS for Blocky, top time for yourself !!

[firpohorse]

Anyone got a reason why this share suddenly shot up 4 cents today after doing nothing for the last two months?!

Just curious.

[Ricardo]

Perhaps related to TWR doing likewise, but why its taken till now, who knows.

[living2]

Gpg has stayed behind the market lately/Wonder when it will be due for a rerating
Disclaimer: hold GPG

[Sideshow Bob]

If positive news keeps coming like this, then will only be a matter of time.....


GPG does well from underwriting role
NZPA | Thursday, 21 December 2006

Sir Ron Brierley's investment vehicle Guinness Peat Group has done well out of underwriting a capital raising by Tower Australia.


As the sole underwriter of the $A160 million issue of 100 million new Tower Australia shares GPG picked up rights not exercised or traded by shareholders, the NZ Herald newspaper reported.

It paid $A21.7m ($NZ24.8m) for shares valued by the market at more than $A40m and got a $A2.8m underwriting fee.

The extra shares GPG acquired took its stake in Tower Australia from 19.8 percent to 23.86 percent.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/3906797a13.html

[stevieb]

quote:Originally posted by Sideshow Bob

If positive news keeps coming like this, then will only be a matter of time.....


GPG does well from underwriting role
NZPA | Thursday, 21 December 2006

Sir Ron Brierley's investment vehicle Guinness Peat Group has done well out of underwriting a capital raising by Tower Australia.


As the sole underwriter of the $A160 million issue of 100 million new Tower Australia shares GPG picked up rights not exercised or traded by shareholders, the NZ Herald newspaper reported.

It paid $A21.7m ($NZ24.8m) for shares valued by the market at more than $A40m and got a $A2.8m underwriting fee.

The extra shares GPG acquired took its stake in Tower Australia from 19.8 percent to 23.86 percent.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/3906797a13.html

Don't you just love that easy money, who are those fools who didn't pick up their shares, I stumped up for mine?

Oh well, can't complain for us GPG holders.

[living2]

Have you read this Stevieb
An article in the Herald this morning to get the toes twitching
When Coates operations are lined up I wonder what it will be worth seeing as its a dominate player in its market>It is valued by analyst in the past at $600m>How about EBIT $200-300????
Valuation ???? What are you pioking???

Golden Ticket

For those in the game of analysing the fortunes at Guinness Peat Group, talk this week about a junket to the inner workings of the Coats business in China has an air of Willy Wonka's Chocolate Factory about it.

The analysts are certainly excited. GPG has never spun too many yarns about the 100 per cent-owned threads business, which accounts for 40 per cent of its investments. GPG executive director Tony Gibbs says a trip is being planned, but is in the early stages.

"At some stage we'll take some analysts up to China. It will blow them apart with what we've got there. You see a million-square-foot plant making zips and winding thread and it's a sight to see."

Coats has plants in Guangzhou and Shenzhen as well as some near Beijing and Shanghai.

It also has huge operations in Vietnam, Bangladesh, India and through South America. It has operations in 68 countries.

Macquarie Equities investment director Arthur Lim says: "We are picking GPG to perform in 2007 on the back of a turnaround on Coats' profitability. [Coats] is an asset which has held GPG's share price back in the past.

"Also, the new offshore tax regime will benefit GPG, and with the NZ dollar at current levels GPG is a currency play as well."

Lim reckons it is also a good sign when an investment company is keen to show off an asset to the investment world.

[Flying Goat]

Hi GPG Followers,

This is probably a sad question to be asking on christmas day, but what the hell... does anyone know, roughly what gpg's current net asset backing per share is at current (higher nzd) exchange rates and current share prices of all its holdings? Anyone regularly monitoring this? Latest financials stated net asset backing of NZD 222.03 per share but my broking website states nta of 158.16, which leads me to my other question: assuming we are comfortable with defining the difference between NTA and NAV as being that NAV generally includes intagibles etc, another question emerges: given that gpg is considered an 'investment vehicle' should their NTA not refer to the market prices of shares in the (listed) companies they own? I.e. because those shares could (theoretically) be sold tomorrow, their market price is a tangible asset, or does the nta relative to GPG relate to the net tangible assets of the companies they hold (which obviously in most cases will be below their market price). If any long time GPG followers are able to decypher what i am going on about, i would really appreciate some clarification or info on the above questions.

Thanks!
FG

[warthog]

Much of the value in GPG is in unlisted investments (e.g. Coats) or stakes in businesses that have some strategic as well as inherent value (e.g. Tower). Further, most of GPG's investments are undergoing some turnaround activity or some degree of active management/input from GPG to increase their value, and then you have the currency angle. Ultimately, GPG is an active - as oppsed to passive - investor, and in general isn't well or easily understood by the market. The best you can do is obtain information about how the various GPG activities are progressing and the state of the various markets they are in.

[biker]

One investment they have got horribly wrong is Capral Aluminium in Aust (CAA).They are showing a substantial loss with no short term change in sight.I'm still waiting for a profit on this one but have an average entry price which is a lot less than GPG's.

[artemis]

Extract on GPG from brokers picks for 2007 article in today's Herald:

Guinness Peat Group - which has returned a compounding 20 per cent a year since Sir Ron took the helm in 1991 - is this year's top pick, earning a place in five of the nine portfolios.

"GPG has a proven track record of investment out-performance, which we believe should warrant a premium," says Forsyth Barr.

Forsyth Barr warns any gains are likely to be limited to a large extent by uncertainty around the value of its investment in UK thread maker Coats. The business now represents around 48 per cent of GPG assets.

[firpohorse]

Up 5c today!!! Wait for the speeding ticket!!

[777]

Last years profit announcement was on the 14/3/06 so about nine weeks away approx for this years. Good currency play as well at the moment.

[Bling_Bling]

Anyone got a valuation on this company?

[warthog]

Bling bling, GPG is a real moving target. You can try and value the various holdings but ultimately the larger components are very difficult to value. Then there's the currency factor and you're really in uncharted territory.

[gulf]

S/M they should have about NZ$800m in cash.Would make a nice dividend.

[Bling_Bling]

I hope they return some of that cash to shareholders. If not, it is nice to be cashed up for opportunities.

[gulf]

what is going to get the share price up 10%-20%?not much interest at the moment

[COLIN]

quote:Originally posted by gulf

S/M they should have about NZ$800m in cash.Would make a nice dividend.

They've been sitting on a huge wad of cash for years - should have spent it at the bottom of the cycle - not much point in spending it now.
From having been a devoted disciple of Sir Ron's GPG for many years -and having achieved excellent reward as a result - I am now starting to lose my faith and have shed a material portion of my holding. There is still a lot of unreleased value in many of their holdings, but I am not impressed with the failure to bring Coats alive by now, which constitutes a significant portion of their total portfolio - it reminds me too much of the disastrous decision by BIL to invest in Thistle, all those years ago.

[777]

Total lack of interest in GPG even though approaching bonus date. Down to 227 now with a theoretical 206 ex.

[gulf]

Bad year for the GPG punter, even with brokers having higher valuations there is no interest.You would have to say we do not get much info from the company on progress.

[Ttops]

Try KFL instead. Weekly NAV reports. On an uptrend not a downtrend. Phaedrus would say you should have been out?

ADJUSTED %CHANGE v TIME (From Supercharts) Compare yourself.
Share 3 yrs 2yrs 1 yr 6 mths 3 mths
KFL 80 74 32 8 7
GPG 43 34 -6 -4 -3

[777]

Impressive as KFL has been I would rather have my money offshore Treetops. With GPG, which I have been with since inception, I am prepared to wait for its next uptrend.

[Ttops]

Rising dollar against it at present as in FPH. Looks like some are shifting to CEN and AIA. Could be better opportunities as time is money as the Scot McD would say. Heavy support at 2.28-2.30 as it bounced off a 2.27 low.
Disc: Hold GPG too but only 8% of portfolio.

[ScrappyO]

Been out of this stock a few months now. Was in it for 9yrs. Might get back in if Coats looks like picking up. coats seems to be what moves this share.

[a bowden]

Can someone explain to me what happend today with this stock, is this ex-capatilisation?

[artemis]

Yes.

[clips]

huh...tell me more.....ex capatilisation ??

[whatsup]

GPG went "ex" its so called (rather meaningless) 1/10 "BONUS ISSUE " hensethe drop although I thinh it finished up a little on its theoritical price or am I wrong!??

[tim23]

1:10 ex bonus should mean a loss of 1/11 of the share price so they were about right today.

[Hoop]

Can someone enlighten me as to why this stock has risen so much in the last couple of days.[?]
A million share order this morning.[?][?]
At the moment I feel like a mushroom

[a bowden]

Because the 1:10 bonus that was issued this week, meant that there was a 1:11 loss in the share price. As 'tim23' said. So at the moment the stock is increasing in price, as it is predicted that is should return to the price it was before ex-capatalisation, which occured on monday. I was shocked as well, but now i understand

[777]

There is no certainty that the shares will return to the pre bonus price. Any rise or fall is supply and demand as for all shares. Obviously with the current rise the demand is greater than the supply so the buyers are prepared to pay more. "a bowden" there is nothing for you to understand nor be shocked by.I actually sold some this morning as I think there are better opportunities elsewhere for the time being.

[Hoop]

Quote.... I was shocked as well, but now i understand
Huh.. [?] I must be slow because I still don't understand [?]

In my view the Ex bonus is a red herring..... more shares to the same pie.

Mr Market has all of a sudden woken up to an undervalued ? stock ...why now [?] espec with the NZ$ going up, countering the rise.

[Rif-Raf]

All other things equal, the price ex bonus would have dropped and stayed that way. However like Hoop have noticed a lot of strength in last few days. Perhaps they are about to start a new run back into favour?

[Rumplestiltskin]

quote:Originally posted by Rif-Raf

All other things equal, the price ex bonus would have dropped and stayed that way. However like Hoop have noticed a lot of strength in last few days. Perhaps they are about to start a new run back into favour?


A new run back into favour will still depend the fortunes of Coats and Capral aluminium. So far, not two of GPG's brightest investments it would seem, and with the potential of being their biggest cock- ups.
777, youve been with GPG for a while. Care to share the current 'better oportunities"?

[777]

I still have a stack of GPG but they have been going sideways for long enough so have sold some for cash to trade in other short term deals. I am more a gambler than a lot of others on these forums and had too much tied up with GPG over the past 12 months which did not payoff. There is some action in NZO for a while so may make a play there. Who knows? Just need to have a bit of fun I suppose.

[ScrappyO]

They should have done what they said they would do with GPG and thats was to end it around 2005 or at least have a finite life ,but now they seem to be getting themselves into to much. Last year they also had that issue of shares but that didnt came to anything.
Ron your to old so let go.I say give up GPG.

Disc hold

[Ttops]

Hoop I think it works like this.
GPG has a habit of rebounding off its post split low simply due to the market perceiving the shares as being cheaper. In fact they are exactly the "same value" just more shares at a lower price with the same total value. See PT and Colin p61 of this thread. Perhaps some savvy GPG holders who notice this habit, sell before the split and depress the price a little in the process and then buy back in as the price increases. It shouldn't make any difference of course any more than any other time but there is possibly an ignorance factor. A newbie or three with money to burn suddenly see the price drop, don't understand why, see it as a bargain and start to buy causing some buying pressure and upward momentum as the sellers buy back as well. For the newbies out there the pre split equivalent can be found by multiplying the current price by 11/10 or 1.1 So 210 x1.1=231
Anyone selling at say 2.31 pre split and buying back in at 201 ex split has a 4.5% gain less brokerage. Anyone been doing this? [:0]
Hope that helps Hoop but I may be up a tree on this one.

[777]

My guess ScrappyO is that when Coates life in GPG's stable is over then that is just what will happen. Lets just hope it is just not what Thistle Hotels was to Brierley Investments.

The 5 year reprieve from the FDR rules possibily gives some indication of the time frame. All assumption on my part though.

[neopole]

also,
the NZ$ is soon????? to come down in value,
and GPG is still sitting on a warchest.
I always top up ex split and have never sold a share in the last 6 years. and i think GPG is on the cusp of being a large player which will allow it to take on bigger risks and opertunities.
i consider GPG's life so far as its apprentiship years and is now armed with a warchest and seasoned directors. i dont think old Mr B has much of a say in the companies activities anymore except for his advice and views.
my opinions only.
and a happy holder.

[stevo1]

i have been in gpg since they listed .in recent years the management have rewarded themselves rather well while pushing out yearly by 2yrs the benifits of restructure of coates.(is it ever gonna happen?)14yrs odd is a long apprenticeship.about as exciting as watching grass grow.considering markets in general and their performance bit dissappointing really.maybe time to get out the lawnmower and give it the chop. has anyone done ta on it?

[Contrarian]

Gidday

There is an excellent up todate report here www.vond.co.nz

[stevo1]

hi conrarian thanks for that.certainly with valuation of $2.46 with nz$ at 76.36US looks way discounted by the market.(i thought they had sold the shareholding in coles((premier)).still would like to see TA peoples take on it.once again thanks

[Phaedrus]

Well, Stevo, GPG has certainly gone off the boil. Here is a long-term chart such as would be used by fairly conservative, relatively inactive investors. Green arrows mark buy signals, red arrows mark sell signals. You can see that anyone using a trend-following approach would have sold out in 2006 and currently be out of this stock.

Note that the trailing stop has not been hit yet - it would need a Close of below $1.98 to be broken. If you are the type of investor that is quite happy to hold on when a stock tracks sideways, then you would probably use a trailing stop based exit strategy rather than one based on trend indicators. Trailing stops mean less trading activity and this suits some people, but you pay a price in opportunity cost and the fact that if your trailing stop is hit, you will have given a lot more of your gains back to the market as compared with trend indicators.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/GPG630.gif

[Mick100]

Phaedrus, You have not adjusted your chart for the 1:10 share split which took place earlier this month.
.

[Phaedrus]

Yes I have! If I hadn't, you would see a very obvious abrupt (vertical) 9% drop in the shareprice on the day of the split.

[Mick100]

OK, thanks for that.
.

[stevo1]

thanks phaedrus youre a champ

[Mick100]

One thing you have to take into consideration when viewing Phaedrus's charts is the timeframe which those charts cover. On P's chart it appears as though the uptrend has been broken but if you draw a trendline on a 5 yr chart then GPG appears not to have broken it's uptrend.
GPG would have to go below $2.00 to break it's long term uptrend. I'm sure phaedrus is aware of this outcome but, for some reason, has neglected to state it.
.

[shasta]

Cujo

You still in GPG?

Seems a good time to re-enter GPG, with it looking so cheap.

When the chart improves, i will be back in

[Phaedrus]

quote:One thing you have to take into consideration when viewing Phaedrus's charts is the timeframe which those charts cover. On P's chart it appears as though the uptrend has been broken but if you draw a trendline on a 5 yr chart then GPG appears not to have broken it's uptrend.
GPG would have to go below $2.00 to break it's long term uptrend. I'm sure phaedrus is aware of this outcome but, for some reason, has neglected to state it.

That's a strange comment Mick. I must confess that I can't really make any sense of it. The GPG chart as posted spans 6 years, so it more than covers the 5 year period that you are proposing. For 4 of these years, GPG was in an obvious uptrend, and there is only one place that a confirmed trendline can be drawn - exactly where I drew it. I had no discretion at all in the matter.

It almost sounds as though you think I have some sort of sinister intent! I accept that the chart was not good news for GPG holders, but there is not much point in taking shots at the messenger!

Let me guess......you hold GPG, and really, really, really don't want to accept that the 4 year uptrend has ended. Right?

[Mick100]

My data source (ASB sec) shows a rather different chart than yours Phaedrus

The low in 2003 is at 80c whereas your chart shows a low of 95c for the same time

The high in 2006 is at $2.40 whereas your chart shows a high of 2.50 for the same time.

Your chart shows the uptrend has been broken whereas my source shows an unbroken uptrend
Someone has it wrong
I suggest readers check their own data sources before coming to any conclusions regarding GPG's uptrend. It would be a shame if some timid holders were spooked out of their shares, by your chart phaedrus, if it turns out to be based on incorrect inputs.
.

[Phaedrus]

Mick, I think you will find that ASB have not corrected their chart for the recent split. They are not the only ones - take a look at the charts provided by DB and SuperCharts - you can easily see that they too are using uncorrected data. The thing to look for is whether there is a sharp drop in the GPG shareprice in the middle of last month. There shouldn't be.

[Snow Leopard]

To add to the confusion I believe that my data is fully corrected for splits and I have:
Low of $0.869 on the 25/02/2003
High of $2.418 on the 27/07/2006

On a log plot the trend line break was at the end of Feb/beginning of March this year.
Use a linear plot and you are have a few cents of leeway yet.

You pays your money and makes your choice. ;)

[Snow Leopard]

I see the problem.

Phaedrus you may have compensated for this years' stock split but you have not compensated for last years stock split which occured on 23-Jun-06.

regards
Paper Tiger

GIGO

[Phaedrus]

Aaaarrrggghhhh! Well spotted PT! I wish I had noticed it first! My apologies. I have now fixed it, and have attached an amended chart. You can see that it is essentially the same as before and all the commentary still stands unchanged. I will leave the old chart there so that anyone will be able to see that the differences are quite small.

My data now agrees with yours, PT. Re Lin vs log Y axis - It is generally accepted that Log price scales should normally be used especially for longterm charts. Another consideration is that you get a confirmed trendline using a Log scale, but using a Linear price scale the trendline is unconfirmed.

There is no need to focus totally on the trendline though - we can look at the trend itself. To end the 4 year uptrend and go into a downtrend, GPG had to break below the light blue line. It did this at the blue arrow, nearly 4 months ago.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/GPG72.gif

[warthog]

The hog got out of GPG @ $2.48. It hasn't presented much of an opportunity since then in the view of this phacochoerus aethiopicus.

[Arbitrage]

Phaedrus, considering GPG is a UK based stock with most of its earnings off shore, how does the changes in the NZ$ influence the chart? The UK charts appear to tell a different story.

[Phaedrus]

The GPG/NZ$ relationship changed quite abruptly at the end of 2005, going from a "negative" correlation to a "positive" correlation. I'm not too sure what this means or how this comparative chart helps us, but some might find it of interest. A downtrend is a downtrend, regardless of what the underlying causes might be.

Do you really think that the UK chart tells a different story? I don't. I see a longterm uptrend, then a broken trendline, followed by a downtrend. Same as here.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/GPGgbp73.gif

[Jay]

Hey Phaedrus

Thanks again for your good work.

I to have not adjusted my chart in Metastock (V9.1) and are having trouble.
Doing something wrong - the shares suddenly have a price of either $25 or 25c
Using the Downloader and "adjust for split" First date I leave unchanged, last date 23/6/07
Ratio: 1 - 10 or 10 - 1 - either of these seem to produce the above result

What am I doing wrong [:I]

[Unicorn]

Jay
Try 11 - 10 .... after the split you have 11 shares for each 10 you started with.

[Jay]

[:I] DOH!

Thanks Unicorn

[Ttops]

OBV turned upwards? Big off market orders yesterday. Something happening at last maybe?

[Taijon]

GPG disclosed a 6.3% interest in CSR in OZ yesterday. Latter has interests in sugar, building materials (including aluminium products) and property. Perhaps this will be GPG's next big play - facilitating a merger between FBU, CSR and Capral!!!!!!!!

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by Taijon

GPG disclosed a 6.3% interest in CSR in OZ yesterday. Latter has interests in sugar, building materials (including aluminium products) and property. Perhaps this will be GPG's next big play - facilitating a merger between FBU, CSR and Capral!!!!!!!!


Thats what we like to see lateral thinking, & what about there Australian Stadium interests, the plot thickens...:D

Taijon - check the Sharetraders meeting thread

[777]

That 6.3% in CSR is over $A193 million at todays price.

[corporateraider]

Hello Taijon

This move into CSR is classic gpg. CSR trading on a relatively low pe. They probably see that the split of this company is better than the sum total. The aussie media have been saying this for a while. But its market cap at 3.2mill is way too big for gpg.

But why a place for fbu? They obviously looked at it before they bought Formica. There are obviously synergies. They both make wallboards for example. But how does the puzzle come together?

I think that this is just gpg buying into an undervalued stock that will benefit from: any upturn in the main oz building markets; someone else buying to rationalise it.

I think that there is much more value in gpg than the market is saying. You just have to look at the wage costs that they have taken out of Coates. This will go straight to the bottom line.

Disc: gpg amongst others

[777]

From this mornings Herald.

Not been much on GPG in the press lately. Hopefully some interest may be generated in the stock.

Friday July 06, 2007
By Liam Dann

* * *

Life in the old dog yet

Life may have been pretty quiet so far this year for Guinness Peat Group - with most of the market focus on the progress of its Coates threads business - but the investment company has proved that it can still generate a bit of market excitement across the Tasman.

News that it has taken a 6 per cent stake in Australia's biggest sugar refiner, CSR, on Tuesday prompted a 5c rise in its share price.

CSR owns a pretty incohesive mix of sugar, aluminium and building materials businesses and has already hinted that it might start selling assets.

The move has sparked speculation across the Tasman that GPG will add some impetus to any restructuring plans.

The Aussies still have healthy respect for GPG chairman and founding father Sir Ron Brierley (he turns 70 this year), who is remembered for his corporate plays of the 80s and 90s.

GPG has bought into CSR with the shares trading at about A$3.50. In the past 12 months they've traded as high as A$3.96 and as low as A$2.81.

GPG shares closed yesterday at $2.07.

[Rumplestiltskin]

There must surely be a Capral Aluminium angle here somewhere with the building supplies businesses.CAA has been a painful, expensive, embarrasment for them and at the very least a face-saving exercise may be under way.

[Flying Goat]

Umm, it appears that nobody in this forum nor the media seem to see the significance of the fact that GPG has been building a stake in Maryborough Sugar or the past 18 months as well as recently making another material purchase of sugar refining assets and land in the same sugar plantation region. Given CSRs involvement in the sugar industry and the perfect countercyclical timing, it strikes me as rather odd that nobody has entertained the idea of joining a few seemingly obvious dots.

[corporateraider]

And the dots are what? They also own a piece of Tooth so they are going to make rum like Bundaberg?

[tim23]

CSR & Maryborough I'm guessing are the dots?

[Mick100]

good work FG
,

[tim23]

FG you are right on I assume you have read Michael Wests column in yesterdays Australian that suggest a similar conclusion to your own - indeed there are dots to be connected!

[winner69]

Another disaster that GPG see hope in .... with a small dabble ... Symex

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/symex-on-rollercoaster-ride/2007/07/07/1183351514371.html

If you have been near the Symex plant you would not be proud being a shareholder

[Snapper]

I bought into GPG at 2.07 thinking that it must be pretty close to the bottom although I knew that it had just gone ex. Subsequently we're now below $2.00. Any TAs out there who think that sub $2.00 is a significant milestone? I would like to buy some more of this as I think that its a good way of getting overseas exposure without the tax implications and its meant to be at a significant discount to underlying investments ($2.41).

Phaedrus, I note that you used OBV as an indicator for this one. Would you be able to post an updated chart?

TIA