COA - Coats Group plc (formerly GPG - Guinness Peat Group Plc)

[Phaedrus]

Hi Snapper - here is an updated GPG chart for you. If you compare it with the chart on page 31 of this thread, you can see that technically, nothing has changed since then. GPG is still in a downtrend and still making new lows. The OBV too is still in a downtrend. Today GPG closed at a previous support level. It will be interesting to see whether this holds or not. The break of the previous support level is marked with a blue arrow. Green arrows mark Buy signals, Red arrows Sell signals.
When you bought at $2.07, you were buying into a confirmed downtrend so you shouldn't be too surprised that GPG has fallen over 5% since then. Buying into downtrends gives a strong likelihood that your investment will be underwater from day 1. What you are asking for now is a chart to help time your attempts to average down. You would have done much better not buying in the first place - certainly there was no technical justification for your purchase at that time.
Please don't take any of this personally Snapper - it is merely your turn to cop my standard, boring "Don't buy into downtrends, Don't average down" repetitive rant!
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/GPG718.gif

[artemis]

Despite what Phaedrus says, buying low may work well with GPG as a key reason for the share price drop in recent weeks is almost certainly the high dollar. Just heard on Nat Radio someone (a banker I think) suggesting a fair price for the kiwi is US55c. OK, that may not happen overnight, or indeed at all, but at some point the kiwi will surely fall. And GPG share price will rise.

[airedale]

Hi Artemis, it makes you wonder if the " banker" is one-eyed, because in this currency debate there are always two players. How can the fair value of the Kiwi be estimated when the $US is sliding against other currencies. The next question to ask is " what is the fair value of the $US? How low can it go?

[artemis]

Agree airedale ... but it was still interesting that the fair rate was pitched that low.

[Viking]

It would certainly be easier if all currency measure its value against Gold~ [:I] but then we have all got away with those~ makes things just that much little more complicated~

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by artemis

Despite what Phaedrus says, buying low may work well with GPG as a key reason for the share price drop in recent weeks is almost certainly the high dollar. Just heard on Nat Radio someone (a banker I think) suggesting a fair price for the kiwi is US55c. OK, that may not happen overnight, or indeed at all, but at some point the kiwi will surely fall. And GPG share price will rise.


Ultimately these views matters not one jot - what matters is the level at which the market is prepared to buy or sell at.

Buying low may work. Buying WIN may work. Buying gold may work. Maybe ADY in Aussie?

But maybe not.

[Snapper]

Thanks for that , Phaedrus. I should have been a bit more patient getting into GPG as I had seen your previous chart. You just can't tell some people!

[Mick100]

Buying into downtrends is only a mistake if your a trader. If your a long term investor it doesn't matter if the shareprice is going up, down or sideways when you buy.
.

[artemis]

quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by artemis

Despite what Phaedrus says, buying low may work well with GPG as a key reason for the share price drop in recent weeks is almost certainly the high dollar. Just heard on Nat Radio someone (a banker I think) suggesting a fair price for the kiwi is US55c. OK, that may not happen overnight, or indeed at all, but at some point the kiwi will surely fall. And GPG share price will rise.


Ultimately these views matters not one jot - what matters is the level at which the market is prepared to buy or sell at.

Buying low may work. Buying WIN may work. Buying gold may work. Maybe ADY in Aussie? But maybe not.

So we just ignore market discussion, much of which is someone or others opinion? Of course the market itself determines the sale price. But the market includes many influences, and not all (or even many) are past performance, ie "fact".

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by artemis

So we just ignore market discussion, much of which is someone or others opinion?

Some people do this completely. Others to a varying degree. But, ultimately, the hog would suggest yes - form your own opinion and act on it. And learn from the results of your choices.


quote:
Of course the market itself determines the sale price. But the market includes many influences, and not all (or even many) are past performance, ie "fact".


This is one reason - in the hog's opinion - why there is so much ininformed and misguided investment activity out there.

But that's OK - the hog needs this. It would be a much harder proposition otherwise.

[Phaedrus]

quote:Buying into downtrends is only a mistake if your a trader. If your a long term investor it doesn't matter if the shareprice is going up, down or sideways when you buy.

I disagree. Even long-term investors are interested in buying their chosen stock as cheaply as possible. What is the hurry? If the stock is going down, why not delay your purchase?

[Snapper]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus


quote:Buying into downtrends is only a mistake if your a trader. If your a long term investor it doesn't matter if the shareprice is going up, down or sideways when you buy.

I disagree. Even long-term investors are interested in buying their chosen stock as cheaply as possible. What is the hurry? If the stock is going down, why not delay your purchase?



Especially when you can get 8% in the bank. I suppose the question for us non-TA people is getting the buying decision right - long-term or short-term if you can nail that then your overall return has to improve.

[Phaedrus]

So long as you accept that you can never get it exactly right. While you can't expect to buy at the bottom, there is no reason why you shouldn't do the best you can by at least waiting for the downtrend to end before buying.
Timing entries can be difficult sometimes, but I don't see that as justification for not even trying.

[777]

The buyers have started to return.

[Taijon]

Base Trader, where are you? I'm missing your informed commentary on the international thread and craft situation. It seems to me the future direction of the GPG share price is very much dependent on the forthcoming mid-year report. The sale of the Australian Wealth Management holding will come through in a significantly increased "basic profit" but its the Coats situation + to a lesser extent whatever success the company may have had with forex that will really effect the future direction of the company.

Base Trader please come back.

[Arbitrage]

It interests me why they have kept the Coats investment for this length of time. Why haven't they sold it off, even in pieces? It seems to be an ongoing drag on the company that pulls on the share price.

[Balance]

GPG has made only one good investment from what I can see in the last 5 years in Tower. Other investments have been bad like Capral, Turners Auction and Coats show no signs of performing. It used to be that investors automatically jump into stocks that GPG bought a shareholding in. After Capral and Turners Auction, GPG buying CSR has attracted little excitment.

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by Balance

GPG has made only one good investment from what I can see in the last 5 years in Tower. Other investments have been bad like Capral, Turners Auction and Coats show no signs of performing. It used to be that investors automatically jump into stocks that GPG bought a shareholding in. After Capral and Turners Auction, GPG buying CSR has attracted little excitment.

Didn't GPG get out of Turners before it went bad?

[Ttops]

Didn't GPG get out of Turners before it went bad?

Yep.

Then they bought it back from Fisher Funds who have been roundly criticised for not getting out of stocks that turn bad and it just went from bad to worse for GPG instead.

[warthog]

Unfortunately, GPG have been hit by a few real issues.

Turners is rubbish. Out and stay out.

Coats was buffeted (NPI) by larger forces - looks like Ron and the boys, while lining their own pockets with cheap shares - are out of their depth and maybe should have stuck to their knitting at a reasonable scale. Coats and Thistle have similarities.

Rubicon was a lost opportunity - they really should have made a better breakfast out of that, or got out. The people who are in Rubicon seem to be in business just to play games and spend other people's money. Good luck to them if they can find sources of cash to play with.

Tower has been somewhat of a success, but no killer deals really - just picking up a few shares here and there that other investors either couldn't be bothered with or didn't understand their entitlement to.

Tax changes by the fickle NZ government haven't helped. Typical rubbish policy made on the hoof without any thought to transition or the future of savings in NZ.

And of course the dollar. Well, Ron and co. are fine as they see things in pounds and dollars at the moment. Gibbs will be trying to figure out a way to keep pace with his mates - maybe, unlike GPG, he's been doing some hedging of his own?

In summary, GPG ran out of steam some time back and have never really got going again. The old hog thinks any magic that was once there has largely dissipated and all that's left are worn out old magicians outfits and a repertoire of old tricks that everybody knows all too well.

Disclosure: formerly a GPG holder.

[Rumplestiltskin]

Warthog, you don't mention Capral Aluminium ,a prime example of the magicians losing their touch. They failed to anticipate the downturn in the Australian housing market, the rapid rise in aluminium prices and the intense competition from China and seem to have no answers for this basket case. So much for the experts.

[clearasmud]

The Capral saga was less of a suprise after observing the Intellect (IHG) ballsup.

[warthog]

Good points Rumplestiltskin and clearasmud - thanks for the reminder!

[Contrarian]

Gidday
They have done well from
Tattersalls TTS, Premier Investments (exited early from Coles Myer at top dollar)AWM,TWR,TAL,MYO

[living2]

NZ First Capital Assessment of asset backing now $2.41 at todays exchange rates.Share price now at 20% discount to asset backing.Historically this is the maximum discount GPG trades at to asset backing before stiking higher over a few weeks.
If anybody wants to miss out on the next run ,SELL NOW.

[Arbitrage]

It is interesting watching this share price falling especially when most international analysts are positive eg http://investing.reuters.co.uk/stocks/quote.aspx?symbol=gpg
GPG traditionally play their cards close to their chests so I am wondering what is going on.

[Snow Leopard]

I am with Arbitrage on this one. Including the interesting bit. :)

[shasta]

Is Cujodog still in GPG, its his jinx, not the high dollar, or Capral, or Coates...

I see on the ASX they have been increasing there holdings in TAL & MMA from memory(correct me if i'm wrong!).

They are slowly using little bits of there cash holding

[Snow Leopard]

They also seem to be aiming to be a force in the future rationalisation of the Queensland sugar industry through MSF. There could be more.

[shasta]

PT

What do you make of GPG's recent buy into CSR?

They have a few areas of focus so it seems

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

PT

What do you make of GPG's recent buy into CSR?

They have a few areas of focus so it seems

Well at the moment I am a little puzzled.
CSR strikes me as an OK sort of company at a reasonable price that is unlikely to have any great upside to it. GPG currently have less than 7% so I don't know what the are playing at.
Just have to assume that they have some cunning plan that will become evident in the future.

[shasta]

Puzzles me too - why not either buy < 5% & stay off the radar, or just over 10% for the blocking stake.

They seem to be positioning themselves between 5 & 10% in a few Aussie stocks...

It's weird...

The Aussie stadium investment is in the same boat, out of left field!

I'm looking to re-enter after a while out of GPG, & just trying to make sense of what they are doing before committing to it.

Of course the chart needs improvement first...:D

[Hoop]

Arbitrage Quote .... It is interesting watching this share price falling especially when most international analysts are positive...
Looking on that site of Reuters the GPG graph is trendless and in a trading pattern. It seems that our NZ$ is the chief cause for the NZ GPG chart downtrend. Noting GPG price at 77pence is converted to NZ$1.96 bang on todays closing NZX price.

77p / .3922 = $1.96

It wasn't that long ago that our NZ$ was trading at 34p so using that calculation 77p / .34 = NZ$2.26

It's also interesting to see that GPG is willing to invest in Oz because the Ozzie dollar is nearly as strong as ours. This could mean either that CSR is underpriced/currency sensitive or GPG thinks that the down under dollars are not going to fall back in the medium term.

[Hoop]

A good day to update my previous post with the big drop in our NZ$.

Even with the big drop in stock prices in Britain GPG still trading at 77p

77p / .3817 = NZ$2.017

Any emotional general sell off this morning may see a little bargain emerge.

[777]

Well Hoop not a good day. Market down 1.8% and GPG down 3.6% and that is with a good drop in the NZ$. I hope it is only because of a lack of interest due to a lack of significant news from them.

[Phaedrus]

Chart Update. GPG has now fallen below a trailing stop that had been unbroken for over 4 years. In addition, it has now broken the support level set in April of last year. We shouldn't be too surprised at this - GPG was already in a downtrend and had been firing off Sell signals ever since it peaked in July of last year.
This chart provides an excellent example of why you shouldn't use a trailing stop as a standalone "Sell" indicator. See how far it lagged behind trend based indicators and the OBV sell signal. Just that much more profit given back to the market.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/GPG727.gif

[winner69]

GPG at $1.90 - can't be true - First NZ Capital says GPG is worth $2.41 - so whats going on

But then a chart never tells lies ... so it must be true

[Awamoa]

Rightly or wrongly I have applied Buffets statement of "be brave when others are afraid" today and bought more at $1.90.
With time it has to be a bargain.

[777]

Phaedrus this has happened on a day that a small but significant drop in world markets. The NZ market floats down as a normal reaction. Therefore a particular stock, in this case GPG, is reacting to overall market forces rather than any sentiment to the individual stock itself. So if the markets rise tonight and NZ follows on Monday and GPG also rises then what has the trailing stop level infringement told us.

[Phaedrus]

777, It's a bit hard to see on such a small-scale chart, but both the April support level and the Trailing Stop were broken over a week ago on 18/7/07.
What has the trailing stop level infringement told us? Well, firstly, that the downtrend is continuing. Secondly, it has told us that this is more than the "usual" GPG retracement. Thirdly, I think it tells us that in this case the Trailing Stop was too far from the price action to be really useful. If you ignored earlier signals and delayed selling until it was hit, you would have given a lot more of your profits back to the market than if you had used trend indicators to exit.

[777]

Thank you Phaedrus for your explanation.

[tim23]

Does your chart predict a new support level?

[BigBob]

quote: Does your chart predict a new support level?

There was some pretty serious resistance around 180 from late 2004 to late 2005, so that looks like the next important support level....

[Arbitrage]

Great charts but they only tell part of the story. They are only showing investor behaviour in retrospect. To rely solely on charts to predict the future is folly.

We shouldn't forget the fundamentals of this company. They have a top investment and research team with excellent leadership, a good portfolio of investments that are highly valued, and a lot of cash in hand.

As small investors we are always trying to guess what is going on inside these companies using a variety of tools. Balancing all these I tend to agree with the analysts who see GPG as a good investment.

[Phaedrus]

Arbitrage, I too see GPG as a good stock to hold - not right now though. I make no attempt to predict the future. Apart from being impossible, there is no need to. The chart is showing us the current trend - Down. I can't tell you how low GPG will go before reversing - no-one can. This doesn't matter in the slightest. All you have to do is be out of GPG at the moment, monitor the downtrend and watch for Buy signals. Just don't expect or hope to buy at the bottom. The idea is to wait until GPG has actually turned before buying back in.
Tim23, I'd like to dodge your question (see explanation above). BigBob's answer is as good as any, though.

[tim23]

Thanks - I like both the responses above.

[Hoop]

Update as of this morning(Sat)
75.5p / .3781 = NZ$1.99*

*....using Direct brokering(DB)figures

Using my alternative currency converter program it says NZ$1.95.

I have in my previous posts referenced the GBP off the DB site which I now suspect that fiqure may be a sell price not a buy price, therefore the previous figures maybe 5cents to generous.

[u]However, the argument as the moment is, is it good value?</u>Winner69 on an early post suggested that a broker has valued the NTA at $2.41** recently. Looking back at GPG 2006 interim report Net asset backing / share was referenced at 30th June 2006 NZ$2.22*. At a quick glance it may reflect the extent of undervaluation of GPG books as GPG growth rate seems to be about 10%-12%. (Calculations needed to access the extent of undervaluation)

* [u]NOTE</u>...NZjune2006$ is different to NZjuly2007$.
** that 2.41 NZ$ has different value to present NZ$

Converting back into NZ$ at that time of announcement, and using those historical NZ$ references [u]reflects inaccurate trends </u>in an overseas based company that operates in pound sterling (GBP)or any other foreign currency, so a better quick guide* is to use GBP to see how this company has been trending. An alternative of course is the much more time consuming action of converting all historial data from GBP (or NZthen$) to NZpresentday$ and show "as of now" snapshot.

*Note: [u]a quick guide only</u> as this company is very complicated to take a financial snapshot of.

[u]Using it's balance sheets</u>
31 Dec 2005 Net asset backing / share..66.87p
30 June 2006 ...........................73.24p
31 Dec 2006............................76.4 p
So at closing on Friday GPG 75.5p one would assume that it's shareprice is not undervalued...

From a medium term perpective(haven't the time to access more than 15 months..not worth the time with this stock at this precise moment)It seems that GPG shareprice follows its asset backing fairly closely (related to it's home headoffice currency, the GBP) A quick look at the 5 yr graph from Bloombury http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GPG:LN and relate it back to the 3 financial periods comfirms this.

A quick look at the British share price chart (and perhaps Phaedrus may or may not think this subject is worthy of expanding on any further) shows that since April 2006[u]**</u> GPG.UK stock trading behaviour has transformed from a long term rising trend to a trading pattern and it is now threatening to break that long term trend line if this trading pattern continues.
I mentioned in an earlier post that the NZ stock trades reflects the change in the NZ$ value very closely (arbitrage) and because of the GPG stock trading pattern in England together with our rising NZ$... the GPG.NZ graph (by Phaedrus) shows the downtrend in progress.

[u]**</u> conincidence??. At that time NZ broke news of its new impeding overseas investment tax changes.

[u]What does all this mean from now on?</u>

FA says it's has not been such a great stock in the last 15 months (underperformed). GPG valuations are rumoured to be undervalued on its books, but taking that into consideration, its combined holdings have underperformed in comparsion to the world markets indices.
TA in England shows GPG going nowwhere and in NZ it is damn right ugly, due mostly to our currency appreciation. On the surface $1.90 looks attractive, but not so with a little deeper analysis as shown. I will not speculate where the NZ$ is going...too hard basket.

[u]Conclusion</u>
There are better "fish to fry" out there than GPG at this precise moment. Hopefully Phaedrus will tell us using TA when to enter GPG again.


Disc: hold GPG. [:o)]

[zac]

Will be a good buying opportunity at these prices if $NZ slides lower.

[Hoop]

75.5p closing price on Friday (FTSE)
75.5p / .3760* = [u]NZ$2.008</u> as at 3.20pm Mon 30th July

Obtained a better more up to date currency converter from Bloomberg = NZ$2.008. So this converter gives the same answer as the DB site fiqure* I have used in earlier posts. http://www.bloomberg.com/invest/calculators/currency.html

[warthog]

Would be a better proposition at the bottom of the NZ$ slide ...

[tim23]

Quite right as long as you knew what that bottom was !? If you can please post it soon so I can know when to buy some more.

[777]

Warthog and tim23... if you are only looking at the exchange rate as affecting the price of GPG then now is the time to buy if you think the NZ$ is going to slide. Not after it bottoms. That is when it would be at it's highest value in NZ$.

That was what Zac was alluding to.

It has traded at 75p in London tonight. No indication of volume.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GPG:LN

[warthog]

In a fit of irrationality, the hog deferred to the MacDunk model of inverse proportionality, whereas the correct chart to pin on the wall would be consistent with the hog's earlier posts on the topic and, of course, your latest post 777.

So, to clarify, GPG would be a good proposition at the top of the NZ$ slide ...

[Phaedrus]

When to buy back into GPG? Here are 10 suggestions. None of these will get you in at the bottom, but any of them should get you in when/if/as the current downtrend weakens or ends.

(1) A break of the trendline.
(2) A break above the 5% trailing short stop.
(3) A break of the OBV trendline.
(4) Relative Momentum Index &gt; 50
(5) A positive QStick (above 0)
(6) A break above EMA72
(7) A break above VMA (20)
(8) A break above the Time series moving average.
(9) A positive Slow Stochastic Oscillator (&gt;50)
(10) An uptrend (Higher high after a higher low)

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/GPG731.gif

[tim23]

777 I was suggesting that picking bottoms is not really possible - unless the hog may be able to? Forsyth Barr are still including in their top 5 picks.

[living2]

Up 3 p on LSE on significant volume .Looks like sellers out of the market

[Arbitrage]

Closed at 70.5p

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/stocks/quote.aspx?symbol=gpg

= NZ$1.87

Closed in NZ yesterday at NZ$1.93

Still seen as a better than Hold by most punters, despite the charts...

[TwinkleToes]

struggles to rise with market. my guess is there is something wrong at Coates.

[tim23]

But before today it had bounced quite nicely off its lows from earlier in the week?

[TwinkleToes]

how was that correlated to the market movement? to me this stock has been behaving badly since before the bonus issue. it normally retraces up from bonus issue theoreticals but this time didn't. it has shown no evidence it has turned and even the drop in the dollar has not positively affected the price.

i guess my point is that it is not behaving correctly for a stock about to climb. i was a founder shareholder here and sold the lot in the 190's.

[tim23]

You will have done pretty good, sounds like you have got the pip with GPG?

[TwinkleToes]

You will have done pretty good, sounds like you have got the pip with GPG?
Yes, I've done well but have recently been surprised at the level of reward the managers pay themselves, and at their placing the big bet on Coates. Maybe the stock will move up again but it doesn't look in a hurry to do so.

[living2]

Up to .72 in London @ this exchange rate $1.95 NZ.Previous price drop due to someones liquidity event forcing them to sell GPG to take money out of the market?This has happened in previous market turmoil since GPG as a relatively liquid stock compared to other shares in NZ market?DISC: HOLD GPG

[Arbitrage]

Share price seems to have met strong resistance in the low 180's on the NZX. This company is still relatively cashed up which may soften the effects of falling equity prices in its holdings. But Coates must still be a drag.

[Hoop]

Closing price 70P in London
Equates to $NZ1.965 as at 9.40am today
Closing price $NZ1.81 in NZ and same in Oz.
It seems the British love GPG a lot more than us folks down under.

[Snapper]

Wouldn't you need decent volume for arbitraging? Volume on the LSE is pathetic.

[warthog]

Since we have an arbitrage contributing to this thread and since Hoop keeps saying that GPG is worth more on the London Stock Exchange than on the NZX, Has any one done any work on the possibilities of arbitrage of GPG?

Basically, you need a broker to buy in the UK, pay your stamp duty and brokerage on the purchase, and spend time working through Computershare getting the holding "shunted" down to Computershare in NZ. Then you can sell the shares in NZ.

GPG trades on relatively light volume in the UK. This old hog would be surprised if there's anything in it once you consider the time and risks involved.

[Arbitrage]

Good to see gpg getting on with the job.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070821/pdf/3142pk3mpd4kgh.pdf

[stevo1]

having been initial shareholder in gpg and a devotte i sold all but 20% of my holding some time ago for a number of reasons put foward previously on this forum.but the final straw for me was gpg missing the greatest mining boom in living memory and the potential for that boom to continue into the forseeable future

[Arbitrage]

An American investor is buying: http://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=1685888

[stevo1]

i am certainly pleased to see that for existing gpg shareholders.cornerstone shareholder?predator?takeover?

[Arbitrage]

not sure, but depth and price today is looking ok. Not performing up to expectations but still a hold/buy for most analysts.

[stevo1]

amazing a co like franklin rescources (NYSE ticker BEN)snaps up a 5% stake and sp still staggers along.

[Arbitrage]

Well they didn't really snap them up. They started buying in October 2003 and only reached the SSH threshhold in the past week or so. That is probably why the SP hasn't responded. However having them on board must be good news. I am sure their analysts wouldn't recommend buying into a company unless they saw a bright future. You never know we may see something happen soon.
You have to wonder how long the board will persist with Coats. I went back and re read the latest annual report and they were anticipating extracting some value from it sometime this year.

[Taijon]

While their Coats holding is by far the biggest holding in the GPG portfolio, is it their worst performer? We don't really know how Coats is performing but certainly Capral doesn't seem to be earning anything for them and the prospects don't seem that bright for any improvement.

There may well be other non-performers. All should be revealed in the half year report, but the AUW sale should result in a headline profit increase.

[Arbitrage]

When is the half yearly due?

[Taijon]

Last year it was announced on 30 August.

[Arbitrage]

SP is up to $1.85 on the LSE last night.

[whatsup]

When is the next updaste on Coats due??

[777]

Last years annual announcement was 30/8/06. So would expect it in the next 3-4 days.

[Arbitrage]

Any chance of an updated plot Phaedrus? I was wondering whether GPG has met any of your criteria for buying back in. My plot suggests it may have broken through the 30 day moving average but I am not sure whether this is a sufficient lift.

[Phaedrus]

Hi Arbitrage. Technically, GPG is still in a downtrend. None of the previously posted indicators have triggered Buy signals, apart from the Trailing short stop. The previous stop level of 5% proved to be too tight and I have redrawn it here as 6%, but am of the view that is still too low. When a single indicator fires well ahead of the rest like this, you have two choices. (1) Ignore it or (2) reduce the sensitivity of the "early" indicator. I suppose you have a third choice in that you could act on it, but it is generally regarded as imprudent to act on a single signal from an isolated indicator.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/GPG827.gif

[Arbitrage]

Excellent, cheers Phaedrus. I think you mentioned a resistance level earlier of around 1.80 which appeared to be correct. A purchase at that level about a week ago has turned a small profit but it will be now interesting to watch whether this continues after the upcoming expected 6 monthly report. Looking at the plots I won't be holdng my breath unless someone knows something we don't.

[Phaedrus]

Which they will, of course!
Just make sure that you resume breathing before hypoxia intervenes.

[whatsup]

GPG/Coats results out ,can someone please post ,results look reasonable.

[whatsup]

GPG/Coats results out ,can someone please post ,results look reasonable.

[whatsup]

GPG/Coats interium resultsout can some one post ,looks reasonable.

[Gryffyn]

Here you go:

GPG
29/08/2007
HALFYR

REL: 0837 HRS Guinness Peat Group Plc

HALFYR: GPG: GPG Interim Report 2007

RESULTS OF GUINNESS PEAT GROUP PLC ("GPG") FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED
30 JUNE 2007

GPG results for announcement to the Market for the six months ended 30 June
2007.

Please note the following key information:

- Revenue decreased by 23 million (3&#37;) over the corresponding period in 2006;

- Profit from ordinary activities after tax attributable to members increased
by
61 million (185%) over the corresponding period in 2006;

- Net profit for the period attributable to members increased by 61 million
(185%)
over the corresponding period in 2006;

- No interim dividend has been declared for the period (nil for the
corresponding
period in 2006; 0.91p paid during the period in respect of the year ended
31 December 2006, as adjusted for the 2007 Capitalisation Issue).

J R Russell
Company Secretary
29 August 2007

Chairman's Statement

A relatively uneventful 6 months for GPG on the surface but plenty of
planning and analysis, directed, as always, to the continuing enhancement of
net asset value.

The main component of the GBP 94 million profit for the period was the sale
of Australian Wealth Management shares, albeit at a lesser value than their
31 December level, but it was considered timely to exit, with GPG having
completed its role in the creation of a credible independent funds management
company.

There were other useful contributions from Coats, Nationwide Accident Repair
Services and Green's General Foods.

Coats has achieved the progress which we hoped and anticipated at this stage
with the exception of the unwelcome downturn in key crafts markets. However,
Coats' crafts division is a structurally mature, well established business
and future expectations are firmly based on a return to better conditions.
Overall, Coats should record further momentum for the full year and beyond,
as it gradually moves from transition to an acceptable return on capital
invested.

A detailed analysis of Coats' half yearly results is available at
www.coats.com or a printed copy can be obtained on request at any of GPG's
offices.

To the extent Coats has met expectations, Capral Aluminium has not. That is
doubly disappointing for GPG because we believe the company has done
everything right in terms of modernisation of manufacturing processes,
upgraded customer service and streamlined distribution channels. However, the
full impact of a high aluminium price, Chinese imports and a depressed NSW
housing market is a powerful combination to overcome. GPG is working with the
company to devise potential solutions until market conditions ultimately
improve.

The strength of the NZ$ has had some adverse effect on the half year accounts
due to the higher level of eventual Capital Note repayments. But that is not
all bad because of the corresponding increase in the value of New Zealand
assets which is not directly reflected in the published accounts.

GPG's financial position continues to be very sound with strong liquidity as
shown in the simplified balance sheet below:

[Gryffyn]

And some more:

SIMPLIFIED BALANCE SHEET AT 30 JUNE 2007
GBPm
Cash at Bank 239
Debtors 21
Coats Group 252
Canberra Investment Corp 19
Turners & Growers 50
Capral 60
Tower Australia 77
Tower NZ 34
Rattoon 39
Green's General Foods 16
Share portfolio 443
Total Assets 1,250
Creditors (76)
Note issues (215)
Shareholders' Funds GBP 959

An interesting second half is unfolding with increased market volatility and
the probability of a more severe correction to "blue sky" values in the
foreseeable future. Nevertheless, the Board looks forward to presenting a
positive result for the full year to 31 December 2007.

Ron Brierley
CHAIRMAN
29 August 2007

Consolidated Income Statement
Unaudited
Unaudited 6 months to
Audited
6 months to 30 June Year to
30 June 2006 31 December
2007 Restated ** 2006
GBPm GBPm GBPm

Continuing Operations
Revenue 657 680 1,356

Cost of sales (454) (467) (956)

Gross profit 203 213 400

Profit on disposal of investments and other net investment income 90
18 45

Distribution costs (79) (88) (177)
Administrative expenses (116) (85) (196)

Operating profit 98 58 72

Share of loss of joint ventures (1) - -

Share of profit/(loss) of associated undertakings 7 2
(1)

Profit on sale of businesses - continuing operations 25 -
5

Finance costs (19) (20) (40)

Profit before taxation from continuing operations 110 40
36

Tax on profit from continuing operations (18) (10)
(12)

Profit for the period from continuing operations 92 30
24

Discontinued Operations
Gain on discontinued operations - 1 10

Profit for the period 92 31 34

Attributable to:
EQUITY SHAREHOLDERS OF THE COMPANY 94 33 36
Minority interests (2) (2) (2)
92 31 34

Earnings per Ordinary Share from continuing and discontinued operations:
Basic (pence) 7.46p 2.67p 2.89p

Earnings per Ordinary Share from continuing operations:

Basic (pence) 7.44p 2.62p 2.08p

** Restated to reflect a change in accounting policy - see note 1b.

Consolidated Balance Sheet
Unaudited

Unaudited 30 June
Audited
30 June 2006 31
December
2007 Restated **
2006
GBPm GBPm GBPm
NON-CURRENT ASSETS
Intangible assets 199 204 198
Property, plant and equipment 402 388 391
Investments in associates 141 23 122
Investments in joint ventures 34 24 17
Fixed asset investments 431 410 423
Deferred tax assets 7 5 6
Pension surpluses 38 36 32
Trade and other receivables 18 15 18
1,270 1,105 1,207

CURRENT ASSETS
Inventories 238 254 216
Trade and other receivables 295 302 238
Current asset investments 18 27 19
Derivative financial instruments 7 3
3
Cash and cash equivalents 280 244 254
838 830 730

Non-current assets classified as held for sale 2 3
3

TOTAL ASSETS 2,110 1,938 1,940

CURRENT LIABILITIES
Trade and other payables 287 260 254
Current tax liabilities 9 6 9
Capital notes - 82 -
Other borrowings 97 128 123
Provisions 89 91 87
482 567 473

NET CURRENT ASSETS 356 263 257

NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES
Trade and other payables 12 20 21
Deferred tax liabilities 35 16 18
Capital notes 215 70 201
Other borrowings 212 198 150
Retirement benefit obligations:
Funded schemes 14 29 14
Unfunded schemes 55 65 58
Provisions 32 41 37
575 439 499

TOTAL LIABILITIES 1,057 1,006 972

NET ASSETS 1,053 932 968

Consolidated Balance Sheet
Unaudited

Unaudited 30 June
Audited
30 June 2006 31
December
2007 Restated
2006
GBPm GBPm GBPm
EQUITY
Share capital 63 57 57
Share premium account 61 60 61
Translation reserve (7) (16) (24)
Unrealised gains reserve 162 154 188
Other reserves 298 305 303
Retained earnings 382 278 291
EQUITY SHAREHOLDERS' FUNDS 959 838 876
Minority interests 94 94 92
TOTAL EQUITY 1,053 932 968

Net asset backing per share*
Pence 75.31 66.58 69.49
Australian cents 178.10 165.76
172.55
New Zealand cents 195.59 201.84
192.88

The net asset backing per share for June 2006 and December 2006 has
been adjusted for the 2007 Capitalisation Issue.
Restated to reflect a change in accounting policy - see note 1b.

Blake Nixon, Director Approved by the Board on 28 August
2007

Consolidated Statement of Recognised Income and Expense

Unaudited Unaudited Audited
6 months to 6 months to Year to
30 June 30 June 31 December
2007 2006 2006
Restated **
GBPm GBPm GBPm

Gains on revaluation of fixed asset investments 51 64
109
Gains/(losses) on cash flow hedges 1 3 (2)
Exchange differences on translation of foreign operations 17
(28) (36)
Actuarial gains on defined benefit pension schemes - -
9
Net income recognised directly in equity 69 39
80

Transfers
Transferred to profit or loss on sale of fixed asset investments (78)
3 (7)
Transferred to profit or loss on sale of businesses 1 -
-
Transferred to profit or loss on cash flow hedges (1) (1)
1
Profit for the period 92 31 34

Total recognised income and expense for the period 83 72
108

Attributable to:
EQUITY SHAREHOLDERS OF THE COMPANY 85 74 110
Minority interests (2) (2) (2)

83 72 108

Restated to reflect a change in accounting policy - see note 1b.

Reconciliation of Consolidated Movements in Equity Shareholders' Funds

6 months ended 30 June 2007

Share Unrealised

Share premium Translation gains Other
Retained
capital account reserve reserve reserves
earnings Total
GBPm GBPm GBPm GBPm GBPm GBPm GBPm
Balance as at 1 January 2007 57 61 (24) 188 303 291
876

Total recognised income and expense for the period - - 17
(26) - 94 85
Dividends (note 9) - - - - - (11)
(11)
Capitalisation issue of shares 6 - - - (6)
- -
Scrip dividend alternative - - - - -
8 8
Share based payments - - - - 1 -
1

Balance as at 30 June 2007 63 61 (7) 162 298
382 959

Consolidated Cash Flow Statement

Unaudited Unaudited Audited
6 months to 6 months to Year to
30 June 30 June 31 December
2007 2006 2006
GBPm GBPm GBPm
Cash inflow/(outflow) from operating activities

Net cash inflow/(outflow) from operating activities 60 (4)
151
Interest paid (24) (23) (42)
Taxation paid (9) (9) (18)
Net cash generated by/(absorbed in) operating activities 27
(36) 91

Cash outflow from investing activities
Dividends received from associates and joint ventures 5 4
5
Capital expenditure and financial investment (63) (11)
(82)
Acquisitions and disposals (12) 2 (30)
Net cash absorbed in investing activities (70) (5)
(107)

Cash inflow from financing activities
Issue of ordinary shares 1 48 48
Equity dividends paid to Company's shareholders (4) (4)
(4)
Dividends paid to minority interests (2) (2) (4)
Increase in debt 35 23 9
Net cash generated by financing activities 30 65
49

Net (decrease)/increase in cash and cash equivalents (13) 24
33
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of the period 241 238
238
Exchange gains/(losses) on cash and cash equivalents 39 (29)
(30)
Cash and cash equivalents at end of the period 267 233
241

NOTES TO THE FINANCIAL INFORMATION

1a. The interim financial information has been prepared in accordance
with the recognition and measurement principles of applicable International
Financial Reporting Standards (IFRSs) as adopted by the Group, and comply
with the disclosure requirements of the Listing Rules of the UK Financial
Services Authority and the Listing Rules of the Australian Securities
Exchange. The accounting policies adopted have been consistently applied to
all periods presented, other than as set out in 1b. below.

1b. The income statement for the six months ended 30 June 2006 has been
restated to reflect emerging best practice in respect of the treatment of
deferred tax assets recognised following the recognition on implementation of
IFRS of unrealised gains and losses on non-current investments. Deferred tax
assets recognised were previously offset against deferred tax liabilities in
the unrealised gains reserve, but are now separately recognised through the
income statement. The impact of this restatement is an increase in retained
earnings of GBP30 million at 30 June 2006 and a corresponding decrease in the
unrealised gains reserve of GBP 30 million at that date, but has no impact on
either profit for the six months ended 30 June 2006 or shareholders' funds at
that date.

2. The figures for the year ended 31 December 2006 do not constitute
statutory accounts for that year but have been extracted from the statutory
accounts, which have been filed with the Registrar of Companies. The auditors
reported on those accounts and that report was unqualified and did not
contain statements under Section 237(2) or (3) of the Companies Act 1985. The
financial information for the six months ended 30 June 2007 has been reviewed
- see attached Independent Review Report - but has not been audited. The
financial information for the equivalent period in 2006 was similarly
reviewed but not audited.

3. Group foreign exchange movements - during the six months to 30 June
2007, GPG recognised in operating profit GBP 11 million of net foreign
exchange losses compared to GBP 20 million of net foreign exchange gains in
the six months to
30 June 2006 (GBP 3 million net gains in the year to 31 December 2006).

4. Tax on profit from continuing operations
30 June 30 June 31 December
2007 2006 2006
GBPm GBPm GBPm
UK Corporation tax at 30&#37; - (3) -
Overseas tax (10) (6) (21)
(10) (9) (21)
Deferred tax (8) (1) 9
(18) (10) (12)

5. The Group's significant joint venture and associate entities were as
follows:
30 June 30 June 31 December
2007 2006 2006

Green's General Foods Pty Ltd 72.5% na na
Australian Country Spinners Ltd 50.0% 50.0% 50.0%
Rattoon Holdings Ltd 44.4% 20.2% 44.8%
The Maryborough Sugar Factory Ltd 27.3% 22.4% 24.3%
Tower Australia Group Ltd 24.4% na 23.9%
Autologic Holdings plc 21.9% na na
Nationwide Accident Repair Services plc na 50.0% 31.3%
Green's Foods Ltd na 37.4% 37.6%

CPI Group Ltd na 22.9% na

Significant contributions to profit for the period from joint venture
and associate entities were:
30 June 30 June 31 December
2007 2006 2006
GBPm GBPm GBPm
Rattoon Holdings Ltd 3 - -
Tower Australia Group Ltd 3 - -
Nationwide Accident Repair Services plc 1 2 2
Green's General Foods Pty Ltd (2) - -
Australian Country Spinners Ltd - (2) (2)
Green's Foods Ltd - - (5)

NOTES TO THE FINANCIAL INFORMATION - continued

6. Earnings per share - The calculation of earnings per Ordinary share
is based on profit after taxation attributable to shareholders and the
weighted average number of 1,264,378,670 Ordinary shares in issue during the
six months ended 30 June 2007. The comparatives for the six months to 30 June
2006 and the year to 31 December 2006 have been adjusted for the
Capitalisation Issue which took place in June 2007. Calculations of earnings
per share are based on results to the nearest GBP'000s.

7. The net tangible assets per share at 30 June 2007 were 67.04p (30
June 2006: 57.88p, 31 December 2006: 61.03p).

8. Changes in the issued share capital during the six months to 30 June
2007 comprise the following:
GBP000
At 1 January 2007 57,310
Employee options exercised 97
Scrip dividend alternative shares issued (18 May 2007) 441
Capitalisation Issue (22 June 2007) 5,780
At 30 June 2007 63,628

9. Dividends - The directors have not recommended the payment of an
interim dividend (6 months to 30 June 2006 Nil). An interim dividend of 0.91p
per share, adjusted for the 2007 Capitalisation Issue, was paid during the
period in respect of the year ended 31 December 2006. A final dividend of
0.91p per share, adjusted for the 2006 Capitalisation Issue, was paid during
the six months ended 30 June 2006 in respect of the year ended 31 December
2005.

10. Directors - The following persons were directors of GPG during the
whole of the period and up to the date of this report:
Sir Ron Brierley
G J Cureton
A I Gibbs
B A Nixon
Dr G H Weiss

11. Directors' Report - The Chairman's Statement appearing in the Interim
Results and signed by Sir Ron Brierley provides a review of the operations of
the Group for the six months ended 30 June 2007.

12. Director's Declaration - In accordance with a resolution of the
directors of Guinness Peat Group plc I state that:
in the opinion of the Directors:
a. the Interim Results of the consolidated group:
(i) give a true and fair view of the financial position
as at 30 June 2007 and the performance of the consolidated group for the
half-year ended on that date; and
(ii) comply with the recognition and measurement
principles of applicable International Financial Reporting Standards as
adopted by the Group; and
b. there are reasonable grounds to believe the Company will be
able to pay its debts as and when they become due and payable.

13. Publication - This statement is being sent to shareholders and copies
will be available at the registered office of the Company, First Floor, Times
Place, 45 Pall Mall, London SW1Y 5GP. A copy will also be displayed on the
Company's website at www.gpgplc.com.

On behalf of the Board
B A Nixon
Director
29 August 2007

UNITED KINGDOM
First Floor, Times Place, 45 Pall Mall, London SW1Y 5GP Tel: 020 7484 3370
Fax: 020 7925 0700

AUSTRALIA
c/o Registries Ltd
PO Box R67, Royal Exchange, Sydney NSW 1224, Australia Tel: 02 9290 9600
Fax: 02 9279 0664

NEW ZEALAND
c/o Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1020, New Zealand Tel: 09 488 8700 Fax:
09 488 8787
Registered in England No. 103548

I

[Arbitrage]

The NZ Herald reports:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10460503

[Arbitrage]

Having partly digested the 6 monthly's looks like gpg could be out of the woods, except for the Capral investment. Even Coats seems to be adding value so that is a plus. The market is now responding accordingly.

[Gryffyn]

Indeed it is :-) Will be interesting to see what they do with their considerable war chest given the "credit squeeze" etc.

[living2]

Hopefully not jinxing it but Gpg breaking through resistance levels???

[living2]

NZ First Capital Assessment of asset backing now $2.41 at todays exchange rates.Share price now at 20% discount to asset backing.Historically this is the maximum discount GPG trades at to asset backing before stiking higher over a few weeks.
If anybody wants to miss out on the next run ,SELL NOW.

He He SO who sold???

[Sideshow Bob]

Is Basetrader still out there?? I enjoy his insight posts on GPG......

[macduffy]

Awesome result from GPG!!

Brilliant.

$3 here we come!!!
A big chunk of this result was profit on the sale of Aust Wealth Management. Best aspect was reassurance re Coats.

[Lizard]

Looks like cujodog has finally sold out again... :D

[shasta]

Looks like cujodog has finally sold out again... :D

Forget Phaedrus & his charts, Cujodog selling = a strong buy :D

[living2]

A big chunk of this result was profit on the sale of Aust Wealth Management. Best aspect was reassurance re Coats.

And a lot of cash for another big play!!!!

[Lizard]

I'm confused. Is cujodog a broker?

Might be a wild guess, but I think you know cujodog better than we do...:cool:

[shasta]

I'm confused. Is cujodog a broker?


Cujodog was either a pi$$ take, or a newbie that had a habit of buying stocks that always went down afterwards, hence the "cujodog effect".

After he panicked & sold out his stocks went back up!

Forget all you have ever learnt about RSI, OBV, Whitecandles, charts, fundamentals, broker valuations.

If cujodog sells = a buy, if cujodog buys...get the drift?

Most of his posts were on the old forum...

Lizard & i just having a wee chuckle at his expense...

All in good jest of course!

[Taijon]

19 April 2007 announcement from GPG: Sale of Stake in Australian Wealth Management Limited ("AWM")

"Guinness Peat Group plc ("GPG") announces that it sold yesterday its entire
19.4% stake in ASX-listed company, Australian Wealth Management Limited (ASX
code : AUW). The sale was undertaken via an institutional placement at a
price of A$2.435 (?1.02) per share and underwritten by UBS AG. The sale
realised a profit of approximately A$172 million (?71.8 million)."

The contribution from the AWM sale to this half year's profit was enormous - without it today's headline would not have been about a 185% increase in profit. It would have been a loss compared to last year. I acknowledge GPG is in the business of realising profits from the sale of assets but is the quality of the current GPG assets that great?

Coats is doing only ok, but Capral has cost GPG a bundle in new investment and is still losing money (maybe a couple more years before it comes right). TAL and Tower NZ share prices, and most of the other listed companies they still hold, have lost ground considerably since the April sale of AWM while the shareprice of AWM today ($A 2.42) is almost identical to the price GPG got when they sold ($A 2.435). AWM would seem to have been one of their best performing assets and perhaps it was sold to get today's media headline!!.

More recently, in the last couple of weeks GPG has been adding to current holdings of various shares at these lower share prices which I agree is their core business. Lets hope when these assets are eventually sold handsome profits are realised.

According to today's half year announcement Net Asset Backing per share at 30 June 2007 was $NZ 195.59, down from an adjusted $NZ 201.84 a year earlier. I don't have any figures but I would guess the Net Asset Backing per share would be lower than this today.

I can't see why the GPG share price should jump up from where it currently is in a hurry - it traditionally trades at a 10%+ discount to net asset backing. Tell me why it should go up?

[living2]

London:Bid .86 p,U R not convinced?????

[Paddy]

London:Bid .86 p,U R not convinced?????

Where do you get that from? I'm showing 68.75p through Yahoo Finance

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GPG.L

[living2]

Findata:Finance Yahoo not updated prices??

[777]

Closed at 69p.

Not too different to yesterdays price here. Which begs the question. Does the UK follow NZ or vice versa. The average English person would never have heard of GPG.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GPG:LN

[Arbitrage]

The buyers are lining up this morning.

[living2]

Closed at 69p.

Not too different to yesterdays price here. Which begs the question. Does the UK follow NZ or vice versa. The average English person would never have heard of GPG.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GPG:LN

The average english person ,probably not,Franklin definately yes

[Dr_Who]

Is GPG gonna do a capital return to shareholders this time round?

[macduffy]

Is GPG gonna do a capital return to shareholders this time round?

Not their style.

[Toddy]

Very impressive performance today. Really should be back at $2.20 - $2.30 shortly where it belongs.

I'm not too sure about that. I don't think that the market can work out what the Coates business is all about. From the outside it looks like a large capital outlay for little return. They are not even returning the cost of capital.

[warthog]

I'm happy to have 80% of my nest egg in this company. Awesome returns every year.:D

In what form? Shareprice last year NZ$2.45+ - it has lost 15-20% since then. Adjusting for the 1:10 it is still down 5-15%. The token dividend is paltry. Unless you recently bought in, the returns don't look too awesome to the hog.

Disc: previously held; zero currently.

[macduffy]

80&#37; in GPG?
I'm a believer in St Ron too, but how do you sleep at night?

Disc: Hold GPG as one of ~20 Aust/NZ stocks.

[Toddy]

Internode

Thats great. I do like the way that GPG does business. However, as stated above, I am too uncomfortable with the Coates business to invest. My number one rule is, if I cannot understand the business then I stay well clear.

Enlighten me.......

[Toddy]

Thanks for the indepth analytical response as to why the Coates business is low risk and returning investors 20% p.a.

This one will come back to bite GPG.

[stevo1]

the part of the 20% i dont understand is a drop from a high $2.65 aug 2006 to $1.78 aug2007.

[stevieb]

According to today's half year announcement Net Asset Backing per share at 30 June 2007 was $NZ 195.59, down from an adjusted $NZ 201.84 a year earlier. I don't have any figures but I would guess the Net Asset Backing per share would be lower than this today.

The asset backing when quoted in pounds or AUD is considerably more attractive, seems to me this figure is all about the exchange rate (with most of the assets in GBP or AUD). We all know the NZD was strong last year but it would be a brave man who suggested this would happen again. Even in the time since the 30 Jun the GBP exchange rate has changed from about .385 to .35 (i.e. those GBP denominated assets are worth ~ 10% more). Oh and lets not forget, you have 10% more shares today than a year ago.

[Dr_Who]

the part of the 20% i dont understand is a drop from a high $2.65 aug 2006 to $1.78 aug2007.


Maybe the recent market correct has some investors cashing up and/or covering their leveraged positions? A volitile market is good for those traders with large steel balls.

[Lizard]

GPG up another 2 cents today. This is awesome.:)

So internode reverts to cujo... now that's a new trick!

[winner69]

So internode reverts to cujo... now that's a new trick!

Well spotted Lizard ...... bit of mystery eh .... better watch it, you might morph into macdunk

[Lizard]

Forget morphing into MacDunk - lets just swap lives for a week... great new reality TV show!:p:D

[Arbitrage]

Internode

Thats great. I do like the way that GPG does business. However, as stated above, I am too uncomfortable with the Coates business to invest. My number one rule is, if I cannot understand the business then I stay well clear.

Enlighten me.......

What don't you understand about Coats?

[living2]

UBS estimated GPG NAV at $2.54 on implied EBITA multiple for Coates of 7.7,implied EBITA multiple 5.4

[Gryffyn]

up another 4 cents to $2.12!!

This is getting ridiculous. I am making bucket loads of money now!!!

Long term GPGers use wheel barrows

[Dr_Who]

up another 4 cents to $2.12!!

This is getting ridiculous. I am making bucket loads of money now!!!

LOL.. you and me bother brother! I dont know why I bought into it in the first place. Yes, I recall now, it was my broker that put me into it.

[living2]

First NZ Capital valuation 3-9-07 $2.61

[Sideshow Bob]

First NZ Capital valuation 3-9-07 $2.61

Here's the link: http://www.vond.co.nz/GPG/GPG070903.pdf

[Glendoonie]

up another 4 cents to $2.12!!

This is getting ridiculous. I am making bucket loads of money now!!!

They'll be back. Dollars to donuts. Keep the faith, sweetie.

[Arbitrage]

Hmmm, you don't actually make money until you sell. Anyway, the share price seems to be partially driven by what happens to the ftse. Have a play with the graphical tool at:

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/en-gb/pricesnews/prices/System/DetailedPrices.htm?sym=GB0032163650GBGBXSEAQ321636 5GPG#PriceChart

and you will see what i mean.

GPG's fundamentals haven't changed so don't panic.

[Shooter]

Why such a big drop today?

[ScrappyO]

Why such a big drop today?

Exchange Rate... GPG aren't very good at currency conversions.

[Shooter]

Exchange Rate... GPG aren't very good at currency conversions. Yeah, but 4% seems a bit much (on biggish volume too).

[777]

Only news is that they have sold out of NZX. 871,000 shares at $9.50 which is stated in the Herald as a healthy profit. Transaction is only $8.27 million. Page C3 in todays herald.

[777]

Reaction to this news item I guess.




YKK, Coats, William Prym Fined by EU for Price-Fixing (Update2)
By Matthew Newman and Stephanie Bodoni

Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- YKK Corp., Coats Holdings Plc and William Prym GmbH were among seven companies and groups fined 328.6 million euros ($459 million) by European Union regulators for fixing the price of fasteners such as zippers, rivets and snaps.

The European Commission, the EU's antitrust agency in Brussels, today fined YKK 150 million euros, Coats 122 million euros and William Prym 40.5 million euros. The companies were involved in four cartels involving fasteners and related machinery, one of which ran for more than 21 years, the EU said.

It is ``unacceptable'' that the companies' management knew that price collusion and market sharing were illegal and yet ``decided to continue anyway,'' Neelie Kroes, the EU's competition commissioner, said in a statement today.

Kroes has made combating cartels a priority in her five-year term that started in November 2004. She has levied more than 2.3 billion euros in fines in 2007.

The zipper market is worth about 400 million euros a year and about 200 million euros for other metal fasteners, the EU said. Other companies and associations penalized for the cartel are Scovill Group, A. Raymond Sarl, Berning & Soehne GmbH and the industry association Fachverband Verbindungs & Befestigungstechnik, or VBT.

High Fines

The fines are ``relatively high because of the large size of some of the companies involved, the fact that there were four different cartels and the duration of these cartels,'' said Jonathan Todd, a commission spokesman.

Tokyo-based YKK said in a statement today it had ``cooperated fully'' with the commission during its probes of the cartel. Stolberg, Germany-based Prym also said it had cooperated with the regulator and said the fine was therefore ``disproportionate.''

``The dimensions of the fine are unique in the history of the European Union and are not comparable to any decisions taken in similar cases so far,'' Andreas Engelhardt, Prym's chief executive officer, said in a statement.

Both companies said they will decide on their next steps once they have seen the EU decision. They could then appeal to the Luxembourg-based European Court of First Instance, the main court of appeal for EU antitrust decisions.

Blake Nixon, a spokesman at Guinness Peat Group Plc, the owner of Uxbridge, England-based Coats, wasn't immediately available to comment.

Lower Fines

The EU regulator began the probe on its own initiative after being tipped off. Inspectors conducted surprise visits in November 2001, prompting Prym, Coats and YKK to cooperate with the commission in return for a cut in fines.

It's the latest in a series of fines against companies in the market. In September 2005, the regulator levied 43.5 million euros in penalties against Coats and other makers of industrial thread for operating a price-fixing cartel. In 2004, the EU fined three companies, including Coats and Prym, 60 million euros for operating a cartel in the needle market.

The Court of First Instance, the EU's second-highest court, earlier this month reduced the 2004 fines against the companies to 20 million euros for Coats and 27 million euros for Prym.

Under EU rules, the commission can fine companies accused of abusing their market power as much as 10 percent of their annual sales. In past cases it has opted for about 2 percent to 3 percent of sales.

To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Newman in Brussels at mnewman6@bloomberg.net ; Stephanie Bodoni in Luxembourg at sbodoni@bloomberg.net

[Toddy]

777

This cannot be correct as the amounts involved are material and would require GPG to disclose this information to the market as soon as they became aware of it. To date I have seen no such disclosure.

[777]

Toddy I got it from the following URL

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conews&tkr=GPG:LN

[777]

There is now a trading halt on GPG.

GPG
20/09/2007
HALT

REL: 1208 HRS Guinness Peat Group Plc

HALT: GPG: GPG Trading Halt of Securities

NZX Regulation Announcement
Guinness Peat Group Plc (GPG)
Trading Halt of Securities

NZX Regulation advises that Guinness Peat Group Plc (GPG) securities have
been placed in a trading halt effective immediately pending an expected
material announcement by the company. The trading halt will remain in place
until the release of the announcement.

[777]

I think some serious questions need to asked why this information was not announced before the market opened this morning.

[JBear]

GPG are still trading in Australia. Last at A$1.68 down 2c

[Toddy]

777

Atleast you had a chance to sell out if you had any GPG. This is going to set a negative tone for this stock for the rest of the year.

For me the big question mark has always been around Coats. As previously disclosed, I could never work out a fair valuation for this business. Its just too risky and if GPG could have, they would have sold Coats a long time ago.


The disclosure will go along the lines that everything is alright and that they are going to try to fight the ruling in a higher court. However, it will suck up massive amounts of money heading to court in Europe. And they would still be odds on to lose.

[Gryffyn]

I was under the impression that provisions had already been made for the fines.

[777]

Toddy I didn't sell as I went looking for the news after the drop occurred. What concerns me is the news was timed at 0935 EDT. By my calculation that was about 0135 NZ time today, before the market opened. So why has it taken so long to lodged with the NZX. Also the halt went on at 1208 today and here it is some 30 minutes later and no more information. Five minutes is all it should take to announce and then put an opening time for trading. Interestingly they are still trading in Australia while all this is going on.

[redzone]

this will destroy gpgs share price going forward...I wonder why they needed that war chest they were talking about a few months ago...well hello

[Dr_Who]

The current valuation on GPG is above $2.40, so it is already trading at a significant discount.

[Hoop]

I will put up another possibly.... at risk of being totally wrong.

The trading halt may have nothing to do with Coates. Note the wording..

.....NZX Regulation advises that Guinness Peat Group Plc (GPG) securities have been placed in a trading halt effective immediately pending an expected material announcement by the company. The trading halt will remain in place until the release of the announcement...


The last trading Halt was in April 2006 when they did a book build by issuing another 51M shares at $2.60. Perhaps they may do this again.


Could be they may have a big acquisition in their sights or they need a bigger war chest to take advantage of the market uncertainties and possible bargains that may emerge.

[Toddy]

Hoop

122m Euro's cash hit to the bottom line is very material.

Just ask GPG shareholders.

Then again, you may be right, they may need another 'book build' to pay for the fine.

[Tanger]

The expanded disclsoure on the ASX notes that the trading halt is to remain in place until the earlier of the Company releasing an announcement in relation to Coats, or the commencement of trading on Monday 24th September.

[redzone]

my question of the board and the NZX is if this has been known about for months how come we havent heard about it before now ...isnt this so NZX....Investing in the NZX is like sleeping in a snake pit...big hit to the bottom line ...you bet it is...

[Toddy]

Redzone

I bet you that the NZX are also licking their lips. I'm sure that they could impose a fine of their own for breach of the NZX disclosure rules.

The NZ Herald article title makes it sound 'super' material. The word 'yesterday' also sticks in the mind.


Trading halt on GPG shares after Coats fined $230 million
Updated 1:43PM Thursday September 20, 2007
By Adam Bennett


Guinness Peat Group's shares have been placed in a trading halt after its subsidiary Coats Group was yesterday fined US$169 million ($230 million) for involvement in worldwide price-fixing cartels.

Coats accounts for 30 to 40 per cent of Sir Ron Brierley's investment company GPG's asset base by value. GPG's shares are held by thousands of small New Zealand investors.

[Arbitrage]

In the interim report for Coats this year Gary Weiss states:

"European Commission Investigation
There have been no significant developments in the European Commission investigation since the year end.
During the second half, the outcome of the Commission’s investigation into European fasteners – the last outstanding part of the general investigation into thread and haberdashery markets which began in 2001 – should be announced. In addition, the Court of First Instance is also expected to rule on Coats’ appeal against the fine levied in 2004 in respect of needles. As stated in previous reports, it is believed that any anticipated eventual
payment of fines is adequately covered by existing provisions."

In the accounts "Provisions" are US$172.7 million. Fine is US$169 million.

[Dr_Who]

Opportunity to pick up some cheap shares?

[Arbitrage]

I reckon, they have been identified as one of Phaedrus's picks.

[Arbitrage]

Fine is less than budgetted so they are US$3.7 million ahead.

[gulf]

nice to see someone posting the facts .

[Dr_Who]

In the interim report for Coats this year Gary Weiss states:

"European Commission Investigation
There have been no significant developments in the European Commission investigation since the year end.
During the second half, the outcome of the Commission’s investigation into European fasteners – the last outstanding part of the general investigation into thread and haberdashery markets which began in 2001 – should be announced. In addition, the Court of First Instance is also expected to rule on Coats’ appeal against the fine levied in 2004 in respect of needles. As stated in previous reports, it is believed that any anticipated eventual
payment of fines is adequately covered by existing provisions."

In the accounts "Provisions" are US$172.7 million. Fine is US$169 million.


Great post Arbitrage! Just gave you a good rep point. :):)

[Toddy]

nice to see someone posting the facts .

Yep, fact, USD 169 million cash just walked out of the door. Provision or not, there will be an additional cost of carry (funding cost) on USD 169m........ or is everyone going to tell me that GPG has the cash sitting in the bank already to go.

[Arbitrage]

No they only have US$44.3 cash or cash equivalents. But since a provision has been made in what looks like strong accounts, they can use someone elses money to pay the bill and it shouldn't change the bottom line.

[777]

I still cannot understand that if this fine is the reason for the halt, then why has it not been officially announced by GPG. It can't be that hard. Sure it is 4 am in the morning in the UK but this is significant enough to have even Ron to be out of bed for.

Maybe Hoop is right, it is possibly something else.

[ekman]

Guinness Peat Group PLC
YKK, Coats, William Prym Fined by EU for Price-Fixing (Update2)

By Matthew Newman and Stephanie Bodoni

Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- YKK Corp., Coats Holdings Plc and William Prym GmbH were among seven companies and groups fined 328.6 million euros ($459 million) by European Union regulators for fixing the price of fasteners such as zippers, rivets and snaps.

The European Commission, the EU's antitrust agency in Brussels, today fined YKK 150 million euros, Coats 122 million euros and William Prym 40.5 million euros. The companies were involved in four cartels involving fasteners and related machinery, one of which ran for more than 21 years, the EU said.

It is ``unacceptable'' that the companies' management knew that price collusion and market sharing were illegal and yet ``decided to continue anyway,'' Neelie Kroes, the EU's competition commissioner, said in a statement today.

Kroes has made combating cartels a priority in her five-year term that started in November 2004. She has levied more than 2.3 billion euros in fines in 2007.

The zipper market is worth about 400 million euros a year and about 200 million euros for other metal fasteners, the EU said. Other companies and associations penalized for the cartel are Scovill Group, A. Raymond Sarl, Berning & Soehne GmbH and the industry association Fachverband Verbindungs & Befestigungstechnik, or VBT.

High Fines

The fines are ``relatively high because of the large size of some of the companies involved, the fact that there were four different cartels and the duration of these cartels,'' said Jonathan Todd, a commission spokesman.

Tokyo-based YKK said in a statement today it had ``cooperated fully'' with the commission during its probes of the cartel. Stolberg, Germany-based Prym also said it had cooperated with the regulator and said the fine was therefore ``disproportionate.''

``The dimensions of the fine are unique in the history of the European Union and are not comparable to any decisions taken in similar cases so far,'' Andreas Engelhardt, Prym's chief executive officer, said in a statement.

Both companies said they will decide on their next steps once they have seen the EU decision. They could then appeal to the Luxembourg-based European Court of First Instance, the main court of appeal for EU antitrust decisions.

Blake Nixon, a spokesman at Guinness Peat Group Plc, the owner of Uxbridge, England-based Coats, wasn't immediately available to comment.

Lower Fines

The EU regulator began the probe on its own initiative after being tipped off. Inspectors conducted surprise visits in November 2001, prompting Prym, Coats and YKK to cooperate with the commission in return for a cut in fines.

It's the latest in a series of fines against companies in the market. In September 2005, the regulator levied 43.5 million euros in penalties against Coats and other makers of industrial thread for operating a price-fixing cartel. In 2004, the EU fined three companies, including Coats and Prym, 60 million euros for operating a cartel in the needle market.

The Court of First Instance, the EU's second-highest court, earlier this month reduced the 2004 fines against the companies to 20 million euros for Coats and 27 million euros for Prym.

Under EU rules, the commission can fine companies accused of abusing their market power as much as 10 percent of their annual sales. In past cases it has opted for about 2 percent to 3 percent of sales.



Advertisement: You've worked, you've saved, now PROTECT your nest egg.!

[Toddy]

No they only have US$44.3 cash or cash equivalents. But since a provision has been made in what looks like strong accounts, they can use someone elses money to pay the bill and it shouldn't change the bottom line.

Arbitrage, I wished I lived in your world where money is free. I'm not too sure of your understanding of the difference between 'accounting standards' and the real world. If GPG only has US$44.3 mil in the bank then it means that they have already used the cashflows elsewhere (or more likely never had cashflows to mtch the provision). A provision is only an accounting term (dr provisional expense, cr balance sheet). The real world starts now, cr real cash in bank.

By someone elses money, I take it you mean a book build, which means shareholders money. If you mean the bank, then we are back to a simple equation of cost of carry.

This series of events will put GPG (and especially Coats) accounts under the spot light. And I for one have given up on trying to make Coats accounts add up.

[Arbitrage]

At least the liability was identified in the accounts. How they deal with it now will be announced shortly.

[I.T.Ancient]

That provision included a previous fine (regarding needles) which they are still fighting to avoid - can't remember the value, but material. The provision will also have been intended to cover legal costs and it is hard to know how much legal cost has already been expensed and how much yet to be charged against the provision. Finally, I wouldn't be surprised if the provision also includes other items entirely.

IMO GPG were complacent about this ruling. The EC is very powerful and very eager to make sure that nobody doubts it. The worst thing GPG can do is to keep fighting, but I bet they do - at ever increasing cost. The EC won't back down. Europe is headed in a very sad/bad direction, but GPG's job is to generate shareholder returns - not to fight stupidity.

[TimeIsMoney]

Can their sale of their stake in NZX be related to this fine at all? According to the herald report, they didn't seem to have the a more solid reason for selling the stake than "other investments".....

[peterb]

That provision included a previous fine (regarding needles) which they are still fighting to avoid - can't remember the value, but material. The provision will also have been intended to cover legal costs and it is hard to know how much legal cost has already been expensed and how much yet to be charged against the provision. Finally, I wouldn't be surprised if the provision also includes other items entirely.

IMO GPG were complacent about this ruling. The EC is very powerful and very eager to make sure that nobody doubts it. The worst thing GPG can do is to keep fighting, but I bet they do - at ever increasing cost. The EC won't back down. Europe is headed in a very sad/bad direction, but GPG's job is to generate shareholder returns - not to fight stupidity.

OK I.T. Ancient: whats so sad/ bad about the combating of Cartel behavior, an activity which undermines the core of some of capitalism's best strengths? Or is that a shareholder staring down the barrel of a not insignificant paper loss and throwing his toys?

[warthog]

The EC is very powerful and very eager to make sure that nobody doubts it. The worst thing GPG can do is to keep fighting, but I bet they do - at ever increasing cost. The EC won't back down. Europe is headed in a very sad/bad direction, but GPG's job is to generate shareholder returns - not to fight stupidity.

This post is a classic example of the remarkable ignorance that exists out there when it comes to knowledge of things outside New Zealand.

The hog contends that the stupid thing to do would be to ignore cartel/monopolistic activity. It takes some bottle for public watchdogs to take on big business. The EU, for all its faults - and there are many - is right to tackle the likes of Microsoft and others who employ anti-competitive means to bully their way through markets and societies. In the case of Microsoft, they have a power-base granted to them by countries like the US, Australia and NZ which has meant that they weild more influence than most small countries.

The other point about Europe heading in a sad/bad direction is a bit of a mystery, as I.T. Ancient gives no clue as to why this might be so, but the hog would wager that it's just mindless banter.

[Arbitrage]

Moving on, GPG have announced an increased shareholding in MMC Contrarian Ltd http://www.mmccontrarian.com.au/
See http://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/quote.aspx?QQE=ASX&QQSC=gpg

Good to see GPG are continuing doing the business.

Altiora peto.

[shasta]

I take personal responsibility for the demise of GPG. I should never never have bought more of these.

The "cujodog effect" strikes again.

Be sure to let us know when you sell Cujo...

It's a screaming buy when you do :D

[shasta]

Shasta

Some people are saying that GPG will open under $1 after the trading halt. Some think as low as 50 cents. What is your opinion?

Cheers

I doubt there will be that kind of kneejerk reaction, although it may shed a few cents if there is any chance there are any "other" problems present.

GPG remains sound & a good defensive currency play against the $ falling.

They do seem to be exiting/selling down some oddball investments on the NZX/ASX, ie NZX itself...

[777]

It has been a while since we have heard from Basetrader on this thread. His opinion on the current situation would be interesting.

However maybe the announcement already released on the ASX is all this trading halt is about.

[Snapper]

Yeah I see that they have allowed in their "provisions" for this type of fine being announced.

Only problem is the "Mum and Dad" shareholders who will panic once more news comes out about this fine over the next couple of days.

"mum and dad" shareholders?? Who's that again?

I suppose it's meant to mean those who aren't in the know, who don't frequent forums like this. I suspect that the collective wisdom of the mums and dads is at least the equal of sharetrader participants.

I also suspect that the most likely panickers will be traders and institutions who may sell on the belief that they will be able to buy back in at a lower price.

Disc. Holding and not selling

[peterb]

Is there any chance that GPG will be forced into receivership?

Stop downramping. I suspect you're one big joke, but at times seriousness is only appropriate

[living2]

Regulatory Announcement

Go to market news section

Company Guinness Peat Group PLC
TIDM GPG
Headline Doc re. Coats Group Ltd
Released 14:57 20-Sep-07
Number 2095E







Guinness Peat Group plc



GPG’s subsidiary, Coats Group Limited, has issued the following statement in relation to the European Commission’s decision on fasteners.



Richard Russell

Company Secretary

Guinness Peat Group plc



20th September 2007



Contacts:







Mike Smithyman, CEO Coats Group Limited
UK
00 44 20 8210 5168





Gary Weiss, Chairman Coats Group Limited
Australia
00 61 2 8298 4305










20th September 2007





European Commission Fasteners Decision



In relation to the European Commission's decision on fasteners announced yesterday, Coats notes that full details of the Commission’s reasoning are not yet available. In the interim, Coats has the following comments on the decision:



· Coats notes the Commission's allegation that between April 1998 and November 1999 European zip manufacturers exchanged price information and in respect of which the Commission has fined Coats EUR 12.2 million. Coats has at all times fully co-operated with the Commission's investigation into the fasteners market and will carefully study the Commission's conclusions once details are made available before determining whether to appeal against this aspect of the Commission’s decision.



· Coats totally rejects the Commission's allegation of a market sharing agreement with Prym in the European haberdashery market and in respect of which Coats has been fined EUR 110.3 million. During the investigation Coats presented the Commission with ample evidence which refuted this allegation and demonstrated that in any event a fine was time-barred. Contrary to its rights under the European Convention on Human Rights, Coats was not permitted to examine the witness who made this allegation. Coats will vigorously appeal the decision to the Court of First Instance once the full details of the Commission's decision have been made available. The Court of First Instance last week quashed a large part of the Commission’s factual findings in the Needles case for want of proof or clear misinterpretation of the evidence by the Commission. We have confidence in the impartial, judicial analysis that the Court applies. As well as rejecting the substance of the decision, Coats believes that the size of the fine is grossly disproportionate to any possible impact that such an agreement could have had on the European haberdashery market. Our customers have certainly not been injured.



· Subject to a review of the details, once received, of the Commission’s decision, Coats remains of the view that any anticipated eventual payment of fines is adequately covered by existing provisions. A guarantee for the original amount of the fine will be posted for the duration of the appeal. Only once we have completed the appeal process will payment of any fine, as finally determined by the Court, be made.

· It should be noted that the alleged contraventions occurred many years ago, between 1977 -1999, prior to the acquisition of Coats by the GPG Group and do not involve any current members of the Coats Board or management team. Anti-competitive behaviour goes directly against company policy and represents a serious disciplinary offence.

· It should be stressed that this legacy issue has no impact on Coats current operations which continue to make good progress. Coats acknowledges the full support of its shareholder GPG and its role in the successful development of the business over the last four years.









END

[ratkin]

Its time this company realised its assets , sold up and returned all money to shareholders.
Company has lost the plot, lost its drive and is increasingly made up of dross

[Toddy]

Its time this company realised its assets , sold up and returned all money to shareholders.
Company has lost the plot, lost its drive and is increasingly made up of dross


Ratkin

That a bit harsh. Your statement is however correct in relation to Coats. The only problem, who would want to buy this risky business, unless at a massive discount.

[warthog]

Is there any chance that GPG will be forced into receivership?

The hog thinks cujodog is Brian Gaynor

[redzone]

Bil ....its Like Thisle All Over Again

[Dr_Who]

Bil ....its Like Thisle All Over Again

The Singapore major shareholders seems to be able to turn Thisles around and BRY have done well since they took over management.

[living2]

What pathetic responses to EU decisions by sharetraders.
Do the fines relate to present management!!!! NO
Does it have a material affect on Coates and GPG valuations? NO
Even if GPG had to pay the fine in full it is only less than 2&#37; of assets.DAH
Has this been overhanging the GPG shareprice? YES

[777]

living2 I tend to agree with you re sentiments towards GPG but by my calculation the fine represents about 7% of assets if using the valuation last put out by von Dadelszen & Co on the 10/9/07.

http://www.vond.co.nz/GPG/GPG070910.pdf

They value the GPG at £1,193,159,000. The fine is 122,000,000 euros which by my calculation is about £83,400,000. This is about 7%.

A bit of a hit but not the end of the world.

Disc.. Have over 200,000 GPG and not selling. If I didn't have so many then I would be buying at these prices.

[living2]

Cujodog sells GPG price recovers???

[Snapper]

First NZ said today that the fine was 'nuisance value and unfortunate rather than catastrophic'. They still have GPG as outperform and a target price of $2.46 with a NAV of $2.41.

Pinning this one on GPG directors is a bit harsh - as for Cujodog his downramping might have to get a bit more subtle.

[Dr_Who]

Cujodog sells GPG price recovers???


LOL he probably shorted the stock

[777]

Business Story from NZ Herald.


GPG's delayed disclosure annoys NZX

5:00AM Saturday September 22, 2007
By Adam Bennett


Guinness Peat Group is in the dog box with market operator New Zealand Exchange for allowing its shares to trade on Thursday morning without disclosing that key subsidiary Coats had been fined $230 million by European regulators.

The European Competition Commissioner issued a public statement about the fine late on Wednesday night New Zealand time but GPG shares traded on the NZX for two hours on Thursday morning without the company informing the market of the penalty. They fell 5c to $1.93 before NZX became aware of the fine and placed the shares in a trading halt at midday.

"We heard the information indirectly," said NZX spokeswoman Rowan MacRae.

"As soon as we heard, we had concerns that the market would be trading on an unevenly informed basis."

Investors largely took the news in their stride when GPG's shares began trading again yesterday after the company released an announcement from Coats before the market opened. GPG shares ended the session with a comparatively minor 4c loss at $1.89.



Nevertheless MacRae said NZX would take the matter up with GPG, "and these issues will be dealt with accordingly".

GPG New Zealand director Tony Gibbs yesterday said his company did not see fit to issue a statement to the NZX on Thursday because the news was already in the public domain and GPG had not had a chance to convene a Coats board meeting to consider a response. However, the lack of an announcement to the market on Thursday also raised eyebrows among investors.

Rickey Ward of Tyndall Investments said news of the fine was material to GPG's share price and should have been fully disclosed as soon as possible.

"Much as I like GPG as an investment, I thought it was a little bit poor," he said.

The affair highlighted GPG's general lack of disclosure, which he believed was the reason the investment company consistently traded at a discount to its net asset backing.

Coats' fine was part of €369 million ($699 million) in penalties handed out by the European Competition Commissioner to seven companies for operating a series of cartels in the European market for zips and other clothing fasteners between 1977 and 1999.

In its statement, Coats said it would "vigorously appeal" the fine in court once it had received full details of the commissioner's decision, which are expected within the next month.

Coats said the size of the fine was "grossly disproportionate to any possible impact" that the alleged cartels had on the European haberdashery market. "Our customers certainly have not been injured."

Coats reiterated Gibbs' comments yesterday, saying "any anticipated eventual payment of fines is adequately covered by existing provisions".

[a bowden]

London must have overreacted because yesterday their was a GAIN of
68.000 +2.50 +3.82&#37;

Can we expect the same on Monday?

[POSSUM THE CAT]

AS it was on ASB business TV programme on thursday morning. How could GPG have better informed the market. An announcement to stock exchange would have informed how many more people.

[777]

I would say "how many watch ASB Business?"

[Ted2]

I would say "how many watch ASB Business?"

A lot more than will when it moves to 6am!!!!

[Arbitrage]

68p = NZ$1.85

[Toddy]

The sellers are back in control. Watch out if the 190 is broken.

[Kropotkin]

mmmmm...

hopefully some tasty snacks at the 165c-170c range

*wishful thinking!*:p

[Arbitrage]

Reading the Interim report for GPG, I can't help but wonder when they will start to sell off the bits of Coats Ltd that are now performing, ie they have added value to, or the bits such as the crafts division that they say are "structurally mature". Any action would certainly give the share price a nudge upwards.
Any thoughts?

[Sideshow Bob]

Have you just bought Cujo??

[living2]

Share price getting absolutely smashed. Is this company in danger of going into receivership?

Now I get it CJD,otherwise known as made cow disease

[Jessie]

I believe GPG has more cash than total debt - even if all its investments simultaneously became worthless it wouldn't be in danger of receivership.

[stevo1]

IMHO gpg's underperformance due to poorly performing portfolio.eu ruling and fine imposed.lack of keeping market informed including shareholders.no real exposure to the mining boom.high nz dollar.old tired management.on a more positive note large american institution(tempelton i think)has taken a holding in them.possability the raider may get raided at some stage particularly if sp goes low enough.i no longer hold them but good luck to gpg holders

[_Michael]

I think Stevo sums it all up nicely - however I would not be surprised if Ron pulls some kind of trick out of the bag at the eleventh hour to crystallize more value in the portfolio - the sugar industry shake down might take years to play out but as some have mentioned there are parts of Coats that might be ready to be sold off - and when they off-load all their TAL shares which they are likely (in a bundle no doubt to the highest bidder) they would be in good financial shape and sitting on another pile of cash - with Capral continuing to be the main anchor to the future....

[777]

I think that the 5 year exemption from FDR that they got from the NZ government indicates a time frame for cashing up and winding up GPG. The fact that there are only a few who run the company and are all nearing their career ends supports my opinion. Would any of the current management want to hand over the running of the company to some newbies?

[Sideshow Bob]

ABN Amro (who I deal with occassionally) rang me up the other day recommending to sell, saying that their has been a few decisions they haven't been happy with lately.

Then their newsletter arrived in the mail yesterday morning, and has them as a buy....

Buy/sell, I guess that's how they make their money.

[Toddy]

Can one of the TA experts out there please confirm that GPG is now a SELL.

They may be sitting on some more news given the latest weakness.

[Phaedrus]

Sell GPG?
Now?
Toddy, where have you been!!!!!!!

Take a look at the charts on pages 107, 108, 109 etc.

The chart on page 112 provides a complete wrap-up.

[TwinkleToes]

Phaedrus

your downramping is becoming quite tedious and annoying. If you haven't got anything positive to say about GPG then how about buggering off to another thread!

Phaedrus, I for one, welcome a vigorous debate around this stock and hence your input.

[living2]

Phaedrus

your downramping is becoming quite tedious and annoying. If you haven't got anything positive to say about GPG then how about buggering off to another thread!

tHE MAD DOG BARKS AGAIN

[Arbitrage]

I too welcome Phaedrus's input. However if it makes you feel better cjd, I will try to ramp up the price and say that GPG will be up a couple of points today.

[warthog]

The hog says ... don't feed the trolls (especially not those in dog's clothing).

[Arbitrage]

Food is good. Keeps an animal calm.
GPG was only up one point yesterday. Try 4 points today to catch up.

[warthog]

Food is good. Keeps an animal calm.
GPG was only up one point yesterday. Try 4 points today to catch up.

Bite the hand ...

[Placebo]

A question for GPG holders. Even if this share price stays flat forever and a day, so long as the company keeps splitting 1-for-10 every year that matters not a jot,y ou are still pulling in a 10% annual return.

is that enough for you to make it a buy and hold? If TA says "it is in a trading range", does that really matter?

[Phaedrus]

If TA says "it is in a trading range", does that really matter?

Well, yes it does, actually. The chart is already corrected for the annual 10% splits so if it shows a trading range, you really are making nothing. Similarly if the chart shows a downtrend, you really are losing money.

The situation you describe would show as an uptrend with a 10% annual rise on a corrected chart, appearing as a trading range only on an uncorrected chart.

[Placebo]

Well, yes it does, actually. The chart is already corrected for the annual 10% splits so if it shows a trading range, you really are making nothing. Similarly if the chart shows a downtrend, you really are losing money.

The situation you describe would show as an uptrend with a 10% annual rise on a corrected chart, appearing as a trading range only on an uncorrected chart.

Thanks for the reply Phaedrus. Yes that was my question, does the chart take account of the split, which your answer has more clearly crystallised than my initial rantings... :D

[Gryffyn]

Don't forget that they do pay a small divvy each year as well. Only a few % but it all adds up :-)

[Gryffyn]

Slight dip last couple of days - where's BT to explain it?

[macduffy]

GPG at $1-80 ! Support in sight?

[Phaedrus]

$1.78?

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/GPG118.gif

[Arbitrage]

Last sale was $1.79....

[Glendoonie]

$1.78?

Thank you, sir :)

[Glendoonie]

Last sale was $1.79....

Last trade $1.82 (phew) ;)

[Arbitrage]

"Going bust"!! A bit inflammatory.

Go to the LSE and plot the GPG price against the FTSE 100 and you may see some of the explanation for the price movements. The NZ share price for GPG is complicated by currency movements and the multinational nature of its investments.

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/en-gb/pricesnews/prices/System/DetailedPrices.htm?sym=GB0032163650GBGBXSEAQ321636 5GPG#PriceChart

[Year of the Tiger]

This company is slowly going bust. Unbelievable. I am losing a packet in this now!

Cujo, our old canine friend, why don't you do GPG a favour and sell your shares? :D

YOTT

[Jay]

Good idea YOTT
Cujodog has lost a lot of "packets" over the years.
I wish I had that many to start with :)

[COLIN]

After enjoying many years of favourable returns from GPG I started to have my doubts about a year ago, as to their ability to continue producing the goods, and gradually sold all of my holdings which constituted almost 10% of my portfolio at one stage. I think the market is worried about Coats in particular (a bit of a millstone around their necks, like Thistle was with BIL in Ron's former life) but there are also other situations that are less than satisfactory, such as Capral Aluminium. Yes, the market overall has been twitchy of late, but GPG with the much-vaunted "skill" of Ron and his team, should be out-performing the market.

I think that Phaedrus would say that GPG is now at the point of dropping through a key resistance level.

[BigBob]

I think that Phaedrus would say that GPG is now at the point of dropping through a key resistance level.

Or it may be just about to hold a key support level.... ;o) Only time will tell.....

[Mick100]

Or it may be just about to hold a key support level.... ;o) .

.....and put in a nice big double bottom :cool:

[Toddy]

The US downturn could really hurt the Coats business. The GPG portfolio is not a defensive one so their SP may take a bigger hit than others.

[COLIN]

The US downturn could really hurt the Coats business. The GPG portfolio is not a defensive one so their SP may take a bigger hit than others.

Agree, Toddy. It was the downturn in the crafts business in the USA that was already giving them trouble.

[gulf]

Not sure about the downturn yet-retailers in the US well up overnight.

[COLIN]

Not sure about the downturn yet-retailers in the US well up overnight.

Yes, Walmart's good result seemed to take the market by surprise.
GPG seems to have bounced back up, off its 178 support level ("double bottoms" are supposed to be significant, so I understand from TA people) but I still have my doubts about their longer-term prospects and am not tempted to buy back in.

[Arbitrage]

Does anyone know why a takeover bid of the Newbury Racecourse by GPG announced in London yesterday is not allowed to be published outside the uk?

[777]

It could be that it will be announced here today but here is the link.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=GPG:LN&sid=aA8ND48C_nbo

[Arbitrage]

Interesting that it will be funded from GPG's cash resources, which they have plenty of at the moment.

[Toddy]

Whats the plan. To convert it into a dairy farm, or run sheep maybe. A Coats factory, the options are endless.

[winner69]

Whats the plan. To convert it into a dairy farm, or run sheep maybe. A Coats factory, the options are endless.


Read the full notice linked above post


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aA8ND48C_nbo



GPG really pissed with newbury management and this is an effort to get something out of this investment

Quite interesting really but seems typical of the long protracted 'squables' GPG seem to get involved in to extract intrinsic value .... in this case some residential land

Tell me what you make of it

[Toddy]

Winner69

I cannot see the story under this link. Could you please copy and paste onto the sharetrader site.

[777]

GPG
15/11/2007
ASSET

REL: 0843 HRS Guinness Peat Group Plc

ASSET: GPG: Takeover offer by GPG for Newbury Racecourse PLC in the UK

GUINNESS PEAT GROUP PLC

INTENTION TO MAKE A TAKEOVER OFFER FOR
NEWBURY RACECOURSE PLC IN THE UK

In accordance with the continuing obligations of Guinness Peat Group plc
("GPG") on the New Zealand Stock Market ("NZX"), the following announcement,
which has been released today in the UK, is copied to the NZX for information
only. It relates to a takeover offer being made in the UK by a wholly owned
subsidiary of GPG for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of
Newbury Racecourse PLC ("Offer").

Richard Russell
Company Secretary
Guinness Peat Group plc
Tel: +44 20 7484 3370

14 November 2007

NEWBURY RACECOURSE PLC
Cash offer to be made by Strand Partners Limited on behalf of GPG
Acquisitions No. 5 Limited for the entire issued and to be issued ordinary
share capital of Newbury Racecourse PLC

SUMMARY
- Strand Partners announces a cash offer of ?11 per share on behalf of GPG
Acquisitions for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Newbury
Racecourse not already held by
GPG. The Offer values the existing issued ordinary share capital of Newbury
Racecourse at approximately ?33.49 million in aggregate.
- The Offer represents an opportunity for Newbury Racecourse Shareholders to
realise cash at a premium to the highest Closing Price of Newbury Racecourse
Shares since the Company's
flotation.
- As at 13 November 2007, being the last Business Day prior to this
announcement, GPG held 629,018 Newbury Racecourse Shares, representing
approximately 20.66 per cent. of the Company's existing issued ordinary share
capital.
- The Offer Price represents a premium of 11.68 per cent. to the Closing
Price of ?9.85 per Newbury Racecourse Share on 13 November 2007, being the
last Business Day prior to the
commencement of the Offer Period.
- The Offer is conditional on valid acceptances having been received in
respect of such number of Newbury Racecourse Shares which, together with the
Newbury Racecourse Shares held by GPG, carry 75 per cent. or more of the
voting rights normally exercisable at general meetings of Newbury Racecourse.

- Newbury Racecourse Shareholders should note that the Offer will,
critically, also be conditional on no agreement, arrangement or commitment,
or amendment to any existing
agreement, having been entered into for the sale or development of any
material real estate asset owned by any member of the Newbury Racecourse
Group.
- Upon the Offer becoming wholly unconditional, GPG intends to take control
of the Newbury Racecourse Board and conduct a strategic review of the Company
and, in particular, its
development plans.

Commenting on the Offer, Blake Nixon, Chairman of GPG Acquisitions, said:
"Newbury Racecourse is now at the crossroads and we feel unable to support
what we believe to be ill-considered plans on the part of the Newbury Board
to enter precipitately into agreements
that we do not regard as being in the best interests of shareholders. We are
therefore offering shareholders the opportunity, rather than being locked in
to an uncertain future, to realise all or part of their investments at a
significant premium to the current market price."

The Offer Document and, in the case of Newbury Racecourse Shares held in
certificated form, the Form of Acceptance, will be posted to Newbury
Racecourse Shareholders by Strand Partners as soon as practicable. Copies of
the Offer Document and the Form of Acceptance will be available from Strand
Partners Limited at 26 Mount Row, London W1K 3SQ.
End CA:00156755 For:GPG Type:ASSET Time:2007-11-15:08:43:17

[COLIN]

Announcement was on the NZX early this morning.

[winner69]

It could be that it will be announced here today but here is the link.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=GPG:LN&sid=aA8ND48C_nbo

Toddy try this link

[Toddy]

Emm. That is sure an unusual way to make a takeover offer.

Normally you would focus on the positives and leave any undermining of current management out of it.

They must have had a big punch up for sure.

Reading between the lines GPG are more likely making the offer to 'up' the SP so that they can dump their 20&#37; at a higher price in the future. In todays world you don't very often see a takeover suceed at a 11% premium to the previous days closing price.

[Arbitrage]

Great to see Tower NZ back on track and paying a dividend. While it represents only about 2.5% of GPG's asset base, it is still good news.

[whatsup]

I agree that the tower div is great if you read the ann they dont want to over pay and then have to cut back the div in the future but gradually increase it over time ,well done guys after the close brush with financial death.

[Arbitrage]

GPG
10/12/2007
TAKEOVER

REL: 0836 HRS Guinness Peat Group Plc

TAKEOVER: GPG: Takeover Offer for Newbury Racecourse in UK

GUINNESS PEAT GROUP PLC

TAKEOVER OFFER FOR
NEWBURY RACECOURSE PLC IN THE UK

Further to the announcement made on 14 November 2007, and in accordance with
the continuing obligations of Guinness Peat Group plc ("GPG") as an overseas
listed issuer on the New Zealand Stock Market ("NZSX") the following
announcement, which has been released today in the UK, is copied to the NZSX
for information only. It relates to the publication of an offer document in
support of the takeover offer being made in the UK by a wholly owned
subsidiary of GPG for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of
Newbury Racecourse PLC ("Offer").

A copy of the Offer Document appears on the Guinness Peat Group plc website
at www.gpgplc.com.

The Offer will not be made, directly or indirectly, in or into, or by the use
of the mails of, or by any means or instrumentality (including, without
limitation, facsimile transmission, telex, telephone, internet, email or
other forms of electronic communication) of interstate or foreign commerce
of, or by a facility of a national, state or other securities exchange of,
Australia and will not be capable of acceptance by any such use, means,
instrumentality or facility or from within Australia.

Richard Russell
Company Secretary
Guinness Peat Group plc
Tel: +44 20 7484 3370

7 December 2007
End CA:00157971 For:GPG Type:TAKEOVER Time:2007-12-10:08:36:56

[777]

Just a continual slide now. Has had various support levels but they have gone by the wayside.

[Toddy]

Just a continual slide now. Has had various support levels but they have gone by the wayside.

The danger with GPG is that there is always the possibility of major inventory write downs with their Coats business given the head winds in the USA. The investers and analysists just have to trust management and take their word for what is happening. As stated previously, investing in Coats is not very transparent.

I know that others on this chat site disagree, but sometimes as a qualified accountant I just cannot get away from fundamental analysis approach.


Its a case of buyer beware.

[Dr_Who]

Coates has the smell of BRY thistle hotel written all over it.

[777]

As an individual we are always told to diversify. As an investment company they are over weighted in Coats. Great if it turns out OK but not if it does not perform.

Still think they will wind up GPG within the 5 year FDR exemption period.

[ScrappyO]

Still think they will wind up GPG within the 5 year FDR exemption period.

They should have before they bought coats

[COLIN]

Coates has the smell of BRY thistle hotel written all over it.

Agree. I came to that conclusion a few months ago, and gradually offloaded my not insignificant holding. GPG served me so well, for so many years, but the gloss has now gone off it and I'm afraid Uncle Ron has had his day - along with Dr Seuss and the rest of the gang. Ron should just sit back and enjoy his beloved cricket.

[winner69]

GPG at $1-80 ! Support in sight?


GPG at 169 - support in sight ..... what support cujodog says

[spoilt]

Any idea what shareholders would most likely receive in the event of wind-up of the company?

[winner69]

Any idea what shareholders would most likely receive in the event of wind-up of the company?

Spoilt .... a few months old but this guy reckons you'd get $2.66

http://www.vond.co.nz/GPG/GPG070910.pdf

No need to cry over the spoilt milk yet mate

[Arbitrage]

I would be interested in a comment from Sir Ron about why the share price is dropping as the ftse improves.

[warthog]

GPG and the FTSE don't have a lot in common, so if you were to get a comment out of RB - which you won't - thats what it would be.