COA - Coats Group plc (formerly GPG - Guinness Peat Group Plc)

[macduffy]

I seem to remember some where that GPG had $100 mill on deposit waiting for "bargans" to fall its way!!!!!!!!!!!

Well at 30 June 2008 it had a lot more than that. GBP240m which at today's exchange rate must be close to NZD700m!
I don't recall seeing that they've spent much since so even after paying the Coats fine and their hefty directors' fees, there should be a good chunk of that left.

;)

[Jessie]

Well at 30 June 2008 it had a lot more than that. GBP240m which at today's exchange rate must be close to NZD700m!
I don't recall seeing that they've spent much since so even after paying the Coats fine and their hefty directors' fees, there should be a good chunk of that left.

;)

I presume we can also add the $400m from the timely sale of Tower Australia

[777]

So $1,100 million divided by 1,416,992,903 shares gives 77.6c/share in cash.

[macduffy]

I havn't seen an estimated Net Assets per share figure for a while but back in August/September there was one published at 65pence which would be equivalent today to about NZD1-85.
From memory, that didn't include profit from the Tower Aust sale and valued Coats at GPG's book value.

[winner69]

So $1,100 million divided by 1,416,992,903 shares gives 77.6c/share in cash.

.....and debt of how much?

[777]

.....and debt of how much?


Figure their investments would cover that. Coats must be worth something.

[macduffy]

Figure their investments would cover that. Coats must be worth something.

Yes, Net Assets means net after debts.

[warthog]

Hi warthog.

I'm honoured to join the fraternity. Is there a secret handshake?

;)

No handshake, but a simple trick with a chisel ... :)

[whatsup]

GPG at it again offer in for MYOB in Aussie , GPG has a 12% shareholding , more $$$$$$$$$$$$'s in the bank for the future if the T O goes through.

[BRICKS]

GPG at it again offer in for MYOB in Aussie , GPG has a 12% shareholding , more $$$$$$$$$$$$'s in the bank for the future if the T O goes through.


MYOB one of the better bets but not enough to turn the BIZ around,, OWN 13.6%,
of MYOB @ a cost of approx 72 cents with takeover bid of $1.15 could if all goes well
a profit of $22,693,070.00 APPROX but remember GPG has not collected any DIV`s..

[BRICKS]

MYOB one of the better bets but not enough to turn the BIZ around,, OWN 13.6%,
of MYOB @ a cost of approx 72 cents with takeover bid of $1.15 could if all goes well
a profit of $22,693,070.00 APPROX but remember GPG has not collected any DIV`s..


WELL GPG has made its call to Archer Capital and wants OUT that's the easy Bit then the complications set in.. GPG & CFI with Archer control 34%, archer wants 50.1% to up the price to $1.25 from $1.15 but the board wont budge there is more but to hard to tell
both sides have there advisers so that's the battle GROUND..

GPG is not a BUY yet..

[macduffy]

Thanks, b, for that timely reminder.

GPG has plenty of problems but also quite a few valuable assets. I'm not buying any more but certainly not selling at today's price.

;)

[macduffy]

To which I would only add that timing and the attractiveness or otherwise of the assets would be critical in the event of a liquidation sale.
There have to be willing buyers for the assets and any suggestion of forced, "fire-sale" selling would depress prices. As belgarion says, there is no suggestion that this is the case with GPG although they have always been prepared to sell assets when they assess that they are fully valued.

[Hoop]

Under UK disclosure rules

GPG NAV 66.1p/s = NZ$1.78/s as at 30 Sept 2008

We have had October/November Global Equity Capitulation since then...rather old news I would've thought.

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=2103027

[Arbitrage]

Does anyone know why the share price is improving or is it just rising with the tide?

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Arbitrage Devaluation of NZ dollar against GB Pound

[Anna Naum]

Increased volume and rising price....

[BRICKS]

MYOB has been sold and the money is on the way shortly but really only a flea bite
in the scheme of things to the trouble facing the company unloading of CSR would be a good THING..

[winner69]

See the big bearded one (no not Santa) got a New Years gong .... congrats to Tony

Did say that 2008 was a hard year and 2009 is 'probably going to be harder' if thats any consolation to GPG shareholders

[BRICKS]

WELL COM BANK sold out of MYOB today so the money is on the WAY..

[BRICKS]

WELL GPG has admitted the truth at last they have a bloody lot of rubbish in the portfolio
so out it will have to go could be as much as $300 million pounds if they stick to the TRUTH..

With a rough est of the 42 main investments 7 are worth $0. 7 more have halve value the
rest 28 will get there money back the card is Coats Group depends on who BUYS..

GPG has not stated if they took up there CSR issue but feel they did not ?? but they will get back the MYOB money BACK..

SO Mr B tell the TRUTH..

[777]

That is what he has done. Not an unexpected announcement with the downward movements in the markets over the last months. But why so "aggro" bricks? You of course have done a lot better in this market, being so wise.

[BRICKS]

That is what he has done. Not an unexpected announcement with the downward movements in the markets over the last months. But why so "aggro" bricks? You of course have done a lot better in this market, being so wise.


GPG has been in this boat for some years not just now this down turn at present is being blamed for everything and has come for Mr B to explain companies that where bought years ago and they never worked RIGHT to state 777 most like yourself KIWI are in love with Mr B ask all KIWI`s who lost there hard earned in his first biz..

GPG has always been tricky with its accounts and listings time to TELL..

[macduffy]

Yes, the days of GPG ( and BIL before them) being able to move the market in a stock by taking a holding are long gone. These days it might be seen more as a reason to take a good hard look at selling.

[777]

GPG has been in this boat for some years not just now this down turn at present is being blamed for everything and has come for Mr B to explain companies that where bought years ago and they never worked RIGHT to state 777 most like yourself KIWI are in love with Mr B ask all KIWI`s who lost there hard earned in his first biz..

GPG has always been tricky with its accounts and listings time to TELL..

I wasn't trying to be rude Bricks but you don't ever post anything positive on any subject. Coats to GPG is exactly the same as Thistle was to BIL. Too bigger deal for too longer hold period to realize the potential. Also remember it was not Mr B who screwed BIL. It was the turkey's who booted him out because they could do better.

[Balance]

I wasn't trying to be rude Bricks but you don't ever post anything positive on any subject. Coats to GPG is exactly the same as Thistle was to BIL. Too bigger deal for too longer hold period to realize the potential. Also remember it was not Mr B who screwed BIL. It was the turkey's who booted him out because they could do better.

I think you will find it was Mr B who got BIL into Mt Charlotte. Property play gone horribly wrong. Mr B cannot blame anyone for Coats if Coats take GPG down. Investors bought into GPG because they believe he oversees everything and wanted to prove that he could recapture past glories.

Let's hope they come out of Coats alright. We DO NOT need another disaster.

[Balance]

Brian Gaynor throws up some numbers ...

"Investment companies are usually assessed on NAV, rather than earnings, and broker analysts estimate GPG's NAV between $1.89 and $2.34 (see table). Thus its $1.41 share price is 25.4 per cent to 39.7 per cent below assessed NAV."
from ... http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10529713

If Brian's right (and he frequently is!) then there's 100% from today's close in this puppy for those who wait ... (Actually I'd be pretty pleased if we got back to the 1.41 which is where it was when he wrote it ... :) ...)

$1.33 is where GPG values its assets.

[macduffy]

I think you will find it was Mr B who got BIL into Mt Charlotte. Property play gone horribly wrong. Mr B cannot blame anyone for Coats if Coats take GPG down. Investors bought into GPG because they believe he oversees everything and wanted to prove that he could recapture past glories.

Let's hope they come out of Coats alright. We DO NOT need another disaster.

I certainly don't claim an infallible memory but I'm pretty sure that Mr C was the prime mover for the play on Mt Charlotte. Obviously, the rest of the board thought that it was a good idea too - at the time - not realising that they had worked themselves into the position of having to takeover the entire company!

:rolleyes:

[croesus]

Pretty sure it was Collins.. surely somebody remembers...... here is a question what happened to that protege,..... Russell Goward... he moved on to running his own company Westmex .. which went tits up.. but have never heard of him since

[macduffy]

looking to buy some ... 91 seems like a good deal for a backbone of a NZ portfolio

I don't quite follow the NZ portfolio bit.
GPG is a UK company with a mainly UK and Aust portfolio and special exemption from NZ authorities to be exempted from " foreign investment " requirements for a limited period.
I still hold some but I'm coming increasingly to the view that it's no longer a satisfactory investment for a NZ portfolio.

[winner69]

So the Coats valuation has (quote)'become a speculative
evaluation and we have prudently confined its value to the level of GPG's
invested funds and earnings since acquisition (end quote)

Whereas the management working model values the rest of their portfolio at current market prices they leave Coats valuation alone and include what they have it as in their own books ..... at NZ$2.37 billion less debt of $1.62 billion.

That values Coats at about 8 times EBITDA (if things haven't got too bad the last few months) and in these times of declining multiplies that is pretty rich.

Reduce that EBITDA multiple to 6 and the NZ$2.37 billion is reduced to NZ$1.77 billion ... ..... less debt of NZ$1.62 billion gives not that much

GPGs evaluation of Coats is 'speculative' and so is mine but if mine is 'closer to the mark' one needs to reduce the NAV of NZ$1.33 by 42 cents ..... ie 91 cents

Freaky stuff eh .... the same number Belg came up with a post or so back ..... maybe the punters do believe that GPG evaluations are slightly optimistic

[TwinkleToes]

It would be great if the market priced the bonds properly at about 12 - 15%.

[winner69]

looking to buy some ... 91 seems like a good deal for a backbone of a NZ portfolio

Tomorrow might be the day Belg .... hope you something left from this months pay packet

[winner69]

belg ... how about a .............. ;)

[BRICKS]

LOL ... ;) ... there ya go.

Bit confused about what to do with GPG tho. When it broke below 90 I bought some more and then stopped but bought a few more yesterday. In this market I really don't feel confident enough to decide on the shape of a pyrimid for GPG so don't really have a clear picture on how best to "average down" so that I beat the TAs. At present its looking like a tall skinny one which means the TAs will win this one. However, at this time, just about anything could happen.

I wonder how much of the big pile of cash that GPG has in the bank is left ... And I wonder who they'll be lining up to pounce on.

WELL one thing they issued another 620,000 shares to settle a bill yesterday but it was a bit hard to work out wot FORE..

[macduffy]

The big exposure to Coats is an increasing worry as this recession deepens.
GPG may need to conserve its cash as insurance against major problems there so I don't expect any " lightning raids", despite apparently attractive targets at present.

[Phaedrus]

Bit confused about what to do with GPG .... It's fairly late in the day to be admitting confusion, Belg! You could simply continue averaging down, adding to your long-term position.....


In this market I really don't feel confident enough to decide on the shape of a pyrimid for GPG The shape of the pyramid of little importance. Adding to a losing position is bad practice regardless of how or when you do it.


I don't really have a clear picture on how best to "average down" There's really only one way Belg! Just keep adding to your position, buying more every time the shareprice drops. Tell me though, why are you looking for the "best" way to implement a losing strategy? The best way to "average down" is not to do it at all!


I don't really have a clear picture on how best to..... beat the TAs. It's not TA you are trying to beat Belg - it's the market. All TA does is tell you that GPG is in a downtrend. You will NEVER beat the market by buying and holding downtrending stocks.


However, at this time, just about anything could happen. True. All we really know is that GPG is in a downtrend and has been since March 2007 (point 3 on the chart). You have held (and added to) a longterm position in a stock in a longterm downtrend.

Belg, forgive me for featuring your comments in this chart, but they form a poignant case history that clearly illustrates the folly of buying and holding downtrending stocks, adding to losing positions and averaging down. I do so in the hope that others might learn from your mistakes.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/GPG129.gif

[Phaedrus]

Assuming that the GPG low is 80 cents........
We know that GPG is still falling, but no-one can say how low it will go or when it will bottom out. We have no reason to assume that the low will be 80 cents and in any case it would be foolish to base a buying strategy on an arbitrary assumption.



At what price would TA tell you re-enter It is not possible to give you a fixed entry price. The idea is to wait for some objective evidence that the downtrend has slowed or reversed. Examples would include :-
A trendline break.
A break above a trailing short stop.
A significant rise in the On Balance Volume.
Momentum becoming positive.
Appropriate oscillators rising from OverSold levels, etc.

[AMR]

Just a quick hypothetical question - Assuming that the GPG low is 80 cents - At what price would TA tell you re-enter?

If you want to trade breakouts then a close above the 100-107 trading range would do nicely as an entry signal...but this is generally a low probabilty trade as long as the trend is down.

[winner69]

Since the recent GPG disclosure of their portfolio most of the bigger holdings in Australia are down heaps .... CSR down A$15m, Canberra Investments and Junnings another A$13m odd, Maryborough Suger A$3m

In NZ a solid increase in Tower is offsite by Turners being down and Young in UK don't seem to be doing too badly

Wonder if anybody added up all the GPG investments again? and no doubt Coats is less valuabke then it was a few weeks ago

[macduffy]

Yes, their overall Aust/NZ listed investments are down but given that Coats is by far their biggest exposure and that we only have GPG's word for its value, there doesn't seem much point in trying to estimate the overall value of their portfolio.

Or am I being excessively pessimistic?

Disc: Holding GPG.

[BRICKS]

LOOKOUT 50 cents is on its way and there is nothing to stop IT..

[croesus]

I suspect if (when) Coates announce they are in trouble... your figure of 50c is a tad optimistic Bricks.

[warthog]

I suspect if (when) Coates announce they are in trouble... your figure of 50c is a tad optimistic Bricks.

"suspect" + "if" + "tad" = wide open.

[bermuda]

I suspect if (when) Coates announce they are in trouble... your figure of 50c is a tad optimistic Bricks.

Sold my wife's GPG today at 79 cents. Have been learning from Phaedrus...for which thanks.

[croesus]

Will Coates be history repeating the 1990 Thistle Hotel/ Mt Charlotte... debacle..?

[croesus]

Fair comment Bel.

None of us knows how ugly this is going to get.......... what if Coates does go tits up...???
What is a fair value for GPG if Coates are excised....???

plan for the worst.. hope for the best.

Croesus

[AMR]

If you think about it a company like BIL or GPG does the things which Phadreus and other technicians always talk about newbie sharetraders doing.

1. Selling profitable investments early
2. Holding onto duds like Coates/Thistle "until they recover"

[Snoopy]

If you think about it a company like BIL or GPG does the things which Phadreus and other technicians always talk about newbie sharetraders doing.

1. Selling profitable investments early
2. Holding onto duds like Coates/Thistle "until they recover"


A very poor analogy AMR.

If you have a large stake in a company (like BIL/GPG) the quoted market share price does not reflect what you can get for that stake. You can't sell except by flooding the market and that means the share price quoted is effectively meaningless to these guys. By flooding the market you may have to sell at a discount, or have the good fortune to flush out a buyer that wants a large stake which means you can sell at a premium. GPG/BIL are specialists at doing the latter.

GPG and the 'old' BIL have good records of selling at a premium. But in order to do that you have to leave something in the pot for the purchaser, otherwise you would never make the sale. So 'selling profitable investments early' is actually part of the way BIL/GPG works - it is not a 'procedural error' as you imply.

Again you are possibly too young to know, but it was never the intention of BIL to own all of Thistle Hotels, or Mt Charlotte Hotels as it was then. BIL were forced into making what they thought was a low takeover offer for the shares (under the UK takeovers code) because they crossed a threshold shareholding. The market tanked during the offer period and they got a flood of unexpected acceptances, which meant they ended up rather unexpectedly -eventually- owning the whole thing. You then say the BIL policy was to 'hold until they recover', but that is utterly wrong. BIL actually sold down a cornerstone stake to Quek Lek Chan (sp?), the current owner quite early on.

You come on all haughty and supercillious with your post AMR. But in this instance it is actually *you* are the newbie who obviously does not have the slightest idea what he is talking about!

SNOOPY

discl: former BIL shareholder.

[The Doctor]

'unexpected acceptances'!!!!....P.Collins screwed up big time.

[macduffy]

'unexpected acceptances'!!!!....P.Collins screwed up big time.

Precisely!

It was a case of " If you don't know the rules, you shouldn't be playing the game."

:D

[gulf]

another problem GPG directors are out of touch with the real world -high overheads - large director payments-not in touch with shareholders -can't even hold a NZ investors meeting.Did they have the ability to run a Coats size business ??? It has never really turned around.

[BRICKS]

another problem GPG directors are out of touch with the real world -high overheads - large director payments-not in touch with shareholders -can't even hold a NZ investors meeting.Did they have the ability to run a Coats size business ??? It has never really turned around.

YOU are so RIGHT young GULF never an attempt to to hold a meeting even just for information talk should be taken up with directors more so now than EVER..

[gulf]

I did ask them to hold a meeting in Auckland -reply we are a UK -you know !!

[BRICKS]

I did ask them to hold a meeting in Auckland -reply we are a UK -you know !!

Sorry about that gulf but it was the first line of defence you tried, did you know that outside Mr B`s office door is a sine which says "Please do not disturb as i like things
the way they are." He live`s very well in Sydney and travels the world free i mean on BIZ for GPG.

I feel another approach is REQUIRED.., by the current shareholders of GPG..

[Dr_Who]

another problem GPG directors are out of touch with the real world -high overheads - large director payments-not in touch with shareholders -can't even hold a NZ investors meeting.Did they have the ability to run a Coats size business ??? It has never really turned around.

Whats new? All the investment bankers are in fantasyland (abit like Disneyland, but you take the public for a ride), that's why most of them are out of a job and the companies are falling like flies. Must be embarrassing to say at a party that one was an ex investment banker.

Does BRY sound familiar to you?

[winner69]

GPG interest in CRS taking another hit post result ... ouch

That Coats has to be worth a lot less than what GPG ae saying ..... esp after what has happened around the world the last few weeks

[BRICKS]

GPG interest in CRS taking another hit post result ... ouch

That Coats has to be worth a lot less than what GPG ae saying ..... esp after what has happened around the world the last few weeks

WELL as stated before 50cents is now a big possible that CSR holding is costing millions
its a big chunk and they keep buying NEWCASLE EXCHANGE don't know what for because
its not a real EXCHANGE..

[Awamoa]

Each day the shareprice gets closer to zero.I am not happy.

[BRICKS]

Each day the shareprice gets closer to zero.I am not happy.

Lets say 50 cents and still they don't tell the TRUTH.. ever..

[gulf]

what do you mean they don't tell the truth -they tell you nothing !

[bull....]

Coats being their biggest and worst investment will keep dragging the share price down.

[BRICKS]

Coats being their biggest and worst investment will keep dragging the share price down.

AND thats NO bull you have been TOLD..

[BRICKS]

AND that's NO bull you have been TOLD..

TO keep the market informed GPG in AU has hit 52 cents ozzie..

[777]

You sound delighted Bricks.

[BRICKS]

You sound delighted Bricks.

IT appears you don't know what to say, as your money DISAPPEARS just note about
CSR is $1.04 AU..

[winner69]

I hadn't realised how far TUR had gone down as well .... since the Jan 7 GPG update TUR has fallen from 155 to 125 and thats $20m down for GPG to go with the $40m they are down on CSR

Coats valuation was based on GPG book value of assets of $2.4 billion less debt/minorities of $1.6 billion giving the 'prudent valuation' of $744 million ..... if the assets fall in value by 33% Coats is worth what ..... zilch

Does one count the big pile of cash $800m separately ..... or is set aside to bail out Coats? .... goodness knows and only the wise old men in Tony and Ron can tell us.

Also see they didn't have much luck with their little investment in FPA which was worth $5.5m on Jan 7th when FPA shareprice was $1.27 (wonder what they did pay originally?) so that little investment is down 60% as well

Is it all coming to a messy end a bit before thry intended?

Who knows

[BRICKS]

POSTED in AU but NOT NZ, CAPRAL [ALUM] lost $130.787 million and needed and got
a $10 million standby loan to 2011 because they where not sure if GE would pull
the plug on current loan they are having troubles as WELL..

[warthog]

Remember the Scottish national flower!

[BRICKS]

Remember the Scottish national flower!

DONT tell us your a SCOTCH pig.. with a McDUCK..

[warthog]

DONT tell us your a SCOTCH pig.. with a McDUCK..

Er, way back when maybe, but the hog's post was far too subtle for you BRICKS.

[macduffy]

Er, way back when maybe, but the hog's post was far too subtle for you BRICKS.

Now let's not go there - back to a certain hotel chain and the misery attached thereto!

;)

[bermuda]

Now let's not go there - back to a certain hotel chain and the misery attached thereto!

;)

Hey Guys,
We are part of a club.
Sell up and buy some VPE's.
This is not a ramp. just something that is a lot better than GPG.

[warthog]

Now let's not go there - back to a certain hotel chain and the misery attached thereto!

;)

Good catch Macduffy - watch and learn BRICKS.

[gulf]

Result better than expected (or not as bad)

[winner69]

U guys also getting 1 FREE share for every 10 as well ... that'll help

[macduffy]

U guys also getting 1 FREE share for every 10 as well ... that'll help

Not really!
Just spreads the jam more thinly.

[Balance]

Bunch of grossly under-paid, under-rated and right-on fund managers. Coats will be worth $5 billion in a few year's time and GPG's sp will be $6.50. Don't miss the opportunity of a lifetime.

[winner69]

GPG even outperformed the great Buffett ..... the GPG and BRK charts look awfully similar .... but the GPG decline of 60% since last May is some wealth destruction (BRK down only 44% in same time)

[winner69]

For those wanting 50 cents tomorrow could be the day ... but that day could be never

[bermuda]

For those wanting 50 cents tomorrow could be the day ... but that day could be never

Methinks GPG is grossly undervalued but I wouldnt be betting on its trading in this environment. And I would sure want a detailed INDEPENDENT report on Coates.

Got out at 79 cents because of the lessons I have learnt from fellow posters.For which many thanks.

If the audit shows a clean bill of health then buy all you can. But it has to have today's worsening economic climate factored in....and be completed by an auditor of at least 60 years of age.

[winner69]

http://business.theage.com.au/business/guinness-peat-shares-hit-rough-gravel-20090302-8mg7.html

One of their more recent investments broken

[winner69]

Methinks GPG is grossly undervalued but I wouldnt be betting on its trading in this environment. And I would sure want a detailed INDEPENDENT report on Coates.

Got out at 79 cents because of the lessons I have learnt from fellow posters.For which many thanks.

If the audit shows a clean bill of health then buy all you can. But it has to have today's worsening economic climate factored in....and be completed by an auditor of at least 60 years of age.


You get told off on Sharescene Bermuda ..... funny but sad eh ..... Boundless doesn't like you questioning the $2 valuation he has on GPG .... poor soul

[Dr_Who]

I ve never liked GPG.

They are making the same mistakes at BRY.

[croesus]

Have also purchased,..... picking a bounce this week.... but a lot /all will depend on the DOW.

[Arbitrage]

Some bounce as a result of this announcement:

Guinness Peat Group Plc - Announcements

Guinness Peat Group plc

Notification of Major Interests in Shares

Guinness Peat Group plc (“the Company�) announces that it has been informed by Accident Compensation Corporation (“ACC�) of New Zealand that ACC has increased its beneficial interest to 57,063,737 ordinary shares in the Company (12 August 2008: 44,099,515 shares), which equates to 4.03% (3.11%) of the Company’s total voting rights.

Richard Russell

Company Secretary
Guinness Peat Group plc
Tel: 44 7484 3370

3 March 2009

[BRICKS]

IT appears that the ACC make mistakes as well but they are backing Mr B.. ??

[Arbitrage]

....and so it seems do others. The bounce continues for the time being....

[winner69]

Fancy gun Macquaries analyst Taylor mentioned a growing risk of breaching banking convenants ...... somethign one is not to say these days

Anyway he says GPG net asset is 89 cents/share

Myabe it was that report that got the shareprice moving again



CUTTING ITS CLOTH

Stock Takes has been following Guinness Peat Group's problems with big investment Coats.

Macquarie analyst Lyall Taylor this week also referred to "a growing risk" that Coats will breach banking covenants. Coats has US$359 million ($714 million) in net debt, as part of a US$625 million facility it negotiated in May last year.

Stock Takes went to GPG director and Coats chairman Gary Weiss with queries about the banking covenants and other concerns raised by local investors.

Coats' financial position was sound, Weiss said. It had complied with its banking covenants to date and beyond that: "Coats' plan for 2009 shows compliance and January trading is in line with plan." Weiss said Coats was "cutting its cloth to meet the subdued trading environment".

"We're not sitting still. We've taken considerable steps to reduce our operating costs, improve working capital, and we believe we are gaining market share at the expense of some of our weaker competitors."

He said Coats' industrial threads division had performed well under the conditions and the biggest issue facing the company was its European crafts division. If you took out the loss there, "Coats would have had a good result".

While the market has shown some signs of becoming fed up with GPG, selling it down to an all-time low of 54c, it has recovered somewhat in recent days, yesterday closing 6c higher at 63c.

But even by Macquarie's revised reckoning it is still trading well below its net asset value of 89c.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10560216&pnum=3

[Balance]

Doing just fine with this pup Ph. The "insidious practice" you refer too means I have a nice stake and are past the break even point. Thanks for sharing (even if the manner was so pompous it had me ROTFLMAO).

Bought Price Cost
10,000 1.00 10,000
20,000 0.90 18,000
30,000 0.80 24,000
40,000 0.70 28,000
50,000 0.60 30,000
60,000 0.50 30,000

Total
210000 0.66 140,000

Current value @ 70 cents ... $147,000 ... By understanding the value of GPG and not panicing the fundie is now in a profit position. By $7,000 or about 5%.

Note that the pyramid above uses a "constant $" pattern which is not my preferred method and is what I'd call a 'tall, thin' pyramid. Good for extreme price movements as we have seen with GPG. A 'tall, fat bottom' pyramid is more usual but also more risky. In GPG's case like this:

Bought Price Cost
10,000 1.00 10,000
20,000 0.90 18,000
40,000 0.80 32,000
80,000 0.70 56,000
160,000 0.60 96,000
320,000 0.50 160,000

Total
630,000 0.59 372,000

Current value @ 70 cents ... $441,000 ... $69,000 or about 18% ... not bad for less than six months.

Now take a longer term view and say that in 2 years time GPG is back to real value ... lets say $1.50 ... $945,000 ... a $573,000 net gain ... or about 250% ... Not bad at all!

Setting stops does make sense if you're small enough to wing in and out. Jolly hard though when you're playing with larger sums and worried that the tax department might change their mind and say you're actually a trader!

"The chartist knows the price of everything and the value of nothing". (Sorry oscar.)

So which pyramid is your real position?

[winner69]

I was greedy .... my buy order at 50 cents is still not filled ..... did any actually change hands at 50 cents anyway?

[Phaedrus]

Which pyramid is the real one?
Neither. Both are hypothetical.

Take a look at Belg's real actions :- Every single one of these positions is well underwater.

Belg would have been FAR better off keeping his money in his pocket and not taking ANY of these positions. The lesson here? Don't buy downtrending stocks!

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/GPGbelg314.gif

Never add to a losing position.

[Phaedrus]

Have you bought ph?Yes, Belg, I have.

I too was lucky enough to buy a large number of GPG at 50 cents, but sold them yesterday for 77 cents. That's a gain of over 50% in 10 days. Not bad eh?

It's what's known as a "Tui" trade.

[BRICKS]

I was greedy .... my buy order at 50 cents is still not filled ..... did any actually change hands at 50 cents anyway?


W69 you put an order in, NO.. but not to worry you where saved by the BELL...

[croesus]

Got some at 61c but to my chagrin sold to early at 66c... nice clean quick profit albeit in hindsight to quick................ still have a concern at that Damocles sword by the name of Coats

[The Doctor]

if ACC are loading up...its a dog guaranteed...they really should not be allowed to gamble.

[Balance]

ACC desperately trying to hold up the value of its other GPG shares by buying more. Trying to avoid Nick Smith firing the whole lot or putting the funds out to other fund managers to manage.

Coats will wrap GPG into the cold ground.

[warthog]

The hog doesn't think it is as simple as some here do.

ACC investment isn't just or two people. Their investment decisions are diverse and not restricted to just a few individuals. Yes there is oversight but there is also some degree of autonomy given performance record. A fair bit of money management going on too.

So maybe somebody at ACC knows more about GPG than Balance, Doc, BRICKS et al?

We shall see.

disc: no holdings.

[777]

Interesting that GPG depth is unavailable on DB's website. No problem with other stocks.

[Contrarian]

Gidday
It has gone ex 1 pence dividend.

NZX & brokers don't seem to be big on displaying Trading Basis.

[777]

Ops, should have figured that out for myself. Thanks.

[777]

if ACC are loading up...its a dog guaranteed...they really should not be allowed to gamble.

From todays announcement

Guinness Peat Group plc ("the Company") announces that it has been informed
by Accident Compensation Corporation ("ACC") of New Zealand that ACC has
reduced its beneficial interest to 56,363,737 ordinary shares in the Company
(3 March 2009: 57,063,737 shares), which equates to 3.98% (4.03%) of the
Company's total voting rights.

[The Doctor]

have to rerate the 'team' at ACC ,they aren't doing too bad!

[dragonz]

Well I'm in @ 73cents for the short term. Once ACC have finished thier selling program we may see a rise in the shareprice.

Last year I was looking at exiting CDI at a slight loss when the price shot up to 44 cents. I ended up with an unexpected heathy profit thanks to ACC buying up large. The spp sits at 25 cents today.

This also happened with another stock I was holding (NZO or AIA) so more then happy to do the exact opposite as these clowns.

Thank you ACC. Makes paying your excessive charges so much easier. ;)

PS The sooner the government privatises this industry the better.

[warthog]

Thank you ACC. Makes paying your excessive charges so much easier. ;)

PS The sooner the government privatises this industry the better.

Interestingly, ACC does significantly better than any similar organisation anywhere on the planet.

Not that the hog doesn't think ACC needs a rev-up. They absolutely do after such a long period with the same faces in power, but leaving the market to cherry-pick the ACC remit wouldn't be a good idea. Better reform than allow the private sector to stuff this one up. Some people just need to get it into their heads that the market doesn't sort everything out, especially when the market is so small. Don't believe the hog? Why are New Zealanders paying more to Australian banks for their mortgages than Australians pay to their own banks?

[Contrarian]

Gidday

Apart from Coats having debt of $1.6 billion which could be cut in half from GPG $800 mill in the bank, GPG has no other bank debt, Ron has long avoided banks as they are fair weather friends, as many other corporates are finding out.
I suppose we could argue with hindsight that Coats wasn't the best move with manufacturing being cut, but hey, we expect GPG to invest & work the money so have to take the ups & downs along the way.

[macduffy]

I don't think that investors in GPG object to the ups and downs inherent in this type of business. What has got a lot of people worried though is the very big bet on Coats and the possible adverse effect on GPG if the bet doesn't come off.
Rightly or wrongly, memories of BRY's big bet on Mt Charlotte Hotels linger with many investors, despite the main player in that episode not appearing these days on the GPG team list.

Disc: Still hold a few GPG but taking cash dividends these days.

;)

[neopoleII]

if coats can survive the next 2 - 3 years, people will crawl out from under the rocks and start refreshing their wardrobes etc.
if coats does survive this period, GPG will go gang busters 4 to 5 years from now.

now is the time to buy if you believe in ifs.

im still iffing.

[Awamoa]

if coats can survive the next 2 - 3 years, people will crawl out from under the rocks and start refreshing their wardrobes etc.
if coats does survive this period, GPG will go gang busters 4 to 5 years from now.

now is the time to buy if you believe in ifs.

im still iffing.

I am not sure about your 4 to 5 year timeframe.
GPG have a 5 year exemption from the Foreign Dividend tax rules and we must be at least 2 years into that.
Also didnt Ron Brierley indicate a plan to wind the company up within that period?

[777]

Update out by GPG this morning.

Estimated book value of NZ$1.41 per share. Indications are that Coats is still trading reasonably well considering current environment.

[Arbitrage]

Here is the breakdown:



GUINNESS PEAT GROUP PLC - MARKET UPDATE

The company’s profile has not changed greatly since the 22 December 2008 update.

The main emphasis in the current year has been to develop exit options to maximise the
realisation of those investments which no longer have future potential for GPG. Also, to
examine new prospects in the context of changed market conditions. In retrospect, we
could have been more aggressive in pursuing new opportunities in earlier months but
caution was the overriding influence.

So far, there has been one material divestment (MYOB) and three new holdings, all of
which are showing positive returns (although that is not necessarily the preferred
outcome in the initial phase of a long term investment strategy).

Our principal operating subsidiary, Coats, has obviously been adversely affected by the
economic downturn but to date, trading has held up as well as could be expected.

Attached is a detailed internal valuation of GPG as at 4/5/09. It is unaudited and E &
OE but is the management working model and unlikely to contain significant error.

COATS

The book value of Coats is NZ$782 million comprising:

NZ$m
Gross assets 2,597
Less creditors minorities & provisions (1,815)
Net book value NZ$782

The ultimate realisation value of Coats is considered to be significantly in excess of
this figure.


UK SHARE PORTFOLIO Share price EURm
8.9% x Adnams "B" 91.50 2.3
5.9% x AH Medical Properties 0.17 0.6
4.2% x Ashley House 0.72 1.4
26.2% x Autologic 0.24 4.0
4.1% x Brookwell 0.40 0.3
1.9% x Camper & Nicholson 0.25 0.2
3.7% x Creative Entertainment 0.00 0.1
6.6% x Daniel Thwaites 1.55 6.5
15.2% x Dawson International 0.03 1.0
11.3% x Dickinson Legg 0.18 0.7
2.8% x Fiberweb 0.52 1.8
5.4% x M J Gleeson 0.82 2.3
14.4% x Inspired Gaming Group 0.03 0.3
5.5% x Inspired Gaming Prefs 0.37 1.8
6.5% x Jersey Electricity "A" 70.00 2.7
6.4% x Jersey New Water Works 35.00 0.6
1.1% x M & G Equity 0.01 0.0
7.0% x Nationwide Accident Repair 0.95 2.8
27.7% x Newbury Racecourse 9.25 8.2
3.1% x Shepherd Neame "A" 8.00 2.8
1.1% x Sweet China 0.04 0.0
6.0% x Sysmedia 0.01 0.0
5.7% x Third Advance Value 0.07 0.1
10.9% x 333 Holdings 1.00 0.3
13.7% x Young & Co's Brewery "A" 4.85 19.3
33.7% x Young & Co's Brewery "NV" 3.95 25.5
Two undisclosed listed companies 10.2
EUR95.8m
=NZ$250.95m


AUSTRALIAN SHARE PORTFOLIO Share price A$m
7.7% x A V Jennings 0.33 7.0
71.1% x Canberra Investment Corp 0.68 57.6
9.8% x Capilano Honey 1.25 0.6
75.6% x Capral 0.08 23.5
55.8% x Capral Notes 58.80 16.4
4.7% x CSR 1.31 80.1
19.9% x eServglobal 0.43 14.7
13.0% x Farm Pride Foods 0.30 2.2
5.3% x GME Resources 0.06 0.8
5.0% x IOOF Holdings 4.06 13.8
24.0% x Maryborough Sugar 1.77 19.8
7.6% x MetalsX 0.12 10.8
26.7% x MMC Contrarian 0.41 15.6
12.8% x NSX 0.18 1.7
24.2% x Peanut Co of Australia 4.20 7.3
44.4% x Rattoon Holdings 0.12 26.9
4.2% x Ridley Corp 0.80 10.3
8.7% x Symex Holdings 0.43 4.8
17.0% x Tandou 0.25 3.8
25.0% x Tooth & Co 0.02 0.6
Sundries including Tourism Property Group,
Tasmanian Pure Foods and 2 undisclosed listed investments 17.7
A$336.0m
=NZ$430.75m

AUSTRALIAN TRADING SUBSIDIARIES AND JOINT VENTURES
Australian Country Spinners (50%)
Greens General Foods (72.5%)
Gosford Quarry (100%)
Tafmo (56%)


These companies have an aggregate book value of A$57.0m. Minor progress has been made in
terms of cash flow and asset divestments but as profitability has not yet been achieved,
no value has been attributed for the purpose of this update.

In the case of Tafmo, losses have been a necessary product of the development and initial
marketing of the company's point-of-sale technology. This is making good progress
towards break even, after which the potential for increasing profitability is
considerable.


NEW ZEALAND SHARE PORTFOLIO
Share Price NZ$m
1.3% x ASB Capital Prefs 0.77 3.5
4.1% x Allied Farmers 0.49 0.4
1.5% x Fisher & Paykel Appliances 0.48 2.1
35.0% x Tower 1.40 95.0
19.4% x Turners Auctions 0.80 4.3
65.6% x Turners & Growers 1.36 93.9
NZ$199.2m

SINGAPORE SHARE PORTFOLIO Share Price S$m
0.3% x Isetan (Singapore) 2.96 0.4
17.3% x Pertama Holdings 0.21 8.7
S$9.1m
=NZ$10.82m

GPG SIMPLIFIED BALANCE SHEET AT 4/5/09
NZ$m
Cash at Bank 825
Coats 782
Share Portfolio -
UK 251
Australia 431
NZ 199
SQ 11
Total Assets 2,499
Net creditors (45)
Contingencies, say (65)
Capital Notes (390)
NET EQUITY NZ$1,999

1.42 bn shares on issue = NZ$1.41 per share

Ron Brierley

Ron Brierley
Chairman
15 May 2009
New Zealand Contact:

Tony Gibbs
Director

+64 9 379 8888

[Stranger_Danger]

I've had the odd bit of success following GPG's strategy (TWR/AUW in particular) but, golly, do they own some junk at the moment.

[Arbitrage]

If they announce the sale of Coats Ltd one day, the share price will jump.

[BRICKS]

10% today ... Happy holder. :)

CUT and run like HELL..

[Lego_Man]

Yeah, i'd be booking some profit if i'd got in at close to 60. Wonder if this is one of Shephard's dogs?

[777]

Yeah, i'd be booking some profit if i'd got in at close to 60. Wonder if this is one of Shephard's dogs?


With NZ$825,000,000 in the bank?

[macduffy]

Certainly not a shepherd's dog but Cash would be their best performer at present.

;)

[Awamoa]

I have just seen an article in todays Press where they estimate GPG has approx 58 cents per share in cash.
This provides a pretty good buffer at the current share price.

[lewinsky]

I am struggling to work out why they have so many holdings. I exited GPG some time ago because I didn't like the high exposure to Coates. I thought that their modus operandi was to work with companies like Tower to turn the company around and extract value. How can you do that when you have so many holdings of around 2%.
Unless they have a trading strategy?
The holdings in Shepherds Neame and Youngs make sense. Both good ales!!
Good to see they are holding a good cash buffer.

[winner69]

I am struggling to work out why they have so many holdings. I exited GPG some time ago because I didn't like the high exposure to Coates. I thought that their modus operandi was to work with companies like Tower to turn the company around and extract value. How can you do that when you have so many holdings of around 2%.
Unless they have a trading strategy?
The holdings in Shepherds Neame and Youngs make sense. Both good ales!!
Good to see they are holding a good cash buffer.

But all that cash seems an embarrasment to them .... not doing much for shareholders is it .... getting some return on the $800m cash while they pay interest on $400m to notes holders isn't all that flash is it

As Ron says 'we could have been more aggressive .......'

Not doing much with cash ti invest and perceived over valuation of Coats = langishig shareprice

[Arbitrage]

From Stuff this morning:

"Investment veteran Ron Brierley has put retirement on hold.

Sir Ron announced nearly a year ago that he would stand down as chairman of the investment company he founded, Guinness Peat Group, in 2010.

However, at GPG's annual meeting in London at the end of last week, Sir Ron said those plans were on hold - and he was going nowhere.

GPG has previously signalled a "return of value" to shareholders in 2010 to coincide with the 20th anniversary of the company in its current form. Sir Ron indicated that this would be a good time to stand down, therefore.

But more recent announcements from Sir Ron have thrown doubt on the timing of such a "value return".

Sir Ron told the annual meeting that the global economic situation had put his retirement plans on hold.

The key to GPG being able to return capital to shareholders would be selling its biggest investment, international threadmaker Coats. GPG appeared to be close to making a move to sell the company last year, but any such plans were blown out of the water by the massive crisis in financial markets that erupted in September/October.

While GPG has yet to officially say the value return won't happen next year, it would appear unlikely the company will look to sell Coats till greater stability has returned to global markets.

Coats, which had been trading well in the early part of last year, was knocked by the global turbulence. Its sales plummeted 20 percent in the last quarter of 2008.

In a recent update to the market Sir Ron said that Coats had "obviously been adversely affected" by the downturn, "but to date trading has held up as well as could be expected". Even in today's market, Coats is believed to be worth considerably more than the $782 million GPG has it valued at on its books.

The annual meeting heard that GPG is planning to appoint another non-executive director, Ron Langley. At the moment Sir Ron is the only non-executive director on the board.

Langley, in his 60s is a long-time associate of Sir Ron and other GPG directors such as Gary Weiss .

He was chairman of American investment company PICO Holdings from 1995 to 2007 and is currently a private investor.

Meanwhile all resolutions at the GPG annual meeting were passed - but there were fairly substantial votes against some of them.

The biggest vote against was the proposal to receive and approve the directors' remuneration report. The vote was passed, with 424.4 million shares supporting the motion and 144.6 million against. Nearly 55.5 million votes were withheld.

Ad Feedback GPG has previously received substantial publicity for the amount of bonuses its executive directors can receive in years of strong profitability. With the addition of bonuses GPG's top four executives two years ago collected the equivalent of over $20 million. That year GPG posted an after-tax profit of over $300 million. In the last year, however, none of the executives received bonuses as the company made a loss."

[bermuda]

If Coats suffered a 20% sales drop in 4Q08, you would have to bet that 1Q09 was worse.

No wonder Ron is not stepping down.

[The Doctor]

a potpourri of junk....what a mess.

[LJB]

Just be thankful that most of the pot pouri of rubbish sells 'widgets' and not 'complex investment products'.

[BRICKS]

Just be thankful that most of the potpourri of rubbish sells 'widgets' and not 'complex investment products'.


WHY be thankful,, WHO collects rubbish,, WHO has the NZX in the back pocket,, WHO..

[777]

Hey Bricks, as a matter of interest, do you own any shares? If so are you positive on any of them?

[BRICKS]

Hey Bricks, as a matter of interest, do you own any shares? If so are you positive on any of them?

777 you never learn,, DONT own any GPG ever and never WILL..

[777]

Read the question Bricks, ANY shares in any company.

[BRICKS]

read the question bricks, any shares in any company.

how much money do you have in the bank i will tell you mine,, grow up..

ONLY for 777 GPG is a DUD..

[777]

Bricks it just that you only have negative comments on companies. If you don't invest in shares at all then your opinions have less validity. I think your last post pretty much sums you up. I will now just ignore your comments.

[Contrarian]

gidday

Goes ex tommorow, look for 9% fall which is ok.

[777]

gidday

Goes ex tommorow, look for 9% fall which is ok.


It is a shame though that there has been a steady retreat from 80c as the ex date approaches.

[BRICKS]

. I will now just ignore your comments.

DEAR 777 your learning at last that GPG is a DUD..

[ScrappyO]

I see that GPG has taken a 10% stake in BBP(ASX)...Risky stuff.

[macduffy]

Yes, one would think that anything with a "Babcock and Brown" in the name is pretty risky these days!
But a 10% stake is only $7m in a company with a market cap of about $72m. ( And $7m is less than 1% of GPG's own M Cap.)

[biker]

I see that GPG has taken a 10% stake in BBP(ASX)...Risky stuff.

It would be nice to think they could recoup some of their huge losses on Capral with a successful punt on BBP. I have held BBP for a while at substantially less than they paid and the reality is that with GPG buying, I should probably be selling.
BBP is certainly not for the faint hearted and not the sort of company I thought GPG would be into. Having said that, if they can get their debt sorted, they have some pretty good assets and 10c may, in the medium term, turn out to be very cheap. A much bigger if though, than I ever thought GPG would contemplate, even if it is only $7 mill.

[Balance]

I cannot remember one good play by GPG since Tower. It's all been disasters.

Where is GPG with FPA? NPX? Instead, they blew hundreds of millions with Capral, CSR etc.

Share price of 77 cents same as in 2001.

Share price adjusted for annual 'get them happy 1 for 10 bonus issue'.

You get the share bonus, the management get the real bonuses $$$$$!

[macduffy]

Have to agree with Balance on this.

Personally, I'm just waiting for an opportune time to sell the last of my GPG. A pity in a way, as they've been a good performer for those of us who were in at the original float, have collected the annual 1 for 10 bonus and unloaded a few along the way. But too many dogs in the portfolio now and too many freebies for management and directors.

[BRICKS]

Have to agree with Balance on this.

Personally, I'm just waiting for an opportune time to sell the last of my GPG. A pity in a way, as they've been a good performer for those of us who were in at the original float, have collected the annual 1 for 10 bonus and unloaded a few along the way. But too many dogs in the portfolio now and too many freebies for management and directors.


TUT, TUT,, do I hear the troops are complaining about the state of the SHIP..

[macduffy]

Just being realistic, BRICKS.
GPG have been a good money-spinner in the past. Not so great now, though, but not a disaster for those who were in at the float and have had holdings inflated by compounding 1 for 10 bonus issues.

:)

[LJB]

how much money do you have in the bank i will tell you mine,, grow up..

ONLY for 777 GPG is a DUD..

Bricks' reading comprehesion isn't too flash. The justifiable question he/she was asked and one that remains unanswered, was whether he/she owned any shares, not what the value of the shares was. Such a condescending response in the form of "Grow up" is hardly conducive to intelligent and mature debate on this forum. Leave the petty condescension to your family and/or unfortunate employees. Elaboration on the abbreviated rehetoric that characterises Bricks' posts would also be of assistance in making sense of these posts.

[BRICKS]

Bricks' reading comprehesion isn't too flash. The justifiable question he/she was asked and one that remains unanswered, was whether he/she owned any shares, not what the value of the shares was. Such a condescending response in the form of "Grow up" is hardly conducive to intelligent and mature debate on this forum. Leave the petty condescension to your family and/or unfortunate employees. Elaboration on the abbreviated rehetoric that characterises Bricks' posts would also be of assistance in making sense of these posts.

TUT, TUT,, what big words for a junior member LJB so just for you GPG IS A DUD..

[LJB]

LOSE the chip Brick..

[BRICKS]

LOSE the chip Brick..

WELL for a junior member you have to learn, manners and what do you not understand

about the good dud GPG..

[Lego_Man]

So, to get this straight, people's comments here are judged by the number of posts they have already accumulated?

Smacks of dick-measuring to me.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

LJB Do not take any notice of BRICKS his name tells it all

[Arbitrage]

The GPG share price on the LSE has gone from around 35p to 60p since March. Not a bad performance during these uncertain times.

[BRICKS]

LJB Do not take any notice of BRICKS his name tells it all

YOU would not BUY GPG your to busy checking Smith's CITY for bargains..

[macduffy]

The GPG share price on the LSE has gone from around 35p to 60p since March. Not a bad performance during these uncertain times.

I don't think so!

It traded at 32.5p last night. At 60p there would be a tremendous Arbitrage between London and NZX SP of 70c!

;)

[Balance]

But it has gone from 52 to 70 in short order ... a 35% gain ... ;)

And fallen from 91 to 52 in short order too? 43% loss and 70 is still 23% lower than start of year.

GPG is supposed to do very well in the depressed environment but alas, GPG is now like BIL - fat, lazy, sluggish, fat cats.

Can't even beat a fast food company like RBD - up 50% since Jan 1st.

Or a retailer like Michael Hill. Cavalier could teach those fat cats a thing or two.

You get the bonus shares, management gets the real bonuses $$$$$.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

BRICKS I do not have to buy GPG shares. They Just keep increasing my Holding very nice profit on what I originally paid for them. Far better than the Smiths City shares there management have done very little since 1987.

[Balance]

BRICKS I do not have to buy GPG shares. They Just keep increasing my Holding very nice profit on what I originally paid for them. Far better than the Smiths City shares there management have done very little since 1987.

And share price* today is still same as 2001. And company looks more and more like BIL everyday.

You get the bonus shares, management gets the real $$$ bonuses.

*Adjusted for bonus issues.

[bermuda]

And share price* today is still same as 2001. And company looks more and more like BIL everyday.

You get the bonus shares, management gets the real $$$ bonuses.

*Adjusted for bonus issues.

I looked at some shares my wife had and sold them at 79 cents. Thet fell to 60 odd and then climbed back. Coats (es) has me worried. They could have a bad 1Q2009. I dont mean to downramp but please sell now and invest in Queensland CSG.

DYOR.
BUL or STX would be a great start.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Balance I was just getting at Bricks and his holding of Smiths City that he thinks the Sun Shines out of. I should have sold a few years back but did not want to pay the huge tax bill at the time. I am still probally better off by Holding.

[Balance]

Balance I was just getting at Bricks and his holding of Smiths City that he thinks the Sun Shines out of. I should have sold a few years back but did not want to pay the huge tax bill at the time. I am still probally better off by Holding.

Apologies, matey. Just putting GPG in perspective. Coats is going to hang GPG just as Mt Charlotte buried BIL's fate.

[Toddy]

Has anyone got the email address for Tony Gibbs or the GPG office.

Thanks

[macduffy]

Has anyone got the email address for Tony Gibbs or the GPG office.

Thanks

www.gpgplc.com

But the "contact us" on the website doesn't include an email address!

[Balance]

I remembered Sir Ron stating that he saw GPG being wound up on the right side of 2000 in the 1990s. Pity he did not as GPG is now just a benefit machine for the executives and GPG is riddled with bad investments and badly saddled with Coats, like BIL was with Mt Charlotte.

You get the bonus shares, they get the real $$$$ bonuses. Thanks for coming.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/brian-gaynor/news/article.cfm?a_id=14&objectid=10529713

[Contrarian]

Gidday Toddy

Are you in NZ or UK?
Here's the Akl office Ph number

Contacts:
Tony Gibbs (New Zealand) 00 64 9 379 8888

[Toddy]

Gidday Toddy

Are you in NZ or UK?
Here's the Akl office Ph number

Contacts:
Tony Gibbs (New Zealand) 00 64 9 379 8888

Thanks

NZ

[BRICKS]

IT is that BAB & BROWN will be delisted in AUG 2009 now whats going to happen to the
7 million share that GPG own could say down the DRAIN..

[Balance]

IT is that BAB & BROWN will be delisted in AUG 2009 now whats going to happen to the
7 million share that GPG own could say down the DRAIN..

An investment company like GPG owning another investment company (note - BNB is NO investment bank) - that's what GPG management gets up to these days. Just flat run out of ideas.

You get the bonus shares, they get the real $$$ bonuses.

Enjoy.

[macduffy]

IT is that BAB & BROWN will be delisted in AUG 2009 now whats going to happen to the
7 million share that GPG own could say down the DRAIN..

It's hardly news to formally delist a stock that's been worth nothing for several months now. Incidentally, are we sure that GPG still own 7m shares?

[biker]

Come on you guys. You can do better than this. It is BBP - Babcock and Brown Power , not BNB that GPG have a holding in. The difference is not rocket science.
BNB is worthless to shareholders, suspended and about to be delisted.
BBP has substantial assets and the looong shot possibility of showing outstanding gains from current levels. ( could be a little - r i s k - involved but it is still in business) and at around 10c worth a punt with a bit of loose-end cash IMHO.
Still surprised though, that GPG are punting on this one with shareholders money.

[Balance]

Come on you guys. You can do better than this. It is BBP - Babcock and Brown Power , not BNB that GPG have a holding in. The difference is not rocket science.
BNB is worthless to shareholders, suspended and about to be delisted.
BBP has substantial assets and the looong shot possibility of showing outstanding gains from current levels. ( could be a little - r i s k - involved but it is still in business) and at around 10c worth a punt with a bit of loose-end cash IMHO.
Still surprised though, that GPG are punting on this one with shareholders money.

As I stated, GPG's management plain flat out of ideas after blowing hundreds of millions on the likes of Capral and CSR.

Punting on BBP when GPG has 1.6 billion shares? Takes $16m profit to make 1 cent difference to NTA.

You get the bonus shares, they get the real $$$$ bonuses whilst blowing $$$$ down the gurgle.

ENJOY!

[Balance]

I see Mr Gibbs has exercised 4m options into shares at around 48 cents and flicked them on at 68 cents quick smart.

Good on him - nice bonus of $800,000.

You get the bonus shares, they get the real $$$$$ bonuses.

ENJOY!

[BRICKS]

I see Mr Gibbs has exercised 4m options into shares at around 48 cents and flicked them on at 68 cents quick smart.

Good on him - nice bonus of $800,000.

You get the bonus shares, they get the real $$$$$ bonuses.

ENJOY!

WELL thats nice for him but what about the loyal followers who bought them at 68 cents, one meeting BRICKS attented some years back heard a KIWI stand up and sayto the same directors he was a good KIWI and done and bought all the shares as required to NO avail at the time could not belive that he said it,, so today the MUD still flows...

[Balance]

Sell when directors sell. A golden rule generally right to follow.

Imagine how those investors who bought the shares at 68 cents feel now that they know it's Tony Gibbs they bought the shares from?

No wonder some are bailing out on the announcement.

You get the bonus issues, they get the real $$$$$$$$$$ bonuses.

ENJOY.

[Arbitrage]

GPG in the news:
http://business.smh.com.au/business/gpg-takes-fight-to-uk-brewer-20090707-dbu9.html

[macduffy]

... and doesn't seem to have as much influence with CSR as we might have thought!

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25748583-5005200,00.html

[Arbitrage]

Hopefully a demerger will happen but:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/australia/2579370/GPG-slams-CSR-board

[winner69]

GPG's next big investment coming up

http://business.smh.com.au/business/csr-seeks-major-shareholder-to-sweeten-the-deal-20090712-dhd5.html

Been angling for this for a while haven't they .... with their other suger investments make the Aussie sugar market theirs

GPG would be pissed off if a trade sale eventuated though

[BRICKS]

GPG's next big investment coming up

http://business.smh.com.au/business/csr-seeks-major-shareholder-to-sweeten-the-deal-20090712-dhd5.html

Been angling for this for a while haven't they .... with their other sugar investments make the Aussie sugar market theirs

GPG would be pissed off if a trade sale eventuated though


GPG is @ 5% is still only a small CSR holder and do not have any pull at ALL..

[voltage]

I have had these shares for a long time and very disappointed with their performance.
Is it time to bail out now?

[bermuda]

I have had these shares for a long time and very disappointed with their performance.
Is it time to bail out now?

Yes,
I cannot see 1Q2009 Coates sales being above the poor 4Q2008 level. It is going to a long slog.

[Snapper]

I thought my selling at 75 would trigger an uptrend but no. I don't much improvement for some time (years) so better opportunities elsewhere.

[Contrarian]

Gidday
It's highly likely Coates stiching is in the seats of The greatwall utes on the market, Together with the Buffett backed chinese electric car maker, Infact the market leader of stiched furniture,curtains,car seats, plane seats, sneakers,red army uniforms, walmart pillow........in the world,

[BRICKS]

last chance coming up ....

That's nice whats coming UP.............

[Arbitrage]

Nice prediction of a share price rise Belgarion.

[Arbitrage]

Not sure whether SKC determines GPG's share price.
GPG used to follow the ftse 250 fairly closely.
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=GPG.L&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=&c=%5EFTMC
but the Coats factor, amongst other things, seems to have created a drag on that correlation in recent times.

[Arbitrage]

That enthusiasm has continued today. There are a stack of buyers.

[Arbitrage]

Any suggested reasons for the share price surge?

[macduffy]

Any suggested reasons for the share price surge?

I suspect it's just the better tone to the general market.

But if it were to continue to firm against the trend it might presage some better news, particularly on the Coats scene?

[Arbitrage]

It won't be profitability at Coats as the retail scene is still depressed. Fingers crossed for a sell off.

[winner69]

Macquaries recently lifted their one year target price from 69 to 74

Accordinging to a little story in The Independent their analyst Lyall Taylor bekieves that Coats half year result and outlook wilb particularly weak and is forecasting a loss of US$12m odd for the period. He reckons that Western apparel is yet to show any signs of stabalisation in the market. He uses a carrting value of Coats in his workings of US$300m

He reckons GPG NAV is 98 cents but doesn't believe it should trade anywhere NAV as GPG is a 'high cost vehicle' with management costs averaging 1.8% over the last 6 years,

That high management cost affecting the share price I agree with ... just think what the NPV of that 1.8% cost really is .... heaps

[winner69]

See GPG taken a 10% stake in Ridley Corp for A$26m odd ... a fray into the animal feed market

Ridley was subject to takeover activty last year .... wily old Ron onto another winner?

Alraedy made 20% by the looks of it
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=RIC&E=ASX&N=559430

[BRICKS]

See GPG taken a 10% stake in Ridley Corp for A$26m odd ... a fray into the animal feed market

Ridley was subject to takeover activty last year .... wily old Ron onto another winner?

Alraedy made 20% by the looks of it
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=RIC&E=ASX&N=559430

RIC is always in problems in court in Canada , stock feeds you name it there had it
many people have thought this is a goer BRICKS held it for years with the same results
in the end just walked away.. But interesting thing is the Salt side all sorts very big
but lacks money you mite have noticed GPG got there 10% holding very EASY..

[Snoopy]

RIC is always in problems in court in Canada , stock feeds you name it they had it
many people have thought this is a goer. BRICKS held it for years with the same results
in the end just walked away.. But interesting thing is the Salt side all sorts very big
but lacks money you mite have noticed GPG got there 10% holding very EASY..


For those GPG shareholders who know nothing about Ridley Corporation, may I correct a few misconceptions that have been spread on this thread, and in other places.

It is true that Ridley Corporation (RIC) had a US/Canadian listed arm (Ridley Inc). It is also true that some Canadian farmers had a go at Ridley Corp and Ridley Inc through the courts trying to make out that they their herd may have got mad cow disease through Ridley supplied stockfeed. However, nothing was ever proven. In the end all cases were settled out of court. Subsequently Ridley Corporation sold its interest in all of its US business to a private equity concern.

So despite what Bricks says and despite what the article in the NBR said yesterday, Ridley Corporation has *no interest in any business in the US or Canada* any more. The sale of Ridley Inc (the US arm) was completed on 5th November 2008, over nine months ago. How do I know this? Because I am a current Ridley Corporation shareholder. I am somewhat bemused that an article as sloppily researched as that NBR web article made it to press.

The proceeds from the sale of the US arm were used to pay down debt. So RIC is now only modestly geared.

The salt side of the business is currently way more profitable than the animal feed side of the business. The salt side of the business is also sitiing on a valuable land bank that Ridley are intending to develop as a joint venture. This is where things stand now at RIC.

SNOOPY

discl: hold RIC

[BRICKS]

Good on ya snoop dog - beat me to it.

RIC, IS STILL A DOG the court case may be settled but it cost them dearly and where glade to get out of the situation, Stock feeds have been suffering from drought and cost of
seed still not much better, the SALT just keeps moving on as there is not much competition the stock is not going broke and has very limited following in AU but there is NO short term quick profits to be MADE..

[BRICKS]

Bricks - The market doesn't agree with you - But your points are noted for future reference

JUST put RIC along with all your other dogs of GPG in the kennel and watch them GROW...

[gulf]

It took 2 months to get this reply !


I confirm that there are no current proposals to make any shareholder presentations.
However, as you may have noticed, in the current environment Sir Ron has adopted the practice of releasing regular Market Updates to keep shareholders informed of GPG's current investment portfolio.
Regards
Richard Russell

[777]

Have not seen any of these updates yet GPG up another 2c today.

[voltage]

I have been very disappointed with this company and have been a long term holder decided to sell and put money elsewhere.

[COLIN]

I have been very disappointed with this company and have been a long term holder decided to sell and put money elsewhere.
Why at this stage, Voltage, just when they seem to be in an upswing? You should have sold ages ago but, having held on, I doubt that now is the time to jettison them.

[winner69]

Ron says all is okey dokey and things are happening. Bugger the accounting losses .... just think of the potential and the intrinsic value in all these investments


GUINNESS PEAT GROUP PLC - MARKET UPDATE

The company's profile has not changed greatly since either of the two previous updates.

However, that rather disguises the fact that "things are happening" which are not yet ready for formal reporting. GPG is increasingly recovering a positive outlook on future prospects, both generally and specifically in respect of some investments which have been disappointing in the past.

GPG's Interim Report to 30 June will be issued at the end of the month and will again show an accounting loss for the period. This is mainly due to legacies from the earlier portfolio upheavals and our share of losses incurred by Coats and Capral (both of which have survived a very difficult half year).

The Board is still focussed on returning value to shareholders as announced in 2008 and even if it is not possible to adhere to the original timetable of 2010 it will certainly occur as soon as possible thereafter. In the meantime, we may have to endure another poor result at
31 December 2009.

Sharemarket conditions have greatly improved in recent months but we anticipate further repercussions from the "credit crisis" with opportunities to emerge which will be more favourable than over investing at the present time. GPG's balance sheet and liquidity continues to be a great strength in those circumstances.

Attached is a detailed internal valuation of GPG as at 10/8/09. It is unaudited and E & OE but is the management working model and unlikely to contain significant error.

Notwithstanding the accounting losses incurred in 2008/09, it is reassuring to note the company's net asset value as per the various Market Updates has held up reasonably well at NZ$1.19 (NZ$1.25 at 4/5/09 and NZ$1.18 at 22/12/08).

[SPARKY]

Sharemarket conditions have greatly improved in recent months but we anticipate further repercussions from the "credit crisis" with opportunities to emerge which will be more favourable than over investing at the present time. GPG's balance sheet and liquidity continues to be a great strength in those circumstances

Interesting comment, from GPG, suggests they believe the worst is not yet over.

[macduffy]

I didn't like the bit about Coats "...have survived a very difficult half year."

Implies that they went close to the brink?

[winner69]

I didn't like the bit about Coats "...have survived a very difficult half year."

Implies that they went close to the brink?

.... as if being put in the same sentence / context as Capral isn't bad enough

One thing ... they both 'survived' to live another day .... thats pretty good

[Contrarian]

GUINNESS PEAT GROUP PLC - MARKET UPDATE
The company’s profile has not changed greatly since either of the two previous updates.
However, that rather disguises the fact that “things are happening” which are not yet ready for
formal reporting. GPG is increasingly recovering a positive outlook on future prospects, both
generally and specifically in respect of some investments which have been disappointing in
the past.
GPG’s Interim Report to 30 June will be issued at the end of the month and will again show
an accounting loss for the period. This is mainly due to legacies from the earlier portfolio
upheavals and our share of losses incurred by Coats and Capral (both of which have survived
a very difficult half year).
The Board is still focussed on returning value to shareholders as announced in 2008 and even
if it is not possible to adhere to the original timetable of 2010 it will certainly occur as soon as
possible thereafter. In the meantime, we may have to endure another poor result at
31 December 2009.
Sharemarket conditions have greatly improved in recent months but we anticipate further
repercussions from the “credit crisis” with opportunities to emerge which will be more
favourable than over investing at the present time. GPG’s balance sheet and liquidity
continues to be a great strength in those circumstances.
Attached is a detailed internal valuation of GPG as at 10/8/09. It is unaudited and E & OE but
is the management working model and unlikely to contain significant error.
Notwithstanding the accounting losses incurred in 2008/09, it is reassuring to note the
company’s net asset value as per the various Market Updates has held up reasonably well at
NZ$1.19 (NZ$1.25 at 4/5/09 and NZ$1.18 at 22/12/08).
COATS
The book value of Coats is NZ$675 million comprising:
NZ$m
Gross assets 2,140
Less creditors minorities & provisions (1,465)
Net book value NZ$675
The ultimate realisation value of Coats is considered to be significantly in excess of this
figure.
UK SHARE PORTFOLIO Share price £m
8.9% x Adnams "B" 92.00 2.3
5.9% x AH Medical Properties 0.17 0.6
3.6% x Ashley House 0.81 1.4
26.2% x Autologic 0.33 5.5
4.1% x Brookwell 0.42 0.2
4.6% x Chrysalis Group 0.67 2.1
3.7% x Creative Entertainment 0.00 0.0
6.8% x Daniel Thwaites 1.62 7.0
15.2% x Dawson International 0.03 1.0
11.3% x Dickinson Legg 0.18 0.8
5.7% x Fuller Smith & Turner 4.75 8.8
5.7% x M J Gleeson 0.74 2.2
14.2% x Inspired Gaming Group 0.04 0.4
5.5% x Inspired Gaming Prefs 0.33 1.7
6.5% x Jersey Electricity "A" 69.00 2.6
6.4% x Jersey New Water Works 35.00 0.6
1.1% x M & G Equity 0.02 0.0
7.0% x Nationwide Accident Repair 0.93 2.8
27.7% x Newbury Racecourse 7.25 6.4
3.1% x Shepherd Neame "A" 7.42 2.6
1.1% x Sweet China 0.03 0.0
6.0% x Sysmedia 0.01 0.0
5.7% x Third Advance Value 0.10 0.1
10.9% x 333 Holdings 1.00 0.2
14.2% x Young & Co's Brewery "A" 4.58 18.9
33.7% x Young & Co's Brewery "NV" 4.03 26.0
£94.2m
=NZ$233.8m
AUSTRALIAN SHARE PORTFOLIO Share price A$m
7.7% x A V Jennings 0.34 7.2
10.6% x Babcock & Brown Power 0.08 5.8
71.2% x Canberra Investment Corp 0.55 46.6
9.8% x Capilano Honey 1.20 0.6
75.6% x Capral 0.10 29.4
55.8% x Capral Notes 58.80 16.4
4.7% x CSR 1.99 121.9
19.0% x eServglobal 0.41 15.5
13.0% x Farm Pride Foods 0.27 1.9
5.8% x GME Resources 0.11 1.0
1.3% x IOOF Holdings 4.55 13.2
24.0% x Maryborough Sugar 2.10 23.4
7.6% x MetalsX 0.12 10.3
28.6% x MMC Contrarian 0.43 17.4
12.8% x NSX 0.25 2.4
24.8% x Peanut Co of Aust 4.20 7.6
44.4% x Rattoon Holdings 0.20 4.5
10.0% x Ridley Corp 0.95 29.4
8.7% x Symex Holdings 0.53 5.9
19.9% x Tandou 0.26 4.6
25.0% x Tooth & Co 0.01 0.3
Sundries including Tourism Property Group,
Tasmanian Pure Foods and 4 undisclosed listed investments 33.0
A$398.3m
= NZ$495.8m
AUSTRALIAN TRADING SUBSIDIARIES AND JOINT VENTURES
Australian Country Spinners (50%)
Greens General Foods (72.5%)
Gosford Quarry (100%)
Touch Networks (56%)
These companies have an aggregate book value of A$57 million. All have had problems of
one kind or another which are gradually being resolved but as profitability has not yet been
achieved, no value is attributed for the purpose of this update.
Touch Networks (formerly Tafmo) continues to make good progress towards what we believe
will ultimately be a very successful investment.
NEW ZEALAND SHARE PORTFOLIO Share Price NZ$m
1.3% x ASB Capital Prefs 0.71 3.2
4.1% x Allied Farmers 0.35 0.5
1.3% x Fisher & Paykel Appliances 0.84 7.3
35.0% x Tower 1.74 118.1
19.4% x Turners Auctions 0.80 4.2
65.6% x Turners & Growers 1.55 107.0
NZ$240.3m
SINGAPORE SHARE PORTFOLIO Share Price S$m
0.3% x Isetan (Singapore) 3.39 0.5
17.3% x Pertama Holdings 0.25 10.6
S$11.1m
=NZ$11.4m
GPG SIMPLIFIED BALANCE SHEET AT 10/8/09
NZ$m
Cash at Bank 767
Coats 675
Share Portfolio -
UK 234
Australia 496
NZ 240
SQ 11
Total Assets 2,423
Net creditors (55)
Contingencies, say (62)
Capital Notes (402)
NET EQUITY NZ$1,904
1.60 bn shares on issue = NZ$1.19 per share
Ron Brierley
Chairman
14 August 2009
New Zealand Contact:
Tony Gibbs
Director
+64 9 379 8888

[Arbitrage]

Can anyone see anything positive in the Coats results? http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/2453Y_-2009-8-28.pdf

[winner69]

Can anyone see anything positive in the Coats results? http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/2453Y_-2009-8-28.pdf

Not making too much profit are they - even pre-exceptional is pretty dismal when you aff interest and tax into it

Looks like the last 6 months were a little better than the previous 6 months but doing it tough eh ... and the outook for the next year or so doesn't sound too bright either

Supports the value Ron puts on Coats in his rough and ready balance sheet?

[Arbitrage]

Yes, maybe there are a few "green shoots" amongst the negatives. Some of the other GPG results http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-news/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=10170844 may offset this. I noticed some of the share prices have improved markedly since balance date. For example Capral are now 17c rather than the 10c quoted in the GPG list of equities. This adds another aprox A$20m to the company value...

[Arbitrage]

I think management took their eye off the ball for awhile in the past 18 months and Sir Ron admitted that they had not performed as well as they should have. However it looks like they are stepping up now with a number of actions ranging from Tony Gibbs efforts against Zespri plus battles on several other fronts:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26003213-36418,00.html

http://business.smh.com.au/business/guinness-peat-plans-to-stir-the-pot-at-adnams-20090830-f3zb.html

Hopefully this will reflect in an improved share price.

[macduffy]

I think management took their eye off the ball for awhile in the past 18 months and Sir Ron admitted that they had not performed as well as they should have. However it looks like they are stepping up now with a number of actions ranging from Tony Gibbs efforts against Zespri plus battles on several other fronts:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26003213-36418,00.html

http://business.smh.com.au/business/guinness-peat-plans-to-stir-the-pot-at-adnams-20090830-f3zb.html

Hopefully this will reflect in an improved share price.

I don't think that the (latest) Capral capital raising is a sign of rennaissance at GPG but just another attempt to revive this disastrous investment.

The key to GPG's future still lies in when/whether Coats will start performing. The rest of the portfolio is relatively less important.

[Arbitrage]

Yes I agree. Coats makes up an uncomfortably high proportion of the GPG investment portfolio. It is relying on a recovery of the international economy which most commentators are predicting to be slow. My hope is that GPG sells it off as soon as possible and uses the capital for targetted equity investment.

[777]

Well up 6c at opening is definitely a welcome change.

[Casa del Energia]

I only hold a few GPG so it's not a great focus of mine therefore I'm not that knowlegable about them - - but I note they're holding 300m cash. Naively, I would have thought now would be the time to divest that into equities while 'cheap'.. rather than buy TWR at 1.30 just before the market slump. Or are there things I don't understand here?

[BRICKS]

I only hold a few GPG so it's not a great focus of mine therefore I'm not that knowledgeable about them - - but I note they're holding 300m cash. Naively, I would have thought now would be the time to divest that into equities while 'cheap'.. rather than buy TWR at 1.30 just before the market slump. Or "are there things I don't understand here" ?

BUT we wont worry you with the DETAILS..

[macduffy]

I only hold a few GPG so it's not a great focus of mine therefore I'm not that knowlegable about them - - but I note they're holding 300m cash. Naively, I would have thought now would be the time to divest that into equities while 'cheap'.. rather than buy TWR at 1.30 just before the market slump. Or are there things I don't understand here?

GPG have normally held a fair bit of cash, both to be able to take advantage of buying opportunites and as a conservative balance to their note and other borrowings. I don't have any problem with that but rather with the dismal performance of many of their investments, particularly the big one, Coats.

[Casa del Energia]

GPG have normally held a fair bit of cash, both to be able to take advantage of buying opportunites and as a conservative balance to their note and other borrowings. I don't have any problem with that but rather with the dismal performance of many of their investments, particularly the big one, Coats.

Cheers. Thanks for the explanation.

[Arbitrage]

Change of CEO at Coats ("the company")

Guinness Peat Group plc announces that Mike Smithyman, Chief Executive Officer of Coats plc, will retire from the company with effect from 31 December 2009.

Gary Weiss, Coats Chairman and Executive Director of Guinness Peat Group plc said, "We thank Mike for his invaluable contribution in leading Coats through its major restructuring and creating a modern business that can prosper in these very challenging times. On behalf of Coats, I wish Mike a very happy retirement".

Paul A Forman is appointed Chief Executive Officer.

Paul is currently Group Chief Executive of Low & Bonar plc, a global manufacturer, quoted on the London Stock Exchange, that supplies polymer-based high performance materials to a broad range of end markets.

Prior to his current role, Paul held positions of increasing responsibility at Bain and Company, BZW, The Kalchas Group, Caradon plc, and Unipart Group.

Gary Weiss said, "We are very pleased with Paul's appointment as he brings with him a portfolio of skills well suited to continue the process of developing Coats. He will join in mid-November providing for a smooth and orderly transition from Mike before his retirement".

[AMR]

Any thoughts on their entry into BBP?

[biker]

Any thoughts on their entry into BBP?

My guess. A zombie company with some v good assets but huge debt, effectively worthless on the market, and worth a minor (for GPG) punt with a view to appreciating value of assets and resultant leverage.
BBP out of the ASX 300 and very weak at the moment (GPG showing a loss)
Who knows, some time the market may see some value there.

[macduffy]

GPG have backed so many losers lately that it's about time they had a winner!

What they really need though is for that big horse (Coats) to put in a storming run!

:rolleyes:

[BRICKS]

GPG have backed so many losers lately that it's about time they had a winner!

What they really need though is for that big horse (Coats) to put in a storming run!

:rolleyes:

IS down about 10% from the top of the BUY in price ,, Good one..

[macduffy]

So the reaction to GPG's bid for a controlling 60% interest in Tandou is one big yawn.
The bid is for 50% of each shareholder's stake which may or may not appeal. I can imagine some small holders not wanting to be left with a small, possibly unmarketable parcel so maybe there is provision to accept for the whole holding.

Of course, it's only AUD10.5m which is petty cash compared to the funds tied up and underperforming in Coats.

[Balance]

So the reaction to GPG's bid for a controlling 60% interest in Tandou is one big yawn.
The bid is for 50% of each shareholder's stake which may or may not appeal. I can imagine some small holders not wanting to be left with a small, possibly unmarketable parcel so maybe there is provision to accept for the whole holding.

Of course, it's only AUD10.5m which is petty cash compared to the funds tied up and underperforming in Coats.

Agreed.

Coats = Mt Charlotte.

GPG is well past its use by date. Just a plaything for the directors and management to extract huge management fees and benefits from.

You get the bonus shares, they get the real $$$$ bonuses even when they destroy wealth.

[Balance]

Keep bashing this one ... meanwhile GPG is in a uptrend and OBV remains very positive ;)

Does not worry me. You guys are welcome to buy into the uptrend, whatsoever.

Golden rule is to avoid bad management, that much I know.

[Billy Boy]

Golden rule is to avoid bad management, that much I know.
Here Here !!

[kizame]

Keep bashing this one ... meanwhile GPG is in a uptrend and OBV remains very positive ;)

Don't know about the uptrend on this one,on my chart it has passed through the trend line and is going sideways,noting it has just banged it's head on the 200 day moving average,MACD and RSI trending down, OBV is the only one in pos territory at the mo.

Not a trade for me at the mo,there are some better potentials out there.

[macduffy]

Yes, for my money GPG is still in a two year downtrend from $1-70 in October 2007, albeit with a bit of a tick up lately.
If this short term uptrend fizzles out I'll finally sell the last of my holding.

;)

[macduffy]

Sell depth has just evaporated ... Whats up?

Sellers often pull back in a (relatively) strong market.

The old "incoming tide raising all boats" effect.

;)

[777]

Sell depth has just evaporated ... Whats up?

Reasonable quantity of international buying pre open. And this with the NZ$ at a high level.

[Casa del Energia]

88/89c - Anyone really know whats up - this is starting stand up above the general market.

Or just another blip.

Although, it has been on an uptrend for weeks. I thought it was just bouyed by the rest.

[whatsup]

Belg,,, you old RAMPER I seem to remember that you bought in at .50 or .60 a few months ago are you now RAMPING hoping to get the great unwashed to buy?

[macduffy]

Whatever..... I just hope it keeps working...... as my finger hovers over the "Sell" button!

;)

[Arbitrage]

You may be onto something here. GPG is up 4.94% on the London Stock exchange overnight.

[777]

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=GPG.L

This shows that they were only up .5p (1.23%). And that was their high for the day.

[Arbitrage]

Interesting difference to that and the LSE listing. Any reasons?
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-news/stocks/summary/company-summary.html?fourWayKey=GB0032163650GBGBXSSQ3

[macduffy]

This morning's article in The Australian doesn't say anything new but worth a read, nevertheless.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26125717-36418,00.html

[Arbitrage]

Perhaps Coats performance is improving on the back of better retail sales growth figures coming through in the USA?

[BRICKS]

Not just the USA, Arb. The US and the UK are laggarts and are way behind some other significant economies that use 'thread'. I'd rate GPG as one of the most undervalued stock on the NZX at present.

YOU old ramper BEL the man said some time ago and your still at it to NO avail you have to recoup Millions so keep it up it makes you feel better, but look at RBD DIV`s and CRY...

[shambles]

Can anyone tell me why ASB have GPG with bid and sells above and below each other? ie bid with 4500 shares at .89 and sell with 25000 shares at .88. Why wouldn't those shares have been traded once the target was hit?
Confused :confused:
Cheers, Shambles...

[BRICKS]

Can anyone tell me why ASB have GPG with bid and sells above and below each other? ie bid with 4500 shares at .89 and sell with 25000 shares at .88. Why wouldn't those shares have been traded once the target was hit?
Confused :confused:
Cheers, Shambles...

RING the broker and tell HIM..

[whatsup]

You may be onto something here. GPG is up 4.94% on the London Stock exchange overnight.

I thing its Belg... manipulating/ramping again, noughty noughty Belgie!!

[minimoke]

I thing its Belg... manipulating/ramping again, noughty noughty Belgie!!
Can't be Belg - its trending upwards.

[zac]

An announcement today:
'GPG is informed in the first notification that Tan Chin Tuan Limited ("TCTL")
directly or indirectly holds the voting rights attached to 87,804,624 shares
in GPG representing 5.4% of GPG's total issued share capital. GPG is
informed in the second notification that of TCTL's voting rights attached to
87,804,624 shares in GPG, Dr Mrs Chew Kheng Lian Nee Tan Kheng Lian directly
or indirectly holds the voting rights attached to 60,965,503 shares in GPG.'

Do I take it from these numbers that these interests own nearly 10%. Is there any reason to be nervous of Asian interest moving on GPG? There is an unhappy history of Asian investors aquiring and gutting NZ Companies at the expense of shareholders.

[macduffy]

An announcement today:
'GPG is informed in the first notification that Tan Chin Tuan Limited ("TCTL")
directly or indirectly holds the voting rights attached to 87,804,624 shares
in GPG representing 5.4% of GPG's total issued share capital. GPG is
informed in the second notification that of TCTL's voting rights attached to
87,804,624 shares in GPG, Dr Mrs Chew Kheng Lian Nee Tan Kheng Lian directly
or indirectly holds the voting rights attached to 60,965,503 shares in GPG.'

Do I take it from these numbers that these interests own nearly 10%. Is there any reason to be nervous of Asian interest moving on GPG? There is an unhappy history of Asian investors aquiring and gutting NZ Companies at the expense of shareholders.


No, it's only 5.4% in total as I read it and no, I wouldn't be nervous about it, particularly if it excites some interest in that moribund stock, GPG.

NB My bolding.

[whatsup]

No, it's only 5.4% in total as I read it and no, I wouldn't be nervous about it, particularly if it excites some interest in that moribund stock, GPG.

NB My bolding.

Wheres Belg... when you need him?

[BRICKS]

In a different time zone ... ;)

YES,, is that correct..

[BRICKS]

Why do FORSYTH BARR LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS JB WERE, UBS, FIRST NZ CAPITAL, ABN AMRO, MACQUARIE RESEARCH have either a strong buy or moderate buy with just one with a hold?

Bigger volumes on down days with lows that respect trend lines with interesting OBV and RSI metrics .... Anyone care to throw up a chart and present their thought?

YOUR quoted above firms are only in the game of selling shares so GPG to them is a safe bet so just bring in the suckers as for your Asian friends will make NO difference so
what where the last details of GPG cum CSR issue doubt any just a bigger LOSS..

[Phaedrus]

Bigger volumes on down days with lows that respect trend lines with interesting OBV and RSI metrics....I'm a bit puzzled by your comments here, Belg. A quick glance at the volume histogram clearly shows that for the last year, GPG's biggest volumes have been on UP days (green bars).

Lows that respect trendlines? Only on the OBV. On the price plot there is only a tentative trendline in place and this was of course drawn using the 2 lows. Nothing of any significance there.

Interesting OBV? Well, it IS rising - that's good for holders.

What interested you in the RSI plot? I couldn't see any obvious signals or divergences.

Belg, good for you that GPG is now in an uptrend. You have been a GPG permabull stalwart for literally years notwithstanding the overwhelmingly negative market sentiment that prevailed for most of that time.

I'm pleased that you are showing more interest in TA, Belg - it could help you a LOT. See how you were buying GPG when it was in a clear downtrend? With a falling OBV? And falling Momentum? Technically, these were very ill-advised and high-risk entries. Buying falling stocks is not good practice. Averaging down by adding to a losing trade only compounds the initial mistake. It is throwing good money after bad.

It is comforting to use TA when it agrees with your intuitive and/or fundamental assessment of a stock. (I suspect that is why you are asking for it now, Belg!) Think back, though, to the many examples of where these two approaches were poles apart and you were buying stocks like GPG HBY PPL etc at a time when their technical weakness was painfully obvious. Buying more and more...... all the way down.

The trend is your friend. Don't fight it.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/GPG1116.gif

[Awamoa]

Is this company falling out of favour again?Its becoming a long wait to get back towards the price I've paid for mine.

[macduffy]

More a case of "staying out of favour" I reckon.

GPG hasn't been the same since the Coats business started to look a bit strained and GPG doesn't seem to have made any great buys from the fallout of the Global Financial Mess. A missed opportunity?

If anything, the slide seems to have stopped and we may be seeing the first signs of a tentative SP uptrend.

[Contrarian]

Gidday

Still plugging away,

Tandou, holder of water rights in Oz GPG mopping up.

MMA something like 60 cents cash in the bank, GPG mopping up at 50 cents.

There is a CSR/Maryborough sugar play happening.

They bought a sandstone quarry crowd with a land bank, They are poised (for some time) for the inevitable NSW housing turn around.

I have no doubt they are creeping on things like TWR & other positions.

Read Ron's reports re NTA & reflect that the portfolio valuations are on last sale, not NTA of those subsidaries, eventually they will be worked through & cashed up at full value.

[Anna Naum]

Gidday

Still plugging away,

Tandou, holder of water rights in Oz GPG mopping up.

MMA something like 60 cents cash in the bank, GPG mopping up at 50 cents.

There is a CSR/Maryborough sugar play happening.

They bought a sandstone quarry crowd with a land bank, They are poised (for some time) for the inevitable NSW housing turn around.

I have no doubt they are creeping on things like TWR & other positions.

Read Ron's reports re NTA & reflect that the portfolio valuations are on last sale, not NTA of those subsidaries, eventually they will be worked through & cashed up at full value.

All good SMALL things really. GPG sinks or swims on what happens to Coats, the rest is just small change. Difficult to see Coats being on fire with retail sales down so much.

[macduffy]

Yes, A N, that's the issue. It's been said before but Coats is far and away GPG's biggest play, something like 25% of total assets, including cash. If Coats doesn't work, neither will GPG.

[Arbitrage]

Thanks for your plots Phaedrus. For those of us following GPG it has been a long slow grind. I agree with your comment Anna the small deals look like hobby plays by the directors, and even Ron admitted they took their eye off the ball as MacDuffy points out.
Where to from here?
Coats is the key and GPG has downgraded its value. GPG still has a lot of cash so there is potential for a major play but I wonder whether the team has any energy left as they look towards windng up the company (no longer in 2010 but maybe in a few years time). I suspect they are more interested in capital protection to ensure themselves a decent pay out in the wash up.
My feeling is that the share price will drift around following general market trends, until Coats is sold.
Hopefully they will prove me wrong.

[Contrarian]

Gidday

I thought Coats was bigger than 25%, maybe it was & isn't anymore after write down.

If it was only 25% then the other 75% seems to be riding pretty well, I know there has been Caprals --, but there has also been MYOBs ++. The TWR split into 3, underwrite, mop up small shareholders all good stuff and an ongoing story.

So today we have ALF doing a big deal, GPG are 5% shareholders, I expect (hope) ALF have been talking with Tony, Gary & Sir Ron

[macduffy]

As at interim balance date, 30 June 2009, Coats was valued at GBP272m, comprising 27.8% of total assets of GBP767m.

Cash was a hefty 40% at GBP308m.