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Gryffyn
26-11-2004, 07:45 AM
Seeing as the old buried-thread's title is somewhat discredited of late (like its author), I thought I'd start this one.

Gryffyn
26-11-2004, 07:46 AM
Tower bid attracts scepticism

25.11.2004
By GARETH VAUGHAN
Tower's biggest shareholder, Guinness Peat Group, is in the box seat to gain control of the insurer's Australian money management unit if smaller shareholders shun the division's planned rights issue, says Macquarie Equities.

Tower is to transfer financial planner Bridges and money manager Tower Trust into a new company that will be listed on the Australian stock exchange - Australian Wealth Management. In exchange, Tower gets 120 million AWM shares and A$130 million.

The A$130 million will come from a renounceable rights offer of additional AWM shares. This will be underwritten by GPG, which owns 19.9 per cent of Tower.

About 80,000 of Tower's 117,000 shareholders are New Zealanders. No other shareholders hold more than 5 per cent.

The Macquarie research report suggests a take-up rate of below 35 per cent for the AWM rights issue would leave GPG with control of AWM "by stealth".

One analyst suggests the rights issue take-up rate, subject to any offer discount, will not be high.

"Would you tip in A$130 million of which A$90 million will be used to recapitalise another business, i.e. Tower?" the analyst, who asked not to be named, said.

Another school of thought is that many retail investors are likely to take up the rights issue, believing if GPG sees value in it, they should too.

Meanwhile, a Citigroup Smith Barney research report is also sceptical of the move.

"It seems increasingly likely to us that the decision to separate AWM may be as much about Tower undertaking a A$130 million capital raising as it is about positioning AWM on a solid growth footing".

Tower chairman Olaf O'Duill and GPG director Tony Gibbs yesterday poured cold water on GPG getting control of AWM.

O'Duill said it might be technically possible for GPG to end up with more than 50 per cent of AWM, but was not a realistic possibility.

Gibbs, who is on Tower's board, said it was "humorous" to even suggest it.

"It is pro rata to all shareholders, so everyone is being treated equally", Gibbs said. "It is a good deal for everybody, otherwise we wouldn't be doing it".

O'Duill said suggestions Tower had chosen a stock market listing over a trade sale because bids were below the $235 million Bridges and Tower Trust book value were wrong.

Tower did not seek trade sale buyers, and although some interest was received, price was not discussed.

"If anybody is serious about wishing to buy these businesses, they can bid for AWM after it's listed," O'Duill said.

An information memorandum is due early next month with a shareholders' meeting seeking approval in late January and listing scheduled for February.

O'Duill is confident shareholders will approve the plan.

Gryffyn
26-11-2004, 07:47 AM
I think this is as relevent to this thread as it is to the TWR thread. We may see a lot of cross-posting in the weeks to come if the action hots up.

Disc: GPG, TWR

Gryffyn
26-11-2004, 05:18 PM
Read a little snippet in the DP about another classic GPG play for some egg farm in Oz. Looks like they are setting up to consolidate a profitable area. By accounts their buying in at below NTA. Will post article if can find online.

Disc: GPG, TWR

PrinceofWhales
26-11-2004, 06:01 PM
Here's another winner from GPG. This article is from today's Sydney Morning Herald:
__________________________________________________ __________________

At a buy-in price of about two bob, and probably a lot lower, Guinness has cleaned up.

It looks like Sir Ron Brierley's Guinness Peat Group has finally sold its stake in Reinsurance Australia Corp.

GPG has been selling down the stake of late, with the most recent substantial shareholder notice lodged only last week showing a selldown to 15 per cent from 17 per cent.

But traders report more selling trickling through in recent days - and yesterday a line of 21 million shares representing about 10 per cent of the company looks to have cleaned out the remainder of GPG's holding.

The line is believed to have been handled by Wilson's and was valued at $11.2 million. Traders reported it was the "end of a selling line" that's been around for a while and has been putting significant downward pressure on the stock.

Reinsurance Australia rose 3c yesterday to 57c as fears eased that the selldown of the remaining stock wouldn't find a happy home. GPG executive director Gary Weiss wasn't saying what the buy-in price was but ReAC has traded between 3c and 20c for a couple of years up until June last year.

Runswifscissors
26-11-2004, 09:42 PM
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Read a little snippet in the DP about another classic GPG play for some egg farm in Oz. Looks like they are setting up to consolidate a profitable area. By accounts their buying in at below NTA. Will post article if can find online.

Disc: GPG, TWR

The Egg Producer was Farm pride in Victoria. With Brierly also getting involved with the Salmon trade over there, maybe all hes trying to do is make himself a really good eggs benedict!

Gryffyn
26-11-2004, 10:22 PM
Sure as eggs?

Gryffyn
30-11-2004, 08:39 AM
GPG30/11/2004DIRINT REL: 0836 HRS Guinness Peat Group Plc DIRINT: GPG: Director Shareholding SCHEDULE 11 NOTIFICATION OF INTERESTS OF DIRECTORS AND CONNECTED PERSONS 1. Name of company Guinness Peat Group plc 2. Name of director Graeme James Cureton 3. Please state whether notification indicates that it is in respect ofholding of the shareholder named in 2 above or in respect of a non-beneficialinterest or in the case of an individual holder if it is a holding of thatperson's spouse or children under the age of 18 or in respect of anon-beneficial interest Own Holding 4. Name of the registered holder(s) and, if more than one holder, the numberof shares held by each of them (if notified) Graeme James Cureton - on the Australian Register - 50,526Buduva - on the Australian Register - 168,927 ------------- 129,453 -------------- 5. Please state whether notification relates to a person(s) connected withthe director named in 2 above and identify the connected person(s) Director 6. Please state the nature of the transaction. For PEP transactions pleaseindicate whether general/single co PEP and if discretionary/non discretionary On-market disposal 7. Number of shares / amount of stock acquired N/A 8. Percentage of issued class N/A 9. Number of shares/amount of stock disposed 150,000 10. Percentage of issued class 0.02% 11. Class of security Ordinary 5p shares 12. Price per share A$ 1.962 13. Date of transaction 29 November 2004 14. Date company informed 29 November 2004 15. Total holding following this notification 219,453 16. Total percentage holding of issued class following this notification 0.03% If a director has been granted options by the company please complete thefollowing boxes. 17. Date of grant 18. Period during which or date on which exercisable 19. Total amount paid (if any) for grant of the option 20. Description of shares or debentures involved: class, number 21. Exercise price (if fixed at time of grant) or indication that price is tobe fixed at time of exercise 22. Total number of shares or debentures over which options held followingthis notification 23. Any additional information 24. Name of contact and telephone number for queries J R Russell 020 7484 3370 25. Name and signature of authorised company official responsible for makingthis notification J R Russell 020 7484 3370 Date of Notification 29 November 2004 J R Russell 020 7484 3370End CA:00108667 For:GPG Type:DIRINT Time:2004-11-30:08:36:00

Gryffyn
30-11-2004, 08:41 AM
I never like it when Dirs sell but at least he still has a few. Maybe he has some xmas shopping to do?

Disc: GPG

Taijon
30-11-2004, 02:40 PM
A few directors have reduced their holdings over the last 2-3 months. At around this price. SP seems to have a problem getting above $2.19. But a lot of things on the go for GPG at presnt and all of them look good.

Gryffyn
30-11-2004, 03:01 PM
Yes, its my long term hold stock with lots of holdings in countries outside of NZ and the US.

Steve
01-12-2004, 10:40 AM
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Yes, its my long term hold stock with lots of holdings in countries outside of NZ and the US.


Likewise for me. Have been with GPG for so long now for this very reason. Not to memtion that I am a great fan of Ron...

Gryffyn
01-12-2004, 10:59 AM
God forbid and touch wood etc but how much do you think GPG depends on Sir Ron himself?

What is the likely impact of an unfortunate death or serios ill-health?

I wonder if I can take life insurance out on Sir Ron?

blackcap
01-12-2004, 11:14 AM
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

God forbid and touch wood etc but how much do you think GPG depends on Sir Ron himself?

What is the likely impact of an unfortunate death or serios ill-health?

I wonder if I can take life insurance out on Sir Ron?


Saw Sir Ron enjoying the cricket at Adelaide the other day and he seemed in fine fettle. Then again watching the NZ performance cant do much for for ticker. Also if hes spending his time watching the cricket, I doubt he is spending much working on GPG, so his young stooges might be doing the hard yards. GPG should survive without Ron methinks.

Steve
01-12-2004, 02:56 PM
I remember meeting Sir Ron and shaking his hand, many years ago at a BRY AGM in Wellington (the one where he stepped in late to be the chairman of the meeting - 1998?!).

My initial thought (which has stuck in my mind) was that he wasn't as physically big as I had perceived him to be - ie: I was taller than him.

He was definately an interesting person to have a brief chat with...

Gryffyn
02-12-2004, 10:09 AM
GPG (through its nominee Ithaca (Custodians) Limited
and through Guinness Peat Group Shares Limited) has
a 19.91% shareholding in TOWER. If the Proposal is
implemented, GPG will have the same shareholding in
AWM, and will exercise all Entitlements allocated to it in
full to maintain that shareholding.
The offer of AWM Shares under the Entitlements Offer is
underwritten by GPG for the full amount.
AWM Shares not subscribed for under the Entitlements
Offer in accordance with the terms of this document
will be subscribed for by GPG. The main terms of
the Underwriting Agreement are summarised in this
section. If the Underwriting Agreement does not
become unconditional, it may be terminated and,
in that case, TOWER and AWM will not proceed with
the Entitlements Offer.
Any AWM Shares for which GPG subscribes under
the Underwriting Agreement will increase GPG’s
shareholding over 19.91%. If no Entitlements were
exercised by Shareholders other than GPG, GPG would
hold approximately 66% of AWM Shares following
completion of the Entitlements Offer (approximately
186.5 million AWM Shares out of a total of 282.6
million AWM Shares). GPG is entitled to retain those
Shares. Accordingly GPG may signifi cantly increase
its voting power in AWM through the Underwriting
Agreement.

Gryffyn
02-12-2004, 10:10 AM
More good news for GPG...

GPG will subscribe (or procure subscription) at the issue
price of A$0.80 per AWM Share for all AWM Shares not
subscribed for under the Entitlements Offer.
If the Underwriting Agreement proceeds, AWM must
pay GPG an underwriting fee of A$2,276,400 being
1.75% of the total number of AWM Shares to be issued
under the Entitlements Offer multiplied by the issue
price of A$0.80 (Underwriting Fee).
If the Underwriting Agreement is terminated because:
• through no fault of AWM or TOWER any
condition is not met (including Shareholder
approval to either the Proposal or the
underwrite), AWM must pay a fee of
A$220,000 to GPG;
• of a breach of any obligation of AWM
(including relating to the contents of
this document), AWM must pay a fee of
A$500,000 to GPG; or
• AWM elects not to proceed with the
Entitlements Offer (other than because of
the default of GPG), AWM must pay a fee of
A$750,000 to GPG. In addition GPG has the
fi rst right to underwrite any other offer
of securities by AWM for the following
12 months.
AWM has agreed to indemnify GPG and persons acting
for them in connection with the underwrite against
losses relating to breach by AWM of its obligations
under the Underwriting Agreement.
AWM will reimburse GPG for all reasonable out of
pocket expenses, legal expenses and third party
disbursements properly incurred by GPG in connection
with the Entitlements Offer, to a maximum of
A$300,000. All payments for the underwriting fee and
expenses are plus GST.

Gryffyn
11-12-2004, 08:13 AM
GPG - Gauging Guinness Peat Group

Share Price $1.960 *
Market Cap $1700 million
12 Month Range $1.43 - $2.06
Fundamental Risk 2.0
Share Price Risk 3.5
Share Price Comment Hold for the Upside
* Share Price correct as at 29-Nov-2004
This is a stock we'd love to own at the right price. But should we buy now or keep waiting?

Unusual as it may seem, we're going to start this review of a brand new stock by referring back to an article on technology company Solution 6 from 18 months ago. Our Speculative Buy recommendation on that stock, in issue 125/Apr 03 (Speculative Buy-$0.43), was out of character for technophobes like us. While we did label it a High Stakes play, we also happily declared that we have no talent in the field of software development and so found the business nearly impossible to value. So what right did we have recommending it?
It's a technique known as following the smart money. If you can't identify people smarter than yourself, it's probably time to take a long, hard look in the mirror. High up on our long list of smarter folk come kiwi duo Sir Ron Brierley and Gary Weiss. Their investment vehicle, Guinness Peat Group (GPG), had amassed an 11% stake in Solution 6 and GPG man Michael Jefferies had been given a seat on the board. Subscribers who followed that recommendation and sold out seven months later, as we suggested, made a profit of almost 50%. But, in a mild sting to our pride, a few days later MYOB announced its plans to acquire the group and GPG has done substantially better.
Solution 6 was a typical GPG investment-downtrodden, misunderstood by most and, so it proved, very cheap. GPG typically buys shares at knock-down prices when others are unable to see the true value. It then either agitates for management change or encourages potential acquirers to take a look, sometimes with the blessing of management but often without. Either way, GPG's record of extracting value from acquisitions is very impressive.Brierley and Weiss are two of the few corporate raiders of the 1980s to have escaped gaol and the poorhouse, although they came close to the latter. At the helm of Brierley Investments and IEL, the pair's raids on AGL and Woolworths in the decade of decadence were the stuff of financial legend (for those who care to read about those escapades, try a copy of Masters of the Market).
In the early 1990s the lads parted ways with Brierley Investments and bought into GPG, once part of a traditional London merchant bank. That's been their investment vehicle ever since. After learning a very big lesson in the dangers of debt (see this issue's cover story), GPG has traded with very little net debt. Its investments, such as Tyndall Australia in the early nineties, have proved every bit as successful as their earlier, debt-fuelled adventures. GPG is an investment company, although structured a lot differently to your average listed investment company (LIC). It tends to own much larger stakes in companies so it can exert influence over their boards, and even has some wholly-owned businesses.
The company is based in London with stockmarket listings in the UK, Australia and New Zealand. With significant investments in all three countries, valuing GPG isn't easy. There's a significant currency exposure and different tax and accounting laws muddle the numbers further. And the annual one-for-10 stock dividend, which has no economic impact other than to make comparisons rather complicated, clouds things even further.But that hasn't stopped the group from compounding net assets per share at almost 20% a year since the early nineties. GPG's portfolio of investments is currently valued at around 670m pounds, including 150m pounds in cash. The largest investment, comprising one-third of assets, is the newly-acquired, wholly-owned subsidiary Coats plc. The UK company is the world's largest supplier of industrial sewing thread and craft products. Other large majority-owned investments include New Zealand produce marketer, Turners & Growers, and ACT property developer, Canberra Investment Corp

Gryffyn
11-12-2004, 08:15 AM
Above originally posted by airedale on TWR thread.

coge
11-12-2004, 09:36 AM
Thanks, Gryff.

A bit of light reading for Saturday morning.[8D]

nelehdine
17-12-2004, 09:26 PM
Yawn Yawn ... someone wake me up when this stock starts moving ......

Disc: bored GPG holder ...

Paddie
17-12-2004, 11:02 PM
Nele,

You puzzle me. You have been holder for such a short time.

Paddie[:p]

nelehdine
20-12-2004, 09:18 AM
Two months of going sideways/drifting lower Paddie, all my other stocks have performed well, GPG seem a little "blinded by the headlights" at the moment. ( Only 2% of portfolio, so no major issue )

Gryffyn
11-01-2005, 06:27 AM
Brokers spy value hidden in Coats

11.01.05
by Ellen Read


Brokers who chose Guinness Peat Group as one of this year's top picks on the sharemarket have three main reasons for championing Sir Ron Brierley's investment company.

ASB Securities believes the market has yet to fully appreciate the company's asset base and the huge value potential in Coats, the zip-and-thread maker.

The English firm, boasting 30,000 employees, was taken over by GPG last April with a £200 million ($539 million) investment.

Another GPG champion, First NZ Capital, sees the successful restructuring of Coats - which accounts for 35 per cent of GPG net assets - as having the potential to add at least 45c a share to GPG's net asset value.

First NZ Capital research head Rob Bode said that Coats, headed locally by director Tony Gibbs, was also a potential beneficiary of the expected fall of the local dollar this year.

This was because companies that held most of their investments overseas, such as GPG, experienced a rise in the value of their assets when the New Zealand dollar fell.

The third GPG fan among the nine broking firms that took part in this year's Business Herald stock-picking competition is GoldmanSachs JB Were.

The firm's head of retail, John Cobb, said GPG was given the nod due to the signs of operational improvements at Coats and the potential for corporate activity surrounding Rubicon and Tower, both of which feature heavily in GPG's New Zealand investment portfolio.



GPG, which became the investment vehicle of Sir Ron after Brierley Investments floundered in the 1990s, has a market capitalisation of just over $1.9 billion.

The company's investment track record spans sectors including financial services, motor vehicle distribution, foodstuffs, building products and gas distribution.

In August, the company disclosed a "modest £5 million result in conventional accounting terms" for the six months to June 30, saying it had been another active and productive half-year.

"As we have stated before, many of GPG's major sources of profit do not fall neatly into six- or 12-month reporting periods and some volatility must be accepted," said director Blake Nixon.

"For the same reason, the half-year is not necessarily indicative of the full-year result, when various transactions now under discussion or negotiation are likely to come to fruition."

Three reasons to like GPG

* The potential of its British thread-making business, Coats.
* An expected dip in the dollar.
* The likely corporate activity around GPG's local investments.

coge
12-01-2005, 08:29 PM
Not sure I agree with the dip in the dollar, but there has been good volume lately.

Could be on the way to breach 2.30 soon.

Gryffyn
20-01-2005, 04:45 PM
Does anyone know if GPG plan to exercise all their rights?

Taijon
21-01-2005, 10:07 AM
More than 19 million shares sold in the first hour today and the share price has dropped 3 cents.

Gryffyn, is this you disposing of your GPG shares today following your sell down of TWR shares yesterday?

Cooper
21-01-2005, 10:16 AM
DJ MARKET TALK: GPG Down After Discount Stake Sold Overnight



1008 [Dow Jones] Guinness Peat Group (GPG.NZ) stock price may come under pressure today
after big overnight trade goes through at discount to market; line of 19 million shares,
or 2.2% stake, traded at NZ$2.12. GPG soared to all-time high of NZ$2.27 last week,
closed yesterday at NZ$2.22; stock opens weaker in early trade, now down 1.4% at NZ$2.19.

(POR)

No mention of seller or buyer.

Gryffyn
21-01-2005, 11:07 AM
:-) Taijon. I'd be happy to pick some more up at 2.12.

Gryffyn
21-01-2005, 11:08 AM
ps - that's not saying I bought the 19mill. I have a few but not that many!

Gryffyn
21-01-2005, 11:11 AM
big sales are often at a discount - remember hanover selling out of twr?

would like to know the parties though

Gryffyn
21-01-2005, 11:45 AM
Seems to have stabilised at 219 - 220.

Cooper
21-01-2005, 12:11 PM
DJ MARKET TALK: GPG Seller Rothschild -Source Near Deal



2345 GMT [Dow Jones] Seller of 2.2% stake in Guinness Peat Group (GPG.NZ) is

London's Rothschild investment bank, according to source with knowledge of sale,

scuttling earlier market speculation that seller was U.S. fund Franklin Templeton. Source

says Rothschild "has done very well" out of its holding in GPG, which it picked

up as part of GPG's acquisition of UK-based Coats last year. GPG shares holding up

well after sale done at discount price of NZ$2.12, stock now down 1% at NZ$2.20 (POR)

Gryffyn
21-01-2005, 12:22 PM
That makes better reading thanks coop.

Fish Broker
21-01-2005, 01:06 PM
I don't understand much about TA - but looking at the GPG graph, is it forming a wedge? - What does that mean? - positive I assume if it breaks out on the upside?

Can anyone comment...

Snow Leopard
21-01-2005, 01:21 PM
Fish Broker, I know nothing about TA but I think you should draw a line between the lows of mar 03 and nov 04, continue it on into the future and accept it is currently in an uptrend :)

limegreen
21-01-2005, 01:38 PM
It looks more to me like a level of resistance (red line) that has been broken, which may be providing support. Drawing in an uptrend (green line) on GPG is usually pretty easy.

I'm a TA novice, but if GPG closes down today (which is looking less likely as the day wears on) it will hammer the OBV indicator. Although I'm not sure that OBV is neccessarily designed for such a trade.

As for a wedge, if I was going to suggest any formation, I think an ascending triangle (positive) would seem more likely than a wedge.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/gpg21jan05.gif

(NB -- this graph doesn't include today's price action)

Gryffyn
21-01-2005, 01:45 PM
Where's Phaedrus when we need him :-)

Gryffyn
24-01-2005, 08:16 AM
UK trust offloads holding in GPG

24.01.05
By PAUL PANCKHURST


The investment trust of British billionaire Lord Jacob Rothschild is believed to have sold shares it inherited as part of Guinness Peat Group's takeover of threadmaker Coats.

It is understood that RIT Capital Partners, a UK-listed investment trust, chaired by Rothschild and part-owned by the Rothschild family, sold $40.9 million worth of GPG shares.

Australian and New Zealand institutions paid $2.12 a share - a 4.5 per cent discount on Thursday's closing price.

RIT was a part of the GPG-led consortium, Avenue Acquisitions, that took over UK company Coats - a global business and the world's largest threadmaker - for $1.1 billion in 2003.

After the takeover, GPG owned 64 per cent of the investment vehicle that owned Coats.

Last May, GPG mopped up the minority shareholders in Coats, including RIT Capital, with the $175 million offer of 1.25 GPG shares and 25p in cash for each Coats share.

The average price of GPG shares last May was $1.97. Friday's sale price of $2.12 was 7 per cent higher.

At the Auckland office of UBS - the sharebroker that sold the shares - managing director Campbell Stuart refused to comment.

Coats is the biggest investment of GPG, the investment company founded by Sir Ron Brierley.

In August, Brierley described the move to 100 per cent ownership of Coats and the associated upfront costs and write-offs as "more painful than originally anticipated".

He said Coats' operating profit rose 85 per cent in the six months to June 30 of last year but was eaten up by refinancing charges and a geographical mismatch of taxable earnings and tax credits for past losses.

He touted January 1 of this year as "a symbolic date when Coats begins a new financial year as a reorganised and fully fledged subsidiary of GPG".

Brierley also spelled out the five stages of "the Coats exercise".

* One: a strategic stake.

* Two: a successful takeover.

* Three: 100 per cent ownership.

* Four: full integration with GPG.

* Five: deliver results.

Sharebrokers seem to think the company will get there - GPG was one of the favourites of brokers polled by the Business Herald on stocks expected to do well in 2005.

Gryffyn
02-02-2005, 12:38 PM
Article in today's DomPost re GPG and that it is probably undervalued. Bases this mainly on the Coates turn-around. Points out 18% annualised cap growth of share since Sir Ron took over. Hedges a little by pointing out that as Coates is wholly owned, accurate figures aren't available but still gives a rosey view of GPG for the year. Sorry, can't find an online link for article.

The share price has been tracking up nicely for the last week or so which is great for those of us long in this stock :-)

Disc: GPG

Ted2
15-02-2005, 02:24 PM
Seems to be benefiting from high opening for AUW. (up 30c)

More value to GPG!!

Disc. Hold GPG, TWR, and plenty of AUW (I think)
:D:D:D:D

Gryffyn
15-02-2005, 03:04 PM
It's all good :-)

Taijon
17-02-2005, 02:03 PM
GPG going great guns over the last week. Has anyone seen a date for the release of the annual result? What if Sir Ron and co decide not to have a 1:10 bonus issue this year - watch the share price fall away again.

neopole
17-02-2005, 02:12 PM
with the money coming from TEN and RBC and the TWR play a 2:10 bonus could be on the cards( just dreaming)

limegreen
17-02-2005, 02:55 PM
a 2:10 doesn't seem too odder proposition. GPG have kept the stock trading in a relatively tight range over the years while maintaining actual value growth. I wonder if perhaps it is in part to play on the perception of it being a cheap stock. I should be doing other things, but it would be interesting to work out what value GPG would be without splits and DRP etc. over the years, all of which have kept increasing the number of shares on issue and held by each shareholder, rather than changing the sp much.

Gryffyn
17-02-2005, 08:52 PM
and why would the price fall just because there isn't a 10 for 1 split???? it's not as though they are actually giving us cash or anything.

Disc: GPG and loving it

gulf
22-02-2005, 08:43 AM
a little action in London last night with price up to 88.50p(1.72%) on 106306 shares

Gryffyn
22-02-2005, 11:41 AM
hopefully we'll see that here nett of currency moves

shasta
22-02-2005, 11:42 AM
With all that money on its way, regardless of the annual bonus, any chance of an increased dividend on the way?

Personally i'd rather they keep the money & use it for the next wounded duck!

Gryffyn
22-02-2005, 12:10 PM
I think dividend is a dirty word at GPG so I'm not expecting morecthan the usual 1-2% yield which is fine b me - cap growth not taxed :-)

gulf
22-02-2005, 12:28 PM
I guess the preliminary report will be out in early March.I would be surprised if there was a change in the dividend or the usual 1:10 bonus.It will be interesting to see the progress with Coates

gulf
24-02-2005, 02:14 PM
GPG having a bad day in Aust.down .6c to 209 on 168480.TWR down .5

Gryffyn
24-02-2005, 03:35 PM
Ouch!

Gryffyn
25-02-2005, 10:13 AM
Volume wasn't that high yesterday and it seems to have been oversold with the same vol already today and some good recovery.

Disc: GPG

James K
25-02-2005, 11:13 AM
Nice to see Gryffyn, GPG sp gave me a fright yesterday. UBS Warburg just out a note estimating its market NAV at 269 - a discount of 15% is pretty generous given GPG track record and the largely unhedged NZ$ implications. A lot will depend on Coats, and whether it is as good an investment as the analysts and GPG seem to believe. Suspect that will take a year or more likely two years to prove, though. Happy to hold.

Gryffyn
25-02-2005, 12:44 PM
Ditto.

Gryffyn
01-03-2005, 08:20 AM
GPG01/03/2005FLLYR REL: 0900 HRS Guinness Peat Group Plc FLLYR: GPG: Preliminary Results for Year Ended 31 December 2004 Guinness Peat Group plc ("GPG or "the Company" or "the Group") PRELIMINARY RESULTS FOR YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2004 CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT A relatively modest year for GPG in accounting terms with profit down from?64.0 million to GBP25.3 million. A rather better result was the continuedoverall increase in value of the Company (expressed in terms of market valueof quoted investments and book value elsewhere) of some ?87 million which isprobably a more appropriate measure for a company such as GPG. The reasons for the lower profit are readily identifiable and are worthfurther explanation. 1. A fewer number of completed capital transactions.This is essentially a timing issue with various projected asset sales now inthe pipeline for 2005.2. Coats' net loss of GBP 5.6 million.In view of Coats' importance to GPG, a separate report on this investment isproduced on Pages 4 and 5.3. An "exchange translation" loss of ?7.0 million compared with a profit ofGBP15.9 million in 2003.Regardless of annual fluctuations, in the longer run, the basket ofcurrencies in which our portfolio is held, must largely equalise. Since 1991,the net aggregate outcome of currency changes to date is a deficit of ?1million.4. A GBP6 million write-off in the value of Intellect Holdings Ltd.As foreshadowed in the Interim Report, it has been necessary to make aprovision in respect of what has so far been an unsuccessful investment andit was decided to write off the book value entirely. We do not believe it tobe all bad, however, and since 30 June, we have contributed an additional?1.3 million (wisely or not, remains to be seen) in recapitalising thecompany. Our holding is now 18%. We have also invested GBP 6.6 million in anew entity called Tafmo Ltd, an unlisted public company in which we have adirect 56% interest and Intellect has a further 28%. Tafmo appears to havegood credentials in the development of electronic payments technology.5. An "equity accounted" loss of ?9.8 million ex Capral Aluminium Ltd.This is purely accounting fiction as GPG has no entitlement to ex CapralAluminium Ltd profits or losses other than dividends received (or, in thiscase, not received).Capral's poor result (which includes the write-off of a "future tax benefit"of A$27.2 million) is, however, of definite concern to GPG in respect of itssubstantial investment in the company. There are distinct parallels withCoats insofar as a major relocation of the main manufacturing operations hasadversely affected current profitability but must pay off in the longer term.The market price of the shares has held up well, reflecting the confidence ofGPG and other major shareholders in the company's future prospects. The sale of Charter shares was a major contributor to the 2004 result andthere were also useful profits from Solution 6, Reinsurance Australia andAustralian Pharmaceutical Industries. In 2003 we wrote off the value of our 30% holding in Dawson International butthe company has actually recovered reasonably well and recently repaid ?4.0million of its convertible notes. Also, it has now acquired Dorma Group from Coats. Dorma has been a problemarea in the past but in the Dawson environment it has every opportunity tosucceed, as indeed it should, with its strong brands in linen and bedwear andan extensive marketing network in the UK. The "spin off" by Tower of certain of its Australian operations into a newlisting of Australian Wealth Management Ltd is proceeding to plan. This isthe first significant move by Tower since GPG became involved several yearsago and it is very positive for all concerned. GPG will continue to be themajor shareholder in both companies - AWM, a formidable new entrant in astrongly growing area of financial services and for Tower, the next phase inthe development of a leaner, more streamlined organisation. Since balance date, we have sold most of our shareholding in De Vere Group ona satisfactory basis. After some years of mild confrontation, it was f

Gryffyn
01-03-2005, 08:25 AM
Gotta like the regularity of their 'standard' div policy - 1p a year.

Gryffyn
01-03-2005, 08:27 AM
SP has fluctuated a bit last few days but still tracking up. Will be interesting to see how the market receives this news - business as usual is my prediction. As the report says. GPG is an investment vehicle so value of holdings is the main measure.

Gryffyn
01-03-2005, 08:43 AM
Looking at the depth queues the bidding seems to indicate a rise in GPG today :-)

Disc: GPG

warthog
01-03-2005, 08:46 AM
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Looking at the depth queues the bidding seems to indicate a rise in GPG today :-)

Disc: GPG


The truth of the pudding ...

Interesting. I like the forthwright manner in which GPG reports. Nothing held back it seems. Nice and terse too. No wading through waffle.

disc: hold GPG

Gryffyn
01-03-2005, 08:50 AM
Yeah, I've sent for a full copy. Sometimes they can be a bit obtuse though - generally their tone is we know what we are doing and we hate having to keep reporting on it...

Gryffyn
01-03-2005, 09:04 AM
As usual, a simplified GPG Balance Sheet (book value figures) is set out below. This provides a
more useful analysis of GPG as an investor than the conventional group accounts.
Simplified Balance Sheet at 31 December 2004
£m
Cash at Bank 193
Debtors 14
Coats 222
Nationwide 9
Staveley (UK & USA) -
Canberra Investment Corp. 13
Turners & Growers 44
De Vere Group 33
Capral 20
Tower 35
Share portfolio 133
--------
TOTAL ASSETS 716
Creditors (24)
Note Issues (178)
--------
SHAREHOLDERS’ FUNDS £514
====

warthog
01-03-2005, 09:05 AM
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Yeah, I've sent for a full copy. Sometimes they can be a bit obtuse though - generally their tone is we know what we are doing and we hate having to keep reporting on it...


Yes. I've heard them bleating about that in the past. With some good reason for the most part.

Will be interesting to see where the SP goes today!

Gryffyn
01-03-2005, 09:10 AM
It's a real hare and tortoise type share - it creeps up steadily through the year as analysts revise their valuations of its holdings. No flashy one-off announcements etc like single focus shares to suddenly drive price up. Hence talked about less than many but frequently out performing them.

warthog
01-03-2005, 09:19 AM
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

It's a real hare and tortoise type share - it creeps up steadily through the year as analysts revise their valuations of its holdings. No flashy one-off announcements etc like single focus shares to suddenly drive price up. Hence talked about less than many but frequently out performing them.


Gryff what do you reckon will happen if the NZD takes a hit over the next year or so? Assets and earnings are fairly offshore-weighted, so this should in theory translate to an appreciation in the NZD sp. Funny how these chains of thought sometimes never translate into relaity.

Gryffyn
01-03-2005, 10:02 AM
warthog - one reason why I'm long in GPG is for that very reason. I think that over the medium to long term the $ will decline and GPGs exposure to offshore assets will be benficial.

Kyser Soze
01-03-2005, 10:32 AM
Hello from Hungary! I have only one company I own and that is GPG. My friend asked me to invest many year ago and me is happy. What mor company like GPG is where?

Gryffyn
01-03-2005, 10:47 AM
now looking like a little weakness in sp but all low volume

Kyser Soze
01-03-2005, 10:50 AM
Why go down?

Halebop
01-03-2005, 11:14 AM
quote:Originally posted by Kyser Soze

Why go down?


Market rumour has it they are funded by Hungarian criminal elements. [:o)]

limegreen
01-03-2005, 01:15 PM
I wonder if the dip was prompted by the tagline for the news-story

"Guinness Peat Group annual profit falls 60 per cent" rather than
"Guinnes Peat Group" increases market value of assets by XX percent...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10113108

Sharebroker
01-03-2005, 01:25 PM
Coates's result worse than expected - that's why.

Add that to Capral, IHG and it looks like some turnarounds are not turning rouund fast enough.

Gryffyn
01-03-2005, 01:39 PM
Bit of both perhaps. Very low vol so far for GPG.

Main thing is that the turn-arounds are happening. Plus getting out of DeVeres was a bonus.

Gryffyn
01-03-2005, 01:46 PM
Guinness Peat Group annual profit falls 60 per cent

01.03.05 11.35am


Guinness Peat Group, the investment vehicle of corporate raider Sir Ron Brierley, today reported a 60 per cent fall in annual profit.

A £5.6 million ($14.98 million) loss at thread company Coats, £7 million foreign exchange loss, and fewer completed transactions contributed to the reduced profit, GPG said in a statement.

The London-based firm posted a net profit of £25.3 million in the 12 months ended December 31, compared with a £64.0 million profit a year earlier.

The company said its market value increased by about £87 million.

Shares in GPG, which declared a 1 pence dividend and one-for-10 bonus issue, closed on Monday at $2.30, down from a record high of $2.39 on February 18.

Its main assets in New Zealand are stakes in fund manager and insurer Tower Ltd, forestry and biotechnology firm Rubicon Ltd, and wood processor Tenon Ltd.

Makes good headline but really is glass half empty/half full with journos loving the more sensational aspect.

Kyser Soze
01-03-2005, 02:50 PM
quote:Originally posted by Halebop


quote:Originally posted by Kyser Soze

Why go down?


Market rumour has it they are funded by Hungarian criminal elements. [:o)]


Not nice welcome for new entrant to site. You be ashamed of it.

whatsup
01-03-2005, 04:00 PM
Q: Is Coates Cotton the Mt Charlott of GPG?

Contrarian
01-03-2005, 04:45 PM
Gryff
I say WHEN some of the investments all ripen at once watch out $5........

Gryffyn
01-03-2005, 04:52 PM
That's a cheerie thought and beyond my wildest expectations. The 1 for 10s will keep the price down around the $2 mark for a while yet.

Gryffyn
01-03-2005, 04:53 PM
quote:Originally posted by whatsup

Q: Is Coates Cotton the Mt Charlott of GPG?


I hope not! Seriously though, except for the major investment factor, there are more differences than similarities. I think Coates is far more progressed on the turn around.

Sharebroker
01-03-2005, 06:21 PM
quote:Originally posted by Contrarian

Gryff
I say WHEN some of the investments all ripen at once watch out $5........


Great track record with GPG to now. Same thing can be said about Brierley Investments until Mt Charlotte however.

Coates is a big bet by GPG and it's now several years into their investment and they are admitting it's running behind turnaround. It is in the textile business and there doesn't seem to be high barriers to entry - just needs the Chinese to get into the business and it's goodbye to Coates.

Need to be careful from here. Still like GPG but not going to recommend it to orphans and widows!

Gryffyn
01-03-2005, 06:31 PM
Hey SB - GPG just opened their major new Coates plant in China!!!

Sharebroker
01-03-2005, 06:35 PM
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Hey SB - GPG just opened their major new Coates plant in China!!!


I know - that's what has got me worried!

Anyone you meet in the textile industry who has opened up facilities in China end up selling them to the Chinese at firesale prices. The Chinese are like the Japanese in the 1960s - they copy everything and kill off their competitors.

Winston001
01-03-2005, 08:37 PM
quote:Originally posted by Kyser Soze

Not nice welcome for new entrant to site. You be ashamed of it.


Take no notice Kyser. Halebop was making a joke. You'll find various amusing comments among the serious good stuff on this forum.

Welcome aboard. GPG is a very good stock. It quietly moves up over time, and the annual 1 for 10 bonus issues disguises the real growth. I'd like to find another similar stock too but no luck so far.

Gryffyn
01-03-2005, 09:03 PM
Try HBY

Gryffyn
02-03-2005, 08:54 AM
GPG02/03/2005DIVIDEND REL: 0901 HRS Guinness Peat Group Plc DIVIDEND: GPG: Full Year Dividend of 1pps Declared Guinness Peat Group Plc has provided an Appendix 7 in relation to a full yeardividend payment on Ordinary Shares (ISIN: GB0032163650). Dividend amount is1 pence per share. Record Date: 11 March 2005. Payment Date: 16 May 2005.End CA:00112219 For:GPG Type:DIVIDEND Time:2005-03-02:09:01:31

Gryffyn
02-03-2005, 03:27 PM
Some low volume recovery today. If I had any unallocated dosh I would have topped up today.

Gryffyn
10-03-2005, 07:29 AM
A bit more recovery yesterday thankfully. With the dollar likely to remain up this share isn't likely to take off quickly but is still my longer term pick for steady growth.

warthog
10-03-2005, 07:32 AM
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

A bit more recovery yesterday thankfully. With the dollar likely to remain up this share isn't likely to take off quickly but is still my longer term pick for steady growth.


If rates don't go up, you might see a wee dip in the kiwi. Cross is around 0.7330 right now.

Toddy
10-03-2005, 08:42 AM
Warthog, maybe next time.

warthog
10-03-2005, 08:51 AM
quote:Originally posted by Toddy

Warthog, maybe next time.


Sorry, missed that. The inference in my post was correct against both GBP and USD.

Snow Leopard
16-03-2005, 06:26 AM
quote:
TUR
15/03/2005
HALTRECQ

REL: 1827 HRS Turners & Growers Limited

HALTRECQ: TUR: Trading Halt of Ordinary Shares

NZX Regulation Announcement
Turners & Growers Limited ("TUR")
Trading Halt of Ordinary Shares

At the request of Turners & Growers Limited (TUR), NZX Regulation has granted
a trading halt in TUR ordinary shares to facilitate the sell down by Guinness
Peat Group Plc (GPG) of part of its shareholding in TUR. GPG intends to sell
up to 20,250,000 shares by way of an accelerated book build offering. Should
all these shares be placed, GPG will hold approximately 50.1% of all TUR
shares.

The trading halt will remain in place until 10am Friday 18 March 2005 unless
advised earlier by TUR.

ENDS
End CA:00112840 For:TUR Type:HALTRECQ Time:2005-03-15:18:27:13

Gryffyn
16-03-2005, 06:42 AM
Mmmm -wonder what they are thinking of doing with the proceeds? GPG alreday has a good war chest.

Disc: GPG

Snow Leopard
16-03-2005, 07:03 AM
Buy the rest of AUW[?] :D

shasta
16-03-2005, 07:06 AM
With Tenon looking to sell more Mills (article from todays Dominion Post), perhaps the TEN,RBC,GPG shake up will start, with Tenon sitting on a small warchest makes it a prime target for RBC/GPG, esp with Tony Gibbs involvement.

Happy to be holding GPG at present!

blackcap
16-03-2005, 07:12 AM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Buy the rest of AUW[?] :D


You could be right there. The SSH notice out yesterday shows that they already hold 31% of that company.

neopole
16-03-2005, 03:37 PM
GPG always look several years ahead when it comes to investment.in the 5 years i have been a holder, i have seen them go from agri to forestry to insurance. i'm picking their next target, will be NZ's lifesblood, and for that they need big dosh. so i can see a effort made to sell off all NZ assets at a similar time frame and jump into the energy market with the big boys.

Winston001
17-03-2005, 01:54 PM
I'm keen to buy more and hoping the current softness may go lower. Anyway, the dividend date was 11 March. Is this also the date for the (usual) bonus issue allocation?

Snow Leopard
17-03-2005, 02:24 PM
quote:Originally posted by Winston001

I'm keen to buy more and hoping the current softness may go lower. Anyway, the dividend date was 11 March. Is this also the date for the (usual) bonus issue allocation?

No.
And to anticipate your next question. 23rd May

regards

Sideshow Bob
22-03-2005, 09:28 PM
Share price edging lower - and can't really see any explanation for it - maybe write-downs, exchange rates, nervousness about Coats, following general tone of the market in the last week or two etc etc.

Might be a good time to top up pre-bonus! :D

Sideshow Bob

Snow Leopard
22-03-2005, 09:38 PM
you have plenty of time, so don't rush.;)

Sideshow Bob
22-03-2005, 09:46 PM
quote: Originally posted by Paper Tiger:

you have plenty of time, so don't rush.


Indeed - almost exactly two months. Anyway, have to find some spare cash from somewhere!!

Bit of a silly question, why do they pay 1p per share dividend? Is it tradition like the 1:10 bonus?


SSB

Snow Leopard
22-03-2005, 09:57 PM
1) yes
2) you can not invest in a dividend yielding stock if it pays no dividends* [tax man]. They do offer a dividend re-investment programme this year at 1 new per 80 held according to the announcement.

*Perhaps I had better clarify that. If it has no intention of ever paying a dividend. You can buy on the expectation of future dividends but if the company says it will never pay a divvy then it can get to be great fun, as an investor, later.

Sideshow Bob
22-03-2005, 10:02 PM
Thanks PT.

Gryffyn
23-03-2005, 09:28 AM
Spot on PT.

Recent weakness disappointing but most of market down a little - still in it for the longer term and may top-up.

Contrarian
06-04-2005, 09:47 PM
Gidday
In the prose of my daughter...
Like, what part of "BUY GPGGA" don't you understand,Like.

I like GPG and can't imagine being without them.

Gryffyn
07-04-2005, 06:44 AM
and I don't think you need to be a contrarian to have that view either ;)

with the dollar looking to be peaking and with their diversity of holdings, esp off-shore, I'm also not imagining being without GPG.

neopole
07-04-2005, 11:57 AM
hi,
when is the date of the 10 for 1 bonus ?
i looked at last years news but couldnt find it.
i think its about june, can some one help?

KJ
07-04-2005, 12:02 PM
23 May

limegreen
13-04-2005, 02:31 PM
1.6 mill through at 2.02 this afternoon, and Mr Gibbs has flicked off a million yesterday at 2.07...

limegreen
14-04-2005, 10:19 AM
I'm er, frankly shocked to be posting this. I don't even usually bother looking much at GPG. It's sort of ideal bottom draw investment territory. However, it's been looking a little sicker than usual of late. It's broken a long-term uptrend (after breaking a steeper one a year ago). It's through a major level of support at 2.20, and appears to be testing 2.00. It's through a 150 moving average, and the 365 moving average, which over a longer time frame would have served an investor well, is around 1.98. The OBV is also trending down for the first time in a decade. All in all, not such a great prognosis.
If it closes through $2, I think I'll have to seriously consider selling.

DISC: surprised

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/gpg14april05.gif

Phaedrus
14-04-2005, 06:32 PM
Limegreen, my GPG chart is essentially the same as yours. I don't see much scope here for alternate conclusions, so am surprised that you asked for my take on this. The only thing I would have added to your chart is a big red circle to draw attention to the big OBV drop on 21/1/05. On Balance Volume is usually a leading indicator and that was certainly the case here - this was some weeks before the price headed South.

The chart below shows the following 6 indicators :-
Trendline
Relative Strength Index
Moving Average
Trailing Stop
Directional Movement Indicator
Relative Momentum Index

The remarkable thing about this chart is that all six indicators triggered a Sell signal at essentially the same time. It is qiute rare to get this level of consensus using such a range of different indicators. Equally remarkably, their Buy signals were also in very close agreement.
I'm surprised that you are still holding!

http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/GPG414001.gif

k1w1
14-04-2005, 08:04 PM
Can I say as a fundy that I have major reservations about this stock and have exited. Currently it is a punt on the Coates turn around turning around.Historically with these guys this has always been a good bet.

However past performance as we know is no guarantee as to the future.There is not enough information in the public domain to test the validity of the positive noises coming from GPG management. A number of stockbrokers are also positive that Coates is currently undervalued. So they still have the confidence of some market watches.

This is an overpaid group of managers in a company with poor corporate governance. Recently the report card has had more fails and bare passes than we like. In NZ neither Turners & Growers or Tower have been outstanding turnarounds. Capral Aluminium has hit unexpected problems in Australia and its CEO has been sent packing. Other smaller Aussie investments are doing even worse. No longer is GPG investment a reliable guide that a current market turkey will fly.

Dividends are paid by inflating the amount of scrip available. Printing their own currency really as very little actual cash passes from management control to shareholders.Fine as long as you retain the confidence of the market.But should there be a change of sentiment there is a huge number of shares washing around out there.

Maybe Coates is the big bet that will rebalance the books. Maybe it isnt. How are you supposed to you know ?

Gryffyn
15-04-2005, 07:59 AM
k - hardly overpaid given the returns to shareholders to date. What would you base their pay on?

limegreen
15-04-2005, 09:30 AM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

I'm surprised that you are still holding!



Thanks for that. I think my TA is improving, but what I lack at the moment is discipline!! I've managed to make two very judicious sell calls in the last couple of months (NOGOC & FTX), both of which have saved me a mint (Huge thanks to you!). However, in each case, I've been a little slow to take action, leaving it for a couple of days to a week to make sure that my indicators really really are broken.

This is further exacerbated because GPG is my oldest holding (since '98) and the second stock I ever bought, and leaves me with a very young looking portfolio. It's treated me very well in that time. So perhaps, rather like your sale of SCT, I didn't want it to be true/struggled to believe it. Additionally, I've always had problems charting GPG (it misbehaves on bigcharts), plus it's treated me so well, that I haven't bothered to chart it very often.

Thus, I'm now left to consider whether i should see if support at $2 holds, or make a late exit.

Sideshow Bob
15-04-2005, 09:58 AM
Limegreen,

Thanks for your charts (and those of Phaedrus), which always find informative as a TA know nothing.

Notice that you have indicated the 1:10 bonus issue. Looking at the charts and past share price performance, wouldn't it be worth holding until after this, which is in about 5-6 weeks? Or do all the other indicators mean should sell anyway? Would have thought might have to take this into account.


Cheers
SSB

Ted2
15-04-2005, 09:59 AM
LG

I have similiar sentiments. GPG has been so good to me that I think I have had (and probably still do have) blind faith in Sir Ron, Tony et all, that they know far more than I do, and that their track record is so good.

Still, is their drop any more than the overall market? Are they just a result of the overall sentiment at the moment?

But if GPG is solid, Coates should be a good bet, and that it's only going down because the whole market is, a sell should still be considered because you can always buy back in when the signals are better?

Is this exactly what Phaedrus proves to us time and time again?

P - are you still holding most of your stocks or is the overall market trend reason enough to have got rid of many, even if there is no other reason for a particular stock going down than just being a victim of the overall market?

If what I think I'm saying is right, and if anyone can understand it, it seems that this is the perfect time to see the absolute merits of TA and Phaedrus's knowledge.

Yeah?

Cheers
Ted

limegreen
15-04-2005, 10:40 AM
Ted,

Interesting points. GPG has dropped more than some of the other stocks I hold. For example FBU only dropped around 10%, plus it was performing more strongly. GPG has been having a weak-ish year anyway. After all, the price is now the same as it was this time last year. If you sell, buying back in is always an option, and most of the triggers that GPG has hit are quite long-term indicators.

One of the only disadvantages I can see from selling is the DRiP. We've all got a few more shared coming out way in another month. On the other hand, if the price is $1.80 in another month, I think I'm a little less worried about that. EDIT: I've just read the annual report. I think you can elect to receive the divi as cash until early May, if you're worried about brokerage on selling the DRiP proceeds

Bob, the annual split doesn't really have any material effect, other than to keep the stock appear cheaper. You'll also notice that the previous two years, it's had no consistent effect on the share price.

k1w1
15-04-2005, 03:00 PM
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

k - hardly overpaid given the returns to shareholders to date. What would you base their pay on?


Berkshire Hathaway.

15-04-2005, 03:01 PM
Alot seem to think it went Ex bonus at the same time it went ex dividend

k1w1
15-04-2005, 03:01 PM
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

k - hardly overpaid given the returns to shareholders to date. What would you base their pay on?


Berkshire Hathaway.

k1w1
15-04-2005, 03:03 PM
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

k - hardly overpaid given the returns to shareholders to date. What would you base their pay on?


Berkshire Hathaway.

limegreen
15-04-2005, 03:51 PM
I'm out. So much for support at $2.

Placebo
15-04-2005, 03:51 PM
LG: Given the price is the same as last year and they do a 1 for 10 split, you're actually up 10 percent? Correct me if I'm wrong.

Interesting observation the other day, when I plotted by portfolio's performance on a month-to-month basis, the lines of four of my stocks (I have six) all described identical downward paths (CEN, AIA, WAM, FBU). Now, none of those shares had any particular news of note, the only common factor was the interest rate rise and general market sentiment.

Oddly enough, the one I was sweating on the most (SKC) showed the least reduction in the period...

Funny old world

limegreen
15-04-2005, 04:04 PM
Your point with reference to the split is a valid one. I hold FBU & WAM, but while the market is generally weak, there is no falling OBV etc. for those stocks. Also, although I know that I've held GPG over a longer term than say FBU & WAM, GPG was slowly becoming a weaker and weaker part of my portfolio. I'd happily consider buying back in, but I'd want to see some signs of returning strength. Assuming it dips below $1.90, I'll be up if I do end up buying back in.

I purchased on August 14 1998, and calculated as annualised interest compounded monthly (so as to be comparable with the floating component of my mortgage), I've made 13.76% per annum. Not spectacular, but it's more than made up for some poorer ill-informed calls from the past.

Phaedrus
16-04-2005, 08:48 PM
Ted2 - You ask "Are you still holding most of your stocks or is the overall market trend reason enough to have got rid of many, even if there is no other reason for a particular stock going down than just being a victim of the overall market?"
Ted, I sell purely on the technical aspects of each individual stock. As such, I do not concern myself with the "reasons" (known or unknown) for the weakness triggering the Sell. I worry about the overall market trend when/if buying, but do not attempt to factor that in when selling. I would not get rid of any stock on the basis of an overall market trend downward.
So, I am still holding stocks like AIA, WAM, CEN. I have sold down others like FBU. I have completely sold out of FPA, NPX, STU and the like, including GPG of course - as per the chart in this thread.
If you look at the individual charts I have posted for these stocks, I believe you could tell exactly when or if I have sold, and, more importantly, why.

Gryffyn
27-04-2005, 02:40 PM
Heads up.

If you've elected to receive script instead of divvies then my reading of the documents suggest that it is better to revoke your script mandate this year as the share price has fallen since the calculations etc.

Gryffyn
29-04-2005, 04:03 PM
GPG
29/04/2005
GENERAL

REL: 0856 HRS Guinness Peat Group Plc

GENERAL: GPG: Information regarding Subsidiary

Guinness Peat Group plc

The following unaudited results of Coats Group Limited ("the Company") for
the year to 31 December 2004 are released by Guinness Peat Group plc ("GPG")
for information only. The Company, which became a subsidiary of GPG on 1
April 2004, is the holding company of the Coats Group. The operations of the
Coats Group comprise almost entirely the operations of Coats Holdings
Limited, previously named Coats Ltd, which was acquired by the Company's
subsidiary, Coats plc, on 7 April 2003.

Richard Russell
Company Secretary
Guinness Peat Group plc

28 April 2005

Contact:
Blake Nixon (UK) 020 7484 3370
Gary Weiss (Australia) 00 61 2 8298 4302
Tony Gibbs (New Zealand) 0064 9 379 8888

28 April 2005

Coats Group Limited: unaudited results* for the year to 31 December 2004

Financial Summary

2004
US$m
Like-for-like1
2003
US$m Period ended
31 December
2003
US$m
Turnover - Thread
- Total 1,588
1,712 1,535 1,139
1,236

Operating profit before reorganisation, impairment
of fixed assets, goodwill amortisation and
exceptional items - Thread
- Total 105
103 110 94
89

Operating Profit 36 69

Pre-tax (loss)/profit (4) 47

Net cash inflow from operating activities 200 135

Capital expenditure 94 47

Net debt 402 672

Net gearing 86% 193%

1 The 2003 like-for-like comparatives include a full twelve months for 2003
and exclude the impact of exchange translation, acquisitions and disposals.

*See note 8 for basis of preparation of this statement.

Contacts:
Roger Bevan Coats plc 020 8210 5000
Blake Nixon Guinness Peat Group plc 020 7484 3370

Chairman's statement

Results

In 2004, Coats Group Limited, in line with its operational objectives,
delivered an exceptionally strong cash performance, albeit at the expense of
underlying profit which was slightly lower.

Net cash inflow from operating activities was US$199.7 million, including
US$93.0 million due to improved management of working capital, and net debt
was reduced by US$270.8 million. Although cash generation was the main
priority, good progress was made in sales. Good growth of industrial thread
in low-cost markets and strong crafts sales in North America more than offset
the expected continued decline in industrial thread markets in Western Europe
and North America. Overall, like-for-like growth in sales was 3% (see
Operating and financial review), with 6% in crafts and 2% in industrial.

The main disappointment was a slight decrease in underlying Thread operating
margin - from 7.2% to 6.6% (as set out in the Operating and financial review)
- due almost entirely to a sharp decline in activity in certain Western
European industrial thread plants, as a result of accelerated migration of
customers to low-cost regions and our stock reduction program. This offset
benefits from earlier reorganisation projects. All other regions outside
Europe delivered underlying growth in operating profit.

The Company became a subsidiary of Guinness Peat Group plc on 1 April 2004.
The operations of the Coats Group ("the Group") comprise almost entirely the
operations of Coats Holdings Ltd, previously named Coats Ltd, which was
acquired by the Company's subsidiary, Coats plc, on 7 April 2003. The
reported comparative figures in the profit and loss and cash flow statements
for 2003 therefore reflect Coats Holdings operations since that date. However
in order to assist understanding of changes in underlying trading
performance, pro-forma full year figures for 2003 have been provided in the
segmental analysis in the Operating and financial review.

Investment, reor

Gryffyn
29-04-2005, 04:04 PM
And agan about the divvy / script - anyone else taking the cash over the script?

Gryffyn
29-04-2005, 04:05 PM
Market seems to be reacting favourably to the result.

coge
29-04-2005, 04:10 PM
Well since you asked, I've taken cash this time.

Convenience was the main consideration. What's your take on the announcement, Gryff?

Gryffyn
29-04-2005, 04:12 PM
Still digesting it - and regardless of my own take the market's opinion is of course the one that counts ;)

Took cash also.

limegreen
29-04-2005, 04:26 PM
I took cash. Although the fact that I'm currently not holding was a strong impact on this decision....

Still watching closely.

k1w1
30-04-2005, 05:53 PM
Their new management hasn't been able to significantly increase sales
or hold margins. The profits from sale of redundant properties are being swallowed by "cash reorganisation costs". No significant improvements are forecast for this year. Shareholders are asked to hold till 2006 to see the benefits.

Unlocking the value is proving not to be a bit trickier than the market first thought when it first rewarded the Sp on the news of the acquisiton cf Capral Aluminium situation.
As Warren Buffett said, the problem with turnarounds is that some of them don't.

Still this management has a good track record for getting runs on the Board, and the market is prepared to be patient on this basis.

Lizard
30-04-2005, 07:27 PM
Personally, I sold a few on this result. Got a nice upbeat report from the broker on it a few hours later... :)

Gryffyn
01-05-2005, 08:06 AM
Agree K1w1. The relocation to China will take time to show some benefits. With its warchest handy I thnk GPG are stil a hold tp accumulate.

Disc: GPG

KJ
01-05-2005, 08:35 AM
I exited a couple of weeks ago...in current market I felt it may be unwise to be in once it goes ex bonus issue...who knows?

Gryffyn
04-05-2005, 11:24 AM
Nice steady recovery beyond $2 albeit at lowish volumes.

coge
04-05-2005, 02:42 PM
Well, well over 3% now, & I thought everybody forgot about recapitalisation. [8D]

Gryffyn
04-05-2005, 02:58 PM
It's all good - almost makes up for this mroning's footy result.

Gryffyn
06-05-2005, 03:53 PM
GPG, holding its own in a sea of red this week.

ekman
06-05-2005, 06:36 PM
What will happen to the sp of GPG when Ron B. decides to really retire? Do the other directors really have the knowledge and discipline to carry on. Maybe Ron B has already stepped back in a way as for by the look of the new investments to date in Australia and lack of new investments in UK the company does not seem to have to much upside part from the Coats investments?

Ekman

Gryffyn
07-05-2005, 10:16 AM
Yes, messrs Gibbs and co are quite capable.

Gryffyn
23-05-2005, 04:42 PM
Nice rise after split. Will be interesting to see where the sp finds its new level.

coge
23-05-2005, 09:04 PM
Looks a bit bullish, may be back to $2.00 in short order.

Redeeming my remaining CLN's to ords at 43.5p. I thought of the cash, but this was the better deal. Got 8% for my trouble too. [8D]

"the money or the ords?"

Gryffyn
24-05-2005, 09:40 AM
Hey ho and up she rises! $2 may be a bit optimistic but if it sits above 190 for a while its done well.

Allan
25-05-2005, 10:26 AM
can any one please enlighten me re GPG ASX where the price closed on the 16th May 17 cents down from the last close, and NZX on the 23rd May close was down 18 cents from the last close. I would expect to see a mirror immage.

Snow Leopard
25-05-2005, 10:48 AM
1) different record dates for bonus issue
2) look in a mirror

Gryffyn
25-05-2005, 11:27 AM
or 3 - Forex difference

shasta
25-05-2005, 11:35 AM
Alan, Every year it drops post bonus & then slowly creeps back, & with the the corporate activity likely with GPG in the 2nd half of the year, some more good news will send it back over $2.00.

Remember when the SP was at $2.20 & an article on the stuff website site put another $0.45-0.50 cents per share on this & many brokers have picked it as the top share for 2005.

We still have AWM, Tower, Turners & Growers, Rubicon/Tenon to all play out yet....

...and thats just the NZ assets!

Gryffyn
25-05-2005, 05:00 PM
Plus a small stake in Tattersalls or whatever via another Sir Ron vehicle - Rattray holdings. The man's a legend.

coge
25-05-2005, 05:46 PM
Rattoon holdings? They was a story in yesterdays Dom post. Tattersalls are an Aussie gaming company.

Gryffyn
25-05-2005, 05:53 PM
Rattoon! That was it thanks. Yes, GPG have 13% of Rattoon or is it that Rattoon have 13% of Tattersalls and GPG have more of the former. Damn short-term memory. Where's my vodka...

coge
25-05-2005, 07:12 PM
Short term memory is way over rated, Gryff!
I seem to recall GPG & Rattoon both have stakes in Tattersall, with GPG having the larger. Don't ask me to quote percentages.

Gryffyn
25-05-2005, 07:20 PM
The whole Tattersall thing seems very lucrative - essentially a close shop held by heirs and ex-employess that is effectively doing a book build. Won't be a listed company but a dominat one in its sector. GPG/Rattoon snapping up small holdings etc.

25-05-2005, 08:36 PM
Gryffyn Tatttersalls is expecting to become a full listed company. The nigger in the woodpile is the proposed changes to Victorian gaming laws. My Opinion tread carefully.

Gryffyn
25-05-2005, 09:00 PM
Off the wire...

Gryffyn
25-05-2005, 09:02 PM
Rattoon fails in Tattersall’s bid

25.05.05

SYDNEY - Rattoon Holdings, an Australian investment company backed by corporate raider Sir Ron Brierley, has failed in a bid to acquire a 5 per cent stake in soon-to-be-floated gaming company Tattersall’s Holdings.

Rattoon’s preemptive A$100 million ($107 million) offer, which closed at midnight on Monday, was undersubscribed, with Rattoon spending only A$2.6 million, chairman Hugh Henderson said yesterday.

Rattoon already held a 0.5 per cent stake before the offer.

"They hadn’t taken our offer up ... because they believed they’d be better waiting until June 1, when they get shares rather than their notional units," said Henderson.

A "third party" had made a A$60 million offer to beneficiaries at a price higher than Rattoon’s, although to his knowledge that offer had also been rejected.

Stakeholders in Tattersall’s are being wooed even before the prospectus for the A$2.1 billion float, which could happen as soon as July, has been posted.

Tattersall’s currently operates under a will founder George Adams made before his death in 1904 and represents the interest of around 2500 beneficiaries of the estate in Australia and England.

"It’s a weird one. You’re dealing with a sort of closed entity. They’re all family members and they all talk to each other. They’re precious - they’ve had this forever and it’s like a little club," said Henderson.

Ahead of the float, Tattersall’s beneficiaries will receive private shares in place of their units on June 1. Unlike the units, they can be exchanged without going through trustees of the estate.

Rattoon, in which Brierley’s Guinness Peat Group holds a 13 per cent stake, said its offer of A$22 a unit represented a 15 per cent premium over a A$3 a share indicative float price for Tattersall’s.

Tattersall’s, which expects to post the float prospectus around June 2, is expected to have 700 million shares on issue.

Trustees of Tattersall’s have made their own pre-float sell-down offer of cash to beneficiaries, saying those who accepted would receive the same price institutional investors paid in the float.

Tattersall’s holds gaming licences in Victoria as well as licences to run lotteries in four Australian jurisdictions, and businesses in Fiji and the Cook Islands.

- REUTERS

Gryffyn
25-05-2005, 09:03 PM
and from the past...

Gryffyn
25-05-2005, 09:04 PM
Sir Ron takes a punt

21.07.2004

Guinness Peat Group's Sir Ron Brierley is gambling with his loose change. A notice to the ASX reveals Brierley holds 1 million shares - issued at 25Ac each - in Rattoon, an investor in gaming giant Tattersalls.

Gryffyn
25-05-2005, 09:05 PM
12.04.05

SYDNEY - Rattoon Holdings, an Australian investment company backed by corporate raider Sir Ron Brierley, is offering the private shareholders of Tattersall’s Holdings a 15 per cent premium to the gaming group’s expected float price.

The offer of A$100 million ($107.5 million) to unit holders, representing a 5 per cent stake, comes as Tattersall’s prepares for a A$2.1 billion float of the 125-year-old private estate by June.

Based in Victoria, Tattersall’s operates under a will founder George Adams made before his death in 1904 and represents the interest of around 2500 beneficiaries in Australia and England.

"Rattoon is offering beneficiaries the opportunity to sell to Rattoon their interest in Tattersall’s for cash, now, on a confidential basis and at a premium price," the company said.

Sir Ron Brierley’s Guiness Peat Group holds a 13 per cent stake in Rattoon.

"Should they float, we will pass on all of the shares that we will be holding in species to our shareholders," Rattoon chairman Hugh Henderson said in a telephone interview.

Tattersall’s is expected to issue around 700 million shares at an indicative float price of A$3 a share.

Rattoon’s offer, which is open until May 23, was for around A$3.45 a share, a premium of 15 per cent, Henderson said.

"It lets us get a bigger spread of shares. They’re going to be very difficult to get at the IPO [initial public offering]. They’re not issuing a big percentage of shares," he said.

Henderson said Rattoon was formed as an investment house seeking out large private corporations it considered undervalued.

"Our appetite was not particularly for gaming," he said.

Rattoon planned to offer its large investors shares in Tattersall’s they wouldn’t otherwise get.

- REUTERS

Gryffyn
25-05-2005, 09:08 PM
However, it seems to have ended, if not in tears, then in rejection. With their hand haing been tipped it not likely that they will score a quick bargain.

Will be interesting to see if offer is upped at all - but looks like running out of time.

coge
26-05-2005, 12:38 PM
Typical GPG would present the same offer again. Since Rattoon's offer was catastrophically undersubscribed, a similar plan is unlikely.

Gryffyn
26-05-2005, 02:31 PM
No harm in trying for an easy buck I guess!

Gryffyn
02-06-2005, 02:52 PM
Tattersall's to list on Australian stock exchange


02.06.05 1.00pm

MELBOURNE - Australia's biggest privately-owned company, gaming giant Tattersall's, is expected to list on the Australian Stock Exchange in early July after a A$2.03 billion ($2.20 billion) float.

Tattersall's said in a prospectus lodged today that retail investors could apply for shares at A$2.90 per share.

The company will have about 700 million shares on issue at the time of listing.

Beneficiaries and staff of the company will take up 600 million shares and 100 million new shares will be offered to the public.

The retail share offer is expected to open on June 10 and close on June 29.

A final price will be established for the shares following an institutional bookbuild to be conducted from July 4 to July 5.

"Listing on the ASX will provide new opportunities to write the next chapters in the history of Tattersall's," Tattersall's chairman David Jones said.

Tattersall's chief executive Duncan Fischer said listing would provide Tattersall's with greater access to capital for expansion and help the company position itself for gaming and lottery licences.

"It will allow us to build even further on our strong brands, our reputation of trust and integrity, and our deep and long experience in the gaming and lotteries industries," Mr Fischer said.

Tattersall's is forecasting total revenue of A$2.52 billion for the year ending June 30, 2006, with total earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda) of A$228.8 million.

Tattersall's is expected to have a market capitalisation of A$2.03 billion on listing.

Tattersall's has had to restructure from a private entity with about 2,500 beneficiaries into a corporate entity before beginning the process to list on the ASX.

Tattersall's had been expected to float on the ASX late last year but it was delayed by opposition from the trust's beneficiaries and the need to secure favourable rulings in relation to the restructure from the Australian Tax Office.

Tattersall's holds one of two gaming machine licences in Victoria, has keno operations in a joint venture with Tabcorp, and operates the lottery in Victoria, the Northern Territory and Tasmania.

Tattersall's operates about 13,500 poker machines in Victoria.

- AAP

Gryffyn
02-06-2005, 02:53 PM
No mention of the rattoon bid etc or existing stakes.

Gryffyn
08-06-2005, 07:48 AM
As a GPG stalwart myself I like your sentiment but see no reason why it will crack $3 next year. Do you have any basis for that other than sheer hope?

gulf
08-06-2005, 10:42 AM
$3 sounds good to me,but we would have to see something right out of the bag regarding Coats for this to happen.I don't see Coats turning around this quickly or being sold in the near future.

shasta
08-06-2005, 11:33 AM
i'm with you on this Gryffyn, lets get back over the $2.00 mark first, then some more resistance at around $2.20 odd!

Gryffyn
08-06-2005, 01:51 PM
yes, irrational ramping helps no one. this is a good share that edges up and then, with an announcement here or there, jumps again as investments pay off

Gryffyn
08-06-2005, 03:40 PM
Well I hope you're right and we realists have egg all over our faces then ;)

Gryffyn
08-06-2005, 03:41 PM
PS - welcome to ST and all that.

Gryffyn
08-06-2005, 05:01 PM
BTW, isn't cujodog a bit of a tautology?

Paddie
08-06-2005, 06:29 PM
Has GPG been above $3?

Not since I have been following it?

Maybe in their earlier days?

Paddie

Gryffyn
08-06-2005, 07:34 PM
With the constant splits they aim for liquidity.

Base Trader
08-06-2005, 11:19 PM
New to the forum.

But I like the Coates purchase for GPG and in my opinion will offer value over the medium to longer term. It contains a number of "misfit" assets, which have the potential to be realised at above balance sheet. In addition, the core thread operations are very well placed. The crafts business is simply a good margin business going through a renaissance in the US and to some degree Europe. There appears more upside than downside in value in this business at present and for the medium term. The lack of strong competitor to Coates here bodes well.

On the industrial thread segment - this should strengthen from restructure. Analysts frequently underestimate the impact of credit losses and write offs from cancelled orders on margins (MTM losses against cotton thread orders on cotton price +). General credit has tightened to mills and textile producers in the past 2 years from the cotton traders and other thread/specialist producers - and if Coates can piggy back this they will likely improve margins. However, instituting tighter business practices can be an internal nightmare - so we will see but I am broadly positive as this is GPG's bag.

Fundamentally - I have faith in GPG and their current profile and there appears no underlying technicals that change my mind over short or medium term.

Disc: GPG shareholder.

shasta
09-06-2005, 06:47 AM
Hi Base Trader & welcome to ST!

GPG has a few things on the go at present & not just Coates, which is of course it's biggest investment.

Rattoon with there gaming play in Oz & the whole Tenon/Rubicon saga to play out, & there is still more upside in Tower.

Coates remains the joker in the pack, it could be another PRG "Powerhouse" or the great creator of wealth for GPG shareholders.

A falling $US will bring about the whole Tenon play with Rubicon & on the back of no unexpected news i'd expect GPG to lift another 10 - 15% cps between now & the end of the year.

Disc: Very happy holder, looking to accummulate on weakness <$1.90

Gryffyn
09-06-2005, 08:13 AM
Hey BT - are you really in Marlow UK? I lived & worked there for a bit in the dot-com boom. Great but expensive place.

Good to have another serious GPG investor on board.

whatsup
09-06-2005, 09:15 AM
Hey BT great to have a "insider"on board,what did you say was/is your "job" in the GPG organisation?

coge
09-06-2005, 02:25 PM
Goodness, my Guinness! (Peat)

Up over 3%. Sterling stuff chaps.

-coge

k1w1
09-06-2005, 02:49 PM
Why does this thread remind me of The Emporers New Clothes (no pun intended) ?

Gryffyn
09-06-2005, 03:34 PM
I don't know, why does it?

Gryffyn
09-06-2005, 03:36 PM
Up 5c last time I looked! Now I know I was trying to put the dampers on some recent enthusiasm but am happy to be proved wrong like this :-)

Disc: GPG

Gryffyn
09-06-2005, 03:38 PM
Not especially large volume though is it. Probably just adjustments for currency having peaked with rate call this arvo.

Ted2
09-06-2005, 04:03 PM
GPG doesn't usually go up without a good reason.
What the reason is I have no idea but I like it. :D:D:D

PS. Maybe people have finally realised it is a $3 share! [:p]

Gryffyn
09-06-2005, 05:35 PM
Look guys, it's like cricket commentary - you'll put the mockers on them.

Trick is to quietly look the other way and before you know it, it will have crept back past $2.

Base Trader
09-06-2005, 06:35 PM
Reply to Gryffyn - I actually live in Bisham (Bisham Abbey) and unfortunately I work in London.

The area is now the UK's most expensive for property and long lunches.

As for GPG - I do not work for GPG but I completed due diligence on the large fabric maker/textiler (USD4.2bn) in 2003 so I learnt a thing or two about the industry structure.

whatsup
09-06-2005, 07:08 PM
Base T ---,Great to get an honest reply, I guess "we" can bounce situations re Coats off you as the drama unfolds as GPG puts its business play into action in the coming years as it realises value for all share holders.

Gryffyn
09-06-2005, 08:07 PM
Cheers BT. I fondly remember many a long lager lunch out that way. Our carpark had an Aston Martin DB7, a Maserati, 2 Ferraris and an assortment of lesser German brands starting with B, M or P (none of them mine - I was two-wheel based in those days).

Whenever I want to consider the irrationality of the market I just remind myself that idiot investors in the 90s paid for most of my lifestyle then and now.

Gryffyn
09-06-2005, 08:09 PM
I personally see GPG continuing to deliver as they have over the years. They were/are great buying as a hedeg in the inevitable NZ$ drop and GPGs cheaply acquired warchest.

Disc: GPG

Base Trader
09-06-2005, 08:22 PM
There is a lot of faith required with GPG because of the nature of the diversified investment activity but they are operating in a field which is particularly bouyant at present. That is small scale M&A - typically private equity. There is a global reflation trend in this market based on low interest rates and large amounts of private equity at present so well segmented and marketed business are finding buyers.

Coates is certainly a concentration risk - but it was an opportunity and what looks like a good one.

I rate GPG over the medium term and note their historic CAGR - hence why I have invested. It is certainly not my largest holding but it is more than just nominal. My time horizon is 3-5 years.

Base Trader
09-06-2005, 08:48 PM
FYI - my strength are commodities. Gas, Oil and products, base metals and some Ag (chielfy softs & grains). Regions are Nth America and India. Due diligence and market structures specialty.

I trade fundamentally but respect the technicals. Value most purchases (but are sometimes lazy) based upon earnings multiples, DCF if it looks to provide more insight (i.e. cashflow variability) and I use real option pricing (mean reverting Black Scholes model) at times for single commodity and currency exposure companies. Finally there is patience.

I am a NZer but have spent only 2 of the last 10 years there.

shasta
10-06-2005, 06:31 AM
Cheers Gryffyn, there goes my top up opportunities for now, lets roll on & beyond $2, meanwhile i seek further investment opportunities elsewhere for now.

Gryffyn
10-06-2005, 08:22 AM
BT - if you're living in the UK do you then support a P'ship team...

Gryffyn
10-06-2005, 03:46 PM
And another couple of cents so far today. $2 how soon anyone?

shasta
10-06-2005, 04:04 PM
Next time they announce a purchase/sale it'll spike back to pre bonus levels.

I'm picking some more info before 30 June & will put $2.10 - 2.15 out there.

Base Trader
10-06-2005, 06:48 PM
Gryf - p'ship team? I am not sure if you mean the Lions or a Big 4 Consultancy. Anyway the answer to both is I support the All Blacks with a passion and I work for an Investment Bank.

CJ
10-06-2005, 06:52 PM
BT, I think he is talking football (soccer). You cant have been in the UK long enough.

Base Trader
10-06-2005, 06:57 PM
I formerly lived by Craven Cottage and they gave me season tickets so we would not complain about the use of our front garden as a urinal. So I have a passing interest in Fulham. But I continue to support Rugby and hold season tickets to Wasps.

Sideshow Bob
10-06-2005, 08:58 PM
As a bit of an aside, back in my younger days on the OE, wotk at the Crabtree, closest pub to Craven Cottage.

Think that was back when Fulham were back in the 3rd division. Football days were a bit of bedlam!

SSB

Base Trader
10-06-2005, 09:08 PM
Crabtree has gone "up market" now with a flashed up beer garden, hardwood tables and a new "gastro pub" menu. But scratch the surface on a Saturday afternoon and it receeds back to its roots. Lager and lots of it!

FYI - Offline next week.

Crusader
10-06-2005, 09:58 PM
Im a Kiwi over here also Basetrader. London is a fantastic place - have been enjoying Jewel in Picadilly in recent weeks as well as On Anon.

Living out in Zone 2 and commuting into the city each day - Moorgate offices.

Life here certainly is fast paced - haven't as yet spent a winter here, so we'll see if I think this is still a great city come November!

Crusader.

The GrandMaster
10-06-2005, 10:37 PM
I live just across the river from the Cottage. Actually went there last night to watch Aust play All Whites (though I didn't urinate on anyone's front garden). A bit embaressing really, though we only lost 1-0. The Jolly Gardeners is my favourite Putney local....

Bobby
11-06-2005, 05:28 AM
Also living in Zone 2 - thankfully only have to goe 3 stops to get into Moorgate as well. Heading into the Toast NZ food and wne festival tomorrow which will be a laugh

Gryffyn
11-06-2005, 07:38 AM
quote:Originally posted by CJ

BT, I think he is talking football (soccer). You cant have been in the UK long enough.

Well spotted that man. "I didn't get where I was today..." :)

Gosh we have a lot of expats on this site. We'll get renamed old friends before we know it.

Gryffyn
15-06-2005, 08:09 AM
As pointed out on the AIR thread... UBS have a target of 2.39 for GPG

Small investors take refuge in sure bets
13 June 2005

By TERRY HALL
Sensing tougher times ahead, investors have switched from backing hares to betting on tortoises – sure and steady companies that offer earnings reliability.

This is typified by Fletcher Building, led by chief executive Ralph Waters. Like others in its category, its share price has recovered sharply from the nasty March-April slide.

Others considered to have suitable defensive characteristics are Contact Energy, Telecom, Baycorp Advantage, Waste Management and Auckland International Airport.

The switch in sentiment is in stark contrast to the December-February bull market when it seemed companies could do no wrong. Since then several have issued profit warnings, or advised the market to reduce earnings expectations, primarily because of tougher market conditions.

Most companies are encountering strong demand, but profit margins are under pressure because of the residential slowdown in Australia, rising cost pressures, including labour, increasing competition and the strength of the kiwi dollar.

The unexpected severity of the March-April share-price slump seems to have knocked the confidence of many small investors, who, according to stock exchange data, have become less active.

In contrast, fund managers seem more optimistic. They have not only been buoyed by a healthier Wall Street, but by the Budget, which, in theory at least, should encourage increasing numbers of Kiwis to save with funds rather than try do-it-yourself investing.

In effect, the Government has yielded to pressure from the savings industry to provide a more level playing field, though the change won't fully come into force till April 1, 2007. As things stand, individual investors, who are not classified as traders, are not subject to capital gains taxes – though institutions are. This lowered their returns, discouraging people to invest with them.

In the past few years many people have cashed up their funds, feeling they could do better by direct investing on their own behalf.

I'm told many have done exceptionally well – though some may have had their confidence dented by this year's rollercoaster sharemarket performance. Many stocks reached all-time highs from December to February: this was followed by severe falls. Subsequently, many share prices have recovered much, but not all, of their losses.

Fletcher Building is fairly typical – so far this year it has fallen from a high of $7.70 to as low as $5.80 before rebounding. On Friday's weaker market it closed down 4 cents at $6.46.

While the Budget was seen as good news for fund managers, it wasn't for everyone. Jason Wong, an economist with First NZ Capital, says capital gains tax creates a new distortion, by tilting the playing field in favour of managed funds and leaving individuals who actively trade shares still having to pay capital gains taxes.
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Other measures in the Budget that should be positive for New Zealand equities in the medium to long term include tax changes on overseas share portfolio investments, and the workplace-based savings scheme KiwiSaver.

That said, it remains to be seen how many people will cash in overseas investments and reinvest in the local sharemarket. They could spend it on property instead. It also seems unlikely that the KiwiSaver scheme – while a step in the right direction – will be a major success unless returns are enhanced.

Hopefully these measures will add to the number of positives for Kiwi shares – including increasing share buying by the Cullen Fund, and an economy that should continue to favour equities even when economic growth slows.

The market recovery has led to a modest lift in sentiment among some analysts and strategists, who have re-evaluated their recommendations in the light of later profit results and discussions with companies.

However, others remain distinctly downbeat, warning of a lot more profit downgrades to come, and expect

coge
15-06-2005, 10:03 AM
Restrictions on Chinese textile imports to the EU are set to continue until 2008. Just a few days ago this was uncertain. I'd say this will be useful to Coats' euro operations.[^]

BT whats your take on this?

Roll on $2.00+.

Gryffyn
15-06-2005, 01:08 PM
only 2c away from that coge :-)

Crusader
16-06-2005, 12:34 AM
Hope you enjoyed Toast NZ Bobby. I was also there and thought it was a great day, (what I can remember) - only disappointment was the Beef bugers were Australian beef and not NZ Beef. After lining up for a good 10 minutes and spending 12 Kiwi's on it, i was somewhat disappointed to learn this! The beef they sell at Sainsbury's and M&S just isnt like the good stuff back home!

Great day nonetheless. Goldenhorse were good - would have been brilliant to have had someone like Jordan Luck there though! Clapham wasnt too bad that night either.

Where abouts at Moorgate are you working?

Crusader

Placebo
16-06-2005, 09:57 AM
Gryff, thanks for the Terry Hall piece, always useful to have such market overview articles. Couple of comments:

UBS say they have outperformed the market by 2.62 percent. Such runaway success!:D Don't know if I'd be crowing about that as a huge result.

Hall comments that many people withdrew from managed funds to do DIY investing, and have had their confidence rocked by the March-April downturn. One thing he didn't say was any managed funds in NZ would have experienced exactly the same thing, and portfolios would now be in negative territory, but with a DIY approach you could potentially be ahead.

Gryffyn
17-06-2005, 04:51 PM
Well that was a good week :)

Gryffyn
18-06-2005, 08:55 AM
Indeed, had some with a lovely bernaise sauce and damn good merlot last night at a fine establishment in town.

Base Trader
20-06-2005, 11:40 PM
Coge. Just back on line today.

The benefit of Coates is their Global coverage so their write down on those assets may not be as great. However, the effect of the EU restrictions is by no means certain and I have doubts it will slow the Chinese mills and textile industry.

The effect on cashflow is uncertain at best - I just cannot guess on the info I have available. However, we may see less of a provision on the write down via rationalisation of EU assets that would have been budgeted previously as their cashflow is supported out to 2008 (3 years longer than expected). This will add to profits in the short term. However, always worthwhile reading through these to an EBITDA/cash flow level.

BT

coge
21-06-2005, 09:06 AM
Thanks BT.

I guess I was thinking that Coates had heavy exposure in an historic sense. The global & recent Chinese venture is a bit like having a bob each way.

Recently they've been lumbered with disproportionate fines in the EU, hopefully the rationalisation can clear this up. Or better still a successful appeal, GPG style.

-coge

Gryffyn
20-07-2005, 08:44 AM
Creeping up again as it always seems to do post split.

shasta
20-07-2005, 11:30 AM
Gryffyn, I wonder whether its a few looking to benefit from Third Avenues increased shareholding into Rubicon, & the upcoming play for Tenon, with GPG & Perry Corp each with just < 20% & Third Avenue & AMP with 10% blocking stakes each, which ever way this goes GPG will come out a winner.

Am thinking of dabbling in Rubicon for a double whammy on this play.

Gryffyn
20-07-2005, 02:37 PM
Good thinking! I was allowing for a little exchange rate appreciation but of course these boys have many fingers in many pies.

Disc: GPG

Gryffyn
20-07-2005, 02:38 PM
PS Shasta - get yourself a P'ship fantasy team and join the NZ ShareTraders league.

shasta
20-07-2005, 06:23 PM
Cheers Gryffyn i'll look into it

Gryffyn
21-07-2005, 11:03 AM
Cool, we'll see you online sometime then.

Gryffyn
22-07-2005, 01:20 PM
Hey Basetrader, as you seem to have your finger on the GPG pulse, can you quantify any revaluing of the Yuan with respect to GPG ops there?

My gut feel is that they've completed most of their setting up there so the timing is good but not really sure total value of their Coates ops there.

Disc: GPG

Base Trader
22-07-2005, 08:43 PM
Very little really on this rise.

It will increase the value of Chinese imports to other nations as valued in USD only by the Chinese value added component. For many businesses such as Coates – this means labour. If you are financially leveraged in Yuan this will add to costs and this will hit many Chinese companies harder as a result. However, reval just over 2% is not much and will have minimal effect in my opinion. The fact that the Chinese will now act may have more effect – in the form of currency speculation.

For Coates they purchase cotton mainly and other thread fabrics - which is a USD traded commodity as their key COGS - as well as energy etc (all USD based). Their internally denominated cost base is relatively small (i.e labour). So the marginal cost increase will be a small fraction. Bears Stern estimated that a 10% increase in currency valuation would only have a 1.4% increase in import costs for the US from China. The effect for a business likel Coates will be far less.

I would at this stage like to make one point. That is analysts have all talked about this sleeping Gorilla of consumer spending in China. Until moves like this to increase their purchasing power are undertaken – the Gorilla will remain sleeping. It may have a minimal effect on internal Chinese textile purchases.

The small Yuan reval may also soften attitudes to tariffs in next negotiations and I am sure the Chinese will be pressing this poi

Base Trader
22-07-2005, 08:46 PM
Of course the reval of the Yuan may increase cotton and energy prices as a result of their significant market position. But that is the same for everyone.

Gryffyn
23-07-2005, 06:49 AM
Cheers.

Gryffyn
04-08-2005, 11:37 AM
HY results tend to be out late August.

SP has been nice and firm and creeping up a cent or so a week.

Gryffyn
04-08-2005, 11:38 AM
HY results tend to be out late August.

SP has been nice and firm and creeping up a cent or so a week.

gulf
04-08-2005, 01:36 PM
Thanks for that.It will be interesting to see the Coats progress

Gryffyn
04-08-2005, 03:39 PM
Indeed. Maybe still too early to see real returns yet but BT is our (non) resident expert and better placed to comment.

Base Trader
04-08-2005, 06:39 PM
The cotton millers are making money this year and are not defaulting. Habedashery market remains firm so I do not need markets tripping up Coates. However, they are in a change environment - so there is always uncertainty.

I am divesting BCA and will put this into some more GPG.

The weakening of the NZD over the next 12 months will also add impetus.

shasta
04-08-2005, 06:55 PM
Here's hoping for a wee surprise when the HY results are out, interested to see there strong cash position & whether any indication is given on lies ahead in respect to the RBC/TEN play

Gryffyn
05-08-2005, 11:34 AM
Interesting thoughts all. While I've commented on the strong war-chest building before, I don't think we'll get any direct signals as to where it's going - that would be tipping their hand a little.

Perhaps too early to get any definite signs of Coates full future value.

shasta
05-08-2005, 11:36 AM
Cujodog, a market over reaction will only allow us a top up opportunity on the back of more lumpy results, much of their activity will fall in the FY results not this half.

They have a lot of cash & will be looking to park it somewhere, & you know it wont go to shareholders via dividends, so look out for more acquistions

warthog
05-08-2005, 11:55 AM
quote:Originally posted by cujodog

I'm not really looking forward to the half yearly results.

I can see two things happening:

1) Even if GPG produces an excellent result the share price will not move up significantly - never has historically and no reason why it would this year.

2)A worse than expected result will see the share price savaged.

So the best that you can hope for is that the price stays about the same as it is now.

Any thoughts gentlemen?


The warthog's thought is that the NZ economy is looking shakier than it has over the past 5-6 years and that GPG might offer value going forward where other companies are looking to lock down the hatches. The kiwi$ is also dropping, which means a high proportion of GPG assets overseas are worth more in kiwi$. So GPG represents a potential investment in some turn-around activity (Tower, Coates, etc.) AND a currency hedge (if you agree with the notion that the kiwi$ will trend down over the next coupld of years).

disc.: hold GPG

Gryffyn
05-08-2005, 12:36 PM
I think most of the TWR turn-around has happened and happy to have been a beneficiary of it :-) Agree with the hedge aspect.

coge
05-08-2005, 12:54 PM
The SP isn't usually this high at this time of the year. Remember when you could set your watch by the price? $1.40 or 1.41.

So it will either go up or down depending on the result. Hope I'm not just stating the obvious.

My feeling is there is existing value built into the price.

coge

gulf
05-08-2005, 12:56 PM
I wonder what price GPG will want out of TWR when the time comes to sell.
We should drop the "e" from Coats !!

Gryffyn
05-08-2005, 01:23 PM
ans: as much as they can get!

gulf
05-08-2005, 01:29 PM
I suspect you are probably right !

Gryffyn
05-08-2005, 04:29 PM
I think the best possible contribition to this disucssion is the markets which sees GPG up 3c for the day on damn fine volume :-) I'm loving it :-)

Disc: GPG

Base Trader
05-08-2005, 07:20 PM
Cujodog maybe right. But in the past GPG has not had the level of exposure to one private company. The level of Coats disclosure is important. If they simply disclose GPG numbers - without detailed discussion and management direction on Coats - then we will be none the better off.

I think they will comment on Coats - the detail and nature of numbers will be very important.

warthog
05-08-2005, 07:59 PM
quote:Originally posted by coge

The SP isn't usually this high at this time of the year. Remember when you could set your watch by the price? $1.40 or 1.41.

So it will either go up or down depending on the result.


Hmmm. Seems fair enough [^]


quote:
My feeling is there is existing value built into the price.


Problem with this perspective is that GPG don't fall nicely into a regular annual pattern, especially with various projects on at different stages of completion (RB has noted this if I recall correctly).

What is your feeling based upon, and do you hold any?

coge
05-08-2005, 08:33 PM
Well Mr Warthog,

I've held since 1999, & been watching most days since then. I tend to think there is an annual pattern of sorts. Usually heads north after Xmas until recapitalisation. Then it briefly drops & corrects itself. This is your profit.

There is an overall view beyond current projects.

-coge

warthog
05-08-2005, 10:19 PM
quote:Originally posted by coge

Well Mr Warthog,

I've held since 1999, & been watching most days since then. I tend to think there is an annual pattern of sorts. Usually heads north after Xmas until recapitalisation. Then it briefly drops & corrects itself. This is your profit.

There is an overall view beyond current projects.

-coge


Things have been pretty good since 1999.

Care to post a graph backing up your claim? Looking at the chart, it looks pretty fuzzy to me!

coge
06-08-2005, 12:09 PM
The only charts I can access only indicate the price on any given day, which do not consider the additional number of shares issued by the annual recapitalisation etc. I think anybody who has watched GPG for any length of time should be able to confirm there is an annual cycle.

So, Mr Warthog, if you are trading it would pay to wait until around March 2006 to sell, all things being equal.

Maybe Phaedrus could help us if he is reading this thread, in regard to annual trends?

warthog
06-08-2005, 02:41 PM
quote:Originally posted by coge

The only charts I can access only indicate the price on any given day, which do not consider the additional number of shares issued by the annual recapitalisation etc. I think anybody who has watched GPG for any length of time should be able to confirm there is an annual cycle.

So, Mr Warthog, if you are trading it would pay to wait until around March 2006 to sell, all things being equal.

Maybe Phaedrus could help us if he is reading this thread, in regard to annual trends?


"warthog" is fine - no need for mr. Please yourself though.

Phaedrus has given us his thoughts on GPG recently - see the thread GPG Chart.

Did you say you hold GPG coge?

Paddie
08-08-2005, 01:51 PM
GPG up again nicely today on good volume.

Anticipation of a good half year result?

Paddie:)

Gryffyn
08-08-2005, 02:01 PM
Very good volume and a very good rise :-)

Gryffyn
23-08-2005, 10:11 PM
Soon :-)

Gryffyn
24-08-2005, 07:18 AM
Not especially. Think it is still early days for many of their projects so not expecting any fantastic news this time around. Steady as she goes is my thoughts.

Taijon
26-08-2005, 03:52 PM
Quite a sell off today and sellers heavily outweigh buyers in the depth fields.

Half year report is going to be late according to an announcement to NZX by GPG Finance about a week ago. Delay attributed to preparation of accounts under IFRS standards. GPG say they are implementing this requirement early.

Perhaps the accounts prepared under IFRS won't look that flash. I'm not an accountant so have no idea.