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OneUp
09-12-2004, 08:54 PM
The Reject Shop (TRS)

Operations
� Operates discount variety store chain called �The Reject Shop� Also operates �E $2 stores� but these are gradually being replaced by �The Reject Shop� formatted stores, which are more profitable. TRS closely follows trends in the USA.
� The Warehouse Australia and Millers report margin deterioration from intensed competition. TRS reports no such pressures, and has instead increased its margins.

2004 Results
� Sales of $180.6m, up 10.2%
� Record NPAT of $5.6m up 20.9%. EBITDA of $11.9 million, EBIT of $8.8 million.

Fundamentals:
� TRS recently listed on the ASX at $1.80. Has been in an uptrend since that time, hitting a high of $2.75, but has since retraced to $2.60-ish.
� Market capitalization = circa $60 million
� Price/Earnings = 11; Price/Sales = 0.33; Yield = 6% (forecast), EBIT multiple of 7. These ratios indicate good value.
� Robust balance sheet, net debt is decreasing and the inventory is clean (nos stale or old inventory). Net debt at June 30 was only $1.7 million. Combined with high Free Cash Flows, negligble risk of company going bankrupt.
� Insider purchase Friday 26 November, but shareholders sold down their holding during the IPO.

Future Outlook
� Forecast NPAT of $6.0-$6.2 million. Dividend at 60% of NPAT.
� Forecast Free Cash Flow for FY2005 = $4.6 million. This will be used for further expansion, reducing the modest debt burden and payment of a healthy dividend without the need to raise capital from investors.
� Will continue store rollout plan of 8-10 stores per annum (from a current base of 103). �The early sales of our Pacific Fair store, our first in Queensland, were particularly pleasing.�
� �In the first quarter of FY 2005, sales have exceeded our budgets and we are confident of a strong first half result that will position us well to deliver on our full year profit outlook. �

Overall, looks like the company is expanding revenue at 10% per annum and profits at 20% pa.

I do NOT hold any TRS shares at present. The company looks interesting, but not living in Ozzie I'm not sure what their competitive position is. Why does one go to a "Reject Shop" and not a Millers or Crazy Clints? What is TRS's competitive advantage? What market share does TRS have and how much potential for expansion is there? What is the brand profile of "The Reject Shop"?

PS: Thanks to Tommy and DavidRob for mentioning this in the HWW thread. Thought TRS deserves some dedicated attention, discussion and analysis.

robbo
10-12-2004, 01:14 PM
Howdee One-Up,

Re: TRS:

Bit Busy at Present To Elaborate much further....

....>>>...But as I said before on another Thread...IMO...The Reject Shop(TRS) should NOT be Rejected !! :):)[8D]

So Then One-Up:....Yep, for sure:..>>>(TRS) The Reject Shop Is a Goodie. -IMO- ;)[:p]

And comparisons with Millers and The Warehouse Shop; are, for a host of reasons, are --IMO-- quite misguided and erroneous...

Regards,
Robbo:):)

OneUp
10-12-2004, 01:22 PM
Thanks for the reply Robbo

On Lynch criteria, with a name like "The Reject Shop" NOT the sort of company one would brag about owning at a cocktail party [:I]

OneUp
13-01-2005, 11:14 AM
Not much feedback or interest in this one.

TRS opened today at $2.85, up another 3%. Has been a steep climb the last few days. I notice that TRS encountered some resistance around the $2.80 mark a few months ago, so maybe this is a good sign? Interested in the opinion of chartists?

DISC: have now taken a full position in TRS, so I guess that makes me a reject :D

tommy
16-02-2005, 02:29 PM
Hi All TRS holders,

Half-year results out, lovely:)

Announcement:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TRS&E=ASX&N=232122

Presentation:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TRS&E=ASX&N=232126
__________________


16 February 2005
Half year profit up 22.5%; Full year profit forecast upgraded
Highlights: Sales, $111.8 million, up 12.8 %

Comparable store sales growth 5.9%
NPAT $7.5 million, up 22.5%
Six new stores opened in the period
Full year forecast increased to $6.5-$6.7 million
Interim dividend 10 cents per share

Summary:
HY2005 HY2004
$ Million $ Million
Sales 111.8 99.1
EBITDA 12.6 10.7
EBIT 11.0 9.2
NPAT 7.5 6.1

The Chairman of The Reject Shop Limited, Mr Brian Beattie, today announced on behalf of the Board a 22.5% increase in net profit after tax (NPAT) to $7.5 million for the six months to 26 December 2004.

The profit was earned on total sales of $111.8 million, an increase of 12.8% on the previous corresponding period. Sales growth was underpinned by strong comparable store sales growth of 5.9% and six new store openings during the period.

The Directors have declared a fully franked interim dividend of 10 cents per share to be paid 23 March 2005. The record date is 4 March 2005.

Following its strong first half trading performance the Company has increased NPAT expectations for the full year ending 26 June 2005 from an initial forecast range of $6.0m - $6.2m to a range of between $6.5m - $6.7m.

The strong sales and improved gross margin performance provided the Company with the opportunity to accelerate initiatives designed to sustain long term growth and this led to some additional costs in the half. These initiatives included the strengthening of the buying capability with new expertise and technology, the introduction of cost effective technology into stores to improve productivity, the replacement of some Everything Here $2 stores with The Reject Shop stores and relocating some existing stores to improved locations.

The Reject Shop Managing Director, Mr Barry Saunders said he was pleased with the first half result, particularly the strong comparable stores growth and a sound performance by new stores opened during the period.

THE REJECT SHOP LIMITED

Appendix 4D Page 3
“Improved gross margins have been achieved through a combination of strong sales in some of the higher margin
product categories, improved information from the data warehouse enabling better item quantification and fewer
markdowns and a favourable impact from the strength of the Australian dollar.”
“We are focused on investing in the future growth of the business and to this end have made considerable progress strengthening the buying team. While this will lead to additional costs in the second half, I believe this capability is central to long term growth. A larger more experienced and better equipped buying team has the potential to drive future sales and profit growth.”
“We are evaluating our overall logistics facilities and the possibility exists to introduce new technology and relocate the distribution centre to improve productivity and cater for future growth.”
“In the first half we opened six new stores and are planning a further six stores for the second half, including some Queensland opportunities. We also remain committed to improving productivity in stores by progressively rolling out radio frequency technology as well as computer assisted store ordering” he said.

Further information can be obtained from the Company’s website at www.rejectshop.com.au

Barry Saunders Chris Bryce Graham Lever
Managing Director Chief Financial Officer Company Secretary
Office: (03) 9371 5500 Office: (03) 9371 5552 Office: (03) 9371 5531

Fowlstone Communications
Geoff Fowlstone Lindsay Muir
Office: (02) 9955 9899 Office: (02) 9955 9899
Mobile: 0413 746 949 Mobile: 0400 320 540
Email: geoff@fowlstone.com.au Email: lindsay@fowlstone.com.au
ends

winner69
16-02-2005, 03:02 PM
Over 300 now

Remember the pundits putting this down when it couldn't even maintain its $2 tag after the IPO ... closing down on first ... rejected they said

Makes you wonder though about the competitors performance seeing TRS doing so well

Presume you are doing well with this oneup

tommy
16-02-2005, 03:18 PM
Hi winner69,

Those who bought under $2 would be laughing now though eh...

Hoping that this would remain above $3 from here onwards, PE is still low and big instos seem to continue topping this one up on a regular basis. Hope more will follow[:p]

I've been holding since Aug, it's not an exciting trading stock for whopping short term gains but seems like a slow & steady investment play for medium/long term holders.

soulman
16-02-2005, 04:06 PM
Hello fellow rejector......

It seems that the old TRS make losses in the second half when Christmas shopping is all over. How can't NPAT after tax fall from $7 mil plus in the fist half to under $7 mil for the year. This mean TRS operate in 2 halfs. They might as well closed shop from JAN to JUNE and open up big in June to Dec. I know they can't do that.

I don't see them any different to Crazy Clark or Makro Warehouse.
However I don't think we have The Reject Shop in WA yet.

tommy
21-02-2005, 04:08 PM
Hi all TRS holders,

Wow, up 7.28% today on no news[:p]

Soulman... understand what you mean by "they might as well closed shop from JAN to JUNE and open up big in June to Dec" hahaha, shame they can't do it!

robbo
21-02-2005, 07:04 PM
As you know Tommy,

One of my real TRS is one of my TRUE faves....and my Research tells me, that things are quite definitely on The UP and the UP....for TRS...for a multitude of reasons...haven't quite got time to elaborate right now.....

TRS do have demonstrated Great skill in Stock Inventory turnover AND with these Guys, their Store Branding is First Class---IMO....their Store Offering is a class act and their focussed......and much more Goodies besides..[^][^][^]:)


Great Going heh...:)[:p]:):)

By the way, I gather Tommy your Stock portfolio must be starting to look quite relatively HEALTHY by now mate, are you happy with how things are generally travelling !! ???

Keep Holding TRS..of course only IMO....do your research etc etc.... !![:p]:)[:p]:)

Kind Regards Tommy and all other Rejectors...

Happilly rejected Robbo :):)

OneUp
21-02-2005, 07:18 PM
quote:Originally posted by davidrob
And comparisons with Millers and The Warehouse Shop; are, for a host of reasons, are --IMO-- quite misguided and erroneous...


G'dday Robbo still curious as to what you meant by that - in their prospectus TRS lists Millers and The Warehouse as their main competitors. Always a good sign when the competition is looking sick while TRS is issuing profit upgrades (and a very conservative one at that with lots of assumed adverse events - should beat it for the full year).

Still, I hope to see a retrace to the low $3.05-3.10 region. I'm not prepared to chase it at the levels we saw today.

tommy
21-02-2005, 07:30 PM
Hi TRS holders,

Announcement out: Appendix 3B
http://www.rejectshop.com.au/documents/FFB5149B3CE511D9B9E1000255FA07F7.pdf

Hey, I hope TRS doesn't turn into a SEN

Plus a news article on TRS in the Age dated Feb 17:

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2005/02/16/1108500153642.html

_____________

[b]Consumers rush to embrace the $2 taste
By Leonie Wood
February 17, 2005

Barry Saunders and his buying team at The Reject Shop have learnt that customers with $2 tastes still have some discretion in a consumer boom, although many let down their guard in the latest half-year and took a fancy to the retailer's $15 silicon bras.

Sales of plastic storage boxes, ready-to-assemble furniture and kooky variety items, such as the silicon bras, helped lift The Reject Shop's December-half sales 12.8 per cent to $112 million and fuelled a 22.5 per cent lift in net profit to $7.45 million.

Mr Saunders, who yesterday suggested he might be convinced to stay on as chief executive beyond June next year, said trading had been brisk until October, but the pace had weakened before Christmas. Sales had recovered strongly in January and February, and same-stores sales growth rate was running above the 5.9 per cent for the six months to December 31.

Recent trading has been so strong that management yesterday bumped up its full-year profit forecast by about 8 per cent to between $6.5 million and $6.7 million.

That indicates a loss for the June half-year, although The Reject Shop's second-half losses have shrunk in recent years.
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"We would have closed that gap further were it not for the work that we are continuing to do for the future," Mr Saunders said. "While there is a chance that retail conditions may moderate, we believe the second half will be strong and (profitable before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation)."

The retailer is investing heavily in IT to help manage inventory, has moved a distribution centre, and will incur extra costs as it switches stock-taking systems. It is taking some of its merchandising cues from the US, where discount variety retailers continue to gain ground.

In the local market, the main competitors - Go-Lo, Crazy Clark's and The Warehouse - are struggling as prices for imported items tumble.

But The Reject Shop, with about 105 shops, is expanding.

It will pay a fully franked interim dividend of 10¢ a share on March 23 to shareholders on the register at March 4. Shares yesterday ended up 19¢ at $3.05 after trading as high as $3.10.


____
PS.
Robbo: My share portfolio has finally started to recover from the losses incurred from UNW and AOE last year, thanks to your MAL pick!
Currently holding SEN, SAI, MAL, TRS, UOS and HWW (sold ATR a while ago). Will be holding on to TRS, this is reasonably priced and has much room for growth and I intend to add more when the price falls.

robbo
21-02-2005, 09:07 PM
Howdee One Up,

Err thru my Travels know some folk in Human Resopurces at TRS, and also some Purchasing People and Quality Assurance middle/ middle upper mgt folk; at The Warehouse Group...., and through another mate, ie: second hand..... some Store Mgers and Area Mgers......at Millers...

and the one's at Warehouse and Millers all "off the record" reckon The Reject is the One to beat...

IMO....

from a Marketing point of view;

In Australia at least; the feeling is,...... That TRS is the only one, with genuine Brand Recognition... ie: you could say to someone, "I'll meet you outside the TRS in/at Westfields" whereas the average aussie would not have a Clue what the Colour Scheme or Brand of The Ware house group looks like or could not find or identify with....

Millers have been intimidated, distracted to point of insanity by Wareouse, and been totally SUCKED IN....* stupidly allowed themselves to be engaged in an open Price War with Warehouse Grp; which TRS have neatly/deftly.... side-stepped and disengaed themselves from exercize in futility....and disregarded leaving the other two to Hit each other mercilessly and to point of brain dameage...BIT silly really!!!!...esp. in the Space in which they operate which has consequently been a bit of a suicidal self fulfilling prophesy for Millers from what I can vaguely seem to ascertain....of course only ...IMO....

The Folk I know in Sydney, who work at Warehouse say..." off the record".... their company(Warehouse) is known in New Zealand mainly for selling Toilet Paper as their best Drawcard..!! //...and...only real category killer. ie: apparently Main line over there in New Zealand the Toilet Paper angle seems to work for them apparently....and strategically THEY (Warehouse)think that will ALSO work in Sydney... [:0][:0][:0] [;)]....WRONG !! and beyond Dunny paper; Warehouse Group has not ever seemed to get beyonD that sort of perspective AND Retail dimension really.......


They (Warehouse Mgt I speak to....)also have serious reservations about their new CEO who they say plays the TOUGH guy...seventies style take no prisioners B ull Sh it // sort of immature Bully boy rule by fear, my way or highway boriong yardee yardee yardee routine...

but is not real clever or lateral, smart or Understanding in the slightest, has no clue on the demographics & dynamics....let alone Retail...esp. of 21st century Retail, basically they all reckon he is a total D ick H ead (might be best to go back to that place called Auland, which they reckon is Sydney for real beginners !! ;) [:0][:0]).....and Warehouse CEO being new; has no cultural comapany memory etc....(after the last 4 who left in succession).....so I guess; One Up; that Warehouse not being able to think outside the square..of toilet paper that is.... sort of really does says it all......

Kind regards,

Robbo :)



quote:Originally posted by OneUp

[quote]quote:Originally posted by davidrob
And comparisons with Millers and The Warehouse Shop; are, for a host of reasons, are --IMO-- quite misguided and erroneous...


G'dday Robbo still curious as to what you meant by that - in their prospectus TRS lists Millers and The Warehouse as their main competitors. Always a good sign when the competition is looking sick while TRS is issuing profit upgrades (and a very conservative one at that with lots of assumed adverse events - should beat it for the full year).

Still, I hope to see a retrace to the low $3.05-3.10 region. I'm not prepared to chase it at the levels we saw today.
</blockquot

OneUp
14-04-2005, 07:07 PM
Thanks for your thoughtful analysis of The Warehouse vs TRS Robbo (reminds me I need to go top up on dunny paper from my local red shed).

The comments from 2 months ago that it was not wise to chase it at the $3.40 level have proved well founded. I think it speaks volumes about market sentiment when a little ripper of a company like TRS that's done everything right and is trading at a valuation that suggests it's errr, rejected. Then again, this sell off presents an outstanding buying.

A reject and proud.

winner69
17-04-2005, 08:05 PM
Last weeks 261 is a long way of its 340 not that long ago isn't it

Some 23% of market cap gone is lot of negative sentiment to retailers, small caps and the market in general

Not in at the moment but one to definitely keep a close watch on

OneUp
18-04-2005, 05:00 PM
I recall a comment from the company that it is virtually "recession proof". Apparently not "financial market panic proof" though. Down to $2.58 today.

newz
18-04-2005, 07:45 PM
Being accumulated by Buffet-style investment group Clime Capital CAM.
Clime has an interesting website which is worth a look: www.clime.com.au
Best wishes, Newz

tommy
24-04-2005, 02:02 PM
Hi all Rejectors,

TRS gets mentioned in Sun Herald, check it out:

http://finance.news.com.au/story/0,10166,15068648-462,00.html

______________

Bargains for the picking
By Anthony Black
April 24, 2005
From: Sunday Herald Sun

THE sharemarket's fall from favour has opened the door for bargain hunters, analysts say.
Investors should look to buy profitable companies that have been oversold or are under-valued, they say.

More than $56 billion has been stripped off the value of shares in the past month.

Spooking investors are higher interest rates on the horizon of a slowing economy, marginally weaker commodity prices and negative sentiment about the outlook for the US economy.

The All Ordinaries Index was up 20.9 points on Friday finishing at 4009.6 points.

But that is down 246.2 points, or 5.8 per cent, from its March 21 peak of 4255.8.

Sharemarket analyst Michael Heffernan, of F.W. Holst, said The Reject Shop and JB Hi-Fi offered investors good value as they were 24.4 and 20.7 per cent respectively off year highs.

"The Reject Shop is somewhat recession-proof because of what they sell $150; cheap products," he said.

"And JB Hi-Fi's proven business model could withstand a slower economy. You would just about need a recession before consumers stopped buying plasma TVs and home theatre components. The economy might come off a bit, but I don't see a recession on the horizon.

"The economy is still in good shape, with relatively low inflation and interest rates. Employment numbers remain strong."

Mr Heffernan said global mining giant BHP Billiton offered value at $2.45 off its year high of $19.50.

"BHP Billiton almost has its profits locked in for the next year," he said.

"What I like about BHP Billiton, JB H-Fi and The Reject Shop is they are strong businesses backed by solid sharemarket fundamentals. Their share prices have been shaved, so they offer good value.

"The sharemarket always overshoots $150; on the way up, and down. It is an inherent characteristic of the market.

"So when the market starts falling, some good stocks are oversold and that provides an opportunity."

Sharemarket analyst Mike Kendall, of Goldman Sachs JBWere, likes the value in BHP Billiton, too.

"Twenty-five per cent of BHP's earnings are derived from petroleum," he said. "High oil prices will be with us at least until the end of the year.

"A lot of commodities that BHP digs out of the ground, such as iron ore and copper, are sold on a 12 month contract basis.

So they have locked in a good profit stream."

Mr Kendall said gold producer Newcrest Mining looked cheap when compared with US peers

"Newcrest's Telfer gold mine is world class," he said. "The outlook for gold is strong on the back of a weaker US dollar."

Mr Kendall said recent market volatility would continue, and investors could not expect big price increases in the short term.

"The market will rise and fall until there is more certainty about global and domestic growth and the future direction of inflation and interest rates," he said.

"But recent share price falls do provide investors with an opportunity to pick up a bargain. Investors who buy companies with strong balance sheets should be rewarded over the longer term.

A strong balance sheet has low borrowings and good cash flows."

Mr Kendall said Coca-Cola Amatil was a good buy.

"While the SPC acquisition may take some time to digest, the soft-drink bottler has the ready-made infrastructure to penetrate the Australian and Asian markets with healthy fruit and juice products," he said.

"And it's almost a $1 a share off its year high."

robbo
25-04-2005, 01:18 PM
The Reject Shop TRS
Interesting Post Script you raise there on the MAL-content site there Tommy....re: TRS

Of course, it does seem, that what is NOW occuring for TRS is that almost all discretionay consumer goods//Consumer discretionary//and Retail style primarilly Domestically exposed to only the Local Aussie Economy: these style of domstic listed Retailish companies have had a bit of the guts kicked out of them by the Markets.... coz of general negative sentiment that consumer Debt levels are more than a tad too high, fears of rising interest rates (just luuuve that word FEAR !!)...

So the Net Result ????

...IMO.... is that TRS gets lumped in with Colorado (CDO) , GUD, Just Jeans(JST), JB HI Fi (JBH), Austin Group (ATG), David Jones (DJS), Millers, The Warehouse Group (TWG), Brazin, Strathfield (SRA), Fantastic Furniture (FAN) Harvey Norman (HVN), Nick Scali, etc etc...as this particular now out of favour/sentiment as Sector Investors herd like generalize and Dump the overall Sector taking TRS out with the rest of The Laundry.....

So what to do for us Share Investors though ??

Actually I'm now a bit Sorry I forgot to post on this theme; about TRS topic towards.... about end of February when I sold out most of my TRS Holding, exactly coz of this Sector Sentiment Change....

and now Tommy you do raise the interetsting quetion: should we go stumbling back in....????

So we need to weigh up the "Trend is your friend", "beware of attempting to catch falling knives", and "do not fight the weight of the Market", and "how low will it go" truisms VERSUS...being Contrary....and buying Good quality straw hats in Winter....

One thing I will say, TRS is a very GOOD Straw Hat...one of the best value propositions in the Biz...IMO...and in some ways should...be perceiveed as a Value Defensive Stock, coz of their special niche//space in the market...but what Robbo says "should" means zero crackers.... coz: "it don't mean a thing;" if The Market says; "It aint got that swing...." ---at least in the short term !! [8D]

However; IMO.... the Balance Sheet fundamentals of TRS are truly excellent by any measure:....at least on my read of the numbers...very very sound indeed --- IMO...---- , and good intrinsic value....(will it get even better Value ???)

So as one of the Sharetraders/ subscribers on this Site on another thread recently wrote;

"..... maybe we need to keep our gun powder dry UNTIL we can see the whites of their eyes...."

ie: Cash is KING and will continue to be so with stocks like this potentially (ie: TRS) until the next financial Report comes out...or just before...if you can work out the numbers....;);):)

So MY Macro Overall Thought on The Broad Theme is as Follows:

...&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;.... Overall Stock Market at present seems to be saying now..IMO...: that being exposed to The Global Energy (Oil, Uranium, Gas)/.... and....the High Demand Metals/Commodites: (Copper, Nickel, Iron Ore, Gold, Plutonium, Zircon)...as long as you can put up with the various Worry Warts//Media occasional fear mongering, from week to week and see the Macro Structural Period over the next 7 -13 months....

For Me: those " 'ol fundamental Massive Tsunami forces of Supply and Demand and the basic economic concept of Scarcity...and the flow on of High high Net Profit Margins....are the best Hedge...... and look towards where their will be the MOST massive sustainable genuine structural deep rooted Demand coming from at least a billion People wanting//needing something; that is in r

OneUp
25-04-2005, 05:38 PM
Feb 21:

quote:
One of my real TRS is one of my TRUE faves....and my Research tells me, that things are quite definitely on The UP and the UP....for TRS...for a multitude of reasons...haven't quite got time to elaborate right now.....

TRS do have demonstrated Great skill in Stock Inventory turnover AND with these Guys, their Store Branding is First Class---IMO....their Store Offering is a class act and their focussed......and much more Goodies besides..

Great Going heh...

Keep Holding TRS..of course only IMO....do your research etc etc.... !!

Kind Regards Tommy and all other Rejectors...

Happilly rejected Robbo


25 April:


quote:
about end of February when I sold out most of my TRS Holding


Naturally there are no firm obligations, but I think it would have been a good call to mention you had sold back in Feb, seeing as it was so soon after giving such a glowing endorsement of TRS's prospects.

But back to the company, even if we see some weakness leading into June, the numers in August should sort it out. Though any softening will have some effect on TRS, it will surely be less than on other retailers. In fact, in hard times we may find TRS benefit. Just like with the Warehouse.NZ, in recessions people may give up their brand name products and their big ticket purchases, but the absolute amount of consumption, especially on staples, is pretty inelastic.

tommy
25-04-2005, 10:28 PM
Disappointing that Robbo has backflipped and sold off his TRS holdings, but I'm still not letting go of TRS simply because I don't find a better alternative! (I'm sitting on a paper loss of 10.8% at the moment!!)

Remember though, TRS's operations are weird in that their revenue is mostly generated around the Xmas period while the rest of the year is loss-making for them! I don't think the change in market sentiment has anything to do with the fundamentals of TRS, as TRS appears to be much more competitive compared to their peers... When costs begin to rise (as pointed out by pago regarding inflationary pressures triggered by high oil/coal prices, etc.), those with efficient operations should be able to survive while inefficient ones get weeded out. It would be interesting then to see when TRS starts taking over other unprofitable stores to expand their chain... they can be still be a winner in a competitive retail market full of losers!

tommy
25-04-2005, 10:30 PM
Err... Just realized pago seems to have erased his post[xx(]

robbo
26-04-2005, 10:18 AM
Yeah fair enuff guys [B)][B)]

Apologies to one and all, ...wamt to point out that my decision to take profits was due to the SECTOR, not the actual share, TRS, which frankly now thanks very much to Tommy is firmly again on my Watchlist, as I still def, DO rate this stoch highly...

Also, from mem. I didpost something about gettin a goodly portion of funds into CASH, as I think I did this post on the BB post after taking Profits their as well....

So I'd better also say that apart from trs, I also sold out of sen, emi, trs, hsc, fan, gud etc due to desire to go to cash,,,
regards robbo

steve fleming
06-05-2005, 02:25 PM
Hi One-Up

I saw on another thread you were making some comparisons between TRS and WHS.

I see a few differences between the two.

TRS appear to be located in the ‘lower socio-economic’ parts of suburban centres and are also really highly exposed (over half their stores) to regional markets, and therefore exposed to any downturn in these regions accordingly…..I’ve been in Sydney for a few years now and in that time have seen at most 4 TRS shops…...whereas in NZ I see 3 or 4 WHS stores just on the drive back from the airport…. I think there are only about 15 TRS stores in Sydney compared to about 30-40 WHS stores in Auckland…..further TRS has about 30 stores in regional NSW, in a number of places that are really hurting …

WHS has a much more ‘diversified’ and loyal customer base and with a greater exposure to a number of different markets….

Also whereas in NZ one may specifically decide to go shopping at the WHS, my reading of the TRS consumers is that their shopping purpose would be to go to a Centre/mall and then decide to visit TRS amongst other shops once they are there, therefore you are relying heavily on mall traffic to drive sales…..rather than on the actual pulling power of TRS…

I can say that in my 5 years in Aus I have never once been into a TRS shop….either becos there are none around where I live/work and because the marketing doesn,’t do much for me….whereas in NZ I was at a WHS every second week….

Not saying TRS or WHS are good/bad/better/worse, in fact the TRS financials look great, just pointing out my experiences in relation to the two different shops…...

OneUp
06-05-2005, 02:56 PM
Cheers for your thoughts mate, can't recall comparing TRS to a WHS (and if it came across certainly wasn't intended), from memory I was more asking what Reject Shop's competitive advantage over WHS or Millers.

The argument goes that, even if the economy is hurting, people put off going overseas or buying a new plasma TV screen, rather than soap and the other "daily essentials" that TRS stocks (or at least we all hope they don't stop buying soap!). It's essentially an elasticity of demand argument.

If anything, tighter economic conditions may well mean people go the extra mile to scout out bargains and stretch their dollars further. (So instead of paying an extra couple of bucks to get these items at the supermarket, they go down the other part of the mall to TRS).

One thing I asked at the beginning of this thread, and haven't got a lot of feedback on, is exactly what you find at a TRS. And what sells best. The company says it sells "daily essentials" but it's probably worth verifying that first hand. As well as sweet talking the store manager or store clerk to see whether things are slower or busier than last year. You get the feeling that even if sales are a little slower on a same store basis, that it will be compensated by the new store opening programme.

EDIT: would be good to see some insider buying at current levels. I'll be buying some more when/if they do.

tommy
06-05-2005, 04:04 PM
Hi oneup,

This is the sort of stuff TRS sells:

http://www.rejectshop.com.au/catalogue.asp

A lot of the stuff they stock aren't exactly daily essentials... they just appear to be cheaper alternatives to what you can find in other discount stores like Kmart (but on a much smaller scale).

Apparently their "silicon bras" were a big hit... but I don't know what else is a massive sales generator at TRS.

tommy
30-05-2005, 05:10 PM
The Reject Shop today went up 5.09%, with sell side getting thinner and thinner... the REJECTION days may be over, so I am hoping[:I]

robbo
30-05-2005, 05:39 PM
Hi Tommy,

Yep....having got out of Retail Sector earlier in the year,with TRS, and the Telco B Digital, BBB after Xmas (see that thread) ...and Prometum PPR in the Printing Sector..(see that thread too) and .from memory, that was about late Jan thru to late Feb of this year......and as you also know... taken v. large (massive) profits -- 450 % (yeah !!) out of Senetas (SEN) and also excellent 80% profits in 4 months with IPN Medical...(IPN) see that IPN Medial thread...and also out of Emitch(EMI) 190 % profits was enough...with the PE getting a bit high.... @ the approx. 33 cents mark...after getting in at 11 cents...

The other day I also sold out of BSL (Bluescope Steel)...also see that post..

So I was very very BORING....and just basically nearly went to approx. 55% -- 60% Cash......except OF COURSE for my faves....being for POL, SIM, MTN, POL, MAL, BHP, NBL, PBD (Port Bouvard) See the PBD thread) ...which I also sold TODAY --as it reached an all time Year and 12 month high, I guess in anticipation of the BIG Div.....!!(so the yeild on capital gain was still about plus 17 % in 30 days....and I wanted The CASH $$$$ !!! )

and Blue Scope (BSL) which I settled with Profits for just a gain of 11 % on...only the other day...(see BSL) thread) --was all I decided to really keep....and again stocked up on The Cash $$$ ---

But this last 21 -28 days approx. have, as already indicated on the other EMI thread, been again adding in the GLOOM & Doom with the Lovely lemmings (sky is falling in types...!!...and all the craxy skizzo Worry Warts !!! ,

to stocks like EMI and also added to MAL AT 38 -43 cents with also quietly adding to MAL as I do for MAL, as you all know reckon there is a wallaping wide Margin of Safety here.... & with Zircon etc etc....remain VERY VERY Bullish and picked up another approx $50K. approx of MAL.......this last 2 - 3 weeks ...

Included with all of this bringing in Cash in Feb & March * April....have also been doing some Buying too.... again now adding to TRS, and again -- !!! to good 'ol Emitch --- (EMI) coming back into EMI strongly at 18.5c & 19c, and 19.5 cents.... and also added to TRS, and ALSO slowly adding to MTN, MAL, AEX, POL, SIM, BHP(on weakness) and again Samson Oil & Gas (SSN) ,on weakness. ....

.and so; having being cashed up; have been lately adding to these sorts of Share positions as per above...

...as well as ADDING

....&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; two other nice Fresh NEW discoveries I've made chaps...., being what I perceive to be wonderful opportunity STOCKS -- namely Marathon MTN ... and another left fielder called Acclaim (AEX) ...on which I will also.... for both of these (AEX and MTN) start two new quick threads...

Thought I would try and do the right thing & declares some of the overall INterests.... Guys.... and sort of indicate in a ## approx. general way...what my overall current activities/intentions are....as that seems to be the vague sort of protocol around here at Sharetrader.... !!! (still have kept about 17 % of my portfolio discreet...but the above is listed the approx. ## General Idea of the situation !!! )

and yep, as I said, do now like and am again re-entering TRS !!!

Catchya guys

Regards,

Robbo :):)...

tommy
31-05-2005, 12:26 PM
Hi Robbo,

Sounds like you are well cashed up to take advantage of the cheapo stocks around! I have been holding on to TRS for a while, still have a lot of faith in this company because it is basically Xmas time when this baby makes money... as for the rest of the year, oh well, it's basically burning cash[|)] I know retail sector is no longer in favor under the present economic climate (wow DJs and Myer launching their midyear sales early just to boost sagging sales!), I'm sure the business model of TRS will still allow the company to outperform its peers.

Always good to hear your opinion robbo, keep up the good work
[8D]

David Hardman
02-06-2005, 11:04 AM
Looks like "Grahger Capital Investments" likes TRS

Have recently become a SSH and continues to buy on market. (see announcements)

Their buying prolly explains the 60c rise over the last month

OneUp
02-06-2005, 01:54 PM
quote:Originally posted by David Hardman

Looks like "Grahger Capital Investments" likes TRS

Have recently become a SSH and continues to buy on market. (see announcements)

Their buying prolly explains the 60c rise over the last month


Who could blame them? ;) They are not the only professionals to take a liking to TRS. Market Analysis put out a "buy" recommendation in early January (hence the spike in price at that time).

tommy
08-06-2005, 02:57 PM
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,15544183%255E643,00.html

_________

Discounter sees how low it can go
Katherine Jimenez
June 08, 2005

PRICE competition among discount variety stores is about to intensify after struggling Miller's Retail yesterday signalled "aggressive sales and stock markdowns" in an effort to shift surplus stock.

The warning came as Miller's - owner of the Go-Lo, Crazy Clark's and Makro chains - said it would wear a one-off $55 million cost this year as it shifted inventory and met the expenses of closing 80 of its 1050 outlets around the country.

The retailer, which is two months into a strategic review that may lead to further consolidation in the sector, also revealed that its earnings could dip into the red by as much as $7 million in the 2004-05 year.

Miller's, which also owns Katies, said earnings before interest tax, depreciation and amortisation would be between $48 million and $53 million for the full year.

But its bottom line would suffer from the $55 million hit, with $25 million reflecting "immediate action" to rationalise company inventories with a program of "aggressive sales and stock markdowns".

Miller's chief Gary Perlstein declined to comment but it is likely the bulk of the inventory provision relates to its ailing discount variety business.

Miller's said it would exit or close about 80 underperforming stores in its 1050 store network at a cost of up to $30 million. Most are likely to be in discount variety.

The company described the provisions as "preliminary actions" to improve the business outlook. However, the aggressive price move is likely to trigger a price war in the already fiercely competitive discount variety market contested by Coles Myer's Kmart and Target, Woolworths' Big W, the New Zealand-based Warehouse Group and The Reject Shop.

One analyst said the move by Miller's "causes grief throughout the industry". "The biggest threat to an industry is the competitive actions of a player," the analyst said.

Millers said "the review has assessed inventory levels to be excessive and this has constrained buying practices and prevented the company from trading to its full potential".

Miller's also said yesterday that "due to the uncertain outlook and continued underperformance of the discount variety division" it would "write down the remaining carrying value of the division intangible assets to zero, a reduction of $31.1 million".

The discount variety business has been plagued with internal problems, compounded by a highly competitive environment over the past two years, mainly brought on by the Warehouse Group.

In April, Miller's new board announced a review of group operations but said the focus would be on the discount variety division.

Warehouse has flagged an interest in some of the stores, as has The Reject Shop. However, there is speculation Miller's may have also rekindled merger talks with Warehouse.

tommy
09-06-2005, 12:39 PM
More news on Miller profits, TRS mentioned also... will TRS be interested in acquisition? Interesting times[:I]

____________
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,15554015%255E643,00.html


Retailers hang on despite industry downgrades
Katherine Jimenez
June 09, 2005

RETAIL stocks stood firm yesterday in the wake of profit downgrades from Oroton and Miller's Retail.

On Tuesday, Oroton - owner of the Oroton and Marcs labels - said higher overhead costs, restructuring expenses and a difficult retail market would push its earnings before interest, tax and amortisation 41 per cent below last year's $14.5 million result.

Its privatisation talks with private equity firm Catalyst ended on Monday after a disagreement on price.

It was originally believed to be more than $3 a share but came back to about $2.50 after the profit downgrade and cash-flow problems.

Just hours later, Miller's warned its full-year earnings would dip into the red, crunched by a $55 million provision relating to 80 store closures and stock markdowns. It will also write down the remaining carrying value of its troubled discount variety business - made up of Go-Lo and Crazy Clark's - to zero.

Investors marked down both stocks following their announcements but Oroton bore the brunt, collapsing 25 per cent to $1.95. Yesterday it gained 1c to $1.96, with Miller's sliding 6.5c to 80.5c.

The profit downgrades follow a string of warnings in the sector in recent months, and on Tuesday added to investor unease about the few retail companies that had not issued alerts.

Shares in Coles Myer and David Jones - which are holding firm on their forecasts - rose yesterday, with Coles up 12c to $9.60 and DJs 1c firmer at $1.86. Harvey Norman's shares fell 5c to $2.64. Holst FW analyst David Spry said: "I think generally there is a slowdown but those two particular companies (Oroton and Miller's) were going to probably report lower results regardless because of their internal issues."

Tolhurst Noall's Marcus Padley said Macquarie Bank had a "very high" volatility rating on Miller's. Macquarie said the retailer's balance sheet was stretched with poor visibility of earnings.

Miller's is two months into a review that could see it divest some of its discount variety businesses and start merger talks with New Zealand group Warehouse or Australia's The Reject Shop. In April, Reject Shop chief executive Barry Saunders said he could "not respond at this stage" to questions on whether it would be interested in participating in a merger with Miller's. "We'll see what happens with it all when they clarify what they are really talking about." He said it would be interested in buying some stores if they became available.

Warehouse has expressed interest in some of Miller's stores but could emerge with a bigger interest. The two held talks in the middle of last year but went their separate ways without any progress.

Oroton has begun a review of its balance sheet.

OneUp
09-06-2005, 01:51 PM
Cheers Tommy, much appreciated - I don't get The Australian here. TRS has the cash reserves and balance sheet strength to fund the purchase of plenty of Miller's stores. Would be a nice fast track expansion if they could pull it out of the hat now, with the remodelled stores ready to trade for Xmas.

robbo
09-06-2005, 04:52 PM
The Reject Shop (TRS)

Yep.

Do Agree with all of that ONe Up and Tommy........

Millers are now a totall distracted debt mired Basket Case...and The Warehouse Group are all but gone in Australia...

So the Strong Will Survive and Prosper...and that player will be The Reject Shop (TRS)...IMO..:):)

One could actually argue, that in some regards....TRS....like Woolworths(WOW) on a bigger scale------is also a "defensive" play

Regards,

Robbo :)

tommy
09-06-2005, 07:53 PM
Hi robbo, oneup and other REJECTORs,

I am hoping TRS will take advantage of ailing businesses and start taking over the unprofitably branches of rival companies in this gloomy retail market... TRS may indeed be a "defensive" play, but I'm hoping that the management expands their business "aggressively" by capitalizing on poorly performing competitors!

robbo
09-06-2005, 10:23 PM
Heh Tommy,

Buffetty(Warren) Bird ...reckons that no amount of Good Mgt can Beat a Bad Business....

Better just to let em die....

And choose & Use their own--proprietary TRS "Superior and Proven Retail MODEL Criteria"--- with the success proven TRS Systems and TRS Mgt Skills to ----to at most; maybe carefully and prudently, and with Due Diligence (no Rush) --- cherry pick the "low hanging" Fruit... ... -- vis a vis the demographics/geographics, --- that may have opened in the Market due to the demise of Millers....

But to just barge in, "willy nilly" .... and take over the majority of Millers & Crazy Clarkes & Discount Dicks-- or whatever they were called..... and what not: errrr.......maybe I think not....

---- the TRS successful model....is a: "bit of knitting I hope that just Focus on ...and stick to" ......

and Stick strictly to what is profitable and works for TRS...and just have the discipline to stick with that...

wouldn't ya reckon Tommy ?? ! :):)

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

OneUp
09-06-2005, 11:02 PM
It has occured to me that Millers may be so desperate to offload their discount stores they might pay TRS to take them off their hands. What do ya reckon?

tommy
11-06-2005, 03:15 PM
Hi robbo and oneup,

Hope you are all enjoying the long weekend;)

As for Millers dumping their red-ink shops to TRS, I think anything is possible considering that the top management of TRS consist of people who know how to run retail business inside out!

They have been talking about expanding their network of branches for a while and I think this is a great opportunity to make good use of the cash they have.

I know robbo sounds disinterested in the idea of taking over bad business, but if TRS can kill off a competitor and turn their branches into profitable ones at the same time, surely they will at least consider that option? As the retail market becomes harsher, consolidation will naturally occur...

If they have an effective business model, they should be able to expand further through economies of scale, provided that they don't fall into the trap of diseconomies of scope by diversifying into areas where they're not particularly competitive... but in any case, the outlook for TRS appears to be better than other retailers at the moment, so I'm not complaining!

tommy
13-06-2005, 05:08 PM
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Ouch-Retailers-reel-from-6bn-pinch/2005/06/11/1118347630793.html

Ouch! Retailers reel from $6bn pinch
By Annie Lawson
June 12, 2005


The twin effects of a cooler housing market and petrol price rises have cost retailers $6 billion in lost sales this year and are expected to inflict more damage.

The $200 billion retail industry is bracing for further softness but the impending income tax cuts could cushion it from any dramatic falls, according to one analyst. "I think the trend has been down, even before the (unseasonal) weather, since the start of the calendar year," said Anne Barnett, senior analyst at Aegis Equities.

"There was a bit of softening in the second half but it's been very soft into this calendar year on the back end of higher petrol prices and higher interest rates."

Although a warm autumn was largely to blame for sluggish winter clothing sales in May, the official interest rate rise in March - the first in 15 months - prompted home owners to rein in spending on such items as whitegoods, homewares, hardware, appliances and furniture.

Sales growth has virtually halved this year, forcing many shops, including Myer and David Jones, to bring forward their major sales. "I don't think retailers anticipated the sharpness of the fall . . . at the time, albeit it was coming from a high point," said FW Holst retail analyst David Spry. "The weather impact has come since then and confounded it slightly."

He said food and discount stores such as the Reject Shop and Kmart appeared relatively immune to the slowdown but others such as Harvey Norman had been affected.

"For good operators the current environment is not overly bad but inventory is something they need to carefully watch in terms of not carrying too much," he said.

"I think it certainly tests some retailers at the specialty end - we've seen Oroton and Miller's Retail struggling but they've got other problems as well, and we've seen JB Hi-Fi slowing from a high point. You'd have to say Harvey Norman is a bit vulnerable as they are exposed to all the sectors that are slowing."

A spokeswoman for Kmart said the chain was performing well despite the rise in interest rates.

Coles Myer refused to comment on the performance of its department stores but managing director John Fletcher recently used the phrase "cautious but not pessimistic" to describe the immediate outlook.

Mr Spry believes that retail sales will continue at current rates for the rest of the year.

"I don't think it's going to collapse and we're not at the stage yet where there's blood on the street," he said. "However, I can't see it bouncing back strongly - I think it's just going to go sideways for a while. There may be little blips up and little blips down but I don't think there'll be any dramatic swings."

robbo
13-06-2005, 05:38 PM
Tommy ...

Howya Tommy,

YOu were more "on the money" ---with your TRS thoughts re. Millers; and Tommy you were much MORE right than me....:)[B)]

It turns out, that yep, as you suggested might happen Tommy, Millers Mgt is now talking to TRS in terms of a Trade Sale---which is just a nice euphamism for "buy-out/takeover"...

Of course that might "make" Millers a good takeover target "Spec buy" ---for those wanting to risk their knicker-bockers on a Buy Out scenario --

---like I did quite nicely with Independnent Practioner Network (IPN) a few months ago....

--although I think I'll keep my trousers on at the momment...for the time being at least.... before throwing everything in..... on "this particular wheel".....-

But watching with Interest Tommy.... !!! [:p]

Kind Regards,

Robbo:):)

thereslifeafter87
13-06-2005, 11:08 PM
Just keep that $6 billion in perspective. It sounds like it's a lot, but when viewed in the context of a $200billion industry, it equates to 3%.

Not business destroying really huh?

tommy
14-06-2005, 01:08 AM
quote:Originally posted by davidrob

Tommy ...

Howya Tommy,

YOu were more "on the money" ---with your TRS thoughts re. Millers; and Tommy you were much MORE right than me....:)[B)]

It turns out, that yep, as you suggested might happen Tommy, Millers Mgt is now talking to TRS in terms of a Trade Sale---which is just a nice euphamism for "buy-out/takeover"...

Of course that might "make" Millers a good takeover target "Spec buy" ---for those wanting to risk their knicker-bockers on a Buy Out scenario --

---like I did quite nicely with Independnent Practioner Network (IPN) a few months ago....

--although I think I'll keep my trousers on at the momment...for the time being at least.... before throwing everything in..... on "this particular wheel".....-

But watching with Interest Tommy.... !!! [:p]

Kind Regards,

Robbo:):)




Hi Robbo,

Where did you get that info regarding Miller engaged in talks with Reject Shop?? Had no idea talks were already in progress!

If it is true, well, I'm sure TRS will do the right thing i.e. cherry-pick Millers' branches that are making a loss due to poor management despite being positioned in strategically favorable locations and give them a makeover, while weeding out those that need to be culled.

I have visited TRS stores in Chatswood Westfield and Macquarie Center, both appear to be doing well... don't know about other branches though! Looking forward to possible exciting announcements in the near future;)

tommy
14-06-2005, 01:15 AM
quote:Originally posted by thereslifeafter87

Just keep that $6 billion in perspective. It sounds like it's a lot, but when viewed in the context of a $200billion industry, it equates to 3%.

Not business destroying really huh?


Hi thereslifeafter87!

Even if $6bn only accounts for 3%, the downturn was enough to force retail giants Myer and David Jones to launch their year-end sales earlier than usual, a move which has thrown the entire retail market into cut-throat competition mode... and remember that they had good reason to do so (i.e. they need to get rid of those inventories before the closing of accounts at the fiscal year end!)

3% might be peanuts for a profitable business, but it will literally be a life or death issue for those that are already bearing the brunt of increasing costs and sluggish sales.

David Hardman
14-06-2005, 09:14 AM
quote:Originally posted by tommy
Where did you get that info regarding Miller engaged in talks with Reject Shop?? Had no idea talks were already in progress!


There was an article in the wekeend AFR about this prospect Tommy.

tommy
14-06-2005, 04:44 PM
Thanks davehardman!

Another news article in which TRS is mentioned:

____________
http://www.thecouriermail.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,15603873%255E3122,00.html

Discount stores losing out to high-enders
Emma Chalmers
14jun05

IT is only a short walk from the diamonds and blue bags of Brisbane's first Tiffany and Co store to the glorified jumble sale of the inner city's Crazy Clark's outlet.

But even in the midst of a much talked about retail downturn, the gulf between the two stores is acute.

Last week, as the covers came off more stores in the high-end Queens Plaza, Miller's Retail sparked rumours it was ready to dump its discount variety arm, which includes Crazy Clark's, by announcing the closure of 80 stores and aggressive sales and stock markdowns to shift its excess inventory.

Miller's, which also operates Go-Lo and women's apparel chains Katies and Miller's Fashion Club, cited internal problems such as excess stock, poor store locations and an uncertain retail outlook as the primary problems facing its business.

Fierce competition in the discount sector has also hurt rival retailer The Warehouse Group, which flagged a lower profit this year after disappointing Christmas sales.

With consumer spending tipped to remain sluggish into the near future, life is not going to get any easier for the discount stores, which are also suffering from a shift in customer tastes.

According to Mel McGoldrick, program director at the Australian Centre for Retail Studies, customers are putting a lot more thought into their purchases and heading for the top end of town.

"People are not spending as much, but when they do they're making sure they get exactly what they want," she said.

"They're looking to get that really special piece and looking to treat and look after themselves."

Customers are also seeking an enjoyable shopping experience – something that is not emphasised in a discount store where price is the selling point.

These increasingly discerning buyers spell trouble for discount retailers who rely on bulk sales at cheaper prices in contrast to top shelf retailers who can better absorb a flattening market.

"The fact that they work off such low margins and such high volumes, when their volume drops off it really hurts them, whereas if you work on a much higher margin it's not such an issue," she said.

According to one analyst, these woes are compounded by many discount stores' "haphazard" approach to retailing.

David Spry from FW Holst said stock purchase and control was vital in a sector that relied on volume and Miller's had not got that formula right.

"They operate on fairly thinnish margins and of course if you haven't got the systems in place and you don't control your inventory properly you are going to get into trouble," he said.

Conversely, Mr Spry said The Reject Shop had been managed with a good format and well-positioned stores and after opening one store in Queensland on the Gold Coast, it planned to further extend its footprint in the state.

"They run a very strict business model, they're not afraid to close any stores that are not reaching benchmarks, even if they are profitable," he said.

Manjit Sadhwani, managing director of the 30-strong chain of Dollars and Sense stores in Queensland, NSW and Northern Territory, also believes he can pinpoint where the big players have come unstuck.

He said Dollars and Sense was enjoying double-digit growth in the face of flailing competitors because of the company's attention to detail.

"We're smaller and we're nimbler and it's easier for us to move with the needs of our customers," he said.

"I think once you get to a situation where these guys have, the big corporate syndrome, it's very, very difficult when you've got a large number of stores, but we can do different things in different locations."

In addition to tailor-making individual stores to different demographics, Mr Sadhwani said the company can seek out an edge on its competitors through its product range.

"Thes

tommy
23-06-2005, 03:58 PM
News article mentioning a bit about TRS in connection with Millers:

_____________
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,15699298%255E643,00.html

Solomon Lew raids Just Group
Michael West and Katherine Jimenez
June 23, 2005

RETAIL kingpin Solomon Lew has swooped on Just Group, snaring 8.6 per cent of the troubled fashion retailer in a market raid.

One month after emerging on the share register of surf and skatewear company Globe, another Lew family company, Metrepark, was revealed as a substantial shareholder in Just Group.

Using Southern Cross Equities as broker, Metrepark, which lists Mr Lew and Kim Davis as directors, bought 18.7million shares in Just between May 17 and yesterday, at prices ranging from $1.80 to $2.13.

Like many other retail stocks, Just recently suffered a profit downgrade, blaming the slowdown in consumer spending. Mr Lew's interest is likely to put a floor under the Just share price, which tumbled to a record low of $1.80 after the mid-May downgrade.

The shares have since recovered, closing yesterday at $2.13 to value Mr Lew's stake in the group -- owner of Just Jeans, Jay Jays and Portmans -- at almost $40 million.

A source close to the former Coles Myer chairman said a desire for a "seat at the table" was the most likely explanation for the investment. He said Mr Lew might have bought the stake to position himself for a corporate play, or simply because the stock represented good value.

Mr Lew, ousted from the Coles board in late 2002, still holds a 6 per cent stake in the giant retailer, worth almost $650 million at yesterday's closing price of $9.34.

* Speculation has emerged that Miller's Retail has put its troubled discount variety business up for sale.

Miller's, which has also suffered from the consumer spending downturn, is nearly three months into a strategic review that is due to be finished soon.

Industry sources claim that the division, which has forced Miller's to make three profit warnings in the past 12 months, is being offered for sale. The division comprises the Go-Lo, Crazy Clark's and Makro chains and is estimated to be worth about $50million.

Earlier this month, Miller's wrote down the carrying value of the discount variety business to zero, a reduction of $31.1 million, "due to the uncertain outlook and continued underperformance of the discount variety division".

A company spokesman declined to comment on the sale speculation and referred to chairman Geoff Levy's statement on April 21, which said its review was "far-ranging" and included "an examination of asset valuations and consideration of the many restructuring and divestment opportunities open to the group".

The Warehouse - owned by New Zealand Warehouse Group - has previously flagged an interest in some of the stores, as has The Reject Shop.

Sources believe private equity groups could also line up as likely buyers.

The company has taken some preliminary action ahead of the review. Miller's will wear a one-off $55 million writedown this year after shifting inventory and meeting the expenses of closing 80 of its 1050 outlets around the country. Consequently, its earnings will slide into the red in the 2004-05 year.

tommy
24-06-2005, 10:31 PM
http://www.bordermail.com.au/newsflow/pageitem?page_id=989624

__________

Fri, Jun 24, 2005

Discounter adding variety to centre

By DI THOMAS

Ready for todays opening assistant manager Ms Kristine Ruhmann, area manager Will OCollins and Mr Pontt.

DISCOUNT variety retailer The Reject Shop will open a new store at the redeveloped Centro Lavington shopping centre this morning.

The store, the 41st in NSW, joins stores at Centro Wodonga and Dean St in Albury.

The Reject Shop managing director, Barry Saunders, said the new store had a selling area of 470sq m, employed 30 and represented an investment of $420,000.

He said over the past five years the company had offered a restricted range through its Everything Here $2 store, which was closed in October before the start of renovations.

“This opportunity now allows us to serve our customers with a wider range of bargains in a larger, more customer friendly location,” Mr Saunders said.

“We are also excited to be providing additional employment opportunities in the community.

Store manager Nigel Pontt continues a family tradition with his father Ron having operated the Everything Here $2 store.

He said preparations had gone smoothly and his staff were looking forward to opening for business from 9am.

“There is definitely a bigger range on offer and also a higher price range,” he said.

“I think this type of store is in demand in this area.”

OneUp
17-08-2005, 11:31 AM
Full year results out:

NPAT up 26.5% to $7.1m. Seeing as they made $7.5m in the first half, TRS appears to have lost $0.4m in the second. Nonetheless, a slight improvement on the $0.5m loss last year.

EPS of 28.9c

Final dividend of 7cps; total 17 cps (a shade under 6% yield FF).

Forecast of $7.9-$8.1m NPAT under GAAP for FY06 (an increase of 12-14%). Expect TRS to beat those estimates - $8.5-$9.0m more likely.

Note however that under IFRS NPAT will be restated downwards, mainly because stock based incentives (i.e. options) will have to be charged against earnings.

With 15x interest cover, the balance sheet and cashflow also support acquisitions.

tommy
17-08-2005, 01:56 PM
Hi oneup and all other Rejectors,

Thanks for the summary oneup, TRS delivered as hoped. Good dividend too! I wonder what happened to their talks with Millers?

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TRS&E=ASX&N=240610

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TRS&E=ASX&N=240611

OneUp
17-08-2005, 04:34 PM
Not sure about Millers. I have not heard of anyone else buying their discount variety - maybe talks are ongoing (hence the reference to balance sheet strength which is available to fund acqusitions).

The market certainly likes the result - up 17c or 5.6% on modest turnover and well bid.

tommy
17-08-2005, 05:55 PM
GOOD NEWS!Yeah![:p]
___________

http://www.theage.com.au/news/Business/Reject-Shop-eyes-Millers-stores/2005/08/17/1123958115617.html

Reject Shop eyes Miller's stores
August 17, 2005 - 4:29PM

The Reject Shop on Wednesday put up its hand to take over a number of premises if rival Miller's Retail Ltd goes ahead with its plan to close up to 80 underperforming stores.

The discount chain has brushed off the gloom that's descended on its peers to pass the $200 million sales milestone for the first time during 2004/05.

Its net profit jumped 26.5 per cent to $7.1 million for the year, with sales up 12.5 per cent to $203.1 million.

Investors liked the result, pushing Reject Shop shares up 17 cents to an eight month high of $3.22.

Managing director Barry Saunders said the group, which now has 108 stores around Australia with another 14 to be opened in the current year, has focused on building up repeat business.

"We've been working very hard to get a consistent repeat business every week of the year rather than have a bonanza nine weeks of the year (at Christmas and Easter)," Mr Saunders said.

Mr Saunders sees opportunities to increase the number of stores if Miller's Retail goes ahead with its plan to shut down 80 of its underperforming Go-Lo and Crazy Clark's stores.
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"We have been successful in other retailers' premises when we have moved into them opportunely in the past," Mr Saunders said.

"We wouldn't imagine that 80 would be available to us but I can't see that there would be anything but a benefit if there was that rationalisation."

The Reject Shop will close its six remaining Everything for $2 stores this year replacing them with Reject Shops.

"We're quietly exiting the E2 stores," Mr Saunders said.

"We don't want to pass on the goodwill we have built up in those sites so, for the most part, we are putting up, or have already put up, Reject Shops at the appropriate sites."

Mr Saunders said there was no evidence to say sales had been impacted by the sustained high petrol prices which Coles Myer on Tuesday said had knocked $20-$30 off the average consumer's weekly spending.

He said that in the lower end space where Reject Shop operates, it can go against the trend with people looking to save on bargains.

"With the first six weeks of trading in the new year we are right on target."

The Reject Shop's final dividend was seven cents taking its payout for the year to 17 cents to mark its first year as publicly listed company.

robbo
18-08-2005, 09:50 AM
The Reject Shop (TRS)

(1) Great Set of Numbers.

(2) For the fifth or umpteenth Time ... (consitent ROE growth ) --which is what demostrtes their success (year on year)

(3) Delivers these Numbers when many retatilers are putting in poor results, and Consumer sentiment allegedly flat. Demostrates, IMO. TRS relative resilience to cycles.....

(4) Eassilly Sees off, & leaves in the dust, its peer competitors (Millers, The Warehouse Group etc etc) ..... to now become close to being a powerful Category Killer) ....

(5) Created and continues to enforce its Brand (what Buffett would call its "franchise") which again reinforces the sitaution

(6) Fantastic Inventory and Stock Turnover; looking through thier Balance sheet .... and increases in Earnings Profits....

(7) Excellent Free Cash Flow and lack of relative Debt

(8) Great Product Range and Price Points if Domestic Economy does at all tighten

All in all...now looking to find new realistic Share Price support soon at $3.50. WOW
:)[:p]

Kind Regards to all Rejectors,

Robbo :)

OneUp
18-08-2005, 10:25 AM
Robbo, good to see you're still a Rejector - did you manage to take part in the conference call yesterday?

robbo
18-08-2005, 12:03 PM
The Reject Shop (TRS)

Hi ONe Up,

No, I completely forgot all about it -- [}:)] [:I][:I]

One Up ; do Feel like.... and really was an Idiot for forgetting; and not pluggin myself in to the TRS Phone In....

Did you participate One Up ?? :([:I][?]

By the way, did you "attend" -- and if so, anything good, juicy or worthwhile to note ??

By the way, did you get my MTN response to one of your msot recent posts ?

All the very best mate .....

Always love and appreciate your posts ...... One Up.

You know that though !!

Regards,

Robbo :)

tommy
18-08-2005, 01:53 PM
Hi fellow rejectors,

Wow look at the thinness of the sell side of TRS today!

tommy
18-08-2005, 02:14 PM
More news articles about TRS here:

__________

http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,16293999%255E664,00.html

Retailers reject spending fears
Fleur Leyden
18aug05

DISCOUNT variety chain The Reject Shop and clotheshorse Noni B have bucked a weak retail trading environment to post record results.

Shares in The Reject Shop surged 17 to an eight-month high of $3.22, after the company posted a 26.5 per cent lift in net profit to $7.1 million. Sales rose 12.5 per cent to $203.1 million.

Managing director Barry Saunders signalled the company could snap up some of the 80 Crazy Clark's or Go-Lo outlets that Miller's Retail may close.

Mr Saunders, whose contract has been extended to June 2007, said trading in the first six weeks of the year was on target.

The Reject Shop has 108 stores around Australia and plans to open a further 11 this financial year.

The company announced a 7 dividend, bringing dividends for the year to 17.

And Noni B said it had not noticed a drop in demand for the 12 months to June 30, 2005, unveiling a 41.3 per cent increase in net profit to $6.3 million.

Sales revenue surged 10.6 per cent to $107.3 million.

Managing director Alan Kindl said the company had continued to build market share in a challenging market, without participating in massive discounting that had characterised the sector.

He said trading in the new year was in line with expectations and the company planned to open a further eight Noni B stores during the first half, giving it a total of 185.

The company declared a fully franked final dividend of 7, taking total dividends for the year to 13, compared with 9.5.

Noni B shares added 5 per cent, or 16, to $3.36.

________________

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,16296524%255E28737,00.html

Pump and circumstance
Glenda Korporaal and Katherine Jimenez
August 18, 2005

RISING world fuel prices may not have sent inflation soaring in Australia as they did in the days of the OPEC oil shocks. But there are growing signs that record fuel prices are eating into companies in sensitive areas of the economy such as transport and consumer spending.

"In terms of worrying factors for retail, petrol prices would have to be the number one," says CommSec economist Craig James.

While retail sales this year have recovered from last year's slowdown, James says the record high fuel prices are starting to prompt Australian consumers to cut back on their spending on non-essential and discretionary items such as clothing, electrical goods and eating out.

Coles Myer chief executive John Fletcher rang a warning bell from the retail sector this week when he estimated that the average Australian household budget could be cut by as much as $20 to $30 a week by the fuel price rise over the year.

While other analysts put this at closer to $5 to $10 a week, they agree that the persistent rise in fuel prices is starting to have an effect on consumer spending.

With petrol prices approaching $1.30 a litre, consumers are now starting to take a tougher look at their household budgets.

Australian Retailers Association spokesman Duncan Shaw says higher petrol prices have been damaging retail sales for some time.

"When petrol prices go from 89c a litre to $1.26 a litre it means that a substantial chunk of disposable income has been eroded," Shaw says.

"Something has to suffer. Food tends to keep going but higher petrol prices mean people will put off non-essential spending.

"If your kid's growing and needs a new school shirt, you'll go out and buy it - but you'll wait until it's absolutely necessary."

Shaw also warns that the latest retail figures have been artificially held up by the burst of earlier than usual sales in June.

He argues that this has helped to bring forward consumer spending, with the true effect of record petrol prices yet to feed through into the reported statistics.

"It's going to be fairly tight over the next few months," Shaw says.

[b]He says the figure

robbo
18-08-2005, 02:18 PM
TRS

The Reject Shop

Heh Tommy,.. and all Rejectors....

Great posts by you here Tommy,

My $3.50 Target (3 posts ago....) is looking closer Every second !

Suspect The Fundies Insto & Superannuation Fund Mgers.... money -- the percentage of their portfolios, that is earmarked for the Retail Sector.....(which their are some that have to have; .... in their Spread and variously " weighted portfolios" ....);

--may be starting to be Selling and now moving OUT of other Retailer stocks .....like Colarado CDO, Flight Centre (FLT) and maybe Just Group (JST), to name a few...... and NOW into,.... and thus supporting --- The Reject (TRS)--- ...... which, I am sure, wer hre at TRS Land, ......... do NOT at all mind !! [:p]

Regards,

Robbo :)

tommy
18-08-2005, 02:33 PM
quote:Originally posted by davidrob

TRS
My $3.50 Target (3 posts ago....) is looking closer Every second !
[:p]


Hi robbo!

I believe it won't take long to fulfill your target , and when TRS's market capitalization reaches the $100 million mark, the dynamics should change again in favor of TRS[:p] More instos should/will REJECT other retailers' stocks and ACCEPT The Reject Shop!

OneUp
18-08-2005, 04:32 PM
quote:Originally posted by OneUp
The argument goes that, even if the economy is hurting, people put off going overseas or buying a new plasma TV screen, rather than soap and the other "daily essentials" that TRS stocks (or at least we all hope they don't stop buying soap!). It's essentially an elasticity of demand argument.

If anything, tighter economic conditions may well mean people go the extra mile to scout out bargains and stretch their dollars further. (So instead of paying an extra couple of bucks to get these items at the supermarket, they go down the other part of the mall to TRS).



Good to see this scenario being played out.

TRS is currently trading on a PE of about 12. IMHO a fairer PE would be 15-20 ($4.30-$5.80) as TRS can be depended upon to grow year in year out regardless of economic conditions at a very healthy clip. The safest and surest bet I have come across for a long time.



quote:Originally posted by davidrob
No, I completely forgot all about it -- [}:)] [:I][:I]

One Up ; do Feel like.... and really was an Idiot for forgetting; and not pluggin myself in to the TRS Phone In....


That makes two of us [:I]. Anyone else manage to plug in?

tommy
18-08-2005, 05:57 PM
quote:Originally posted by OneUp
TRS is currently trading on a PE of about 12. IMHO a fairer PE would be 15-20 ($4.30-$5.80) as TRS can be depended upon to grow year in year out regardless of economic conditions at a very healthy clip. The safest and surest bet I have come across for a long time.

Agree with you oneup that TRS is really undervalued. Considering it has a consistent track record and being recession proof notwithstanding the harsh retail environment, I think this company stands out as a relatively safe investment for long term holders. I'm also looking forward to the annual results from SAI (which I also hold), another relatively safe punt.


quote:Originally posted by OneUp
Anyone else manage to plug in?

No, I was too busy... anybody else???

tommy
05-09-2005, 04:25 PM
TRS reaches $3.5 mark[:p] Sell side extremely thin!!

tommy
09-09-2005, 03:21 PM
TRS now $3.75, at this rate $100 million market cap will be in striking distance soon[}:)]

robbo
09-09-2005, 04:16 PM
TRS The Reject Shop

Hi Tommy,

-- TRS -- is obviously, IMO, now becoming one of the fave Retail medium Term Investments/Holdings; for a lot of smaller funds/ LICS/super funds etc etc.... etc etc nowadays, as the Support is inreasing in its solid following ....by each subsequent week...

Many such fundies, have declared Their significant and/or increased holdings on THE ASX, for TRS ; .... over the past 3 - 4 months now....

.... and why should (TRS) NOT be well supported !!

Indeed ...

Reject Shop, (TRS) -- is in my Top Four Retailers, as shareholdings I hold now ...

The other three are: Noni B (NBL), David Jones (DJS) and Super Cheap Auto (SUL) ....

Hopefully, for TRS, -- it IS -- $4.00 here we come, with maybe one or two; very minor/ small retracements ??.... before we get there ???

Cannot personally; and therefore will not try .... and "pick retracements...." ; so will not even dare try and pick the ..."tips and dips" ....

Regards,

Robbo :)

tommy
09-09-2005, 04:32 PM
Hi Robbo,

Yes, it is good to know that TRS is attracting more and more insto attention [:I] But what I am really waiting for is how the talks with Millers pan out. Have you heard any noise about this lately? No deal signed yet?

As for possible minor retracements in the future, to be quite honest I would like to see that happen so that I can top up more TRS shares on the cheap[}:)]

Halebop
10-09-2005, 05:45 PM
quote:Originally posted by cujodog

What a *ucking joke this share is - how can the price be that high - what's the world coming too - forgive me while I throw up


???? !!!!

I'd say they were somewhere between fairly and modestly priced rather than at the overpriced end of the spectrum. Quite a strongly expressed opinion ...although you are named after a rabid dog! [:p]

Care to offer some insight into why the price is high?

Disc: Not a holder but like the way they do business. Another one of those shares I thought "maybe" but couldn't quite overcome the inertia.

Dough Boy
12-09-2005, 02:41 PM
quote:Originally posted by cujodog

What a *ucking joke this share is - how can the price be that high - what's the world coming too - forgive me while I throw up


Your reasoning for this opinion?

tommy
14-09-2005, 01:53 PM
http://dailytelegraph.news.com.au/story/0,20281,16593310-5001024,00.html

Retail tale of trouble and woe

September 14, 2005

MILLER'S Retail has slipped into the red after writedowns and costs from store closures tainted full-year results.

The discount retailer reported a $103.4 million loss for the 12 months to June 30, 2005, down from an $8.6 million profit in the previous year.

Revenue rose 0.9 per cent to $1.125 billion.

Apparel sales rose 3 per cent to $463.5 million. Sales from the discount arm, which includes Go-Lo and Crazy Clarks, were down – $657.5 million from $658.4 million.

Miller's chief executive Gary Perlstein said the firm, which also owns the Miller's Fashion Club, Katies, Crossroads and the 1626 brand, had written down $69.1 million in intangible discount variety assets.

It also sustained a $60.3 million one-off restructuring cost as it closed 18 underperforming stores.

Mr Perlstein said the company had enormous potential in the discount variety sector although it was lagging behind competitors such as The Reject Shop.

"We've taken the bitter medicine, we're swallowing it, and I believe these decisions we've made will return our business to where it was and where it needs to be."

In June, Miller's said it was in talks with New Zealand rival The Warehouse Group about a merger of Warehouse's Australian operations with Millers' discount variety business.

Mr Perlstein yesterday said nothing had been finalised although Warehouse was one of about six industry and non-industry players Miller's was talking to about the disposal of its underperforming stores.

"While we've got our program of these 80 stores to close by stealth – one-by-one – if somebody came along and wanted 20 of them or 30 of them or all of them, we'd do a deal," he said.

If the stores are not sold or merged, the company would continue with its closure program, said Mr Perlstein.

"We don't want to give them away," he said.

tommy
16-09-2005, 07:03 PM
Excellent article in Aspect Huntley's newsletter about TRS, recommending
Accumulate: $3.70-$4.10[:I]
Hold: $4.10-$5.30[:p]

It mentions experienced management team that follows the Wal-Mart principle, the new distribution centre in Victoria (fully operational by FY07)and investments in radio frequency technology aimed at accelerated stocktaking.

This stock must be one of the safest bets in the retail industry in the long run especially when other inefficient retailers are suffering from higher costs and lower consumer spending [8D] I will continue to hold TRS and top up more on the cheap!

tommy
22-09-2005, 03:50 AM
http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/rich-look-like-the-big-spenders/2005/09/21/1126982123144.html

Rich look like the big spenders
By Stephen McMahon
Retail Reporter
September 22, 2005

LUXURY goods retailers and top-end department stores are best placed to benefit from the expected surge in sales in the run-up to Christmas as the income tax cuts benefiting top earners over lower-income workers take effect, say Citigroup analysts.

Consumer fears over rising petrol prices and house price movements are also expected to abate, given economic forecasts of 4 per cent growth in wages, stabilised employment rates and a hold on interest rates. This positive outlook comes despite the Westpac-Melbourne Institute's measure of consumer sentiment collapsing by 13.3 per cent this month, the eighth-biggest fall in the 31-year history of the survey.

Citigroup analyst Craig Woolford said the spike in petrol prices was temporary, with the price set to fall to about $1.20 a litre by the middle of next month, while the housing market had stabilised in recent months.

The report said income tax cuts "skewed towards higher-income earners" would be the main catalyst in the predicted 5 per cent lift in retail sales expected by next month and December.
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"The retail outlook is strong," said Mr Woolford. "Consumers will spend if they are comfortable about the economic outlook and their own financial position.

"We believe underlying demand is strong and retailers selling to high-income earners, such as David Jones, will perform best."

The greatest benefits from the income tax cuts will be among the top 15 per cent of income earners, who will receive a 1.3-1.7 per cent increase in their take-home pay, according to the report.

Based on 2003 data from the Australian Tax Office, analysts say the top 5 per cent of taxpayers will get $2162 in income tax cuts while the top 15 per cent will receive a minimum of $312 a year.

This week, Myer and David Jones kicked off a further round of discount sales.

But concerns of poor annual results from the retail sector have declined in recent weeks as retailers such as the Just Group and the Reject Shop reported better than expected results.

Just Group managing director Howard McDonald said sales for the first six weeks of this financial year were already ahead of last year and growing at more than 2.5 per cent.

"We are positive about the future despite a subdued retail environment and worries about petrol price increases," he said.

The slowdown in the roll-out of discount department stores such as Target and Kmart is also expected to aid an improvement in sales figures for mainstream retailers. Only the Big W banner is expected to expand.

OneUp
22-09-2005, 11:47 AM
quote:Originally posted by tommy

TRS now $3.75, at this rate $100 million market cap will be in striking distance soon[}:)]


$103 million today [:p]. It just won't quit!

soulman
22-09-2005, 04:02 PM
If consumer aren't spending because of high petrol price, then 'The Reject' would benefit because they sell high volume and attractive price goods.

Maybe many are ditching high cost goods to the more affordable at TRS. Not sure, but their SP are looking good and their PE aren't that demanding. The problem is of course the liquidity in the shares.

tommy
22-09-2005, 04:15 PM
Hi all REJECTORS,

Sell side is still thin, looks like there is still some steam left in TRS (didn't expect it to hit reach $100 million market cap so quickly!). If you want a retail stock that performs in both BOOM and GLOOM, you can't beat TRS!

TRS is getting quite a bit of coverage in investor newsletters and the media these days, so that must be helping. The fact that they have a steady track record of organic growth must be comforting to instos too, not to mention the dividends;)

tommy
29-09-2005, 04:52 PM
The Reject Shop (TRS) hits $4!! Sell side still unbelievably thin[:p]

http://asx.netquote.com.au/charts.asp?code=trs&x=0&y=0

David Hardman
03-10-2005, 04:30 PM
quote:Originally posted by cujodog

This share price is a complete joke - when will the rest of intelligent investors work this out?!


Prolly the same time you post something intelligent.

What is your beef with TRS?

TRS trading on a PE around 14 which is still under the retail sector and market average.

With the growth potential and earnings history of TRS I still feel comfortable at these levels. Wake me up when the stock hits $5.50 and I may look at selling you some.

OneUp
03-10-2005, 04:59 PM
Personally not planning to sell any TRS until it gets into overvalued territory i.e. a forward PE of 25-30 (about twice the current share price). Even then there would be many other less deserving shares trading at higher multiples. Even though the rise in the last month or so has been exponential ($4.35 today from $2.90 in August), there's a long way to go before this one is overvalued.

tommy
03-10-2005, 08:13 PM
I would argue that now that TRS has hit the $100 million mark in market cap, there will be more instos showing interest in buying TRS. They already have an impressive list of instos as their shareholders for a company of such small size. TRS is NOT like Millers but is more like Wal-Mart in terms of business model. That is why its track record is solid and its growth prospects are bright. If anyone thinks that TRS is a joke, the rest of the retail sector must be a lot worse than a joke. TRS is a gem!

Halebop
03-10-2005, 11:23 PM
Methinks Cujodog is a Troll seeking to become Inflamous.

OneUp
19-10-2005, 06:34 PM
Big gain for TRS today:

[u]Outlook</u>
To re-state our forecast for FY2006 is net profit after tax of between $7.9 and $8.1 million (Current Accounting Standards) or $7.5m- $7.7m (AIFRS Adjusted). Our current trading performance for the September quarter has been strong. Sales are ahead of budget with our new store opening program is ahead of plan; and comparative store sales are slightly above plan.

tommy
03-11-2005, 06:12 PM
Recently I asked The Reject Shop as to whether they are in talks with Millers but they firmly denied it. Mmmm??

_______________

Miller's discussing sale of stores
Thursday Nov 3 17:04 AEST

Miller's Retail Ltd is locked in talks over the sale of its entire discount variety store operations, scrapping its previous plan to divest only 20 per cent of the embattled business.

In a brief statement, Miller's said it was currently in negotiations on a strictly confidential basis for the sale of the discount variety businesses.

"The terms and conditions of the sale have not yet been finalised or agreed and there is therefore no guarantee that the sale will proceed," Miller's said.

"If an agreement is reached or the negotiations terminate, MRL (Miller's) will inform the market immediately."

A Miller's spokesperson confirmed that the discussions related to the group's entire discount variety operations.

However, the spokesperson would not comment on whether Miller's was still in talks with more than one potential buyer or had narrowed the field down to one party.

In June, Miller's announced a strategic review that included plans to offload 80 stores in its underperforming discount variety store business.

The Sydney-based company owns a total of 353 discount variety stores, trading under the Go-Lo, Crazy Clark's and Chickenfeed brands.

Miller's has already offloaded 18 stores and in September announced that it was aiming to sell another 62 over the next year, adding that it was in talks with six potential buyers.

Interested parties included Melbourne-based retailer The Reject Shop Ltd, which has flagged its interest in a number of Miller's stores.

A spokesperson for the Reject Shop Ltd confirmed that it was not the company referred to in Thursday's announcement.

Miller's has also been in discussions with trans-Tasman retailer The Warehouse Group Ltd about merging their discount variety stores and selling the combined business in a deal estimated to be worth about $300 million.

The Warehouse could not be reached to confirm whether it was still planning to merge its 130 "yellow shed" Australian stores with Miller's discount variety business.

However, UBS analyst Michael Peet said it was unlikely that the Miller's statement related to The Warehouse, as The Warehouse had not issued its own statement informing the market that it was close to a deal.

Mr Peet said the most likely buyer was a private equity company.

"It makes more sense for a private equity company to buy the business and then sell or re-float it at some stage down the track," he told AAP.

Mr Peet said the ongoing downturn in the retail sector was quite favourable to the buyer.

"It's probably in the buyer's interest as discount variety has been struggling for some time," he said.

"At the same time, you've got to be saying these conditions should improve over the next couple of years."

Miller's, which also owns the Miller's Fashion Club, Katies Crossroads and the 1626 apparel brands, reported an annual net loss of $103.4 million in 2004/05, when writedowns in the discount variety store business and restructuring costs wiped $129.4 million from the result.

Miller's shares rose 3.7 per cent, finishing 3.5 cents higher at 97.5 cents.

tommy
04-11-2005, 12:36 PM
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,17132254%255E643,00.html


Malled Miller's dumps discount
Blair Speedy
November 04, 2005

HOPES of a settlement in the price war at the fiercely competitive discount end of the suburban mall remain finely balanced after Miller's Retail put its entire discount business up for sale.

But it was unclear yesterday whether New Zealand's Warehouse group, the catalyst for a two-year price war in Australia, would figure in any sale talks, making a turnaround at the bottom end of the retail sector unlikely, according to analysts.

Warehouse was believed to have earlier approached Miller's with a proposal for the two companies to package their discount variety operations in Australia for a single trade sale, providing much-needed consolidation in the crowded and highly competitive $8 billion sector.

While Miller's Retail called a trading halt on its shares, Warehouse, which is listed on both the Australian and New Zealand stock exchanges and has 122 stores on this side of the Tasman, was keeping silent yesterday as its shares continued to trade.

"It's not really going to make that much difference if Warehouse isn't taken out as well," one analyst said.






Miller's had been discussing offloading 20 per cent of its 340 stores, but yesterday's announcement puts the entire business, which makes up nearly 60 per cent of Miller's sales, on the blocks. Chairman Geoff Levy and chief executive Gary Perlstein have been working to turn the company around after the company slumped to a $103 million loss for the year. Its shares have soared in the past two weeks from 80c to 97.5c, up 3.5c yesterday.

The failure of the companies to combine their retailing operations into a more effective discount competitor could, however, be a benefit for Coles Myer, which controls about 45 per cent of the discount retail market with its Kmart and Target chains; and Woolworths, whose Big W has about 31 per cent; and the Reject Shop is estimated to have a share of about 2 per cent.

Miller's called a trading halt over its stock just after trading commenced yesterday, saying it was in negotiations "on a strictly confidential basis" for the sale of the discount variety businesses, comprising more than 300 Go-Lo and Crazy Clark's outlets.

"The terms and conditions of the sale have not yet been finalised or agreed and there is therefore no guarantee that the sale will proceed," the company said.

Analysts said they expected a private equity firm to buy the assets, with Allco Equity Partners, Castle Harlan Australian Mezzanine Partners, Archer Capital and Catalyst all having been speculated as possible purchasers.

Reject Shop managing director Barry Saunders, whose company had been mooted as a possible buyer of a number of Miller's discount stores, said his company was not involved in the talks.

A Miller's spokesman declined to comment on whether negotiations were being pursued with more than one potential buyer.

Miller's, which also owns the Katies, Crossroads and 1626 fashion chains, has been hit by three profit downgrades over the past 12 months.

The most recent involved a number of one-off write-downs associated with excess inventory, 80 discount store closures and slashing the carrying value of the discount business from $31 million to zero.

UBS analyst Michael Peet said the ongoing downturn in the retail sector would play into the hands of potential buyers.

"It's probably in the buyer's interest as discount variety has been struggling for some time," he said.

"At the same time, you've got to be saying these conditions should improve over the next couple of years."

ASXIOU
14-11-2005, 09:16 AM
Congrats to all you TRS holders. Superb pick. Was speaking to a mate on the weekend who works for a major fund and had nothing but good words to say.;) With the annual santa claus rally for retailers about to gather speed I reckon you will have another very rewarding couple of months (or years) ahead of you. :)

robbo
14-11-2005, 01:44 PM
The Reject Shop (TRS)

Hi Cujodog,

Yeah I see exactly and precisely What you Mean Cujodog....

With The Price Rising from $1.90 to $4.32 in 17 months in a Safe Retail Dynamo Stock like the Reject Shop (TRS), which is Only a Share Price Gain of 127% plus a dividend of 5.79% making a total gain of only 133%. ;);)

Yep, it's a Joke. A hilarious Total Joke..... [:o)][:o)]

However, having Invested $130K in TRS, at the outset, and traded in and out once profitably -- and now still in TRS , with a total gain in 17 months of only a joke like gain of $175K, making the Investment now worth a paltry $302K, I agree that it is a hopeless Joke....

So funny a joke..... hmmmm...[:p]

Kindest Regards,

Robbo:):)

robbo
14-11-2005, 04:37 PM
The Reject Shop (TRS)

Sorry not at all.... on your wavelength there cujodog...[?][?][?][?]

But God Bless you, and YOU have a great day

Kind Regards,

Robbo:):)

Halebop
17-11-2005, 03:28 PM
Insightful as always.

OneUp
17-11-2005, 03:34 PM
quote:Originally posted by cujodog

This share is still a complete joke - how can the price be going up, compared to other companies who have much better prospects - it really *hits me.


Which other companies do you hate cujo? Might look to get me some of those ;).

Damo79
17-11-2005, 03:43 PM
quote:Originally posted by cujodog

This share is an absolute joke - and the people who hold shares in this company are also jokes.


What the.... Is this guy for real?

robbo
21-11-2005, 12:23 PM
The Reject Shop (TRS)

Geeee.... the Market and Funds, seems to love and Support TRS, does it not!! :)[:p]...
Almost feel like choking on my cornflakes to whisper, that TRS has every chance of breaking fabulous five-- $5.00 sahre price Guestiamte for TRS ....that is...wow... :)

--After all, there is only another 12-13% for TRS to get to the $5.00 number....., although there may be one more slight "profit take re-trace"-- before we get there ....[?][?]

-- So then: $5.00 for Christmas.... ?

Reckon there is a 70% even 75% good chance.....from where I sit..... Here At The PUB !!

Regards,

Robbo :)

tommy
25-11-2005, 03:46 PM
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,17355318%255E643,00.html

http://finance.news.com.au/story/0,10166,17355319-14334,00.html

$200m bargain for discounters
Blair Speedy
November 25, 2005

MILLER'S Retail and New Zealand's Warehouse Group yesterday signed a long-awaited deal to shed their troubled Australian discount variety businesses in a combined sale worth $200 million.

Private equity investors Catalyst Investment Managers and Castle Harlin Australian Mezzanine Partners (CHAMP) have picked up 335 stores from Miller's, operating under the Crazy Clarks, Go-Lo and Chickenfeed banners, along with 122 Warehouse Australasia outlets.

Miller's will take a $50 million loss on the sale, while Warehouse will flee back across the Tasman - five years after entering the Australian market by acquiring the Silly Solly's and Crazy Clint's chains - up to $NZ90 million ($85 million) out of pocket.

Warehouse chief executive Ian Morrice said the company would have required $100 million of investment to build necessary scale in the Australian market, and so decided to concentrate on its Kiwi assets instead.

The new owners are aiming to wring up to $60 million in annual cost savings out of the businesses by integrating back-office functions and driving down supply chain costs - with annual turnover of more than $1 billion allowing considerable leverage when negotiating with suppliers.


The deal means the Reject Shop, which had previously canvassed the prospect of buying some of Millers' underperforming discount stores, will now face a renewed challenge from a competitor with four times as many outlets and five times as much annual turnover.

Management from both Warehouse and Miller's discount arm have backed the sale, taking a combined equity stake of 10 per cent in the merged business.

Following closure of the deal, expected before Christmas, the group will be run by Ian Tsicalas, currently chief executive of Warehouse Australia, at the head of a team drawn from both Miller's and Warehouse.

CHAMP executive director David Jones said the company would wait until after the crucial holiday trading period before making any significant changes to the business.

With a view to expansion, the team would reassess Miller's plans to shut down 80 underperforming stores, of which about 30 had already been closed since a strategic review earlier this year.

Mr Jones said the new owners believed that up to half of the remaining stores earmarked for closure could be saved, and new store openings would not be far behind. Catalyst investment director Trent Peterson said the joint owners expected to hold on to the new assets for five to seven years before considering a disposal.

Miller's chief executive Gary Perlstein said his company's remaining businesses - apparel chains Katies, Miller's Fashion Club, Crossroads and 1626 - had made a good start to the summer trading season, following a recent revamp.

Miller's shares rose 10c to $1.18 yesterday while Warehouse fell 2c to $3.75.

tommy
17-12-2005, 02:04 PM
http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,17589645%255E664,00.html


Retailers hit low spot
17dec05

TOO many winter coats, spiking petrol prices and savvier shoppers.

Retailers couldn't take a trick this year and Christmas trading, although spruiked by most retailers as "pretty strong", is, according to mixed economic data, unlikely to be a bonanza.

It was the same story this time last year, when weak Christmas trading and a housing downturn kicked off retail's of 2005.

This year's warmer-than-usual winter meant apparel retailers, already stocked up from quiet Christmas trade, struggled to offload winter stock.

The result was flabby inventory levels, which were then further crunched by low consumer sentiment.

According to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute index, sentiment for November fell almost 12 per cent down on the same time last year.

Pricey petrol bowsers in September only exacerbated the situation.

And when Myer made the surprising decision last festive season to go on sale five weeks before Christmas, it inadvertently taught shoppers to hold back their spending until sale time.

It is unclear whether the year's tough retail conditions have hit rock bottom but early signs are promising.

According to a raw spending estimate in the Cashcard Retail Activity Index, released this week, Australians have spent more at the start of this Christmas season than they did at the start of Christmas in 2004.

Cash registers have jangled to the tune of $8.9 billion between December 1 and 12, up $600 million on the same period last year, according to data obtained from EFTPOS transactions.

The result follows a raw spending level of $17.6 billion for November, which amounted to almost a 1 per cent rise in the raw numbers.

Some analysts say barring one or more interest rate rises, stronger consumer sentiment will return in 2006.

Christmas 2007, says Ross Honeywill, director of the Centre for Customer Strategy, is what retailers are now looking forward to.

"My sense is that we're bouncing along the bottom and some retailers are off the bottom and rising," he says.

"It isn't going to get any worse and for some it's already better."

BUT other pundits, such as Wilson HTM head of mid-cap industrial research, David Arter, says the retail environment remains relatively flat.

"I do believe it's close to the bottom but I wouldn't say it has actually turned yet," he says.

"During the next six to 12 months the biggest variables that will dictate consumer sentiment and retail sales are very much interest rates and fuel price."

Adding to the EFTPOS numbers are other signs that consumers are regaining their appetites, spending $17.24 billion in October according to retail trade figures.

This equated to a relatively flat 0.5 per cent spending increase compared with a month earlier when, in September – the month that petrol prices peaked at almost $1.40 per litre – there was a 0.3 per cent decline.

But taken on an annual basis the figures reveal retail sales growth was a sluggish 3.2 per cent for September – about half the long-term average.

Mr Honeywill said trading for discretionary retailers such as David Jones and some specialty retailers who boast a wealthier clientele was improving, with confidence from their spenders returning in June.

These types of customers are also less likely to be hurt by rising petrol prices so the comeback of upmarket retailing has maintained its momentum.

For businesses at the lower discretionary end, or those stuck in the middle of the discretionary divide, like Myer, the recovery will be slower and more gradual, says Mr Honeywill.

These retailers have borne the brunt of the tough year, with the recent surge in petrol really hurting.

FOLLOWING the release of Coles Myer's first quarter sales results last month, chief executive John Fletcher said bumper petrol prices ensured the retailer had its most difficult quarter for some time.

"In broad terms, when that $20, $30, $40 per week goes out of the pockets of t

steve fleming
18-12-2005, 08:39 AM
hi Tommy and others,

i visited the Reject Shop for the first time ever yesterday (trying to find some cheap Xmas presents!!) and was actually very impressed with both the quality and range of product...however what was more impressive were the number of people shopping there, you could hardly move through the aisles due to the number of people and it took me about 10 mins queing up to be served....looks like they might do quite nicely over the xmas period...

tommy
13-02-2006, 04:44 PM
Hi all REJECTORS!

Hehehe, time to make easy money again with TRS (so easy it's a joke, eh?) Anyone still holding?

____

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TRS&E=ASX&N=249831

13 February 2006

Re: Shareholder and Analyst Teleconference Presentation

An investor briefing on The Reject Shop’s half year trading result to 25 December 2005 will be presented by Barry Saunders, Managing Director and Chris Bryce, Chief Financial Officer via teleconference on Wednesday 15 February at 11.30am.


For shareholder and analyst enquiries please contact Graham Lever, Company Secretary before 5pm Tuesday 14 February 2006 on (03) 9371 5555 or alternatively via email at glever@rejectshop.com.au. if you wish to participate.

For media enquiries please contact Geoff Fowlstone, Fowlstone Communications on 0413 746 949.

Graham Lever Company Secretary The Reject Shop Limited ABN 33 006 122 676
245 Racecourse Rd, Kensington, Victoria, Australia 3031
Tel: (03) 9371 5555 Fax: (03) 9372 1211

Phaedrus
13-02-2006, 06:37 PM
Holders of this stock will certainly be laughing - all the way to the bank.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/TRS213001.gif

tommy
13-02-2006, 06:55 PM
Thanks for the chart Phaedrus, TRS has performed wonderfully since its float and IMHO is one of the best stocks in the retail industry due to its strictly-enforced business model similar to that of Walmart.

This is one of my defensive bullet-proof organic growth stocks in my portfolio, so I'm looking forward to hearing the half-year results due out very shortly;)

Agree with cujodog that TRS is a joke in that it is a no-brainer for long-term holders. Great management, excellent past performance and performed well even amid harsh retail conditions. Love this stock and laughing all the way to the bank[:p]

OneUp
14-02-2006, 02:34 PM
Cujo you crack me up :D:D

Tommy, will you partipate in the conference call? I can't make it unfortunately. By the price action recently the market seems to be expecting good things. TRS hasn't let us down yet!!

tommy
14-02-2006, 03:55 PM
quote:Originally posted by OneUp


Tommy, will you partipate in the conference call? I can't make it unfortunately. By the price action recently the market seems to be expecting good things. TRS hasn't let us down yet!!


Can't participate either tomorrow... robbo where are you, are you still holding TRS?

patsy
14-02-2006, 04:55 PM
I have been slowly accumulating this stcok since One Up started this thread in 2004 (thanks One Up for your initial analysis). It's quite tightly held so it's worth keeping an eye on it for a few weeks and then buy into the slight dips it has over time.

There is very little commentary on TRS in Australian's discussion boards so it's good it has remained undiscovered... Very few brokers follow it (which is another big plus) but the likes of Aspect Huntley have an "accumulate" rating. I saw some of their shops in Oz and they were absolutely packed with people during xmas time.

It's my single biggest holding in Oz.

cujodog - your comment has explained clearly to me why has happened what has happened to you in the NZX.

tommy
14-02-2006, 05:07 PM
Good on ya patsy for accumulating on price dips, TRS is relatively illiquid as you said and there are many instos holding it which is unusual for such a small cap company.

It's not a stock for traders but a good stock to hold and accumulate on any weakness when the retail sector as a whole goes out of favor (in the past TRS bounced back to sustain its upward trajectory).

I am a bit disappointed that TRS didn't grab a few of Millers' branches last year to accelerate the pace of expansion but at the end of the day the management obviously didn't go for it for a reason.

I too have checked out a couple of TRS stores to see how they are run, and every time I go they seem to have updated their product offerings. Run by minimal staff (low labor costs), squillions of different types of products offered at a discount and always busy with bargain hunters.

Keeping my fingers crossed for the latest report[:I]

patsy
14-02-2006, 06:20 PM
Thanks Tommy.

The latest annual report reads about organic growth (as opposed to taking over teh likes of Miller's) with quite a few branches planned for opening over the next couple of years.

Incidentally, while researching TRS, I've also come across other listed retilers/distributors and have decided also to put some $ in Metcash Limite, which has done quite well too.

OneUp
15-02-2006, 11:58 AM
And it's a beaut!

$8.7m NPAT for the half year - up 20.4%. So reliable. Year in year out, it seems we can expect 20% profit growth from TRS. This kind of solid, predictable growth justifies a P/E as high as 30 (many less deserving companies enjoy that now). Depending on the 2H performance, then TRS is trading at a P/E of 13.2-14.0 (assuming anywhere between breakeven and losing $500k in 2H06). That's just too low for such an oustanding company. Could very easily double in price again this year, although more likely we will see a good 50%.

Just 26% per year share price growth over 10 years will make TRS a 10 bagger. Maybe not a hare, but not a tortoise either.

patsy
15-02-2006, 12:58 PM
Have a look at the PowerPoint presentation available through the ASX site. It reminds me of WHS during the period 1994-2004 - but better.

OneUp
15-02-2006, 01:12 PM
OK, well I managed to pull a few strings and got to listen in on the results presentation afterall. Will try and be as detailed as I can about what I heard. Overall the presentation was uniformly positive. Also note that there were a few analysts in the conference call (Ord Minnet, CZZ Securities asked questions...probably others in the background as well).

Barry Saunders speaking:
Pleasing result, sticking to retail fundamentals - aim to always improve very focused business model. Pushing further into Queensland. Expect 1st store in WA in 6 months. Christmas season good - discovering even more potential to drive sales than they had previously realised. Telemarine - due to commence in FY2007 is being developed (didn't quite catch what he was talking about here).

Leverage shelf edge pricing, and a bunch of other new technologies like radio frequencies etc. On radio frequencies, encountered a few technical problems, but expect the benefits of this to start flow in 2H. Also visited the USA in November to see seasonal trends - very informative. Visited several large distribution centres, which have helped in planning for TRS's own new large distribution centre which will be away by early FY07 - and also highlighted new opportunities.

Merchandise...greater focus in the future. More detailed planning led to better execution over peek Xmas period - reduced need for clearance action. Stock remains at a very clean level. Improved promotional programme, so sales better than expected.

Strong seasional trade. All new stores performed well. Margin up due to less mark down, improved sales in higher margin categories.

Op costs up: investment in new DC $300-400k., exiting existing DC and E$2 stores ($200k impact).

Capex major this year. Normal $4-6.5m, this year more than $12.5m.

Net cash position: not as strong as may be suggested by financials due to high capex this year..

Enterprise Agreement: benefits will be realized from improved staff shifts arranegemtns.

Upgraded NPAT forecast to $8.0-8.2m. Retail might soften, .however forecast is "prudent and achievable" (read: they will beat it), because of improvements already in train. Will continue to position for further growth. Strong same store sales growth throughout the half.. Sales are STILL consistently strong in Jan/Feb - not weakening as worry warts suggest. Only word of caution: expect impact from new competition in a little time.

Payout ratio will rise from 60% to 65%.

Long term: aim for 10% growth in store numbers every year. Can handle up to 20%, but find it difficult to identify that many good locations.

OneUp
15-02-2006, 01:25 PM
By the way Patsy, glad to hear you've got a large position in TRS and have no doubt been enjoying a great year. About 20% of my portfolio is with this company, making it my second largest after AGS. Great attraction with TRS to me is that it's safe as houses (no debt to speak of, prodigous cashflows - 33.0x interest cover!! - they have many suppliers and many customers and many locations so no one thing going wrong can derail this company) , very predictable growth (with a focus on "continuous improvement") and undervalued. I hope we all enjoy 20-30% p.a. returns for the foreseeable future from this company.

Not surprisingly we're seeing TRS rocket today - near $5 as I type.

tommy
15-02-2006, 03:09 PM
Hi all fellow rejectors,

Rejectors get rewarded once again with solid results! What a safe play... love TRS[:p]

Thanks for giving us the rundown of the conference call oneup, highly appreciate you sharing the info mate.

Half-year report:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TRS&E=ASX&N=249926

Presentation:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TRS&E=ASX&N=249925

____
http://www.egoli.com.au/egoli/egoliNewsViewsPage.asp?PageID=%7B6304BEF6-102E-4A4D-B8E8-D94B478FF6BB%7D


The Reject Shop sees 20.4% growth in net profit
15/02/06 By: Alex Lu

The Reject Shop Limited (TRS) today announced a 20.4% increase in net profit after tax to $8.7 million for the half year ended 25 December 2005. The retailer said the result was driven by comparable store sales growth of 5.8%, “strong” Christmas trading and 10 new store openings.


Revenues from continuing activities was up 14.3% to $127.7 million, while gross margin rose from 49.2% to 50.1% of sales compared to the corresponding period last year.

The company said the increase in gross margin reflected strong trading in higher margin seasonal merchandise during November and December, and a reduced cost of clearance during the period resulting from improved item quantification and allocations.

Operating costs, excluding depreciation and amortisation, as a percentage of sales increased from 38.2% to 38.7%, compared to the previous corresponding period.

The group noted that this was primarily due to the full impact of the costs associated with the expansion of the merchandise team in the second half of FY2005 and the uplift in short term wage costs associated with the introduction of the store Enterprise Agreement (EA).

In addition, the Reject Shop has increased its NPAT forecast for the full year from an initial forecast range of $7.5 million to $7.7 million to a range of between $8.0 million to $8.2 million, an increase of 6.5%.

Managing director Mr Barry Saunders said despite speculation that the retail environment may moderate, the company is confident of achieving the upgraded NPAT guidance.

“We continue to actively manage our store portfolio, with plans to open 4 stores in the second half,” he said.

“By the end of FY2006 we will have achieved our objective of servicing every trade area in which we operate with a Reject Shop store offering a comprehensive product mix.”

“We will be seeking further new sites in our current markets for the FY2007 program, including Queensland where the strength of trading in the first half was an important indicator of the company’s potential in new trade areas,” Mr Saunders added.

“In addition, we will make further progress on securing opportunities in Western Australia.”

The group has declared a fully franked interim dividend of 13c per share, up from 10c last year.

At 1155 AEDT, shares in The Reject Shop had jumped 25c, or 5.4% to $4.85.

tommy
15-02-2006, 05:39 PM
Ninemsn news article:
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=67828

Reject Shop continues to prosper
Wednesday Feb 15 13:40 AEDT


Discount chain The Reject Shop Ltd continues to thrive in the tough trading conditions, opening 10 stores during the first half and with plans to expand into Western Australia this year.

The low end of the retail sector is proving a goldmine for The Reject Shop which lifted its annual net profit forecast by 6.5 per cent, to a range of between $8 million and $8.2 million.

This compared to the initial forecast range of $7.5 million to $7.7 million.

The company posted a 20.4 per cent rise in first half net profit to a record $8.65 million.

Managing director Barry Saunders said no-one is immune from the trade cycle but The Reject Shop is seen as a cheaper option when discretionary spending tightens.

"Our fundamental purpose is to help people save money and when things look tough they look for alternatives," Mr Saunders said.

The lift in first half profit was on the back of a 14.3 per cent rise in sales to $127.7 million, with comparable store sales growth of 5.8 per cent, strong Christmas trading and 10 new store openings.

The Reject Shop is opening a new store in WA this half with six to eight openings planned over the next two to three years in the state.

A store opening in Grafton, NSW will take the total number to 112.

Mr Saunders said the strong interim result resulted from the sales growth in traffic building ranges such as toothpaste, beauty products and wooden coat hangers, an improved Christmas seasonal performance and a more effective promotional program.

He said while the second half of the year slows, the company undertakes projects and development activities which incur costs in what is a quiet period.

"There are some loss weeks in the second half but that gap has been diminishing over time such as we are now EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) positive in the second half," he said.

The retailer lifted its interim dividend to 13 cents per share, up from 10 cents previously.

Mr Beattie said the board intended to increase the annual payout ratio to protect shareholders from the adverse non-cash effect on net profit of the new international financial reporting standards.

Under old accounting measures, The Reject Shop's first half net profit would have been $9.0 million, up 20.2 per cent.

The Reject Shop posted a $7.06 million net profit for 2004/05, under old accounting standards.

tommy
16-03-2006, 01:21 AM
quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Gee I really don't like this company. The share price is ridiculous. Who the hell keeps buying these shares?


People who know how to invest to make money;)

robbo
16-03-2006, 11:14 AM
Hi fellow Rejecters, One Up, Tommy,cujodog et al....

Gotta a bit of a theory as to Two (2) of the Reasons, why The Reject Shop does so well.... apart from TRS's excellent Inventory Mangement, Stock Turnover, enlightened Human Resources policy, Store Site Selection, Cost Mangement,Strategic Focus on defined recognized Category Killer niches, and also TRS's Consistent Branding Format etc etc ......

And that theory is, in these two parts....

(a) Part A --is the Naomi Klein -- Death of the Brand theory.... where in a highly individualized 'rebel without a cause society'-- a lot of folk just do not give a damn, and are happy to buy non branded---"No Frills" toothpaste, shaving cream, disposable razors, shampoo, presents, toilet rolls, deodorant lollies,birthday cards, wrapping paper, band-aids, stationary,no frills dispirin and pain reliefs Pandaol dishwashing liquid etc etc-- and not prepared any more to pay the Premium to Smith Klein & Beecham or Lever & Rexona, J&J, Proctor & Gamble, etc, etc....--- for their heavilly Marked Up Brands backed up by expensive advertising and Packaging--- that has to be paid for by the consumer.

TRS ----allows the Consumer, to some extent, in these instances to by - pass that Cost and expense factored into the Branding .....

(b) Part B-- is the Funds who often feel they must allocate a percentage of thier fuds by mandate-- to the Category called Retail--have seen a lot of their Retail Stocks faves downgraded.....like Austin Group, Fantastic, Strathfield,Coles Myer, etc


And have a smallert Pool that includes stocks like DJS, WOW, NBL, JBH, JST and stocks like our The Reject Shop (TRS) meaning the fud money is also creating extra demand for a positon in the Stock....

Just some "rejected" food for thought...

Regards,

Robbo:)

patsy
16-03-2006, 08:11 PM
I'm a happy holder of TRS but believe that it has now approched fair value, if not gone beyond already.

Robbo - after having analysed TRS for quite some time, I'm not completely sure of your theory:

Your Part (A): I don't believe that Noami Klein's theory actually occurs in practice (remember she's a radical leftist so she's theorising on what she would like to happen, not what it does happen). There is an opposing theory to Klein's that was popularised by the "Popcorn Report", which states that we live in a time of small indulgences - exactly the opposite to TRS's business. TRS is a non-brand distributor BUT has become the master of a non-frill category, which obviously has very focused market segment. The non-frill market segment is quite small in relative terms but that's not to say it is not profitable - especially when a company like TRS dominates it. The non-brand theory does not exist, even the rebels without cause are displaying a brand as such... when was the last time you heard anyone saying "I've bought my black track pants at TRS" ??? The present society has been moving towards "what's hot and what's not", "what's cool and uncool"...

Your Part (B) - I am not sure if there is significant fund money in TRS. The stock is quite thinly traded and price manipulation can happen quite easily. I believe that TRS has started to be the target of buy & hold retail investors thus slowly drying up supply and increasing price consistently over time.

As you pointed out, TRS key is the "brains" that exist in their retailing skills, inventory management, and contained/targetted network growth.

My 2 cents.

OneUp
16-03-2006, 08:45 PM
quote:Originally posted by patsy

I'm a happy holder of TRS but believe that it has now approched fair value, if not gone beyond already.


Patsy, can you please explain why you think this?


quote:Originally posted by patsy
I believe that TRS has started to be the target of buy & hold retail investors thus slowly drying up supply and increasing price consistently over time.


A newsletter called Market Analysis (www.stockmarket.co.nz) recommended it last year, suspiciously soon after this thread was started (!). They have around 2000+ loyal subscribers, and also manage client money, and have almost certainly contributed to the steady march up.

tommy
16-03-2006, 09:05 PM
Hi fellow Rejectors,

TRS has a PE ratio of x16, which seems like a bargain compared to its peers considering its solid track record, steady growth rate and dividends.

The strength of TRS lies in its strict, low-cost business model which capitalizes on extensive use of technology. With the expansion of branches, it will allow TRS to reap the benefits of economies of scale to an even greater degree. Even if the retail sector faces a downturn, TRS will survive and outperform its peers simply because of this competitive advantage. Whether in boom or recession, TRS just has to keep on doing what it has been doing for years to keep us shareholders happy[:I] Boring indeed for traders, but an absolute gem for patient investors who can't be bothered watching the stock tickers every day!

OneUp
16-03-2006, 09:24 PM
Tommy, I agree with you that TRS is still definately a buy: a rare high growth company with low risk.

IMHO: there is no big risk factor for TRS.
1. It has many suppliers, many customers and many stores.
2. Enjoys very strong cashflows, allowing it to both pay a genrous dividend and continue to expand without needing to issue new shares and dilute our stake.
3. No debt
4. Competitive advantage.
5. Strong in all economic conditions (in recessions, people try to stretch their pennies further and will go to a Reject Shop rather than a higher prices store to stretch their pennies further; in booms as now, people have more spend anyway). This alone deserves a premium!
6. Still small - plenty of room to grow

No one kink can derail this train (like Safenet could do to Senetas; or Vodafone did to ENG when it went by the name Mobile Innovations). Maybe a better analogy would be a tank, TRS is near bullet proof!

TRS deserves a much higher PE than 16. At a PE of 30 I might agree with you Patsy, but currently more than happy to hold it nice and tight.

tommy
19-03-2006, 02:52 PM
http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,18515491%255E664,00.html

Small has big rewards
By ANTHONY BLACK, Your Money Editor
19mar06


INVESTORS should not overlook some of the small to medium-size companies in the Australian sharemarket, analysts say.

While the big market capitalisation stocks attract attention, the analysts say smaller companies are also rewarding investors by posting solid results.

They say there should be room in a balanced portfolio for good performing smaller companies despite the higher risk compared with bigger market caps.

Analyst Mike Kendall, of Goldman Sachs JB Were, says Select Harvests, an almond grower, has put on $4.64 a share in the past year.

He says first half-year net profit was up 32 per cent to $12.5 million on the previous corresponding period and sales were up 31 per cent to $115 million. It will pay investors a fully-franked dividend of 30c a share on April 3.

Mr Kendall says the well-managed company is set to benefit from possibly higher almond prices resulting from a frost cutting California's crop.

Mr Kendall says Select Harvest's market capitalisation (the number of shares multiplied by the latest share price) is about $565 million and rising with a higher share price.

In comparison, the market capitalisation of BHP Billiton, the world's biggest miner, is about $87.8 billion.

"Good performing smaller companies can make up to 20 per cent of a balanced portfolio," he says. "Any more than that means investors are exposing themselves to increasing risk."

Select Harvest's share price finished at $14.10 on Friday.

Mr Kendall says investors in smaller companies can be disadvantaged by a limited number of stock holders and shares, sometimes making it difficult to match what a seller wants and what a buyer is prepared to pay.

He says IT services provider Oakton's share price has doubled in the past year after its first-half net profit was up 58 per cent to $6.56 million on the previous corresponding period and sales rose 55 per cent to $37 million.

"Oakton continues to win new contracts and it offers a bright outlook," he says. "This Melbourne-based company should lift revenue as it expands to Sydney and Brisbane."

Oakton's share price closed at $3.10 on Friday.

Investors made gains if they bought and held Domino's Pizza Australia and New Zealand since listing in May last year.

Shares in the float were priced at $2.20 each and Domino finished at $3.81 on Friday.

MR KENDALL says Domino's half-year net profit rose 80.6 per cent to $6.5 million on the previous corresponding period and sales were up 42 per cent to $88 million.

He says Domino's offers a proved franchise model and the number of stores along the eastern seaboard rose from 387 to 415 between June and December last year. The company is aiming for 436 stores by June and its longer-term target is between 550 and 620 outlets.

"Some of these smaller companies offer real businesses, revenues and profits," Mr Kendall says.

But while investing in smaller companies can result in healthy gains, they often need more monitoring than the bigger players.

"Investors need to do their homework in order to identify which small companies offer the best prospects – I cannot stress that enough," Mr Kendall says.

He says investors should check the capital demands of a company.

"Quite often a company will go back to the market to raise more cash to fund its expansion plans or growth objectives," he says.

"Issuing more shares dilutes the value of existing stock."
[b]
Sharemarket analyst Michael Heffernan, of Austock, says The Reject Shop posted a good first half-year net profit of $8.65 million, a 20.4 per cent increase on the previous corresponding half.

That is reflected in its share price rising more than $2 in the past year to finish at $5.25 on Friday.

Mr Heffernan says The Reject Shop is shielded from any slowdown in consumer spending because the price of its products appeals to people with tight budgets.

HE SAYS reasonable margins o

Halebop
19-03-2006, 04:11 PM
More than a few are laughing all the way to the bank.

OneUp
19-03-2006, 10:27 PM
quote:Originally posted by OneUp

Fundamentals:
• TRS recently listed on the ASX at $1.80. Has been in an uptrend since that time, hitting a high of $2.75, but has since retraced to $2.60-ish.
• Market capitalization = circa $60 million
• Price/Earnings = 11; Price/Sales = 0.33; Yield = 6% (forecast), EBIT multiple of 7. These ratios indicate good value.

Future Outlook
• Forecast NPAT of $6.0-$6.2 million. Dividend at 60% of NPAT.


Hi AA, it was on an historic PE of 10.5 and a forward looking PE of a shade under 10. As it turned out, TRS beat its own forecasts by some way (which has become something of a good habit with this company!).

tommy
08-04-2006, 03:39 PM
http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,18743652%255E664,00.html

Salesman socks it to them

Fleur Leyden
08apr06


BARRY Saunders, the boss of discount variety chain The Reject Shop, did not come from a long line of retailers.

The closest blood ties Saunders can think of in retailing stem from the fact that his father and grandfather once ran milk bars.

But a lack of retail lineage didn't prevent the industry from finding him.

"Whenever I did anything else I was always interpreting it in terms of retail," explains Saunders.

"Even when I ran the Western Australian Turf Club, as far as I was concerned those tote windows were just checkouts."






Saunders plans to retire when his contract at The Reject Shop expires in 18 months.

As managing director since 2000, he helped navigate the company through a stock-exchange listing, increased its footprint to more than 100 stores and delivered consistent profit growth despite a sometimes vicious retail cycle.

The company's shares have grown to more than $5 from a $2 issue price.

Saunders is a hard man to crack, revealing little about his personal life.

He does say that he is married for a second time and has a 19-year-old who is studying arts at Melbourne Uni.

Whether his offspring is a son or a daughter is unclear and it just doesn't feel right to ask.

Saunders is similarly reticent about disclosing any details to do with his three children from a previous marriage.

He simply says: "One's a philosopher and the other two are in the computing industry."

Saunders began his career selling socks in the basement of the Myer emporium.

It was 1963 and he was on the first week of his induction program at the company.

Although in charge of a small market research unit, he still had to prove he could make a sale.

"I can recall we used to look at the cash register every hour and if we were falling behind the day's budget we'd throw another sock in," says Saunders.

"So five (pairs of socks) for 10 shillings became six for 10 shillings.

"I guess I was impressed at that time about working intensely on the hour-to-hour, day-to-day of retailing but at the same time developing a strategic sense of the bigger picture that came from running a market research unit."

Saunders describes the Myer emporium -- which later merged with G J Coles & Co. to form Coles Myer -- as an environment rich in retail experience.

"When I went into Myer it was absolutely the training ground for all young fellers who wanted to get into retail and there were so many great teachers," says Saunders.

He describes (former Myer chief executive) Ken Steele as "rigorous and demanding"; (former Myer executive) Tony Roberts, for whom he later worked for at Target, as "relentlessly logical"; and (former Myer chief executive) Keith Rosenhain as "a more sympathetic character".

"There was a whole bunch of people who had a lot of self-belief but had some good reasons for it," says Saunders.

"And it's a bit sad to see some of the pain that the organisation is going through at the moment." Saunders, along with most in the retail industry, closely watched last month's $1.4 billion sale of Myer to a consortium led by private equity firm Newbridge Capital.

Asked whether a private equity owner, rather than a trade buyer, was a good outcome, Saunders says: "Well, I think they (Newbridge Capital) would say they can buy it (retail experience).

"I guess if they look hard enough and in the right places they'll be successful.

"When you do go off the path a bit it can be a bit of a hunt to find the right sort of people to get you back on the track." He adds that Myer's new management will need to overcome the "inherent expensiveness" of the department-store format if they are to succeed.

"I think that the department store brief is probably the hardest one in retailing and I've got a lot of admiration for those who are . . . making a pretty good fist of it," says a diplomatic Saunders. "I'm a lot more comfortable in our end of t

tommy
11-04-2006, 02:27 PM
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/The-Reject-Shop-opens-first-WA-shop/2006/04/11/1144521308091.html


The Reject Shop opens first WA shop


April 11, 2006 - 11:14AM

Discount chain The Reject Shop Ltd will open its first store in Western Australia in June with plans to have up to eight stores operating there within three years.

The Reject Shop managing director Barry Saunders said the store will be located in Perth's city centre with another store to open in Booragoon in the southern suburbs.

"Western Australia is now our number one expansion priority with plans to create a network of up to 20 stores in the long-term," Mr Saunders said.

"Our decision to expand into this dynamic market follows extensive internal planning and research over a three year period, allowing us to secure the optimum store locations."

He believes the West Australian consumers will respond well to the Reject Shop format and its range of low priced everyday needs and discount variety items.

Mr Saunders said it will recruit local people to manage and operate the stores with a goal of creating 500 full time jobs in the long term.

Shares in The Reject Shop improved five cents to $5.70 by 1100 AEST Tuesday.

tommy
12-04-2006, 02:13 PM
http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,18789074%255E664,00.html

Reject Shop in WA push

12apr06

DISCOUNT variety chain The Reject Shop says it is waiting for the crucial Easter trading period to pass before it can assess its first-half performance.

The company yesterday announced its first foothold in Western Australia, with plans to open a Perth city store in June. A second store in the Perth suburb of Booragoon will follow.

The company's chief executive Barry Saunders said store growth in all states was important, however, the WA market headed the list.

Between six and eight WA stores are earmarked in the next three years, with the company's presence in the state expanding to between 15 and 20 stores in the long term.

"Western Australia is our number one expansion priority with plans to create a network of up to 20 stores in the long-term," Mr Saunders said.






The long-term expansion in the state is expected to cost $5 million.

Mr Saunders said the company, which has 113 stores around the country, was likely to boast a total of 150 stores within three years. He said this would drive future profits.

"The real importance of the (store expansion) is what it does to profits, two, three, four years out, rather than . . . in the immediate 12 months."

He added that The Reject Shop was trading "reasonably well" but that its first-half performance would be assessed once Easter trading could be accounted for.

"(Easter is) an important spike in the year -- it's the second-biggest spike after Christmas trade," he said.

"So you never quite can say we are doing well or not doing so well until you have got through the March and April period."

Shares in The Reject Shop closed 5 stronger at $5.70.

tommy
12-04-2006, 04:10 PM
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/060412/15/400kz.html

Wednesday April 12, 11:12 AM

INTERVIEW: Australia's Reject Shop Rollout On Track

By Susan Murdoch
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--The managing director of Australian discount retailer The Reject Shop Ltd. (TRS.AU) says its store rollout is on track.

Barry Saunders said the group will have 115 stores by June and plans to open its first outlet in Perth, Western Australia. It is aiming for 125 stores by the 2007 financial year end.

The Reject Shop is expected to face tougher competition following the A$200 million merger last December of rival outlets Chickenfeed, Crazy Clarks, Go-Lo and Warehouse to create the country's largest discount variety retailer.

New Zealand's Warehouse Group Ltd. (WHS.NZ) and Australia's Miller's Retail Ltd. (MRL.AU) offloaded the underperforming stores to private equity investors Catalyst Investment Managers and CHAMP Private Equity. The new owners will benefit from increased buying power as they consolidate the 450-store portfolio.

However, Saunders says it's not yet clear whether there will be pressure on margins as the new outfit unfolds.

"They're involved in some store rationalization, so it might just be that their work is to make what they've got operate a bit more efficiently in fewer locations," Saunders told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview Tuesday.

"It's really too early to comment..other than to say we've seen nothing adverse impacting our business so far," he added.

The Reject Shop has the capacity to pick up sites that might become available provided the stores meet its criteria, he said.

In February, the discount variety store operator increased its full year profit forecast by at least 6.7% to a range of A$8 million to A$8.2 million.

Saunders said he had "no bad news" to report but it was difficult to gauge trading conditions for the second half until after the Easter period.

The full year outlook implies a loss in the traditionally weaker second half, which will be weighed down by increased capital expenditure. The company is opening a new distribution center in Melbourne.

The group was in strong position to withstand higher petrol prices, he said.

"Our stores have been going comparatively well, there's been no adverse affect," Saunders said.

"It would seem that no-one's immune from big trends, but in as much as they impact people, we maybe get a moderated affect," he said, adding consumers "tend to turn to us a little more" when petrol prices are higher.

A recent rise in world oil prices is expected to flow through to Australian fuel prices, putting pressure on consumer purse strings.

The former head of discount retailers Big W and Target said his contract expires in June next year when he will retire. He said the board had a couple of internal successors in mind but an external search for candidates will also begin at the end of this year.

At 0310 GMT Wednesday, the company's shares were flat at A$5.75 giving it a market capitalization of A$144 million. The stock touched a record high of A$5.75 Tuesday.

tommy
05-05-2006, 03:34 PM
TRS seems to have started to lose momentum after interest rate rise... is the retail sector out of favor now? At times like this when petrol prices are high and interest rate increases, I would have thought that a company like TRS would be in a better position to deal with the impact of changes in consumer spending patterns...

But the market does not seem to agree with me, buy side is getting thin.

PE ratio of 17 looks very reasonable to me.

I wanna pick up more on the cheap, would love to accumulate more below $5[:p]

tommy
31-05-2006, 01:51 PM
I have been topping up TRS lately in anticipation of good results for this fiscal year... cannot believe it's ready to hit the $6 mark despite the negative market sentiment[:0]

Sell side very thin (who would want to REJECT this stock?) but still reasonably priced at PE of 18, IMHO[:I]

OneUp
31-05-2006, 02:15 PM
Hi Tommy,
yep it's relentless. No one wants to sell this gem and no wonder.

If a recession is on its way (thanks to higher interest rates) this is the kind of recession-proof stock that investors will flock to.

If not it will keep on churning out stellar results.

Whatever happens, I will sleep well at night with Reject Shop shares tucked firmly under my pillow (25% of the portfolio). Still have yet to sell even a single share (nearly did in the rout last week to finance some buys, but regained my senses in the nick of time ;))

tommy
31-05-2006, 02:35 PM
Hi oneup,

Good on you for holding on to TRS!

Boring stock for traders but a no-brainer winner for lazy investors like me;) TRS accounts for about 30% of my portfolio now, and quite happy with that level of exposure (same for GBT)...

Getting good sleep is important at turbulent times like this:)

tommy
31-05-2006, 02:49 PM
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/who-cares-about-high-fuel-prices/2006/05/30/1148956345082.html


Who cares about high fuel prices?

Jessica Irvine
May 31, 2006
Related coverage


SHOPPERS have defied record-busting petrol prices to splurge on winter coats, boots and toys with a fervour not seen since the housing boom.

Raising fears the Reserve Bank may again raise interest rates this year, annual growth in retail sales has rebounded to 7.4 per cent.

Figures from the Bureau of Statistics show consumers are once again lashing out on shoes and clothes, with sales up 2.7 per cent in April compared to March. Sales of recreational goods were up 2 per cent and retail sales as a whole 1.4 per cent.

The spending spree comes despite petrol prices jumping more than 12c a litre in the month.

An equities economist with CommSec, Andrew Mitchell, said the rebound was "astonishing" given escalating bowser prices.

"The rise in retail spending indicates Australians have successfully altered their behaviour to avoid absorbing the full impact of soaring petrol prices," he said.

This had been achieved by shifting to public transport and cars that were more fuel-efficient, he said

An unseasonably warm March was also thought to have boosted the number as people delayed buying woollen coats until April.

Department store sales surged 1.5 per cent for April as indicated by last week's strong sales reports from David Jones and Myer.

Proving that when the going gets tough, the tough get spending, Victoria was at the forefront of the spending splurge, up 2.7 per cent.

NSW households put on a reasonable showing, spending 1.1 per cent more than in the previous month.

A senior economist at National Australia Bank, David de Garis, warned the shameless spending spree could attract unwanted attention from the Reserve Bank, which could raise rates as soon as August to tamp inflation.

"These data very much keep the RBA in play as far as monetary policy is concerned," Mr de Garis warned.

But with the latest interest rate rise yet to hit, some warned the consumer resurgence could be short lived.

"Australian households are now very sensitive to interest rate changes because they are carrying historically high amounts of debt," Mr Mitchell said.

Separate figures showed the NSW economy was approaching crunch point as approvals of new homes and units teetered near two-decade lows.

Building approvals have tumbled 23 per cent in the past year, to 2349 a month.

The chief economist at Challenger Finance, Ron Woods, said the number of NSW approvals was "frighteningly low" given the housing demands of a growing population.

"Back in 1983, there were about 6 dwelling units approved per 10,000 people in NSW," he said. "Today there are just over half as few approved, [at] 3.4 flats and houses per 10,000 people."

tommy
31-05-2006, 03:12 PM
quote:Originally posted by cujodog

I can't believe people actually own shares in this dog.


Cujodog,

Can you pick a share that's not a dog and outperforms TRS? This is a multibagger, look at the charts and read this thread from the beginning to work out when we bought into this stock[:I]

P.S. Everyone's a winner at The Reject Shop[:p]

OneUp
31-05-2006, 03:18 PM
It's official: Reject Shop over $6 [:p].

Yeah cujo, you're right mate, we're real mugs holding this lemon ;).

PS: Tommy, yeah TRS is pretty boring for traders, because they thrive on volatility and TRS pretty much only goes one way: up!

Halebop
31-05-2006, 03:58 PM
quote:Originally posted by cujodog

I'll be the one laughing when this one goes bust.


Yes you will Cujo! Perhaps you'd like to clarify why you think the company will go bust?

OneUp
31-05-2006, 06:59 PM
quote:Originally posted by cujodog

What a *ucking joke this share is - how can the price be that high - what's the world coming too - forgive me while I throw up


Cujo, this first post was made back in September last year. Since then TRS has climbed from $3.74 to $6.00. Maybe instead of bagging it you should be buying it.

I look forward to a company with no debt , strong cashflows, many customers and suppliers going bust over the next 12 months. There's a first for everything I guess.

Heavy Metal
31-05-2006, 11:13 PM
TRS's offerings and growth profile reminds me of WHS. Also reminds me of WHS's shareprice rise and rise for several years. Then WHS grew too big, acquired the wrong sort of stores in Oz, lost focus and the shareprice has dropped ever since. If TRS starts to veer from its currently successful positioning in the market (and in the big retail malls) then it's probably time to sell. Until then enjoy the continuing uptrend.

Halebop
01-06-2006, 10:36 AM
quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Hope you've got a strong heart[}:)]


I trust the irony of this statement isn't lost on you?

Bobbyvee
01-06-2006, 06:52 PM
quote:Originally posted by cujodog

I can't believe people actually own shares in this dog.


Sorry Cujodog but I find comments like this, which are totally unsubstantiated, less than constructive. My observation is that The Reject Shop has a good business model; shops (particularly check-outs) that are always busy; very experienced management and performance which exceeds prospectus forecasts. Not surprisingly on account of all the above the share price reacts very positively. Please explain why you think it is a "dog" as this might help your fellow sharemarket investors.

soulman
04-06-2006, 02:33 AM
I see TRS going up in anticipation of their first few stores in WA. One of the store is opening in WA largest shopping centre very soon (about a few weeks from now).

If their products are selling well in the eastern states, then WA is a real sleeper and I think, judging from their share price, it has already factor in a sales feast in the WA market. I do think their SP is running ahead too quick but with a low volume stock, I wouldn't be suprised at $6.50 to $7 in the near term.

tommy
13-06-2006, 11:40 AM
http://www.theage.com.au/news/Business/The-Reject-Shop-goes-has-tripled-in-size/2006/06/12/1149964450817.html

The Reject Shop goes has tripled in size

June 12, 2006 - 1:09PM

Since listing on the Australian Stock Exchange two years ago discount retailer The Reject Shop has weathered the economic ups and down to almost triple in size.

Its share price now trades around $6, after starting at $2 on June 1, 2004, and it's about to open its first store in Perth as it targets at nation-wide store count of 113 by the end of July.

The Reject Shop got off to an ideal beginning thanks to a federal government policy to start handing out grants to families with newborn babies in the same month it became a public company.

But it has also weathered tough times marked by the sustained high petrol prices which have tempered consumer spending habits.

The Reject Shop managing director Barry Saunders says that because the company operates at the lower priced end of the retail sector, its customers are often looking for bargains.

"Our fundamental purpose is to help people save money and when things look tough they look for alternatives," Mr Saunders said.

For two dollars, shoppers can choose from a wide array of items including a basic lolly bag, envelopes, pencils, socks, underwear, kitchen plates and paper goods.

The Myer-trained Mr Saunders, who once headed up the Woolworths Big W variety store chain, has guided the downmarket store since its listing and plans to be around for another 18 months before handing over the reins.

Retail analyst David Spry said that while the company's succession planning is not transparent, executives within the business have been ingrained in the Woolworths-like culture that prevails.

"Barry Saunders had a good track record at Woolies and could have been in the top job there," Mr Spry said.

"They have a good Woolworths culture entrenched in the management.

"They would have been grooming a few people for the top job and all would be quite capable of taking the role."

The Reject Shop's buying team, which has been beefed up to 27 from 17 two years ago, regularly heads off to China and trade fairs around the world in search of products with the necessary, and cheap, 'wow' factor.

A few years ago silicon pads that fitted into bras were best sellers while mini roulette wheels were big last year.

But it's foot traffic builders like as toothpaste, beauty products and wooden coat hangers that helps drive The Reject Shop's fortunes.

"It's very much a stock that does well when times are tough, but it also has appeal when times are not so tough because it stocks items for every day use at very attractive prices," Mr Spry said.

The Reject Shop also operates in a space where competition is thin on the ground - it ranks below businesses like Kmart, Big W or Target.

It has seen off a challenge from New Zealand discount department store group The Warehouse and also beaten a foray by Miller's Retail into the discount market through its underperforming variety discount stores Go-Lo and Crazy Clark's.

"They have a had a free kick with lame duck competitors - The Warehouse was a disaster and Miller's didn't understand this brand of retailing," Mr Spry said.

He said The Reject Shop is focussing on low risk expansion through organic growth.

"The stores don't cost a lot to set up, they don't have to make acquisitions to grow," Mr Spry said.

The Reject Shop is forecasting a 6.5 per cent lift in annual net profit for 2005/06, from $7.1 million last year.

© 2006 AAP

tommy
13-06-2006, 03:06 PM
quote:Originally posted by cujodog

I laugh everytime I see someone post something about the Reject Shop. It's the best one-liner I have ever heard!


Cujodog,

Yup, I'm laughing having tripled my money too;) Hope you are making more money than I am in this bleeding market, because I'm certainly having a great ride[}:)]

soulman
15-06-2006, 03:33 AM
I just pay a visit to the Reject Shop that just opened in WA.

Busy as they are but they are just like Miller's Crazy Clark and Go-lo shop and Red Dot stores. I guess with Millers taking a tumble about a year ago, the same could happen to TRS. Any TRS will continue to rise if their profits keeps going up and dividends follow suits.

OneUp
15-06-2006, 06:52 AM
quote:Originally posted by soulman

I just pay a visit to the Reject Shop that just opened in WA.

Busy as they are but they are just like Miller's Crazy Clark and Go-lo shop and Red Dot stores. I guess with Millers taking a tumble about a year ago, the same could happen to TRS. Any TRS will continue to rise if their profits keeps going up and dividends follow suits.


Last time I was in Oz I paid a visit to Crazy Clarks. There was not one other customer in it. Reject Shops by all accounts are very busy. Why? Don't talk yourself out of the Aussie version of Walmart, many years of impressive profit and share price appreciation to come. Note how TRS has weathered the recent market battering beautifully, because (as has been argued several times before on this thread) it is a winner in all economic conditions. This alone deserves a large PE premium - and this is slowly being recognised by analysts and institutional investors (including both Catango MicroCap and WAM Capital, who have excellent track records) according to Tommy's article.

tommy
15-06-2006, 08:55 PM
http://www.theadvertiser.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,19451700%255E5003680,00.html

Reject Shop very desirable to investors
JEFF TURNBULL
13jun06


SINCE listing on the Australian Stock Exchange two years ago, discount retailer The Reject Shop has weathered the economic ups and down to almost triple in size.

Its share price is now around $6, from $2 on June 1, 2004, and it's about to open its first store in Perth as it seeks a nationwide store count of 113 by July 31.

The Reject Shop got off to an ideal start thanks to a Federal Government policy to begin giving grants to families with newborn babies in the same month it became a public company.

However, it also has weathered the sustained high petrol prices which have tempered consumer spending habits.

Managing director Barry Saunders says that because the firm operates at the lower-priced end of the retail sector, customers are often looking for bargains.

Retail analyst David Spry said that while the company's succession planning is not transparent, its executives have been ingrained in the Woolworths-like culture that prevails. "Barry Saunders had a good track record at Woolies and could have been in the top job there," he said.

Heavy Metal
15-06-2006, 09:22 PM
quote:Originally posted by OneUp

Don't talk yourself out of the Aussie version of Walmart, many years of impressive profit and share price appreciation to come.


TRS might a good recession proof company but comparing TRS to Walmart is seriously stretching reality. Reminds me of similar future comparisons between WHS and Walmart a few years ago by some overexcited investors - which have never eventuated.

OneUp
15-06-2006, 09:45 PM
Heavy Metal: you misinterpret.

I'm not saying TRS will be the "next Walmart", but that TRS has a similar modus operandi to Walmart (but customized for Oz).

The main difference between The Warehouse and Walmart was always that Walmart started in one US state and expanded across 50 and now overseas.When The Warehouse listed it was pretty close to already having saturated the NZ market. TRS is a long way from saturating Aussie, it can probbably increase store numbers 200% from here.

tommy
15-06-2006, 10:02 PM
Hi Oneup, HM and other Rejectors,

What is most appealing about TRS is the current market cap of 150 million at a PE ratio of 18, which is still undervalued in my opinion. Considering its track record, it deserves a PE of at least 20, despite the sector in which it operates (retail).

The only foreseeable potential risk factor at TRS is what will happen after Barry Saunders leaves the management team.

He has been an excellent leader and helped TRS float and grow smoothly in a tough, competitive environment. I would like to see him extend his tenure again but I suppose that won't happen again... I just hope his successor will continue adopting the strict business model Mr. Saunders has maintained over the years. I would prefer someone in the existing management team take over his position rather than some outsider being headhunted.

tommy
13-07-2006, 03:30 AM
http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/threat-to-coles-woolies/2006/07/12/1152637740676.html


Threat to Coles, Woolies

July 13, 2006

QUESTIONS have been raised about future earnings from Woolworths and Coles Myer's discount department stores due to the rise of specialty retailers that are stealing market share.

Citigroup has cut its rating on Coles Myer to sell, citing the threat to earnings at Kmart and Target — which contribute 30 per cent of total earnings — from so-called "mini-majors" such as JB Hi- Fi, Priceline, The Reject Shop, Go Lo, Bunnings and Best & Less.

"These mini-majors, or large-format specialties, are opening new stores and competing more aggressively on price," said Citigroup's Craig Woolford, questioning if discount stores had become a "dinosaur". "The retailers most at risk are Kmart and Big W, which have close to 60 per cent of their product in hard-good categories where competition is fierce," he said.

CDs, DVDs, video games, toys, stationery, books and hardware are the key items. Sales at the key mini-majors have grown on average by 38 per cent in the past three years, led by JB HiFi at nearly 180 per cent.

Coles Myer's shares fell 27¢ to $11.72 yesterday. Woolworths gained 4¢ to $20.08.

tommy
14-07-2006, 03:42 PM
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/instore-commotion/2006/07/14/1152637835679.html

Elderly driver crashes into shoppers
Jano Gibson
July 14, 2006 - 12:20PM


An elderly man whose car crashed through the glass doors of a shopping centre and smashed into several shoppers may have fallen ill at the wheel.

The car, driven by an 83-year-old man, went into the Stockland Forster shopping centre at about 4pm [AEST] yesterday, knocking over a number of shoppers, police said.

"It was crazy. The car was through the window [of] The Reject Shop," Baker's Delight employee, Scott Keegan, told smh.com.au.

"The car was pretty smashed up the front end. Both shop front windows were all smashed through. The driver and the female passenger were fairly injured [and] there was a few [shoppers] lying on the ground," the 19-year-old said.

The Reject Shop general manager of retail operations, Ron Jones, said about $50,000 damage had been caused by the accident.

"What appears to have happened is an unfortunate accident with an elderly gentleman being taken ill at the wheel of the car and lost control of the vehicle and drove into the store via the front doors," Mr Jones said.

"Before he came to a stop, he collided with four customers."

"They were hit and whether they fell or flew I think it happened too fast for anybody to give a good account of it. Obviously the people were bowled over."

Mr Jones said his staff were shocked by the accident.

"They obviously were shocked. Our first concern was for the people who were injured in our store and the well being of team members."

He praised the resourcefulness of some customers, including a nurse, who helped assist the injured.

A police spokesman said the cause of the accident was still being investigated but one area of inquiry would be that the man had indeed fallen ill at the wheel.

A 51-year-old woman was seriously injured and was in a stable condition at Newcastle's John Hunter Hospital. Her six-year-old son suffered a laceration to his face.

A 73-year-old woman suffered minor injuries and a 64-year-old man sustained lower leg injuries. They were treated in Manning Base Hospital and subsequently released.

The driver of the car was taken by ambulance to Manning Base Hospital suffering facial fractures.

His 81-year-old wife, who was travelling in the front passengers seat, was also treated in hospital for lacerations and possible fractures.

patsy
20-07-2006, 12:00 PM
For those who follow this little gem... if you've been keeping daily track of sp over the past few weeks, it's been good to see that TRS has been completely oblivious of the manic-depressive nature of the ASX and global markets - steady she goes (up)...

OneUp
31-07-2006, 07:13 PM
Any particular reason for the jump from $6 to $6.60ish? Just managed funds buying?

tommy
01-08-2006, 05:59 PM
Sold out of TRS to collect profits, purely to reorganize my portfolio... still love the company but I think the recent rise is a bit too much for me, I wanted to see the gains in cash not in paper profits[}:)]

Read the following article because this is gonna shake the retail industry big time. Will it TRS be a potential target? Mmm, interesting times!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/07/30/cnwalmart30.xml

Wal-Mart goes window shopping Down Under
By James Hall
(Filed: 30/07/2006)

Wal-Mart, the world's biggest retailer, which last week pulled out of the German market, is believed to be close to making its first acquisition in Australia.

Executives from Wal-Mart, which is based in Bentonville, Arkansas, are known to have visited Australia recently to look at possible targets. Coles Myer, the supermarket retailer, and Woolworths, its larger rival, have been identified as likely candidates.

"Wal-Mart has been looking at Australia closely. After the German situation it will be looking to do a deal very quickly," said an executive close to Wal-Mart.

The Australian retail sector is going through radical change. Coles Myer, which sold its Myer department store business earlier this year, will tomorrow announce wide-ranging restructuring plans in a bid to catch up with Woolworths, which is growing sales and market share at a faster rate. Plans are likely to include new store formats and a name change.

Analysts believe that the upheaval could present Wal-Mart with the perfect opportunity to pounce. Australian consumers are attuned to American tastes and have similar shopping habits, something that Wal-Mart found not to be the case in Germany.

Last week Wal-Mart, led by Lee Scott, announced the sale of its 85 German outlets to Metro, a rival operator. The withdrawal will lead to Wal-Mart making a $1bn (£535m) pre-tax loss in the second quarter of its current financial year.

A Wal-Mart spokeswoman declined to comment. Some executives close to Wal-Mart suggested that any deal was some time off.

OneUp
01-08-2006, 08:03 PM
Hi Tommy, thanks for the article.

I'm guessing there's some speculation that TRS might be in play with Wal-Mart? Reject Shop would seem to be a bit small for them (in terms of store size). Can't say I like the idea of TRS, an imitator of Wal-Mart, facing off against the real thing.

Admittedly have sold down my stake a bit of late. Not an easy thing to do, after it has been so kind.

tommy
01-08-2006, 08:17 PM
quote:Originally posted by OneUp

Hi Tommy, thanks for the article.

I'm guessing there's some speculation that TRS might be in play with Wal-Mart? Reject Shop would seem to be a bit small for them (in terms of store size). Can't say I like the idea of TRS, an imitator of Wal-Mart, facing off against the real thing.

Admittedly have sold down my stake a bit of late. Not an easy thing to do, after it has been so kind.
]

Hi Oneup,

Yes it has been a painfully difficult decision for me to sell off TRS too because it has been such an incredible ride, literally bullet-proof against market volatility[8D]

Consistent price increase of late seems to have already factored in the full-year results...

If Walmart entered Australia, TRS, Kmart, Target, BigW will face a tsunami wave... its sheer size is just way too much for any aussie retailer to compete against, considering its enormous buying power and its cost structure streamlined by economies of scale.

I also think TRS is a bit too small for Walmart to take over, but who knows... I think TRS is still a short term buy but in medium/long run I'm not so sure.

Good luck to holders, I still love TRS's business model but I decided to stay out of the retail industry for a while to wait and see how the Walmart invasion unfolds.

OneUp
15-08-2006, 04:34 PM
Conference call coming up tomorrow. Will listen in and report anything of interest. (Which should include another bumper profit for the year just past and positive outlook for the Xmas season [:p]).

OneUp
16-08-2006, 04:15 PM
What a terrific result. $9.1m NPAT. Even better than I dared hope. This is all organic growth. No acquisitions. And a 17.5c special dividend - despite all the capital expenditure they've made in the new distribution centre.

$19.1m operating cashflows. Investing cashflows ($11.4m) were abnormally high because of investment in a new distribution centre.

Look forward to a bumper Xmas season and another record result.

Starting to regret selling 1/3 a few weeks ago.

tommy
16-08-2006, 08:42 PM
Hi Oneup,

Yeah, stellar results by magnificent management, congrats to those who continued to hold... I sold out too early obviously, I wasn't expecting such growth!! Considering that the board will change next year, I hope the transition will be smooth because TRS has been such a disciplined business since the float.

Love the business model and management, will re-enter on any price weakness!

OneUp
16-08-2006, 08:55 PM
Hi Tommy, one thing is for sure: I won't be the one selling to you ;). One might expect further insto buying over the next month as this result is digested, so it's difficult to see much weakness.

Historic PE 20 and no debt. Good to see management leveraging up the under-geared balance sheet to make special dividends/capital returns.

20% growth in FY07, which TRS should manage easily, will see a forward PE of 16. Are we looking at $10 within the year? It's not difficult to see TRS trading at a premium PE given it's strong track record, strong management and recession-proof business.

OneUp
17-08-2006, 01:01 AM
One other thing:

FY07 NPAT forecast $10.7-10.9m. TRS has a tendency to shatter its own forecasts, so I'll call it $12.0m. Which puts TRS at a forward PE of 15.0. A lot better value than a number of other growth companies out there. Could justify a PE of 25. $10 within a year, I reckon.

OneUp
17-08-2006, 03:27 PM
Just bought back the TRS I sold a few weeks ago + 10% cost [B)]. Are you back in, Tommy?

I think Lynch mentioned he often regretted selling superior companies, even if they got a little overvalued, because they just kept on keeping on.

tommy
17-08-2006, 03:44 PM
Hi oneup,

Yup, but only bought back 10k this morning because timing-wise, buying
after a good announcement is a normally against my rules... and all my TRS funds had gone into EMI[:I]
Will build up my TRS holdings in the event of any violatility though. $6.50 would be a nice bargain...

In the meantime, here is a TRS-related article:

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/retailers-flout-warning-of-consumer-caution/2006/08/16/1155407883414.html

Retailers flout warning of consumer caution

Rebecca Urban
August 17, 2006

IF RETAIL bosses are feeling jittery about the outlook for consumer spending, they are not showing it. Yet.

Fresh from reporting solid annual profits, The Reject Shop, JB Hi-Fi and clothing store Noni-B have braved speculation that shoppers will tighten their purse strings in response to the rising cost of living, by tipping favourable pre-Christmas trading conditions and continued earnings growth.

All three companies claim to be well positioned to overcome any negative impact that rising fuel prices or further interest rate rises might have on business.

The Reject Shop, a discount variety outlet, yesterday forecast its profit would rise by as much as 20 per cent next year.

The bullish sentiments have echoed those of top-end department store David Jones, which this week reported a big jump in sales, and forecast earnings to grow between 5 per cent and 10 per cent in each of the 2007 and 2008 financial years.

Commentary on the outlook for consumer spending will be expected from Coles Myer chief John Fletcher today, when the nation's largest department store reports its annual results.

The group recently confirmed it was on track for a $785 million profit. Its shares have rallied more than 5 per cent to $11.70 this week.

The Reject Shop's share price jumped 7 per cent to a record high of $7 yesterday, after the company announced a special dividend of 7.5¢a share in addition to its final dividend of 10¢ a share, to be paid to shareholders on September 1.

The increased payout follows a 38 per cent jump in profit to $9.1 million for the financial year.

Managing director Barry Saunders said discount retailers were protected but not immune from economic influences, and it was possible that any weakening consumer sentiment could broaden the store's clientele.

"Market research is showing that it's the well-off as well as the less well-off that are supporting our stores," he said. "We've said for some time that it's those who need and want to save money who come to us. And that's a broad spectrum of society."

The Reject Shop has forecast earnings to rise this year to as much as $10.9 million.

Sales of large-screen plasma televisions helped push JB Hi-Fi's full-year profit to a record $25.8 million. However, the result was slightly lower than the market's forecast and the shares slipped 11¢ to $4.68.

Chief executive Richard Uechtritz said he was confident the company could continue to increase its earnings, in spite of the challenging conditions.

"It's not good to hear stories about the possibility of interest rate rises so close to Christmas, but there's other factors such as the tax cuts to consider," he said. "If people are holding back on their spending now, hopefully by Christmas they will have the dollars in their pockets."

Mr Uechtritz expects CDs, DVDs, portable music players and computer games to drive pre-Christmas sales.

Women's fashion house Noni-B reported its fifth consecutive year of earnings growth, up 24 per cent to $8.2 million. However, it offered limited guidance for this financial year and shares closed 7¢ lower at $3.85.


_____________
http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/confidence-plunges-as-petrol-and-interest-hit-consumers/2006/08/16/1155407883423.html


Confidence plunges as petrol and interest hit consumers

Leon Gettler
August 17, 2006
Latest related coverage

THE gap between consumer confidence and spending has widened, with a leading index showing consumer sentiment plunging a

tommy
17-08-2006, 06:59 PM
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,20148835-951,00.html

Bonanza year for Reject shop

By AAP reporter

August 16, 2006 05:00pm
Article from: NEWS.com.au

Font size: + -

Send this article: Print Email

DISCOUNT store The Reject Shop defied interest rate hikes and fuel prices to post a 39 per cent increase in annual net profit today.
Investors liked the result and pushed The Reject Shop shares to record levels.

Underlining the strong 2005/06, The Reject Shop for the first time recorded a profit for the second half - of $400,000 - in what has traditionally been a quiet period for the retailer.

The discount chain store, with 114 stores throughout Australia, including WA, recorded a 38.7 per cent lift in net profit to $9.1 million for the year.

Sales grew 16.8 per cent to $237.2 million for the 12 months to June 25, 2006.

Managing director Barry Saunders said he expects net profit for the current financial year to rise to between $10.7 million and $10.9 million.

He said that while The Reject Shop was not immune to changing economic conditions, when times were tough people headed into his shops looking for bargains on "everyday need'' products such as toiletry goods, batteries and snack foods.

He said the latest market research showed it was the well-off, along with the less well-off, who were shopping at The Reject Shop.

The Melbourne-based company plans to open 15 new stores this year after opening 14 stores last year, including its first outlet in WA.

Shares closed 36 cents higher at $7.

robbo
18-08-2006, 12:58 PM
The Reject Shop (TRS)

Continue to love this company (TRS) and suuport this great organization..

Well Done all TRS holders. :)[:p]

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

steve fleming
19-08-2006, 08:58 AM
quote:Originally posted by davidrob

The Reject Shop (TRS)

Continue to love this company (TRS) and suuport this great organization..

Well Done all TRS holders. :)[:p]

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)


Hi Robbo totally agree...and congratulations Oneup - TRS has proved to be an outstanding investment...can't see any reason why it won't continue to head towards $10

TRS seems to have developed a reputation and brand that makes it the automatic choice to go to at that end of the market.

Everytime i go past a TRS store i think of Oneup's analysis and how i should have got into TRS when he first started the thread!

OneUp
22-08-2006, 11:47 PM
quote:Originally posted by steve fleming
Everytime i go past a TRS store i think of Oneup's analysis and how i should have got into TRS when he first started the thread!


Cheers Steve. I feel the same way about SSI, but about x10. Going to China tomorrow so will have a look out for SSI gaming products and their general popularity.

steve fleming
23-08-2006, 09:58 PM
quote:Originally posted by OneUp


quote:Originally posted by steve fleming
Everytime i go past a TRS store i think of Oneup's analysis and how i should have got into TRS when he first started the thread!


Cheers Steve. I feel the same way about SSI, but about x10. Going to China tomorrow so will have a look out for SSI gaming products and their general popularity.


Enjoy your time in China, Oneup. Look forward to hearing if you can spot any SSI products in your travels!

OneUp
22-09-2006, 02:58 AM
Hi Steve,
China is a weird and wonderful land. Ok, leave out the wonderful part.

Although casinos are officially banned in China (the Government appears very concerned at the potential harmful affects of gambling on the people, on social stability, and hence the CCP's grip on power), gambling in homes and even on the street is very common (I saw street gambling myself. Apparently the reason they did this was to save on power costs.) Gambling with family and friends is tolerated by the government because (a) it is thought to have relatively little egative social consequences and (b) it would be nearly impossible to prevent even if the CCP disapproved.

In my 4 weeks in China, I came across only one electronic gaming parlour (in Nanjing, 4 hours by train from Shanghai), not sure if it was affiliated with SSI. Anyway, it was about 30% full at 7pm in the evening.

I took the opportunity to ask some locals whether the concept of electronic gaming would take off. The reply was that it would depend on the odds and the prizes; because they could already gamble low amounts with friends or in cafes. One drawback of electronic gaming is that you don't get the social interaction associated with the current Chinese way of gambling. Another comment from a Chinese businessman I met was that if too many negative social effects were encountered, the CCP would not hesitate to jump in (the CCP wqould also want quite a large share of any profits if the gaming companies were allowed to continue operating).

OneUp
22-09-2006, 03:01 AM
Oh yeah, I see TRS up another 10% in the last month. Easily covered the cost of my holiday!

OneUp
26-09-2006, 02:34 AM
TRS has now burst through the $8.00 per share barrier and the $200 milion market cap milestone.

Close reading of the annual report suggests this half will be a cracker. After that, though (come March), could be time to take profits around $10/share?

robbo
26-09-2006, 12:41 PM
The Reject Shop. (TRS)

Continues to be a Long Term Hold for myself too One Up !! :)[:p]

(TRS) Has been a beautiful example of "Set and Forget" type share with magnificent --- "year on year"-- compounding ....value plus.... "out performance".

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

OneUp
06-10-2006, 01:21 PM
TRS being sold off rather heavily at the moment...to $7.40.

Any ideas why? I'm guessing some profit taking.

Retail sales look to be up 0.6% in September. Looking good for the half year.

Bobbyvee
06-10-2006, 01:50 PM
I agree Oneup, it is probably profit taking. A good opportunity to buy a few more.

robbo
06-10-2006, 04:42 PM
TRS..


Yep. Also do Agree guys...

Regards,

Robbo :)

OneUp
10-10-2006, 12:50 PM
Sold as low as $7.05 two days ago. $7.75 now. Which fund manager will be shot for that balls up?

contrarianinvestor
11-10-2006, 02:12 PM
Sold 1/3 today. I still believe this business will have superior growth for many years to come. The high valuation however tells me that the wider market also think so. Saying that: Lynch, Fisher and Buffet probably would have held on.

OneUp
11-10-2006, 02:26 PM
quote:Originally posted by contrarianinvestor
The high valuation


Is a PE of 22 a high valuation for a company growing 20-30% per year? (and 38% last year)

robbo
11-10-2006, 03:07 PM
TRS. (The Reject Shop)-- TRS

Yes, I do also Agree with your proposition CI.... about:-- P. Lynch and W. Buffett, re your last TRS post ... Contrarian-Investor.(CI).

A TRS's investor's Decision may.... Probably/possibly--??-- may also depend on:

(1) What Price you entered:-- as an investor, The Reject Shop (TRS)

(2) Your Tax situation---- at the Australian Company Rate you have to pay out 30% of your capital gains-- so on $100K invested-- you would have to pay now $90K in ....Company Tax.... by selling now, assuming no offset deductions, if you entered TRS at $2.00.

(2) If you entered TRS at $2.00 like myself and One Up-- . then obvously every increment of 40 cents rise, represents a capital gain of yet....another ....compounding 20% on the initial invested Capital, in TRS ordinary stock.

Also agree with you Contraian-Investor..... in that....

...-- .... Say the TRS share is approx, is still .....'only' ....... $8.00 when TRS's next fully franked Dividends are declared -- The TRS Investors from 2 years ago are now currently receiving, a very commendable-- 14.8% Dividend; which is also-- Fully Franked ---- on their initial TRS invested capital--.....

This is, imo only, excellent compounding -- ie: period on period --- genuine relaaaxed == [8D] Wealth Creation, imo. :)

All in all, $100K invested in TRS originally 2 short years ago, is now worth $400,000K ---(in what I would argue, is a reasonably 'recession proof' -- Easy to "sleep at night" Investment-- and with overall good 'defensive properties-- and is a safe 'low relative risk' -- imo -- intrinsically rational investment.... in a truly proven .....Quality Business Model.

Also that $100K invested in TRS originally-- is giving the current original TRS Investor now : $284.00 Tax Free Weekly Dollars -[:p] (fully franked)-- for 52 weeks a year....and increasing ...... week on week, and year on year.

One could now, imo, lay a strong case, (RE. TRS) ---- that this (TRS) will continue in the future; to outperform the Bond Rate/CPI inflation risk by at least nine(9) fold...... (ie: approx 4.5% x times 9 = 40.5 %...which is still too conmservative imo !!)....:)[:p]-- Oh the joys of compounding !! -- [^]

... &gt;&gt; So Yes C.I.: -- I do definitely agree with you Contrarian--Investor.

Re: TRS, I agree with you, and also feel that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett would still continue to hold TRS.

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

DISCLAIMER
Views expressed in this email and/or internet correspondences, are my tentative thoughts and opinions only. These views are not to be read as being, or forming…. any form of a recommendation; of any sort whatsoever. Rather, they just simply personal opinions, and are NOT financial advice. Furthermore, these views are unwarranted and ought not to be read, as other than personal opinion and speculations, and are not warranted in any way whatsoever, either expressed or implied, for their accuracy, veracity, or likely predictive outcome. Furthermore, these comments are highly subjective and prejudiced by the writers own opinions and outlook. Therefore these views may be prone to errors, as they have not been checked by a third party, and are possibly incomplete and/or inaccurate. The opinions expressed here; are strictly on a “Without Prejudice” basis only. These personal subjective thoughts herein expressed, are only one view among many, and at best; are only the author’s whimsical thoughts, impressions, and intuitions. Obviously, as with all opinions, they are open to discussion and refutation, as well as consideration of other interpretations and review. For any investment decision, always do your own separate investigations and research, and always seek your own qualified and authorized third party independent financial advice.

Kindest Regards

Robbo :)






[quote]<font size="1" fa

contrarianinvestor
11-10-2006, 03:58 PM
quote:Originally posted by OneUp
Is a PE of 22 a high valuation for a company growing 20-30% per year? (and 38% last year)

20-30% growth - No.
15-18% growth - Yes.

I'm not going to bet a large proportion of my share portfolio on TRS to grow 20-30% for the next 5-15 years. I think 15-18% may be more realistic. Since I still have 2/3 left I certainly hope for 20-30%!

OneUp
11-10-2006, 04:24 PM
If TRS can manage 18% growth for 15 years that's NPAT of $109m.

At a PE of 15 that's $1.6 billion.

Versus current market cap of $200m.

robbo
11-10-2006, 04:46 PM
The Reject Shop (TRS)

INterstnbgly--David Jones has increased share price by 44% and Woolies (WOW)--by 29 % this last 12 months...

From my own observational and investmetn experience; watchng the 'space' of small Industrial-- Caps ---going to small-mid caps and then on then mid caps --ie your Mortage Choice's, Mc Millan Shakespare's, Boom Logistics, Oaktons, Clive Peters, Rebel Sports, RCR Tomlinson, Emitch,Billabong, Miller Retail, JB Hi Fi, Seek, IWL, Jet Set, Photon, Just Jeans (JST) --agree it gets harder past $1 Billion Market Cap -- to keep doing the "better than 30% annual increase mark consistently "-- --although all these listed above have done that --and many significant north of 50% increase ....

From the TRS point of view, maybe also ..... the current 'shake out' at Coles-Myer---(CML) might have some future bearing.... [?][?]:)

Regards,

Robbo :)

robbo
12-10-2006, 11:50 AM
The Reject Shop (TRS)

Annual Report and Chairman/CEO (TRS) Report now just out (from last night )-- ....

There is an awful Lot.... yep a whole lot imo.... to really like here, from an organizational S.C.A. 'intrinsic (TRS) value perspective'--

It is, imo,almost: 'Excellent Case Study' stuff-- in my view.[^]:)

Think the market will also like it too..[?]:).... Especially, 'when' they have digested it.... :)

Did also Particularly agree with and admired the following highlighted points: from the, (TRS's) M.D. 's address.:

So below is my edited and highlighted: 'Readers Digest Version'

The Reject Shop Limited ABN 33 006 122 676

245 Racecourse Rd, Kensington, Victoria, Australia 3031


MANAGING DIRECTOR’S ADDRESS TO 2006 ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING
- 11 OCTOBER 2006

The Reject Shop has a talented, experienced and committed team, whose dedication and energy are responsible for the results you see today. It has been a very demanding year for all The Reject Shop team members, and I thank each of you for your continued hard work and enthusiasm. It gives me great confidence in the future, and in what more can be done.


FY06 results


Firstly, for the benefit of our shareholders, I would like briefly to review the financial year just past, and in particular, touch on:


Results for the year to June 2006, which included our maiden 2nd half profit.


Some of the main operational initiatives we have put in place this year to build the business.

Key factors in FY06 result.


Overall, it was an extremely strong year for The Reject Shop, both from a trading and a profit point of view.

**** The results demonstrate The Reject Shop’s business model is.... a strong and resilient one, .....capable of performing well even against a background of rising petrol prices and interest rate concerns.


To recap the Headline Numbers:

• Sales growth was up 16.8% to $237.2 million

• Net profit after tax was up 38.7% to $9.1 million

• Comparable store sales growth of 7.7% -- (with 9.8% in the second half)..


This continued the strong sales and profit trend of the past few years. More than anything, the FY06 results reflect the dedicated efforts of all The Reject Shop’s 2500 strong team to continue to lift performance across all areas of the business.

The result was achieved on:

#; Strong sales in basic and traffic building ranges

#; Improved performances in the main seasonal events – Christmas, Easter, Mothers Day (and Fathers Day)

#; Continued rollout of new stores, with 14 new stores opened

; The Board’s decision last year to invest in an expanded merchandise team, and the information systems to support them.

( I personally, Really did like and approve of this above importatnt strategy and point !). [^]

#; Improvements in stock replenishment and customer communications, enhancing the in-store experience for our customers.


At year end, we were in the fortunate position of having a robust balance sheet, minimal debt, and a clean inventory.

This provides confidence that we can continue to reward our
shareholders and at the same time continue to develop a strong foundation for The Reject Shop’s future growth.


Operational achievements

Our focus has been and remains on continuous improvement in all areas, and we made further excellent progress in this regard during the year.

Merchandise

#; A

contrarianinvestor
12-10-2006, 02:41 PM
quote: There is an awful Lot.... yep a whole lot imo.... to really like here
This is scary. The share price usually peaks when optimism (especially in public discussion forums) peaks. . . . Um perhaps not, because I'm less optimistic and I'm posting here too!

robbo
12-10-2006, 03:53 PM
Reject Shop (TRS)

Agree CI -- It is good to "keep it real"-- ....

What in the TRS Annual Report -- did you personally find you did not like ?

Did you personally think that based on the factual evidence-- the TRS management's --forecast earnings figures were too optimistic ?[?]

Kind Regards,

Robbo :)

Bobbyvee
12-10-2006, 04:48 PM
Latest analysis from Intersuisse:

The company is trading at a FY07 PE, EBIT and EBITDA
ratio of 18.7, 12.5 and 9.7 times earnings. This is relatively
high for a retail company.
However due to the expectation of continual store expansion,
the estimated FY08 PE, EBIT and EBITDA ratios are
calculated at 16.0, 10.7 and 8.3 times respectively.
We previously reported TRS as an accumulate for long term
growth and we retain this view.

contrarianinvestor
13-10-2006, 09:36 AM
quote:Originally posted by davidrob

Reject Shop (TRS)
What in the TRS Annual Report -- did you personally find you did not like ?


I don't like the 'sales talk' tone of the report - big bold letters highlighting only the good stuff. If they can print 38.7% NPAT increase in 36pt bold then they should print excessive MD compensation of $984,475 in bold too. Also, the 38.7% figure can be misleading because it does not take share dilution into account. The real EPS increase for us shareholders was 34.5%, not 38.7% as they would like us to believe. Sneaky reporting such as this makes me question management's integrity.


quote:
Did you personally think that based on the factual evidence-- the TRS management's --forecast earnings figures were too optimistic

forecast earnings figures looks reasonable. I don't think the share price contains any margin of safety anymore - A slight profit glitch may severely hurt the share price.

winner69
27-12-2006, 02:38 PM
Will it hit 900 today????

Still heading north

Whilst in Melbourne earlier this month went into 2 Reject Shops .... chocker block they were with good queues at the checkout.

Did remind me a bit of the WHS in its early days but even so the results count don't they

JB Hi Fi shops were also flat out .... one shop assistant said could get enough of the Wiii thingies.

Looking good for both .... and they say that retail is still not the place to be .... so watch out when things DO turn around

winner69
27-12-2006, 07:32 PM
Closed at 910

This time last year was 422 ... so more than doubled

Hit 500 in Feb
Hit 600 in June
Hit 700 in August
Nit 800 in September
Hit 900 today

Makes you wonder what would happen if they made a real good announcement in the New Year

winner69
28-12-2006, 12:20 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69

Closed at 910

This time last year was 422 ... so more than doubled

Hit 500 in Feb
Hit 600 in June
Hit 700 in August
Nit 800 in September
Hit 900 today

Makes you wonder what would happen if they made a real good announcement in the New Year


At this rate might even hit 1000 before years end

Not exceptional volumes but somebody very very keen on buying what is available

patsy
12-01-2007, 01:01 PM
This stock has been hovering around $9.50 for quite a few days.... This figure is significant because it triggers the "sell" recommendation of Aspect Huntley.

I have doubled my money already with TRS and I'm starting to wonder if this is the right time to bail out.

Thoughts?

winner69
23-01-2007, 06:02 AM
I say $10 this week

Aussies spending like buggery, inflation down and even interest rates might go down

Alls well on the discount shopping front ...

Specialling Aussie flags this week ... good buy if going to BDO .... buy them landed for 95 cents ,,, sell them $8.50

Bobbyvee
23-01-2007, 08:31 AM
The prospect is for another strong half year result and combining this with clarity and order in succession planning leads me to believe there is still significant upside for Reject. The fact that this lower end of the retail market tends to prosper irrespective of interest rate movement is a further positive.
I make a point of looking in at any Reject shop I pass - there is almost always a queue at the check-out. There still a favorite for me.

Cheers
BobbyVee

winner69
02-02-2007, 07:42 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69

Closed at 910

This time last year was 422 ... so more than doubled

Hit 500 in Feb
Hit 600 in June
Hit 700 in August
Nit 800 in September
Hit 900 today

Makes you wonder what would happen if they made a real good announcement in the New Year


.... and closed over 1000 today ..... almost as good as a resource stock ..... and still no announcement this year to boost the price

robbo
03-02-2007, 02:27 PM
The Reject Shop. (TRS)

As some of you may know, have been having a bit of a rest from S/Trader, after feeling a bit dudded --for the 'ramping' rather naughty ramping allegation ---on ANG ---when the price was about 50 cents-- on the ANG thread--but i must say I did note the wise words; which Winner 69 said on this TRS thread -- TRS being one of The Pub's perennial faves--- and Holds-- .

How many of you guys still hold ANG---and MTN --past $3.00 now--!!-- for that matter....??

....Back to the great succinct post and what Winner69 said....

Winner69 said: ..... almost as good as a resource stock ..... and still no announcement this year to boost the price...

Exactly my sentiments Winner69 ... as good as a resource stock.... and without the downside risk, and with all of the predictability and pre-determinability for those who are prepated to research and analyze and find the undervalued low risk intrinsic value high growth and high margin of safety-- rare share gems...--like TRS...!!

Yes, I do agree; You can get these sorts of returns with the odd U play ...etc... and even more %age up side gain ....if your 'feeling lucky'-- .... sometimes...

But if you choose ten (10) -- resource stock "hope" and cross your fingers" --- explorer ---penny dreadfuls-- you will not get the..... consistency.... which as Winner69 alludes to; is ALSO -- available.... with the TRS style of pick at $2.00 --and therefore you will not, be as likely to get the compounding your wealth like a snowball- effect ....

-- btw-- getting over my "sulk" and prior frustration-- and will let you know --- IF YOU ARE INTERESTED--?? [?][?]-- of a new Value, High Growth Potential Stock --of course on my assessment and only in my ivew-- very shortly.

About 85% "there"-- with my due diligience and research....on the next new fresh stock "idea".

Kindest Regards,

Robbo . :)(& from all at the PUB.).

PS. (it&e will be v.significant-- imo-- over the next week to 10 days imo ....too.)

----------------------------ends ------------------------------------




quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by winner69

Closed at 910

This time last year was 422 ... so more than doubled

Hit 500 in Feb
Hit 600 in June
Hit 700 in August
Nit 800 in September
Hit 900 today

Makes you wonder what would happen if they made a real good announcement in the New Year


.... and closed over 1000 today ..... almost as good as a resource stock ..... and still no announcement this year to boost the price

Bobbyvee
03-02-2007, 06:26 PM
Hi Robbo, good to have you back on Sharetrader. I have been enjoying and holding TRS for 18 months now and also ANG for quite a period. I heartily agree that correctly picked, these non resources, steadily growing and earning companies are in many ways the best/safest bet for growing the portfolio.

Thanks for intro to these. Look forward to your new ideas. One company that you have previously mentioned in passing, although there is no thread on Sharetrader, is Heemskirk (HSK). I have been buying into these and steady growth is evidend. They are a resources stock with a bit of a difference. I also have great faith in Hyro (HYO) - thread opened - but have not drawn too many supporters as yet.

All the best
BobbyVee

tommy
03-02-2007, 07:17 PM
Hi Robbo,

Nice to see ya back mate[8D]

Add me to the list of "welcome back robbo!" brigade here too, I owe you more than a few crownies you know;)

Do you still hold RFG? It's been sweeeeeet[:p]

firpohorse
03-02-2007, 07:41 PM
Some people say this share is a joke. Do you know why they might be saying that?

Huang Chung
03-02-2007, 10:25 PM
Nice to see you posting again Robbo....things weren't quite the same without you.

Hello Cujo.

OneUp
04-02-2007, 03:22 AM
quote:Originally posted by firpohorse

Some people say this share is a joke. Do you know why they might be saying that?


No mate, you heard that one wrong. There was a troll called cujodog who everyone thought was a joke.

winner69
04-02-2007, 06:52 AM
quote:Originally posted by OneUp


quote:Originally posted by firpohorse

Some people say this share is a joke. Do you know why they might be saying that?


No mate, you heard that one wrong. There was a troll called cujodog who everyone thought was a joke.


the one obsessed with animals, ( ----dog and -----horse)is back

Smae comments on the same stocks .... good luck mate .... the market is about to collapse

firpohorse
04-02-2007, 01:21 PM
quote:Originally posted by OneUp


quote:Originally posted by firpohorse

Some people say this share is a joke. Do you know why they might be saying that?


No mate, you heard that one wrong. There was a troll called cujodog who everyone thought was a joke.


Oneup you are the only joke around here...apart from TRS that is!!

OneUp
04-02-2007, 01:30 PM
Troll, from wikipedia.

In Internet terminology, a troll is a person who enters an established community such as an online discussion forum and intentionally tries to cause disruption, often in the form of posting messages that are inflammatory, insulting, incorrect, inaccurate, or off-topic, with the intent of provoking a reaction from others.

A troll desperately craves the attention of others. The best way to deal with a troll is to ignore him or her. They will eventually get bored and leave.

firpohorse
04-02-2007, 02:25 PM
Isn't it funny how people who are unintelligent have to quote from wikipedia to try and make themselves sound intelligent.

Unfortunately it doesn't work.

David Hardman
14-02-2007, 11:20 AM
1/2 year report out this morning.

Great growth for the period with more expected. What an outstanding company.

However TRS maybe getting a tad expensive?

EPS of 40.. Trading at $10.. Gives us a PE of 25

When Oneup (thanks!) started the thread TRS was trading on a PE of 11.

$10 has provided stiff resistance (maybe psychological?) over the last month

Is TRS now fully priced?

winner69
15-02-2007, 12:23 PM
Still going mate Mr Hardman

Great story .... a bit like JB Hi Fi that has also gone gangbusters since reporting a great result the other day

Keep on the train as long as growth is still there I say ..... when the number of new stores starts to slow is time to think about getting out

winner69
15-02-2007, 12:25 PM
quote:Originally posted by David Hardman


When Oneup (thanks!) started the thread TRS was trading on a PE of 11.


Amazing the impact of PE reratings .... esp when earnings keep goping up as well

winner69
02-04-2007, 12:00 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by winner69

Closed at 910

This time last year was 422 ... so more than doubled

Hit 500 in Feb
Hit 600 in June
Hit 700 in August
Nit 800 in September
Hit 900 today

Makes you wonder what would happen if they made a real good announcement in the New Year


.... and closed over 1000 today ..... almost as good as a resource stock ..... and still no announcement this year to boost the price



Above post was 2 months ago (2/2/07)

AND NOT THAT FAR OFF THE $12 MARK TODAY

Some time in April for that i say

OneUp
02-04-2007, 12:35 PM
The Reject Shop has been an incredible investment and has years of strong profit growth to come.

PS: you're welcome Dave!

tommy
02-04-2007, 02:47 PM
Well done Oneup,

I have never managed to get back into TRS after selling my stake a while ago, and man, do I regret it[xx(]

To see the stellar performance of TRS, take a look at this chart:
http://asx.netquote.com.au/charts.asp?code=trs&x=0&y=0

Literally NO-BRAINER!

I am a big fan of TRS, it's a bullet-proof company with solid growth potential backed by a very impressive track record, thanks to good management who know what it takes to grow in the retail business.

ohmyme
02-04-2007, 02:52 PM
Although oneup started the thread, I think you will find that this was originally one of Robbo's picks (from a different thread). I think as usual the thanks should go to Robbo for another amazing investment gem.

cheers.

Heavy Metal
02-04-2007, 03:34 PM
quote:Originally posted by Heavy Metal

If TRS starts to veer from its currently successful positioning in the market (and in the big retail malls) then it's probably time to sell. Until then enjoy the continuing uptrend.


I posted this in June 06 when the price was $6. No change in focus since then, and therefore no change in the uptrend. Well done all holders. Just be wary of any announcements about change in direction etc.

winner69
12-04-2007, 03:16 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by winner69

Closed at 910

This time last year was 422 ... so more than doubled

Hit 500 in Feb
Hit 600 in June
Hit 700 in August
Nit 800 in September
Hit 900 today

Makes you wonder what would happen if they made a real good announcement in the New Year


.... and closed over 1000 today ..... almost as good as a resource stock ..... and still no announcement this year to boost the price



Above post was 2 months ago (2/2/07)

AND NOT THAT FAR OFF THE $12 MARK TODAY

Some time in April for that i say


well over $12 now

MAYBE $13 BY END OF APRIL

Heck ... this is almost going up as fast as my nickel and uranium stocks

Huang Chung
12-04-2007, 07:38 PM
Congrats on backing a winner, Winner :)

Are you going to keep holding? Do you have any price targets in mind, or just plan to hold in perpetuity?

P.S. Isn't it about time we heard from Cujo/Firpo [?][?]...or maybe he's just given up....

winner69
19-04-2007, 12:30 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by winner69

Closed at 910

This time last year was 422 ... so more than doubled

Hit 500 in Feb
Hit 600 in June
Hit 700 in August
Nit 800 in September
Hit 900 today

Makes you wonder what would happen if they made a real good announcement in the New Year


.... and closed over 1000 today ..... almost as good as a resource stock ..... and still no announcement this year to boost the price



Above post was 2 months ago (2/2/07)

AND NOT THAT FAR OFF THE $12 MARK TODAY

Some time in April for that i say


well over $12 now

MAYBE $13 BY END OF APRIL

Heck ... this is almost going up as fast as my nickel and uranium stocks


WELL ...... $13 GONE .... MAYBE $14 IN APRIL

COLIN
19-04-2007, 07:41 PM
Presumably Fisher Funds still hold this one in their Australian Growth Fund. I hope so, as I have a vested interest.......

OneUp
19-04-2007, 11:37 PM
I think a lot of this buying is due to inclusion in the All Ords.

Pretty illiquid stock so instos having to pay up.

patsy
26-04-2007, 08:31 AM
quote:Originally posted by OneUp

I think a lot of this buying is due to inclusion in the All Ords.

Pretty illiquid stock so instos having to pay up.



For NZ holders, the inclusion of TRS in the All Ords is great news indeed. TRS becomes an exempt stock from the new tax on overseas investments since it is now within an official index and has a franking dividend account.

winner69
02-05-2007, 11:51 AM
quote:Originally posted by winner69
[br

WELL ...... $13 GONE .... MAYBE $14 IN APRIL




April was a bit far fetched but hell $14 in May is very likely and todays is only the 2nd

Is still on fire ... fire .... fire .... goodness knows why but why sell while everybody wants to seem to get in on the action

OneUp
02-05-2007, 11:55 AM
quote:Originally posted by OneUp

I think a lot of this buying is due to inclusion in the All Ords.

Pretty illiquid stock so instos having to pay up.


I reckon this is a pretty good theory as to why the sudden interest, Winner.

tommy
07-05-2007, 04:44 PM
TRS now at PE of 32, yet uptrend continues

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=AU%3Atrs&draw.x=0&draw.y=0

Kicking myself for selling out toooooooooooooooooooooooooo early[xx(]

Well done holders, everyone is a winner at da reject shop!

winner69
24-07-2007, 06:19 PM
Only July and another burst and $15 beckons

Fundamentally a good business model and still expanding but ....

So one for the charts this is .... what the heck if it is overvalued ..... people still want more of the action

winner69
25-07-2007, 10:46 AM
Speeding ticket issued yesterday and the normal we don't know why people are buying our stock

Did confirm full year profit at $12M odd ...... oh heck that gives it a pe in excess of 30

Never mind .... as long as punters still want a piece of the action its a good story .... but watching that chart carefully

OneUp
25-07-2007, 03:27 PM
Outstanding result - TRS yet again posts a stellar increase in NPAT (+31.9%) and yet again beat guidance (and even a smidgen better than I expected). Notice this result includes $1.0m in one-off expenses related to the distribution centre set up in 1H07. Also remember that TRS accelerated its store opening programme in 2H07. The dollar is at all time highs, helping margins. 1H08 should be really terrific. The P/E ratio is high but so is the historic and forecast growth rate. So long as strong growth is maintained the P/E will be maintained. Dare I hope for $20 by February next year?

IMO not the time to sell out guys.

tommy
25-07-2007, 04:16 PM
Hi all,

TRS is absolutely brilliant indeed, it was never the time to sell in hindsight:( Well done holders, seems like this is a growth stock that just keeps on going up, up and up! Proven excellent management, strong AUS dollar and its streamlined supply chain may warrant an even higher PE considering that TRS (likewise JBH) are the cream of the crop in the retail sector.

Congrats holders!

OneUp
15-08-2007, 12:54 PM
TRS posts a better than expected result ($12.3m NPAT) and is opening 20 new stores yet is slaughtered with all the rest.

tommy
15-08-2007, 04:55 PM
TRS posts a better than expected result ($12.3m NPAT) and is opening 20 new stores yet is slaughtered with all the rest.

Hi Oneup,

I am extremely tempted to get back into TRS at the current price, but chart is looking a bit sick:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=AU&#37;3Atrs&draw.x=0&draw.y=0

Cannot believe every stock on ASX is getting punished due to all this sub-prime bullxxxt in the US. Is there any rationality to this panic? TRS will continue to grow regardless of US financial market turmoil... but lemmings are jumping off cliffs like it is the end of the world!

OneUp
15-08-2007, 05:17 PM
Hey mate,

TRS is recession proof - proved it last time (2005) and will prove again if need be. The weak holders see the headlines and panic. So be it.

They opened 26 odd stores over the last six months and will open a lot more before the key Xmas trading season.

The $14.5m forecast for 08 is ultra conservative. They'd get that if they didn't open any new stores. The actual result will be +20-30% of what they're forecasting. That brings the 08 P/E below 20.

winner69
15-08-2007, 06:00 PM
Yes an outstanding result and the company performance will no doubt be good over the next few years

In markets like this you tighten trailling stops so I was out at $13.80 .... my old mate Phaedrus would be proud of me

Like with JBH wait for things to settle down before having another go sometime

winner69
16-08-2007, 12:24 PM
TRS = Totally Rejected Share today

Down 7&#37; today at 1136 after yesterdays result .... must have disapoointed the market

Just patiently waiting until +ve momentum

OneUp
16-08-2007, 12:28 PM
Winner

Perhaps best not to rationalize the selling.

Result came in above consensus forecasts (and above guidance).

Forecast for 08 in line with analyst expectations. However they will assuredly beat it by 20-30%.

hods
16-08-2007, 01:28 PM
This market is really strange ... IMD Results great yet got smacked as well.
Since I am new to the stock markets, I was thinking this would be a could learning experience ....... I just don't know what I am learning tho !!!

OneUp
16-08-2007, 01:31 PM
Hods. You're learning that when people get scared they do stupid things.

tommy
16-08-2007, 03:44 PM
mmm, TRS getting beaten too, hope it goes below 10 bucks so I can get back in! I cannot believe this sector is getting smashed too, is the market full of pea heads or what?

OneUp
16-08-2007, 04:19 PM
Mate, we both know the answer to that!

steve fleming
21-03-2008, 11:32 AM
Just about every bit of commentary i read and analyst I talk to rates TRS an exceptional buy.

I see Huntleys agree.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Yield, Growth and Value – An investment bargain. 1H08 NPAT of $14m is up 38% on sales of $190m. A strong indicator to the popularity of the stores is strong comparable store sales growth up 9.2%. The company has upgraded its FY08 NPAT forecast from $14.8m-$15m to $16.3m-$16.5m, a 35% increase on FY07. The board is confident in the sustainability of its performance and lifts its dividend payout from 65% to 75% of NPAT. On our forecasts it’s yielding a fully franked dividend of plus 5%. This is a respectable level for a growth company with profits up an average 35% pa for the last three years. The fall in market prices now provides the opportunity to pick up this phenomenal growth stock at a cheap price paying out a healthy yield, it’s a bargain.......


......Margins for the half increased from 11.7% to 12.7%. A strong A$ a key contributor to this because product manufactured in China becomes cheaper. Another component is the build up in sales volume which means greater utilisation of distribution infrastructure and scale efficiencies......

winner69
12-08-2009, 12:48 PM
About time we had another look at TRS. Sharepriced didn't get smashed as much as say JBH did late last year and the long term chart looks a lot more respectable .... insofar as it didn't fall as much as some others and has improved steadily from the bottom

Still increasing footprint and if they report a good full year result in the next day or two the shareprice could take off again and reach a new high

winner69
20-08-2009, 05:24 AM
TRS beat expectations .... still increasing footprint ... some bullish comments about increased profit in 2010

Shareprice will take the next step up over the next month or so

winner69
09-12-2010, 12:43 PM
Jeez when The Reject Shop has a profit downgrade and says things are tough it is starting to get serious in Australia ... always said NZ leads the world and maybe NZ of 2 years ago is what Australia is starting to look like in 2010 / 2011

And funny how the chart started heading down a month ago .... jeez those charts tell some stories eh

Wonder how far TRS will go down ... after another profit downgrade how much?

winner69
09-12-2010, 12:46 PM
Hadn't noticed the thread heading earlier

6 years ago TRS almost hits $15 ....... and today $13.50

Secular bear markets are cruel things eh

drillfix
09-12-2010, 01:07 PM
Good post KW and some good advice really.

Another reason would be Technically the 13ema has now punched through the 150ema and will give you a perfect technical heads up reason to be out, imo.

As when the 13ema crosses, so follows the 30ema not long after.

winner69
09-12-2010, 01:18 PM
From The Australian

THE Reject Shop was hammered in the stockmarket today.

Should Glenn Stevens ever pen his riveting memoir Confessions of a Central Banker, the Cup Day rates rise could well lead off the chapter: "Regrets -- I've had a few".

The Reject Shop (TSR, $13.54) this morning bore further testament to the debilitating effect of the 25 basis point rise on retailers.

Downgrading current-year earnings expectations from $26-26.5 million to $21-22m, CEO Chris Bryce noted sales had been holding up well in October (year to date like-for-like growth of 4.2 per cent), despite price deflation which means retailers have to sell more to achieve the same profit.

However, November and December sales have been negative and well below expectations.

"The drop in customer traffic and general customer spending since the interest rate rise was completely unexpected, however it is our understanding that overall customer traffic and spending is down across the retail sector."

To be fair on the RBA, the official retail stats for the month of October -- before the rates rise -- were shocking. Then again, aren't the central bankers meant to have their finger on the pulse with data not yet available to the public?

Retail luminaries including Gerry Harvey and Bernie Brookes and Solomon Lew have already borne testimony to the difficult conditions.

TRS's experience is more disturbing because of the value-conscious focus of its clientele: in other words, they're too tight to buy anything more than a $10 lavender scent diffuser for their mother-in-law.
So if TRS is suffering, things must be really crook in retail land.

Intriguingly, Bryce notes that its seasonal (ie Christmas) goods have been more affected than its non-seasonal stuff. The poor weather has also been a factor: beach balls and Mexican hats normally walk off the shelves at this time of the year, but ...

winner69
10-12-2010, 07:43 AM
TRS is a good example of hoe secular bear markets relentlessley grind down investors

In 2007 TRS sales were $280m and NPAT was about $14m ... and the shareprice was about $14

Now sales are nearly $500m amd profits will be in excess of $20m .... and the shareprice is still about $14m

Secular bear markets are all about reducing valuations ... when markets go from high PEs to low PEs ... and generally end when market PEs are less than 10

Here we have TRS as a company performing very well and still growing ,,,, but market sentiment is playing its bit so multiples fall and so does the shareprice

TRS still on a PE of about 15 so still pretty high .... even that will be prob reduce over the next year or so as this secular bear market grinds on for a few more years

mark100
10-12-2010, 10:29 AM
I would have more described it as an overpriced stock that is now being de-rated to reflect the possibility that their previous growth rates won't be repeated

soulman
10-12-2010, 02:27 PM
I would have more described it as an overpriced stock that is now being de-rated to reflect the possibility that their previous growth rates won't be repeated

Spot on here Mark.

winner69
13-01-2011, 07:45 PM
Flood seems to have really stuffed them up

No doubt a massive reaction when trading recommences tomorrow .... this may be the time to get interested again if the shareprice plummets

soulman
14-01-2011, 06:49 PM
It does the opposite winner69. Stumped me. WOW and WES having great days as well.

macduffy
15-01-2011, 07:04 AM
Markets fear uncertainty most of all but the worst can now be seen, more or less.

Big companies like WOW, WES and TRS will have suffered significant damage but they are normally comprehensively insured. The market is now looking beyond the disaster to the increased business for these companies as lost and damaged goods need to be replaced.

winner69
27-11-2012, 10:48 AM
TRS been one of the stars of the ASX over the last 3-4 months -- up 50% from $10 to nearly $15 ..... bugger it missed out this time around

Got things sorted out after the warehouse washed away a year or so ago .... expansion plans back on track ... all go and the market likes it

Spooky eh ... thread title is TRS almost hits $15 ... and that was back in 2004

Just shows you always follow the big trends and lock in most of the profits when you can and minimise any losses. TRS prob made some heaps over the years doing this

winner69
27-11-2012, 11:29 AM
Long term trends .... easy peasy eh

h2so4
15-03-2013, 06:20 PM
Ha! Winner spot on mate. It would have been good buying at these prices.

winner69
28-11-2014, 06:10 PM
One of my old favourites is The Reject Shop and never gone off the watchlist

Trading the big trends has been profitable in the past

Getting interested again .... been crucified the last month or so and $6 is beginning to look cheap

Still growing .... probably sell $650m of crap this year and make $15m-$20m (at $20m PE currently about 8)

Watching closely .... even with the **** sentiment in Australia at the moment

NZSilver
29-11-2014, 08:32 AM
Agreed winner, was in aus mid year for a trip up the east coast in a van, and found reject shop handy on several occasions to buy things - matches, pillows, bowels ect, all stuff I just left in the hired campervan after we left. The shops were alway busy and in prime spots in the malls. All stuff you wouldn't bother ever buying online so prob not much competition there

Obviously been down in a massive downtrend so I've been keeping eye on it.

But as yourve said fundmentally it's looking cheap.

Corporate
30-11-2014, 11:47 PM
Hi W69, I also keep an eye on TRS.

The one thing I think people misunderstand when looking at the TRS results is that the P&L and cash flow are both heavily influenced by the cost of opening new stores, in terms of both expensed P&L costs, capex, and working capital. To put this into context in the last four years TRS have opened just over 110 new stores.

At some point - I think around 400 stores - the spending on new stores will cease and TRS will focus on optimisation and harvesting some good cash flow from the business.

silverblizzard888
01-12-2014, 12:34 AM
Hi W69, I also keep an eye on TRS.

The one thing I think people misunderstand when looking at the TRS results is that the P&L and cash flow are both heavily influenced by the cost of opening new stores, in terms of both expensed P&L costs, capex, and working capital. To put this into context in the last four years TRS have opened just over 110 new stores.

At some point - I think around 400 stores - the spending on new stores will cease and TRS will focus on optimisation and harvesting some good cash flow from the business.

I agree as well, if you break down the annual statement and check out that sales have actually increased and why profit has ended up lower its because of added expenses in opening new stores and impairment in assets. Once they stop opening so many stores they will start to optimise their expenses, considering they have opened a third warehouse not to long ago I assume this will help build economies of scale and expense ratio will lower. I think pricing now is good for a business in its growth phase, a little lower and I'd find it view attractive. Given the 30 odd cents dividend a year $5 would be optimal pricing as it would meet my goal of what I could get in the bank for interest (well maybe a little better)while I wait for it to boost profits, I think if I didn't get a slight premium it wouldn't be worth it for the risk. If history is anything to go by, they have two year fluctuations, they could well be up to $15 again at the start of 2016. All my imagination anyway. DYOR

macduffy
01-12-2014, 05:58 AM
For what it's worth, there's been comment in Aust recently that TRS has branched out from its " low cost/basic goods" approach into stocking larger, more expensive appliances/capital goods with consequent increases in inventory and slowing of stock turn. At least, that's the talk.

winner69
26-01-2015, 07:35 AM
Still watching

Still sinking to multi year lows and under 6 bucks .....long way from peak of nearly 20 bucks

I reckon another decent trade coming up .....just look at long term chart from IPO with its decent ups and downs

Sometime soon

macduffy
26-01-2015, 08:09 AM
TRS is set for a sharp profit fall, according to The Age.

http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-business/reject-shop-set-for-sharp-fall-in-profit-20150123-3oou9.html

winner69
26-01-2015, 08:29 AM
TRS is set for a sharp profit fall, according to The Age.

http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-business/reject-shop-set-for-sharp-fall-in-profit-20150123-3oou9.html

We. Known that for a few months but present and future suggests maybe no worse

macduffy
26-01-2015, 08:40 AM
We. Known that for a few months but present and future suggests maybe no worse

Indeed. And now, reported sales for the six months to December were down 3.3% on the previous period.