ADY - extremely cheap or too risky/early

[shasta]

Slam

When the Lithium comes online next year, no one will be bothered by an entry of 20 - 25c, it's heading to $1 & the Iron Ore will help it move in the right direction!

[STRAT]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Slam

When the Lithium comes online next year, no one will be bothered by an entry of 20 - 25c, it's heading to $1 & the Iron Ore will help it move in the right direction!
I dunno about that Shasta. Thats a difference of 100% at $1 not that I would be unhappy with 400% :D Oh, and thanks for the warm welcome fellas. She seemed to find some support today at around 25c which is reassuring considering it was a pretty gloomy day all round. Jumped on board with URA today too [:0]

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by STRAT


quote:Originally posted by shasta

Slam

When the Lithium comes online next year, no one will be bothered by an entry of 20 - 25c, it's heading to $1 & the Iron Ore will help it move in the right direction!
I dunno about that Shasta. Thats a difference of 100% at $1 not that I would be unhappy with 400% :D Oh, and thanks for the warm welcome fellas. She seemed to find some support today at around 25c which is reassuring considering it was a pretty gloomy day all round. Jumped on board with URA today too [:0]


What ever happened to taking what you need, & leaving some on the table for the next person [?]

I'd be more than happy with 400%...

Sheesh, some people ya can't please :D

[OutToLunch]

Just got back from holidays overnight and bloody hell, look at ADY -- up 6.5 cents since the 16th. Honestly I don't know why I even bothered to unpack the car today -- it's much more profitable if I just stay away! :D

[clearasmud]

good on you Outtolunch.
And congratulations on having the guts and insight to back ADY hard at 10c.
Is it too early to plan a $1 party?

Clearasmud

[shasta]

ADY strong on open too - should be a good day, being "window dressing day" & all.

[OutToLunch]

quote:Originally posted by clearasmud

good on you Outtolunch.
And congratulations on having the guts and insight to back ADY hard at 10c.
Is it too early to plan a $1 party?

Clearasmud


Cheers -- as for the $1 party, yes I think it's a bit early for that just yet. But by this time next year we may be talking about getting the invites out (and if so I might be thinking about typing up my resignation letter). :)

[Damo79]

3 buyers with bids for 1.3 mil shares between them at 27 cents (about $350000 worth). Orders of that size seem beyond most day traders and give me a warm fuzzy feeling that this price level is supported. :-)

Roughly the same number of shares on offer at 27.5, but from 16 sellers. Out with the punters, in with the investors?

[Scuffer]

Gotta love this over the last week looks like the big boys are moving in just glad I've got a few while I could still afford them.

[Halebop]

3 more days above the 25 cent mark and I'll be happy to call it supported. Volumes holding up well despite "heightened" price action. Apologies for the fuzzy image, exported it in the wrong format and couldn't repair it afterwards...

http://img247.imageshack.us/img247/8595/adygifsv1.gif

[shasta]

Thanks for posting the charts Halebop

Much appreciated

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Thanks for posting the charts Halebop

Much appreciated

Cheers Shasta! [8D]

[tricha]

Just a hint to why Lithium will become very valuable and the consumption is ready to explode. Will hopefully turn ADMIRALTY RESOURCES NL. (ADY) into a multi billion dollar company;)
(Extracting lithium chloride and potash from a salt brine lake in Argentina. Operating 10 iron ore mines in Chile. Exploring for Nickel in Western Australia (Pyke Hill tenement) and lead and Zinc in the Northern Territory (Bulman Tenement).)

Makita's Lithium Ion Is Here!HomeCompanyNews
Thursday 30 November 2006


We at Makita have just released our range of Lithium Ion Mobile tools. Makita’s LXT (Lithium Xtreme Technology) Lithium Ion range.

Makita have the right combination of power, run time and weight, while many other brands have moved to larger platforms to generate the longer run times.

Makita’s Lithium Ion Range is best described by More Power. Less Weight and Better Engineering.

More Power is created by the 4 pole motor specifically designed for the LXT range, which allows it to efficiently generate more power in a more compact design.

Less Weight is obtained by the compact motor and the smaller Lithium Ion cells which provide a lighter battery pack, approximately 40% less weight than a standard Ni-Cad or Ni-Metal Hydride battery.

Better Engineering encompasses many features:

The battery – apart from the battery being lighter, it also provides anytime charge with no memory effect, shock absorbing heavy duty pack to protect the cells, multi contact firm holding ensuring consistent power supply and an Optimum Charging System which communicates with the battery and recharges accordingly to the batteries requirements and history. For example if the battery is hot, it will cool it down before recharging. All this equates to longer battery life.

New grip ergonomics create even pressure distribution , better fit and ultimately less fatigue.

There are already a number of new tools that this technology has allowed Makita to create such as the 4 mode impact driver, pen type impact driver and oil impulse driver.
Makita’s commitment to development will mean that new LXT tools will continue to surface, pushing the envelope of power tool technology.

LXT is now available. Please view our LXT Authorised Dealer link for your closest dealer

[Scuffer]

Tricha you got me to buy shares in ADY and I am extremely happy with my purchase now I am tempted to go and spend some of my precious dollars on a Makita lithium battery operated drill. I enjoy reading your posts keep them coming.

[tricha]

Thanks for your thoughts Scuffer, I hope u got in at 20 cents. Admiralty certainly has potential, it could take a few years to fully unlease and it is speculation at it's best ;)

Scientists double the capacity of rechargeable lithium batteries
Trendwatch
By Wolfgang Gruener
Tuesday, May 08, 2007 00:00
Recommend article:Chicago (IL) – New research results presented today could bring companies such as Intel much closer to that goal of offering notebooks that achieve a battery running time of 8 hours and more.


Researchers of the Department of Energy's Argonne National Laboratory claim to have developed an enhanced approach to building of rechargeable lithium-ion batteries.

Scheduled for an unveiling at the meeting of the Electrochemical Society today, the new technology is based on a “manganese-rich” nano-crystalline, layered-composite structure that is used as material for the positive electrode. According to an early announcement, the researchers are using a uses a two-component "composite" structure: An active component for charge storage is embedded in an inactive component that stabilizes the structure.

First test results are promising: The scientists claim that the new materials yielded record charge-storage capacities of more than 250 mAh/g or more than twice the capacity of materials used in rechargeable lithium batteries today. In addition to the capacity advantage, the presenters also say that manganese-rich systems are cheaper to manufacture than today’s cobalt and nickel versions of lithium batteries.

According to a press release, the technology could be used in virtually all lithium-based rechargeable batteries – and improve the battery life for example in consumer electronics, laptops, medical devices and even hybrid electric vehicles.

It was unclear if and when the technology could go into mass production.

[shasta]

Tricha

Years?

Try until June 2008 when the Lithium project gets it's wings & starts ramping up production heading into 2009 in full steam!

ADY has the makings of the top stock of 2008.

Not too sure there are any other stocks that have fundamentals this good & so undervalued, if so please divulge!

[OutToLunch]

Nice announcement. :)

PERMITS ISSUED TO MINE 3.9 MILLION TONNES PER ANNUM OF IRON ORE
FROM JAPONESITA, MIRADOR, PRIMAVERA AND MARIPOSA TENEMENTS
AT SANTA BARBARA
The Board of Directors are pleased to announce that a major milestone in our production
expansion strategy to reach 7.2 million tonnes per annum from the Santa Barbara mines has
been reached. The environmental permits have been issued to mine iron ore from the
tenements Japonesita, Mirador & Primavera and Mariposa areas increasing permitted
production to 3.9m tonnes per annum. In revenue terms at an FOB price of $43 per tonne,
this means the Santa Barbara mines will be capable of producing revenues of $167m per
annum.
Plant Construction and Mining Permits
The current permit allows 1.5m tonnes per annum from the 32 hectare Japonesa tenement.
The new permit for the Japonesita-Mirador-Primavera tenements which covers 127 hectares
has been approved for 1.2m tonnes per annum. A permit to mine 1.2m tonnes per annum
from the Mariposa tenement which covers more than 35 hectares was also issued. Mariposa
is located about four kilometres from the new beneficiation plant constructed in January 2007.
The permit allows us to construct three additional plants in addition to the plant located
adjacent to the Japonesa tenement. When these plants are constructed, of which the key
components are crushers, conveyors and high speed magnetic separation drums total
capacity to process iron ore will be 110,000 tonnes per plant per month. The existing plant
when fully operational which is expected to be August 2007, will have 1.3m tonnes capacity,
so an additional two plants will be constructed.
The total permitted capacity from Santa Barbara at 3.9m tonnes and Santa Fe at 1.2m tonnes
is now 5.1m tonnes which is half of our projected capacity target for 2009. The port project
Punta Alcalde will allow this iron ore to be shipped when it is completed in 2009. The Santa
Fe mine will continue to use the Caleta handymax, and Candelaria panamax ports which have
capacity of 50,000 and 78,000 tonnes respectively per vessel load.

[Dazza]

ady has been a textbook buy , and its worked like magic.

since early may for about 6 weeks, a flag/wedge has been formed with support around 20cents.

the break out about 2 weeks ago, sees it reaching an initial target of 33cents or so *ie 2x the height of the flag*

the gap on 25/6th of june, from 24.5 to 26 has been filled on the 27th.

Not to mention all this on heavy turnover, meaning the big boys have been entering.

I see support at 26cents, and until it has reached its target of 33cents, i rate it still as an accumulate.

[Scuffer]

Hi Tricha I did manage to get in at 20 but would have liked to have got more, but I'm not that cash rich at the moment without selling other stocks so I'm happy to sit and wait.:)

[bullebak]

Time to get some more? Must be trading near or at new support (0.255).

[Tech Step]

The gents on HC are predicting further falls to 23c.

I will drop my entire life savings on ADY if it hits 23c....

[bullebak]

Tech Step,

I don't like HC. My impression is that it is made up of a bunch of hyperactive kids.

Use 23 cents to buy more or do nothing. Take the longer view.

[Halebop]

23.5 could be as good a guess as any but it's a pretty random number. 25 / 25.5 looks like a more probable support level. In any case, ADY could well touch on some new highs in the short term yet. Guess it depends on your time frame but I'd be expecting a bit more positive price action over the next few months.

http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/8053/ady25supportgifpb3.gif

[tricha]

Tech Step -"I will drop my entire life savings on ADY if it hits 23c...."

Admiralty is an excellent Speculation Company, just a friendly caution
There is also a slight possibilty it will go to nought.Through a number of reasons.

- Management, can anyone classify them as being top quality.

- Nationalization, governments can and do change the rules at a whim.( The oil industry is a great example)

- Enviromental, these rules are getting much harsher and can torpedo a project.

Shasta - "ADY has the makings of the top stock of 2008.
Not too sure there are any other stocks that have fundamentals this good & so undervalued"

It does look like it has the goods Shasta, it's part of my gambling side of my portfilo and if it goes to $1 in a few years [:p], great. If it crashes, :(, I will survive;)

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[shasta]

Totally agree Tricha, my portfolio is reasonably speculative & the odd loss doesn't really alter the total return, as i then to trade rather than buy & hold.

Tech Step - Not sure i'd be putting my life savings in ADY, but it certainly has enough upside to be included in a spec portfolio.

Funds should be allocated accordingly...

[Ttops]

quote:Originally posted by bullebak

Time to get some more? Must be trading near or at new support (0.255).

Heading back up.:)Too late.

[bullebak]

quote:Originally posted by Treetops


quote:Originally posted by bullebak

Time to get some more? Must be trading near or at new support (0.255).

Heading back up.:)Too late.


Bugger...

I did add some more at 0.260, haven't sold any recently. I have been watching it very closely yesterday, interesting to see suddenly all the buyers returning when it started to move a little (up) again. Looks like there is plenty of fuel in this one.

[Tech Step]

well my life savings is a term of phrase.

I would have to sell all my IRL shares to do that and there is no way I would do that at the current price of 30.5c ;)

[shasta]

Tech Step

Isn't that snake MK apart of IRL...(I've flagged researching it now)

Am not a fan of him after the Uran fiasco...[}:)]

IRL - looks to be a better bet in 2008.

ADY will go places in 2007 & fly in 2008:D

[STRAT]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Tech Step

Isn't that snake MK apart of IRL...(I've flagged researching it now)

Am not a fan of him after the Uran fiasco...[}:)]

IRL - looks to be a better bet in 2008.

ADY will go places in 2007 & fly in 2008:D
Yes he is. . Corporate Directory for IRL


Directors
Michael Kiernan Executive Chairman
Eoin Rothery Managing Director
David Humann Non Executive Director
Allan Quadrio Non Executive Director
Craig Readhead Non Executive Director
Andrew Simpson Non Executive Director

[Scuffer]

Hi Shasta I've been out all day its good to hear that everyone is still Jolly on ADY I thought after Tricha's comment people would start to run for the door.

[STRAT]

Hi Scuffer, Trichas post was not negitive. Just realistic

[Scuffer]

Yup your right but it would make people think a little and maybe get cold feet, thats what I meant.

[shasta]

Scuffer

Tricha may just want a cheaper top up price, don't we all.

ADY is already producing Iron Ore & next year will have the Lithium as well, it is still a spec company but it is earning revenue & is cashflow positive...

De-risks the downside IMO, & we know the potential

ADY is a great example where TA & FA agree...

Hold tight & don't worry about ADY, any dips are merely top up opportunities.

[Scuffer]

Yup my thoughts precisely Shasta.

[Tech Step]

I am a firm believer in MK. Look at what has happened to TFE --> TTY since he put his fingers in. 48c -> 1.50 -> 1.15 (current price). Once the Consmin deal is accepted he will just keep on rolling.

If you look at the TTY announcements you will see that in the flurry of selling that happened on the rejection of the takeover offer people forgot to see that he/TTY bought a large manganese deposit.....

All will unfold in the next few weeks.

[tricha]

Scuffer - "Hi Shasta I've been out all day its good to hear that everyone is still Jolly on ADY I thought after Tricha's comment people would start to run for the door."

Obiously u need extreme glasses - Admiralty is an excellent Speculation Company
Get a life Scruffer, what we say on this thread has no implication on the world out there, if u want to ramp ADY u go for it, this is not a BHP, RIO, CBA, it's a spec stock.

I've got my quota and I'm happy and I'm not buying any more.

Its a bit like GGY if u got in early, great money to be had, if u got in late u got burnt.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[tricha]

P.S Just in case u r colour blind - Admiralty is an excellent Speculation Company

[bullebak]

quote:Originally posted by tricha

P.S Just in case u r colour blind - ...


Gee... Scuffer might get upset when he wakes up! :)

Anyway, we should be closing down - time to go to sleep!

[Scuffer]

It takes a lot to upset me but really Tricha meoow! I still like you even after you clawed me, I have the patience of a saint I must have to put up with some of the sinners on these threads, but its refreshing to see there is someone awake out there,thanks.

[shasta]

ADY looking to close around 27.5/28c - still looking strong folks.

Tricha some people do take notice of what the more senior posters say, though those wanting to ramp go to HotCopper!

Scuffer & co would no doubt have done there own research on ADY, but it's a compelling story unfolding right in front of us.

We are all ultimately here to make some $$$

[bullebak]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

ADY looking to close around 27.5/28c - still looking strong folks.

Tricha some people do take notice of what the more senior posters say, though those wanting to ramp go to HotCopper!

Scuffer & co would no doubt have done there own research on ADY, but it's a compelling story unfolding right in front of us.

We are all ultimately here to make some $$$


Real satisfaction comes from good trades. We are rewarded in $$$.

Noticed that whenever the stock is marked down, some buyers flee. When marked up, they return like bees... but miss out. Must be hotcopper freaks??? :)

[shasta]

I'm not trading ADY though Bullebak, it's a long term hold for me.

Any dips will provide top up opportunities & sub 30c is good buying at present IMO

[bullebak]

I am aware of that shasta. For me it's also medium/long term although I have traded it when it was around 10 cents, and may do again further up north.

No doubt tip sheet professionals will start spruiking it way above current levels.

[Scuffer]

That's what I'm waiting for tip sheet boys, but they will just bump up the price I'm in for a long to med. term.

[Scuffer]

quote:Originally posted by Scuffer

That's what I'm waiting for tip sheet boys, but they will just bump up the price I'm in for a long to med. term.Oh by the way I still like you Tricha no hard feelings,and I'm not colour blind that Iknow of.

[tricha]

Sorry I got a bit cranky Scuffer.

Thats right Shasta, "We are all ultimately here to make some $$$"
But I'd hate to think I ramped something up just to make a buck and someone who is new to this bought in late and went down in a screaming heap.

I'm in Admiralty Resources for the long haul, all the research I've done points to Lithium being the next best thing. ( However the 1st smell of trouble and I'll be out.)

The last place I worked was a nickel mine, hence the bent towards Nickel.
The mine I work in now produces, Spodumene,The ore is processed into different Spodumene purity levels ranging from 60% (Glass Grade 4.8% Li2O) to 95% (Concentrates 7.5% Li2O) Spodumene minerals.

A bit of a coincidence, maybe, maybe not.

Buffetts theory, learn the business has worked a treat so far.

Probably the most important part to Admiralty is the quality of the management.

Key Question - Does anyone have a handle for the management for Admiralty [?][?][?]
If not we need to find out.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by tricha

Sorry I got a bit cranky Scuffer.

Thats right Shasta, "We are all ultimately here to make some $$$"
But I'd hate to think I ramped something up just to make a buck and someone who is new to this bought in late and went down in a screaming heap.

I'm in Admiralty Resources for the long haul, all the research I've done points to Lithium being the next best thing. ( However the 1st smell of trouble and I'll be out.)

The last place I worked was a nickel mine, hence the bent towards Nickel.
The mine I work in now produces, Spodumene,The ore is processed into different Spodumene purity levels ranging from 60% (Glass Grade 4.8% Li2O) to 95% (Concentrates 7.5% Li2O) Spodumene minerals.

A bit of a coincidence, maybe, maybe not.

Buffetts theory, learn the business has worked a treat so far.

Probably the most important part to Admiralty is the quality of the management.

Key Question - Does anyone have a handle for the management for Admiralty [?][?][?]
If not we need to find out.

Cheers [B)][}:)]





Tricha

I have emailed the company asking for ADY management & background to be included on the website & will post any reply i get.

I am certainly happy with the mix of skills & experience on the board & Phillip Thomas seems useful enough, other than that i have no idea.

I would like to think, anyone viewing these posts would do there own research & come to there own decisions.

I am aware some posters follow your picks, & god help anyone following me...jokes :D

We have ADY & GDM in common, not sure if anything else

[Scuffer]

Hi Tricha no need to apologise, just a few crossed wires, it was never my intention to upset anyone. I am of the opinion like Shasta that ADY is a buy at any price under 30 cents and I will be in for more as soon as my finances allow.
P.S. I liked the colours

[bear]

Regarding management i was't convinced of their abilities end 2004 / early 2005 and hence i just traded this pup. Each seemingly good announcement was somehow tarnished by poor delivery.

Seems that they have been working hard lately and now happy to hold for the longer term. Management appear to have finally got things sorted

bear

[tricha]

Bear - "target price anywhere between 132c to 244c as per recent valuation report"

Hopefully your valuation bears fruit, good things take time. It's amazing how over time companies can change, sometimes for the better.
Realising this change is the key.

Bear - "Seems that they have been working hard lately and now happy to hold for the longer term. Management appear to have finally got things sorted"

Thanks for that Bear, yes strong management is the key this this one[:p]

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[Scuffer]

Somehow I don't see this co. getting the Scuffer Green bicycle frame award, what do ya think Shasta!

[shasta]

I got a reply from ADY that my request had been received & they will be in touch.

Unless your bikes need lithium components then probably not!

[tricha]

Scuffer Green bicycle frame award

Got to be on the cards, power assisted and with none other than a lithium battery ;)

P.S thats if theres enough to go around.

[Ttops]

quote:Originally posted by Scuffer

I am of the opinion like Shasta that ADY is a buy at any price under 30 cents and I will be in for more as soon as my finances allow.

Just hit 29.5 :) Heading for 33c?

[bullebak]

33c to 35c I was told, maybe tomorrow with new support at 28c

[Scuffer]

quote:Originally posted by tricha

Scuffer Green bicycle frame award

Got to be on the cards, power assisted and with none other than a lithium battery ;)

P.S thats if theres enough to go around.
Tricha The green bicycle frame award is a joke from Shasta and myself about the burgerfuel shares see the thread on the sharetrader NZX the only thing about ADY is its got my green light.:)

[Tok3n]

Is 30c a new intraday day record?

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by Tok3n

Is 30c a new intraday day record?

According to my chart you have to go back to March 1995 to see a price that high.

[shasta]

I'm up 40% on ADY in a month, & if it's heading into the 30's with this kind of support we mightn't stay in there long.

Very happy ADY holder...:D

[Scuffer]

Been out all day checking on my new signings for my soccer team glad to hear the good news shouldn't we be in the roaring forties here in NZ

[Ttops]

quote:Originally posted by bullebak

33c to 35c I was told, maybe tomorrow with new support at 28c

Looking good for 35c with the lack of sellers including me :D

[lewinsky]

Does scuffer = sir alec fergusson?

And yes I'm holding in for the ride, looking good.

[Scuffer]

What an insult Scuffer does not = Sir Alex ferguson I'm way too good looking.

Looks like people are starting to see the potential in ADY, the big boys are moving in, a real shame I wanted more at my original buy in price fat chance of that now, oh well onwards and upwards.

[Dazza]

30 cents ppl 30 cents :D

close on or above 30 and ill jump for joy :D

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by Dazza

30 cents ppl 30 cents :D

close on or above 30 and ill jump for joy :D


How's 30.5c than Dazza? :D

[Dazza]

Shasta man its great :D up 10% on todays ann. company is on track:D

u loving NZO ? finally afta 2 years of holding this dog im making some bling lol





RINCON PILOT PLANT COMMENCES CONSTRUCTION
LITHIUM PRICES INCREASE AGAIN IN MAY 2007
The Board of Directors are pleased to announce that construction has commenced on our
1:100 scale pilot plant at the Rincon Salar. Some of the key pieces of equipment have been
manufactured and are ready for installation when the facility is built.
The local mud brick makers have been busy making mudbricks which will line the walls of the
facility to ensure it fits in with the local environment and provide excellent insulation. By
employing local manufacturers we are making a significant contribution to their economy.
Lithium Carbonate Price continues to Rise
The graph set out below shows the increase in the price of lithium carbonate being imported
into Japan. The average price from Argentina and Chile rose 4% month on month. The price
from the USA jumped 54% month on month on 171 tonnes of imported Lithium Carbonate
reflecting either higher quality eg. 99.5% or the current trend of prices increases due to
increased USA consumption is impacting the price.
The Lithium Carbonate market supply still remains tight which is partially reflected in the graph
where prices for the various grades are trending up. Chinese demand for lithium also seems
to be on the increase even though they have their own supply of 5,000 tonnes per annum.
Admiralty seeks to closely monitor price developments as it starts to negotiate long term
supply agreements later this year. Admiralty is still targeting Sept 2008 to commence
production and reach full production of 17,000 tonnes of lithium product by middle of 2009.

In June 2007, the Directors of the Company visited the key executives of the firm A123
Systems (www.a123systems.com) based in Boston. A123 are the leaders in automotive
lithium ion battery manufacture in the USA. We were given an update on the growth potential
of their “plug-in” lithium battery and the possible growth potential for lithium carbonate demand
should their 20 watt battery be adopted as the standard for plug in electric and hybrid electric
vehicles.

[Damo79]

34 cents!! I like it a lot!! :D[8D]:D

There has to be a consolidation somewhere.... doesn't there? [:p] But it just keeps on going. Not that I'm complaining ;)

[bullebak]

Looks like we're seeing a bit of that now (from 34.5c to 33.5c). But the demand seems unusually strong so it may not retrace by much.

[Dazza]

consolidation prob around this price

i had predicted the flag to target around 32-3cents

man thats 2/2 for flag formation predictions for me
i shoulda brought more at 26!! since i knew theyd have a good chance to go to 32 bah!

oh wellz ima happy

next retrace 50% fib and ill have my order there

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by Dazza

Shasta man its great :D up 10% on todays ann. company is on track:D

u loving NZO ? finally afta 2 years of holding this dog im making some bling lol





RINCON PILOT PLANT COMMENCES CONSTRUCTION
LITHIUM PRICES INCREASE AGAIN IN MAY 2007
The Board of Directors are pleased to announce that construction has commenced on our
1:100 scale pilot plant at the Rincon Salar. Some of the key pieces of equipment have been
manufactured and are ready for installation when the facility is built.
The local mud brick makers have been busy making mudbricks which will line the walls of the
facility to ensure it fits in with the local environment and provide excellent insulation. By
employing local manufacturers we are making a significant contribution to their economy.
Lithium Carbonate Price continues to Rise
The graph set out below shows the increase in the price of lithium carbonate being imported
into Japan. The average price from Argentina and Chile rose 4% month on month. The price
from the USA jumped 54% month on month on 171 tonnes of imported Lithium Carbonate
reflecting either higher quality eg. 99.5% or the current trend of prices increases due to
increased USA consumption is impacting the price.
The Lithium Carbonate market supply still remains tight which is partially reflected in the graph
where prices for the various grades are trending up. Chinese demand for lithium also seems
to be on the increase even though they have their own supply of 5,000 tonnes per annum.
Admiralty seeks to closely monitor price developments as it starts to negotiate long term
supply agreements later this year. Admiralty is still targeting Sept 2008 to commence
production and reach full production of 17,000 tonnes of lithium product by middle of 2009.

In June 2007, the Directors of the Company visited the key executives of the firm A123
Systems (www.a123systems.com) based in Boston. A123 are the leaders in automotive
lithium ion battery manufacture in the USA. We were given an update on the growth potential
of their “plug-in” lithium battery and the possible growth potential for lithium carbonate demand
should their 20 watt battery be adopted as the standard for plug in electric and hybrid electric
vehicles.


ADY still strong today & yes finally my NZO's are moving, with an av cost of 88c (god knows how long ago that was), seeing it up 40% has achieved in nearly 2 years what ADY has in under a month!

[clearasmud]

Yes I'm not willing to trade ADY atm.
Have a nice parcel.[:p]

[p0ssy]

Bought 150k of these today at 33c. Looks a winner. Fingers crossed. Have done very well with another Fe stock recently, FWLO, and hope to repeat the experience, it being such a pleasant one.

Good luck to all holders.

[Dazza]

p0ssy the infamous millionaire from aum/cdu

nice to c u onboard :P

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by Dazza

p0ssy the infamous millionaire from aum/cdu

nice to c u onboard :P



Lets hope p0ssy has the midas touch on this one too!

I wish ADY would bother to answer my email...:(

[tricha]

Game on!
TIAX Licenses High-Performance Cathode Material to CVRD Inco for Portable Power Applications-New Technology Overcomes Safety Issues of Lithium Nickelate to Offer Increased Battery Runtime in Laptops, Cellular Phones, and Other Consumer Electronics
Business Wire July 10, 2007


CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Jul 10, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- TIAX, a technology processing(SM) company and leader in clean energy, chemicals, and appliance technologies, announced today that it has granted an exclusive license covering its high-energy, high-performance cathode material to CVRD Inco Limited for use in portable power applications. CVRD Inco is part of one of the world's top diversified mining companies and a leading producer of nickel.

The TIAX cathode is a lithium-nickel material that achieves 40 percent higher capacity than the current industry standard cathode material used in lithium-ion batteries. TIAX has manipulated the crystal structure of lithium-nickel to deliver superior capacity, excellent safety, long cycle life, and high performance over a broad range of power and temperature.
"This agreement with CVRD Inco is the result of a major technology development effort at TIAX and a significant contract for our company," said TIAX CEO and Founder, Kenan Sahin. "Consumer demand for smaller and lighter portable products has created a clear need for improved batteries, and CVRD Inco, with its well deserved reputation in the battery industry, is a great partner to help bring this technology to market."

The TIAX lithium-nickel cathode material represents a critical breakthrough in battery technology. The nickelate class of lithium-ion materials has long held the promise of significant benefits in energy and power, but until now, the associated safety risks have made these materials inappropriate for consumer applications.

During a multi-year, multi-million dollar development effort, TIAX adapted quantum mechanical modeling techniques to stabilize the lithium-nickel crystal structure. As a result, the TIAX cathode material has an excellent safety profile, making it possible for consumers to access the performance benefits of this class of materials for the first time.

"We are pleased to commercialize TIAX's new material technology using our process and marketing expertise and to offer battery industry customers a new standard for combined performance and safety," said Peter Goudie, Executive Vice President, Marketing of CVRD Inco.

The specific terms of the agreement were not made public. TIAX is one of the largest independent R&D centers for lithium-ion batteries and will continue to work closely with CVRD Inco to support its product development activities. TIAX will also continue development of next-generation nickel-class cathode materials.

In addition to portable applications, TIAX has adapted its material for implementation in the hybrid electric vehicle market where high power capability, high energy density, excellent safety, and long cycle life are important. TIAX has begun marketing licenses to its material for automotive applications.

About TIAX:

TIAX is a technology processing(SM) company that transforms emerging innovations into robust technology platforms ready for hand-off. Leveraging internal technologies, laboratories, and links to external innovation sources, TIAX collaborates with customers in industry and government to create new business opportunities and achieve mission objectives. TIAX (www.TIAXLLC.com) is ISO 9001 certified, with offices in Massachusetts and California.

About CVRD Inco:

CVRD Inco is a leading producer of nickel and nickel specialty products and an important producer of copper, cobalt and precious metals. Based in Toronto, Canada, CVRD Inco is a wholly owned subsidiary of Companhia Vale do Rio Doce ("CVRD") (NYSE: RIO

[shasta]

Tricha

PT emailed me back re my question on the management not showing in the website.

I received a very good explanation & am more than satified with the management & my investment in ADY, & will be looking to average up.

Check out page 4... http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/presentation/9bf31c7ff062936a96d3c8bd1f8f2ff3.pdf

[bullebak]

It seems that anyone trying to trade this stock does so at his peril. I think that's because p0ssy is on board, he's buying up everything!

Another good drill report.

[Ttops]

In at 26.7c average thanks to Shasta and tricha. [:X] :D Reduced my NZ:KFL and looked to Aus for a share for the future. This fitted the bill nicely. One I can understand the uses and prospects. I must confess that drilling report means very little though. Onwards and upwards at your leisure. Must admit it really pays to read ST. Thanks again you two. [^]

[shasta]

Shasta wants to do a little dance... ...
ADY @ 38c makes Shasta very :D:D:D

I bought in early June @ 21c, easiest 80% i've ever made!

Dazza - How you like dem apples? :D

:D[8D][:p]<<<<<<Shasta can't stop smiling...

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by Treetops

In at 26.7c average thanks to Shasta and tricha. [:X] :D Reduced my NZ:KFL and looked to Aus for a share for the future. This fitted the bill nicely. One I can understand the uses and prospects. I must confess that drilling report means very little though. Onwards and upwards at your leisure. Must admit it really pays to read ST. Thanks again you two. [^]


Good to see you on this side of ST, Treetops, we saw a great run in KFL & looks like history will repeat itself...

ADY & NZO have made this an exceptional day for me...

[Viking]

same here~ I recently added ADY, LYC and NZO to my portfolio~ ADY and NZO is doing incredibly well these coupole of days~ [^][^] But I can't really say that for my MCR and LYC though ~[:o)]

[shasta]

Viking i've looked & looked at LYC & could never work out an entry price & have seen it climb ever since, you might have missed the first wave, but Rare Earths like Lithium are still to have there day in the sun.

Those shares you have mentioned above are all top class!

[Viking]

Yes, Shasta ~ I definately missed the first wave of LYC~ it was due to my over consideration and study on this stock... or actually more about the Rare Earth Element which I know so little about.

ADY on the other hand is doing well, though I also consider my entry to be late~ as I was made aware of this stock and looking close at it since around MAR/APR but I am happy with the information that I obtained and is very comfortable with its future. Now fingers crossed and hopefully hang tight for the ride [^]

Disc: Hold ADY, BHP, LYC, MCR
Just Sold RIO and ZFX

[Dazza]

shasta!!!!!!

wahoooooooooooot :D

100% nearly , come on come on another 10% tomorrow and im there

man it feels great that my TA worked muahaha

off course fundamentals also was important in my decision to buy this puppy.

LYC?? - is that REE?
if so .. ARU is my fav muahahahah

[slam]

LYC Thread
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=22833&whichpage=5
Love it, long time;)
Slam

[OutToLunch]

A very nice performance by ADY lately. It's been a long wait but over time we've seen ADY's potential increase, and its risks fall, as the Fe and Li projects have been developed. And what perfect timing, with global booms in the prices of both metals. Finally the market has started to wake up to what has been a screaming buy for a long time!

Plenty more news to come: Japonesa Fe drilling results, JORC estimates, new Fe contracts to be announced soon (and in a bull market for Fe), ditto for Li later this year on top of rising Li demand. It's all coming together very nicely. [8D][8D][8D]

[bullebak]

quote:Originally posted by Dazza

shasta!!!!!!

100% nearly , come on come on another 10% tomorrow and im there



Does that mean you will sell dazza??? Open expected at 40 cents...

[STRAT]

Japonesita-Chillean Veijo Drilling Results in. Another big day me thinks :D

[ScrappyO]

OH YEAH 44.5

[Dazza]

waahoooooooooooooooot

100%+ gains in lEss than a month WAHOOOOOOOOT

macdunks timeline theory blah blah, this is for him

this certainly has performed exceptionally well in such a small time :D

bull --> no im not selling :D i have 50cents target for end of this year

and $1 when the iron out put has increased and just before the lithium exports so $1 say mid 2008

[Dazza]

its actually quite frightening to see it go up so much....

id prefer small jumps daily

but 10% daily is wow :D

[bullebak]

quote:Originally posted by Dazza

its actually quite frightening to see it go up so much....

id prefer small jumps daily

but 10% daily is wow :D


I was about the press the sell button at 44.5c believing it just has to retrace somewhat, when the data stream froze. Would have bought back in at 40-40.5c. $8K always comes in handy.

I have frequent problems with my ETrade pro. Yeah, restart and then it's too late.

[Drunk_Russian]

Darn it.

To think that I was quibbling over 22 cents a few weeks ago and missed out on topping up.

Still, my first parcel at 15c avg helps to numb the pain a bit.

I intend to hold until 2009 when lithium production is underway, so heres hoping for a 10 bagger by then.

[Scuffer]

Hey Drunk Russian I was the same as you but am up 107% they are going up too fast for me to buy in,I will have to sit back and enjoy the ride, but very tempted to buy more, would have to sell something which is what I should have done 2 or 3 weeks back, kicking my self when I should have been kicking this can.Thanks to Shasta an Tricha for there posts helped me decide on this can of caviar.

[shasta]

Your welcome Scuffer

Theres plenty more in ADY yet, & still more room at the trough for a few more snouts!:D

I love coming home & seeing a sea of green in the portfolio!:D

[WASL]

Certainly very good run.

I bought some more recently and am now at average of $0.25/sh.

TRICHA - do you have any gossip (local knowledge?) as to what is happening to Sons of Gwalia lithium operations.

good luck as always

Disclosure ADA,ADY,ANZ,AAX,BHP,BKL,BXB,CSG,CSR,DJS,HSK,HIL,KA R,MAH,MCU,NMS,TSI,TCL,WEB,WES,WOW,

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by bullebak


quote:Originally posted by Dazza

its actually quite frightening to see it go up so much....

id prefer small jumps daily

but 10% daily is wow :D


I was about the press the sell button at 44.5c believing it just has to retrace somewhat, when the data stream froze. Would have bought back in at 40-40.5c. $8K always comes in handy.

I have frequent problems with my ETrade pro. Yeah, restart and then it's too late.





I know we jokingly told Scuffer we'd sell some at 40c, im afraid Shasta will renege on that, i'm not selling any for all the tea in China!

4 days ago i was 40% up, & now at 97.6%, must be due a wee retrace early next week, she's fairly overheated looking at the RSI (well over 80).

Could slip back to the 38c level, before the next leg up to 50c ;)

[p0ssy]

Nice 13k in 48 hours. Nice to see everyone doing well.

Ave a good weekend.

[jeremy b]

Got some of these yesterday at 37.5c.It's only early but the ride looks fun.

[bear]

good week for ADYers ... significant moves and didn't last long in the 30c range

pretty solid volume so retracement (i also think is likely) should be short lived ...a few days of consolidation at this level will enable a solid push towards 50c

the big questions are

where will it be at years end price wise?
when will it hit the $1+ initial valuations?

there will have to be a longish period of consolidation sometime in the future when activities on the ground catch up with price (and expectation) - when this will happen and at what price is the big question.

not selling anytime soon and may add on retracements (next week perhaps)

bear

[shasta]

Bear

We know where ADY is heading when the Lithium is online starting June 2008 & in full production early 2009 & thats closer to it's $1.20 valuation.

What we need to consider is ADY has 800m shares on issue & at 40c = MC$320m.(is slightly more than this)

If it has say FY earnings of $40m or eps of 5c then at a P/E ratio of say 10, then 50c is fair value.

These numbers can be massaged to fit any argument, but remember a $1.20 valuation values ADY at around a billion dollars!

When the Lithium is at full production (& the Li price is likely to increase short term), then perhaps it may be worth that.

I'm not sure where it will go, but IMO around the 50c mark would be a good consolidation level, until we get more JORC resources etc.

It's gone up nearly 100% in 5 weeks afer doing nothing for ages...

The RSI shows its well overheated & due a breather which mid/long term is healthy.

I'm not looking at selling any until it hits $1.;)

[bear]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Bear

What we need to consider is ADY has 800m shares on issue & at 40c = MC$320m.(is slightly more than this)

....
These numbers can be massaged to fit any argument, but remember a $1.20 valuation values ADY at around a billion dollars!



Shasta ....this has always been a major factor to consider for me in this one as every cent adds $8m to the MC which needs to be justified at some stage.

still we all know where we're heading ($1+) its just a matter of when we get there.

bear

[tricha]

WASL - "TRICHA - do you have any gossip (local knowledge?) as to what is happening to Sons of Gwalia"

Sons of Gwalia Tantalum and Spodumene ( up to 6% Lithium ) have been bought by an investment company

Resource Capital Funds: Contact RCF
The Resource Capital Funds are private equity funds with mandates to make investments in development ... Resource Capital Funds: Denver Office Address: 1400 Sixteenth Street: Directions from Denver ...

www.resourcecapitalfunds.com/rcf_cont0.html ·



Cheers [B)][}:)]

[tricha]

Bear -"the big questions are

where will it be at years end price wise?
when will it hit the $1+ initial valuations? "

As stated a "World Class Resource" and with Lithium being the metal of the future"

Thats the million dollar question Bear, so I'm going to ride out the up's and downs like u and wait patiently till the Lithium gets mining.

I'm happy to stick to your 1st post pricing on the subject Bear;)

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[WASL]

[quote]
Sons of Gwalia Tantalum and Spodumene ( up to 6% Lithium ) have been bought by an investment company Resource Capital Funds

Thanks TRICHA

Given that SoG were a large world lithium player, these guys might be in a position to give the Li market a nudge. (????)

Good luck as always


WASL

[tricha]

WASl - "Given that SoG were a large world lithium player, these guys might be in a position to give the Li market a nudge. (????)"

No way in the world, they can only concentrate to about 6%, they tried building a Lithium Carbonate plant to purify it ten years a go, at a cost of 17 million and it failed miserable :(

Before I bought ADY I reseached Lithium and for all possible Lithium players in Australia and could only find ADY [:p]

Admiralty Resources will produce high grade Lithium very cheaply and the outcome could well be a multi billion dollar company.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[shasta]

Lets not forget they have a few bags full of Iron Ore in the staff teamroom to boot...:D

[Scuffer]

I bet there are some reluctant sellers on this thread if Iwas to ask for them to sell at 40cents like they said they would, who would have thought these sort of gains would have come about so quickly, not me I was expecting to pick more up next month at 30cents or less.

[shasta]

Scuffer my next sell target would be $1.40, happy to do an off market transfer, any takers? :D

[clearasmud]

Guys PT was suggesting more like pe20-25 for the lithium business.
BTW we have 946m fully dilluted.

Clearasmud

[OutToLunch]

The figure I've seen doing the rounds (quoted from Phil's 'back of the envelope calcs' on the TS site) is for fully diluted eps of around US10c in 2009, or say AUD12c give or take. Applying a conservative p/e of 10 gives us roughly $1.20 with plenty of scope for a higher share price.

A higher share price can be achieved through higher production/prices for Fe and Li (both of which look likely at this stage), or a higher share valuation as ADY's growing revenue streams becomes better appreciated by the wider market. If the p/e was eventually re-rated to 15, then the sp becomes $1.80 for example. Or, taking it the other way, a very low p/e of 6 still gives us a sp of 72c which is nearly twice what we have at the moment. Medium- to long-term downside looks very limited, even after the strong run of late.

Holding and smiling.. :):D[8D]

[Scuffer]

Shasta $1.40 come on buddy ya told me you would sell to me at a cheap price I've gotta have a margin when I sell them back to you at a $1.60, I'll even throw a bike frame in you can pick ya colour,as long as the Burgerfuel punters haven't snapped them all up but they usually just want the green ones.:D:D:D

[shasta]

Scuffer

Outtolunch is on the money, theres plenty of upside in PT's own valuation of ADY.

Increase in Fe & Li prices & selling at market rates, increased production, currency falls etc.

Best just to hold long term & top up on retraces back to previous support levels...

[Sunshine007]

Copied from Juk's post on HC:
"Toyota To Boost JV Output Capacity For NiMH Batteries By 50%
14 July 2007
The Nikkei reports that Toyota Motor plans to build a new factory on the site of Panasonic EV Energy Co—its battery joint venture with Matsush1ta Electric Industrial Co.—to boost the annual production capacity for NiMH cells used in the automaker’s hybrid vehicles by 50%.

The new plant will increase the output capacity of Shizuoka Prefecture-based Panasonic EV Energy Co. to a level sufficient to produce NiMH battery packs for 750,000 vehicles per year.

Panasonic EV Energy will also manufacture lithium-ion batteries for future Toyota hybrids."
Note the last sentence!

[Scuffer]

The futures so bright I've gotta wear shades.[8D][8D][8D]

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by Scuffer

The futures so bright I've gotta wear shades.[8D][8D][8D]


ADY will pay for my dental work & keep me teeth nice & shiny :D

[Bobbyvee]

I worry about the euphoria without great substance in the short term

[Scuffer]

Stop worrying put ya sunglasses on[8D] and get ya teeth:D into ADY worry if ya filled ya boots, don't put all ya eggs in one basket and then ya won't be filling ya pants[:0]

[Viking]

Funny Shasta mentioned about dental job~
I just came back from a dental appointment this morning~ :D
although I got on the ADY boat little late, still they are going to be enough for my dental work~ ;):D

[bullebak]

quote:Originally posted by Bobbyvee

I worry about the euphoria without great substance in the short term


I agree with Bobbyvee, too much euphoria with or without substance. Let's keep our cool and have realistic expectations or it may go the same way as some others.

Those who spend their money before it arrives risk going into debt.

[OutToLunch]

Agree totally. My 'euphoria detector' is running red hot and a short-term fall is almost certain. Still very comfortable with the medium to long term though.

Having said that, if I ever hear a taxi driver espouse the glories of holding ADY shares I'll be bailing! [:0]

[Scuffer]

The sp will go higher than what it is today in the long term but your right it will drop and the profit takers will be in and out short term as for the taxi drivers give them a tulip and wish them luck.

[bullebak]

I am going to post a rumor on hotcopper saying that a buyer of 100m shares will be coming in today...

[clearasmud]

I think ADY will go to 65-70c over the next few weeks.
my thoughts only.

[Scuffer]

If they hit those prices I want my 40cent share allocation from you guys today.

[OutToLunch]

quote:Originally posted by clearasmud

I think ADY will go to 65-70c over the next few weeks.
my thoughts only.


Crikey if it does that so soon I might be tempted to take out my starting capital and free carry the balance...

[OutToLunch]

quote:Originally posted by bullebak

I am going to post a rumor on hotcopper saying that a buyer of 100m shares will be coming in today...



:D:D Look at them scramble!

[clearasmud]

quote:Originally posted by OutToLunch


quote:Originally posted by clearasmud

I think ADY will go to 65-70c over the next few weeks.
my thoughts only.


Crikey if it does that so soon I might be tempted to take out my starting capital and free carry the balance...


So would I mate.
it will have to be euphoric bid up fuelled by news.

[bullebak]

One trader and adviser tells me that he took his profits and that it is fully priced for now. Will be happy to buy back in mid 30s.

I did the same early today, only small part of holding left.

[shasta]

Todays healthy retrace should be seen as a good thing, as was much needed.

Am interested to see where it finds support & settles, after a few anns last week.

Agree ADY has run a little too hard, too soon.

Of course we can all benefit by topping up at these discounted levels sub 40c.

[bullebak]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Todays healthy retrace should be seen as a good thing, as was much needed.

Am interested to see where it finds support & settles, after a few anns last week.

Agree ADY has run a little too hard, too soon.

Of course we can all benefit by topping up at these discounted levels sub 40c.


I am holding my hands up at 36 for now, maybe less tomorrow.

[WASL]

Iron ore now - lithium soon. This is a long term stock - have fun with your day trading but my advice is buy and hold for at least 2 years.
The recent price drop obviously influenced by the new shares issued. Refer to ASX announcements today. Note also more options maturing in 2009.

Regards and

Good luck as always


WASL

[shasta]

2 million odd shares over 800 - 900m isnt a biggy.

I'm not trading ADY & happy to hold & buy on the dips

[WASL]

I agree Shastra - but it might worry the novices (some of whom are buying and selling)

Regards


WASL

[shasta]

Nothing to worry about though WASL ;)

ADY's daily turnover over the last week or so is between 21 - 33m shares.

To put it in perspective, todays ann re dillution is approx 10% of daily turnover & < 0.5% of the total shares on issue.

When theres any trouble on the horizon with ADY you will hear it first on this thread!:D

[bullebak]

quote:Originally posted by WASL

I agree Shastra - but it might worry the novices (some of whom are buying and selling)

Regards


WASL


WASL, let's not start implying that people who buy and sell are novices. In this context I consider your post a personal insult.

If you have a problem with others making a buck, tell us outright instead of implying it. Nobody is rediculing you for not selling and buying back in.

[shasta]

Bullebak

I was tempted to sell down half when my entry price had doubled, the trouble with ADY, is that it's not a stock you want to be out of for long...

So instead i watched it hit an intra day high of 45c, & drop to 41.5c on the close yesterday only for it to drop another 4.5c today.

Anyone locking in some profits on Friday morning would have avoided the 38% drop in 2 days from it's highest point.

Chartwise though today's drop was required to fill the gap...

If i had more available funds, i'd be buying ADY at these levels, not selling [:p]

[bullebak]

Shasta,

Like many others and as you agree, a retrace was inevitable. I failed to sell on Friday due to a technical problem but if I had, and bought back in at 40c I would have been happy.

Having sold most early today I expect to be able to buy back in at about 5c difference. There is a risk of course, but one I am willing to take for a gain of $10K (in addition to the increased SP value from my original purchases).

I intend to hold medium/long term. I may also trade medium/long term. There are others on this thread who traded ADY also, and why not.

Like CIY which everyone was wrapped about for years, if one had come in at around $4 and only held the stock the benefits would primarely have been the dividends. Having traded the stock as well, the dividends were just some extra.

Look at AGS, WASL might say that all those who sold around $2.80 are novices... it was expected to go much higher (like $5). Well it might and probably will but it's not there now.

Anyone here is allowed to invest and to trade. Even both.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by bullebak


quote:Originally posted by WASL

I agree Shastra - but it might worry the novices (some of whom are buying and selling)

Regards


WASL


WASL, let's not start implying that people who buy and sell are novices. In this context I consider your post a personal insult.

If you have a problem with others making a buck, tell us outright instead of implying it. Nobody is rediculing you for not selling and buying back in.


The old hog could be wrong, but it doesn't appear from this hog's perspective the WASL was implying that traders are somehow novices.

But there is no doubt that some people who are making their buying and selling decisions based on the discussion on this and similar fora will be spooked by sudden unexplained slides in the market value of their positions, no?

Come on bullebak, from what you write in your posts, your skin should be thicker than you are showing it to be ... it takes a bit of bottle to be playing around with $80-$100k size transactions.

No offense intended bullebak ... regular readers will know that the hog is pretty jolly with most and only gets a bit bored with the likes of BRICKS and similar ;) Even MacDunk and his timeline make amusing reading on slow, cloudy days of the grey winter months ...

[bullebak]

Hi muddy and smelly warthog, where have you been? :)

I repent! I promise to better myself and be more thick-skinned! I forgot to tell WASL that my family relies on income from investments and trading I do for fun and a little extra. And so I can buy things and machinery for our hobby farm.

Nothing is done on the basis of what anyone says, but generally posts here help to get the big picture. And yes, I always do my own research and don't rely on "advice" from anyone.

Some people don't seem to like day traders... [?][?][?]

[warthog]

Some people always find reasons to dislike other people.

MacDunk because he's Scottish and likes tea-ladies, for having a seemingly-perfect time-line based investment system, and never seems to lose.

Shasta and others for unabashed ramping blended with interesting insight (which is which?).

Snoopy for his unwavering loyalty to sinking ships (some manage to bob up to the surface now and then).

Phaedrus for clearing the mist, and being correct more often than not (something he would be proud of).

BRICKS for not managing to string more than one word together in succession that makes comprehensive, grammatical or contextual sense, and dissing people for reasons (s)he cannot express.

And Warthog for, amongst other things, just being really muddy and smelly ...

The hog could go on, but it would be (even more) boring.

Great guns bullebak for making a living out of the market.

[duncan macgregor]

WARTHOG My pig swilling friend whats wrong with tea ladies?. You got to be nice to them to let you know what the company is really up to. Its nearly time for our annual sat night SH*T fight in the cow shed a big bucket of swill coming your way if you attend. I would think that a hog would make an ideal trader. Hogs have thick skins, hogs dont sweat, infact hogs being greedy and gluttons, would make you an ideal trader. Macdunk

[warthog]

All very well regarding skins and sweating MacDunk, but you won't have seen a greedy and gluttonous phacochoerus africanus - they are much leaner than your standard, run-of-the-mill sus domesticus ...

[shasta]

Meanwhile back in the jungle, ADY bounced nicely to end the day up 3c to 40c...

Wartie - ADY does not need to be ramped, a blind man (or woman) would have seen the value in this.

Some people just can't see the forest for the trees!

[warthog]

Shasta - you forgot about blind hogs ...

[WASL]

It appears I have offended some of the members; certainly bullebak, warthog, and possibly more who did not post their thoughts.

Please be assured that no offence was meant.

The original post could have been better worded but I do believe in this market there are a lot of uninformed, new persons trading shares. Some of the hype has not yet got to the "taxi driver tip" status yet but we seem not far off this. I am old enough to remember the 1969 boom.

Clearly subscribers to chat rooms such as Sharetrader and HC are NOT uninformed and, while they may be new to the share market, they have probable discarded the novice tag already.

Having said that, I am pleased with ADY's progress today.

Regards and

Good luck as always

WASL

[bullebak]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Meanwhile back in the jungle, ADY bounced nicely to end the day up 3c to 40c...

Wartie - ADY does not need to be ramped, a blind man (or woman) would have seen the value in this.

Some people just can't see the forest for the trees!


Hmmm.. a subtle crack at others... must make you feel really good! And no, a blind man (or woman) would not have seen the value as he (or she) would have to rely on the spoken work. There are no blind men (or women) here [:o)].

And maybe it might make you green of envy, but I am back in today (I have not really been out altogether).

WASL's apologies accepted! I remember the 1969 boom too, I used to spend every day at the trading gallery! Those days were fun.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by WASL

It appears I have offended some of the members; certainly bullebak, warthog, and possibly more who did not post their thoughts.

The hog was definitely not offended.

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by bullebak


quote:Originally posted by shasta

Meanwhile back in the jungle, ADY bounced nicely to end the day up 3c to 40c...

Wartie - ADY does not need to be ramped, a blind man (or woman) would have seen the value in this.

Some people just can't see the forest for the trees!


Hmmm.. a subtle crack at others... must make you feel really good! And no, a blind man (or woman) would not have seen the value as he (or she) would have to rely on the spoken work. There are no blind men (or women) here [:o)].

And maybe it might make you green of envy, but I am back in today (I have not really been out altogether).

WASL's apologies accepted! I remember the 1969 boom too, I used to spend every day at the trading gallery! Those days were fun.




I was referring to the ADY $1.20 broker valuation ...

From State One
Admiralty Resources Ltd (ADY) - Strong Buy
Project Overview
_ Admiralty is primarily a lithium producer as of next year with forecast 20,000t of lithium brine production from the Rincon Salar alkaline salt lake in Argentina coming on stream in late 2007, with mine infrastructure under construction this quarter. Evaporation pond construction will allow pumping from the bore field, the brine then to evaporate to a salt concentrate, processed into specialty compounds including, lithium salts, soda ash and potassium chloride.
_ Lithium production from alkaline brines is, according to guidance from the company, likely to continue for a decade or more, with production rate most affected by environmental factors acting upon evaporation. Further production from Rincon Salar is certain geologically, though the rate is controlled by climate, for which predictions beyond a decade are sketchy.
_ A forward sales agreement on lithium salts, at US$24,000/t has been placed for specialty specifications over a 2,000tpa portion of production. The remainder will be sold into the open market. The 10% of production forward sold at the higher price is a US$48M revenue stream, with the remaining 90% of production of~18,000tpa providing a US$100M revenue stream at US$5,500/t.
- Admiralty Resources has 49% of the Santa Barbara iron ore project in Chile. Admiralty and its partner have begun shipping the first shipments of a 940,000t contract to Wuhan Iron and Steel Company, China, worth around US$65 million to the joint venture, or A$40 million to Admiralty. Rates for FY08 are projected to be 1.8Mtpa.
_ A recent off take agreement for 1.2 million tons per annum of a 50 million ton stockpile underpins growth from the current 1.8Mtpa to a potential 5Mtpa of iron ore sales. Lack of forward contracts is not seen as a significant risk in light of high demand from China.
Further non-stockpile ore resources of 33.6Mt @ 23.5% magnetite iron exist within the JV, which can be extracted to produce high-iron low-phosphorus magnetite concentrate.
Opinion
This financial year Admiralty is set to generate around A$24M in iron ore revenue via shipment of ~240,000 tonnes of ore, with profit margins of A$45 per tonne of iron ore. This represents around A$10M in profits for FY07 on 4 months production, valuing Admiralty at a PER of 9.1x on the current share price. Our prediction for FY08 iron ore sales should see production at the 1.85Mtpa rate generate A$83M in profits to give a forecast EPS of 9c per share. Early 2008, assuming lithium production ramps up as planned, FY08 should see 6 months of lithium production come through, an A$80M-plus revenue stream. With a predicted 75% profit margin this represents $65M profit or 6c per share earnings. Taking this into account, on current share prices, FY08 earn

[Tech Step]

For the traders that are buying/selling ADY short term it looks good for a sell now as an inside bar has formed with todays trading range being totally encompassed by yesterdays trading range. This typically represents a balance between buyers and sellers which is followed by a reversal in trend.

For all the charters out there would you be selling now and hoping for a slight retrace and then buying back in?

cheers.

[Tech Step]

ps: I forgot to mention the exhaustion bar on friday....

[Scuffer]

Anyone can see that there is upside to this one whether its for short term gain trading or sitting back and watching the rise, well done to the ones who profited from the panic the other day some will have got out and some will still be trying to get back in, I sat back had a beer and went snowboarding and I was at peace with the world, onwards and upwards.

[bullebak]

Out again and in again... 2 to 3 cents make one month's salary for most people.

Shasta, hope you don't have a problem with that... [}:)]

[Tech Step]

yep.

I dumped on opening at 40c and bought back in at 37.5c for a days wages.

If only I could do that every day I would be earning as much as the average tradesman.....

cheers ADY.

[bullebak]

Well done, Tech Step. It's really hard earned money having to stick one's face in front of the screen with all the health risks associated! (You know... radiation, blindness, hairloss, madness and whatever else we haven't been told about... oh yes anxiety!)

But today I was out of town from 11 until after trading, spending some time with wify instead of the monitor.

At least we can afford another box of kibbles for the cat.

[shasta]

Well done Bullebak/Tech Step

Take profits & run, or sell, wait & buy them back cheaper whatever!

I'm happy that others do well when i do too!

I am primarily a trader, but will be a net buyer of ADY over time.

[shasta]

Write up in the Australian today...

Worthy of a salute?
Tim Blue | July 19, 2007

Admiralty Resources (ADY) 37.5c

ADMIRALTY Resources is one of those happy travellers that sit astride not one but two hot commodities, iron ore and lithium - the latter used to run our mobile phones.

At 37.5c, the stock is close to its high, having quadrupled in six months on the back of progress in flogging iron ore from Brazil to China, and a pilot plant at Rincon Salar in Argentina to produce lithium carbonate.

Rarely has iron ore been in such demand. Macquarie Bank, Citigroup, JPMorgan and UBS have all revved up their forecasts for 2008, declaring iron ore prices will rise 10 per cent instead of falling 20 per cent as previously expected. It's up 120 per cent in four years.

Admiralty Resources started shipping iron ore to a Chinese steelmaker in April from stockpiles in South America, where it has a deal to buy 1.2 million tonnes of iron ore a year from a Chilean refiner.

Later it will mine its own ore, through its 49 per cent interest in Chilean miner Cia Minera Santa Barbara, which owns nine former iron ore mines in northern Chile which it plans to reopen.

Admiralty has the rights to build a port at Huasco Bay in Chile, only 60 kilometres from its mines at Japonesa, that would cost about $US30 million ($34 million) to build, including stockpile areas and 14 kilometres of road improvements.

The company is looking at its options for funding the new port, managing director Phillip Thomas has said. At 3.6 million tonnes a year, Admiralty would be a bigger iron ore producer than, say, Mount Gibson, but smaller than Portman, and may even get to produce up to 5 million tonnes a year if Thomas has his way.

Admiralty's share price might have leapt when the sales agreement was signed with Wuhan Iron and Steel. But mobile phones are here for the duration, and given what the pundits are saying about ore prices, Criterion would have to rate Admiralty as a speculative buy.

[bullebak]

Could it be starting to move up again already (40.5c)?

[clearasmud]

If it closes at 41c or close then the market is unwilling to discount this share significantly for the week.
Bullish imo.

[Scuffer]

I am still not selling don't want to miss out on not getting back in, most people are of the same frame of mind this week has proved it but it was starting to worry me the way the sp was rising I was waiting for the drop and when it came it steadied the whole thing so on and up from here.:)

[Halebop]

ADY is looking supported at 37+ cents. My money is on it coiling up for another run in the near term...
http://img292.imageshack.us/img292/6773/ady22jul07gifeh7.gif

[Scuffer]

Nice chart Halebop it verifies what i already knew thanks for posting it I appreciate your input. I agree with you this is coiled and ready to pounce even higher the weight is definitely behind it.:)

[ScrappyO]

Trading Halt

[Viking]

what's happening~~~~~~~

[Tok3n]

We request that you place Admiralty Resources in a trading halt. We request this
trading halt because of the following:
1. We are completing a final peer review of the JORC report on the resources of
the Rincon Salar which will impact the reserves of lithium and potassium
minerals available to the company compared to a previous inferred estimate.
2. We request this trading halt to remain in place until Wednesday 25 July 2007
or when the announcement is released to the ASX whichever is the earlier.
3. We are not aware of any reason why the trading halt should not be granted.
4. There is no other information that needs to be provided to support this
request. Executives and consultants are working on this document to have it
released as soon as practical.

[bullebak]

What we (ST members) want to know (of course) if the actual reserves are more or less than the previous inferred estimate... backdated to last friday of course and not released to the market. :)

[STRAT]

Trading Halts always make me nervous but going by fridays trading a good outcome should be expected

[Ttops]

quote:Originally posted by bullebak

What we (ST members) want to know (of course) if the actual reserves are more or less than the previous inferred estimate... backdated to last friday of course and not released to the market. :)

Being a bit of a dork in these matters a peer review of a Jork sounds decidely rude! Please explain.[:I]
Lets hope its a bigun. ;)

[bullebak]

quote:Originally posted by Tok3n

1. We are completing a final peer review of the JORC report on the resources of
the Rincon Salar which will impact the reserves of lithium and potassium
minerals available to the company compared to a previous inferred estimate.


Sounds like it may need some doctoring to make it look better... (hope I am not scary now...)

AGS fell through the floor when the JORC was released at around $2.85.

[STRAT]

quote:Originally posted by bullebak


quote:Originally posted by Tok3n

1. We are completing a final peer review of the JORC report on the resources of
the Rincon Salar which will impact the reserves of lithium and potassium
minerals available to the company compared to a previous inferred estimate.


Sounds like it may need some doctoring to make it look better... (hope I am not scary now...)

AGS fell through the floor when the JORC was released at around $2.85.
One thing is for sure, Its either good news or bad news. :DEither way some sharp price action will probably follow[xx(]

[Ttops]

quote:Originally posted by STRAT


quote:Originally posted by bullebak


quote:Originally posted by Tok3n

1. We are completing a final peer review of the JORC report on the resources of
the Rincon Salar which will impact the reserves of lithium and potassium
minerals available to the company compared to a previous inferred estimate.


Sounds like it may need some doctoring to make it look better... (hope I am not scary now...)

AGS fell through the floor when the JORC was released at around $2.85.
One thing is for sure, Its either good news or bad news. :DEither way some sharp price action will probably follow[xx(]

Or Neither good or bad news? Unless a Jork report has to be good or bad?

[Viking]

Don't like waiting for unknow future~
Makes me nurvous~
This is proven to be a very interesting week~ trading halt in ADY, and what happen in NZX.AIA and NZX.SOE...etc~ this could be a fun week after all~ the thrill to be in share market :)

[hero]

WOW! $45 BILLION OF LITHIUM. GO ADY!

[bullebak]

quote:Originally posted by hero

WOW! $45 BILLION OF LITHIUM. GO ADY!


Wot a relief... :)

Up and up to one dollar, maybe not today.

[Viking]

This Reserve calculation has increased the size of the deposit, from the previous resource calculation of inferred resources from 253,000 tonnes of lithium to 1,403,000 tonnes, a 5.5 times increase, and an upgrade of the status from an inferred resource to proved and probable reserve. The potash reserve also increased from 2.48 million tonnes (potassium), which is equivalent to 4.728 million tonnes of potash to 50.8 million tonnes. These reserves will last approximately 400 years at the current production target of 17,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate, chloride and hydroxide per annum.
The conversion ratio from lithium to lithium carbonate is 5.32, implying a reserve of 7.46 million tonnes of lithium carbonate at $6,000 per tonne (2006 price quoted by Industrial Minerals) with a historical value of $44.7billion. The conversion ratio to lithium Chloride from lithium metal is 6.12 and for lithium Hydroxide it is 1.49 times.
Construction progress continues at a satisfactory rate at the pilot plant with plastic pond liners and other important equipment being delivered shortly.
This proven and probable reserve estimate for the project will assist with the current negotiations for project financing for which the construction budget is US$106.4 million.

[Dazza]

salivaring at the moment

50cents!! wahoot :D

i had hoped for 50 cent for end of year lol

mind u previous broker report's target was $1.20 it ink..
mmmmmmm


shall i sell and buy back later:P
if i did that when it was 45 cents and then went down to 36.. if i hadnt brought back id miss this big rise :D

[bullebak]

Dazza, maybe better sell when the news is in the public arena, today is only for the traders.

Looks very strong at 50c.

[STRAT]

Just got back to my PC. Wow, Kinda scary really [:0]:D:D:D

[Dazza]

well imagine this, for all the sellers out there last week that didnt buy back, well u just missed out on a massive 33% gain

up to 54cents now bull......

i tink alot more going for it tomorrow

remember alot were thinking there will be news on wednesday

certainly not today!

im await

mite sell enough to be freecarried though

but boy oh boy, stick to my guns and hold this baby :D

[STRAT]

quote:Originally posted by absolut-advance

what are your price targets for tomorrow guys...

What do you think this will close at tomorrow?



AA
Havent had a chance to digest the ann yet but its looking like 60+ today and I recon back down tomorrow

[STRAT]

quote:Originally posted by absolut-advance

Its getting gobbled at a alarming rate!
57.5 LOL

[Dazza]

amazing to think my target of 50cents has been smashed in 1 months time, from the time i brought it

amazing run its had

tomorrow i tink if it finishes around high 50s and low 60s its great

run very hard today, but alot of people have been caught off guard

u may see somebuying tomorrow when ppl come back from work and realise that the ann. came out today

[bullebak]

Hopefully it might be in the news tonight... in that case there's more tomorrow, maybe 70c or so (just a guess). Then it will surely pull back (but do buy back).

OBV is also up.

[Halebop]

The pace of price growth will have to slow down of course but the JORC result has added a degree of "de-risk". Personally I was starting to think that Iron might be the sleeper with this company but that is a pretty big Lithium result announced today. The pilot plant will be the real test but as time goes by the degree of "de-risk" should rise (along with the price). As a Lithium and iron producer this share is easily worth north of $1.00 and perhaps north of $1.50 depending on commodity pricing. That discount will close as execution risk is reduced.

I had personally thought that the previous peak of 45 cents was probably a fair reflection of risk and value in the short term but now 75+ would be my range. I suspect attempting to range trade this one in the short term is a dangerous strategy.

A few sellers moving right on the close but she looks comfortable for a mid 50 close...

[Tok3n]

Wow, this makes up for crappy PPP :)

[STRAT]

quote:Originally posted by Dazza



u may see somebuying tomorrow when ppl come back from work and realise that the ann. came out today
Dazza, you are a two star senior member now [8D]and speaking of people getting home from work tonight wont Shasta be tickled pink? :D

[shasta]

Shasta is almost speechless!

[Tok3n]

speechless at ADY rise or URA's sudden rise?

joking.

[shasta]

Both although not unexpected...

[Huang Chung]

Given the sharp rise in the ADY share price over the last two weeks or so, you could be forgiven for thinking that the good ship Admiralty is one very leaky boat....

Congrats to those holding!

[skinny]

Nice :)

Not quite as good as the AED reserves upgrade earlier this year but think its the first stock I have owned tripling on me inside a month.

Just to nit pick, thought the news release was a bit strange in saying the reserves will last 400 years at current planned production rates. Obviously they'll look to expand production as much as possible on the basis of the reserves upgrade...

[warthog]

Well done Shasta et al!

[Dazza]

strat been a 2 star member for awhile now, isnt it at 500 posts? lol

mmmm i just dunno what price to sell tomorrow to be free carried..

maybe 60 cents?

but in the last 10 mins, did u guys see it rise back to close at its highs today, if thats not bullish then i dunno what is!!

but mmmmmm i mite not even sell yet, and be free carried when it reaches $1 :D

i see halebop belives that 75cents is near term price target

but mmm this is out of all my predicitons !

smashed past 50 cents today with a conviction!

[shasta]

Dazza

Did you mean Strat, or me?

Anyways tomorrow will see another surge first thing followed by an afternoon sell off/profit taking

[tricha]

Shasta - "Anyways tomorrow will see another surge first thing followed by an afternoon sell off/profit taking"

[shasta]

I should have said, we will likely see...

I can see it running hard & then traders selling out later on...

ADY keep running a little too hard, IMO

[tricha]

sO EXCITED i PUSHED THE WRONG BUTTON.

Dam, did it again :D

Just remember folks, Admiralty have stated "this is a worldclass resource" and before the upgrade today. Worth Squillions [:p]

Take note - some giant company like Toyota will have to get in soon, not enough Lithium to make all those wheels go around.

Seller beware :(

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[shasta]

Yeah get in quick they only have 400 years worth of Lithium to supply...:D

It's ONLY worth $44,700,000,000...:D

[Tech Step]

shasta if you were in perth I would give you a big kiss for "bagdering" me into this one.

I am holding tight!

[STRAT]

quote:Originally posted by Dazza

strat been a 2 star member for awhile now, isnt it at 500 posts? lol

Oops, [:I]Sorry Dazza. I guess your two stars were just burning extra bright yesterday. Must be the Lithium :D

[Tok3n]

Whats the technical likelyhood of them driving up Li production?

400 years is nice, if u wanna hand ur stock down the generation(s) :) but won't the real driver in the SP be ramped up production?

I hope thats the next annoucement :)

[tricha]

44bn resource to help with bankers
Email Print Normal font Large font Barry FitzGerald
July 24, 2007

Advertisement
AdvertisementIT IS not every day that a resources company lays claim to be sitting on a deposit with a value of more than $44 billion. But that is what Queen Street-based Admiralty Resources has claimed for the lithium locked up with potash brines at its Rincon Salar project in northern Argentina.

Lithium is a boom metal thanks to increasing use in hybrid car batteries and those found in hand-held devices of all types. Potash has been no slouch either as demand for its fertiliser properties rise in line with living standards in China and India.

A new reserve estimate for Rincon, released yesterday, showed that Admiralty has both in spades. But turning that in-the-brines potential into a profitable business is another matter. Admiralty noted that the new reserve estimate would at least "assist with the current negotiations for project financing for which the construction budget is $US106.4 million".

Admiralty reckons the brines at Rincon contain an expected 1.4 million tonnes of lithium (expressed as a metal and after 75 per cent recovery) and 50.8 million tonnes of potash (expressed as potassium chloride and after 70 per cent recovery).

It's almost a case of too much of the stuff, with the company pointing out that the reserves would last for 400 years at its current production target of 17,000 tonnes of various lithium products.

Admiralty shares rose 18.5¢, or 46 per cent, to 58.5¢. Good anticipation of the reserve upgrade — lithium was up fivefold and potash even more so — has resulted in the shares rising to yesterday's stronger closing from as low as 10¢ at the start of the year. Admiralty is now valued at more than $500 million.

The project is in the Salta province of Argentina at an altitude of 3740 metres. Covering an area of 280 square kilometres, Rincon is a so-called endoheic or "closed" basin, with no water escaping. Annual evaporation is among the highest in the world at 3000 millimetres.

http://ady.com.au

[bullebak]

Looks like a good start today. Chart yesterday clearly shows some unfinished business.

[Ttops]

quote:Originally posted by bullebak

Looks like a good start today. Chart yesterday clearly shows some unfinished business.

You're joking. I've not seen anything like it. Have no idea where it will open at!
My depth Buy shows only 10 prices the lowest of which is 72.5c and rising fast. Predict 75c could be hit before it retraces. Can I contemplate $1 soon? [:p]

[STRAT]

quote:Originally posted by Treetops


quote:Originally posted by bullebak

Looks like a good start today. Chart yesterday clearly shows some unfinished business.

You're joking. I've not seen anything like it. Have no idea where it will open at!
My depth Buy shows only 10 prices the lowest of which is 72.5c and rising fast. Predict 75c could be hit before it retraces. Can I contemplate $1 soon? [:p]
I too am looking at the depth in total disbelief [:0]

[Viking]

[:0][:0][:0][:0][:0][:0]
:D:D:D:D:D:D

[ScrappyO]

Sp having a breather a lot of profit takers but holding up well.

[OutToLunch]

Volume is starting to dry up now with the price settling at around 57c... absolutely fantastic after such a big rise yesterday. Clearly no-one is prepared to sell it down by very much at all, at least, not yet. I see that as extremely positive. Who knows what the afternoon might bring though...?

Holding and smiling... :D:D[8D]

[bullebak]

Must complain to my broker again. There is a seller at $2.00 but when I place my sell order for $2.00 (just for fun) it rejects it with the message "Limit price too far from the market".

Any others here have such issues?

(That kind of would buy me a nice new house...) [}:)]

[Viking]

I think that is a good thing Bullebak~ otherwise some might mistakenly trade their house "literally" [:p]

[Ttops]

quote:Originally posted by OutToLunch

Volume is starting to dry up now with the price settling at around 57c... absolutely fantastic after such a big rise yesterday. Clearly no-one is prepared to sell it down by very much at all, at least, not yet. I see that as extremely positive. Who knows what the afternoon might bring though...?

Holding and smiling... :D:D[8D]

Holding and grinning too:D:D:D
Good support came in alright in fact most surprising. A rollercoaster ride though. Fun for the traders as well with 32m odd. Onwards towards your 10+ bagger, maybe tomorrow :D

[Tok3n]

Whats the projected global demand for Lithium?

Can't find anything on the net.

[Dazza]

whilst i am very happy at the share price :D

was a bit disappointed with the opening price of 62cents.

i thought pre match up should have been around 70-75.

msut be alot of dummy bids there imo

none the less it was great to watch it go all the way up to 67 cents :D


i sold 1/3 at 57cents to get my capital back

and have subsequently dumped it onto GDM :D

all the best

free carrying the rest, and will hold and wait :D

[Scuffer]

Happy as, glad I didn't day trade, knowing my luck I would have got left behind.:D:D:D

[Tok3n]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/9/story.cfm?c_id=9&objectid=10453237&pnum=0

[bullebak]

Scuffer, not sure why you are glad you did not daytrade. It might have meant selling at around 65c and buying back in at around 55c. Daytrading is not only selling.

As fantastic as this stock is, the big news is out and about, perhaps it will settle down for a while.

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by Dazza

whilst i am very happy at the share price :D

was a bit disappointed with the opening price of 62cents.

i thought pre match up should have been around 70-75.

msut be alot of dummy bids there imo

none the less it was great to watch it go all the way up to 67 cents :D


i sold 1/3 at 57cents to get my capital back

and have subsequently dumped it onto GDM :D

all the best

free carrying the rest, and will hold and wait :D


Well done Dazza

I did post late last night it would charge hard to start with & then cool off (i think i'm right when up to 67c then down to 55c).

I too sold off 1/3 at 63c (my 200% profit mark), & will free carry the rest...

Smart move into GDM...:D

[Scuffer]

Bully your supposed to be selling to me at 40cents anyway, I didn't day trade because I've been out playing all day amusing myself in other acts of depravity, sliding down a mountain on a plank.

[kissssik]

Share price had to take a breather......"If it looks to good to be true it usually is" take profits and wait for the next run or get caught in the head lights.:)

[shasta]

RSI is looking a tad overheated at present IMO.

It's the traders running the show for the next wee while, so hold tight.

[ziger]

Good eveneing all.. stumbled upon sharetrader whilst researching last week..and must say am very impressed whith the way members share the good info.I have since bought in at 37.5c and am holding .Can anyone give insight as to what the share price may be in say 2 years

[Dazza]

shasta

63 nice nice man, i was watching the price hard out!! , saw it creap up continuely for the first 3 mins, and i was like come on 70 and ill sell enough to be free carried

then came down to 60... then back up to 62..... then down from then

i shoulda sold at 62.. then shoulda sold at 60... but oh well 57 is not too bad

i sold just over 1/3 to be free carried.

GDM
haha i saw trichas and ur posts, and i did the sums, checked out the broker reports too

was waiting and waiting to buy at 60-3 eh

but nvm 70cents is ok, only 10% more expensive, but we neva know when the ann is gonna come out

im in GDM for the iron, i believe if i was management, id sell the UNX shares in october , get a book build or soemthing, and use the funds to fund the iron project :D

[shasta]

Dazza

Was trying to work out an exit price & thought 63c as was at a 200% profit for me (buy price 21c).

Couldnt be near a screen so, put it in expecting it to spike & retrace by the time i got home.

As was the case...

Check the GDM thread...

[Scuffer]

Well done eveyone I'm expecting it to sit at in and around these levels again today and then make another surge in the not too distant future, just has it has previously but would have to agree with Shasta 70 cents is about the max I think it will go in the near term, long term it should get up about a dollar all going well.:)

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by Scuffer

Well done eveyone I'm expecting it to sit at in and around these levels again today and then make another surge in the not too distant future, just has it has previously but would have to agree with Shasta 70 cents is about the max I think it will go in the near term, long term it should get up about a dollar all going well.:)


Scuffer you will find Shasta made no such comments, it was Dazza!

IMO it's a new game now with traders running the stock for the next few weeks...

Could see it drop below 50c today at close, but could see it spike back to the 60's in early trading.

I'm holding & looking to add on dips.

Eventually we will get some more Iron Ore news & the share price will consolidate & the traders will leave exit...

Short term i think ADY will trade between 50 - 60c IMO.

Remember they have "other projects" as well as the South American ones!

[Rumplestiltskin]

A cynic could say that the events of the last few days have been a very effective way of offloading 40 million dollars worth of stock at a price way above what they are really worth.

[bullebak]

Yet another trading halt pending an announcement. Inclined to think they come too frequent, designed to keep the SP on the boil.

[Thumpa]

Another Trading Halt........

We request that you place Admiralty Resources in a trading halt. We request this
trading halt because of the following:
1. We are completing negotiations with Wyndham Explorations SA to acquire a
further 10% of the issued share capital of the joint venture company Cia
Minera Santa Barbara. This will increase Admiralty Resources NL equity in
the joint venture from 50% to 60%. Admiralty Resources shares in Cia
Minera Santa Barbara are held by Fortune Global Holdings Limited, a wholly
owned subsidiary of Admiralty Resources NL. Earnings received by
Admiralty will increase by 16.7%.
2. We request this trading halt to remain in place until Friday 27 July 2007 or
when the announcement is released to the ASX, whichever is the earlier.
3. We are not aware of any reason why the trading halt should not be granted.
4. There is no other information that needs to be provided to support this
request. Executives and legal practitioners are working with the relevant
parties to complete negotiations and documents to have it released as soon
as practical.
Yours sincerely,
Phillip Thomas
Managing Director

[bullebak]

I forgot the read the rest... not sure that it really warrants a trading halt.

BTW
Email alerts from the forum appear to have been disabled, not getting any more and the option has disappeared (for me).

[Halebop]

Depends how they are paying for it I guess but the earnings stream from Iron is looking good.

I think some exploration success from Iron could well make the iron side a significant on-going business. Even at the current share price and production lifecycle the iron business is clearly material to ADY.

Not sure the announcement warranted a trading halt unless they got particularly creative with the financing. Can't imagine it will hurt the share price though.

[OutToLunch]

Wheeeew what a week! Yes it will be interesting to see how this will be funded. Mind you it's only going to cost the equivalent of about 3 boatloads of iron ore so they won't have any trouble raising debt to cover it 9and pay it back quickly). Alternatively, now that anticipation of Li success is built into the share price they may be thinking of leveraging off that by issuing say 20 million shares at 50c (rough numbers pulled outa me bum but you get the picture). Looks very good whichever way you looks at it.

Thanks too tok3n for the link to the Herald article. Note the mention of A123 systems, which is the same company that Phil has been talking with recently. They're getting serious, and future Li demand in general looks set to lift off.

5 bags so far... and the next 5 look very achievable! :)

[Brut]

Trading Halt when the DOW got smashed last night. I think it was a good move!

[clearasmud]

quote:Originally posted by OutToLunch

Wheeeew what a week! Yes it will be interesting to see how this will be funded. Mind you it's only going to cost the equivalent of about 3 boatloads of iron ore so they won't have any trouble raising debt to cover it 9and pay it back quickly). Alternatively, now that anticipation of Li success is built into the share price they may be thinking of leveraging off that by issuing say 20 million shares at 50c (rough numbers pulled outa me bum but you get the picture). Looks very good whichever way you looks at it.

Thanks too tok3n for the link to the Herald article. Note the mention of A123 systems, which is the same company that Phil has been talking with recently. They're getting serious, and future Li demand in general looks set to lift off.

5 bags so far... and the next 5 look very achievable! :)


But not by you.
You're free carrying at 65c and selling at $1. Right?

[bullebak]

Has it been suggested how the development of the full-scale lithium plant will be financed ($100m)?

MDS reckons it may pull back to low 40s.

[clearasmud]

I believe PT has been talking about negotiating a $100m credit facility 2 months or so ago.

[Thumpa]

If ADY is buying another 10% of the Iron Joint venture now , it would suggest that Lithium Funding has already been sorted , but not announced ?

[OutToLunch]

quote:Originally posted by clearasmud


quote:Originally posted by OutToLunch

Wheeeew what a week! Yes it will be interesting to see how this will be funded. Mind you it's only going to cost the equivalent of about 3 boatloads of iron ore so they won't have any trouble raising debt to cover it 9and pay it back quickly). Alternatively, now that anticipation of Li success is built into the share price they may be thinking of leveraging off that by issuing say 20 million shares at 50c (rough numbers pulled outa me bum but you get the picture). Looks very good whichever way you looks at it.

Thanks too tok3n for the link to the Herald article. Note the mention of A123 systems, which is the same company that Phil has been talking with recently. They're getting serious, and future Li demand in general looks set to lift off.

5 bags so far... and the next 5 look very achievable! :)


But not by you.
You're free carrying at 65c and selling at $1. Right?


Yes that was my original thinking, but recent events have caused a major rethink... I'm definitely holding the lot now. I might consider doing the free-carry part at around $1 but ADY is on the warpath in a big way so who knows. The risk side is definitely lower now than before.

[bear]

Maybe the thread title needs changing???

happy and waiting with anticipation of more good news

Bear

[OutToLunch]

quote:Originally posted by bear

Maybe the thread title needs changing???

happy and waiting with anticipation of more good news

Bear


Nah, I reckon leave it. It's nice to look back on and reflect on what ADY was then... which you described perfectly at the time. :)

[Dazza]

awesome stuff

IMO the iron is the cash cow, so buying more into it is good

useing the cashflow from that to part fund the lithium is a great idea

good management skills there

[clearasmud]

http://www.stateone.com.au/market/pdf/_SOSL%202007_07_25_%20Admiralty%20Resources.pdf

A good read but take it with a grain of salt guys imo.

Clearasmud

[OutToLunch]

Now that's a backflip. Given that the market anticipates future earnings, and we have a (probably now conservative) eps figure of 21c according to these guys in 2009-10, I can only see ADY staying above 45c, short term blips excepted. Then there's a possible duubling of capacity at Rincon, plenty of reading on the Net of a looming severe Li shortage, etc. Short term weakness maybe but a long-term winner...

[clearasmud]

My thougts exactly OTL

[Halebop]

Given how discount cash flow valuations work, depending on the price paid for the iron business and how it was financed, the iron valuation component will have increased by 5 to 7 cents a share as well (what a difference a day makes). That could put the iron business alone at 40 to 42 cents a share using the broker's own methodology.

In term of Lithium I agree with their take on downside risk - particularly timing and capex - but there is plenty of upside risk too - scale of operations, ability to scale production as demand increases without much additional project risk, long term Lithium demand trends, technology projections.

What I find disagreeable is the discount they place on the lithium business case. 10 cents is too cheap. Assuming the bulk of project risk rests with financing rather than technical feasibility, a 10 cent value on 8+ cents of Lithium earnings, even 3 or 4 years out, is a pretty high discount rate. If production could be ramped up and say doubled, the eventual valuation would double as well (the mine life ensures any valuation is within cents of a "permanent" business case anyway). EPS could possibly be in the range of 30 to 35 cents on an upscaled assumption but even if we assumed a 2.5 year price target of $1.65, 45 cents is quite a discount.

Suspect they were just picking a short term retrace and wanted to look smart. As a holder I obviously hope the iron announcement causes some embarrassment for them. In the short term they could do anything but even $1.65 will be cheap if the Lithium project is scalable. Even on a "risked" basis I still think they are worth closer to 75 cents.

[shasta]

Well said Halebop, agree with your valuations.

The capital required for the Lithium project is $US106.4m & PT has stated more than once, he wants production ramped up to full capacity while demand & prices are high.

That goes with the Iron Ore as well...

ADY also has other projects, & isnt just a 2 project company, although these could be sold off to assist funding.

I have also seen rumours of the Lithium business being spun out separately from the Iron Ore to focus more on each project, that would be an interesting way to finance it!

Not quite sure why we needed a Trading Halt to buy another 10% in the Chile Iron Ore project, but another 16% income will mean yet another re-rating & the $1.20 valuation looks even lighter now.

Phillip Thomas is showing the entire resource market how a proactive/ambitious MD should go about things...

Best part for me, is that the story is still just getting out.

[skinny]

Well at least the report gives us some numbers to kick around :D

I agree HB that their discounting of the Rincon Salar is ridiculous and was also playing around with the impact of scaling up the operations. You don't have to scale too far before you start getting fwd (2009-10) p/e multiples around 1! And on the technical side I don't see any issues in scaling -- they just need to build more evaporation ponds.

But the valuations depend on iron ore, lithium and potassium prices all staying around current levels. Their iron ore and potassium operations are hardly a ripple in the ocean of the world supply of these resources --- BUT --- as I pointed out way back on page 2 or so of this thread --- the planned lithium production rates would seriously lift world supply levels and hence impact global pricing. E.g. current global production is around 75k tonnes so if they did produce 20 tonnes p.a. (as in the brokerage report) that's roughly a quarter of current global production...

In order to be an uber bull on this stock one really has to hope that global lithium-ion battery demand *seriously* grows from this point. Possible if lead acid batteries are phased out (a process that no doubt assisted by the very high levels of lead pricing currently) but impossible to say with any degree of confidence.

Personally I haven't sold any since buying in at 20c, but its not a large holding for me so fairly easy for me to sit tight and see where the ride takes us [:p]

[shasta]

Skinny

Cellphones, Laptops & other high battery drain portable devices are seemingly getting more & more popular & would appear to be around for quite a while yet...

Can anyone remember what it was like before cellphones?

[Scuffer]

Tricha also posted that makita have developed a new range of lithium battery operated hand tools. Makita make some serious amounts of these tools for tradesmen and the home handy man, and they are one of the better manufacturers.

[skinny]

Don't be disingenuous Shasta, well aware cell phones and the like are popular :D

Global demand for lithium, principally driven by small lithium-ion batteries, has been growing at 4-5%p.a. since 2000 according to what I have been able to find on the net -
(e.g. http://www.the-infoshop.com/press/ros42739_en.shtml)

Pretty solid but rates need to be much stronger to comfortably absorb the supply increase Rincon Salar could bring to the market...hence the comment about hoping lithium-based car batteries taking off.