ADY - extremely cheap or too risky/early

[OutToLunch]

>>Pretty solid but rates need to be much stronger to comfortably absorb the supply increase Rincon Salar could bring to the market...hence the comment about hoping lithium-based car batteries taking off.

That appears to be the case. There's plenty of reading around on Li-ion battery-powered hybrid cars and plans by the major car manufacturers to increase their production of these vehicles substantially. See the recent NZ Herald article referred to above (and note that A123 systems mentioned in the article is the same company that ADY has been in contact with recently.

I hear you about the need for the Li market to grow substantially and that this is not guaranteed, but from what I've been able to read so far it's looking very promising. In fact the risk as I saw it was that Li would be in such short supply in a few years that it would force alternative technologies to come to the fore. So ADY would be perfectly placed to double their production before that happened and still enjoy high prices (hopefully).

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by skinny

And on the technical side I don't see any issues in scaling -- they just need to build more evaporation ponds.

I don't know enough about the process but more specifically the area itself. Evaporation appears high. Rainfall appears to be low. But I imagine the amount of water available to "transport" the lithium to the evaporation ponds could be a potential scaling bottleneck rather than say topography or other engineering limitations.

[Dazza]

state one just wants more brokerage thats all

target is 45 bah what do they know

[shasta]

Dazza

PT has been sent a copy of the report (hes in Chile) & will act on it.

Its a shameless down ramp by the same people that valued ADY at $1.20 (when they had 49% of the IO, & not the 60% they now have).

Will post more when hes back...

PT is very good at replying to shareholder emails

[Dazza]

roger that

cheers shasta for keeping us informed

i guess u can do all the emailing, otherwise if more of us email him about the same thing , then that is kinda dumb haha

state one = dodgy man!

am free riding this baby :D

[gisborne_gold]

Trading halt lifted. The announcement appears to be being welcomed on the market with new bids coming in.

Here's the announcement:

<center>ADMIRALTY MOVES TO 60% OWNERSHIP OF
CIA MINERA SANTA BARBARA FOR USD15M</center>
Highlights
• Admiralty Resources wholly owned subsidiary has acquired an additional 10% of Cia Minera Santa Barbara for USD$15 million from its joint venture partner
• Payment will be by issue of 10 million shares and USD$10m in cash
• The 10% purchase will increase Admiralty Resources stake to 60%, resulting in management and equity control
• This increase in equity will increase Admiralty Resources’ earnings by 16% from the Joint Venture
• Both shareholders of Cia Minera Santa Barbara, Wyndham Explorations and Fortune Global Holdings Corporation (a 100% owned subsidiary of Admiralty Resources NL) are committed to the expansion of the Santa Barbara Northern Chile project to produce 5 million tonnes per annum of iron ore fines product when port capacity becomes available.

The board of Directors of Admiralty Resources is delighted to announce that it has reached agreement with its current 50% shareholder Wyndham Explorations SA to acquire a further 10% of Cia Minera Santa Barbara, the owner of the Santa Barbara iron ore project in Region Three in Northern Chile.

The acquisition cost is approximately USD$15m and will be paid for by issuing Wyndham Explorations SA with 10 million Admiralty Resources shares and payments totalling USD$10m in cash. The transaction will be finalised at the end of this week. Whilst the purchase price implies a current valuation of USD$150 million, the directors believe once the asset reserves are determined, a significant re-rating of the asset will occur.

Both parties are delighted at the outcome, and it will allow Admiralty Resources to aggressively pursue its objective to expand both the plant and the port capacity to the maximum permitted by its current environmental permits to increase the revenues earned by Cia Minera Santa Barbara. To date Santa Barbara has accessed finance from a USD$20m loan provided by Admiralty Resources, which must be repaid first prior to distributions being made to the shareholders.

The change in equity will become effective this week and further announcements on changes or additions to management, production, shipping and reserves will be made as they occur. The immediate focus is to ensure that the necessary equipment is delivered and installed at the new Santa Barbara plant to take it into full production at 100,000 tonnes of final product (63.5% iron ore fines) per month as soon as possible and that the recuperation continues to improve by improvements to the plant design, additional equipment and mine planning.

The Company has received a number of funding proposals and is expecting to finalise a debt facility to fund the purchase of shares and expansion of the project this week.

Phillip Thomas, Managing Director and fellow Director, Anthony Blumberg are currently at the Santa Barbara mine working with management and will meet with key strategic partners SRK Consulting who have been engaged to prepare a scoping study for the new plant expansion and a JORC calculation of the extent of the reserve at Japonesita, Primavera and Mariposa tenements which cover some 310 hectares. To-date, only 32 hectares at Japonesa have been assessed using JORC methodology calculating a measured and indicated resource. Please refer to the previous ASX release lodged on14 May 2007 for specific details. Cia Minera Santa Barbara (of which Admiralty Resources now holds 60%) has tenements that cover more than 11,000 hectares in the Chilean iron ore belt.

[bullebak]

But not for long...

[STRAT]

This comment was made by macca2 on another site and I think it has a lot of merrit in spite of the fact that the halt was lifted early and may be good news for those who sold down and are looking to re entre "I would think that when it starts trading again there are going to be lots of frantic daytraders effected by T3 settlement.

The suspension will have caught a lot short of funds.

It could well plunge heading into the weekend as they bail out of positions that they can't pay for IMO"

[bullebak]

Strat, online broking requires moneys to be ready and available. Those daytraders must have credit accounts with their brokers? Not likely.

Anyway, I can agree with some that it has to settle in and come back maybe around 41-45 cents before long.

[STRAT]

quote:Originally posted by bullebak

Strat, online broking requires moneys to be ready and available. Those daytraders must have accounts with their brokers? Not likely.
Hi bullebak, Im not sure that is so in all cases. While Im not a day trader I never the less dont have an account with my on line broker and have never been asked to open one. When I make a buy they just send me the bill and I pay it within the 3 days. Any sales within those three days come off the bill before I pay it so if I was daring enough I could look upon it as 3 days credit. Dangerous I know but Im sure some do it [:0]

[OutToLunch]

It may drop back that far, but I would imagine that issuing shares at US50cents would be a significant show of support for the share price in the 50s. Panicked traders might drive it lower, but surely not for long. The announcement is very positive and alludes to more good news to come.

[skinny]

quote:Originally posted by Halebop


quote:Originally posted by skinny

And on the technical side I don't see any issues in scaling -- they just need to build more evaporation ponds.

I don't know enough about the process but more specifically the area itself. Evaporation appears high. Rainfall appears to be low. But I imagine the amount of water available to "transport" the lithium to the evaporation ponds could be a potential scaling bottleneck rather than say topography or other engineering limitations.



Could be, I was assuming that because the area is high up near the Andes they will have plenty of spring snow melt and high country lakes to pipe water from so don't need to rely on rainfall in the area per se. Another bottleneck perhaps is the processing plant.

Anyways, interesting pull back today; bit strange with the +ve news but thats the market for you.

[shasta]

Nice drop today, means Shasta can buy more tomorrow...

I love stocks like these, soooo predictable!

[OutToLunch]

State One have pulled that dodgy 'SELL ADY' report off their website. Wow. If they didn't already look like they'd blown a big hole through the bottom of their credibility boat, now they appear to have drilled another hole next to it to let the water out. Love it. :D[8D]

[Scuffer]

Shasta will be able to buy in again in the morning if he is quick, can ya believe the audacity of them poking holes in my favourite stock.:)

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by OutToLunch

State One have pulled that dodgy 'SELL ADY' report off their website. Wow. If they didn't already look like they'd blown a big hole through the bottom of their credibility boat, now they appear to have drilled another hole next to it to let the water out. Love it. :D[8D]


PT has the copy & will be "in touch" with State One.

Don't expect them to follow ADY much longer

[Halebop]

Cheers major. 1.75 ML/hour sounds like a lot but so does 500 hectares of evaporating liquids. Hopefully the mooted initial 17,000tpa only requires a fraction of the total water available.

Weak opening at 44 cents. The market is now valuing the Lithium business at roughly nil. Havn't got my charts open but that price must be pretty close to the accelerated trend line too.

[bullebak]

Guess I could have waited until today with buying them back...

[skinny]

Good buying today!

[Scuffer]

Yup good buying been on a bit of a spree myself kicked a few cans today here there and everywhere, gotta love those yanks they love to upset the applecart and then buy back.:)

[Ttops]

Was it the Dow falling or the broker report or simply it got a bit overheated and is back on the trendline. Probably all three imo. Good buying. Finished on the broker's report value of 1.45 but looks to have more buyers than sellers at present.

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by skinny

Good buying today!


Wait til Monday when the T-3 traders panic & send it momentarily down further.

That's when i'll be buying ;)

[tricha]

I can't understand people trading this beaut company.[xx(]

This one stays in my bottom drawer, as someone said, "The Paladin of the Lithium."

And from what I'm seeing, why not, lithium should double its price in the next two years and will become just as valuable as U.

We are talking about a worldclass resource, about the metal of the future, which begins now.About mega billions.

And as an added bonus the iron ore will help fund the project costs[:p]

Food for thought [B)][}:)]

[shasta]

Tricha

It has been quite clear to me (& im not chartist by any stretch)when to buy & sell ADY.

In 6 weeks i timed a buy at 21c & sold off a 1/3 at 63c, so i'm free carrying the balance now.

Monday will be a great day to buy before the bounce back...

[Hawke]

I see the ADR in the US for ADY have it trading at about 39c US.

I will look for real bargains next week. I feel for those who got in at the +55c in the last two weeks.

Hawke.

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by Hawke

I see the ADR in the US for ADY have it trading at about 39c US.

I will look for real bargains next week. I feel for those who got in at the +55c in the last two weeks.

Hawke.


Why?

If they are mid/long term holders of ADY, they WILL be rewarded within the next 6 - 12 months when the company re-rates closer to it's Argentinean (Rincor)Lithium project coming online...

In the short term there other projects & it's Chilean Iron Ore project (Santa Barbara) will support the SP.

IMO it did run too hard too soon & there are gaps to be filled, which ultimately is healthy.

I took my original capital out at 63c, & left the other 2/3 in there long have seen nearly 20c drop off that as well.

I took profits at the 200% mark, surely anyone didnt sit back & give it all back to the market?

ADY will be back in the 50's next week [:p]

[Ttops]

Shasta why didn't you sell the lot and buy back in lower? If you understand it did the severity of the drop get caused by unpredictable temporary factors? Perhaps the Dow falling has got some edgy. Would you predict it retracing into the 30's before bouncing. I find it difficult to predict that's my point. I'm all admiration for you if you find it easy. [^]

[shasta]

TT

I see there is a gap at 40 - 44c yet to be filled, it won't hit the 30's again IMO, if it does bargin buyers (myself included) will buy back in.

Why didn't i sell out?

Simple, I had no idea Phillip Thomas would fire out ann after ann & didnt want to miss out on any further action.

If you had sold out after the first ann/spike & gotten smug (& i wouldnt blame anyone for doing so!), you could have missed the next spike, & the additional anns.

I don't always get it right, but i'm always taking a little off the table when it's run too hard.

I assume most here have a sell system, so how much profit would you allow before locking it in, before risking giving some back to the market?

I bought at 21c, so i assume at 42c or 100% profit, most would have taken profits out already at what, 30%/40%/50%???

As i am a trader, this is my method, trading apart of my holding & keeping some long.

I'm still learning the fine art of timing...

[Ttops]

Shasta
You resisted all the way down from 63c the temptation to buy more/ Even Friday at around 43c. Cool [8D] I think I wouldn't sell under that so have removed my stop loss. I'm going to be patient. This share has everything I need. These T3 traders need to sell if the price goes too low. Don't really need any more having topped up at 43.5 but who know what bargains might tempt me.

[shasta]

Just like with KFL at around 90c & at a dead cert & still the market refuses to acknowledge it...

ADY come under this category as do GDM, NWE, FNT among many others...

I'll be buying when the charts tell me ie, above 50c

[Damo79]

And I'm back in the share game :D

It definately pays to go on holiday. Just spent a couple of weeks in chilly NZ. Before I went, ADY had just had just taken off over 30 cents and I was very tempted to sell despite loving this company, since I bought them at 12 and 13 cents :D[:p]:D[8D]. However, I stuck to my guns and held. But then the one day I made it onto the internet while over there, I see that they've closed at 58 and are looking like opening higher!!!

What can I say, I gave in and sold half my holding at open for 62.5 :D My first 5-bagger. Woohoo [8D] I'm still pretty happy to be holding a parcel of these, and may even buy more again if they get much lower. ~45 billion dollars worth of proven resources!!!! Wow!

Cheers
Damo

[OutToLunch]

It's going to be all over the place for a while now I think with the markets looking pretty fragile. Probably best for everyone's sanity to just switch their computers off and come back next year. [:0][:0] ADY is looking better by the day and Phil is very confident of the future for Li and Fe (and ADY, of course), regardless of what the sharemarkets do in the meantime. I haven't been tempted to sell any of my holding and won't be -- but try me in a year or two when we're talking dollars per share! :):D

[Brut]

Released today Quarterly Report June 2007!

[bullebak]

quote:Originally posted by OutToLunch

It's going to be all over the place for a while now I think with the markets looking pretty fragile. Probably best for everyone's sanity to just switch their computers off and come back next year. [:0][:0] ADY is looking better by the day and Phil is very confident of the future for Li and Fe (and ADY, of course), regardless of what the sharemarkets do in the meantime. I haven't been tempted to sell any of my holding and won't be -- but try me in a year or two when we're talking dollars per share! :):D


OTL, good idea. I'm going to ride my tractor today and make holes in the ground.

[OutToLunch]

A good quarterly report: basically everything is on track except for a few teething problems with the Fe side (that have mostly been fixed by now). A JORC estimate for Fe reserves is due out by the end of September for Japonesita and Mariposa. Full steam ahead. :)

[Oiler]

I spent some time over the wet weekend looking at this company,thanks to a suggestion from Shasta at the WGN share trader meeting !!

Got in today at 44cents..and up 15% already. wooohooo.

[:p]

[shasta]

Welcome onboard Oiler...

Never to late to get into ADY & 44c will seem cheap this time next year, when it has a 1 in front of it.

[skinny]

Yes the ducks are lining up. I bought a bunch more @42c yesterday to upgrade my holdings from modest (translation: I can afford to lose the lot) to something a bit more substantive at around 8% of the skinny global hedge fund. Unless the global market volatility continues would not be surprised to see a $1 by years end.

Only grumble I have are some of the terrible names for the iron resources in Chile, e.g. mariposa, primavera and Japonesita. Translation - butterfly, spring time and little Japanese girl.

Imagine being a miner heading off each to day work in butterfly or the little...[:p]

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by skinny

Yes the ducks are lining up. I bought a bunch more @42c yesterday to upgrade my holdings from modest (translation: I can afford to lose the lot) to something a bit more substantive at around 8% of the skinny global hedge fund. Unless the global market volatility continues would not be surprised to see a $1 by years end.

Only grumble I have are some of the terrible names for the iron resources in Chile, e.g. mariposa, primavera and Japonesita. Translation - butterfly, spring time and little Japanese girl.

Imagine being a miner heading off each to day work in butterfly or the little...[:p]


lol @ skinny, some might like that idea? :D

Perhaps when we have 50% ownership of them we rename them in some Australian/English terminology!

[seaosh]

Isn't mariposa also slang for fag in parts of Latin America?

[seaosh]

I sold half of mine at 50 cents on the way up, and bought a little back at 45 cents today. Will be looking to pick up more if I have spare cash and it stays looking cheap.

[Damo79]

quote:Originally posted by skinny

Yes the ducks are lining up. I bought a bunch more @42c yesterday to upgrade my holdings from modest (translation: I can afford to lose the lot) to something a bit more substantive at around 8% of the skinny global hedge fund. Unless the global market volatility continues would not be surprised to see a $1 by years end.


Lol. Hey Skinny, the above just made me realize what a stupid "investor" I am (and why my share trading money got almost wiped out over the period of a month sometime last year). Before I sold half my ADY holding the other day, it accounted for 78% of my "portfolio". [:I][:p]

At least now I can afford to diversify into a couple more companies. Time to start researching and pick a new ADY [8D]. Any suggestions welcome for ST folk are welcome ;).

[steve fleming]

quote:Originally posted by Damo79


quote:Originally posted by skinny

Yes the ducks are lining up. I bought a bunch more @42c yesterday to upgrade my holdings from modest (translation: I can afford to lose the lot) to something a bit more substantive at around 8% of the skinny global hedge fund. Unless the global market volatility continues would not be surprised to see a $1 by years end.


Lol. Hey Skinny, the above just made me realize what a stupid "investor" I am (and why my share trading money got almost wiped out over the period of a month sometime last year). Before I sold half my ADY holding the other day, it accounted for 78% of my "portfolio". [:I][:p]

At least now I can afford to diversify into a couple more companies. Time to start researching and pick a new ADY [8D]. Any suggestions welcome for ST folk are welcome ;).


Are you still on IMI Damo?
That turned out to be a sensational pick!

[Damo79]

Hey Steve. No, not for a long while. The unfortunate thing is that I picked it, and it's going just where I hoped, but would you believe I managed to make quite a large loss on IMI. I forget exactly, but I think I may have sold out at just about it's lowest point just before it bounced and started the nice uptrend it's been enjoying.

I've narrowed down my trading problem to not sticking to my guns when I buy on fundamentals. Attempting to change my approach now (as has worked with the wonderfull ADY). Really had to keep my finger off the sell button through 50, 100, 200% etc profit. Wish I'd had more faith in IMI. You still got them?

[steve fleming]

quote:Originally posted by Damo79

Hey Steve. No, not for a long while. The unfortunate thing is that I picked it, and it's going just where I hoped, but would you believe I managed to make quite a large loss on IMI. I forget exactly, but I think I may have sold out at just about it's lowest point just before it bounced and started the nice uptrend it's been enjoying.

I've narrowed down my trading problem to not sticking to my guns when I buy on fundamentals. Attempting to change my approach now (as has worked with the wonderfull ADY). Really had to keep my finger off the sell button through 50, 100, 200% etc profit. Wish I'd had more faith in IMI. You still got them?


No i sold out when it spiked late last year - thinking it was overvalued...got that one wrong!

Nice work with ADY...good to see you back!

[Scuffer]

All quiet today maybe the rush is over hope you all got back in.:)

[shasta]

Scuffer

IMO if ADY drops either during tomorrow or Friday to 40c & finally fills the gap, it will be set to fly back into the 50's again & should do so quite quickly.

Put your buy orders in at 41c & be surprised...
;)

[OutToLunch]

I think patience will be the key here. Personally I think we're just seeing the beginning of a major (and fully anticipated) unravelling in the markets (led by the US), with so much leverage in play courtesy of the giant hedge funds that have been flourishing in recent years on the back of cheap credit. News that more and more hedge funds are going to the wall is just the beginning. I think this could take many months to settle down. Never underestimate the ability of leveraged investors to panic!

Having said that I have no intention of selling a single ADY share and will just sit tight through the turbulence. At times like this one needs to focus on the company itself, which will continue to operate profitably and continue to supply iron to desperate Chinese buyers for quite a while yet. Then we have the Li side which will be huge too. Phil is cooking up some interesting strategies which we will all benefit from in the long run. There will be more announcements in the near future and any one of them could be very significant.

Meanwhile ADY shares are almost certainly going to be 'on special' over the coming few weeks. [:0]

[Halebop]

I sold today. It doesn't reflect my view on ADY but rather my view on markets overall. If I have to buy back in on a higher price so be it but I suspect the ASX will be testing the lower rather than higher boundary of it's trading channel in the near term.

Good luck folks.

[shasta]

You could well be right Halebop.

Should it breach 40c, she'll fall back a fair bit more & quite quickly as it's already given back to the market a fair chunk from its high of 67c.

Kind of wish i sold all my shares at 63c & not just enough to free carry the balance!

Was quite impressed with how robust ADY was today & to finish green up 1c to 44c & with a VWAP of 45.64c

Hopefully this strength can swim against the tide tomorrow & finish the week better than 44c.

[seaosh]

If it takes another 10% hit I think I'll be out too.

Topped up on Monday and today, but don't want to give all my profits back.

[Damo79]

A bit of exposure from MoneyWeek

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/32991/two-ways-to-play-the-lithium-boom.html

[spruik]

Gap has been filled, time to move in - especially with all this fear around.

[spruik]

38.5c, buy sell or hold?

One buyer for 1.5m got them all at 39.5c, I buy more at 35c

[seaosh]

I'm also out at 39.5c. See how it goes over the next couple of days.

[Dazza]

well i brought more today at 40.5 same amount as i sold at 67

gap filled :D

[shasta]

Yup, took its sweet time filling the gap & now to defy the market in general & fly...

Haven't bought or sold any since selling 1/3 at 63c, too many bargins & too many distractions at present...

Snuck into SRZ instead...

[Halebop]

well i brought more today at 40.5 same amount as i sold at 67

gap filled :D

Nice trade Dazza.

I view now as a high risk entry. It depends on your view of the overall market - my take is the ASX has run out of puff, will break trend and enter a trading range (I wouldn't put a high probability on a total route but the sub prime thing is certainly providing a crash course on risk assessment. Even some quite "smart" people have apparently been very dumb).

Other than being a nice round number, 40 cents doesn't look particularly compelling to me in the way 20 cents did. 20 cents was as certain an entry point as statistics could provide, given the number of times the price bounced along that line. 40 cents could go any way.

For me the low risk stance is to await confirmation of the trend (including the ASX). On the plus ADY are as yet above the 200 day MA, are still in an accelerated uptrend and are nicely priced. On the negative, today's price action pushed down on the uptrend line, the world is reassessing and re-pricing risk right now and the ASX has entered a bumpy phase where downside risk is gaining traction.

http://img230.imageshack.us/img230/5765/ady060807gifow7.gif

[clearasmud]

I am a believer in ADY and will be keeping my shares for the next year or 3 unless the story is broken.$2-$4 dollars eventually.
One of several high hopes.

[Dazza]

halebop

agreed the 20cents was just a screaming buy hense why u and i hoped in around that area.

ady im a firm believer of the fundamentals and management has finally got things going eva since they shipped that iron ore out of the mine

id never imagine it would fill the gap at 40 cents

it reared itself today and i took the opportunity

i may have been a bit too eager beaver eg MBL brought 2 days be4 it announced SP problems....

but oh well

thats how it goes

im happy with the decision

[tricha]

I am a believer in ADY and will be keeping my shares for the next year or 3 unless the story is broken.$2-$4 dollars eventually.
One of several high hopes.

It's as Clear as Mud and I totally agree, a sleeping giant with a few years for it to unfold :)

Lets hope some savy company does not steal it 1st.

Selling Arafura was probably the dumbest thing I did early this year.:confused:

Cheers

[spruik]

whilst i am very happy at the share price :D
none the less it was great to watch it go all the way up to 67 cents :D

i sold 1/3 at 57cents to get my capital back

free carrying the rest, and will hold and wait :D

Sold at 67 cents (post dated 6/8/07)?

[shasta]

Sold at 67?

Dazza sold at 57c, but enough to "cash out" his initial buy ($ worth).

Effectively free carrying, as i've done the same thing. ;)

[Dazza]

yeah what shasta have said hahaha

67 57 who cares i sold to be free carried haha :P

but back in again i didnt think it would eva fill the gap... but oh well if its cheap on fundies then get it

:D

[tricha]

Have a few more ports Halebop, u r not seeing the blue sky

ADY is a 2 year investment and yes it has a few risks, foreign country and enviromental.
Lithium should double in the next two years and game on :D

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Trouble is, the company only gets 12 per cent of its sales from lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49). It’s predominantly a supplier of fertilizers and iodine.
Nevertheless, SQM seems to be a well-managed company that you might want to have a piece of, despite that limited exposure to lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49). Its sales topped $1 billion last year. Net income reached $141 million, having grown at an average annual rate of 37 per cent over the past four years.
Although the shares are currently trading on a price-earnings multiple of 28x, with a twice-covered dividend yield of only 1.5 per cent, the chart looks good, suggesting that investors are buying into the company’s fertilizer and lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) growth prospects.
Much more speculative is Admiralty Resources, listed in Australia.
It is developing two major projects in South America – Rincon Salar in Argentina, estimated to contain 1.4 million tons of recoverable lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) and 2.5 million of potash, and due to come into production in a year’s time, and Santa Barbara in Chile, an iron (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=10) ore mine that’s about to start up.
AR is still running big losses, but investors obviously believe those will evaporate, as an initial $200 million of annual revenues start to flow in from the two projects.
The share price has quadrupled this year and the chart looks great.
If anyone knows of a better way to invest in lithium, let me know and I’ll pass it on to readers. – MoneyWeek

[shasta]

Thanks Tricha - great article & re-affirms where ADY is heading, forget the small swings up & down, this bad boy is heading in one direction...

[Halebop]

Have a few more ports Halebop, u r not seeing the blue sky

ADY is a 2 year investment and yes it has a few risks, foreign country and enviromental.

Lithium should double in the next two years and game on :D

Vodka is more my style. Bourbon if I'm feeling retro. :cool:

If ADY were a 2 year gig then what would be the rush?
As we've seen from the current correction, despite its prospects and cheap price, ADY is not immune to feeling the same chilly winds.

Lithium could double in the next two years... or it could halve. Demographic factors do not yet point to anything other than what has already happened - 4 or 5% per annum demand side growth (this is good growth, why the need to talk it up?). Supply side is already in for a big boost from SQM so ADY may well need a big usage boost just to provide a market, let alone a price rise.

Stick to the main story without the hype and you will enjoy upside risk when and if our future back mounted rocket packs are all fueled on lithium cells. Talk it up now and you might get a temporary 10 or 20% boost but the market will very quickly grow tired of the 10 to 20 year wait for new technologies to emerge and go mainstream.

[tricha]

Thanks Tricha - great article & re-affirms where ADY is heading, forget the small swings up & down, this bad boy is heading in one direction...

You are welcome Shasta, Lithium together with Uranium, one to produce power and the other to store it, parteners to help save the worlds future.

The global market for lithium (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=49) batteries has been increasing at annual rates of more than 20 per cent over the past few years, and reached an estimated value of $4 billion in 2005.
“Lithium batteries hold tremendous potential for continued growth,” says the American study.


Mark my words, the price will go up exponentially for Lithium . There will not be enough to go around.
Admiralty Resouces will follow suit with a few blips along the way, like this share market correction.

Cheers

P.S And the beauty of it all, their iron ore will fund it:p

[OutToLunch]

While I am comfortable with the outlook for Fe and Li, one question has come up for me over the last few days: How will the current market situation affect ADY's attempts to raise capital for the Rincon development? The cost of securing 100+ million dollars might have jumped a bit if it were to be debt funding. Perhaps Phil's exploring some kind of an arrangement with a car or battery manufacturer rather than pure debt funding (which could be a clever move in that manufacturers are no doubt desperate to secure a reliable supply of Li). In essence, "You help fund our development and we'll guarantee you many decades' worth of Li supply". It will be interesting to see what is eventually announced.

[shasta]

While I am comfortable with the outlook for Fe and Li, one question has come up for me over the last few days: How will the current market situation affect ADY's attempts to raise capital for the Rincon development? The cost of securing 100+ million dollars might have jumped a bit if it were to be debt funding. Perhaps Phil's exploring some kind of an arrangement with a car or battery manufacturer rather than pure debt funding (which could be a clever move in that manufacturers are no doubt desperate to secure a reliable supply of Li). In essence, "You help fund our development and we'll guarantee you many decades' worth of Li supply". It will be interesting to see what is eventually announced.

I would imagine PT will actively be sourcing funding alternatives for this other than debt, as you say through a main customer wanting guaranteed supply, well thats how i see it although i agree with Tricha, the Iron Ore is bigger & more profitable than people think.

It will fund the Lithium to some extent, & PT will have a few tricks up his sleeve...

Wonder if ADY would consider a JV with a bigger company in an effort to ramp up production & cash in on the high prices/demand?

Would also spread the risk for when the Lithium craze dies off & demand = supply.

[Mothman]

Had a look at the ADY website today and noticed the top 20 shareholders list. Does anyone know who is the largest holder with 35%? It says ANZ Nominees but who is behind this?

[shasta]

Mothman

The answer isnt straight forward, ANZ Nominees hold the shares for quite a few people in ADY.

I do not believe anyone has a 10&#37; stake, though some of managment have shares held thru there.

I will try & find out & post the results

[Mothman]

So there could be a predator lurking?

SQM could swallow ADY pretty easily I would have thought. And then they could control more of the world's Li resources - to keep the price high.

When ADY's Lithium is produced I am concerned the excess supply will have a downward effect on Lithium carbonate world prices. Unless demand continues to grow however.

Shasta, do you know where to find information on Lithium prices? Or is there no actual spot market just agreements between suppliers and manufacturers?

I will be watching with interest how the new lithium car batteries' performance compares with the old nickel metal hydride types.

[Scuffer]

I think ADY are holding up quite well,yeah she dropped out in the sixties but she will go for a run again pretty soon everywhere is nervous and thats the way it is at the moment but I'm still hanging in on this one like Tricha said the Lithium is the key and its a necessity for a lot of products with all the supply in just a few pockets. The demand is picking up and then watch the sp rise when the world can't get this stuff fast enough.

[spruik]

Looks like it's starting to crack up (I mean down...)

[shasta]

So there could be a predator lurking?

SQM could swallow ADY pretty easily I would have thought. And then they could control more of the world's Li resources - to keep the price high.

When ADY's Lithium is produced I am concerned the excess supply will have a downward effect on Lithium carbonate world prices. Unless demand continues to grow however.

Shasta, do you know where to find information on Lithium prices? Or is there no actual spot market just agreements between suppliers and manufacturers?

I will be watching with interest how the new lithium car batteries' performance compares with the old nickel metal hydride types.

Mothman

I'm unsure of any such market exists, its not on Kitco Metals, so i presume like you do its a supplier v customer agreement?

PT has mentioned "Lithium Chloride" @ current market prices of $US4,200 per tonne, will look into it & advise.

I don't think ADY is a takeover target, but i do see the Lithium project being spun off (via IPO) to fund it ...

[shasta]

Mothman

http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/presentation/9bf31c7ff062936a96d3c8bd1f8f2ff3.pdf

Check out page 26 & 27 in particular...

Mineral Price Watch - is a commercial newsletter, does anyone subscribe to it?

[JackSprat]

Don't worry guys. There's going to be a huge glut on Lithium carbonate shortly to treat all the stock market members throughout the world who crack up before this is over.

[spruik]

Hate to say it, I sold my 200,000 yesterday at 38c when I saw buyers at that level disappearing. Sure it's cheap but it may well be cheaper (also got out of ANZ at $28.65).

A lot of news on the way up but recently a lot of silence. I understand if some folks are suspicious.

Look at what happened to AGS (still holding - long term). Today's market looks crap once again.

[shasta]

Hate to say it, I sold my 200,000 yesterday at 38c when I saw buyers at that level disappearing. Sure it's cheap but it may well be cheaper (also got out of ANZ at $28.65).

A lot of news on the way up but recently a lot of silence. I understand if some folks are suspicious.

Look at what happened to AGS (still holding - long term). Today's market looks crap once again.

Agree shes looking uglier each day, but we must remember the whole market is tanking in this correction & ADY's fundamentals haven't changed at all.

We have 3 Iron Ore JORC anns in the pipeline, & along with an expected US$ drop, we likely have Lithium prices on the increase in the lead up to first production.

Take a long term approach to ADY & BUY at these levels...

[spruik]

Bought my 200,000 ADY back again this afternoon. Keep fingers crossed. It surely would hurt too many people if it goes through 30c, but have another buy order at 30.5.

Where will the rot stop.

[shasta]

Bought my 200,000 ADY back again this afternoon. Keep fingers crossed. It surely would hurt too many people if it goes through 30c, but have another buy order at 30.5.

Where will the rot stop.

Remember ADY found resistance/support at about 30c & then flew into the 40's.

I think 30c is the bottom & you will be well rewarded for your buy at 30.5c

[Halebop]

http://img170.imageshack.us/img170/263/adygifcc5.gif

Like 40, 30 is a nice round number. It could hold there but the charts don't really indicate it as an obvious support level. 25 maybe. I don't see a reason to rush back in until it finds a level where it stops falling. Its now getting pretty close to the Dec 06 Uptrend (which is also not far away from 25 cents). If markets stabilise (and start rising again?) that would appear to be a better attempted entry point as this juncture. ...and if it fails to hold there, I wouldn't be looking for a speedy re-entry.

[spruik]

Looks like they will indeed get smashed below 30c today. 1.8m for sale at 25c, expected opening at 30c as at 8:54 oz time.

[Halebop]

30 is not looking good so far.

[spruik]

23c...

Will buy more at 20c, surely sanity has to prevail some time!

[spruik]

23c...

Will buy more at 20c, surely sanity has to prevail some time!

Just bought 100,000 @ 20c. Unbelievable. Bounced up.

[Damo79]

If you believe the fundamentals of this company, as I do, and nothing has changed except perhaps the cost of a debt facility, then the decrease in share price simply represents a great buying opportunity. Of course it's nice to try and pick the bottom, but if you're gonna hold for a medium to long term it's less important. I can still see $1 in the next year or two (although it's looking just a little blurry atm).

Given the extent of the drop, however, I'm just little worried that something has gone pear shaped that we don't know about yet... However, I'm willing to put the drop down to overall market panic and have just doubled my holding at 23 cents. Admittedly it made it quite easy for me psychologically given that the money came from the half I sold at 62.5 :)

Here's hoping that common sense will re-assert sometime. I'm all for a healthy re-rating of PE ratios and all that, but that sort of correction really doesn't apply to ADY.

Cheers
Damo

[skinny]

I've also bought a bunch back today @24c. Seriously cheap!

[OneUp]

ADY is one I missed. Maybe an opportunity to get in on the ground level again.

Can I ask, what are expected earnings from iron ore for 08?

[Dazza]

****kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk Damnit

If It Wasnt For My Dumb **** Classes At Uni Arggggh

Ady At 20 Cents!!
Qbe At 25.55!!!
Aru At 1.09!!!!!!!!!11

Goooooood Come On Sell Sell Sell Lol

[Damo79]

Hi OneUp
From page 5 of their presentation from the 16th of July:

"Operating Cashflow is estimated to be $12m for ADY for a full operating
2008 year, 2009 expansion will be 7.2m tonnes from Santa Barbara 3.6 from Santa Fe,
providing revenue on FOB of US$400m and EBITDA $50m to Admiralty"

I assume you can increase these figures by 16.6% since they now hold 60% of Cia Minera.

NB, this is nothing to do with the lithium potential, which is really the wild card I think.

[spruik]

****kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk Damnit

If It Wasnt For My Dumb **** Classes At Uni Arggggh

Ady At 20 Cents!!
Qbe At 25.55!!!
Aru At 1.09!!!!!!!!!11

Goooooood Come On Sell Sell Sell Lol

Dazza, there is a consolation prize for you. Harvey Norman still has a number of inkjet printers, discounted to $29.50. Bought one yesterday, works fine, getting some more tomorrow (just for the cartridges...) Lexmark Z1320. :)

[leonchai]

Spruiky...100,000 shares at 20c...28c close!

That must be the easiest 8 grand you've ever made! =)

[OneUp]

Thanks Damo mate.

Trading at 25x 08 cashflows?

Will have to read up on this one.

[Damo79]

Thanks Damo mate.

Trading at 25x 08 cashflows?

Will have to read up on this one.


No worries. Check out the Rincon Salar project though. I know the in ground (or in brine rather) value isn't the be all and end all, but their JORC resource is $44 billion!

If (always IF) they get the lithium business up and running and increase the IO side as predicted, then the current share price could be less than 2x cashflow or 09-10.

[Halebop]

Nice trade from 20 at close. 25c support might be just the ticket but I'll sit this one out and potentially buy on confirmation signals. Too early to be jumping boots and all from this chart...

http://img406.imageshack.us/img406/3982/adygifat3.gif

[spruik]

Spruiky...100,000 shares at 20c...28c close!

That must be the easiest 8 grand you've ever made! =)

That was in a single transaction, someone else sold his 100,000 to me. Showed the contract note to my wife saying I feel sorry for the guy on the other side.

I actually traded ANZ bank, bought at $26.00, sold at $26.70 within half an hour (should have waited longer, came back to $27.00). First time ever I made such a quick buy & sell.

I'd rather not be this much involved (usually I am not), there's more to life than watching the computer screen.

[Tech Step]

well I bought back in today at 24c. Was a bit hesitent on the trigger finger and missed the 20.5c bargain.....

But I can't argueat24c. It is what I originally bought them for and they have moved on so much further.....

thanks to the panic murchant that sold to me.

[tricha]

This reminds me when some lemming sold me ARU on the 12th of May last year for 12 cents.

It was an amazing day to be sitting in front of the computer watching all the lemming's jump of the cliff.

But I view Admiralty a far better investment than ARU.

1 - they are earning.

2 - they have a world class lithium resource.

If u believe in peak oil like I do, it's the metal of the future.

The world is changing fast, did u know that some of the big new loaders out in the mines, have electric motors to drive the wheels.

I can imagine that the dump trucks will be out soon with batteries in them and will re generate power on the way down.

[Damo79]

And up another 24% today to 34 cents!! Hard to believe this share got sold down to 20 cents last thursday. Well done to the brave souls that saw through the panic and topped up :)

[stevo1]

put in silly buy order at 20.5 on thursday(price was 27 at the time).watched shareprice plummet(crickey) rapaidly.panicked tried to cancel order.too late end up owning them.looks half arrrsd clever now but didnt feel so at the time.reason for plummeting market was futures exchange in sydney closed to upgrade(went to manual trading) .consquently computers trading shares on the sharemarket hit stop lose orders triggering eachother on continuing down trend (man it was fast to watch)till futures exchange reopened their computerised system.ady seems to have the goods for the future.

[spruik]

Fear mode must be turned off with buy orders.

[Dazza]

good stuff stevo1

i wanted to pick some up at 20 cents, but i was in a freaken neurology workshop!!

if only it had finished an hour earlier and i would have brought. i came home around 230pm sydney time, to see ADY back up to 27 cents

that really hacked me off big time!

[Halebop]

ADY has underperformed the market on the downside and outperformed on the upside - an anecdote for the joys and pains of cyclicals / resource companies / beta. While it did relatively better than the ASX today it is still within the secondary downtrend albeit at least it trades above other key metrics like the 200dma but then given the speed of the original rise this perhaps isn't the most useful metric just now.

http://img241.imageshack.us/img241/7734/adygifxg8.gif

[shasta]

Halebop

Appreciate your charts as always, but with ADY we know where its heading, the Iron Ore is expanding & very profitable, & the Lithium is what everyone is waiting on!

I rate Phillip Thomas as one of the most proactive MD's on the ASX...

Great fundamentals & low SP, makes it apart of my portfolio...

[tricha]

the big boys jumps in, like Toyota. Admirality will be going Zoom, Zoom.(opps thats a Mazda)

Where will your charts take u now:confused: that's the trouble with charts, when something comes out of the left field, :( u r screwed.


Press ReleaseSource: Toshiba Corporation

Toshiba to Participate in Uranium Mines Project in Republic of Kazakhstan
Monday August 20, 12:30 am ET
TOKYO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Toshiba Corporation today announced that the company would participate in the Kharassan uranium mines project, a new development project in southern Kazakhstan promoted by Kazatomprom (herein after, KAP), a Republic of Kazakhstan state-owned enterprise. Toshiba's participation is in line with its policy of enhancing its nuclear energy business.
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Toshiba will acquire an indirect ownership interest in Kyzylkum and Baiken-U by taking a 22.5% stake in a holding company that has part ownership and control of Kyzylkum and Baiken-U. This move will give Toshiba the right to a maximum of 600MTU from the Kharassan each year. The holding company is currently jointly owned by Marubeni Corporation, The Tokyo Electric Power Company, Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. and Tohoku Electric Power Co., Inc. Toshiba will be the first power systems manufacturer to participate in the project, which will allow the company to contribute to the stable supply of uranium concentrate for nuclear power plants in Japan.
Japan and Kazakhstan signed a memorandum of cooperation in nuclear power in August 2006. In April this year, a Japanese government-private sector mission, led by Mr. Akira Amari, Minister of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, visited Kazakhstan and confirmed to deepen the cooperative relations between the two countries, including securing uranium resources for Japan and technical cooperation. Toshiba participated in the delegation, and signed a memorandum on mutual cooperation with KAP at that time.
By cultivating cooperative relationships with other key players, Toshiba aims to complete its transition to become a world leader in the nuclear power industry.


Contact:
Toshiba CorporationHiroko Mochida, +81-3-3457-2105Corporate Communications Officehttp://www.toshiba.co.jp/contact/media.htm (http://www.toshiba.co.jp/contact/media.htm)Source: Toshiba Corporation

[shasta]

Best to hold a few & put away for safe keeping til this time next year, huh Tricha?

[tricha]

Absolutely Shasta!

I suppose it depends which way u play the field.

1 - Value investor - long\medium term and fundamental investor

2 - Trader - short term and chartest.

3 - Inbetween - a cross between 1 & 2

The future or the moment.

In this case, I'm sticking to the future and the future is Uranium and Lithium. It's a perfect match, ones produces the enrgy and one stores it.

[Halebop]

...and risk and reward? :)

In any case, getting the moment right reduces risk and delivers a higher reward in the future.

[Huang Chung]

Absolutely Shasta!

I suppose it depends which way u play the field.

1 - Value investor - long\medium term and fundamental investor

2 - Trader - short term and chartest.

3 - Inbetween - a cross between 1 & 2

The future or the moment.

In this case, I'm sticking to the future and the future is Uranium and Lithium. It's a perfect match, ones produces the enrgy and one stores it.

Tricha, good to see you are looking at the future, as the present doesn't look too bright for some commodities, particlularly U, but it might present a better buying opportunity.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aqcWfgxkWYwU&refer=commodities

[JackSprat]

And here I was thinking that there was an ever increasing demand for the stuff. Let me get this right. There was a big demand for U 8 weeks ago so all the producers went berserk and produced. Now there's a glut and the price plummets? It can't be that simple. What about the big 3; China, India, America? My understanding was the demand would never be filled for these energy guzzlers. :confused:

[shasta]

And here I was thinking that there was an ever increasing demand for the stuff. Let me get this right. There was a big demand for U 8 weeks ago so all the producers went berserk and produced. Now there's a glut and the price plummets? It can't be that simple. What about the big 3; China, India, America? My understanding was the demand would never be filled for these energy guzzlers. :confused:

...and it hasn't, & even Lithium will go through what Uranium has...

(Kinda like ADY really) Uranium has run pretty hard & pretty fast.

There is likely IMO to be some short term weakness in the U market (just check the U308 futures market, the blue sky has gone!), although mid term throughout 2008 the spot price should rise again & im picking to a new high of $US150/lb.

The EFT's that are storing it won't let it drop too far, before drying up supply, & thats why ADY is gearing up to ramp production of the Lithium Carbonate/Chloride/Potash as much as it can from mid 2008 - 2009.

Get the stock piles & then control the supply/price demand for it!

[JackSprat]

Thanks Shasta,
Very positive outlook. Be good if you're on the button. As for now:) with the markets pumping last night I'd say ADY should climb to .40c today.

[Kropotkin]

I've been looking at ADY over the last month or so and reading this tread with great interest.
Being a newby in the resource sector I'd be interesting in the 'old hands' comments.

1. Given the relatively high dilution @ 380ish million shares, what future short term upside do you see? Would you agree (now that the turbulence has settled) that most of the marginal speculative profit has already been taken?

2. For some reason I cant access their quarterlies online. Is someone able to give be a brief rundown of their mid to long term iron/lithium developments.

I'm starting to regret not putting a punt in at 25c but have a gut feeling that anything under 40c will be a good hold 1-3 years from now :)

[Tok3n]

BHP could do with some Lithium :)

Take over at 40c I'll be happy.

[STRAT]

BHP could do with some Lithium :)

Take over at 40c I'll be happy.Absolutely not. This one needs to run its course

[shasta]

I've been looking at ADY over the last month or so and reading this tread with great interest.
Being a newby in the resource sector I'd be interesting in the 'old hands' comments.

1. Given the relatively high dilution @ 380ish million shares, what future short term upside do you see? Would you agree (now that the turbulence has settled) that most of the marginal speculative profit has already been taken?

2. For some reason I cant access their quarterlies online. Is someone able to give be a brief rundown of their mid to long term iron/lithium developments.

I'm starting to regret not putting a punt in at 25c but have a gut feeling that anything under 40c will be a good hold 1-3 years from now :)

I'll get you up to speed...(BTW total shares are over 800m!)

Basically the Iron Ore is going great guns & already earning & we have some JORC IO resources (3) to be announced at anytime.

The Lithium Carbonate/Chloride & Potash will start to come online from June/July 2008 with ramp up to full production Q1 2009.

Yip you betcha, 40c will look cheap as chips this time next year.

The forecast EPS for 2008 looks good (cant recall sorry) & State One have previously valued ADY @ $1.20 going forward.

Since then they tried to downramp the stock with a very unprofessional article.

Since the $1.20 valuation came out, we have increased our IO JV holding from 49 - 60% & had a massive upgrade in Lithium reserves!

Still the market is correctly discounting the valuation at this early stage...

T/O over talk already, naw forget it & @ at 40c, would need a 1 in front of it even at these early stages!

[shasta]

BHP could do with some Lithium :)

Take over at 40c I'll be happy.

I take it you hold BHP then?

Now they WOULD be happy with ADY @ 40c :D

[Tok3n]

I think ADY's best years (lithium wise) might be in the next decade or middle of the next decade.

Seeing alot of car companies (Nissan, Toyota, GM) are pairing up (or have) with various technology companies specializing in lithium-ion batteries and are still in R&D stage, might not see mass production of these vehicle batteries until 2010+ at the earliest and thus mass demand of Lithium.

2010 not that far away though, just in time for peak oil :)

[shane_m]

ADY, good prospects, it is not clear to me when the money is going flow in to ADY.

[shasta]

ADY, good prospects, it is not clear to me when the money is going flow in to ADY.

Shane

ADY already has revenues from its Chilean Iron Ore JV, & remember we have increased our share in the JV recently from 49% to 60%

The Iron ore alone is meant to be worth around $US115m revenue to the JV in 2007/08 according to State One's old valuation, or $A54m NPAT.to ADY based on 50% of the JV.

These figures were based on 50% share of the JV, so we need to adjust them.

60/50 = a 20% increase in our share, = approx $A65m NPAT (Up from $A54m)

The Iron Ore project(s) are due to have JORC's announced soon too, so could be some resource upgrades as well.

The Iron Ore itself is quiet substantial & will ultimately help pay for the development costs associated with the Lithium project.

[Damo79]

Shane

ADY already has revenues from its Chilean Iron Ore JV, & remember we have increased our share in the JV recently from 49% to 60%

The Iron ore alone is meant to be worth around $US115m revenue to the JV in 2007/08 according to State One's old valuation, or $A54m NPAT.to ADY based on 50% of the JV.

These figures were based on 50% share of the JV, so we need to adjust them.

60/50 = a 20% increase in our share, = approx $A65m NPAT (Up from $A54m)

The Iron Ore project(s) are due to have JORC's announced soon too, so could be some resource upgrades as well.

The Iron Ore itself is quiet substantial & will ultimately help pay for the development costs associated with the Lithium project.


Hi Shasta.

Hmmm... No one would like to see $A65m NPAT for ADY in the coming year more than me. They're my biggest holding by a fair margin after I topped up last week (woohoo BTW).

However, from their last presentation, they give their EBIT as being $A50m once IO production reaches 7.2m tons (hopefully in 09/10) and revenue is $A400m. That was before increase their Cia Minera ownership, so I guess we can make that about $65m. But still, I think ADY is only heading for 2.4m tons IO this coming year with revenue of about $A100m (and they only actually have a license to mine up to 3.9m ton IO at the moment anyway). Not sure what the EBIT is this coming year, but with the expenditure involved at this phase expanding production, I'm not expecting much in the way of NPAT at all.

That said in 2-3 years time, I'm estimating they'll be clearing something like $A100-150m with the Rincon Salar evapourating away :) And I see a very bright future for lithium (and thus for lithium prices). They base their revenue projections on a historic Li price that's well below the current spot price, so there's a fair bit of room for an upside on their projections.

People can make their own valuations based on all the info out there and picking their favourite P/E number, lol. I'm lookin' for something up close to the $1 mark in the next year. If it goes up quickly again, I might lock in some profits, but will be holding some of these long term I think. A very exciting company in my books.

Cheers

damo

[tricha]

Halebop - "ADY has underperformed the market on the downside and outperformed on the upside - an anecdote for the joys and pains of cyclicals / resource companies / beta. While it did relatively better than the ASX today it is still within the secondary downtrend albeit at least it trades above other key metrics like the 200dma but then given the speed of the original rise this perhaps isn't the most useful metric just now."

What is that supposed to mean Halebop.:confused:


I'm sticking to the future and the future is Lithium, just like ARU and PDN it will have its ups and downs.
But next year $1.00 +, who knows, all I know is Lithium will be worth its weight in gold.
And there is no other OZ company that produces it.

Trade it and see it slip away, been there. With ARU:o

[Tech Step]

Tricha.

I think that you will find that Galaxy Resources will be producing Li nect year.

I am tempted to put a bit into them as their JORC is due out in the not too distant future. They also have Fe prospect.

cheers.

[tricha]

Tricha.

I think that you will find that Galaxy Resources will be producing Li nect year.

I am tempted to put a bit into them as their JORC is due out in the not too distant future. They also have Fe prospect.

cheers.

Imm, I think u will find they are thinking of producing Spodumene ( very low % lithium content) and Tantalum.

I'm thinking the costs to set it up will be hundreds of millions and a few years.

Best of luck Tech Step

P.S I'm working in an exact mining operation;)

[shasta]

Hi Shasta.

Hmmm... No one would like to see $A65m NPAT for ADY in the coming year more than me. They're my biggest holding by a fair margin after I topped up last week (woohoo BTW).

However, from their last presentation, they give their EBIT as being $A50m once IO production reaches 7.2m tons (hopefully in 09/10) and revenue is $A400m. That was before increase their Cia Minera ownership, so I guess we can make that about $65m. But still, I think ADY is only heading for 2.4m tons IO this coming year with revenue of about $A100m (and they only actually have a license to mine up to 3.9m ton IO at the moment anyway). Not sure what the EBIT is this coming year, but with the expenditure involved at this phase expanding production, I'm not expecting much in the way of NPAT at all.

That said in 2-3 years time, I'm estimating they'll be clearing something like $A100-150m with the Rincon Salar evapourating away :) And I see a very bright future for lithium (and thus for lithium prices). They base their revenue projections on a historic Li price that's well below the current spot price, so there's a fair bit of room for an upside on their projections.

People can make their own valuations based on all the info out there and picking their favourite P/E number, lol. I'm lookin' for something up close to the $1 mark in the next year. If it goes up quickly again, I might lock in some profits, but will be holding some of these long term I think. A very exciting company in my books.

Cheers

damo

I saw a figure of 2.8m tonnes in that State One report, but somewhere in between our figures, tells a very promising story!

Remember ADY JV already has a contract for 940kt of IO for delivery between 15/2/07 - 30/9/07 - with expected revenues of $US45 - 65m.

Take the mid point thats $US55m (AUS/USD 0.80) = $A69m gross revenue

Take 50% of that = $A35m to ADY (The original contract had ADY@ 49%, now 60%, but the contract has all but finished)

Nice to know we are stock piling the IO, & with the 3 JORC's due we should have an application in to increase the 3.9mt limits.

PT has always said he wants to ramp up production on the Iron Ore to process as much as allowed, & get it to the market...

[KentBrockman]

Interesting article by Jack Lifton, who has written before on the subject of Lithium supply.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=35018

Excerpt: "There’s possibly even a speculative play here. I suspect that if an off-take is signed with a major end user then the market will react positively on the news no matter where the lithium price happens to be beforehand."

[biker]

the play is CGM kids, check it out

easy 30&#37; tomorrow.

:)


That would be the CGM that actually went down 10%.:eek:

[Damo79]

Lot's of buying action this afternoon. Orders going through of 100-200k shares at a time eating up through the selling depth, and price has ticked up 14% today to 40.5 at the moment. A close over 40 would be a nice hurdle I think :)

[seaosh]

Yeah, looks set to close above the 20 day SMA. Hopefully it can stay above that line and trend upwards from here. Let see. . .

I picked up a little more today myself.

[Dazza]

back square even on my top up at 40 cents

missed out on teh 20s a few weeks ago

[Huang Chung]

May be of interest to ADY holders.


http://www.goauto.com.au/mellor/mellor.nsf/story2/CF58FB35B52F9416CA2572C1001C9871

[Tok3n]

cheers for the link

Its quite interesting how car manufacturers are pairing up with various companies

e.g. GM and A123Systems

Any unknown car company coming from "left field" that might go on its own?

[Scuffer]

It sort of really makes you wonder if there is enough Lithium around to make the sp rise dramatically.If Nissan are expecting to be using Lithium in hybrid vehicles in 2009 then they must be quite sure there is enough of a supply at a reasonable cost.

[tricha]

Thanks Huang - confirms again why Lithium will be in hot demand around when ADY are producing.
Why ADY is extremely cheap and will remain in the bottom drawer, I can see a joint venture coming soon and those who trade it might just miss the boat.

.................................................. .................................................. .

"After a year, the partnership between Nissan and NEC will be expanded to include widespread production and sales – the aim being to become the "leading company in the mass production of lithium-ion batteries for the global automotive community".

Most existing electric and petrol-electric hybrid vehicles use nickel-metal hydride batteries.

"Nissan will introduce our own original hybrid vehicle by 2010, followed by our next-generation electric vehicle in the early part of the next decade," said Nissan executive vice-president Carlos Tavares. "

[STRAT]

Japonesita 42 million tonnes Iron Ore Reserve Estimate
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070903/pdf/314bsjbwnzy29b.pdf

[shane_m]

not to be negative, but isnt the Fe level bit too low? there for lot of digging and and trucking, increasings operational cost?

[shasta]

not to be negative, but isnt the Fe level bit too low? there for lot of digging and and trucking, increasings operational cost?

Shasta sold some of his free carry shares @ 42.5c today...

Shane - Agree the ann wasn't that flash, & hence the muted response by the market.

Will be able to buy back more ADY again under 40c, so it can continue going sideways for the next quarter :D

[Tok3n]

Kiwi electric engine using lithium too :)

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4196815a28.html

[shasta]

Kiwi electric engine using lithium too :)

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4196815a28.html


Toot Toot the ADY train is about to leave the platform, volumes building & up 3.5c to 37c today...

Must be an ann on the way...

Keep a watch tomorrow

Am regretting selling 1/3 @ 42.5c now :(

[macduffy]

Announcement made. You can board the train for 36c per share!

Disc. Interested, but not holding.

[Damo79]

Interesting announcement out. They've bought a sodium sulphate deposit near to the Rincon Salar. Sodium sulphate is a substance that they need as part of the lithium separation process, and by producing their own, they'll save US$15 million pa.

Here's the link:

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20070918/pdf/00760096.pdf

I notice they're projecting operating expenses of US$35 million of 09/10. On revenue of US$115 million, that's an EBITDA of US$80m. On top of that for ADY is the projected EBITDA of US$50 for iron or in the 09/10 FY. So (and I'm assuming we believe them here :p), total EBITDA for the 09/10 FY will be US$130m, or as we say in Aus, $158m at todays exchange rate!

Boy I'd love to see a P/E of 10!! That would mean a share price of about $1.75

I can dream :) But pick your own more realistic P/E ratio, and it still looks pretty good.

Cheers
Damo

[shasta]

Interesting announcement out. They've bought a sodium sulphate deposit near to the Rincon Salar. Sodium sulphate is a substance that they need as part of the lithium separation process, and by producing their own, they'll save US$15 million pa.

Here's the link:

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20070918/pdf/00760096.pdf

I notice they're projecting operating expenses of US$35 million of 09/10. On revenue of US$115 million, that's an EBITDA of US$80m. On top of that for ADY is the projected EBITDA of US$50 for iron or in the 09/10 FY. So (and I'm assuming we believe them here :p), total EBITDA for the 09/10 FY will be US$130m, or as we say in Aus, $158m at todays exchange rate!

Boy I'd love to see a P/E of 10!! That would mean a share price of about $1.75

I can dream :) But pick your own more realistic P/E ratio, and it still looks pretty good.

Cheers
Damo

P/E 15 - 20 for a growth company haha :D

Looks like the previous $1.20 valuation should be upgraded beyond $1.50 when production is ramped up.

A very shrewd acquistion, again showing why PT is so highly rated.

Great ann showing potential savings of $US15m pa & the cost of buying the Sodium is less than one years savings!

Also for those with a keen eye, there is the potential to sell the excess Sodium (20,000 - 40,000t with a current spot price of $US120 - 140T) to the South Amercian market, adding in a few more million to the coffers...

[KentBrockman]

http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20070919005419&newsLang=en

Excerpt:

"Along with the continuous input of large-scaled lithium carbonate projects in China, the demand and supply balance of lithium carbonate will worsen soon. The global lithium carbonate surplus will amount to 13.2 thousand tons in 2007, and it will become worse in 2008. The supply will be much larger than the demand, which will lead to rapid price drop."

[JackSprat]

Ofcourse that's if everything stays as it is but with ambitions in the motor industry, telecommunications for example and the need for the specialized batteries therein, demand will never be filled IMO.

[OutToLunch]

That article was so much at odds with my understanding of the Li market that I decided to send it to Phil for his comments. His reply:

>> Thanks

We wrote to this guy complaining of the inaccuracy and misleading
information - we know the chinese guys very well and their clients and its a
disgrace to the industry this sort of inaccurate reporting. No mention of
grades, sectorial demand etc etc etc.
>>

Phil has also been buying more ADY shares for himself lately (check latest Top 20) so I don't think shareholders have much cause for concern. :)

[Damo79]

I believe the content of this article is as accurate as it's grammar... :p

[OutToLunch]

That good? :eek:

[seaosh]

Over 4 million through in the first quarter of an hour. . . Looks like it might shape up to be a good day.

[shasta]

Over 4 million through in the first quarter of an hour. . . Looks like it might shape up to be a good day.

Lets hope so, still more Iron Ore JORC's to come so perhaps more news on the way?

[shasta]

Big volume today (18m shares) with ADY closing up 3.5c to end on its intra-day high of 41c.

Looking like a good week ahead ...

Off the ASX website:

Brief summary of the current ADY projects.

Extracting lithium chloride and potash from a salt brine lake in Argentina.
Operating 10 iron ore mines in Chile.
Exploring for Nickel in Western Australia (Pyke Hill tenement) and lead and Zinc in the Northern Territory (Bulman Tenement).

With the Lithium still to come online, & the Iron Ore going great (more JORC's to come), Nickel prices rebounding & Lead surprising everyone (Zinc has even bounced!), shows ADY are in the "hot metals" at the moment.

Probably time to spin off, or sell the Nickel & Lead/Zinc assets & re focus on the Iron Ore & Lithium assets???

[Huang Chung]

Probably time to spin off, or sell the Nickel & Lead/Zinc assets & re focus on the Iron Ore & Lithium assets???

Guess it depends how promising the Ni, Zn and Pb prospects are Shasta. I don't think it would hurt ADY to have operations outside of South America.

[spruik]

Over 4 million through in the first quarter of an hour. . . Looks like it might shape up to be a good day.

... and it was - looks like staying above 40 from here, and heard that the next target of 55c will come sooner rather than later.

[Viking]

Fingers crossed for this one~
Hoping to see this one going back to the 60c glorious days~

[seaosh]

Looking good again and volume even better than yesterday. Today's volume should finish up being the biggest for the last month.

[Thumpa]

Trading Halt.....announcement soon.....

[Damo79]

Trading halt!!!

Guesses??

- Pre-sale of lithium
- Spin-off of iron ore
- New JORC
- Takeover offer
- Something extremely boring :(

Waiting with baited breath...

Edit: Ah, silly me. It's in the announcement:

We request that you place Admiralty Resources in a trading halt. We request this
trading halt because of the following:
1. We are discussing with various parties iron ore sales contracts and agency
relationships.

[Thumpa]

Discussing with various parties Iron ore sales contracts

[seaosh]

Well bugger. . . I was just transferring cash into my brokerage account to buy some more.

[spruik]

Well bugger. . . I was just transferring cash into my brokerage account to buy some more.

My mate has developed software allowing you to temporarely reduce other buy/sell quotes for one second allowing you to execute cheaper buy orders. They don't notice... :D

[spruik]

We also need a webcam in their boardroom so we can see/hear before these things are announced. Exclusive for ST members.

[ritchie]

how long does the trading halt last

[shasta]

how long does the trading halt last

Ritchie

The TH is in effect until Thrusday 27th, or until the ann is announced to the market.

[ritchie]

crikey...have to wait that long

[Thumpa]

Announcement out:

• Admiralty Resources, on behalf of its 60%-owned Cia Minera Santa Barbara joint
venture, has commenced discussions with various parties on sales of magnetite
iron ore for the period 2008 -2011
• Admiralty expects to enter a Heads of Agreement for supply of iron ore from
2010/11 to 2018 to be shipped from its proposed Punta Alcalde Capesize port
conditional on the ports’ completion date
• The iron ore contract discussions include a new 2007 benchmark price, funding
options and a change to free-on-board delivery basis
Iron Ore Contract Negotiations
The Admiralty Resources NL (ASX Code: ADY) Board of Directors is pleased to announce
that it is conducting negotiations with various iron and steel mills to finalise the sale contracts
for its budgeted production during 2008 to 2011. It is the intention of the Board to sign a three
year contract on a Free on Board (“FOB”) basis rather than the Cost and Freight (“CFR”) basis
currently employed. As soon as a contract is concluded the market will be informed
immediately.
Importantly, the contracted production will not be disadvantaged in the event of a substantial
increase in iron ore prices for 2008. If there is a 25%-30% price increase in the price of iron
ore as forecast by commodity analysts, this price increase will be reflected in the new
contracts for 2008.This new contract pricing structure will take effect from the point of
announcement by CVRD/RioTinto/BHP and Baosteel who set the international benchmark
price. Using the 63.5% iron ore price of US$45.78/tonne achieved by CVRD in January 2007,
a 25% price increase would imply a 2008 contract price of US$57.22/tonne for Admiralty
Resources 63.5% iron ore fines product. A further announcement by Admiralty Resources is
planned for late October 2007 when shipping arrangements are finalized and Heads of
Agreement and contracts will have been signed.
Cia Minera Santa Barbara will continue to ship iron ore to WISCO as production occurs under
the 2006 sales and purchase agreement. This agreement was negotiated by ITOCHU
Corporation for 17 shipments, of which six have been sent or delivered in 2007 to date. We
are planning to make one further delivery in November, subject to port availability at Caleta,
Candelaria.
Admiralty Resources will enter into a new shipping arrangement in 2008 to make the final 10
deliveries. Our strategy to reduce our CFR shipping costs for these 10 deliveries is to
combine our order for handymax vessels – refer appendix below - with other iron and steel
mills that will be purchasing vessels over a three year period which will provide the opportunity
to reduce freight costs. In addition, in late 2008, we expect our panamax port loader facility to
be completed at Candelaria and we will utilize panamax ships to further reduce the shipping
cost for any outstanding CFR shipments

[slam]

Buy on rumor :confused:

[STRAT]

Buy on rumor :confused:Hardly warrented a trading halt eh? :confused:

[spruik]

Was thinking of a sell/buy back after a few days after the report arrived. Those who did might be regretting it - back up to 47.5c as I write.

Trading this one could result in losing it.

[Damo79]

D@mnit! Decided it was time to sell down my ADY holding to a more reasonable level of my portfolio (since it was creeping up towards 50&#37; again), so I sold about two thirds over the last few days at a average price of about 42 :(

Oh well. I can't complain, having made a big profit from this company. And I'm still exposed to the current run, just at a lower level.

Hope everyone else is enjoying the ADY rollercoaster as much as me. Gotta love this company!

[Viking]

It is a ROLLER-COASTER all right!
and much more substantial thrill than the ones you ride in the theme parks~

But I couldn't get why the trade halt for this announcement?
Actually, I couldn't quite understand how significant this announcement is in relation to the stock value~ apart from "Yes, we going to have few more contracts to sell our stuff"

Would someone be kind enough to enlighten me what I have missed??

[seaosh]

Well I'm out again at 50 cents.

Hope to get back in sub 45 cents.

The last announcement wasn't especially substantial and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the price drop back before continuing upwards.

[shasta]

Well I'm out again at 50 cents.

Hope to get back in sub 45 cents.

The last announcement wasn't especially substantial and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the price drop back before continuing upwards.

Selling, say what people? :eek::eek::eek:

You should be buying sub 50c not selling!

Read the ann, they will announce the pricing when it's known/agreed & signed (shortly), & the fact PT has negotiated a long term agreement with a price increase clause shows just how progressive this "future blue chip" is.

When we get the ann telling us the pricing/contractual terms, we can firm up 2008/09 valuations & forward P/E's etc.

That ann will be price sensitive & cause a 10c spike itself!

For those unsure, please consult the charts, all signs point to ADY taking off again, i mean look at the volume 62m :eek::eek::eek:

Shasta is very happy with that ann & will be much happier with the next one! :D

[OutToLunch]

D@mnit! Decided it was time to sell down my ADY holding to a more reasonable level of my portfolio (since it was creeping up towards 50% again), so I sold about two thirds over the last few days at a average price of about 42 :(

Oh well. I can't complain, having made a big profit from this company. And I'm still exposed to the current run, just at a lower level.

Hope everyone else is enjoying the ADY rollercoaster as much as me. Gotta love this company!

I wouldn't worry about having half your funds in ADY. Thanks to the phenomenal run it's had my ADY holding is now nearly 84% of my portfolio. :eek::eek: -- I've had plenty of 'should I sell down' thoughts but the Li/Fe/Potash story is just to good to let go of just yet. All three of those commodities are running red hot and ADY are about to produce cackloads of all of them. I've had regular communication with Phil Thomas and his replies to my questions give me plenty of confidence to just sit tight and hold. The longer term plan, however, is to diversify -- drastically -- probably by selling 2/3 to 3/4 of my holding. That's something to think about later on next year though. Even 50c is a steal if you are happy to hold for another year or so. :)

[Tech Step]

Shasta.

Long time no speak...84&#37; you say..damn....

I got back onboard at 44.5c about 2 seconds before the trading halt. I couldn;t go past the huge volume so jumped back in. How stoked was I when it went into a halt.

I must admit that I nearly sold when I saw the announcement as it was not that flash. However decided to not day trade and hold and am I glad.

Hoping for a bit more tomorrow would like to see 55c hit before a retrace...

cheers to all holders.

[spruik]

Well I'm out again at 50 cents.

Hope to get back in sub 45 cents.

The last announcement wasn't especially substantial and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the price drop back before continuing upwards.

Spot on seaosh. Touched 45c just now.

[soulman]

Seaosh, your wish has come true right now. Wow, your prediction is perfect if you are trading.

Shasta, the big volume is just that. Traders buying in and selling out and buying back in and selling out in a matter of minutes and hours.

I just check though, this coy have nearly 900 million shares on issue and market cap of nearly $450 mil.

[shasta]

Seaosh, your wish has come true right now. Wow, your prediction is perfect if you are trading.

Shasta, the big volume is just that. Traders buying in and selling out and buying back in and selling out in a matter of minutes and hours.

I just check though, this coy have nearly 900 million shares on issue and market cap of nearly $450 mil.

Soulman

Im not reading anything into todays trading other than some profit taking.

Tech - ADY is less than 15% of my portfolio, as i'm holding 1/3 of what i initially had, after buying at 21c, & selling 1/3 @ 63c & 1/3 @ 42.5c.

Am happy to hold these til Lithium kicks in!

[Scuffer]

I haven't bothered day trading ADY at all just happy to sit tight on my initial purchase @20.5, knowing my luck I wouldn't have got back in. The announcement didn't really have much bite but it did settle things a bit which is what this share needs, stability moving forwards and up, feel a bit more inclined to buy more now just gonna bide my time.

[seaosh]

Hmm. . . my prediction was pretty good. So I'm back in with slightly more shares now.

[spruik]

Hmm. . . my prediction was pretty good. So I'm back in with slightly more shares now.

... and slightly more cash...

[tricha]

NZ could lead the way on electric cars

By NICK CHURCHOUSE - The Dominion Post | Saturday, 29 September 2007

Email a Friend (http://www.stuff.co.nz/emailafriend/4218713a13.html) | Printable View (http://www.stuff.co.nz/print/4218713a13.html) | Have Your Say (http://www.stuff.co.nz/3127301a4621.html)

http://www.stuff.co.nz/images/329457.jpg Reuters
WE HAVE THE POWER: Brush your teeth, put the cat out, turn the dishwasher on and plug the car in. According to the Govt's climate change strategy, this could be a reality in as little as five years.
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Brush your teeth, put the cat out, turn the dishwasher on and plug the car in.


If the Government's climate change strategy is to be believed, this could be the reality in some New Zealand homes in as little as five years.
Electric cars have been desired and designed, discounted and debunked, built and broken for many decades.
In fact, they have been everything but accessible to the average motorist.
The Government's latest punt to save the environment - its climate change strategy issued last week - plans to cut per capita emissions in half by 2040 and puts New Zealand up as a willing leader in electric car technology.
The question arises: why now, when it has not worked before?
Not worked is not entirely fair.
Electric cars are on the road in Europe, being used in California, and feature in various forms at almost every international motor show.
But getting them up and running in New Zealand, where we still import more than 120,000 used cars a year to bolster our aged fleet, would take, at the very least, a major shift in thinking, policy and technology.
California tried it 15 years ago, requiring new-car sales to be 10 per cent "zero-emission cars" by 2003.
The concept fell over long before then.
But David Parker, the minister responsible for climate change issues, is positive electric cars are the future.
"In the past decade there has been no real environmental imperative driving it, and that is the big change now," he says.
He is in plentiful company, with everyone from United Nations officials to Hollywood stars stressing the need for action on climate change and electric cars becoming de rigueur in celebrity garages, ironically often alongside petrol-sucking Hummers and other monsters of energy inefficiency.
Along with the motivation to do something, Mr Parker says lithium-ion batteries, used for laptops and cellphones, take the evolution of battery power about 80 per cent toward a feasible solution for everyday electric cars.
Car manufacturers are indeed making spectacular headway toward a commercial solution for the electric automobile, with some even putting a date on it for New Zealand.
Mitsubishi Motors New Zealand managing director John Leighton says the Mitsubishi i-Car will be on the road in Japan in 2010, and hitting New Zealand's shores not long after.
With a 660cc 47-kilowatt motor (about half the grunt in a standard Toyota Corolla), the i-Car would take about eight hours at home to fully recharge but a speedy separate three-phase plug could mean recharging in 20 minutes, something a bit more practical.
"So you can see in the future you'll have pedestals in parking buildings and outside cafes and you'll be able to put your credit card in, do your shopping and your car will be recharged," Mr Leighton says.
It is a great Jetsons-style mental picture, and Meridian Energy is banking on it, too, with a plan to bring in a variety of electric cars for road demonstrations early next year.
Meridian's electric vehicle project leader, K-J Kells, says Meridian is not interested in selling cars but wants to be the company that powers them up.
Estimates of refuelling with petrol or diesel versus recharging costs put the electric car well out in front.
New Zealand is different, and Mr Parker picks renewable energy as one of the strongest reasons that it can become "one of the three best-placed countries in the world to power electric vehicles".
With lakes, rivers, thermal activity and windy coastal land providing more and more of the country's juice, we are not polluting by using more electricity.
Using our own energy to drive our own cars would reduce reliance on imported oil, but require more electricity and in many other countries that comes from nuclear or coal-fired power plants.
As New Zealand's main supplier of renewable electricity - from hydro and wind power - Meridian has cottoned on to the key to New Zealand's picking up this technology, yet possibly the greatest hindrance as well. How much more can we use?
Mr Leighton acknowledges the need to plan ahead if this technology is to become a reality.
An extra 50,000 electric cars will boost our national electricity demand by 1 per cent, he says.
With a national fleet of about two million cars, even if only a quarter become electric, that means increasing electricity production by 10 per cent over time, without counting other increasing demands on the national grid. Mr Parker says that New Zealand can boost electricity generation by 20 per cent through wind power alone, and more by harnessing geothermal power.

[STRAT]

So what do you fellas think about todays ann and the carving up of ADY???

[slam]

Hi All/Strat

I liked the company the way it was. They do have some relevant points as far as share holders wanting specific areas of investment, and the funding makes sense.
One problem I have though is this sort of thing takes time, and with a share consolidation, price may dip. VRE consolidated and has never got back to where it was pre.

Cheers
Slam

[slam]

And by the looks of the sales side, other not sure either

[STRAT]

Hi All/Strat

I liked the company the way it was. They do have some relevant points as far as share holders wanting specific areas of investment, and the funding makes sense.
One problem I have though is this sort of thing takes time, and with a share consolidation, price may dip. VRE consolidated and has never got back to where it was pre.

Cheers
SlamHi Slam, Im currently out and looking to get back in so a share price dip suits me just fine but I particularly liked that the Lithium project was funded by the Iron ore so now time lines vs share value etc will change and the spec aspect of the company will be out on its own. Not so good Im thinking. :confused: noted, down to 41.5cps so the market doesnt like it either so far. So much for ...............
quote " increase value to shareholders" :eek:

[spruik]

Anyone care to speculate on the SP for the coming days/weeks?

[slam]

Anyone care to speculate on the SP for the coming days/weeks?

Which company :D;)

[Viking]

The Admiralty Resources NL (ASX Code: ADY) Board of Directors is pleased to announce a proposed demerger of the Rincon Salar lithium assets. Key advanced Admiralty assets comprise the Cia Minera Santa Barbara iron ore production joint venture located in Chile and the Rincon Salar lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium chloride, sodium sulphate and
potash project located in Argentina.

ADY intends to undertake an in-specie distribution of shares on the basis of 1 new Rincon Lithium Limited share for every existing 1 Admiralty share held. ADY Resources Ltd, an unlisted public company that contains only the Rincon Salar project, will be listed and will have approximately 280 million shares on listing.

Importantly, the core Admiralty projects are at differing stages of development with distinct equity and debt funding and operational requirements. Whilst the iron ore operations are currently being increased to full capacity with the potential for significant expansion of production, the Rincon Salar is in the pre-development phase with a pilot scale plant nearing
completion in two weeks.

It is intended that both companies will have separate devoted management teams. This will enable them to focus on the respective operational imperatives to generate maximization of shareholder value. Although iron ore production is not currently large on a global scale, potential exists to further increase reserves/resources to enable greater operational capacity going forward. Only a relatively small proportion of Admiralty’s iron ore tenements have been explored to date as the strategic imperative to date has been on cash flow generation.

The Rincon Salar lithium project has the potential to become one of the largest lithium producing operations globally. Lithium product markets are anticipated to grow solidly owing in part to the expanded uptake for lithium batteries utilized in “greenhouse gas friendly” hybrid motor vehicles and other major applications in the glass and ceramics industries.

[Viking]

Well, all the talk about how ADY's Iron ore funding the Lithium exploration is over~
This can be a good and bad:
1. We can't have have legs one in each boat now, its either taking the Fe or the Li~
2. Rincon Salar is going to be in full swing very quickly, by the look of thing~

Could this move making the ADY even riskier?

[shasta]

Well, all the talk about how ADY's Iron ore funding the Lithium exploration is over~
This can be a good and bad:
1. We can't have have legs one in each boat now, its either taking the Fe or the Li~
2. Rincon Salar is going to be in full swing very quickly, by the look of thing~

Could this move making the ADY even riskier?

Viking

If you read the whole ann its good

1. A much needed consolidation of shares - down to approx 280m

2. An inspecie distriubution @ 1:1 so you end up with shares in both anyway.

3. The lithium story & the growing Iron Ore revenues get there deserved attention & focus

4. I saw this coming & will repost what i said on HC.

I topped up today - so am happy as

[Damo79]

Interesting move, and probably a good one in the long run I think. I agree that it's a shame from the lithium side of things that there won't be a source of free cashflow to fund it into full production though.

However, overall it's a pretty drastic change, and suddenly I find I don't have as good an idea as to where they're going and how they're gonna get there (with regards to funding and management for example), so have decided to take my not so insubstantial profits and sit tight 'til I have a better idea. Am still very interested, and will watch very carefully with a view to re-entering (and I accept that could be at a higher price).

Cheers
Damo

[shasta]

As foretold by your's truly...

Didnt quite get it right, although PT has already said forward sales will cover the debt.

No IPO = tight race to get the shares via ADY = great spike coming!

Subject:re: financial review...Stock Code:ADY - ADMIRALTY RESOURCES NL. (http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&q=site:asx.com.au+ADY&btnG=Search&meta=)Posted:27/09/07 21:00Hotcopper Radio:ADY on BoardRoom Radio (http://www.brr.com.au/ADY)Posted By:Shasta_NZ (http://www.hotcopper.com.au/user_profile.asp?uid=89219)Views:381Post #:2145429 (In Reply to msg #2143305 from roguetrader66 (http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_thread.asp?fid=1&tid=546448#2143305))Sentiment:BuyIP:121.73.xxx.xxx Voluntary Disclosure:Stock HeldWe are missing the obvious here, splitting ADY would provide the funding for the Lithium project.

Of course ADY holders would get an inspecie distribution, & have an interest in the Lithium & Iron Ore assets still, whilst maximising shareholder value.

When you think how many shares are on issue, further dillution or placements/debt funding arent in the shareholders interests.

Would be a very highly sought after IPO!

Disc: Currently holding the following ADY,GDM,LST,NZO,URA

[spruik]

The Fe company could make advances to the Li company for funding? If not, I am sure funding can be arranged.

Many "boys" on HC didn't like today's news and sold down to 0.415. They must be really peeed off...

Guess shasta was buying at that price!

[Viking]

Actually I do hope that this demerge move will get ADY into the spotlight~ as I still think the company especially Li is yet to be known to the market~

Yes, you are right Shasta we do end up in both ways, just the uncertainty it creates keeps me on the toe a bit ~ I guess I am too comfortable with the idea of ADY able to have its Iron ore funding its Li into full production, having a promising upside and still got your backside covered~ IMHO, this is as good as it gets~ :)

[macduffy]

Can't see the fe company lending money to the lithium co. The announcement seemed very clear that the intention was to completely separate the two with separate managments. I'm not too sure what the rationale is, other than to allow the separate parts to concentrate on their own operations.

Disc: Not holding but interested.

[Viking]

Nope, can't see that happening myself either~ well at least no more free money~
but well, that's not all bad really~ just that we will have to do our study on each newly created entity on its own merit really.

[Huang Chung]

Any ideas which company the current MD and board members will be joining?

If they all appear to be piling into one over the other, THAT'S the company I'd double up on, and dump the other one.

[shasta]

Any ideas which company the current MD and board members will be joining?

If they all appear to be piling into one over the other, THAT'S the company I'd double up on, and dump the other one.

HC

I'd be keen on who ever PT ends up in, he has a large stake, as does another Director (name escapes me sorry).

I believe PT will stay with ADY, & i'm wanting to retain my holding in both, & top up before the split.

Plenty to like about the future of both, & I'm expecting a spike tomorrow as people try & position themselves for the Lithium.

[spruik]

[quote=Huang Chung;167340[/quote]

Huang Chung, here's your FREE avatar in transparent, so you won't see the areas outside the circle... Just save picture as...

http://www.verplak.net/frog[1].gif

[Huang Chung]

Cheers Spruik.

[Viking]

Guess the market is embracing the announcement quite favourably~
We are up into the 50c region again~

[shasta]

Guess the market is embracing the announcement quite favourably~
We are up into the 50c region again~

With more Iron Ore JORC anns to come & possible broker/investor presentations to highlight the up-coming split, ADY looks good to spike back into the 60's during the lead up the announcement of the split date.

IMO both companies will be under the ruler of bigger companies & both may well be takeover targets.

The chinese would want ADY, for the Iron ore, but not the Lithium & the likes of SQM wouldn't mind getting there dirty paws on Rincon Lithium Ltd.

Wouldn't be surprised to see ADY retest its 67c high before the split.

PT is one shrewd operator & IMO the most progressive MD/CEO on the ASX!

Disc: Topped up @ 43.5c

[Ttops]

Shasta sold some of his free carry shares @ 42.5c today...

Shane - Agree the ann wasn't that flash, & hence the muted response by the market.

Will be able to buy back more ADY again under 40c, so it can continue going sideways for the next quarter :D


With more Iron Ore JORC anns to come & possible broker/investor presentations to highlight the up-coming split, ADY looks good to spike back into the 60's during the lead up the announcement of the split date.

IMO both companies will be under the ruler of bigger companies & both may well be takeover targets.

The chinese would want ADY, for the Iron ore, but not the Lithium & the likes of SQM wouldn't mind getting there dirty paws on Rincon Lithium Ltd.

Wouldn't be surprised to see ADY retest its 67c high before the split.

PT is one shrewd operator & IMO the most progressive MD/CEO on the ASX!

Disc: Topped up @ 43.5c

Two of your quotes Shasta, one month apart: one suggesting it will not do much, in fact stay under 40c and the other after the recent news suggesting it might easily hit the 60's :) You were right last time for about two weeks. :)

[shane_m]

Lithium is the way forward.

The Solar car entered by a Kiwi team Solarfern also uses Lithium batteries in their solar car.

You can find out more at www.solarfern.com and support us.

[STRAT]

Two of your quotes Shasta, one month apart: one suggesting it will not do much, in fact stay under 40c and the other after the recent news suggesting it might easily hit the 60's :) You were right last time for about two weeks. :)Being right for two weeks in this game aint half bad :D

[I.T.Ancient]

Nice announcement

[Ttops]

Strat
The two weeks was a compliment. Shasta has an uncanny way of predicting what will happen.In the short term anyway.

[biker]

The equivalent ex consolidation price is usually lower than pre consolidation so I'm out and looking for a cheaper entry. Also the ore bottle necks don't look that promising.

[shasta]

Strat
The two weeks was a compliment. Shasta has an uncanny way of predicting what will happen.In the short term anyway.

Im no techie & got in just before it went from 21c to 67c in 6 weeks!

If i can do that, any mug can!

A blindman can see the value in ADY, the same way i foresaw the split of the Iron Ore & Lithium businesses!

It's not rocket science, but a bit of research & guess work.

Oh, & my all means email/ring Phillip Thomas - hes VERY approachable!

[STRAT]

Strat
The two weeks was a compliment. Shasta has an uncanny way of predicting what will happen.In the short term anyway.LOL, I thought you were having a go :D but now as Fred Dagg would have said " I concur on that particular one"

[shasta]

Nice announcement

No, the ann with 54% FE was absolutely outstanding!

Looks to be quite a large strike area & with a very high grade (= low cost operation.)

ADY practically just have to dig it out & ship it to China & at a very high profit margin.

Unfortunately ADY won't be around for long as a single entity, it WILL be taken over.

The Iron Ore alone must be worth $1 per share :eek:

[Huang Chung]

I see there are currently bids for a million shares at 48c!

[STRAT]

I see there are currently bids for a million shares at 48c!Hi HC. Im not sure pre market bids hold much credence. Its being traded heavily right now and that bid may be gone before open. yes/no/maybe

[Huang Chung]

Good point Strat....they may just disappear into thin air before the open if some out there is playing silly buggers.

[shasta]

Good point Strat....they may just disappear into thin air before the open if some out there is playing silly buggers.

Someone would be getting a bargin 1,000,000 @ 48c.

Maybe some "positioning" re the split BEFORE it takes off?

Smart i say :D

[Ttops]

Shasta
Any ;) from PT on when the split is likely to occur? Perhaps within two weeks.
;);):D

[shasta]

Shasta
Any ;) from PT on when the split is likely to occur? Perhaps within two weeks.
;);):D

I dont think it will be for a while actually, PT can't say that unless it's announced (refer last ann), so im not going to waste his valuable time.

Just think of it like this, the longer the better & more chance to top up at these cheap prices & have a position for the play ahead.

By the end of 2008 i doubt either ADY or Rincon Lithium will still be listed.

[Ttops]

Right again Shasta. Up and roaring. Punters seem desperate not to be left out. Traders will regret it if they can't re-enter at a cheaper price.

[Viking]

so~ the big decision is out~

PT is going to the newly created Rincon Lithium
and Robert Clarke taking over the ADY

So who guessed correctly this time?

[spruik]

Right again Shasta. Up and roaring. Punters seem desperate not to be left out. Traders will regret it if they can't re-enter at a cheaper price.

Might we use words like " Investers seem keen not to be left out of this fine investment..."

Witnessed a transaction of over 1M at 53.5c, that parcel has gained $10K within 15 minutes.

It's a fine day for AGS. Wonder if it can break through 55c today.

[Damo79]

Right again Shasta. Up and roaring. Punters seem desperate not to be left out. Traders will regret it if they can't re-enter at a cheaper price.

Yep. Regretting I am :( I've ripped myself off about $500 already by selling the other day.

[shasta]

so~ the big decision is out~

PT is going to the newly created Rincon Lithium
and Robert Clarke taking over the ADY

So who guessed correctly this time?

I thought PT might stay with ADY, but this ann is even better.

Expect solid buying in ADY to get the RLL allocation (even though it could be Feb/Mar!) on the back of PT going there.

Don't expect ADY to stick in the 50's for long...

[Ttops]

Might we use words like " Investers seem keen not to be left out of this fine investment..."

Witnessed a transaction of over 1M at 53.5c, that parcel has gained $10K within 15 minutes.

It's a fine day for AGS. Wonder if it can break through 55c today.
Spruik
Actually thought I was being conservative in using desperate for the opening today. More like the feeding frenzy of women at an opening sale ;) Might it be that I'm just not used to the ASX. After all Telecom our biggest share turned over a tad more than ADY today :D

[Ttops]

I thought PT might stay with ADY, but this ann is even better.

Expect solid buying in ADY to get the RLL allocation (even though it could be Feb/Mar!) on the back of PT going there.

Don't expect ADY to stick in the 50's for long...
Shasta
Last time you said that was back in the 30's and it hit the sixties in a few weeks. ;) Might I expect the 80's :D
I hope your predictive run lasts at least another two weeks.

[shasta]

Shasta
Last time you said that was back in the 30's and it hit the sixties in a few weeks. ;) Might I expect the 80's :D
I hope your predictive run lasts at least another two weeks.

Too right after my calls you have 2 weeks, else it'll turn to custard :D

[Viking]

57.5c ~ went as high as 58c today~
looks like we are back into the 60's very soon~

[spruik]

57.5c ~ went as high as 58c today~
looks like we are back into the 60's very soon~

59 and going strong

[OutToLunch]

Go you good thing. News of Phil topping up big time and plenty of updates to come (commencement of Li production at pilot plant, JORC updates for Fe, long term Fe contracts (this month??), independent valuations for RLL and ADY, etc etc not to mention the inevitable rush for shares before the cutoff for entitlements to RLL shares (as there is no IPO for RLL) --- whew. So much good stuff yet to come for this one. :)

[spruik]

OTL, seen you have more shares than me (I'm sooooo jaleous... :) ), won't you let me ride in your new Ferrari - coming soon?

[OutToLunch]

A Ferrari! Now what a waste of good money that would be, when you can have it sitting pretty in ADY shares. :)


Question is, though, when does one get off this phenomenal ride? I had been thinking of exiting (at least partially, maybe fully) next year sometime, but it's hard to pick. My original target when I first bought in back in 2005 was 15 cents! I had a *very* rough crack at "valuing" ADY and RLL independently of each other last week (assuming full production for RLL and ADY at 7.2mtpa) and came up with something like $1.50 per present-day ADY share. So $1 looks easily achievable -- far in excess of what I had first thought possible.

Perhaps once we get more than 5 brokers following it and the hype machine is in full swing I'll quietly slip out the back door...

[spruik]

A Ferrari! Now what a waste of good money that would be, when you can have it sitting pretty in ADY shares. :)


Bummer!



Question is, though, when does one get off this phenomenal ride? I had been thinking of exiting (at least partially, maybe fully) next year sometime, but it's hard to pick.


I'm not much good at valuing companies - but to me it seems fairly valued when Fe production is in full swing and Li starts receiving actual cash flow. Or when there is the inevitable change in SP trend (not likely very soon).

I don't normally worry about tax liabilities but a sell/buy trade can be awfully painful prior to 12 months after the last re-purchase.

[shasta]

59 and going strong

Classic traders pattern today bullish on opening (touching 59c) & retreating at the end of the day back to 54.5c.

Still a great day & 74m volume looks good for the charts :D

[shasta]

Classic traders pattern today bullish on opening (touching 59c) & retreating at the end of the day back to 54.5c.

Still a great day & 74m volume looks good for the charts :D

The surge in volume towards the close, likely indicates a positive ann tomorrow.

ADY showing some strength today as well, seen this before with ADY...

[spruik]

shasta, did you sell in this recent spike (and buy back)? :)

[shasta]

shasta, did you sell in this recent spike (and buy back)? :)

Nope my last transaction with ADY was to top up at 43.5c.

Average cost now up to 30c :D

I'm not selling ADY - as i want as much of Rincon Lithium as possible!

[shasta]

Nope my last transaction with ADY was to top up at 43.5c.

Average cost now up to 30c :D

I'm not selling ADY - as i want as much of Rincon Lithium as possible!

Wow - we get a fantastic ann out on Friday & no one posts a sausage about it? :confused:

A massive contract to the 2nd largest Chinese Iron ore & Steel producer, with all sales from 2008 - 2018 benchmarked to the CRVD prices + the contract states FOB!

Now to ramp up production :cool:

[georgeofthejungle]

Wow - we get a fantastic ann out on Friday & no one posts a sausage about it? :confused:



Unless already expected, the market also didn't think a sausage of it either - down 1.5 for the day.

Will be interesting to see if tomorrow is different.

[shasta]

Unless already expected, the market also didn't think a sausage of it either - down 1.5 for the day.

Will be interesting to see if tomorrow is different.

I think the news didnt get around the market quick enough on Friday, & with good volumes on Friday & the DOW up Friday, expect a strong opening on ADY tomorrow.

I personally want as many shares in ADY i can get pre-split, so should be downramping it :eek:

I just wish i could find more of these companies...:(

[georgeofthejungle]

I think the news didnt get around the market quick enough on Friday, & with good volumes on Friday & the DOW up Friday, expect a strong opening on ADY tomorrow.

I personally want as many shares in ADY i can get pre-split, so should be downramping it :eek:

I just wish i could find more of these companies...:(

IMO the biggest drawback with ADY is that they already have a market cap of $500m. They will need to continue to provide evidence of good income/growth potential going forward to justify a decent appreciation from here. I believe that both the Fe and Li operations do have huge potential but there is also a significant risk factor as well - particularly the Li side.

With the positive economic announcements in the US on Friday I agree that Monday will be positive for ADY

Disc: I have bought into the story and hold a small parcel.

[OutToLunch]

Nice surge up late yesterday on a sudden spike in volume. We could be seeing the high 50s or even low 60s very soon, esp when one stops to think about all the news that's just around the corner: Fe JORC upgrades, 2008 Fe benchmark prices to be set by the majors, Li pilot plant commencing production, announcement of contract for Punta Alcade port construction (essential for the long-term Fe contracts just announced), more details on the upcoming demerger and the 1:1 "free" Rincon Lithium Limited share distribution to *existing* ADY holders (watch this put a rocket under ADY closer to the entitlement cutoff date, whenever that will be), plus Li offtake agreements to come.... phew... are there more??

Why on earth would anyone sell this beauty just now... back this time last year I was backing up the truck at under 10 cents but even then I didn't fully appreciate the potential that ADY now has. I had thought that 25-30 cents by the end of this year would have been pretty good going, but now it's entirely possible that we could be looking at 80c-$1. :)

[shasta]

Nice surge up late yesterday on a sudden spike in volume. We could be seeing the high 50s or even low 60s very soon, esp when one stops to think about all the news that's just around the corner: Fe JORC upgrades, 2008 Fe benchmark prices to be set by the majors, Li pilot plant commencing production, announcement of contract for Punta Alcade port construction (essential for the long-term Fe contracts just announced), more details on the upcoming demerger and the 1:1 "free" Rincon Lithium Limited share distribution to *existing* ADY holders (watch this put a rocket under ADY closer to the entitlement cutoff date, whenever that will be), plus Li offtake agreements to come.... phew... are there more??

Why on earth would anyone sell this beauty just now... back this time last year I was backing up the truck at under 10 cents but even then I didn't fully appreciate the potential that ADY now has. I had thought that 25-30 cents by the end of this year would have been pretty good going, but now it's entirely possible that we could be looking at 80c-$1. :)

OTL

When you think ADY had a forward valuation of $1.20 on it, & we have had more Iron Ore JORC resources & upgrades, & now the forward sales at "market rates" until 2018, plus the increase in Lithium resource & i would imagine a pre-split valuation equivalent of at least $1.50 applies to ADY now.

Of course it's discounted at present but i totally agree, there will be a frenzy into ADY once the demerger date is announced.

Im holding ADY & not trading a single share & will top up on any weakness sub 50c, as i want as much of Rincon as i can get...

[OutToLunch]

No selling from me either, especially this side of the demerger.

The important thing is that ADY's prospects are strongly connected with 1) China's and India's ravenous (and, importantly, internally-driven) demand for iron ore, and 2) demand for Li for high-energy, lightweight batteries (esp with respect to climate change/peak oil).

Both factors are very likely to persist through upcoming market corrections. ADY isn't about finance or manufacturing or retailing (ie sectors that are likely to take a big hit in a market slump) so I'd expect it to be quite resilient when the markets next take a hit. If it wasn't for that, I'd be seriously thinking about taking some off the table around about now.

[shasta]

No selling from me either, especially this side of the demerger.

The important thing is that ADY's prospects are strongly connected with 1) China's and India's ravenous (and, importantly, internally-driven) demand for iron ore, and 2) demand for Li for high-energy, lightweight batteries (esp with respect to climate change/peak oil).

Both factors are very likely to persist through upcoming market corrections. ADY isn't about finance or manufacturing or retailing (ie sectors that are likely to take a big hit in a market slump) so I'd expect it to be quite resilient when the markets next take a hit. If it wasn't for that, I'd be seriously thinking about taking some off the table around about now.

What i particularly like about ADY, is that through extremely proactive management by Phillip Thomas & Co, ADY is well positioned to be PRODUCING both Iron Ore & Lithium at the height of the bull run for those resources.

Iron Ore is enjoying it's time in the limelight now, (Nickel, Copper & Uranium had theres), with Lithium, Rare Earths & Gold still to come IMO...

Remembering of course ADY, will retain the Cobalt/Nickel & Zinc/Lead projects + that weird 10% shareholding in Nilnav Orthopaedics, the hip replacement technology company!

ADY looks set to rally tomorrow, barring any pressure from the DOW.

[Ttops]

What i particularly like about ADY, is that through extremely proactive management by Phillip Thomas & Co, ADY is well positioned to be PRODUCING both Iron Ore & Lithium at the height of the bull run for those resources.

Iron Ore is enjoying it's time in the limelight now, (Nickel, Copper & Uranium had theres), with Lithium, Rare Earths & Gold still to come IMO...

Remembering of course ADY, will retain the Cobalt/Nickel & Zinc/Lead projects + that weird 10% shareholding in Nilnav Orthopaedics, the hip replacement technology company!

ADY looks set to rally tomorrow, barring any pressure from the DOW.
At this rate Shasta you and I won't be buying anymore sub 50 :confused:

[shasta]

32 million turnover with little or no price movement puts ADY in the telstra bracket for turnover...something is brewing :confused: IO stocks are on a slow at times and quick at other times move north. I look forward to the next big hip replacement news..bring it on !!!!:D

ADY tends to rally on Friday's so maybe another ann on the way?

The volume suggests so...:cool:

[Tok3n]

Not looking on good on the Dow today.

Might be some bargain ADY shares on Monday :)

[Ttops]

Shasta
Last time you said that was back in the 30's and it hit the sixties in a few weeks. ;) Might I expect the 80's :D
I hope your predictive run lasts at least another two weeks.
;);) Two weeks is up :)

[shasta]

;);) Two weeks is up :)

...and come Monday we might just get a "top up" opportunity, cos after the next ann we won't again.

[shane_m]

I just put a buy orderer at 20c for ADY for topping up, if the crash is like last time :D